234. Trump’s Texas Panic: The Last Minute Scramble

[Music] Hello everybody, welcome to the rest is politics US. We are exactly one week out from midterm elections and we've decided to do this live stream and we'll be doing them again tomorrow and again on Friday and then of course you won't be able to get rid of us all of next week either but thank you very much for joining us. Okay so let's jump into Texas politics because in a last minute scramble to secure a Republican win in Texas. Donald Trump has flown down there. He did two rallies there yesterday one in Corpus Christi and one in deep red Lubbock, Texas to rescue his candidate Ken Paxton, Senate bid. He's got some reason to panic because just a few miles away and one hour later James Taloriko, the Democratic candidate, held his own rally attacking Trump's corrupt tariffs, his corrupt war and his corrupt division of America and by the way taking on one Elon Musk. So let's dive in. This episode is brought to you by Utoro. A tariff, a spending plan, a regulatory change, it can all start just as the first line of a speech but it sets in motion things that can reach far beyond Washington an unfold for years to come. That's right, Caddy. Mark has moved on expectations, not just events, investors are constantly weighing what a decision could mean for companies sectors and the wider economy. So Utoro is an investing platform where you can access a wide range of markets and explore how political and economic developments could affect them. You could also learn from the global community of investors and see how people around the world are interpreting the same news. As with all investing, your capital is at risk. See itoro.com/tripus for full terms. Anthony, I have spent the last couple of hours while I was walking my dog Charlie listening to Donald Trump speech, and to James Taloriko speech. It was pretty surreal because they were literally three hours apart in Lubbock. You needed a couple of hours because James Taloriko speech was a tight 28 minutes or something. Donald Trump speech was a not tight hour and a half that he was up on stage for. So you needed that amount of time. And it felt like there was energy on both sides. They both got about 4,000 people. But as Taloriko pointed out, they were in an area of the state that Donald Trump had won handily three times. So you might have expected more conservatives to turn out than Democrats. I know you and I have been backwards and forwards on Taloriko's chances and the Democrats' chances in Texas. What are you thinking right now? I'm thinking Ken Pax is doing a lot of squats right now. I don't think his ass is muscular enough for Donald Trump. He's in the gym right now. He didn't get the muscle praise. No, I mean, he basically got told he was ugly by Trump. I don't know how the president thinks this stuff is helping these candidates, but it's definitely entertaining. But you know, listen, I mean, it's a toss-up, Caddy. I don't love the five to six point lead that Taloriko has. If it was another state, I'd be like, yeah, he's outside the margin of error narrowly. He's likely going to win. But you saw this race with Netanyahu last night. You saw the situation in Brazil. These things go freaky deep at the last minute. And so I don't love where Taloriko is right now. Up 10, I'd be super happy, but where he is right now. No. Yeah, and actually, I think a poll just came out that shows it 48 Taloriko, Paxton, 46, and two is definitely within the margin of error if you're saying. And we said this on the show this week, the trouble with all of these red states is that you are asking people to change a habit. Yes, he managed to get 4,000 people out. And as he had quite a good line, he said that's a lot of Talor Freakos turning Donald Trump's attack on him back on himself. I thought that was pretty good. He should be using that more. So he got 4,000 people to turn out to see him in love book. But you're still asking people to break potentially the habit of a lifetime. The one thing I would look at in Texas is the Latino vote. We know that the Latino vote in this midterm election is the biggest swing vote. If you look at the numbers of how Latinos have shifted from 2024 when they helped drive Donald Trump over the line to where they stand today, it's the single biggest double digit drop of any of the groups that are voting. Much biggest change than white voters, old voters, young voters, I mean, hands down the cratering of the Republicans' lead with Latino voters. Obviously has an impact in the state like Texas, right? Because you've got a big Latino population. I listened to Taloriko. I thought he was good. Anthony, I didn't think you're a comms person. He wasn't amazing. He didn't have the credit. He's not Barack Obama. He is a milk toast, well-messenger guy. You are more polite than me. He doesn't have Riz. He doesn't have charisma. He's not grabbing people and pulling them into the speech. He's like, here's my message. It's a Christian message. I really hate me, but