🔮 Using Week 1 Data To Make Sharp Predictions

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We'll be digging into some of his favorite matchups for the week. And then also one thing I'm excited to do throughout the entire show is a little focus on Thursday night football. So if you're looking to get some bets in, if you got fantasy action, we got a good one tonight with Bills and Lions. We'll be digesting all of that today, but let's get it going right now. Cups back in the saddle. We got week one. We got week one in the books. How are you feeling? Yeah, back in the saddle, Pete. Thanks for having me. It feels like it's been a while since I've been on the channel, but I'm very excited to finally, yeah, get into our show that was promised after Show You Think You Can Tout. So, yeah, every Thursday, 10 a.m. Eastern, we'll be here. We'll be chopping it up. We'll be talking about the data from week one. We'll be talking about some things to look forward to in week two. I'm stoked, man. Let's do it. Yes. And, man, it is, you know, yesterday I spent. A lot of the day working through Dwayne's utilization report on Monday's Best Ball Breakfast. I was pulling it up and having a ton of fun just tabbing through all of the utilization. I mean, there's so many different things we can talk about. Like, going super macro, how do you think about week one? We get a legitimate data point. Like, these games matter. Teams are trying to win, and so that gives us a hint at what they're trying to do. But we also know there can be noise within these small samples. So, even from, like, a modeling perspective, how do you think? About a one-game sample? How much, you know, actionable takeaways are there for us within it? Yeah, that's a good question. I would put quite a bit of stock, I guess, not into the box score, but the utilization. Like you mentioned that Dwayne does the utilization report, expected fantasy production. Those sort of things I do put quite a bit of stock into because I think it tells us a lot about how they were leveraged by their teams. What the team has in mind for their role in 2026. So, those are the type of things I'm looking at that, you know, I will say, okay, I'm going to make a note of this because this player played a totally different role in 2026 than they have in the past. That is something that's very important. If they just go out there and play the same role, they have the same underlying usage from years before, but maybe they have two touchdowns. Like, that's not going to move the needle a whole lot for me. But it really is like that underlying usage that you've mentioned that I think is like the biggest thing you want to pay attention to in week one. And also, it opens up some windows, too. Potentially buy low on guys that have really promising usage, but don't actually perform in the first week of the year. Yeah, and we're going to hit on a few specific situations today. And then, definitely, if we have a little bit of time, we can throw to the chat if there's some other ones that you guys would like us to discuss. I would be remiss not to get a coffee pour in here for Raylish. You know, one of the nice things, we got the portfolio review 10 a.m. We do have the morning shows on Thursday, which are, once again, presented by our friends. I know it's early for you, Cups, there on the West Coast, 7 a.m. You got some coffee here for me? I've got a little bit of like half a scoop of pre-workout because I'm going to go to the gym after this. I'm drinking half a scoop throughout the show, half a scoop once the show's over, and then we're going to go hit some legs. All right, there you go. You got the pre-workout. I got the Bacillus and Sons coffee. And I should also mention, we're going to do some more coffee giveaways today. I have three promo codes for 12-ounce bags of coffee. So, stay tuned throughout the show. I will mix those in, and you can look for the hashtag. But without further ado, let's get to the pour. There it is, your coffee ASMR for the morning. Bacillus and Sons. Use promo code PETE for 25% off your first order and the free shipping. But, Cups, let's talk about the Green Bay Packers. Because just this entire offense was like a mixed bag of, like, the highs were high. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, who we're going to discuss. The lows were low. Marshawn Lloyd and the offensive line here. But I do think we want to kind of focus a little bit on these Packers pass catchers today. What jumped out to you with them? Yeah, so, I feel like I need to, I owe an apology to the people for the slander I was spreading on Matthew Golden's name this offseason. I just simply couldn't get behind him. You know how, if you're familiar with my content, you'll know that I do, like, year two comps for these players based on their prospect profiles and their rookie production. Matthew Golden came out very poorly in his year two comps. Like, his prospect profile was already bad when you looked at it by itself. Just considering he wasn't super productive at Texas. And, you know, the only thing he really had going for him was the fact that he was super athletic and came out to the combine and scored really well. Didn't do a whole lot in his rookie season alone. So, when you combine those two things, bad prospect profile and an underperforming rookie season, his 20 closest comps were not good. So, I was essentially out on Matthew Golden at cost. I was ready to sell him in Dynasty for whatever I could get. He shoved me in a locker in week one. That was kind of a trend with a couple players. Matthew Golden being one of them. So, the main thing I wanted to touch on with Matthew Golden, he's the second row here. Utilization report, which you can see we have the yellow here. That's the utilization score over. Fantasy Life, 87 for Matthew Golden in week one. If I click into this, wide receiver seven in utilization in week one specifically, only behind just the absolute studs. And, I mean, for the Cokeheads, they'll love this as well. But we have Nico, J. Jeff, Chris Olave, JSN, Jalen Coker, Amin Ross St. Brown, and then Matthew Golden coming in at wide receiver seven in utilization. He played the legitimate wide receiver one role. The one that you could trust on a week-to-week basis in terms of utilization, that was Matthew Golden. I know Christian Watson was the one that got there in terms of fantasy points. You can see Christian Watson had 32.7 PPR points in week one. But his expected fantasy point production was only 16.1. Still very solid. And you can see his utilization was also very solid. This was right around Matthew Golden, a little bit below. But Matthew Golden, 20 expected fantasy points. Had him at wide receiver three. Only behind Amin Ross St. Brown and Chris Olave. If there's any sort of window, you know, I want to be quick to kind of adjust to these things. I don't know how you feel about this type of stuff, people. Like, even if it's a player that I had some priors on that I was pretty hesitant about, if I see them come out and be utilized like this in an offense that I project to be really solid this year, I want to make moves for this guy quick. Especially since he didn't go out there and light the world on fire like in the box score. He had a really solid week, but it wasn't one that, like, he's not unacquirable right now. You know what I mean? So I'm very interested in Golden. What do you think? No, I'm right there with you because it seemed like the usage tracks with what the team was telling us all offseason, right? They were like, this is our dude. All of the early practices. He's playing in the two wide receiver sets. They felt comfortable moving on from Dobbs and Wicks specifically because of the development they were hoping for from Matthew Golden. The pushback has always kind of been he wasn't. Good as a rookie like he was not good. And so how do you square this? Like they're going to give him a lot of opportunity. But if you're not good, eventually the team has to try other stuff. I would say this debut was encouraging for him of saying like, hey, this wasn't him making a bunch of boneheaded mistakes. You know this the opportunity he got seemed to be justified. And so I'm with you. I think this is trending in the right direction into also kind of like look at it in a few different spots that are kind of interesting. The market. Is still heavily into Christian Watson to a pretty staggering degree. So like I just pulled up the BR ADP this week. Christian Watson 17.9 ADP. That means he's going to be 100% drafted. Matthew Golden 35.4. That means he's going to be sub. If this holds like sub 20% drafted, you can go look at the the pick them lines. Christian Watson 59 and a half receiving yards this week. Matthew Golden 49 and a half. Like you said, like that window could close quickly. It does seem like a week to really leave. Lean into the Matthew Golden stuff. Yeah, I'm kind of going back to what Rohan said about, you know, him not being good. Like I think I think it's an interesting conversation because yes, I'm going to be the first one to tell you like I had question marks about how good Matthew Golden is. And I just think there's a difference between what Matthew Golden did in week one when you compare it to like if you remember like year two Skymore right similar similar year one to a guy like Matthew Golden. I have to go. super disappointing didn't do a whole lot the entire offseason we're told by the Kansas City Chiefs this this guy's we're gonna run through this guy Sky Moore's our wide receiver one we're running through him in year two you know this team like we take a while for rookie wide receivers to break out like they start producing in year two blah blah right we heard that from the Chiefs the entire offseason he comes out in week one they very clearly want Sky Moore to be their guy you know they're he's running all the routes he's getting targeted but he's doing literally nothing with it if I mean Matthew Golden he goes out there he gets 12 targets he has a 31 percent target share in week one 43 percent of the red zone targets went to Matthew Golden in week one that ranked wide receiver 14 and first on the team by a long shot and I mean just the underlying metrics as well like everything looks really really good so I wouldn't say he went out there in week one and like kind of confirm my priors whatsoever that like okay maybe this guy can't handle being the one on his team if anything he he showed me the opposite what do you think because it's almost like I think both Christian Watson and Golden are going to be smashes this year relative to cost the concerning one is Jaden Reed you know people someone in the chat said Jaden Reed is a zero I'm not quite willing to say that for best ball I do think he's going to have some spike weeks where he's going to hit your lineup he's just too talented of a player and I think Jordan Love is going to have some spike weeks where he's going to hit some big games and they're going to be in a lot of negative game scripts but that said from like a managed standpoint I'm looking at some of my start sits in my managed leagues and I'm telling you clicking Jordan or Jaden Reed into your starting lineup does not feel good right now no it definitely does not feel good and I Jaden Reed to me is just basically looking like he could be this year's Josh Downs where he's a guy that we love the talent we think he's a very talented wide receiver but he just doesn't have the talent to do that so I think he's going to have some big just gets taken off the field and in three wide receiver sets and if if Golden and Watson are going to be the definitive two wide receivers that are out there and Jaden Reed's coming on for you know only three wide receiver sets in certain packages maybe jet sweeps that they want to get him in action for it's it's just going to be hard to predict when he is going to be impactful in fantasy on a week-to-week basis like you said I think best ball like he's still going to have big spike weeks but in terms of figuring out when those spike weeks are going to be I think he's still going to have big spike weeks but in terms of figuring out when those spike weeks are going to be I think that's going to be relatively difficult I mean you can see he still had seven targets in week one so it wasn't like he was he was doing nothing he he only had three catches for 20 yards and no touchdown and the utilization itself wasn't wasn't great you can see a 42.3 had him at wide receiver 54 in week one but he did have 11.4 expected fantasy points this had him at wide receiver 28 like I don't I don't think he's a zero by any means do you have any thoughts on on the Packers offensive line and how you know it certainly seemed like it impacted the running game obviously see Watson have the big plays any concern about even for Watson and golden if this offensive line doesn't you know give Jordan love enough time to uncork some deep balls I guess a little bit but on the flip side of that I think it makes Watson almost a little more interesting for fantasy because now he's not just being relegated to that deep threat role he's he's getting leveraged in shorter areas of the field than he ever has before and I think we saw that like on in week one when he had that opening like 80 yard touchdown you know that's just kind of the thing that like Christian Watson can do where if you get him in the ball with any little bit of space in a short area of the field he can literally house it from from anywhere so that was one thing I did want to touch on about Christian Watson so one of the big things that we were told by Green Bay this offseason was that they wanted to get Christian Watson in a more classic wide receiver role they didn't want him to just be the explosive play guy the deep threat guy and I mean if I so I'm going to Christian Watson's page here you can see looking at his let's go to his history so you can see on his year over year basically for Christian Watson is this it wait I'm not seeing the page okay anyway you have to trust me then Christian Watson had a super high average depth of target average depth of route on a year over year basis you can see this year it was at 16.0 in week one and I think in past years his a dots also been around like 16 to 23 on a yearly basis the big thing for Christian Watson though well the a dot looked the same in week one the average depth of route so how he was utilized even when he wasn't targeted so on a route basis 8.4 yards downfield 8.4 yards downfield is a super like normal average depth of route yeah you can see jsn also at 8.4 yards downfield a mech egg buka 8.3 you rishi rice 7 7.9 so if Christian Watson's going to play a role where he's being leveraged not as just the deep threat and you're getting an explosive an explosive play guy that's getting the ball in his hands more often he he would be my favorite pick right now to be one of those guys who drafted in the mid rounds that could just like legitimately break fantasy and in 2026 and we saw it in week one like what he can do on a weekly basis yeah in that I mean that's what he did as a rookie right when like he burst onto the scene it was as the deep threat and then you kind of got excited obviously at the injury stuff and then he comes back and they're like oh they're using this guy differently they're looking for him in the red zone it's not just these bombs it's funny because I did just want to pull this off his uh his uh average depth of target as a rookie and it was 16.2 a dot which I believe was his exact a dot in the game uh this last week 16 they're obviously influenced by those uh those big plays but yeah I think there's room for um if this offense is just hyper concentrated around these guys like you know I'm guessing this target share kind of pings back and forth like golden that 31% this week Watson at 21% could easily see that flip on a week to week basis but that's the other thing too about the Packers is they've historically been one of those teams that utilize the bow Melton the sky mores you know their target percentages were low here I think that's the big question for Reed specifically um and all of these guys can this just be hyper concentrated around the top three guys or are we going to continue to see you know the sky mores of the world involved yeah exactly so I think I think we're we should be getting really really excited about what we could see from Watson and golden I mean yeah I even read like I think all three of them are going to be are going to be fantasy relevant to a certain extent this season let's head over to the Saints who had an interesting game in that uh it did not look like uh these guys were going to be too useful for fantasy until about the fourth quarter when they racked up a ton of garbage I guess I could say Olave was on track to get there initially but then you know Vele and Jawan Johnson really kind of get bailed out there in the fourth quarter you flagged the offense though as being one for us to look into what uh intrigued you about the Saints in week one well I think what we saw was just that Chris Olave might absolutely smash in in 2026 if he if he stays healthy that's always the question mark with Olave I think there's not a single player that watching football for me like and managing in my teams like that I get more stressed out about watching than Chris Olave because anytime he makes a big play it's it feels like he's slow to get up it feels like the trainers have to come out he's always in the blue tent it's like his second home and but you can see when he plays a full game 85% of snaps 87% of routes 13 targets 10 receptions 182 yards doesn't even get into the end zone in week one still finishes with uh 28 fantasy points 93 and a half utilization score I believe this was okay yeah wide receiver three on the week only behind Nico and Justin Jefferson and then 21.7 expected fantasy points in week one that's wide receiver two only behind Amin Ross St. Brown so I think the big thing I wanted to flag about Olave is that I mean I don't know if it's fair to really call him a potential this year's JSN he was getting drafted in the mid late second sometimes the third so in a way similar to JSN I think JSN might have gone a little bit later last year but this is a guy that I think has a real chance to finish and I think he's going to be a real chance to finish and I think he's going to be a real chance you know top three in 2026 potentially even wide receiver one or two if he stays healthy for sure yeah and I guess the the most interesting thing for the Olave stuff is I don't think anyone questions his ability to consolidate targets now the fear had been what if Jordan Tyson is really really good and this complicates it because you look at the utilization here in week one and it was all Olave and Vele Olave 93 utilization score that's out of 100 it's incredible Vele and I think it's going to be a really good game and I think it's going to be a at 82 and then you drop all the way down to Bryce Lance here at the third wide receiver it was basically Olave Vele and Jawan Johnson so I guess that's the question there do you think when Tyson if when gets back involved that Olave can keep this clip up or do you ride this for about a month and then you all of a sudden have an interesting sell high candidate it's a it's a very good point I mean I do think when Tyson gets back things will look different my my gut would tell me that things look different is I think it's going to be a really good game and I think it's going to be the way things look different is that we just take out Devon Vele's name here and plug Jordan Tyson in. I'm not sure it's going to have that much of a detrimental effect on Olave. I've always thought he's an unbelievable talent at the wide receiver position, consistently underrated, especially if he stays healthy. It's just the upside is so high. It's a good segue, though, into Devon Vele, that conversation about what this second option in the Saints offense looks like. Devon Vele, I just did my first iteration of rankings for week two. I think I'm just going to be like 15 spots higher than the market on Devon Vele on a weekly basis until Jordan Tyson gets back. Just because his role, I mean, this is definitively like a solid wide receiver, too. In the Saints offense, you can see 18.4% of targets. He had seven receptions, 69 yards, and a touchdown. Utilization, like you pointed out, we got 80.7 for Devon Vele. That's wide receiver nine on the week. So this is like a legit, legit role for Devon Vele. I know we don't think a ton of him is like a talent. He was like a 27-year-old rookie, you know, but he really was utilized in week one, like a guy that the Saints truly trust as the second option in that offense. 