Jane Flagle offers a critical yet constructive analysis of how the U.S. can build a low-carbon grid, arguing that entrenched market corrections and environmental advocacy alone are insufficient. She contends that climate action requires active industrial policy—government-led investment in clean technologies that create economic and political momentum. Drawing on her experience in climate policy, philanthropy, and governance, she highlights the failure of green groups to cultivate cross-partisan political alliances, especially with Republicans, and to prioritize supply-side innovation over demand-side subsidies. While the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) delivered substantial and durable policy momentum, it fell short in supporting transformative technologies like clean steel and cement, and in connecting U.S. investments to global decarbonization. Flagle criticizes the scarcity mindset in green advocacy, warning that over-focusing on short-term cost savings risks delaying essential grid expansion and long-term energy transformation. She champions a more expansive, public-sector-driven approach—funded through mechanisms like a federal American Grid Infrastructure Fund—to capture the economic value of data centers and reinvest in national grid resilience. Ultimately, she calls for greater pluralism, institutional capacity, and epistemic humility, urging all stakeholders to move beyond ideological tribalism and embrace pragmatic, large-scale solutions that balance affordability with long-term systemic change.
Hello. Greetings and salutations, everyone. This is Volts for September 11, 2026. Building
a big, abundant, clean grid. I'm your host, David Roberts. Why do green groups seem to
have no plan for data centers or for accelerating the build-out of a low-carbon grid? Why aren't
governors using hyperscaler money to grow and strengthen state grids? Why are Democratic
members of Congress faffing about on permitting and transmission reform? These questions and
many others like it haunt Jane Flagle, one of the most interesting, prolific, and peripatetic
figures in the clean energy world today.
Jane has deep breath, everyone, worked at the Bipartisan Policy Center, been a program
officer at the Spitzer Charitable Trust and the Hewlett Foundation, led work on industrial
emissions in Biden's White House Climate Policy Office, led market development for Frontier's
Carbon Removal Initiative, and worked as the founding executive director of Blue Horizons,
a charitable foundation focused on climate. She is now a senior fellow at the Blue Horizons
Research Institute and the State's Forum, a fellow at both the Energy for Growth Hub
and the University of Chicago's Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth, and the
principal at Flagle Energy Advisors. That is, if you were following along at home, an
inside perspective on philanthropy, private sector climate finance, government, and non-profit
policy development.
On the bright side, she has gotten a uniquely wide-angle view of the world. She has been
involved in the field of renewable energy, but she has also been a part of the global
economy. On the darker side, she has also been forced to become intimately familiar
with the various ways that lots of people in all of those worlds are, and these are
my words, not Jane's, dumb and wrong about stuff. It is a lot to carry.
Nonetheless, Jane spends her time thinking about how the U.S. can rapidly build out a
low-carbon grid, which is more or less the founding vision of this podcast. I always
find her work fascinating. She has been involved in a number of things. She has been involved
just a market failure that you are going to correct
by turning a few knobs on your market approach, on your economic approach. It's going to take
industrial policy. Just say a little bit about what motivates that, what you mean by that.
Yeah. Unlike the way you framed the degrowth question, David, there are like
two things going on here. One is that what you will find in most of the kind of academic or
theoretical literature around the rationale for just like pricing the externality of climate
change assumes that you can actually do that effectively in the real world, which of course
confronts all sorts of real challenges that I know you've talked to Danny Cullenward and
David Victor, who've done a great job sort of describing all of the ways in which that
fails when it hits reality. So there is just kind of like a practical argument about this.
But I also just think like one of the original sins in my view about the way that we came to
understand climate change as a problem was that, you know, we had all this great success with the
Montreal Protocol and HFCs where, which was a certain kind of problem, you know, a relatively
well-bounded one in a couple of discrete geographies with a handful of producers where we
had cheap substitutes or at least rapidly becoming cheap substitutes. And so like the mechanism for
managing that was like kind of a conventional pollution control program, right? Including at
the international scale. And it worked and it's awesome. And it's like, I actually worked on HFCs
in the White House for Biden. There was a lot of, you know, there was a lot of, you know,
there was a bipartisan ratification of a treaty on HFCs during that period, which everyone seems
to forget. So that worked. That is not, though, the same shape of problem as climate change.
Carbon, unlike these other pollutants, is embedded deeply kind of everywhere in the economy. And so
the expectation that price signals alone are going to move it is, I think, just like basically
incorrect. And you talk about trying to generate a green spiral. What does that mean?
You know, I think this is really misunderstood. Useful question. I was really compelled,
when I was in grad school, by the work of Nina Kelsey. And she's a political scientist. And her
sort of framing of green spiral is a positive feedback loop where investment, often government
investment, but not only, makes clean technologies cheap enough to deploy at scale. That deployment
then creates industries and jobs. And those industries become a powerful political
constituency with real power to demand more climate action. So you need a couple of things
right now, right? You need like falling costs, which, you know, we have 90% cost declines for
solar and batteries and incredible, same for batteries, 70% for wind, like crazy, crazy. So
that was true. I think the other two pieces kind of were closer to failures, in my view. I still
think it worked in the IRA, which we can talk more about. But like, one part of the hypothesis is that
you deliver tangible near-term benefits in communities. That one we should really unpack,
because I think my view is that too many in the climate,
advocacy community thought it was mostly that and not the industry power
that was going to move things. And I think that was wrong. And for me, I've always been a little
bit more focused on like, even if your hypothesis, which is not mine, but some people's hypothesis is
that like the single barrier to climate progress is the evil of the fossil fuel industry. And they
have done very bad things. So I'm not minimizing it. I wish it were that easy, frankly. But if you
believed that, you are not going to roll them with like a coalition of the marginalized.
It's the same way that the New Deal worked. You got to have some part of capital on your side.
Tell me if you think this is right. Like, we have had these incredible cost declines
and incredible growth in these industries. But I at least have been frustrated, as you probably know,
if you ever listened to the pod, that it doesn't seem like the industry is using even the muscle
it has. I mean, it's still obviously not anywhere as big as the fossil fuel industry, but it doesn't
that side of the equation has worked. And I don't totally understand why. Why the industry is not
acting on its own behalf more concertedly. It's totally fair. And I totally agree. To the extent
there was a failure mode on IRA defense, it was like largely this. And interesting. I think there
are a couple of possible explanations. One, to your point, like it is just a more nascent industry and
they're like trying to grow up very fast. And so like that is somewhat understandable. I think
there's also just these issues of like.
How do you exercise political power effectively in our trade associations? The best way to do that,
which you've also opined on. And I think like another piece of this, and this is not to like
blame the green groups, but I think for a long time, while these industries were quite nascent
and it was very expensive, they relied on environmental nonprofits to be their advocacy
muscle. Do you know what I mean? Yeah.
So we kind of had these like training. We had this like support structure. But over time,
that resulted in, I think, the industry is not building enough cross-partisan audience,
which is like whether you want that to be true or not. Like we obviously live in a country where
Republicans are going to control parts of government and any mature industry is like
engaging on both sides of the aisle. And I think that, you know, Republicans won the election and
many of these industries did not have strong relationships with those offices. Yeah. So what
you're.
Describing basically is, I mean, sort of the contrast to the market correction,
tweak the externality approach. The more active approach is generally known as industrial policy.
And I will just say I'm older than you. I've somehow come to a place in my life where I'm
older than everybody. Like for the first 15 years, probably I followed U.S. politics. Industrial
policy was just verboten. It wasn't just sort of like neglected. It was the bad guy. Democrats strove
to distance themselves from it. We're not about command and control anymore. Now we're all
neoliberals. We're all about the market. We all respect markets. That's what the whole
Waxman-Markey sort of carbon pricing push was about. And just it seemed like things
flipped on that question on a dime. So I'm not even sure to this day. I totally understand it.
All of a sudden, from one day to the next, everyone across the political
spectrum was like, yeah, we do industrial policy now. Like, this is the thing. It's wild.
Yeah. I have a couple of hypotheses here. One is like, it's interesting. I've talked to some
people who are like, well, the U.S. was doing industrial policy during the peak of neoliberalism.
It was just for financial markets. In reality, it was always doing it right. I mean, it never
really went away. Yeah, exactly. But the willing embrace of it on like explicit terms, I think,
is like, yeah, a relatively new phenomenon. And I think for me, like I thought about this a lot. I
of things that came together at once. You know, I worked at the Hewlett Foundation at the same time
as Jennifer Harris, who was leading this kind of beyond neoliberalism program. And I was like this
nerdy climate person. But I immediately was like, aha, this is the answer to our problems. Because
for those folks, for the kind of economic policy, you know, economic thinking, geopolitical scholars
and activists, there were a set of rationales for embracing industrial policy that had more to do
with like competition with trade. And I think that's a really good point. And I think that's a
Yeah, yeah. Among other things. That's obviously, I think, if you're listing causal factors, China,
not just using industrial policy, but very effectively and successfully using it,
I think, shook things up. And then like so much of this is just like luck. Then this is horrible.
I do not feel lucky that COVID happened, let me just say. But then COVID happened. And so like
as the window for federal action on climate specifically was opening, you had
both stark competition with China, philanthropy's role, frankly, in like seeding a bunch of ideas
on that front in a bipartisan way, including a lot of the work that Jen did, frankly, and then
the Sunrise Movement kind of shaking things up on climate and leading with a more investment
led strategy. And then like the piece that often doesn't get attention, and I'll just give these
guys a shadow because I think they don't often get credit is like, there had been a set of
things that were focused on turning up the salience of climate politically for better or worse, but
much more focused on just moving the needle on things like innovation investment, including in
the industrial sector. You know, it's like Clean Air Task Force and the energy team at Third Way
and like the Great Plains Institute and ITIF and like these smaller NGOs. And like, that's not
going to solve the climate problem. But there were groups who had been working on just defending and
reforming DOE's energy programs, while most of the climate community was much more focused on
EPA as the locus of climate action. Those guys also deserve some credit, I think, for at least
having some stuff to bring to bear on, like, what would big demonstration projects look like,
blah, blah, blah. Well, I say this with some chagrin, but it does kind of look like,
in retrospect, the green spiral theory of the case, which is let's do things, change facts on
the ground, and then that will change politics and will turn this ratchet, does seem in practice to
have produced a lot of good things. And I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing. And
more fruits than the let's create a civil rights style movement. Yeah. Browbeat politicians into
caring a lot about climate. Maybe you could say it was a pincer movement and there was both and
it's hard to disentangle them in retrospect. But I do think you're right that the industrial policy
side of things was a little neglected. It's also definitely true that I mean, I was in the Biden
White House. The Democrats in control really care about climate change. They like they really cared
about climate change. And I think there's two things. One, like I think there was a belief,
which I think proved to be false.
unfortunately, that there were a bunch of climate voters, you know, who were going to
change electoral outcomes. I think that that post most recent election has probably been
deflated. But the belief that they were there definitely impacted the fact that we prioritized
climate as much as we did in that White House, I think. And then also, like, this is kind of crude,
but there's a lot of political money in the climate space that flows to Democrats. Democrats
feel accountable to those constituencies. And like, it's not particularly Democratic,
but like, it is what it is. And in truth, like, I don't know, we did spend the vast majority of
our funding opportunities on climate for a reason. So yeah, maybe we did need both. I don't know.
