Trump Demands Hormuz Reopening; Israel Agrees to Lebanon Talks

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That's Bloomberg This Weekend. Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7am Eastern. Take us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, Radio, and wherever you get your podcasts. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Here in the U.S. and Iran are headed for high level talks in Pakistan tomorrow on ending their six week war with new threats from President Trump. In a series of social media posts, the president warned Iran against charging fees on tankers to go through the straight of hormones. And he said Iran was doing a dishonorable job of allowing oil through the waterway. Bloomberg's Jumana Bersetshi reports both sides are still very far apart ahead of tomorrow's discussions. The U.S. once again reiterating their principles, which is zero enrichment policy for Iran limiting their ballistic weapons, a full unconditional reopening of the straight of hormones, and limiting the funding for some of their military proxies in the region. Iran, on the other side, have been saying that they want a full cessation of hostilities, war reparations, assurances from the U.S. that they won't strike again, in addition to their ability to number one, maintain these group of proxies around the region, including his Bala, which is a key point for them. And the new one, which is they are asserting that they have right of sovereignty over the straight of hormones. And clearly that is a non-starter, but is also a condition that did not exist before the war started six weeks ago. And Bloomberg's Jumana Bersetshi reports despite his latest threats, President Trump still says he's optimistic about reaching a deal with Iran. And they've been, what if this weekend's talks and with no deal, Jennifer Welch, is chief a Geo-economics analyst for Bloomberg economics? >> If Iran is seen as still not making good on its promise to reopen the straight of her moves, which Trump said was critical to the ceasefire, he really has two choices. He can either threaten as he has to use military force against them saying that the ceasefire is now null and void. But I think the bar for that is rather high. This is an unpopular war in the United States. Gas prices are still rather high. He's clearly looking for an exit ramp. So that leads to the second option, which is diplomacy. And I think that's why we are seeing talks happening this weekend. Jennifer Welch with Bloomberg economics says Vice President J.D. Vance will lead the U.S. delegation in Islamabad tomorrow, along with on voice Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner. >> And Karen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to hold talks with Lebanon. This comes as President Trump said the Israeli leader is in his words, going to low key it, with strikes on the war-weary country. Still, Netanyahu is vowing to keep fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. >> The war is upon him, and he gave back him. >> Dear residents of the North, I am proud of you. You continue to stand strong. I want to tell you there is no ceasefire in Lebanon. We will continue to strike Hezbollah with great force. We will not stop until we restore your security. Benjamin Netanyahu spoke through an interpreter there. The Lebanese health ministry says the death toll from Israel's offensive this week left more than 300 dead. >> And a reminder, Nathan to stay with Bloomberg for the latest developments out of the Middle East to Bloomberg this weekend with David Gura, Christina Rafini and Lisa Mateo will have a live coverage and analysis of the U.S. Iran talks. Tune in tomorrow and Sunday from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, TV and the Bloomberg Business App. >> And as we close out this volatile trading week, Karen Oil is on the rise as risks to global energy supplies continue to grow. According to Saudi Arabia's state run news agency, the kingdom has lost nearly 600,000 barrels a day of production capacity as a result of Iranian attacks. Will Kennedy covers energy markets for Bloomberg? >> It's become clear that the war has done meaningful damage to the energy industry in the region. That's an example of how long the conflict will linger and the fact that the economy in the market globally should expect oil prices to remain elevated for some time to come. >> Bloomberg's book Kennedy says markets face a daily short fall of more than 10 million barrels. That's roughly one tenth of global demand due to the effective closure of the straight of hormones. >> Nathan, let's turn to the equity markets now where futures are lower to close out. The week stocks are coming off seven straight days a day and that's the longest winning streak since October. Robert Row is head of global strategy at city group research. >> I think the news over the last two days has been encouraged, but I don't think we're out of the woods yet. And I think the markets priced themselves that way. We haven't had a full recovery or full reversal of the risk aversion that took place in the market. And I think it's a wait and see for the market right now. >> City group research is at Robert Row, the S&P 500 is down nearly 1% since the war began. On the other hand, oil is up 46%. While the other major story out of Washington, DC is coming from Melania Trump, the first lady took to a White House podium yesterday to deny any ties to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. >> The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today. Individuals lying about me, a devoid of ethical standards, humility and respect. >> An error on camera statement Melania Trump said she never had a relationship with Epstein and only had casual correspondence with his accomplice Galein Maxwell. She did not give specifics on what she called numerous fake images and statements about her and Epstein, but she said she wants to uncover the truth. I call on Congress to provide the women who have been victimized by Epstein with the public hearing specifically centered around the survivors. >> Following first lady Melania Trump statement, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, Robert Garcia said he agrees that a hearing should be held immediately. >> Earlier this week, Karen Wall Street's top leaders were called to an urgent meeting at the Treasury Department. Bloomberg News has learned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jay Powell called this meeting over concerns that anthropics, latest artificial intelligence model, could usher in an era of greater cyber risk. Sources say the meeting was intended to make sure banks were aware of possible future risks and taking precautions to defend their systems. Andthropics Mythos is a more powerful system that the AI firm has said is capable of identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser when directed by a user to do so. The Pentagon recently labeled anthropic a supply chain risk. >> Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg, some Michael Barr, Michael Good Morning. >> Good morning, Karen. The Artemis II astronauts are tidying up their lunar cruiser for this evening's return to Earth. The three Americans and one Canadian are reflecting on their historic journey around the moon. Lunar explorers set a new distance record during Monday's lunar fly by. Artemis II is naming for splash down in the Pacific off the San Diego coast. Jeff Radigan is the lead flight director for the Artemis II mission. >> In my head about an hour and a half