Touchdown Show | NFL Divisional Round

>> The Action Network Podcast. >> I'm just about that action, boss. >> Right here we go. >> From the 10, growing in zone. >> Spectacular catch for sitting at the catch, touchdown. >> We see most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win. >> My God, that's incredible. >> Big banks, small banks, I like to make money, all right? >> This is the ultimate kabach. >> You want to bet? >> And we are underway. >> What's up everybody, welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by Draft Kings, our host Chris Raybond. It's a divisional round of the NFL playoffs. And we have any time touchdowns for you. I'll be joined momentarily by Sean Kerner and Joe Galant, we'll give out our favorite touchdown bets from each of the four divisional games. >> Pretty big week for the pod last week, and on Jaywin Coker, Kobe Parkinson, DJ Moore, Jayden Reed, Dalton Caked Parker, Washington, and Woody Marks. So, pretty good week for the pod. We'll go through each of the four games for the divisional round. Each give a touchdown bet. And that one will track all of them in a touchdown show account on the action network app. So be sure to follow that if you want to tell some of the bets. You can also look for the quick slip link in the podcast video description or but actionnetwork.com/bettnow before we get into the touchdowns. I'll toss it over to myself for a word from our sponsor. The Action Network Podcast has teamed up with Draft King Sportsbook, where new customers can bet $5 and get $300 back in bonus bets if you are bet wins. Stay in on the action and use your bonus bets on Draft King's same game parles. For a shot in an even bigger payout to get started, use promo code Action Network when signing up with Draft King's, again, use code Action Network when signing up with Draft King's, and bet $5 to get $300 back in bonus bets if you're bet wins. The crown is yours. All right, fellas, good week. Last week, Colonel, you're up first. We'll start with the bills and the Broncos. I mean, our producer was talking bills don't have any receivers. What are we doing? What are we doing in this one? I'm going to go with one of the receivers, actually, Keon Coleman at +5.50. I mean, Josh Palmer's in the IR. Gabe Davis is now in the IR and now Tyrell Shavers is now in IR with that ACL tear. So the bills, like you said, are very thin at White Receiver. And, you know, Coleman has been a huge disappointment as their second round pick last season. He's missed a handful of games this season. I guess for, you know, disciplinary reasons as a healthy scratch. But, you know, they should be forced to play him quite a bit here. And this is a tougher matchup, you know, against the Broncos. But Coleman's kind of a boom bust receiver anyway. I don't know if I would touch like his receiving art prop, like any kind of media market. But when it comes to his upside, like a touchdown market, I'm more than, you know, willing to roll the dice on him, especially because despite missing a handful of games this year, he does, you know, leave the team with six in zone targets. So Josh Allen, when he does throw the in zone, does look Coleman's way, he has more of a big play receiver. So, I think, you know, there's some value here taking him at +5.50. Yeah, it's him, Brandon Cooks and Shakir, pretty much what they got going on at receiver. Joe, good week for U.S., week you're on fire. I know that Saturday's Lee, I mean, you hadn't who's it, cocker, Jayden Reed, I seem like everyone you had, I got in the end zone. Where are we going to start it off this week? Well, this one, we're just going to go to the wide receiver one on the Broncos side. Courtland Sutton, he's around +200. He finished the year with seven receiving touchdowns. And for the season, he's tied for the team lead with Troy Franklin with 11 end zone targets. But that's kind of, if you use a full season split, if you look at just the second half of the year or even target it down to like the last five games, Franklin's taken a bit of a step back in his role while Sutton is kind of seeing an elite target share over eight and a half targets per game. Seven end zone targets and three receiving touchdowns over that final five game stretch. Also saw 11 deep targets compared to like the next one, seeing two and that was Pat Bryant. And Pat Bryant is another reason why I'm not really feeling the other wide receivers like a Troy Franklin or a little Jordan Humphrey or even Marvin Mims. They're all kind of coming for Troy Franklin's role. And that's kind of leaving Courtland Sutton to get that elite target share. And I mean, we just saw the bills allowed two touchdowns and wide receivers versus the Jags. And also, I think this is a kind of game script proof. I feel