Speaker 1The time is coming swiftly, the middle rounds are now placed for the unskilled. Yet here you are, unprepared, you fools. This season you will find all kinds of foes, eager to watch your draft crumble with wasted picks. There can only be one ultimate draft kit. Only one that can bend them to its will. And it does not share power. You must wield the UDK and send your opponents back to the shadows. You shall not pass on this chance to send your reedmates into the deep. Fly, you fools, to ultimate-draft-kit.com. We'll see you next week.
Speaker 2Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
Speaker 3Welcome in. Welcome in. Welcome in. Welcome in. Welcome in. the fantasy footballers wednesday august 12th mike the fantasy hitman jason moore andy holloway back at it top 10 running back show we'll jump into some mailbag we got lots going on it is that time of year we're in the midst of uh an opportunity for that udk for life if you want to win that what
Speaker 4an opportunity what an opportunity mike for life for life goodness and assign jamar chase jersey
Speaker 3pick up the udk before august 24th use it to prepare for your draft set the foundation for your team we are priming up draft season is here i cannot wait um i've had some opportunities to trade some picks and i've i've not done it simply because i don't want to take away some of my draft
Speaker 5day fun understandable and one thing you've always said is that your draft picks can't get injured no so if you trade some draft picks for keepers their groins are fine right yeah i um much like
Speaker 3jk dobbins everything is fine yeah can't get hurt no if you trade for him you're fine now it was like yesterday i think jason and i were talking a little it's a bigger deal as some hampton and jacobs and other pieces and i passed on it and then the next morning you get the news that like puka nakua and jacobs could still face discipline and i was just thinking about my discipline where my head where my headspace would have been yeah it would have been great you would you would have i would have just been i mean he might not i mean i still think the odds are probably maybe that he doesn't but but we hadn't heard anything about it for i know some time and then i would have been so
Speaker 4and then a reporter who will not be named on this podcast delivered some news that is that who it was
Speaker 3yeah you don't name him now no okay but what's his name uh schmom oh man smell a sarah uh no no no oh
Speaker 4no it wasn't him what no he's moved past tom yeah oh me and tom were i'd i'd squash that beef
Speaker 3like me i see he's got me and him are cool now you're talking about uh whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa big dog michael mike i've known you for 20 years you you hold grudges you do you pick a few you you do it on both sides you got your favorite guys that you hold on to forever never let go yeah
Speaker 5that you'll never let go of yeah i'm a loyal person been senate um and then you any minute
Speaker 3i am the senate but then if if it's the wrong side it's a forever thing it feels like i was slighted at the ff ballers on x quick question comes in describe the trash talk between the three of you and your leagues what are your main tactics are there any comparisons to a character evil villain oh describe yourself or one of the other ballers um who's the who's the biggest trash talker when things are going right among the three of jason i don't know that
Speaker 5do you think i don't i think i'm the biggest complainer when things go wrong yeah you are the
Speaker 3tiniest yeah babies for sure yeah that's not trash talking you talk yourself i think i think
Speaker 5our dog yourself my usual go-to when i mean it's not trash talk but it's the same spirit of what you're talking about is the early congratulations the building you up the setting you you know it's it's like telling someone how well they're playing at golf to try to throw them off their game no but it's like gift talking yeah exactly that's my version i would say mike has become
Speaker 3pretty annoying it's in recent history because insufferable insufferable because i won both the
Speaker 4leagues what is the problem here yep that'll do it yeah i'm just champing over here man
Speaker 3yeah i'm just saying it's annoying because what happens is is like i know the truth is pretty annoying we have a lot of conversations and then you'll just inject yourself in as the guy that's gonna win instead of these other conversations all the time i think one of my
Speaker 6favorite trash i do have a lot of confidence in my dynasty your dynasty
Speaker 3team is what i'm talking about i will you like to read through my roster so the other i looked at it
Speaker 5i don't know how it stops for 10 years the other day i i was i was making a trade i've got a i've got a solid uh roster in our dynasty yes your dynasty team is pretty good i'm competing uh along with silver look good on you and i thank you there it is and i uh i was i was just i was looking at trades in the league and i'm i've got the whole you know where you see the whole league at once on the board and i and i came across your team i start just reading and i was just like oh no you're so good that team is yeah loaded i was like wait
Speaker 3and the bench jamar chase and cd and george pickens yeah and ken bone walking into freaking kansas city who we'll talk about today did you see he was on my bench jay do you remember his
Speaker 4bench is great too no garrett wilson oh my god he doesn't that guy can't even crack my starting
Speaker 3roster this is what i'm talking about yeah this is exactly it's just a good team most people if they don't i mean you should do what you're doing it's just that when we have doing it a lot of people have to equivocate because there are paths to losing and you're in a position where you're like your your bench is much better than my starting roster well that's not fair your team
Speaker 5isn't your your team you have blown your team up for a rebuild on purpose yes repo man showed up yeah no i mean that's like you can't compare you can't compare that um no but like you're not going
Speaker 3to win jay did you how dare you did you know that you're not going to win this year you won't you won't be winning it just takes one week for mike to lose one bad week and you won't have it it's
Speaker 4going to be a this is how good my team is your other people will talk garbage for me that's what
Speaker 3i just did didn't i why i'm i'm your co-man my team's name in that league right now is mike's
Speaker 5butt yeah because in our league the winner gets to uh name the last place team and current place
Speaker 3holder is yeah mike's butt that's fine mike you and mike was like the the the silver medalist a couple times he was on we were taunting with that when we had two titles all right anyways uh look
Speaker 5we're we're this far in i hate this why what a stupid question that has got us now talking about
Speaker 3mike's team but i would never do that people are gonna want to know my team only has gibbs walker hampton cd in our league of record and then like a bunch of picks so here's mike's team he's got
Speaker 5joe burrow and jared goff with flacco behind burrow this is his dynasty team christian mccaffrey so you got age here mccaffrey and derrick henry yeah and ken bone walker and jamar chase and cd lamb and running backs george pickens jordan mason probably right yeah and rico uh and all and all three insurance running backs yeah and you got pat bryant who's been the oh bro pat bryant and garrett this is the best show we've ever done and don tavian wicks oh and trey mcbride oh yeah wait did you say love
Speaker 6he has mcbride oh you have loveland too oh my gosh this is disgusting i'm out i'm quitting this league i don't like this league you have mcbride and loveland all of my picks oh my all of them you
Speaker 3never traded anyway no no this is the greatest constructed roster i hate everything here's everybody in here we cannot do this show anymore no let's move on news and notes from around the
Speaker 2league
Speaker 3the nfl network ian rapaport talking about the fact pukunuku is dealing with minor soreness he had left with a trainer it's in his groin it's been a bad bad week for groins you know as jason
Speaker 5would say just do a butterfly they got someone teaches dudes how to butterfly stretch that's
Speaker 4obviously what's missing you sit on your butt you bring your feet together and it looks like you got two little
Speaker 3butterfly wings you've lost me they don't know what that is there's no way by concept ameka buka limped off with trainers and that was uh today yeah this is
Speaker 4like 20 minutes ago.
