The electric stack—encompassing batteries, motors, power electronics, and embedded computing—is undergoing a rapid transformation, becoming exponentially cheaper and more capable. This has enabled a global shift toward electrification in homes, vehicles, and industry. While China now dominates manufacturing of these core technologies, the U.S. faces significant vulnerabilities in supply chain resilience and domestic production capacity. Sam D’Amico’s work with Impulse Labs highlights how devices like induction cooktops leverage battery storage to meet high-power demands efficiently, offering both performance and energy resilience. This trend reveals a broader opportunity: the ability to integrate energy storage and smart controls at the device level, reducing strain on household electrical systems. However, the U.S. lacks the mature, agile manufacturing ecosystem found in China, where close design-manufacturing loops and rapid prototyping enable innovation. Key barriers include environmental regulations that hinder industrial activity and a lack of coordinated industrial policy. To remain competitive, the U.S. must prioritize domestic production of core electric stack components, reform regulatory frameworks to allow greater industrial activity, and use consumer demand—especially in new technologies—as a driver for industrial revival. Without such action, the U.S. risks falling behind in a global race where hardware innovation, not just AI, will define the future of energy and technology.
All right. Greetings. Salutations, everyone. This is Volts for October 23, 2026. Building
our piece of the electric stack. I am your host, David Roberts. Energy analysis and journalism
have traditionally focused on the supply side, but in recent years, there's been a welcome
turn in the other direction toward the ongoing revolution in the devices that consume energy.
What's happening around the world is an explosion of electrotech. The devices that translate
electricity into motion, heat, and work are getting exponentially cheaper, smarter, and
more sophisticated. Electrotech basically comes down to four technologies, batteries,
electric motors, chips, and power electronics.
Together, that electric stack has gotten about 99% cheaper since 1990, which is why cars,
drones, boats, and stoves keep going electric, and why, eventually, everything is going to go
electric. Yes, I said everything. Currently, China manufactures most of that stack,
including roughly three-quarters of the world's lithium-ion batteries and 90% of the magnet,
that spin the motors. That leaves the U.S. in a weak and perilous position. That, at least,
is the argument of the electric slide, a sprawling 40,000-word essay published in the newsletter
Not Boring last year. It says, while America is betting the future on AI, China is betting
on the hardware, and China has made the smarter bet. One of the co-authors of that essay,
Sam D'Amico, is trying to put the theory into practice. His company, Impulse Labs, makes a
drool-worthy high-end induction cooktop with a battery built in. That lets it push 10 kilowatts
per burner while plugging into an ordinary 120-volt outlet. Impulse is now licensing that
core platform to bigger appliance brands. And Sam has his eye on, quote, every mid-size machine
that runs on electricity. I thought it would be fun to talk to Sam about why the electric stack
matters, why he started with a cooktop, where electrotech might go next, and how much of it
America can realistically manufacture at home. Let's do this. All right. With no further ado,
Sam D'Amico, welcome to Volts. Thank you so much for coming.
Thanks so much for hosting.
All right. So, Sam, you were in consumer electronics.
In your previous life. And I've been sort of curious whether it was this kind of big
picture thinking about electricity and the imperative of electricity and the electric
stack and the evolution of global markets, et cetera, that impelled you to get into
electric devices? Or was it just something about cooktops specifically that lured you into this?
What prompted you?
That's a great question. So, basically, the storyline, it's like in the mid-2010s,
I definitely wanted to kind of start my own company, definitely wanted to work in hardware.
I was at the company formerly known as Facebook at the time. And I was working on VR headsets and
game controllers and stuff like that. And I'd realized that, you know, if I wanted to do
something like this, like something of this level of ambition, make a device of that level of
awesomeness, well, you needed to do it inside a big company. And the reason why you had to do it
inside a big company was, this has now changed as of AI and all this other stuff. But if you wanted
to make a VR headset, you needed to have an app store. And in order to have an app store that was
any good, you needed to have, you know, developers on there. And for the developers to want to
develop for your product, you know, they would need to have millions of users on the other side.
And so I kind of realized that this like two-sided marketplace problem was in some sense intractable
for huge swaths of consumer electronics and hardware. And so I kind of realized that this
hardware and kind of the reason why you've seen consolidation at the top where it's like, okay,
only if you're as big as open AI, can you decide, oh yeah, now we're going to do a big consumer
hardware swing, which is what they're going to be doing. This is something where if you're an
individual user or you're a smaller company or an individual founder, you're like, okay, well,
I need to get my millions of users before I can even get to the next thing. And so
that was a key thing that I was like, okay, that's the first thing.
The second thing was with stuff like smartphones and VR headsets and all these other things,
they had already kind of been touched by these electric stack technologies. You could argue
you're kind of pushing the limits of like what the off the shelf chips are doing. You're getting
like Apple obviously has a huge fundamental lead in their smartphone chips, for instance.
And, you know, to make a better product, you need to actually have, you know,
a billion users, enough demand to do that. And being willing to customize things from
the display, the camera, the chips, et cetera. And so I kind of looked at this in a way where
I was like, okay, so there's like three reasons why you really shouldn't go do the smaller devices
now, because like you're going to get the forest eating mocked by like these, you know, trillion
dollar companies. And then the other option is like, okay, well, you can do the larger machines.
You can go do cars and rockets and all this other stuff. And I'm like, maybe it doesn't make sense
to agree with Elon on the first door round was kind of the thinking. This like medium size machine
market is kind of everything left.
And these are devices that have, you know, basically been built on kind of like the
previous generation of technologies when there was, you know, a brief wave in the mid 2010s of
kind of smart appliances and putting, you know, smartphone guts into stuff. But like
there hadn't really been a ton of core innovation in how the systems work and how they were like
architected. And so I've zeroed in on that as like, there's an opportunity here. And then
the second thing is like, well, you don't need multiplayer for a stove. Your friend doesn't
need to have the same stove as you to make the stove go, right?
No network effects.
Fortunately or unfortunately, there are less network effects in this space. And so that means
that you could start with, you know, selling one fantastic product to one person and you'd still
be able to be successful there. And so that was just an attractive thing in that kind of early
formation process of the company. I was like, I kind of realized that these were all key pieces
that made this workable. Whereas like me being like, Hey, I'm going to go raise for like,
some sort of newfangled AI smartphone thing or whatever, like that would have been a much
more difficult ask and arguably like more difficult to actually be successful as well.
And then the second thing was like, okay, well, why stove period? And it was the realization on
my own was this was like 2019. I'm at this like IEEE haptics conference in Tokyo because I was
visiting because I was working on the VR game controllers at the time. And my pizza comes out
of this pizza oven and I'm like, I'm going to go raise for like, I'm going to go raise for like,
45 seconds. And I'm like, okay, this is fantastic. How many watts do that really
take to cook a pizza? An electric pizza. I was like, okay, so electric pizza oven.