like if the Broncos are trailing, there's more pass attempts coming from Bo Nix. And if they're leading, I think they're going to keep their foot on the on the gas to negate any potential like superhero comeback from Josh Allen. So give me Courtland Sutton around +200. Yeah, he's their guy. I mean, he's the guy there always going to try to get the ball to try the most stable Bronco. Along with, I guess, Harvey in this spot. I'm going to go with Josh Allen at even money. And for the simple fact that I don't trust the bills passing game at all in this spot. I mean, Bronco's defense is elite. They play a lot of man coverage. The bills really struggle against man coverage. Just look at their top receivers against man coverage this year. Arnon the like Elijah Moore's best in yards versus Rowan. He's not on the team. Palmer, IR, Shavers IR, Davis IR. Like Shakira is like, he's a much better versus zone. So it's going to be tough, especially if Sean's Coleman pick doesn't hit. So, but I do think the bills get at least one, get it in the end zone. So it comes down to Josh Allen or James Cook. And now he's been running a ton more in the postseason under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. He has eight rushing touchdowns in eight games in over the last three postseason. So like Allen to get in the end zone. Again, I know he's hurt. But I think that's why we're getting even money instead of some minus odds. And it's a tough defense. But like like Allen to kind of put the team on his back as he does. So going with him at even money. Next up, Niners, Seahawks, Rematch. Niners have scored 20 points in two games. And then the Seahawks have scored 26. So this has been a low scoring matchup corner. Where are we looking for touchdown in this one? Yeah, I'm going to go pretty chalky here and go with my guy Jackson Smith and Jigba at minus 105. You know, Darnell targeted him a ridiculous 33% of the time this season had a, you know, a true breakout season as, you know, one of the top receivers in the league. Now, and but if you break down, you know, how Darnell targets him when he's under pressure versus a clean pocket, Darnell targeted him, you know, 18% of the time when he was under pressure. But when he had a clean pocket, it was all the way up to 40%, which is insane. And the Niners ever since they lost Nick Bosa back in week three. They've had the second lowest pressure rate. So I think, you know, Darnell should have a fairly clean pocket here. And we've seen, you know, JSN see nearly a two times higher target rate when Darnell does have a clean pocket. So I think in the playoffs, you know, Darnell's is going to continue to target his guy here. So give me a JSN at minus 105. Joe, who are we looking at in Niners Seahawks? Sure. Um, normally I take Johan Jennings in this spot. I don't love him in this matchup. And I get there's no real replacing George Kittle. But if there is been a one for one replacement in the Niners offense, I think it's Jake Tongus, the tight end. He scored five touchdowns this year. And in the six games where Kittle has missed time, he has seen a huge uptick in targets. I think what most surprised me is going back through those games. He actually led the Niners in total routes run in those six games. And he was second on the team in targets for route run and tied for the team lead in red zone targets. If you go all the way back to week one, like, for example, when the Niners face the Seahawks, Tongus ended up scoring against this defense after Kittle left the game with injury. Now the Seahawks defense, they don't really have a ton of weaknesses. They're first in defensive DB white versus the past, but they have given up yardage and touchdowns of tight ends. And they rank bottom five in targets, catches and yards to the position. So right around plus 350, I think this is a solid spot for Tongus to get another touchdown. Yeah, it may have to be him. The Seahawks have been so good against number one receivers. I think their number one in DBOA, Jennings has done nothing in the two matchups. I'm going to go with Zack's carbony at minus 105. And if you look at the last three games alone. So Charbonne has kind of been you started the years like to go line back and then Walker started to get more involved and eventually it's kind of foot back a little bit to Charbonne, but the last three games, if you look at expected touchdowns, that looks at, you know, where you are on the field when you're getting your carries or your targets. Zack Charbonne has 10 times as many expected touchdowns as Kenneth Walker over the last three games alone. So I think Charbonne is still a value even though he is right at that minus 105 number. You look at the last three games, he's had four rushing touchdowns and four touchdowns