Speaker 3He's watching the rest of practice with his cleats off. No other reports. If we get one before the end of the day, we'll let you know.
Speaker 4I do like that the follow-up was Abuka with both cleats off.
Speaker 5Yeah. Thank you for specifying both of them.
Speaker 4I mean, I guess if you have one off, you think maybe it's just a – that's the leg, that's the ankle. I don't know. It's just a funny report.
Speaker 3Mike Evans did return to practice with the quad injury. There he goes. And J.K. Dobbins returned to individual drills.
Speaker 5Yes. Nothing to see here.
Speaker 3No, everything's fine. Everything's fine. Yeah, good luck, J.K. Stay healthy. Today should be fun. We're counting down the top ten running backs. All of our consensus rankings, player projections, sleepers, breakouts, bus values are in the UDK at ultimatedraftkit.com. Let's go ahead and jump right in.
Speaker 2Running Bags.
Speaker 3All right. What makes a top ten running back in fantasy? Since 2015, among those finishing in the top ten, 79% averaged 19 or more opportunities per game. That was part of your discussion with Hampton yesterday, trying to get to that number. 72% of top ten running backs saw at least 50 targets. You want to be involved in the passing game.
Speaker 5And the 28% is named Derrick Henry.
Speaker 3It feels like, yeah, that's pretty much it. And then 94% of top ten running backs saw at least 50 targets. You want to be involved in the passing game. And the 28% is named Derrick Henry. It feels like, yeah, that's pretty much it. And then 94% of top ten running backs saw at least 50 targets. You want to be involved in the passing game. And the 28% is named Derrick Henry. And 94% of top five running backs had 10 or more total touchdowns. So that's a huge number. That's nearly everyone always 10 or more total touchdowns. You would have to be basically Eckler levels of receiving work.
Speaker 5I mean, 94%. That's like, if you want to be, you have to have the touchdown upside.
Speaker 3And that's in the last 11 years. So you're talking about a long, like a large sample.
Speaker 5Yeah, I mean, that's why we prefer... You know, players on good teams. Teams that are going to win are going to score more points. And it's not always the case, but you really need 10 touchdowns.
Speaker 3The average, if you just average out the last 10 years, it's 20 opportunities, 200 and... Rushing attempts, 1,182 yards. So you don't have to lead the league in rushing by any stretch. 10.5 rushing touchdowns, 68 targets, 53 catches, 436 receiving yards. And 2 receiving touchdowns, 2.7.
Speaker 5Before we move on, I just, I figured I'd look this up since we were just talking. You need 10 touchdowns. Here is the current sportsbook top 5 for 10 or more rushing touchdowns. Oh, nice. Number 1, Jameer Gibbs. Yeah. Has the highest odds to get 10 touchdowns. Ahead of Derrick Henry, who's number 2. Jonathan Taylor. Yeah. Number 3, James Cook. Number 4. And number 5, Kyron Williams. I did that whole bit to get to Kyron Williams.
Speaker 3Yeah. Yeah, yeah. They're a good team.
Speaker 4Well, if you're going to do the top, you've got to do the top 5.
Speaker 3Right. Yeah. Of course. Number 6, Blake Cor... No, I'm just kidding. Who's number 6? 6 is Javante Williams. Okay. I mean, that says something. Yeah. He doesn't... He'll have the targets. The yards will be like 112.
Speaker 5Yeah. It's... I mean, it's worth... It's worth noting, you know, the debate at 101 of Gibbs versus Bijon. We haven't said Bijon's name. And that, to me, is the...
Speaker 4I have moved Gibbs ahead. Yeah. So, I think we're fully unanimous now if Gibbs should be the first pick. Number 10.
Speaker 3By the way, Josh Allen is at 11 and a half rushing touchdowns.
Speaker 5Yeah. He would be third on this list as far as odds to get to 10.
Speaker 3Chase Brown at number 10. Jason and Mike have him at 8. I have him at 11. I love Chase Brown as well. It's just how it broke down. He is... He's kind of... It's a perfect situation for Cincinnati, I think, with Chase Brown being their back. He's been so consistent the last two years. Just look at the points per game numbers. 14.3, 14.6. There have been reports in camp of him lining up in the slot more. He is a pass catcher. He is not a triple B, right? He's not a big-bodied back. No, he's not. He's not going to... But that's... That's what I'm saying. For Cincinnati, it's awesome because...