I like toasting barbecues in my house. So I like to cook for people. And so the realization was
like, oh, and then I'm noticing that the guy's not continuously putting pizza to this piece of
it. It's like puts the pizza in comes out 45 seconds later. There's a period where like the
oven's empty. And I'm like, okay, so if you had a battery, you can just buffer the spikes when you
and suddenly, you know, you could trickle charge that pizza oven, you know, over the rest of the
day. Right. But whereas you can't get the wattage you need straight out of a 120 volt standard
outlet. Yeah. I mean, if you look at like toaster oven pizza, you don't really get good results out
of those. That's effectively what you'd otherwise get from 120 volt outlet. And so this was kind of
like one of the inception points where I was like, oh, there's now a set of technologies back to the
timing where I didn't have as cogent of a description at the time. But it's more like
if I could take basically the guts of an electric vehicle and I can apply it to spaces where it
hadn't been applied to before. Well, fundamentally, I can make a better device and I can make a better
device without having to spend a billion dollars on R&D for new displays, cameras, all this other
stuff, because the automotive industry already did this for me. And in some sense, like the stack was
ready effectively. And then, you know, with a bit more kind of, you know, you know, you know, you
kind of like startup journey details, it was kind of like, OK, well, what's the device that probably
has the most touch time in the home that we're also the flame is actually the UX for in the case
of a gas stove. And that's what led to doing a cooktop first was kind of like, OK, most people
don't know how their dryer is powered, even as gas. Like that was something I ended up learning
over the course of I think I smelled a gas leak in my house and I checked my dryer and I was like,
oh, I didn't realize my dryer was gas. And so meanwhile,
like you definitely know if your stove is gas. So that was kind of the rationalization for like
why pick on the stove is the first thing. But then it's also just like a great thing to pick
on because it's got the most disparity in peak power versus average power. I think the Energy
Information Administration says that an induction cooktop is how many watt hours per day. It's like
200 to 300 watt hours per day. But the peak power of a cooktop with all the elements turned on
could be like, well, it's not for us, but like maybe like seven to 10 kilowatts or something
And so you end up wiring like half of the data
of your electrical panel if you're in an urban area to something that's using like potentially
less power than your computer. I mean, this is just basically at the household level, the same
problem we talk about at the grid level over and over again, which we're being up till now,
we have been forced to build infrastructure for peaks, right? Which means a lot of the time,
a lot of the infrastructure is not being used and batteries solve that problem at the macro level.
And now they're solving it at the micro level too. Yeah. And I think there's a metaphor here
where if you think of the grid, the joke I would say is like, we're evolving from like the Tesla,
the Thomas Edison electric stack to the Tesla, the car electric stack, you know, with a lot of
these transformations. But the metaphor that I think has been very useful for me, at least in
terms of thinking about the grid is like the grid before the advent of storage looks kind of like a
rotating shaft that's spinning.
60 times a second or 50, if you're in Europe or whatever. And you kind of have to clutch into
that shaft, like to participate in the grid, you got to basically make sure that like, if you're
trying to add energy to the grid or whatever, you got to like turn that on and like, you know,
slowly dial up the friction until you're spinning at six times a second too. And if you do that
poorly, like obviously this is why the intervention queue is so long. This exists at the micro level
with like, oh, I want to get permits for home storage from a house.
It's like, I'm going to have to plug in a data center. And so that was kind of like where
electricity 1.0 gets you to. It's like, okay, you've got a spinning shaft. You can even think
of it even simpler. It's like, where did the grid come from originally? It's like, well,
you're running factories and the factories needed to use each other for backup. And what were those
factories running on before electricity? They were running on water in many cases, like the
Lowell mills in Massachusetts and stuff like that. So it's like, okay, you've got a water wheel.
The water wheel is spinning, let's say 60 times a second.
That's going into a shaft. That shaft is then powering all of these machines that are all
running in synchronized, you know, off of the power being pulled off the water wheel or like,
okay, then we evolved to generate electricity and then power all the machines with electricity.
But again, they were still spinning at that same frequency basically. And so what storage lets you
do is it changes it from this sort of like, you could almost think of it as like a single shaft
rotating to a network that looks like the internet, where you can basically be like,
okay, well, there's no packet buffers everywhere on the internet, right? Battery storage could be
pumped hydro, etc. And now that makes the grid a lot more resilient, it makes it not like one
single spinning shaft, it makes it very much a like self healing network. And I would argue we're
like only partway through that transition. And this transition happens at the device level,
obviously.
It started with like, your smartphone. Before the smartphone, it was like, what were the expensive
things that need the lithium batteries initially, it was like camcorders, just like that. But
basically, it was like, expensive consumer electronics now to all consumer electronics
now have the lithium batteries in them. Okay, and then automotive derived technologies on the other
end. And then we're kind of in this pincer movement where every device in between is getting filled in
now at this point with having some level of battery storage, or at least, you know, kind of smart
computer defined power.
I'm curious. So the cooktop is perfect for your purposes in that the difference between average draw and peak draw is huge. And that's where batteries are handy, they can store up and then they can be the ones to supply the peak. I guess I'm trying to figure out how big that space is, how many appliances fit that description.
I can give you a good example of this is like, I think it's pretty much everything really, let's use your computer as an example. And I think this is kind of funny, because it's like,
your laptop already kind of does all this stuff. You know, it's trickle charging off of its charger. If the GPU is drawing a lot, because you're playing a video game or whatever, it could actually locally discharge during that period, or maybe not charge as fast in some cases. And so like, we've already seen this sort of stuff, like so on computer side, it's like, it just turns out that like, you're not drawing all the power all the time. Actually, I can even give a better example is like the VR headsets, where you spend all this compute to render the frame, you try to do it as fast as possible, then you show it.
And then you basically wait. And you often are like waiting in this, the chip is asleep after the frame has been rendered, basically. And so that's how you can get the battery life to not be like 45 minutes and said, maybe get closer, like two hours or something like that. And so it turns out that there's kind of like, lots of things like this, data centers are like this, if you look at what's happening with like train, where like, they have to like, basically, you do a ton of compute across all the racks, and then they have to share all that data. And then even
the sharing of that data, that takes less power, because it's bandwidth constrained, not compute constrained. So that's why these facilities all have giant batteries outside of them right now.
Yeah, but I'm talking about the medium sized electric machines that you are honing in on.
Yeah, it's like oven preheats. Another example, it's like, your oven doesn't use a lot of power, except when it's preheating, the example. And then most of these devices are just off all the time. So like another example, like your laundry machine might be relatively consistent, in terms of how much power it's drawing.
But, like, I live at home by myself, so maybe it's, like, maybe a little bit of an exception, but I use it once a week.
And so as long as you can capture kind of, like, one session for use of all these devices, like, you're pretty much good in a bunch of the cases.
And then even within that session, it's, like, well, is your dryer running full bore all the time or only for part of the cycle, basically?
And then when you kind of look into that, you'll notice that the same thing I mentioned where it's, like, okay, well, you're using your stove an hour a day.
But then within that one hour, only two minutes are at max power.
And it kind of, like, fractally is true through that whole thing.
It seems like this pretty much happens on everything.
Your water heater, it's only when you're taking a shower or filling up a bathtub.
Otherwise, it's, like, okay, yeah, you put a little bit of hot water into your sink in your kitchen to wash some dishes.
That's not material.
And also, like, are you running water all the time in your house?
No.
