Trump’s GOP Support Is CRACKING — Republicans Finally Fight Back

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We were last night at politics and pros. It was so fun. I know last night was awesome, but we're now here virtually and it's going to be awesome again. So, we're back. Yes, we're back. Okay. Normal life. You don't want to spend time talking about our wonderful name. Not like in a like day way. It was a book event for I disagree, so by I disagree. And leave a review. Also, I'm getting really nice reviews. But I want more of them. If you have something bad to say, I don't particularly want that, but I won't have them take it down either. I'm not one of those people after charging the situation. Welcome to the raging perspective. I'm Jessica Tarlev. And I'm Aaron Parnas. And if you haven't subscribed yet, hit that link, top left corner and subscribe. Hit the top left. All right. We got a lot to get to. We are now under 40 days to them in terms, which feels crazy. It'll be 39. That's what I meant by right under 40. I'm a growing number of Republicans, including Senate hopefuls in Michigan and Iowa are publicly breaking with Trump. They're growing after a number of unpopular policies and actions, and what took you so long. More in Iran, rising gas prices, immigration operations, even in Kansas. That one blew my mind when Roger Marshall had to be like, these ice raids are out of control. And it's like, did you just wake up? Have you not been around here for the last almost two years? But I digress. Questionable funding for John Jr.'s wedding was also a hot topic. John Curtis from Utah leading the way there. Yeah, that fun, fatty cake is going to haunt them. One of the many reasons that voters are turning against Trump is obviously the affordability crisis. Mortgage rates. Now it's 7.5%. Diesel prices at a historic highs and gas prices are up 27% year over year. I'm not sure if it's just my algorithm. Everything is usually just your algorithm, but I have been consuming these incredible ads from candidates who you wouldn't expect to have any shot. So Adam Hamilton has one out, Dan Osborne, that I'm loving, Todd Achilles and Idaho. Do you know how to pronounce her last name? Anyhosa? Anyhosa, where she actually has a January 6th in her ad against Greg Abbott in Texas. And it makes me feel like the map is wide open for us. I know that a good ad doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to win. But the polling also indicates there's a reason that they're cutting these great ads. What do you think the current state of play is, do you think it's too little too late in terms of turning on Trump for someone like a mic Rogers or Ashley Henson? Well, I think Americans are smarter than this. I mean, I think the funniest thing that I see right now are these Republican candidates scrubbing Donald Trump from their website. So Byron Donalds did it last week in Florida. And then just today, Jay Feeley, who is Maga Maga all the way in Arizona's first congressional districts. Once he had Trump's name and his face on his website, today, he no longer has Trump anywhere near him. I think voters remember voters are not dumb. You can't a the internet is forever, b, you can't just like all of a sudden say, no, we didn't. We didn't do what we just did over the past almost two years. Like, no, no, everything you're seeing is not actually what you're seeing. I think that they see the writing on the wall. Every single poll that comes out and I'm not a big believer in polls. But at a point literally every poll shows Republicans hemorrhaging support across the country. And it's not just in like generic R versus D polling. It's in issues based polling, immigration, their underwater, the economy, their underwater. And take polls out of it. I judge how an election will do based on how the economy is doing in November. And right now the economy is complete shit. If the economy was great right now and Americans were making money and your 401Ks were in fact booming and not just where they booming, but you could actually afford to invest in your retirement fund, I think Republicans could hold onto the House in the Senate. Like gas prices were at $3 a gallon, I think we'd be having a very different conversation. That's not where we are right now. And I think the White House has blinders on and to us to what the actual reality is on the ground right now. Yeah, I mean, you said you're not a big believer in polls. I am a big believer in polls. I also like staying employed and worked in polling. And I think it's an important indication. You know, it's a snapshot of a moment in time. And the trend lines are definitely moving dramatically in Democrats direction. There were a few results that stood out to me like, well, everything is going blue, blue, blue, blue, blue, blue, blue. Susan Collins was up three in one of the most recent polls against Troy Jackson. That's a concern that's major pickup opportunity. Chris Papis only polling kind of three to five points ahead in a best case scenario in New Hampshire. That wasn't really on anyone's radar as something that we are going to need to spend big to defend and looks to be an issue. I was heartened to see Abdul Al Sayed and Jocelyn Benson are now running at the same level ahead of their Republican opponents. Abdul had been lagging behind her. So that's good news, but it feels as if it's just