Speaker 4He's right in that... He's 5'10", 2'10", is what I see listed. Like, that is... 2'10 to 2'15 is truly a... Yeah, you can take the work. It's like, that's the perfect weight where you can be agile enough to work in the receiving game, and you're still big enough to go between the tackles. Chase Brown...
Speaker 3He only had five games last year in the 17 where he scored a rushing touchdown.
Speaker 5Yes, that is true. But obviously, the team environment to be able to score a lot of touchdowns... And he had double-digit touchdowns. The Bengals would be there. I mean, here's the nice thing. You have to remember last year how bad the beginning of the season was for the Bengals. Burrow got off to a slow start, got injured, and then they didn't have Flacco until week six. So that team environment... You know, Chase Brown, a lot of people are like, ah, he's just a product of the team environment. And maybe that's true. Because the team environment is fantastic. And now Joe Flacco is the backup. So should Burrow go down, we saw Chase Brown be fine with... If you look at Flacco from week six on, you've got a... You mean Chase Brown? Chase Brown from the Flacco weeks. You know, that would be... He was on pace for 1,200 yards, seven rushing touchdowns, 93 targets with seven receiving touchdowns. He was better than the running back eight finish that he had last year. And that's pretty darn good.
Speaker 4Chase Brown is... Yeah. He's one of my... One of my favorite picks in fantasy. The... Like, I think he is a talented running back, but the situation is just so perfect. He does... Like, he's not, you know, that the, like, McCaffrey-Gibbs-Bijon player where if everything goes terrible for the Bengals, it will... I don't think Chase Brown can overcome that. But they're set up in such a situation of this year where they're more protected than ever. Andy, you said they're talking about lining up. They're talking about lining up in the slot. We like hearing that little news blurb. They're also talking of just an emphasis of this year, as it seems like more and more teams are now, is, okay, we're going to get back to under center. We want more explosive runs from Chase Brown, who was already a pretty explosive player from that week six on, you know, that when Joe Flacco kind of fixed the offense through the ending with Burrow, Chase Brown's running for 5.1 a carry. Like, he was already a very efficient running back on the ground. You know, during that time.
Speaker 3320 opportunities last year. Are you perfectly comfortable with him as your RB1? Yes. 100%. Yeah.
Speaker 4If you want to start with a high-level, elite wide receiver and then come back and get Chase Brown, that feels good.
Speaker 5That's, like, my favorite start when you're in the middle to late. If you can get Amon Ross-St. Brown, you know, or sometimes JSN goes fourth, but assuming that Amon Ross goes as the fourth wide receiver gone and come back around and grab Chase Brown, I adore. I adore that start. I mean, the depth chart around him is just, it's a 30-year-old Samaje Pirine is the backup, and then it's Taj Brooks. Like, there's no one else here to compete. He has matrix dodged the last few drafts. The free agent market, yeah.
Speaker 3The only kind of negative about Chase Brown, his red zone success rate has been bad. 13 carries inside the five two years ago, only six touchdowns on the 13 carries, and that's inside the five. 13 carries inside the five. Last year, only four rushing touchdowns. 31% of those converted. The most opposite compared to... Number nine. Derek Henry. Forever and always. The Yeti. I didn't realize how low I have him. Interesting.
Speaker 5He comes in at nine. I guess I have him at ADP. Yeah, I don't blame you for having him there. I've got him at running back six, and I don't... I got him at 12. I don't love it. I mean, there's tons of risk. Williams was the last running back to be 32 years old or older with 10 rushing touchdowns. It's not an easy feat, and this... I know he's a Yeti, but guys, he's actually a human being.
Speaker 3Yeah, I mean, it's... I've heard. There are some changes, right? The offense is changing. We have a new system in place. We'll see what that becomes. Mike, you've got him at seven. His sleeper ADP is RB12, so you get him late round. That seems great. I mean, it's where I have him ranked. I would take him at ADP with no qualms.
Speaker 5I mean, he was the running back three, the running back two, missed half a season as the running back 16, then the running back four, then the running back eight, then the running back two, then the running back seven. It's like he is just a top 10 running back every year of his career. The only question, the only thing is, did father time catch up? And that's the... If it hasn't, then it...
Speaker 3Let me... Let me read the concerns on the top 10 ranking shows that we've had for him over the last five years. Age, age, age, age, age, age, age, age, age. So in 2021, we said he has a lack of targets. Which was true. In 2022, we said the age was starting to become a concern. In 2023, we said... That was a long time ago. Age and wear and tear. In 2024, we said age. In 2025, fifth season in a row, basically, with an age concern. Yeah. It's the Frank Gore. Now, it did. It did end up happening at some point in time. If you want to look at a way it kind of slows, I don't think it goes to nothing. That's where I think the pick is fine. You've got a new offensive system, and you've got an offensive line that just lost. We talked about Genting. They picked up Tyler Lindenbaum. He's gone. They lost their all-pro fullback in Ricard. Gone. They lost their tight end Charlie Kohler, got a big contract to go to Los Angeles. They lost Isaiah Likely. They're the 26th-ranked offensive line. And this is, you know, he's not going to have 50-plus receptions. So, you know, that would be the maybe things could slow a little bit. They're projected to win a bunch of games.
Speaker 4Yeah.
Speaker 3And when they win, you win.
Speaker 4Oh, when they win, Derrick Henry scores a ton of points. And the way to stop Henry is you have to hit the train before it starts going. So if the offensive line is not giving him some room to at least get a couple steps to get up to speed, then things may not be so great. It's really, I mean, it's really just age. Do you want to bet that this is the year that Henry falls off? Then avoid him.
