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Time to Stack Silver is Now - 'Shorts are Handing You a Gift': Mario Innecco

47m 12s

Time to Stack Silver is Now - 'Shorts are Handing You a Gift': Mario Innecco

In this Commodity Culture interview, the guest discusses the silver market after its recent decline to around $54, arguing that prices could retest or fall below $50 but that such levels would represent an attractive buying opportunity for long-term stackers. He frames silver as heavily undervalued relative to gold and as protection against the debasement of fiat currencies, pointing to the debt burden as the central weakness of the current monetary system. He acknowledges sharp historical drawdowns in silver and advises investors to maintain an even keel amid both froth and despondency. On manipulation, the guest argues that outsized short positions in silver suggest some effort to suppress the price, citing the 1980 Hunt brothers episode and the 2011 crash, though he notes others dismiss this view. He explains that gold and silver trade like leveraged foreign exchange and that problems arise only when physical delivery is demanded. He also expresses optimism about undervalued miners and royalty companies, and explains that a gold revaluation of roughly $137,000 per ounce would be needed to clear U.S. publicly held debt, though he expects smaller revaluations instead. He warns that wars and crises historically precede monetary resets and sees current geopolitical tensions as part of a perfect storm, while dismissing European conscription talk as a desperate distraction.

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Speaker 1This is the Commodity Culture Podcast, where we interview prominent investors, fund managers, analysts, and company CEOs to give you an edge when it comes to investing in the commodity space. Mario and Echo, great to have you on Commodity Culture. Let's kick things off today with the silver market. As we see the metal continuing to fall last week, we're now at around $54 in changes of the time of this recording. Do you think we could see silver prices back to $50 or even below that? And are you viewing these prices as a buying opportunity or are you exercising caution for the potential of further downside ahead?
Speaker 2Yeah, anything's possible, Jesse. And by the way, thank you for having me on. Yeah, anything's possible. We could drop back below $50. But I think it would be a steal for those people who stack silver as an insurance against long-term currency debasement. And yeah, I don't see anything changing in terms of the debasement of the dollar and all the other mini-dollars, if you want to call them, the other fiat currencies. So yeah, I mean, just to put it into perspective, we're only about 8% above the all-time high from 2019. And that was almost 47 years ago already. So it's crazy. At least gold is, yeah, well, it's up like five times since the high in 1980. So silver is heavily undervalued. And I'm holding on to it and trying to add on to it as well. So yeah, it's possible. We could retest that $50 level. And in a sense, that's what kind of happened, has happened in the past with silver. We've seen some really sharp, agonizing drops. Like back in, I think it was 2008, gold made a sharp drop from just around $1,000 to $680. But silver was even worse. It got down to like $9 after having gone to like, well, well, got down, yeah, having gone to $220 prior to 2008. And then in 2020, we saw it go from like around $30 to $11. And then from $11, it just went straight up to $30 very quickly. So yes, it's worrying for stackers and for people, of course, who chased it when it was above $100. And that's why, in my opinion, you need to have an even keel, be it when there's a lot of froth and enthusiasm, or be it when there's a lot of despondency like there is now. But the longer term fundamentals remain the same for me. The major Achilles heel of the current fiat currency architecture, if you want to call it. And that is the debt. And that's not going to change anytime soon, unless there's a default on the debt. But if there is a default on the debt, you want to have something that's nobody else's liability, which is gold and silver. And if there isn't a default, you can bet they're going to keep inflating it. And what do you want when they keep inflating? You want gold and silver. That's the way I see it.
Speaker 1I absolutely agree with you. And it really depends on one's mindset. If you're a short-term trader, if you're looking to bet on the price going up or down, good luck to you. This show isn't for you. And none of my guests on this show are for you, because I get a lot of those type of comments below. I have been buying. I bought silver at 60. I bought silver at 55. I am buying silver again tomorrow. Guys, for me, this is an opportunity. If you look at silver in the way that Mario was describing, removing your wealth from counterparty risk, taking it out of the financial system, holding it in your own hands, if you want to speculate on silver miners, that's something we'll get to as well. That's a different story for the metal itself. I agree with your assessment there. Now I speak to a lot of people, including yourself all the time about the manipulation of gold and silver, particularly the manipulation of the silver markets is what most people are interested in. And many people view that as even more pervasive. I had Ed steer on the show recently, and