Updated CFP Predictions + Week 8 Predictions & Bad QB Play

I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcasts. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I could talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Let's go, I've got it! There are thousands of podcasts that can tell you how to better yourself. Get worse with Kyle Proo is not one of those podcasts. So if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptide, setting boundaries, taking supplements, making your better, getting closer, then I would humbly recommend other podcasts. If you're interested in blackmail, love, bomb, and cloning yourself are getting revenge, then we've got a little something-something for a dastardly individual like you. Listen to get worse with Kyle Proo on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Meet the disruptors who are setting today's trends and discover those who are building what's next. People like Sebastian Yatra. Life is on the other side of fear. Introducing Global Flow with me. Dramas, a new podcast where I sit down with disruptors across music, entertainment, business, and tech. To break down what they're building, get the blueprints of how they got there, all while trying to figure out what's coming next. Listen to Global Flow on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On Big Lives, we take a single cultural icon. People like Jane Fonda, George Michael, Little Richard. And we pull apart the story behind the image, discovering forgotten interviews that change exactly how we see these giants of our culture. We're here for the messy, the brilliant, the human version of our heroes. Bobby Mantel-Jo Chi, @KaiRite, and this is Big Lives. Listen to Big Lives on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Did someone in the live chat say they're checking in from the can of Zins and Dan Landings pocket? Is that something they got said? Well, I take the live chat at his word. We're jam-packed. It's Tuesday night, October 20th, the year of our Lord, 2026. High atop a very, very sun-baked downtown Nashville, Tennessee, although it's dark now. And it's going to get a whole lot darker, a whole lot quicker. But you know what, we don't need to look ahead to daylight changing. We need to look ahead to week eight predictions. There are a lot of big games this week. We've got the JP poll that is out, and I am going to try as best I can to explain why Notre Dame is still ahead of Brigham Young, even though they are not in the Commissioner's poll, which will debut Thursday. You notice the quarterback picture in the country is an abject disaster right now. If you were to look at a list, let's say in August, of the quarterback landscape in college football. Man, it looks so bountiful and fruitful. And now there's some spoiled fruit around here, Jesse. But there are also some quarterbacks that have come out of nowhere. I got some theories as to why all that, plus I'm about to lead the show probably regrettably. So with my updated playoff predictions and believe it or not, somehow seven weeks into the year, it's harder to predict the playoffs than it was in August. And I don't know how that's possible. But frankly, I don't know how any of this is possible around here these days. And that's why we love it. They're watching us in Prestonburg, Kentucky, Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, Phoenix, Arizona, Spartanburg, South Carolina, show them the live sub count, Bradley. We're at nearly 590,000 subs, which means we're just a little over 10k away from 600,000. And we still don't know what ceremonial ritual bit of celebration that producer Jesse is going to traffic in once we hit 600k. You stare at me blankly like you haven't agreed to do this. I'll keep staring, Jesse. I don't care. We don't have a hard out. I'll just keep staring. Yeah, I'm pretty sure producer Jesse doesn't want to let everyone down. I'm sure that he will do something other than just go to his golf simulator during the day. Like, no one cares about that. Do something for the people. Be selfless for a change. Again, he stares blankly. Anyway, I appreciate you guys. If you have not already subbed to the channel, please do so. And like the video while you're at it, I always doubt when people say they're checking in from North Korea. They may be. I just don't know that they're at liberty to tell me if they're checking in from North Korea, but be that as it may. Someone said, I should shave my head. It sits under K. That's my social contract to the live chat. I'll shave my head. What are you going to do, Jesse? What are you going to do? Don't need an answer right now. Let's dive into the show. Playoff predictions in July and August. They were difficult. I would say playoff predictions the third week of October. It feels even more difficult right now because there's so much stuff up in the air. So I thought we should come on air tonight and then update the playoff predictions. But then when I dove into it, I said, I don't know if I want to do this, but I had already put up the show link. So I can't change my mind now. So our old bracket, my old bracket right before the season started. Jesse, we were looking at it earlier today. It's not terrible. I don't think Oregon's going to play for the national championship or anything. But most of these teams are still alive outside of Oklahoma. I had Oklahoma as the 11 seed. Don't feel great about that right now. Don't feel great about that entire matchup down there in what I'm going to call the southeastern quadrant of the bracket. That's what I'm going to call it. So yeah, Oklahoma, Oregon don't feel great about, but Texas Tech still feel great. Texas. We'll see this weekend. But Ohio State, there is big breaking news out of Ohio State. I'm going to talk about that with quarterback situation in just a second, Julian saying maybe done for the year. And that is what I expected to hear. That was kind of the vibe coming out of their late Saturday night. So more on that in a second. But Georgia, I had Miami win in the national title. I still feel fine about that. I had Notre Dame facing Miami in a semi-final. I feel okay about that. Indiana feel good about Boise feel good about Bama Southern cowl. Interesting. Both could make it, neither could make it. So that's where my bracket was. If you're listening on podcast, you can go to the YouTube part of this show and you can see that physically. Here's my updated thinking. And I'm going to have press show you the rankings. Well, press made the graphics. So I'm going to pretend like he's showing it to you right now, even though Bradley's got to press the button. This is extremely hard to parse out right now. I challenge anyone who is going to try and poo poo my prediction, make your own and then check back in in about a month and a half. My one through 12. If I had to call this right now and apparently I do, here's how I would see it. Brigham Young's undefeated right now. They just got by the Notre Dame game. I think they're going to go wire to wire. And if they do, I need you guys to prepare yourselves and talk to your children about BYU is the one seed in the playoff because that's what would happen. I went and watched Indiana in person Saturday. I've seen them in person the last two Saturdays actually. They just lost this last weekend at home. So it may come as a shock to you to hear I am going to pick Indiana to win the big 10 and not lose another game. And if they do that, I think they're going to lock down the two seed. I just feel like there's a little bit more offensively there that they can squeeze out and they don't need to have a whole lot more because that defense is pretty good. I would go with Georgia to win the SEC right now. I think them is the three seed. It may mean they don't lose another game or maybe they do lose one more game, but still the SEC champ just gets boosted that high. I got Miami winning the ACC as the four seed. Maybe that means they lose to Notre Dame in the process, but still as an ACC conference champ, they get the four seed. I would put Ole Miss right now in Atlanta playing Georgia, therefore locking down the five seed. Notre Dame, if they go 11 and one, that means they beat Miami. I'd give them the sixth seed. I think at this point, a 10 and 2 Alabama that misses out on Atlanta because of tie breakers and stuff like that, which frankly, I still don't know how that would work out between Ole Miss and Alabama, but just follow me. Bama at seven. I think when they get healthy, they'll be okay. And if they can get through A&M this week, they go to the buy, get the center back, maybe eventually Ryan Williams, maybe eventually Xavier Brown, Terrence Green, like they beat the death right now. But if they get those guys back, I feel okay about a stretch run out of them. This is where it gets interesting. So Texas Tech, I've got it eight. Like