They Don't Want the Smoke

[MUSIC] Hello listeners, welcome to another episode of Geopolitical Cousins. Marco and I are back at it. It is late Monday evening. It's 9.21 PM here now, central time in Louisiana. This will come out tomorrow. At some point probably midday our producer was traveling all of today. So he's going to get on the Sasuna Seawakes up and gets it out. We'll get it out to you. But as we know from the last 24 hours, a lot can happen in a short period of time. I've been on the phone with client's all day. Marco's been on the phone with client's all day. He had to go to one more client call before he gets to call the night. But I ended my night with you and you were close to the end of Marco's night as well. Thank you for all the support. Thank you for all the comments. Thank you for everything. Keep it up. Keep sharing. Email me at [email protected] if you want to get a message to us. Probably a mail bag episode coming this, if not this Friday, the next week. So keep on sending in your questions. I'm saving them all for us to take out next time we do a mail bag. I think that's all. It's crazy out there. Stay safe. Make sure your hedge cheers and see you after. [MUSIC] All right, cousin. It's Monday, March 9th. It's 8.09 p.m. Central time here in the United States of America off the Gulf of America. This will post tomorrow morning at some point. So who knows where oil prices will be, the world will be at who knows. When I went to sleep last night, it looked like oil was going to crest over 120 a barrel. By the time I had dropped my two daughters off at daycare, we were down to under 100. And then by the end of the day, day 85. And last night when I went to sleep, cousin, I was really thinking, you know what, I need to use our next episode as a therapy session. Because I think I got this wrong. I've been laughing about this and how bored I was of it all of this year so far. And I made the same mistake I made with Russia. I was like, oh, I knew that this was stupid. So there was no way that the Trump administration could possibly double down on this. And I was beginning to doubt myself, even though I had kind of, you know, I know we don't talk about our book that much. But I actually was long the things that you should have been long, not for these reasons. Like it was just kind of accidental that I was in the right position for some of these things. And now, of course, like I'm getting to the end of the day. And I'm like, fuck it. I was actually right. Like, I should have been bored by this. It's a short thing. Last thing before I let you sort of take the first word here. Here are a smattering of things that Donald Trump has all said in the past 24 hours. Quote, the war will be a short term excursion. End quote quote, the war will continue until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated. End quote quote war already won in many ways. End quote quote, we haven't won enough. End quote quote, we go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory. End quote quote, I think the war is very complete. Pretty much end quote. End quote, the war is almost over. We are far ahead of the original estimate we made that the war would last four to five weeks. End quote lots of quotes and end quotes. Where do you want to start? Let's just start right there. You know, you know, let's just start right there. Like, you know, if you go into a restaurant and you're sitting there with your spouse, partner, wife, whatever girlfriend, and you're like, I'm going to have the fish. All right, huh, that's cool. No, you know what? I think I'm going to go with three appetizers today. I'm going to just mix it up. You know, no, I'm going to have the fish. No, you know what? Like, fuck it. Let's go do the steak. No, the three appetizers, though, I've seen it. Like, that's a cool thing to do. What am I getting at? What you know is that you don't know much about yourself at that moment, but you know that you don't really know what you're going to eat. It's flexible. And I think that's important to understand in this environment, because it means that the war aims are not clear. They're malleable. That means that victory goals are malleable as well. And then it goes back to my, you know, point. I think you and I have talked about this over the course of the last year and a half, which is the President Trump. It's always a mistake to try to gauge his preferences. I think he's actually very much amenable to being forecasted through his constraints. Because he's the kind of guy walks into a bar and says, I don't know which one of these ladies I'm going home with. And I don't really care. You know, but I'm going home with somebody. And so I think that that's kind of the way this is. You know, George Soros, the famous, you know, investor, and foil of the right and the source of many conspiracy theories. But George Soros made a lot of money in his life betting on geopolitics, actually. He was the original geopolitical trader in many ways. And one of the, you know, concepts that he brought to us is this concept of rect flexibility. This idea that the markets, as they're being influenced by policymakers, basically end up influencing the real economy and the policymakers themselves. There's