he was showing short positions by commodity and silver was by far and above the largest short position currently being held by the large eight commercial traders that he tracks. Now I've had some people like Ed steer and yourself come on and talk about manipulation being a longterm endemic issue in the system. I have other people who say it's meaningless. Rick rule literally came on and said, that's ridiculous when, when posed the question about longterm silver manipulation, a Bob Moriarty, the same way a Lobo Tigre isn't kind of unsure about the manipulation, but he says, anyways, it's not something we can really worry about in our, you know, in our investment philosophy. So I kind of leave it out of the picture. What is your response to those who were saying, you know, there's no evidence for any longterm agenda to suppress the silver price?
Speaker 2Well, the fact that the short positions are so much bigger than any other, uh, like commodity, that's a bit of a clue, but I, you know, I, I, uh, I have Peter Carling on quite a bit and he's an experienced trader. He wrote a pocketbook of gold with Jim Sinclair. And he, he seems to think also, it doesn't really matter in the end of the day, prices will go higher. But, uh, I think there is some kind of, um, effort to keep silver down because silver is really important. Uh, it's the Achilles heel, uh, of the bankers, I think, because it's, uh, it's money that is really everyday money. Uh, at least it was until 1960. End of 1964. And I know there's, I was born in 64 and I never really used silver as, as money, but people before me did. And I know they're dying out, but there's still, I think there's still something about silver that, would, uh, worry people. And, and, uh, you look at 2011, uh, or yeah, 2011 when silver went up to 50, uh, there's a lot of talk about JP Morgan unloading it. Like in one day silver crashed. You look at, uh, 1980 when the hunt and the hunt brothers, they didn't just come in 1980 and try to corner the market. The hunt brothers were buying, uh, physical silver all throughout the seventies. Uh, they started back in the early seventies because they couldn't buy gold. And, and they saw that when Nixon closed the gold window, it would, it would be highly inflationary and the hunt, uh, family, they, they earned a lot of dollars through their oil business. So they started, uh, putting their, uh, the fiat currency dollars to work in silver. And, uh, yes, maybe they, they got a little bit greedy in 1980 and they tried to corner the market, but the, uh, regulators, the fed, they stepped in and, basically they, they stopped people from buying silver. Uh, yeah, you could only, yeah, you could only open short positions and silver crashed and they saved, uh, yeah, they saved the, the system. I think the, the, the dollar system. Uh, so yeah, uh, I'm not sure there are, I know Bob Moriarty and Rick rule and other people, they don't seem to see a problem with it. Um, and maybe, maybe that, that is a good, good thing because it gives us more time to accumulate gold and silver. If they didn't control the prices they do. And I think they do in my opinion, um, this system that we're under would have been gone a long time ago. So at least it gives us some time to accumulate physical gold and silver on the cheap. Um, yeah, no one really can prove it, but we, we know that, uh, they manipulate all the other markets. Uh, they have something called the exchange stabilization fund. They've manipulated the oil price. Uh, they manipulate bond yields. Uh, they, they manipulate, uh, they come in when the stock market is really low. And like at the end of the day, uh, the 1987 is a lot of it started, uh, when you saw the crash in October, and Greenspan had just started out as chairman and he intervened, he really flooded the system. Liquidity saved the market. So, uh, I'm not sure why some people don't believe in the manipulation. Um, yes, there is the other side of the coin, of course, that for all these short naked shorts, if you want to call them, uh, there's also naked longs because a lot of, of times, uh, these, uh, funds and CTAs and hedge funds, uh, they buy the gold futures. They're not really buying physical. So, I guess you could argue that as well. Yeah, so, I mean, I've learned just to be patient and, yeah, take it as it is. Unfortunately, there's nothing we can do. Maybe something will happen that will expose the whole scheme, but that would be the end of the current monetary system, which I think would be a good thing.
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Speaker 2Well, I think it has in the past 25 years. And yeah, gold and silver outside the futures market is traded as foreign exchange. I remember well when I started out in the business in Switzerland for a small private bank. We had a dealer who, he put all the orders in. And he was a former FX trader for a big Swiss bank. And we had a, not a Bloomberg, but a Reuters terminal. And he always kept the page for a foreign exchange, which was FX, FX. And he had all the major crosses. And then at the bottom, it had XAU and XAG. And I had no idea what that was. And I asked him what that was. And he said it was gold and silver. So gold and silver, are traded as currencies. And the currency market, the FX market is highly leveraged as well. People who, let's say, buy $2 billion of Euro dollar, for example, they might only have 200 million or 50 million in their account. So they