Yeah, we'll return to some of that a little bit later. But on the industrial policy tips,
so let's talk about IRA. This is one of the big hot topics. Was IRA the right approach
that the Inflation Reduction Act? Sorry for everybody who does not
get that by now. IRA, was that the right approach? You know, is it explicitly an
industrial policy approach, I think? And originally, I think, was a much broader,
more comprehensive industrial policy approach. Of course, it got whittled down and whittled down
and whittled down. But still, you, I think, have defended the basic approach. Everybody wants to
discuss, like, what was wrong with IRA? Should we deem it a failure because it didn't stick as much
as we thought it would, right? The theory of the case, like you shovel these benefits to red districts,
opposition to the whole thing, that maybe didn't turn out to play out the way we might have liked.
So what's your sort of retrospective case on IRA? The IRA was a historic law with much more
durability than it should have had, having been passed by Democrats only in a reconciliation.
It was, as a durable climate intervention, I think it did very well. And it was the right thing to do at the time.
I would love someone to articulate an alternative to the IRA that would have met the mark on climate
ambition, and much of which would still exist today. Like, it certainly wouldn't have been a
regulatory agenda. An alternative that, you know, Manchin would have signed off on is the relevant.
Well, yeah, yeah, well, that for sure. But it wouldn't have been a regulatory agenda.
Carbon pricing, let's just not even discuss really at the moment. Like, these things were not options
then. Like, you just have to be kind of realistic. And I do think my view, and Jesse and I went on
a long time ago now, just to sort of say, like, look, here's what the one big beautiful bill act
did and what it did not do. And that's not to be poly, whatever. I can't even get into, like,
the modeling wars about whether the glass is, like, half full or half empty or a quarter,
like, whatever. But that was my next question. I want you to get into those words. There's a
fight, or not a fight, but there's a question about, Lily Burmel had this paper where she's,
like, glass half full, more of it survived than we thought. And I don't know if you saw, but the
with a piece and heat map is, like, no, no, the glass is way less than half full. It destroyed a
lot more than you thought. I'm sort of curious, like, where you see industrial policy now post
OBBBA, stupid big beautiful bill act, like, post Trump's ravaging. What's your assessment of how
healthy the green industrial policy is today? Look, I mean, the vast majority of that law
is, like, I think all of the modeling, like, okay, part of the problems with these models is that,
A, they're fake, and B, they're, like, they are all asking different questions, right? And, like,
I know Lily well. I think she was very clear about the question she was asking, and I believe she
was correct on the answer to the question. I think part of the reason it was so triggering
for everyone, because one of her kind of normative takeaways was, we probably shouldn't throw down
to reinstate the solar and wind tax credits. And, like, that's why everyone was like,
I don't know why everyone got obsessed with the fullness of the class. Leaving that aside,
I think that that is true. Other things have happened in the world. Demand growth has gone
through the roof as a consequence of the data center build out, among some other things.
We interest rates are extremely high. We are in multiple wars. Things are different. And
so, like, if you try to account for everything, there are certainly all sorts of headwinds
that, you know, there were not in four years ago. But I don't think any of that detracts
from the fact that the IRA was a quite durable and important intervention that put the U.S.
even today on a much better trajectory than it would have otherwise been on. I believe that is
true. I also think one thing that models are terrible at capturing, so as a consequence,
we just, like, are never allowed to talk about, is that there were a lot of investments in both
the infrastructure law and the IRA in more innovative clean energy and industrial technologies
that are going to be absolutely crucial for global development. And so, I think that's a
really important thing to think about. Yeah. Well, okay. One thing is just, like, there's the law and there's the implementation of the law
and, like, much has been made about how slow we were to implement the law. So, like, across the
board, I would try to do better on that. And I'm sure we'll talk about this later, too, but I think
there are implications for our current permitting regime that are related to that. I think that in
the design of the IRA, many of us were overly focused on satisfying every member of the Democratic
Party, rather than thinking about, like, the actual theory behind the green spiral. So,
there was, you know, a lot of pressure to do, and this is, like, gets a little bit into, like,
the everything bagelism, although I like the everything bagel, and I, like, think that if
we're spending public money, we should try to make sure it's going to good things, and that's
legitimate. But, you know, I do think there was a lot of funnel, a lot of money into disadvantaged
communities and make sure the EJ groups are never mad at us and make sure labor is never mad at us
and make sure the enviros are, and, like, you know, there's a lot of pressure to do that.
It was just a lot of co-optimization and, like, kind of unwillingness to just say no
and, like, make some tough trade-offs. That was kind of a problem. And then the other thing I'll
say is, like, I was in charge of industry, and I think, in part, because the IRA, it's sort of
remarkably, the IRA, you know, we kind of created this nationally determined contribution for the
there are a bunch of nerds with spreadsheets on the Hill and in the White House trying to, like,
quote, find the tons. And this is a bigger anxiety I have around, like, that is a, like, a not a very
global way to think about a global problem, particularly in light of the fact that we no
longer live in a world where every country has, like, a binding emissions target. So I think
calling the question of how does everything we're doing in this bill relate to global
decarbonization and maybe your theory is the U.S. just needs to meet its NDC because it needs to
be a leader, blah, blah, blah. I'm not sure that holds anymore, frankly, but I think we should have
had a clearer theory of the case of how what we were doing here related to accelerating global
decarb. And also these find the tons exercises bias you toward near-term large tons. In that
framework, like, incremental subsidization of commercial solar is really good because it
delivers a bunch of tons. But investing in clean steel or clean chemicals or a clean
cement is, like, the immediate impact of those more innovation-oriented investments don't show
up in the models. But, like, industry is supposed to overtake electricity as a source of emissions.
And it's very difficult to model the effects of U.S. innovation on developing world. The causal
chains are so long, it's very difficult to quantify that stuff. I mean, there were political reasons
they were counting tons. You know what I mean? They were trying to satisfy. They were trying to impress
upon a lot of dim-witted legislators. You can't kill this. You can't kill this. You know, you're
going to kill a bunch of tons if you kill this. Like, I understand why they were doing it, but.
I get it. But, like, in this moment, isn't it kind of crazy? Well, I am sort of saying parts of it.
It's not that it was bad, but there were things that got left off the table, at least until the
very last minute in our search for near-term tons. And I think that bias is not always useful.
And I wonder also, like, how politically potent if you're in D.C. and you're trying to persuade a
to go along with you, how politically potent is it saying, look, if we invest a bunch in this
innovation, it's going to have enormously positive consequences in the developing world? You know,
is that compelling to people? Well, you know, we don't have USAID. How compelling is it to be like
we made up a spreadsheet and this is how many tons we have to reduce, like, and then for climate in
the name of climate? You know, it's weird. I think all of it is a little. I just think, like, on the
substance, there are a bunch of things that we need to do outside of the power sector that are
really important for us. And I think that's a really important thing.
Global decarbonization that kind of got left on the cutting room floor because it wasn't legible in
the same way other things were. There was a big obsession in the industrial sector with, like,
demand side tools by clean, you know, these ideas that we were going to basically subsidize the
purchase of cleaner goods to buy down the green premium, so to speak. And I kept arguing, like,
we don't have cleaner goods to buy. Like, I feel like we should have spent probably more time on
the supply side because other people are going to be like, oh, we don't have cleaner goods.
Otherwise, these demand-side incentives don't end up pulling truly novel, clean technologies
into the market, they just basically turned into a version of Buy American. Interesting. Okay. So
like that's the other thing. It was like so much Buy American. Yeah. Anyway, the Buy Clean, I think
I wish we'd have done more on the supply side on industry. Okay. Well, Jane, I have like 10 clusters
of questions and we've made it through one of them. Okay. Okay. Okay. Not your fault. I'll be
faster. I could talk about any of these for an hour. Let's talk a little bit about philanthropy
in a couple of different ways. One of the sort of interventions you've made, I forget if you wrote
a paper on it or if this was just stuff on Twitter, but I think there's an enthusiasm for
private philanthropy in Silicon Valley these days and almost a sense among that crowd that like
government is dumb and slow and incompetent and run by nannies who won't let you take risks,
et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And so private philanthropy is going to step in and do things
government can't. You have sort of pushed back against that a little bit.
I want to come at this philanthropy question from two different directions. That's the first, like,
why is it that you still think that government has a central role? And do you agree with that
assessment of sort of the Silicon Valley mindset? Yeah. I mean, I think it's fair and it's gotten
even worse actually now because now we're in this beard moment. And even if you think that
government should have a more robust role, Trump is now in office and so he can't be trusted. And
I actually think you see this a lot with the AI conversations where it's like,
I can't have state ownership of these companies because like then Trump is in charge. And it's
like, well, wait, didn't you guys like help elect? You know, it's just kind of like what's happening.
So I do think that some of this is true. That's sort of like more kind of libertarian skepticism
of government impulse. And I think it's really unhealthy. I think we need government. We need
a functioning government that can do lots of good things. It's actually like the most beautiful thing
about being human in my view, that society has like come together to acknowledge that we have
shared interests that can only be achieved through government. And I think that's a really good thing.
in partnership with one another. So like I'm quite enamored with the notion of a government
that does good things. And specifically, if you want to do industrial policy,
you need a big, active, competent, well-staffed government.
Totally. There's like a really instrumental argument for this, which is like, you know,
I remember even getting in some debates with folks about philanthropy funding things like
methane satellites directly, where it's sort of like, that's a really expensive.
Yes.
Surely you could do an advocacy campaign.
I always found myself kind of calling, I'm not making a judgment on methane
satellites. I'm just saying like, there was an example of like, and that didn't even come from
Silicon Valley, but the sort of like, are we being thoughtful about what are the functions that we
want an effective government to have? Where is philanthropy crowding in the public sector rather
than crowding it out? And to me, that's a really important question that's always informed the way
I've thought about grant making. But I think it's a real challenge right now,
with this influx of kind of AI and Silicon Valley money.
Well, the other way I wanted to approach this, you know, you worked inside philanthropy for a while
making grants. And so you had a lot of intimate behind the scenes interactions with green groups,
with big green groups, small green groups, the environmental community, let's say.
And my impression is that you came away from that rather,
rather disillusioned.
Careful, David.