like too good to be true and that maybe there's some massive polling error coming, I don't want to think that, but it seems unrealistic that you could have a world in which this blue tsunami happens while public approval for the Democratic Party has not inched up that much. Like they still don't like us. I don't think it's going to be a blue tsunami. I never did think it was going to be a blue tsunami. I think it's going to be a successful blue wave. But for example, I think Democrats are going to pick up somewhere around 30 seats in the House of Representatives, give a Democratic speaker about a 20 to 22 seat majority. That's a pretty big pick up, but it's not going to be huge, but it's not going to be anywhere near 60 to 70 seats. I don't envision that type of swing. Same thing in the Senate. Democrats win the Senate. I anticipate it being a very tight win. But I think the more likely scenario today is that still Republicans hold on to the Senate just given the map. But I think Republicans are going to lose some seats in the Senate. I think North Carolina at this point, I would rate as likely or as solid of a D as really there is in the country with where I cooped up at the top of the ballot. I think Georgia will hold on. I think Democrats are going to have trouble in Maine. I think Democrats are still going to have trouble in Texas, although it's going to be closer in Iowa. In Alaska. I mean, these are Ruby. These are reliably read states in a traditional year. And so every Democrat there is running as a major underdog. I think you'll have a couple of those flip. I don't know which ones will flip. But I mean, if you were to ask me today what's more likely to flip a state like, for example, Sherrod Brown and Ohio or even Susan Collins and Maine, I personally would probably argue Sherrod and Ohio just because of the strength that Susan Collins has in Maine and has had for longer than a month. That gets. Yeah. Even though she said she'd only run for two terms. I don't like being lied to. I just want to talk about this new court rolling, but wanted to add that there was a quote about the Georgia race about my Collins, who is a particularly bad candidate running against John Ossoff, who is so on top of his game. But they said that it was basically the spending now would be just to keep the patient comfortable. Which felt like a pretty brutal, a pretty brutal ruling or explanation for what's going on in Georgia. The Supreme Court just cleared the Trump administration to use sensitive federal data to help states identify people deemed ineligible to vote. Critics warned it could lead to eligible voters being purged ahead of the minterms. This, to my mind, was always the goal, and you see the numbers always ticking down like they say something like 16,000 illegals are registered, and then it goes down to absolutely no one. But what do you make of this court ruling? Excuse me, I'm sorry. What do you make of this court ruling, and it definitely had been looking like there were a string of successes, at least for the rule of law and protecting your right to vote from the Supreme Court. But this feels like a bit of a setback. Well, there is some solace that everyone should find in this ruling, which is that it actually probably won't apply to the November elections. There is federal law that requires that that prevents voter roll purges 90 days before an election. So unless they violate the law, which is, I mean, I don't put anything past them. This Supreme Court ruling shouldn't apply for the midterms. Now, it's coming ahead of the midterms, and it will apply definitely for voter rolls and off your election in 2027 and most certainly in 2028. For the presidential. And so I think we have a, I mean, a very real and very serious situation on our hands, but at the end of the day, no one should be surprised about this. The fact that I was surprised that the United States Supreme Court allowed Trump's executive order or overturned or like block Trump's executive order concerning USPS and mail-in voting like that to me was a shock because of how the track record of this court. And so it doesn't come as a surprise to me that this court is ruling in favor of the president doesn't come as a surprise to me that the court is allowing this to continue because that is the norm with a 63 conservative majority on the court. So I don't know how much it will impact November, but it will impact elections moving forward. So what do you think in the worst case scenario that they have cooking because I am definitely getting some panic text messages from people saying. You know that they're hearing kind of rumblings about your potential first season voting machines and that we could be headed towards. Not a redux of January 6 in terms of the stormy of the Capitol, but the you know all out war being waged on your vote getting to count are those things that you're hearing or that you're concerned about as well. Well, I mean Trump allies like Peter Tickton and Tina Peters have been urging him to declare martial law repeatedly repeatedly they've been urging him to declare what is called national emergency and federalized certain elections here's the thing can't do any of them legally speaking and once again this requires the courts to follow the law and I do envision that they would in this case. Legally speaking only Congress can declare an a martial law