Trevor Lawrence TD Refund | September Stats Review | NFL & WNBA Check-In

Good morning everybody. Welcome to predicting sports with Michael fiddle on today's show. We are talking about the Trevor Lawrence refund of his anytime touchdown prop by fanatics. Why I think that is ultimately a very smart move by fanatics and why I think everyone gets a little too annoyed when a book refunds a player prop got a lot of negative feedback that that shouldn't happen. And I have a much different take on that. So we'll talk about fanatics refunding the anytime touchdown prop by Trevor Lawrence where he decided to take a kneel on the one yard line with eight minutes left in the game. Then we're going to review my September stats. I knew it was inevitable to come on here. We do a stats review of the previous month on the first show of every new month. We look back. We rarely look back on this show, but this is going to be once a month. We look back. We reflect on the statistics. And I knew there was inevitably going to be a time where I do that on a losing month. CLV is reliable. It is not automatic. So even though had good CLV this month had a positive net CLV against a devIG line did not end up winning. Actually got quite smacked in the mouth. So not looking forward to reviewing that. But also the importance in reviewing these things. So many people are like, Oh, it's about transparency. It's really not about transparency. Right. I like, I know a lot of what I do is very genuine and truthful. So I'm not really too concerned about the whole transparency. The real part of this is to show you guys what I am tracking in my secondary metrics and hope that you guys can start to track the same things for yourself. If you want to understand with secondary metrics, if a run is bad process, bad variance, good process, overly good variance. We had last month where we came on the show, where we ran an ROI 8% north of our expected ROI. That's not only fine process. That's actually really good variance in our direction. So the swings happen both ways and being able to tell the story of a small sample size through the lens of how the process is actually forecasting the future is the most important part. So in doing a stats review, it's really to say, Hey, you should be tracking these secondary metrics yourself to if you were planned to get good at betting. And you want to be able to have that reflective process to be able to dictate future moves and process and trades bets, whatever you want to call it. And then lastly, we will check in on the WNBA game three markets for a few of these round one series and the game one market of the round two series between the Atlanta dream and the New York Liberty. I have some plays on Valkyries and wings game three and some plays on game one of Liberty and the dream will check in with the NFL market as well as not too much that I saw on the NFL market, but there might be a few places worth talking about will share the no big odd screen as we go through this will share their markets will try and make some live trades as we do it before I get started. There will be a show on Saturday. So I will be starting to do a Saturday show moving forward the last two weeks, the only reason why I didn't do it was because I was traveling for one of them and moving for the other. But we're going to do a Saturday show where I share the bet stamp pro odd screen we go book by book searching by plus EV props and market applying a market lens to these where have the game lines move where the total lines moved where the individual prop lines moved and will scour the prop market book by book is very rarely like a true consensus number and props always minus 117 here and minus 122 here and sometimes that gap is the difference in playing versus not playing. So we'll go through those markets book by book and then we'll also check in like whole NFL board sides totals and discuss where I expect some late action in the week to come so definitely same time on Saturday morning 11 a.m. Eastern all right let's get started with this fanatics. I was going to say reviewing refunding the Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown prop they sent out this tweet sliding down at the one yard line with eight minutes left isn't fair, but we've got you covered over here will be refunding customers who lost their Trevor Lawrence anytime TV bets in fan cash with a money smiley face. To which I responded this is so smart from a public relationships perspective fanatics knows exactly how many dollars they are refunding and the ability to turn that into a customer service tweet promotional campaign is smart dot dot dot and the fanatics bucks they give definitely have a sub 50% win and return rates of this tweet my response to it got a lot of mixed reviews a lot of people coming in being like yep this is smart this is a good idea. A lot of people saying well if you