the big 12 could be a nightmare scenario for the rest of college football. So that would be Texas Tech bringing me on in the big 12 title game. UCLA is going to ruin the dreams of a lot of teams out there. If they just keep winning, right now, if you just start projecting this out, they keep winning these games. They don't really have these high hurdles left on their schedule. To the point where Jesse, we were looking at it earlier, UCLA could end up losing to USC and still go into the big 10 title game where I would have them losing to Indiana. But still, if UCLA is like a one loss team, playing for a conference title, and then they lose that. Yeah, they would have a two game losing streak, but they're not going to miss out on the playoff at that point, I don't think. So I would have them as the nine seed. And then at the 10 spot, because I had USC in the playoffs in the preseason, despite the fact that I publicly resigned on Lincoln Riley, I am not resigning on USC. I know it's hard to separate the two, but I'm going to try right now. I am putting USC on probation, as far as this show is concerned, and I have my eye on you, but I'm going to keep you SC in the playoffs, especially as it relates to the news we are getting about Ohio State and Julian say and be in out for a while, USC gets them in LA, USC's got a challenging schedule, but maybe just maybe, speaking of maybe, maybe Kentucky will make the playoff. I've got them in right now. I got Will Stein and Kentucky in the 11 spot. And then I got Boise as the G6. That could be, who do we think Jesse, that could be New Mexico, that could be Boise, Oregon State, Jamarcus Shepard, J.M.U., President even raises hand. He's so passive on this, you're trying to wait and see if they get past AppState, correct? Like you're nervous about the Thursday night game, but if J.M.U. gets past them, then Billy may do it. So yeah, we got the G6 as the 12C there. Here's what that bracket will look like right now. Again, I know it looks like really, really dry ink. This is all in pencil right now. Look at the draw that Brigham Young gets in this scenario. As the one seed, they play the winner of Texas Tech UCLA, and then you got Miami awaiting the winner of Boise going to Ole Miss, which by the way, folks from Idaho getting a visit Mississippi in December, who's to the funk it? Like what more could you ask for? In my first round of predictions, I had USC going to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama. In my updated predictions, I still got USC going to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama. And Will Stein gets to take the troops north into South Bend, Indiana. You talk about a house money vibe with Kentucky going in there. So here's how I would have that shaken out right now. I would take Texas Tech over UCLA, I would take Ole Miss over Boise, I take Notre Dame over Kentucky, Bama advances over Southern Cal, and that gives us a big 12 title game rematch in the quarter finals of Brigham Young against Texas Tech. That would give us Miami Ole Miss, that's a rematch from last year. That would give us Alabama, Indiana, that's a rematch from last year. Georgia Notre Dame is a rematch from two years ago. So give me Georgia, maybe surprisingly, advancing to the semis to face Indiana, and give me Brigham Young and Miami in the semis. And then I'm going to keep Miami going to the finals as my national champ. And I am going to put a rematch of last year's national championship game on the graphic, at least as of tonight, Indiana falls to Miami in the national championship game. So this obviously I could do this every week. Like that's just kind of a snapshot of where my mind is at right now. The Ohio State Quarterback situation is paramount. It is a grave concern right now. So Saturday night, I started to hear from some people in and around Ohio State. They thought Julian Saiyan may be done for the year. As of like less than an hour ago, on three reported Ohio State Quarterback Julian Saiyan is out indefinitely with an elbow injury, well actually Ryan Day announced it. Then on three said the buckais are putting together a plan as if he will be out for the remainder of the season. So obviously they're going into a by week right now. They've got one loss already. I think Ohio State loses two more games if they don't have Julian Saiyan. And therefore I think they miss the playoff if they don't have Julian Saiyan. That's my best guess right now. Secondly, the SEC is a total mess already and the SEC is only going to get messier. They could get as few as two teams in. They could get as many as five teams in. You just got to think like Florida is still mathematically alive. Okay, Texas obviously is very much alive. LSU is very much alive. Missouri is still alive. On top of Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, like there's so many teams in play. Now obviously a lot of them have to play each other. So you got to wonder are a few of them going to elevate or is it just going to be total bumper cars the rest of the way? Total demolition derby, the rest of the way. And then the third thing is I think people are still struggling to grasp the idea that Kentucky could make the playoff or that Iowa could make the playoff. I didn't put Iowa in my bracket. Iowa could very easily make the playoff right now. UCLA, I've got in the playoff right now. Northwestern has an outside shot. The question becomes the same question I have every year. These teams that are in rarefied air once they get to November. November for a new contender, it feels like three months in one month. That's how long that month feels. And so like Kentucky, do they have enough gas to get through November? Northwestern or UCLA, Iowa, because here's what will happen. You'll look at the schedule and you'll say, "Oh man, they could win all these games. They'll be favorite in all these games." Yeah, but they've never played with those kind of stakes before. Some of them can handle it, some of them can't. Here are the Doomsday scenarios as I see them right now. Doomsday scenario number one, big 12 tier one separation. This is Brandon Walker's Nightmare. This is the world where Brigham Young, Texas Tech, Houston, and Utah all end up either 12 and 0 or 11 and one and that absolutely can happen. What do you do? Because here's what would happen. What would happen is you would end up in all likelihood having an 11 and one Houston being compared head to head with a 9 and 3 LSU or a 9 and 3 Alabama or something like that. Then the rubber is going to meet the road on that whole conversation that Steve Sarkiesian started back in the spring, which is, boy, what a candidate to have said that in retrospect. R2s could go undefeated against Texas Tech Schedule. He was saying that high a kind of hyperbolicly, even though I thought he meant it, but the point was there's such a gulf and strength of schedule. Then the SEC was really upset that the playoff committee didn't necessarily see it that way in the spring. Well, as fate would have it, I'm almost certain that we're going to end up having a three-loss SEC team compared to a one loss from some other conference because it's just got to play out that way. Then the other Doomsday scenario is what I call the ACC Poison Pill scenario. I'm pretty sure Miami is going to play for the conference title. I'm pretty sure Miami is going to win the conference title, but I don't know that for sure cause they never have. What if Wake Forest and Jake Dickert continue to roll or what if Retlashley and SMU continue to roll and they just sneak into Charlotte as you do in December in Charlotte and they beat Miami because Miami is facing very little pressure that day and they, on the other hand, know it is when or go home on their end and they just beat him. What if both of those things happen? What if the Big 12 Tier 1 separation scenario happens and you got four qualified Big 12 teams, then all of a sudden you got to put two ACC teams in the playoff. We're not in the 2014 area yet. Somewhere out there, someone is listening to me right now saying, "Oh man, he doesn't realize it," but Josh is making the case for a 2014 playoff. No, I'm not every single one of these fools would be deserved to be left out. It's not a problem when capable teams are left out. That means you had high enough stakes on the regular season. I'm not going down that road. This is not a 2014 playoff segment tonight. Anyway, that's where I am right now. I don't feel great about it. I don't think I'll feel great the week before conference championship Saturday making predictions cause I just feel like the field is more fluid than I've ever seen it before. I appreciate you guys being tuned in live, especially. I've got a lot of good viewership over here right now. