We The People 2026: MS NOW's special midterm elections coverage - Part 1

Now, coming up at the top of the hour, as Peter mentioned, we've got a whole bunch of poll closings. Poll closings at 9 p.m. Eastern include Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. And some of those poll closings are places that you have heard me name at other benchmark moments in terms of poll closings. A lot of these places have split poll closings, for example, where some polls close in part of the state at one hour and close in the other part of the state in another hour in states in particular where there's a time zone difference. But this is a large number. This is the largest number of poll closings that we will have for the rest of the night closing right now here at 9 o'clock. And let's look at some of what we think we've got, starting with some of the Senate races. Let's go first to Texas. In the Senate race in Texas. All right. We've got 38 percent of the vote in. MS now characterizes the Senate race in Texas as lean Democratic. 38 percent of the vote in Democrat James Tallarico at 58 percent of the vote. Republican Ken Paxton at 40 percent of the vote. You see it's nearly three quarters of a million votes for that lead for James Tallarico. Now, this is only 38. We've got 38 percent of the vote in, but this we can safely characterize this as lean Democratic. Now, let's talk about the Wyoming Senate race in the Wyoming Senate race. We do have a winner. The Associated Press has called this race for the incumbent Republican Congresswoman excuse me, incumbent Republican Senator Harriet Hageman. This is not a surprise. This is the most pro Trump state in the country. But Harriet Hageman has held on to her seat against Democrat James Byrd. On to the Colorado Senate race in the Colorado Senate race. We have a winner. The Associated Press has projected that Democratic incumbent Senator John Hickenlooper has defeated a challenge from Republican Mark Beasley. And now on to the New Mexico Senate race in the New Mexico Senate race. We also have a winner. The Associated Press has called this race for Ben Ray Lujan, the incumbent Democratic senator from New Mexico. He has defeated a challenge from Republican Larry Marker. We have a change in our characterization in the South Carolina Senate race. This is the characterization. This is actually the first time that we are characterizing this race. It is too close to call. Just under two thirds of the vote is in in South Carolina in this Senate race. Darlene Graham, the Republican, trying to fill the seat vacated by her late brother, Lindsey Graham, the Democratic challenger there, Annie Andrews. It is too close to call in South Carolina with 66 percent of the vote. In. In. Look at a couple of governors races at this hour. Excuse me. This is the Senate balance of power overall. We have seen one net gain in the Senate. That's in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper has taken the Senate seat previously held by Republican Tom Tillis. Democrats right now safely hold 45 seats in the Senate. Republicans hold 34. There are 21 races in the Senate still uncalled for. This is our characterization of control of the United States House. Democrats will win a minimum of 205 seats. You need 218 to control the House. Our characterization of control of the House of Representatives is that it leans Democrat. Let's look at governor's races now. In the Colorado governor's race, we have a winner, Phil Weiser, the projected winner in the Colorado governor's race. The projected winner in the Colorado governor's race. Over a very unusual Republican candidate named Victor Marx. We can talk about him later. But the projected winner, pardon me, the Associated Press, is Phil Weiser in the Colorado governor's race. And in the Wyoming governor's race, we also have a winner. The Associated Press has called the Wyoming governor's race for Republican Eric Barlow over Democrat Kenneth Kassar. All right, governor at this hour, Democrats with seven, Republicans with one. Lots more still to come. Call. Whew. Ali Velshi, can we just do a little more lightning round in terms of some house races? Yes. Can I show you South Carolina first, though? Oh, please. You were talking about South Carolina. Yeah. The reason, I just want to show you a little bit about how we do this math. Are you hearing my mic? Everything's hearing. We got you. Okay, make sure. All right, so here's the thing. It's 66% in. Annie Andrews continues in her lead. So I want to look at what type of vote has come in. As expected, Annie Andrews led in the advance vote. 59 to 40. But now what's left is the day of vote, right? So Darlene Graham's getting 58% of that vote. What does she need to win? She needs 58% of all the remaining vote, which means mathematically it's possible she could get that 58%. We're not sure that she will, but that's why we're calling this too close to call. Because if you look at the big bubbles that are outstanding at the moment, Annie Andrews is winning those. But this is Ralph Norman area that's pretty conservative up here. It'd be unusual that the Democrat were winning in these areas, which means the advance vote is in. And when this may turn, these blue bubbles may turn red. So that's what I wanted to tell you about. Now, you wanted to talk about some interesting house races. What we have had right now is one flip, North Carolina 11. I was telling you about this, where Jamie Ager has won this race. But look at the number of these are red, which means they went into the election as Republican. And look at the Democratic lead in all of these. For instance, these are the four that I'm paying very close attention to in Pennsylvania. PA 1, PA 7, PA 8 and PA 10. These are all targets for Democrats to win. Right now, Democrats are leading in all of them. I will remind everybody early vote in this instance was is favoring Democrats. But this is going to be the hardest one for Democrats to pick up. This is Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania District 1. Brian Fitzpatrick is a guy who's tried to separate himself from Donald Trump a little bit. Bob Harvey is a county commissioner for Bucks County. So this is Bucks County with a little bit of Montgomery County. And at the moment, Bob Harvey's in the lead here. Take a look at Pennsylvania 3. This one is going to be Chris Rabb. He's the projected winner here by the Associated Press. He's a DSA candidate. No surprise there. But Pennsylvania 10, Janelle Telston, a longtime news anchor, challenging Scott Perry. This is a rematch again. Scott Perry is the election denierist, denierial, whatever you want to call it, of the election deniers. Right. This guy was an undoubted, quote, conspirator on the 2020 stuff. He, at the moment, only 17 percent in. But that is also looking good for Democrats right now. So look at the look at the Democratic look at the Pennsylvania map right here. Look at. All of these things, seven, eight. These are all things that Democrats are challenging Republicans for and at the moment are faring well. Again, I will caution you. It's early in the night. We saw what happened in Florida where Angie Nixon was leading. And then when the day of vote came in, she wasn't. So these are this is why we don't call these things before we know what's going to happen. Can I ask you about a few more? Yeah, please. Can we go back to North Carolina one? Yeah. Which is that moderate Democrat there who Don Davis. Yeah. Republicans were absolutely sure they were going to be able to oust. From that seat. How's he doing? Particularly well with 60 percent. And again, there are lots of people who thought Don Davis wasn't going to win this. He's a he's a military man. He has shown the willingness to separate from the Democratic Party on key votes. He is considered a moderate. This this was going to be one of those early to watch things. Don Davis might lose this and might have lost this. But if he kept it close, it was a sign that things were shifting in the direction of Democrats. Take a look at this in this redistricted district. This is Donald. Trump plus 11 and a half plus 12 district. Don Davis is ahead by by four in here. So about by by by four. So this is interesting, right? That this is actually in play right now. Little early to tell with 60 percent of the vote in. But it's a it's a good one to keep watching. Let's talk about Florida and some of those House districts there. We had some interesting results in Florida. Jared Moskowitz, Kathy, Kathy Castor, both congressional districts, again, where Republicans thought they had engineered the Democrats out of those. Seats and both Moskowitz and Castor held on. We were also curious about Florida nine. Yeah. Let's take a quick look at at number nine. Where are we here? Because I could find a plenty of funny numbers here. Darren Soto. This was redistricted as well, specifically with the goal of getting Darren Soto out of office. They made this into a Trump plus 18. Wow. Plus 18. Ninety nine percent. We're almost done here. Ninety nine percent in. The lead is narrow. That's why this has not been called by the Associated Press. It's only a lead of. Twelve hundred votes out of almost two hundred and ninety thousand votes cast. So we'll have to see what happens here. But again, look at what it was supposed to be and look at what it is. It's Marge. It's almost irrelevant as to whether Darren Soto wins or not. To give you a sense of how sentiment in this country has shifted so far against Republicans in the House right now. I want to go back to a couple of races in Indiana and Kentucky that we were talking about very early on in the night as potential, not necessarily bellwethers. But an indicator of how Democrats were doing Kentucky six and Indiana five. Good distinction. It's not bellwethers because we're we were not expecting that Zach Dembo would win. We were looking to see whether Zach Dembo could narrow the gap in this case of fifty six to forty one in the last presidential election. This is Andy Biggs old district. So let me just actually show you that. Randy Barr's old district. Let me just show you what that is. Andy Barr well outperformed Donald Trump in twenty twenty four. Sixty three to thirty seven. Now look at this. Fifty two to forty three was seventy four percent of the race in. Again, the remaining twenty six percent of this race is all going to be day of vote. So if I. I can show you what is outstanding here. Again, a lot of it's coming from Lexington. But, you know, this is this is looking this is kind of looking interesting. Alvarado needs 62 percent of the remaining vote to catch up. It's not impossible that he could do that, which is why this hasn't been called. But it is it's tight. I mean, this is not what I was expecting to talk about, that that Dembo is in the lead for most of the night. This is Indiana 5. J.D. Ford, again, the first LGBTQ member of the legislature in Indiana. This is another one of these things. This wasn't expected to happen. Take a look at what this was in in 2024. This is a 17 and a half point Trump district. Look at this. And he's been in the lead pretty much all night. Eighty eight percent in. Again, it's only a 10,000 vote lead. We've got to sort of see where where he needs to pick up votes. But Victoria Sparks, by the way, she's the only Ukrainian born member of the U.S. House. She's an interesting character. Look her up. But 66 percent is what she has to do. That's actually a bit of a bar. Like, it's not impossible, which is, again, why? This hasn't been called for J.D. Ford and it might not get called for J.D. Ford. But Kentucky five and Indiana, Kentucky six and Indiana five were just meant to be temperature takers. Right. We were just meant to see our Republicans sort of switching over, independent switching over. I was not expecting