And so HVAC is probably the one where it's, like, it has more conditions.
continuous load profile versus this but even then it's like okay well if you're looking at ac there
is a peak period right the grid even like trices in a lot of cases with time use rates and so it
may push you into more of a like four hours of storage type domain but it's still something that
you can largely address with energy storage versus not okay so i want to pull back the lens a little
bit we kind of jumped into the guts of it real quick i want to pull it back the lens of it and
then get back into the guts later but let's just talk about for people who are not familiar maybe
for people who have not read the electric slide or one of my ongoing agonies is that you know you
and i are aware that electricity specifically is the thing electricity is the thing storage use etc
but i think a lot of people just have kind of electricity and clean energy capital c capital e
kind of mooshed up in their head they don't have
electricity and clean energy capital c capital e kind of mooshed up in their head they don't have
electrification as a distinct category with distinct technologies and distinct dynamics
in their head yet and in my mission in life is to try to do that for people try to help people
see that clean electrification is something distinct from the larger category of clean
energy writ large so maybe just talk a little bit about the electric stack what are the four
technologies how do they fit together why those four and like what is the sort of revolution that
you are trying to capture in the electric stack
in the electric slide that big essay yeah that sounds great so basically the four technologies
are batteries power electronics electromagnetic which include like electric motors and other
systems embedded computer and the reason kind of all these things are together is like this is the
first time that there's a fully coherent set of technologies that are like a dressel like software
is the other thing to really kind of underscore here and so you could argue that tesla was
revolutionary in making the first practical electric vehicle but in some sense the model s
being kind of the first car that was produced in some sense like a consumer electronics device
was equally revolutionary in some sense dependent on the fact that they could use
your electric stack technologies basically like these were codependent but in some sense that
was as big a revolution as being an ed period and so go back to history and
kind of talk about why we're here now versus you know earlier it's like basically we needed to ride
down a bunch of cost curves to make this stuff work so lithium ion batteries i think early
developments for like with sony and like these things it really worked for consumer electronics
if they're above a certain price and they needed like exquisite battery life basically so this
landed in portable camcorders first and then went to laptops in the 1990s by the time that
tesla was able to start looking into this stuff like the key revolution that enabled tesla was
like the founding team was like oh these laptop batteries are good enough and you could build a
car that would have like non-trivial 200 plus mile range just with the cylindrical 18650 battery cells
that are already in scaled production for the consumer electronics industry particularly laptops
yeah the beauty of the cost curve which i don't know that everybody fully grasps is that every
little increment they get cheaper and they get cheaper and they get cheaper and they get cheaper
it broadens the use space the application space the things you can do with them and then if you
broaden the things you can do with them you create new industries you create new scale
you end up manufacturing a bunch more of them they get cheaper
The use case then expands again, et cetera, et cetera.
And so Tesla was sort of right at that moment where kind of realization like, oh, they've gotten cheap enough now that EV has entered the viable use case space.
Yeah. Laptops effectively enabled an electric sports car.
Now, what enabled the subsequent development is actually wasn't laptops, but it was actually just the EV industry itself in some sense.
Once there was a certain class of high end vehicles available, everyone realized that they could then invest in this and make it happen.
Then the second core technology is power electronics.
So basically, it's like if you go back to how the grid historically works, like we kind of avoided having switching or storage in a lot of the grid up until like the 70s and 80s.
It's kind of crazy. And it's like if you look at what was done, it was like, OK, well, yeah, you have circuit breakers.
You've got the ability to turn things on and off, like kind of a macro.
But not at the like microsecond level, if that makes any sense.
And so the eventually the transistor is obviously really huge.
But the big story is like I think in like the 70s and 80s, we started getting kind of these like higher power insulated gate bipolar transistors and higher power MOSFETs.
Those have just been improving ever since.
And so, again, when Tesla was, you know, putting together initial like motor control and all their stuff, it's like, OK, yeah, it was possible then because the semiconductor parts existed.
To actually drive a three phase motor off of the battery pack or brushless DC motor or AC induction motor off the battery pack.
That was also just an enabling technology that had to take time to develop and for the cost first to go down, because obviously, like when you're trying to do something with relatively high power, it ends up being a decent amount of semiconductor die area.
And then what's happened since then has been just like a revolution with gallium nitride and silicon carbide.
Now we're starting to see like data.
Where you're able to do, you know, close to 20 kilowatts in like a single unit of rack space.
You're able to do like all the solid state transformer work that folks like Heron power it and Facebook doing like all this stuff.
And then even more mundane, it's like your power brick for your laptop can be like half the size that it used to be.
That revolution has been crazy and enabling.
That means like, OK, you can throw a lot more power around with in some sense downstream of software control as well.
So you can do a lot more crazy experiences as well.
And then the next piece is electro medics.
And this goes into like the motors and the supply chain there.
So like basically I'm trying to remember.
It's funny is like I wonder if the biggest use case for neodymium magnets a while back was like those toys that you could like construct things out of that like, you know, kids ended up like accidentally eating and like having to get surgery for.
I've read the whole story of that.
But basically the neodymium magnet situation has been nuts because like in some sense, if you actually look at what's been happening over the past.
Like twenty four years is the magnets themselves have gotten better and this effectively means like you could have more magnetic fields, density and all sorts of stuff.
So like the motors have gotten better and this is like and so in what's been very interesting with this is only now is like the US government realizing that, OK, this thing was kind of like in some sense, the rare earth conversation was just ignored because it was like, OK, it was the electric vehicle thing, which was like not big and now it's big.
And then it was like toys.
And meanwhile, like.
Testing and mining and materials and all this other stuff is like, you know, historically was kind of like underappreciated in the US.
Now everyone's waking up, but it's kind of like I think there's this definite arguments with like, are we too late and all this other stuff?
The other thing that's really interesting about this is like, well, this is how you turn electricity into motion.
And now that AI has just shown that, OK, robotics is probably coming pretty soon.
There will be a quote unquote chat GPT moment for robotics.
You know, if you're on tech Twitter.
You'll just see that someone's claiming that about every other day now, so it's probably going to happen.
I'm not saying I'm skeptical here.
I'm just saying people were it's going to happen.
And so now everyone cares and wants to have motors and actuators built in the United States, much to my benefit as an investor in one of those companies.
But the way I would wrap all this up is these four key components of the electro stack, batteries, motors, power, electronics, embedded compute, all have been writing down this cost curve, their own cost curves together.
Getting exponentially cheaper.
And writing up a capability curve.
Right.
So every bit they get cheaper, the capability curve goes up.
The space of things they can do goes up.
And the combination of the things they can do together now that they're all cheap is sort of like has grown exponentially, I think, faster than our brains and institutions can keep up right now.
So there's like an explosion of things that electricity can do now that we.
We are like groping around trying to even figure out how large is that space.
And we're just like groping our way through that space now because it's happened so quickly, like comparatively so quickly for all these things to get cheap together.
There's just been this combinatorial explosion of things they can do.
And we're just now groping, kind of checking the things off the list one at a time.
But we keep discovering like, oh, it could do this, too, and this, too, and this, too.
And one of the things.
It can do is AI.
So here's one of the aspects of the essay I thought was really interesting.
So one of the things you argue in this essay is that China is taking a different path than we are, has made different choices than we are in regard to the electric stack.