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel if you're in here. That's all. That's it. Week 7. It's going to be a big week. Are we in week 8 or week 7, Jesse? They're running together in my head. Anyway, this weekend, we are headed to Columbia, South Carolina. I am taking Jesse and Prez to South Carolina for Cocktober for your first time in your life. Does have you even been to South Carolina? Yes, but not during Cocktober. Yeah, okay. Got you. Jesse? Yes or no? You ever been there? You have? Cocktober? No. Okay. The shirts are available at paidstatematerial.com. Those look good. Those are like Virginia Tech level good. Those look really, really sharp. And I think all our shirts look good, but those especially look good. So remember, that's one week only. Like I didn't think we were going to be able to take the tour to South Carolina this year. That would have it and a blowout win over Florida would have it. We can. And so the don't tread on Saturday, South Carolina theme shirt is available. Jesse, I'm telling you, I'm feeling that our Friday show there could be an all-timer. I'm going to talk about it later. Actually, I'm going to talk about it momentarily, but anyway, the shirts are available at paidstatematerial.com. As for game predictions, as we roll on tonight. Tennessee, South Carolina, this Saturday, 330 Eastern kickoff on ESPN. Do you know Dusty DeVorchex going to be there? It's the first game that we've been in the building with Dusty for this year, looking forward to that. This game's presented by Jimmy Johns. You can go grab a barbecue brisket sub right on your way to the game. You can get it on the Jimmy Johns app, Jimmy Johns.com. You can do all of these things. But the don't tread on Saturday tour will be on the sidelines in Williams, Bryce Stadium. The day before this Friday, busing and paid on campus, live on ESPN from two to three Eastern. As JPhovy is my witness, you can tell you can feel the ground swell. I've felt it all week. I think we're going to have a massive crowd. I think we're going to have a game-changing crowd at South Carolina this Friday. Temperatures are going to be in the low 70s. all the wall sunshine, way different than what we felt in Indiana last week. And we're either gonna have a big crowd there or JP Hovey will have failed and lied to us all. So I don't wanna put pressure on anyone here, but I mean, this is essentially one of the biggest days of JP's life. And we'll see how it works out. We'll see how it works out. We're gonna be at the horseshoe by the way. You know where that is on campus. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of SCAM Goddess Podcast. The True Crime Comedy Podcast, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Deppery, Lamon Morris, and Nicole Byer. Ooh, I scammed them. - What? - I could talk to you for an hour. - You're a generational yapper, like me. - And the scams run the gamut. I'm talking about scams from the 1800s. All the way up to today. I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers. Call your grandparents, tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please. If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you. And I'm also here to laugh with you. So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to SCAM Goddess on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. - SCAM Goddess! - There are thousands of podcasts that can tell you how to better yourself. But if you're interested in blackmail, love bombing, cloning yourself, or getting revenge, then we've got a little something, something for a dastardly individual like you. Take a listen to some of the incredible advice we've given so far. Fake a back injury, get the spray tan, up your alcohol consumption. Only women should be allowed to have guns. - Kill 'em. - Kill 'em. - Kill 'em with a gun. - Listen, it's already over. I'm all about lying if it's something that really happened. - The next time a bear is running at you, you just calmly stop what you're doing, you look the bear in the eye, and you say this isn't you. - Do not preserve relationships, you don't need them. You only need one thing, and that's the GetWorks podcast. - Listen to GetWorks with Kyle Pru on the IHR Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. - Hey everybody, it's me, Debbie C'monville. This season of my podcast, who's with me, I speak with two-time Emmy winner and weirdly one of my best friends, Kevin Avery. - Everything up to that point, Bill G. was a comic. Us going on the road, doing battle, mountain, and e-lead. - Yeah, you took me, you were one of the first people who took me on the road, which is funny 'cause at the time, I was like, "I don't know if I like this guy." 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And I'm here with Timmy Tillman, L.A.F.C. star, grew up in the academies of Germany and now under the bright lights of Major League Soccer. - So, we know a little something about kicking balls. Maybe you're new to the game, or you're ready to take your passion to the next level. - Each week we'll tackle things like, who's winning the Premier League this year? - Playing like a number 10, do you know what that means? - Then we go over to France. - Leon. - Liga. - Leon. - Liga. - You know what's more, it is better to win. - What do you think is harder? Scoring a penalty kick or scoring a field goal? - He's a NFL and I'm like, just a big fat guy. - I do, I know that's crazy. - Join us each week for a quick chat with your soccer-loving bros about the best sport in the world. - Soccer, just don't tell my coaches I said that. Listen to big kick energy on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. - Schedule dynamic screwdriver job of the year here for this game. If I ran the SEC, I'll be firing someone for the position that they're putting Tennessee in right here. Now, I'm not expecting Shane Beamer to apologize for this or anything like that. I'm just saying, understand what you're looking at from a schedule of dynamic standpoint. You remember when Auburn went to Georgia last week and there was that big upset and you were like, "How did this happen?" Why tell you how it happened? Georgia was coming off the Alabama game, playing their seventh consecutive week while Auburn was off a buy. Now I want you to imagine Tennessee playing their eighth game in a row, coming off the Alabama game, and they got to go on the road to face a rested South Carolina dot, dot, dot in Cottober. Some are saying the odds are insurmountable and yet Tennessee opened as a favorite but the number has already crossed zero and South Carolina is currently a two and a half point favorite. So the home team in this matchup is one five of the last six for whatever that's worth to you. I listen to all that if I'm a Tennessee fan and I say, "Who cares?" We got the stuff that travels. We got a ground game. Maybe we got the best defense in the country. We don't have to wait two or three years for Jim Knowles and his system to take root here. It's done it in year one. They're running it at five yards per carry. Bishop has broken 36 tackles. That's good for seventh in the country. He's got 21 runs of 10 plus yards. That's good for fourth in the country and 583 of his 837 rushing yards have come after contacts or contact. Great job by our friends over at Volquest digging those numbers out of the pile cause it really puts in proper context the point that the hypothetical Tennessee fan here is making. Hey, we're not running a circus act of an offense. This stuff's dependable. Here's the fun part, especially for this game. South Carolina's top 25 in rush yards per game allowed defensively. They're 22nd in runs of 10 plus yards allowed and they got two weeks to gear up for this. Now caveat to that is Alabama's run defense numbers were okay last week too. Last two weeks it didn't matter cause the last two weeks just what do you say Jesse earlier? Bigger stone, beat smaller stone. Kind of kind of one of those vibes. It's not like they've played a hundred games. Some of these stat profiles are warped and then your run game adds proper context to it. It's gonna be really fun to watch. And then the follow up is at quarterback what does George McIntyre bring here? Cause frankly, he played a solid game when it comes to what they asked him to do against Alabama but they also played with the lead the entire game. In this game, South Carolina's past these in the 100s might Matthew's Braille and Staley like those guys are really, really good players. The bigger thing to watch here is not, do they just sustainably move it up and down the field? I don't think that's what hypo and that offensive staff will ask them to do but they're gonna take a handful of deep shots and it just comes down to really whether they connect on them and then also Tennessee last week. Here's part two to that, Tennessee last week. You remember early in the game, they got in plus territory several times. Then they had to settle for field goals. It was fine. It