Three Vans, a Startled Farmer and an Iranian Plot Against the U.S.

From New York Times, I'm MicableBorrow. This is Italy. Today, the mysterious story of what exactly just happened at an Air Force Base in rural England, why it spooked American military officials into emergency action, and what it may reveal about Iran's ambition to attack the United States much closer to home. My colleague, Pentagon reporter Eric Schmidt tells us what he's learned. It's Wednesday, October 7th. Eric, welcome back to the show. Always a pleasure to have you. Thank you very much. So you have been investigating what's been unfolding in and around an air base in rural England that has somehow gotten our entire national security apparatus on high alert. So where does that story start? Well, the story starts, Michael, in this bucolic village of Fairford, which is in southern England, as you said, it's in the Cotswolds. It's about two-hour drive or so west of London. It's got a 15th century church. It's got cattle and farms around. It's also right next to this decade's old British air base. Shortly after midnight on September 27th, a farmer, a woman comes home after a party and discovers there are three white vans parked in front of her home. And she realizes that there are men running away, masked men running away from these vans. So she does, I guess, as any good British woman would do, she calls the emergency services and says something's going on around here. And within minutes, the police are descending on this woman's home. There are officers there, there are helicopters roaring overhead. There's the bomb squad that's showed up with a robot that's going to go through the vans, looking for explosives and weapons. And they round up and arrest these five guys who end up on the side of the street with a grainy photograph showing their shirts off, standing there, seeming like they're the culprits. I mean, this seems on its face to be a rather big and maybe disproportionate response to a trio of vans in rural England. That's what I was thinking is I was actually on vacation out of the beach when I'm seeing all these, this reporting come in. So I start calling around to some of my military national security sources to see if they've heard anything, if they know what's going on. And what I learn is that this is very serious because this isn't just any air base. The Fairford base is one that American bombers have used for decades and have been using most recently in the Iran War to drop major bombs on targets inside of Iran. And the concern I'm hearing from my sources is that this response could be some form of retaliation by Iran using proxies inside of England to have an attack on American troops and aircraft at a British base and it's like holy cow, you know, because I've been covering this war now for, you know, we're in the eight months and we've seen lots of attacks in the Gulf region itself in the Middle East, but for something to be tied to American military personnel in England, this staunch ally, a couple thousand miles away from Iran, this was quite dramatic. Well, what exactly are your sources telling you is the nature of their fear? What do they know in the background and how does it relate to the men in masks who are found in this van? What are you starting to try to put together here? So they take me back to July when Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which basically controls the security services in that country, threatened to go after bases in England, basically because they're saying that the England is helping participate in the war against Iran. But these threats were very general. They were not specific about time or exactly where in the base they might hit. But what these sources of mine were telling me was that two weeks or so before these vans showed up, American officials, along with some other British counterparts, got new information that was much more specific about the threat to the base itself and who perhaps could be behind it. And suddenly, this created a much greater sense of urgency that an attack might be imminent. Around this same time, British officials in the town had been warning people to be aware of anything that looks suspicious. And so there was this sense that something was going on in this town even before this incident with the vans took place. So there was a general message, if you see something, say something and this woman returning to her farm very much saw something, very much said something. That's right. So that leads us to the 27th, where the police show up, obviously with all these helicopters, the bomb squad, they've lined these guys up and they comb through these vans. But they really don't find anything. It's just just some jugs of gasoline. There's no explosives. There's no weapons or anything. And suddenly everybody's like, well, what was this all about? Kind of like what Iranian plot? That's right. What Iranian plot? A, the police released these five men on bail and basically this, it raised the question, well, was this a big nothing burger? Or is it also suggesting that the evidence that they do have about this plot, not what they got from the vans, but surround the plot is so classified, they can't use it in a simple criminal case. Fascinating. So I go back to my sources and say, well, what happened here? They just let these guys go. And what did your sources say? Well, one of my sources say, well, don't get too hung up on that. This was probably just a diversion. These guys were chumps in the words of one of my officials. They were just basically a distraction for what might have happened somewhere else on the base. That's one theory. Another theory is that they were on their way to link up with Confederates who did have weapons, who did have explosives and were intercepted before that could happen. And as if this whole situation isn't mysterious enough, we get new information at the end of last week that one of the five men from the vans who was arrested actually called the police before the police arrived. Wait, he called the police on himself? Apparently. And again, this is something we're still trying to sort out. Was this somebody who was deliberately calling the cops to get everybody pulled over in one direction so that the other plotters might, you know, attack the base from another? Or was this a guy who thought he, you know, was just out for some kind of criminal job or something like that? Maybe he was going to steal gas and realize he's, he got in way over