lose the bet you should just lose the bet like they shouldn't be handing these people a free refund a free play a free bonus bet because if you lost your bet you lost your bet you need to learn the pain of it so I want to talk about this. And I guess a lot of today's episode will be through the lens of two keywords, zeal and envy people know the difference between those two words before I explain it the difference between zeal and envy zeal will come in when we do the September stats review and zeal is like when something goes wrong for you or you're not in a great place in in one regard like having a losing month. Are you then extra motivated and taking the bad and funneling it into good right OK had a losing month my secondary metrics were positive I'm going to keep going with this process I'm going to understand I'm going to shift focus towards the markets that gain more CLV I'm going to increase my volume now that NBA's around the corner and W NBA's back from their fever break and NFL is here in full swing. And so it's like OK zeal is bringing what a negative that happened in life and shifting it with a mentality that brings it into a positive envy is like essentially wishing upon someone else the negative emotions that you feel And I view a lot of this being annoyed about a refund prop as like envious it could be in a way like I'm envious at my player prop that I felt I got a bad beat wasn't refunded it could be envious of like I lost money this weekend this is where I think it comes from I've lost in sports betting sports trading recently like these suckers should have lost to that's really where I think the hard if it is they should feel the same pain that I felt they're being handed a freebie that I'm not handed and I have to deal with this so why shouldn't they that's really the where I think it most comes from is this like baseline level of envy of like I wasn't given that when I lost so they shouldn't be given that either and I want to talk about why would fanatics do this I learned about some of the other promotions I was talking to my good friend Gibby and he told me about other fanatics promotions that they do and why he actually sometimes likes to bet there which is a funny story a painful story for me to tell an envious zealous story for me to tell no one cares about anyone else's fantasy football team blanket rule nobody cares about your fantasy football team I lost by fantasy football match up by two points this week because jameer Gibbs had a hundred yards and then it's final carry of the game he lost two yards 101 yards he lost two yards and ends up with 99 and in my league with all my home friends you get a three point bonus for hitting a hundred yards so I lose the three point bonus and I end up losing the fantasy match up on that and so give you says to me goes I know I realize how you lost the fantasy match up to that was like that was brutal he goes fanatics actually if your player hits their over on their yardage prop and then loses it you still cash he said they instituted this when quarterbacks would kneel down and jalen hurts would have 62 yards rushing on his over 61 and a half and then he would take kneel down and end up with 61 or 60 and then it would technically be an under on the vet because that's minus one or two rushing yards but it was fanatics that was the first to say we're going to honor that if you get over your yardage in any prop market if you have a negative play and you end up under your yardage prop we will honor this so why would fanatics do this is the first question this is a play for from fanatics in customer acquisition this is a marketing play this is not much to do with trading sports betting any of that side of things it's not the traders being like let's throw these people a bone it's a bad beat it's the marketing team saying this could help us with customer acquisition and market share from other sites that don't have these campaigns and people feel like they got a bad beat they see that we're promoting that we're are refunding all this stuff and they decide to come bet with us. They come to make an account with fanatics. They come make a deposit with fanatics. We give them a bonus bet. We give them a free bet. We also honor anytime you get above your yardage. And if you're taking these overs, we will honor them if you get a negative play and go under. It is completely PR-based, market acquisition-based marketing promotional stuff. In fact, doing it with this Trevor Lawrence prop, they could have known. They 100% knew actually, would be the right way to say it, that we have $6217 in liability on this anytime Trevor Lawrence touchdown prop. You know, that we'll avoid that leg in parles. Maybe a few parles hit because that was one leg. Any people who had it as straights will avoid the straights. We're not paying all those out. Right? We'll avoid it in parles and maybe the rest of