leverage it. So I think that's why a lot of the traders or Rick Rule and other people, they don't see any manipulation because gold and silver, are traded like on a fractional reserve basis. The point about the physical is that unless nobody that is part of this trading, leverage trading, unless nobody demands delivery of physical things should work out okay. And they can move the price around. The problem that arises is when, yeah, the balance is tipped and someone who's long gold says, oh, I want the real physical. And that's when the problem really rears its ugly head in their world. And I think that's probably what happened back at the, well, towards the end of last year, beginning of this year, there must have been a lot of people who wanted the real thing. And that, yeah, that forced all these shorts that are naked to cover it and to get physical because they needed to deliver to these people who wanted the physical, who wore long. So that's how I think it works. And yeah, Peter Carlin said, and he's got a point, you know, that's how markets work a lot of leverage. And it's been working like that for millennia, even like even in the old days, people used to leverage is it right? Is it wrong? I mean, yeah, I personally, yeah, I personally think it's not really ethical, but people do it and it's very risky though. And I think eventually yeah, the physical market will assert itself and it has been asserting itself for the last 50 years. Uh, because gold has gone from $35 to above 4,000 as we speak. And yeah, silver has been a little less, uh, well, it's gone from used to be, I think the official price, a dollar 92, you know, the equivalent of $35. So now it's around 54, but, uh, I think it's got a lot longer, uh, way to go, uh, relative to gold. Uh, it's very undervalued silver and it's the same. Same story. It's probably even worse. The, uh, the, uh, the leverage in silver, I, there's a lot more paper and there's not enough, uh, physical. And there are people out there, like, uh, I'm not going to name names, but, uh, analysts who say there's plenty of silver supply, but, um, I mean, the silver Institute has said that there's been a deficit for the last six years. So where is this supply?
Speaker 1Yeah, great points. And that long-term time horizon zooming out really does put things into perspective. The golden silver mining sector, obviously taking a hit along with the metals themselves. Uh, it's now underwater year to date, the whole sector, basically underperforming the S and P 500 by quite a decent, um, like an underperforming by quite a lot. This is obviously a far cry from what most thought would occur in the aftermath of these all time high prices earlier in the year. Are you also looking at the golden, silver mining sector right now as a potential bargain?
Speaker 2Oh yeah. And I'm involved in it. I'm, uh, on the board of a royalty company. So I believe in the story and actually, uh, the H E Y, uh, has outperformed, uh, Boolean since, uh, I think the bottom in July. So I think there are a lot of, uh, fund managers out there who might not be, uh, let's say, bullish, uh, gold or silver, but think that they need to, uh, diversify a little bit and they're putting money to work, uh, in, into the miners already. And the fact that, uh, the miners have outperformed bullying is quite in, in a way, I think that's quite positive and they're still heavily undervalued. Uh, they've got a lot of, uh, free clap cashflow there. They're minting. Well, they, they are minting money. Uh, unlike a, a lot of other sectors, the, uh, general stock market. Uh, if you strip out the, uh, the tech, uh, semiconductor AI, uh, stocks, it's not really doing that well either. So, yeah, I, I mean, um, it's frustrating. It's like, uh, gold and silver and the miners, they take two or three steps forward. And then, then they take one or one and a half back and it discourages a lot of people. But, uh, I think we're still in the early, uh, early stages of, uh, a massive, uh, yeah, massive, uh, secular bull market that really, uh, I think started, uh, yeah, in the, in the early part of this, uh, decade, 2020.
Speaker 1Well, if we go back in history and look at the 1971 to 80 bull market for gold and silver, both metals actually experienced around a 50% drawdown in the middle of the cycle before exploding upwards to ultimate ultimately reach for gold, $850 starting from the $35 level when it all kicked off. Now we've seen around a 25% drop for gold and even more for, for silver since hitting all time highs earlier in the year. Do you think this time it could play out similarly to the seventies? Maybe not necessarily another 25% drop, but the potential for further downside ahead, but then a recovery, into new all-time highs?
Speaker 2Yeah, it's difficult to say. whether gold and silver have bottomed but the fact that they really haven't made uh well i know silver has made a new low this past week or so compared to the last few months but it's not like a significant new low the previous low had been around 54 70 so um i don't think that constitutes a total collapse and the fact that gold is holding above the i think it was the july low i'm not sure when it was 39 39 40 or 50 yeah i think the bears have had uh their chance to drive gold and silver lower and i know in the 70s that uh gold corrected from like just around 200 in the end of 74 to uh around 102 or three uh in 75 or 76 so afterwards they went up eight times and don't forget that uh in the run-up to the beginning of 75 i i think there was a lot of uh uh front running uh i internationally it was kind of uh i think uh by the root well by the rumor sell the fact and it wasn't a rumor but people knew that gold would become legal in the u.s from january 1st 1975 so i i think people uh that probably drove gold up a little bit and then when the actual uh fact happened they they sold it as um to profit taking and i think this time around there isn't such a scenario gold is legal everywhere really except maybe in north korea which probably doesn't matter now i
