Wednesday, April 8th, 2026 - LCK, LPL

The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my patrons at patreon.com/jaladiLowell. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and lead previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcasts picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jaladiLowell. That's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-L-L. Alright, good evening everybody, it's currently about 5.03pm Eastern here on Tuesday, April 7th, 2026. I hope everybody had a good holiday weekend for those celebrating in the States. And for everybody, I hope everyone's just having a good start to their weekend general. I am not. I got caught up on mostly everything from the weekend games. I told you guys I was with friends and family and out and about all weekends. So I missed almost all of the Sunday card and most of the Monday card as well. So I had to get caught up on a lot of stuff this weekend. I did a lot of that last night when I got home. Not 100% through it yet. Still have to get through Monday, LEC and something like that LCS, but I've got a little bit. So weird, weird weekend results wise. I was going to get the rest of that done this afternoon, but ended up having to have the plumber over to fix some stuff and had to run some other errands today. So I'm running a little bit too short on time for a full recap. Sorry about that folks, but we do have a four match card on Wednesday, April 8th in the Eastern leagues, the LCK and the LPL. So let's get to that. We'll open up with week two day one in the LCK. I put the model power ratings up on the Patreon for those that are curious, including week one of spring and the LCK cup. These are all up to date numbers for the LCK. First match tomorrow is a really. We have two very, very interesting matches. So it's kind of a highlight real Wednesday in the LCK. So this is going to be a really, really good card. D+K here, a +146 on the money line. D+148 has a -213. The sweep for the dogs is a +331. Note that against homo life esports, we're minus 181 favorites. The sweep for the favorites is at +169. So what's interesting about this slate in the LCK is that we've played an entire split, and these are two head to heads that we have yet to see. Just because of how the bracket and groups and schedule draw like worked out for the LCK cup and the playoffs, we just haven't seen these two head to heads. And coincidentally, they're two of the more interesting head to heads because of the teams involved with them. Homo life D+K here, one of the more interesting match-ups because of the upside that we've clearly seen with both of these teams, but also because of how too faced both of these teams can be. Both these teams got a little bit of Mova star to them, for sure. I think, you know, like I said, there's one of a few head to head match-ups we've yet to see at this year. So, I don't know, Hamwa have, they handle business in their open-air against Breon, but it's against Breon. So I don't know exactly if that's necessarily saying much. They got their asses kicked by T1, despite a pretty damn good start in Game 2 of that series on, I think that was Saturday, right, or Friday. D+ opened with a pretty decisive loss to Noxium Red Force, and they followed it up with a 2-0 win against DRX, but Game 2 in that series was actually pretty close and could have gone either way. Now, generally speaking, I'm lower than market on Hamwa Life esports. Now, I talked a lot about this last week before the season started. Hamwa Life are getting a huge, huge dose of like benefit of the doubt from the market. The market had this, is just assuming this team is going to be the third best team without question. I don't think it's correct to assume this team just figures it out. And I'm someone that is just generally optimistic about this team, but I think everybody looks at this roster, and you basically have to be optimistic, but you got to compare where that's at compared to the market. Like, the market is all optimism. Like, zero pessimism whatsoever on this team, they are going to be the second and third best team in the LCK, and the market's convinced of that, right? I'm not. Like, that could end up being true, and we'll see it eventually, but we've yet to see things play out that way. Like, this team has just had a lot of holes, they have a lot of issues, and a lot of them are individual problems, a lot of them are communication issues. So I would argue maybe Kenobi is an individual issue, not because of like misplays on his part, but like over aggression and his team not being on the same page with them. Now, D+ have had their issues for sure. They have their inconsistencies. They're also a bit too faced, but I think they've put together a decent enough portfolio that I'm okay saying that these two should be treated as basically the same team until we see otherwise. I know that might be a little bit of a hot take for people, but they're both Feast or Famine. They both have losses against weaker teams. They both have wins against better teams, and they've both kind of punched up and punched down, and they have very, very similar statistical profiles as well. So D+ have punched up as underdogs. They've been good as underdogs. They have first selection in this contest. I think the model makes HLE a minus 122 favorite, like a 55% in change. I think we're somewhere probably in between the market and the model price. So I think D+ are worth a play. They're gonna have first selection, which is a nice added bump for them. I'm willing to pay to see it with Hamla. Like if they get me, I'm cool with it at this price point, but I like this anything plus 135 or better. I got a D+ key, a plus 150 over on Calci, but I like there's a plus 146 on Pinnacle. There's a plus 143 on Kambi. You have multiple options in this one. So anything plus 135 or better on the money line for D+ key, I like maybe Hamla proved me wrong and show me why the market was