to be this late into the night and have the Democrats still in the lead in both of these districts. Yeah, those are races where on a normal night you would not expect Democrats to be even in the conversation. That's the fact that neither of those is called. OK, we have a new. We have a call to make. And this is an important one. In the Florida governor's race, the Associated Press has projected a winner. The Associated Press has called this race Florida governor's race will be won by Republican Congressman Byron Donalds. He has defeated former Congressman David Jolly in the Florida governor's race. This follows the call that we had earlier this hour or excuse me, from last hour in which the in the Florida Senate race in which the Republicans. Republican candidate for Florida Senate also defeated the Democratic candidate for Florida Senate. But in both cases, in a state that Republicans have supposedly slammed the door on all Democratic chances, we see with 98 percent of the vote in David Jolly kept it close. But Byron Donalds is the winner of the governor's race in Florida. That's fascinating stuff in terms of where we are going from here on out, Ali. I'm sorry to keep you waiting. I'm sorry to keep you sort of hustling here. But can we talk about Ohio? Let's go back to Ohio right now. Let's go to the Senate race first. Forty nine percent in Sherrod Brown. He's keeping it tight. Fifty one to forty four. But take a look at the type of vote that's coming in. Sherrod Brown, as expected, was leading in the advance vote. Fifty eight to thirty eight. It's a complete flip on the day of. Right. Right now, Sherrod Brown is getting 36 percent of the day of. John Houston's getting 57 percent. So now I want to look at what Houston needs to catch. If it's anywhere around the 57 number, it's much lower. It's 51 percent. So he's outperforming what he needs to get in the remainder of the straight in order a state in order to win, which is why with 49 percent of the vote in, this is one of those ones we have to watch very, very closely. It would be my guess at this point that this lead is going to narrow over the next hour or so. We're going to watch that very, very closely. Let's look at the gubernatorial race in Ohio. Forty nine percent in. So it's the same thing. They're getting. They're getting very similar amounts of the vote. Actually, let's just compare the actual vote totals. Almost exactly the same. Right. Amy Acton is doing a little bit more raw vote. One point two six versus one point two one million. John Houston, again, getting a little more vote than Vivek Ramaswamy is one point oh five versus one point oh three. But that lead is a little stronger there. Fifty three to forty forty four. A little bit stronger for Amy Acton at the moment. Again, same reasons why we have to watch this, because if you look at the voting method, you'll see that Amy Acton got 60 percent of the advance vote to Ramaswamy's thirty eight. Now she's getting thirty nine percent of the day of vote to his fifty seven. So what does he need to do to win? He needs fifty three. So once again, Husted and Ramaswamy are both outperforming what they actually need to do to win the rest of the state. But there are still places in here. Look at the biggest bubbles. I keep showing people the biggest bubbles mean those are not counted votes. We have no vote in from Toledo yet. That is going to actually favor favorite Sherrod Brown. And Amy Acton, we got a lot of vote to come in from Cleveland, from Acton, from Columbus, from Dayton and Cincinnati, all places that are going to favor the Democratic candidate. So this is definitely one of those ones where you just have to watch it because there's no way to know based on the information that we've got currently out of Ohio where this is going to land. All right, Ali, thank you. We do have a characterization to make. We have a call to make actually back to Florida. Another really interesting house race in Florida. The Associated Press has projected in the 22nd congressional district in Florida, which is geographically massive. One of these strange shaped districts created by this very aggressive gerrymandering redistricting. Democrat Pia Dendia is the projected winner. Associated Press has called her as the winner in that 22nd congressional district race against Republican Casey Asghar. This was a district that was not designed to go to a Democrat. It was built to go to a Republican. And Pia Dendia, the Democrat, has won this. She's a very. Charismatic candidate, ran a very strong, very retail politics heavy campaign. I'm super interested to see that she has won this because it foils Republicans plans there. But I also think she may have a real bright future. Yeah, I mean, former principal. I mean, she can speak to things in a very real world way. What's also interesting about this, she's super compelling. People haven't gotten to know her yet, but it was an open seat. So in many ways, it was like a test of this generic ballot of generic Dem versus generic Republican. Yeah, because. Nobody knew either of them super well, right? So she's interesting, will be really interesting member of the Democratic caucus, but also a good overall sign for Democrats because it wasn't an incumbent type of race. Yeah. Look, I will say the fact that they really redrew the district to be a Trump plus 10 district in Florida's 22nd congressional district and they lost it. If Michael Steele were sitting here, he would say, you can pick the lines. You can't pick what the voters inside the lines are going to do. That doesn't mean that the mid-decade redistricting didn't matter and was not detrimental. It was, I mean, I have lots of thoughts about the mid-decade redistricting, but it does mean that the people were paying attention and the voters are like, they do have the final say. Can I also just note, I know this happened earlier and you said this, but we talk about the history of this BMA tonight and Byron, to be clear, Byron Donald is now the governor of Florida. It is a historic win. It is the first time Florida has elected a black governor. I will say, though, you know, as you say in my community, all kinfolk ain't skinfolk. And what I say and what I mean by that is Byron Donald is making history, but he is going to continue the political direction that Ron DeSantis is going to continue in Florida. And so he was on The Breakfast Club this morning, was being asked about all kinds of policies and whatnot. And he, you know, sounded similar to Ron DeSantis. And so I think it's very interesting and what voters decided to do in Florida today. But also in Illinois, because of Julianna Stratton, the sixth black woman ever in the history of our country in the 230 year history of the Senate is going to the United States Senate for the first time ever in our history. Three black women will consecutively be serving at the same time for the first time in our history in America. Illinois has simultaneously elected the first the women, two women of color will lead the Senate delegation. History is being made all over this country tonight in crazy ways. Yeah. And it's being made both on the Republican side and the Democratic side, which is an important thing. We have a new call to make. This is in the. Senate race in the great state of Kentucky. This is the Senate seat being vacated by Mitch McConnell, who is retiring. Republican Congressman Andy Barr left the United States House in order to compete for that Senate race. The Associated Press now says that he has defeated Democrat Charles Booker. And so the Senate seat in Kentucky will stay in Republican hands. And Andy Barr will be the new Democratic excuse me, will be the new Republican U.S. Senator from the state of Kentucky. I think that we're talking about Florida as part of the bigger story that I think everyone is reluctant to characterize anything that we're seeing nationally. But it is a national story that we're talking about Florida. And I remember Tim Russert with the whiteboard for the Florida, Florida. It's been a long time since we've spent a lot of time talking about Florida. And I think you look at the redistricting, you look at all the attacks on democracy. Voters hear everything. They just don't get to weigh in on them until they have a chance to go to the polls. And so I think the turnout piece is the story. I think how how united people are on the. Take issues that sent them to the polls are part of the story. And I think it's all connected. I mean, the people that are carrying out corrupt acts in full view of everybody are Republicans. The people who aren't doing anything about the corrupt Republicans are the Republican members of Congress. And the people responsible for both the ailing economy and the war in Iran, which is making the economy even more difficult, are all of the congressional Republicans. So everything we've covered and everything we've heard and everything we've learned about voters over the last two years kind of is clicking in and making sense tonight. And it's also already in the data, regardless of where some of these tight races land. You know, normal politicians, which is to say pre Donald Trump politicians, when they win really close, as you're seeing Byron Donald, he's going to win with 50 point something percent of the vote. Right. That terrifies the new incumbent governor. He has one job, getting people to vote for him next time who didn't vote for him this time, which means he cannot play this like Donald Trump. He can't. Who ignores anyone. who didn't vote for him. don't know what to expect from Florida's new Republican senator, Florida's new Republican governor, and how far they might be willing to break from Donald Trump, whose career will be long over when each one of them are running for reelection. He will never be able to help them again. And if you ask them tonight, how much did he help you this time? I'm not sure they're going to give you a really positive answer about that. So these are two people who we should watch for how much they're actually willing to separate from Trump now. On the redistricting, I know I'm obsessed with this story, but I think it's an interesting one of the evening. They have now lost three of the four seats that the Republicans have in Florida that they redistricted, that they were betting on to win. And I think Texas, which will soon hopefully get some results in, we will see, is going to be a fascinating additional state to watch on that. The gerrymander. On the gerrymander, on the gerrymander and the backfire of the gerrymander, because they were making bets on the electorate and where they were going to go that just didn't play out for different reasons in different states. But that's part of the Florida story. Such an important moment, though, for Hakeem Jeffries, who always had a strategy to respond to this gerrymander that was sprung upon him. He didn't enter this period thinking, let's go gerrymander around the country. Donald Trump started it and Hakeem Jeffries responded. And if you remember when he would talk about it publicly, he had this confidence about him. Hakeem Jeffries kept having this confidence that, you know, there'd be a new move on the Republican side, Florida, Texas, and Jeffries would come back. And I was watching him and I was always thinking, what does he know that we don't know? And the answer is a lot. You know, they really do know a lot. That's that's his job. But he has masterminded this response to the gerrymandering. And it is an astonishing thing to see tonight. Well, we can put some numbers to that right now, actually. We can actually update our characterization in terms of control of the United States House. Again, you need 18 seats in order to take control of the House, in order for Hakeem Jeffries to be the speaker of the House. And our estimate