Speaker 1was watching a recent interview with one of my heroes admittedly howard marks um and i was pretty pained to hear him when he talked about gold and commodities in general because he said i'm a value investor he was asked the question about gold and he said i'm value investor and as a value investor gold is impossible to evaluate it has zero intrinsic value because it's at this price today and this price tomorrow and there's no real way of determining which way it's going shockingly he said the same about oil he said a barrel of oil could be 35 one day and then 130 the next and nothing changed about the underlying oil itself it's still black liquid in a barrel so how can i evaluate that now this guy wrote a book called mastering the market cycle and nothing is perhaps more cyclical than the commodity space so it kind of blew my mind to hear him say that but in some ways i think it reflects the broader opinion in of the mainstream financial press and mainstream financial institutions making it for a lot of money and for a lot of money and for a lot of money and for a lot of we feel like we could still be pretty early days here when it comes to precious metals and commodities i wonder what your thoughts are on howard's
Speaker 2comments well i don't know much about howard marks i think i've heard the name sounds vaguely familiar to me i'm sorry i don't know about him but uh what it seems to me is that he doesn't understand uh money or monetary history and uh i guess he probably thinks that gold uh is not relevant anymore as a monetary asset even though central banks still hold uh how much they hold like 30 35 37 000 tons of this stuff uh because there there there is a way to evaluate the value of gold and that's working out um the ratio of gold to like things like money supply and uh debt over time and i think that's a very important thing to think about to foreigners and and so on and so forth and uh yeah i guess he doesn't know the history and uh he he's probably been educated in in a way to think that uh fiat currency is the only kind of money there is and he he probably doesn't even know about um 1933 when gold was still money and that or maybe he does or maybe uh i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know um maybe i should interview him and ask him or maybe you should bring him on and ask him why but uh even oil i mean you can work out how much it's worth what it should be worth even though uh yeah like right now it's really difficult to know what oil is really we we hear so many different uh headlines and uh quotes by different people about what's happening in the uh persian golf and uh the hormuz strait but uh i don't think it's uh difficult to evaluate uh gold um yeah i am trying to get howard
Speaker 1marks on the show very very tough to get the guy's got a two billion dollar plus net worth he doesn't i don't think he doesn't have anything to sell but and and then i'm sure he probably checked out my because but my my booking agent actually called him he's like i've got howard mark's number i'm like okay call him and so we're trying to get him on but i'm i'm guessing he's gonna look at the channel and see it's all about gold and silver and be like oh maybe he's gonna ambush well but i just want to have a serious conversation
Speaker 2with him warren buffett he kind of thinks the same and uh but his dad uh howard buffett was like a sound money guy he wrote an essay in 1948 about uh human freedom and gold redeem redeemable money um so wow buffett's dad was a gold bug i did not know that it was too bad yeah check him out yeah howard buffett he was a congressman from nebraska okay interesting
Speaker 1well i want to talk about the potential for a gold revaluation because you recently posted a video on your youtube channel titled gold at 137 question mark the nuclear option for america's debt crisis now we've had a lot of conversations about gold revaluation on this show um i had matthew peipenberg on who said a ten thousand dollar number on gold revaluation and he said gold revaluation is a gold revaluation could perhaps may have some meaningful implications in addressing debt and deficits how did you come up with 137 000 and can you walk us through your thesis for potential gold