the parlay does hit. We'll avoid it in straights and we'll give back that money in fan cash or whatever. And they probably have a very low liability on a Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown prop at Fanatics. I don't know what the should have looked at what the price was for this market last week and compared it to the rest of the books. Maybe if they were very high on a Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown, they have a higher handle. But I assume if they were in line with market, if not a little bit worse with a higher hold, they did not get too much liability on this line. We're refunding customers who lost their Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown bets in fan cash. So it's not even like a full void of the bet if you had $20 on a plus 220. It's here's $20 in fan cash, which then if you use, I don't bet with fanatics. They quickly limited me to four bucks. That's why I call them four buck fanatics. So excuse me that I don't know all the ins and outs of the fanatics, but I assume if you use the fan cash like other places, you don't get the $20 back if you win. If you bet the $20 on a minus 110, you're going to return 18 and you're going to you're going to get 18 back, which then you can then re-roll again. Right? So in terms of how much of that you're not going to return 38 in terms of how much of that fanatics cash is then recouped by the customer. I mean, the optimal strategy here is you're given $20 in fan cash. You should be using that on a plus e the long shot or partly. Right? You should be searching for some decent plus odds with that so that if you are going to return quick math, if you bet a plus 100 will start easy and you have an expected hit rate of 50, 50, let's say and you return 50 percent. You're going to be expected to hit that bet half the time and return 20 bucks. So your expected return is $10 per wager. If you take that up to plus 900 and your expected return is 10 percent of the time you win, but you're going to return $180. Right? Now your expected return went from $10 per bet to $18 per bet. So you should be searching for higher plus odds with these bonus bets, with these fancaches, with these promotional stuff, with these odds boost with those things. So a plus EV parlay, a plus EV long shot, ideally something that isn't a future that then is held for six to eight months. A lot of people use bonus bets in futures. I'd rather use it in something that churns quicker because if you do hit it and win it, you can then reuse that money pretty quickly and like Ben just put a different set of that aside for the future if you want to, but understand that this is a big time marketing campaign from fanatics and we should be happy. It's no different. It's no different than the Buffalo Bills seeing a father and son in the upper deck and going up to them and saying, you paid for those tickets. We're putting you in the second row at the 50 yard line with our promotion. Let us take a picture of you. Let us blast it on social media. Look at it. Look at what we did. It's a good marketing campaign for the Buffalo Bills that they're seed upgrading. Maybe it's sponsored by some ticketing agency and they bring you to the 50 yard line. They say, okay, stub hub does this promotion and now people want to go use stub hub and it was worth the cost that this stub hub ate to get those extra tickets and to give them to someone who didn't pay for them. It's not you didn't pay for these seats. You should only get the seats you pay for. Nobody has that mentality when we see the other worlds of this. For some reason, only in sports betting are people so black and white of envy and you should feel the pain that I felt. I've lost that situation you deserve to lose to. You know what else? I've sat in the fucking upper deck when I've bought upper deck seats. That doesn't mean I'm going to be annoyed with someone else being taken from the upper deck and brought to the front row. It's literally no different. Upgrade to first class on a plane. It's no different than any of those things. It's a marketing push. It's a PR push. It's worth the company eating the cost and ultimately we should celebrate those things because maybe one day they come back to us. If not good for the people who got it. Do we really want fanatics who say what? Multi-billion dollar organization between their sports merge, their sports cards, their sports book, like all of the things that they're doing in the sports world? Do we really want them to just pocket the extra few thousand bucks of Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown props or do we want it to go back to the people in fan cash? If we just have some humanity to us, it's like, well, yeah, give it to the people. Let's celebrate this. Maybe one day comes back to us. But even if not, it just doesn't stick with a multi-billion dollar organization and