is that the Democrats likelihood of or the between the two parties, the likelihood of controlling the House, it leans toward the Dems. But you keep seeing the estimated minimum number of seats on the Democratic side creep up. The first time we made this characterization, it was a minimum 200 seats and it was minimum 205 seats. Now it is a minimum minimum 210 seats on the Democratic side. They need 218 seats to control. But that number keeps creeping up on the Democratic side as we again characterize the overall House control likelihood as leaning towards the Democrats. On that point, Ali Velshi, North Carolina House races. It's wild. What's going on? Let me show you this. OK, I want to show you a different thing first. Let's go to the 2024 House. This is what North Carolina looks like going into tonight. Right. All the red ones are Republican. All the blue ones are Democratic. Let's take a look at where we are right now. Can you read on that map? There are no the Republicans are not leading in any district in North Carolina right now. Wait, wait, wait, wait. Say that again. The Republicans are not leading in a single in a single district in the state of North Carolina. And the reason I earlier I said I wanted to show you the margins in North Carolina to give you a sense of it, that Roy Cooper is winning North Carolina with margins that even the most optimistic Roy Cooper support. And this is a guy who's never lost an election in 40 years and he's won six statewide elections in North Carolina. Even people who thought he was going to do a really good job. It's it's blowing the lights out. I will tell you, this is the one we're watching most closely. This is the 13th district. Paul Barringer is in the lead to 71 percent in. But this is one of those things where the vote method is such where and this is kind of all over North Carolina, which is why it's why I take this as a snapshot in time. This may change. Most of the vote for Democrats is advanced vote and most of the day of vote favors Republicans. So again, that may change. And if I come back to this in 20 minutes, it may. But it's just it's a little story to tell you that at the moment, Democrats and this has been closed for some time. We've counted a lot of votes in North Carolina and they continue to win in North Carolina. Texas, again, continues to be very interesting. Fifty two percent of the vote in right now. James Tallarico running at about 60 percent to Ken Paxton's 40 percent. And if you look at the governor race there again, this is the more interesting one. In some ways, because since the day can can James Tallarico won his primary, there was a sense that this guy's got energy. And Ken Paxton, who ended up being the primary winner after a runoff, was just a bad candidate. This is a different story. Greg Abbott is not loathed in Texas the way Ken Paxton is in some quarters. Gina Hinojosa was just sort of a steady as she goes kind of politician where nobody had anything particularly bad to say about her. But we've all sort of interviewed her and she said they're making inroads here in the same way that Annie Andrews was making inroads in South Carolina. And for the moment, that is paying off. It's 42 percent right now. There's still a lot of vote to come in in Texas. This is going to be an interesting story to keep talking about. But it's it's it begs continuing to keep your eye on. We have a big call in the state of Georgia. We have a call in the governor's race. This has just happened in the last three seconds. Associated Press has called us. Keisha Lance Bottoms, Democrat, will be the next governor of the state of Georgia. This is a flip in the Georgia governor's race. She has defeated Republican Rick Jackson. The only person who said that this would happen, who I believed is Simone Sanders Townsend. And I only half believed her, if we're being honest. But Keisha Lance Bottoms, former mayor of Atlanta, an incredible political talent in Georgia, among so many incredibly talented black women, Democratic politicians in Georgia. Keisha Lance Bottoms is now has been called the winner in this Georgia governor's race. Before we understand exactly how that happened, Simone Sanders Townsend, I want you to tell us why you knew that was going to happen before it happened. I mean, well, one, because I know Keisha Lance Bottoms, but two, because the people in Georgia have been organizing. And to be very clear, we just take it all the way back to the new Georgia project. Way back when and Stacey Abrams, when they in Georgia, Stacey Abrams set out and said, there are voters in Georgia to be organized. There are people who have yet to be touched. And if you just speak to them, if you just talk to them, if you just talk to voters about their power, they they will participate. And cycle after cycle, we saw some gains and some moves. And today, America has elected its first black woman as governor in this country. Keisha Lance Bottoms made history tonight, but she didn't run on making history. She ran on the issues. Yeah. And I think that resonated with folks in the state. As I was texting and talking with people, they all kept saying black voters all across this country right now, but specifically across the South, they understand the assignment. And earlier this year, we have been talking about Rachel did a whole segment about it. I said, this is what an ally look like about black political power and black people being under attack in this country politically. People, you saw that. We all see it. We talked about it. The voters across this country saw that and they are taking their power back. It is no small thing that Keisha Lance Bottoms will be the governor of Georgia during the next presidential election. That is right. It is Keisha Lance Bottoms who will make sure that the election is certified for whoever the winner is. It is it is Keisha Lance Bottoms. It will be on the other side of the phone if Donald Trump picks up the phone and calls. It is remarkable. Remarkable. And so whatever else happens tonight, this is a reminder that in America, the people have the power. Georgia has a governor named Keisha. Give me a teacher. You put in the organizing effort for years and years and years and it doesn't pay off and it doesn't pay off and it doesn't pay off. And then it does. After 22 after the general election in 2020, the midterm in 2022. I remember I was I was on our air the next morning and I said, you know, Stacey Abrams, the work that she has done because of her work. She may never see the fruits of her labor, but somebody else will. That was in 2022 because of the work that has been done in Georgia because Stacey Abrams walks. So Keisha Lance Bottoms could run. And lastly, I will note. This is not about the coattails of John Ossoff. Keisha Lance Bottoms brought out voters on her own of people who were out there casting a ballot for her. And she beat an orange slot of money and cash. And so for all the folks that said, ah, it's going to be John Ossoff that pulls Keisha Lance Bottoms over the finish line. She took herself over that finish line. And so for all the folks that said, ah, it's going to be John Ossoff. And she took herself over that finish line. i'm not sure you can hear them they actually just got finished swag surfing in here which anyone who knows knows that that's a sign of community um folks here are jubilant to say the least i look i spoke to a lot of democratic voters over the last couple weeks who were concerned about those polls that had john ossoff ahead and keish lance bottoms in a in a tied race but the people here her supporters remain confident that the work she's been doing in that state would pay off today and we're seeing it and to simone's point i want to point out here an underreported aspect of her campaign is the amount of time she spent in middle georgia in south georgia and rural communities talking to people who may have only known her through the advertisements that her opponent rick jackson spent 200 million dollars of his own fortune investing in she keyed in on specific issues that she found connected with voters including data centers calling for a moratorium on data centers honing in on flock cameras and the privacy concerns people had here and made that the central piece of her campaign in addition to issues like economic concerns and health care and she told me as recently as yesterday that she was confident that would result in voters putting her throwing their support behind her and ultimately create the environment we're seeing today but i want to point out one other thing as folks here are celebrating what they're celebrating isn't just the history that keisha lance bottoms is making they're optimistic that she could actually could actually just be the first of several firsts in this state that includes folks like tanya miller the democratic attorney general candidate who could be the first to uh to make history in that race as well as in the secretary of state race so black women up and down the ballots poised to make history here in georgia it is a huge amount of history no one can articulate it better than simone sanders towns and just did for all of us nnamdi thank you for being there for all of you reporting on the ground i know we're going to come back to you we're going to go now to antonia hilton who's at a watch party at the painted pin bowling alley in atlanta tell us about what people are saying there antonia um as soon as this call was made people started to shout clap and cheer in here and i think you probably know what i'm talking about i'm talking about the fact that we're talking about the fact we want to hear from them more than you want to hear from me uh there's immense emotion here people understand this history in their bones people have been warning me for days here that in georgia and all across the south black voters were going to have something to say especially in the aftermath of the gutting of the voting rights act they came out to support keisha and really the entire ticket you tell me what does this mean to you this is a historic day for america uh i really can't i really don't have the words for it but this is a very important day for the state of i mean for america did you ever believe that you would see a black woman become governor of georgia yes because i believe in the people of georgia and so does keisha lance bottom she represents all of georgia she is going to fight for our health and well-being in the states and i'm so excited that she is now our next governor i am so grateful for this what message do you think georgia is sending the country tonight to get ready get ready for the change get ready for what's coming next and we're excited about it we're excited that we have a new governor and we will go with her wherever she goes so we're excited about it yes there you have it i mean you know people had felt incredibly confident about also for the sort of entirety of this campaign and i'm so excited about it and i'm so excited about it and i'm so excited about it and i'm so excited about it and i'm so excited about it and i'm so excited about it and he had this healthy lead in polling averages above mike collins and but there were concerns for people who are supporting lance bottoms here because she was neck and neck with rick jackson but it really was black voters who kept saying we are coming out young voters are coming out we are going to have our voices heard people thought they could take something from us and we're going to tell them that's not going to be the case this time around guys and tony hilton there is nothing better from but then hearing from voters i mean i'm going to get emotional too it's just just incredible it's an incredible story about someone who's been underestimated keisha lance bottoms through the course of this campaign