overall. Kenneth Walker's had one, but again, if you look at the expected touchdowns, it could be it could be a bigger split than that in favor of Charbonne. So I think the Seahawks are going to be able to run the ball here, you know, Niners, they tend not to stack the box. So like that's just for some reason that they've always prioritized just limiting explosives, sitting back regardless of what's going on with their defense and their linebackers. Very low stack box rate on the year for the Niners. So give me some Charbonne to get into the end zone for that would be the fourth game in a row. All right, before we get to the Sunday slate, don't forget, sign up for action pro for real time pick alerts from experts like Sean Kerner, myself, Grant Neifer, Joe Gowant, our entire action network team. Plus you could access our pro projections powered by Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Just go to action network dot com slash pro and get $20 off the annual price with the promo code pod 20 that's POD 2 0. Don't mess out on the best bets at the best prices with an action network dot com slash pro and use promo code POD 2 0 to get $20 off a year of action pro Sunday, we got the Texans going to New England to face the Patriots coming off that win against the Chargers. Kerner, who do you like in this one? Yeah, I like Jaden Higgins here at plus 320. I think if you look at the second half of the season, I think he was like my Isaac to slaw, where I've given him out like anytime I've had a chance to. So get out to go with him here because, you know, Nico Collins is looking iffy here because, you know, I suffer that concussion on Monday night so that gives him one last day to clear. Still hasn't practiced yet on Wednesday, so I'm assuming he's doubtful here, which means, you know, Jaden Higgins is going to be the, you know, wide receiver I think is going to have to step up kind of in his place. I kind of comped Jaden Higgins two Nico Collins when he got drafted. So I think he's a, you know, a pretty solid one for one replacement for him. And, you know, he's been much, much better in the second half of the season. He scored in five games now over the final 12 games. And he's scored a touchdown in both games that Nico Collins has missed. So that's, that's a very good thread heading in this game. And on the other side, you know, Christian Gonzalez suffered a concussion too. He's probably more likely to clear protocol, but there's still a chance. He ends up getting ruled out, which would only make this match up better. So I like Higgins here at plus 320. If Nico's out, you know, I'd be projecting him closer to plus 270. Yeah, and I like that too, because I think the market might be overriding Woody Marx a little bit, coming off that big game, but the Patriots run defense has just been, I mean, lights out against, you know, with Mill Williams on the field. So the Texas might have to still pass more, especially, you know, it's going position. Then, then, you know, you might think, I mean, they had a positive of game scripts pretty much all game last game. And in most of Marx big games too. So like that one, but don't forget about our guy Xavier Hutchinson. He'll probably ruin everything for us. Joe, where are you going? Patriots and Texas. Yeah, I was just going to say that both Hutch and Higgins, you know, price over plus 300 right now. And if Collins isn't going to play, it's pretty wild prices for a wide receiver one and two. But I'm going to go to the Patriots side. I'm going to take Drake May for an anytime touchdown. He's around plus 330. He hasn't scored since week 15. He ran for two touchdowns versus the bills. What's encouraging what we saw against the chargers still used his legs to scramble finish with 10 rushing attempts, 66 rushing yards. Now, he finishes. He's in only four rushing touchdowns, but he's live to score in any given game because of his scramble. He read all quarterbacks and total scramble. He was second in the NFL and scramble's per game behind Patrick Mahomes. And the Texas defense, they can likely get pressure on the Patriots without blitzing, but May has actually had a decent scramble rate against teams that don't blitz like the chargers last week and who are bottom five in blitz rate. He scrambled five times in that game. So going through the matchups of the teams where he plays that they don't blitz and they get pressure, he tends to see a little bit more of a scramble rate. So for me, anything over three to one, I love the value for Drake May. Yeah, Drake May, he's going to he's going to use his legs, I think, regardless. Guys are probably going to be covered, so I would expect him to that scramble rate to increase here. But I'm going to go with the 100 Henry at plus 210. If the Texans