Week 0 LOCKS 🔒 Best Bets, Against The Spread Picks, Moneyline Sprinkles & More! | Cover 3

During football season, I'm always on the road with the Cover 3 podcast. We were recently in Chicago for Big 10 Media Days, catching up with coaches and players, and getting an early look at the teams that everyone will be talking about this season. And you know it wouldn't be a true Chicago trip without a little sightseeing. We made time to check out the bean, grab a couple of Chicago style hot dogs, and of course, have some deep dish pizza. Big 10 Media Days always provides one of my favorite trips of the year, but while I'm out covering the sport I love, my house is sitting empty. That's where Airbnb comes in. While I'm away, I could list my space on Airbnb. It's a great way to make extra money using an asset you already own without having to up into your daily life or treat it like a demanding full-time job, especially during high demand times when big events, festivals, or games are in your area. If you're planning to travel yourself, why not list your space and earn a little extra money? I know I would put it toward my own upcoming vacation to help offset the cost of my flights or upgrade my travel gear. It turns an empty house into an easy opportunity while you enjoy your own time off. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.com/host. Before the season kicks off, everyone's making predictions. Who wins the division? Who makes the playoffs? Who's lifting the trophy? On CalShi, America's number one prediction market platform, you can trade those predictions in a live market. Will Buffalo win the AFC championship? Buffalo is currently trading at 14%, meaning a $100 trade would pay out $590 if they win their conference. On CalShi, your trading gets peers in a live market, and as the probability changes, you can buy in and out. Download the CalShi app and use code fan to get up to $500 in bonus credits when you trade $25. CalShi, trade on anything, 18 and up only, restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. CalShi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see CalShi.com/regulatory. Welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast with your host, Chip Patterson, Tom Furnnelli, Danny Cannell, and Bob Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover 3 podcast. And welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast. Here on CBS Sports, that's Tom Furnnelli, that's Danny Cannell, that's Bob Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson, coming to you live at youtube.com/couple3. Everywhere you get your podcasts on the man, thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat. Hey, hey, hey, the Cover 3 tailgate, where they are rocking and rolling. They're talking sicko modes. They're talking locks. You know, it is finally arrived week zero locks. We have some of our very favorite picks from this weekend slate. Now a little bit of everything and because the slate is a little bit smaller, we'll at least offer a word. We went through the big game breakdown on Tuesday, but at least a hunch, a lean. Everyone's going to want a little bit of taste of the action. And we always want to be there for you. Christian, out there saying week zero is all sicko mode. I mean, fair. Baby, you know, we got one top 25 team in action. I would say there's an ACC title race implications. That's not sicko. Is that a non-coverage game? I think I screwed that up on on Tuesday. No, it is a conference game this year. It is a conference game this year. Okay. Last year was a non conference game. This is the boy I have with this eight and nine game schedule. Like normally in my brain, I'm like, okay, they're playing nine AC games. One of these is a non-conference. I remember which one it is, but now since some teams are playing eight, some things are playing nine. It's annoying. It's an extremely professional operation. You boys have going there in the ACC. Just jealous of everything that you do. No, it's more, listen, this is like TIO. Okay, Tom. This is ACC scheduling and tiebreaker procedures is a little bit more like when you get relief if you're standing on the sprinkler head on the edge of the green, you know, get the driver. Let's get out there and let's get a clean drop on this. Don't touch my driver. Let's go. Before we get to our week zero locks, it continues to bubble. It continues to evolve. Since we last got with you on Tuesday, we've gotten official statements and but then also rules and then also the threat of punishments. The big 10, the SEC, the big 12, all coming out against X NFL players coming to college football. Now, some of these conferences are also going to look at the NBA and the WNBA and extend this to more sports. If the conferences haven't yet, they've been reported that they are going to begin discussing those types of bands. This is, as I've sort of justified it in my head, a pro player band in college sports. Danny Cannell, this is conference by conference. This is not NCAA-wide. I'm not sure if we should make anything of that, though certainly some people have. Where are you at with this? Are there any instances that feel unfair? We've got a lot more to navigate before like Texas Tech, for example. Tommy Castellanos, who's eligible, who's not trying to figure out all that is a little bit difficult. Where are you at with this current evolution, ongoing story of how these conferences are reacting to try to prevent these pro players coming back to college? I think it's good. I don't think anybody wants to see it. It just feels icky. That's probably the best way to describe. It just doesn't feel like college football that we know and love and yet we know players are making millions. We've seen players moving all over the place, but it feels like this was the bridge that was too far to cross, to have players in training camps with the NFL and then be able to come back. I think it's an easy win for the conferences to say, no, we're not going to let this happen, but I do feel somewhat for the players that were screwed over in this situation because like it or not, and I don't like the optics of them going to the NFL, but a lot of these players didn't know that this was going to be an option on the table. So they, if they would have known, maybe they wouldn't have declared for the NFL draft. They wouldn't have taken the option, they would have come back to college anyway. So I feel for them, but I think this is an easy win and an easy road to take for the conferences to say, no, no, no, there's no way you're going to the NFL and coming back because everyone's going to be in agreement. Everyone's going to cheer and applaud. It's a way to go. We want to keep it amateur. I use air quotes, but I think that's probably an easy win for the conferences. I mean, first of all, I don't want to see pro players in college sports. I think when we talked about making a skinny bill, this was one of the ones, like one of the core items of the skinny bill that you could argue is core to your fundamental business concept of running college sports, right? Guys, like, did you see the report today that, where's the set here? Let me check and find it. Hold on. Okay. So this is from some guy named Burgess Everett who meets like a politics reporter. Oh, new NFL NBA players are coming back to college sports is fueling momentum to pass the bipartisan Protect College Sports Act, which bars professional athletes from play college sports. Intimly spokesman says outrageous changing some minds on the hill quote, the events over the past week have been helpful to us to