I know, I know. I don't know. I don't know how much you want to get into this,
but I think a lot of this, I think it's helpful, I think, to air a lot of this out. So I'm curious,
you know, you've said on Twitter or anything, maybe elsewhere, that you think there's
something like an epistemic crisis going on in that world, inability to distinguish expertise
from advocacy. However much you feel like getting into it, I would love to hear your critique of the
environmental NGO complex.
God, okay. First of all, let me say, I have long funded when I have been in philanthropy and the
environmental groups, and I adore many of them. And there are great people working at those
organizations. Let me just say that. Also, you know, they are all different. They are not all
the same. Let me also say that.
Got to use the monolith, the monolith line.
One way to frame this, I think, David, is like, okay, I've been thinking a lot about our current
political moment and like, what's going on? What's going on? What's going on? What's going on? What's
next on the federal agenda for climate? And we can get into that later. But I remember being at the
Hewlett Foundation before the 2020 election and having a similar feeling of like, what the hell
is the plan? What are we going to do? We're obviously not going to do cap and trade again.
Like, are we really going to do the Clean Power Plan 7.5? Like, what are we doing? And thank God,
honestly, for the Sunrise Movement, because I think we needed some insurgent energy.
And I think that is kind of a symptom of one of the problems I see, which is just that in any
domain, if you have a bunch of really big organizations who share kind of the same large
funders and have kind of like a shared way of viewing the world and kind of coordinate and
have really big staff and have all sorts of interests they have to manage institutionally,
it can just be hard, A, to like generate novel ideas and like generate alignment across a large
organization about what should be done. And so I think that's kind of a symptom of one of the
big problems that we're seeing. So and so's organization's posture actually be on federal permitting reform, for instance. Like,
it's just really hard. And many of these organizations, like, grew up in a different
time where, as everyone has pointed out multiple times, the cheap objective was to like stop bad
things, the sort of pollution paradigm that I pointed to as problematic in international climate
governance also, I think, applies here, where it's just maybe, as Steve Rayner would say,
kind of a wrong trousers situation. And like, you know, a lot of litigators and blah, blah, blah.
That's just like kind of core to their institutional DNA. And then I think maybe
the last thing I'll say is just, we're in a kind of a new era. Like a lot of the work those
organizations did to advance clean energy standards in states, for instance, I think was incredibly
valuable. And now we're in a phase where like, turns out you got to actually meet those targets
somehow. The world evolves, things change, it's really hard. And like, you can't simply enacting
positive targets of like expressive climate ambition is not enough. We got to like actually
build this stuff. And that is just kind of like a different moment. And then there's the broader
political anxiety I have about someone who is climate obsessed. I'm also concerned about the
rise of fascism, not just here, but everywhere around the world. And like, as much as I would
like my party to prioritize climate change, I also think it's very important that they get elected
and need that autonomy.
And so like, anything that I think, and I don't think climate always is intention with electability,
but there are some cases where like running on climate is not a, we're talking about climate
hushing, I have to stop. But like, you told me not to bring it up. I didn't bring it up. Here
you are bringing it up. I know. I guess I think like so much of the posture has been pressure
for more ambition at every moment. And on the epistemic issue, this is where this has really
shown up for me is just for a while things were really wacky. And you couldn't even say like climate
change is a risk management challenge without being told you were a climate denier. And so like,
this notion that they're like, are in fact real trade offs on the path to net zero. We need people
in the world who are able to like, inform policymakers and decision makers about those
trade offs so that those people can use their judgment to make the right choices. That capacity,
academia, I've also worked in and it's kind of broken, obviously, maybe I should blame you for
this, David, because you've done a great job. You know, you've done a great job. You've done a
great job. You
were always like, this is a political problem. You got to like elect Democrats. That's the way
to do it. And so like, everyone kind of did that. But I do think we kind of lost this functionality
of actually just doing really balanced, careful analysis to like help people make decisions in a
credible way. Part of me returns to the thought that like, you want a group defending old school
environmental stuff, air and water. You want a group pushing for clean energy industrial policy.
You want a group doing sort of disinterested
careful empirical policy analysis. It's just a little crazy that we're looking to these groups to do all these things.
Yeah, you want industries who can get Republicans to say yes. Like they're not all the same thing. And this is why I get so frustrated when people say that I'm like punching the enviros or whatever. The only argument I have ever tried to make is that is a necessary but insufficient part of the overall funding strategy that a philanthropy should take. We don't have enough state
capacity. All these things that you've described, like we are going to have to build some new institutions now that we're like in this era of climate policy making. And I just feel there is a real reluctance to do that because it's viewed as like a threat to the status quo.
Well, speaking of punching left, I think there has been some concern in some circles that you're over there on Twitter. You're over there hanging out with the abundance people and the centrist bros. And over time,
that just pulls you into this world where the left irritates you and you become consumed with your irritation by the left. And I certainly like I don't think that's actually true of you, but it is definitely true of some of the people with whom you are in proximity who have let that vibe, that dynamic just consume them to the point that like fascism is raging around our ears and we're still
scolding the left about language questions and stuff like this.
you know, I won't get into that whole thing, but I'll give you a chance. There are other factions
involved here. And, you know, as we have discussed. Yes, I hate them all, Dave. As we have discussed
in private many times, everybody is dumb and wrong. So I'll give you a chance to say this new
abundance movement. I like a lot of it. I'm irritated by some of it. I'm irritated by some
of the people involved more than I'm irritated by the ideas. I'll give you a chance to just say
on some of the other factions, what do you think they miss? What do you think that crew, that crowd
misses? What do you think their weaknesses are? Maybe because I'm a nice way to talk about myself
would be that I really value epistemic humility. Like the truth is probably that I'm like deeply
insecure and believe that I don't know anything. And so I'm like, I really have a hard time
subscribing to like any one ideological worldview. And like, I really think pluralism is good. Like
I genuinely think that. And
when it comes to the sort of I don't self-identify as like an abundance person. I identify as someone
who has like a bunch of problems they're interested in helping to solve. And like,
I try not to become like reverse polarized by the stuff I'm overexposed to. But I have spent
like more than a decade in climate nonprofit world. So like there is something kind of
refreshing about someone having the courage, in my view, to like have my back a little bit and
be like, no, she's not crazy. Like this isn't to say that like all of these other tools,
aren't important, but we have to pay attention to this stuff over here too. Or like, we're not
going to achieve the goals that we all claim to share. Like we all just have to be more open
minded. A good example of this is like, I know you had Todd Tucker on recently, who I have a ton
of respect for. And you know, I've written for Roosevelt. I think they're great. But you know,
they put out this thing all about like more state capacity and what to do next and blah, blah, blah.
And there's a lot in there that I really agree with and like. And just to like as one example of the
other. Yeah, I'm also really good friends with Grayson Flood. We like joke that we're kind of
frenemies. And he's been writing about like a public grid and a public financing authority
and whatever. I think those are great ideas the left should be pushing forward. And if you bring
together the kind of abundance people and pro growth left that cares about public power and
these kinds of things, there's a bunch of shared stuff. Part of the abundance agenda, as you have
pointed out, is like increasing and enhancing state capacity. And how do we do things more effectively?
And what are all that? How do you rebuild all of these capacities and build them better? That's a
huge part of the agenda that I think the abundance movement sometimes leaves out. Although there are
people like Jen Palka, who do a lot of work on this. On the other side, I think it's kind of nuts,
frankly, to put out a bunch of proposals about the public sector doing very large, big investments in
things directly and also claiming we don't need to reform NEPA. Like, do you know what I mean? It
actually is the case that if you want to have very large public infrastructure projects, you need to
grapple in a serious way. And I think that's really important. But anyway, the point is just like, why can't we be more normal about this?
That's well said. This is also my frustration. Like people put your eyes on the target. It's so
much of the fighting seems personalist, personality based and like tribal and like team sports.
And people are just like mean. Like I'm like very sensitive when people are mean to me on the
internet. I get really upset and I want and my, you know, your inclination is to like curl up and go
back to a tribe. And I think
you know, we'll defend you. But half the time I'm like, well, I don't want you to defend me. I think
you're wrong about a lot of stuff, too. Like it just seems that everyone hates me. So I do understand
the impulse around this stuff. And I do think it probably is fair that, again, you know, where we
stand depends upon where we sit. And I spent a lot of my life in climate philanthropy and nonprofit
land. I developed a long list of annoyance. I think we share this quality in that we get
irritated by and want to argue with whoever we happen to be around. But the one thing that I
is like because I get annoyed with all the infighting, too, and like keep the eye on the
prize. But I do think we're having some pretty important intraparty fights about we do have to
actually defeat fascism. So like we need to kind of air out and like experiment. Like what are the
best ways to do it? Is it running Democratic Socialist? Like I don't know, but I'd rather
have that fight than like not have a primary or whatever. Yeah. While we're taking on various
factions, what about just establishment Democrats? They're not really the same as green groups. They're
kind of different groups. But like what do you think the sort of modal Democratic Congress person
is missing? On climate? Yeah. Specifically on this stuff, on industrial policy and climate,
clean energy. What are the Dems getting wrong? You know, right now they're not in control at
the federal level. So like hard to blame them for very much. I would like them to do, especially
after the midterms, ideally do like much more kind of oversight on the corruption. I mean,
there's a lot of really bad stuff that's happening. And I think there are a bunch of things Democrats
could be doing there. I think, I think the actual tension is not that they don't, the modal
Dem doesn't understand industrial policy. It's more like, where are we going to land on this
sort of fight between populism and industrial policy? Industrial
policy does require a certain amount of technocratic skill and expertise and state capacity.
Technocracy is out of fashion, but if you're going to do industrial policy, you need
competent, informed technocrats at some level to make sure you do it right.
And they're going to have to sometimes say no to things that pollsters tell them are popular
because they're bad policy. And so, you know, I've been in a bunch of conversations lately
about rate freezes, like in the electric power sector. And I think like, okay, sure. I also
have this, I mean, I hate polling also and issue polling. And I'm like, everyone is like,
oh, but freezing rates poll so well. And it's a little bit like, okay. Yeah. If you asked me if I
wanted to not pay my bill, I would say yes. This is not revealing of any like interesting truth
about the electorate. It's just like issue polling so much. I hate it so much. It's one thing to use
it as a piece of propaganda to try to get what you want that I kind of understand. But when you start
like smoking your own supply, when you start believing your own issue polling, I think it's
bad. I mean, this is, I've been following issue polling for 20 years now. You can get people to
want more good stuff and less bad stuff. And so you just tweak the question. Do you want more of
this thing? That sounds good. You're going to get them to say yes. The public just doesn't know
much. This is another thing you're not really supposed to say out loud, but like they hardly
know anything. So like they don't have deep fixed opinions on flavors of industrial policy. They're
just going to like say, yeah, that sounds good. If you phrase a question to make it sound good.
