Go back

Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño

76m 31s

Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño

The podcast episode analyzes the Trump-Xi summit, emphasizing potential for economic cooperation to avert conflict. China agreed to key security points but warned on Taiwan, while committing to major U.S. purchases. Participants view economic entanglement as crucial for peace, with China needing energy and tech, and the U.S. seeking market access. Salesforce’s Benioff explains his China strategy through Alibaba due to data laws, contrasting with Tesla’s direct presence. The midterms are seen as more shaped by gerrymandering and political spending than the summit, with voter focus on inflation and jobs. The discussion highlights a bipolar world division, with both nations incentivized to share resources and avoid static-pie conflict, leveraging AI and automation for abundance.

Transcription

14272 Words, 77178 Characters

English
All right, everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world, the All-in podcast episode 273. It's a huge week. Sacks is out. So we got to get Mark Benioff, CEO of Salesforce. I'm the only one left here. You're the only one left. That's why that's how I made it on. No software CEOs, right? To China? There's no software CEOs in China. Interesting. But did you get the invite? What's your status with this administration? Because you were obviously very famous for being a Democrat on the left. I'm not a Democrat on the left. I'd never have been. Jason, you're talking about. You don't know what? You don't need to draw these folks. And now you're trying in Trump's camp. What is it? Listen, the number one thing is, hey, I'm here to support the country. What I do. Okay. So you're right in the middle. You have an allegiance to America. I hope so. Yeah. I'm not a Democrat or a Republican. I am an American. Okay. I like it. Benioff got the invite to the two hottest tickets. He got the invite to Windsor Castle in Tales. And then he got the invite when Prince Charles came here too. I saw he was in Tales and too. And also we were at that Saudi dinner too. Aren't you there, Jamaf? I did not go to that one. All right. Well, we have a big docket here. The Trump, she summit has begun. That is the number one story right now. After a two-month delay because of the war in Iran, this is the first visit to China since 2017. Seventh face-to-face meeting for Trump and President Xi. There are 12 hours, 15 hours ahead of us today. Thursday was officially day one. Here's what happened. China agreed that the straight-of-war moves should remain open with no military commitment and that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. So we're in sync on that. On Taiwan, this is a little spicy. She warned that quote, "If handled poorly, the two countries will collide or even clash, putting the entire US-China relationship in an extremely dangerous situation." Polymarket says Taiwan is safe for 20-26. Only 6% chance China invades this year on 23 million volume, which is a lot of volume. 17% chance. Roughly triple. That's something happens by the end of 2027. There's been a lot of debate. Some people say it will happen after Trump is out of office. Some people think it's going to happen while he's in office on trade. She committed to buy more soybeans, US oil, LNG, and 200 Boeing jets. She said the talks laid out a vision for constructive strategic and stable ties. Trump was effusive in his praise for his friendship, giving the disclaimer that people don't like it when he praises she. Let's stop here and have a bit of a discussion. Friedberg, you have been a bit obsessed with this relationship and the bipolar nature of it. What are your thoughts here? And what is the goal for Trump? What is winning for Trump coming under this? What is winning for Xi? I mean, Xi made comments in his opening remarks that it would be ideal if the United States and China could avoid the Fucidities trap, which as you'll recall, we talked about with Graham Allison and we've talked about several times over the last few years that as a rising power meets a kind of declining power, there's always some moment where you end up in this kind of state of conflict. And the question is, can the US and China avoid conflict and find a path to cooperation, which has happened a few times in history when we found ourselves in this moment, but doesn't often happen. And I think the way to kind of think about the opportunity is if you're in a resource expansive world where you're increasing productivity and increasing production globally at an accelerating pace, perhaps there's less of a reason to have conflict. Perhaps there's a way that both societies, both countries can increase the quality of life for their people without taking it away from the other side. And in a world where you're more resource constrained or resource static, that becomes less possible. You have to fight and grab land and grab territory and grab resources from the other side. And it seems like in this moment when we are seeing these extraordinary technology shifts unlocked by AI and automation and biotech and all of these kind of moments of what could be true abundance ahead of us, it seems like the perfect moment to say, hey, maybe the world can be more multipolar, doesn't need to be unipolar, doesn't need to be bipolar, but everyone can participate in the expansion of the pie. And I think that that's kind of the idealistic way to look at the opportunity in front of the administration and Chinese leadership right now. Is there a way to kind of look at the next 30 years and ask the question, how do we all share proportionally in growing the pie and not find ourselves in a moment of conflict where we assume the pie is static? That's I think hopefully the message that comes out of this. From an administration political perspective, it just seems like this is going to be a major coup for the president. If he can walk away with a series of trade deals with China that increase job security, increase prosperity, increase income levels, increase investment in America and American jobs, it would be a huge win. And I think that's the tactical stuff that people will be truly looking for. And I think the big strategic question which I care most about, which is avoiding conflict, is there a way we can chart an economic and cooperative path that doesn't involve eating each other and involves sharing in a bigger pie? Tramatwy is Trump bringing all of these CEOs with him and what does success look like coming out of this meeting? I think that you find a resolution and a path forward with China through economic cooperation. It's the largest consumer economy in the world. It's still largely closed off. And so I think what this is was about bringing some amount of financial firepower with them so that they could start to penetrate that market, planes, cars, chips, you know, very much hard equipment type stuff. I've said this before but I think the Chinese are very much a top-down, confusion, societal philosophy. Whereas Americans are much more bottoms up kind of an individualist construction. The fact that we're so different actually gives us a lot of room to find cooperation and not find conflict. And I think at the center of that is economic cooperation. I had a friend call me this morning, very prominent Democrat. And he was the one that called out the media, which I was surprised by. And he said, "You know, the media gets it all wrong because they're talking about why is he bringing these CEOs?" And instead the reality is that the simplest and surest path to no conflict to taunt with China is economic entanglement. And it has to be bidirectional because really for so many years it's been one way where they're sending us the cheap goods that they wanted. So I think strategically it's good. And I think, you know, I'll just take a slightly different take on what Friedrich said. I think behind closed doors are probably just figuring out how to divide the pie. Unpack that for a second, divide which pie? The globe, the economy, the Western hemisphere versus the China. China still needs a lot of energy. They also need a lot of critical technologies that America provides. And so I think that there is a trade there. And the quid pro quo is there are certain regions of the world where we want them to de-escalate their participation in. Central South America being probably the most important, and then the second is probably in the Middle East. And then maybe the third is just to find some reasonable view of the Asia-Pac region together. And I think there's a trade there to be done. And in that you kind of start to carve up the world into a pretty easily identifiable bipolar construction. They also mark need customers to buy their goods. And we've had a bit of a mixed signals there. Tower of Sovereignty last year sticking it to China in a pretty hard way. The decoupling after COVID, hey, we need to be independent energy, PPE, drugs, chips from China. Now we're kind of saying, hey, let's come to the table and build connective tissue. So sort that out for us on a business level. Should the two countries be deeply entwined? And then how do we manage having too much dependency on China? Well, you heard it today from President Xi when he said he wants a wider door. And that means that he wants the door of business to open even wider between the two countries. We have our absolute best salespeople there, not just our president, who has to be one of the best salespeople I've ever met. But also we've got Elon, we've got Jensen, Selling Chips, Kelly Orteburg, Selling Plains. Kelly Selling Plains, we've already sold 200. He wants to sell five of our services. Brian is selling soybeans, Brian Sykes, the CEO of Cargo. Cargo is the world's largest private company based in Minneapolis. And he is going to come away selling a lot of soybeans. So we have a you go through the list of the CEOs. Each one is our best salesperson in this category. And they're going to come back with orders. And it's going to be amazing. And by the way, I think you said it very well. You know, this idea of business is this kind of greatest platform for change. They are working together like never before. Don't forget, this isn't Trump's and she's first meeting. These guys really like each other. They have very connected together. You can see they're smiling with each other. They're very they have a sales orientation. So I expect a lot of order books to come back. I have a question for you. Are you allowed to sell software in China? We Well, with the right, the Chinese have a lot of data residency laws. So, you know, we do it is we don't have any offices or employees in China we never have. The only time we end up with any residue in China is when we buy a company and they have a presence over there and then we have to divest from it. We have an exclusive partnership with Ali Balba. Everything just goes through them and we don't do anything in China. Is it significant growing? Is it what percentage of your work? Oh, it's great. Yeah, it's great. You know, we have it's a great partnership. Key customers of Salesforce like Louis Vuitton or Laura Piana, I know Chamophla's, Laura Piana. And you know, Laura Piana, Selvete, Sweaters