drive home the point. You don't need to take our word for it or the conferences word for it. This piece of legislation gives senators the ability to fix this problem for their constituents. Jack that this, I mean, it was in the first statement from the SEC. It was in the first statement from the SEC when they didn't have their rules in place. They said, this is why we need the Protect College Sports Act. It's from the get go. We had Joey McGuire on the, I texted you guys yesterday. Yeah. McGuire came on the show and I asked him what he thought about it and why it wasn't fixed and why the NCAA screwed this up. And he went with Buds there. He's like, I think they might have done this on purpose just to get the bill passed. Also, when some of these courts shoot down the rulings from the SEC in the big 10, that's going to be more fuel because I don't think the SEC in the big 10 actually want to get into the business of self governance, right? You don't? No. The SEC liability. Is that the liability part? And it's a huge pain in the S. The SEC used to have like SEC violation investigators like back in the 90s. And they realized like, it's a lot better business if we don't knock on each other. So let's get rid of this guy, right? Dennis Dodd was one of the top 100 college football media personalities on BLT stats list. He's been really big on the liability portion of this that these conferences talk a big game, but that at the end of the day, they don't want medical. They don't want any of the liability. Like they want the headshot stuff that's coming. Like listen, they they are more than happy to exist in the NCAA as long as the NCAA can be a shield for any of the potential medically related lawsuits. Chip, you are never going to make the top 100 if you keep calling BLT stats. Okay. He's a nice day. PMT stats who put out the list is one of the many who is able to donate for our St. Jude's fantasy football fundraiser. So shout out to him. He's in my league. Oh, do I need to register for that? No. I mean, Danny are coding a team apparently. So you did not read the email at all. You did not read the email. You needed to respond to have anything going on. No, I did. I did respond. I said, I will play. I'm not going to commit to doing a bunch of DMs every week because I know I'm going to forget to do that. So I don't want to be like, yes, and Bud's going to DM you a bunch when I won't. Like I know me, I know I'm not going to remember to do that. No, yourself. Good bot on that. Yeah, that's the next good idea. Bud bots summarize the email and then responded for me. I'm not surprised that, you know, these latest things are going to get Congress to get more support for the bill. I, I'm not ruling it out, but I'm not buying in on the NCAA did this on purpose. We've spent years talking about how incompetent that organization is. So I'm not going to start pretending that they're just playing chess while everybody else is playing checkers. But I, I do think that this could spur more momentum towards it, but I also, I'm not sure that's a great thing because as I've long said, I think the Protect College Sports Act is trying to solve too many problems that don't actually exist. When I think that just simply having this five for five, which clearly creates a little bit of a weird situation, the speed bump right now that has been magically addressed without the help of Congress, would solve a lot of the actual problems that the schools and the conferences are dealing with. And I will also notice that the ACC, the one league that can't get its conference schedule, right? And the one league that doesn't know which games are conferences or not is also the one league that hasn't actually passed anything like the big 12 SEC, the big 10 half yet. So what are you guys doing down there? Come on, is that basketball? I don't think so because I mean, Arizona's got a bunch of euros, big 12 past it, like Illinois's got a bunch of euros, the big 10 past it, the SEC. I mean, I, I, I just, I just think the ACC is the slowest one of the four. That's really all I think. With focusing on the micro instead of the macro, is it fair that Tommy Castellanos gets to dance this line when he was in a mini camp, but because he was undrafted and because he did not sign a contract, now he's good to go. See, I really don't think of Tommy Castellanos as a pro player, regardless of position. So funny, but you understand what I'm saying? Like this is like the four Hudson, isn't that kid of Texas? He was in camp with the Cowboys and he playing for Texas. There's a few of them that it just feels kind of like some of these guys are going to skirt it just because they didn't get a contract. They weren't like, just that's where the optics of it. I do feel bad for some of these players that didn't know this was an option. I mean, Trinidad Chamble is mental health. I mean, they're like, they're, we gotten, we tugged on a lot of threads here, you know? Look, I, I know like we follow this stuff closely. I'm just over it. These got, they have some good players. You have no great players coming back. Like, you know, just let me know who's going to be on the roster. If they're playing or not, I'll plug into the model and let's talk ball. Like I'm just, I'm moving on from this at this point. That's also, I think it's all fake. That's what that's all bud says. So that's what we'll do. All right, coming up on the other side, getting our eyes ahead to the locks for week zero and more next. The cover three podcast is proudly brought to you by our friends at Homefield, the undisputed leader in premium vintage collegiate apparel. It's made by and for true college football fans. Forget about cheap materials or boring low effort designs. Homefield obsessively researches every single detail. We're talking the way it feels and the way it looks from ultra soft fabrics and perfect fits to iconic retro logos. Homefield delivers gear that truly defines your game day. They carry unique designs for over 180 partner schools offering everything from cozy crew necks and hoodies to retro style jackets and top tier hats. Plus, they just launched the stadium polo inspired by those bold vibrant game day vibes. I already grabbed the stadium polo for myself and my family is already eyeing their incredible retro crew necks because the designs are just unreal. 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Backed by 40 years of scientific research, it supports joint mobility, manages exercise related inflammation and reduces post workout muscle soreness. Best of all, it's NSF certified for sport, meaning it's tested for roughly 290 band substances and trusted by major professional sports organizations, less time feeling sore, more time doing what you love. Omega XL sport extra strength recovery. If you're serious about performance, training and recovery, check out Omega XL sport today at GNC or GNC dot com. Hey, before we jump back into the show, let's take a quick break, but not just any break. This is a refreshing break with Snapple. We all know about Snapple's iconic real facts. So let's take a minute to go over some of my faves. Snapple Real Fact 2064. The first college football game broadcast on TV was on September 30, 1939. Snapple Real Fact 1896, the tradition of playing football on Thanksgiving originated with college football in 1876. Snapple Real Fact 1983. The first player drafted to play pro football never played in the league. Snapple Real Fact 1119. The Grand Canyon could hold about 900 trillion footballs. That's a lot of footballs. So grab a Snapple, take a second and enjoy