uh up next we're going to go live to the heart of texas where our friend jacob sobraff is standing by james teller with the tallarico for senate headquarters plus crucial calls and characterizations as election 2026 steps on the gas stay with us on ms now everyone we're back and some things happening during the break we have two new race characterizations in the south carolina senate we are now characterizing the race as lean democratic that's lean democratic in the south carolina senate race and in the ohio senate race the race where sherrod brown is returning and competing again for the senate we are now characterizing that race as lean democratic as a reminder we've already characterized the texas senate race as lean democratic so the senate need the democrats need three races to be called in their favor three more races to be called in their favor to flip the senate uh these are some interesting developments in all of those races and we're going to go now to jacob sobraff who is at james teller he goes election night headquarters in austria texas hey jacob hi jen can you hear me it's it's yeah i can it's crazy here i would i would say that uh the vibes are strong they are hearing the lean democratic um characterization here and people are are going wild if i'm being totally honest with you they're watching us up on the screen let me quickly show you that kind of swing around here they've got ms up on the screen they're watching every second very closely i want to show you that this is the very beginning at the long center come with me connor people are um still lined up the long center for the performing arts is a huge hub you can see connor quickly show that way downtown austin uh in the distance people are super super excited about oh they know we're here now came up on the screen about the prospect of james talarico winning the senate seat in texas it might be a minute before we hear him speak because he's gonna evidently go inside this uh this long center looks like a big opera house the last time i checked there was a very long line of people oh yeah it's still here come over here connor to the end i want to show everybody give you the lay of the land very long line of people that are still trying to get in for the james talarico event um this is a it feels historic uh this is a a massive massive venue tons and tons of people here on a night that i think a lot of these people feel like they never thought that they would see and in fact maybe if we go over and ask some of the people they'll tell us how it feels to be here this gentleman came up to me earlier did you say your name was dan yeah dan i remembered okay and what's your name lynn and lynn where are you from we're from brown rock texas wow what's it like to be here tonight with james talarico potentially potentially i don't have any inside information becoming the next democratic senator if he were to win i i think we're we share so much of the same values and he's such he's such a kind person kind soul and i think we're going to have a lot of you can see it we were up in round rock when he started on march 3rd there were like 120 people there around the old well wow just talking to him but that's when he came to get donuts round rock donuts are his favorite thing to do when he starts a campaign so he was there that day getting donuts i really really appreciate both of you rachel um there's a lot uh a lot that people are waiting for here but i can tell you what they're waiting for see what happens with mr talarico back to you thank you jacob um remarkable okay so i was gone for like 30 seconds and while i was gone what we ended up with was the senate race in south carolina now characterized as lean democratic right the senate race in ohio now characterized as lean democratic yeah in addition to the senate race in texas now characterized as lean democratic yeah would you like me to go away again if you go get some water again who knows what's gonna happen i get up once every three hours and 40 minutes pretty much for the way i mean listen we we started this night by talking about setting expectations here historically in the modern era of american politics which very roughly you can define as post-world war ii there have been three nights three midterm occasions on which the party not in power took both the house and the senate that was in 1946 it happened to truman's democrats it was in 1994 it happened to bill clinton's democrats and it happened to the senate race in 2006 and when george w bush forgive me you were there uh was at the absolute nadir uh in terms of what we thought was possible in terms of american public opinion against a president and his party it is those are the only three times when the party out of power has flipped both seats of congress on the same night it is still almost unimaginable that democrats will do it tonight i have to say i mean and honestly i mean we don't know what's going to happen but we don't know we don't need to get too far into the weeds here but my personal math on this has always been that the democrats need to get to 52 not to 51 because if the democrats get to 51 the issue of john fetterman and his partisan loyalties is very much a live question and the republicans will do anything in order to get fetterman to cross over and he's already seems pretty eager to go so it still seems almost a political impossibility but if you would have told me even with that historical understanding that south carolina would be one of the seats that was considered to be leaning in democrats direction i would have checked out and put myself in rehab i mean that just doesn't make it just doesn't compute in terms of modern understanding of american partisan politics well and i think um obviously i was i was there in 06 and i i think the repudiation is the through line and i think absent knowledge of how this all ends up and of course the fetterman factor absent an understanding of what it means we do know how it ends up we can say that there There is a repudiation of both Donald Trump, whose approval rating is at an historic low, and of the Republicans' refusal to do their constitutionally mandated jobs. They haven't just marched in lockstep with him. They have marched in lockstep with Pete Hegseth, who nobody thinks is doing a very good job at the Pentagon. They have marched in lockstep with Robert Kennedy. We had our first measles death in the state of New York. I mean, we are sicker. We are poorer. We are more divided. We are less informed. I mean, from the gutting that Doge did, it is a repudiation of everything that has happened. And I think that the results will take a minute to sink in. And your math is right. Like, how many seats would it take to govern as though, you know, in control of both chambers? But we know enough from the data that Ali Belshi has been sharing since 5 o'clock Eastern that it is a full frontal repudiation of the Republican Party and Donald Trump. I was at the DCCC, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in 2006. I'm very sorry. But it was a good night for us. But one of the things I've been thinking about is our closing message in that campaign was against the culture of corruption in the Republican Party and the Republican House. It wasn't even as dominant of an issue as it is today. But it was something that resonated in districts. I mean, I remember that night, and we'll see if this night is that kind of night, where we didn't, we'd never even been in contact from the DCCC with some of the people who won house races that night. Carol Shea Porter ended up serving a couple of terms, but I remember thinking, Carol Shea Porter is in the Congress? I mean, we could be in a place like that, which is, to Nicole's point, a massive repudiation of what you're seeing from the party in power. What it means, though, for the party that lost power is what lesson did you learn from this repudiation? And, you know, in 94, I was on the ballot for Comptroller of Maryland, did not make it through the primary. But watched as we moved through the process of having a conversation with America and setting a contract in front of them, right, that they were like, you know what, okay, we'll sign. But then, even with the party in power, having two years later lost that relationship with the American people, and the party out of power having learned a different way to communicate, and allowed for the Clinton administration to really set its footing in a way that good things would come. So everybody's talking about, oh, what are Democrats going to do? Well, Clinton kind of gave you sort of a little bit of a roadmap there. Balanced the nation's budget, reformed welfare, did these things, brought Republicans to the table around some things. And this is going to be, quite honestly, for this president, a moment. When the Democratic leader in the Senate and the Democratic leader in the House says to him, hey, what do you think of this legislation? And if I understand anything about Donald Trump, even in this situation, he's going to sit there and look at it and go, okay. No, he's going to go, can I have my arch? The thing that we can't do, and I, at least for myself, we can't shove this through a normal sieve. There are deals to be done with Trump where you give him something stupid. And you can get relief for the most heinous and damaging and devastating policies hurting the most vulnerable people in the country. Hey, not an arch because it's blocking the view of Arlington, but we'll do something tall in Florida if you stop deporting people in this country seeking asylum. I mean, it's where the insanely stupid will have to meet the dire emergencies of this moment. Ali, can we talk about a couple of Senate races, Iowa and Kansas? Yeah, let's do that. Let's go to, I'm going to start in Kansas. Let's see where we are. 53% in Adam Hamilton has a comfortable lead there. 57.6 versus 39.9 for Roger Marshall, who, you know, kind of flew under the radar a little bit. He's, he's, there've been new ads about him, particularly suing as a doctor, his patients into bankruptcy in some cases with a number of them who got arrested. And then his closing message was this ad about why he had to sue them. Like when you're, when you're explaining that you're explaining too much and you're running into problems. So what is, what's happening here? There's a lot of outstanding vote, still 581,000. And you can see the big bubbles where they're outstanding are still the urban centers where, uh, where, where Adam Hamilton is going to do well, particularly around Johnson County, where he's got his mega church, 104,000 votes, uh, still there. So let's see what, uh, what has to happen for, um, let's go back out to the state and see what has to happen for Roger Marshall to catch up. He's got to get 59% of the outstanding vote. Now here's the thing. There's a lot of rural Kansas that's not actually counted right now. So in a normal world, that wouldn't be impossible to think of. I think that, uh, a Republican can get 59% of the outstanding vote. So that's what we're looking at very closely in Kansas. I want to just flip over to the governor's race there. 