Same with like climate and all this stuff. Like, should we do something about this big,
bad problem? Well, like, yeah, they'll say yes to that.
And then do you want me to take $5 out of your wallet to solve this big problem? Of course,
they're going to say no to that, but none of that tells you anything about how they're going to
behave in the wild in actual plug it anyway. Okay. So finally, let's talk about Republicans
briefly. I mean, fascism is bad. I think we agree on that. Another big fight is like,
are there promising green shoots somewhere in that machine that are worth
expending a lot of resources? Obviously, like if there are Republicans who are
to the stuff you want to cultivate them. I think that's coming to the issue polling. If I just ask
people that, well, like, yeah, that sounds good. But the question is like how to prioritize and
should you tamp down or moderate your own message to your own people in the name of not irritating
these possible Republican allies? There are trade-offs. So I wonder like,
what's your take on whether or how much sympathy there is somewhere in that machine for what we
want to do? Sympathy, wrong word for me and my feelings about this. On the other hand, like,
look, I try to start with what are we trying to achieve on climate? Like this is going to be a
multi-decadal problem we have to manage. It's also just the case that the Democrats winning
elections into perpetuity feels unlikely given all the structural disadvantages among other things.
So like, I care about this problem.
I don't think you can solve it by like never having Republicans do the right thing on it.
That seems really hard to me. So.
But on the other hand, look at the Republicans, right? This is like.
Right. Like it's, yeah.
This is the rock and the hard place here.
And like, look, I've been in philanthropy. Like, I think two things can be true. One,
I think efforts to cultivate Republican champions on this set of issues have been
woefully underfunded, but also like some of it's been crap. Multiple things can be true.
I think part of the frustration I have is that it's never been clear to me.
I actually think the way in here is to be much clearer about what the actual policy agenda needs
to be as a first step. Like having this vague goal of like getting Republicans to care about
climate change is just, it really depends what you think they need to do. If what they have to do,
for instance, is like defend tax credits for nuclear power, I think there's a way to get
them to do that. If what they need to do is vote for embedding,
CO2 emissions and trade policy, I think there's a way to get them to go there.
You know, I think there are ways to move them on certain issues.
But if you're trying to get them to endorse grandiose targets,
I think that's probably fruitless.
Well, that's the thing. Like, what are you asking them to do? And I think like we're often
unclear about that. And I think step one for me is like, what is an actual agenda that is like
authentically Republican, you know? And I think there is space there in part because of competition
with China, but also because of broader geopolitical stuff. And I don't want to be
Pollyanna-ish here, but I think if you're clear-eyed about what you're trying to get them
to yes on, I see more space for progress.
On the other hand, I will say I was incredibly surprised of the many things that I've been wrong
about in my life, the degree to which there has been such cultural backlash to solar and wind
power specifically. Because one hypothesis I had back in the day was like, I don't know, man,
maybe like this climate could be like other public policy problems where there's like a
Dem answer and a Republican answer. And like, we kind of agree there's a problem, but like we have
different solution sets. But like the way the technology polarization has played out has freaked
me out a bunch. So I don't really know totally what to do with that.
Well, just like the epistemic environment over on that side is such a smoldering wreckage. One sort
of analogy I've been playing around with and see if this rings true at all is I often think about
the Cold War. And I often think about the fact that Republicans, at least in the post-war era,
kind of.
went along with democracy reforms and clean air and a social safety net kind of things,
in part because we're trying to compete with communism in Russia. And we're trying to say,
look, we do better by our citizens than they do. This was a big undercurrent in the Cold War.
Capitalism produces better results for ordinary citizens than communism does. And so that is where
lead, I think, softened at least Republican opposition to sort of
public provision and stuff like that. And I have been wondering if a Cold War with China
could have a similar dynamic on the clean energy thing, particularly. Like,
could we try to get that dynamic going where we're like, no, we, capitalism and free enterprise is
better for clean energy and good technology and advanced this and that than communism is?
It kind of seems to be going the other way, but.
I know. Yeah. I mean, I also think that the thing has changed.
One of the things that has changed is like demand growth. It's kind of a different problem is
structured slightly differently when we're all fighting over a small pie and like a pie in
decline. But like when there's a growing pie, I think it feels a little less zero sum. I don't
know. I think that there is some room for maneuvering there.
Okay. Let's pivot. Let's take a big pivot.
But I really just one last thing. I really think the industry needs to like give Republicans money
to advocate for their stuff.
Yeah.
That's also just true.
What do you think also about the solar pack that is just going out and shooting intransigent
Republicans in the head, taking them out in primaries? Like, I think that's extremely promising.
Great. I think it's awesome. Also, the more uncomfortable piece of that is like,
we can't only do the accountability stuff. We also have to cultivate champions.
So I think that piece of it is still a little under attended to.
Okay. Let's pivot and talk about data centers. Everybody wants to talk about data centers.
There's a lot of aspects.
There's a lot of aspects of this. But let's start with your proposal, which you wrote up in a paper
for something called an American Grid Infrastructure Fund. The idea, I think,
here is just let's get these hyperscalers who have all this money, who desperately want to
build these things to pay into a fund in exchange for the social license to build them. And the fund,
well, you describe it. I'll let you describe it. What is the idea there?
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thank you. And now, back to the show. You describe it. Yeah, I have been kind of thinking about this in two pieces. When it comes to
data center anxiety about electricity and energy, right, there's like a couple of things going on.
One is just basic good governance. How do we make sure that data centers are not screwing
other rate payers on cost, right? And like, we're seeing a lot of innovation at the state level
around like large load tariffs and other kinds of rulemakings around trying to ensure that that is
not happening, right? And we can talk more about that.
My view is that is like a necessary but insufficient condition. Because these tariffs
were not designed to handle all of the issues associated with the scale of the data center
build out. Leaving aside like managing the downside risk, like there's a ton of upside
opportunity here, I think, in terms of having new revenue to invest in a grid. And that is sort of
what I'm trying to capture here on the like, what doesn't get captured in the tariff thing. I think
a really good example of this is like, it's relatively straightforward to be like, okay, this
one gigawatt data center has these direct associated costs, this substation, this distribution
line, blah, blah, blah. But the further you go upstream to like, regional and interregional
transmission cost allocation, it's just kind of a nightmare.
Yeah, one of the premise of this whole discussion is that we can actually measure and quantify
those things. I always bump up against that. I was like, that's a lot of fuzziness and uncertainty.
There about what exactly is causing what?
I think we cannot. And in fact, I actually think it would be potentially bad precedent to do that.
I mean, one good example of this is that these ways of managing these cost allocation fights
for regional and interregional transmission are brutal, as everyone I think knows. And so like,
you know, when Maryland was doing a bunch of clean energy laws, Virginia was really pissed
at them because they claimed they were paying for transmission upgrades caused by Maryland's
clean energy laws. Now, Maryland's really pissed at Virginia for their data center policy
for causing them to, you know, like, this is just not a way through building out shared
infrastructure that benefits the entire economy and climate.
Yeah, I've been worried about these about the hyperscares playing the states off one another,
too. This is happening to some extent already, I think.
And they're already like, even the ones who say like, we'll pay our fair share. Like,
if you look at the rate cases, they'll often be like, we don't want to pay for that transmission
upgrade. So anyway, this fund idea, the premise is just that there's like a bunch of potential
upside here that's not going to be captured through these like quite opaque regulatory
proceedings. And there's an opportunity and I think an imperative to like capture some amount
of the generational wealth these companies are going to acquire and use it for something good.
So it's a federal program that you have in mind?
Yeah, well, the initial idea I proposed is a federal program. Sam Ricketts actually put out
today, a kind of version of this at the state level. And I have been talking to some state
offices about this. And I've been talking to some state offices about this. And I've been talking
about a version of like a state level fund, New York, you know, and Hochul announced the pause,
sort of so that they were looking at launching a fund. I think other states as they grapple with
some of these questions about cost allocation are also like, huh, maybe a fund could be helpful. So
I think, you know, and Virginia has passed a charge on electricity consumption by data centers
that's just going into like the general fund, which I think there are problems with that
approach. But in any case, yeah, I just think there's a lot of potential.
here. But it's funny, the politics have gotten have shifted. Like, I think when I initially wrote
that, which was in like March or something, I was sort of like, even if the companies did this
voluntarily, like now it's like, no, no, you must contribute to a fund or like you're banned forever.
Yeah, well, let's talk about the politics a little bit. You have sort of criticized,
I think, green groups and others for
Stop telling me I criticize the green groups, David, you're gonna get me in trouble.
For approaching this with a
kind of scarcity mindset. Talk about what you mean by that.
Here's where it gets a little complicated. And like, this is probably why I get like
abundance coded. I think in my view, we are in a very unique historical moment where we have
significant demand growth, the kind demand growth that we could only imagine in our
decarbonization models, but could never grapple with seriously. We have the richest actors in
the economy with apparently a willingness to pay quite a bit.
Of money to power compute. And so like, I think there's a lot of opportunity here. The question is,
what are the most catalytic things that we can and should be doing in this moment? And the truth is,
there are kind of two imperatives that are sometimes kind of intention, but both really
important. One is affordability politics, right? And that's where all of the stuff on like, get
more out of the existing grid, peak shaving, VPPs and DERs. All of that stuff is really important. I
have, in fact, a lot of money to power compute. And so like, I think there's a lot of opportunity
written about policy ideas that states should use to like do better on that front. So I am not at all dismissive
those things. But it is also the case that, as you know better than everyone, we are not going to
rooftop solar our way to a decarbonized economy. It is an important part of it, but it is not
actually the bulk of it, even, even under the most optimistic scenarios. Like, we need
interregional transmission. We need a lot more utility-scale clean power. These things are just
true. Batteries are great, but they're not going to solve this problem on their own. And so my big
issue is, are we kind of penny-pinching? Are we overly focused on penny-pinching at the expense
of generational big thinking on, like, rebuilding our grid for climate?
Well, I'm glad you're raising this about the affordability politics, because I feel like
everyone in the democratic world and associated groups is just herding in this direction. But
we need growth of the grid in the long term. We need a lot of investment,
and that's going to cost money. So, like, there's a lot of things you could do to save money in the
short term that would forestall or delay or cut off that investment that you need in the long
term. I think that's basically the dilemma you're raising. And, of course, this is where, you know,
the voice of Jigger comes in saying, like, the stuff you're talking about, the grid utilization
and stuff like that, is how you navigate that dilemma. That is how you navigate that dilemma.
That is how you get short-term affordability while still allowing for long-term investment.
And I kind of feel like nobody really disagrees, or, like, informed people don't really disagree.