a reflexivity between the markets and the real world. So most people listening to this, they think that the market is something esoteric, like price of oil. What does that really mean? Even worse, derivatives. Oh my God. But the reality is that eventually a price of oil goes high enough. It becomes a strain on the economy. You get a recession. People lose their jobs. With President Trump, I think he's like reflexivity on steroids in that I think honestly what happened today was he was like, okay, well, that went too far. And I did kind of beat up Iran quite a bit. And I have kind of, you know, accomplished all the goals I set out. So let's, yeah, let me, let me say it's over. And then boom, we had the, we had the day in the green. All prices fall. He's like, hmm, maybe I have a little bit more runway. Let's, like, you know, so I'm not saying that's what happened today. But it almost felt like it, you know, like after he sort of pivoted towards the escalation, the market ends up rallying. Oil prices fall to 85. And he's like, well, maybe I got a couple of more days in before this gets out of hand. Literally two hours later, Aaron Burnett is on CNN saying, we've got word that they're planning maybe some operation to go secure the enriched uranium. Like I've got the shipelle shows get with a yellow cake like running around in my head. So like we're back to ground troops now. I dropped the yellow cake man. I'm like, pray to God, you don't drop the yellow cake. Yeah. Well, either way, I just about what like stepping, stepping above everything, I just want to say everyone who's listening to this and who's like a Trump fan of our Marga fan and it's telling me there is some 5D chess going on. No, there isn't. When the President of the United States of America is that, you know, let's use a generous term. That open material, material is the word. Mercurial. Okay. Yeah. Not tied to a set of war games. You know, when he is that malleable, I mean, that just tells you that, yeah, this is not something that he walked into with a high conviction. If you are hungry and you want steak, you walk into a restaurant, you tell your wife, listen, I don't care what you're ordering. I'm ordering steak. All right, that's what we're going tonight. And President Trump is going through the menu and being like, man, maybe we do this, maybe we do that. We'll see. Yeah, but breaking news here on the podcast here. Here's a latest tweet from our president. Quote, if Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the straight of our moves, they will be hit by the United States of America. 20 times harder than they have been hit thus far. Additionally, we will take out easily destroyed, destroyed targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back as a nation. Again, death, fire and fury will rain upon them. But I hope and pray that it does not happen. This is a gift from the United States of America to China and all of those nations that heavily use the Hormuz straight. Hopefully it is a gesture that will be greatly appreciated. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Cousin, my, literally my first thought here is, oh, we've reached the fire and fury part of negotiating traffic. That's, we got, that was right. That's what he did with North Korea right before. He was having the cheeseburger with Kim. So maybe we're maybe we're in range. Maybe we're good. Maybe we're not good. 20 times harder. I don't know. Well, I mean, me personally, I would, I would find that that comment is healthy, actually, from a geopolitical perspective, from an economic perspective. What would be unhealthy if President Trump said the opposite? Something like we here in the United States of America have all the oil we need. We're not going to secure the straight up Hormuz. Many countries have been riding on our security guarantees. And if they want to deal with Iran and the security of flow of energy, they can deal with it themselves. Now again, if you're a, if you're a maga fan, if you watch YouTube clips to get your information about geopolitics, you may, I mean, careful. Some people are watching YouTube to get information. That's fair. But, but, but, but, but look, I mean, if that is the extent of your sort of dabbling in geopolitics, you might sit there and say, but wait a minute, what's wrong with that version? I mean, like we don't actually import anything from the straight up Hormuz. The United States of America imports negligible oil barrels that if they didn't land in the US, we do nothing. The problem is it's an interconnected commodity. You know, there's no way to prevent oil prices in the US. I mean, I just filled up a car in California and it's, you know, my fault for living here, but it was 570 a gallon. You know, and so despite the fact that the US has healthy domestic you know, natural gas and oil production, energy costs are going to skyrocket here too. We cannot avoid a recession, even though straight Hormuz largely matters for China and the rest. So when I hear his comments, I fully expected this. I think you and I have talked on this podcast that there's this element of this conflict that will go go punitive. I believe we use that term punitive. Like there is a moment when the US will just