in China and then, you know, in all other stores all over the world they use Salesforce. But in China, it's Salesforce on Ali Balba. It's still your code, but then it resides in their servers for data residency stuff. Their data residency, their partnership, it's a totally unique relationship. The only place in the world that we do such a thing. Yeah, and it has to be all the data has to be kept in China. All the data has to be accessible by the CCP. That's why it's so extraordinary, by the way, what Elon has. You know, Elon has Tesla in China, no partnership. He's the only one. He has a phenomenal relationship with Xi. When you look at Xi and Elon together, notice how deferential and respectful they are of each other. And here is these AI cars with all these cameras. American made, you know, Chinese factories driving around China. That is pretty incredible. How do you think he pulled that off? Is that just a one off exception? I think Elon's the greatest salesman in the world. That's how. I mean, the cynical take on it, Tomah would be, they wanted him there and they wanted to study the company and the innovation and they have now become the biggest competitor with their EVs. And so it is a pretty cooperative, I guess. It would be the cynical way to do it. I want one of those new BYD golf, you know, what do you call those with the doors that flip up? Going, going. I want one of those goal wing BYDs. They have some cool cars. Have you seen those? They're cool, but they're not safe. They're incredible. They're talking in this, in this, they said they're talking about bringing some of those cars to the US. That would be incredible. I would hollow out the entire automotive industry here. If we had $20,000, $30,000 cars from China, it would be the end of the US automotive industry overnight. And Tim Cook's there. He has to store all his data there. That's been a pretty controversial issue for him because Friedberg, if anybody, has private information or is a dissident, Tim Cook has to give that data over to the Chinese Communist Party. How do you think this plays in America, vis-a-vis the midterms, Friedberg? Americans feel ignored, inflation over 3%. And they look at the Iran War as a betrayal by President Trump and they look at China as not material to their well-being. So when you look at Trump being on a six-month timeline for the midterms and he's only got two more years in office after that, you got, she who's working off of a hundred-year playbook, how does that dynamic play out with Trump and the midterms and his core constituency, MAGA, which is now evolving into America first, America only, and this kind of is rubbing that group of people the wrong way? I think the second and third-order effects of anything that comes out of China is what's going to be most consequential to the average voter, which is job security and income security and income growth, and then cost of living impact. Cost of living impact would be, if there can be some deflationary effect from a trade deal that makes access to goods lower price for Americans and then anything that America is exporting, there's increased demand. Like there's a follow-on effect to the soybean export market, there's a follow-on effect obviously to the oil export market. There's a follow-on effect to, for example, technology and software being exported, so that increases economic productivity in the U.S. and increases job security income. And then the other side of the trade deal is, can we get stuff that Americans really care about and make it cheaper? And people now buy stuff at the store that drops in price by 30%, 40%, where we've kind of tariffed and reduced trade, that increases the price of things. So if those deals kind of get worked out, people will see things get cheaper at the store and they'll feel good about their income security, and I think that could be positive. I think that's what's ultimately going to make people make the blue-red decision when they go to the polls in November. That's the schizophrenic nature of this chimoff. We have Americans who very much want sheep goods from China, and then we have last year all these tariffs being put on, and we have this great decoupling. So how do you handicap the midterms, Trump's timeline, and she's timeline, and what their goals are? And then I guess we'll get to time one after that. I don't know. I think it's a little bit above my pay grade. But what I will say is that the midterms, I think, are probably going to swing more based on these recent gerrymandering rulings from the Supreme Court and what happened in the Virginia Supreme Court and what's going to happen in the state legislatures of these red states and some of these blue states more than what's going to come out of this summit with President Xi. So let me just put that over here. And I think that money is getting organized. There was an article in the New York Times this week, which really surprised me, but the largest owner in the selection cycle is in recent Horowitz. Yeah, what is that about? Yeah. I think it's because they're trying to establish themselves as part of the financial firmament of America, which I think strategically as a business makes a lot of sense. Like they're in the AUM business, right? So they can't stop at 100 billion of AUM. They're marching towards a trillion. They're going to be the next blackstone, which I think is an incredible feat. And they're building a juggernaut of a business. But I think they also realize that politics is now a permanent part of that if they're going to be investing in higher quantum, more geopolitically influenced parts of the capital cycle and parts of the economy. So I think the midterms are largely that the money that's going to be raised plus the gerrymandering that will get done and undone over the next few months. Again, I think the Chinese and the Americans have a very strong incentive to kind of divide up the world. I think the future at this point, you have these critical resource inputs. China has a stranglehold. You have energy and intelligence, AI, where America has a stranglehold on one and an effective stranglehold on the other, which is energy. And as long as you can negotiate what a reasonable give and take is, I think they're just going to find common ground like this China really need to be in Chile and Venezuela. And Panama, probably not. Does America have to have an incredibly strong point of view about the straight of Malacca? Probably not. And so there's probably a trade to be done so that we can get their rare earths, they can get some more oil. Everybody can be happy and we can all find abundance. Yeah, the key issue here is China is, most people are, you know, China phobic, but China has serious systematic issues with population, with their real estate, with their GDP. All of this is in decline. And I think she, most of all, is concerned about another Tiananmen Square. If he doesn't get more people working, they've had the largest growth of any middle class, you know, in history, they have the largest middle class in the world. I think you were sort of referencing that mark with luxury goods and luxury goods providers are going there. But it's tenuous people. And that's the number one, by the way, that is the number one point of focus of President Xi. President Xi's focus has been getting 500 million people from poverty into the middle class. It's not exactly how we think about the world in the United States. That's the main focus of the political leader and he's achieved that. That has been an incredible accomplishment. But it's at risk right now because their GDP is falling, they need their factories to operate. They're undercut by other regions. And then, of course, Taiwan is what they want most of all and supremacy in their part of the world. I'm not convinced of that, actually. I think more. I mean, I think we just kind of said it to summarize, they want to have economic success. They want to continue to grow their middle class. They want to continue to have a healthy economy. They want more trade. I thought it was interesting that they're talking about Trump. He's talking about not only having the board of peace now, he wants a board of trade. That was a discussion we've never heard before today. Then we have Xi say, and I want the wider door. Then we have all these folks there selling their products. Two people we didn't mention, the CEO Visa and the CEO of MasterCard are on the trip. Now, why is that? Because if you look at commerce in China, it is dominated by companies like Ali Baba and these organizations who use these super apps, it's not really all the way open for a Visa and a MasterCard. That would be incredible for those executives. In the same way that we want to sell airplanes, we want to sell chips and video. The Qualcomm CEO, Cristiano is also there. We want to sell soybeans. We want to sell payments services. We want to sell everything. more economic collaboration and cooperation you can get between the two countries, the more peace you're going to have. I agree. So more than 100%. I agree. Three hundred questions, Mark. Should we be selling them the latest chips, yes or no, in your mind? I think it's irrelevant at this point. I think that the Chinese models are as competitive as these US models, and they've learned to make these models without having the highest end chips. I think the highest end chips is kind of more of an ego gratification for us. We have blackwell, we have this, we have that. But when you look at their models, their models are excellent. They fast follow us. The best models we have in the month of the day and now. Should we just sell it to them since they're figuring it out anyway, Mark? We probably should just sell whatever we can at this point. And I think that, as I said, I think the more economic cooperation and collaboration is better. I think that this, I think Taiwan, it's kind of a monster. But we'll sort of back to our agenda. Freeberg, your take on chips. Should we sell them the latest chips and then Chema? I want to get the answer to that question from each of you. I think it's inevitable that they get there. By the way, I do think this is one of the key aspects of this deal. I've said this before, but maybe Taiwan becomes less relevant to the US and to China as both China and the US mainland fab. So as we build out our own manufacturing capacity here in the US, and I know we've struggled and there are fits and starts and issues with it and whatnot. But the TSMC facility in Arizona is running. They're printing and if it works and they figure out how to scale it, there'll be other facilities in the US. And then China's mainlanding with Huawei, standing up a lot of facilities. They've got a multi, I think I talked about this on one of the shows, a multi-decadeck a billion dollar government investment in ensuring competitiveness, not just with fabs, but also with semiconductor manufacturing equipment so that they don't get cut off on the supply chain with companies like ASML blocking sales into mainland. So as they build out their own semiconductor capital equipment systems and their own fabs, does Taiwan really matter? Is there really that much of a security risk to the United States and to China in that sense? And perhaps