This is another one of these sort of fake fights between, do you want grid utilization or do you
want investment in new generation and transmission? Obviously, you want both, right? Both is the
obvious answer, is it not? Yeah, I think that's totally right. The one other thing that the, like,
layer that I would add here is, like, that kind of assumes that you have two options, which is
reduce or increase the amount that we're spending on things. A third option is, like, change who's
paying for stuff. Yeah. And, like, that's where some of Grayson's ideas about the fund is one
version of this, but I think in general, like, you know, if you look at the LBNL report on actual
drivers of electricity affordability, in many states, the sort of grid hardening costs and
wildfire mitigation and that kind of stuff is not a, not an insignificant part of the
bill. We're going to get to this later. Let's bracket that for the moment. Final question about
data centers, though, is, you know, the politics have shifted dramatically, I think, even since
you wrote this proposal, even since, like, months ago, in not necessarily a great way. So even the
governor of Texas now is putting a moratorium on new data centers. Do you, what do you make of the
fact that, like, the LBNL report has become something that is beyond individual, specific,
answerable objections and has become kind of a synecdoche for just, like, people's dissatisfaction
with the state of the world and the state of income equality? And, like, it's just something
that everybody can sort of read their own dissatisfaction into and thus, like, is no longer
something that can be brought under control.
By these sort of concrete technocratic answers to the specific objections. Yeah, yeah. There is a part of it that, like, feels a little, like, mass hysteria-driven.
The funniest thing about this, by the way, is that I have been wondering, like, to what extent this
is, how real this phenomenon, like, it obviously is real, but, like, to what extent is it fed and
perpetuated by our broken information environment that is created by the same companies trying to
build the data center? You know, like, there's something funny happening there. But I think, like,
I hear you. And this is why I've been pushing back on, like, oh, we'll do a large load tariff and,
like, that will resolve the politics of electricity. It's like, no, it won't. No one understands that.
And, like, it's not responsive to the political moment. I think one thing that we could do much
more effectively is, I think we've done a bad, like, whatever, there was the ratepayer protection
pledge and then, like, all these individual states doing weird stuff. But, like, Democrats or
Republicans, for their part, or the data center companies, they're not going to be able to do that.
have not put out a clear, like, four clicks of more granularity beyond the ratepayer pledge
that's, like, here is what good grid citizenship is. And, like, this is what we are doing. We're
all aligned on, like, this is the thing. And I think in the absence of, like, a clear set of
asks that we are making of these companies and securing, it's kind of like, yeah, this feels
like a mess. Yeah. What's maddening to me is these companies have so much money. I listened to a
lot of these companies, and I think they're doing a great job. And I think they're doing a great job.
They're doing a great job. kind of coterminous with a giant build out of fossil fuel generation.
It's a legitimate thing to be freaked out about, I think.
Totally. I totally agree.
I mean, the two on emissions, I think there's like two reasons I'm freaked out.
One is a kind of like dilution of the resource mix.
So if you have a grid connected data center, you're drawing on a shared pool of generation.
That importantly includes whatever like zero marginal cost renewable energy, nuclear or hydro happens to be running.
Plus efficient combined cycle gas, right?
So like the effective emissions rate of that facility is the blended rate, right?
Whereas an off-grid facility's emissions rate is 100% gas because gas is the only thing powering it in most cases.
So like that's bad.
And I have high confidence in our ability to continue to put a bunch of low cost, zero marginal cost resources on the grid.
And the more that we can keep things on the grid, the more we can out-compete them.
So like that I think is really important.
The second thing that I think is really bad is that like a lot of these off-grid projects are optimized for speed, not thermal efficiency.
So you end up with these crazy inefficient, like arguably worse than coal gas plants, like these simple cycle or like aeroderivative turbine stuff running at like 100% capacity factor.
And a lot of diesel and kerosene backup.
It's a nightmare.
It's so bad.
And like some of the modeling I've seen, like you know me, I love modeling, only when it confirms my priors, that like the net effect of those two things means that grid-connected data center load, you know, without making assumptions about new stuff, new generation, produces like a much, much, much lower cumulative emissions by 2040 than behind the meter gas.
So like that is really, I think, quite important.
I also think this notion that like, oh, they'll connect eventually because it's like they all want to be connected is like, I don't know, man.
If you build. If you build a 400-megawatt gas plant to power your data center facility, and then like in seven years you get interconnection, why wouldn't you just like double the size of your data center?
Well, some states, some countries, like I think Spain is it.
I should have made a note of this before I launched into it.
But I think it's Spain who's basically saying if you want to build a data center, it's got to be 80% clean energy fueled, which would basically statutorily ban. You know, I don't know that there is the political will to do that in the U.S.
Because that would basically just like jam to a halt an enormous amount of data center building.
But like, what should governors do behind the meter gas plants specifically?
Is there a public policy tool here that you would recommend?
Okay, there's two ways to answer this question.
One is like, what do we do today, given this is where we are?
The other, which I would like to talk about at some point, is what do we do today, given this is where we are?
Why are we in this position?
And what would have had to have been different for this demand growth to not be met this way?
Which I think is actually a really useful exercise.
But on the like near term, what do we do?
I mean, there are a couple of things.
One, I think Tyler Norris has been aggressively advocating for a willingness to, you know, like non-firm interconnection, basically.
Like if you have a data center accepts some willingness to like accept that they're going to partially reduce their load at given times, can they get connected far faster?
Yeah, and I've done a couple of pods about flexible data centers that are capable of doing that, capable of accepting that sort of variable hookup, capable of reducing their demand on, you know, at a moment's notice kind of thing.
Yeah, totally.
So I think like non-firm capacity and like FERC has been pushing this and, you know, some RTOs are sort of trying to figure this out.
I think that that is probably useful and important way to get these things connected to the grid faster if they're willing to accept like non-firm interconnection.
That seems good.
The other thing is like Travis Kavula has been proposing this idea about like having kind of an open season where you have an RTO or a utility sort of say like at this specific node, here's this bare capacity, come get it, which is a way of pre-screening planned interconnection locations and cutting the timelines to get connected.
So like that seems like a basically good idea to me.
But what do I know?
I think SPP might be doing something like that.
And then I. I think like at some level, to the extent that a lot of this is symptomatic of how hard it is to interconnect, right, and how slow, you know, there are people who are focused on interconnection queue reform and connect and manage and that kind of thing.
And like that's useful, I think, on the margins and like worth exploring.
And a lot of this is downstream of the fact that we just don't have enough capacity and transmission.
And like for me, that means that we ought to take the permitting reform conversations a lot more seriously.
And that's not a fix overnight.
But I do think it really matters.
OK, we're going to get back to permitting reform in a minute.
But let's talk then about what kind of grid would we need to have where a data center could just come hook up and be fueled by clean energy?
Why are they reverting to behind the meter gas plants?
What is missing from the grid?
And I'm guessing your answer is some clean firm and some transmission.
Is that right?
I think that's probably. Probably right.
But here's what I'll say.
Like, I think the piece that is missing is like not a particularly sexy one.
But again, this is where I'm not an abundance person just exclusively is like we have lost our ability to do meaningful planning in this country on these issues.
So like, you know, in regulated states, you have IRPs and whatever, but that's not great always.
And in deregulated states, we're basically like the market will decide where you should build whatever.
And like what this has meant in practice.
Among other things, I think, is that it has been very hard to plan a grid for growth.
And so I think if you look at the states where data center development has happened and put downward pressure on rates, it has mostly been in states that had like a lot of spare capacity.
In other words, there was stuff that was built in advance of demand.
And this is where I think I have some issues with a paradigm the affordability politics is pushing us toward, which is like invest less, build less.
I think the risks. The risks of underbuilding are way bigger than the risks of overbuilding, as long as you're careful about who's bearing those risks, right?
As long as it's not all on rate payers, which I think there are tools to manage that, including taxpayer funding and, you know, all sorts of things that states are already experimenting with.
But like what you want to do is have a thoughtful electricity system that is built in advance of demand, I think, like anticipating demand.
And that's like an unthinkable proposition in much of the world.
Notably, Texas.
Texas did this with their transmission when they did CREZ, right?
Like they built out a bunch of transmission lines in a state that enabled both a lot of low-cost clean energy to connect to the grid very quickly and a bunch of demand to grow, including oil and gas stuff.
Anyway, I think that is a piece of this, in addition to just like having more transmission and having more clean firm, would have gotten us in a slightly different position.
But I don't know.
I would like like a real analyst to like do that exercise.
I have a question.
It's about all pieces of that.
But let's talk about clean firm.
This is a vexed debate for me, but it seems like the conventional wisdom at this point is that we need an immense amount of clean firm.
And that's why we need to be investing in nuclear and geothermal.
And people are still even talking about gas plants with CCS attached and all this.
And I guess I just wonder, you know, I talked about this a little bit with Lily.
If you have a bunch of new transmission.
Right.
If you get serious about transmission and maybe even like, say, link up America's three big grids and like, et cetera.
And then you have batteries, which are getting cheaper and cheaper.
And then you have longer duration storage, which is also getting cheaper and also starting to come online.
You got your flow batteries.
You got your iron air batteries.
You got smaller and more nimble.
Pumped hydro.
People are proposing and starting to build.
Why do you need so much clean?
Why won't more transmission plus more storage satisfy a lot of what people think you need clean firm to do?
This idea that like storage is like not firm enough or not firm in the right way or not manly firm.
I guess I just don't get it.
Like what's wrong with storage plus transmission as an answer to the problems?
That clean firm is supposed to solve.
This is where maybe this is a cop out, but I'll go back to like the very beginning of this conversation where I asserted that I take kind of a risk management frame to this.
In the real world, doing any of this is basically impossibly difficult.
So being able to like plan, permit, pay for and build the transmission system you would need to do what you're describing would be very difficult.
Yeah.
Innovation in battery technology.
I'm very bullish on, but that's a real challenge.
Like there's a bunch of stuff there.
But siting and permitting all of these renewables, very hard, very hard, actually.
So like that path, it has its own set of potential failure modes and frictions, as does the clean firm path.
You know, maybe advanced geothermal doesn't work everywhere.
We think it will be, you know, like whatever, like maybe the costs don't come down.
Maybe advanced nuclear never amounts to anything.
Like there are real questions about all of this.
I mean, the whole history of the nuclear industry seems to point at a very large risk to relying too much on that for clean firms.