of things that have to go right, they're coming home pretty fast. As Orion enters Earth's atmosphere, it will travel nearly 24,000 miles per hour. Then parachutes will deploy slowing down spacecraft as its splash is down. A former New York police sergeant was sentenced from three to nine years in prison after he threw a cooler out of fleeing drug suspects who died when he lost control of his scooter. Defense attorneys for Eric Durand say they are appealing the sentence, attorney Arthur Idella. >> It wasn't like so, my God, this is the first time someone's getting away. Let me stop them. It was holy cow. Here's a motorcycle. It's about to hit these guys. What do I do? Boom, boom. >> More than 11,000 officers signed a petition pushing for Durand not to go to prison. However, community members and activists disagreed. Hang new some is with Black Lives Matter greater New York. It is a very seldom occurrence that justice prevails when a cop kills a black and brown person. But today in the Bronx, we got it right. >> Audio courtesy of ABC7, Dupre, who was 30 was killed in 2023. The husband of a Michigan woman who went missing and the Bahamas has now been arrested. Brian Hooker is in the custody after he says his wife fell from a small boat that they were taking to get to their yacht. who denies any wrongdoing says she fed. into the water and was swept away. Global news 24 hours a day. And whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now, Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg caring. - Thanks, Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. And for that, we bring in John Staschauer. - Thanks, there are only three golfers of one back-to-back masters. There are three of the all-time greats. Jack Nickless, Nick Fowl, though, and Tiger Woods, Rory McAroy trying to join the club, just had his best masters opening rounds since 2011, a 500 par 67 McAroy tied for the lead with Sam Burns. - Kyle Lachaki and Las Vegas, the frozen four semi-finals and wins for Wisconsin and Denver who beat Michigan and double overtime. The Wolverines were trying to win the hockey championship the same week they won it in basketball. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update. - Stay with us, more from Bloomberg Daybreak, coming up after this. - Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made. - And I'm Caroline Hedgett in London with the hosts of the Bluebeck Daybreak Europe podcast. We're up early every week day, keeping an eye on what's happening across Europe and around the world. - We do it early, so the news is fresh, not recycled, and so you know what actually matters as the day gets going. - From Brussels, I'm following the politics, policy, and the people, shaping the European Union right now. - And from London, I'm looking at what all that means for markets, money, and the wider economy. - We've got reporters across Europe and around the globe feeding in as stories break. - So whether it's geopolitics, energy, tech, or markets, you're hearing it while it happens. - It's smart, calm, and to the point. - And it fits into your morning. - You can find new episodes of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast by 7am in Dublin or 8am in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris. - On Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. - Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio. - Nationwide on serious XM and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. - Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager, head of high stakes talks between the US and Iran. Tomorrow, President Trump is ramping up threats over the straight of hormones, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is promising to keep up the fight on a parallel front in Lebanon. - We continue to strike Hezbollah with force, and we will not stop until we restore your security. Our great achievements both in Iran and against the axis of evil have brought a story of change in Israel's status in the region. - Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke through an interpreter in an address to the nation, joining us this morning from Jerusalem is Bloomberg News reporter Dan Williams. Dan, how tenuous is the ceasefire this morning ahead of tomorrow's talks? Good morning. - Good morning, Nathan. Well, the ceasefire appears to be largely holding, at least sufficiently to allow for that first round of talks to kick off tomorrow in Pakistan, hosted by Pakistan. It is worth noting, however, that yes, strikes have continued to a small degree in the Gulf, and as you noted, there has been some consternation and recrimination over Israel's continued offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, especially a series of bolt out of the blue strikes on Wednesday that caused a large casualty toll, including civilians. Israel says it targeted a hidden Hezbollah fighters. Now, according to both Israel and the United States, Lebanon is not part of that ceasefire. Trump said so explicitly as the outset, as did Netanyahu. It appears, however, that there has been a rethink given the extent of those casualties on Wednesday, and that these rallies are scaling down the offensive to a degree. Hezbollah meanwhile showing it's still in the fight with launches overnight, including deep into these really interior, some 200 kilometers in. That's the upper end of the Hezbollah arsenal, what remains of it. It's rocket arsenal. That hasn't caused significant damage or casualties, but nonetheless, it's a reminder to Israelis that they want to conclude this war at least with a change of the security situation on their northern front with Lebanon. The question is whether that balance will be sustained sufficiently to let the ceasefire talks continue. Keep in mind that Iran does want the ceasefire to apply to Lebanon. It wants to safeguard Hezbollah. It's ally, it's most powerful, guerrilla ally in the region. And Pakistan, the intermediary has spoken similarly. So at the outset, there is a disagreement between the parties as to the basic terms of the ceasefire. Nonetheless, it would appear that the US and Iran are sufficiently interested in the ceasefire to keep those negotiations going. >> So we have this disagreement over Lebanon and over the state of Hormuz with these threats posted on social media from President Trump over allowing oil through in our last minute, Dan, what's the risk that these new threats derail the talks? >> Again, as far as Trump is concerned, much of the world, Hormuz is key. It's key that this is what brought Trump to this position. The Americans say that that's where this entire ceasefire begins. It's clear the Iranians want to make sure they don't give up anything too soon. So I think that will become far clearer tomorrow when the talks begin or when the delegates emerge from the talks to see if something can be achieved in Hormuz's industry that would lead to the rest of the ceasefire unfurling its planned at least in the coming two weeks. >> This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the story's making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. >> Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. >> You can also listen live each morning, starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 991 in Washington, Bloomberg 92 9 in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius XM channel 121. >> Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces. >> And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it. 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