16.1 expected fantasy points, wide receiver 11, ends up with 19.9 on week one. That's wide receiver 10. So I think he's ranked in the market somewhere around like wide receiver 50, wide receiver 55. I'm plugging him in as a high-end wide receiver three. Like wide receiver 36 to 40 range on a weekly basis until we see Jordan Tyson back. And I think this makes me very excited to see what Jordan Tyson could look like, too. So he now is like someone after week one that I'm more optimistic about in 2026, considering what we've seen the Saints passing options look like. That's actually like a, you know, I think a thing people are thinking about for managed leagues right now is like these injured rookies. Like who can you hold and who can you, who needs to, to go? You know, I think an easy one is like you cut, you probably need to cut Omar Cooper and Jacoby Lane with these injuries. There's probably just better speculative ads. Like give me Antonio Williams on my roster right now instead of Jacoby Lane. I'll make that switch. Jordan Tyson remains, I think, a very strong hold as far as trying to supercharge your lineup. Not to bounce us around too much, but I feel like the tough one now is Dijon Stribling. Initially, it was four. Weeks and then it bumps to 10. Like four, he's an auto hold at. 10 weeks, it gets really, really dicey. Where I'm at now, and I'm curious your thoughts, like if you're in just a traditional 12-person league, whatever, friends and family, I'm probably moving on. If I'm in the FFPC, these big contests where all the money's in the sprint and a guy like Dijon Stribling coming back weeks 13, 14, I'm more likely to hold there. But where are you? You cutting or holding Strib? Did I miss the news that it's now 10, like he'll be expected back like week 11? Week 12? Yeah, we jumped from four to 10 last night. Yep. Okay. Yeah, no, I'm cutting Dijon Stribling. If there's no IR spots in my league, you're just, the value of a bench spot in redraft in most leagues, like some leagues with weird settings, the entire waivers are barren and everyone's hoarding players. But in most leagues, the value of a bench spot is just way too valuable to hold Stribling for the majority of the year. And then hope that when he gets back, he can, he can turn into a fantasy relevant wide receiver in like three weeks. You know, I, I just don't, I think that's a tough bet and a tough ask for that guy, um, as a fantasy manager. So I'd be cutting ties there. I think the question about Jordan Tyson, that's interesting is I see DJ culprit said he has him on his IR spot in a couple of leagues. Like what if you don't have an IR, you know, where, where do you, where do you draw the line with like a Jordan Tyson? Like, are you, are you comfortable? Are you comfortable holding him on your bench? Like say you have a four person bench and you're seeing people go bid for Jalen Coker and go bid for, you know, Kalen black and all these guys are on the waivers that are huge waiver ads. Does, does Jordan Tyson take priority for you there in terms of just his long-term upside being, I guess, more important than those, those guys that you could pick up. Yeah. And I mean, not to be too specific, but like the scenario you described sounds probably more like a shallow league. Like maybe it's a 10 person league, and if Jalen Coker's on the waiver wire, like, yeah, you, you got to swap out Tyson for Coker. I think in competitive deeper 12 team leagues, five, six, seven bench spots, you know, if you're looking at adding a DeMarcus Robinson to me, that's where I'm like, no, I want the bigger swing. The guy who could become a top 24 wide receiver down the stretch. And then the other thing is it, it factors into your team strength. Like if you did a zero RB build, um, and you're loaded with four or five wide receivers at the top, you know, maybe you're not taking on that that risk. Cause you're needing to churn spots at running back, but say you're weak at wide receiver. And you're like, how do I build a team that can compete in the playoffs? I'm going to need to hit on an upside wide receiver. Then I'm probably more inclined to stash a guy like Jordan Tyson. But I wrote in the newsletter the other day as LBJ ask is DeMarcus Robinson relevant. One, I would say he's definitely relevant. Um, but I would say it's, what are you needing? Like if you need a plug and play at wide receiver this week, like gimme DeMarcus Robinson highest team run a ton of routes. If you're just sitting someone on your bench and you're not using them like, yeah, gimme Jordan Tyson, gimme these guys with more upside here because DeMarcus Robinson, it's like you're playing for the now with a guy like DeMarcus Robinson. Yeah, for sure. And we could actually, we could take a little sidetrack if we've got some people interested in DeMarcus Robinson, just look at his data real quick. Um, I think DeMarcus Robinson's definitely worth a pickup. He is going to pretty clearly be the wide receiver three on this team behind Debo and Mike. That being said, just understand what you're getting with DeMarcus Robinson. Like he's not, he's not going to be your high volume guy. This is, this is the guy that's coming onto the player play. Oh, excuse me. The, the field for the explosive plays specifically. So he had three targets in, uh, in week one, two of them came in the red zone though. He ends up with two receptions for 50 yards. The utilization's never going to look great with DeMarcus Robinson, saw like Mike Evans and Debo get hurt. And he was thrust into potentially a more high volume role, but you can see wide receiver 43 in terms of utilization. And then he finishes with, he finishes with 13 fantasy points, but the expectation, again, this is one of those guys that's like always gonna, he's typically going to over-perform his expectation if he gets there in a given week, because it's, it's going to come on the back of one or two explosive plays. Yeah. Yeah. And the other thing you get is like, he's going to run a lot of routes, but you still have Mike Evans, Debo, Samuel, George Kittle. This is a veteran fragile depth chart there. Like he could have even more opportunity if another one of these guys gets dinged up or has a setback. One thing I wanted to pull up, let's do a couple of things here. Um, one, I want to get a coffee giveaway going in honor of the strip club closing. Let's get a coffee giveaway going compliments of our friends over at Vassaleros and sons, but to get us back on the saints specifically, I think it's just fun to look at the, the BR ADPs, obviously a lobby highly drafted at 13.8. Uh, but you want Johnson 34.9, um, they lay down here at 35.9. It is a little tougher in the underdog battle rails when only 36 players are drafted to maybe get to a but if we go over into, you know, just the, the prop line market here, uh, they lay at 39 and a half. I believe a lobby is up here at 69 and a half. So the question for you, again, similar with the golden versus the Watson, like, um, and again, I'm not, I'm not saying you're a sports betting expert here, but do you think that gap is, is justified? Do you think they lay is still kind of a, a, a play on the over here at 39 and a half? I think both of those would be, would be lines that I'm interested in just kind of betting on betting on the usage, betting on what we saw in week one from their offenses. Like I could, I could very easily see both of them going over those lines. Yeah. Um, I'm going to keep these up, uh, throughout the show. And, uh, as we go through the show, I'm going to keep them up throughout the show. At the end, we'll maybe put together, uh, a little, little parlay slash pick them, whatever you have available to you at your state. We'll, we'll cook something up, but yeah, strong leans on the valet and golden usage and kind of trying to, uh, get ahead of the market. Um, you know, baking in their new roles here. Let's, uh, let's pivot over and talk about a running back. Uh, one that I'm pretty excited about here, and it might not be a DFS play, but certainly in season long, what we saw from the chief's backfield was very encouraging. Obviously Kenneth Walker, Uber smash. But to me, my mind immediately went to, okay, Emmett Johnson is now one of the most interesting men in fantasy because he's one ankle injury away from being the lead back on an offense that just showed a massive commitment to the run game. How are you kind of parsing this huge debut for Kenneth Walker and now his backup? Yeah, I am so intrigued by Emmett Johnson and I'm very, I'm very happy where I got him in the last couple rounds of, uh, of underdog best ball drafts this, this summer. I think he's looking like a guy that could really pay dividends at that price. He was the only running back outside of Kenneth Walker to get a carry. And he had eight, obviously this game, like I'm a little hesitant to view this as like the normal utilization for Emmett Johnson going forward, just because it was a complete blowout. Like I think, you know, once they loaded up Kate up early in the game, they, they wanted Johnson to come in and just like, you know, kind of put it away. It wasn't like super close. I feel kept the game going. closer. Maybe we would have seen Kenneth Walker with 30 carries instead of 23. But that being said, what Emmitt Johnson did on those carries, I mean, he looked awesome. He had a couple of breakaway plays. He had a 39.7 utilization. This isn't anything crazy, but you can see it's around other handcuffs like Kalen Black. We even see guys like Tony Pollard, Marshawn Lloyd, Woody Barks in this range as well from week one. So the utilization was definitely legit for a guy like Emmitt Johnson. 7.3 expected fantasy points per game, 8.8 actual. And he also gets involved in the receiving game as well. And this was one of the things about Emmitt Johnson's profile that I thought was the most interesting was the fact that he was also a talented receiver back in college as well. So two targets, two receptions, 44 yards. So he had a couple of big plays in the receiving game. Definitely love to see it. I think this begs the question, Pete, like, do you push Emmitt Johnson into, I guess, how high is too high when it comes to the talk about handcuffed running backs? Is he up there with Blake Corum? Is he up there with Kalen Black? Do you view him as a tier down from those guys? I think I do put him as a tier down just because he's not going to have the standalone value, I think, in most game scripts. And I think what we saw from Kalen Black, obviously Blake Corum. I think he's in his own tier. And then there's another tier with the Kalen Black types. And then I think you're putting Emmitt Johnson in the tier with guys like Mike Washington, who look like they are just the clear number two, a workout horseback in front of them in just the snaps that they're getting in the rush attempts shows a level of trust by the team. One thing that was really interesting, Rashard Smith was active in this game, only played special team snaps. They did not use him offensively at all. That was going to be the guy who's going to be a thesis. Like if Rashard Smith is the long down and distance back, that's a concern. Emmitt Johnson actually led the team in long down and distance snaps, 62%, Kenneth Walker, 54%. So him already having that role showing that the team trusts him in pass protection, that is massive right out of the gate. So yeah, to me, like if I'm thinking back through a redraft lens, I think he is pushing up even ahead of a guy like, I mentioned Tank Bigsby, or I don't know if I did mention Tank got out snapped by Will Shipley. Will Shipley was what I thought for Shard Smith might be in that Chiefs backfield to where the Tank Bigsby thing doesn't look quite as clean. The Emmett Johnson is just like as clean of a one for one as you can get right now. Yeah, it's a massive arrow down for Tank Bigsby. In my opinion, I would I thought he was going to be a much cleaner one to one handcuff as well. For me personally, Emmett Johnson does jump into that tier with a guy like Kalen Black and Blake Corum as as those those would be the top three handcuffs. In my opinion, I guess Mike Washington, you could throw into that tier as well. But I just see Kalen Black being on the 49ers, Blake Corum on the Rams, Emmett Johnson on the Chiefs. I view those offenses a little bit differently than I view the Raiders as much as I love Gen T and I love the Raiders offense this year. They're not in the same tier as those other three. And those are three of the cleanest handcuffs that you that you could imagine. I mean, like you said, Rashard Smith active. But Emmett Johnson, if you look at his prospect profile, I mean, this guy was a receiver, man, like and a real receiver. You know, that was the big thing for Rashard Smith was that he was a receiving threat. I think Emmett Johnson might just be a better receiving prospect straight up than Rashard Smith. Junior season at Nebraska, 39 receptions, senior year at Nebraska, 46 receptions. And you can see he's this is like a true dual threat skill set for Emmett Johnson. 1450 rush yards. That's like 1800 scrimmage yards, you know, just truly solid usage for Emmett Johnson back in Nebraska. 70% production score. He does come out as a 35.4 cup score, which is 56th percentile among running backs. We can go ahead and look at his. This would be his year one rookie comps as well. Are there any interesting names here? I actually haven't looked. We have Jordan Howard is a pretty interesting name. We see Aaron Jones, Kyron Williams come to the top of the list. So this is interesting to me. I mean, I think he's a pretty interesting guy. I mean, I think he's a pretty interesting to me, man. I like if if we see Kenneth Walker go down, I think it's a tough it's a tough sell like Emmett Johnson and Dynasty being a whole lot more than a handcuff just because he's going to be stuck behind Kenneth Walker for the foreseeable future. But this is the type of profile that if he ever did have the chance to be the one in a backfield, I think he could do it. Yeah. Yeah. And, you know, to go back to your point, I did pull up our utilization comparison tool here just to throw a few of these names in the mix and take a look at them, which, by the way, guys, if you want access to this, you saw me on Monday's best ball breakfast going through the utilization report, this comparison tool, all of the league sync stuff, which is really helpful if you're managing multiple leagues. Check that out with fantasy life. Plus, you can get 10% off with promo code Pete over there. But yeah, the Kalen Black and Emmett Johnson utilization scores were pretty similar. You see a slightly better lean to snaps and rush attempts for Kalen Black as they really kind of utilized him even on that first drive. You know, the Blake Corum stuff. I do think we can kind of throw out week one in just that entire offense was anemic. None of them got going. But yeah, if the week one usage holds, that's going to be bad. But kind of the thesis for Blake Corum is like when the Rams do look like an offensive juggernaut and they're controlling games, Corum is going to be a big part of that. He's going to have a nice, you know, the thing that Emmett Johnson isn't going to have that a guy like Corum will is like a standalone goal line role. Like Corum is probably going to go bar for bar on goal line carries. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think where Emmett Johnson just far surpasses anything Corum could do is in the receiving game and providing like a floor. That's one thing that I'm starting to like kind of slow my expectation for. I guess Blake Corum I was hoping could have more of a standalone role. Like he'd be one of like those guys who could throw into the back end of your flexes every week, but then has that like massive, massive upside of Kyron Williams were to go down. I'm tempering that a little bit, just based on the fact that that Corum, it just confirmed my priors again in week one. He's just not involved in the receiving game. And I'm not even sure like if Kyron were to go down, if we would see him get involved in the receiving game. I think he's more of just like kind of a bruiser profile. It's just it kind of muddies the waters a little bit for me with Corum. I'd be curious to see one, a new sample size here getting this week to game. They are seven point home favorites versus the Giants this week. They have a 27.25 implied team total. That is the fifth highest on the week. So I want to see what it looks like with the game script. But your point is taken like no targets in this game where they were trailing and you would want to see, you know, some of these backs getting more of that, you know, usage just to give them a floor in games where they are trailing. And so that is certainly a concern here. And you can see that compared to Emmett Johnson actually had the most targets of all of these guys, at least, you know, percentage wise there for their team. Let's do another quick detour here because go easy cards wants to talk about Jeremiah love. And then we might hit on some guys playing in tonight's Thursday night football game. But yeah, what did you think about Jeremiah loves debut for the Cardinals? Yeah, I thought I thought love looked solid. I didn't expect a whole lot. Honestly, I was I was. Pretty far down on him in week one, specifically, even being a massive fan of the profile, like, and I guess the thesis kind of kind of was correct, even though, you know, we did see Jeremiah love get into the end zone. He did have only 11 carries compared to Al's years 1711 for 41 does sneak into the end zone. So that saves his fantasy day 12.3 expected fancy points per game. This has him at RB 2159 usage. This is kind of the range that I would just envision love being in maybe for a couple weeks, where Al's year is the guy in front of him getting more carries. They kind of scheme up certain certain runs for Jeremiah love just to get his sea legs under him at the NFL level. I'm probably plugging in love is like a high end RB three until we get to maybe a week's five or six and we start seeing hopefully we start seeing this carry this carry breakdown go a little bit more his way as the season goes on. goes on. I don't envision Tyler Al's year out snapping out carrying Jeremiah love the entire 2026 season. You don't just spend the fourth overall pick on on a running back to do that. Let me let me give you an actual start set. I'll pull it up on screen that I'm going to have this week in one of my high stakes FFPC main event league. So I have Jeremiah love on my bench right now is Matthew golden. I could play Matthew golden over Jeremiah love potentially over Rico Dowdle like, you know, Rico's role was strong. I want to get Matthew golden into my lineup here. Maybe you say I play him over Terry McLaurin or something. But Jeremiah love is the one that's kind of interesting to me because this is a tough matchup for Seattle. So yeah, I mean, we're talking about one of our loves earlier and Matthew golden like golden verse love in the flex. right? Like now for fantasy life, I have to do weekly rankings. And for me, the way I've always played fantasy football is like, I really don't. I'm, you know, I'm a data guy. I don't trust my gut a whole lot in terms of like just picking the guy I think is going to score the most points. I almost exclusively refer to like, what, what does the market think? What are this guy's prop lines? What is his fantasy projection? Like at multiple sources, like looking at that type of data and then using that to help me make my decisions rather than like, oh, this, you know, I just feel like this guy's going to have a big week. That's just not like my, uh, my style. So that's what I did for, for this, uh, new, this new exercise that I have to do for fantasy life every week, creating these rankings. I pulled in the projection data from fantasy life. I pulled in prop lines for rush receiving receptions from Vegas. I pulled in prediction market data, just like implied ladders of where people are putting money on these players and created fantasy totals off of that for them. And basically I combine all these things. And then I use that to come up with these hybrid projections for standard half and full PPR. So I have to answer your question. Jeremiah Lugg is my 62nd highest ranked flex player combining all these sources at nine half PPR points this week. Golden is at 8.4. So a little lower and Dowdell, this is in half. So Dowdell's at nine as well. You see Dowdell is 64. Jeremiah Love's 62. They are neck and neck. If it was full PPR, I think Golden might be the lean. Oh, it is. Okay. So Golden is at 10.1. Love is at 10.2. And Dowdell is at 10.2. That's why it's so, it's so hard. That's how I have it set right now is the two 10.2 guys over the 10.1, but you're looking, what's McLaurin actually? I'm curious what you have McLaurin. McLaurin 11.7. Okay. So again, like I have it set based on the projections, but just after all of the enthusiasm we just had for Matthew Golden to not be able to play that feels insane, but that's kind of the spot. I would take, I would, when it's that close, then I let my gut come into play a little bit of like, all right, let's, let's just do what we what's going to make us the most excited on Sunday. And it's not going to be playing Rico Dowdell. Like if we're being real, like I I'm putting Golden in for Dowdell, I think just for the pure, uh, the serotonin boost. That's right. Um, all right, let's talk a little bit about Thursday night football. Obviously we have a banger here. Highest, uh, total on the week, 54 and a half. We have the bills as minus five and a half point home favorites versus the lions. I have seen some betting trend data that like games like this, with teams coming off of short rests, like basically never go over this total here. So it is one of the classic spots where I think, uh, it's natural to be excited about it, but maybe we need to temper expectations. Um, I feel like two of the interesting guys from a usage standpoint, week one for these two teams were Jamison Williams on the bills or sorry, on the lines didn't quite show up in the box score in the way we'd hoped, but the usage was good. And then Dalton Kincaid, we really saw a jump in his playing time. In a way that led to some massive fantasy scoring. So how are you thinking about these two guys in this game in general? Yeah. So once we can start with Jamo on the lion side here, like you mentioned the usage for Jamo, I think maybe his best usage that I've seen at the NFL level. Like he, he had real, real, like wide receiver one usage, obviously all men, right. Just in a different stratosphere, like looking at their utilization 90.5 for, uh, for all of it. I think that's wide receiver six. Okay. Wide receiver six. Wow. Jalen Coker, man. That's insane. Um, yeah, 90.5 for Amin Ra in terms of utilization, 25.9 expected fancy points per game. So this is like Amin Ra is just always in a tier of his own, but Jamo, I think like we can't dismiss him as just this number two option here, like 70.7 utilization. That was wide receiver 21. So pretty solid, but 18.6 expected fantasy points per game in week one, that was wide receiver six. So mid wide receiver one expectation from a fantasy point perspective, he doesn't get there in the box score with only 8.5. This, I believe he was one of the bigger underperformers. Yeah. You can see he was actually dead last in terms of, uh, underperforming his fantasy expectation in week one. So someone I'm very intrigued. These are the type of guys that when I'm looking to make like parlays or, you know, look for plays on the following week, I'm trying to find the guys that had the usage, but underperformed it. So I think with a guy like Jamo, I think he'll stick out to me when we look at these lines because the usage indicates he could, he could have exploded for, you know, 150 yards and a touchdown didn't quite get there. So let's see what those lines look like. And I think, I think he would be someone that we would like. Yeah, for sure. Uh, I think right now in the underdog lobby here, I can get this pulled up Jamison William. They have him at 59 and a half receiving yards. I'm in raw up here at 79 and a half. They actually have Jamo and DJ more for the same amount of receiving yards. I think the question with Jamo too, is like, is he a guy that you want to play the, the median number on, or is he someone you slide up because you're like, when he does hit, you want to really run that ladder up? Yeah, that does he have, does he have a fantasy line? I would almost be more inclined to get him on fantasy than just raw yardage. I know, uh, you guys might have that now that I'm a prediction marketer. Uh, I don't have that. I don't know if you can, um, you can check that for me. If you have, uh, in the underdog stuff there, that's, that's always a good call because you, you do want to be able to capture, like they'll give Jamo an end around like the goal line. Like there's lots of different ways he can get there. Okay. Well, regardless. Yeah. I would, I still think like, yeah, he would be someone I'd ladder up potentially. Like, cause if he's going to get there, like we could see, I think Jamo over like 99 and a half would be, would be a fun one in, uh, I, I, I get, you said coming off the short week, this game, like it feels like it's just going to be one of the best games of the year, but at the same time, how surprised would you be if it just goes out there and we're just disappointed? Like no one really produces that much. You know, I would not be surprised at all. And maybe I've just become more cynical in my old age, but, uh, I would almost be willing to bet, but isn't this the fun way to play it? Like what you do is on just the spread you're, you play the under, you say this isn't going to hit, but then you do say, if it does, let me slide it up. And I'm actually, you know, winning multipliers. If I'm, if I'm right on that. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I love that. I love that. Um, let's see. Oh, I, I do owe you guys a, uh, a coffee giveaway last call here for a strip in the chat. This is for a free 12 ounce bag of Bassilaros and son's coffee. As I've been mentioning on shows, if you win, please just email me at contact at Peter over set.com. And my guy historical anomalies ships this one, uh, shoot me an email at contact at Peter over set.com. I'll get you a promo code in the link. You go to the checkout, you get that free 12 ounce bag of coffee there. Um, yeah, I think on mine here, uh, I am not able to slide, uh, right now, but I do have, I see a few of these, like his other he's 3.16 X for a touchdown 59 and a half receiving yards, three and a half, uh, receptions that actually seems a little light relative to his role, three and a half reception. Yeah. This is for, this is for JMO. Yes. Sorry. Back to JMO. Yeah. I, how many targets did he have week one targets on the targets front? He had way more than yeah. Nine targets. Yeah. I get he only caught four, but that's why he was underperforming so much. I, so yeah, I think three and a half feels very light. That that's the one that jumps out to me the most, which is generally like counterintuitive with JMO because you're like, Oh, big play guy, like can get it done on just, you know, a few touches, but it really is this volume uptick that you're getting excited about with him. 25% of the targets. And again, like in a game with this total, the script implies that they'll be tailing. Uh, you gotta think he's going to be involved in like, dude, this usage for a concentrated, have you seen anything like this? It's almond rod JMO Tesla's out there just running straight cardio, not a single target. Like there are two wide receivers on this team. I actually like cackled when I saw the Tesla box score, 32 routes, 78% route participation, literally never looked his way once. Like that's, I mean, who, who else other than Isaac to slog? It's that sort of usage, man. I mean, it's, it's just perfect. Couldn't draw it up. It's crazy. Um, all right. This, this is what I'm going to try to do guys. I literally like the way underdog is set up now. Like I mentioned this on my show earlier. It's like my account is between and prediction market, like in it's in purgatory. Like it's, it's like half of each and I'm not able to do either. I think I'll be able to place these on my, on my phone, but this is what I'm going to say. My official plays. And hopefully I have the rubber stamps with you cops is we have a valet higher 39 and a half receiving yards. We have a Matthew golden higher 49 and a half. And then as we shift over to Thursday night football, you guys can either put these together. Um, or if you want to isolate them just for the Thursday night sweat, I do really like this three and a half receptions for JMO. and then do you want to look at the kincaid stuff because he's the other one who i think's really interesting to talk through based on what we saw in week one yeah let's do one quick uh kincaid recap so yeah that was another guy that like i guess this would have been my pick of like the the low route participation tight ends to really pop off in 2026 so like the kincaid the likely the gadston i think kincaid was the one that stood out to me the most obviously likely didn't age quite as well. I was, I was a big likely fader, like, like most of us, I think you were on that side with me as well. Just not drafting a whole lot of Isaiah likely. Yeah. Yeah. Not, not, not looking good for us, but Kendall's been rubbing it in my face on the fantasy life show. Cause she was super high on him and I made fun of her every single time. And boy, did she get, she earned that victory lap. I'll tell you that. I remember her hot take was, uh, Isaiah likely top 10 tight end. I think that's going to be, I think that should be fine in, uh, in 2026, but yeah, for Duncan K like the big thing here is the route participation was just up so much more than his previous season. So 69% route participation, 22 routes. I mean, this is still like not going to blow anyone away. You can see it's right next to Isaiah likely at tight end 18 and 19 on the week, but this is up way higher than what he's had in past years. And this is the big question we had about Kincaid was, can he get to this? This area, because he's always been super effective on a per route basis. He's been super efficient. And I mean, that didn't change, like even with more volume, even running more routes, still a 0.27 targets per outrun that ranked tight in 12 on the week, 5.91 yards per outrun. I mean, just absolutely absurd. He's only behind Aranda Gadsden in week one, but Aranda Gadsden, I think ran like seven routes. So if I put up this, Whoa, if I put up this route participation a little bit, I think he's going to be up there. I think he's going to be up there. I think you'd see that he was, he was tight in one on the week. If I put this to like 11. Yeah. Tight in one on the week, had Mike Kosicki and some other guys. So yeah. Yards per outrun looked very solid. And the usage was just unbelievable for Kincaid. 87.3 tight end four. I could easily see Kincaid turn into a guy we're talking about as a top three, top three tight end on a weekly basis. You know, can he pass like a guy like Tyler Warren? Maybe I don't want to bring up Colston Loveland's name yet, but I could easily see Kincaid get into that conversation this year. Just if you zoom out, right, he's the number one tight end on one of the best offenses in the league with not a whole lot of target competition, right? Like he's working against DJ Moore, who I have question marks about still outside of DJ Moore. I mean, it's just an absolute wasteland. So, I mean, the runway's there for Kincaid. Like you can see five for 130, no touchdown in week one. Just he could, could absolutely break fantasy at the tight end position if they continue to give him the routes that they did in week one. Yeah. I mean, you, you look at the overall, uh, utilization here relative to the other tight ends, obviously Trey McBride, the King likely goes nuke in week one, uh, got her up there, but then after him, it is Kincaid. And sure. I think you can point to some noise in week one. Like Gusecki is not going to be top five in tight end utilization going forward. And I do think with these guys, like, likely Kincaid, Terrence Ferguson, you know, there's these guys, Loveland, like they are going to have maybe these wild swings, but man with Kincaid, at least seeing the jump that we were hoping for, which is like, can we get his routes up from 50% up to this 70% range? He's always been a targets per route run monster. If he is getting those routes. And then you couple that with the ADOT 15.8, you look at all of the tight ends up here in the top 10, nobody had a higher ADOT on that usage than Kincaid, which just leads to a lot of people. So, you know, I think, you know, leads to really nice fantasy outcomes when you're getting these deep shots down the field in Josh Allen just keeps defenses honest in so many ways. So yeah, Kincaid's looking like a smash looking at his lines tonight, you know, 49 and a half receiving yards. Um, the other stuff with Kincaid that could be interesting here. I'm trying to check it on my phone cause it's easier to, uh, to find these here, but he had the longest reception of 21 and a half, which is kind of interesting with his ADOT. Four and a half receptions looks kind of a smidge high to me. I almost think I would want to play either through receiving yards or touchdown, just knowing like, Hey, if his ADOT is, you know, close to 20, like he can do this on two to three receptions. Fan duel is now available everywhere in the U S so you can get in on the sports action, no matter where you are, including these places. Make this your most rewarding season ever with fan agent location restrictions apply product availability varies by market. See fan duel.com for eligibility gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER visible puts unlimited 5g data and hotspot in the palm of your hand powered by Verizon's 5g network with no contract holding you back. And for a limited time, you can get visible for just $19 a month for 12 months. When you use promo code, save six, all the features of big wireless service for half the cost. Tap the banner to switch today. Terms apply. Standard rate applies at month 13. See visible.com for plan features and network management details. Yeah, I think that would be where my lean is as well. It's tough with the markets already projecting him. Like his yardage is pretty high. Like that, that is a high yardage line. I'm looking at it on my side. Like Kincaid comes in as the tight end to this, this weekend. In terms of expected yardage. So his, his over under is, is right behind Trey McBride. It's ahead of Colston Loveland. It's ahead of Tucker craft ahead of Tyler Warren. So it's like the market's not giving you that discount on this guy that like we, we don't, you know, projecting him above a guy like Loveland and, uh, and those other names. So I think I'd be with you in terms of, yeah, maybe longest reception. I mean, he did have like 130 yards last week. So it's like, he can definitely get there, but yeah. It's, it's asking a lot with, with that line. And again, I know everybody probably sees different things, the multipliers I see. So for scoring a touchdown, that's 2.85 X higher than 49 and a half is 1.78 X. And then longest reception at 21 and a half is higher, uh, is 1.92 X. So it's like, I think I'm like torn between just playing the touchdown there at the higher multiplier or playing the yards. I mean, 49 and a environment their implied team total it doesn't seem crazy to me yeah I mean you're right like I'd probably be between what about just raw yardage or or touchdown which one of those you like more let's do touchdown have a little fun here um I am going to play this so for me guys I'm going to play Jamo higher than three and a half receptions and I'm going to play Kincaid scores a touchdown for me that pays uh fifty dollars pays 203.64 so close to a four to one there um nice little sweat I uh I was able to make this on my phone I'll drop it in the chat here the link obviously you guys are going to have different things available to you depending on where you are but I I feel good about that one and then I'm also going to place that valet in Matthew Golden one there based on our uh our other conversations I think that one sounds fun as well you Yeah okay I will I will join you on those one thing I am seeing like some people in the chat just absolutely hating the fact that I'm not a big DJ Moore fan I wanted to address that yeah let's talk about it just as another Buffalo guy we're going to see go tonight so listen like I've I've been a DJ Moore guy my entire fantasy career like back when he was at Carolina when he got drafted in the first round there like I love DJ Moore he was a great prospect he was someone that I was buying in all my leagues from 2019 until 2025 2024 you know but I think what we've seen DJ Moore become over the last couple seasons especially the boost we got with with his value once he signed with Buffalo and he inherits this number one role for uh for Josh Allen I his week one usage and performance like definitely didn't stand out to me as like super authentic so in terms of his utilization itself the utilization was great 80.1 utilization score that was wide receiver 11 in week one but in terms of looking at like what he was expected on the fantasy point production side versus what he actually did he was one of the bigger over performers across all wide receivers 12.2 expected fantasy points in week one that was wide receiver 24 behind guys like Malik Washington you know right around Kendrick Bourne Michael Wilson like not super difference making not a super difference making range here he does get there with the fantasy point production side versus what he actually did he was one of the 21 fantasy points in week one which put him at wide receiver nine so you can see one of the bigger over performers plus 8.8 that was sixth biggest over performer of all wide receivers in week one so my thing with DJ Moore is if you can sell him off the premise that somebody thinks he's going to produce like a back-end wide receiver one mid-range wide receiver one all year then he would be one of my favorite people to move off of just because I see him more as like a back-end wide receiver too it's not that I not that I hate him like I don't like him I don't like him I don't Like, I think he'll be solid, but I just don't view him where he finished in week one, if that makes sense. We kind of had a similar conversation on the Fantasy Life show yesterday with Dwayne. We were talking about, is a guy like DeAndre Swift a sell high? Because he has this massive game, three touchdowns, and you're excited about the offensive environment. It's like the Bears are going to score a bunch of points. The Bills are going to score a bunch of points. But then you do look at the underlying stuff for Swift specifically, and it's like, ah. I mean, it's not quite a round two role, right? And if someone's willing to value him, like he's now a one-two turn running back, then you actually want to sell high there. It's hard to know, like, yeah, what could you get back for DJ Moore? Like, I mean, here's one for you. I mean, DJ Moore or— Drake London like what what do you do with that one I think I'm still taking Drake London because I like what he offers season long beyond what I think DJ Moore offers just from a talent perspective but it's it's close I mean it's hard to it's hard to want to trust DJ or Drake London in your lineups with uh with Cooper Rush at the helm right now that's for sure yeah yeah that's uh that's a fun one DJ Moore versus Parker Washington um this man this week probably DJ Moore for me I mean Parker Washington against against Denver like he's got he's drawing probably the hardest matchup of any wide receiver so yes um awesome stuff cups I do uh here it is up on the screen if you guys missed it our official Thursday night football uh plays here Jameson higher than three and a half receptions Dalton Kincaid scoring a tutty we also liked you guys missed it our official Thursday night football uh plays here Jameson higher than three Golden higher than 49 and a half in valet higher than 39 and a half I'll put one of those together and um if you are listening after the fact I will include links to those in the description in the show notes cups uh let the people know uh what they should uh check out on your way out the door all right yeah thanks everyone for watching cups analytics on YouTube cups analytics on Twitter um dropping new articles on fantasy life every week I have an article coming out tomorrow morning on players that I'm higher on and lower on in week two specifically also doing a start sit show with Matthew Barry himself every Sunday morning at 9 a.m my time so 12 p.m an hour before the slate starts so you can check that out on Matthew Barry's uh YouTube channel that's where I got gonna be a fun season Pete I'm stoked to be be around for our show and do this every week with you man yes uh we will be back every Thursday at 10 a.m eastern if you guys ever have specific spots that you would like us to discuss we're obviously going to be looking at what happens in the previous week and in you know discussing the most interesting ones but always enjoy the suggestions there we're going to let cups get on his way and now I am very excited for the return of lulls it's been a while let's get ready here does he think I think he thinks this he thinks this is a go Vegas Dave thinks this is a go hot naked girls doing yoga what why don't you just win like a man random.org type in one for yes two for no let the DFS cats pick for you and I'm absolutely begging you not to do please don't do all right there he is crutches knows the deal time to get political forget the utilization trends let's talk about politics in America how you doing Brian good how you doing Pete doing good you even got the lulls hat on I got the purple background we are officially uh back in the mix here did it pain you when I said that DeAndre Swift might be a sell high right before you came on no not at all yeah I mean they're going off though on the run game geez I know dude yeah were you uh is this the year is this the year for your beloved bears um probably yeah this is probably um defense not looking too good though Pete it's not it's not but I mean so yeah I guess for pure fandom that's frustrating watching your team give up a ton of points but for fantasy god is it right incredible yeah which is definitely more important let's be real here let's be real yeah what's been new with you obviously getting everything up and running for football season with run the sims I assume has been uh taking up most of your time yeah just fighting fighting the llm all day long yeah yeah my my conspiracy theory is there they they um pump out their their cpu power and tokens and they're not going to be able to win the game they're going to be able to win the game based on like whatever they need in the moment like marketing wise and so like if a new model comes out they just they just pump and you're like this is this is the greatest model of all time this could yeah for tomorrow and then and then once that wears off they start saving a little money pulling back the power and you're and you're like okay this is the dumbest who who thinks this is going to take over the world it can't even do a simple task and then the old models like to become completely useless when they were good and then they're like oh my god like a month prior so I need them to draw I need some marketing push I need some actual llm power I don't even I'm so lazy like I'm primarily a claude guy and I you know I'm kind of defaulting right now what looks like I'm using sonnet 5 most efficient for everyday tasks but then you go to the drop down more models and there's like nine of them you know there's opus there's the haiku there's the fable how do you know which one to use well the the most recent one is going to be the best one yeah well like fable like I also have another conspiracy theory that if you use like an outside harness so like outside a claude codes desktop downloadable app like I think they like you have to use a plug in to kind of because they don't want you doing it I think they like recognize it and just eat your tokens up but fable will just burn through this the simplest of tasks if you if you especially if you don't know what you're doing so you kind of have to use the other ones opus was like you're an older one you're using a pretty shitty one honestly but like it depends what you're doing what about sonnet 5 that's yeah no that's old okay well opus kind of I'm not doing anything really heavy if you're not doing anything it doesn't matter yeah yeah exactly yeah that's that's kind of the key to saving tokens is like um the simpler tasks just use your kimmies or whatever any cheap stuff you can get deep flash is fine too and it's all dirt cheap I don't know what it says about me that when I hear the word tokens my brain still immediately goes to Chuck E Cheese tokens like that's what I still going back to my childhood maybe eventually I'll I think you're gonna say nfts or something like that's what I go to yeah exactly uh so what would have been the big things with for getting run the Sims like what kind of uh stuff have you been doing um as far as like all spending all that coding power your token yeah we redid the whole thing like everything back on front end Sims projections modeling yeah yeah so it was probably uh it was probably too big of a task to do but yeah it was it was time I wanted to do it so but once once it gets automated and smooth it'll be you know lightning fast it's just this this period is just a pain in the ass driving me crazy uh I bet I bet yeah we had a we had a good show with uh with Uticao on Friday he was all over uh you know he mentions the Bryce Young stacks I think someone had a comment in in the chat after there's just like is you to ever wrong uh I mean his his hit rate on just like touting even like he admitted that he was coming in pretty blind too to that slate but I mean he truly is a savant when it comes to this stuff I don't know if that's good or bad because like the uh the calci bros they are out in force Pete I don't know if you've noticed more like sports bread and cash you bros in your Discord or or chat room or anything I've noticed it in like yeah around the Sims and stuff yeah and they they are brutal man they are brutal you get well you get one of those as soon as he gets one of those picks wrong they they go after him oh yeah Uticao is gonna be an idiot to them you know like oh my god it is really the difference right when the the hyper specificity of giving out a single side or a single pick like the entire focus is underneath the magnifying glass right it's like that's what you're focused on and then it has a DFS where the audience understands mostly ranges of outcomes probabilities yeah leans takes on other stuff and it's like yeah most of your like GPP shit isn't going to hit but if you have like two to three takes and one of them is on the biggest value hit stack of the week like that is just such a ginormous win from like a touting perspective that it is interesting how like the DFS lens for how you profit process a tout compared to like a spread pick and then it's just like oh you fail you you lost the yeah yeah I mean we've said on this show for a long time the uh sports betting communities the nut low they really are like they're they're the they're like the most complainers the the uh the worst in the forums I don't know the DFS bros are pretty pretty decent comparatively like if you tiered list poker bros sports betting bros DFS bros I don't know who prediction market bros can you put them in their own category now I think so how do you yeah like how do you define like are I mean because part of the whole thing is like the overlap between prediction market bros and sports betting bros is a lot of them are just doing sports betting on prediction markets is there a classic is there a distinction between them in your distinction between DFS and um home league fantasy I would say yeah yeah which one is the which is is is is hope is DFS is the whole prediction bro DFS is the prediction bros home league bros are the sports bettors they're they're they're they're not as bad but yeah yeah crutches exactly the parlay injury injury refund bros on Twitter it's hilarious especially considering Fandles uh you know um refund issue on week one of NFL man uh people wanted us to talk about that uh for sure what was the run the sims discord like on on Sunday morning with that yeah no one could get anything done um people who don't know fanduel like wouldn't allow or not that they wouldn't allow there was some sort of bug in their system where you couldn't edit your lineups so a lot of people just had dead lineups going into kickoff and there was nothing they could do about it yeah yeah and there was like a little hack some people in the discord uh mentioned it where you know how i think we've messed with it once on stream you know how if you build a lineup it has like suggested it will like help you build it out the guru if you use the guru you could submit your lineup if you went over to that tab so i was able to get my entries in and luckily some people in the discord did as well but for everybody else uh who didn't find that loophole it was an absolute disaster uh yeah i know but that that was the one thing that worked was guru on on my phone to get the the lineup in i i was super bummed out because uh you gave uh is giving us uh free rolls for the deposit kingdom we had the big free roll at every you know and i'm sure people put more entries in you know once you're gonna play the free roll might as well toss it into something else and then to have that user experience but um they did you know refund all stuff uh with the uh with the bonus cash there but i just thought i think the comms on it too was frustrating right like they didn't people were left in a holding pattern for a while not knowing what was actually going to happen yeah i i think the uh the the length of time it took for them to respond and then the um the refund wasn't in cash it was in band or whatever yeah and you have to spend it within a week yeah so uh i think that was the thing that where most people where do you where do you come down on that like there's two things you know because one of the biggest complaints and i understand this happens in underdog drafts too right like there's two things you know because one of the like if someone tanks a draft and you have your draft thrown out you just spent 45 minutes drafting that you get your money back or whatever but you also just wasted 45 minutes that's what a lot of people were saying with fanduel like hey i spent five hours building my lineups on saturday and sunday and then i couldn't put them in how like is it you know it's almost like a game of like pr and goodwill of like is there anything these sites can realistically do to make up for people's lost time spent building lineups yeah no the one difference though from the underdog example you gave is they did pay out people who won yes so you were essentially free rolling yeah yeah so if they didn't like underdog