581. Trump and Putin vs. Zelensky: Is Europe Sleepwalking into Disaster?

During the four years plus of this wretched war in Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky has had some good weeks and he's had some bad weeks as he's tried to stave off the existential threat posed by Putin in Russia. By any reckoning, last week was a bad one, near non-stop military assault from Russia on civilian infrastructure and civilian life. But perhaps even more worrying, the clear sense from diesel deals and sanctions lifting, satellite switch-off and relentless anti-Zelensky rhetoric that Donald Trump is now firmly on Russia's side. That he wants Ukraine just to give up so that he can get the oil price down in the medium term and he can do big business deals with Putin in the long term. Today, Zelensky is in Norway as he carries on his relentless campaign to try to keep the Allies on side. Rory and I are in Oslo as well and last night we were able to have dinner with Norway's Prime Minister, Jonas Garstora. Like all European leaders, he is facing this extraordinary challenge. How do you keep Europe safe? While we have this aggressive Russia discussion, what role does Ukraine's success or failure play in answering that key question? This episode is powered by Fuse Energy. Most energy companies are counting on you doing absolutely nothing. Not questioning what you're paying, not switching, just letting your tariff roll on, which is costing you hundreds of pounds every year. But the apathy goes deeper than our bills. We've almost given up on energy itself. We seem to all be at a loss. We're accepting energy's expensive, the system's outdated, but that complacency is costing us. Fuse Energy does not accept that because the energy transition is not something that just happens somewhere else. Fuse is building an energy company which is designed to bring down the cost of energy and right now its tariffs are up to £100 below the Ofgem price cap. So switching isn't just about paying less, it's about expecting more from your energy company and it only takes you three minutes. Switch to Fuse. Fuse at FuseEnergy.com slash politics. Use the code politics and you'll get a free Trip Plus subscription allowing you to hear all the extraordinary members content that Alistair and I are now producing for you. Visit FuseEnergy.com for full terms and conditions. Welcome to the Restless Politics with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Alistair Campbell. So today, Rory and I in Oslo, we're going to be talking about, Ukraine, we're going to be talking about how Zelensky deals with the current situation where it looks to all and sundry like Trump is totally on Putin's side. We're going to be talking about the horrible riots in France and we're going to be talking about another horrible incident, I'm afraid, in Australia. Well, listen, firstly, hi guys. Two middle-aged men in a bedroom together, don't get the wrong idea. Please don't. We're in Oslo and we are both, as Alistair just said, just out of having dinner with the Prime Minister of Norway. Very, actually a really impressive guy. Please listen to Leading if you want a stronger idea of his ideas and a real fan of the show. Let's start though, Alistair, back with where you were with Ukraine. So one of the most dramatic weeks in Ukraine since the war began. Friday, Saturday alone, 337 Russian drones coming over 15 power plants hit 500,000 people without power, similar numbers of drones the following day, ballistic missiles coming in, counter strikes by the Ukrainians, including groundings. Ground drones going into pipelines, drone warfare, more and more central. So first time we've seen this week, a report of a soldier being evacuated by a drone, 100 kilograms picked up by the drone, flown from 60 kilometers away. So all that tech story happening. But the biggest story is the political story, which is the story around Trump, Musk and the relationship to Starlink and Starshield, because the Ukrainians are totally dependent still on US satellites. And we're not going to go into details of that, but we're going to go into details of what's going on in the United States and what's going on in the United States and what's going on in the United States and what's going on in the United States and what's going on in the United States. And we're going to go into details of what's going on in the United States and what's going on in the United States and what's going on in the United States. And suddenly this week, the Ukrainians discovered that the Americans had effectively crippled those systems, making it not just impossible for them to strike, but much more worryingly, they were no longer able to see when the Russians were firing missiles. And Zelensky spoke up pretty quickly because it was very clear to him that this was part of Trump's pressure on Ukraine to get them to effectively give up on their strikes against Russia. And we had a classic denial from Musk and then a denial from Trump, both claiming it hasn't happening. Extraordinary statement from Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, who turned out apparently not even to know that these American systems were on the ground in Ukraine. He kept claiming Starshield wasn't there and it was only Starlink. Finally, this has all been unpicked and some great reporting has revealed that Musk did indeed lie. He had indeed, it seems, put pressure on the White House to do this and suggested it and that Trump had signed off on it. And it's another sign of Europe totally off balance, Ukraine totally off balance. Yeah, that's the same Elon Musk who's paying Tommy Robinson's legal fees in the case going through the court at the moment. I think the big revelation for me was Zelensky saying just in the last two days, we might be able to win this war if we're just against Russia. We cannot win this war if the United States and Russia are allied against us. And this is the first time I think that Zelensky has been explicit about the possibility that Trump is not a deluded, slightly incompetent ally of Ukraine and Europe against Russia, which has been the story many European leaders have been trying to convince themselves of. You remember they were endlessly flying out to meet him. They were flying out to meet him. And trying to explain that maybe he hadn't quite understood and he'd got national security wrong. We needed to explain the borders to him and give him the history. The more consistent view, which is probably what's been in Zelensky's heart for a very, very long time now, is that Trump has been on Putin's side from the beginning. And that's the best way of making logical sense of everything from the humiliation in the White House through to the meeting in Alaska. And now finally, to the reason we're doing this, which is the decisions to disable access to Starlink, Starshield, satellite