worked against Alabama because they shut Alabama down. And if they shut South Carolina down, they can kick the ball and win this game too. Does it play out that way? Or do they get down there? And even though South Carolina's red zone defense in like they're touched down percentage allowed, I didn't write the number down to see. 111, 112. So South Carolina's in the 100s in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. You should be able to bang it in there. I can't believe I didn't write the number down. There's, look, there's just a blank where it's supposed to be. What a dereliction of duty. This is how the live chat knows we're live. I never would allow this to roll if we were pre-recorded. Really, I would have. We're too lazy to cut it out. I just wonder, like if that's kind of baked in to this kind of game, like just Tennessee get down there a lot but they can't put you in. Lenora Sellers versus Jim Knowles is really fun here too. Unlike last week, where you really, really threw Keelan Russell for a loop, Lenora Sellers is not a green quarterback. He's not a young quarterback. So he's seen a lot. You don't have the kneeling effect at your back. So you don't have home field plus Jim Knowles against a young quarterback. You've got you on the road. So you're all you got against a veteran QB. South Carolina has to do way more to establish the run early though. The Alabama did last week, but also just, that's what they got to do, period. 'Cause we saw Sellers against Florida. I mean, I thought he played his best game of the year. Best game he's played in quite a while. It's a huge competitive character moment for South Carolina too. 'Cause they lost games early. It looked like they had been left for dead. And then they go to Florida. And man, they just brand new team. And then they go into the by-week. And now they got the whole world at their fingertips. And you got a lot of national attention on this game. And you're rested and you're getting Tennessee. [BLANK_AUDIO] Everything set up for you to make a little second half run here, except that you're the one who has to pull the lever. It's going to be a fun game. Let's take a look at what FanDuel thinks. They've got South Carolina minus two and a half. That is not what that number opened at. That's what it's at right now. We were kind of somewhere in between. The model just had it as a pick 'em. So the number opened and then the model was looking over here. And then the number went all the way to South Carolina minus two and a half and then the model was looking over there like this. I just have still found it in myself to believe in South Carolina in October. And also I think that team was playing well beneath the sum of its parts early in the year. And I think it may be playing up to the sum of its parts now. A lot of that's hunch-based because we've got one game sample size to prove that. But I hate the spot for Tennessee. I love the spot for South Carolina. It's going to be a really, really physical game. And I trust South Carolina to show up here. I trust Tennessee to show up too. I'm not counting on a no-show from Tennessee. I think South Carolina will win. I'll take him to win and cover that short number. They're watching us in Urika, Montana. That sounds so beautiful. They're watching us in Brooksville, Florida. They're watching us in Charlotte, North Carolina. You know, if this show was pre-recorded Dobes and Drums, '69, how in the world would I know you just said that? Pause for Chapstick. Oh, were you next to me the other day at Indiana when a guy walked up and offered me Chapstick and said, "Can't be having butthole lips? Do you hear him say that?" You got to be a hardcore viewer of this show to know that level of inside terminology. That is, whatever is above and beyond a P1 viewer, that's what that kid was. I did not take the Chapstick. Will Compton took my Chapstick the other day? Shared it right there on the sideline at Nebraska. A little to see, no. Texas at Alabama saturday 330 Eastern kickoff on ABC, Fandall Game of the Week. Fandall's live, by the way, in Texas and Alabama, just in case you didn't know. This is what we would call a no-feel game. Because you're looking at the bottom of the screen here in Alabama's favorite by 14 and a half points. Yet you just watched Alabama get completely neutered on the road against Tennessee, so your default is probably like, "I wouldn't lay 14 and a half points against air right now. I'm terrified to bet on Alabama." But then your mind needs to think back just a little bit further. The last two times A&M went on the road in conference play and they got dunked on by LSU and they got dunked on by Missouri. So, Bama's off back-to-back losses for the first time since '07. They've won 89 straight at home versus unranked opponents, blah, blah, blah. Only thing I care about is Marcel Reed. You know how rarely I say that word, or those combinations of words, Jesse. I care about Marcel Reed here because if he's not going to do more than he's done, it really doesn't matter how bad Bama looked last week, they'll just get right and then they'll go into the by-week. So, Marcel Reed is under 200 yards passing in five of his last six games. If their passing game is not a threat here, it'll be boring to watch, but they'll get put away just like they did in this game you're looking at, just like they did against Missouri. He has thrown multiple interceptions a whole lot, Bama's secondary, Bama's defense in general has been excellent at forcing takeaways. They have to find success rushing the ball and the problem is they haven't. This stat is crazy. This is like a paper popper stat. A&M does not have 100 yard rusher versus a P4 defense in their past eight games. That's not even just an A&M problem. We're going to talk later in the show about how that's just all over college football. So, I mean, look, it's not a padlock stat, but it's a padlock piece of knowledge. If you could just tell me A&M's going to run the ball decently here, Marcel's going to throw the ball decently. Well, that doesn't mean they're going to win, but then they're in the game. Okay, because Alabama's crawling into this game. So, if they can do that stuff, they're in the game. Alabama's got to find it offensively. Now, here's the difference. We're watching Texas this year. Texas has not shown an electric offense at any point this year. Alabama has. So, you're looking for them to get it back. They're really banged up. They're missing their center. They're best wide receiver. Crowell may not play in this game. I don't even know what his status is. So, yeah, they're banged up, dude, but they have scored in bunches at one point this year. They didn't lean on the run last week. I know it's far more complicated than that, but they didn't, and it cost them, and it feels like they asked Russell to do too much last week, and there's no need to ask him to do too much here. A&M's got the 71st ranked run defense in the country. Their 10th in pass yards per game allowed. So, like, I think a blind man can see what needs to be done here. Also, if you're Bama and you're banged up, don't you want to shorten this thing as much as possible immunity, unless they get out to an early lead, don't you want to compact this game as much as possible, so everything just screams "run the ball", and if you're forced upon a few times, so be it upon a few times, it's shocking, though. If you have any success there, what that may do to unlock that downfield explosive passing game, 'cause they did not have a single explosive play last week, and that's a far cry from what they had looked like just a few weeks prior. I'm also interested to see if this game ends up hinging on third down, 'cause Alabama's coming off their worst third down game of the season, and A&M, for all of their spotty performance so far this year, they are number 11 in the country, and third down defense allowed. Man, it's a weird year, in the SEC right now, 'cause it's a one by week year, and it's the first year they've gone to nine league games, you're looking all over the place, and you're looking at these teams that are sucking wind. Georgia looked like that last week against Auburn. I don't know what Tennessee will look like this week against South Carolina, but I've seen so many examples of that, and this could be that as well, like Alabama feels like that already. It was hard to see Georgia coming last week. You could easily see Alabama just like trying to bear crawl over broken glass their way to a win here, and yet let's take a look at what Fandall has. The number right now is Bama minus 14 and a half. The model has Alabama minus 11, so it has come back to Earth on Alabama, but you know what I'm gonna do? I'm not gonna take either one of those. If you consider how offensively challenged A&M is, and you consider, I think from a game script perspective, how much