Speaker 1On Sky Sports Radio, time to talk to Vince Icardi.
Speaker 2Vince, how are you, mate? I'm fantastic, Dave, as always. Love the weekend that's before us coming up. I actually love every weekend, especially if there's racing on. It just makes life happy.
Speaker 1It does, it does. It's just a good time of the year. I don't know, I'm just excited. I'm excited for the weekend to unfold. A bit of good weather around, and I might have a little crack tonight, Vince. Why not? A little barrier trial, eh?
Speaker 2Why not? I don't disagree. If you're feeling up to it and you're tuned in, why not?
Speaker 1I'm like one of those, I say, I'm like one of those old paces you see going around at Northam on a Friday night. Start 145. I'll just keep going around and around. I mightn't win every start, but I'll pay my way, all right? I'll pay our way. What are we backing in this Golden Rose? You're the man. You've got all the billion-dollar computers. Is it Guesthouse? Is it something else? What are we backing in the Golden Rose? Thanks to Daily Sectional, by the way,.com.au, Vince Icardi. The airwaves are yours.
Speaker 2Yeah, appreciate that, Dave. It's a fantastic race. Of course, the starting point has to be Guesthouse. The price, what is the current TAB price?
Speaker 1Current price for Guesthouse. Was around that $2.30 mark. I don't think he's changed. I'll just refresh to make sure I can see it here. So tomorrow, Rose Hill, Golden Rose race on the card. Still $2.30. Still $2.30.
Speaker 2Okay. Well, maybe it's a price because $1,400, I'm not sure. The reality is this horse has the score on the board as far as class performance goes. It's already done it. 1.7 lengths better than. Better than the benchmark standards where it stands today with the possibility of potentially rising further. I thought about all the different things that could possibly bring this runner unstuck other than the fact that maybe there'll be a couple of climbers which we'll touch on in terms of improving. If it was a brutally fast run race, maybe that would expose Guesthouse somewhat, possibly. But I can't see where that brutal. Brutal tempo is going to be. And I just feel that whilst there'll be some speed in the race, I just cannot think to myself in any way that it's going to be brutal. So I've sort of marked a benchmark. Possibly two lengths faster than the standard is what I'm looking at. And then where does that position Guesthouse? I felt that as close as it could be would be two and a half, three lengths below benchmark, which would mean the horse would be no further back than four lengths from the leader. Maybe. Maybe five if there's a bit more speed than what I'm projecting. So then I just go to the great tools, Dave, is just go to the GMU ground made up. And I look at it and I go, wow, you've got a seven lengths capability in terms of the way you can close. Therefore, you can afford to give the pack a four or five length head start. And you've got a great opportunity to reel them in. There's only a couple of other horses that sit on or near that in terms of their close. Closing capability. The other runner that really has a strong signal is St. Goddard. It's closing capability in terms of ground made up is just immense. 8.9 possibly could eclipse it. Now, if it's in front of a Dave, it might not be that easy for Guesthouse. It might not be, but Goddard has to take that next step. That's the big key with that horse. And the other runner that I didn't want to completely rule out, and this is, again, playing Maltese, doing, you know, the exotics. I do feel that Central Europe is about to take the next step. I looked at that performance last start at Rose Hill. Loved the way the horse closed out very strongly over the last 400 metres, giving a big signal that this horse is ready to improve sharply. I felt that the horse didn't appreciate the slowdown between the eight and the four of a couple of lengths, which also slightly stifled the close. Not going to have that problem here. This race is going to have decent speed. This horse will get its opportunity. Now, it's not drawn the best day. So when we look at all these things, we do come back to Guesthouse being the one to beat from St. Goddard and Central Europe. That's where I'm at with that race.
Speaker 1Okay. St. No one's really mentioned Central Europe. You're the only one that's sort of thrown that out there, right? And sort of scrubbed him and said, no, thank you. Well, it's drawn 13th.
Speaker 2So. It looks obvious that the horse may have to push back. But I feel when there's some speed in the race, like I'm forecasting, I feel that Tim Clark may have some options. He may not have to push himself all the way back. He could probably find himself in a scenario where maybe he's only, you know, sitting behind someone like Guesthouse. It's possible that that could happen. But if he goes all the way right to the back, then I understand. Well, maybe, you know, people may be cold on him. But I would not be cold on this horse. We're not even close to his top.