what everyone's focused on, which is this pivot point around Taiwan, maybe it's not that the US is selling Taiwan down the river, but it's just that no one gives a sh*t anymore. So there may be this kind of cultural moment for China where they want to, at some point, say, by 2040, which I think is what I've heard, they want to be able to kind of bring Taiwan fully into the sphere, maybe the US shouldn't care that much at that point from an economic and security perspective. So I think that's one of the things that's happening that that may be the people are going to get their chips to them and it will demotivate the TSMC or the capture of those fans by the Chinese. Put it this way. I think the more the global productivity index can climb, the better off all humans will be. So the question is, do you really want the West to see their productivity index climb and then you're effectively forcing conflict and forcing issues with the East? Or if we all grow our productivity index, we all make more stuff. Everyone benefits. Everyone has better jobs. Everyone makes more money. Everyone has access to more stuff. The cost of goods comes down for everyone. Doesn't that make the world a safer and more secure place? Sure. So I think this idea that like technology should be held to one side of the world and not given to the other side of the world is inevitably going to lead to conflict or increase the probability of conflict. Whereas if you let technology diffuse and proliferate, everyone benefits and conflict indices go down. It's because we're the reason to do it. Everybody has access to it. So then it becomes. It gives everyone a higher standard of living. Sure. Give everyone's economy a boost and you give everyone less reason to fight with each other. So since you went there with Taiwan, should we take our arms cells off of the table Friedberg and should we ask China to not sell arms to Iran? Yes, we should ask China to not sell arms to Iran. Yeah. Okay. I don't know what there is. What is there to talk about there? Because I think what she wants is for us to not sell arms to Taiwan. So would you make that trade, I guess is what I'm saying. Oh, yeah. That's a good question. I think in that context, that's a new one. That's why I bring it up because that seems to be generally your right. Yeah. I mean, generally, that's probably a trade that should be kind of a trade. Do the deal. So you say make the trade. Yeah. Chimoff. I mean, I kind of know. So in the last few months from Taiwan, not being an important moment of conversation, the way it is today, why 18 months? Because we are at a point where we're probably 1 to 2 nanometers away from being able to do what we need Taiwan to strategically do for us. And so as we scale up our chipfabs, as we get more capacity and interestingly, there are these orthogonal technologies being developed. I don't know if you guys saw, but neural link was showcasing now a machine that is literally operating at the almost nanometer scale to do the brain operation for the implantation all automatically. So when you have the dexterity and the capability mechanically to make these things, the real reason then is a very different one than what it is today. Today it's economic. And if you take that off the table, I think we'll have a very different attitude to Taiwan. That's number one. Number two, sell the chips. And the reason we should sell the chips is we want Nvidia to win. We do not want to give enough oxygen for Huawei to then all of a sudden emerge and have a version of a chip that works. And what Mark said is totally right. These models are catching up. They're almost at the same pace. So the more important thing Jason is probably we should all agree is just like let's have a reasonable KYC for how the models get used so that somebody in a basement doesn't cook up some bio weapon. Meanwhile, sell the chips for a little bit. Let Jensen win. I'd rather he win than Huawei win. Mark, I'm going to give you the last word, but I'm going to for sure to answer a hard question. China sets up a blockade around Taiwan and they decide they're taking it. Should the US defend it? Yes or no? I've said this for years. I don't agree with Neil Ferguson on that point. I think that this is a nonsense issue. I think China and Taiwan will reconcile. I think that well, first of all, I do want to schedule the Chimoff for that neural link. I'm going to do this Tuesday. Did you do this block? We can drill your brain. Chimoff, can I get you in? What are you trying to do? Put some empathy into Chimoff. I talked to Elon. He said he does. He gave me just a little right in. There's a boom and then we'll get hooked up. It is the craziest thing. I know. I got you scheduled at five o'clock on Tuesday. Chimoff. I'm going to hold your hand if you're too nervous. Yes, sir. I'm going to get the environment. I'm going to get a heart. If I want a more competitive Chimoff, it's giving a heart for a better show. Absolutely. It would be incredible. Yes. And I would laugh and I would giggle. I would get into showtos. Free break, I know you're big on the showtales. If I only had a brain. A heart? A brain? What's the third one? If I only had a neural link. We're going to give you courage, rebirth. Okay, move on. All right, let's move on here. Your bitch. By the way, I took his mom's kids. To mom stayed home. I took his kids to the Withers of Oz at the sphere. It was incredible. You haven't shown it? Yeah. I took something in rich with my kids. It hit the craft table. No, I'll be honest with you. I get a little freaked out in large groups of people. Then you come. Yeah, I get a no, just like when there's a lot of people, I get very nervous. Yeah. I don't know why. Is this because of your newfound celebrity? Is that the issue? No, I always tend to like, no, I don't even want to go there. I just have these bad thoughts of like, oh my god, what if something happens? How do we get out in like, oh, turn us the tack? How do you get it to the ex? Panic disorder. I don't know. Yeah, exactly. You have panic disorder. Panic disorder. I get a little wind, so anyway, here's that a great time. Great show. Tony Robbins lose very near you, Shamakh. Don't you think we can get that to happen? Let's get Tony Robbins in there. Clear that blockage. You're a Tony Robbins guy, Mark. Why are you so into Tony Robbins? I love Tony Robbins. I had him at my conference this week. He was incredible. Actually, he did incredible presentations for power. He unlocked for you your success. He claims to that he has you on the roster of $50,000 a year CEO. I am the number one fan of Tony Robbins. So, I mean, one percentage of your success is attributed to Tony's mentorship. Hey, if it wasn't for Tony Robbins, I don't think there would be a sales force. So, I can you actually know what? No, no, no, no. He'll do it. Can you tell us like what? Like, what? Like, what were those big kind of blockages and how did you, how did he help you or how did you work through it? Just focusing on, hey, the questions, you know, the quality or questions is the quality of your life. It's that insight. And just are you asking yourself the right questions? What do you want? What's important to you? How are you getting it? What is preventing you from having it? How will you know that you have it? Just no one had ever said that to me and then it was just like clear to me, wait, I need to write that down. Like, what do I really want right now? What is my point of focus? And that is what gave me motivation as soon as I got that clarity. I mean, a lot of us do it automatically, but that's not where I was when I was a kid. That's right. Did you run across the coals? Did you do any of that kind of stuff? Oh, I have many times. Really? Yeah, of course. Okay. There it is, folks. Absolutely. We had Tony on the show. I tried to get in there and understand his psychology, but he just had us do breathing exercises. All right. The All-In Summit is happening again, fifth year in a row. Wow. We've been doing this for a while. All-in.com/events September 13th, 14th and 15th. We'll have you back Mark in your six, but when you score so highly on a keynote We give you two years off so that we can build up the anticipation so coming in 2027 Our guy Mark banding off but for this year all in comm slash events. Okay topic two AIs impact Oh, I'm real quick. Can I just do a quick PSA a Public service announcement public service announcement. Yes Nick just pull up this link this dog named scooter needs a home. Oh, promise my wife. I do this don't get don't get mad at me This dog named scooter needs a home. He's in Baldwin Park dogs about to die Lives in Baldwin Park at the animal care and control. They're overwhelmed in LA There are so many homeless street dogs that are being collected. They're all being put to sleep. Wow someone give his dog a home Gorgeous dog. It's a good link link will be on the YouTube channel. Thank you very much Are you getting a little emotional freeback about the stock being put down? I just don't like these you know all these street dogs like they didn't choose that situation They were in and then they all end up kind of getting pulled in by animal care and control and Then they all get put to sleep kind of sucks. You're a dog guy. Come on. You got to have a heart No, I have a big heart. Shamaff come on $10,000 to keep these dogs alive for another week. Can we count on you for that donation? Any pure bread white golden retrievers in that No, they're just months just months. We have a cat that we got at the shelter actually Cut of her Walked into the shelter learning so looking for a cat all of a sudden we're in the shelter this cat's like coming at you know my kids And all of a sudden there okay, we'll take this cat. What is this cat's name? This cat's name is cloud Clouch our cat. Wow The way of cloud the cat. Oh That's awesome. All right, AI's impact on software Rippling through the market mark. You're on the front lines here. Thank you for reminding me. Yeah Well, I mean in pain and suffering are lessons right? I think the Buddha and Tony Robbins both taught us that and the only way to the other side is through as you know mark So Salesforce down it whopping 37% 90 billion losses for you service now 42% workday 45% 180 billion in marketcaps been lost and The assumption mark is that AI is going to make it unnecessary for you to use slack or Salesforce or HubSpot Whatever it happens to be that you'll just ask your AI to solve this for you and we'll all look at a piece of glass and have no Actual software the AI will just tell us what to do what your response to the fear the criticism and how are you managing this massive change internally? You're right. It's the Sess Pocclips I mean, it's not my first Sess Bocclips honestly, but it's the current Sess Bocclips So we are all now drinking the Salesforce Ss brilas and We actually have a pet Sasquatch as well. Yeah, well a little more sassy. That's what I would say You bring the Sass to Sass we've got a great Sassy you know, and then you've always been a sassy yeah And then number two is look the market is re-rated. It's not a mystery everybody knows you know You guys have been talking about it for a while. I've been living it So the market software markets re-rated