the moment because let's be honest, this might be the most refreshing part of your day. Snapple, make your break more interesting. Alright, now let's get back to the show. Back here on the Cover 3 podcast and it brings me so much joy to ask this question for the first time in the 2026 regular season. Gentlemen, week zero's on deck. You already lug it up. Yes, sir. Since 2005, the under and games between services at this is 40, 9 and 1. Give me an over and this one as well. A little two for one special. I was sick our last week y'all were watching the good games. I was live bedding the hill at a ULM. My blue plate special five star locks are coming. Five star master lock it. I'm living and dying every point, every cover. From the locking chair to your eyes and ears, smaller slate is obviously. Normally, this would be the time. If you're new here, we would tackle some of some of the big headline games in the first section, then open it up and allow everyone to take it wherever they would like to go on the board. A little bit of force feed, nothing wrong with that, each of your vegetables. We start speaking of vegetables out there in Ireland, where North Carolina and TCU are set square off. So let's jump right in. Who's got a lock? Just me. I do that one. Oh, okay. Good. Go Tom. Oh, wow. I get the first lock of the year. Wow. Oh, man. Not so much pressure on me here. I first I'll start. I think that this board for a week, zero, the actual games that we have this week are far more interesting than a lot of the week zero games that we have had in recent years. There are some legitimately interesting games here, both for like the stakes with an ACC conference game, having new teams that have moved up to the FBS in like North Dakota State and Sacramento State and just close kind of matchups with a couple blowouts likely sprinkled in. That said, I do not love much on the board this week. I've got a few plays. I'm not in love with any of them, but the first one I'm going to go with is I'm taking, let's see what number is the best number I can get it right now. If it's moved down since yesterday, it has not. All right. Give me the under 47 in North Carolina, TCU. I think that a, the weather could be impactful in this one. If we get windy kind of, you know, British open conditions that could affect the kicking game and special teams. So feel goals could be a little bit more difficult. I believe that TCU will be moving at a slower tempo than we're used to seeing from TCU. There's going to be far more under center kind of action in that offense. And I think that, you know, with with a new quarterback in a new offensive coordinator in the first game of the year, when you have to fly across an ocean to play it, there could be some, you know, might not be the smoothest operation. I also expect that North Carolina while they will improve on offense this year probably won't be the smoothest operation. And I look at that defense. I think North Carolina, the one thing they were very good at last year was preventing explosive plays and they were good at playing red zone roulette. So they could hold TCU to some fuel goal attempts. And again, could be impacted. by the weather. And I think TCU's defense, while not spectacular, kind of matches up pretty okay-ish with what I think North Carolina is going to be trying to do against it. So I don't think this is going to be a very high scoring kind of fun back and forth game. I think it's going to be kind of slower-moving, kind of rock-fighty. So under 47. Like partial lock agreement here with you. I'm actually going to take the under first half. All the 24s are gone. This is kind of the thing we were complaining to each other about and pretty like these lines have been out for like five months, guys, on this week zero stuff. So I don't have like 20 edges this week. Like on power ratings, like everything's pretty much like banged into form. I do think there's like a gameplay play here. Weather slightly worse in the first half, by the way, more like 60% chance of rain 40 in the second half. Wind is really like not much different first to second. Like if you're going to the game, it's going to get real windy after the ball game. It looks like. So look, I think with TCU losing fields of the safety, right? And how well Patrino is known to absolutely just screw with the heads of safeties and beat him over the top on that play action stuff. I think TCU will probably try to lightbox this early and see just how good this Carolina run game that Carolina feels like they can lean on actually is, right? Let me be explosive like Tom said when he's talking about North Carolina's defense, I think you'll see some of the same from that TCU defense at least early on. On what could be a wet field because you're expecting rain in the morning. Like I don't think you want those safeties playing real close up in the box and having to change direction a bunch. Keep everything in front of you. You know, like, you know, make Patrino those guys with Billy Edwards, which I think is like the safer, more adult choice at quarterback. But I don't know if he's like the more high upside guy there. It's a lot of talking for a first half under, but this is kind of the handicap on it for me. Also, one thing I'm really curious about like in talking to various people in the sport over the summer, like they had a lot of they took notice that like Indiana would not break the huddle until like the green dot was off pretty much. And I wonder if some of these teams that were in the middle as far as pace decide to go to one of the edges, right? Are we going to like hurry up and go faster or are we going to like like crank the tempo down a good bit? And I'm curious to see if that is something that happens across the sport. We already think TCU is going to go slower. But what if they go even slower than what Samus did last year, right? The new offensive coordinator. So we already know they want to have more multiple tight endsets there. I do think Caroline on line of scrimmage like has real beef, which also lends to Tom's theory about them, you know, maybe light boxing a little more. I see they can handle the run game up front without having to load the box up. And man, I got I have a hard time thinking that Caroline is going to kind of sling the ball a ton. Even though I know like last year, they were so run heavy on early downs between those a guy that will throw on early downs. So give me the first half under 23 and a half. And also had a place called today because our buddy, the dentist, let's go. Let's go. So if if you're an IT guy in the state of Tennessee, my buddy actually needs a little bit of help because even though he owns this practice, the firewall blocks porn and gambling sites on his phone. So we had to like go turn his Wi-Fi off so you could pull up the odds here. But he picked this one because you could have just said gambling. You might have outed him on the rest. I'm using his words. All right. So he's like, I don't really like much this week, but this does give you a chance to brag about my golf trip over the summer to Ireland. And like if we get some British open style conditions here, you know, that could be fantastic. So he also likes under 23 and a half. He thought he found a 24. If his local guy has a 24, that is fantastic news for him. But for the show, we'll give him under 23 and a half as well. Couple of some some unders on the board. I mean, like what's what's the what's the way to attack this Danny? You got it. You're going to throw a curveball. They'll all speak. No, no, no, let the children