Speaker 3It just feels like at ADP, that's like, that would be a fallout. If at the end of the year you're like, oh, Henry finished at RB12, you're like, oh, crap.
Speaker 5But that's where you're drafting him. And the thing is, is I don't think that there's a world where he finishes at 12. You know, he's going to finish like 18, and, you know, it didn't happen. You think? Eight touchdowns, or he's going to finish at, you know, eight or better. The question I have is, like, if you're at that point in the draft and you're not drafting your first running back, would you rather, you know, pair your first running back with Derrick Henry or like Jeremiah Love, the young, the complete opposites?
Speaker 3I'd rather pair your first running back with Henry every time.
Speaker 4Yeah.
Speaker 3I just feel like it's so solid.
Speaker 4And the, like, Henry has historically, as the temperatures drop, he does transform into the Yeti as it gets cold.
Speaker 3And that's science. That's not like a bit.
Speaker 4No, no. This is like. The bit is, is it snowing in Vermont? Right. Because that's like Groundhog Day.
Speaker 3I don't know. People probably don't notice. We sometimes we goof around.
Speaker 7This is science.
Speaker 4But I'm saying, like, so I know that at, you know, the halfway point or whatever of the year, Derrick Henry will, you know, transformation three and then he'll just start dominating again but the first six matchups for the ball ravens baby uh favorite favorite favorite favorite favorite favorite it's not just favorite
Speaker 5favorite favorite but these aren't great defenses colts saints cowboys titans falcons oh my yeah
Speaker 3it should be fine all right we'll take a break and we'll continue the countdown before we continue the countdown it dude you go when we say this is science yes we want to read this to you yards per attempt for derrick henry september 4.31 october i there's a little crisp in the air 4.78 oh november now it's getting chilly it's a little put on a windbreaker put on a jacket um december 5.26 january 6.09 the longer that's not the longest time for the windbreaker put on a jacket um december 5.26 january 6.09 the longer that's not the longer that's not the longest time for the windbreaker put on a jacket um december 5.26 not how age works brother yeah that's how it's how that's how a freak of nature works how
Speaker 4tackling a car works i mean that's it's just i'd rather if i have to tackle a car i'd rather not
Speaker 3be free right give me a car in september it's like the season is a hill and he picks up speed that's how it seems so that's that's the data he does get better over time the team also just starts riding him when the weather gets bad it always feels like to start the year they're like
Speaker 5we're gonna try to open this up and then by the end of the year they're like we should just keep
Speaker 3giving the ball to henry jacoby lane you know he's probably gonna take over the entire league only player i got on that dynasty team of mine number eight ashton jenty comes in at number eight just 22 years old i got him at seven jason at seven mike at 11 he is the rb6 by adp i can't believe i'm below adp on ashton jenty adp is a you got to get a great performance from jenty for that first round draft capital we know the workload's going to be there we know the upgrade in play calling is there with clint kubiak we know they added tyler lindenbaum the aforementioned all pro center from baltimore that is there to help solidify an offensive line you certainly i think have um a lot of reasons to like like what you've seen from jenty so far efficiency wise they weren't good numbers as a rookie but he had so much volume and that those things are not necessarily sticky i i think the upside of jenty is is pretty high i mean i i don't think that jenty i think he could finish as the rb1 i mean i think that's possible for ashen jenty with the targets his target totals we all have them above you know 65 targets on the year that fits the threshold we all have them about or above double digit touchdowns that fits the threshold and we all have the opportunities pretty high i i just yeah so the the doesn't mean that he i think he'll be number one and just certain guys can do it certain guys can't yeah the negative the biggest
Speaker 5negative is that he's on a poor team that does not project to score a ton of points and so that's you know are you going to get the double digit touchdowns that one that 94 of these top 10 backs get it's a hard environment to see it happening now as a reminder he had 10 touchdowns last year five receiving five rushing he is a freak of nature talent wise i do think that this offense will be significantly better the combination of the of clint kubiak and the offensive line upgrades and the health of brock bowers and kirk cousins coming in to start as far as like dumping off the ball i mean you saw when bijan was there with kirk cousins he was thriving in the passing game to me i think b i i'm i'm very in on ashen genti unfortunately seems like everybody is and so that's where the adp is running back six that's kind of i mean i've got him as my running back seven so i think you're you're drafting him where he kind of belongs i don't necessarily think it's an easy path for him to finish top three
Speaker 3he's talented 73 targets last year over 50 receptions yeah i mean he's he's certainly
Speaker 5talented enough i you know i agree with you he could be they want to throw the ball to who else
Speaker 3but i mean so mike has him a little bit lower i think mike has brought up with whether it's a chan whether it's genti like you don't want a running back on a losing team but you know certain ones
Speaker 5can thrive those two players to me are the like you you i i went and i compared those two guys next to each other and my interpretation was that i think that the raiders offense will be improved versus last year and the dolphins offense will be worse than it was last year and then when i look at the that's bad yeah yeah and then when they were really bad yeah the talent of both guys both outrageously talented i think ashen genti is the better more talented running
Speaker 3back now that's where yeah it's funny i haven't ranked the same i probably disagree on those two points i think a chance the better back better receiver and i think the dolphins will be you know a pretty okay offense relative to las vegas but we both know that genti is going to get a workload and it's hard to get
Speaker 4guaranteed 300 plus opportunities it is the you have the issue too of fernando mendoza is just waiting to take over like could he be better than kirk cousins yeah that that is a variable but just historically it's hard to make a transition to being a professional quarterback they don't come in and put up a a whole bunch of stats especially you know when it comes to touchdowns so there's a chance that halfway through the year the offense gets worse as they're trying to acclimate mendoza and look uh look forward to 2027 the opening schedule cupcake miami that's fantastic but then it's the chargers saints okay but chiefs at patriots at home against buffalo like that this is an absolute this is this is a horrifically bad opening schedule for the raiders and i guess jay my my question for you is because i'm ashton gentry is a great player but historically you one of your philosophies is you want to know for sure your first rounder is gonna work yeah it's safe and it's exactly is safe because everyone in the first round has massive upside they wouldn't be in the first round if they didn't but ashton gentry feels very unsafe to me compared to the the other guys there