goes back to people who could then re-roll it. There is a chance that someone re-rolls their fanatics fan cash into some 18-leg anytime touchdown prop in the next week or two. They end up hitting it and they return $80,000 and they make a full-year salary. There's a chance. So that's really what I think is the NVA situation of this fanatics situation and a lot of people did reach out and be like, yeah, this is really smart. This is smart. This is smart. But quite a number of people were like, this is dumb. They deserve to lose. You wouldn't do this in this market, blah, blah, blah, blah. And I'm like, who cares? What does that matter? None of that matters. Let's be happy that it happened. Let's hope it continues to happen. Let's hope it encourages other books like, like, "Fandals doing the bet protect for the full month of," I guess it just ended. I talked over first. They did bet protect for the whole month of September for football. Any player that gets injured, your bet gets refunded. So Don of a Mitchell purposely doesn't take a shot in the fourth quarter of a playoff game to avoid his overgoing and I'll get a refund, right? Well, no. Maybe if you do, I'm happy for you. That's the point. Stop Gio engineering. If you do, if he goes, if the Cavaliers are up 17 points and he's about to go for a layup, to go from 29 to 31 and his overmanage points drop is 30.5 and instead he passes that to a rookie and a rookie gets his first bucket in the NBA and fanatics is like, Don of a Mitchell had a clear lane but he gave it to his rookie. Good teammate will be a good teammate to you and they run this campaign. I think that'd be great. I know he says he's kidding and being facetious. Fanatics can also use that winning parlay ticket as more advertisement like most of these books do. Yeah, that's another great one. So it only just keeps churning into into a marketing campaign. Someone had a fan cash $20 to $80k because they bet Derek Henry, two plus touchdowns, Kenneth Walker, two plus touchdowns, Jonathan Taylor, two plus touchdowns, JSN, two plus touchdowns, CD Lamb, two plus touchdowns and Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown. Okay, that's I think the envy that exists in this space. Let's go into the zeal and talk about September stats. It was a bloodbath for me this month. These are on all the what plays that I gave out minus 19.08 units, a minus 21.86% ROI, but a plus 1.1% D big CLV rate and expected ROI. Now I just want to compare this quickly and then we'll dig into this to August, which was, I don't know, there's a slightly wrong stats. August was 0.06 better. Hold on, I'm going to share it. August was September. August was 1.16%. September was 1.10%, but the difference was plus 9.28 units going 83 and 63 versus minus 19 units going 54 and 78. This was a brutal month of variance for me. It was horrible. It kept getting worse on getting worse on getting worse. It is inevitable to have a losing month. I have always said since I've made the WAP group public, any losing month the next month will be credited free for the entire group. So everyone in the group gets the month of October free. If CLV doesn't work, if the picks don't work out, then nobody should be paying for the next month of picks. And so everyone gets October free. It's happened. This is now the sixth time we've given a free month in 27 months. I think we're in the 27th or 28th month of being active. So it is inevitable once every five months or so to run into this variance where you're betting into these small edges that should accumulate over time and should be consistent and reliable, but they're not automatic. So absolute bloodbath for me this month. I could go into some of the bad beats and the terrible stuff that happened, but there's really just there's really no point too. I don't want to relive some of some of the terrible pain. St. Louis Cardinals I'm looking at you baseball. I'm looking at you where there was I think four straight games where ninth inning or extra innings home run end up changing the game for me like the wrong way, like what's going to win and then bottom of the nine tied it top bottom of the 10th win it brutal. Just brutal stuff. You could see on the chart the red and green lines those are winning and losing days plenty of more losing days than winning days. And so it was inevitable to have to do one of these stats review shows since we started doing these stats review shows we've been winning every month since it wasn't inevitable to do a stats review show where we lost. So that was coming being it having it be this bad is is fucking atrocious. This one's sick to my stomach a lot of people ask me they go fiddle was this the was this your worst month ever. And I say yes in two regards no in one regard you could be the judge. No in the regard of was it the worst percent bankroll loss like if you translate 19 units into percent