53% in Cindy Holsher is leading time Asterson, same situation though. I can't tell you how these votes are breaking down. I can tell you that a lot of smaller counties, um, in Northwestern Kansas are still unavailable to us. So that we're going to watch very closely, but it's very, very much in play for the Democrats. Iowa, 23% of the gubernatorial vote, is in. Look at that performance. Rob Sand is coming in with 65.3 versus Zach Lane at 34.7. Again, there's a few major population centers that are not counted right now. Scott County, Cedar Rapids. We have no vote from that at all, but we do have Polk County, which is where Des Moines is 98% in Rob Sand is now got, uh, he's got 67% of that. Let's compare that to a prior, uh, gubernatorial race. Look at that. Um, in, in 2022, if you go to 2018 governor, Rob Sands, sort of blowing through everybody else in, uh, in Iowa. Uh, let's go to the, uh, uh, let's go to the, hold on a second. Let's pull out of that. And I want to go to the other race there. Josh Turek, 24% in he's running at 60% versus Ashley Hinson's 37.5%. Same story though. Same, same, uh, states that are same counties that are outstanding. I want to go back to Texas for a second and tell you about this lead 54% of the vote in 60 to 39 for James Tallarico. Uh, this is the interesting story. James Tallarico, as what we would expect was leading in the advanced vote. He's leading by more in the day of vote by a lot more. So, so again, what does, what does Ken Paxton need to win? He's got to get 61% of all the outstanding votes. Now, again, in a normal world, you'd say in Texas, a Republican can probably get 61% of the outstanding vote. But when you look at where the vote is outstanding right now, you see it's a lot of urban centers. It's still, uh, it's still Tarrant County. It's still, uh, it's still Dallas County. There's still votes coming in from Houston. We still have nothing zero from Travis County, uh, Austin, Texas. So Cal Tallarico seems to have more runway here than Ken Paxton does. Again, it's too early to tell, but that's what we're watching in Texas. Even though that spread looks insurmountable, it is Texas. And we're not counting the ballot. We're not, we're not calling anything until we've got enough information. We've got an election alert right now in a house race, an interesting one in New Jersey. This is a flip. The Associated Press has projected that Rebecca Bennett will defeat incumbent U.S. Republican Congressman Tom Kaine, uh, in New Jersey's 7th district. This is a very interesting race for lots of reasons. Tom Kaine is part of a dynasty and a household name Republican family in New Jersey. He was sort of mysteriously away from both the campaign trail and his congressional office for, for, quite a long time in this past year. He later resurfaced and said that it had been a serious bout of depression. And he was very candid, um, with his constituents about his need for treatment and the importance of mental health screening and treatment. Uh, but Rebecca Bennett, um, was the Democrats' sort of dream, dream choice, um, dream draft candidate for that race, which they always saw as a winnable race. She's a Navy helicopter pilot. And the Associated Press, um, has now called Rebecca Bennett as the winner of that race. In New Jersey, that is a pickup for the Democrats. Um, I'd like to go back to you, Ali, on South Carolina Senate, if we could. Yep. Um, South Carolina Senate right now, uh, Democrat Annie Andrews versus Republican Darlene Graham. We've got 86% of the vote in. And we've tilted this now, uh, as an expectation that Annie Andrews might be able to pull this out. We continue to get more votes. Here's how this one breaks down. You now have vote from every part of, uh, South Carolina, but not completely. And again, take a look at this. Uh, Annie Andrews dominated, as we've seen in almost every place tonight, dominated the advanced ballots. Um, Darlene Graham is dominating the day of ballots. So she's getting 58% of the remaining vote right now. The day of vote, she's getting 58% of. Ah, she needs 63. So she's outperforming. She's underperforming. What she needs. Now, this has been, these numbers have been moving around all night. It was, first she needed 53, then she needed 57, then she needed 58, 59. Now it's up to 63, which means with each new batch of votes we're getting in, Annie Andrews is outperforming and Darlene Graham is underperforming, which is why we now think this is leaning, uh, Democratic, which is a totally weird conversation that we were having, right? I just want to put this into context. This wasn't one of those things, states that we had in yellow as a toss up, and we weren't really sure. Sure. There were problems with Darlene Graham. Um, and, and since the day she, she took that office and then the day she got into her first debate where she said she didn't really understand international. affairs. But Annie Andrews has been dogged and she has been campaigning and she's been telling us for months that she thinks this is a real thing. I want to remind everybody when Lindsey Graham actually won his primary, he won it with 57 percent, which is also weird in a conservative Republican state with a senator who is well-established, long serving and wasn't crossways with Donald Trump to have to win with 57 percent seemed a little weak. And Darlene Graham didn't win in her first effort to get that nomination. She had to go to a runoff. So she's sort of been limping through this whole thing. And you're seeing the result of that right now. Annie Andrews running a solid tortoise in the hair campaign here. Still have 12 percent to go. But at the moment, she's in the lead. Well, let's stick with this race for a while. Let's go to Josh Eininger, who is at Annie Andrews's campaign headquarters in Charleston, South Carolina. Annie Andrews, the Democrat in this race. Josh, what can you tell us? They're pretty pumped here, Rachel. It's shaping up to be a real. Really great night. Of course, nothing called yet. But every time there's a giant screen showing MSNOW on the corner and every time the information about this race ticks on, there's this huge stream from the crowd. When Ali was just talking, that happened. We're on a delay. So as soon as they realize I'm talking to you, it's probably going to happen again. Very excited here. South Carolina Republicans have been trying to flip the seat forever. I mean, literally forever. There they go again. They hear it. I'm now on the screen there. They've been trying to flip the seat for half a century, more than that. This was the seat not only held by Lindsey Graham, but before that held by Strom Thurmond. And this is the time they think this is actually going to happen. Now that we are reporting that it's leaning Democrat, they've been seeing these numbers all night. And there is a tremendous amount of excitement in this room right now. There's a large crowd on the podium. It's not really clear if she's going to come out just yet. Obviously, the race has. But you can see, Rachel, what's going on here behind me as they see us report on what could be a very big night for South Carolina Republicans, guys. And Josh, with the caveat that I bet you can't hear me, are you hearing from the campaign at all in terms of whether they think they're hitting their numbers, underperforming their numbers, overperforming their numbers? Is tonight matching their expectations or are things going differently than they expected? So, I think, so actually one thing that the campaign had told me earlier, Rachel, is they were concerned, not concerned, but they were pretty confident that the early vote was going to favor them right off the bat. And the concern that a lot of states have about a blue mirage, that the numbers were going to sort of dial back, the lead would whittle down. They were still projecting some degree of confidence, but it was really unclear really what the same-day vote was going to do. But if anything, at times, the number, the gulf has actually widened and then ebbed and flowed a little bit over the course of the night. So, I think as far as that goes in terms of what the campaign was talking about in advance, that could be a bit of a surprise here. Jamie Harrison, who was the last person to try to win this seat six years ago and then went on to be the DNC chair, he's been here all night looking at these numbers actually with us, talking about how there are counties that are, you know, ruby red counties that went, you know, 30 percent for Donald Trump. ago that now, you know, if there's a lead for Darlene Graham, it's a really, really small one. So he's been looking at these numbers here for a while talking about how this night really does look like a very good news night for them. Obviously, everyone's waiting for calls and nobody wants to actually come out and say it, but there's a tremendous amount of optimism in the room here, Rachel. I can see the people, since we've been talking to you, the people behind you have gone from not really knowing you were there to being excited that you were there to dancing behind you like you are in their music video. So we can see the vibes change taking off in real time, Josh. And we'll be back to you. Tell our friend Jamie Harrison that we said hi. If we do get a call anytime soon in that South Carolina race, we're going to want you to grab another mic and bring it and drag him on camera to get his reaction to it. So we're really happy that you're there, Josh. Stay in touch with us. Thank you. Thank you, Rachel. All right. That is funny, actually, to see the room actually kind of lit up and become like the solid gold dancers at this point. It's a party. Can I say just this? I worked in Democratic politics for 25 years and just seeing some of the candidates and the people running is very cool. I mean, Annie Andrews is a doctor. You have a mega church preacher running Adam Hamilton in Kansas. You have a Paralympian running in Iowa and Josh Turek. You have a former teacher in James Tallarico. It's just this message, I think, to people out there who think like I'm not a person who can be in elected office. Like, yes, you are. Yes, you can. Look at all these people. They have lived normal lives. They have done incredible things in their normal lives. And some of them are going to be representing their states in the U.S. Senate. And they're going to bring real world, real experience to that. And I think that is a really cool part of this story. Democrats have had some individual great Senate candidates over the years, Barack Obama, many others. But this field, this field of Democratic candidates is absolutely the best field of Democratic candidates I've ever seen as a group. It's just amazing. And that's where that competitiveness runs all the way out to Kansas in this situation. You know, I think that's an excellent point because it for me, at least looking at this field and then thinking about the institution, both the House and the Senate. How does it change and how do these individuals, whether Democrats take the Senate or not, you're still going to have some very big personalities, to your point, about who've done things, people who've lived life. And when they're sitting in committee hearings, time out. Let me tell you what it was like when I was trying to do this with my kids or achieve this with my parents or solve this problem in the community. That's a different conversation than I think certainly the Senate has heard in a long, long time. So that's going to be very interesting to see how that impact begins to change and how it affects an administration that has been, you know, right now expecting the Senate and the House to just give him what he wants. Well, it's also fresh eyes. I mean, you sort of need a new batch of people to say, you know, WTF. Like what? We don't do anything. We don't we don't we don't do our oversight role anymore because why? I mean, Ken Burns was on my show today at the end of the 5 o'clock hour and basically rebuking the institution for abdicating its job. Even if you are a hardcore partisan and you advocate things that are different from the other party, they don't even do that. They acquiesce to things that we know privately they don't agree with. That's it. We have an important call to make. This is the most important call that we are going to make this year, let alone this night. At this hour, MSNOW can project that the Democratic Party has taken control of the United States House of Representatives. We