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UAE LEAVES OPEC, Is This The End Of Saudi Arabia and Opec Countries? | Market Update

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UAE LEAVES OPEC, Is This The End Of Saudi Arabia and Opec Countries? | Market Update

The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC marks a significant geopolitical shift, driven by its long-term strategy to build alternative financial and trade systems. The UAE has integrated into China’s payment system, become a crypto hub, and is a major Bitcoin miner. It also sought an FX swap line from the Federal Reserve, indicating a move away from the petrodollar system. This exit is partly due to a rivalry with Saudi Arabia over OPEC quotas, as the UAE seeks to increase its oil production capacity. The move is linked to broader trends, including the rise of BRICS, gold corridors that circumvent sanctions, and the development of central bank digital currencies. The UAE’s infrastructure investments and desire for greater autonomy in the post-war order suggest it aims to become a key player in a multipolar world. OPEC is criticized as a price-fixing cartel that artificially inflates oil prices and blocks alternative energy, but the UAE’s exit could lead to lower oil prices and increased competition. This decision reflects a complex interplay of economic, geopolitical, and financial factors, signaling a potential end to the petrodollar era and a shift toward a more decentralized global financial system.

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Huge news and the news is that the UAE has decided to leave OPEC and so we're going to have Simon Dixon coming on the show and financial expert, a Bitcoin OG, who's going to break it all down for us. What is the implications of it? Are we going to have a major oil crisis? Why did the UAE do this? What was the reason for it? What is the impact it's going to have? And what is this ecology? Is this an act of desperation? I know Simon is going to say it's not, but let's see what he's going to say. Simon, thanks for joining us. Hope you're doing well. How are you? Very good, Salomon. Thank you. Yeah, pretty big news. It's a pretty geeky topic, but I think we'll try and cover it in terms of its implications, but pretty big implications. Yeah. Well, obviously the news is that UAE is leaving OPEC. One could say that this is a spontaneous decision. I tend to believe that it's going to be understood in combination with a lot of other things that happened over the years. And so if we kind of break it down, it really is about some of the monetary and financial architecture. So just in simple terms, if we look at UAE, we know that Salomon, you are no big fan of UAE for quite legitimate reasons. But if we strip out some of what we think about UAE and look at what the implications are, obviously they normalize with Israel in the Abraham Accords. And then in 2024, they join bricks at the same time that Iran joined bricks. And then Saudi at the same time joined as an observer. And so and also Egypt joined at that same time. They also UAE provides the financial infrastructure that effectively allows Iran to circumvent some of the sanctions, which gave it some of its relief. And at the same time, the two largest trading partners as a result of this with Iran is number one China because they don't care about the sanctions. And UAE because it provided some of that infrastructure. And that kind of also lays into some of UAE's foreign policy. Many of the crimes against humanity that we've been witnessing. But the Libya and Sudanese operations kind of tie into the gold corridor. And if you look at the gold corridor trades, it starts to make sense why they might leave OPEC and what they've actually been building over these years. Leading up to this, they also did an integration into the Chinese payment system, SIFS, which has now got about 110 different countries as well. Because they employ a lot of people in building infrastructure and kind of many people have criticized how they treat like the underclass in Southeast Asia, India, Pakistan, various other places. But they're a ginormous source of remittances as well. At the same time, they put together a policy to become the crypto center of the Middle East and successfully did that. They also are the third largest Bitcoin mining country in the world. The first is Iran. The second is Russia and the third is UAE. But also they took over a European project by the Bank for International Settlements called Embryg, which is a network of central bank digital currencies that plugs together Saudi Arabia, UAE, Hong Kong, China, and Thailand. And all of those are significant in terms of the gold trade and the different types of corridors that are set up. So that was all before we entered into this war. When we entered into this war, we had obviously the targeting of US infrastructure, the Sard CIA infrastructure, US bases, and some of the air, you know, air, which really hit the tourism industry and some of those corridors. But recently leading up to this, we got an announcement from the Federal Reserve that UAE is looking for an FX warp line. Now it was framed as UAE in distress. While they have had significant impact on their economy as a result of this war. They still have $270 billion of dollar cash reserves and about 1.4 trillion of US assets, US treasuries and various other assets and and and port infrastructure investments and everything that they've had around the world. Now what where this