Fox News has revised Florida’s governor’s race from likely Republican to lean Republican, largely due to a sharp decline in Hispanic voter support for Donald Trump—down 12 points from 2024 to 2025. Despite Florida’s traditionally strong Republican base, growing disaffection with Trump’s policies is evident, reflected in both polling and campaign strategies. Republican nominee Byron Donalds, once heavily endorsed by Trump, has distanced himself from the president, removing Trump references from his campaign website and repositioning the race around state-specific economic issues like affordable housing and insurance. Meanwhile, Democrat David Jolly is gaining traction, especially among Hispanic voters, with polling showing him at 48% versus Donalds’ 43%. This shift is amplified by national attention, including Bill Clinton’s campaign visit and a Trump supporter voting for Jolly. Trump’s approval ratings are at their lowest ever, with negative 35 points in the Reuters-Ipsos poll, and Florida’s net approval at -17, signaling deep public discontent. Historical data shows Trump’s polling performance mirrors past presidents with the worst ratings before midterms. The race is now seen as a potential upset, with state-level dynamics, voter fatigue, and policy focus creating a shifting political landscape where traditional Republican appeal is weakening.
Alright folks, this right here is panic worthy for Donald Trump and the Republicans. Fox News is out with some new polling and new rankings on the upcoming midterm elections for the House, the Senate, and governors races across the country, and it is not looking good for Donald Trump and the Republicans, but one state in particular is actually looking even worse. And I can't even believe I'm saying this, it's Florida. Florida, which Fox News describes as the beating heart of the MAGA movement. They also point out that Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis have posted stronger results each time they've run in the state with the latter winning his last reelection bid by nearly 20 points. But if you look at the map below this paragraph, the Fox News power rankings, it shows Florida is listed as only lean GOP. It's not solid GOP or likely GOP as some other Republican states are. It is lean GOP for the governor's race. And there's a reason for that. The panic voters are moving away from Donald Trump. They had a 2024 versus now polling on Hispanic voters and their support for Donald Trump. In 2024, it was 43%. Now 31%. That's a minus 12 point shift for Donald Trump and the Republicans, Latino support for them. And so Fox News has actually moved the Florida governor's race from likely Republican to lean Republican. Now it is still a Republican state. Republicans are obviously still favored, but if Fox News is doing this, you can only imagine what other polls are saying. And Byron Donalds, who is the Republican nominee for governor in Florida, endorsed by Rhonda Santis, endorsed by Donald Trump, endorsed by the Republican Party, went on to Fox News and was asked about this shift and how the race is getting a little bit tighter and how Hispanic voters are moving away from the Republican Party. And this was his response to that. By my count, I think there are 1.5 million more Republicans registered in Florida than Democrats. I mean, all the wins are blowing in your direction. However, we found this, okay, and some of our pre-election polling. We found that Hispanic voters backed Donald Trump by 43%. But Republican support this year is off by 12 points. And you think about some of these districts and the southern part of Florida. Is that going to hurt you? No, we don't think so. We actually see in our numbers that Hispanic support is actually growing in our campaign. We've been very focused on the issues of Florida. It's the first starts with affordability. We call for lowering insurance premiums, 20% for all Floridians. We want people to have property tax relief in our state of mimit 3s on the ballot, I support that. But also, it's about making sure we remain a low tax, low regulatory state where we can expand economic growth, but also make sure we're building housing more affordably. So these are the policies that we talk about on the campaign trail. And we're seeing internally that our numbers amongst Hispanic voters and with all voters is rising. That's interesting because Fox News is not only shifting the race away from Byron Donald's and the Republicans in Florida, but also the largest Hispanic poll done, Hispanic voter poll done in Florida, shows Jolly, David Jolly, the Democrat leading Byron Donald among Hispanic voters, 48 to 43. Now, the polls is still not great for David Jolly. He's at 42% Byron Donald's at 50%. That is ground that can be made up, especially if these polls are wrong in Hispanic voters are actually more in favor of David Jolly than these polls show. So that could easily shift and he can easily see an upset for sure. I mean, even Fox News is kind of saying that. But Byron Donald's going on Fox News saying that he's seeing his numbers go up, according to all the public information we have, is just not true. And David Jolly, the candidate for the Democrats, as I mentioned, is celebrating this on social media saying that Fox News has shifted the race in our direction again. Yes, this is the second time that they've done this. These voters are heading to the polls and we have the momentum. Let's run through the tape on November 3rd. And if you live in Florida, you should definitely vote for David Jolly. Just like this guy did. I mean, look at this. This guy's name is Trump's my president on Twitter. So no liberal over here. And he shows his ballot voting for David Jolly in Florida saying they know that many, many Republicans will be voting for you. I cross party lines for the first time in more than 20 years. And I voted for you yesterday showing his ballot, which I thought was pretty interesting. And even Bill Clinton, the former president of the United States, of course, has been in Florida campaigning for