will likely not know for days or even weeks to come exactly how many seats each party will win, but MSNOW can project that Democrats have won the majority of seats. Democrats will be taking a minimum of 225 seats in the House of Representatives. That means they will be taking power back for Democrats in at least that chamber of Congress. Even if that final margin is relatively small, this is a seismic change in Washington. Again, at this hour, MSNOW can project that the Democratic Party has taken control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Again, we will not know for days or even weeks exactly how many seats each party will win. but the Democrats have won. The Democrats will be taking power back in that chamber of Congress. Even if the final margin is relatively small, it will make a world of difference in Washington, D.C. Retaking the majority means that House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries will likely become this nation's first ever African-American Speaker of the House. Let that sink in for a minute. Congressman Hakeem Jeffries has represented parts of New York City since 2013. If and when he ascends to the House speakership, he will follow the last Democratic leader in the House, who was Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who also made history in becoming the first woman ever elected Speaker of the House. Nancy Pelosi, of course, was known for her skill in understanding when she had the votes to pass a bill, her ability to keep the sprawling Democratic caucus mostly in line. We will now enter the era of Hakeem Jeffries' leadership in that very, very powerful position. With control of the House, Democrats will now have the power to issue subpoenas and to hold hearings into, say, the Jeffrey Epstein debacle, the conduct of the Iran war, the deal Trump made with his own IRS, his son-in-law's financial conflicts of interest. I mean, if they want to bring impeachment charges against, say, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Measles Kennedy, they can now try to do that. Democrats will have the power of the purse. They can also use that to not only try to end the Iran war, but to, say, rein in ICE. And while Democrats in the House will obviously need the cooperation of the United States Senate in order to get any legislation to the president's desk, controlling at least that one chamber allows them to work toward the agenda they have campaigned on from coast states and surprising districts all over this country as we have already seen in these past four hours. We will yet see whether Democrats win the Senate, and the margin there will also matter even if they do. And we will yet see what they can do with whatever power they emerge with after the counting is all done. But authoritarian leaders the world over seek to use the power of the state to monkey wrench elections so they and their party can't be ousted by the voters. Authoritarian leaders the world over seek to consolidate power so the other branches of government wither, and only they, the leader, can act, and without restraint. Well, in the second Donald Trump presidential term, the Democratic Party and America's voters have defied the first of those dynamics in seizing back power for the opposition party in Congress. And now we will see if they can defy that second dynamic as well, whether they can use the full power of the legislative branch, whether they can take up all the space the founders intended when they wrote the powers of Congress as Article One of the United States Constitution. And we will see whether this president reacts to this election and this massive loss like a lame duck or like a wounded bull. But for now, for capital D and small d Democrats, and to everyone who voted for them tonight, that celebration can absolutely begin. This means that any Donald Trump initiated legislation is dead. There will not be another piece of Donald Trump legislation that passes Congress during his presidency. It also means that Jamie Raskin is going to be the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, and it means that Jim Himes is going to be the chairman of House Intel, and it means that Robert Garcia is going to be the chairman of the Oversight Committee. And Hakeem Jeffries, that is incredibly historic. He has a lot of weight on his shoulders, but they're all young. They are energetic. We have all been talking to them. They have been thinking about plans and what they will do and how they will spend their time in their investigations and their subpoenas. And that is an incredibly exciting part of this, I think, for accountability. Congressman Garcia's oversight staff is with him in California today. So he was out campaigning and then meeting with the Oversight Committee staff, and they are ready to go. I mean, they are prepared. They have their subpoenas. They're in four discrete buckets that they've planned out. It's what you mentioned. It's the Epstein files. It's the vast amounts of corruption, and it's ICE, and they are ready to go. They know who they want to talk to. Jamie Raskin, similarly, is already planning to do his work. He's put some of that in motion, and I think it really is as seismic as you just described. And Jim Himes has talked about looking into defense contractors and contractors, I mean, and these contracts that are no-bid contracts that is a big part of the corruption. So it's exciting because they've thought about it. They've been working to Nicole's point, and I think it's just going to be an exciting part of what we have to watch over the next several months. More broadly, beyond the sort of the mechanics of running the House and dealing with these issues, I think the country is going to collectively catch its breath for a moment, and it's going to exhale a little bit of the Trumpism that has polluted its political lungs, its cultural lungs, its economic lungs for the last 18 months, two years. And I think it affords the Democratic Party, and quite honestly, right-minded members of my party, an opportunity to lean into this change in a way in which they can begin to show some cooperation. If you, tomorrow morning, the bell will ring, Lawrence and I know this very well, for the 2028 campaign. You guys who've done those campaigns will know when that bell sounds like it when it goes off. It'll be interesting to see how the Democrats, with this new leadership, the number of governors elected, the historic governors that have been elected tonight, Hakeem Jeffries in the leadership, how they begin to massage that narrative with the voters going into January, and to set in motion a conversation with the country that is long overdue. A lot of what you talk about on your show, a lot of what all of us talk about, that is long overdue. A lot of what you talk about on your show, a lot of what all of us hear from people. I mean, it's not out of nowhere. I mean, we're reflecting back in many respects what our audience are saying to each other at their kitchen tables. And so this is a unique opportunity. It's historic. Yes, it's bold, it's brazen, it's all of that good stuff. But the politics here for me is really intriguing. And I'm excited about that because as America sort of clear out its lungs, I'm hoping the politicians who come into Washington do the same and start fresh. We also, I mean, right now we're projecting a minimum of 225 seats in the House for Democrats. I just was just offset looking at other races that we haven't called. There are races on the board right now that have no business whatsoever being close. Doesn't mean the Democrats can win that race, but I'm talking races that I didn't know at all. And I read like 40 different prep docs, North Carolina 13. Can you North North Carolina 13? I've never seen these people's names before. The Democrat, I'm like, who's this dude? I mean, this is not this. That's 98%. I just want to give you an example because there are right now around the map, there are like a number of seats like this. That was not, no one before tonight had Paul Behringer and District 13 in North Carolina on the races to watch list. I guarantee you because I read every last one of them. We haven't called that race yet. It was 98% in. And by the way, it's going to get called pretty soon. But I just want to show you this little trick I've got. Well, how much he needs to get, not needs to get greater than 100%. You know what I mean? He's going to win. The point being that, you know, 225 is what we are estimating as the essentially the floor. Yeah. There's a lot of night left and there's a lot of races that are not called. In terms of what that actual margin is going to be, we're going to see as the night goes forward. But there are, I'm just telling you, spent a lot of time with the map back there. There are a lot of races still on the board right now that have no business under anything that looks like normal politics. And I'm even talking normal politics in the Trump era. I'm talking 2018, which is pretty good night for the Democrats that, that have any business being on the board right now that are still contested on the board. We have a change in a characterization of one important United States Senate race. This is a Senate race in the state of Kansas. We do not have a call here, but we have a change in the characterization of this race with 64% of the vote in. This now, now characterizes this race, Kansas Senate race as lean Democratic. Again, this is an incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall facing a challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, who is the leader of a very, very, very large Methodist church. Um, Adam Hamilton has run an essentially flawless campaign. Roger Marshall has run whatever the opposite is of that. But in this Kansas race, um, the characterization of lean Democratic is, is, is. Like that same characterization we saw in South Carolina just takes a lot to absorb. And yes, a lot of it is campaign specific and candidate specific, but you cannot ignore the political geography here and what that means. I mean, we've all said it on all of our shows, but they have not elected a Democrat to the Senate in the state of Kansas since 1932. Yeah. Which is just like, that's crazy. That, that this is happening right here. This is one of the races. And I would say the Ohio governor's race is this for me too. And also the Senate race in Texas, where I think we've all been waiting for kind of, um, the cruelty and the cynicism, the fever of it to break. You know, you keep saying like, this is going to break the fever. This is so awful. You know, this is so misogynistic or whatever it may be. And I feel like it may be breaking. I mean, Roger Marshall is a person who sued people who he treated as an OBGYN, and many of them were sent to jail. Okay. That, that I think was a, um, a, a big moment in this campaign. Um, and then he made an ad about it. And then he made an ad about it. And Adam Hamilton exudes decency. I mean, he exudes humanity. He is a person who speaks about things and issues in a way that isn't particularly partisan. Cause I don't think he could win in Kansas, even in this environment that way. I also don't think he's particularly partisan. I don't think he's particularly partisan either, but, but it is, it is an example. And I think the Ohio governor's race is this for a different reason of just humanity and empathy. Winning over, uh, the cruelty that we have been just dealing with for so many years. I don't know if it's winning though, so much as it's people finding their line, right? Like, like, like, yes, I think the more decent people will prevail, but it's also, I think we've all spent 10 years on live TV being like, Oh, that's not the line access Hollywood. That's not it. Good people on both sides. That's not the line. Okay. Note