sing me and Tom and Tom on the same blade. I was just looking because I thought I saw 47 and a half, but I don't see any more. So I'll take the 47. A lot of the same things you guys are talking about, Gordi, Gordi, Sam is taking over the offense. Everyone's talking about how they're going to be more balanced, run the football. As much as I like Jayden Craig, the quarterback transferring in there kind of his first game at this level kind of want to see it. The only reason I would not take the first half and I agree with the weather is supposed to be nasty. Bobby Petrino is a pretty good play caller. Like does he dial something up? Do they pop a big one early last year in this game? Remember North Carolina? Now that was not with Bobby Petrino. Remember, they went right down the field against TCU. It was like, oh man, they're off to the playoffs. And then it went all downhill from there. But I do think this will be a lower scoring game. I think both of them just want to do what it takes to win. Talking about TCU's secondary issues. They try to keep everybody in front of them, but I'll take the under with Tom on the total game. I'm not much of an Aaron Sorkin guy necessarily, but he certainly has his accolades. Maybe you like the Cohen brothers. Maybe you're a traditionalist, more of a William Goldman, more of a Bobby Petrino guy. I'm talking about script writers. I'm talking about people that are going to get this thing lined up and ready to go. Tar heals first half plus six and a half. This is going to be the best that you're going to get from North Carolina's offense. They got no tape to be able to break down while Andy Avalot is still the TCU defensive coordinator. They've switched out some things, but North Carolina for they've got all that tape of the way that they defended certain things that they wanted to do last season. You mentioned the safety issue. I do think that we could get a play over the top, a big splash play. I think that working as a puzzle piece with the idea of a first half under, we might only need 10 points to be able to get there. Honestly, my first handicap breaking this thing down was North Carolina first half team total over nine and a half. That's just not available right now. The best thing I can do to be able to follow that hunch is to be able to maybe go and grab that North Carolina first half plus six and a half because I think that the not having any idea of what Billy Edwards plus Bobby Patrino will do will give North Carolina an advantage that will allow them to score twice in the first half. And I think they've given the conditions of the game that should be enough to stay within the first half number of six and a half. I have incredible news for Danny and I. There is a 47 and a half out there. There you go. Let's go. We want to know on the season already. Hey, say, listen, you can't pay your mortgages of CLV. All right. It's just because you get in the best number. We still got we still got to hit it. Still got to hit it. Any other just we've talked about this game a ton, but anything else left unsaid or any late thoughts. The field does drain well. It's it's a Viva stadium in Ireland. They're used like that. It is it is used to wet conditions and being able to still have world class events on that field. That is worried about the lead is the wind. The wind for kicking throwing things of that nature. All right. Let's keep it rocking and rolling on into the afternoon. 3 p.m. Eastern time. You can watch this one on NBC USC getting things rolling against San Jose State. Who's got a lock? I'm not going to touch this. It got bit out of range. I mean, like the the over was something, but like it was it's moved four points. So here's my notes from the gambling perspective. Last year we saw Jay and Maiva cover 36 against Missouri State in a 60 point win. And then they followed it up by covering 29 points against Georgia Southern in a 39 point win. They beat Utah State 48 to nothing as a 29 point favorite in week two in 2024. I'm not locking it up. I just wouldn't be begging USC to not cover this. Like if you have to choose between USC and San Jose State recent history in the last two seasons and matchups like this have showed that Lincoln's going to utilize the opportunity to shoot off some fireworks and get the people going. You saw Terry Anderson not on the death chart. I saw three true freshman starters on offense. Mark Bowman was the one we were looking for, but then also a couple wide receivers to no kinds. Also got an or designation. I youth movement. We said in big game breakdown. It's I think that they're going to let everybody to freshman stars on defense too. It's a air. It's exciting. You know, the number one recruiting class can be put to action right away. I'm Anderson's out according to Austin and the tailgate. I'm not betting anything in this game. If you are looking to bet something in this game, I will say that one thing to keep in mind is San Jose State. They play this week, but they've also got Fresno State next week. So, you know, and they've got USC has somewhat of an easy ramp up to when things get very difficult for them like with San Jose State Fresno, Louisiana, and then it road trip to Rutgers. I don't know how metal, you know, how hard USC is going to be going in these games. So it comes to those big spreads. I mean, there might just be an athlete advantage. Maybe just play some first halves is what I'm saying. Yeah. Okay. I see what you I'll tell you what you don't want to be doing. You don't want to be sweating. You don't want to be spending the late afternoon into the evening. You know, like you're trying to balance the next game that we're going to talk about, which might actually be interesting and have some implications. You don't want to have to also be sweating covering in this big number, but it is something that we're going to talk about. Lincoln Riley has been able to do successfully covering big spreads against lesser opponents in these kind of non-conference opportunities. I was looking, 'cause I was looking at like their team total. It's like they could have messed around with that. - 50 and a half? - 50 and a half. Like, I don't know if I want a bet on a 50 burger. It just feel, yeah. - Blood and I broke this down two days ago on CBS Sports Network and we were both touch in 50 and I think I gave 51 as a score prediction with the idea that it's like, you Lincoln will be like, yeah, got to put 50, got to see a 50 on the scoreboard. But I wouldn't necessarily throw American dollars at that. All right, keeping things moving, 330 PM Eastern time out in Charlottesville. That's where you're going to get in C state on the road against UVA. I'll let you, we broke this down extensively in big game breakdown. Now I want to hear the picks. Who's got a lot? - All right. - Under. - What's the best on the board here? 53 and a half. So if you looked at, I saw Jackie Franchoulli tweet out the UVA death chart. Like, good number of injuries to that offense. One guy who's healthy though is Beau Pervilla. Or Pervilla? - Pervilla. - Pervilla. - Pervilla, okay. - Yeah. Thought so, I always messed that one up. If you looked at him at Missouri in the nine full games he played, he averaged like 10 rushes of game. They have like Norfolk state on deck. UVA just needs to get out of there with the win. They have that like very veteran, six-thier offensive lineman, like the six-thier offensive line guys there. New quarterback, probably not as good at receiver this year as they were last year, like Gibson's decent. But we'll see what Coleman does. They got a