the executive branch can't when you declare national emergency the scope of a national emergency cannot cannot allow you to go into states and interfere with state run elections it's constitutional law 101 101 so I where I where I'm more fearful not I'm not fearful in the sense that Trump is going to declare martial law and we're going to have. Police on our streets and turn into a police say I think anyone suggesting that is fear mongering at this point where I where I am more nervous personally is say we have a scenario where the house is decided by three votes and the three votes are in California and California takes three weeks to count and. Republican start up on election night and then slowly slowly as male and balancer counted Democrats take over in four congressional seats and after three weeks the balance of power shifts from a three vote down Democrat Democratic minority to a three vote up. Democratic or one vote up Democratic majority and in that case you have. Trump sending in folks to stop the count essentially in certain counties in certain districts that's a terrifying scenario because then you can get into the situation of will Mike Johnson even seat some members who are duly elected will he not will you fire the clerk I mean there's so many issues that could arise out of a situation like that that's the terrifying scenario not is Trump going to seize the ballast because. He can't believe in them trying to devise a way to do anything and we know my Johnson won't see people remember congresswoman growl the who's after for a couple months right waiting for her seat that she won but was 70% of the vote. 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And now they've launched Trump TV which is 24 seven YouTube stream YouTube stream akin to what goes on in China and North Korea ratings have been small not surprising but I still think it's important that they've done it and that's where their head is out. A federal court has ordered Trump to reverse the ban on media outlets reporters from three organizations were allowed back into the White House yesterday but then CNN and MS now were that were denied access to cover the guest arrivals at the Xi Jinping state dinner last night. What is your take on the state of play here. That's a loaded question yeah listen I mean I think the state of my take on at all is you have a president who's panicked who doesn't really love all the bad and negative coverage he's getting and so he's trying to test the bounds of the constitution to see how far he can go I presume he knew that he will get quickly shot down in the courts but with China's president Xi Jinping coming into town I think part of him hoped he would. Have CNN MS now political out of the White House for the state visit they wouldn't be there Caitlin Collins wouldn't be asking tough questions and he can kind of show that as like a wow you can do it in China I can do it here in America type of thing but the courts prevail the first amendment prevail the constitution prevail I find it interesting there at. The national archives today looking at the United States Constitution as Trump is trying to limit constitutional rights on a daily basis. I think though that this state visit was a lot of all for a lot of just pomp and circumstance but I don't think it really went anywhere there was not a lot of substance coming out of it other than I guess they agreed according to Trump to call artificial intelligence super intelligence but other than that I'm sure there's any other and I wouldn't even say that substance but there isn't anything else really coming out of it I also find it interesting I mean like. The headlines at the state visits because CNN MS now there's a pool TV reporter covering them for part of it you actually didn't really see much of it all you saw was Trump wincing at the B1 bomber flying overhead you saw too loud right and then she just kind of standing there like in a power move you saw Trump showing she who is a brutal authoritarian picture of Biden's auto pen and then the two of them laughing about an American president. You saw like you see the stupidest shit coming out of the state visit and then you have Trump TV which isn't a TV channel despite it being called Trump TV to 24/7 YouTube stream which is actually not different than anything we've had in the past in this administration they've had these 24 hour streams before but if you want to know how bad it's for them more people in the past week have watched a blank screen with a box fan then they did Trump TV same thing with a squirrel eating nuts a live stream. than from TV. And listen, I mean, people love, I guess, worlds. but like this is it's an embarrassment for the administration on epic proportions. Don't undersell the cuteness of a squirrel eating nuts. We play this game on the five where you have to guess how many nuts the squirrel has and it's cheeks. And then you get a prize, not like a a huge prize, but it is a little statue of a squirrel and I have won several times. I'm glad you brought up the auto panting. I, you know, I might be too attached to my norms and standards, but for an administration that gets angry if even a negative word is uttered about Donald Trump on the international stage by someone who's in office or even out of office. I thought it was astounding stuff and I was going back and looking at old interviews that