the line may be in Ohio and the governor's race, making an ad with the destitute birth mother of someone whose husband raped her 12 year old. Like that might be like, and I, and I think to your point about exhaling, what we're exhaling is a lot of really traumatic stuff. I mean, the, the, the country has been through a lot of traumatic things where, where things that should sink people politically, like gravity, no longer held Trump has floated around in space without any gravity. And I, I hope that it's what you're saying that decency is winning, but I think it's a lot of people just sort of looking at the TV and being like, okay, yeah, that's my line. Maybe the line may be exhaustion of it. It just may be the totality of it. I don't think we know yet. There's, there's the human element of here, but there's also the behavior element of it here. And I think that when we started talking about, when you're talking about who's going to be head of the oversight committee, who's going to be head of the judiciary committee, what sort of subpoenas are we expecting? expecting and investigations are we expecting from a new, we can now say, Democratic-controlled house, which is what we are going to have going forward. The other thing to keep in mind here, just in terms of the health of our republic, is that it is not allowed to have a financial conflict of interest with a company that then you give a government contract to. It's not allowed. It's criminal. And maybe this Department of Justice is not going to prosecute that. But it must be pursued, exposed, and adjudicated to the extent that it can be by congressional committees, and it will be. You can't have absolutely rabid corruption. You can't have violence toward not only immigrants, but also American citizens, uninvestigated and unanswered in the streets. You can't have people giving their family members and their own companies that they're financially associated with. Government contracts. You can't have no-bid contracts going to people who aren't qualified to do the work, who are then quintupling the amount that they're spending, still failing, and then collecting bonuses. And it turns out they've got connections to the people who are giving them those sorts of appropriations. I mean, you just, those things aren't just like, wow, that sure got dirty. That smells bad. People don't like it. No, those things must be answered. In the same way, on January 6th, when I sat in our studio on January 6th, 2021, and we watched that guy carrying the podium across the chamber. And I looked at it and I thought, oh, this means a lot of things about that guy and what's happening in this room and Donald Trump and the future of our republic. But you know what I see when I look at that? I see a crime. And that needs to be prosecuted as a crime. Political violence is violence, which is illegal. Corruption is illegal. Conflicts of interest are illegal. Nepotism is illegal. And all of this stuff will be pursued so that it doesn't become de facto the law of the land and the way that we conduct ourselves as a country moving forward. And what you're seeing is a kind of a sort of antibody reaction, right? Like of the body politic to that, to that corruption. You know, the, uh, what they have to face now in corruption world in Washington are congressional subpoenas. And you can sit there if you're Elon Musk and say, you know what, I'm not going to show up. And the reason I'm not going to show up is that Todd Blanche won't prosecute me for contempt of Congress. And that might be true for exactly two years, because tonight with the way this wave is shaping up, if you are the subject of a congressional investigation next year that you're refusing to cooperate with, you are very likely to be the subject of a grand jury investigation run by a democratically controlled justice department with a democratic president in the White House two years from now. This is what these trend lines are showing. This is a, a very, very powerful wave tonight. And even if the Democrats don't pick up one more Senate seat, if they don't win another one, the Republicans in the Senate are now terrified. If you're, if, if, if they don't win Kansas tonight, what about next time? What if they're with Texas tonight? What about next time? If they don't win South Carolina tonight, what about next time? And if they do, and you are the current remaining Republican Senator from South Carolina, you know what you are? A four. You're afraid. And you're no longer afraid of Donald Trump. You're afraid of those voters who just sent Annie Andrews to come in and sit here beside you in the United States Senate for South Carolina. When you are elected from a state that elects both Democrat and Republican senators, it completely changes both of them. And they both move toward this more moderate spot. And that's what you can expect to happen with any Republican Senator who is now suddenly joined by a Democrat from their state. Let me give you one piece of news about Florida. We have had calls tonight in both the governor's race in Florida and the Senate race in Florida. Those have both gone to Republicans. However, the Associated Press is now projecting that Florida Democrats have flipped enough seats in the state legislature that they have broken the Republican super majorities in both houses of the state legislature in Florida. So Republicans have held a trifecta in Florida, meaning the governor's race. The governor's seat, the House and the Senate control for the entire 21st century. And they will retain their trifecta. But as Byron Donalds becomes governor of Florida, he cannot govern at will. He cannot govern with Republican super majorities in either the House or the Senate. And to the extent that it matters in terms of Florida state politics and Florida state political vibes, we are seeing a lot of congressional seats in Florida that Republicans thought were theirs for the taking instead. We are seeing a lot of congressional seats in Florida that Republicans thought were theirs for the taking instead. I mean, I don't it's possible. I mean, when you put your hair washing days on the calendar and you have a shared calendar with your family, sometimes those things get bumped. Yeah, I don't know. But Ted Cruz life changed tonight in a big way. He's got voters in Texas that he did not know about. And he and the big question in American politics now and the big question in Washington politics tonight is who's afraid of Donald Trump? And the answer is no one. And they all were. Every Republican was afraid of Donald Trump yesterday. Every single one of them. And now none of them will be. And that opens up a lot, including the possibility of veto proof votes. You could it is not out of the question that you could get a two thirds vote to override a Trump veto being joined by Republicans who saw what happened tonight. I think this is such an important point about what we're watching ahead. I mean, because next two and two years from now, I'm just remembering off the top of my head so people can fill in other ones. Iowa has a Senate race. Kansas has a Senate race. Does Texas is Ted Cruz up? These are these. Nothing motivates people in elected office more than political survival. We've all seen that every House member is up again in two years. Donald Trump could become the lamest of lame ducks in American history tonight because they're going to look at it and think that guy doesn't have political power. I need to care about my own political power. I need to find ways to work with Democrats to vote with them not to vote against raising the minimum wage or on housing. Or whatever it may be. And it could change behavior, not for moral reasons, I wish, but for political survival reasons here. Your point about the rule of law, though, I think is really important because I think even people that trusted the polls and thought it would be a huge Democratic night worried that the three institutions where Trump can do the most harm, the Pentagon, the Department of Justice and the FBI and the intelligence agencies are still places will have both hands on the steering wheel and no Democrat can really grab them other than powers of the purse. But the rule of law is interesting. Because Todd Blanch won't prosecute those things, the people engaged in corruption will likely think they have immunity and Trump may even seek to pardon them. But the specter of an lawless DOJ to the degree that it becomes a liability. I mean, if Republican constituents, the ones that are left after tonight, say, well, why are there two systems of justice? I mean, why are fraudsters running free? I mean, if there becomes a political demand for accountability for criminality and corruption, the Justice Department under Todd Blanch will have a hard time continuing down the path it's on. Now, the Pentagon is more opaque, as is the CIA and the intelligence agencies, but it could be an indirect check on the complete lawlessness of Todd Blanch. Oh, yeah. And the overt selling of pardons. Correct. It's going to be a harder thing to keep doing. We have an election alert for you in a House race in Kentucky. The first race that we started talking about the night. Kentucky 6, the congressional district. It says Democratic former Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo flipping the former seat of Andy Barr to the Democratic Party. Andy Barr left the House to run for Mitch McConnell's U.S. Senate seat. But he's faced he was facing Republican Ralph Alvarado, who is the past running mate of a scandal ridden former Republican governor named Matt Bevin. And Dembo is considered a real long shot here tonight. People were watching the margin here, not his prospect for winning, but the margin by which he would lose to project how well Democrats might do tonight. Zach Dembo, the Associated Press now says, has won Kentucky 6, Ali. I no disrespect to Zach Dembo, but he was the control group. Right. We had we were using Zach Dembo early in the evening to tell you what this might look like, not to suggest that he might win the race. This is wild. Zach Dembo beating Ralph Alvarado. I just want to give you a sense of exactly how wild it was. Let's take a look at the 2024 House seat. Andy Barr, who went on 63 percent. I mean, this is crazy. Let's look at the 2024 presidential rate. Donald Trump got 56.6 percent. This there was no world. This is to the Chris Hayes school of thought that this wasn't one we were studying a lot of. Certainly, Zach Dembo's name came up because because it comes up because you want to. But it's a control room because it was it was finishing early and we were going to get some vote. So that's a weird development. Michigan, I just want to tell you, because people might be wondering why we're not talking about Michigan. 