bankroll have I ever lost more of my bankroll in a given month. No yes I have I remember one day where I lost 17 units in one NFL day and I'm sure a lot of people have had worse and whatever but I there's been days where and I think I lost maybe 30% of my bankroll that month especially when you're smaller better and you could just replenish your theoretical account balance in bankroll so your your bankrolls technically bigger than your account balance to show. But yeah there's been there's been months where the account balance took took much bigger hits percentage wise percentage wise. The yes in the in the two ways where this is was my worst month since I've been sharing my plays and giving out picks. This was the worst performing month to which that makes me the most sick like it it does pay me. I'd rather lose something that I like live bet or somebody else sends me and I bet it you know quietly on my own it's not going to give out somebody else's play you know somebody sends me something for you know NHL or whatever and I'm like sure I'll bet that. But I'm not going to give out someone else's play someone sends me something for college football sure I'll bet it. I'd rather much rather lose those for a full unit than something I bet on my own it give out for a half unit just it's no question painful painful to the people who are telling that that sickens me the most. Secondary second reason why this is the biggest losing month I've ever had. From a dollar figure perspective oh god it's not even close. Not even close which is a blessing and a curse. It's a curse because the bank rolls were looking so this summer because it was such a dominant summer. This summer of like the last what four months have been so good that I was going into NBA season coming around the corner with like holy shit. I had a transformative summer where I've grown the bankroll like 35% and now I'm like it was pretty much a flat summer or slightly good right I think the last four months were like since NBA ended were like plus five units plus two and a half units plus nine and a half units. So we'll do that math it's like 18 19 plus two and a half 21.5 plus five like 20 let's call it two plus 26 units and then to and then to lose 19 this month last month fucking brutal. So blessing and a curse. Blessing side being able to lose what I did is a result of the success that I've had. So I need to look at it that way too. That's one curse wise fuck. I don't want to show you my polymarket account. I share my no big account when I do the trades. You guys can see that the Novik started at what 10k just like two weeks ago when we started sharing the Novik screen. It's now under 7k so like a little over 3,000 lost there. Polymarket is higher liquidity than the Novik does so I bet way bigger size at Polymarket so that is a disgusting situation that's going on and so for from a dollar's loss perspective sickening you could also scroll down in the tracker that I have available for everyone. Fandall this these are the bets that I give out. Fandall Polymarket like I often will take it multiple for myself too. That's why Polymarket is the biggest loss in reality but every single one of them losing except for a plus 0.29 units of draftings. But Caesar's losing bet rivers losing the score losing MGM losing bet 365 losing. Polymarket losing Fandall losing Novik losing. Holy pain and misery. Well here's where the zeal comes in. It's very motivating. I did I not share this while I was just reviewing that. There's all the books. You could see 70% of my bets had positive CLV. 16% of them were flat to market and only 14 of them were negative CLV. The percent Dvig CLV was plus 1.1 which means if I bet a minus 110 Dvig being plus 100 I gained 11 cents 11.1 cents of value. 45% win rate on the 70% CLV bets. And no this is not like some CLV doesn't work pitch. Nope this is just a it's not going to be automatic. It's going to be reliable in longer samples but in a short sample it might bite you. Just like any other any other process in sports betting we'll have this approach. We have these bumps. And it's important to understand is the bumps bad process? Is there something I'm missing? Is there an edge? I'm not picking up. Is there something that I thought was an edge that is now fully priced into market that no longer is? Is just what I thought an edge truly not an edge and I just ran good and now I'm been running bad for a while to be able to understand all those things. That's the importance of secondary metrics. That's the important of knowing how often are you closing with CLV? What is your percent CLV against Dvig? What is your average weighted odds? So average bet was a minus 112. So I was gaining 1.1% on that. So I was probably at like you know my average ticket worth was probably minus 113.2 or whatever it is. And it just ran bad. It just ran bad. No like holistic meltdown or crisis. The