Ukraine war, Lessons learned from OSNIT: Financial Impact| Part Four

[MUSIC PLAYING] Welcome to Ice Canyon Conversation, where we talk about cybersecurity, military defense, crisis communications, and much more with industry experts from around the globe. Stay tuned. US is warning China not to help Russia with weapons or ammunition in the war in Ukraine. The State Department today saying that if China did help, there would be dire consequences for the people of Ukraine in panel, in Ukraine for us again tonight. Tonight, intense battles raging across the front lines in eastern Ukraine. New video showing street-to-street fighting in backmoons. The city in ruins. With Russia losing men and munitions, the US warning China not to help Russia. The US State Department saying, if China were to provide lethal assistance to Russia, it would have dire consequences for the people of Ukraine. China responding, accusing the US of disinformation and a double standard. Welcome to Ice Scan Group, next-level threat series podcast, Ukraine War, lesson learned from open source, part four, financial impact. I wanted to pick up on the Ice Scan Group open source analysis related to some of the financial impacts. And I'm reading from the report. It says in the short-term Beijing found talking about, obviously, China, Taiwan, possible conflict. In the short-term Beijing has found advantages by taking advantage of a sanctioned Russia and benefiting from affordable Russian commodities. Chinese corporations have successfully seized emerging opportunities in the Russian market. However, the ongoing conflict poses a substantial threat to global supply chains, including critical shipments in grain and fertilizer that are really vital to China's reliance. And I was going to ask everyone just, it's kind of where we see China kind of taking advantage. Any thoughts on any insights on where we see, if the war continues, what we see China taking advantage of the situation. And my comment here, it's really, obviously, this war, which is a proxy war between NATO and Russia. It's a proxy war by China. And the use of AI just as Kent mentioned, it would be detrimental in the future conflict and how war will be conducted in the future. And AI is very much a decision-making technology that can help reduce the key chain, just like I can mention. But to do so, you need a lot of processing power. And we have seen between the web-powered politics between China and US that competition to over AI. And US tried to curb and impose restrictions to China to access some hardware technologies, tips, for example, that will enable China to really enhance its computing power. Very recently, China imposed export controls over two methods that are used in high-emceh semiconductors. And those are GALIA, men, genonium. And that's very interesting because China supplies 80% of the war, GALIA, and MENGEMARium. And I think US is sourcing close to 50% to 60% from China. So it remains to be seen, to what extent, that ban will disrupt the production of semiconductors. But this is definitely something that fits into the wider war of technologies of the commune makes. And which country will which why to take the lead on AI? Another question. So on top of that, I was going to ask just about-- it maybe takes a step back-- and just about sanctions. We've seen a country that's pretty hardened. Obviously, they have workarounds. What happens in a China Taiwan conflict? One thing to look at is China has it builds things that the rest of the world wants. And Russia, too much, much, much lesser degree. There's some tech products here and there. But Russian goods, particularly the consumer goods in electronics, are not in high demand. Whereas China has now reached the point where it's building its own airline, high-speed trains. It has mobile phone technology. And obviously, a big rice exporter. And so to me, it seemed much riskier. In terms of the world economy to begin sanctioning China to any great degree, whereas Russia, OK, there's the oil part. There's the green part. But it's-- and obviously, the ability to control the bus for us. But it seemed to be much riskier. Now, one of the issues with the sanctions that Navalny, the former presidential candidate in Russia, I think, who's in prison now, he said that despite the sanctions, I mean, they're not being applied to the same degree in Russia, on Russian citizens, oligarchs, and so on, and the political elite. Either they should be in that many, many, many transactions and that are slipping through the cracks. Now, if there was an attempt to sanction China, Chinese officials, Chinese elite, the Chinese elite, would they, in fact, be successful? Would there, in fact, be enforcement of these sanctions? And yes, they make great headlines. Oh, this oligarch was sanctioned. This person's yacht was seized. But when it comes down to it, how effective could these sanctions even be given in the state the globalized nature of the economy and that? So I'm quite dubious or quite skeptical of the potential success of sanctioning China. I think it's at best a threat that if it ever came down to it, it might be quite risky. Used a broken nest is a concept that is being used quite a bit. I wonder if you can explain it. And is that a reality if there was a conflict with China and Taiwan? OK. The apparently a lot of people in the US are talking about a broken nest idea. And from a US perspective, it kind of makes sense with denying what the Chinese think they need and most from Taiwan. But on the other hand, that also shows the ignorance of how Washington understands the lack of understanding about the strategic thinking or the thinking of both Beijing and Taiwan. But broken nest being the destruction of all the-- is it the plants? Is it-- Yeah, there's a talk about destroying the chip's plant and also evacuating the high-tech personnel from the companies. And that doesn't sit very well with the Taiwan audience. And obviously no Taiwan politician dare to comment anything, dare to even hinting at supporting that kind of idea. That's a political suicide. So there's not going to be any cooperation there for sure from the Taiwan side. And from the Beijing side, well, it's hard to believe that just the chip's production alone can be a single factor that deters Xi Jinping's ambition to attack Taiwan or not. I think it is a small group of-- as we started from a small group of people who really issues with Beijing's Xi Jinping regime and was able to convince a small group of Washington political advocates and turn out that that's the case. But I just don't think the idea would fly either side. Even if they want to-- are interested in conducting the broken nest operation, there's not going to be any cooperation from the Taiwan side of sure. Thank you for listening to "I Scan In Conversation." If you want to know more about today's topic, check out isegangroup.com. Follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter, and hit the subscribe button.