23 percent of the votes are going to go to Michigan. You all remember that very long night for the primary in Michigan. Michigan counts votes really, really slowly. And even with 20% of the votes, you're 23%. Most of the population center in Michigan is right around Detroit, Wayne County, which is only 4% in. Macomb County is 14% in. Oakland is 55% in, and Abdul-Sahed's winning that very comfortably. Washtenaw County is 67%. Abdul-Sahed winning that very comfortably. But I'm only telling you this to tell you that it's going to be a while before we get down to Michigan. Let's go back to Texas, 58%, 57% in. James Tallarico's winning with 58%. Let's take a look at how this is going down. Paxton is getting less of the day of vote than he's already got, so he's getting 33% of the day of vote. Is that not crazy? I'm sorry. Yes, it's crazy. That's a very strange dynamic, right? Yes, this is very, very unusual. All over the country, we're talking about how the day of vote favors the Republicans. That's right. And in Texas, not only does it not favor the Republicans- It's not even close. But it's worse for the Republicans than the advance vote. That's exactly correct. We've seen this invert in every state except for Texas. Because of this- Good job, Elon. Paxton, yes, correct. That's not money well spent. Paxton needs 61% of the remaining vote. Now, again, in a state like Texas, in a normal year, you'd say the Republican candidate, there's a lot of white on this board. There's a lot of places that the vote isn't in, so he could probably make it up. But again, I bring you to my little bubble page. That's vote outstanding. Big bubbles are lots of vote outstanding. Small bubbles are very little vote outstanding. So in all the places where there are small bubbles, that's where the vote isn't in. That may be the case. That may favor Ken Paxton. All the places with big bubbles are likely to favor Ken- James Tallarico. So that is not looking great for Ken Paxton. Let's quickly take a look at the governor's race in Texas as well. 58%, same percentage in. In fact, when you look at these two races, the numbers are very, very similar, right? James Tallarico is running a bit ahead of Gina Hinojosa, which sort of makes sense. Ken Paxton running behind Greg Abbott also makes sense. But the vote totals are not far off. She's got 3.3 million. He's got 3.4 million. So it's the same. It's the same story. It doesn't seem like people are really ticket splitting in Texas. If they're going out to pull the lever for James Tallarico, they're largely pulling the lever for Gina Hinojosa as well. Just taking a quick look. We don't have this one's really interesting. This is Bobby Polito's district, Monica de la Cruz. We're looking into this, why there's zero percent of the vote in. That can't really be true because we've got vote everywhere else in Texas. So we're trying to figure it out. We're also waiting for vote in Austin. Greg Casar is running there, but we also haven't got that vote in for James Tallarico. This is going to be big numbers, probably for Casar and for Tallarico. So just to say why we haven't called, why the AP hasn't called the Senate or the governor's race in Texas yet, because overall, there's still a lot of vote outstanding from a sheer numbers perspective. We are looking at four and a half million votes, heavily favoring James Tallarico right now for James, for Ken Paxton to win. He's got it. He's got it. He's got it. He's got it. He's got to do better than 60 percent of the outstanding vote. Again, not impossible, but looking less and less likely. Ali, while you're warmed up here and still going, can we look at Ohio, please? Yeah, absolutely. Let's go back to Ohio, where in the Senate race, again, very close, 79 percent in. And as we expected, because of the vote methodology, we expected that this would tighten up. Right. Sherrod Brown got 58 percent of the advance vote. He's now got less of the day of vote. John Husted 53 percent of the of the day of vote. But and he needs 50 percent to catch up. That's where this is tricky. He's actually, for the moment, outperforming what he needs to do in the rest of the state. When you look at what's outstanding, though, same thing. The biggest bubbles, including Toledo, which we're waiting for, the biggest bubbles, Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton and Akron are all favoring Sherrod Brown. So statistically, this one is just a hard one to call. Let's quickly go to the governor's race in Ohio. Same thing. Seventy nine percent in the spreads, just a little bit more here. But it's it's a it's a similar picture. Again, not ticket splitting in this race. What will be curious because Vivek Ramaswamy is underperforming John Husted right now is whether that attack ad, that gross attack ad that he put out is causing some people who might have actually voted for John Husted to not pull the lever for Ramaswamy. Maybe they didn't vote for Acton, but they may not. They may be withholding their vote for Ramaswamy. I may be pushing my luck here, but could we talk Iowa Senate for a second? Absolutely. Let's go to Iowa. Let's go there. There's a governor race. Let's go to the Senate race. Thirty nine percent in. Again, it's taken a while to count these votes. Josh Turek enjoying a very healthy lead. But there are big centers here, including Davenport and Cedar Rapids that where we don't don't have a lot of vote in. We do have a lot of it in from the Sioux City area. We do have all of it in almost from Polk County, but we have zero from Lynn County and zero from Scott County. So let's just take a quick look here. We've got say, well, let's say statewide, we've got eight hundred and thirty three votes outstanding and separating them right now are forty seven thousand votes, which is, again, just makes this race a little too early to call. Josh Turek is outperforming at the moment, but we got to wait a little while to see what happens here. All right, Ali, thank you very much. I know we're putting you through your paces. My pleasure. We're basically just getting warmed up. So I rescind my apology. Can't really mean your apology if you're not actually going to stop doing what you're doing. We do have a. Change in our characterization of the state of play in the United States House of Representatives. Now, most importantly, we have already projected that the House control will go to the Democratic Party. But what we're also looking at here is minimum numbers of seats. You need two hundred and eighteen seats to control the House right now. Our estimated minimum number of seats for the Democratic Party is two hundred and thirty five, which means they will not only control the House, they will control the House with a substantial majority just for rough comparison sake. And every election is different. You're always swinging from a different starting point. But I believe that in 2006 and that huge midterm win for the Democrats in 2006, right in the middle of George W. Bush's second term, the number of Democratic seats then was two thirty three. Again, we're looking at a minimum two thirty five for Democrats as of tonight. In 2018, which is another big midterm that was in the middle of Donald Trump's first term in office, Democrats were at, I believe it was two thirty five. And right now we are able to project that Democrats will have a minimum of two hundred and thirty five. So we are talking about a House Democratic majority that is not only bigger than what Mike Johnson has been not enjoying, but is actually historically a very large Democratic majority. And those numbers, again, from our projection, that's a minimum. It could only go up from there. Ari, you're back with us. It's a blue wave and then some. And as you've been discussing, it's a governing majority that allows you to do a ton of things. It was a big deal when the Epstein vote led to what we call veto proof and overriding because Republicans came aboard. Now, as discussed, you don't need a ton of Republicans to come along. You don't need a ton of Republicans to come along. You can come aboard. You can subpoena. You can build the coalition. And you don't need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind blows. I think everyone in the country who follows politics at all says, oh, this MAGA thing is over. And then you have the wider context, which is Donald Trump and the Republican Party have never done well when people vote while he's in office. And here again, we had this reminder. What is it like to have this person? This is what it's like. This is what it's like in your pocketbook. This is what it's like in your prices. This is what it's like to start wars you didn't want. And as many people said, wow, he lies. He lied about everything. For some people, that was awakening. Other people already knew that. But now everyone's on the same page. So it's funny to say we are not as polarized as we thought. We are united here around wanting a better economy, less corruption and no more Trump. There has been, you know, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2024, like a series of elections, sat at this desk and Donald Trump, who is this strange and aberrant figure in American politics and a desire of many people. And I'm sure many people watching this television right now to see the country repudiate him, not just beat him, not just win an election, but to say like, heck no, no, absolutely not. We're not interested in this. And that didn't happen in 2016. It didn't really happen in 2018, where they picked up a bunch of Republican Senate seats. It didn't really happen even in 2020, even though, you know, Joe Biden didn't win that election. There was not, it was not a, you know, they, won by four points and they won both houses by the narrowest margins. Dem control of a minimum of 235 seats. The possibility on the board right now, we have four seats as lean Dem, doesn't mean we've called them yet, but four seats as lean Dem. And those, you know, those include big reaches. At 1030 right now, what you're seeing take shape, not fully, is something that looks much more like a repudiation, an expression of disgust, an expression of exhaustion. That was not the case in 2018. It was not the case in 2020. This is so far, at this point in the evening, a different kind of election than what we saw, even in the other ones, when people remembered what it's like to have Donald Trump as president. This looks more like an expression of something deeper than just prices are high. I don't like the direction of the country. We have an election alert in a house race in Pennsylvania. And this is one that I had actually been keeping pretty close. and this is the seventh congressional district. This is a flip, the incumbent Republican Republican congressman here in the in the seventh congressional district in Pennsylvania. His name is Ryan McKenzie. He has been ousted from office. He will be replaced by a Democrat named Bob Brooks, who's a firefighter from Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. He's a biker. He's a union president. Bob Brooks, you see, was 78 percent in handily, handily ousting Ryan McKenzie from Congress. And a Democrat will flip that seat. There's a number of vulnerable Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania. Ryan McKenzie was in Trump plus three district. There's also Rob Resnahan in a Trump plus eight district. Scott Perry in a Trump plus five district. And even Brian Fitzpatrick is in a district that Kamala Harris won. If Ryan McKenzie has gone down that handily to Democrat Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania seven, I think all three of those other Pennsylvania Republicans will be out. Republican incumbents have to be looking down, looking pretty seriously at the end of their political careers tonight. Governor Josh Shapiro, I should say, has been talking about these four seats and making a bet on these four seats for many, many, many months now. And, you know, we got a lot of we a lot of time talking about 2028. We don't have to talk about 2028 tonight, but there's going to be a measuring of whose political power made a difference. And if he wins three of these four, I think that's going to be part of the conversation. We got much more ahead on what has turned out to be a huge night for the Democratic Party already. And honestly, the night is still young. We have the very closest eye on Senate races in Texas and Ohio and South Carolina. Yeah, we haven't even really gotten into Michigan. As we go to break, here is Senator John Ossoff following his reelection in the great state of Georgia. The American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption and incompetence of the failed lame duck President Donald J. Trump. We're all in this together. That we're not just one United States, we're one United People. E Pluribus Unum. Out of many, one. ♪ ♪