becomes pretty significant and again, I don't want to be too geeky because all of these are pretty interesting to a geek like me. But the FX warp line is think of it as a mechanism for trying to incentivize somebody that has aspirations of being a financial center to have a Federal Reserve guarantee. At the same time as incentivizing them not to sell their treasuries and not to sell their equities because the US is in a situation where it has to have a continual purchase of its stock market. And it can't allow any of its foreign investors to sell its bonds. The reason for that is because as you sell your bonds, a buyer like UAE or Japan or any of these countries. When a bond price goes down the US debt, the yield goes up which means the cost for America buying refinancing is debt. All of American mortgage market, all of the credit card market, all of the auto low market, all of the extreme consumption economy that is over leveraged on debt. The cost goes up and it's a bit of a blowout and also the interest on the national debt at these record levels. And so what this kind of means is that America in its stage of its debt cycle right now is transitioning from being able to dictate and enforce countries to accept the dollar, high trade reason, lend it back to them. To you being able to leverage America by buying US equities and US bonds and requesting an FX swap line. And what an FX swap line means is that you print your local currency, which in the case of UAE is peg to the dollar. And then you deposit it at your account at the Federal Reserve. The Fed creates some brand new dollars which increases the national debt, creates inflation. But they can charge interest on that new debt and give this swap line. And so they use the local currency that occur in a country is printing and exchange it for dollars. And so this gives us effectively a country the ability to do what Japan did, what the European Central Bank did, what the Swiss Central Bank did, what the Canadian Central Bank, they what the Bank of England did, which is an exclusive club. It allows you to get America to print dollars and you leverage them not by not selling your equities and not selling a bonds. And so this is the FX swap line and immediately when UAE said we need that we want an FX swap line and Scott, the cent announced it. It started saying well we'll look to do that with all other partners across the Gulf as well and some of the Asian countries that might need it like South Korea or maybe even Taiwan or whatever it may be Japan already got that. And so when you combine all these things together, you've got alternative financial systems that are being built upon the Federal Reserve system. You've got a mechanism for increasing debt and you've got a mechanism for stopping countries from selling their bonds and selling their their equities. Pull that all together and that is really the death of the petro dollar in the what it was after the last oil embargo and really a different type of way of people circumventing sanctions as well. So like let's say for example, you have US dollars and you would like to trade with a sanctioned country. Then what you could do if you wanted to purchase some of Iran's oil, then you could take your US dollars in the western markets or the UAE markets or the Singapore markets or the Hong Kong markets. You can exchange your dollars for gold and then you can ship via the straight of whole moose your gold to Shanghai. And then Shanghai will allow you they'll keep that gold and then they'll give you a credit of Chinese yuan. But that yuan has to stay within China because China has capital controls. It doesn't want to export it. It doesn't want to be in a position that America's in where the financial industrial complex can take down its economy and own its economy. And that's where the straight of whole moose becomes essential for these gold routes. And then you can use your yuan to get Chinese exports. And then you can-- and import some of the oil, and that's really the alternative routes that have been set up. And it kind of combines all of these different effects. So why is now the time that UAE might leave OPEC? Well, allegedly, I mean, I've been looking at it. They've been building a lot of their capacity and infrastructure, and they were in a long-term argument with Saudi in terms of trying to get an increased quota with OPEC to push more oil out there. I think this is really an excuse to say we're going on our own path. Because at the end of this, if there is going to be sanction relief for Iran, those corridors are going to significantly change. Rather than Iran selling their oil to China at a discount, you're going to have three countries which historically perform Saudi's role. So Saudi has the largest exporter and the one able to produce oil at the cheapest rate with the smallest population to export more and more of it is kind of like the central banger boil. But now they went to about 30% petrol yuan over petrol dollar. But now, you're at the end of this. If we get to sanction relief, you're going to have the new increased capacity from UAE if it leaves OPEC. You're going to have Saudi, and then you're going to have Iran as well, which will be another two to four million barrels that can sell at that price. And really, there's a bit of an internal, I think, struggle to control the petrol yuan and the petrol dollar. And so this is a move from UAE, which will in the end, I believe, lead to lower oil prices. And just give it a bit of leverage in the post-World