couple of other pieces they got an eye on. But like the one thing I think is pretty bankable from UVA is they're going to run the hell out of Beau. Right, like they need to get this win. And I would expect that is a little bit lower tempo. I don't think like with, you know, some of your receivers out, new QB, you're gonna go in up tempo. This thing like crazy. And then on the flip side, you know, last year, like Bayley tore them up. Like that game was 35-31 last year. And all these new offensive line pieces for the pack. I'm curious to see like, are they fully meshed? I also think like both coordinators probably coming into this game thinking, all right, like the company explosives will be allowed last year. Like that, that can't be happening again. So much like the handicap I think on, on UNC UVA. Now, granted, like you can want to stop explosives and not be able to do it. But I do think probably a little slower tempo from UVA and heavy, heavy run game from UVA until his NC State defense proves he can stop the run, which maybe it can, maybe it can, but under 53 and a half for me. And I'll make this my cover three star lock for the week, which is a new thing. Did I do that right? We said we're going to wait until next week. OK, OK. Spoiler alert. There's a change coming into the lock spot this year. All right, well, then I don't count for that against. All right. But you like it a lot. I don't know, I don't know, like maybe it can. I mean, we're making the rules here. Right. You want to save it 'til week one? But no, but gets it. Do we, do people like to slug through all this like, you can see like governance, legislature, all this? Let's give him some fun this week. All right. All right. Do we just name it too? The cover three star lock? The cover three star lock of the week. So it's mid. It's a jack. It's, let me, let me, I'll explain it to the listeners. Like every lock we do is technically, we bet it like with one unit. The cover three star lock of the week, we each get one per week is worth three units. So it's just the game that you have far more faith in than the others, and it also just kind of adds a little intrigue to the season long competition because there could be some big swings in the standings based on these. Can you choose not to use it? Yeah. I don't think you have to use one. Okay, then I don't want to use it. Okay. Well, there you go. Which is why we said we'll save 'em. (laughing) I'm, I'm a sure, so. All right. That's about it. Appreciate it. I gotta play in this game. Yeah, that means a lot. Bud mentioned that offensive line. John Gruden had a little viral clip that went out there because he was saying how do they have a fifth year senior, two sixth year seniors, and two seventh year seniors on the offensive line. That's what they go. Veteran laden beef up front, which is a good thing. But quarterback matters more than the beef up front. I like CJ Bailey. I think this game is really big for both these teams. I know it's not in Brazil and it's in Charlottesville, which is a tough place to play, as I have evidence firsthand. But I don't think it's impossible to win there. Give me NC State in the four and a half. Give me Dave Doran's defense, getting improved. I kind of want to see what Bo Pribs does with this new offense. If you're right, if they slow it down, I could see a field goal type game, which is good enough to give me the cover. I'll take the wolf pack in the four and a half. First of all, you guys keep pronouncing his name and correct it as B, Priboulet. That is how you pronounce it. I've got a lock agreement with somebody. And that somebody is bud. Let's go. I am also on the under. I don't know if that makes you want to make it your cover three star lock of the week again or not. So I don't know. Sort of, okay. I will, you went over a lot of my reasoning for it as well. I just don't think it's gonna be that high scoring of a game, game script wise, but there's another stat like I was looking this up. And this is very interesting. In the last three years, all right. There have been 21 conference games in the first game of the season for teams. So whether it's week zero or week one, the under is 17 and four in those games. That's like, it might just be a ton of noise, but there's also I, when I was looking this stuff up, that was something that kind of stood out to me. So it just made me like this pick a little bit more. So I was trying to figure out, you know, when you're starting the season in a conference game, you're probably going to be a little more conservative than you would be against some G 16 that you're favored by 30 against. So yeah, under, what was it, 53 and a half are getting? Yeah, yeah, under 53 and a half. First half under 27 and a half. Glad we mentioned last year's game. There were 43 pass attempts for Chandler Morris. And as bud detailed extensively, we are expecting a very different approach in terms of the way that we're using the quarterback. And this was really a Hollywood Smothers game last year, more than anything. It was tied for the season low for pass attempts for CJ Bailey. It was just Hollywood Smothers was ripping off all these explosive runs, like 200 some odd yards with a couple touchdowns. So if I think that we're losing Hollywood Smothers and Duke Scott, I think is the player to watch in this game because of the high standard that set there because of what he's going to need to be able to be against a Virginia defense that is probably just going to sit back and dare some of these new wide receivers that have come in and some of these new skill players that have come in to try to go and beat them. At 27 and a half, we got 14, 13 and 17, 10 as win positions. Also as long as I get that, I can cash out. If this thing does get a little bit silly, like it did last year with a couple scores late, I like the style handicap of it. And while Deskitchen says that they want to be aggressive, my thought is that they want to be aggressive by just running the football with they've got a deep, deep running back room along with Bo Probula. So I'll go first half under 27 and a half. Any other words? - To your point, Scott is a, Scott is a different profile than Hollywood. - Smothers, yeah. - Scott's like five, 10 to, we're like two, 15, like he's thick. I don't know if he's quite as explosive, but he's kind of more of a hammer. - Nope. And it looked, and there are awesome stories about the way that he handles his business and the leadership that he brings to this team. But I need to see how those legs turn and how he's able to get away from defenders 'cause that was a big part of being able to help NC State win was those explosive plays in the run game. - I got an issue with the tailgate here. I mean, they're saying chip needs to get a haircut. Like he just got his yearly haircut. Like he looks sharp. - Oh Jesus. - Come on. - You never mind. We're not doing any, I'm not in 18 in this nonsense right now. We got business, we got locks. Coming up on the other side, more of our locks for week zero and more. - Next. (upbeat music) - Back here on the cover three podcast, so far on the board, bud is locking up TCU UNC first half under 23 and a half and the NC State Virginia under 53 and a half. I've got North Carolina in the first half plus six and a half and the NC State Virginia first half under 27 and a half. Danny's on the TCU UNC under 47 and a half and the Wolfpack plus four and a half, then Tom is going with the TCU UNC under 47 and a half and the NC State UVA under 53 and a half, which brings our attention to Tallahassee. Florida State, New Mexico