Alabama is gonna want to condense this game and focus on establishing the run, that overhunders 50 and a half, Jesse. I'm just going under 50 and a half. I guess the model would have us lean A&M plus the points. I think Alabama will win the game. I'll just go under 50 and a half. I don't think this will be the most aesthetically pleasing game of the weekend. What do you think the over-under child life for this is? Two, over-under, two and a quarter, yeah, under, but I will take under on the point total is about 50 and a half. I'll take Bama to win no opinion on the spread. Big announcement, frankly, I was supposed to make it Sunday, but I forgot, huge announcement here. I come from Harris County, Georgia. In Harris County, Georgia, whether it's Harris County Carver Middle School, Harris County High School, a solid 60% of me and my classmates just wore camo to school. It's just normal for us. Everybody hunts where I'm from. Everybody hunts where a lot of you are from. Even if you don't, you realize wearing camo looks pretty good socially. If you roll in the kind of circles we roll in, I've known the folks at Real Tree for a long time. We have finally been able to make an apparel deal happen with Real Tree. So as of this very moment, it's live, right, Jesse? Yeah. As of this very moment, at PateStateMaterial.com, we have PateState Real Tree hoodies. PateState Real Tree Camo T-shirts. We got them right now. I expect these things will fly off the shelves and we will probably get a more extensive line. I can't wait to see you wear one of these, Jesse. And go back home to Pennsylvania and just let the folks around Harrisburg see you and ask what happened to him, the upgraded, that's what happened to him. PateStateMaterial.com, proud to partner with our friends at Real Tree. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, standup, comedian, creator, and host of SCAM Goddess Podcast. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamor and Morris and Nicole Buyer. Oh, I scammed them. What? The Scams run the gamut, I'm talking about scams from the 1800s, all the way up to today. I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers, call your grandparents, tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please. So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals. We're listening to scam goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Get worse with Kyle Prew is not one of those podcasts. So if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptide, setting boundaries, taking supplements, making your better getting closer, then I would humbly recommend other podcasts. But if you're interested in blackmail, love bombing, cloning yourself, or getting revenge, then we've got a little something-something for a dastardly individual like you. Fake a back injury. Get the spray tan, up your alcohol consumption. Kill 'em. Kill 'em. Kill 'em with a gun. Listen, it's already over. The next time a bear is running at you, you just calmly stop what you're doing, you look the bear in the eye, and you say this isn't you. Do not preserve relationships. You don't need them. You only need one thing, and that's the get worse podcast. Listen to get worse with Kyle Pru on the iHearn Radio App Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey everybody, it's me, Debbie C'monBell. This season of my podcast who's with me, I speak with two-time Emmy winner and weirdly one of my best friends, Kevin Avery. Everything up to that point, Bill G. was a comic. Us going on the road, doing Battle Mountain and Ely and all this. Yeah, you took me, you were one of the first people who took me on the road, which is funny because at the time I was like, "I don't know if I like this guy." With rapper, actor, David Diggs. The jump-off for me was Hamilton and it was the most popular thing in a very long time, but it was still for me, it was me and my friends making something dumb. Bruce Lee's daughter and Brandon Lee's sister, Shannon Lee. Back to your initial point of stewarding my father's legacy and giving my energy to that. You're lending your life to stewarding somebody else's life. Listen to Who's With Me with Debbie C'monBell on the I Heart Radio App Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey everybody, I'm Chuck Bryan at The Stuff You Should Know Podcast. And I'm Adam Pranaka of The Greatest Generation and Greatest Trek. We decided to start a golf comedy podcast because we're both big golf lovers and we wanted to spread that joy and it's called Three-Put Bogey. It's coming from the perspective of golfers who are sometimes good enough to hit two great shots in a row, but almost never good enough to hit three. And a Three-Put Bogey is kind of the purest expression of that. Every golfer knows what that's like. Obviously we're gonna talk a lot about the game of golf, how absurd it is, and how fun it is, and how vexing and frustrating. But more than anything, just how much we love the greatest game in the world. We love it anyway. We're putting these out every Friday morning for your weekend golf routine. This is a show about sharing our experiences on the golf course and how absurd and funny they can be. And that's what Three-Put Bogey is. It's Three-Put Bogey everybody out every Friday. You can listen to it now on the I Heart Radio App Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, this is where the show gets dangerous a little bit. Unless you're really mature, in which case you'll be able to handle what's about to happen. The week 8 JP poll is out. Now as you'll remember this past weekend, we just had a mushroom cloud over the entire sport. Everything went up in smoke, and when you see results on the field, you then look at a predictive model, which is what this is, just power rating. So who would be favored against who on a neutral field? Nothing more, nothing less, folks, nothing more, nothing less, and it's not going to make much sense to people. I really hesitated to put this out on Twitter today. Press peer pressured me into putting it out. Also, I think we owe it to put it out. But yeah, so here's what it looks like guys. And let's just go to the feedback. I got to say something about Ohio State in a second because there's still number one here. Nick said there is no shot in H.E. double hockey sticks. Alabama would be favored on a neutral side against Tennessee. Well Nick, let me enlighten you my friend. Alabama was just a touchdown favorite in Neal and Stadium. There is no result in that game, along with Keel and Russell quitting football that would move a point that was equal to 10 points on a neutral field that much. So they 1,000% would be favored against Tennessee on a neutral field if they play today. It is at this point inevitably that someone will come in the comments section and say, well, I guess we just don't even need to play the games, right? Yeah, you do. Well, why should we? So you can get a result. But what does it matter if you're going to put BAM above Tennessee? I wouldn't in a ranking. If I wouldn't, if I were a playoff committee member, but a predictive model would cause it's not focused on merit or rewards. It's just focused on the next week. I really wish in an alternate universe I could give someone $5 billion of seed money or however much it costs to open a sports book. And I wish I could let a complete normal person who is unfamiliar with this process open a sports book and put their own lines out. That'd be fun. Because what I want to know is, is, well, what do you think it should be here? And by the way, if you put Tennessee above Alabama, you're not just doing that in a vacuum. You're putting Tennessee rated that much higher than this model would have it, which means every other line, like Tennessee versus South Carolina this week. Tennessee is a two and a half point dog, right? Well, no, according to you, you would move that down. You would make like Tennessee a one point favorite. So there would be a massive chain reaction throughout the entire ecosystem. And then you would have to put those numbers out and let an entire market bet on them. And I think really quickly what you would find is you cannot emotionally need jerk your power ratings, massive six and seven point chunks based on the outcome of one game. Do you remember Jesse in 2021? It was either 21 or 22. Bamma played Georgia in the SEC title game. Georgia was favored. Alabama won. They played again a month later in the national title game. Georgia was still favored. And I remember on the show, there were people who couldn't make any sense of it. If this game just happened on a neutral field, no less a month prior and team a one, how is team B still favored a month later on a neutral field? Oh, by the way, what was the outcome of that second game? So it's almost like one singular outcome is not reflective of what a game would be like if you played it a thousand