say, like, look, bro, we're not going to chase your drones and missiles. Like we're just going to like hit your water treatment facilities. I think I said that on this podcast and Israelis or Americans hit the disillination plan. Like days after we mentioned, like this kind of a punitive. And that's what he means. And the part of the reason that I think that as far as the world economy is concerned, you know, we're getting to the end stage of this conflict. And the reason I say that is that for two reasons. First of all, President Trump just basically announced to the world that he is going to take the gloves off. He is going to be punitive. This is what NATO did to Serbia in 1999 after they grew frustrated with Serbian tactics of avoiding direct confrontation with NATO. NATO decided, okay, cool. You're not going to let us fly below beneath 30,000 feet. We're going to start destroying your infrastructure, your rail facilities, your factories, whether they're dual use or not. Like we're just going to bomb you to the Middle Ages. As like General Wesley Clark literally said that, we're going to bomb Serbia into the Middle Ages. So he became a punitive campaign. And you know, Serbs, my countrymen, we would stood two extra months of that because what's up? Let's go. You know, but the truth is that it was like Wesley Clark in Bill Clinton. You know, like it wasn't Donald Trump in Wesley Clark. Well, that statement was kind of harsh, you know, taking Serbia to Middle Ages. He wasn't saying I'm going to reign death, fire, and fury. Yes. And he certainly wasn't. So it's 10. I was playing a game with myself. How long would it take me to say, Crystal meth Rumsfeld? It's not Crystal meth Rumsfeld, which is, which is, I forget who said this on Twitter, who just cried Pete Higgs this way, but really, like you've really done me a huge favor there literally for. Well, yeah, I mean, like the Trump administration is not the Clinton administration. And when Clinton took the gloves off, it was still like relatively gentle. Like this is not going to be gentle. And so that's the first reason. Like President Trump has to say that, by the way, for all of you who are sitting there and being like, well, that's really mean. It's like, yes, but it's better to signal to Iran that the US is about to start committing gross violations of humanitarian law. So they don't know our arguably already have. But I already, but that's actually that, I think that's a good segue because we spent the first 11 minutes talking about Trump and psychoanalyzing him. But really, this comes down to Iran. And it's always the most surprising thing that happened. I mean, I will say the oil spike and then collapse was pretty surprising. But the appointment of Mochitabah Khameini as the supreme leader, I don't know about you. That stopped me in my tracks. I was making fun of people on Twitter, literally 48 hours ago. Be like, there's no way that's not going to happen. Like the whole point of the Islamic revolution was to get rid of the hereditary monarchy. There is no way they're going to do this. And apparently they did it. I mean, Mochitabah also has not been seen. There were reports that he was injured that maybe he had an amputation. As a result of the injury, Trump has already said that this is not going to work. I'm not going to replace Khameini with a Khameini that do it is not long for this world. Maybe this is the Iranian regime. Like I can sort of get into the religious calculus there. It's like, ah, well, because the supreme leader was martyred, it's not actually hereditary monarchy. You're actually just replacing him with his son because he was taken out prematurely. And they're probably going to take out the sun too. So this way we buy a few extra days. And the real supreme leader who's going to emerge is not actually going to be at threat. And in the meantime, we can still have this in your garage. This is your garage. We like like cloth, like, you know, rope. Could that be what I'm definitely starting to get into my rust and coal phase of analysis here. Like I'm really, I'm thinking deep thoughts at night and is there some kind of supernatural thing involved here? And what does it all mean? And it's time just a flat circle because time is a flat circle. Anyway, I was surprised by that. But the other, I mean, the other question is how long can Iran stay in the fight? And I don't feel like I have good info here because some people are saying, ah, the missiles are slowing down. The interceptors are going to be gone. They're going to be dead soon. And then I look at Iranian security analysts and they're like, no, they're still hitting Israel and they're still hitting critical sites in the golf and places like this. Like they're still popping off. Um, well, we have the data. Everything in between, you know, by the way, we'll go for it. Yeah. So, so we have the data. My TV and I are monitoring it for our clients. This was reported by Bloomberg today, by the way. And this is one of the reasons that oil prices did start falling, even before President Trump said what he said, March 9th, which is a Monday, was a surprisingly low volume attack. So missiles have been missiles really have collapsed since day one of this conflict. The