Yeah, but I mean, on the other side, in the history of the world, the handful of economies we have that have actually decarbonized tend to rely
lie pretty significantly on nuclear power you know so like that's not to say we should go full
nuke here but like when i hear skepticism about this i do feel like compelled to kind of point
out like i don't know look around the globe at the places that have actually decarbonized and
it's usually on clean firm yeah but come on i mean all that was before solar fell 90 all of that was
before cheap batteries all of that was before we were even really trying in earnest to decarbonize
yeah but maybe that's the point dave like they did it like it still is a fact in the world again
i'm not advocating for like a nuclear maximalist path here but like i do think it's relevant so
for me it is just like i don't know what path is going to be most plausible and i think we need to
try a bunch of different things and i do think that it just like actually is true that like
while clean firm the term is like kind of a modeling convention and you can like discount
capacity credit and try to like
you know use elcc and capacity accreditation accreditation to like figure out how to make
all these things equal different resources just do different things in different ways and like
that's good it's actually good that they have different failure modes and like a good system
is diversified and then imagine a world where we don't solve all the transmission stuff this is
why i want someone to actually study this like say we didn't solve all the transmission stuff
and you still have this demand growth and we were still able to meet it with clean power it would
probably have to be what we call
clean firm behind the meter because like the physical footprint of powering these data centers
with like solar and batteries alone is just like very difficult to imagine and like the amount of
redundancy you have to have which is why it's not really happening well you know i think one of the
critiques people have of the sort of electricity market is that having that firm capacity if you
have privately owned utilities and you have these markets you have these energy markets it's kind of
hard to price it such that you don't have the capacity to do that so i think it's kind of hard to
price it such that you don't have the capacity to do that so i think it's kind of hard to price it such that
the system produces enough of it you know there's sort of the two options here are like you have pjm
which has a capacity market which tries to sort of do this and it has many flaws that we don't have
time to get into but then on the other hand you have ercot which is just pure energy market which
is whereas the sort of scarcity is supposed to drive investment in spare capacity also doesn't
seem to be doing a great job you have sort of floated
this federal strategic reliability reserve i realize this is like a quarter baked idea but
what do you mean by that and what is the need for it again like this is where like maybe i'm the
socialist you know who's to say but i guess most of my like real electricity market nerd friends
think that texas is a better model than but these again like none of these are perfect it's almost
analogous to the issue with climate pricing which is like in order to have a price signal in any of
these versions of the world that actually does what we want to do so i think it's kind of hard to
do people are going to probably be kind of pissed off yeah to me this is the flaw of ercot like it
would work if you really allowed electricity to get as expensive as it needed to be to do the
pricing but like the minute it gets that expensive politicians intervene like no one has the guts to
let that work totally and it's the same at pjm right now you know like this is like people want
to cap the price and like i understand this so the strategic reliability reserve is basically
just like a very not even quarter baked idea
around could you imagine a world where the federal government like procures on behalf of rtos and
states enough kind of dispatchable capacity that and pays for it to be available that we're not
asking every state and market to figure out a way to like have kind of backstop capacity and i have
no idea this could be like a totally insane idea but i'm just kind of like surely someone should
think about it
let's surface this because you sort of gestured in this direction several times which is
we need more planning we need more central planning we need arguably more central control of
things and i guess there's a faction of people out there who will just say well look you're just
working your way around privately owned utilities and trying to compensate for the many many failure
modes and things that they don't do well why don't you
just embrace public ownership you know why don't you just turn around and really like
full-throatedly embrace we need public like it seems like there are a lot of reasons and
justifications for private ownership of this stuff that i understand fully in history but
a national decarbonization imperative and imperative for massive massive demand growth
which is a macroeconomic phenomenon not a state phenomenon
just all points toward lots more public ownership of the grid of utilities and public planning
are you willing to just to throw your hat in that i don't know what the metaphor i'm
groping for is but like are you willing to embrace that idea yeah i mean i think it is
precisely the kind of thinking that folks should be offering right now like look at the moment
nobody is structurally in most of this country in charge
of planning anything on the grid you have for order 1920 that's trying to get rtos to plan
transmission at least like 20 years in advance and that's great but it's like barely taking effect
and blah blah blah and there's nothing really on the generation side so like this is the result
though of choices we made decades ago so we either need to like figure out in my view how to rebuild
planning capacity inside the system we have and there are like some ways to do that but i agree
with you it's like is the more ambitious the better and the more ambitious the better and the more
ambitious correct thing to do just change who owns and directs the assets you wrote a piece about
grid enhancing technologies for instance and these are all ways that we could make the existing grid
work better and cheaper but you know i'm not telling you anything like if you implement a
bunch of technologies that moot the need to spend more utilities who have a very basic incentive to
spend more are not going to embrace that and they're not going to embrace that and they're not
going to embrace them it's hard for me i've come back to this virtually every pod i do but like
it's hard for me to envision a long-term sufficient solution to these problems that doesn't address
the basic utility incentive mal-incentive problem squarely do you agree with that
yeah okay well let's talk about the utility incentive problems but like i do think on this
point you either need some kind of better planning processes layered onto the stuff that you're doing
or if we have massachusetts actually has this kind of interesting like grid modernization advisory
council process that i only recently learned about that is their attempt to kind of like bring these
things back together i have no idea if it's working or not but like whatever at least they're
trying you either need that some like dedicated funding mechanisms like the grid fund or whatever
or public power we may need a combination of all of those things depending on where you are but
like that i think is the issue on the utility incentive problem okay this one really fully
frustrates me i've got to say because i think the way that this gets talked about is not clear
about the goal we're trying to achieve and often like bundles together a bunch of different problems
the goal that i am trying to achieve is like building out a grid capable of enabling
decarbonization and economic growth right so like i again like i've been very clear i have a kind of
pro overbuilding bias here so long as we can mitigate who's on the hook for any risk of
overbuilding so for me at a
paradigm level i am just not as worried about overbuilding as everyone else seems to be right
now so like let me just put that on the table and if it were the case that i thought this is where
the like on the one hand i totally agree we should be doing all of like the efficiency and demand
response and ders and gets as possible and i've written about that and we should build a bunch of
stuff the difference between those two things is that you could if affordability were not an
or not an issue build a bunch of
stuff and solve climate change you can't efficiency your way to solving climate change
and so like for me that's sort of where i come that from this stuff but like if affordability
weren't a problem it's a pretty big caveat i mean this is whole jiggers point like if you just do
this inefficiently if you do this without doing it in a at least somewhat optimized way you're
just going to drive rates through the roof and get political blowback and you can't do it that way
i totally understand this and i think that that's totally fair but that is a different kind of
then like we can get there with just this set of things and i agree like i am in favor of doing all
of these things now i do think it raises the question of like okay what are the problems here
there's the problem of utility political influence there's the problem of the incentive to overbuild
there's the problem of the incentive to build the wrong stuff and then there's the issue of just the
cost of capital right that is how i think about utility incentives and these sorts of issues
and my frustration is that the popular fix here seems to be like
suppressing return on equity or performance-based rate making and i don't know that that solves
these problems so for one i think there's a category of stuff that's like good governance
reforms which is just like of course we should ban ratepayer funded utility lobbying and trade
association dues from the rate base right like of course and we should try to address like all
of the weird political economy dysfunction around the ways that utilities influence regulators who
their returns like that's real it's worth doing we should like say that it's bad
bad and like fight that fight with the utilities. And it does kind of seem like public power just
moots all those issues in a much more, much more direct and efficient way.
Yeah, totally. But to me, that's like populist and correct. And we should just like do those
things. Then there's like the incentive to overbuild thing where everyone's like utilities
earn a return on the rate base. So they're biased toward cap intensive solutions. And that like
theoretically is real, but I just am not yet convinced based on the evidence that it's doing
as much damage as people claim. And in this moment, I think the bigger risk, again, is
underbuilding. So like I'm really amenable to like, you know, I know you had Pete on to talk
about like more transparency into how local transmission and distribution spending is being
done. Like I think all of that stuff is good and important to do. But like treating utility
overbuild as the central problem to solve right now is just I don't think that's the fight that
matters as much right now. And like people are going to disagree with that.
And if I believed that having that fight would lead to outcomes that would solve climate change
or meaningfully help us solve climate change, I would be more open to that. But I have skepticism
there, which you may or may not share. Well, it's all just like if people could just be normal
again and not play team sports with this, like obviously if you want to overbuild, if you want
to build big and fast just on a political economy level, you need to use capital the most efficiently
as you can while you're doing that. So you don't create political
backlash. Like there's an obvious synthesis of these perspectives.
And it is really frustrating in part because of the opacity around how they're actually spending
the money in parts of this to your earlier pod. It's hard to eat for me to even like get the
evidence of like how much gold plating is actually happening. It's just like really hard to know,
I think. But that is a thing that I think matters. And I do think I buy the version that like given
a choice, they're going to gravitate toward utilities are going to gravitate toward the
stuff that's easiest to get into the rate base, which means local transmission and distribution.
And like that stuff is often also not that risky.
Yeah. To the extent they build transmission at all, it's within their territories. So they
totally, you know.
So there I'm like, yeah, more transparency and governance over those decisions. But like
this slam down ROE, it just feels to me like a pretty blunt instrument that discourages
CapEx more generally, not just the CapEx you don't want. And so like,
I just think there's downside risk and it's like not even solving the right problem.
Two more things. The one other thing is like, in theory, I'm really supportive of
the cap.
The move to performance based rate making or like toe tax or whatever, where you're decoupling
utility profit from CapEx and trying to reward outcomes. But genuinely, I have now talked to
people in Massachusetts and Hawaii and the UK where they've tried this and it is like not been
clearly vindicated by the results. And I don't know exactly why that is. I think what I've heard
is that it's just really hard to define the outcomes that matter. But like it has a real
mixed empirical track record. So like I'm not opposed to it, but I'm just like,
I don't think it's a panacea, which I don't think anyone argues it is. But like I am a little
confused about why it's not working where we're trying it. So I would love to know more about
that. And then the last idea that I hear less of that I do think is important is that to me,
if we're worried about affordability, the issue is the cost of capital, which is about capital
structure, not return on equity. And so if it's like utility investment costs rate payers too
much, I think another way to do this is to try to push utilities to finance more of their CapEx
with debt rather than equity. What's interesting here,
the Trump administration is doing a bunch of like, you know, they basically gave a giant
grant to Southern Company to like pay for their stuff. And like, I do think this question of
whether it's securitization or LPO funding or whatever it is like trying to get utilities to
use more debt is another way to bring down costs. Anyway, this makes me sound like a utility stooge,
but I'm genuinely just trying to like understand what we're trying to solve and what's going on
here. And I do get a little eye rolly at like, and I love Jigger, but this kind of like utilities are
evil profit seekers, but all third party VPP developers are like aligned with the public
interest. It's just like bullshit, you know, like these are all corporations with incentive
problems. And like, I'm not saying utilities don't have their own unique challenges, but they all
need to be governed appropriately. Yeah. Everything we've talked about for the last 10 minutes, I just
keep coming back. It all sounds like kludges and band-aids over the fact that we have granted
to private companies. Yeah. Like just do the national highway. Yeah, I agree. Before we leave
this topic, the one other thing about affordability that you have promoted that we should at least
discuss briefly here is getting BS off bills, I believe is the slogan, which is we have larded up
electricity rates with a lot of goals and programs of general public benefit. And I think the basic
idea here is if something is of general public benefit, it should come out of the general tax
base. And is there a more concrete, like, are there people trying to do this? Are there actual
bills involved? Like how far along is this idea? I think there's like some really smart people
where this is really playing out is in California, which I haven't followed closely enough,
but the wildfire stuff is a really big thing. And I think it's going to be big across the country.