you can't you get nothing right you get you don't get your time back how much is that time worth who knows but uh they did do the it was a free roll so um you know i mean should they have just given it cash back i guess i don't know does the free roll does um do they save money because i was thinking like why wouldn't they just cancel the slate like 15 minutes before the slate just go all right nuke it refund all the money we just won't have a main slate for week one do they make more money that's a good question raking the winners in free rolling i almost wonder what is what's a word because there were people that were able to submit lineups and i don't know when the outage happened like did people who made their lineups on saturday did that work it was a while i don't know but it was a long time maybe because i i almost wonder if just the the blowback and the user experience is almost even worse if you cancel the slate because then you do have people who got their lineups in and then they're like what the hell where it's almost like probably better to just let it run and then free roll yeah yeah yeah there's there's the marketing aspect that what's this the optics of canceling your world war one slate has to be way worse than whatever the may coke has a world war one slate week one slate yeah basically yeah uh for sure um yeah um that yeah we've talked about this with drafts i mean i don't mind this idea where he says uh will be says take the person's money who tanked and give it to the other uh drafters there as well but again like a 25 draft is the uh you know uh the two dollars hitting your account uh going to make you feel better i don't know maybe we talked we talked about that for like an episode or two to like well like is that fair then to the other people who aren't in that that pot or that draft because you gotta you might have you have a dead team there yeah where i'm competing against somebody good but you know what pete there's no more basketball in massachusetts anyways that's right what does it matter to you i'm prediction market pete uh now uh speaking of which uh how many times have you watched the footballs uh i i mean it's it's on twitter so which one is that is the one with the footballs just yes yes exactly just sports uh it apparently the funniest part of the whole sydney sweeney thing i mean talk about a smash of an ad for them like i think the novig handle is like through the roof after that like a really good roi but then there's been all the backlash it's the funniest version of backlash it's like they're saying like real athletes women in sports feel like she co-opted their thing but she never even like said she was a woman in sports but females are very upset about sydney sweeney now um you know i was just thinking like pete is angling for a novig sponsorship real hard i can see he's he's i'm willing to show a little skin i know i was like maybe if maybe if you were willing to go as far as davis was with that flock ad uh i i did see a barstool uh recreated it uh i don't know if you've seen it but i think it's a really good i don't know if i think i saw big cat retweet it uh they did recreate it with one of their their personalities uh i don't know if i'm gonna be able to find it on his feed but yes go ahead go give me give me the take uh on uh on the sydney sweeney ad and novig uh i mean i i i could care i could care less that um women in sports are pissed about it i don't give a fuck um have you been like where have you been getting your action down like what prediction markets are you playing cal sheet mainly uh yeah i can't get on poly market although i'm told it's legal um but every time i go on there i've actually haven't tried it in a while and so i'm plugged into the api and cal sheet yeah just bet like uh auto bet mlb props um maker side never never take um although i've um i just stopped it because i'm i can't concentrate on it at all i have like no time so yeah not although i was barely paying attention to it anyways i'm just letting the bat do do to the bidding and canceling the bidding which can be a little risky you know when news comes out and stuff yes you want if you're making anyways and not taking what was your thought one of one of the other kind of big things in our circle that broke a couple weeks ago is etr rufus uh a lot of those guys taking their um their models um over to the prediction markets it we didn't get a ton of details on exactly what happened um what were your your thoughts on that and maybe explain to people as well as you understand it what what went down yeah well they off etr for sure obviously has had a prop product for years and then they've they've they've morphed that prop product product though every year it's been a little different like i think the first year was like all-inclusive stats and and props um and then they and then i don't know how quickly they implemented a um like a notification system like hey we're gonna drop a prop and then they would put in their discord so like people had a fair shake before the line moved and then they said i think they you know i don't know the entire history of etr but i think then they separated the stats into a different package from the props package and then eventually long this year they've taken it private and i don't think we we know fully right uh um what they're doing um i mean i i don't do you do you know pete you might not be able to say i do but i'm pretty sure you don't right i i don't have any insider information but as i understand it my my guess is that some big you know market maker or whatever wants to buy their model to help the numbers that they're putting up and offering massive liquidity to on these prediction markets that's kind of my guess is that they're selling it to like an individual or just one single group and then you know the risk takers podcast had a good conversation about this as well but like the idea of only having one customer versus 200 angry people in discord where the lines move or it doesn't win or whatever and just have one group that is going to be very uh i don't know hands off and like not question everything and just give them the numbers like that sounds like a dream pivot for that product like i don't know how you could blame them for doing that no i mean how dare they you know do something with their private intellectual property right that's the public's that's the people's projections not yours levitan um yeah no like it's kind of cool too and interesting and something different to do so i bet i bet it was appealing i Rufus. Do you think Rufus got him to do it? it well rufus took his model as well like yeah i'm sure it's got to be all the same it's all related i'm sure well those guys too were joking that i guess he took his i think it's his golf stuff his college football stuff but his as you see in this tweet here the nfl ratings this season for unabated uh will still be live which then begs the question are the is the nfl stuff is there not a huge edge on that right because you're only going to pull the stuff that there's a really big edge on if you're more in line with the market or whatever that you're willing to leave that up is it kind of acknowledging like hey i don't have an extreme edge in this i mean that's possible it also could be we're reading between the lines so who knows but like this season maybe he's like hey last season i told you guys i'd do it so i'm gonna do it one more year he's just being cool that could be it too and they're gonna pull it next year and then he could be like hey listen man i told you guys yes you know his quote was we were making prediction markets for college football last year as well and had a very good year there this is rufus and he says i think at this point you can scale in ways that you couldn't before prediction markets as an originator um which which makes uh a ton of sense in publishing because you're basically saying you know you need subscribers or whatever to offset the cost or to be you know what is driving um your income or whatever for for that product not only does it move the market you know or whatever but like it's it is hard to scale like how many people can reasonably buy that whereas like how do you understand it that they're that this is scaling is it just on transaction fees that you're getting a cut of that in these prediction markets how how is this so lucrative do you think oh i'm sure they're taking the numbers and just and just making them and someone who's i would guess who knows but i mean they could they could have done this themselves honestly they didn't have to partner um but i we're guessing they did partner with someone and then they're just they're just making i'm sure they're making uh props and whatever else they um they think their numbers are good on and whatever else they could probably contribute to the syndicate or whatever they're calling themselves um on cal she poly market too and if you're in a group you can get on all the all the um exchanges too like even if like i think denver allows everything but like if if um if colorado didn't allow uh poly market like they can someone in the group i'm sure can get access to it and then make on poly market as well it is a huge pain in the ass though i do understand not taking on all of it yourself because it is a pain in the ass getting the api and stuff like i think i told you once like my first bet on profit x was supposed to be like five cents or something or five dollars i just threw a test one and it's like 500 and it's like oh my mistake you know that was a whole number it's like yeah great fan duel is now available everywhere in the u.s so you can get in on the sports action no matter where you are including these places make this your most rewarding season ever with age and location restrictions apply product availability varies by market see fanduel.com for eligibility gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER well yeah it allows you to do what you're best right like etr wants to grind their cocks to a nub making the best possible projections and like you know we've talked about that with sports betting stuff too right it doesn't just become about the number it's you have to have the team you have to have you know the beards the horses like everybody going the mules for you to do that like you're managing that you're trying to collect money like it's a whole administrative infrastructure needed whereas this is probably a pretty clean solution for them levitan says in the quote here the money we were making from the props product wasn't that large especially relative to the stress and headaches involved and he said we're looking at this as a test he would not disclose who etr is working with other than making one point clear we aren't selling the data to a sports book so yeah i mean it is i mean when you you there were a lot of people who are mad i assume the people who are mad are people who are not selling the data to a sports book so yeah i mean people who are getting an insane deal on using their data in numbers to make money on their own and now that isn't available to them yeah i i think that's exactly what it was like why would you complain if you hate it like if it sucked like why would you care so like you obviously were getting value out of it i mean i mean i mean i guess i understand i understand being upset like hey i was using this and i'm not using it that makes perfect sense but then to like um like um i saw like it looked like wiggins got uh got burned for like a totally reasonable take on twitter i don't know if you saw that one he had to kind of like about the about the underdog sale oh was it the underdog one okay yeah underdog one was underdog for yeah yeah but like either and either way though like there was a lot of etr hate going on when they made this decision and and it's like it's like it's their private property man like yeah you had you had you had a good deal while while it was going but i mean i know like he's saying like the stress time and headaches perhaps it's kind of just it's just like a um like a no-brainer kind of thing like it's already part of their process so like why wouldn't they do it that's probably why they started doing it yeah imagine yeah go ahead no i just like to put it in you know in this business actually ran i remember like denny and sal used to have this business called a draft day consultants and it was essentially like a fantasy concierge service where people who were like wanted to crush their draft but they're like i just want to outsource this like will you do a call with me will you do the draft for me whatever like imagine you have a service like that and you charge like a hundred dollars an hour or whatever and you're doing really well and you have like 200 clients and you're doing that you're you have to hire analysts to do all of that stuff or there's one guy who plays in a hundred thousand dollar league who comes to you and says i'm willing to pay you 50 you know i don't know whatever yeah 20k 20k to just help me win this league and you're like okay that's as much money as we're making from 200 individual people all these emails all this organization yeah we're gonna get rid of all this and just do a one person consultation with this guy like that's to me essentially what this trade-off is for them and it's like how do you blame anyone for making that move even though i'm sure there were a lot of people who valued the product and really enjoyed it yeah yeah i would guess though it was it was more than yes double triple quadruple quadruple quadruple quadruple quadruple quadruple quadruple quadruple quadruple quadruple it would be interesting to see how it was structured like guaranteed like we guarantee this much or something like that or if it's just like a kind of typical um originator uh um syndicate thing where they give him a cut or a free roll or something like that like if they're just getting a piece i was wondering how do they separate this though you know like we've talked about the idea of like they've hired you know rufus for golf one year they've hired like people over the years and stuff and had various deals college football they still do but then how do you split that pie going like how much does how much damage does you know like like um like evan get in this you know like how do you do that like i would assume that it's part of just their overall income streams that like i i doubt that it is segmented because in the same way in adam's reference before like you know the money that you can get like with partnerships for dfs and even sports betting is like fairly limited i mean levitan mentioned on his podcast like they took prize picks for seven figures and then price picks like yeah we're never doing another deal with you like we don't want your customers so my thought my guess is they're viewing this as like an extension of like a big partnership or sponsorship like this is filling that void of a traditional affiliate partnership that would just be my guess of like we're replacing this um as that income yeah but i mean like the etr guys they're like how many guys do they have working on the football stuff yes like 15 yes right but i mean most of those guys are on salary right well that's that's what i'm thinking i was like yeah um like it could be like hey i'm i'm the one coming up with these you know half of this work or something you know someone there it's probably like oh and you're just gonna go i could go to cal sheet i could do that too you're like it could be like if you're not incentivizing everyone right it could cause some problems yeah i mean potentially i do think there's the um you know you know what i'm saying like if you make a hundred grand a year you make a hundred grand and then and then it comes like oh we did our partner our partner made 15 million this year yeah and uh cal she and poly market you're like oh great good great yeah yeah you know i guess i'll grind my dick to an up for 100k i think uh i think you would hope that the rising tide uh lifts all boats and everybody's kind of compensated accordingly for whatever the uh knowing the new value of what you're doing because like the like college football we get we're totally guessing but like we we we assume like they give the guys like 35 or 45 or something of the subs that come in for college football cut and dry easy they do well they do well you know that type of thing like how do you do that now when like like if they sold the college football they're like oh yeah i'm gonna do that football numbers like i guess then you just keep that cut going um but it's weird when it's like a company yes no it is yeah i'm not i'm not sure exactly how they would uh they would handle that so i'm saying that's this is good for the show we could have some conflict there and dude dude lord lord knows we need it it was funny uh you mentioned that uh conflict on lulz because the uh i went and looked at because view youtube basically recently changed how they are registering views so views are all higher right now than they were previously it's a little hard to untangle with the start of the football season because naturally this is also the biggest time for views you know late august drafting week one etc but anyways i went and looked at my most popular videos um because now the dfs show i did on friday with yuta jm leone that's my second most viewed video on the youtube channel and i'm not sure if you can see it but i'm not sure if you can see it but anyways i went and looked at my most popular videos um because now the dfs show i did on friday the channel in my top three videos are so hilarious because it's the top shot intro explainer video then it's week one dfs from just the other day and then our interview with hoop uh is those are the top three across the board i was like you know what you got to give me this this channel has range from digital collectibles to dfs to uh you know sports betting drama or however you would classify that that's funny did you tell a story on on any any other podcast about how you got recognized uh at the uh u-haul or whatever no i did not tell that story uh i should that uh so i i this was um maybe two or three weeks ago and i i messaged brian this story but um i was having to like transport a bunch of like tree branches and stuff that i had taken down when my dad was here i don't have like a pickup truck or anything like that um and so i was like i'm gonna try to rent a truck for the day i call this rental uh company and the guy's like yeah we don't have anything and then like right as i'm about to hang up he's like he's like do you are you the fantasy guy and i'm like oh boy oh boy i was like i was like yeah yeah i do fantasy stuff and he tells me that he is uh this is how he knew me he's a run pure sports sub but he listened to lulz and referenced the hoop episode like i think he came over to watch that and i was like i i don't think you're actually a fan of what i do i think you just saw the hoop hoop uh thing and so the funniest part about this is he initially had told me that um that they had nothing available no available trucks and then after the bit of small talk he goes well let me see if i have something for you let me see if i can can find so i was like oh because i did the podcast about hoop maybe there is a truck in the back for me uh narrator they're in and out being a truck but like also then i got worried brian because on the way out then he goes let me ask you one question who's a sleeper for for this year like this guy has my number now and this feels like an issue that was my favorite part i thought you told you told me he couldn't get you something like at the end but then still ask for a sleeper pick yes yes he did not help me out at all i'm not giving you a sleeper you give me the truck he and he did call me back later and he was like yeah i have this like van if you need i was like i need something that i can throw like a bunch of tree branches in man i don't think he's like yeah yeah that won't work i think he just wanted to call me back once more so yes uh if you uh do a a fantasy channel long enough you too might be get recognized on the phone uh with hertz rent a car there um i feel like a a few other things that have been in the news the uh the hot topic right now is if that sports betting tax situation with the 90 percent of losses being able to be written off versus the percent uh that has been a big talking point of late um did you have any thoughts on that i mean it's it's just out of committee doesn't mean anything really yeah yeah it's just like a um a part of the the process like you got to read you got to read it and then get it out of committee because i mean it's something but a lot of these bills they're just there to appease their constituency yeah so like this lady is nevada and i guarantee she's got um sports books breathing down her throat and casinos breathing down her throat and so she's got to tell you know she's got to go like listen i got to get this for her at least i don't care if it passes yeah yes or at least get your committee she this lady dina titus uh she has definitely endeared herself uh to the sports betting community to like go off queen she's the only one who cares about us she's fighting for us she doesn't give a shit about you buddy i'm sorry sorry this is how i find out yes dina titus you don't think this lady gives a shit about me and my gambling taxes i don't think so wow i think the guy at hertz rent-a-car cares about you more than dina titus that's true the other kind of uh depressing part about this is and this guy tweeted out um one of the odds from calci on this and he's saying seeing a lot of people celebrate the 90 rule has been 100 repealed and is dead and yet calci odds are still sitting at 30 right now that this is actually even going to happen that's pretty i didn't know they had a market that's pretty amazing that seems about right i that that that seems like a nice over under actually 30 yeah which again for people uh who haven't been following this story anyone who you know gambles or as uh does this as a living is very well aware but you used to be able to write off 100 of your gambling losses and now for some reason uh it was like earmarked in some giant bill right that uh only 90 were going to be able to be repealed so if you know you had big wins on draft kings but then you lost a bunch on fan duel uh instead of being able to kind of net those out it's only netting out 90% of your gambling losses so which is just like i mean that's the difference between like beating the rake or having like you know a decent year turned into a break even or a lost year which is just pretty insane when you think about it yeah it's great i mean the easiest way is like if you bought a lottery ticket for 10 bucks and lost you owe a dollar to the government yes like anyone who who would like hear it that way would be like what how is that and of course no one's going to do that so it's only going to have to be like targeted for like pro gamblers and stuff like that or or maybe like the jp pritzkers of the world who might be a pro gambler by the way yes i mean we've heard about his uh his exploits there excellent one thing one thing i wanted like how fragile do you think the prediction market legislation is right now there's the story from end of august i just found the tweet um the u.s court of appeals for the ninth circuit uh ruled that states can ban sports event contracts from prediction markets the 30 ruling upheld decisions from the u.s district court for the district of nevada against calci crypto.com and robin hood this is something we've heard a lot right like these states and you know the interests that be who are invested in sports betting and traditional stuff like they do not like the prediction market being able to offer sports contracts and essentially sports betting in their jurisdictions what did you make of this like on what kind of footing do you think prediction market legislation sits right now i i don't know i don't know how much any of this changes changes i