do give up a passing touchdown, I think giving it up to the tight end could be very likely here. Since week 13, they've given up five touchdowns, two tight ends, Tyler Warren got one, McBride got a couple of bowers, Aronde Gatson, so pretty much any, you know, kind of upper tier tight end, which I think Henry is, you know, kind of one of the top targets on this team has gotten into the end zone against Houston. And that makes sense, because it's very tough, you know, to score on their outside corner's lacitor and stingly. So Patriots receivers, you know, could be limited here. So yeah, expect some Drake May scramble and expecting him to look for Hunter Henry in the red zone final game of the weekend. Rams bears corner who like here. I think I know where you're going. You're talking about a guy you've given out a lot. Yeah, one more time. At least one more time. Well, yeah, I mean, if they make the Super will have, you know, a couple more chances to give him out, but I'm going to go with Blake Quorum here at plus 265. And, you know, heading in the last week, I was pretty curious to see how the Rams would kind of use their running back rotation, just considering Quorum mixed in a lot more over the second half of the season. And there was this belief that it was, you know, to help lighten Kyron Williams workload and keep him fresh for the playoffs. But, you know, Quorum was so good. And, you know, by Kyron being somewhat limited, you know, he's been so efficient that they just kind of stuck with that approach in the wild card round against the Panthers. So I think we could expect Quorum to continue to, you know, play around 30% of the snaps and see, you know, decent amount of carries here, because this is a game I think they are going to lean on their backs. A little bit more because Stafford's dealing with that finger injury on his, you know, right index finger. And, you know, it's going to be freezing cold. So they might just want to lean on the run, attack this Bears Rund defense. That just lost linebacker TJ Edwards, who, you know, has only one mistackle on 238 run snaps this season, the six loss rate, among 100 qualified linebackers. So, and you know, both Rams running backs like to run out the middle. So I think this is a great matchup for them, projecting closer to plus 220. So I like the value of getting at plus 265. Yeah, with Edwards out of the line at 5.7 yards per carry, a touchdown per game, a touchdown rate of 3.8%, which is, you know, 2.7% with Edwards in. So that's a pretty big increase in terms of touchdown rate for, for backs. And, you know, I think, I think that, I think the Rams, yeah, they're going to be super run heavy in the spot. Joe, who we like in Bears Rams. I'm running the, the guy back that we both bet last week, man, DJ Moore. He's around plus 320. And Colonel, you surprised me. I thought you were going to take Luther Burton in the spot. But I guess Quorum has a slight edge in your likability factor here. But one of the reasons why I keep going back to Moore is I think they've kind of figured out that he is going to be running the wide receiver one routes regardless of, you know, the emergence of burdens, the Kia's or Roma Dunes. They still kind of deal with a bit of an injury. And over the second half of the regular season, he was leaned on heavily, scoring six of his seven touchdowns. He's still getting, you know, wide receiver one routes and usage. Still ran the most routes of any wide receiver last week in the wild card game. And they're facing a Rams defense that likes to play a lot of zone. And then it's exposed to plays very similar to the Packers. And the other thing that I'm encouraged to is that they're really starting to use him out of the slot a little bit more. He was at a 34% rate in the wild card game that's consistent of what we saw during the season when he was around 31%. And we also just saw like a slot receiver like Jalen Coker have a big game against this Rams defense last week. Score to touchdown, saw a career high and receiving error. So I think DJ Moore is going to be relied on again. If you want to take Luther Burton at three to one, I will not knock that. That's actually a pretty good price. But I'm going to go with DJ Moore at plus 320. Okay, just a massive value again in my projection. So I just don't understand why the market keeps keeps underrating him. It's the burden effect, man. Currier talked them up too much. I mean, Colson loved one too. I mean, Colson loved one is just taken off. So yeah, that's how I'm sleeping on that's what I'm going. I thought I thought about Burton. So so I like Burton too. But I think Burton is a little riskier because there is a chance, you know, it's freezing cold. Bears may want to wean into their, you know, two tight