his head and he wants out. And he calls to say help. Huh. But one possibility that it sounds like you contemplate is perhaps this guy is part of a group hired by Iranians. I know I'm in the realm of speculation. And at some point, he realizes he's part of something that he doesn't want to be a part of. And he's like, get me the hack out of here. I'm calling basically the British equivalent 911 to shut this down. That's right. And then we're really left with like, well, wait a minute, if this was such a serious plot, why are the plotters calling in ahead of time and giving up? It doesn't make sense. But then the plot kind of thickens. There was a sixth man who was arrested and he was a British Iranian citizen. So now, just as we thought, well, maybe this wasn't something despite what my sources continued to tell me was quite serious. Now here's another instance where at least the police are saying, you know, there's cause enough to arrest this person. He too was released on bail, however. And so we have suspects piling up, but there's no clear understanding of kind of where this is going. But then late last week, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham says that there are strong indications that Iran played a part. But the question is a part of what? He still don't know, you know, what is this? Because he's not explaining what's going on. The police aren't explaining. And my sources are being very cagey. They're saying, this is still live. They're still danger out there. Uh-huh. So what you have on your hands at this point is a genuinely confounding and yet urgent mystery surrounding Iran and a British base that has some of America's most expensive, and high-powered military planes. That's right. And my sources are still telling me, don't give up on this. Even though these guys look like mobs on the ground and you can't make sense of what's happening here, there's something quite sinister behind all this. And you got to stay on it because the authorities are on it as well. And then on Sunday, the United States military does something so unusual, so extraordinary. and underscores how serious they consider This threat's still to be. We'll be right back. So Eric, explain what the US does that conveys just how frightened it is about the situation and why you come to understand they do it. So the US has about a dozen of these B1 bombers at the Fairford air base. And these are bombers that have been used in the war against Iran. And they haven't been used on emissions lately, but they've been flying on training missions. And during the whole course of this previous week, when all these arrests are being made and everything's going on, the bombers are still flying. But suddenly on Sunday, breaking news from England, the urgent withdrawal of American B1 bombers. They're moving out. This is a highly unusual move to redeploy these kind of military assets. Urgent. They're moving all these bombers back to the United States as fast as they possibly can. Moving a dozen B1 bombers further away from an ongoing conflict is no small decision. So something must have made them jittery. And I'm asking myself, why? What's happened? And they said we've gotten new intelligence that shows that threat that we've been worried about all along has become even more acute. And we are very concerned that the plot could happen at any time. The attack on the base could happen anytime. And we have to get these giant aircraft out of here as soon as possible. But just to underscore how rushed this is and how abrupt this departure is, one of my sources tells me that they don't even have the aerial refueling planes ready for some of these bombers, even as they're starting to take off. It's just like, get them out of Fairford for now and we'll figure out how to fuel them to get back out of the Atlantic Ocean and back to the United States. We'll figure that out later. They don't even have a plan to make sure they have enough fuel to get back to the US. That's right. I mean, they're kind of making up on the fly. The United States Air Force just doesn't work like this unless it's an absolute crisis or they fear it could be a crisis. And again, this is not the Middle East where you've got Iran raining missiles and drones down on your base. This is in England more than 2,000 miles away from Iran. And yet the commanders felt strongly enough and obviously Defense Secretary Pete Hankseth will ultimately approve this felt strongly enough that it's better, I don't know, abundance of caution to get the planes out now than take the chance that they could be struck by some kind of Iranian operative. Well, talk about, Eric, what you learn in the aftermath of that original tip that these bombers were going to be evacuated about what specifically makes the US military so, so worried, so freaked out that it races to yank these planes back to the US. So the specific intelligence they got very sensitive intelligence that made them so concerned was that somehow these Iranian proxies, whoever they may be, we're going to get their hands on armed drones, launch them at the base and perhaps destroy or damage the aircraft and possibly kill American personnel that are at this base itself. And this, my sources tell me, could be loosely modeled on a plot that Ukraine carried out last year against Russia where they were able to smuggle drones in under the guys of some trucks and then launch them deep inside of Russia, destroyed over a dozen of these strategic bombers inside of Russia was a huge prop again to win for the Ukrainians and a real blow to Moscow. So if somehow these Iranian back proxies could get their hands on drones and we know how easy it is to get drones these days arm them with some kind of munitions or explosives and perhaps launch them just where even this van was just a quarter mile away from the fence line at the base, this could cause tremendous damage and would also be a huge win for the Iranians. Well, I'm glad you mentioned the van again Eric because that's my natural question does that theoretical threat that somehow Iranian proxies or operatives could get their hands on drones and deploy them inside the United Kingdom at these US planes does that in any way connect back according to your sources to these men in those vans. Well, not specifically those vans, Michael, but it could be other vans that we haven't seen that you know that's the concern again remember if this was a diversion perhaps there were other vans at a different part of the base