think it just changes kind of like the um the velocity or the speed at which this gets resolved like eventually in in the supreme court so i i think we're looking closer and closer to them to actually get this to the supreme court who knows how they're gonna they're gonna i my guess is it's is is it's the same as i've had for a couple years now is it'll be legal in some states and not legal in other states but who knows maybe the whole thing goes away or i i don't i don't see a world where it's like cftc is rules it and all the states have it like i don't see that happening um but but maybe and um and i think with with trump in office i still think that kind of protects them a bit for the next year and a half or whatever it is so i think i think they have some time but you i wouldn't surprise me if you like see this in the supreme court sooner rather than later with all these with all these rulings like maybe like even before the end of the year i don't know what their schedule is they probably retire and take like a six-month winter break who knows um but yeah that's my guess is is i think it's picking up steam to get to the supreme court what do you think i was just laughing envisioning like sydney sweeney testifying uh the supreme court with that with that break i mean sydney sweeney breaks the internet like every other week but just imagining her testifying uh about her ad would be i don't know going back to that did you read and maybe someone can confirm if this was true but i thought i heard her say the impetus for it and she took like an equity deal with novig it wasn't just a cash marketing deal that she was mad about some of the markets that calci and polymarket were offering like what color underwear will blah blah blah sydney sweeney be wearing and that like this was her way to like get back at them of being like i will go help one of your competitors did you hear that i didn't hear that i mean wow right like how are this is this is the kind of news that's right up your alley and i'm breaking it to you i'm just like her rationalization for taking money to get naked is it's great yeah i mean i have nothing to do with anything else just to get back at them saying putting up a prediction market on her underwear color that's why she got naked for well i guess i guess the question like to frame it you know more for our land you know for people who are building tools um and content around prediction markets obviously the operators themselves like the it's a scary thing to know that you could be devoting so much time and money to something that is on shaky legal ground certainly yeah i mean i look at it as like a double-edged sword though because then a lot of a lot of people aren't getting involved who would be like big money or smart people or stuff like that depending on what if you're like looking in business or just to bet yourself or make yourself there's a lot of people who are getting scared away who who who might uh take away some of the market share from you so it's it's good and bad right now so i mean it i mean i don't think we have a choice i don't think you have a choice like etr doing this you know you have to look at it and if you're someone who originates like you have to look at it and like all these people who do that i they already have like they don't need me to say it so um i don't i just think you're you're you don't really have a choice you have to be involved it is scary it's keeping some people out which is good um i don't think anyone knows how it goes like if if what like it feels like it's not going anywhere to me but i also didn't think poker would be banned and then not be around ever again in illinois so i mean what do i know yeah i don't yeah i don't know it it does seem like the distinction of sports uh contracts like could end up being like the sticky point like i don't think prediction markets are going away but i do think it is it's hard to reconcile having like two different sets of rules for essentially the same type of product yeah i don't know if you listen to the novig guys have a um have a podcast too and they had some lawyer on there and he was saying um the problem with some of this type of stuff and obviously we're not lawyers here we're bro lawyers though so that's halfway there um they uh uh the problem is like everything's gambling and so like depending on how they they rule on this stuff it could affect a lot of like stock stuff and options and all sorts of different because that's like it's that's gambling too whether you know grandpa thought so or not it's gambling right the stock market's gambling um so they have to be like extremely careful they might have like be forced to instead of upsetting the apple cart um is is a chance there yeah i mean like i don't know and like obviously it's gambling it's it's um it's yeah clearly i think the distinction of peer-to-peer though does get left out like it shouldn't here like it shouldn't in our world because like that's super important to us but like it gets left out in the you know general twitterverse and in society society like it's like there's a big difference between you putting up a bet and some other dude taking it which happens a lot i know eventually maybe it will get smaller and smaller and just like syndicates handling it but right now a lot of normal dudes are putting up bets and taking bets and that's not what happens with a sports book and so it is it is sports betting but it is a different thing it's i mean it's not like a distinction without a difference like there's definitely a difference there of a peer-to-peer and it's all this is all made up laws are all made of bullshit anyways it's all about power and who who has the influence at the time and so like that's really what it's going to come down to like the logicking doesn't matter like logically this is technically more classified in this category like no one gives a fuck in in in the capital like they care about their constituencies fan duel is now available everywhere in the u.s so you can get in on the sports action no matter where you are including these places and georgia and houston cleveland minnesota buffalo lincoln chow town arizona make this your most rewarding experience and i'll see you next time on the sports action show awarding season ever with fan duel agent location restrictions apply product availability varies by market see fanduel.com for eligibility gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER do you think we could see more innovation for game types within the prediction market sphere as far as like peer-to-peer games like we always talk like when draft kings ran the uh the sports betting competition or whatever world championship or whatever like i do feel like the prediction market stuff would be well equipped to host some really fun peer-to-peer game peer-to-peer tournaments within that orbit uh without having to have the guaranteed prize but we always talk about like the the sunday million poker tournaments that could just have an increasing prize pool right like stuff like that could be really fun if it actually gets on the prediction market rails that's a good idea pete yeah and and it would probably help them um their public image a little bit too and like building up normal dudes who market make you know and i think that's a good idea i think that's a good idea i think that's a good idea you know like like like rufus is a normal guy i mean you know normal in our world anyways right like he's just a dude who you know got into gambling and made a model and kept getting better yeah like um so like they could make they can make some of these personalities um give them like a face and you know uh draft kings can't really do that like draft kings faces you know kalish and you know and limiting people and you know i think that's a good idea so like they they they could do stuff like that i i mean i do think they are pivoting on i don't know if you agree with this like their marketing is a little less abrasive i i feel like um which is good because they were drawing a lot of unnecessary negative attention i think to wait who who's who's marketing cal like calci poly market twitter stuff you know they would or or like um they they still have some controversial markets up there too but like i feel like there's less i kind of i kind of hate gamblers complaining about that stuff other than like obviously we want we want them to succeed so we don't want them to screw screw themselves but like i i love the idea of like weird weird like that you can bet on sydney sweeney's color for underwear you know i mean like i think that stuff is is interesting i mean it's not like i do it but like you know nothing like i told you my line was the um the measles the measles one or whatever like an infectious disease where there's an incentive for someone to spread an infectious disease seems like that's a bridge too far for me but like that's pretty far like everything else i think it's just fun and don't you think there's an incentive for voyeurs to try to figure out what uh color underwear sydney sweeney is is wearing too worried about that instead of it's fun with it maybe they shouldn't have it but it's still fun maybe they shouldn't have it but it's still fun it can be both things dude the uh that you mentioned kalish one funny thing so like uh herzig and uh cam mcmillan they're starting their new like prediction market company uh predict uh q or whatever and he announced the uh the investors in it and uh i don't know if the viewers can see this on the screen here there's so many uh i don't think anyone can see look at this look at who's the last person listed down here in this prediction market matt matt kalish there no it's it actually says zero percent uh which was which which was a a pretty good joke there because it got me at first i was like if this fucking guy is investing in uh prediction market startups uh he really should throw a buck on kalish you know it's the long shot but yes exactly but yeah did you did you had did you see this uh this company that's quite the business that is a lot of shareholders yes yes yeah it's an interesting structure they kind of have going where it's like this shared like i'm assuming part of the benefit is like some of these guys have money and institutional strategic investors yeah they have institutional knowledge as well and most of them have some some audience which is huge just being able to get credibility and retweet and stuff so it'd be interesting to see how they they broke all that all that down like what the benefit is for certain people yeah to work hard i guess i'm like the thing that i've been struggling with is like you we mentioned like the analogy of like dfs to prediction markets and like normie home leagues or whatever of like what is the equivalent experience on prediction markets for someone who likes games of skill strategic games that likes salary dfs that likes drafting battle royale teams and thinking about ownership discrepancies what is the equivalent of that experience experience on prediction markets my my hunch is it doesn't exist yet um and and i'm wondering like is there something there eventually because i'm just thinking about like the people who watch these shows who hang out in our discords and these channels like we like a specific type of puzzle for me that prediction market that puzzle isn't quite there yet but maybe i'm just being narrow-minded with it i i don't know as you were saying that i i kind of agree with you i don't i don't know like it's not like sports bettors i was i i was talking to uh edelstein jeff and he was doing an article and he called me up and um and we were talking about you know like how ai's eventually you're just gonna be like okay no you it's the cubs you know mine minus 137 is the perfect number like the ai is going to get so efficient that like all these sports betting markets will be unbeatable or whatever and or something along those lines and i was like you know but like the the average sports better who i think who's you're talking who you're talking about like the average bro they're like they're like um you know hanging out watching the bears game and like okay let's bet i don't let's bet swift over rushing yards that'll be fun to cheer for in the moment they go okay swift what'd you get it at i don't know just bet it you know like yeah and then you and then you bet like you bet you know whatever 20 bucks or whatever you feel like that and then you all go like all right swift got the ball you got the ball right that they do not give a shit about the lines kelsey you know so it's just like a big marketing game of like now people like kelsey for some reason because they marketed it and made it cool for the average person yep for the sharper person it's way better kelsey's just so much better because um because you can make you can get less fees in theory although those fees are keep ebbing and flowing but like you can get like free you can get some like if you make and certain markets unless it's changed you can get free v you can get no vig um if you if you make in some like certain props and stuff like that and that's a huge huge advantage you're playing against for now a decent amount of just other bros so you have a good shot of beating them although they're a lot of them are really sharp sharper than sports books but then you can also still bet on the sports books if you haven't been limited yeah and and arbitrage and all sorts of different things it's just so much cooler and um you could um and and there's like an order there's like the order book data there's a lot of ton of data you can get and if you're creative you know mess around with it and try to figure out if you can find edge in and how the order book flows and stuff like that so i think there's a lot of cool stuff for sharp people to get involved i don't know like i i mean i don't know how many of those people exist but i think there's a lot of cool right um well and you know what's kind of like filling that void to an extent this year and i'm curious on on your thoughts to this and ironically i've seen the uh justin's company the predict doing a lot of content around survivor contests uh etr ramped up their survivor coverage like survivor i've noticed in the public conscience like within our sphere more than in previous years obviously we have the massive prize pools on splash you still have the circuit contest but that again kind of fills that thing that i was talking about where it is a game of skill and there's a peer-to-peer element and there's an ownership and there's a prep and there's a lot to kind of think through from a puzzle standpoint you see a lot of dfs and fantasy players gravitating to that game format i just think it would be cool if prediction markets ultimately could have something like that where there were you know little sports betting type tournaments where everybody has x amount of tokens dare i say to wager on games within a certain window and then whoever has the most highest roi then wins the purse or whatever like it's just like what is the game of skill version over there that isn't just kind of like market making yeah i mean that i would be down for that i would i the thing i would i was thinking about for that type of um line of thinking is like um like how can they try to get it where more bros can bet against more bros as opposed to rufus and etr's new syndicate or whatever you know taking 90 of the share of the make market like how can they wouldn't it be like similar to the way some of these dfs lobbies would gate contests based on experience level what if it was gated by um like volume you know training volume like if you were under x threshold you get into this liquidity pool or whatever right yeah it's possible too but like the but like i don't know how you do it because like like like if you do that with the rfq where you get you're requesting like a par lake line essentially what the rfq means like you get the you get the lowest the lowest bid and like that's what you want and that's what they want and so like the reason they're good is because they give the lowest bid that they could still make money on so like i don't know how it's already kind of like the best of both worlds i don't know like like maybe somebody else has uh has other ideas but really like um just getting the lowest line is already really good for a wreck better yeah you know they they won't even know what's happening but they're getting the lowest like so how do you like so you say like you know what i'm saying like i don't even know what's happening but they're getting the lowest like so how do you like so you say like you know i'm saying like when you siphon off the lowest line for a worse line because it's just it's another bro like is that fair like i don't know like it doesn't sound fair either so like i don't i don't know i don't know how you do it but like it would be cool to try some i wish they would try some some stuff like that yeah but i think they're just in a legal battle right now right and um and and a market share battle right with with with everyone getting involved underdog of everybody else yeah well i think it goes back to the thing of the reason why best ball and these fantasy games were so huge for draftkings underdog as a customer acquisition tool because it's a really sticky product that keeps people on your site for a really long time i'm sure these prediction markets are getting just truckloads of new customers hopping on placing a single wager and then bouncing or whatever um you know i think having these games building out their ecosystem where people actually want to sit on the site for way longer i guess just even the real-time odds like people love watching the real-time graphics of like probabilities of stuff like that's probably a good yeah sticky feature to keep people on there like you see those referenced all the time now um but you still gotta think there's there's more there real quick before i forget we do have another hashtag going for a free uh bag of 12 ounce vasaleros in sun's coffee put lulz in the chat and in a few minutes i will spin the wheel here um but yeah any any other uh thoughts here for you uh brick we've had to cover a lot of ground we'll obviously be going weekly on thursday so as topics come up uh should mention in the deposit kingdom discord we do have a lulz channel that's generally a great spot to drop links to potential show fodder we always check in there you can always tag us on x as well um but yeah anything else on your your mind here brick before uh i bring reeves on for our uh matchups and betting show no no it's good to be back um you know good luck to you pete on your new your your new adventure i don't know what are we calling is this uh the underdog decision changing your life or what i mean not quite i mean not quite right now uh you know it is uh it was definitely a big surprise i mean as i've been saying it'll mainly change things in the spring you know like so much of my off-season content was drafting best ball teams on underdogs so that is you know necessarily going to uh to change but right now i was you know thankful to be able to spin up this show block on thursdays uh i think it's going to be a great addition and you know uh definitely going to play more salary cap dfs this year going to have fun uh running the sims and uh trying to level up my play there it had definitely taken a back seat to the battle royales for me the past couple of years and so now i'm going to come back is that done in massachusetts yes it's done yeah that sucks yeah they are still they are still up and running the prize pools are obviously smaller because you know they lost can you 25 percent have you looked into can you get maker access on underdog prediction markets i haven't looked into that yet yeah i i know i tweeted out i got i got zero responses and likes i'm like is that is anyone going to get access to the underdog prediction market maker like do they even have regular dudes on there yet or if all at all my i've been talking to the people over there because like my even my skin on desktop is still like borked right now it's like halfway between the old like pick'em style site in the new prediction market it's better on mobile um but yeah i think they're still trying to uh to get that figured out but yeah no that that would be fun yeah yeah we could spin something up too pete i could i can help you out if you wanted i'll i'll talk to them that would that would be fun to uh to make some some markets yeah especially yeah especially if um no rufus no rufus is allowed no no yeah this is this is gay just just bros bro yes uh speaking of bros uh bb meat gazer congratulations you just won a uh a free 12 ounce bag of coffee shoot me an email to contact at peter over zet.com to redeem it and uh yeah brick we will be back uh every thursday at 11 a.m eastern and for people uh i'll be posting i am going to isolate uh the lulz part of the podcast and we'll upload that to the lulz feed nothing's changed there so if you're just uh trying to get your lulz on the go in audio form those videos will post uh to the uh the lulz podcast feed and then i'll obviously post the rest of this block to the in a vacuum podcast feed uh brick anything else people should know about run the sims they can always get 20 it's 20 off with with promo code pete off that first payment uh we'll obviously be talking to yuda tomorrow anything else you want to mention that's it promo code pete run the sims.com all right beautiful brick great being back in the saddle with you i will see you uh next thursday and uh good luck this weekend see ya all right it is now time for uh a new show here super excited about this uh i didn't even really get your approval on this name reeves but i'm calling this in the weeds with reeves what do you think about that yeah i like it man i i could deal this is this is your bread and butter though this is why you are the the greatest marketer in the in the business man this is why you can just keep turning over new things yes all you have to do to be the greatest marketer in the business is just be able to come up with cool rhymes off of people's last names that's all there is to it it's all there is to it so this is you know we're gonna figure out exactly kind of the format to this show as we go but this is my thought it's like we got reeves he's in the lab early in the week writing up all these games the terrific worksheet uh i want to pick out a few spots that he finds particularly interesting i know reeves does a lot of content i do a lot of content we can figure out some some unique angles here and then i also think it'd be fun because we're going to do this on thursdays you know to look at thursday night football a little bit maybe at the end of the show specifically i mean i mean we got a good one tonight here right yeah we're a little spoiled uh right right off rip right like you know it used to be a joke you know thursday football is the punching bag i will say the nfl they really dialed up this year i think the primetime game is going to be a little bit more and these international games like you know yeah you we we've done a lot of like 9 a.m sunday mornings uh us being east coast even worse if you're like west coast you know they do the 6 a.m of like browns jaguars or something right no jaguars are good now but you know what i mean and it's like i feel like they actually gave us good matchups this year in a lot of these spots they did yeah that does feel like i you know the league they're they're kind of slow to to adapt to feedback but they probably heard enough this was you know the our thursday night product is awful and they're like all right let's let's actually do something about it yeah but this is a fun one i mean bills are opening that new stadium uh you know bills like a lot these teams played two years ago i think it was 48 42 uh so hopefully we get a run back of that i think everyone would be happy if we had that a similar outcome for sure let's um we'll we'll circle back to this one i