State, who's got a lot. Bio-billion, right? - Yes, bio-billion, absolutely. - Lay the big number. There is not a team across this slate that needs a win and a big win more than Florida State needs to win this game. Mike Norvell, the hottest of hots. this entire off season, he has to be exhausted from hearing everybody say what week is going to get fired? They need to generate some confidence going into SMU on Monday night football last year a couple of those early games That was after they beat Alabama, but they did put up 77 against East Texas A&M 66 against Ken State Diego Pavia is not walking through the door for the Mexico State Ashton Daniels, you need to get his confidence up get him feel for the system get some of these pieces Continuity filled Florida State rolls. I mean, even the two and 10 Knowles that were dead covered 31 points against Charleston Southern in late November You mentioned those two games right there. You beat Kent State 66 10 East Texas A&M 77 to 3 both favored by 40 plus points in that win They beat Southern Miss by 53 as a 31 point favorite in early 2023 They did not cover against North Alabama, but there was a lot of circumstances to that game Jordan Travis's injury among them And then they still almost covered winning that game. I think by 40 some odd points. I mean outside of the Memphis loss Two years ago three years ago two years ago This is a Florida State Mike Norville program that in these games against lesser opponents runs the dagum score up. So I'll lay the points I mean that was kind of a Malzahn thing last year in my opinion, right? Like the like Malzahn trick plays He was like he was like the bag out. That was a known kind of vanity thing like Malzahn once hit like once Open up the paper and see like who's the leader in total offense and and point to one not as the OC and like like You at UCF you do the same thing. He would kill you know these bad teams. I Don't really want to lay it here And it's not because I'm down on this team It's just because I think that Daniel's legs are kind of a part of the Of what they're gonna need to do in their bigger games and obviously they have a pretty big one on deck with SMU coming to town On Monday night. So I I'm just gonna watch. I'm not seeing like a huge edge here Just I mean we're able to teach like guerrillas mice All sorts of animals how to do things but for some reason our Daniel canal Cannot learn to stop believing in Florida State like yeah, I feel like you're doing this to yourself But like I didn't fight it. I know I'm not fighting it But I'm just it's like you go through all this offseason where it's like And then week zero comes down. It's like hell yeah I'm gonna pick for a state not only to win and cover so like you're setting yourself up for disappointment And it just it hurts me. I don't want to see you get hurt again, and I'm just worried. That's all I don't want to get the knolls. I would bet him first half because I think the Mexico State's gonna be heavy run I think Florida State's backup DeLiaman are really sketch like like Danny talked about how important it is for them Stay healthy a couple episodes ago. So and I agree with that like a hundred percent If New Mexico State packs it in and just starts to like runs with clock in the second half and Florida states like Yeah, we're pretty thin at DeLiam probably need to get these starters out of here and not not get them cuplocked You know, I could see them picking up some first downs and grinding this thing away. No Look, New Mexico State should not have double digit points in this game If you got any damn respect for yourself, you don't let them score like more than one touchdown and that's it And then you should be able to score more than 40 points Your top half like your top half team in talent in the ACC When it gets New Mexico State You got to go out that you you need to put a score of more than 40 on the board and you need to keep them from getting to 10 I mean, they're pretty trustworthy outfits, so I can't discreet there. All right. Okay. All right Do you believe the answer is no Coming from the the Southern I mean we're actually wait a second time out of second We got the chat trolling me now. It's not like I'm picking them to win the national championship We're picking them just to cover against It's not that hard. Come on. I mean, this is even under the Kirby number. What's the Kirby number 38? Yeah, like that's that's that's like your Kirby the Mendoza lot the Kirby line is like you get above 38 Oh Kirby don't like getting dizzy, you know, like they're gonna keep this thing at a certain level You know, I'm 30 and a half let's go What was the game that Kirby and this is derailing it big but like the chat might remember There was a game where we had figured out the Kirby used to work for this posing head coach and like kind of gave him a star or something like that and like oh There's no chance like George is gonna bear it like they just. Oh, it's like a pack died like I thought it was Shane Beamer I thought it was a Georgia South Carolina game, right? No, this is the one where like it was it was it was a it was like a huge spread We're like hold on like he used to work for this guy. They're friendly. There's no incentive for him to embarrass him and then right and so He just packed it in yeah Samford there we go. Yeah, there we go. God tailgates incredible. What do you? Yes, yeah, and so yeah Don't lay even though it's 50 and a half in the model the model don't know Kirby ain't trying to do that to Samford right all right then History on CBS Sports Network out in Fargo we discussed it in big game breakdown. I truly think that this will be Yeah, I think this will be one of if not the best atmosphere of week zero that what know what we are going to see from North Dakota state fans Getting to host their first FPS game against as you mentioned, but a familiar opponent from their own championship contention history The opportunity that's here for them to be able to make a statement to the nation It I'm very very excited and obviously you know I would we'd be tuning into the broadcast anyway with so many of our friends working it but to be able to Get to see this moment between these two teams both conference title contenders in their own right North Dakota state is favor that home My question is who's got a lock? I do let's go For a lot of the reasons you just mentioned this is gonna be an electric environment You know like this place is always buzzing for to begin with they love their their football team But now for the first FPS game as a program at home in the Fargo dome I like Jacksonville state. I just don't know if they're gonna be ready for it right off the jump Give me North Dakota state first half minus three and a half those boys are gonna come out fire and they're gonna come out hot They're gonna take advantage of that crowd and then maybe everybody kind of settles down after half time Make some adjustments and Jacksonville states able to get back into this game with that first half I think they're gonna be overwhelmed boys bison minus three and a half first half Good luck. I Like three and a half good number strong handicap Anybody else No, I'm not on the segment at least It's so funny, but we thought we sort of hinted at this a little bit This just seems to be one of those ones that's dancing around people are beating the table telling you like no There's way too much hype Jacksonville state is gonna be like they are being overlooked They are be like this is gotta be the one, but then it's if this line moves to six and a half now