drone barrages have been steady at about 160 drones per day across the Gulf. On March 9th, for some reason, even the drone attacks have fallen. And here, I want to just say one thing. I think I've been very wrong on this one particular analogy. I think Kosovo and Serbia in 1999 is a great analogy. This is what's coming for Iran. I don't think they can stand this Jacob. I don't, I don't think they're religious sellets. I think they're corrupt, rich, kleptocrats. Like I don't think that these guys actually believe in anything. Okay. Like so the Treasury Department of the US got best and has sanctioned. Chomene Sun. He apparently has like wired $300 million through crypto. Like, look, listen, it could be Western propaganda. I'm just spewing. Maybe I'm just repeating CIA psychops. But like, come on, like don't tell me these Iranian dudes are like actually committed sellets. They don't seem like it. So yeah, when a B 52 bomber starts flying over your head, and why is it important that Americans are using B 52 bombers? Basically, a piece of junk that's 70 years old. Why is it important? Because it was designed for carpet bombing and it is completely and utterly indefensible. That's like embarrassing. When you cannot protect yourself from a B 52, it means that you are like a dog on its back hoping for a belly rub. And that's what Iran is right now. So that's the first issue I want to say. The punitive stuff is going to get ugly. And these guys, I don't think have a stomach for it because I don't think they actually want to meet the money. The second point is, I think I've been wrong by using a different analogy. So the Serbian punitive analogy is right. What's wrong is the hooties. You know, one of the things I kept repeating on our podcast, Jacob is like, look, man, there's an asymmetry of technology. Iran cannot defend itself, but he can't threaten the straight of her moves. But what if the hootie example is wrong? So I looked at some numbers on this. In 2024, the United States and United Kingdom conducted something like between 70 and 100 air strikes on the hooties in all of 2024, which confirms the sneaking suspicion I had even back in 23, for which I'm sure you disagree with me at the time because you really care about supply chains. But I think that the red sea is completely fucking irrelevant, like completely and utterly irrelevant as a seaway, because it's not a choke point. And the truth is we survived. And you know what? The numbers reflect my point. America and the United Kingdom just simply did not really take any serious effort. So I don't think that I've been right by using the hootie example where they shut down the red sea for three years. I just think normal care, Jacob. I think everyone was like, fuck it. We'll go around Africa. It's fine. And so that's the difference. I do think that there's something different this time around. And I think that that difference is that the United States and Israel are absolutely taking it seriously. They're not using the heavy machinery, the slow 70 year old beehemoths designed to carpet bomb like Soviet cities. You know? And they're now using that against Iran. Man, we never did that against the hooties. God bless them. You know, I kind of always have a soft spot for the hooties. You know, they're out there fighting the good fight. You know, they're just awesome, you know, chewing cotton, just shooting rockets. And I think the US and the UK were just like, yeah, whatever fine. You know, like let the crazy Greek shippers go through the red sea, whatever. Now it's real. And I think that the level of pain that the US has imposed on Iran is being reflected in the data, which suggests that the drone attacks have slowed on. Yeah, I hear you. And I think you're right that the red sea. And by the way, I do believe the US has used. Oh, no, no, no, you're right. The US only used B2 bombers rather than B52s to strike the hooties. So there you go. But no, I think you're right in the sense that the red sea was not existential. And this is a, I mean, kind of a funny point. It was already not existential because it's not a choke point like the straight of our mouses. There isn't 20% of oil coming out through this choke point. Now it is a heavily trafficked trade route. And if oil was 120 or 150 a barrel, having to go all the way around after it. Now the numbers start to add up. But the red sea was shot down when oil was 60 a barrel or even flirting with less than that. So when you're looking at those numbers, it's like, okay, like it's just a two week delay because I got to rearrange my ships and I got to go around Africa. And once you do that, you don't switch. back unless there are some serious financial incentive to do so. So you're right in the sense that it's not a choke point in the same way that the straight-up form is. I don't know that there is another choke that's quite like a straight-up form. - Jacob, even Malaka is not really that bad. - Exactly, no, but this is key. We got to pause here. For all of you who are listening to this and you're not market participant, you're not financial guys, I know some of our listeners are like, bro, the only people listening to this are traders. I'm like, no, my scaffolding friend out in British