think it'd be good to finish on that one i know a lot of people will watch this back um you know on replay uh tomorrow and saturday so maybe we can focus on a few other games um i can show you guys here you can see down below the games that reeves has already written up here almost all of them except uh jags bronx colts chiefs giants rams do i have that correct yeah and ray just posted jags broncos that one's done i have about three players left in the chiefs game and now that will be up as well usually they are all up during the season by by wednesday but early like september is usually slower because we're trying to microanalyze our one sample right you know people want to know like what what do you think about cleef raymond what do you think about kendrick bourne catching it you know you have to cover like everything where if like this week would have happened in week nine so many things would have just been like yeah well i it is it's so true yeah i mean that's that's the fun part and you were also saying just from a process standpoint like you're building out all your sheets your data hubs all of all of this what what would be a fun game uh do you think to to maybe discuss either from a fantasy lens or just the macro you find interesting um i mean i don't know if we're gonna do like what what do we think the idea of this show is gonna be is that we're just looking at matchups are we looking at like angles that could be like prop bets are we looking at you know uh those types of things like what's my we want the goal of this to be i think the goal is to get some ball knowing from you like macro matchup type stuff that could lend itself to you know fantasy edges that we can also maybe place a little prop bet on um or if it is just a macro thing where you're like i think this line is off i i like this side a ton but yeah i i basically would frame it as spots that maybe reeves is higher on than consensus or spots you think the market isn't fully baking in and then kind of really digging into to why you might be higher there or lower okay all right so that gives us a little idea i mean i i think like from just from a matchup perspective and uh where everyone's minds is i think probably vikings bears is probably like the most fun thing i think it covers yeah you know a real football element it is fantasy uh i think a lot of people will be looking at the bears as a team that they want to hone in on for dfs lineups right uh this yeah the carnival team so to speak uh and then you have like this fun mad hatter matchup of uh ben johnson versus brian flores right yeah and i mean i guess like on the viking side we it it does seem like we're gonna probably get carson wins is that how you're kind of assuming at this point i am uh i am assuming that just because you know we don't really see quarterbacks clear concussion protocol usually in one week so i am kind of you know just saying like yeah he'll probably play i think they'll be cautious with it too this is gonna be interesting though right like if wentz plays well here which he probably will statistically play well but i think just like from a real football stance because uh you know what do we do moving forward if the vikings are two and oh and basically carson once has two wins i know it is it is wild uh to think about because it's like i mean basically everyone uh from a fantasy perspective except jordan addison had pretty good games both the running back score now we remove jordan mason from the offense i guess that's a good place to start there's a lot of enthusiasm for damon clayborne and like the season-long streets he was kind of like a fun late round sleeper the ambiguity there what kind of role are you envisioning for him this week i think if we see him at all it will just be for a couple like designed runs like pure runs like he's coming in the game and we're going to hand the ball off to him where it's a clear tell but he's not going to be on the field enough i think to have that be an issue this is a player that is not on the act that like you know didn't play because he can't pass block like yeah like it's it's just something he wasn't asked to do in college he's really electric when you get the football in his hands but the actual nuances of playing the position i think are going to take some time for him so i don't think in a division matchup we're gonna see a lot of them i think we'll just see dj dallas like play like those those empty calorie type of role right like we saw amir abdul will do it for the jaguars last week right the dari ugambawale uh type stuff uh i think that it'll be the aaron jones show in terms of touch count though yeah i'm looking at like the combined scrimmage yard number on underdog right now i'm seeing 80.5 for aaron jones so that's like you're up in big boy territory there like that's barkley type you know numbers generally i mean is that is that too frothy uh or you think the workload will be there to kind of warrant a number like that i do think it'll be there i mean you jordan mason missed week 17 last year uh against the lions and aaron jones had 21 touches in that game uh you know so i do think he only had 63 total yards in that game but it was you know a tougher matchup than what we have here i mean the bears obviously were completely flooded on the ground last year and then in week one you and you're looking at total yards and stance like they they gave up just like a truckload of production to chuba hubbard so and jonathan brooks caught that nice wheel route down the sideline in that game too so like i i mean it's aaron jones fresh right like versus like week 17 of last year too so like he's he hasn't gone through like a bunch of like his ailments that past years i think it's a great spot he's gonna be probably pretty chalky at dfs but i think he's probably decent to good chalk too at his price yeah yeah i actually do i need to look that up do you know what he is uh he's 51 he's 51 yeah that that yeah that's uh okay we're headed toward giga chalk there uh and he's gonna because he frees up because this this week in particular from a slate perspective people are trying to figure out how do we get bijan robinson uh you know justin jefferson jackson smith and jigba cd lamb like how do we get these guys all in the lineup it's not quite as easy as it was last week but aaron jones already gives us a a pathway to do it uh also reeves while we are here let the people know obviously over at sharp we're going to be doing a lot of stuff and we're going to be you have the full worksheet here working through all the games from a data perspective um where can people uh get access to all of this and you got any codes for the people any discounts yeah they gave me show 35 for this which is uh basically like a a two weeks for like the full monthly package uh you know free so you get like a month at the two-week price uh then you get like the worksheets and the betting stuff i'm going to work on some in the future uh getting us some specific worksheet only and then we're going to be doing a lot of work on that so i'm going to uh stuff too so for week one now they they you know the the overlords want us to push you to that to the big product there you go um let's take advantage of that show 35 i mean one question on the bears right like we see you mentioned the carnival uh the circus team here like how bad do you think this defense is is this a team we're just going to target most of the year including this week with the vikings at least until the secondary pieces come back you know if they get you know kyler gordon back and kobe bryant at some point like we're going to be able to get we can at least start the point to maybe they can turn things around but this is a team that has no pass rush they have no pass rushers uh and that's it's just hard to envision that getting better and they're also a team under dennis sound that likes to play a lot of sub packages and that leads to you know getting gashed on the ground which they rolled over into week one so those are things i think they're going to be consistent i think the passing stuff is is nebulous based on health but i think pass rush and the rushing defense is going to be kind of an issue probably big picture yeah looking at this line here uh bears minus three and a half total at 48.5 i assume people will kind of want to rush to the total here just with how many points the bears gave up vikings offense looking competent with wins did you have any leans on on spreader total here this one is probably a stay away for me from from a total perspective just because of the volatility i think we have in this game you know we've seen this matchup now four times twice with ben johnson involved and you know caleb john caleb williams has not been very good in these matchups and not a lot of guys had a ton of uh but he's really struggled when actually the vikings choose not to do the brian floors like wonky like send a bunch of dude stuff that everyone wants to run with last last week right because he blitzed uh at the highest rate for a team since the vikings did it in 2023 uh when he is there they blitz jordan loves 74 of the time the interesting component though was that they led the nfl in pressure rate in week one again on non-blitzes as well and that has been where they've given williams the most trouble when they haven't been able to do that they've been able to when they haven't blitzed caleb williams in these matchups he's he's thrown for the six yards or pass attempt 1.1 touchdown rate and he's taken a sack on seven percent of his drop backs and even if you just isolate last year where he really improved that pressure to sack rate when the vikings didn't blitz him they sacked him on 7.7 percent 8.3 percent of his drop back so uh you know you're brian floors is a guy that could definitely get in his bag and he can create pressures without blitzing and and that's been caleb williams i think the one consistent hurdle that we just need to see him overtake i will say week one was close to like a happy learns how to putt moment it's it's week one it was against the panthers so like we will kind of check ourselves but i mean he had a higher completion rate in week one than he had at any point in a game last year ben johnson has consistently talked about like caleb being more consistent with the easy buttons being hitting those throws and that's when like said the happy learns how to putt like if he gets that added to his game that's where you start to get a little scary right in the ceiling potential uh that we saw last week because i mean he has 30 point ceiling fan duel is now available everywhere in the u.s so you can get in on the sports action no matter where you are including these places make this your most rewarding season ever with fan duel age and location restrictions apply product availability varies by market see fan duel.com for eligibility gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER in his range of outcomes on a weekly basis if those if those things happen so where if you had to assign uh more signal or more noise on one pole you have his week one fantasy finish for caleb williams and on the other you have the pro football focus uh grade for him in week one which i think was qb20 did you see this controversy on oh no but this sounds on par yeah yeah i won't ask you to but yeah they had about qb20 people were uh very pissed and pro football focus had to put out a disclaimer of like you know it's it's not about the result of the play it's about you know the process of the play i think they were referencing even like the roma dunes a catch right where it's like okay that results in a big play but that was an underthrown brawl in roma had to go and make a really good play audit there so yeah there was there was a lot of controversy over the pff rating this week yeah yeah and he he left a couple throws i mean the two uh air quotes targets that colson loveland had uh yeah we're not in the stratosphere but i mean the touchdown that he threw to cole commit was like an insane throw uh yes you know so what what on that note because that's a huge thing for everyone dfs season-long matchups i'm sure we can even look at the numbers in the prop market you know colson loveland has the bagel but the 92 route rate even luther burden a little underwhelming relative to you know say khalif raymond's 35 target share so what do you think actually didn't get home in this uh carnival spot yeah i mean you just feel more bullish right like you know obviously everyone wants in their first week of fantasy like to have those guys do well they were buzzy names at least burden and loveland were and when those guys kind of underperform you're like you know you you were the dudes right like we were supposed to count on you uh but i think when the team scores 59 points if that's a regular occurrence if they really are threatening to be to run down the 2013 broncos like ben john said it was his goal like those are guys that are gonna come along and they're gonna come along and they're gonna come along and guys that are gonna come along for the ride eventually and in particularly in the case of like a dunesay and burden like these guys were eased into action like they uh rome was at a 59 route rate and then uh burden was at 70 like because they missed so much preseason time like those are going to increase we're going to see those guys play more as the season goes on yeah and i'm like looking at their their receiving yard numbers loveland and burden both at 49 and a half receiving yards there um you know rome uh wow rome at 14 and a half i don't know if that's like a an injury related thing that seems too too light to me there but yeah do you have do you have any spots where you are wanting to kind of play the bounce back or do you think there is still a decent amount of volatility as far as how this bears team is going to try to win yeah it could end up being flatter than we all kind of thought you know especially if like they're going to get the ancillary guys in the one thing that i am bullish though on for maybe some of the from a prop perspective if you're looking to play like like like i said 14 and a half i don't know if it's going to be a lot of like like i said 14 and a half i don't know if it's going to be a lot of like i said 14 and a half uh uh for a longest rome catch is is amazing because like his a dot now it's been inconsistent now for three years just uh through even ben johnson and a different you know year one coordinator and the opportunities if you do get blitz it's like he's the one-on-one guy right like the like you saw um so like that would be an angle also like the bears the one thing people don't account for when we talk about the bears that you know it's pretty obvious in retrospect is like they're they for and this goes back to ben johnson and detroit like they're an incredible running team like and sometimes when you're running the ball down team's throat like you don't get that that passing that passing volume uh in particular uh so like the last week was the fourth time since the start of last year that the bears have outrushed their opponent by over 150 yards no other team is more than two of those games so this is a spot though where i think that they will be forced to kind of throw because brian ford is a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy flores does not let you run the football on them particularly like the you know the in the bears didn't really run the ball efficiently in either matchup that these two teams had last year so do you think we're going to get a high drop back rate warren on our matchup show particularly highlighted that if the bears want to have success like one of the best angles against brian flores is uh early down under center passing is like an angle here uh the they go from against shotgun passes on early downs to basically they're the number one team across the board like defending shotgun throws and it makes sense because of the exotics that they run but uh the under center passing stuff they go down to 21st on those runs the past two years so uh if we know that and we have that data i'm sure ben johnson is in his bag and he's looking to find some new wrinkles here too so look for that uh to be in the kind of the arsenal uh under center passing early downs for the bears who do you think what is there any pass catchers that you think would be the biggest beneficiary of that style yeah loveland is the guy that's like the big uh the play action and the under center is what would lead to him so he would be like the maybe maybe the the way i would play the bears is not do like yardage props for them i like your angle of like longest catch or like maybe like receptions right uh would be there because we saw the vikings even in week one against jordan love they'll give up explosives they will give up explosives but like on the down to down basis stuff like they're they're very they're they're very volatile right like it's like a negative epa play or like all of it yes yeah and i see like i'm seeing the reception number for colson loveland at just three and a half uh for this week i assume you think that looks pretty decent yeah and i would assume like because like like from a fantasy perspective i'm not expecting like love them to just come out and have like 25 points and like equal this thing out but i do think it'll be a point emphasis to get him involved in the offense uh this week i think he will have a reception uh for sure there you go wow go ahead go it out on there yeah yeah yeah there was a lot definitely a lot of panic uh in this about colston loveland this week uh what about why we're still on this game what do you think about addison um he was the one that was the odd man out there like do you is that just a stylistic fit with wince is it this offense just can't support you know multiple guys at this point like what should addison uh managers be thinking about no i think it was more just uh a little bit of just like variance and how things went he has 200 yard games in the five games that he's played with once so i think he's an interesting dfs piece as the field is done and i think he's going to be definitely going to play once you know if you're playing once in a lineup this weekend you're probably all always playing jefferson right and then we're probably going to see aaron jones is either leveraged or added to that but i wouldn't look overlook jordan addison especially in this matchup because he when he spikes he does have spike week potential so i'm definitely he's going to be in my pool for sure especially uh attacking this game because i think he's probably the most unique piece uh in it any other spots in this game that you're uh high on are you interesting it sounds like in general for like dfs and stuff that this is between like the bears by low guys and maybe the concentrated stuff with the vikings that this is a spot you'll want to get into pretty heavily yeah and that's the i'm just trying to find a unique way see how the field's going to play this because i like said the bears i think are going to be a popular team weekly so i just want to see if you know people are going back to you know leveling this week is it more of a bird and roam spot or just we need to play through caleb but i like the viking side from like a counting fantasy stat perspective i think that they're going to probably be a little bit more bankable because they're concentrated and i think they're going to be able to do more things rushing and passing where the bears might get kind of funneled into more of a of a passing offense you mentioned maybe this game being a little bit more of a stay away for you as far as just like betting uh the total or the spread are there any games that uh you are interested in in placing a wager on there i would say uh you know this one i don't want to like do a whole spiel and then have there be like a bunch of weather stuff packers jets would be interesting and then commanders cowboys whether you want to take i know jets packers has like a butt like the weather police are out on this one early because they're supposed to are they are they yeah they're supposed to be rain and like potentially heavy rain in this game have the weather police i mean they have like they they get one like one out of every 10 tries right like the weather police normally lose out on it actually battered rig so i'm willing to you know head face first into this monsoon without a parka on here uh reaps if you want to talk packers jets yeah one of my big stances in the off season and you don't want to say week one's going to confirm our priors and this will always happen but i am going to do that right here it's like was that the packers we're just gonna have to throw a lot more this year and we'll see what ends up developing with the josh jacobs thing if there's ever a resolution to that this season but this is the worst offensive line that matt lafleur's ever had since he joined the packers they we removed romeo dobbs and ontavian wicks we have a more condensed target tree uh and then you know the jacobs thing we're down to marshawn lloyd and uh chris brooks right now because we didn't see the ghost of caleb johnson you know and he's just been at the team a couple weeks so maybe he's going to be a little bit more of a problem but i think it's going to be a acclimated but same with naji right like all these guys we thought might be like late season uh interesting names didn't have a role at all so they're a team that i i uh i i've had proof of concept in week one like they they already had to throw uh they only had 16 of their yards were rushing it was their lowest rate in a game since 23 they were sixth and pass rate over expectation in week one uh if you've been you know playing packers guys for the past two years you know they're always negative in that category and the jets uh don't really we didn't really really get a gauge on their defensive changes because starting seven new players on defense because they faced cam ward in week one so i definitely think that there's upside here and i also one of my priors was that i think the jets are a pretty decent offense i don't think they're going to be like elite or anything but i think they have the pieces to be functional like gino has been a quarterback that's in just hyper sensitive to pressure in the sense of his career and last year you know was behind a disaster of a raiders offense of line that lost colton miller had brennan carroll coaching the offensive line jets have a really solid offensive line uh we've got core pieces and breese hall and garrett wilson that are good we've got like an ancillary guy in adonai mitchell and they have good young players though we lost omar cooper last week uh for a little bit of short period but they've got young players that we believe have upside you know if they get more playing time you know in kenyan sadiq and then omar cooper and then mason taylor so the jets are a team that i i think are going to be a really functional offense and i still think their defense is going to be worth it but i think they're going to be a little bit worse than what we saw in week one yes uh so it sounds like maybe you are leaning i see the total here at 44 and a half so whether police notwithstanding kind of leaning to the the over here yeah i i like this game from a passing stance uh a lot uh because i thought gino did a really excellent job you know playing point guard in that game you know uh this is what he can do this we saw it with seattle right like if you have the infrastructure he can do this um and we and you last week and unfortunately the game script just kind of nuked him a little bit but was on his way to having a really strong game he had really strong peripherals so guys like garrett wilson adenai mitchell longest catch his receiving yards i think are a great bet this week with omar cooper being uh probably out as well i think he's in the low 30s right now 33 and a half is what i think draft kings has it at that's a that's a guy i think that's going to hit that again you