Speaker 2revaluation well first of all in the video uh i was actually taught i talked first about four thousand dollar revaluation which would be to around where we are and they'd raise a trillion dollars extra without uh increasing the uh the debt load for the treasury because there would be a a book uh trade between the the federal reserve gold certificates and the treasury's gold and that probably would make sense and then they could do another revaluation two or three years after that like they did in the 70s and then i and then i've and i said as well that that would be probably inflationary as well because you'd have extra cash even though you wouldn't have more debt and then i said uh if you really wanted to pay off the debt held by the public which is uh about 40 and a half trillion right now minus uh four and a half trillion i think that uh the fed has that would be around well five trillion they have i'm not sure but it would be around 36 trillion the debt held by the public so i just took the uh uh gold reserves and i do that because there hasn't been an audit uh since the 50s so they have supposedly the treasury has 261 and a half million troy ounces and i came up to uh if you revalue uh the gold uh you have to revalue to 100 just above 137 000 you'd pay off all the 36 trillion but uh that that would be crazy to do well not crazy but it would destroy the dollar it would be finished uh they probably have to go back on a gold standard uh which they don't want to do so uh i don't think they're going to do that and i i think they're just going to keep trying to drag everything on and on and inflate away uh the debt uh but it's possible if people wake up and realize that this inflation that they keep or you know engineering is when people realize it's a government policy and they and they want anything but the currency then you could have a hyperinflationary crack up boom and we could see uh gold go to like 50 60 70 or 100 but that would be the end of the currency as we know it so yes it's a tricky um it's a tricky uh operation for the treasury and the fed to a gold revaluation because you've got to be very careful because uh people could lose complete faith and confidence in the uh in the dollar if they revalue it too too high so i think uh the best thing for them would be to revalue it to where the market is pretty much and that would of course put a floor on gold and i think gold would go up quite a bit and uh yeah that would be a way to devalue the dollar and uh keep uh keep this uh that bubble going. And they did that in the 70s a couple of times in 72 and 73. And look what happened in the 70s. You had a stagflation, massive inflation. But yeah, 137,000, I guess. I just wanted to catch people's attention. That's why I put that there. But I don't think they're going to do that though. But that's the number that it would take right now, whether that is going up all the time. Right now, I think it's 137,600 and something. And you'd pay off all that debt. And then the Fed, you can just tell them to go stuff it. You guys lose that $5 trillion you have. And I think the French politician on the left, because a week or so ago, people said, oh, he wants to default on the debt. But I heard that he wants to default on the debt that the ECB holds. So yeah, that's different.
Speaker 1uranium to gold and silver stacking, and much more, along with being able to take a live look at my own portfolio, which has handily outperformed the SMP since inception in 2020, find out what I'm buying, what I'm selling, and what I'm holding, as well as being part of a vibrant community of commodity investors and sound money advocates. Go to joincia.com to join up today. The link is in the description. Well, there's not many sound money advocates that we have in public office right now. Obviously, Rand Paul is kind of trying to clumsily carry that torch, but he's walking through Fort Knox and saying all the gold's there. We've got Judy Shelton, interestingly, now joining the Treasury Department. She's talked before about, you know, she seems to be a sound money advocate. She's talked about gold-backed bonds. But yet, shortly after being appointed by Besson, she's on Fox News talking about how rising monetary yields are because of economic strength in the United States. Obviously, you know, once you get into that level of government, when you're taking orders from Scott Besson, I think it's basically over. I think you must be corrupted. If you're incorruptible, you don't get that position in the first place, right?
Speaker 2Well, I've interviewed Judy Shelton a couple of times. Last time was in November. I've read her book, Good as Gold, about the gold-backed bonds. And I think, I think they're worse than, you know, I'm sorry, Judy, they're just like a long-term future on gold because you can only take delivery when the bond matures. I think, personally, it's just, it will be like a gimmick to try to keep the system going. I'm not sure. Yeah, I'm not sure about that. And if you're really a sound money advocate, you don't need to be a sound money advocate. You don't need to be a sound money advocate. You'd be pushing for the abolition of the Federal Reserve. You'd be pushing for the abolition or the repeal of all the legal tender laws that there are. And you'd be pushing to, you know, for people to go back to the Constitution. And the fact that anyone can go to their regional mint, take some gold jewelry or silver jewelry or silver. silverware and have it minted into coins of the united states at a certain weight yes and the mint will take one percent uh senior age for their costs that's how it should be uh and even before 1857 i think a lot of people still use the uh the spanish the spanish mill dollars because they're really popular because there was a shortage of silver in the US. So yeah, you should be able to use any kind of gold and silver from anywhere around the world, as long as you know the different exchange rates. And the exchange rates have nothing to do with like the FX market. It's all got to do with the purity of the coins and the weight of the coins. Did you know that like the pound, you know, the cable rate, sterling versus dollar, it used to be always 487. And that was to do with the fact that one sovereign is a pound and a $20 gold piece, which is about an ounce, right? And the sovereign is just about a quarter of an ounce. And that's how they got that exchange. So the exchange rates we have today, even in the Euro, they're all a derivative of like different weights of coins and gold and silver. So that's, for me, that's the sound money. That's what I'd be doing for sound money. Not like, because I've asked her, I think I asked her about ending the Fed and she seems to think we need a Fed because you need to have a national currency. I don't get it.