Speaker 5i i would agree that he is a risker pick at that point where i've taken ashton gentry in drafts is oftentimes at the beginning of the second round and so then it's totally fine yeah so you don't think he's safe i do not i don't i
Speaker 4don't think the environment is safe at all you're a big kubiak fan though right i am yeah i like what
Speaker 3they did with the line i think i think he's a safe pick it's you have to decide between a bunch of
Speaker 4guys in this range that and that's the issue for me is but i mean i don't think hampton feels safe
Speaker 3Hampton feels exciting
Speaker 4I feel safer in the environment of the chargers being a top 10 scoring offense yeah yeah like versus the the raiders feel like they
Speaker 5will probably be a bottom 10 it's funny because it's like we chase brown feel safer yes he does to me but i i guess what you're doing here when you draft genti is you're you're taking your percentage chance at the running back one overall that that's what you're signing up for you're you're getting a guy who can i don't think chase brown would be the running back one overall genti has that kind of built-in talent where it was the rb12 last year and i don't know if i saw
Speaker 3a worst a worst situation for a running back yeah in the league i mean the worst team in the league
Speaker 5the worst quarterback in the league the worst coordinators in the league the worst the worst
Speaker 3offensive line coaches in the league last year all of it was terrible i just think the volume will outpace it but it's that's why the debate is fun now you're back okay um is this guy safe number seven don't care it's can bone walker it's not it's safe so funny because he's you know i think he's i think he's
Speaker 4very safe yes i i think he is he's very safe but i think his volume is way safer than people are
Speaker 3really i thought you're gonna say then genti i was like that's crazy no no no no but i'm saying like
Speaker 4i think he's going to be an incredibly high volume player you could do you can go to the health which i mean the in terms of games played he's really only had one year that was a major bummer his rookie and sophomore year he played 15 games if a running back it misses two games that's considered totally normal 11 in 2024 okay that's an injury problem and then he plays the whole year last year obviously his you know it felt like the opportunities were being throttled with zach charbonnet coming in but they gave him the cash i have they immediately concerns about kenneth walker they immediately went to go get him and all reports coming out of training camp for for what this team the identity of this team how much they're going to lean on on ken walker and in the receiving game as well i've like walker at 209 is is theft i mean andy mahomes back great offensive line
Speaker 3no threat at the in the red zone no threat in the passing game maybe brashard smith takes some opportunities whatever the identity of the team is built around kenneth walker now if he can
Speaker 4just you know when andy reed has a healthy he's going to be a monster when andy reed has a stud at the running back position their work course yeah like that's what he does he he hasn't had
Speaker 5a stud for years they're they're going to give him absolutely everything and this is a very safe he is so here's my view of walker absolute monster a i agree with you mike steal of a draft at the back of the second the back of the second for a guy who's going to get all the work for a team that's going to win a ton of games who is very talented with a great offensive mind line everything he is top 10 offensive line he is every single check mark perfect across the board and i'm just waiting to see how it doesn't work that's how it feels because somehow some way every year whether it's in people are agreeing he played the entire season last year for the super bowl champs he's the running back 22 it's somehow some way i feel like he's just built to disappoint
Speaker 2but how i i don't know how i don't know how it's gonna happen i think it's just gonna be fine i
Speaker 3think it'll be something that we look back at the beginning of ken walker's career with all those question marks and i've gotten to the point where i'm like i can't find the pathway where it doesn't work out other than injury which is everybody's pathway to not work out so he's gonna be all awesome agreed number six all right this guy ends up ahead of him because of me i think um yes this is this is one of the flag plants that my numbers bore out mike what are you doing over there i just
Speaker 4i hate you hit your ranking i i hate everything about this situation it's devon achan because
Speaker 3achan is awesome devon achan i have him at four i got him as my running back for you guys at 10 and nine being drafted at eight obviously um i i can't escape the talent and the volume that i think we're gonna see i like malik willis i think the offense will get some stuff done there was a really funny clip i think two days ago with his head coach yeah saying he's gonna give him 40 to 45 opportunities a game that he will literally
Speaker 5not let him tap his head to come off the field that he will carry him back to the sideline after 40 carries a game like i mean you can't you can't dream as a fantasy football manager for any coach to say anything better because there was no sarcasm not joke i mean obviously it was hyperbolic it was hyperbolic but he's literally telling us the truth which is he gets everything
Speaker 3he's the center of the offense yeah this is a situation where i'm just everybody has to pick their players that they're in on and you can always create storylines of why you believe or don't believe this is one where i i believe the fantasy community is making a horrible mistake in doubting the production of devon achan by carving out a bunch of reasons why it might not work for miami 100 of his games last year on a horrible team he was above 10 and a half fantasy points that is the best most consistent running back that you had in football the identity of this team the talent of this player is just one where i'm like i think we're going to screw up over analyzing what can go wrong and not recognizing how many opportunities this player is going to have over the course of
Speaker 5the year yeah i i have him lower in my and he can score at any minute
Speaker 3like yeah i mean he is a gibbs level he's a gibbs level talent to me yeah he's he's awesome i would