Order that emerges after once the hallmaze opens and once we get to the other side of this. Okay, there are quite a few questions on this. If that's okay. And I don't want to talk about OPEC as well. But just before we do, in terms of the UAE, I've been looking into this in quite a lot of detail from my understanding. Yeah, you're right. They always wanted an increased capacity. They will are claiming today that they're able to increase their capacity by one point. Can you hear me? Yeah. Okay. They are talking about increasing their capacity. And they are claiming today that they can increase their capacity by 1.5 to about 2.2 million barrels a day. But I looked into this a lot of detail. And actually, if you look at the pipeline through Fajera, you're looking at possibly 400,000 to 700,000 barrels. That's not consequential enough to even touch upon the Saudi grip on the oil industry. You know, isn't it? Saudi can hit up to about 10 million barrels possibly. I know right now it's a lot less because of the closure of the strip. So right now, they don't have that capacity. They have maybe a bit more than what they already had. I know they're thinking about creating more pipelines. But how does that make them the kind of third str- you know, with Iran, I understand, with Saudi and said, I don't see how this makes them the third kind of element within them. Yeah. Well, it depends what the truth is really. So what other analysts are saying that they have been working in the years prior to this at building infrastructure that can significantly increase their capacity. And then we've also had in conjunction with this the different battles over their ports in Somali land, Horn of Africa, different trade routes that could circumvent, you know, these different things. So we will find out what the reality is, but some analysts are saying that they build infrastructure that would be able to increase up to four million barrels apparently. I'm not sure if that's true. That's significant. I mean, that's on par with Iran, which sounds aggressive. But even if it is one million barrels, two million barrels, I think it's still a player. And yeah, apparently they've been building out their capacity, but obviously the street is closed right now. So they can't do anything right now. This is all about what it looks like after the street is open and what the post order looks like. Well, they claim, and I think they have a pipeline that doesn't go through the street. So this extra capacity of 400 to 700 thousand barrels would be circumventing the street from my understanding, which as if from I read 400 to 700 thousand, but they claim in 1.5 to 2 years. And some people are saying 4 million. So I guess we got a big variance in the amount. Okay, the second question I've got for you is one of the positions in both UNI hold is that we believe that Saudi and the UAE are kind of not having this kind of disconnect and the kind of kind of using UAE as the bad cop for what the entire region wants to do and what Saudi wants. But now I think in this commentary you mentioned how this is almost rivaling Saudi. So do you think are you thinking it's a bit different now or what's your perspective? I think both can be true. I think there is a recognition that we're entering into a new world order. There is a recognition that people are building the rail with four multi polarity. And there is a need to remain as one unified front of the GCC and play the good cop bad cop role. And clearly to me, Saudi is being branded as good cop and UAE is being branded as bad cop. But you can look across the GCC and you can see how they're managing Israel normalization, Abraham, or call it via UAE. You can see how they're managing an embridge network of central bank digital currencies. You can see how they're managing the different ports in the region. You can see that they're trading. I think Yemen versus Somali land was a trade. And I think they're still Sudan and Libya, which is going to hopefully resolve itself in the next year or so after this. And I think at the same time, everyone also wants to negotiate for their own position of power. And so there is always the opportunity. UAE is really building itself as a financial center and financial hub. It will take a hit after what's happened. But we have seen that it's just really, I think UAE has been vassalized more into the financial industrial complex more than ever. Like the ETFs are purchasing more real estate from the retail sellers. You had those Bitcoin to gold corridors being built. And I think to me, in recognition that the GCC is going to be a front that is aligned with BRICS and will be able to manage those FX swap lines with the Federal Reserve system. That everyone's going to kind of perform a slightly different role. And then you've got Qatar in the mix and then you've got Q8 and you've also got Turkey to factor in. So you can see those internal power struggles and you can also see I think coordinated games with good, good, bad cop. And I think both are true. Okay, that makes sense. And then in terms of OPEC, if you can explain to the audience what OPEC is OPEC essentially was a, and actually, is it, explain if it's even a good thing? Because I don't see how it's a good thing. These countries have essentially what? I mean, tell, let me know what your thoughts are. Like clue what colluded together to make sure the price of oil remains high. Now I understand if you're a poor country and you're worried that your oil, which is your only means to make