Speaker 1Well, I'm also trying to get Judy on the show. So let's see if we can get those questions answered as well here. Now, you also spoke recently about that we're in a perfect storm for a potential monetary reset. And again, returning back to the 70s, we have some interesting similar drivers in place because of course, back then we had the Yom Kippur War in the Middle East. We had the Arab oil embargo that set oil prices soaring and put energy supplies at jeopardy. We've got some similar situations playing out today. Of course, we're now seeing WTI crude above $100, Brent at around 117. How do these confluence of factors lead you to believe that we could be in a perfect storm for a monetary reset?
Speaker 2Yeah, I mean, wars and crises like the one we have now, well, we've got two really, Ukraine, we've got the Middle East. They always lead to some kind of monetary event. You look at World War I, it led to a lot of countries leaving the gold standard because they couldn't fight under the straitjacket of gold. It led to the German and, well, Central Europe, a lot of the currencies collapsed, hyperinflation. It led to massive inflation even in the US after World War I, in the UK. And there was like a depression from 1920 to 21 in the US. Many people don't, well, not remember, but don't know about that. And then the next president, I think he was, I think it was Calvin Coolidge or Harding, one of the two. He just let things work out on their own and things came back. He didn't interfere. And the 70s as well. Yeah. And that was a huge reset, but it took a while. It was like from $35 to $850. You had interest rates go to double digits and they reset everything. And the gold, the Dow gold ratio got down to one in 1980. And in 1933 as well, that was another reset. The Dow gold ratio got down to two. So I think the Dow gold ratio is still a good indicator. Maybe there'll be some other ones. Maybe the gold silver ratio is a good indicator too, if we get back down into the teens. And I think the reset has been happening. It's just, it could accelerate. And what I mean by that, is that the fiat currencies and the dollar especially will depreciate very, very quickly versus gold and hard assets. That will be the culmination of the reset. And yeah, keep an eye on the Dow gold ratio. If it gets near one or zero, well, one, that means we're pretty close, I would say.
Speaker 1And we're continuing to see so-called leadership in the EU and the UK rile up the fear of Russia and warn their populations that it might be time to strap on your boots, go die on the front for your country. Now, to me, this feels like a psyop. We've discussed this before, but I'd love to get your take today, because we've seen more coming out of the UK media about, you know, preparations for being conscripted and what will happen to you if you don't agree and all of these types of articles. It feels like a psyop to me because I can't imagine, you know, just using the UK as an example that the youth today in the UK are willing to go die for their incredibly corrupt leadership. So it feels like this is a distraction. They're trying to get people afraid, you know, ration food, ration water, get prepared for potential war with Russia so that people are living their day-to-day lives with this kind of fear in the back of their subconscious, and they're not necessarily paying attention to all of the evil things that the politicians who rule over them are doing. Do you have that sense or do you think there actually is a risk that we could see conscription and boots on the ground at some point?
Speaker 2Well, first of all, I would say we don't have leadership in Europe. These people are really useless. And the second thing I would say is that this is a symptom of desperation, I think, by the ruling class, because they've thrown everything at trying to get Zelensky and the Ukraine to get regime change in Russia, i.e. beat Russia in a war that is impossible, really, for the Ukraine to beat Russia, in my opinion. We've seen historically how tough even Napoleon and he got to Moscow and he lost. Hitler tried it. He didn't succeed. I mean, so, yeah, I think they're desperate. And also the domestic and the financial situation is really bad. They're blaming it on the Iran war. They're blaming it on Putin. But ultimately, the problem is more longer term. It's this debt problem that we've spoken about, the fiat currency. So I think there was, yeah, well, there was a guy, I forgot his name now, but he said that war is the health of the state. So the more sickly and unraveling the state is, the more they're going to be desperate. And as for the young British people, I think a vast majority of them would not be willing to die