intelligence, and lift the sanctions on Russia, while trying to actually put pressure now on Europeans to buy Russian gas. Well, and what we've said many times before is that if Trump wasn't a Russian agent, what would he do different? Now, that is the extreme sort of version of what might be going on here. But it feels more and more like he wants Ukraine to lose. He wants Russia to win. He wants the talk piece. But actually what he's about for the medium and the long term, medium term, short term, get oil prices down for the midterms. I think it's probably too late for that, but that's what he wants to do. Ridiculously blames Zelensky for their rise in the first place, when we all know that it's about his decision to, with Netanyahu, to attack Iran. But what we've got today, and I've just been doing an event talking about this with the American journalist, Susan Smith, and what I find incredible about this is that we get our hopes lifted, or I sense people's hopes are being lifted. Oh, well, this might be some big peace deal on the accounts. And we're in Oslo, where the Oslo Accords were. What's happened is that two very effective government leaders, Jonas Gastor, who we saw last night, Alexander Stubbe, President of Finland, are giving it a go, are trying, see whether they can talk to Zelensky. Wyckoff is here. Apparently Kushner, Jared Kushner's got flu, and he's going to join by video. But my money is on Wyckoff going from here to Moscow. And going from here, he will hope, and I think Trump with hope, with a message that Zelensky finally gets the message. But it's perfectly clear Zelensky is not going to get the message. If it involves, Zelensky have to say that we give up. You can't give up in these circumstances. So I think what Europe is trying to do is basically say, look, we've got to stay with you for the long term. Now, one of the things that we talked about you and I are both very, very passionate supporters of Mark Carney and the middle powers vision and all that. But what you're seeing, in another interview we've done, Kevin Rudd, which is coming out in the next few weeks, where even with somebody like him, a former prime minister, who now runs a big sort of American Chinese think tank, they can't actually say what they really feel about Trump, because we are still so dependent on America. And I think what we're seeing here, the event I was at this morning, I don't know, you probably know this, because you follow this stuff more closely than I do. I had this extraordinary stat, 85% of the objects flying around space at the moment are controlled by Musk. 85%. This kind of near monopoly. And as you said, we don't know how the switch off went on the other day. But we do know that it reminded Zelensky, you can't win this without us. And that's effectively what he's saying. So how do we keep Trump, and I think it is Trump, not the American administration. This is very much Trump. You talk to the American military, you talk to the American spooks, they are not in the same place. But he's the president, he can tell them what to do. So I don't find this a very hopeful moment. I find it a fascinating moment to be here. I find it a really interesting moment. And it's, you know, but I just feel for Zelensky about what he's having to try to do to keep this show on the road. So I think the thing that keeps striking me, it doesn't matter whether we're talking to Kevin Rudd, or we're talking to is that They're so used to America being an ally and they're so aware of America's extraordinary power that it's almost impossible for them to really not only say but acknowledge themselves how much things have changed. I mean, they're not preparing for a world where, as Zelensky says, the U.S. might ally with Russia effectively against Europe and Ukraine. They can't even process and contemplate it. They couldn't contemplate a world in which the U.S. could ally with China. So when you talk to them about middle powers or whatever you want to call it, de-risking, de-leveraging, hedging, trying to be less dependent on the United States, what is the threat that they're trying to deal with? And I think in their minds, they still think about it as burden sharing. There's still there was an amazing bit of what I think would be called gaslighting, which is when the Trump administration came in, they very successfully managed to convince a lot of Europeans that what Trump was doing is perfectly reasonable. He was just saying, you know, you're not spending enough money. And burden sharing is we're all on the same side. We all agree, you know, who the good guys are and who the bad guys are. We're with the West. We're with NATO. We just want you to pay a bit more money because we're fed up with paying the money. And Elbridge Colby would have said, you know, you focus on Europe. We'll focus on China. But we all agree, obviously, that Russia is an enemy. We're on the European side against Russia. We all agree. And I think this is the most fundamental thing, that what Putin did in 2022 changed the world, that he mounted a major invasion of a European country, first time really since the Second World War, that we all thought we didn't respond strongly enough with Crimea in 2014. And this is almost everything that the world order was about. This is why international borders matter. This is the existential security of Europe. This is tens of millions of European citizens being invaded. So the story would have been the U.S. understands all that, of course. They just want us to pay more. And the assumption would have been they want us to pay more, but they want us to succeed. Right. So they're going to get us to pay the bills, but they're still going to provide everything they can. And by the way, paying the bills means paying a lot of it to them for equipment, which at the moment is not being delivered. Absolutely. Because the assumption that we would have had is, OK, they just want us to pay the money. So we'll put up 50. But in euros or whatever it is, we'll buy American defense equipment. The Americans will obviously keep the satellites up near the intelligence and we'll continue to work with NATO command structures or American generals in Germany. We'll get this done together with Europe paying. What's become clear is I don't think that was ever really the way that Trump or Vance thought about it. If you go back to that first meeting that we covered, the White House famous humiliation Slensky, they keep saying we have all the cards. You have no cards. And what I think they mean by that is. They believed the whole thing depended on the U.S. And although they were pretending what they wanted is for Europe to pay, what they actually subconsciously seem to have wanted is for Europe to fail. They imagined that Europe couldn't really replace them. And they thought as Europe failed, that would force Slensky to accept Putin's