So Melissa Roberts at the American Flood Coalition has been doing some
thinking about like how to grapple with multi hazard mitigation and grid hardening in a less
regressive way. Yeah. I mean, we should just say just in case any listeners don't know this already,
but just like one of the things motivating this is that paying for things out of the rate base,
making electricity rate payers pay for things is the single most regressive way to pay for anything.
Whereas the tax base, because you have a progressive income tax involved, puts much more of the burden
on people who can afford it. That's part of what's driving all this. Yeah, totally. Like the standard
energy burden literature says that I think low income households spend eight to 17% of their
income on energy where it's like two to 3% for higher income households. Like this is my view.
I mean, look, the reason people hate it, advocates of many of the programs that are
covered in these sorts of programs is that like it's a more opaque way to fund stuff,
not just more opaque, but like you're not subject to the whims of like fights over the
general fund. So I understand. And like many of these programs are very good and very worth doing.
So I'm not making a judgment about that. It's just that I don't think they should be financed on
bills. And in some cases, they're not a huge part of bills, but in some states they really are. And
especially this grid hardening stuff. And I guess maybe this goes without saying too, but I'll just
say it like if your goal is to electrify everything and if all your decarbonization hopes come down
the end to having cheap, abundant, available, clean electricity, the last thing you want to do
is make electricity more expensive. Like you should be trying to make electricity as cheap
as possible to encourage its spread. And so paying for wildfire mitigation costs on electricity bills
is squarely in contrast to that. It's squarely against that goal.
Yeah, this is why you're pointing out some hypocrisy I have in my desire for my gilded
grid. That is like, yeah, like I do think we have to pay attention to affordability for sure. And
this is a big part of that. All right. So only two clusters left. We've blown through our time
limit a long time ago. Let's talk about, yeah, I should have done this earlier since I know it's
a big thing for you. Let's talk about permitting reform. I think your thesis and I think the thesis
of a lot of people, and this was, of course, Lily Burmel's whole conclusion from her paper,
is that the real binding constraints on the bill,
pulled out of a clean grid today, is not cost. It is these regulatory barriers. What are people
getting wrong about permitting reform and what ought they to be doing? Like what is frustrating
you about that whole discussion right now? Yeah, I mean, A, everyone's really vague about it in a
way that it was probably enraging for everyone. So like, let me just say, I think the deal that
people are likely contemplating at the federal, so there's a federal conversation in their state
and local stuff. And I think that's a big deal. I think that's a big deal. And we got to do both. And the federal stuff is there are some reforms to NEPA and the Clean Water
Act and now the National Historic Preservation Act that are being contemplated alongside very
important reforms to interregional transmission siting. And then permitting certainty. So it's
like permitting certainty, NEPA, Clean Water Act, NHPA, and then transmission. Those are
like the three big moving pieces, I think, of the federal deal. So like one, everyone should
just be more specific about what they're talking about. I think the thing that I will say is like
a couple of reasons why I think permitting reform really matters for clean energy. One is the land
footprint asymmetry. So solar and wind require roughly 20 and 200 times respectively the permitted
land area of gas per unit of energy delivered. And that includes drilling. And transmission rights
run two to three times wider than a comparable gas pipeline. So like more linear, more dispersed
historically, more permitting exposure. That is like just true. So from that one would take the
permitting reform that makes it easier and faster to build stuff is likely to asymmetrically
advantage clean. I also think there's like a lot of fights about like whether NEPA actually
matters for clean energy. All of the data I have seen suggests that like one of the dynamics that
people often miss is federal land avoidance, despite the fact that there are often better
resources on federal lands. So federal lands are 21% of the lower 48, but they host only 3%
of U.S. onshore wind, solar, and geothermal capacity.
even though the desert southwest disproportionately federal land has like the best
solar and geothermal resources in the country so like there's something going on there third
we've surveyed a bunch of developers about like what the deal is and over 85 percent of transmission
developers and over 65 percent of solar developers rate federal permitting more onerous than state or
local and 82 percent of developers surveyed this year said they'd intentionally cited a project to
avoid triggering federal permitting so like that's they this is what the developers are saying yeah
i was going to ask you to sort of try to rank federal permitting versus interconnection versus
our state and local permitting as kind of like in their degree of severity their degree of difficulty
so you think federal permitting is the top of that list i think federal permitting is like
really the top followed by state and local followed by interconnection just because like
i really think some of the interconnection stuff is downstream of like a lack of
capacity to do that so i think federal permitting is like really the top followed by state and local
capacity which isn't to say that like you don't need process fixes to the interconnection process
but like fundamentally that is largely a consequence of the fact that we don't have
enough transmission capacity where it needs to be the other thing is like on transmission
exposure to these permitting challenges is going to get much bigger so only you know it is true
that only three and a half percent of new transmission lines required a full environmental
impact statement in the last decade it was 26 percent of new line my
miles in 2024 and of the 26,000 plus miles of transmission now planned an estimated half of it
are likely to trigger nepa and that has to do with like a lot of the transmission had been built in
the east we are likely to build a lot more transmission in the west it's going to implicate
federal lands well and a lot more regional and interstate i mean that's kind of the whole point
right is to bigger longer line exactly that is the point so you can't just look at historic
nepa implications for transmission and project forward and then the last thing the state level
stuff is really important because it's going to be a lot of work and it's going to be a lot of
work and it's going to be a lot of work and it's really a problem which again like may push people
toward wanting to build on federal land and they can't so like 17 percent of the continental u.s
county landmass now heavily restricts wind and or solar which is double the share only a few years
ago so like that's bad really bad so that's why like it all has to happen i think the permitting
certainty thing is like candidly i think my view is like lawless presidents are going to lawless
president and so like that just is what it is but if you're not going to be able to do that
that's table stakes that's table stakes and there are things we can do in law to try to constrain them
let me articulate some of the pushback some of the questions people have about this first i'd say
there's nepa reform and nepa reform a lot of different kinds of things can sneak in under
that banner and i think one of the things one of the i think fair criticisms is the concrete
proposals you tend to hear for nepa reform is just put arbitrary limits on the amount of time it can
take and i think a lot of people will just say if you don't
as opposed to let's better fund and better staff the agencies that are assigned to do these things
right let's do it more competently and quickly by having more staff and more funding of the people
doing it that asymmetry i think makes people suspicious they're like it just sounds like
you're trying to cut short the process rather than make the process work better or more rationally
how do you feel about that one you got to do both and you know i was in the white house when
this bill passed that gave epa a bunch more staff capacity and money and republicans championed it
actually to do permitting for co2 injection and one of the things i found was that like i think
that stuff is totally necessary but if you don't have the kind of if you don't have the political
and or policy change to enable it to move more quickly it just won't even if you have more state
capacity so like it's a necessary but insufficient
and i guess on nepa i think the thing that is probably most likely to happen and is important
in my view is that you got to have some litigation reforms especially to kind of judicial remedies
because right now basically the default resolution for litigation under that law
it means that courts can just like hold up a project indefinitely and like we should just
have time limited review like i think we should just have time limited review and i think that's
like not a threat to outcomes a more fundamental argument about nepa that i'm not sure i totally
am convinced of but i
jim conaton often makes is like nepa was one of the first environmental law and we now have a lot
of other environmental laws and any project has to comply with the clean water act and the clean air
act and esa and whatever it used to be the case that nepa was necessarily the workhorse of all of
our environmental planning and compliance and now it's kind of like i don't know man like with the
role that it plays is kind of interesting to contemplate in a world where we have a lot of
other environmental regulations i would say
i take it to be your position that democratic politicians should get engaged in this and try
to pass it now try to pass it in this session one of the other things people push back about
which you waved away a second ago but i think deserves at least a little discussion is
you have trump now forcing his agencies to very selectively intervene and shut down
clean energy projects specifically they're doing all this nonsense and they're doing all this
nonsense with offshore wind they're doing nonsense with onshore wind about supposed dangers with
national security drones some bs they dreamed up they're denying solar permits on public land
where as you say that's most of the solar resource it's the idea that you're going to create a fair
playing field and that clean energy will win on a fair playing field which is kind of the whole
pitch for permitting reform doesn't really seem to apply if you're going to create a fair playing
field you do not in fact end up with a fair playing field if in fact you end up with a playing field
where you've made it easier for oil and gas but then it's still hard for clean energy because you
have this rogue administration shutting everything down like you could imagine people making the
argument this is not a political environment in which it's fair to ask people so like at the very
least we should wait until we don't have a crazy fascist trying to shut down clean energy or we
can only pass this in this exact political moment
is the counter argument and like i totally hear this and i understand the frustration
and a i think that's why the ongoing federal conversation as far as i am aware can includes
quite significant permitting certainty provisions that are reforms that can close off like many
accessible avenues to willy-nilly do what this administration is doing and empower developers
in courts to respond more quickly and reduce investment uncertainty like those are all good
things worth doing which you can only do if you're not doing it right and you're not doing it right
you can only do it in a permitting bill and the status quo is the status quo so like i just am a
little the other thing is that barring things i'm not in the mind to discuss right now like he's not
going to be president forever and in fact if you imagine a world where there's a democratic
administration in 2029 a lesson i have learned is that you know these reforms are going to take
years to work through the system we're going to have to build state capacity they're going to have
to trickle down to the courts and to judicial justice and they're going to have to trickle down
to the courts and to judicial decision making and all of these things and i really think democrats
are going to want to be in a position to hit the ground running on their governing agenda
and i also for more like arcane reasons i'm highly suspicious that after the election it will be
easier to pass this bill right now you have a very rare moment of both republicans and democrats
being highly motivated to get this done the one other political wrinkle that i think is actually
important is that you know the transmission provision which we haven't talked about which
is actually you know one of the things that's most exciting is historically has been blocked
by states and utilities right and like right now both parties utilities have much less power with
both parties right now than they have historically had yeah they kind of are on the back foot a little
bit because of the data center stuff affordability so yeah and so like this is one of very few moments
where you might be able to roll them on federal transmission planning and permitting and like that
feels really important to me and i
will say like if there's a democratic administration republicans are going to try to block everything
they're not going to help them do anything they're going to block everything period full
stop that's just what they do that's just their mode and they will absolutely shoot themselves in
the foot to prevent democrats from accomplishing anything whereas there are some sane democrats
the final question about the politics of this is and this is something that's mystified me
the reason as you say hyperscalers are resorting to behind the meter gas and all these
workarounds is that they can't get enough clean energy they can't get enough clean capacity
on the grid and if you agree as i think a lot of people do now that permitting is one of the
primary if not the primary barrier to building more clean grid why on earth aren't hyperscalers
beating on doors in washington dc supporting this why aren't they using their political heft