for the establishment because that's who they'd be fighting for. A lot of people are not stupid because why are they going to fight for a country that allows illegal migrants to, like, come, you know, come, you know, get through the border? Yeah, if you're not going to protect your own borders, why should you go fight for a country that doesn't protect your borders, you know? So, yeah, I don't think it's going to work. But it's quite a dangerous situation, I think, because they could conjure up some kind of really serious false flag event to try to, yeah, psychologically turn people. Into, like, yeah, going, thinking that there is, like, a real enemy out there. And I think it was Napoleon who said that a war is when your government tells you who your enemy is, and the revolution is when you find out who your real enemy is. So it's a dangerous situation. My hope is that this whole system, financial system, unravels because, and then, yeah, this is just a pipe dream for them. And I'm not sure what will happen, where we will be in terms of what could be the alternative to the current leadership that we have in the UK and the rest of Europe. But there are a lot of, you know, there are important elections coming up in Germany and in France, and even the UK, some people speculating that an early election might be called next year. So we'll have to wait and see. Yeah, I wouldn't hold my breath with these elections. I always think, I always have that philosophy that if voting mattered, it would be illegal. Yeah. Oh, absolutely.
Speaker 1I mean, I agree with you. I guess people just think you have to pick the lesser of two evils. Even in my wacky home country of Canada now, my home province, BC, West Coast, which is traditionally known as the Left Coast, because it has so many far left people who like communism and are super environmental radicals. And they've, they've now voted in a conservative majority for the first time in over 100 years. So I think people are starting to at least wake up to the idea that, hey, maybe we should think about free market principles and not rely on handouts from the government to survive. But I agree with you that there's no political solution, and we need a collapse of the system. Mario, why don't you tell us about the Moneco64 YouTube channel for those who want to dive deeper into your work and anywhere else you want to direct people online if you want to say a few words about chancery royalty as well, feel free.
Speaker 2Yeah, my channel, I started it like 11 years ago next month. It's the home of alternative economics and contrarian views. I try to inform the public about the intricacies of the financial markets and the monetary system. And with, with a slant, well, a big slant to free markets, sound money, small government, like the Austrian School of Economics, which I've been a proponent of for like 25 years. Chancery royalty, it's still a private mid-tier royalty company. It's growing. Quite quickly. And I was contacted by them beginning of the year. I became a member of the board. We've just got one of our big royalties in Brazil, Pilar Goldmine, producing again after almost three years being inactive. And yeah, I think it's an interesting project. It's something new for me, but I'm really excited about it. So yeah. It's a chance to be royalty. And where, where can you, where else can you find me? Well, I post my YouTube videos on, on X as well. I'm fairly active on X and also in LinkedIn. So those are the main platforms there.
Speaker 1Great. Well, I'm going to put all those links in the description below for people who want to check that out. Mario, as always, great conversation. Thank you so much for coming on. You're welcome. Thank you for joining us. On commodity culture, earn up to a 4% annual yield on your physical gold paid in gold ounces through monetary metals. Go to monetary-metals.com slash commodity to find out how to put your gold to work for you. Link is in the show notes below.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Silver is seen as heavily undervalued relative to gold and is viewed by the guest as a long-term insurance asset against fiat currency debasement, with dips toward or below $50 treated as buying opportunities.
  2. The guest argues that large commercial short positions in silver suggest market manipulation, though some commentators, such as Rick Rule and Bob Moriarty, dismiss its long-term significance.
  3. Physical gold and silver are traded on a highly leveraged, fractional-reserve basis, and the system only faces real stress when holders demand physical delivery.
  4. Gold and silver miners are considered deeply undervalued and are in the early stages of a secular bull market, with royalty companies starting to outperform bullion.
  5. A gold revaluation of about $137,000 per ounce would be needed to fully pay off U.S. publicly held debt, though the guest believes a smaller revaluation near the market price is more likely.
  6. The guest argues that wars and crises historically trigger monetary resets, and current geopolitical tensions could accelerate a rapid depreciation of fiat currencies against hard assets.
  7. The Dow-to-gold ratio is cited as a key indicator of a monetary reset, with a reading near one suggesting the reset is close.
  8. Talk of conscription in Europe is characterized as a desperate distraction by failing leadership, with the guest doubting that young people would fight for a corrupt establishment.