David Jolly, quote, "I'm tired, but I'm not through." Bill Clinton is right now campaigning for David Jolly at a church in Hollywood. Clinton says he's tired of the way the country is, the division, the culture wars. He says that Jolly can unite Florida. The chance to build a better life for themselves and children in the state, and he has the background of willingness, the ability and the determination to get it done. So this race is getting national attention to the point that Bill Clinton is in Florida campaigning for David Jolly. And remember, Byron Donald is endorsed by Donald Trump. Trump loves him. It's his home state of Florida. And this is what he said in August. Florida vote for Byron Donald's for governor. He has my complete and total endorsement. He will never let you down, which is interesting because at around this same time Byron Donald started to run away from Donald Trump because Donald Trump is so unpopular. He started to scrub most Trump references from his new campaign site for Florida's governor's race. And that actually is true. This is what the Byron Donald's campaign website used to look like. And as you can see, Donald Trump is all over it. Trump endorsed proven conservative fighter. Trump's name is right there or right at the bottom. Donald Trump and a photo of Byron Donald's and a quote from Donald Trump as to how much he loves him and how you should vote for him. Let's say Trump focused campaign, this is however what his new campaign website looks like. There's no big Trump quote on the front of it. There's no photo of him and Donald Trump standing together. He knows that Donald Trump is unpopular. He knows that in a state like Florida, people are feeling the consequences of this administration despite voting for Donald Trump three times. And a lot of people are pissed off across the country. And so he removes any mention of Donald Trump from his website. This is what David Jolly said about this. Byron Donald is running away from Donald Trump and the president that endorsed him because his approval numbers are so low. I want to play what Congressman Byron Donald's told my colleague Jake Tapper last night. Let's watch. This campaign is not about President Trump in Florida. It is about the future of our state built around common sense conservative policies. And the question for our state and for our people is, do we want to continue down the same common sense agenda or do we want to reverse course and start looking like Virginia and New Jersey in New York? And I will tell you Jake, the people of Florida do not want to be like those states. There's a reason why so many new Floridians left those states. Is there any validity to that argument? Now you know Byron Donald says the race is no longer about Donald Trump because he is running from the president who endorsed him. Understand what's happened in the Republican Party in Florida. Donald Trump endorsed Byron Donald. He's known for one thing Byron is that he's Donald Trump's guy. He's raised over 100 million dollars because Donald Trump turned on the special interest forum. Byron Donald spent over 55 million dollars in a primary where he was endorsed by the president and didn't break 50 percent in his own primary. More Republicans voted against the Trump endorsed Byron Donald's than voted for him. Listen, Byron Donald's is in trouble because Donald Trump is also in trouble. And when Donald says that the race isn't about him, that's fine. This is a governor's race. But it is about the Trump economy. It is about the economy that Byron Donald's has tried to defend. I have challenged Byron Donald's. Get on the campaign trail with Donald Trump. Bring Donald Trump back to his home state. Stand next to him and defend the state of the economy for all Floridians. Not just the ones in Mar-a-Lago, but for all Floridians. It's amazing. On election night Byron Donald's did not want to mention the president that got him there. Byron Donald's is running away from the president. I think this is like the '06 cycle. And Republicans say why candidates in Florida and elsewhere wouldn't have Bush '43 campaign with them. I'm not sure Byron Donald's is ready to embrace the president in the next 75 days. Damys right. Damys right. Because Donald Trump is bringing everybody down with him. I mean, the numbers tell that story. This is Harry Enten, chief data analyst from CNN breaking down these numbers. And these numbers are historically bad. They're not just bad, historically bad, setting records. And I mean, this is a five alarm Trumpster fire. That's what we're talking about. I mean, just look at these ratings. Okay, Trump's not approving. It's all time low. This is the Reuters-Ipsos poll. You know, at the beginning of his term, he was plus six. He was eight to thumbs up. We're talking Cisco and Uber here. Now we're talking negative 35 points. The worst he has ever been in the Reuters-Ipsos poll. Among independents, he's 54 points underwater. I mean, this, this is down there with Jack Cousteau and the Little Mermaid. This is how low Trump is right now. The worst he's ever been in the Reuters-Ipsos poll. - Worst ever. - Is this some kind of anomaly? - It is not some type of anomaly. This has been happening over and over and over and over. Again, oops, I did it again if you're president Trump. And indeed, sometimes you just have to go through the history books. Okay, so I was looking, pre-midterm, October, the worst ever, net approval ratings ever in any individual poll. And you can see that the top four spots for the worst are all occupied by a very similar looking gentleman. Sometimes the pictures really do tell the story. Trump, Trump, Trump. And then Trump, NBC, ABC, Ipsos, Reuters-Ipsos, and the Pew Research Center, all at least 31 points underwater. When I was digging through the data sets, the worst ever in in October was in fact Harry S. Truman, who was 30 points underwater. And these numbers exceed all of them. So worst, wow. Wow, the top four spots in worst approval number polling for a president going into the midterms.