money. You need the price to be higher. But most of these countries, other than maybe you could say, Venezuela and Iran due to sanctions, the rest of these countries who are part of OPEC are very financially wealthy countries. But if you can explain to the audience what OPEC is, what this agreement is. And whether you think it was a good thing or not. Yeah, OPEC is disgusting. I completely agree with Trump. He's always hated OPEC. And for different reasons. But the issue, so OPEC is a cartel where they engage in price fixing. And so those that are important enough to impact the price of oil, they coordinate on when they're going to release reserves, or when they're going to build up reserves. And through what we've even seen with the straight up from Mousse, when you change those amount of oil on the market, people are currently buying oil across the world at about $170 right now to get real oil, despite what the future's market is saying. And that's a horrible thing. We're seeing the humanitarian impact of that around the world. It is price fixing. It is illegitimate wealth if you're in a competitive market. And it relies upon all of the players in a game theoretical prisoner's dilemma, never defaulting from the quota. And so you have two parts. You have OPEC, which is where you effectively get a quota from Saudi Arabia with all the bells and whistles that comes with that in geopolitics, and in OPEC Plus, which is Russia as well. And so Russia really is, you know, Saudi and Russia become the price fixes. But you could argue that it was a resistance against the US corporate financial industrial complex big oil as well. But the key difference here is that if you look at Saudi, they can produce a barrel of oil for about $2 to $10. But the terms that Saudi has with its population is that we give you all of your welfare needs taken care of. And so they have a large fiscal demand for their population. And so to meet fiscal break even, they need to charge about $70. But if they don't factor in their fiscal budget and providing welfare for their population and making it where the people don't need to pay any tax, they can produce to about $2 to $10. In America, they need about $50 to break even. And once you go below $50, the companies are selling at a loss. And so through this type of thing, you've got OPEC and OPEC Plus, which also consists of Iran as well. And various others that are less lined outside the Gulf countries. Yeah, they're able to collude and just artificially push prices higher and interfere in geopolitical events. It gives them power in enforcing embargoes. We saw that during the Biden administration that Saudi chose Russia and Putin over Biden when last time America was going through its inflation cycle as a result of the Russia-acclaimable. And so it gives power. It props up these sovereign well funds. But at the same time, there is a ginormous power game, which is that China is inventing all the alternative forms of energy. And we're seeing lots of nuclear energy professors that get assassinated because it is a mafia. This is the highest level. The biggest pools of money, the highest levels of power and mafia games in the world. And so they're preventing alternative energy from succeeding. And nuclear energy is the real game, which is why the nuclear civilian nuclear program with Iran becomes such a big thing. I mean, they've been producing Bitcoin at about $0.2 electricity when the rest of the world is up 4% to 5% which means that they're producing more Bitcoin and their mining operations because they're using nuclear. So it is a disgusting thing. And we've been told for decades. And we're always told that we're going to hit peak oil, where oil runs out. It's why all these countries are looking to diversify their economies. But there is a real reality, which is that China doesn't have-- so they use coal, they use solar, they use wind, they use hydro, they use nuclear, they use everything that they can because they want to remove their dependency away from that. And that is what in effect is propping up these sovereign world funds. It is China purchasing all this energy as the world's manufacturing base. But just on that, in terms of just to kind of look at the other perspective, if it's true that oil is going to run out, which again, I understand the other theories that possibly it's not true. But anyway, let's assume that it's true that oil is going to run out. Then do these countries not have a responsibility to make sure that they don't just flood the market and then just completely run out as well. So would that not be a benefit-- I know this-- I might agree with you by the way. I'm just trying to play devil's advocate. Is there some kind of benefit to essentially keep control measures because you flood the market, you run out of oil, that would be an even bigger crisis? I'd agree with you if alternative energy didn't exist. But we've got amazing alternative energy. And those industries are being suppressed in order to prop up the profits of big oil. So it's purely individual sovereign survival and corporate cartels and profiteering. The real price of energy should be significantly cheaper. But there is a world economic forum, global agenda, to make everything unaffordable so that there's massive concentration of wealth upwards. And so to me, you need to flood the markets with energy. You need to get energy as cheap as possible. And you need to compete. And you need to innovate in alternative energy to help get-- to just really help innovation