zeal is I know what I'm doing is good. I do want to shift away from with all the volume of WNBA NFL and NBA coming back. I do want to shift away from MLB stuff with MLB being in the playoffs. Playoff markets are going to be sharper. They're going to be tighter. Overnight lines are going to be very sharp. There's going to be plenty of liquidity. There's going to be a lot of information known in those markets. is going to be little amount of unknown in those markets. The lines are not going to move, you know, 30 cents is often where if we look at the NFL board, you know, we gave out a plate on the screen, Arizona Cardinals minus 108 when we did the show on Tuesday. And now I think best price in market is minus 127. So we've gained, you know, 19 cents of, of CLV there, a true line is minus 128 even. So 20 cents of CLV against a true line. And that's a huge, huge value scoop. You're not, you're just not going to find that in MLB where like the minus 175 might become minus 184 in the playoffs. And so there's smaller edges in the MLB. So shifting the focus to NFL NFL props, WNBA playoffs, NBA as it comes, NBA props, NBA futures, all of those things. So I expect volume to be higher this coming October and hopefully the results will pan out. But it was down in the shitter this past month. You'll be making that back and then some in a month brother, thank you for what you put out for the people. Appreciate it. Fiddle, do you think Gabby gets robbed for defensive player of the year? Yes, I do. I really do. I did head to with Angel, shout out Jay Don in the WAP group. He put together a tracker of all of the media voters who have said their WNBA awards ballot publicly. So he was tracking who came out and said they're voting for Angel, who came out and said they're voting for Gabby. And Angel was up seven to four. And so I did head on Angel. And so I'll make a unit each way regardless at this point. But I still feel fucking robbed on Gabby because Gabby should have been a massive win for me. And I should have never had to hedge. And Angel is the second or third best defender on her own team. Fiddle the goat. Like and subscribe everyone, share. Spank you ever. Great. You got to cook more for layman Yones for the vibes this month. This cracks me up. This is spank you ever. There's bit he knows anytime I post a filet mignon that I've cooked at Twitter, I have a winning day. So he asked me to give plays and then go cook a filet. Minus 19 units. Spank you ever. I'm eating ramen noodles this month. Sometimes I call brownie ramen poodle. Okay. Let's get into NFL and WNBA for week number four and WNBA playoffs. As it continues on, I will share the screen of Novig. And we'll start breaking these down. If anyone has a bet that they like dropping in the chat, obviously based on the results, should you fade me? I'll still say no because the CLV is positive and so the process is good. And so if you were holding on to a cardinals 52% bet on what was it Tuesday, you could now bet Giants 44.5% and you could add those two up and you'd say 52% plus 44.5% is 96.5%. You'd have a 3.5% ROI in two days without the game even being played in arbitrage. But I wouldn't do that. I'm just going to ride the 52% cardinals that's now to 56% and I would say it's probably still a good bet. Because if we look here on the bet stamp pro out screen and we have Novig sorted by its EV right now, they're all sorted, but Novig has best price in market. That's what's flashing a lot on the screen is better than the true odds that bet stamp sorts as the market consensus. DeVig right here, Arizona minus 127 still is sent better than the minus 128. You see pinnacle at minus 140, Chris at minus 142, circuit minus 140, bookmaker minus 142, calcium with fees minus 143. So you could look at those things and say, all right, well, I'll take a minus 127 at Novig. And if I don't have it, Novig account, I'll go sign up and use promo code fiddle. Looking down this board right now, I think on Saturday, when we come back and do the full NFL board, there'll be more spots to look at. There's really not much. I'm still torn. Do I take Baltimore, Minnesota? I've been becoming more willing to take Minnesota in the last few days than Baltimore. I don't know. Not that in a survivor contest, but there's really not too much that I'm looking at actioning in the next day or two. So I would say by Sunday, I'm going to try and spot where these later week, weekend, game day, moves, end up coming. And so we'll do more NFL on Saturday, but if you have, and we'll go through all these props and we'll sort by, you know, a fan duel and draft kings and all the other books and we'll actually go through them and see what's plus EV. But if anyone has something they want me to specifically look at, drop it in the comments. But otherwise, let's go to the WNBA because I do think there are some actionable angles in the W right