know if we don't get the monsoon right yeah for sure i think the uh yeah mitchell was someone who you know had an awesome preseason like the buzz was loud there and now cooper out i mean not like he was going to leave the field anyways but like he has to be a big part of this offense yeah i think so we saw we saw him 80 uh route participation he had the 60 yards caught the good the the long deep ball so that's what you get from him yeah i see it here on on underdog 24 and a half uh you like that that number there yeah yeah yeah i like that a lot i mean i have it on my list for our you know at 33 and a half so i like that 24 i have even more you might get that in one catch yeah um all right we're gonna we're gonna get that one going here actually one thing i wanted to ask you about with the jets they were like extremely run heavy um this week like how much of that do you think was a byproduct of hey they were just handling the titans um because there is like enthusiasm like can we get gino cooking it sounds like you think this might be a spot where they are actually are forced to uh to throw a bit more yeah i think the packers are gonna score offense is still one i think it's gonna generate uh points they're gonna have to score so i do think we're gonna get more passing volume uh than we saw last week it was mostly like that it's the second half they just completely took the air out of the ball yes um all right i am just i got this uh the it's only 1.49 x on the 80 mitchell higher than 24 and a half maybe some of you guys in pick'em states can slide that number up but i'm gonna go ahead and book that just if reeves likes it at 33 i'm gonna take it and i'm gonna go ahead and book that just if reeves likes it at 33 i'm gonna take it there at 24 and a half um i'm doing my best guys with the lakes like i've mentioned a few times like the desktop version of underdog is just like borked for me um but i am able to do some of these on mobile and i'll do my best to uh to mention them and round them up in the show notes as we go so we do like packers jets higher 44 and a half we like 80 mitchell 24 and a half you know we talked about with alex cups at the top of the show the matthew golden and christian like how close is that gap for you between those two heading into week two after golden actually even had better usage than watson yeah i still think it's gonna be tight and we still have a ramp up for tucker craft too i think by the time the dust settles we have like the 10 000 foot view i do think the top four guys including jayden reed are probably all gonna be in like that 17 to 22 percent target share range uh it's just the fact that we don't have like a fourth and fifth guy now like pulling away at that um and then if we if we never get a good running game the rest of the season i think it's it's viable for all those guys to have solid years the one concern that i do have and it's only one week uh but it's one week plus last year is uh with matthew golden kind of having this extended role is jayden reed now is starting to look a lot like kind of the green bay khalil shakir and oh no cup cup said josh downs and that felt better than the khalil shakir that that hurts my soul what i mean by that is so early in his career so jayden reed we've always known like the one to two wide receiver set stuff you've seen the stat dropped uh you know many times it's gotten recycled right uh and that was prevalent still in week one he only played in 11 personnel but early in his career he was a slot player that got vertical targets and shakir was like this his first two years too at buffalo and then as they started to get players around him or you know the in the bills didn't get like target earners around but guys that could stretch the field like the a dot shrunk and i kind of thought last year like is it the a dot shrink because he's banged up like was he just banged up and that's what happened but then in week one he just had 5.6 air yards per target so it's just something keep an eye it's one week but i am monitoring like reed's usage near the line of scrimmage because he's becoming more of a heavier player near the line of scrimmage than where he was early in his career and that's what i mean by the shakir thing like i don't mean it like in a like a derogatory sense it's just i feel like the craft watson and golden are getting the stuff at the intermediate and vertical levels that were he was getting earlier in his career and i'm worried that like we might not have the juice yeah yeah that's in kind of how i was framing it before from like a season-long perspective like i still am fine having reed on my basketball teams would i prefer to have all those swapped out for golden like sure uh but i think he's gonna be fine there i think for manage it's gonna be a huge huge headache like i mean i guess when the bye weeks hit and if they're in a really good throwing spot good game environment but man like he is not gonna feel ever yeah and again like in the worksheet i acknowledge all this stuff like early on like especially like coverage data and scheme stuff because we only have a one week sample uh you know always grain of salt this stuff i mean the jets did play cover two at the second highest rate in the league the only team that played more was the vikings who the packers just played so you know if things are static we saw you know a guy like golden uh you know have the highest target share on the team and those cover two looks so like it would be a spot to like where it feels like oh am i point chasing this or am i chasing these like you know i don't know i don't know for one week targets but i if those things stay static you know it would point to him being kind of the target leader again any thoughts on the other kind of hot topic with the packers of course the uh the backfield situation you know marsh marshall lloyd like a decent like market share of the rush attempts just not successful whatsoever the offensive line looking poor do you think this is something they'll just kind of continue to abandon uh and and throw the ball a ton or do you think they'll try to establish it here i think they'll try to establish it here I think in game scripts where they're winning, still try because we saw this last year they were a terrible run blocking team the back half of last year uh both Emmanuel Wilson and Josh Jacobs were at the bottom of the league and yards created before contact by the offensive line I just think that's going to be a problem all year and it's going to get highlighted in matchups like last week against Brian Flores like you just have no shot so especially teams I think that are good against the run we're going to highlight immediately for the Packers to just be like extremely pass heavy like they were in week one here if they're up at some point and uh you know the the rain is cooking at some point they'll probably hand the ball off I just don't think they're going to do it successfully but they will have handoffs in those spots yeah 13 touches for 37 yards Chris Brooks had seven for 29 combined 20 for 66 3.3 yards per carry which I mean can this be one of the things where because like the fear right is that the offensive line is so bad that even Jordan Love doesn't have time but do you think there's a it sounds like you think there's a needle to be thread here where like the running game you just doesn't get going but Jordan Love has to throw so much that that's still actually fruitful for fantasy yeah 100 and even with the volatile and he had a 50 completion rate last week like he was uh hyper volatile because we've seen this this coaching tree especially like they can still design guys open and there was explosives to be had last week in a tough matchup uh where they had no running game yep um all right let's uh you had mentioned the other game and uh we're talking about before we do a little Lions bills at the end would be this Cowboys commanders game looking like one of the better setups on the week here, as far as a 50.5 total on the main slate, uh, Cowboys implied for 27.5 points. Uh, I was actually surprised commanders only down here implied for 23 points. Like that's between the Seahawks and the Panthers. I mean, what do we, what do we make of this commanders team? Are they, they're not the, uh, the old Jane Daniels, Terry McLaurin, you know, duo we used to be excited about. And we saw a lot of the first time play callers really struggle in week one, especially against good defensive coordinators, right? Like David Blau, what's going against Vic Fangio, like Vic Fangio has made a lot of seasoned play callers, uh, look pretty bad. Same thing with Steve Spagnuolo and Davis Webb on Monday night, uh, which was his answer. I would say the only two guys that I think were really impressive as first time play callers to me were Brian Flurry, uh, in week one, especially with Drew Locke coming in and just how he was able to scheme JSN open. Uh, uh, against, you know, the Christian Gonzalez in that game. And then obviously Declan Doyle, uh, and what he did having an immediate game plan for what Lou and Ruma like read him like a book, what he was going to do. Uh, and so like, like David Blau, a lot of questions here with what happened a week when it's not just going against Vic Fangio. And I would do want to give him the grace period. Cause he's a first time play caller, but we didn't see any of the things like we didn't see them trying the things we wanted to see, right? Like they were last in the league and pre-snap motion rate. They were 26. Play action, right? Like these are the easy buttons you want to have in your arsenal when you do face those tough matchups. Uh, so a little bit of a concern here, obviously what we saw from Dallas though, on Sunday night, it's like, how much did we really rectified the demons of last year? Because when Matt Nagy and Greg Roman are just absolutely slicing through you, uh, you know, it doesn't give us a good feeling that you really, you know, improved your defense greatly. Uh, we'll give that a little bit, like we have to allow both samples to flesh out, but that's kind of the angle here of like, if the commanders are going to struggle still to either the, the Cowboys defense can kind of alleviate some of those concerns. The game script can at least force them into a drop back rate. And like, you look at a guy for like Jaden Daniels from a fantasy stance, still 18 points in a really bad game. Like, you know, the floor is kind of always there for a player of this archetype, the running back situation for the Cowboys, pretty straightforward. It's all Javante, uh, basically nothing else really, really nice spot for him. But what about on the commanders? I thought that was kind of interesting. Um, you know, the bill usage relative to Rashad white, we even see Cateron Allen, what come in and get a carry inside the five. What do you think about that backfield? Yeah. And that's something that I want to see how they start this game because, uh, bill fumbled and that's, and they immediately pulled them. And that's when Cateron Allen came in and bill had four fumbles last year. It got him in the doghouse last year. And that's when we started to see a little bit more Chris Rodriguez. Uh, and it already looked, I was already bummed because it was a great, great play by the defense. The ball got forced out and they recovered the fumble, but they immediately pulled them after that play. And I was like, ah, man, like them being so reactive. Um, cause I forget who it was in week one, lost the fumble. It was Bucky Irving lost the fumble. And they immediately were like, yes, I was worried. I was like, oh, Bucky lost. I was like, are we going to see Kenneth Daniels next drive? And they went right back to Bucky. I was like, Ooh, Zach Robinson. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah. Uh, so, uh, cause the, the DeCorey Krosky merit usage was really intriguing. I think from his stance that just like, we didn't really so much of a, of a split. It was kind of him leading the backfield and then Rashad white, just playing kind of the empty calorie stuff, which you would like because the way the giants ran the football and the Cowboys in week one as well, we're never going to get like receptions. I think out of bill. And I don't think we're going to get a ton of receptions out of Rashad white anyways, cause it's just not Jaden Daniels his game, uh, as well. So I'm not necessarily concerned about the receptions. I just don't want him to be dog housed. Yes. Yeah. Just, just don't make mistakes and we should, we should be good here. I mean, I guess on, on the Dallas side, it was kind of a disappointing game for them. Pickens kind of disappeared. Uh, Eagles though had a lot of success throwing against this commander's defense. You think the Cowboys passing game bounces back here? Yeah, 100%. I think that's the way I want to play it. So hopefully we get some pushback from the commanders that drive this game state. The commanders I think are in a really tough spot in this particular matchup because they did have some success in week one and, but it was all just predicated on, on the blitz, right? They lived and died by the blitz in week one. They blitz at the eighth highest rate. They had the fourth highest pressure rate on blitzes. And when they blitz Jalen hurts, they had a ton of success. He was three of eight, 16 yards, but when they did not blitz, they were 28th in the league and pressure rate and Jalen hurts was allowed to have some comfort. He was 11 of 17 passing hit some of those explosives. Uh, you're kind of damned if you damned, if you don't hear against Dak Prescott, if you want to blitz Dak Prescott a lot over the past five years, he's number one in the NFL and completion rate. And if you want to sit back and play coverage against Dak Prescott with this defense, he's just going to slice you up. He's faced Dan Quinn three times. They've scored 30 or more points in all three games. I just feel like it's a tough spot for, with his personnel to, to, to have like a successful game plan because you can do some things against Jalen hurts that you can have successful, like you can't do against Dak Prescott. Yeah. So is that as far as maybe it sounds like it fire the cannons for, for the Cowboys passing game, Javante as well. It's just like they're, there's nobody here that you're probably, I guess, how deep are you getting floor noise? He in the conversation for DFS? Not really. When they've had lamb and pickings, like those two guys have been just under 60% of the team targets. Uh, we've even seen like, I like Jake Ferguson be completely impacted just if these two guys are on the field. I mean, he's under a yard per out run on these two guys play his target rate drops 8%. Um, he's basically a touch in touchdown or bust territory. I kind of referred to him. He's kind of like, uh, like the Hunter Henry, of this offense, right? Like he'll score some touchdowns. He's he's out there, but like, you're never just going to get like, you're never going to feel good. Like you're getting like a huge ceiling out of him. Right. Dak Prescott, his number I'm seeing on underdog 249 and a half passing yards. You see last time he played Washington at the end of last year, he went for over 300. It sounds like you'd maybe have a lean to the higher there. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, he's, he's definitely a guy that, uh, I want to play a lot of, uh, in DFS. Cause I think, I think the, the counter is going to be, uh, the leverages you're going to see Jaden Daniels, like be, be one of the more popular quarterbacks on the slate. Yeah. Um, as far as the game line and spread Cowboys minus three and a half at home, total 50.5, anything catch your eye there. I would be on the Cowboys here that, I mean, they always play so good at home. These games are typically high scoring home too. So if you do just want to play the over and play for the Bonanza, I like that too. You maybe, you can also do probably, uh, uh, a little tease here too. You know, take it all three. You can do like a half point Cowboy and lower the three and lower the total by three. And that's pretty good too. Uh, some of those small teases I like a lot. Um, but that I think there's going to be offense here and points put up at least by the Cowboys side. Yeah. And I'm, I'm not expecting you to have looked at every line, but as far as other, just like, it sounds like Dak passing yards would be something you're interested in any other, maybe specific spots that you think could be a good buying opportunity. Yeah. I think, uh, like a George Pickens, longest CD lamb, uh, receptions are always juice. So it's hard to get there, but I think there's a lot of pros that I have, uh, written up this game that for CD lamb, um, still think Pickens is going to be involved in opportunities to create plays. We saw the commanders when they did give up completions last week, they were all chunk gains. So, uh, I, I think we're going to see some of that too. I see Pickens longest reception at 19 and a half, uh, which sounds like a lot. Sounds pretty, pretty nice there. Um, sweet. Uh, let's, uh, we're going to go ahead and make, you know, Dallas here minus three and a half, a, uh, official whale play gold star lock. Don't add us. Uh, don't, you know, uh, if the receipts aren't there, uh, real quick, how, how did your, how did your week one DFS go? Did you, uh, did you survive at all? Yeah, I came out with more than I put in. That's always a, that's always the goal. Uh, I did play a lot of Colston, Loveland, but I also played a lot of Ashton JT. It was one of my like flag plants for week one. So having JT and then just being on the Panthers as well. Bryce Young and Jalen Coker were big plants for me, too. So having JT and then Bryce Young, Coker stuff, it was enough to get into the green. There you go. There you go. What kind of contests have you been enjoying to play? I feel like that's always something we're all trying to figure out at the beginning of the season. Yeah, me, I'm still in my kind of sweet zone. If you remember from our old Hoka days, I love playing, you know, single entry or three max. I'm usually looking for tournaments that are sub 5,000 entrants. And then DraftKings now runs more of these than FanDuel, where they run the shadows of like the $50 red zone. And like the first one is 4,800 entrants. But then they run two smaller contests, too. That's the same entry point where it's like 1,900 entrants. Then you'll have a sub 1,000 entry. Those are the ones I look for. I love those. Like if I can get like a $50 to $100 single entry sub 1,000 players, I like to play that. Those are like what I grab. But definitely I'm looking more of a single of the three max type of player. Awesome. Yeah, I'm excited to ramp up the volume this week. Took it a little easy last week. Glad I did because I did not get the pieces together in the right way. But let's talk about tonight's game. I mean, best game of the week from a total perspective. We get the Lions versus the Bills. What do you see in with this one? And do you agree a bunch of points are in our future? Yeah. I do. There's like a weird thing that, you know, two teams on a short week where both teams are on a short week. We haven't had this circumstance very often. So, you know, grain of salt. But 9-0 to the under when it's both teams on a short week at a Thursday. And obviously this is a high total, too. So, like, there are many fault points to this, too, eventually go under. I think the side, though, we want to hammer is the Bills side, whether it be team total, whether it be just them outright. But they're in the most advantageous spot for a few reasons. Obviously, even before we get to like the like what's going on in terms of like on the field stuff, they're just in a spot that's been like historically one of the best spots to ever bet in. And that is facing a team that is just coming off of an overtime game on the road. You know, you know, when you look at the teams in this spot in the 2000s are 17 and seven straight up in these spots. If these games are 48 points or total, the team that is the favorite is seven and oh, perfect seven and oh, and they're seven and oh to the cover, too, as well. So it's it's like one of those like old like Vegas lines of like betting a short divisional dog. Like, right. Like all those things like this has been a spot like definitely gets looked at. And then we've got the Lions now missing three starting offensive linemen in this game. And I know a little narrative streets in this. Dude, the Bills are open in this new stadium. Like this is the first game in this new state. That place is going to be. Probably pretty electric. I forgot the the new stadium narrative. I forgot about that one. Yeah. And like, I mean, the Lions, they didn't look that great either in week one. Do you think they're going to, you know, feel the new play caller changes there a bit as well? Yeah. We saw this last year. Remember week one? They were completely they were really bad. And granted, some of those problems lingered on. But then they scored 50 in week two. Granted, that was at home against the Bears. But. But again, like I said, like, we don't want to go too crazy in the weeds and some of the week one stuff that especially if it's good players that let us down. And like the Lions, I think, too, have too much collective talent to like outright fail, no matter who the coordinator is or like what the play calling is. So I do think they'll sort some of this stuff out. But they just are missing too many guys. And we talk about the offensive line injuries. They're still missing guys on the defense. They saw this big defensive rollover there. They're going to get Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph back eventually. But it wasn't just those guys being out. You know, that's the. At least of Terry and Arnold. It's losing Amik Robertson. It's losing Roy Lopez. It's losing Alex Anzalone. Like, they just had so much defensive turnover. And for a half, like, it was pretty good last week. Tyler Shuck was objectively terrible in the first half of that game last week. And in the second half, you saw because Kelvin Shepard, like, he just wants the blitz. He wants to play a lot of man coverage. I mean, if you're just going to play man coverage against Josh Allen, dude, you're going to give up so many explosives. Like, yeah. I mean, that's why I said, like, the bill side to me feels like the spot to hammer. Like, basically pick a player. I think we're going to see big gains for Kincaid, big gains for DJ Moore, Josh Allen's new game. They're going to get James Cook way more involved than they did last week, too. Like, the bills just feel like the side here that you want to be on. Yeah, and I think everyone is pretty sold on DJ Moore and Kincaid, at least after week one, and what that usage looks like. Is there any other trickle down into the Khalil Shakir? I don't even know who else it would be. Like, you know, a key on Colbert. Like, how deep can you get into this bills bag? Yeah, I mean, that's just, like, single entry stuff if you're trying to find, like, a low-hanging fruit prop. You know, Coleman and Palmer basically split time. It was Coleman 19 routes, 13 for Palmer. Palmer had the touchdown. But it's basically going to be Kincaid and DJ Moore. And we did get the passing stuff from James Cook that we wanted. It didn't really get, like, the full run out. I don't know. It was just Houston defense related. But Ty Johnson is trending to be inactive again. On the short week. And James Cook was. He ran a route on 50% of the dropbacks. I know he didn't have, like, the full run out. But he had four targets. So, I do think we'll get him involved in the pass game. Travis Echan. I'm still working on the pronunciation. It doesn't feel right still. It doesn't. But we're forcing it through. We saw him catch a bunch of passes in that game, too. And we saw the Saints tight ends catch a bunch of passes, too. So, I think Kincaid and DJ Moore and James Cook, we don't really get too cute with the ancillary guys. I think these are the three Buffaloes we want to ride. For sure. A few things in the chat here. Also, I'm going to do the last coffee giveaway here for the people. And in honor of Purple Yosh, it's his birthday today. He's a big Lions fan, Reeves. And he says, it's my birthday and we are getting fed to Josh on the stadium opener game. But who knows? Maybe he'll get the birthday surprise from the Lions here. We're going to use hashtag Yosh in the chat here. Put Yosh and the winner will get a free. Bag of Vasileros and Sons coffee. 