Speaker 1Yeah, right. Okay. Manicato on Sunday. What wins? Vince Icardi Daily Sectionals.
Speaker 2Yeah. This is another crazy race. Of course, you know, a lot of talk about, you know, what's going to happen with the rail being out so wide. But, well, I went through and had a look at a whole heap of data going back to around 2015 to current. You get to at least assemble a little bit more inside of what might happen. And everything sort of points to that more than 50% of the winners will come from the on-pace pack. And that's not a big surprise because you're going to be hard in the lanes. And what I mean by the lanes, Dave, is where the speed or the best part of the track is going to be. And it does make it harder for the back markers. They need certain sort of pace scenarios to be able to change that. Now, in this race, what will the tempo be? This is what I'd been trying to understand. Now, I know Rothweil's a horse that also likes to go forward with beer walk. But Rothweil just goes forward these days in a scenario not to go and totally dictate or control tempo. If another horse is going to take the front like beer walk, he's going to be happy to sit behind it. And therefore, it's up to Nash. And I just feel that Nash won't have to be going crazy up the front. So, it can make it a little bit challenging for the back markers. And these are the horses that I want at the table. Charmstone trial was phenomenal. Absolutely phenomenal. I marked it borderline winning trial. And I can't believe what price had a horse today.
Speaker 1Well, I like Charmstone. So, probably this is a negative for you, Vince, that I like Charmstone. You'll be like, oh, no. $19.05. I spoke to Mick Price. He said he can't have her any better. I can't believe she's that price, to be honest.
Speaker 2Yeah, so she definitely doesn't deserve to be that price. This is a horse that turns up and races superbly first up. And the trial indicates, just the way it closed out, like, amazing. I just said that was race. Pace Simulation got this horse as good as they've ever had it, but first up. And that excites me because this stable can screw them right down fresh. And I just got this feeling that this is what's going to happen with Charmstone. Now, it's not the greatest barrier. So, Damien, we'll have to, you know, think about how we're going to manage that. Then we've got to look at Jimmy. Jimmy Star. Now, you know, initially, Dave, have we got a couple of minutes? Or just, I don't want to. You've got hours. You've got hours, Vince. Take it over. I initially was trying to not have Jimmy prominent in my thinking process. Because I just thought, first up, I know Blinkers. But then I went through it. Okay, now I'm silly if I can't pay some respect to this horse. I've got to give it some respect. And I do feel it can be competitive. But I'm not marking it as the one to beat. The other one that we cannot dismiss, particularly if we're on clean ground, is Michael Adeola. There was no fluke last start. I am super confident, had the track been drier, the horse wins by further. So there's a little bit of an illusion about that race. That the margin would have been far bigger. So I'm paying respect to that. And then one. And this is, again, I was just looking at Maltese, Dave. I was looking at Exotic. I was looking at Maltese. The other run that I was dramatically taken by last start was Beedman. I just don't know if he's going to have a flatline run. But that run last start said to me, you were ready to win. Is it this start or the one after? So I wanted to put that on the table. But for me, I'm just sitting here. Charmstone's the one at a big price. And the way I like to bet, Dave, as you know, I like to have a bit more for a place than the win. I go, roll the dice. Okay, if I get beat, so be it. be it, but it's going to be fun watching at that price.
Speaker 1I like it. I like it, Vince Icardi. You've given me some confidence leading into the weekend. Mate, you enjoy your weekend of sport, of racing. And dailysectionals.com.au, where can we find the website and where? Well, we can find the website by being online. But what can we find on that website?
Speaker 2Well, we're going to have all the final editions, even for Mornington tomorrow. Because I've had a bunch of people saying, oh, but we want Mornington. We don't want just Corfitt. So I'll make sure that all the metros are up for Saturday and Sunday, of course, for Corfield. And Rose Hill is there right now for anybody that wants it.
Speaker 1Good on you, Vince. Take care.
PodcastTranscript AI