Trump had given about having a state dinner for the Chinese president because Obama did it and he said I would get of a McDonald's hamburger and say we have to get to work. It did not look like a McDonald's hamburger last night and in 2011 he called Obama stupid for hosting the Chinese president. The hypocrisy knows no bounds to say the least. There were protesters outside of the state dinner, Texia was filled the room and Trump asked if anyone wanted to see the ballroom construction. Another thing that a dictator loves. Let's look at a clip. As a special treat and honor of President Xi and Madam Pong, I'd like to invite everyone in the room to visit through that beautiful curtain in the back. The door is all lit up and it looks beautiful. It's one year away from completion, the new ballroom that you've heard about and you will see something that I think you will really love. Anybody wants to walk into a construction site that's nice and clean and sparkling? I'm sure she is also thinking like I would have this thing built in 20 seconds. It's so embarrassing that it's going to take you a year and a half to be able to do this. But I was listening to Josh Rogan, who's a national security analyst and economist for the Washington Post and he was talking about how Donald Trump genuinely thinks that he's friends with President Xi and that they see the world the same way and that he's actually not a china hawk at all. And now that the China hawks are out of the administration, like Pence and Pompeo from round one and that Rubio to a large degree has been neutered essentially in terms of his old school, Neocon way of looking at the world and has been given Latin America essentially was like the you know the toy dangled in front of him saying like you've always wanted right to have control of our hemisphere. That we essentially are in no position and don't have people top thinkers in the administration who are actually concerned enough about the pernicious threat that China poses. Obviously you know that comes to fruition with the fact that we had no deliverables coming out about this. There is no evidence that they had any sort of substantive conversation about AI, terrorists will probably just be extended the tariff date haunt as we have it will just be extended IP conversations. I heard this incredible stat that there is a cyber attack from one of our enemies with China being the number one threat. Obviously, Iran is in there as well. Every 39 seconds. That's a lot. So yeah, it just happened again. I won't make you sit here for 39 seconds. Anyway, it's happening all the time like that. It's crazy multiple times. So the raging perspective subscribe to the show by the way. Anyway, it's very overwhelming to me how silly and childish his approach to dealing with this person is and the Chinese of all people are into the optics and they understand what looks good and what looks bad and I mentioned it. I don't know if with you or with Scott earlier in the week, but the fact that we did the red carpet and the b2 bombers and the big flyover for him and that he didn't even come to the airport to meet Trump. It's like the whole game to these people. Oh, 100% and I think Trump desperately wants to like display this like show of strength, I guess, in front of she. I don't think she really cares cares. Like he's just kind of going along like Trump. I found it so ridiculous that like they walked out and Trump was like, let me show you my heli pad that I just built in the back of the White House and she's probably thinking like, okay, it's a heli pad. Like I build these things literally in a day and because of black labor laws and I mean like horrific, horrific things happening over there, but setting all that aside, like this is not a show of strength to the Chinese president and I will say this. Listen, the White House I think is an impressive structure. If anyone's been there, but it's not more impressive than some of these massive, immaculate temples and palaces that we see worldwide, including in Beijing. And so I think part of the reason Trump is even building this ballroom is just for the optics, but I don't know how much a gold leaf ballroom is going to really compare to what we're seeing elsewhere, but I also feel like there's a part of President Xi that's like, sorry, um, police going by. Um, that's like, oh, you want me to be all excited about your heli pad. Let me show you my concentration camps with millions of weakers in them because I can pull that off and you all just sit around and pal around with me. Like no one mentions Jimmy Lai even and like, yeah, I mean, but also like, that it is crazy to me how Trump isn't even like talking about publicly about how China's literally helping Iran kill American soldiers. Like China has given Iran satellite. They dispute those numbers. Okay. Okay. Yes. But China is helping Iran in a war and I remember when South Korea wouldn't help the United States. Trump suggested, like, I don't know, I forgot exactly what he suggested, but like abandoning the South Koreans for North Korea. Like when China does it, it's just like, oh, she, I mean, let me show you my ballroom. Yeah, he didn't mean to. Uh, also, we already won that war. So it's nobody. Oh, yeah. Anyway, no, it's just a little kerfuffle. Uh, I want to talk Mark Carney. Uh, he continues his, uh, I guess we're up to like almost a month now