You argue that it is trying to grab hold of the manufacturing and the expertise and making these substrates, these pieces of the electric stack, while it's trying to.
Commoditize AI, whereas we're just going after AI and trying to make that our domain.
And you think China's got the smarter strategy there.
I'm just curious what you mean by commoditizing AI and what are the implications of that?
Yeah, so that's a great question.
So basically what China's been doing is basically I think you can almost imagine as like you ever played the video game Civilization or something like that, where you imagine like the technology tree.
I think this is also how Elon thinks of it as well.
I would lump like the China and Elon thinking in like one zone.
I would lump like, let's call it like American finance, finance, and the other one.
My stereotype of the US view is basically that like, okay, figure out how to make the money and then you can kind of demand pull everything through, which is generally a good strategy from a, you know, hey, you want to make your business work, right?
But if you think about it from the building blocks sort of layer, it's like, okay, well, how do I do that?
I need to have Lego blocks.
A, B, C, and D.
I need to have my batteries, power, electronics, embedded compute, electromagnetic, whatever.
I need to have those building blocks.
And I would argue that like China and Elon have specifically identified that they need like the bottlenecks will be their ability to have those Legos.
And so making sure that you've got a complete Lego set is extremely important.
And then the other piece of this is like, well, AI is going to do this thing called like Foon.
AI will get to the point of self-improvement because of like Jevons Paradox and all this other stuff.
Like we're going to be using a lot of AI in the future.
Like it's going to be kind of unreal and a little bit, you know, beyond I think what people are expecting.
And so demand for all the technologies that AI runs on is also going to explode.
Then if you want to actually build things in the real world, like you're going to be starved by the fact you're competing with all of these AI demand, basically.
And so I think the opportunity in America is in.
The danger of missing is that we've created this demand engine with Frontier AI and we're not necessarily steering all of it offshore.
If we had decided like, hey, if we're looking at like tens to hundred plus gigawatts of new data center development over the next couple of years, which is what I've been hearing.
Well, that's a lot of hardware to be produced.
It's a lot of hardware that is kind of like electric stack shaped, actually.
And it would be pretty compelling if we use that to kind of reindustrialize America, build a lot of factories.
Do all this other stuff.
That hasn't exactly been happening yet.
And, you know, there's just tons of domestic companies making money on the ad boom.
But you'll notice that the tariff treatment of AI hardware is, you know, not less than, you know, what a lot of other things are.
We're intentionally not tariffing it to try to not slow that out, slow that down.
But that also means is that we're not necessarily on shorting production of all these things.
That's something that, like, I've definitely noticed and realized that there's a gap here.
Now, going back to Elon, I think this is actually really interesting.
It's like.
If you look like SpaceX is not considered the top frontier lab in AI.
People are not using Grok.
People are preferring Claude and Codex to Grok in a bunch of cases for now.
But he is in a very enviable position in the space because he's probably one of the few people in America who knows how to still build stuff.
And so they've been very successful at getting data centers plugged into power and being able to build these, like, large, stale, coherent clusters.
And that puts him in a position that he actually ends up having leverage over Anthropic, over, you know, some of these other folks, despite the fact that his models aren't necessarily as good yet.
And you could argue that this looks awfully similar to what's happening in the robotic space with folks overseas in China, where it's like, OK, well, you could build all the robots.
You could be training the frontier models for robot control like Pi or Skilled or these other companies.
But who's golding your motors and actuators?
And so I think there's this really.
interesting thing of like, maybe there's going to be a spiral
modal split in the winners of the AI race, which is like the folks that kind of control the electric
stack technologies and then maybe the AI labs. Clarify for me though, like I think maybe talking
about this in the context of AI is going to be driving a lot of listeners crazy. So let's just
talk about electric cars instead. What would be wrong if we want to get the benefits of electric
vehicles, which relate to pollution, less maintenance, et cetera, et cetera. And we just
bought them from China, which is very good at making them cheaply. Or same thing like heat
pumps. We're electrifying industry, electric furnaces, arc furnaces, or whatever, like all
these. If China can manufacture enough of them for cheap, what is wrong with us simply buying
the pieces from China and rearranging them in clever new ways? Our innovation is assembling
new ideas out of these legacies.
And we just leave the manufacturing of the Lego blocks to them. What is wrong with that? What is
the danger there? Hey there, everybody. Don't worry. I'm not going to tell you about a new
mattress or push a credit card on you. This isn't an ad. There are no ads on Volts. It is supported
entirely by listeners like you. If you'll indulge me for a second, I'd like to ask for your support.
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Yeah, so this is something where you can see recent FCC and, I think, commerce actions.
The reception on this has been kind of bipartisan in some sense, which has been very interesting
given, you know, kind of our current political climate. But basically,
the FCC banned new foreign source power invaders. And you could argue that, okay,
so let me define what an inverter is and all that stuff. Basically, something that converts DC to AC
like you can send power into the grid. And if you go back earlier in the episode, it's like,
I mentioned the grid is kind of a network. And then, obviously, DCs run software on them from
where, okay, so you're allowing foreign network devices to connect to our network. It's kind of
like the simple way to put this. And so it's like, do you want to do that without, you know,
some sort of checks? Likewise, for any sort of large loads in the grid, it's like, okay, well,
if you give other countries software,
control over those devices, there are cybersecurity risks, right? This ends up being
kind of the same as the Cisco and Huawei disputes of 15 plus years ago, where trying to kind of push
Cisco out of their systems, US pushed Huawei out of their systems. And it's like, in some sense,
there's a sovereignty aspect of it. Do you actually control the grid or the network that
you're connected to? Okay, but that's an argument for then maybe manufacturing our own power
electronics and the software controls, but like rare elements, you know, motors, those are not
networked in any meaningful sense. Those are just kind of dumb, I guess, pieces of the puzzle.
Is there a reason not to just let China do those?
Yeah. So, I mean, I think that the argument then is what happens if there is some sort of
national security issue, and then you end up in this position where you don't have the production
capacity available. And then you end up in this position where you don't have the production
to respond to a crisis because like, okay, we could make a decision that, you know,
uses up all of our interceptor missiles for instance.
We would never do something so dumb, Sam, come on.
We would never do that. And now there's like rush to, you know, fix these gaping holes in our
defense supply chains to produce, you know, he'll produce like that basic restore of ability to
produce things at volume. And so I think that us having a baseline level of capability is important,
but there's another reason why I think this is important. And it actually comes down to the
innovation cycle.
So if you go to Southern China, like Shenzhen, stuff like that, you go visit places like BYD or
companies like that. One thing you'll notice is like, the engineers are pretty close to the
factory. So like the ability for them to iterate is downstream of the fact that, well, the decision
chain and the ability to like speak to the folks doing the production, that loop is really close.
Yeah. Let me insert here. Cause you're, you're teeing at my next question,
which is one of the other arguments you make in the paper is that
there's enormous benefits to having design and manufacturing close together. Like you're saying
in a close loop together, but like no American company has that. Like Apple computers are
famously designed in California and manufactured in China. Everything's manufactured. Your own
company impulse designed the stove and it's manufactured in China. So like, if that's an
error, then that's a really fundamental error that the U S is very, very far down the road.