now. And that's going to start with the Golden State Valkyries and the Dallas Wings playing in Golden State on Friday, tomorrow, October 2nd. The Valkyries are now at home after blowing the lead yesterday. They're minus seven and a half, they're pricey minus seven and a half, so you can add these up. It's a bigger hold than normal. You might want to wait on a spread here, but I actually think it should be eight eight and a half. It depends on a walk cooler starter for the Dallas Wings has come on really strong since AZFud got hurt and she adds so much size, so much length spacing, tempo, a lot of transition stuff, a lot of help defense stuff for the Dallas Wings. I think she's a little net neutral to the total because she's a great defender, good rebounder, but she also plays in transition really well. So given that they're going to play as I James, I would say you should probably net neutral to the total. But it does impact the spread situation for me and Golden State closed as a minus seven point five for game one at home. So if they're going to be the seven point five for game two, I think it's a take on Golden State Valkyries and in the chance that a walk cooler doesn't play and this should be eight and a half. And I also just thought Dallas was had some extremely impressive shot making and made a lot of difficult shots where I don't expect that to continue on the road in the road environment and just the luck based stuff from the from the Dallas Wings seemed very high yesterday. So this is a Valkyries play for me in market right now against the odds everywhere. The minus three thirty four I think is a better price than the seven point five at this price. You can get seven point five minus one ten quite a few places, but that's seven point five minus one ten's sometimes have a have a worse money line than this is offering. So I'm going to take them some money line situation here on the Golden State Valkyries seventy seven percent come in here. And I'll take five hundred of it to win one forty nine thirty five. And I'll be on the Golden State Valkyries seventy seven percent. There are still better money lines and spreads out there. If you want to take it away from Novik, I would recommend and understand that for sure. I've already taken it out of the book. So this is an effort in the scaling still taking what I think is going to be a good number getting more action down on it going to the exchanges so that my accounts don't get limited. And so I'm going to be doing that on the exchanges that's something I talk about something I was trying to get better at a few months ago of like, Hey, I took best price in market, but I need to be able to take more than best price in market and get to place where my average ticket is still better than the devig to price. And so I'll do that with the Golden State Valkyries here. And then we go over to the New York Liberty and the Atlanta dream. It's expensive right now at Novik because the game is going to be Sunday. So we're going to get rushed with liquidity in a little bit. But I definitely will be on the Atlanta dream in this situation. The Atlanta dream game against the mistakes played out exactly how I forecasted it. They force a lot of turnovers. They generate points off of turnovers. They have a ton of steals. They shoot better from three. And so for all those things, they made their defenses very stout. So for all those things, that's exactly how it played out yesterday. There was a point in which I don't know what the final tally was in points off turnovers. But the dream started at the game up 15 to nothing in points off turnovers. And I was like, this is exactly what the doctor ordered. Dream are my team right now. So in this Liberty versus dream game, I will be on the dream. There's a minus 3.5 minus 108 at draft kings of minus 109 at Caesars. Those might be worth taking. But I don't think the lines are going to move too much here. The minus 155 money line might be good. So this is going to be a. Atlantic Dreamplay for me for game one of round two. Do you think this is a nice matchup advantage for the Atlantic Dream at home? And they played two games to end the season. And the dream took both of them, but we were able to see that the dream presents some pretty difficult matchups for the New York Liberty who just have too many of their own dumb turnovers and mental mistakes where Atlantic really limits those things and has good interior defense. They just shut down Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafan. So Nas Hillman, Dewana Bonner, on top of Angel Reese playing that defense against the Stewie and John Kwell. Jordan Canada will be on Sabrina giving her fits. And I think like who do you put Leoni Fibish on? The big key was for the Liberty against the Lynx was they put Leoni on Olivia Miles for parts. So it's like you're probably going to have to put Leoni on Ryan Howard and