Speaker 5love to have a chan on my roster i where i i still like where i have him ranked at 10 um which is obviously well behind you i won't end up with a lot of him simply because i think when i'm push comes to shove and i'm deciding between these running backs we're talking about all of these guys the genti or hn the walker h and the chase brown or hn like i'm gonna end up with those other guys over hn and i could be making that terrible mistake like a lot of people are making that you're predicting andy my rationale for that is you know the last two years no one has thrown to the ball the the ball to the running back more than to a you lose to a you then replace him with a quarterback who can scramble and have mobility they're still going to throw the ball a lot to hn but i would expect he gets fewer targets in the passing game than he had with mcdaniel and tua that so if that comes down a little bit and like i just said a minute ago i think their offense is worse this year than it was last year losing waddle um obviously you've got mcdaniel just noise man just noise just noise sure but
Speaker 3in my estimation like remember when cam newton couldn't throw to running backs right no that's
Speaker 5what i said he's going to get a lot of targets but do you are you saying you think malik willis will without mike mcdaniel malik willis will target hn more this year i think i think he'll
Speaker 3get the same amount of targets i mean we weren't talking about 105 eckler targets we're talking about 85 targets yeah i think he'll get 85 targets you don't you said they don't have waddle where does where did
Speaker 5where do targets go vacated targets from wide receivers often go to running back so i i'm just
Speaker 3saying like to me it's noise i'm not saying what you're saying is invalid at all i'm saying to me these are things that i think will get me a discount on him for you it won't be a discount because you won't have him uh it's just a flag plant for me on the town where is where is he
Speaker 5going adp wise is he ahead of early early second eight okay so just as far as running backs
Speaker 4go it's it's right for me the hard bar is it's right next to chase brown hampton chase brown
Speaker 5and i prefer chase brown yeah hampton chase brown walker going behind him that'll be tough i mean yeah obviously incredible talent where did he finish last year six okay um with his best points
Speaker 4per game of his career he had 12 touchdowns yeah yeah i mean the nice thing about him exactly like
Speaker 3gibbs where on any play even if they're upper i mean he had so many touchdowns he had so many late fourth quarter games put out of reach goes and scores from 65 yards i to me this he got paid the other thing i mean nobody talks about this the commitment to him he's their face of the
Speaker 4franchise and then you go listen to the coach talk i hate that i can't argue yeah like anything you're saying like yeah no those are all on the those are all true things on the plus and the
Speaker 5negative side everything is true uh the the one maybe tiebreaker when i'm looking at this is if he does get like 30 touches a game which would be outrageous he's 191 pounds i mean he's probably heavier now 30 but my my point is like there's also he's under he's he's undersized to be a you know a carry an entire team for two seasons in a row so all right moving on number five
Speaker 3james cook just keeps getting better 12.4 fantasy points per game up to 15 up to 16.8 last year i mean and he feels like he gets no respect even even in my heart i think we got there i think we got there he's there for me mentally he's elite tier uh we are number five number five number four he's gonna let it wash over you i mean he's being i mean being drafted as the rb5 off the board i think we got there jay i think i think it came with last year's performance leading the
Speaker 5league in rushing i guess where i'm at is i never ever ever take james cook because he's going where the last of the elite wide receivers are so if i if i'm deciding between um like all these running backs that are at the next turn in the second round these these walker h and hampton like i love all those guys and i don't really love the wide receivers there yeah so i just can't take james cook there because i'm always taking jsn or almond raw or or or cd and then coming around and grabbing these other running backs but james cook's awesome yeah that makes
Speaker 3sense i mean jefferson or james cook james cook okay yeah the cd regression has not existed for james cook his opportunities ballooned from 245 to 349 last year right there's rumors that they're
Speaker 5going to pass more i could see them getting cook more involved in the passing game he's got room
Speaker 4to go up there if they run more it's james cook if they pass more he'll have more he's so good
Speaker 5yes and he's on the bills like he's on one of the best offenses on the bill i mean it's just like you know we're talking about h and and the dolphins you're gonna have so many touchdown opportunities yeah it's just tough because i've like never drafted yeah i mean his quarterback will score 12 times
Speaker 3on the ground and he'll still be fine that's the wild thing yeah the the uh those odds that i was
Speaker 5giving earlier in the top five both james cook and uh josh allen were were in the top five and
Speaker 3there's 32 teams and he's on the bills the bills all right we'll take a break we'll come back with our top four
Speaker 7well
Speaker 3I'll uh you know general overview of the top four they're very good at football number four jonathan taylor comes in at number four i've got him i guess the lowest at six jason at four mike at five he's being drafted at four um he's really good oh jason stank face yeah
Speaker 5i i i'm i don't know man i'm getting a little bit sour on the colts like i i they're it's so weird because i like the opportunity that josh town says i've talked about him a lot in the past and i've a lot as one of the latest wide receivers that i i really like i love tyler warren dog i just don't know if the vibes are great right now for the colts um their schedule is very very difficult they open baltimore kansas city houston uh pittsburgh in week five it's like it's gonna be tough sledding you know so i don't know i'm i i find myself not excited for jonathan taylor but if you remember and i've talked about this like last year before daniel jones went down he was the runaway running back one he was he was which he's done before by the way in 2021 he was points ahead of christian mccaffrey uh until daniel jones went down and he's a freak of nature you
Speaker 3could point out the he's coming off a tremendous workload so back when he was the running back one in 2021 he had 383 opportunities followed it up with two injury plagued seasons he got back up to that number last year 378 opportunities that can be tough on a running back to stay healthy something you can pay attention to and that is you know he's missed games one two three four years of his career maybe that's in the back of your mind i think daniel jones playing at an mvp level than winning eight out of nine games certainly helped last year he's been a great running back when his team has been good he's slowed down a little bit when obviously he hasn't had the quarterback player