it happens every now and then there are cycles You know, I've been doing sales for for 27 years enterprise software for 40 and the market's re-rated so You mentioned HubSpot. They're trading at two-time sales. I've never seen that before They just had a great quarter. We saw a lot of great quarters I looked at the top 10 major enterprise software companies. They all had great quarters and They're all trading at two-time sales. So Why? Because of everything you just said there's like you know a hypnosis around AI and you know We haven't seen it show up in the numbers yet if it shows up in the numbers Maybe people will be right right now all we know is There's still a lot of enterprise software being sold in the world. So you've been through this It's not your first time This is not my first Sass box lips. I mean I remember the Sass box lips of 2020 When COVID happened and all of a weird everything collapsed There was the great Sass box what you know in 2016. What's that? In all sincerity. What's your strategy and how do you deal with you know what your internal team? Obviously they are compensated through you know stock and this is headwind and you have competition for employees from open AI and Thropic and SpaceX. So how do you deal with Rallying the troops and then how do you develop a strategy? Well, you're right. I mean, it's a lot easier to be a private company right now where you don't have to be Rationalized by the public markets if you're in the public markets and you get re-rated That's the reality of being in the public markets and I think that for what I tell my employees right? I just told my employees is look you can't get drunk on the stock price if you are like focused on today all the time And that is how you're getting you know your emotional state. It is not gonna work for you. You have to find a different anchor So I try not to pay really a lot of attention to it I'm focused on my customer success hours our revenue look we'll do over 46 billion this year more than 16 billion and cash flow We have more than 83,000 employees. These are the things that I'm focused on What is the level of customer success that we're delivering? That's a really important. I can't control the stock price. There's nothing I can do and for our employees They can't control it either that they need to believe in the company and the quality of the success they're delivering to customers in the long term And then you look at the market you look at these other companies not just us They're doing great and I mean I saw some great numbers But it doesn't really matter the markets re-rated Well, you've got all that free cash flow. You've been great at acquisitions. So I'm sure you're I bought some great companies by the way Everything's a little cheaper. I like that. Yeah, Chimath what's your take on this you've been? pretty critical of the SaaS space in previous episodes pointing out hey How durable are these revenues? So what's your take? I? Think the low end of the market is basically finished. I think there there is no safe space I think the high end of the market where mark operates where The large monoliths operate is quite safe and the tell was this week The the deployment company deal Basically shows you what open AI is running into So, you know, you have to put in four billion dollars you get all of these folks you gave them a 17 and a half percent preferred guaranteed return for what? Essentially to stand up a competitor to Ernst & Young Anderson, Deloitte, PWC, Cognizant, etc If you just look at that that doesn't actually mathematically make that much sense if you look at what those companies are Actually trading at but why is open AI doing this? I think why is because at the high end of the market where all the action is What people are finding is hey hold on a second? This is a lot harder than we thought it's not like Put in a put in a prompt and beep that boop it all works. It's not how it works Hmm, and so I think I think we're a little oversoled and I now I think this consolidation and the re-rating can happen in the opposite direction. So what is the opposite trade? The opposite trade is who has constructive net dollar retention who has negative churn that's been really predictable Which is a way of saying who has the best relationships? Meaning they're inside the CXOs and the C Suite they have relationships with the CEOs and they're trusted and They've been around for 20 years Those guys I think are positioned to crush because eventually Jason the next trade that has to happen is when the public markets Become a little bit less breathless about AI and they ask one simple question Okay guys, you've spent three trillion dollars in the last four years. What is the ROI of these tokens? Hmm, and what's gonna happen is they're gonna have to go to guys like Mark and other people and say Please sound my tokens And that's the next shoot a drop if you if you had to ask me so I think you're gonna see these revenues Which are like way out of whack like the multiples on revenue multiples on assets multiples of they're not even multiples if you but they are Those will come way back down And I think these go back up and you'll find a balance. Yeah, and you've initiated What could only be described as an unprecedented massive stock buyback mark 50 billion? I think it's the one of the largest in history. Yeah, we were you know, we we want to buy back as much as we can And I would just say that you know look at a high level look There's awesome new capabilities like these coding agents are awesome and the topic is awesome like I am gonna Probably use 300 million dollars of ontropic this year at Salesforce Coding everything's gonna be cheaper to make it's more efficient I can do things that I just could not do before I can go faster than ever before I can implement my software and sell it at the same time I've never been able to do that before I can break through obstacles that I've had you know just by focusing Because I have coding agents and humans together working together today I have humans agents and headless platforms all interoperating never before So the opportunity for my own company and the efficiency that I have in my own company in service and support in distribution and Marketing across the board is unprecedented what I can do for our customers unprecedented and you know to that point my gosh Have you seen a profit? I mean it is a rocket ship that will not stop because You can use this product to do these incredible amazing things and then uncompiment it with platforms like ours It's you know, it's a It's impossible to describe what we're going to be able to do for customers. It's going to be awesome. And never waste a crisis. You've been super focused on the efficiency of the company in headcount, share buybacks, and I'm guessing you're looking at M&A. So it's not your first time. It's just finished up. One of our biggest deals ever in Formatica, I think it was $8 or $9 billion. It's been awesome because none of this stuff works if you don't have context. The AI is very probabilistic. That is, it can kind of figure things out, but it needs to be grounded in real data. And it needs to have that semantic layer. It needs to be locked down into the truth, into a single source of truth, or it just cannot work well. And so our customers want more harmonized data, federated data, integrated data. So we bought in Formatica. Our customers want our apps to use those large language models to be able to provide not just automation to their employees, but also to their agents, just like we just said. So like if you call 1-800-0 software right now for the first time in 27 years, you talk to Agent Force. Hey, Agent Force, what's happening? But then after it authenticates you and you get in the system and it doesn't know who you are, then boom, it'll all auto escalate you to a human being who says, oh, I can see everything you've been doing. Oh, yeah, you just need to resolve this, this, and that. And so that trinity of the phone, the web, and the human being are all together. It's all made possible by this AI. We just could never do that before. That is awesome. Was it controversial, Mark, to make Slack, Headless? Was that a big decision? Or was everybody kind of mostly on board with that? Well, we were the first to, you know, the way that our platform is architected in Shemoth, you know it so well, because you're coding agents. And the company you're building can run right on top of it and build awesome stuff also. So, you know, number one is we were the first with an XML API, a SOAP API, a REST API, now a CLAI API, MCP API. We always wanted to have a platform that had every API possible. And our apps are not hard coded where we had to cut the top off of them. They've always be embedded inside our platform. So now we can stream our apps out through a new API called AXL, and I can manifest it into any large language model or device or anything. And it just works better, actually. I think that, you know, when Jack Dorsey wrote that memo, Jake, and part of what he said is, he's going to try to run his company by building a world model. My initial thought was, well, where is the context, Mark, what you said before? Where is the semantic understanding to create a world model and a lot of it for a lot of companies actually in Slack? It's in Slack and email. Yeah, those two places. I showed you that Slackbot, Jason. I mean, you're getting them. Yeah, because you run your company on Slack, all your DMs, all your channels. We're reading that now through the AI. And we can tell you more about your business than you know, because Slackbot is reading stuff that, you know, nobody knew what was happening. Like I'm using that myself, but I can then connect it into other things. So I have the ability to go into Salesforce and Google and everything. And so when I'm on Slackbot, I can ask it any question about my company. What are my top five deals? What are, what are my employees upset about? What are the top three things I need to focus on? And then boom, I get the information because it has the data. I think you should really look at making Slack more open and cheaper and getting more of that context because there are limitations in terms of getting your data out based on like which plan you're on. It's just too convoluted. But once I upgraded to Gaire plan and you know, it's whatever, 612 of 18K for our small company, I was able to get more and more context to my open-claw, complexity computer, and clawed, and we're testing all of those. And today I wrote literally before I got on the show a new prompt that is every two hours in our Slack. Tell me what decisions are being made, who's making those decisions, and what you would hand it at those decisions. If you were my chief of staff, if you were a CEO or if you were a board member and created personas to now evaluate decision making going on. Just one minute. I have one minute. The new version of Slack, you're going to love adjacent. You know that open AI and then thropping and every AI company is standardized on Slack. And by the way, an our core sales cloud and service clouds as well. So I got to show you what we're doing. Yeah. So cool. So fun. What's your advice to, let's say you were running a software