times or even two times. Needless to say, this pales in comparison to how upset people are that brick and young is still only number 11. Jameson said, I need to know what the difference between Brigham Young and Notre Dame is because while the game was close, BYU outplayed three of the last four quarters. Hey, I got no problem. Do you say in that? That's why I got Brigham Young. I got, I got to miss the number one seat in the playoffs right now. But in a predictive modeling standpoint, you again, same same thing here, understand BYU is a 10 and a half point dog at home, which implies about 13 and a half or 14 point dog on a neutral field to Notre Dame. They lost at the buzzer like Notre Dame was taking shots at the end zone at the end of the game. Four point loss, that number's not going to move all that much. Notre Dame, Jesse, how shocked do you think people would be if they found out Notre Dame would be favored by like a touchdown if they played at Brigham Young this week? Yeah, much less neutral field. So that's the fun part of it, especially if you're a Brigham Young fan, just like if you were an Indiana fan the last two years. Vegas kept putting a lower number on you than you thought should be on you. You kept covering and you got to look at the best in the world. Vegas odds makers, fan dual odds makers, you got to look at him and say, you don't know anything about us. We know more about our team than you do. And hey, it turns out you were right. So the Ohio State conundrum, that's what we have to address next. Joe said is the model accounting for the Julian say in injury. No, no. In this graphic, no, because I wasn't going to put that. I wasn't going to bake that into the model because we didn't have it confirmed. But like in the last hour after we had already made the graphic, frankly, we found out Julian say it's probably done for the year, which means the number one team in the country here in the J people is without their starting quarter back the rest of the year. Quick guess. We're probably going to shave about three and a half somewhere between three and four points off of Ohio State's overall grade. If we look in the model right here, this is raw data. After all, can't put this out there for the public. My guess is that'll drop Ohio State somewhere in the seven to 10 range. I haven't factored it in yet is what I'm saying. No, Ohio State's not number one with Julian saying out they're going to be in about the seven to 10 range. Here's what we do not know. We have no idea how good a backup quarterback is going to play there because guys, we don't even know who the backups going to be yet. Everyone kind of thought it'd be Tavy and saying Claire and then wait a second. That's not who just went in the game. They're on a buy this week. So we'll see about that. Louisville Kentucky, we we hit up Fandall might. But we don't know right now what the line on Louisville versus Kentucky would be. I say that because someone took great issue with the fact that Louisville is 20th and Kentucky is 24th. Now I got to tell you this is me talking not the model. This is an off the record statement. I agree with you. I'd put Kentucky above Louisville. The model is not flawless. Do we need to go back just one week ago, Jesse? Do you remember who the model had 17th last week? The Baylor Bears? Yeah. And where is Baylor this week model? Hey, hello, where is Baylor this week? Oh, there are no where to be found because you were dumb about Baylor. The model may be dumb and stubborn about Louisville right now. I thought Baylor was too high last week and I was right. And you think and I think that Kentucky should be ahead of Louisville? We're probably both right. And then lastly, someone was asking about the gap. Someone said, what's the spread between number two and number 25? 13 and a half points right now. That's the total separation between Georgia and Auburn. And if we just do the numbers there, that's very interesting. Georgia was what a 19 and a half point favorite at home last week, subtract about three. So that means 16 and a half is the implied gap between those teams just last week. And then you get the result you got. So maybe Auburn rises. Georgia falls a little bit. That would be right there in line with what the model has right now. You would think somewhere around a 13 to 15 point gap between Georgia and Auburn. Those teams happen to be number two and 25 for us right now. Here's the big takeaway. And this is why it's about to get really crazy. It's already gotten crazy. According to the model, there's no top 10 team that's elevated. Like if you look at the preseason grades for any of these teams, I don't care who it is, any of these teams. The thing that normally happens where one or two teams have started to really elevate, that hasn't happened. In fact, most of these teams have had a net downgrade based on what their preseason grade was. And that means either someone's about to hit the gas or we're going to have the most wide open final month of the season that we've ever seen in the modern era. The big risers right now are Wake Forest. Wake Forest is up nearly two touchdowns in their power rating now versus preseason. And Oregon State is the same way. They're up like I think 11 or 12 points. I can't remember my stop my head. But like Notre Dame, Indiana, Miami, LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee. None of those teams have had that big three or four or five point bump above and beyond what their preseason grade was. It's the opposite. Most of them are down relative to their preseason grade. And if that's not a sign of the times, I don't know what it is. Let's move on. More game predictions. I've also got something about quarterback play. Just across the sport, quarterbacks are sick, Jesse. The quarterback position. It's sick right now. It needs to take its vitamins. I gotta update this right quick. Just pause one second. I appreciate you guys being tuned in. If you're live, please subscribe to the channel. How many we have right here? Five, eight, nine, six, oh eight. As of this very moment in time. That is our live subscriber count. I just have them keep it up here at all times immunity. I like, I like seeing the number just climb and climb and climb during a live show. It's really fun. 600 K just around the corner. Okay, Ole Miss, Texas. This is going to be a very, very nervous watch. This game's presented by Quick Trip. Crispy snacks to galore at Quick Trip. Texas is at a crossroads. There are no two ways about this. Texas, Steve Sarkiesian, Arch Manning. The vibes around everything is at a crossroads. You gotta be very careful with stats. Hey, I got, look at this. I got papers full of stats. But man, I could tell you what Texas stat profile is defensively. I don't have a stat profile for them without Colin Simmons because he's played all year, but he ain't playing in this game. And conversely, I could tell you that Ole Miss' run defense on paper still ranks pretty low. I just watched them hold Missouri to 39 yards on the ground. I don't think this means anything, Jesse. I think this is just a total up in the air game. I don't want to ward the paper up because I actually keep these and document them, but I mean, there may be a ceremonial here. This post it that's had gum in it for a month. There we go. I'm wadding that up. It looks like it was grape, maybe. Grape gum. So, Trinidad Chamblist plus Kiwan Lacey. We got to check Lacey's status, but them versus this Texas defense. That's a rub the hands together and get ready for like a Saturday night special sort of deal. How much does Colin Simmons be an out mean, by the way? We got to figure that out. He had more sacks than the rest of that team combined. Like this is one of if not the very best defensive players in the country just gone. And I know Texas folks are talking about it. I'm sure Ole Miss folks are talking about it. Jesse, I don't feel nationally like that's being emphasized enough only because everyone's talking about arch. This is a massive deal, guys. It's a massive deal no matter what, but they're playing one of the best offices in the country here. Ole Miss has 400 plus total yards in every game this season. So, Trinidad Chamblist, if he's on, if he's B plus or better in this game, they will score because quarterbacks of that talent level will score against anyone if they're on. We saw that it gets Georgian to sugar bowl last year. It does not matter. The rules of this game and the caliber of athlete that is, especially when you're without your best pass rusher, maybe the best pass rusher in the country, he will score. They will move the ball. That makes this game a little different than some of these other games. Texas has played because some of these other games you were pretty confident as long as we don't turn the ball over. Like if you take out the Oklahoma game, the