Summary:

In this Commodity Culture interview, the guest discusses the silver market after its recent decline to around $54, arguing that prices could retest or fall below $50 but that such levels would represent an attractive buying opportunity for long-term stackers. He frames silver as heavily undervalued relative to gold and as protection against the debasement of fiat currencies, pointing to the debt burden as the central weakness of the current monetary system. He acknowledges sharp historical drawdowns in silver and advises investors to maintain an even keel amid both froth and despondency.

On manipulation, the guest argues that outsized short positions in silver suggest some effort to suppress the price, citing the 1980 Hunt brothers episode and the 2011 crash, though he notes others dismiss this view. He explains that gold and silver trade like leveraged foreign exchange and that problems arise only when physical delivery is demanded. He also expresses optimism about undervalued miners and royalty companies, and explains that a gold revaluation of roughly $137,000 per ounce would be needed to clear U.S. publicly held debt, though he expects smaller revaluations instead. He warns that wars and crises historically precede monetary resets and sees current geopolitical tensions as part of a perfect storm, while dismissing European conscription talk as a desperate distraction.

FAQs

It interviews prominent investors, fund managers, analysts, and company CEOs to give listeners an edge when investing in the commodity space.

Yes, a drop below $50 is possible, but the guest sees it as a steal for those stacking silver as insurance against long-term currency debasement. He views silver as heavily undervalued and is holding and adding to his position.

He notes silver is only about 8% above its 1980 all-time high, while gold has risen roughly five times since then. He also points to long-term fiat currency debasement and mounting debt as enduring fundamentals supporting precious metals.

He believes there is some effort to suppress silver because it is important everyday money and the Achilles heel of the banking system. He acknowledges it cannot be proven but points to historically large commercial short positions and past interventions such as 1980 and 2011.

He disagrees, arguing that authorities have manipulated many markets, including oil, bond yields, and equities. He also notes that if prices were not controlled, the current monetary system would likely have collapsed long ago.

Gold and silver trade like highly leveraged currencies, similar to foreign exchange, which allows prices to be moved around. Problems arise when long holders demand physical delivery, forcing naked shorts to cover and exposing the leverage in the system.

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