company that was like before the AI wave and your private, right? There's a bunch of these companies that were supposed to go public, didn't go public. What should they do? Like what do those boards do? What does it mean? Just like the next for them for all their tears. Because they're, I mean, I talked to the CEOs. They're crying with my market cap. I'm not getting paid for my work. Guys, grow up. You know, that's what I love about the public markets. They rationalize everything all the time. So great. Be in the public markets. You want to be in a private market. Your valuation is fantasy land until somebody's actually going to pay you. So I just tell them, hey, you got to focus on your revenue, focus on your customers, focus on your cash flow, focus on your profitability, focus on your innovation. How are you going to add value to your customers? That's what's really, truly important. Freiburg, any thoughts for me? We're doing a big sales force implementation at O'Hallow. And I would say that one of my observations over the last six months, because we've talked a lot about using these generative tools, is we've kind of dropped all the vertical software, but we're doubling down our investment in horizontal tools. So we're investing heavily in these platform capabilities that then we're able to build apps and workflows on top of them that are specific to our business, rather than try and buy an off-the-shelf app or workflow tool. So I think that there's kind of a really interesting moment right now where we talked about this last time. You could kind of discern between founder led and non-founder led enterprise software. I also think that there's this kind of vertical horizontal shift where they're kind of trading the same right now, but you could probably break them. You could break that trade. Everything does probably a good arbitrage there. I think everyone who wants to sell those potato sleeves seeds, you know, doesn't need some tools to sell them. But the thing that's kind of cool is, you know, we have 15,000 sales people now. So they're out there selling these products like Slack and selling to David and so worth. But here's the thing that's interesting. In the last 27 years, we calculated somewhere between 20 and 30 million people. We didn't call back. We did not call them back because we didn't have the people to do it. So just this week, I called back 50,000 people, you know, just through agents so I can qualify. I just bought a company called Qualified so I can qualify the agents, call people back, the BDR, the SDR function. I can go outbound. I can do things I can never do before. That is made possible by this AI automation linking it then to the apps. You can go to another level. Yeah. Okay. Breaking news. I want to get everybody's take on this open AI in a breaking news story is considering suing Apple over their chat GPT partnership. As we all know, two years ago, Apple and Open AI announced chat GPT would integrate into Siri, iOS, Mac OS. But according to Bloomberg, the deal has gone so poorly for Open AI that they might sue Apple for breach of contract. Here are Open AI's gripes Apple chat GPT integration within Siri requires users specifically say chat GPT to get results. We probably all experienced this if we haven't given up on Siri, which is the worst person most system ever created. Apple has in its dyscraticia to the level. Discraticia with this product. How do you get there first and you remain worst? Apple hasn't promoted the integration at all. But users are still overwhelmingly going to the standalone chat GPT app or others. Open AI expected billions of subscription revenue from the deal and it hasn't come to fruition. According to Bloomberg, Apple's side of the story is, hey, they have concerns about Open AI's privacy practices. Maybe they don't trust the guy in charge over there, which was a reoccurring theme in the lawsuit. And they're annoyed that Open AI and here is the palace entry. They're upset that Open AI is building hardware to compete with Apple and that they've recruited their designed guru Johnny I. Mark Benioff, you know the players. What is going on here? Yeah. And it's going to upstate. It's going to upstate. I'm going to upstate. Watch this upscale conversation just one second. Listen, what has happened? What happened is we have these LLMs, they've started to come out. Every company's kind of chosen a slightly different path. You had Elon, he went out, he had GROC and he kind of started building these companions and sex box and all this kind of stuff going on. That was a huge focus of his, the sex bot focus. Then you kind of had Open AI and they're doing the Sora video thing and they're also doing ad networks and crazy stuff like that. Then you had Gemini and the other Nano Banana and then finally you've got Anthropath and they go, we don't know about those sex bots and we don't know about Nano Banana but we're going to do coding agents and it turned down andthropic was right and all of a sudden the rocket ship took off and now everybody's like, whoa, we're doing Anthropocote. Oh, whoa, they're way up there and then they're all like, where are we? all they're going to do coding agents to, and now they're all resetting and getting hitting their buttons and going, "Coding agents, everybody focus, focus, kill Sarah, kill this, get rid of that, sex bots off, you know, cursor on." Yeah. And that's where we are right now. And so everybody, look, this is what's cool about right now is that everybody is such a dynamic moment in our industry. It's so exciting that people have to pivot and you have to be ready to focus and refocus and constantly ask the question like, "What do you want right now?" And everyone is changing what they really want. And if you looked at where everybody was a year ago and where they are now, they're in a totally different place because we all know that when Anthropic 4.6 hit, boom, everyone could code in their companies. And before that, they really couldn't do as a little bit of a productivity improvement, but not as much as we wanted. Now everybody sees this and goes, "Wow, this is unbelievable. We're even working on technology inside Slack to make it easier for everybody to code." So I think it's going to be really new. It's breaking news there. You're going to see some cool stuff with Slack and code. I'm not ready to talk about it yet, but there's no question that we are at a new moment in coding. I mean, Chemos got a whole company around it. A lot of people have companies around it. There's going to be before coding was all about humans. And like, that's where I started. I was 15 years old, Berlin Game High School, on hands-on keyboard, writing video games, basic, 68,000, 6502. No, no. Now it's like everyone-- How's that changed or-- Is it the product manager, the developer, or the UX designer? It's all blended. It's all blended. The creator did it all blend into a blend together. It's all blended together. And by the way, to Mark's point, hands-on keyboard thing, most of our engineers just speak. So it's like-- and so one of our guys just has a foot foot not for anything. And then just like-- Oh, it's not got two. Yeah. That's all they do. Plus pedal. It's all talking. Pedal plus whisper flow and talking. There is no hands-on keyboard anyway. All right. So let's get back to this story here. We're going for a new-- We're going for a new thing to flow. It's a new-- [LAUGHTER] Dolphins on keyboards. Yeah. Mahalo for you. Oh, hello. Freeberg. Two questions. One, now that Sam is shut down the sex spots, how are you filling that void? And then number two-- [LAUGHTER] Thank you, Jermann. And number two, what's your take on the strained relationship here between OpenAI and the world and specifically the Apple world? I don't know what to tell you. There doesn't seem to be a lot of long-term partnerships with OpenAI. That's a very generous way to say it. What should Apple do? They just go back to the loving arms of Google where they made $100 billion being partners with them on the search default. You are on my-- I don't know what to tell-- I mean, look, at the end of the day, I think Google has a real opportunity to integrate a Gemini assistant into all of your personal information and Gemini and calendar. Your Google Drive, your Google Photos, where all of your personal information sits. It can become your point of calendaring, your point of asking questions about your personal life. Hey, when did I email this person, et cetera? And in the enterprise context, I think that's also up for grabs with G Suite. And so Google has a real chance to kind of own that assistant interface. Maybe Salesforce does too, Mark. Apple obviously has an embedded install piece. How many people are using Apple services for doing all of their mail, for calendaring, for storing their information? I think a good number do. Yeah, a lot. And so-- Yeah. One of the way that the world silos out is like, you'll have an assistant, but the assistant for it to be truly useful to you individually, it has to have access to all of your information, whether it's in an enterprise context or a personal context. Apple is probably going to need to either build their own or white label with a partner, could be anthropic, could be someone else to get this to really work. But they're going to be up against a formidable competitor as my point, because I think Google Assistant is going to end up being kind of a real kick-ass product once they get this flywheel gone. Apple has the clearest path to becoming a top two or three player in AI, simply by buying something like perplexity or mistro or some AI lab. And then using their hardware footprint, which is extraordinary. I just got this MacBook with 48 gigs of RAM on it with an M5. It is unbelievable. And the new ones with the studio coming out are going to have a terabyte of RAM. They are going to have a clear path to maintaining your privacy, running local models. And that's going to solve people's problems. It's going to be very easy to index all your images without giving the data to open AI, which nobody trusts or giving it to Gemini. And that's, I think, a big part of why they picked the current CEO is because he's an engineer and hardware based. I think the future of this is going to be local models running on extraordinary desktop hardware. If you have employees on this level of hardware running these models locally, I have started to do. They become 10 times more valuable than the employees not running it. I think I'm not a huge for the next year. I'm not a huge believer in these local models. And the only reason why is I think you want persistence. You have multiple devices. You have multiple persona. You're using a web browser in one instance. You're using a different computer at home and the other. And the idea that you don't have persistence that follows you around in 2026, I think is a breaking feature. So I think you're not going to lug around to five pound MacBook Pro everywhere you go so that you can get knowledge. Oh, wait, you're asking, oh, wait, I got a diagnosis from my doctor. Hold on a second. I don't think that that's right. I think that was your both right. You're both right. The game on the field, though, is you will be able to use iCloud for this