ends. That's even more. They've even been calling up a fourth tight end to play special teams. Nickel a kill in it. So like they're they're they they're going to have reinforcements at that position. So I think love wind is kind of locked in whereas Burton usage the little shake here. So at two to one, I still show value on burden. He's averaging over a half an expected touchdown for a game ever since that breakout game. He had against the Bengals mid season. And he's become the number one target here. And yeah, I mentioned it. Rams struggle kind of interior wise. And it's it's this is just a guy that they're going to be looking to in a red zone. We saw them get a matchup even on a two point conversion. They got a matchup where they came out heavy and they kind of spread everyone out and love what was on like a mind back or edge rush or somebody somebody big. So like they can kind of dictate these things. So I love him to get in the end zone for the bears that wraps up the four games. But we're going to do our favorite partway. We're going to do our favorite touchdown bet each so that we can make a partway for the divisional round. And that is presented by drafting. So our favorite divisional round any time touchdown score, uh, corner, start us off. Who you like best out of these four games to score touchdown? Blake Corum at plus 265, you know, still mixing in quite a bit and that opening round of the playoffs. And this is a game where I think the Rams will lean on the run game a little bit more with Stafford dealing with that finger injury with the freezing cold and, you know, bears just lost top linebacker TJ Edwards. So give me Corum at plus 265. Joe, where we going? Favorite any time touchdown score for the divisional round. Courtland Sutton going to go with him. I feel like he's going to see 10 plus targets in this game. And again, I still think he's very match up proof whether they're Broncos or maybe even leading by 10 plus or trailing by 10 plus he's going to get at least 10 plus targets. We're going with uh, coast and love wind almost called him courtland. I think who is somebody one of those announces was calling coast and love when courtland love wind. I think it was whoever you paid that right. You know, yeah, who was that? Uh, uh, that, uh, was that hurt her streak? Yeah, I think it was herb street and Michaels. They had the prize. It was a prime game, right? Uh, yeah. Yeah, it was her. Yeah, yeah. He was, he kept saying cold courtland love wind and I'm like, oh, man. But yeah, if you parlay any time touchdowns with Blake Corham, courtland Sutton and colston, loveland 32 to one at draft case. So Corham and love wind would be kind of a same game. Well, correlation there because you know, Corham can get one early and then the bears, yeah, you know, getting getting down and of course they'll go with, uh, they'll have to throw and somehow get back into the game as they do. But yeah, that's then you add Sutton in there in what I think it'd be a low scoring game. I believe that is a walk under for us here. Um, that that bills and Broncos game. So all together, 32 to one, pretty juicy. That's our anytime touchdown parlay for the divisional round presented by draft kings. All right, we're going to add, uh, we'll add our, uh, favorite parlay to the parlay express account and the action that we're actually can follow that account too. Uh, if you haven't already, that's where we post our longer shop bets and things like that. So have some fun with us and follow that account. If you're looking for those type of bets and while you're looking at parlay express, be sure to sign up for action pro. It's the only way for you to get the best bets at the best prices with immediate notifications when acts can experts track their picks and those lines do move. Uh, Colonel and I mean, we were just talking on a pod about I think it was Xavier Hutchinson at like 37 and a half and I'm looking down. He's like a 29 and a half. I didn't even get to bet it yet. So I probably won't at this point. But yeah, he's wise move even when we don't, even when we don't. So uh, be sure to sign up for action pro to get those into notifications. You can also find quick slip links for the bets that we've made in this podcast, uh, in the podcast description or you can go to actionnetwork.com/bett. Now that will do it for our divisional round touchdown show presented by draft kings. Many thanks to Sean Carter and Jill going for joining me. If you haven't yet, you can check out our new AI quick slip bot playbook on X. Just tag @playbook. Also, you can find uh, Colonel on X at the underscore odds maker and Jill at G dog 5000 G DAW G500 zero zero. I'm at Chris Raybomber at those same handles. On the free award winning action network app. So next week. [Music]