that were loaded with drones, I mean that didn't happen the other night, but it could that's the fear that prompted the Air Force to do what they did well all of this suggests that the intelligence folks you're talking to have a pretty high estimation of these Iranian proxies and what they're capable of. Because I have been talking to you about Iran for years now and we've never reached the point where Iran was anywhere near deploying drones in Europe of all places. That's right, but we've seen from the very beginning of the Iran war basically they understood that when Israel and the United States launched the attack on Iran that the Iranians were not going to be able to go toe to toe military to military with them. So what they did was a number of things that was the military says use asymmetric advantage they attacked shipping and the straight of horror moves right for economic pain and did inflict tremendous economic pain exactly and then they attacked civilian infrastructure and oil facilities in neighboring Gulf countries causing more economic turmoil and political disturbance there. They struck American military bases destroying hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars worth of bases throughout the Gulf and then they most recently attacked a basin Jordan killing three service members there. So they have been able to use what they have left in their arsenal be a drones or missiles to inflict pain not only in the United States but in the international economic community. Well according to my sources this is just an extension of that war except now they're taking it to a different level they're basically moving their drones or the drone technology they can get their hands on to a base that's very much participating in the war. And so when we see this kind of a threat materialize the American officials and those working with them in Britain took this quite seriously. Right took it seriously as a potentially entirely new and potentially devastating chapter in Iran's so far quite successful use of asymmetrical attacks where they take kind of what little they have and put it to rather impactful use. That's right because Iran among other things is very aware of the political environment here in the United States the Iran war is deeply unpopular the Republicans are not doing well so far in the midterm election campaigns. And for the Iranians if they could inflict one more powerful blow that is inflict damage on an American aircraft American personnel in England that would not only deal a huge blow to the United States and perhaps to President Trump. But it would also be a real coup for Tehran. And so far of course that has not happened but I think it's fair to say that the Iranians have already done something pretty significant here they have forced the US to pull a dozen of their most sophisticated bombers out of the UK. And rapidly return them home to the US which in and of itself does seem like a symbolic blow absolutely they have achieved one of their major objectives. Now the Pentagon will tell you they can still launch those planes from bases in America but it's a much more difficult mission a much lengthier mission all the way back to Iran than it is striking targets from England. I'm curious Erica's a final question what the British people in the British government make of all of this does it make them in any way question hosting US military bombers that are involved in this war. I mean Britain is not technically a coke and batten in this conflict British troops are not involved British planes are not involved in attacking Iran but Iran is saying that's how we now think of you. The people in the community around the space are no doubt pretty spooked by all this I'm sure elected officials can't be thrilled about it all. What is your understanding of the viewpoint there. I think there's still so many questions swirling around this spot Michael that I think the British people and certainly the people in Fairford are still scratching their heads wondering what exactly has happened or is still yet to come. But to your point countries in the Gulf region that have sponsored the United States hosted American bases for decades are asking this very question now is they kind of dig out from the rubble not only of the bases that have been attacked but some of their cities and some of their energy facilities and say look. Part of the bargain here was you've got to protect us from threats like this and I think they're coming away now looking at the damage that's been inflicted upon them and they're asking wow was this really worth it and they're going to rethink that kind of relationship going forward. Obviously, if this were to happen on British soil, I'm sure that these some British residents would wonder the same question. Is it worth it? Yeah, is it worth it? Even though there's a long storied history of this space going back to it opening just in time for the D-Day invasion in 1944, and that American bombers, B-52s, B-1s and B-2s, have used this over the years, but it's also been a source of controversy early in the Iraq War. In 2003, there were protests at the base over the British governments allowing the Pentagon to use Fairford for bombing missions into Iraq. And you know, were there to be an attack at Fairford? It could lead to a reconsideration by the British government of just how much leeway it gives to allowing the United States to use its bases for America's wars in the Middle East. Well, Eric, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Thank you. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Tuesday, in an abrupt reversal, White House officials said that there were no plans for campaign groups to reimburse the federal government for a series of unusual TV commercials paid for by U.S. taxpayers that praised President Trump and his presidency ahead of the mid-term elections. The ads, which have run on major TV stations, have cost taxpayers more than $10 million could violate federal law and have brought criticism from members of both parties. That criticism prompted Trump to say on Monday that his super PAC would repay the government for the ads. But by Tuesday, it appeared that the president had changed his mind. Today's episode was produced by Alex Stern, Rochelle Bonjo, and Michael Simon Johnson. It was edited by Patricia Willens, contains music by Mary and Lizzano, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly. That's it for the Daily. I'm Michael Bolero. See you tomorrow.