I'm going to eat it because I live here in Texas. I'm not an asshole. I can't pack it in Donald Trump. I also think that your kids need a fair shake in our society. That's the message, but it's not a punchy message. Listen, here's what I don't like. Again, I want to be wrong. Please understand. I want these guys, and I want maggot demolished, and I want a metaphorical steam roller just smashing into Trump and Paxon. But the Democrats have been two points away in Texas since 1988. Last Democratic Senator Lloyd Benson. I'm worried because you've got the youth in Paul has Democrats narrowly ahead, and that's not enough enough to state like Texas. Those state polls are generally better at modeling the electorate right than the national polls. I find it. But the cost of living question, Talleriko's plus 19 on that. That makes you think maybe someone goes into the poll, who closes the curtain and says, "I need money and I got to make money." These guys, these Republicans aren't working for me. But, you know, you know, Caddy, this is the last point I want to make on this. $490.4 million, Caddy. I mean, you got to think about, you know, we could have built 10 schools in Texas. We could have brought in, you know, I don't know, 10,000 teachers. I mean, it's 490.4 million, and they're still dumping money. And listen, we've talked about the expenses of the Iranian War, the energy prices, the inflation, the interest rates going up. This could have been a $100, 200 million race in its entirety, and maybe a hundred or so for the Republicans, if they just stuck with corner. Yeah, they didn't need to spend that money. I mean, one of the best lines that Talleriko had last night, and I've heard him repeating this, actually, is about, and he's kind of wonky Talleriko. I quite like it. He gets into all sort of wonky stuff that Texas needs. But in a way, the bit where he has the crowd, the most engaged, is when he calls out Elon Musk. And he says, "Do you know who put those, you know, ads up about me that are lying?" It was Elon. "Do you know who spent millions of dollars on ads?" It was Elon. He doesn't even come from Texas. He's not born and bred here, but he is having an outside impact on this campaign. Elon Musk has spent, and it's worth getting these numbers wrapped around your head, Elon Musk has spent $560 million during the course of these midterms. That's astonishing in itself. What's the number of taxes? $180 million. He's dropped, which is a pocket changed Elon Musk. $180 million. And now I think what's clever about what Talleriko is doing it, I think some of this might be breaking through, because he then closes this whole thing about, "Do you know who spent so much money?" It's Elon. Well, we have a message for Elon, Texas is not for sale. A better politician would have the whole crowd in the way that Abdul El-Sahed, who I saw up in Michigan, had it like the whole crowd chanting back at him. He doesn't do that. But it's a good line. Texas is not for sale. And I think it gets to something that Democrats tell me they're seeing in these closing weeks. And that is that people don't like the corruption. And this ties in with some of the stuff you've spoken about Anthony. I think it ties in with this idea that a whole load of people are making a whole load of money. It just reminds everybody that Elon Musk has $180 million to drop on an election campaign. But here's the thing, Katie. Elon, you tell me you're going to spend $500 million on this stuff. Now, I know he's made a lot of money and his net worth is going up 500 billions since Trump became president. I get all that. But you don't want to have any balance in your personality. What happens when the Democrats get back in power in this country? Or is he making the bet that the Democrats are never getting back in power? There's going to be an authoritarian regime that runs the United States for the next 30 years. It's good question. It's just to me, what is the strategy? there. But, but, Cady, this is a number that should scare people in Texas. Okay, you ready? This, and I, and I just, I just got this from Cooke. Okay. What is Trump's favorability rating in Texas? You ready? It's 46 percent. Okay. Now, that, that is high. That is high compared to the rest of the country. That is about 16 points higher than his national average. So, so, so he's still reasonably well thought of in Texas. And he's not on the ballot. I understand that. And everybody knows he's not on the ballot. But, you know, that's a pretty good number for the president. Yeah. That is a very good number. And somebody on here is saying Texas will never go blue. Keep dreaming fake news media. This is Anthony Churcher. Dude, I'm with you, bro. Anthony, I'm totally with you. I, I, I, I, I, I, never say never, never say never. Texas will never go blue until Texas does go blue. And every political scientist down in Texas, I speak to says, at some point it will probably is calling them. Dusty's calling them a political bot. Like, you're a total bot. Oh, maybe I'm not a bot. I'm not a bot. I'm looking at it. I, I, I, I know how aggressive the Republicans are down there. You know, by the way, before this is over, I predict they're going to spend another 100 million in that race. I guarantee you they're going to go to Elon and say, yeah, the 180 not enough. Could you shoot in another 100? Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, this is crazy. This is the most expensive Senate rate, Senate race ever. And by the way, Elon Musk is the biggest political donor in American history. He has spent more since 2024 than George Soros spent in his whole lifetime. And that is how much money this guy is spending to nearly demonize American. And I think it's a, this is a big question Americans need to have after these midterms is and I, if Ken Paxton wins in Texas, I think the message to people like Elon Musk will be, how about it? This works. You dump a whole load of money there. You can get a very flawed candidate who has been indicted across the line. Despite the fact that Republicans up and down Texas, even in Lubbock, Texas will tell you that Ken Paxton is not a great guy and is not a good candidate, right? That's what I'm worried about is the message. So this is a self declared role play. Okay, so I'm going to tell you the two roles and then we're going to get your questions guys a little ago. Okay, I'm playing the Republican on the Texas Republican. I eat the meat. Have you got the accent? Can you do it for me? I got the, I got the accent. I got the 10 gallon hat and I shoot at things that are moving. Okay, so those are like living things. Okay, and so now I'm upset about the war. I'm upset about the lack of transparency on Epstein. I'm upset about the affordability. Am I crossing over to vote for Tallarika? Or more likely, are you staying home? Am I staying home? Okay, which is a vote for Tallarika? So I'm going to say that those people are not doing that. I think they're going, now the next role play, I'm the independent and I'm sort of tired of everything. Am I voting for Tallarika or am I staying home? And I think this is what that race is going to come down to. It's ultimately going to be are the people who are fed up. They've gotten so apathetic. They're independence. They've declared themselves independence. And they like Tallarika's messaging, but you know, he's a little milk toast and they make a decision either to go to the polls and kick out the Republicans or they don't show up. That's the group that I personally am most worried about. So I still think Paxon to me has the stronger hand here, even though he's slightly down on the polls. All right, we should take the question. Okay, wait, well there's one more Texas question. So let's take that. Then we'll take a break and then we'll come back with more of your questions. Okay, Matthew Burn 4223 is asking after Trump's two Texas rallies yesterday is Paxon's biggest liability, his own baggage or Trump's Iran war. That is a great question. I would say that every Republican who's running the Iran war is a liability, which is why you're hearing some of them distance themselves from it. But Paxon also has particular baggage, of course, of his own. I am going with Trump's Iran war because it is driving up the price of gas and diesel so much and that is what people are reminded of every time and they drive a lot in Texas every time they drive past a gas stand. What are you reckoning, Anthony? Yeah, I think that's the problem. Again, I think that's the lane. That's the independent lane that you and Kat you're talking about, Matthew, that's the lane and that's where I'm worried about the indifference in that lane. Well, it's not going to get any better anyway. It doesn't really matter. I'm not showing up at the polls. Now, I know this is going to sound very weird to everybody, but we got a weird guy running the government. So just hear me out for a second. When he is crapping all over Paxon's aesthetics, that doesn't help Paxon. I'm just telling you in the country that we live in, it doesn't help Paxon. It's weird. I mean, I know it sounds superficial. I know it sounds superficial, but I'm telling people like, oh, man, this guy Paxon. He's even Trump. The open orange spam can even thinks Paxon is hideous. It doesn't help the guy. But by the way, let's go to the next question. Wait a second, because Trump is going to speak in Ohio tonight. So what is John who's still thinking to himself? He's like kind of trying to hide his ass. He's got it. No, no, no, he's got it. He's not doing any more workouts. His ass is firm enough. He's checking out his hands right now. He's trying to see how big his hands are. He's got it. You know that Trump's going to bring that up. Okay, we're going to take a quick break and come back with more of your questions. The great game, strategic struggle between Britain and Russia. We assess Prime Minister with high confidence it was Russian. Holding the Russians accountable is world war story. They took down a British passenger jet, contained 350 people. Man, in the Kremlin is playing Alex. Got to ask yourself, you want to play or not? You're the Prime Minister. If done, nothing! We would need to understand the policy context. All the relevant context will be structured as a framework today and disseminated into an operation order or frago. A frago that says to kill the president of Russia. Yes. New from Golhanger. Who is going to be able to pull this off? 