of just bad ass diplomacy on display. Um, he was here for the UN General Assembly meeting. He went and sat with, uh, many, many New York Times reporters. I think there were like 12 in the room that did this with him. Um, he shared that he's considered the remote possibility of an invasion from the U.S. following the escalation of Trump's trade war and increasing hostility from Canada's closest neighbors, AKA us. Um, I, it didn't seem that surprising to me when people were like, I can't believe he would think that that was possible. It's like, why wouldn't you think it was possible? And the Danes took it seriously, right? And they sat as much. And that's why they, I mean, the Greenland deal we could have gotten from day one anyway. But they see Donald Trump as an unhinged character with a support team that bows down to whatever he's interested in doing, including whatever Pete Hackseth is interested in doing. So I thought it made complete sense that Mark Carney considered the possibility. Yeah, for sure. But I also think there's been no world leader who's raised to stock more in the past 18 months than Mark Carney. I mean, Mark Carney's turned into such a bad ass for the Canadians. And also, it really just shows like, Canada may not have a massive military with B2 bombers flying overhead. But they're doing more to push back against the United States of America than anyone could have ever imagined. Um, the Canadian just, uh, nationalism patriotsism, like their idea that their love for their country and their love for each other is really, um, just amazing to see. So shout out to Mark Carney. Um, and I think that it's giving a rude awakening to the American president really, it really is. Do you think he's noticing, though? Because sometimes I think that he's so untethered from reality that he is not the images of like Mark Carney and a manual Macron and Zalinsky walking around, um, their speeches, like that it doesn't penetrate it, be penetrate him because Natalie Harp is, you know, passing clips of whatever mean thing was said about him on CNN. No, I think it's, I think it's noticing because I think it's starting to notice, because if he doesn't notice it, um, then he wouldn't be putting out memes on truth social about him beating up Mark Carney on the ice ring. So hockey sticks always tell the story. Um, big, big week for the New York time, they have big weeks all the time. But, uh, AOC did an interview with them that she will decide postman terms if she's going to run for president and that she's aware of being a Latino woman could impact her electability. Um, obviously, um, what did you make of her comments? What do you think she's going to do? Um, I think she's going to do whatever she wants to do. I don't know what she's going to do. I mean, I think I, if I just sit here and predict today, what she would do, I think she's going to run for Senate and take Schumer seat pretty easily and like, yeah, that's low hanging fruit. Um, I think we need AOC in government, um, in some form of government. And so I, I really struggle to see a government that doesn't have an AOC. I don't know that AOC would win the Democratic nomination. I don't know that she wouldn't the presidency if she won the nomination. I think it's a major gamble and a major bet. Something that Bernie was able to do really well for the progressive movement was even as he ran for president, he was still a senator. And so he was always still in government. And I think AOC can model a similar approach, take the Senate seat in New York, and then go run for president in four years if Democrats don't win or in eight years of Democrats whenever the next time there is an election where a Democrat is not in office and still have that Senate seat as kind of like, I'm always going to be here, formulating the future of the progressive agenda while also trying to make more of a national, uh, brand, I guess. Well, I think we are going to win in 2028. I also think, and this is not about her skill level, because I think she's definitely one of the most talented politicians that are out there, but I think that she's going to be atop a lot of more moderate candidates, VP-less. And that, you know, we will see the, the big tent coming to life in that process, which I think will be a very good thing. Well, I was, I was with someone last night who actually told me something really powerful. I thought was that we don't necessarily need to like, progressives on the ticket. We need like a moderate and a progressive. We need, her name is Jessica Tarlov. She told me I was like, I think I said that last night. I think, I think AOC on the ticket is going to be very sought after. I agree with myself. Um, and also I talk about stuff like that in my book. I disagree. I'm one person who might be looking around, uh, perhaps to have an AOC on the ticket if he gets the nomination, because I presume J.B. Perzger is going to be running since he's, uh, the way that he governs, but also shaping up. I, he just talked this week about the fact that he's lost 80 pounds on a GLP, one medication, and here he is talking about his decision. I've lost 80 pounds so far. How do you feel physically? A whole lot different, uh, and a whole lot better. For the last two years, he has been using a GLP one medication to lose weight. I've been overweight most of my life really since I was probably seven or eight years