Speaker 5the offense but yeah i mean no complaints scored 20 fantasy points per game last year on the season that's including the the second half of you know grandpa rivers throwing him the ball also the vacated targets on this team we you know just like we talked about with hn losing waddle the targets often go to the running back and he can catch he can catch it where's i mean is this similar to uh james cook where he's pretty close i have james cook ahead of jonathan taylor now yeah i'm just saying draft like in in the draft and are you able to grab um you know one of those jsn almond raw
Speaker 3he's at 106 oh yeah you're in the same category he's at 106 versus 109 for cook yeah i think
Speaker 5i think i'd rather have no jason i think i'd rather have not cd but if i could grab jsn or almond raw puka oh definitely i mean puka and jamar chase ahead but those four wide receivers i think i would take over over jonathan taylor i mean we we i feel like we're not talking about puka could get a suspension too yeah that's been uh you know he who mike shall not name was reporting yeah uh was reporting that uh both puka and jacobs that there are still discussions going on in the nfl as to potential suspensions number three christian mcafree comes
Speaker 3in at number three we all have him at number three he's being drafted as number three um
Speaker 4probably be number one right it's there's really not much of a discussion to have here it's if mcafree stays healthy he's a probably the number one running back or at the he's top three guys at the floor of a healthy christian mcafree he's the running back three and a but a difference maker at finishing at running back three it just means two other guys happen to have like crazy
Speaker 3he's coming off a season with 440 opportunities if you remember the last time this has happened i think demarco murray in 2014 had 449 that's a lot i think the last time christian mcafree had
Speaker 4that many including oh no he's actually never had that many you well in a season i'm just saying his
Speaker 52019 season he had uh 428 in season um man and then he was of course missed the next year with
Speaker 3it's there's no one you feel more nervous about injury with still and that's fair but i mean anybody can get hurt other than you told me bijan can't last year which was right and i was right i
Speaker 5mean i will say this the the injury stuff that we talk about with these players and you go well anyone can get injured that's true i don't really care about injury history that much for most guys but what i do care about when it comes to the potential for injury is age sure so like when i look at saquon and christian mcafree coming off of large workloads and they're 30 that's where it's like it's just you know it's it's more it's more difficult to recover quickly
Speaker 4should an injury happen is it more comforting to say three of the past four years he has been number one or number two that's very comforting yeah that's a good way to put it that's nice like those the the two carolina years i mean that's just that he's so fluky stuff he's he's so you know they keep losing their wide receivers christian mcafree last year 129 targets there's there's not a world where he doesn't get 100 plus targets again and it's just somehow remains unstoppable because he's he he caught 102 of them for 925 924 yards that's 9.1 yards per catch like these are high numbers for for a running back it's very effective he's had seven receiving touchdowns and he's had seven receiving touchdowns and he's had seven receiving touchdowns in two of the past three years and the one when he had none is because that was a one of the years he got hurt it's what do you it's time to ask yourself what do you believe will he get hurt
Speaker 3or will he not yeah i mean i think the only reason he's not going to number one is because you have two guys this year yes that are significantly younger that have already proven it and so you get to take the odds right yes you get to take odds with you that's these guys are going to be better starting with number two bijan robinson yeah he's pretty good
Speaker 5before the last thought i had on on mcafree because i'm i'm looking at this strategically for 2026 you're you're in that first round of the draft personally i find that the top those top four wide receivers that i love i'm leaning towards them over james cook and over uh jonathan and i i can't decide when i'm when i'm there and i'm staring at jsn amin raw and and christian mcafree which one is the right pick can you guys just tell me it's probably cmc unfortunately i
Speaker 4cannot i i knew what it was last year but i i don't know this year um yeah i mean the you a
Speaker 3more valuable thing for your team is if you get christian mcafree yes playing at a high level that's the most valuable fair bijan number two gotten better every single year got paid this season oh wait that's the same thing with number one jameer gibbs gotten better every single year got paid this off season both are 24 years old both lost their backups that encroached on
Speaker 5touchdowns for them one's on a really good team yeah i mean that's that's the biggest difference is one is on a team projected to score you know top three in the nfl and one is you know a 500 at best team that is not projected to score as much the path for bijan to outscore jameer
Speaker 4gibbs is it's tua it's tua is the quarterback for the vast majority of the season and then and we continue to see the the highest check down to the running back rate that we continue to see that i think it's that's to me like that's kind of the only way but think about what you just said
Speaker 5with your words and your mouth yeah you just said that the his best his the thing i know is best for
Speaker 4him is tua that's why he said that's why i have moved bijan to two i'm with you guys on gibbs it
Speaker 3says something though to me what you looked up earlier gibbs is the number one highest odds of double digit touchdowns bijan did not crack that list of the top six that says something to me that's a differentiator I think Gibbs has the potential this season to have one of those years, an LT style, CMC style.
Speaker 5I feel like he has the chance to score the most fantasy points ever at the running back position.
Speaker 3I mean, you look at what Dan Campbell's philosophy was as an offense with a team with Montgomery who could catch the football. When he took over as the play caller, Gibbs had the seventh most receptions of any player in the NFL. That's what you need. That's the LT. That's a CMC. You want this guy to be like stand-alone. If he was just a wide receiver with the receiver numbers, he's in the top five at the position. And so that is in the realm of possibilities because the offense, Detroit favored in 14 of 17, potential to score a ton of points. That's the differentiator. Both guys are going to be awesome. Both guys could easily finish number one. It's funny because neither has. I mean, they haven't had that year. It's like when Chase had never finished at one, and we're like we always drafted him at the top because you know it's coming. It's just the offensive system. It's the same reason you said you like Hampton more than Gentee.