12-ounce bag there. And we'll do this drawing here at the end of the show. A few more spots here that I want to discuss. You know, with the Lions, I mean, J-Mo had pretty good usage week one. Didn't necessarily get reflected in the box score. It was hilarious. I was looking at the usage for the wide receivers. And it's like, I don't know. Is there another team in the league that literally had three players wide receivers play snaps and only two who received a wide receiver? Like, you want to talk about a cardio king, Isaac Tesla? I mean, is this the most concentrated passing game in the league? Yeah. I mean, it's what we want. And J-Mo just played a bad game, man. Like, he dropped the best ball golf through downfield the whole game. I mean, he dropped. He even dropped the lateral. They were going to run an ender round. And he dropped it. Like, he's had a little bit of the yips. But I think you got to be bullish on the usage, though. Especially the type of usage he got. I had some notes in here, too. I know. You had him on the screen. But it was the types of the routes he was running. I think you got to feel really good about. I mean, 23% crossing route rate. It was 18% last year. 44% out route rate. Like, J-Mo is the dude you want running, like, those stops and hitches, right? Because you have to respect the speed. Like, those should be free completions with a guy like him. 44% out route rate, which was 10% last year. Like, those feel like the types of targets, routes that he runs, like, could be. Those types of, like, real smoothing. I know it wasn't week one. But, you know, give him a higher floor than he usually has. Because, like, those are the types of plays. Like, you figure with his speed, like, they should be open relatively more often than they're not. Yeah. And, I mean, we did the prop line we did earlier was J-Mo at three and a half receptions. And considering what his role was. I mean, you said wide receiver 43 and points scored. Wide receiver 11 and expected points based on opportunity. Like, seems like J-Mo should be a good bet to catch, you know, four plus balls here. Yeah. I would go right back to him in a lot of, through a lot of angles. I'll definitely be looking at a lot of his stuff. And when you look at last year, when the Detroit Lions had all those offensive line injuries. I mean, just look at the drop backs they had, like, in all these games. I mean, Goff threw the ball 30, over 30 times, I think, once through week seven last year. And then it was just like 37, 33, 37, 42, 34, 41, 54. Like, we're going to, I think this is one of those games. I think we're getting, like. Like, maybe a 50 drop back game from the Lions. So, like, any, like, thing that's, like, reception based or volume based, I think is probably pretty solid for a lot of their guys. Yeah. Let me see what some of these are as far as for Goff. Yeah. I agree with that, too, of, like, you don't necessarily want to play the efficiency in a tough road spot. But, you know, Goff's at 249 and a half passing yards, 23 and a half completions, 36 and a half pass attempts there. What did he end up with last week he had? Only 206 yards there. But it seems like maybe pass attempts could be interesting for him. Yeah. I think pass attempts and completions both sound really good. Like, when I was just running down all of those totals, you see the completions and the attempts, like, just, like, they're kind of lockstep. Because he's still going to have, like, Goff's never going to, like, really. He's not going to have many games where he's, like, in the 50s of completion rate. Because Amon Ra, Gibbs soak up so many, like, high success rate targets. It boosts the completion. So, yeah, completions attempts look real strong. Yeah. Yeah, and it looks like you're getting a slightly better multiplier on the passing attempt. 2.08 1.85 on the 23 and a half there for goth any other interesting names obviously there's heavy hitters here uh gibbs coming off of a monster game do you think this is a little bit tougher of a spot than at home versus the saints yeah i was really kind of surprised you know i do the show at crane and crane was the first one i saw pitch it last week where he was like oh you know gibbs is you know a smaller back they don't have good backups they play on thursday maybe they're going to ease him into week one and they gave him 34 touches like i don't want them to grind this guy into into dust either yeah you know early on although like you know we've seen guys like he's the archetype of like christian mccaffrey he can he could probably get through a season where he gets like four touches but uh we don't want to see him like get oh you know kind of worn down either especially with the offensive line because at the end of last year they really struggled to run with all the offensive line injuries i mean gibbs had two monster games and spots where we thought he would against the commanders and giants but outside of those games his rushing efficiency was like really poor uh the back half there with all those injuries so it's just something i'm keeping an eye on with the fact that you know obviously kade maze has already been out he's on ir but them losing you know mahogany and blake miller mahogany missed most of the game last week so it might not be a big deal but on the road uh on a short week uh just just feels like a spot where maybe there's like a little bit of letdown and when i say a little bit of letdown we're talking like he doesn't have 30 fantasy points right yeah and like his his rushing uh number is high i'm seeing 89 and a half um you know a scrimmage yard is 119 and a half but it does feel like a game where maybe he gets there receiving wise but like 90 is a pretty big number on the road here if they are in a trailing script yeah yeah and it never feels good to take a gibbs under but that would be one if you were to twist twist my arm well you almost want to play i always feel like the two and i think wasn't it a good idea to take a gibbs under but that would be one if you were to twist twist my arm well you almost want to play i always feel like the two and i think was it was it last year or two years ago where it was just like longest rush gibbs's longest rush wasn't it like he was clearing that like every other week or there was there was a span where us on the site we gave out jameer gibbs's longest rush i want to say 13 straight weeks and it hit 11 weeks there is a new guy if you guys want a little cheat code uh in that vein the new guy because eventually the books got religion and his longest rush would be like 17 18 and a half it was like 12 and a half to 13 and a half like for like 10 weeks in a row yeah the the other guy that's in that kind of mold was kind of he's not jameer gibbs like but is very efficient is blake quorum blake quorum is long blake quorum's longest rush has hit like 80 of the time like going back to last year uh we bet that again in week one and it got there he's just another guy in this because he's always like 11 and a half 12 and a half and he just keeps popping these hyper efficient runs okay that's a that's a good call i don't see the blake quorum longest rush up yet for their monday night so it might not be yeah and then to your point the gibbs one i'm seeing for tonight is 18 points but it's almost like you what you want to do with the gibbs one is you want to be able to slide that like ladder it up because when he does bust it it's probably like a 50 yarder it gets you those 20s but uh yeah it was like he used to be the bread and butter man so yeah i miss those days like it's every week just automatic that the 12 and a half 13 and a half yard gibbs long stretch for sure um so we do like we like the bill side here we like kind of playing the lions kind of attempts completions if you're really feeling spicy maybe a gibbs rushing lower any other angles uh in this game that you think are are notable here i mean we i mean some of the guys like are just such you know josh allen is is josh allen i mean is what else needs to be said there but any any spots we haven't discussed just i said like dj more longest reception i mean the the lions gave up six catches to wide receivers on throws 15 or more yards downfield in week one they they if if shuck actually had the arm strength i mean a lave would have had a uh he would have had two long touchdowns but he kind of had to wait for a couple balls in the air uh but they there was just guys naked in the second half of that game uh a valet had to make like a diving catcher one that he might have he might have had like a 60 yard touchdown yeah more longest reception i'm seeing at 23 and a half and then kincaids is at 21 and a half i mean both those guys had super high a dots one i mean alan was number one in depth the target that was another bet this offseason that i really wanted to place was uh on bills throwing more and throwing downfield more and i know uh the ship chasing crew would kill me for liking dj more but i like to dj more this year for that reason yes well uh that one is off to a great start there and it doesn't seem like it's going to slow down at all um yeah i mean when you're looking at kincaid's number is actually the same both of kincaid and actually no dj more is 59 and a half receiving baseline and then kincaid is is 49 and a half but um if they'll stay pretty concentrated in this spot like those should be pretty attainable numbers for those guys oh yeah especially like i said with the downfield passing kincaid is another guy like last year because the the play volume wasn't there for him he was another guy we were consistently doing um like his receiving long as well uh 20 and a half over the total where it was last year but like he was like every week good for like an 18 to 20 yard catch like every week yeah like just locked in so um and with the bills kind of you know emphasizing the uh proof of concept that they gave us because sometimes teams tell us something that they don't do it like the denver broncos denver broncos told us they were going to throw downfield more they didn't happen they didn't happen on monday we'll see if it happens uh there's a couple teams that told us like what they were going to do like uh the the eagles were like we're going to say his lowest route participation in like four years yes you mentioned the uh the james cook stuff there was a little bit of concern at least from week one tough matchup 13 for 57 receiving game 3 for 12 you did mention like that was one thing they had said all off season of like hey we want to get him going in the receiving game you have no ty johnson out um you think he can catch a few more balls tonight yeah i think so especially if the lions are going to stay like with that man coverage uh and they already kind of uh talked about there was already a report from one of the beats that said like he's been an emphasis in practice like they want to get him going too so yeah and they should have i think the game script for it as well um yeah i think like i said that the core bills i think are all going to be pretty relatively strong plays and i'm even seeing like you know cook not even a great receiving game last week three for 12 i still see his player receptions on underdog at 2.5 juice to the the higher like 2.08 x on that two and a half receptions that looks pretty good to me too absolutely and no tie johnson's still not expected to play i mean he hasn't practiced as a short week so yeah no tie john yeah that'll be an inactive to pay attention to you know for for showdown stuff for sure um let's see here be uh with our last few minutes if you guys in the chat have any specific spots we can we can let reaps provided he's uh he's had a chance to dig into these what do you what do you think about quinton johnson this week is what pronto joey wants to know here uh i'm into him if lad doesn't play uh he had a 36 percent target share when lad left the game the raiders were another team they they didn't give up a ton of uh completions to malik willis but when they did they were chunk gains they were and you know you know qj can always hit you for explosive i'll be going back to him in dfs if lad is out for sure yeah no i think that feels like a good bounce back spot there for them yeah and i feel like lad and zay dude that one that hurts like and now nico too it's just like it i swear like i guess we did get jordan mason hurt but it's like you know 90 percent and i said god of her no but 90 of the injuries are all to the top you know 50 wide receivers it's insane and everyone it was a point of emphasis obviously it's like hey the receivers can't run as bad on the injury front than they have the past two years and you know the preseason it's like these guys were high picks but you know jayden higgins ricky pierce all chris brazel were all out for the year uh we're one week in and the guys that we thought were going to be good like zay and lad there was a big contingency right of like yeah these dudes are gonna cook and they came out cooking and they got hurt it hurt dude and i i feel like you know the the biggest mush i i wrote up some bold predictions in the fantasy life newsletter and i was like the two rookie wide receivers who i think could be anything close to this year's book i'm like dejon stripling or jacoby lane both them just gone wiped off the face of the planet it's like we can't have any anything nice at the wide receiver position it's it's all just you know big run game big run game is is got an agenda for us they sure do they always personnel heavy personnel agenda uh this is a fun one parker washington or luther burden rest of season although i i feel like it's p wash right i would be on the washington side i had that i had him a little bit over burden coming in uh i like burden a lot but i thought maybe we were just a couple ticks too high i never got him like see he was just a like a couple ticks too high with that group i was always worried about the the touchdown equity for luther burden like yeah i i thought like week one was what we're gonna get a lot of games where he's five to seven catches and he's he's good in like ppr leagues has a real solid floor and then he will have spike weeks where he gets you the chunk gains but parker washington i think is the is gonna have more touchdowns than him for sure what um uh what do you what did you make of the the backfield split of like what you saw from tootin and chris rodriguez there. How are you feeling about that one going forward? i mean if it stays static you don't like it but i think that two in showed enough of a wider split that if he can just get rodriguez out of one of the two roles being goal line or long down a distance then the ceiling opens up a little bit uh you know he and jadarian price you like the fact that they had the touch difference than their other guys but like the the fact that they were boxed out of uh the bengrech the hvts right uh the high value touches yeah uh we need those we need those to unlock the ceiling but i thought tootin looked great in week one broke a ton of tackles uh 15 touches to six for c rod c rod just played in the situations where it was just enough to be a thorn like for fantasy yeah like you know um but they only got into the inside the 10 once and it was only one snap like they're like i don't want to run away and say oh chris rodriguez is guaranteed to be the goal linebacker right right like i don't think that we're i wanted to let this flesh out because they might have been viewing it as interchangeable like i don't know so let's let it breathe out but i think from a on-field performance perspective to and didn't do anything to make you feel worse about him if you liked him coming in yeah and i saw the film bros there i saw some cut-ups of them they were talking about how he's always falling forward at the end of his carries when he's getting tackled getting those couple extra yards and actually juxtaposing it uh the opposite of what travis h and uh typically does at the end of his so seems like he's going to be able to do that in the end of his career endeared himself to liam cohen do you think this is a good matchup based on what kenneth walker did to them or was that just kenneth walker being awesome yeah i mean i don't know well i mean denver law i mean they don't have john franklin myers and obviously jonathan cooper is we don't know if we'll see him you know until his situation is resolved those are two pretty big key defenders for the broncos so i'm at least gonna stick a pin in it but also kenneth walker got all of his yards after contact like the broncos actually were second in the nfl in uh yards allowed before contact in week one to running back rushes that's crazy so uh you know just something to see if in tune can create after the context he's like that type of guy but i'm at least uh wanting to say like denver probably like there's a couple defensive spots where i'm like i know this defense is gonna be better than this big picture i would assume the broncos is one the texans definitely being one uh absolutely i'm saying these defenses are better than what they showed a week one yeah um real quick here i'm gonna spin for this coffee giveaway while i do that rich maybe any other as we go out if there's one last uh lean you have on a game or a spot you like you can share that um but good luck for our final coffee giveaway we'll continue to do these on the monday and thursday streams aka our morning streams here oh gosh my guy chad mashki l underscore e underscore d congratulations email me at contact at peter over zet dot com super excited to see you next we'll have cups my quant going through some usage stuff at the top of the show we will have brick 75 joining me for lulls and of course the new show in the weeds with reeves looking at matchups making some bets and all of that good stuff but any any final ones here you that you're just sitting on that you can't imagine leaving this show without touting um i i mean just things that i thought were just when i was doing the worksheet things i thought were really like intriguing or or things that i thought were really like intriguing or or things that i thought were really like things that i thought stood out and this is a popular player so it's not like i'm unveiling anything but i i thought that dare the way derrick henry was used when i like went under the hood and saw how he was used was was actually really awesome especially for this particular matchup especially we don't have zay flowers and we know we're not having jrb lane but a lot was talked about the under center stuff that they did for lamar jackson but what it it changed uh for derrick henry i think could be pretty crazy because like father time apparently he's never coming for this unbelievable man but he he only had 25 of his runs out of that shotgun pistol which he was forced to kind of live in with lamar those couple years under todd monken but uh 63 of his runs in week one were outside zone and when you think about like derrick henry being able to like pick his spot and ramp up uh definitely pretty scary he had 106 yards and all three touchdowns on outside zone runs uh in week one and against jameer gibbs in week one on outside zone the saints allowed 6.3 yards per carry uh so i think that's pretty crazy i think that's pretty crazy i think that's pretty cool big dog big dog has the setup i think is a home home favorite of the stuff you know that's like does not like a revelation but i thought the way the way he was used and the way the types of runs he gets that would have been a career high in outside zones if this sticks his career high and outside zone runs is 48 like if this sticks like that's a significant change um for him yeah and he uh didn't he uh he had some decent uh receiving game usage as well too right he caught the one the screen yeah you know we always thought it was better yeah we always talk about you know giving him a screen a quarter should it be like if i was if i was a game call a a game play caller i would give him a screen a quarter like i would want at least one quarter let him get that head of steam because he always gets like 20 yards every time like it's crazy yeah it's like imagine uh if you gave darnell washington uh a screen once a quarter well you can just do it the reason we can't do that is because humans die when darnell washington touches the football like the league sent out a memo and they're like you're not allowed to give him the football because he is throwing dudes into the center of the earth i hope scott hansen has a like a sticky note on his desk that is like quite literally anytime darnell washington touches the ball he needs to put that on our screen for us uh i don't know you know kyle brant does like the angry runs and like darnell washington is like anytime he touches the ball yeah it's so fun so fun uh well speaking of fun reeves so excited to have this weekly show everybody should check out the worksheet over on our website and we'll see you next time on the show sharp football analysis sharp football analysis.com and the promo we mentioned it's is it code 35 show uh show 35 show 35 sorry i got dyslexic there for a second show 35 and that will get you uh a discount on the entire sharp football uh premium package is that what it is yeah yeah yeah and then i'll work on doing some stuff that'll be show specific because i know people always ask like how can i just get the worksheet how can i just read the worksheet stuff uh we'll do that in a minute and we'll do that in a minute and we'll do that in a minute and we'll do that in a minute you know how the game is played yes for sure and uh i now see all of the games through the end of the main slate are now live up on the site uh can't wait to do this weekly and if you guys have suggestions for how you would like the uh you know for us to do the show i'm always all ears i thought this was pretty good bouncing around um trying to find some spots you find interesting obviously hitting on thursday night football is always fun recording that but i think we got a good groove here appreciate everybody hanging out like you did and i'll see you next time on the show like i said this show in this streaming block will be every thursday as far as rest of week schedule tomorrow we got the big dfs block so we'll have jam to win we'll have you to cow we'll have mike leone we'll have the badge bros that was a fun one last week and then i will have after dark on saturday night i'm gonna have sam brought from establish the run joining me to talk some sims talk some ball that will be a good one very sharp dfs player over there at etr uh sunday we'll have the cram of course for youtube members and on saturday night we'll have the the ship cast at 1 p.m eastern and then my only other note here uh last week we had the fan duel free roll for everyone um going forward these are going to be perks just for youtube members so if you're a member on the channel go to the membership tab the posts on my youtube and you will see a link to it there i'm also going to put it in the discord channels that are private um but yeah anyone who's a youtube member gets an access to that it's a super sweet value add i believe it's a 2500 guaranteed prize pool we got 500 to first this week completely free perk with your membership and because it is just gated to members it will be uh smaller and a little bit more exclusive uh down in that reed size tournament to help you realize your equity uh thanks again to cups to brick to reeds we will see you guys next time on macro thursdays peace