old. Did you do this in any way to better your image so that you could run for president? I've been driven my whole life to lose weight. Yeah. Uh, the fact that I am now able to do it because this GLP one became available to him is truly like, I mean, it's, it's, it's something that has meant a lot to me. Okay, so I mean, I presume he's running for president. Also, he wants to stay alive and his, uh, he was a type two diabetic and that has gone away, uh, which is fantastic that he doesn't need to treat it anymore. Um, JB Pritzker on the, on the debate stage. I think he's going to be great. I think he's going to be a force. Me too. Yeah. And part of the reason I think he's going to be such a force and he's going to be great on the debate stage is because he doesn't actually need to take anyone's money and just do it himself. Um, so he's, we got to self-fund our ladies in gentlemen. No, but seriously, as well, everyone's like working, like working on like raising millions of millions of dollars, he's going to drop a billion dollars into this race and say, come at me. Um, and he said that he does, he's not going to rely on outside funding at all or like fun raising. So, um, I think he's going to be a force and I also think like he doesn't have necessarily the problem that Newsom has. So Newsom has the problem that he's the governor of California and California is not necessarily in the best economic position. JB Pritzker has a problem in that there is increased violence in Chicago, but at take that part of it out, Illinois is running really well. Um, and Illinois has had some really big wins over the past 18 months and so JB has a lot to run on for sure. I mean, I'm sure if Governor Newsom were here, he would talk about some different economic data that brought their economy. What are they like number four in the world? No, huge, huge economy. Oh, no, no, no, I know, but and also the crime and murder rates are down in Chicago. This is like my whole thing that you can't campaign on, you know, fastest recovery in the G7. Like it still may happen. And honestly, I think Brandon Johnson just does not help him out. Uh, frankly, the mayor of Chicago and that primary is going to be like the Wild West. Um, okay, not excited for that primary. Well, what do you think is going to happen to me? I'm going to have to talk about every single day at work. Okay, some questions from our lovely audience. Christian, Dem asks, so now we have politically motivated state TV paid for by the taxpayers. How is that not communism? Oh, it is. I mean, Trump, Trump is the biggest communist there is. He loves communism when he's the one doing it. And it's not just his state run TV. We're buying government is taking stakes in companies. That's communism. Um, or that's on the road to communism. I, I mean, listen, Trump loves mom Donnie for a reason who wants to be him. It's his favorite. That was also so fun to talk about on the five when I'm like, you think like I like the DSA, look at this guy making Google eyes. Also, if people haven't seen mom Donnie's announcement about free tickets to the opera, you must go and watch it. I was like, this is incredible to see the number of conservatives that are openly admitting that it is a travesty that mom Donnie is the one not only making the argument about delivering a good quality of life in these blue cities, you know, talking like a complete centrist even center right type person. But then, you know, making the city accessible for people who don't have the funds to do, you know, the next tickets, the US Open tickets, let's get to the opera, you know, all the great institutions that make New York incredible. Devin wants to know what's happening with Mitch McConnell. Um, ET phone home. That's what Mitch McConnell is doing. Um, he's just, he, it's elder abuse to me. They're like dragging his ass to the Senate every day for a vote, telling him how to vote, and then bringing him back home and that's kind of it. I, it's, I don't know how Elaine Cha was letting this happen, frankly. Yeah, me too. I don't know. Link, I, Brian, if you're watching, he's not, he's just in the other room doing work, but I won't ever do that to you just so you know. Um, Alex wants to know, how do you rate Vance's candidate performance? I mean, you tell me you're the one who's sitting next to him for an hour. That was different. That was his book promo performance, um, which was slick and annoying. Um, his candidate performance for me is like a C minus at best. I think he has very little charisma. I mean, he's honestly, he was the best on the debate stage with Tim Walls, right? Like that's something that JD Vance can do well. Um, but JD Vance out there having to connect with people or land a joke is, it's so bad, you know, and I'm not the funniest person in the world, but like I could do better with them. Yeah, I mean, I, I think JD's gonna, um, get better. I do. Um, yeah. I mean, I think people forget that JD's only been in politics for now three years total. It was centered for a year and then he became vice president. Like he's very new to this game. I, but I don't know how you fix unlikable. So we'll have to see. I mean, I could say some mean things about a lot of people who have held high office from like they were totally unlikable to me. Um, that's it. That's the end of the show. 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