Speaker 4This is a year where frequently I don't want the number one pick. Like you'll have kind of a tier of, oh, here's five or maybe even six guys. I want to start my draft with them. So I'd rather start where my second pick is going to be better. The way that ADP and the market looks like it's shaking out this year, I want the number one pick. I want Gibbs because on the way back that turn, I'm going to get two other. The 2-3 turn is great. Yes. I love the players going in that range. So if I could stack it with the guy who has the highest potential of carrying teams into the fantasy playoffs and fantasy championships, I will actually want the number one pick this year.
Speaker 5Yeah. We talked about Gibbs is, you know, as far as the sportsbook odds to have 10 regular season rushing touchdowns, he's number one in the league. And Bijan is number eight in the league. But Jameer Gibbs to, to have double digit touchdowns is minus 370. That means if you want to make a hundred dollars, you have to bet $370. It's that kind of.
Speaker 3Yeah. You don't, you don't need to, that's why you may blow your mind here. Players that had more carries inside the five than Bijan and Gibbs last year. Sean Tucker, Blake Corum, Jay, Ja'Cory Krosky, Merrick, Chris Rodriguez, Ramondre. Both players should have more opportunities in that regard.
Speaker 6Where's my bill drop? There it is.
Speaker 3So it's like you take Gibbs 19 plus fancy points per game, two straight years. Bijan 18 plus two straight years and you give them goal line. And then Gibbs is on a good team. I don't know. These are easy picks. You know, I didn't get a different season. CMC is the number one pick. If these guys are not just entering their prime at 24 years old, I don't think there's any reason why you couldn't, I will say this. If you, if you want to shoot the shot on CMC, I don't think you're, you're doing a wrong thing there. I mean, San Francisco should win games. He did stay healthy all last year. He takes care of himself. His injuries have been freak injuries. You, if you want to do it, do you think that's wrong?
Speaker 4I don't, I don't think it's wrong. You're just the, the level of fire that you need to be there is maybe not worth it. But you know, like the, the argument for McCaffrey. So two of the last three years, cause we're sandwiched with a, uh, he played four games. Four games and did nothing for fantasy, but 22.4 points per game and 21 and a half points per game. Neither Jameer or Bijan in their first three years has surpassed 20 points, uh, per game. So the, the ceiling for McCaffrey might be a little higher, but when you're weighing out the risk of what those other two guys are, I'll take them.
Speaker 5Yeah. Um, I, I, since we've been talking through the top 10 and we've been talking about 10, 10 rushing touchdowns and, and the odds, a couple other interesting tidbits to close out the top 10. Um, I noticed that, uh, so Bijan was eighth. Gentee is 13th, um, highest odds, uh, at the running back position. Who's wait. So who's between Bijan and Gentee? Uh, between Bijan and Gentee is Saquon Barkley, Amarian Hampton, David Montgomery. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're a good team. Ken Walker, the third. And then Gentee. Where's Chase Brown? Chase Brown. Oh, for 10 rushing touchdowns?
Speaker 4Yeah, he's got to be nowhere, nowhere, right?
Speaker 5Uh, Chase Brown is, uh, is a little further down. He is a, Devon Achan is 23rd. Yeah. Um, so Chase Brown is ahead of that, but yeah.
Speaker 3All right. Let's do some mailbag. Mailbag. Oh yeah. Alec in Wisconsin. By the way, if you have a question, go to the site, the fantasy footballers.com. Click that submit a question button or dial our voicemail hotline 302-464-TFFB. Alec in Wisconsin says, Hey, baller, simple question. If I'm a rebuilding team in dynasty, would you trade away Jonathan Brooks off his hype or hold out and hope he takes over and you have a better value? I would be the latter. I would do the, the, the latter. I don't, I don't think the trade value on Jonathan Brooks is as good as it could get.
Speaker 5So let's, let's just say if you could get a 27 late first. Oh, I would do that.
Speaker 4I mean, I do that. Yeah. Okay. I think it's more of a, can you get a second?
Speaker 3I would not do it. I would not do it for a second.
Speaker 5I think you can definitely get a second for Jonathan Brooks right now. So I think we're young. So we're both, we're both, I think all three of us are the same, which is if you can get a first for Jonathan Brooks. Yes. Do it. I would do it. And I don't do it for a second.
Speaker 3Johnny Johnson writing in from Grand Junction. Johnny Johnson and Grand Junction. I don't think that's a real Colorado. That's not a real name. Um, I don't think that's a real name. Um, it is a real name. He used to play running back for the Cardinals when I was, we had a Johnny Johnson.
Speaker 4What was his middle name? Jonathan. Steve. Who does, uh, what has been my last name's Johnson. What should we name our son? John. I don't get it.
Speaker 3It literally says son of John. Uh, what has been your least favorite draft spot to draft from and why not the first
Speaker 5least favorite spot? I think, I think my least favorite spot.
Speaker 3My least favorite spot is around like nine, nine to 12.
Speaker 5Those, those are my least favorite spots. Those, that's where I don't want to be this year.
Speaker 3It hasn't felt great. All right. We're going to wrap it up. We got a mock draft show tomorrow and we're bringing the mock draft mayhem back by popular request. And on Friday, one of our biggest episodes, top 10 tips and tricks. Don't miss it. We'll talk to you then. Goodbye.
Speaker 2Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on Twitter at fantasy football. The FF ballers.
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