I would argue that. So Apple actually is interesting here. So Apple addressed this
sort of concern of co-location with a clever solution that a large mega corp could solve,
which is they pay for business class flights for their, you know, early career engineers.
So just basically post up at the factory until stuff is done.
And I guess you can close the loop by throwing a bunch of money at international flights.
They are like the number one United customer.
If I remember correctly, I think there was some signage at some conference that was like,
it was like a hundred million dollars a year in business class flights. I'm just United.
They obviously spend on the other ones too, but basically closing that loop is super important.
I would push back on there being no American companies that have done this.
There's a couple and they all seem to be run by one dude.
This is the vertical integration that everybody talks about that Elon. So big on is basically
that is basically bringing manufacturing and design under a roof so that they can
iterate with one another. They can communicate back and forth faster.
Yeah.
And I would also argue that like, there's a lot of people who like speak the cult of like
SpaceX for integration.
But the real story is that the supply base just isn't really there for the volumes and demands that they need.
So it's like, there's no satellite supply base that could make stuff for 10,000 satellites a year.
Like that was never a thing that anyone in the defense industrial place was doing because of that.
It's like, okay, if you're doing things that have never done before and your problem is actually
like, they could have probably gone to Asian contract manufacturers and then like, hey, Foxconn,
I'll just build some satellites. The issue is they couldn't because of ITAR. So they had to do it in
the United States, international traffic and arms regulations. So basically it's like, you know,
satellites are, you know, ballistic missile adjacent, et cetera, et cetera. But basically
it's like they had to do in the US because of those regulatory barriers. What did Tesla do
for a lot of their power systems and computer systems like that? Well, they work with Asian
contract manufacturers for a good chunk of their system. They're not fully vertical,
and every print surf report in the, in the model three, for instance, like they're working with
folks that know what they're doing and stuff like that. And so that said, they now are in a volume
that they can kind of pick and choose who they work with and all this other stuff. But the supply
base, like Tesla is not as vertical as you might think, because they're working within that
ecosystem. And this kind of goes into like the big problem with the US on the innovation side.
It's like your ability to iterate in Shenzhen is just so much faster because it's like three phone
calls gets you, you know, 20 suppliers and like things can be driven between, and like these are
all the driving distance and like prototyping goes way faster. I've been talking to founders who are
like, I'm just gonna spend two months in Shenzhen and just get the first prototype out. Did you go
through this with impulse? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, so we had a fun part where we started the company
in 2021. You couldn't really go to China until 2023, but I basically spent a huge amount of time
getting stuff up and running. And now we've got, you know, they'll just kind of scale to arbitrary
volumes, you know, mostly downstream, just tap.
In terms of like pre-ordering parts and stuff like that. But we were a little bit early to kind of
the second wave of this, but like, if you're some founder trying to build some like AI doodad or
whatever, or a robot or whatever, it's like, this is clearly the path to getting you a prototype
faster. The difference too, is because you're prototyping in the production ecosystem, you're
kind of like what I would call like playing for keeps where effectively if the decisions you make,
if they're, you know, made and applied to,
like a change in production line, it's like, well, those will scale to your final product versus if
you go and prototype in the US with like me master car online hardware store or whatever, it's like,
well, now you're gonna have to remap that to a production process later. You're going to go
through, you know, what certain people would describe as like manufacturing hell or, or
whatever. So this is the big gap is like the US lacks kind of this mature ecosystem that lets you
kind of prototype anything. Meanwhile, Shenzhen is turning into this, like what I would call like
a matter compiler. Like it's like, okay, cool. You can like almost like vibe code out hardware,
just by asking for it. Like we're getting the star Trek replicator just happens to be a city, but then
And the frustrating bit, and this goes back to the electric stack, it's like there's only four things you need to be good at.
So why don't we just get good at those four things?
This gets to my question.
Let's cut to the chase then, because like standing up a manufacturing ecosystem of the scale and skill that China has built honestly strikes me and I think a lot of people as basically fantasticals.
We're pretty far down the road of being a service economy.
A lot of things would have to change for us to get that, for us to truly manufacture our own stuff on the scale that China does.
So like clearly the people who are saying this kind of thing, who are advocating what you're advocating, are advocating for something short of that.
So like what is the right percentage, right?
Like how much of our own stuff do we need to be producing or what kinds of our own stuff?
You can't just say we need to become like. Like China, because that's the work of like a half century, you know what I mean?
And we're in a hurry on a lot of fronts here.
So like what do we mean concretely when we're saying this?
I think the reality is it's like it's not that many discrete things we have to get good at.
And we're honestly still pretty good at most of these things.
Like the automotive industry provides us enough backstop scale, like our existing automotive industry provides enough existing backstop scale that like we have some of these capabilities in-house like still.
But a lot of it's just like, can you assemble. Like, can you assemble these desert boards with automated equipment and then can you put them in boxes?
If you want to be really simple, it's like that's not rocket science.
Like that's relatively true.
The big issue with all of this is that the customer profile of someone who goes through domestic manufacturing until very recently was I am a fancy medical device company and I'm building like an artificial heart and it can cost gazillion dollars.
Or I am Raytheon sub, sub, subcontractor.
And I don't care if this bolt costs a billion dollars.
Right.
Or it's an automotive, like it's the automotive player that is like, you know, building something from the last century.
And so I think that we ended up kind of pigeonholing ourselves where it's like no one was really doing the things that we're going to inflect.
And if they were, they were building exquisite systems for the military or for medical or whatever.
It's like they weren't sold at enough scale to ensure that the pricing was competitive and all that other stuff.
And so I think you're asking me like, what is the 80-20 of life?
Like U.S. manufacturing.
And not just that, but like, do we need also to be digging the minerals out of the ground?
Do we need to be doing initial processing of the minerals into materials that go into these pieces of the electric stack?
Like how much of the China has like so comprehensively grabbed a hold of all this?
What bits of it do we need or how much of it do we need?
Like what is the reverse engineering I've been doing is like, how is Elon the only guy who seems to be able to do this?
And if you kind of look at like, what's crazy about this?
Like there's all these technologies that were invented in California, for instance.
And if I was like, hey, I just want to make a factory and make this, it wouldn't be more expensive.
It would actually just be illegal for me to do it.
And so the examples are like, if you wanted to make printed circuit boards in California,
I believe you have to deal with California Air Resource Board and your local water agencies and stuff like that.
Because like, you know, you're plating like gold on, you're doing electroplating and doing all that other stuff.
And like basically doing chemistry.
Chemistry of metals has become largely illegal.
And so kind of the trade we made in the 90s was like, as we were kind of de-industrializing from the fall of the Soviet Union.
And then in the post 2008 recession, when, you know, we didn't really resurrect a lot of our U.S. manufactured base, except for the auto industry.
Was like, okay, yeah, you just do this overseas.
And like, we didn't realize that we had made it impossible to reactivate these facilities because of, you know, environmental law and all this other stuff.
Because we kind of went into a like, it didn't matter because you do it overseas.
Right.
Now, I think this is kind of ironic because it's like, okay, we all like solar panels.
We like batteries.
We like all this other stuff.
But like, it's kind of hypocritical if we can't, you know, manufacture these things in places like California that ostensibly are like the biggest fans of these technologies.