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This is not like January the 6th and 2020, but you're right that he has pretty much been ruling by executive order. He has ignored Congress, but if the Democrats take the House and the Senate, there are things they can do to force his hand. I mean, they could try, they will try. I know that they are planning to do a kind of hundred-hour blitz and then a hundred-day blitz on all of the things they want to address. They particularly want to do something about cost of living around healthcare if they can. They want to try and introduce some popular policies like the resumption of snap benefits of healthcare subsidies, rolling out more Medicaid programs that have been cut back around the country. They're counting on the fact that Republicans might feel those are the kinds of things they don't want to vote against. So there are things that the Democrats will try and do, but they're also going to do a whole load of investigations. And that, depending on how they take that, that could work to their advantage or disadvantage. It depends how far they go on that. Yeah, I'll just just remember everybody that every president, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, they ramped up the executive orders in the last two years of the term. So you have to forget, you have to, you know, you have to not forget that when Trump is doing his shenanigans. Of course, of course, they're going to slow Trump down from a legislative perspective. You know, he issued so far 289 executive orders. orders. And you know, that's more than the 220 that he did his entire first term. So he's going to ramp him up and you've got to be ready for him. And then the question is how successful or efficacious those will be. But when I'm seeing, though, and I think this is the thing people got to be ready for is the parts. You know, he could he could pardon 300 500 people, which is another thing. By the way, the Democrats are going to have top of their investigation list, whether there's been an abuse of the pardon power. Okay, Vivian 93, this is a great question. We always talk about purple states turning blue in next week's elections. But are there any blue states currently at risk of turning red? Yes, Vivian, you're right. There is. I would look at New Hampshire where there is a Senate race that at the moment, the Democrats hold, but that is a lot closer than most Democrats are comfortable with Democrat economy, right? This is, this is John's former senator, Republican former senator, John Sanunu, who is known in New Hampshire. People like him in New Hampshire. He was a pretty popular senator. He is running again this time. He's up against a Democratic congressman, Chris Papas. New Hampshire is always a quirky state. It's more libertarian than you might think. It's certainly not a kind of lefty Lucy Goosey state like Vermont is. So it would be that is the one, the big one. Can you think of any others? I think that's the big one, right? That's the big one. And listen, he has the name. I lived in Boston. John's sister weirdly was my RA, my resident assistant at Tufts when I was a kid. The family has been in. Imagine being your RA. Wow. Yeah, it was bad. It was bad for her. That's a tough job. But I mean, she was good because I could have been reprimanded. It's like 75 times in like the first semester, but she's okay with me. So if you're out there listening, thank you. Thank you for letting us know. At the release of your brother, you guys have the best brand name, 50 year brand name in the state. And again, I think name recognition matters. You know this. I know this. A lot of people are going to the polls. They're not paying attention all day. They open the curtain. They see a sanunu. And if they've liked the other sanunu, they may vote for them. So that could flip. It's a really good question. There's a couple of people here who are writing us from New Hampshire saying that they think it is, that they think it's going to be tight as well. And we've had a couple of new members join up. So that's really nice. Thank you for joining us and for becoming a member of the rest is politics. Can we get to this gentleman paid some money here? I think we, I think until we figure out what Republican society where after Trump, I feel like the entire political world is stuck in the mud. I totally agree. That's going to be the question. Okay. I don't know if you saw running with track shoes, Marco Rubio last night. I don't know if you saw that. He had his track shoes on. And he was running off the stage as fast as humanly