and free trade prevail. But yeah, so I'm all for breaking up these cartels. I think it's great for the consumer. But it also creates a massive power play and power struggle. I think what really comes here is even if UAE can't affect too much, which I think they can, at the end of this war. They can't during this war. But at the end, when the straight is open, it's what other players will do. How others will react to this. But I'm all for get the price of energy down. I think it's good for the consumer. I think it's bad for large pockets of corporate monopolies and cartels and sovereign wealth funds and the financial industrial complex in general. I'd like to starve them if we could. Yeah, I'm an agreement with you. I'm not sure if UAE can do it individually, but I think the cascading effect, if like lots of countries do it, then it could cause a huge impact. But just on that Simon, we've seen the price of oil, I believe, got $111 today. Correct me if I'm wrong. And that's despite this announcement. Now, if the street wasn't closed, one would assume that an announcement like this would just completely drop the oil prices significantly. Now, is it the fact that what's happening in the war is just completely, this is the oil prices is completely ignoring what this? Or is it that substantially actually the market doesn't think that this would have a huge impact in a real tangible way? No, I think it is that it makes no difference while the street is closed. But once the street is open and there is a deal and there is some kind of settlement or the natural conclusion of whatever the negotiated outcome may be, I think it will have an impact. And I think there's the potential to actually really kill the power of APEC here. And it's game theory. And I think that will help get energy prices down. But there's no impact right now. So that's not really factored in. And I do personally believe right now that the war has hit a stage where this is highly coordinated in order to manufacture a global crisis. And that global crisis is going to benefit many of those members of APEC, the financial industrial complex, the police and surveillance state, the military budgets, the big print. So this is massive wealth transfer and concentration of wealth from here on in. And all those that benefit from it, other ones that actually have the power to reach a resolution and come to an end right now. So I think we've hit that stage right now where they're trying to make manufacturer a crisis like COVID. Oh, I think it's much worse than COVID. I mean, just to add to what you're saying, I've had for a very long time. Honestly, this is going to sound like a conspiracy theory. But watch out for 2026, 2027, something huge has been occurring. And the financial market will be destroyed in a way that's never been seen in over a, in around a century. And so they were basically saying it's going to be maybe as bad if not worse than the Great Depression. And a few years ago, you couldn't see, you'd see like how are they going to do this? Well, we're seeing it happen in real time. So I agree with you. This was definitely manufactured in order to cause the harm that we're seeing. But in terms of coming back to the oil price, sorry, Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, this is a big blow to Saudi Arabia. The UAE is literally just giving them a head bow. What is Saudi Arabia going to do? How are they going to react? MBS isn't a man of great patience. He doesn't like to be disrespected unless it's by Donald Trump. How is he going to react to this? Well, I subscribe to a high degree of coordination between Saudi and UAE. So I think they've been trading. And I think this is part of their trade. So I think they've been settling port trade routes. I think they've been settling quotas. And I think that this would have been part of UAE's pre-agreed negotiation. That's just my-- I couldn't prove it, but that's my personal belief. But if we are to believe that this is a genuine trade and oil war, Saudi is still the most important power in terms of this population relative to the cost of production, relative to what it can export. And it still has very important relationships with both America and China. And so I would expect a genuine-- he can either-- it is a blow because it's taken away a massive tool for Saudi. You can either lean into it and constrict your reserves and try and protect the price, in which case you get a disjoint between-- because even UAE, they started creating their own-- oil markets. And so just like you're seeing WTI and Brent crude disjointed, you're also getting prices in a mine and prices in Dubai. So they built infrastructure to have these arbitrages. Or you know, you kind of push your price down, in which case it's going to severely impact the vision 2030, where he's trying to diversify his economy because there's lost profits to fill up the sovereign wealth fund to invest in things. So all in all, I think this move is bad for Saudi Arabia, but I think there would have been some quid pro quo in the background where Saudi may have made up for it. One of the things that I have been doing is looking at the covert deals. And one of the most likely beneficiaries of Venezuelan oil refinement in Texas is the subsidiary of Saudi Aramco 100% owned. Also, golden pass with Qatar. A lot of the LNG sales are going via golden pass and golden pass is 70% owned by Qatar Energy and 30% Exxon. So prior to this, as China was building up ginormous reserves, so they're a player as