then she loses that size advantage. So what do you do? You put Astia on Alicia Gray. You put Sabrina on Jordan Canada. Like any of those they have they have three options that can crush you. And I don't think that presents the same matchup advantages that the Liberty had in round one. MGM paid my respite yesterday. So shout out for that minus 105. You put it the walk last week. I withdrew the money and the ticket is still live in my slips too. MGM paid the respite yesterday. Oh, because MGM had some issue with WNBA futures. I was like, Reese didn't win DPOI yesterday from my knowledge. I would have been news to me. Jess Shepard won most improved, which was the ticket I had. Thank you. Since I like the Patriots and the Chargers ATS, let's quickly go look at the those markets. I'll share BetStamp pro screen. We'll go into Patriots. At the Buffalo Bills, six and a half consensus everywhere shaded heavily towards Buffalo. There was sevens that have come back to six and a half. So line movement a little bit towards New England, but the VIG probably neutralizes the value of that line movement, which is off the key number. We open up the liquidity and the order books on this. You can start to see how much money is being offered on both sides. There's 200,000 to be betted to Buffalo minus six and a half minus 112. A lot of money. First, you can only bet 21,000 onto the New England side. So liquidity, a symmetry at this price. I would say you're probably right, Smankey, and saying that this is a Patriots by spot at this point. How much does it change? Probably not too much. Chargers versus the Seahawks, I think. Yeah. True line, 7.5 minus 110 plus 110, Seattle being the plus 110 side. Does this come off the seven and a half and back to the seven? It's moved from seven to seven and a half, but again, big changes probably cancels out the value of these lines. I really have no opinion on this one. We could check order book again here. A ton of money to be bet on a higher VIG Chargers ticket. This is one I really don't. If you want to try and cash, you're trying to cash the following knife, Smankey, on Patriots and Chargers. I'd say I agree with Patriots a little more than I do Chargers, but I don't outwardly disagree with any of them. That's going to do it for today's show. Zeal vs Envy. Envy is people being mad at their own situation and forecasting and wanting that pain for others to feel or wishing negative onto somebody else. Zeal is dealing with the negative, the negativity in your own and turning that into a positive. So Envy becomes the Trevor Lauren situation where people want fanatics to not refund bets. There's no issue with a billion dollar company giving fanatics cash back to its users. We should all celebrate that. It's a good PR campaign by them, but it's also good for the player. So we should celebrate things that are good for the player. And then Zeal is, yeah, had a shitty month for the month of September. Horrible. Secondary metrics were good. Process was still sound. Going to understand that and leverage that into more winning opportunities or more strong to market opportunities for October. Focusing on the spaces that give the higher edge, that have bigger line movements. Trying to, the reason why the last two months were in the 1% of DeVig CLV was because a lot of it was baseball. And the baseball lines really don't move that much. Like baseball money lines just don't move that much. It's still possible to get in front of them consistently. But inevitably, you're going to run into more variance because you have smaller edge where it's like when we did NBA stuff, we're at like a four to six percent expected ROI because we can front injury news and get three and a half points of CLV on something or we can obviously spot a total that's two and a half three points off where it should be. It's like, yeah, then you're then you're operating with that like eight percent DeVig CLV ticket. Right. So for those for those reasons, it's going to focus on the markets with bigger edges now that their volume is was still a good baseball summer. We'll see if I go back to baseball, but was still a good baseball summer. I think baseball ended up like plus eight units since I started at the WNBA All Star Break July 26. There's something and then bet it through like the start of September, middle of September. So fine with baseball, even though I hit a road bump, still think that a volume of bets closing head is the right way to do it. I'll be back on Saturday. It'll be a very detailed NFL show. It'll be NFL props. It'll be NFL mains. I'm happy to answer any questions. We'll go through a lot, but predicting sports with Michael fiddle back on Saturday. Drop a like on the show. Share the show with a friend. Subscribe to the YouTube channel. Drop a comment in. That stuff goes a long way in helping and some words from Patrick Beverly as we say peace.