terms. And this whole story about I can solve it in 24 hours only makes sense if you believe like Trump. There's a pretty, pretty obvious thing I can do here. I can just give Putin everything he wants. Give me some Ukraine, have a puppet government. In Kyiv, Ukraine doesn't join NATO, doesn't join the EU, get it done in 24 hours. How do I do that? Cut the legs out from under Ukraine. We had that extraordinary meeting a couple of weeks ago with Kellyanne Conway, which was talking about this amazing relationship that Trump has built up with Slensky. I was talking to somebody else who's an American who said that actually the reason why and she was saying that the reason why that meeting with Putin ended very quickly in Anchorage was because Trump was not putting up with his nonsense. I've heard it a completely different way. I've heard it a completely different version, which is the meeting ended quickly because Putin was not happy that Trump was unable to deliver to the Slensky to the place where he said he would. And so I think what we're seeing now, I could be wrong about this, but I think what we're seeing now is the latest chapter in that story of trying to force Slensky to do something that he knows in his heart he can't do. Or if he does, he probably loses his life and he might lose his country. And that's. That's why I think, look, I think it's great that Jonas Castor and Alexander Stubbe are there, but I really worry that this is just like another chapter in the same game. And do you, I mean, put your cards on the table. When you hear them say, listen, we can't really decouple from the US, you know, we're just too dependent on them. Is there not part of you that thinks that strategically in 15 years time, we might conclude that that was an error, that the writing's on the wall? I mean, that every. Weak almost. We're reminded of why we need to decouple from the US. You know, we'll get it when they switch off Google and Microsoft accounts from the International Criminal Court. We'll get it when they don't sell Patriot missiles. We'll get it when they switch off the Starlink system. We'll get it when they stop access to AI platforms. I would have thought it should be clear to everybody the writing's on the wall, that it's intolerable. It's intolerable to be this dependent on a country that can do this to you. And nobody should ever allow. Themselves to be trapped like that. But we have allowed ourselves to be trapped in part by refusing ever to accept that it might come to this. Now, whether that's naivety or whether that is just that we have assumptions about the United States for what it is and what it represents, which have been blown apart by and not just by one guy. In fact, this event I did with Susan from the New Yorker, she was saying that he's the climax of a process that actually in many ways predates him. She actually said, look, the Obama didn't like you guys very much. Yeah. Now, interestingly, she also said that most Americans actually do still believe in NATO, support Europe, like Europe. But I look, I think it's just such a tough thing to do. You imagine right now, I saw this interesting thing, Blaise, the head of Blaise Metrivelli, head of MI6. She did a, I don't know if you've seen, she's done a video today calling, it was almost Lord Kitchler, Lady Kitchler. She's calling on anybody. She's really tech savvy to apply to join MI6. Why? Because this tech world is where we are going to have to get much, much better at what we do. And I was watching that and thinking, wow, you know, there's a head of MI6 coming out in public and say, we need your help right now dealing with all this, this tech stuff. And you keep saying, you said this several times in your, in your mini series, we're probably third in the world, the UK. But we are, it's like saying there's Barcelona and Manchester. Yeah. Manchester City, or let's not say Manchester, let's say Bayern Munich. And then down here is, is, is, well, Bodo Glimpse down the road. We're third. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So how are we going to, we're going to try and fill that gap. And likewise, on the military side of stuff, we're going to try to develop. So you've got the whole thing of, there are different relationships developing. Canada's involved in this, Norway, UK, you talked about the frigate deal. These things are happening and they're maybe buying time. But I think if we were suddenly to start to speak about Trump as leaders, if Andy Burnham and Merz and Jastor and stuff were starting to speak about Trump the way that you and I speak about Trump. And that Carney does. But I think Carney is unique. Carney is unique for all sorts of reasons. One, he had to say those things in opposition. He had to, he, that was how he became prime minister. There was this existential threat that was posed by Trump, 51st state. And he had to say those things and he's carried on. Now, has it damaged Canada? Yes and no. Canada's actually, I mean, Canada at the moment, I mean, there he was on the front page of The Economist last week, you know, with a make-believe in his mouth, looking like a hero. He's been mentioned several times at the things I've been doing today as a hero. But Canada is paying a price at the same time. Now, so are the Americans, but it's a much smaller price. But I guess, I guess there will be a huge price to pay. And maybe my. Analogy is, is, is massively overdone. I, I keep coming back to this idea that it's like being trapped with a wealthy spouse who's abusing you in a house. And when the wealthy spouse says effectively what I feel Mike Pompeo saying, or Marco Rubio saying, or Elbridge Colby said very explicitly, which, you know, all this talk about middle past waste of time, they're never going to be able to do it. Um, the spouse is saying, well, you, you may not like it and I may be beating you up, but what you're going to do, you're going to get your own house. You're going to get a job. Do you know how difficult it's going to be? Well. You're going to have to get a job. You're going to have to get a job, you're going to have to get a job. on the russian side which is what they're doing if they're switching off star shield if they're beginning to lift sanctions on russia then i think we have to see this in a complete different way and we have to think 10 15 years ahead well but i guess what they're thinking is that they maybe would say they are thinking 10 15 years ahead they know that the mate this may be the direction of travel and that it may not be repaired even after trump but at the same time practically logistically they have to keep him as on board as they can if you you and i've been saying that for some years we think trump is basically on putin's side and yet until the last few days i've not really felt that zelensky is being completely thrown under the bus okay i'm beginning to