all bold up on them. It wouldn't shock me at all, but I'm willing to pay to see it with them. I still think this might take longer than people think. So D+ key plus 150 on the money line, one unit. Next up, we got a banger, potentially a world number two, number one matchup, depending on your opinions and certain other things. T1 plus 183 on the money line, the plus one, I'm asking for 172. These sweeps that plus 394, look against Gen G minus 233 on the money line. These sweeps that plus 139 for the favorites. Model makes Gen G a larger favorite, minus 296 fair, which is just a shade under 75% implied. So this is yet another head to head that we've somehow avoided in the LCK. The skinny on that, this matchup to me is this. If you think Gen G's opening week loss to KT Roaster was more of an outlier than something to be concerned about, I think you're actually getting a good price with the favorites here, the model agrees. That might sound really outlandish, because like I said, I think you can make a case the T1's world number two. I mean, depends on your thoughts on billiability and fear X and G2 and some others, I guess KT, I guess if you want to throw them in the conversation, but by the numbers, Gen G really are that much better than everybody, even with the recent losses way more heavily on their data set here. So I personally think that KT loss was more of a higher percentile KT performance than anything specifically wrong that Gen G did in that match. And they have a share to pwn in here. Both these teams lost to KT in week one. I think the T1 lost to KT. You had that weird game one draft where I thought it was just KT draft gap, right? The other game was a legit KT win. But I've kind of think that one was like a draft gap and then also a KT, just good game. So it's very weird to think about this, but I kind of think it wasn't necessarily Gen G or T1 playing badly in their first series in the KT losses, right? So this is kind of an ob-1. Over the years, if you just back T1 blind as underdogs, that's paid extraordinarily well, domestically, internationally, wherever, right? This is one of the longest prices we've ever seen on them with the full starting lineup in in a long time. So I can totally understand wanting to go to war with them here. They also have first selection for this match. T1, just to me, haven't looked as dominant when they're fighting someone in their own weight class. Yeah, like T1 could be world number two. They could also be world number five or six or something. It's kind of tough to tell right now because it's been a little hot and cold. These two teams have both been a little hot and cold. T1 split their series with D+Fier X and KT. And I think they had two series wins against Hama Life. This first was kind of close, but that was back in week one. So they've kind of been, you know, often on against like other teams that I consider in their weight class. And I think Gen G are pretty clearly better than all of those teams right now or at least overall. So I don't know. It's a tough thing. Like I think this is a class up. I think if you think Gen G are just the best team in the world and it's with margin like I do, even though they haven't gotten the results to show that, I think this is probably a fair price or close enough. If you think this is like a by-low T1 first selection, Gen G kind of looking the worse that they have in a while, I could see the case for playing T1. I'm not quite as bullish on Gen G in this matchup as the model is, but this market price isn't enough for me to get involved with T1 either. Pretty hard leaned to the T1 plus one and a half mass, but no action for me ultimately in this one. Alrighty, moving on to the LPL week two day one. I put the model ratings up for the LPL as well. I have the split, I have that all set up now, so it's gonna be a Senn Group as one model and their Rhonda Group is the other one, which I had before, but I wasn't posting all the charts and stuff from that. I was using like a collected pulling data from both of them, you know, mashing it all together. I'm just gonna be using split mods 'cause I think it's just makes more sense to do that now. I've been doing it in the background since, just I'm gonna have all the stuff for visuals and stuff now. So nothing all that surprising in terms of the rankings, probably I. IG right now is like seventh. I don't think that's gonna necessarily end up being true just because I think this new roster is interesting, but we'll talk about that in the second match. First match is Ninjas in pajamas. They're plus 150 on the money line. The plus one in AMS on it's two of seven hundred dollar sweep is that plus three 39. They are up against Invictus Gaming, the aforementioned. Minus 180 six on the money line. These sweeps at plus one 65. The model makes NIP the favorite here. And it's because of what I just mentioned, Invictus still having those trailing numbers from last season. Both these teams had a really good opening week. Oh, quickly, Renard is getting the start again for Invictus Gaming. So keep in mind it's the same roster we saw. Same lineup we saw all the first match. So we're still dealing with weird samples for both these teams, keeping some of the stuff from the softer schedule and the winter. That said within NIP specifically, their most recent 13 games, Oregon's Invictus, BilliBilly, Invictus, a second time in Best of Fives, both of those. And Team WWE last week, those are receiving more weight. And that's a lot of losses in that stretch. So it's kind of interesting that even with all the losses in there, NIP are this heavy a favorite. I think both these teams are coming off of really decisive wins in their opening week. Invictus over top esports and then ninjas of pajamas over WWE. Fun little piece of trivia for Invictus. Way has actually picked up the last nine first bloods in a row, which is hilarious. So these two played two bestifies during the playoffs in winter