as well. So it's going to be, you know, you're so fruitlessly. Well, look, give me your opinion on this. I think the thing that you're assuming is that these form factors don't need to change. And I just wonder, like, don't we have an iPhone moment that we're just all going to be surprised by where somebody shows up and they're like, this thing and you're like, oh, my God, that's the thing. Do you know what I mean? Yeah, there's enough. Yeah, that's, there's nothing gradients here where somebody's going to cook something up. And then you have to think about Jason, the sunk cost of likely, you know, look, Apple is incredible. But that's the product of 40 years, 30 years of meticulous process optimization. What do you do if the form factor is totally different and the nature of the device is different? How do you pivot that organization? You're hitting on something very important and it dovetails with another story on the docket, mirror, maraudy, release, thinking machines, new real time. That was impressive. And this is super impressive and super impressive. At the same time has parented putting cameras into your AirPods. So you're right. And then I use this blog pen. I've talked about it before. These persistent hardware devices, the watch, the earpieces are going to know your entire reality. They're going to monitor your entire desktop. And this is going to lead to a use of tokens that would be a thousand times what business users are currently using because the way mirrors and we should have her on the pod or one of our events, the way her model works, Friedberg is it's watching. You're desktop. It's listening to all the voices and then it's watching your webcam all at the same time. And every 200 milliseconds, it's uploading it to two different models. One is deep thinking and looking backwards, you know, at maybe a 30 second clip and the other ones in real time. That will 1,000 x the need for tokens if people are doing this for eight hours a day because it's not the turn based. Here's my latest prompt. Here's my question. I got a response. It's in real time, always querying in LLM, which is going to require a hardware upgrade to the average desktop more than you off. What are your thoughts on this brave new world? It's one small step for man, one giant leap towards a GI. I think that you said it's really well. I mean, we are in that we've been so kind of think the LLM is the be all end all we're going to go to a GI. I don't really understand how large language models, which are only about language and words. We know how it works. It's one word we're going to get us to where we want to go to, which is minority report or all the science fiction movies that we've seen. But what we saw, and I think Jason, you'd really articulated that super well by the way, multi-sensory models. And multi-sensory models, well, here's a good one. Oh, yeah, me. I'm a multi-sensory model at a biological computer. I'm a multi-sensory model. I've got these eyes, ears, mouth, you know, work sometimes, some brain heart, whatever, and some other things going on too that I don't even understand. And it's all running in this biological computer. I'm not exactly a large language model, though I do have one sometimes. So I would say that multi-sensory models are the next big wave for AI. And then, but we're still not at a GI at that point. But those demos, like the demo of that model. That's super cool. That was pretty simple. You'll see like that was pretty awesome. And then I think we can kind of say, hmm, where are we now on the path? But I think every model company is kind of go, hold on, pivot, you know, again, pivot, right, say, and pivot, everybody's pivoting. And you're going to have to pick your poison and where are you going next, you know? And you can't do everything. You said you were spending 300 million on tokens with Anthropic. Now imagine. what this would do to an average employee if they needed a thousand times the tokens they have now. So instead of spending 150K in tokens, you gotta spend a hundred million. But you have some-- - I don't think that's true. I don't think that that, I think we're getting brainwashed on that. - Okay, so-- - This is Len. - I think that's a mistake to think that way. See, I think we are wasting a lot of those tokens. So for sure. - Oh, I'm my toading. Here's my, I think I can convince you this. So here we're using three hundred million dollars of it and the topic this year and we're coding, we're coding, we're coding, right? The vast majority of those tokens don't need to go to a topic. There needs to be some intermediary layer here, layer that's saying, oh, that one has to go to a topic. But these ones can handle by a smaller model. - You need a micehow that can route it to the most affordable for the job. - No, I need a micehow. - You said early moments. You know, it's an early moment. - Oh, yeah. - Ampt here. - And I wanna connect back to what you said before, which was brilliant Jason, which was the importance of the edge. Because the edge and the cloud are gonna come together, okay? And yes, you're gonna have more distributed intelligence. It's gonna work together. That's gonna make a ton of sense, what you said. What Chema said was also completely right. You were both right. Then you combine it to this idea. Let's put it together where we're going. Yes, we're gonna have more distributed intelligence. We're gonna have intelligence on the edge. We're gonna have multi-sensory models. And yes, you're gonna do coding. And it's gonna be more efficient though. So to think that it's gonna be always so expensive, that is just the moment of time that we're at right now. And I think there's gonna be a hot new company that's gonna come along and say this, I'm gonna sit between you and I'm thropic and open AI. And I'm gonna make sure that they only need their tokens when you actually need them. And that is not really where we are right now. - The route. - Yeah. Does that make sense what I'm saying? - Totally. - You're like 100%. - It's like, oh, I need a shower. Okay, great. All the water. No, no, no. - I just need some water. - You don't need to know how to fall. - The water. - Yeah. - Okay. - All right, listen, we have two final topics here. We can talk about anthropic unrolling the dark SPVs. And the impact that has on the market. Or we can go to everybody's favorite science corner. - Well, do both. Just do a quick round the near bread. - Yeah. - And we're going down on what we'll do SPVs last. Freeberg, what do you got in science corner? Everybody, all the freeberg fans just destroy what we skip it. So let's give them one. Mark, do you like science corner? - No, you do. - I do. - Yeah. - We're gonna call it. - Marcus, the greatest salesman in Silicon Valley. He loves it all and he wants to hear more. - He's a little sick of it. - Mark, how did you learn sales? And how do we become half as good as you? - I'm not a good sales. I'm like a geek. - You are. - But you don't learn a lot. - I'm not a little bit of Tony Robbins seminar. Let's go. - Okay. - Walk over the colds together. - We're all going to Tony. Put out the colds. We're walking across him. - Nick, let's pull up the first chart. This science corner is about the dreaded El Nino season that is coming up. And so this is a forecast for sea surface temperature anomalies. And basically what this means is that the ocean at this point has heated up so much that there's now a forecast on ocean temperatures that are going to exceed anything we have seen in recent history. So we're kind of looking at temperatures that might be four degrees above normal. That doesn't sound like a lot. But let's just look at this image. That top image is the sea surface temperature anomaly. That means how different the sea surface or the ocean temperatures are. Why does that matter? And this is compared to 1877 when we had the biggest El Nino year ever. And I'll explain what that means in a moment. But why does this all matter? The reason is the oceans are the battery of weather. What happens at one part of the year is that the oceans absorb heat energy. And absorb, absorb, absorb gets hotter and hotter and hotter and hotter. And then that heat energy is released into the atmosphere. And then the atmosphere drives the weather events that happen all over the world. And it becomes somewhat predictable that you can estimate what the weather over the next year is going to be like based on how the temperatures are sitting in the ocean today. And at this point, there is so much excess energy stored up in the oceans. I'll give you guys a statistic. It's about 11 million terawatt hours. The whole planet Earth uses 25,000 terawatt hours in a year. So 11 million extra terawatt hours of energy is currently stored up. That's 500 years worth of human energy in the ocean. And over the next few months, that energy's going to be released into the atmosphere. And that will absolutely 99% confidence that will make the upcoming year, the hottest year, on record by far, that humans have ever experienced or at least that we've experienced in recent history where we didn't have data going back a long time. It changes the trade winds, which changes how a lot of the weather evolves from a normal season. It changes the moisture in the atmosphere in certain parts of the world. And I'll just give you some highlights of what this means over the coming year. There will be major atmospheric river events where you just get water dumped on you in the Southwest in California and the Gulf Coast. You'll have very low snowfall and very high heat waves in the northern part of the US. Going up to Canada, you guys remember all those fires a couple of years ago in Canada, interior regions of the US, like in Phoenix and so on. They're already seeing pictures at 106 degrees in May. A super El Nino like is forecasted for this year could extend that duration of these heat tones, which could create temperatures that we've never seen in those areas. Southern Argentina, Chile, Brazil could see record-shattering heat waves. And this is where things start to get a little nasty because when that happens, the crops start to fail. And in many parts of the world, Brazil, India, Australia, these are critical local consumption for large populations, but also major export markets. So if Brazil's crop fails, if Australia's weak crop fails, Australia's weak crop goes to places like Indonesia and the Philippines. Hundreds of millions of people depend on that weak crop. Hundreds of millions of people depend on the exports out of Brazil, Brazil's the world's largest Ag exporter. And the scariest one of all is if the monsoons fail, which is now a very high probability event in India. 