feel that it is about to be thrown in the bus and therefore i think that i think the european leaders have to keep doing what they can but but my sense of is that it's really weird that people only now think zelensky has been thrown under the bus or that they're only now i mean i think the economist has finally produced a front cover with uh trump dressed in a russian hat no it's the new world it's the new world it's you i'm so sorry agent orange you don't yet have the subscriber base yet quite at the economist um but yeah the new world has done that so i'm thinking why is it taken to now for people to point out what has seemed very obvious to me for a year and a half which the new world has been doing quite a lot that he's on putin's side right and that he's thrown zelensky under the bus from the beginning that's what he was doing from january when he came in so that makes me think that we're in denial it's not that uh i was wrong and they were right for the last 18 months but something's changed in trump i don't think anything's changed in trump i think his policy has been pretty consistent in fact once you've got that almost everything he's done since january that he came in it makes sense right in which case my guess is they're still in denial that those same features that are making them take so long and making all these people be like whoa is it possible that you know trump is actually not on on zelensky's side no i don't think they're saying that i i don't think they're saying that but what do when you say the writing's on the wall it's a new world in practical terms what does that mean about let's what does that mean about let's put it right here now what do you and scott store in alabama think about when you say the writing's on the wall it's a new world understood what do they say to zelensky today what do they say to wickoff today that doesn't actually make things considerably worse with zelensky so i think you're probably right that in the room with wickoff and kushner you try to be as constructive as you can there's no point having a row with them i don't think you want to be doing the mark rutter daddy daddy falling over backwards we've gone far beyond that you need dignity you need clarity you need calmness which i'm sure they can deliver but the big question about denial or action is is there a coordinated intentional project from canada norway uk eu that goes through the 10 dependencies on the us and works consistently 24 hours a day seven days a week to deal with those dependencies because what worries me is they're still hoping they can have their cake and eat it they're still hoping that you know they can talk about no institutions you know multiple flexible relationships we'll do a frigate here we'll do a submarine there and that will somehow be enough and that isn't enough that's it it still predicates it on the assumption that the us is on side and the real test this week is around the starlink systems so as you say sky is full of elon musk satellites 85 percent of them not ours and actually there's been some terrifying reporting that the russians now maneuvered one of their satellites alongside the big american satellite and they're not going to be able to do that so they're not going to be able to do that so they're not going to be able to do that so they're going to which is a very costly dangerous maneuver they've done so space war seems to be being threatened right and europe has now announced and i think the european union are probably the smartest on this they're the only people who are really thinking systematically in europe about this that we need to reserve the spectrum in other words the radio frequency for european companies to be able to communicate with satellites and we shouldn't be selling it to the chinese or the americans right seems to me to be a normal the americans certainly will be selling it to the chinese or the americans right seems to me to be a normal the americans certainly will be selling it to the chinese or the americans right seems to me to be a normal the americans certainly will be selling it to the seems to me to be a normal the americans certainly will do that right not no no i mean this is what's so hypocritical about it the americans would never ever contemplate surrounding their sovereignty in this way they would never allow any european company or country to dominate any element of their defense and security in the way that they demand to dominate us and when we try to do it suggest politely that we might do this uh musk immediately contacts the american ambassador who says there will be unbelievable repercussions for europe for daring to contemplate having our own independent spectrum and musk reminds us that we can't dare to do it because if we do that switch off he might switch off ukraine well that's a great thing to say when he's just switched off ukraine and just reminded us why we need our own independent spectrum i mean it cannot be the case that we could accept a situation bullied by an american ambassador saying we're ever going to be in that position again right but you've you've gone straight from saying that's a good challenge that's difficult don't flatter in the room actually to saying things that you know are going to be in that position again right but you've you've gone to send them off the deep end so maybe what you're saying is we do have to send them off the deep end and see where that goes but i'll tell you what i think something that happened recently was when and god knows how he's been so calm and so patient and so amazing as he has but zelinski has been extraordinary but he did that interview with the ft at the weekend when all this sort of you know the the trump's ridiculous energy ceasefire the diesel thing where he was basically giving putin the right to earn more money to for a pitiful amount of diesel it was actually going to go then the sanctions and zelinski does this interview and he probably i'd love to talk to mary trump who by the way if you think we load donald trump listen to his niece on leading this week and she's extraordinary she speaks so clearly about it isn't she's thought about it so much and so what's the worst thing that you could have said to vote donald trump weak he said he was weak he was basically saying that putin has got trump where once him he's pushing him around now can you imagine the effect of that on trump that zelinski says he's weak so i think we've seen a kind of an example of what would happen possibly if let's say jonas gastora came out and said well we're just gonna have to learn to rely without the americans you can't say it you can't say i don't know and maybe you don't say he's weak but i think uh again um you're not going to be able to get out without risk and cost so let's take that styling example presumably like me you agree that europe was correct in