is occupied by Trump, Trump, Trump, and Trump. And that's why Byron Donalds and all these Republicans are running away from him, and you know, you just take a look at the state of Florida. This is according to Newsweek, the net approval rating for Donald Trump is negative 17. So of course Byron Donalds doesn't want to campaign with Donald Trump. He's negative 17 points underwater. It's kind of straphically bad. And of course Donald Trump has no idea why this is going on. He says, I don't know why presidents lose the midterm. I don't know why the polls show us down, you know. We know why, we know why. But look, I will leave the video there. I just wanted to show you this Fox News shift for Republicans away from the Republicans in Florida toward the Democrats. And I have no idea what's going to happen in the Florida's governor's race. I'd say, of course, Republicans are still favored. It's a very Republican state. Unfortunately, it's not, you know, the state that voted. It's not the same state that voted for Barack Obama. But it's something to keep an eye on. I will leave the video there. Thank you so much for watching. Please make sure to subscribe down below, drop a like on the video, comment. Let me know what you think about this story and everything we just talked about. Have an amazing rest of your day, and we will talk soon.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Fox News has downgraded Florida’s governor’s race from likely Republican to lean Republican, citing a significant drop in Hispanic voter support for Donald Trump.
Hispanic support for Donald Trump fell from 43% in 2024 to 31% in current polling, reflecting a 12-point decline and shifting political dynamics in Florida.
Despite a larger Republican registration base, Republican candidates like Byron Donalds are losing ground among Hispanic voters, with David Jolly now leading in that demographic at 48% to 43%.
Byron Donalds, endorsed by Donald Trump, has distanced himself from Trump in campaign messaging, removing references to the president from his official site amid declining approval ratings.
National attention is growing, with former President Bill Clinton campaigning for David Jolly and a prominent Trump supporter voting for Jolly, signaling cross-party momentum.
Trump’s approval ratings are at a historic low, with negative 35 points in the Reuters-Ipsos poll and -17 net approval in Florida, undermining Republican appeal in key states.
Historical data shows Trump’s polling performance is comparable to past presidents with the worst approval ratings before midterms, indicating a broader political trend.
The Florida race is now seen as a potential upset, driven by voter fatigue with Trump’s policies and a shift toward common-sense, issue-based conservative alternatives.
Summary:
Fox News has revised Florida’s governor’s race from likely Republican to lean Republican, largely due to a sharp decline in Hispanic voter support for Donald Trump—down 12 points from 2024 to 2025. Despite Florida’s traditionally strong Republican base, growing disaffection with Trump’s policies is evident, reflected in both polling and campaign strategies. Republican nominee Byron Donalds, once heavily endorsed by Trump, has distanced himself from the president, removing Trump references from his campaign website and repositioning the race around state-specific economic issues like affordable housing and insurance.
Meanwhile, Democrat David Jolly is gaining traction, especially among Hispanic voters, with polling showing him at 48% versus Donalds’ 43%. This shift is amplified by national attention, including Bill Clinton’s campaign visit and a Trump supporter voting for Jolly. Trump’s approval ratings are at their lowest ever, with negative 35 points in the Reuters-Ipsos poll, and Florida’s net approval at -17, signaling deep public discontent.
Historical data shows Trump’s polling performance mirrors past presidents with the worst ratings before midterms. The race is now seen as a potential upset, with state-level dynamics, voter fatigue, and policy focus creating a shifting political landscape where traditional Republican appeal is weakening.
FAQs
Fox News has downgraded Florida's governor's race from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican' due to a significant decline in Hispanic voter support for Donald Trump, dropping from 43% to 31% in recent polling.
Hispanic voters have shown declining support for Donald Trump, with polling indicating a 12-point drop from 43% to 31%, likely driven by economic concerns and dissatisfaction with the current administration's policies.
While Byron Donalds was initially endorsed by Donald Trump, he has distanced himself from Trump in recent campaign materials, removing references to Trump from his campaign website to avoid backlash from voters disenchanted with the president.
The largest Hispanic voter poll in Florida shows David Jolly leading Byron Donalds with 48% to 43%, suggesting a potential shift in the race, especially if polling data is inaccurate or voter sentiment changes.
Bill Clinton is campaigning for David Jolly to appeal to voters seeking unity and stability, emphasizing his belief that Jolly can unify Florida and build a better future amid national division and cultural polarization.
Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to negative 35 points in the Reuters-Ipsos poll, the lowest in his presidency, with independents rating him 54 points below neutral, indicating widespread dissatisfaction.
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