150 million farmers in India that depend on their agricultural output or they don't make any money, they can't survive. And one and a half billion people that depend on that food. So the importance of this El Nino event goes beyond just like an interesting weather anecdote. But if you think about the second and third for effective this over the next year, you could see energy prices spiking and electricity spiking and the grid failing in parts of the Southwest, commodity prices spiking all over the world. And then you would see places like India, the Philippines, Vietnam starting to face some sort of unrest if there isn't enough food supply that's coming into those markets. And then the question in India is a really nasty one because there isn't a really good solution. India and markets like it that are significantly dependent on having their monsoon event, but also are currently facing a shortage of nitrogen-based fertilizer because of the crisis where they're on in the straight-of-four mues, which we've talked about as a double whammy. So over the next year in South Asia, you could see a calorie deficit and a major kind of economic crisis that starts to emerge. So this El Nino event, I just wanted to kind of bring it up as an interesting science corner because the data now seems pretty confirmed that over the next few months we're gonna have this record-breaking El Nino. And these are the sorts of consequences that will play out over the next year. - This is (beep) scary. - God damn. - What do you do about the food problem? That's a big problem. - That's a big problem. And this is the commodity market that's going wild for this right now. - Did this happen the last time we had an El Nino? - Yeah, so when we have El Nino, there's a severity of these sorts of events happening. - No, I mean, and-- - Did we have a food shortage problem in the last El Nino? - Oh yeah, when we have El Nino, there's food shortages that come out of Australia, Brazil, you see these events. That's a regular part of the thing. The problem this year is the index is so off the charts. It is so far beyond anything we've seen. And it's correlated obviously with the severity that it triggers a crisis that may be, you know, really difficult to manage in a lot of places. So the US is a net ag exporter. So from a US perspective, our big issues to worry about are the fire season. By the way, this does decrease Atlantic hurricanes. You're gonna have fewer hurricanes this year in the South. But, you know, you have these kind of major storm events that happen in California, the heat waves, electricity prices were probably more stable than other parts of the world. But think about the Brazil, the ag export market is such a significant part of the economy. And Brazil has a debt problem that this could end up becoming an economic problem in some parts of the world, including Brazil. So the commodity markets are trading this El Nino event pretty actively right now. It's become kind of a focal area for a lot of folks in commodity markets. Can your supersedes help or not? That's a longer term solution. But, dummy, look, we're like, at the end of the day, having, it's actually a good point, but having genetics, a crop genetics that can adapt to a more rapidly changing climate is gonna be critical over the next couple of decades. That's a big kind of macro. - Is it another part of this freedberg that as certain places heat up, they actually become viable places to put crops, i.e. Canada, or the northern part of the United States. So we're seeing the actual places you can grow certain crops that independent of genetic modification is expanding. In other words, farmlands expanding because of global warming. - Right, so we increasingly grow soybeans in Canada that was not the case two decades ago. Through both plant breeding where we've made the genetics adapt, but also the warmer temperature, the shorter winters and whatnot, they've been able to grow that crop further north. But if you guys go back a couple of years, there were major heatwaves and grouts in Australia. - Huge fires, yeah. huge fires, but remember that wheat goes to Indonesia, it goes to Vietnam, it goes to these countries with hundreds of millions of people dependent on it, and then they got to go scramble and find it elsewhere. Now, on a global basis, there's always a bit of a given a take. But in a year like this, when you have this much energy pumped into the atmosphere, you may not have the given the take, and that's where things start to buckle. All right. So, yeah, it's just like an early warning sign. I know I've given food warnings, food crisis warnings twice before on the show. I gave a really good one for Ukraine four years ago, and it turned out that that warning resulted in a negotiation to allow wheat to flow out of Ukraine, that Russia, Ukraine, and other folks made a specific carve out in their war to make sure that famine didn't spread. And the fertilizer export was negotiated at the start of the war as well, which was critical for sure. But if you played a role in raising awareness for that, so I'll give you credit at their freeberg. Mark, thanks for coming on the program. Sorry, that at the end of the program, we all want to commit subcouple here, but we have Dr. Doom. And he always loves to end the show. There he is. Well, I don't think Mark ran dissembring the food. You want to wrap with an upbeat anthropocrystance? Like, Vendures? Doomsday starring David Friedberg coming to the Marvel franchise in December. Yes. You thought Robert Downey Jr. was playing him. It's actually Friedberg. Here's your meme. It's not Mark Benioff's first time here in the Sasspocalypse. There it is. First time. Oh, he's like, I've been doing this before, boys. I'm buying my stock bag. Somebody cut that rope. Yeah, absolutely. All right. Listen, I'll just lightening around this one. Anthropic has had enough of the shenanigans of the multi-tiered, multi-layered SPVs being sold to dentists for 10% load-in fees. I think we all knew this day was coming since it's becoming the Wild West. They called out specific platforms and they said we're going to negate them. Chimoff, Tempest in a teapot or long overdue love punishment for bad actors. Love. Mark said it right. All these companies should go public and get evaluation and focus on the higher order bit. And all of these tiki-taki mechanisms that people can use to stay private longer need to get a bullet put in its head. And these SPVs are the worst. The layered SPVs on SPVs on SPVs. By the way, and I will guarantee you this. One SpaceX goes public, one Synthropic goes public, one Sopena AI goes public. You're going to see a litany of these lawsuits back and forth between the purveyors of these SVs. They should not be allowed. They should be all negated if possible. You can't now you can't unbreak the eggs. So I guess you just have to call it what it is. I hope every company adopts this and I hope as a result these companies go public sooner and they rationalize their equity structure faster. I think it's the right thing to do. So I like the fact that anthropic is the thing. Just say it should not. Discretion. Well, it's not discretion. I just think that you are going to have a lot of. Well, you're going to have a lot of people that are going to be very upset once this SpaceX thing comes out because inevitably because it happened in Uber, somebody gets screwed in a layered SPV somewhere that they didn't know and they're going to be like, what happened? Read the fine print. You're getting double carry and you paid 10% on the load in fee and you paid a price 10% over what the last round was. So it's a recipe for disaster. Recipe for disaster. Recipe for disaster. Hey, Mark, great job. Thanks so much for coming with us. Come back. Yeah, that was great. Anytime you were great. Hey, you peep. There's a, we have a fan question here. This is a fan question that came in written by your PR department. They want to know when you do your charity work or your innovation as a founder, are you more, you know, at this stage in your career, you're known for both of these things. Are you more Steve Jobs or more Lorraine Powell right now? What do your PR department work? Very, very deep. They know my question. They fade away. Yeah, the best decision I ever made, the best when I started Salesforce. We put 1% of our equity, 1% of our profit and 1% of all of our employees time into a foundation. Today, we've done more than 10 million hours of volunteerism. We've given away more than a billion dollars and grants and we run over 50,000 nonprofits for free on our platform. That's just Salesforce. Every company should do this. It's amazing. Pledge1%.org. That's my advertisement for the show. Everybody should jump on the 1-on-1 platform. Best decision I ever made 27 years ago. Irrespective of obviously done a huge amount of personal philanthropy to five hospitals. You just did one really. You did one that was really, I think, personal Susan Wojekki tragically died of cancer and major health. You're going to get me crying. Let's not go there. Well, and you're talking about my best friend, bestie, my bestie. She was a special person, huh? She's a star. The best. She was the best. Well, just tell me. I'm not kidding. I'm not kidding. Tell the audience what we're doing about Susan. Tell them what you're doing. It's a good time to do a remembrance. This was one of the great people on the planet, incredible woman, mother of five amazing children and two amazing sisters, great family. She knows and her sister, her sister Janet at UCSF. Sorry, my eyes are tearing up. I'll just tell you that, you know, she contracted a very rare form of cancer passed away. It's two young, a couple years ago now. And she was on our board. She was one of the great people of all time. I'm so grateful that her family is focusing on building a new foundation to go after this rare cancer. We're backing it. I think everybody should. Look, everyone should try to be a Susan. She was one of the absolute greats. And I have an alter in my office when you come to see me. You'll see what the photos of her and me and I think it burned her every single day. And my heart just stays with her, her husband Dennis, all the children, the sisters, the whole Hushicki family, amazing. Great. And one of the great institutions in Silicon Valley were lucky to have the whole family. Yeah. She was fantastic. All right, well, sad, rest in peace. Susan, we're checking. All right, we'll see you all next time on the lovely boys and podcasts. Love you guys. See you guys. Bye.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The All-in podcast discusses the Trump-Xi summit, highlighting China’s agreement to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and oppose a nuclear-armed Iran, while Xi warned on Taiwan that mishandling could lead to dangerous conflict.
  2. Polymarket odds show low probability of China invading Taiwan in 2026 (6%) but rising to 17% by 2027, with debate on timing relative to Trump’s term.
  3. China committed to buy more U.S. soybeans, oil, LNG, and 200 Boeing jets, while Trump praised Xi, aiming for economic cooperation to avoid the Thucydides Trap.
  4. Participants argue that economic entanglement reduces conflict risk, with China needing U.S. energy and technology, and the U.S. seeking market access and de-escalation in regions like Central/South America and the Middle East.
  5. Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff notes his company avoids direct China operations due to data laws, using an Alibaba partnership, while Tesla’s Elon Musk has a unique direct presence in China.
  6. The midterm election impact is seen as more influenced by gerrymandering and campaign finance (e.g., Andreessen Horowitz) than the summit, with cost-of-living and job security key voter concerns.