saying we're not going to sell all our satellite spectrum to the us and chinese that would be insane particularly after what musk has just done right so what happens the american ambassador goes ballistic and america threatens reprisals well are we going to take it or not yes we have to right and that will be true for all of this i mean logically the only way that you're going to get out of a relationship with a bully is through them bullying you you're not going to be able to charm your way out there's no there's no way of saying i mean in the end it's pretty black and white either musk can buy your stuff or not either you're buying american patriot missiles or you're not either you are putting pressure on american companies to make sure that we own the ai models they sell us rather than the us being able to switch them off or not and and i don't feel that these leaders are being clear enough about that they have to have those fights and we have a discussion about how you communicate the fights have a discussion about how you sell it to trump but you're never going to make him happy because what you're doing is you're saying to a bully i'm leaving your house i guess the other thing that might happen is that the american voters maybe come to some sort of rescue i mean is it too much to hope because this this maybe i just don't understand america maybe i never have but there's a little part of the things this constant sucking up to putin this and let's remember trump's ratings are as low as they've ever been putin's are even lower the most popular politician foreign politician in uh in the united states it's a toss-up between carney and zelensky so the two people that he's been most vile about rudest about claudia schaumbom's up there as well they're actually quite popular in the united states so is it too much to hope that this constant sucking up to putin and this this pathetic attempt to blame zelensky for the gas prices that are damaging them in the midterms that actually it might backfire but he could make things worse well i'm gonna look i think it's a really good question and the answer is i don't know any more than you do um a small plug though as you're aware i've finally got my american visa so i'm off uh with the team take a lot of the uh restless politics team with me i'll be in clinton county ohio moving down into west virginia southern west virginia over a week so this is a huge opportunity to just say to anybody watching um do please get in touch because we're doing this road trip over the next couple of weeks um through a lot of the country which jd vance's grandparents grew up in the country where he grew up in these areas which uh have gone back and forth between democrats and republicans and where we're going to be asking exactly these questions so if there are any listeners who have got ideas and would like to get in touch by email we're going to be going down from clinton county ohio through cincinnati through yorkstown down into the mccoy country of west virginia down to southern west virginia so any issues you think we should be covering any people you think we should be meeting and izzy from our newsletter team is also going to be in texas at the same time so we'll be covering ohio west virginia and texas can't cover the whole of the u.s but At least it's Trip taking an interest in those parts of the country that we were not covering last time when we got into the election, to put it politely. To read our pieces in the newsletter, you can sign up on restlesspolitics.com forward slash newsletter. And I will be keeping in touch from a distance because I'm holding firm for the entire Trump term too, that I'm not going to the United States of America. A pathetic, but makes me feel slightly better about the world, symbol. Just a couple of things on leading. I mentioned Mary Trump. She's the leading episode at the moment. Done a brilliant interview this week with Michael Lewis. Second time around with Michael Lewis, a fantastic writer. And he's written this book, Blockers, which essentially is about the deep state. Actually, the Trump deep state taking over what they claimed was the deep state is a fascinating chat with him. So I look forward to that. Final point on Ukraine before we go, to do a bit of pedultery and do a shout out. For people who are interested in the day-to-day granular reporting, we don't often praise the Daily Telegraph for good reason, because we often disagree with its politics. But Ukraine The Latest, which is their daily podcast, is really, really exceptional on the granular detail of this stuff. And it's almost addictive listening, if you want to get a sense of what's happening moment by moment. I mean, they'll point out, for example, that as we're recording today, there was a strike at three in the morning, 11 in the morning, 11 at night, and what that actually means for people in Kiev at the moment. But they're also very, very good. They're very good at getting the detail on the ground from the generals, from the commanders, and what's happening on the front line. And they are very worried this week. And we'll find, you know, by the time this comes out, we'll have known what Zelensky's done here today. We'll have known if Bukov has gone to Russia. We'll have known what that then leads to. My final point is, I mentioned last week, this guy who sends me lots of quotes from American politics and history. This one comes from the title of the email said, Best President We Never Had. Nobody better qualified. Any guesses? It's your friend Hillary Clinton, isn't it? Hillary Clinton. And this is exactly 10 years ago today. There was a Trump-Clinton debate. She said, Putin would rather have a puppet in the president. You won't admit that the Russians engaged in cyber attacks against the US. You won't admit that you encourage espionage against your own people, that you spout the Putin line, sign up for his wish list, want to break up NATO. Do what? Whatever he wants you to do. I think right now he's doing what Putin wants him to do. Absolutely. But why didn't people listen to her then? And if it's right, and I think she probably is right, that he does want to break up NATO, what does that mean for people who still believe that the US still can? We keep getting this line. You remember the famous cliche on NATO, that NATO is about keeping Germany down, the US in, and Russia out. But if the US is on Russia's side, the strategy has to be Germany up, Russia out, and perhaps inevitably disentangling from the US. Okay, let's take a break, and then we'll come back and talk about France and Australia. Pretty grim goings on in both. Very good. See you then. See you soon. This episode is brought to you by Lloyd's Business and Commercial Banking. You hear a lot of talk from Whitehall about growing British business. We've heard about how business can drive change. Well, when