We're just disrespecting the vibes of that atmosphere, right? So I I don't have one strong sense one way or the other I feel better about understanding the way that North Dakota state is gonna handle It's business Nathan Hayes stepping into the quarterback role after being a backup for multiple years I kind of think they're gonna protect them. They've got a deep offensive line rotation defensive line rotation linebackers are good I think North Dakota state gets in there does a lot of ground and pound could be a lower scoring game Was the one thing that I looked at but no official lock from me, but very very fired up to see it Yeah, Kaden Creel's a runner-two great point in the tailgate. So clock could be a mm-mm-mm-mm-mm move and In this one again check it out CBS Sports Network five thirty p.m. Eastern time start you get do you guys know the voice North Dakota state? No, the radio call Jordan is though What Tom is though Tom's brother. I don't know if it's his brother. We didn't ask him that but we had him on the radio show this morning It was great. I want to take North Dakota state, but I'm gonna pass on it I do agree with what you guys are saying. It's like one of those The atmosphere is gonna be electric. I also remember them and they were tired The fans were tired of going to the national championship every year. They were ready for a challenge. Now you're gonna get it At Tim politics thirty twenty six and three, you know, it was just been crushing teams Jordan's on the call right is this rich Adam and Jordan. Yeah Adam Brennan Jordan, Georgia rich waltz Should be a good good squad there CBS Sports Network to be able to check it out. Well Jordan be wearing like a buffalo skin coat She could she might have one Oh, the pit's gonna be on point. Yeah, the fit will be on point before we get her in trouble on social media We'll get a fit check for sure before before we put Jordan in the cross areas of PETA. Let us let us Let us not do that Okay, elsewhere in Palo Alto Hawaii gonna be arriving to take on Stanford in year one of the Tavita Pritchard era This is another one that's had some attention We mentioned Ashlock expected to be the leading receiver. He was out early I was not able to get confirmation one way or the other from Those around Timmy Chains program in terms of what the expectations are for Saturday Stanford I We know Davis we know Davis Warren's gonna be the quarterback Michael Ford's a very very good running back. I'm I'm still going to, this is going to be a sit back with the notepad out, learn something Saturday for me. I'm not sure if anybody else has a strong handicap on this game, but who's got a lot? No, but it, why you got bet recently, I think that's the side of what I've taken, but I'm, I'm just watching this one. Same. Same. It was just I had five and a half and it got bet down to three and a half. Yeah. Yeah. And it got, did it get to six at one point? It might have. Yeah. I don't. I don't know. Lost home last year on the island now, you know, and it's a must win for, for to be to bridge or throw. Oh my gosh. Goodness. And the problem is, and that's something that I have done and we'll do again, because I don't learn from my lessons often, I will, I will make a pick saying, well, you can't lose. I can't lose Saturday. This is it. So there's only, but so much good on the field coach can't lose is going to be able to do. And if Stanford doesn't have the answers, then this could be a big opportunity for a Hawaii team that could get this win and all of a sudden, be having a power conference win, taking into a conference that they could win, right? Now all of a sudden, you're having big conversations about what the post season looks like. Uh, post season, speaking of, a couple teams that are in the mix to win their respective conferences, Memphis and the American, UNLV in the Mountain West, Dan Mullins, Rebels, playing host in this game between Charles Huff and the Tigers, who's got a lock? I think this is an awesome one to watch, by the way. Yes. There is a wide gap between confidence and entertainment with this game. I think this game will be wildly entertaining. I do not know what to expect because this is, this is Charles Huff's third first game new team in a row. So is he awesome at it or because he perfected the art of getting, pulling a new team together after doing this. So frequently over the last couple of years, maybe both. All right, I like to also, but to bring this up, we've discussed the Jackson Arnold Alex or G piece of this. I do think, I'm glad you mentioned Alex or G almost could be like a little shiny thing to look at. And Jackson Arnold could end up being the functional QB one the same way the Calandria was. But if it's not, I'm going to be unloading UNLV stock, moving forward and adjusting the model a little bit. Agreed. Yeah. Okay. I do have some like thought, I really kind of like the combo of like DC and OC at Memphis, just like complimentary styles, you know, like we'll see how the tempo is. The guy they hired an old Dom, I thought ran like a really unique scheme last year. And obviously he had a quarterback with him too that Wisconsin took, but you know, probably pretty aggressive from defense on on Memphis. My guest is Mullen is able to get some explosives there and we'll see how many stops are able to get Memphis turnovers. I think this is like a high variance game for sure. So no real lock on the spread, but I think like if you're not, we're not going to give out all some stuff on the show, but like this is one I would probably circle for that. I would like to issue an apology to Michigan fans right now. We probably should have given some kind of warning before discussing games quarterbacked by Davis Warren and Alex or G in quick succession after one another here. I'm sure a lot of Wolverines who have been suffering from PTSD or having a tough time with this segment. For that. Yeah. We apologize. We are. Photo sensitive. Yeah. Photo sensitivity and also that Jag Michigan quarterbacks when we bring up to the table, we should have let you know anything. It will not happen again. Yeah. Probably will. I will learn my lessons. Tom nothing. No lock here. No. I've got. I'm done with locks. Okay. No. You don't have anything on Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan. No. I think that money line for for for Eamoo is actually a little bit cheap. Like I don't like laying basically double digits with Creighton as a head coach, but I don't see him losing to Sac State. Are you at all worried that the Lee Moo Eamoo seems to have been replaced by Liberty Biberty? Oh, I need to like factor that in the model. I'll get back down. That is, that is fair. Oh, contraire. Well, because while Eastern Michigan was four and eight last season, or seven, four and one against the spread, you give me Chris Creighton. You bring give me Noah Kim. You bring them back. Noah, we got to tighten up on the turnovers, right? A lot of interceptions, some a little ball control, one great, but I do think playing to get Sacramento State with some of the experience that we have had with some teams as they make the jump. I see a nine and a half here. So I will take Eastern Michigan and I will lay the nine and a half with a team that did not win as much as they were able to cover last season. I'm going to say that they get ahead of the number and they capitalize on this as they prepare for year 13 of Chris Creighton. Yeah, I like full game there as opposed to the first half, by the way, because I don't really know if Eamoo knows what what Sac State's going to run. Correct. You