Columbia, shot out to Ray for the hero who shorted, who no, sorry, who went long vicks in January of 2020 and bested many hedge fund, hedge fund CIOs. That guy's listening to this. So for those of you who are not seeped in a ludicrous amount of geography, I don't think there is, Jacob, another piece of geography like this, the Suez Canal insured that the Gibraltar Straits are not the only way to enter and exit the Mediterranean. And okay, fine, to Dardanelles, Glippoli. - Yes, the Bosporus is kind of, has a similar dynamic, but it's not as important globally. It's really just why the Russians are screwed. - Well, the Russians, you know, Turkey, it's important for that region, but like for the global scale, I mean, there's just like no place on the planet. Okay, fine, yes, we could say that that Bosporus is critical, but other than that, that's wheat from Ukraine, although even that, even that is not critical as we found out that Ukraine or. - We had the proof in practice, like it just went over land to other places and Europe got out eventually. So and yes, there was a large spike in the price of some agricultural commodities, but everything normal, it was one good year basically for those people. - Hey, remember when that idiot came on our show and said the Abraham Accords don't matter? - So here's one way it would matter. You know what'd be cool? You know what'd be super cool? If you could ship all this stuff through a pipeline to Israeli ports via Jordan. - I don't, you, I don't buy the pipeline, aren't you? 'Cause pipelines can be blown up super easily. - Okay, if I can, and sabotage super easily, like, - Fair, so it's a volatile region, volatile region, you put stuff on ships, it's gotta go through straight to promos. And so this is why the only thing that people, like look, you only think market participants right now, investors are watching. So if you're not into markets and you're just listening to us 'cause we're funny, let me tell you the truth, nobody trading anything cares about rockets to Israel. We're like, we just don't. Like Iran and Israel can like shoot rockets at each other for the next like 10 years, cool, whatever. - Investors only care about stuff being put on ships and transiting through this unique piece of geography on the planet. Like to use your dune analogy, 'cause I know you're a huge fan and I am too, like Middle East is not a rocket. Like straight to promos is a rocket. You know, like this is the most important piece of geography on the planet. It really is and we're seeing that today. And so the question now becomes, does Iran have anything left to threaten it? And I think that one of the reasons that the market kind of calmed down today is not just because of President Trump flip-flopping and stuff but it's also those numbers did really kind of dip. It starts, I was operating under the assumption that if the Houthis could do it, well, Iran can do it. But when I actually dug into the numbers, you start seeing like nobody really cared about countering the Houthis. Like it just wasn't that intense of an operation. And the other thing that I think we should also point out is I think the Houthis just have an extremely high paint tolerance. You know, they live in a place where like, if you bomb the Houthis into medieval times, as Wesley Clark said, he would do to my homeland. I think the Houthis would be like, bro, we're there. Like, have you been here? You know, like we're already in medieval times. We're not, I'm not sure that that's the case in Iran, which is a, you know, like economy and trouble, but it's not Yemen. Iran is a sophisticated, complex, modern economy with highly educated people, you know, like, I mean, I don't think that anyone around is looking forward to that. - I think there's two things to say here. The first is, and President Trump is making this mistake. And many American presidents have made this mistake. I mean, I could almost like when Trump was listing off, oh, we destroyed their navy and we destroyed their air force and we've destroyed this and we destroyed that. I mean, I was like, yeah, and go back to the briefings with Westmoreland about Vietnam. And yes, we destroyed this much and we destroyed this many things and they're decimated and we decimated them and we obliterated them and the kill rates are amazing and the ratios are wonderful and like, it's all true and it's all, it doesn't matter. Like, it doesn't actually stop what you're talking about, which is, can you block the straight-up hormones and all you need to block the straight-up hormones is you have to be able to blow up one tanker a month. - Yep. - Every two months, it doesn't, and it doesn't have to be with anti-ship missile. It doesn't have to be with anything fancy. It can be, by the way, I finally watched Cereana what a weird time to watch Cereana. It just has to be the random Pakistani kid on the boat with the bomb driving it straight into the thing. That's all- - You're a stinker, this will be, which I don't even think would work. - And let's say, and by the way, let's say you be 52 it. Let's, I mean, forget Wisconsin, it's gonna be a Houston parking lot. It's gonna be terrible. Okay, then you're the only thing that's gonna be left is people like the Houthis, sand