it all comes down to it, all this affects what happens in workshops, offices, factories, and high streets right across the country. Because that is where the real growth happens. And Lloyd's are right there, supporting ambitious British businesses like yours. Whether you're expanding, whether you're exporting for the first time, or pursuing a new opportunity, you need the right foundations in place to support that growth. Like a Lloyd's business account. Right now, you can get up to £400 in rewards when you apply for Lloyd's business account by 30 November 2026. Search Lloyd's business accounts to find out more. Eligibility criteria and terms. And conditions apply. Holding the Russians accountable is World War III. He took down a British passenger jet containing 350 people. The man in the Kremlin is playing, Alex. You've got to ask yourself, do you want to play or not? You're the Prime Minister. You've done nothing! We would need to understand the policy context. All the relevant context will be structured as a framework today. Disseminated into an operation order, or FRAGO. A FRAGO that says to. Kill the President. Kill the President of Russia. Yes. New, from Goldhanger. Who is going to be able to pull this off? You're my soldier, are you? Sergeant Tom Macduff. Duffy! An audio drama journey like no other. Men like Duffy, they are our most valuable weapons. Devised as a technically rigorous, geopolitical action thriller. We have two types of friendly kiwis. Where Britain plays its strongest hand. He's the best. Against its strongest foe. Don't do it, Duffy! Bearhunt. Available now, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to The Rest of Politics with me, Alistair Campbell. And me, Rory Stewart, sitting here in our sauna. I did actually go to the sauna yesterday. Did you? Did you go to the sauna? No, I didn't, I went to the gym. No, no, it's quite an Norwegian experience. And then I had to go to the gym. Last time I was there, I'm not aware that it's sort of got terrible kind of issues of race relations and immigration and so forth. So I think you had a combination of. They're like Winchester or something. Maybe somewhere between the two. Somewhere between the two. Not bad. Yeah. And of course, and when you see, I mean, we had the whole thing with when, you know, Notre Dame burnt down. But this building has been burnt down. And there were people inside, by the way. You know, they could have been killing people by doing this sort of vandalism. And then you had the looting stuff. And of course, the looting is often done by people with masks on. You can't actually see them. But honestly, you look at some of the stuff on social media, the racism that it's bringing out is just vile. So you've got the hard right, the hard left, the folks from the Bollinger who think, OK, a bit of disorder going on. I want to be a part of it. You have the football hooligans. Just to explain for listeners, the Bollinger is a reference to people living in deprived areas, often on the outskirts of major cities, often, you know, North African immigrants. And what that goes to, this maybe is a difference to Britain. I do think we have done a better job of integration. Now, you know, Nigel Farage listening to that would snort his head off and what have you. But I think, you know, you go to parts of London. Yes, you get areas that are predominantly this race, predominantly this nationality. But in general, it's mixed. Whereas if you go to Paris, you have a pretty affluent centre. The further out you get, the less affluent you become. It's pretty amazing when you drive through. It's a very different world. Totally, yeah. And there are parts of London like that. And also, like some of the worst violence was in Marseille. Now, we know Marseille really well, love Marseille. It's an amazing city and does have an edgy reputation. But the violence there was really bad and the damage was really, really bad. So, Lyon, you know, Nantes, Lyon, lots of these places that we know. Is this worse than Gilets Jaunes? Oh, yeah. Way worse. So, it's going back to 68, really, to think of anything on this scale. Yeah. The only thing. I think about 68, I think the political cry was much clearer. I don't know what the – I think that this may be – it maybe does relate to some extent to what we've been talking about a lot recently. For example, with Alan Milburn, where we're talking about it in terms of we now have a prime minister. I think this is why, touch wood, we might be able to avoid this is because I think there is a recognition that some of the complaints that are being made – when you get through the violence and you get through the nastiness and the – Yeah. – the horrible stuff, the basic call is this is a country that is pretty wealthy but it's going broke and we're the ones paying the price. Right. I mean, the debt levels are off the scale. Yeah. But it is. If you go to – you know, I said to you during the summit, we spent our whole time running into Americans and saying, "We can't believe how amazing this place is." Yeah. Yeah, sure. Right. So, there is that France that's still there. Yeah. That is affluent. Yeah. That is rich. There's a lot of rich people who don't feel they're part of that. And I suppose the other cliche you might hear is that there is a French tradition of this kind of violence. I mean, I was – even as a kid in the early '80s, I was very struck when I first saw the CIS, the kind of riot police and the sense that they sort of have people who deploy with tear gas and plastic – Oh, that's right. – message shields and this sort of thing. So, there might be a sense that there's something in French – I don't want to sound like a sort of French public intellectual, but there's maybe some French culture which is different from Germany or Britain when it comes to this kind of tradition of demonstration and otherwise they wouldn't have those kind of police forces. But I think there is something different about this and I can't quite put my finger on it. And the truth is the police lost control. They've admitted they lost control. Now, normally in what, as you say, is a state that is capable of some pretty tough policing when it has to. Yeah. The fact that they can admit that there were certain parts of the country where they lost control. Paris, by the way. That is a big, big statement to make. And does it relate to the kind of economic challenges and the shredding of public services which we've also had? And of course, the worst thing of all is it totally plays into the hands of these people in America who want to say that we're screwed and, you know, we're going nowhere. And presumably into the hands of Le Pen strongly because Le Pen can now say this country is going to hell in a handcart, use all the social media to focus on people coming from the Bonnier and say, so that's why you've got to vote for me. Whereas the left is saying, you've got to vote for us because if you don't, you're going to have this kind of right wing police state. I think the other thing that, you know, we've got to keep coming back to this because it happens to be true. When we discussed with Andy Burnham, Russia and the referendum, and I've never said they swung the referendum because we don't know, but what they do, both Russia and the Iranians, is they are very, very good and they spend a lot of money on it and I was a bit disappointed, actually. Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, when he said, you know, we shouldn't make these Russian bots feel like they're 10 feet tall, slightly trying to play it out. They are all over this, they are all over this and they are basically the sort of misinformation, the fake videos that get put around about what's going on. Yeah. Can I get, I mean, coming to this because, I mean, you know far more about France than I do, but the American angle on it I think is very interesting because I was talking to a senior American official and I was saying, why do people like Stephen Miller think that it's sensible to support ethno-nationalist movements like Le Pen in France, AFD in Germany? Why do they think somehow getting Germany to rearm and then handing it over to extreme nationalists is a sensible way of thinking about European policy? And he said, oh, no, no, you've got to understand that these people, Stephen Miller particularly, but actually it's pretty true of Musk and some of the others, think the natural state of the world is war. Stephen Miller sometimes refers to Israel as being the natural state, that the future of the world is understandable. That peace is unnatural, that war is natural. And so when Musk says there's going to be a civil war, fight, fight, fight, which is what he says to Tommy Robinson and the big crowd in Trafalgar Square, and when Stephen Miller says, you know, the lesson of history through time is power, violence, force. They are trying to bring into creation the world that they believe is the natural world. They actually, and if you were to say to them, what is this idea of kind of armed, hyper-nationalist Germany, they would say, that's the natural world. And that the whole world since 1945 was a pacifist dream. It was just an illusion, a naive illusion, that you could have peace, cooperation, France and Germany not fighting each other, peace dividends, rules-based international order. So they delight in this stuff. I think that's what I'm sort of trying to get to. And I think in a sense, it's probably true for Russia too, that they're not describing the situation when they say there's civil war. They're willing it into existence. Yeah. I don't suppose Stephen Miller will be going to the frontline though, will he? No. Then must, probably not. No, probably not. But no, he won't be doing that. But they will. But they're lovely. But they will be thinking, this is what we always thought. And I think Peter Thiel and others, because their worldview is anarchy, mayhem, strongmen. And I think the biggest challenge that Europe have opposed to them is this, you know, this sort of places like we are now. Yeah. This idea of sort of peaceful Scandi Europe is a complete offense to them. But they also, I was talking to an American who's there, says that the American media is just, I mean, it's all France, France, France, France vibe. They don't actually talk about us that much anymore. Right. But this absolutely fits the agenda. And of course, I can remember during the foot and mouth crisis when we had to put together a proper targeted strategy because the news was covering. Foot and mouth disease in the UK and just showing these pictures of cows being burned. Yeah. Okay. Funeral pyres. Exactly. All that stuff. Yeah. And we were, we suddenly started getting messages from the tourism industry saying we're having a collapse here because everything on the television is just, you know, and it was Britain's on fire. Yeah. And now they're saying, you know, France is the whole France is kind of rioting. Now the riots are terrible, but I think the delight that they take in this is kind of, it's weird, but it speaks to what we were talking about in the first half. God, this is turning out to be quite a grim episode, Rory. We've done Ukraine being sold out, France riots, and now we're talking about Australia. Can I just come in on that? Right. Because, because before we get into Australia, I think the balance is remaining able to explain an alternative vision and I think in a way, holding on to two things that we talk about, which are very helpful. One of them is holding onto the idea of what Europe in the fullest sense could mean. I don't just mean the European Union, but actually European Union is a lot about it. What it's been since the second world war in terms of values, peace, stability, and why that matters and democracy matters. And that there is an answer to France and there is an answer to Germany. And there's an answer to a lot of things we're talking about with Norway, Ukraine, which is that we've done this. We know how to do this and we've done it very successfully for 70 years. And then the other thing is, is. One reason I'm so inspired by Connie is in a sense it's optimistic. I mean, there's a tendency to portray the middle past stuff as though it's terrifying. And that's what I think the Steve Miller's and the Musk's as well want to do, which is to say it's a world of American domination, civil war, and if they have their way, probably third world war. I mean, you can begin to see people saying the third world war has begun already, right? Ukraine, Iran, Yemen, goodness knows what. Africa, Middle East. Exactly. We are in the third world war. is to explain that there is a path through that. It's a path through risk, it's a path through costly, but a bit of opposite. Anyway, on that, though, very sadly, somebody who we both know in Australia, horribly independent MP. And maybe we get into that a little bit, because that is something which my sense, at least from Australian friends getting in touch over the last 24 hours, struck a huge chord and connects to Bondi Beach. This sense that after Joe Cox, Australians often felt that they were rather sort of exempt from this and this kind of violence. Well, they thought they thought they were exempted from the right wing populism and Pauline Hanson's doing pretty well. And they thought they were largely exempted for this kind of violence. Funny enough, on Monday, I think it was, I was doing an online event with McKinnon. And they run this leadership course that they do for would be politicians. And when I go to Canada, when I go to Australia next month, the reason that I'm doing all sorts of things with the book and speaking and stuff, but the reason that I first agreed to go was for an event. And I was