turnovers, if you take out the Florida game, like if you take out turning over the ball defensively, you're pretty confident you can hold the other guy upper teens low 20s. I would not be comfortable assuming that against Ole Miss, which means you're going to have to trade points, which means you're going to have to count on that offense to do either one of two things. Either you're going to have to run the ball a lot better than you have, which I'm not counting on, or archman is going to have to make a whole bunch of plays. And that also hasn't happened with regularity. So it's going to fall in the quarterback position here. And I know it's been uncomfortable. I was listening to the sound. I was listening to the sound bites earlier today of him saying I got a chip on my shoulder. I just got to let it rip. Hey, he's looked his best when he has. I mean, that Ohio State game still comes to mind. I know, you don't have to tell me, I know, but man, it's a different ball game when it's turning that shameless on the other side of the field. And maybe he runs the ball more in this game. That's the one wild card. He hasn't run the ball a whole lot. Maybe that equates to turning it loose and letting it rip. I don't think that's what he means when he says that. So if that is not the case, Pete Golding, I guarantee you will do exactly what some are all in those guys did last week. Florida blitzed nearly 60 percent of Texas's offensive snaps. Ole Miss is number four in the country in pressure rate. They'll do the exact same thing and it's going to be up to him with really, really chaotic looks to make sound decisions and throw the ball accurately. And if he can do it for four quarters, maybe that's why Texas is favored. A lot of ifs there, man, a lot of ifs. And the external factors matter in this game. I think a whole lot more than pretty much any other game on the schedule this weekend because if Texas does not start hot, the climate's going to be really bad. This is, it's always nice to play at home. But the thing about playing at home when things aren't going well is if you don't start out hot, it can become detrimental to be playing at home. Because if I'm Ole Miss and I get a 10-nothing lead on you and I start hearing booze or I start feeling a disgruntled crowd, do you're fueling me? You're not fueling the home team. And then the other part of that is how long is the leash, how short is the leash? Do we see KJ Lacey this week? What is the quarterback plan? What is the offensive game plan here? Is Sark willing to make the move? And at what point in the game? Does he think it's time to make the move? Because you know how much I love backup quarterbacks. We see it all the time. Guy goes down to injury or guy just gets pulled because he's ineffective. And there's that sugar high effect. There's that shock panel to the chest effect in college football that putting the backup quarterback in sometimes has. Maybe that moment happens for Texas here. But here's the thing. Texas is not the only variable. Like Texas against Florida last week when they're favored by 11 and a half points, you're thinking, oh man, if Texas just takes care of business, they'll win. I don't know how it's to put this. Ole Miss is good enough to beat you if you do take care of business in your building. If you don't take care of business, they're good enough to embarrass you in your building. So let's take a look at what the model thinks. Because this number is eerily reminiscent of that Ole Miss Florida number from a few weeks ago. Same exact spread. You remember Ole Miss was coming off the LSU win. Looked like best team in the country. And they're going to go to Florida six days later. And Fandall opens the number Florida minus three and a half. And everyone's like, is that a typo? How could Ole Miss be an underdog? Well, they got drug by Florida. That's how they could open as an underdog. A little bit different situation here. Ole Miss is not do down off anything. Ole Miss has run the score up two weeks in a row against Vandy and they just trash canned Missouri last week. And now they go in there in a three and a half point dog. I will pay to see it. I will take Ole Miss money line. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'm actually, I don't think I'm going to be on this game, but for the shows per buy, plural of purpose, I'll take Ole Miss money line. I'll easily take in plus three and a half and I'll pay to find out if that line's correct. I'll pay to find out if Texas still has it in them. Because that feels like a very fragile operation right now. Each week, I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamon Morris, and the Coldbuyer. Ooh, I scammed them. What? You're generational yapper, like me. And the scams run the gamut. I'm talking about scams from the 1800s all the way up to today. So, if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to SCAM Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Get worse with Kyle Prue is not one of those podcasts. So, if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptide, setting boundaries, taking supplements, making your better getting closer, then I would humbly recommend other podcasts. Kill 'em. Kill 'em with a gun. Do not preserve relationships, you don't need them. Listen to get worse with Kyle Prue on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Everything up to that point, Bill G was a comic. Us going on the road, doing battle mountain and e-leaf and all this shit. Yeah, you took me, you were one of the first people who took me on the road, which is funny because at the time I was like, I don't know if I like this guy. Rapper, actor, the beat digs. The jump off for me was Hamilton, and it was the most popular thing in a very long time, but it was still for me, it was me and my friends making something dumb. Listen to who's with me with WQM Bell on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey everybody, I'm Chuck Bryan at The Stuff You Should Know Podcast, and I'm Adam Pranaka of The Greatest Generation and Greatest Trek. We decided to start a golf comedy podcast because we're both big golf lovers and we wanted to spread that joy and it's called Three-Putt Bogey. It's coming from the perspective of golfers who are sometimes good enough to hit two great chats in a row, but almost never good enough to hit three, and a Three-Putt Bogey is kind of the purest expression of that. Obviously we're going to talk a lot about the game of golf, how absurd it is, and how fun it is, and how vexing and frustrating. We love it anyway. That's what Three-Putt Bogey is. It's Three-Putt Bogey, everybody, out every Friday. You can listen to it now on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Talking about quarterback play a lot, one of you asked a question earlier today, I wanted to get to this. Will Terry from Carrollton, Texas. He said everyone thought this season was going to be loaded with great quarterback play and it hasn't really turned out that way. Are you surprised with how many quarterbacks fell off this year? Yeah, I am, but no, also, I'm not, I am surprised in totality. Let me put it that way. So, I remember we put a graphic together in July or something like that, and you were just looking at all the names. A lot of them were proven. A lot of them had already put together pretty good bodies of work, so your mind just defaults to, well, they're not going to get worse, right? So they'll be at least as good as they've been if not better, plus you got a bunch of these young guys. So I was really excited about the quarterback landscape this year, and hasn't turned out that way. Has it? It really hasn't. And so a couple of things were in play here, because on the whole, I am surprised, but when you zoom it in individually, I'm not as surprised when you drill down to really what I think the crux of the issue is, but I think there may be, ooh, Croy, multiple of crux. I don't know. We've never had to do this before. Cry? Yeah. Anyway, the five star quarterback bust rate, Jesse, do you feel like it's on the rise? It feels that way. And I don't know if that's anecdotal, because I really haven't done the research on that. But it does feel like you're looking around, and more so than ever, former five star quarterbacks are busting in relation to expectation. Okay. So I think roster instability has a lot to do with that. Here's what I don't think. I don't think that talent evaluators just forgot how to grade quarterbacks. There were always busts. There always will be bust for a number of factors. But I don't believe that we're looking at guys and giving them five stars, and all the sudden now the recruiting rankings just suck. And here's the way I know that, because the guys with five stars, they're not five star players who have offers from second and third level schools. The five star guys have offers from Georgia and