possible because you know, Trump is sweating. He's going all by curious. He was like a robot that's glitching. And Rubio was like, I don't know how am I going to get away from this. It's just too much tar on me. And the only way to do that is to exercise Trump. And guys, I know this is a crazy thing. But if the Democrats actually took the Senate, they would need 15 Republicans to knock Trump out of his job. Now, I don't know. Maybe they wouldn't want Marco. Maybe they wouldn't want JD to advance in that job because then he'd be running as an incumbent. But I'm just saying they could put a lot of pressure on Trump. If they could get 10 or 12 Republicans to say, hey, man, knock it off. It could happen because he's going to be weakened after this. If they lose the House and the Senate, don't underestimate how angry everybody is in Washington at Donald Trump, including the Republicans. Okay. Kevin Hamilton is asking, this is a good question. Kevin, if the Republicans hold on to both houses, what will that say about the Democrats and the American public, given the state of the economy and Trump's disapproval ratings? I mean, you and I have, we've traveled a lot. You're in Lisbon at the moment. I hear this every time I go back to Europe. We heard it up in Canada. If the Democrats lose these midterms when Trump is so unpopular, when everything is going against him, what will it say about the American public? So, Kevin, there's one way of phrasing this that doesn't make you think Americans have gone crazy. And I know a lot of foreigners think that America went crazy in 2016. And they went crazy in 2024. But there are structural reasons why this is hard for Democrats. There's the gerrymandering. There's the money we spoke about. There's the fact that a lot of these Senate seats are in red states where we mentioned this. People have the habit of voting Republican. You're asking them to change their habits. I don't know about you. Kevin, I find it very difficult to change my habit. I want to work out every morning. I still can't do it. I'd rather have my coffee. So I think you're asking people to change their voting habits. That's not easy. So there are reasons why, although I feel there is a big wave, a big blue wave out there. And it's mostly an anti-Trump anti-administration wave. It's not that people love the Democrats. By the way, they're approval ratings in the toilet, too. But they really don't like the price of gas. They really don't like the Iran war. They're up against this wall. And it's going to be a question of which is more powerful. Is it the wall of money and gerrymandering and habit in red states? Or is it the wave? And it could be tight. I think each of these races is very tight. Democrats, by the way, in Washington X, I've bumped into them all the time. Democratic strategies. They are freaking out at the moment, Anthony. We feel like I need to be handing out Xanax from my doorstep, because they're all panic. I mean, I mean, the this crop of Democrats are bedwaters. You know it. And I know it. Well, they have reason 2016, 2024. They're knee knocking, they're knee knocking bedwaters. But I'll just say that if they lose this, if they lose this and given where Trump's approval rating is, they need to have a serious in the woodshed reckoning with each other about what they're doing and what their narrative is as it relates to the American people. But I don't think they are going to. I definitely think they take the house. And there's a chance they could they could wave into the Senate. It's possible. And we have said they've got some good candidates. I mean, actually, for all of the talk about L. S. I. Ed and the radical left, they've in fact, in a lot of these reddish states, like Kansas and Iowa and Ohio and Alaska, all the Alaska stories, kind of interesting. Maybe we should get into that. They have actually chosen some good candidates in those states. Yeah. It's going to be close. Listen, I it's going to be close. You and I are going to be tracking this the whole way. Yeah. I appreciate everybody logging in tonight. I get I guess, well, no, we know, but Cady and I are going to be live. What time are we starting? Okay. So wait, we're going to be back before we get to election day. We will be back live tomorrow at 8 p.m. UK time 4 p.m. Eastern. You can sign up to the newsletter. If you want that link directly into your inbox, it will come to you. And also one of our reporters in our newsletter has been down in San Antonio, Texas, in Austin and in Houston. She's been speaking to people across the political spectrum, hearing firsthand about the impact of the economy about ice informants. So you can look out for that piece, which you can sign up to at the rest is politics us.com. And we'll be back tomorrow 8 p.m. and then on election night, we will be 5 a.m. to 8 a.m. London time midnight to 3 a.m. East Coast time with all of the results. Thank you guys. Thanks for joining us today. We'll be exciting stuff guys. We'll be back tomorrow. Hang in there guys.