And so I do think there's going to need to be a little bit of a reckoning on the environmental side for like, just allowing, basically legalizing greedy jobs is probably the way that I would phrase it.
It's like, there's an opportunity for tons of blue collar, quote unquote, greed jobs that, frankly,
are not currently allowed in places like California, close to where the engineers that develop the technology start.
And so that's a big piece of it as well.
But like, going back to what would I say to prioritize is like, I think if you look at what's missing in our industrial stack, it's like, frankly, it's like, we just need capability to build the replacement level stuff, which is kind of ironic because the US likes to do the thing of like, this is the doomer version of it.
It's like, we're kind of like Germany entering World War II.
Where we had all the wonderwaffen, but we didn't have the volume production of all the stuff that actually matter.
Versus America entering World War II, where we could like turn washing machine factories into munitions factories.
So not to kind of bemoan our like late empire situation.
But basically, the point, though, is like, being able to just have baseline production of the basic stuff, like, okay, can you go get drum motors in the US?
Now, is the volume of drum motors from. The entire Ukraine conflict enough to stand up a notable industrial base there?
Honestly, maybe not, which is actually kind of crazy.
So then it's like, okay, well, you probably need to have a domestic robot actuator business with, you know, drum motors for defense purposes being some sort of side effect, basically.
And so you kind of end up navigating to like, I think, ultimately, you need to anchor with some sort of consumer demand, not just like the national security demand.
But consumer demand is the industrial policy we need to be, you know, architecting.
But then to make that work and make it cost effective, we need to do all the things like reform, you know, environmental law, Kermanang, make it offer cheap financing for factories, get states to compete off each other and be like, hey, I'll give you, you know, your tax abatements, incentives for workforce development, etc.
Like, there's a lot of states that are actually starting to do really clever things with this.
But we need to start getting into that game, too, because that's ultimately how China works.
Like, China's ultimate thing is that they have like competition between all the provinces.
The provinces, you know, step up and get. They have people, extremely cheap financing, like really good access to land and power, you know, facilities, etc.
And they understand kind of this industrial policy finance ecosystem that, like, I think America is starting to get.
But it's like, that's a key piece of it.
We used to have this thing.
They used to be called local banks.
Well, China also has central planning that decides on the overall industrial direction of the country.
Then they have furious competition at the local level or. Within sectors, you know, and between provinces.
But they also get the benefit of just deciding we're moving in this direction.
Let's all row, you know, we're all rowing in this direction.
And then everybody's competing.
You get the benefits of competition down there at the sector level.
But you don't have this sort of either total lack of planning or flailing back and forth just about the macro direction of the whole country.
Yeah, and I would argue that there is the most interesting thing about the current moment we're in.
Is I was joking with this on a panel at a conference like a year or two ago.
But basically, it's like, you know, the tanks are going to go woke even because basically, you know, the electric stack is going to absorb even the most like masculine of combustion technology is that at a certain point, that stuff sort of stuff's going to happen.
Very funny about this is like, I don't think anyone in current administration, you know, disagrees with that statement.
Actually, I just think that they might message it differently.
So there might be more alignment here than you would expect.
You know, at the street level, if that makes any sense.
I think that there's definitely a kind of like, OK, what are we going to do about the U.S. auto industry and the EV transition and all sort of stuff?
And I think there's going to be big macro strategic disagreements.
Are we going to have a domestic battery industry that is, you know, underwritten by some sort of consumer demand?
Yes.
I mean, what they're doing now on EVs is the opposite of what you would do if you took the imperative to develop your own electric stack, etc.
Seriously, do you not agree?
Like, that is the opposite of what you would do.
That is the opposite of what you would want to do.
They're protecting combustion long after its shelf life.
And then I would argue that, and this goes back to what you were saying, is like, should we allow BYD and like Geely and Xiaomi to sell their cars in the United States?
I'm like, I think the answer is yes.
But I think if the answer is yes, and it's kind of in this like, it would just show how behind we are.
You know, it's kind of like, it would be like a. It would be embarrassing for many years.
It would be a Sputnik moment.
And so I do think that, like, we need to step it up and be competitive.
And that might mean that, okay, the big three need to, you know, need a reboot.
There's a lot of interlocking issues for why we're in this spot.
I would argue that, like, Jim Farley at Ford, like, they understand it deeply.
It's just that there's a lot of structural issues that make this tricky.
I think he does drive a Xiaomi, as you said, by the way.
He was very impressed, very verbally, vocally impressed when he went and visited.
We're almost out of time.
I want to get back to the stove for a minute.
A little bit, a couple of stove questions.
So this is your little piece of the electrotech revolution is cooktops.
Yes.
A couple of questions about cooktops, which is why, you know, the battery to increase
performance, that's a straightforward argument.
Like, you're going to get really high levels of power at your burners.
And so you can do certain cooking things you can't do with a normal cooktop.
But that's limited and high-end, definitionally limited and high-end thing.
Part of what you're trying to do is get batteries in and then control the batteries.
So a couple of questions about this.
One is, why should you control the battery?
rather than the utility controlling the batteries to
why a bunch of little batteries in appliances rather than one large home battery in a very good
control software like why the benefits of the batteries beyond performance talk a little bit
about those yeah so i think the performance angle was basically like want to convince people like
hey you should buy this new product from a startup and like the general attitude was like okay we
have to just make sure this is the singular best oven market like it was kind of that kind of the
argument because also like you're not going to win on price you don't have pricing power and
volume and all sort of stuff when you're starting so you're like okay you gotta do it that way
the second thing was like okay so we put a inverter in the product we haven't turned it on yet but
we've got the capability to push power out of the battery into the house and obviously there's a
bunch of changes with balcony solar laws and all that stuff to make permitting that easier but to
be clear you can't plug into anything into the stove and the stove is not involved in any kind
of
demand response or anything like that we haven't turned these features on repiloting stuff like
this but basically that there's a directional inverter in the product it's code compliant to
like ul 1741 so it's just like a solar inverter or any other stuff one caveat here is like with
a central home battery you have this problem where it's like you gotta either back up the whole house
or you're gonna back up part of the house and then you have to like that's the killer consumer value
prop we don't necessarily have that the value prop for us is the stove's really good and it also backs
itself up so like there's no need to do the like partial home backup thing that like if you install
a single power wall that's what you would probably do versus like it's only two of them and you can
back your whole house up that's actually what like base power for instance has been solved was like
just make the battery so big that yeah you can back the entire house up and then you don't have
to deal with this like weird half-assed installation situation that is like adds like 50 more complexity
on the electrician side or if not more way more and so we were like oh well the battery's gonna
be smaller than that and so we were like well the battery's gonna be smaller than that and so we
by nature it's gonna fit inside a device and then it's like okay so you just need to do a grid time
or you don't need to do grid forming and then you can still do all the virtual power plant stuff
but you take backing up the house off the table which makes the installation wait and we're sure
for it so then going to like the second piece of it which is why many small batteries versus one
big battery well it's like i think there's a role for batteries to kind of every layer of
the network if you think of the grid as a network going back to what i was saying earlier
there's packet buffers at every
layer like down to the router in your house and so you end up doing this in a couple different
layers and the reason this would make sense it's like okay let's imagine i have a central home
battery like got a power wall it's only got so much peak power out of the inverter i don't know
it's like somewhere in the 7 to 10 kilowatts and i forget the exact number but like your house could