Ohio State, Miami. So either every single person is wrong or some other things have changed. And I believe conditionally, it could be case by case, but I believe holistically other things have changed. And the first one is the overall level of roster turn year over year is really magnified. And I think it manifests itself in quarterback play, because you could talk about offensive line inconsistency. You could talk about the team dynamic, not being nearly as coalesce is what it used to be on average. And the thing about it is no one watches the right guard, aside from Kubrick, for snap one through snap one seven or through snap 70, you watched quarterback. You focus on quarterback statistics. But I think a lot of that sometimes is downstream of just overall continuity or lack thereof of a roster. But here's the other thing, career trajectories do not always just continue to go up. I think a lot of times this stuff's misunderstood. Drew Aller was a perfect case study of this last year, because Drew Aller had consistency all around him. Some staff, he was there multiple years, they had a ton of returning talent around him. Here was the flaw. You just expected him to keep getting better. And the reality was he kind of just he kind of peaked his first year and never really improved. And that's the mistake you make. I'm pointing to myself because I do that sometimes as well. You just assume, well, every year a guy in a returns, he'll improve 15%. Sometimes they do. Sometimes they, they're bad year one, year two, and then they blow up your three. Sometimes they're the best they're going to be year one. And then they steadily downtrend, year two, year three. What else do these situations have in common? Arch is underperformed. Mateer fell off a cliff. Marcel reads nothing. A backed has been really poor. Bryce Underwood got benched. Julie and Sayon before he got hurt, what doing nearly what people expected him to do. What's the common theme there? They don't have run games. The teams can't run the ball. Texas has been terrible running the ball this year. A&M's run game is non-existent. Ditto for a second straight year at Oklahoma. Penn State can't run the ball. Michigan has not run the ball all that great. And I thought Michigan to be a top 10 rushing offense this year. Ohio State same thing. They're in Jesse, I think they're in the 70s. In overall, rushing output. You don't think that has a little something to do because I'm looking at some other guys like Gunner Stockton, who has guys behind him in the backfield of the can run the ball. Gunner Stockton's fine. They got the 31st ranked run or rushing offense in the country. Darry and Mensa looks really good at Miami. Top 15 run offense. Jayden Mayov is a little bit of an exception there. USC is running. game's not top 50, but what is he? He's a third year quarterback, third year starter quarterback under Lincoln Riley in the same program. So it makes sense that he would elevate. Trinidad Chambliss is just a freak show. So some guys kind of transcend all of this, but Conor Wigman at Houston is out playing a lot of these dudes. He's got the 17th ranked rushing offense at his disposal at Brigham Young, Bearbot, Bearbot Myers got a top 25 rushing offense. So my point is quarterback play largely is a product of the ecosystem that that guy exists in. And I don't think you're putting these dudes in situations where the run games non-existent and saying, "Oh, that doesn't matter because we got a great quarterback." No, no, you don't. You've got a former five star quarterback. You got a guy you're paying a lot of money. You don't have a good quarterback, though, because a good quarterback plays good. And all you have is a good one on paper. So I think maybe I look at some of these cases like it Texas. I thought Texas would be way better run in the ball this year. I thought A&M would figure out the ground game this year. You could go up and down this list, dude. I would have sworn to you, Ohio State was going to at least be a top 30 rushing offense. They're not. And as a result, magically, their quarterback plays not where you want it. I just, I don't think those are isolated conditions. Look at how much money we gave away this week. Okay, so it fanned all the exclusive odds provider of our show every week for free on Wednesdays. It starts on Wednesday. They put up a pick 'em contest. So myself, we'll Compton, Taylor LaWon, we'll just pick 10 games against the spread. And then you're welcome to compete against us. And if you finish number one, which just means you need to go 10 for 10, because they're like, last week we had 200,000 entries. So 127 people went 10 for 10. Each one of those 127 people took home over $3,900 in bonus bets. They woke up the next morning and there was nearly $4,000 in their account that wasn't there the day before. There's no catch here. It's free. Just go make your picks. It's free. And they're given away 500 grand each week in prizes. Not over the course of a season each week. So like that's no joke, 127 people took home $3,900 each this past week. All because they took 10 seconds and made picks. Crazy. Must be 21 plus in present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas, Starkicino, or 18 plus and present in DC. First on my real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawal bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt, restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandool.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandool.com/rg. Call 1-888-789777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut or visit ndgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-32750 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts. Or call 1-8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. I've got some picks for you right here as we wrap the show up. The Ramanoodle Express already has UMass plus 15 and a half. I saw that drop to 14 and a half. We got it at 15 and a half. I am adding a game tonight. Which risky but you know what that's why it's fun. Pit is playing Miami. Pit is getting 20 and a half points. Jesse doesn't like it. I don't care. It's not like we're taking Rutgers money line. Pit plus 20 and a half, we are adding to the Ramanoodle Express that's two best bets so far this week. Even with last week's 4-8 disaster, we're still up on the year. I'm so proud that we were able to withstand. That would derail most Ramanoodle Express's. Not ours though. Not ours. So UMass and Pit will add several more throughout the week. Appreciate you guys so much. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel. We added a lot of subs during the show. Good for us. Good for us. Yeah. On our way to 600K. I am really looking forward to Friday. I'm really looking forward to Friday. I hope it's a good show for JP's sake. JP Hovey is a dear friend of ours. He bleeds, garnered in black. He eats, sleeps and breeds. South Carolina football and we're going over there in his backyard. He'll be there with us somehow, some way he's got to be incorporated into the show. I would think. But this is maker break week for him. Not just the game on Saturday, but how many South Carolina gamecock fans show up to our show on ESPN Friday. It's personal for him. I think he'll do what it takes. He'll knock on doors. He'll go grassroots. He'll go door to door block to block in Columbia. But I'm looking forward to it. We'll be back with more predictions, upsettlers coming Thursday, commissioners poll coming Thursday. Until then, for director Bradley, producer Jesse, I'm Josh Payt. Take care. Let's have a great rest of our evening and God bless. [MUSIC] Must be 21-plus in present in select states for Kansas. In affiliation with Kansas, Starkicino, or 18-plus in present in DC. First on my real money wager only, $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withrobble bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. [MUSIC] I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcasts. Each week I bring on an amazing guess. Ooh, I scammed them. What? Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Get worse with Kyle Pru is not one of those podcasts. If you're interested in blackmail, love, bombing, cloning yourself, or getting revenge, then we've got a little something-something for a dastardly individual like you. Listen to get worse with Kyle Pru on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Introducing Global Flow with me, Dramas. A new podcast where I sit down with disruptors across music, entertainment, business, and tech. To break down what they're building, get the blueprint to how they got there. All while trying to figure out what's coming next. Listen to Global Flow on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Immanuel Jochi. I'm Kai Wright. And this is Big Lives. Listen to Big Lives on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.