well. I think there are so many players that the tool that Saudi once had is a dying tool and we're going to enter into a more competitive market. And yeah, I do think it accelerates the need to diversify that economy further for Saudi. So just coming back to this point, so your point is this, this harms Saudi irrespective, but there is a possibility this could have been some concession. And that's possible either way, but either way, it is a kind of big problem for Saudi because if the UAE does it, so let's go with your thing. Let's say it is a concession, right? Because one possibility is not a concession. That's a major blow in Saudi. Saudi needs to do something about it. The second possibility is it's a concession. But even if it's a concession, now you're going to have other OPEC members in Wersak. Do we really need to stay in this? Saudi is actually the biggest beneficiary they're producing the most oil. Maybe we can jump out. I mean, this may start causing some form of cascading effect. It could, but I see UAE as a foothold in the GCC for the financial industrial complex. It is so much a financial center and normalized with Western interests while hedging Eastern interests. And I think we're going to see, I think Saudi is going to lean more and more into Petra-Uwan, bricks layers. And at the end of this, it also ties into the hold out for the Palestinian cause was actually Saudi. And so if you look at these big things, these big public facing things, what is the normalization agreement that's going to look like? Saudi has the hold out there. You've got the embridge project. You've got OPEC. You've got alternative financial rails. You've got UAE being more and more Western financial interests investing. There's a lot to play with. And there's a lot to negotiate in this new world order that we're essentially entering into. Okay. And now the prices of oil right now is 111 dollars. We're getting very close to your breaking point of 115 dollars. Obviously, he's not got many more rabbits. He can pull out the hat, other than maybe removing the blockade. Do you think that's what happens next because we're getting close to 115 again. And he posted so much today. I had no impact on the price of oil. Yeah, there's a couple of things in my mind. I find it pretty interesting, the administrative amuse. We've got these islands and three of them are disputes between UAE and Iran. And I'm not sure whether those have been set or we're going to get a bit of theatrics with a some kind of invasion that gives Trump the Hollywood movie, the B2 bombers. I'm preparing for some kind of theatrical end game and announcement of the deal because I think that negotiations never start throughout this whole process despite what would be in told. And maybe those UAE islands are a part of it. I do know that there are these major powers. And yeah, whether we're just going to get the announcement of the deal. But yeah, as you said, throughout this whole time, I've said, when the 30 year yields on US treasuries, it's 5%, we're about 4.9% right now and going up. When the 10 year treasury, which determines mortgages, hits 4.5%, we're over 4.3% now. When the one month oil futures on WTI approaches $115, we need some kind of event that crashes the price back down normalises those yields. And I feel like the next one is likely to be the final one. So maybe we get an escalate to de-escalate. Maybe we get a deal. But I think at this stage, nothing stops this train. And yeah, expecting something. But even the escalate element of it, would that not just increase the oil prices? That would cause it to go above the barriers that you're talking about. Yeah, so whenever we get the announcement, you have an event that drives the prices up significantly, blows through it. And then a movie that kind of gets the prices back down or an announcement or a Laurel and Hardy show where everyone says, you said this, I didn't say this. So, you know, we enter into one of those. But to me, we're getting close to something substantive, substantive. Don't have to say something substantial needs to be announced. And my only pushback on that on my own analysis here is that I do believe greater powers are manufacturing a global reset. And all of the powers, whether it be banking and financial powers, whether it be military budgets, whether it be technical police and surveillance state, whether it be Russia, whether it be China, whether it be Iran, all of those powers can kind of allow this to go on and create an absolute humanitarian crisis and disaster. And we're starting to see on the media kind of that COVID style of thing. We're seeing in India that the price of propane gas, which is like those canisters the power, all the street food. That's going up 4x. So that's bankruptcy for those businesses, for those small businesses. We're seeing the supply chains around semi-conductive chips in terms of Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan. So I think they've got a big thing for us. We're going to get that. But I think maybe it goes on for longer because they want to manufacture a deeper crisis. Yeah, yeah. And wouldn't that be, if that's the case, which I agree with, I think that is the aim. If that's the case, would they not want the, they would do another bomb in a campaign and it may go on for a lot longer because if you basically continue this current situation, let's say for another week or two, then you do a bombing campaign and a fight for like a month, maybe even whatever you can do, whatever your