draw more than that and now if you could basically say okay cool my major appliances all draw way
less well now that central home inverter doesn't have to handle induction cooking doesn't have to
handle all of that so it kind of makes the installation distribution problem significantly
less if you kind of scatter batteries everywhere then the next piece is you got to then kind of
re-aggregate them into something that is like legible for utility ultimately the utility is
the one who actually gets the value out of the batteries that are distributed on the grid because
it's like they're the one who's saving money by not having to upgrade transmission because they
can then harvest the harvest the battery storage and so ultimately that's the person who gets the
most value here and that's the person who gets the most value here and that's the person who gets the
most value here and then it's all these other things are just structures to kind of share that
value of the people who deploy batteries basically what's the roadmap right now it's a seven thousand
dollar countertop cooker which is obviously going to be of you know limited sale that's a limited
market is the idea to bring down the cost of the impulse cooktop until it becomes a mass market
product or is the idea to take the basic core technology and turn it into a mass market product
technology and power electronics that are making it work and embed those in other countertops that
are cheaper like what is the product roadmap for the impulse cooktop specifically yeah so we've got
several partners in the appliance industry that are coming out with products at various price
points and these are both cooktops and ranges so like basically with the oven integrated and
other products like that but basically we take the underlying electronics largely the same stack we
can tune the performance and software depending on what the customer's price point and all sort of
stuff is there's other things we can do in hardware to like defeature you know up feature etc but this
allows us to go from like hey we're have like a 30 and 36 inch cooktop available to a bunch of
different SKUs in a bunch of different sizes and shapes we've announced some of them already we're
gonna announce more in the coming these are through other bigger manufacturers other bigger
appliance bigger manufacturers now we're still making all the electronics ourselves so it's like
it's kind of like the goal is to set a new standard where it's like okay well one of the key features
with our product is like you can set and hold an exact temperature and you can set a hold an exact
temperature inside the pan through some technology we've developed yes i think you tried to explain to
me exactly how that works once at a demo and i'm still i still confess to be totally baffled by how
that works yeah effectively if you control the temperature sensor and you control the induction
you can kind of measure the temperature through the pan versus just kind of like the temperature sensor
versus just kind of like seeing some sort of second order like the bottom of the pan is hot or whatever
signal wild but that sort of stuff super exciting for people the fact that we've got like a screen
can put a bunch of content stuff on there has been super exciting for some of these partners as well
and so we're kind of being like hey this is the new standard for where
induction and kind of power systems for appliances are going period
so you want to be like the intel inside of the induction stove world yeah but it's also like intel
plus microsoft is probably the way to think about it like in the 90s because like you're doing the
software and cloud platform and all their sense of that's how we're taking this like more mass market
than just like hey one brand one skew or two skews one industrial design et cetera these people have
opinions on all this stuff too like people want some like lot core new thing or you know whatever
it's like people have all sorts of preferences what they want in their kitchen and so you end up
in this pickle where it's like the appliance industry is actually closer to like the car
industry in a sense where there's like dealerships and like it has kind of a dealer model and like
multi-step distribution and all sorts of stuff so this allows us to kind of do the compelling
thing right at the node where they're the most interested people are to buy it which is like
the appliance space the appliance manufacturer specifically that's been a lot of my focus on
that and then it's also just like what other categories of devices to kind of go into and
innovate their nest that's my next question is you know we're talking about these medium-sized
electricity electric devices where you know like a lot of the smaller ones have been perfected a lot
of the bigger ones require a lot more scale than you have to get into but like an individual company
can get a toehold in this medium-sized electric appliance world what else is in that world and
what's next on your list i'm holding a little a bit of this a little bit close but basically it's
like there's a lot of stuff in the home that's really interesting there's stuff in cooking that's
interesting that like i would love to do a microwave for instance but that's kind of like a
that's probably a little bit later the other stuff is like there's industrial equipment is interesting
because it's like okay if you can buffer power to let's say like a cnc machine or something like
that like now you can install more cnc machines in the building what are cnc machines like computer
numeric control like you know cutting metal the machines that cut metal like the thing that
machines like your macbook's body or something like that but basically it's like you know people
are trying to read industrial as america there's actually a pretty interesting opportunity in
terms of just like power buffering industrial equipment so that way you know again it's
seems like everything if you kind of look closely at power traces from pretty much any machine
they're like not on all the time and then when they're on they're not at full power all the time
and you can just look at that across huge numbers of sectors and there's really interesting stuff to
do there and so one of the things we've been doing is just like figuring out kind of like
what the minimum viable like core module is for that and then okay that becomes the thing that
we can kind of like repeatedly sell across a bunch of these spaces and then it's got all
the same software and control systems and do you watch the temperature sensor for some of
them other use case you can use you know it's like it all ends up being this kind of modular platform
that's been kind of the way we think about it and the modules basically are like battery for buffer
and power electronics for fine grain control you're just applying that to machine after machine
after machine and then the thought here is like how do you connect to the gray bullet we got this
group tie inverter you now have that you can do that in that sort of modular way as well
all right we should probably leave it there actually i have one additional
question which i may or may not cut if you have like a minute or two left
which is semi unrelated to the other questions you're kind of in the silicon valley founder
world and community which you know the rest of us whether we like it or not have to be
aware of what can escape yeah what they think what they're doing what their sort of macro thoughts
are matter to the rest of us whether we like it or not and i'm just sort of curious about i'll
tell you my external impression is that these people through some mix of like ai sci-fi scenarios
and effective altruism arguments about the distant future and etc etc have basically talked themselves
out of caring about climate change much is that accurate no you don't think so i think there's
a couple things going on that are like interesting here so like i think what people have realized is
that there is a kind of like ai will solve all problems sort of ea adjacent you know thing that
i think is totally happening but i have to be a little bit quiet about this but basically it's
like i think that there is
relative conviction that geoengineering will work among a certain sector of folks and it's probably
some sort of like stratosphere aerosol stratosphere particulate injection situation and i'm reasonably
convinced that we're going to have mitigations that look in that shape or we're going to have
to do those mitigation because again we're going to get so far into trouble in the 2040s 2050s that
like it's going to be inevitable that we're gonna have to do that sort of stuff i think the bigger
aspect of this is the bigger story is that the language has changed but i'm not sure if the
mission has changed just makes any sense and when i say that it's like well if we're reindustrializing
america we're building you know stuff with all these new technologies what are those new
technologies again oh it's the same tech stack that we anointed as the saviors for climate change
basically it's the same stuff it's like okay well how are we going to solve climate change originally
it's like batteries power electrons embedded compute electromagnetics rebuild every machine
on that stack
now everything is suddenly electric oh and then we need to make sure that we have clean
firm power okay well building lots of batteries every data center is getting gigawatt hours of
batteries attached to it or whatever and then what's the cheapest source of electricity well
it's probably solar out in the desert in south texas and so it seems like we're doing all the
things that we were supposed to be doing we're just talking about it differently i'm not sure
if that's reassuring it looks to me like a lot of them are perfectly happy to power a
i on gas and in fact are embracing that affirmatively and less and less talking about