Summary:

The podcast episode analyzes the Trump-Xi summit, emphasizing potential for economic cooperation to avert conflict. S. purchases.

S. seeking market access. Salesforce’s Benioff explains his China strategy through Alibaba due to data laws, contrasting with Tesla’s direct presence.

The midterms are seen as more shaped by gerrymandering and political spending than the summit, with voter focus on inflation and jobs. The discussion highlights a bipolar world division, with both nations incentivized to share resources and avoid static-pie conflict, leveraging AI and automation for abundance.

FAQs

China agreed to keep the Strait of Malacca open, not to give Iran nuclear weapons, and committed to buy more US soybeans, oil, LNG, and 200 Boeing jets. The talks aimed for constructive strategic and stable ties.

Trump brought CEOs like Elon Musk and Jensen Huang as top salespeople to sell US products such as planes, chips, and soybeans, aiming to increase economic entanglement and secure trade deals.

Salesforce has no offices or employees in China; it uses an exclusive partnership with Alibaba to handle data residency laws, keeping all data in China and accessible by the CCP.

If $20,000-$30,000 Chinese cars were brought to the US, it would hollow out the entire US automotive industry overnight, according to the podcast.

The US has a stranglehold on AI, while China controls rare earths and energy resources. The podcast suggests a trade can be made to divide global influence and avoid conflict.

Xi's focus is on maintaining economic growth and keeping 500 million people in the middle class, as China faces issues with population decline, real estate, and falling GDP.

Chat with AI

Loading...

Pro features

Go deeper with this episode

Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.