capacity is. The current capacity seems larger than the original capacity. So they went for 39 days. So you could go for another 39, 40 days, maybe longer. And then you go back into this ceasefire phase again. You do that for long enough and you basically get the complete, as you, as you mentioned, the complete destruction of society, this kind of surveillance, Palantir type, you saw in the alleged attempted assassination, J.D. Vance was removed before President Trump, right? So that kind of shows the psychology of either he's really important or he's the real president or whatever it is. So quite clearly that technocratic aspect is more important than getting to a deal or a ceasefire based on what you're saying, right? Isn't it funny, Salomon, that we've hit a phase with these false flags that we've been talking for about half an hour and there was a meant to be an assassination attempt on the president of the United States and we didn't even talk about it because virtually no one believes it. That's kind of the stage that we've hit now in terms of the clown show. Yeah. And look, yes, I do think there is a very evil agenda that's at work here and it concerns me significantly. So that's all that's happening when I have my analytical hat. Now if I step aside from that and put my humanitarian hat on, this is the poorest in society that are impacted by this. You know, in Southeast Asia, you know, Japan will be fine, Taiwan will be fine, South Korea will be fine. They'll figure out how to either sell their bonds, get an FX swap line, more line with China or more like whatever they're going to do. But it's the poorest in society that are going to, they're already having another yet another crisis. And I can't help but think that this is population control, taking the most unproductive from society in the moment when there is a aging population and a pension crisis and just like COVID, I'm really concerned about what they're actually doing here. And I've hit a stage in life where I think they're perfectly capable of doing the most evil things. And so the developed countries, they're going to pay higher prices, they're going to sell their assets if they're on a deep in debt, if they're on you will own nothing and be happy. But when it comes to Vietnam, when it comes to Philippines, when it comes to the underclass in UAE, the underclass in Cambodia, Hong Kong, you know, these places, even like Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, all of them, Philippines, Indonesia, and even, you know, the in America, you know, the parts of the population that have been forgotten, they've lost their jobs, their homeless, they're on the streets, they're addicted to drugs, they were just holding on. Now their rents going up, their energy prices going up across England, you know, it's, we're just going deeper and deeper and deeper into this K shaped economy. And to me, we're hitting the breaking point where that class, you know, they, they, they, they, they will coordinate, they will organize, we're starting to see across America, warehouses being burnt down, you know, that we'll get more and more of this civil unrest and my, my, my, the sad part is, is that even if we don't get it, I think CIA, Mossad, MI6, the deep state, they'll manufacture it anyway. They're doing color, color revolutions in the West because every single contract is going to the new privatized US government, which is Paladir. I mean, the Department of, the US Department of Agriculture, signing agreements, owning all the farming data, the food supply data, aggregating all of it, every single department across Europe, across UK, across United States, we are handing over power to, you know, Palantir, AI, we're building our social credit scores and there's more and more programmable money technology that is going to be utilized in order to fix some of these financial disasters because they're not going to let the system crash. They're going to bail it out and you're going to pay for it and everyone's going to pay through it through higher prices. That's going to increase and that's going to disproportionately benefit the asset holders, which is a smaller and smaller class and the underclass are just hitting breaking point if they weren't a breaking point already. So it's really sad. No, no, completely agree with you, Sam and Sam and thanks for taking a time out to Jonas, really appreciate you analysis. I think people learn a lot from this stream, especially in terms of everything related to op-ed, op-ed, but everything else we discussed as well.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The UAE has decided to leave OPEC, a major shift in global oil dynamics.
  2. The UAE has been building alternative financial and trade systems, including integrating into China’s payment system (SIFS) and becoming a crypto hub.
  3. The UAE is the third largest Bitcoin miner globally, after Iran and Russia, using cheap nuclear energy.
  4. The UAE sought an FX swap line from the Federal Reserve, which signals a desire for monetary leverage and reduces reliance on the petrodollar.
  5. The UAE’s move is linked to its rivalry with Saudi Arabia over OPEC quotas, its role in BRICS, and its involvement in gold corridors that circumvent sanctions.
  6. The exit is expected to lower oil prices by increasing supply from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and potentially Iran.
  7. OPEC is criticized as a price-fixing cartel that artificially inflates oil prices and blocks alternative energy development.