and NIP took the first one three to one. And really they dominated like all four of the games. They just threw one of them late. The second series was a three to one IG win that was significantly closer. They dominated games one and four, but the other two games were coin flips. Invictus, Remind us, 174 favorites in the first best of five in lost. NIP were short favorites. It's just a little bit more than a pick them in the second. So this is the most expensive price for Invictus gaming in this head to head, which isn't all that surprising, I guess, with their domination of top esports in week one. But this is still a little bit odd to me in general. Model screaming bloody murder to play on IP here. But I like the moves Invictus have made. And I think there's a really good chance that they're just going to be a much better team with the iteration of the roster. Maybe it was an opening series fluke, but Mako returning is a huge, huge deal if he's in form. And he and Jockey started off with a complete domination of the top esports bottom lane, with Jackie Lovemaking is returned. So I'm going to lay off NIP in this instance because I think we might be in a situation where IG are just a completely different team. Like we might just need to treat them. Like they're completely different roster. They made a lot of changes. I think they're all upgrades for the most part. I mean, we'll see what Bernard does. But like, I think this is one of those matches where we're going to look back in a few weeks. And this is going to be probably going to be a gift of a price in either direction. Like this could look super cheap for Invictus or super cheap for NIP. But because we're dealing with so many unknowns, I'm just going to use this as a data point and not really have anything at stake. I do actually think if you force me to bet this, I'd actually play Invictus Moneyline, even with NIP having selection and all that. Like I do, like if Mako is in his normal form, I think Invictus are just a good team now, which is crazy. But you know, they're going to have to build some chemistry with this lineup. But like, there issue a lot of time less, weak laced split. Jockey actually played really, really well. I think the bottom lane was fine, but Mako is just, he's the best support in LPL history. Like it's an upgrade period. So I don't know, like I think it's possible this team is just good now, but we won't really know for a little bit. So I, that's by not betting this, I'm kind of pretty strongly planting my flag that I think Invictus might just be good now. Like tacitly, I guess. No action for me in this one. But a really, really interesting matchup. Second matchup in the LPL tomorrow. Top E sports minus 275 in the money line. These sweeps are plus 124. They're up against Team WWE, plus 210 in the money line. The plus 1.8 advance minus 151. The $100 sweep is at plus 4.36. Model actually makes this a minus 255 fair. So a little under 72% implied, 75% in the custom weighted model. Top E sports with the full on Juke out in week one. They got smoked by Invictus in their debut. And then they sort of dominated one of the best teams in anyone's legend, although that game one was kind of a weird one. I don't even know what to make of that. So maybe it was just weird week one shit, but one thing I do know what to make of is that this team W.E. team absolutely blows compared to the other teams in this division. And I think with like, with how much better everyone around the world seems to have gotten at closing games out with haste, like we've seen a lot more sub 27 minute wins, not by percentage. Like we've seen more by percentage, not like a stupid amount by percentage, but like, it's definitely like the tempo teams are getting better at understanding like, oh, we can actually end on this first baron or we can end without a baron here. Teams are getting a lot better at that kind of thing. And like, I think with Team WWE kind of playing this slow plotting, we're scaling bro style. Like it's going to become dated really fast. I think it already has. They're just going to get completely run over in most of their games. And you know, like WWE are dead last and basically every economic measure, they're dead last in game grades, they're dead last in recent trailing game grades. They're dead last in most objective control. Like they have a statistically significant deficit in nearly 40% of their games, which is one of the worst rates that I've seen in a long time. This is the opposite of Team WWE in 2025. Like they were a good early game team in 2025. They were like the tempo team and try to run you over. They've completely flipped. I've talked about how I think this coaching staff's philosophy and the players on the roster are not a good fit for one another. The coaching staff is trying to jam a square peg and around whole with like good early game players and making them play late game. And they're just like not letting them do what they're good at. I think it's a bad matchup. I think top e sports are going to smoke this one. I know that week one pump fakes sucked and it could kind of have you on your heels. I got got got for one you know one unit lost by that. But you know, this is close enough to neutral EV via the numbers that and top f first selection. I think WWE are just not on the same levels. Everybody else in this division. I'd be shocked. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Team WWE doesn't win a match this summer or this spring. So I'm willing to take a shot with with top e sports to sweep this one. I don't think this is like a crazy plus EV position. But I really do think WWE are probably just way worse than everybody else. So team, I'm going to take top e sports minus one and a half maps to sweep this one. I got plus one 24 over pinnacle. I'm going to play that for one unit. That's going to be it for me. I'll be back tomorrow with the Thursday slate and the LPL and the LCK and best of luck to you.