sensibly why are they not in the front of the line pushing for permitting reform look i think
many of them are it's just been a very quiet negotiation is the honest answer like i don't
think that republicans certainly would be at the table in this way frankly if that constituency
weren't meaningfully pushing for this yeah i'm not so sure they're not interesting we've talked
two hours i have one final question or at least final topic which is you and i've talked before
and are frustrated by everything
group and faction kind of being dumb and wrong about various different things and refusing to
kind of look past their institutional imperatives to see the bigger picture it just seems like
there's no like everybody's groping at the elephant and like just doesn't seem to be like
a coalition sensible people you know what i mean who are like pursuing the big picture
in a way i think you and i agree would be sensible which is like a lot of these
disputes we've discussed as we've discussed the answer is both and the answer is to do all of it
there's just a lot of silly fights and silly parochialism everybody's got their blind spots
it just doesn't seem like if you're a person who wants rapid build out of a clean grid there just
is no clear answer to like what group
or what faction you should join and throw your efforts behind it just doesn't seem like there's
anybody that's quite aligned on doing the sensible things in a sensible way you know what i mean i
and i talk to people a lot of people in my audience who like want to get involved and like
i don't always know where to tell them to go there's not a clear group or faction that i
think i really like can endorse with a clear conscience who seems to be and we've discussed
like you i think are out kind of trying to assemble something like this coalition
but i guess my question is like why isn't there such a coalition and is there something about
coalitional politics as such that prevents people from taking this broader longer-term view
you know what i mean in some sense is it only possible for sort of
independent individual to be good on this stuff it's almost impossible to be good on this stuff
it's almost impossible to create a group that's good on this stuff like how do you think about
that like how do you think about coalitional politics and assembling a coalition behind
what we're trying to do here man this is such a good question and it's something that i've really
been grappling with lately because i've been working a lot on like what does a federal agenda
over the next few years need to look like if you care about climate in this new moment and
my response to answering that question has basically been to like identify the 30 smartest
people i know on like the topics i think matter and been like tell me what you think we should do
and that is because i think i share your frustration or skepticism about the ability
of like i think a i'm sort of the sort of like obsession with consensus-based
coalitional politics within the democratic party i think does us no favors because it
elides the trade-offs and it like just makes it really hard to like say true things honestly
sometimes and it can like be constraining on creativity because like if the answer is public
power like what 70 year old organization is going to like go on the record and say you know like
people are risk averse and they depend on you know a certain set of funders and they have their own
institutional constraints it's just really hard so i think like on the question of like what is
like maybe there's two pieces it's like where does the fresh creative policy thinking going to come
from and i wish i had an answer like oh there's this five amazing groups and they're just going
to figure it all out but i don't think that's the truth um and i think some of it should come
from academics too you know like some of it should come from workers so i think i don't have an answer
to that but then there's a question of like how do you actually implement the policies that you
think and the actions that you think are high priority and then i wanted to emphasize this
too like in terms of that consensus that sort of obsession with broad coalitional consensus that
is sort of everything bagel critique and everything specifically in 2029 assuming
things go well and there's a democratic president and maybe even democrats have congress
there is so much to do there's so much that has been broken there's like accountability
for the scumbags who have done all these horrible things there's like dismantling
ice there's like building back up institutions that have been broken and destroyed there's the
federal scientific apparatus that's been pulled apart all the agencies are now underfunded and
you know they don't have enough people there's just like the list of things that need to be done
is almost infinite and so that means one outcome of that is prioritization is going to be
everything because as we know like you got to get a few key things done and generally that's all
you can get done with a new administration like for whatever reason however much you might
lament that it's generally a few big things and so like we've got to uh specifically on this clean
grid question need to prioritize a few key things and like how does that work who does that work
who decides those priorities and who pulls every
buddy along well this is political leadership this is actually like one of my biggest critiques
of democratic politics right now is like the standout electeds i think have this quality
of not listening to polling on everything not being like true dsa member or true
moderates like there is this quality of just like judgment and taste and leadership and like
willingness to say true things that i do think people value and people are going to have to do
that because we can't say yes to everything and just on the fiscal question in 2029 like
brendan duke at cppp has just been tracking you know how much undoing snap and medicaid alone is
going to be and it's crazy like we are in a real bind so anyway i mean i think the phase of policy
development we are in right now is in some ways my favorite and i think it's going to be a really
important phase i think which is like we are and should be in a battle place of ideas and we should
like that right now we should just be like everyone say your best idea maybe it's public
power maybe it's limit roe maybe it's vpps maybe it's state-owned nuclear i don't really even care
i just want people to stay with their whole chests what they think the correct answers on the merits
are to a bunch of different problems so that we can have like an informed smart discussion about
what the right answers are on the merits and then the question of like selling it that is the fun
part that's the fun part and like that's where we are so like my anxiety right now is that i'm not
seeing enough of that and including from some of the like big groups i'm kind of like get out there
like what do you got let's just not be afraid of fighting and like eventually we will come together
as democrats around a show like that and i think it's going to be a really important phase in the
shared agenda but right now this is the time to like have robust debate that's democracy
yeah i mean i really like your idea because like there are good people in the green groups they're
good people in the abundance world there's good people in establishment democratic circles there
are good people in academia it just seems like a lot of them get muted or distorted by these
coalitional dynamics or by the dynamics of sort of group factional warfare and i like the idea
of just plucking the things that are going on in the green groups and i think that's a really good
idea i think that's a really good idea and i think that's a really good idea and i think that's a really
good idea and i think that's a really good idea and i think that's a really good idea and i think
best people out of all those worlds and making like a super team but when i think about doing
that in practice then you're a group you know what i mean like then you're a group and the other
groups are yelling at you because they want their territory you know what i mean like they want to
be the top group and like i'm so frustrated by those dynamics and i just really have no idea
how to get out of it and maybe you're right like maybe the only way out is through and we all just
have big fights and come to some sort of consensus not to be like conspirators
about this but i think that's right and i think like the one dimension of this that doesn't get
enough attention that i have witnessed is like there's a sort of intergroup warfare that is like
itself like frustrating and hard but the real issue is that you have a very large donor class
that is itself putting pressure on electeds with and through and informed by the groups and like
that is another constraint if the electeds don't have courage that's another constraint on their
ability to just like use their judgment and like hone their skills around judgment and like just
make decisions that they think are right because you have all these weird accountability structures
some of which are like not actually aligned with the electorate so it's like that's weird yeah it's
like the donor class is almost the most influential group in practice and the least transparent the
least involved in these public fights because they don't speak up for themselves and they just work
there so people end up fighting and they're not allowed to speak up for themselves and they just
fighting over the downstream consequences of donor decisions without seeing why they're made why they
ended up that way because it's like traces back to the donor class you know who's very opaque
yep and have concerns that are sometimes out of touch with the electorate in all kinds of ways
well i think we've officially talked about everything okay great done and done unless
there's anything else no god you think we missed
um
all right this has been uh lovely and fun as i knew it would be congratulations to any stalwart
listeners who have made it here with us the true hardcore people you're the best
Yeah. Thanks, Jane. Good luck with all your work.
Thanks so much for having me, Dave. And hopefully I'll be back again at some point.
We'll talk for a shorter period of time about more fun things.
All right. Thanks.
Thanks.
Thanks, everybody. You've been listening to Volts, founded and hosted by me, David Roberts,
produced by Nate Peavy, and supported entirely through the generosity of listeners like you.
If you have 10 seconds to spare, please leave a rating or review on your favorite podcast app.
It really helps other people find the show. See you next time.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Jane Flagle argues that climate policy must move beyond market-based solutions like carbon pricing and embrace industrial policy to drive clean energy transformation.
The "green spiral" theory—where investment in clean tech creates jobs and political power—has real-world potential but has been underfunded and underdeveloped by green industries.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was a significant and durable climate intervention, though it underemphasized long-term innovation in sectors like clean steel and cement.
Industrial policy requires strong, competent, and independent government institutions, which are often sidelined by political pressures and short-termism.
Green groups have historically relied on advocacy rather than building political capital with cross-partisan coalitions, limiting their influence.
A key failure in climate policy has been the lack of attention to global decarbonization and supply-side innovation, especially in developing economies.
The Silicon Valley philanthropy trend of bypassing government is misguided and risks undermining public infrastructure and policy capacity.
Effective climate progress requires pluralism, epistemic humility, and a focus on practical, large-scale solutions over ideological purity or narrow advocacy.
Summary:
S. can build a low-carbon grid, arguing that entrenched market corrections and environmental advocacy alone are insufficient. She contends that climate action requires active industrial policy—government-led investment in clean technologies that create economic and political momentum.
Drawing on her experience in climate policy, philanthropy, and governance, she highlights the failure of green groups to cultivate cross-partisan political alliances, especially with Republicans, and to prioritize supply-side innovation over demand-side subsidies. S. investments to global decarbonization.
Flagle criticizes the scarcity mindset in green advocacy, warning that over-focusing on short-term cost savings risks delaying essential grid expansion and long-term energy transformation. She champions a more expansive, public-sector-driven approach—funded through mechanisms like a federal American Grid Infrastructure Fund—to capture the economic value of data centers and reinvest in national grid resilience. Ultimately, she calls for greater pluralism, institutional capacity, and epistemic humility, urging all stakeholders to move beyond ideological tribalism and embrace pragmatic, large-scale solutions that balance affordability with long-term systemic change.
FAQs
Industrial policy involves government-funded strategies to support clean energy industries. It's crucial because market signals alone are insufficient to drive rapid decarbonization, especially given carbon's deep integration into the economy.
The green spiral theory proposes that initial investments in clean technologies reduce costs, create jobs, and build political power for industries that then advocate for more climate action, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of progress.
The industry is still nascent and lacks strong cross-partisan political connections. Historically, it relied on environmental nonprofits for advocacy, which has weakened its ability to build broad, bipartisan support and political influence.
Yes, the IRA was a durable and historically significant policy that advanced U.S. clean energy goals. While it faced implementation challenges and model inaccuracies, it laid a strong foundation for long-term decarbonization and innovation.
Models often focus on short-term emissions reductions and fail to capture the long-term impacts of U.S. investments in clean steel, cement, and chemistry—key sectors for global decarbonization that are vital for industrial transformation.
Government has the capacity to implement large-scale, coordinated industrial policy. Philanthropy can support innovation but cannot replace the state's role in creating regulatory frameworks, managing infrastructure, and driving large-scale investment.
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