Summary:

The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC marks a significant geopolitical shift, driven by its long-term strategy to build alternative financial and trade systems. The UAE has integrated into China’s payment system, become a crypto hub, and is a major Bitcoin miner. It also sought an FX swap line from the Federal Reserve, indicating a move away from the petrodollar system.

This exit is partly due to a rivalry with Saudi Arabia over OPEC quotas, as the UAE seeks to increase its oil production capacity. The move is linked to broader trends, including the rise of BRICS, gold corridors that circumvent sanctions, and the development of central bank digital currencies. The UAE’s infrastructure investments and desire for greater autonomy in the post-war order suggest it aims to become a key player in a multipolar world.

OPEC is criticized as a price-fixing cartel that artificially inflates oil prices and blocks alternative energy, but the UAE’s exit could lead to lower oil prices and increased competition. This decision reflects a complex interplay of economic, geopolitical, and financial factors, signaling a potential end to the petrodollar era and a shift toward a more decentralized global financial system.

FAQs

The UAE has decided to leave OPEC, which is a significant shift in global oil and financial dynamics.

The UAE likely left due to long-term quota disputes with Saudi Arabia and a strategic move to assert its own path, aiming for increased oil production capacity and influence in a new world order.

An FX swap line lets a country exchange its local currency for newly created dollars from the Federal Reserve, helping to prevent it from selling US bonds and equities. The UAE sought this to leverage the US while maintaining its financial stability.

The UAE has built infrastructure like the Embryg central bank digital currency network and gold corridors with China, enabling trade circumvention of sanctions and reducing reliance on the petrodollar.

It could lead to lower oil prices as the UAE, along with Saudi Arabia and Iran, may increase supply, especially after potential sanction relief for Iran.

OPEC is a cartel that fixes oil prices through quotas, often criticized as price fixing that harms global markets. It props up wealthy states but is seen as a mafia-like entity blocking alternative energy.

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