that as a bridge as far as i can tell like so that would it seem to indicate to me that they care a
lot more about ai than they do about climate change i do think that the thing is real is that
like i think people are still underestimating how transformative ai is going to be someone said like
two percent of americans have a paid chat gpt subscription or something like that like
this is maybe six months ago but the fact that that subscription rate is so low which means that
everyone's just talking to some like low-end model and not talking to like the stuff that's
actually at the frontier means that i think most people's perception of the stuff is fundamentally
inaccurate in terms of how transformative that's made and so one thing to really put a point to put
a fine point on is like i'm definitely in like this like you know low tens of thousands of people
and i'm not even in one of these frontier labs i'm not seeing what's quietly happening at
open the iron tropic or whatever and it's like what's actually happening there to my understanding
is like people are like throwing thousands of agents at complex problems and walking away with
solutions to like math careers and stuff like that it started to get pretty spooky and like
outside of the domain of like what humans can comprehend of the capabilities so we're at the
point then you have that group then you have people like me who are like deep in the sauce
with the stuff and then you've got like typical software engineers that are getting dramatically
with this technology and then you've got kind of people on the outside of this being like what is
going on this is wacky i think we're in the biggest inflection point in technology industry
ever basically maybe since like the dawn of the adventure of the transistor
and the integrated circuit might have been like about as big this could be the big one basically
and i strongly suspect that i even think that i'm not taking this as seriously as i should
based based on what i'm seeing in all this other stuff but what is the implication of that for
climate change spell it out what are we supposed to take from that about this gathering problem of
climate change so complex engineering work is going to be increasingly more tractable by machine
intelligence over the next two to three years the transformation economy with ai is going to
basically buy you know more batteries and solar than i think ever were bought before now yes
they're going to buy gas turbines but gas turbines are fundamentally bottlenecked by
hard materials problems red solar is not followed right and we're not going to go give china
gas turbine technology you know to scale it like that's not going to happen that's not going to
happen and so basically i think what's going to effectively happen is like the economy will
increasingly just electrify on cars will go electric because of autonomy because that's again
like you'll want the more controllable electric created vehicle like if you look at tesla cyber
cap the brakes are electric it's like it has no hydraulic system anymore i mean you could argue
that starship is electric an electric vehicle just happens to have you know primary propulsion
is methane but like other than that
it's like all the actuators and all this other stuff it's an electric vehicle and so i think
what's going to happen is we're going to see a slow or very rapid transformation of like everything
becoming kind of like a robot and thus to be a robot it's going to have to be electric then the
last question is going to basically be like okay well what do we do about the fact that you know
earth is several degrees celsius warmer than it should be and i think the answer there is probably
geoengineering this is my guys and are there people working on this right now the answer is yes but i
don't think it's going to be the spicy topic in the next you know 10 years or so well everything
you said could just spin off into a pot of its own but i probably shouldn't i probably shouldn't
crack that can open at the very end of our pod the point is we're going to have to deal with
climate change but the tools we're going to have to deal with it are going to basically be the
entire economy is going to be electric within the next 10 years period driven entirely by forces
entirely by demand pull basically on robotics and data centers and all sort of stuff and then it's
like okay how do we clean up the mess we made of the past century and it's like it's genuinely a
good question do i think people are not caring it's like no i just think that what's happening
it's almost like climate change was the concern and now there is a bigger concern if the next
thing is that's all right well i'm going to resist the temptation to pull on all those strings and
end it here that's another pod for their day thank you for talking this through with me it's always
as you know i love talking about electricity so thanks for indulging me all right cool all right
see ya
thanks everybody you've been listening to volts founded and hosted by me david roberts produced
by nate peavy and supported entirely through the generosity of listeners like you if you have 10
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Thank you.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The electric stack—comprising batteries, electric motors, power electronics, and embedded computing—is becoming exponentially cheaper and smarter, enabling a surge in electric devices across homes, transportation, and industry.
China currently dominates global manufacturing of the electric stack, from lithium-ion batteries to rare-earth magnets, giving it a strategic advantage in hardware development.
The U.S. faces a critical gap in domestic manufacturing and supply chain resilience, especially in core technologies like power electronics and motors, despite strong innovation in AI and software.
Devices like induction cooktops exemplify the benefits of the electric stack
Close integration between design and manufacturing—like in Shenzhen—allows for rapid iteration and prototyping, a capability the U.S. currently lacks due to fragmented supply chains and regulatory barriers.
The rise of electric tech is not just a consumer trend but a fundamental shift in energy use, with AI and robotics set to accelerate demand for electric components and drive new industrial innovation.
U.S. policy must prioritize domestic capability in the electric stack through industrial incentives, environmental law reform, and state-level competition to avoid long-term dependency on foreign supply chains.
The U.S. risks falling behind in both innovation and resilience if it fails to align consumer demand, domestic manufacturing, and strategic industrial policy with the evolving electric ecosystem.
Summary:
The electric stack—encompassing batteries, motors, power electronics, and embedded computing—is undergoing a rapid transformation, becoming exponentially cheaper and more capable. This has enabled a global shift toward electrification in homes, vehicles, and industry. S.
faces significant vulnerabilities in supply chain resilience and domestic production capacity. Sam D’Amico’s work with Impulse Labs highlights how devices like induction cooktops leverage battery storage to meet high-power demands efficiently, offering both performance and energy resilience. This trend reveals a broader opportunity: the ability to integrate energy storage and smart controls at the device level, reducing strain on household electrical systems.
S. lacks the mature, agile manufacturing ecosystem found in China, where close design-manufacturing loops and rapid prototyping enable innovation. Key barriers include environmental regulations that hinder industrial activity and a lack of coordinated industrial policy.
S. must prioritize domestic production of core electric stack components, reform regulatory frameworks to allow greater industrial activity, and use consumer demand—especially in new technologies—as a driver for industrial revival. S.
risks falling behind in a global race where hardware innovation, not just AI, will define the future of energy and technology.
FAQs
The electric stack consists of four key technologies: batteries, electric motors, power electronics, and embedded computing. Together, they enable a wide range of energy-consuming devices to become cheaper, smarter, and more efficient, driving the global shift toward electrification across transportation, appliances, and industry.
Cooktops have a large peak-to-average power disparity—most of the time they draw little power, but during cooking they surge to high levels. This makes them ideal for battery storage, allowing devices to buffer power peaks and improve performance without overloading household electrical systems.
The electric stack has become approximately 99% cheaper since 1990 due to continuous cost reductions in batteries, power electronics, and motors. This cost decline has enabled widespread adoption of electric devices in cars, appliances, and industrial equipment.
China dominates manufacturing of key electric stack components like lithium-ion batteries and rare-earth magnets, and has integrated design and production closely. This vertical integration allows faster iteration and scalability, giving China a strategic advantage over countries that rely on imports.
Batteries in appliances allow for higher peak power output, better energy efficiency, and the ability to store energy during off-peak hours. This enables devices to operate independently of the grid and support renewable energy integration at the household level.
Relying on foreign supply chains creates risks during crises and limits innovation. Domestic production ensures national security, enables faster design-to-production cycles, and supports the development of a resilient, competitive domestic industrial base.
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