might have some feeling out stuff there. But I do think they are a marketly better team and they're playing at home against the Sacramento State team that is making the travel and playing its first FBS game. I think there's a lot of built in advantages there in the factory. So give me Eamoo. I'll take Eastern Michigan minus nine and a half. All right, before we get to my line sprinkles, anything else, anything else? No, the only thing I almost bet in that game was there's some somewhat cheap Sac State plus three and a half first quarter. Just on that theory of like, does he zero zero? Zero zero. Yeah, right. Sacramento State scores on a trick play on their very first possession and then you're just coasting the rest of the way. Yeah. Interesting. All right. But weak zero, LoxCard looks like this TCU, North Carolina, first half, under 23 and a half NC State, Virginia, under 53 and a half. I've got North Carolina, first half plus six and a half NC State, Virginia, first half, under 27 and a half, Florida State minus 30 and a half, Eastern Michigan minus nine and a half. Danny is on TCU, North Carolina, under 47 and a half, NC State plus four and a half, Florida State minus 30 and a half, then Tom Scott, TCU, UNC, under 47 and a half, NC State, Virginia, under 53 and a half and North Dakota State, first half minus three and a half. Chip. Yes. Yeah. We do have another lock. Oh, the producer pick. Yeah. Look at Chip just crappin' all over our new producers just wow. All right. Let's hear it. The boys. I don't know. You guys want to give your own lockers. Yeah. Come on. Let's get. Let's see it. Yeah. Show your faces. Jump in. There we go. Yeah. Yeah. We're coming in with some sheets for weak zero. The total under 21 and a half, I just learned that their mascot is the Hornets, but the weak zero lights are going to be way too bright for those damn Hornets. And we got some research to support it too from our research team, then against FDS. Yeah. You guys are making graphics for their pick. They only average 13.8 points per game. They're not going to move the ball. That's the lock. What? Why do I have to use AI to make my graphics? We don't have time for your graphics. When it's the producer pick, it gets the best presentation that is totally fair and well-deserved. Throw it on the card. They are your table. We will track it along with Dennis. Thank you to Taft and Striker for that. And now it's time for Moneyline Sprinkles. All right. But you already declared that you got something. Yeah. I actually have two. We're going to play Memphis Plus 177s in far away places. What's the best number we can get on the soil? Plus 167? I just think that's a really high variance game. I do think there's some chance that Marcus Stokes is like a dude. And if he is, like Memphis might have the best quarterback in this game by far. So like Memphis there, and then the other one that I'm going to go with is, I had the circle, sorry. I'm scrolling to my stuff here. See what's still good. No, that kind of got, kind of got bebeed, so I'm going to pass. Yeah. Happens. Frequently. Frequently. Happens. That's all. I'm with Bud. My Moneyline Sprinkles, Memphis Plus 167, I just, that is a game that I'm really looking forward to watching. It is a game that I don't have a very good feel for and it is a game that I think, you know, I mean, Memphis has a talented team and like that there are good players on that roster. I know it's a new coaching staff, but there's a lot of familiarity. And then the fact that, you know, UNLV maybe doesn't have a for sure starting quarterback, you know, maybe still having that QB competition going on in the first game of the season could lead to trouble. All right, DK. I'll go give me the wolf pack get it done in Charlottesville against Virginia. Let me see what I can get you 158. I see 165. Yeah, 155s are out there. Okay, hark the sound wouldn't be hilarious. Wouldn't it be hilarious that Bill actually won? I mean, my how the turn tables could turn, you know, this like this is total unknown. And this is what it sprinkles for. All right. Is what it sprinkles for? I'll go tar heels to come back with the wind. And maybe it could end up as swimmingly as it did for, was it Pat Fitzgerald the year when he won in Ireland, but then didn't win again. Yeah, yeah, that's yeah. You get weird, you get weird results out there. If that happens, like, are you sipping on like a really frothy thick looking root beer, come and recap pod? No, I, I, no, free ads. Well, we actually have a partner. We actually have a partner for Saturday nights that we'll be very excited to unveil for people. But I, I think that I would not overreact to it, except to enjoy not having to just get drug through the car, the car crash excitement, you know, like people that, people that either we work with or people that are at other media outlets are just like, oh, Carolina screwed up chip, chip, chip hit the chip button, hit the chip button, hit the chip button. You're like, hey, chip, how much of a disaster is it? Chip, chip, like I, I don't enjoy that. That's not super fun. Y'all have experienced that. Oh, Danny, Danny, the nose, the no, I mean, I mean, it, it happens. It's not fun. You engage with it because you're a professional and you understand that you're doing what you can to help the team. But I wouldn't, I would not celebrate it because I think the team is what it is, but it's a game in Ireland. And we haven't seen Bobby Patrino and we haven't seen Billy Edwards play for North Carolina. And who says TCU's trustworthy? You know, I could think it could go out there and lose. Absolutely. It's real. Bill O'Bella check. I would take that. All right, any, anything else that we need to get out. We're back. We're back. We are going to be back to say we want to say half time in the Florida state game. Roughly, yeah. Roughly, okay. Make sure that you're subscribed. But we're going to be looking for about half time in the Florida state game to go live with our week zero reaction pod where we are going to be able to tackle some of what we have discussed here and then give you sort of live commentary on the action that is still going on through the evening. So make sure you come out. We are not waiting for week one when it comes to these instant reaction pods. We are coming on Saturday night, around half time, 830ish, Eastern time. We'll be sure to give you plenty of messaging on social media as well. And you can follow him on Twitter at time for know you can follow him at Danny can know you can follow him at bloody thing. Follow me at ship underscore Patterson gentlemen. Thank you very much. Thank you. See y'all. See you. One thing you learn doing a podcast is that yeah, the show is the show, but it's also a small business and with cover three, we want everything around it to feel like it belongs. The hats, the shirts, the stickers, the stuff you bring to events or send to listeners, it can't feel cheaper thrown together. That's where Vista print is the kind of partner that makes a lot of sense. Vista print helps make small businesses look established, polished and professional without making the whole process feel overwhelming. Whether you need branded apparel for the crew, drinkware or notebooks for giveaways, banners and signage for an event or packaging that actually looks like somebody thought about it, Vista print helps bring that idea to life. And that's the point, taking the thing in your head and making it real. Vista print helps you print your possible. Vista print, print your possible. 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