in Canberra, where there's going to be this big, big report published about the what politics is like, and looking at issues like mental health of politicians, looking at issues like what it is actually like living under the sort of threat that politicians get, particularly women. I've only seen a draft so far, but this report fit to lead question mark, essentially is really looking at what we are doing to our politics because of the way that we treat our politicians. So Helen Haynes. A politician from Victoria, out and about, no protection, no security, you know, that stuff. And somebody drives into her. And the reason why people think that this was deliberate is because he then did a bit of a turnaround and they reversed into her as well. She was medevaced out. She's had one leg off. I think they're trying to save the other one. And it has a bit like, you know, we've had these moments, you mentioned Joe Cox, David Amis' death, Stephen Timms being stabbed. And people would also add to that list, Ann Whittakin. Yeah, exactly. And what's happened in Australia is they're having that kind of soul searching moment about this. But I think there is right around the world, I'm afraid we're back to our friend social media. In this report, the draft of which I've seen, two things really leapt out to me. The first is when politicians are asked about, examined their mental health, they end up basically having more depression, anxiety than people who work in the emergency services. Okay. And the second thing is that their experience of people's connection with them is positive in the main. The minute they go into social media, they just see things about themselves and their families that they never want to see. The reason this sort of kind of came at me like a truck was because in this talk that I did to these often young people who were all online in saying, yeah, if you think about going to boys, do it, you must do it. It's like a. You can change the world. It's a great life. There are, yes, there's horrors in it, but there's a really, real good reason to do it. And I was thinking about them this morning. They must be thinking, God, I really want to put myself at that risk. I agree. And I, and I, and add to that, I mean, I, I, we, we both knew Helen a little bit. I'm sorry. No, Helen, I mean, she's praying for her recovery and the other teals. But one of the things that struck me last time I was sitting down with them in, in Sydney is. Just how tough daily life as a politician is. Andy Burnham, I think, reflects on this, that the relief he felt getting out of Westminster. I remember always feeling that when I got off the train in Penrith, kind of really cheesy, but it, I just, my heart just lifted being out of that horror. But Joe Cox in her constituency, Helen Haynes in her constituency. David Ames in his constituency. David Ames and Stephen Timms in his constituency. Absolutely. Absolutely. So you get the idea that everything's great in your constituency and it's horrible. Well, other thing I'd say is. Of course, there is a pattern here, but these are also very, very different individuals. And we don't know much about their motivation. I noticed that a lot of the Australian media is now going through his social media accounts, the man who's been alleged to have committed this. And you can see his posts. And he's very critical of Israel. He's very critical of loggers. He's pro-environmental. So who knows, right? Is that. Also, his father has said that Helen Haynes was known to them. Look, there's no point speculating what his motivations might be. This is a very tough episode we've done today. We finished with a very wonderful Australian member of parliament now suffering horrifying, life-changing injuries in what is essentially a terrorist attack. We've talked about the rioting in France and the damage it's done and also the damage it's done to the whole French social order. We've talked about Trump's betrayal of Zelensky in Ukraine. We've talked about a world. It feels defined by terrorism and by civil war and always by World War III. Just to finish, we are also in a world where Alistair and I are about to go and do an event. And I can absolutely guarantee, because he often does this, that if you ask people in the crowd, stick up their hands, how many people's lives are going in the right direction, many hands will go up, the majority of hands. We are in Oslo. And I don't want to be one of these people holding up Scandinavia as a banner to the world, but it's pretty impressive, the societies that have been created here. But not just here. Even in Lithuania, in Romania, in many of the countries that joined the European Union, that the world since 1945 has been a miracle, the world since the accession into the European Union in the 2000s is a kind of miracle. And I hope we can keep coming back to how we stop the terrorists, the warmongers, the civil wars terrorists from driving us there, because it's not inevitable. And we're sitting in a place that's a better world. And tomorrow, on Question Time, we're going to be talking about war. Question Time, we're going to be talking about the Israeli elections and all that they portend. We're going to be talking about the woman who has destroyed the one thing Antoni Scaramucci had going for him, a world record. We are going to be talking about Katie Zachariah, the short-lived White House press secretary. And we're going to be talking about, pretty amazing, another undercover documentary, this one on ITV, about reform. All that and more on Question Time tomorrow. Including a little bit on children's books and a bit of a discussion with. About Alice's new book, out this week, Perseverance. Look forward to seeing you soon. See you soon. Hello, the rest is football. This is Richard Osman and Marina Hyde from The Rest is Entertainment. Now, I know you all had your World Cup this summer in America, but for telly fans, the new Celebrity Traitor series is our World Cup. Yes, every Thursday and Friday, we are reacting to the podcast. It's about the pop culture phenomenon that is the Celebrity Traitors. On YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts, Richard and I will be sharing our opinion on every banishment, murder and insane fan theory. Who do you think, out of the three Rest is Football hosts, would last the longest in the Traitors' Council? Ooh, I think it would be Micah. Of course it would be. Yeah. Why are we even asking the question? People, they vote out Gary immediately. Yeah. Micah would just stay in, like, all the way to the end, just laughing his head off. Laughing his, yeah. And then right at the last minute goes, "I was." A traitor. Yeah. So, if you're watching the Celebrity Traitors, don't forget to tune into our reaction episodes every Thursday and Friday night at 10pm. Find us on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.