people from Star Wars where like our entire existence is just, - Let me count. - We're gonna take pot shots into the straight and can we get one of them? So like that doesn't actually fix the problem with the straight-up or moods, you know? - Let me count her for just a second. - Please. - Like if the goal is regime change, I think your Vietnam example historically is just correct. Like, you know, Iran will fight, it will fight the American on the beaches, it will fight it in the villages in the streets and so on. I get it. But the issue is that if this is just, look, we wanted to set you back 10 years on your missiles and your nuclear. And now we're done, which is kind of what President Trump was signaling today. Why would you continue to threaten the straight-up or moods? And you might say, well, because you wanna make sure that the Americans never tried this again. Don't flirt with regime change with us. We set a straight-up or moods, which is fair. I just do think that we have to understand that at that point the punitive air campaign, like how long are you gonna hold out? I understand why the Vietnamese held out as long as they did and ultimately defeated the US. Because the goals of Americans at the time were much loftier and much more difficult to achieve. Complete regime change, reunification of Vietnam under the South's leadership. - For the Vietnamese, I mean, the problem with, I mean, there were many problems with Vietnam, but if you wanna put it down into two sentences, it's that the United States thought it was fighting a Cold War battle and Vietnam thought it was fighting a battle of national self-determination. And I think, and this goes back, I mean, I've said this a few times in the podcast. Back in January, I think there was a wedge here if President Trump had pushed the button then that maybe you would have gotten this. - With the protest. - You're right. The liberal, the folks who would have protested are dead. Their skulls have been crushed. And just like what's happened over the last couple of days, you've had the White House make statements about the territorial integrity of Iran, like suffering. Like maybe the Azaris are gonna come in or maybe the Kurds are gonna come in. So you've got that going on in the Iranian mind, which that will take them back to Russia and the British and the great game and everybody taking things from them. So you're rallying around the flag there. You killed the Supreme Leader and his children and his grandchildren in his own home, like you're rallying around the flag there as well. And then the Israelis struck what was a 30 oil depot in Tehran and you've got those black clouds coming in and sulfuric rain and everything else raining down. Even Lindsey Graham, Lindsey fucking Graham came out and criticized the Israelis for going too far today and hitting the oil depots in Iran. Like that's how bad that was. So you're gonna get this rally around the flag thing for Iranians in the short term. But this is something that you, I thought really were ahead of the game on. Once like once President Trump pulls back and once this is over and then the rally around the flag effect goes away and then Iranians have to look at each other and say, well, who is responsible? Who is accountable? Who will pay for this strategy that put us in this position against them? And then you're in total regime in stability land and this goes back to, and then it just has to be one rag tag group of militants who want to hide out in the mountains who have a good view of the straight to knock out, shipping in the straight of war moves. And then there's nobody you call. There's nobody you carpet bomb unless you're gonna deploy special forces that delta force like on the ground to get rid of every single one of them. Like you're kind of still at risk there. So it sort of creates a scenario where six, nine months, maybe like Iran has lips, but there's enough unrest in the region that we're still talking about the straight of war moves being blocked. So. - So yes, that is the nightmare scenario. I agree with you. I guess I'm taking the other side just based on the last 48 hours of data. And that's what I'm trying to say. What has changed since the last time you and I got on a podcast? And I think what's changed to me is number one, clearly Israel and the US are ready to take it to a punitive place, which is very painful for Iran, especially to withstand that six, nine months. And the second is just the pace of the drones has dropped off beneath that 168 day, which is surprising. Now your point is like, well, it doesn't matter. They don't have to hit Dubai and Abu Dhabi and Qatar. They just need to hit a ship. And my point is like, yes, but that has to be connected to the first point, which is the punitive point. you know, once the B 15. start flying above your, like the reason the B2s don't matter. When you use B2s, they're stealth bombers. You use them because you're still afraid of the people you're bombing in some way, shape or form. They're super advanced, but America uses them because it's still respects its opponent. When the US pulls out the B52s, it's like, you know, it's just, they're just like laughing at you now. They're using like the tight end as they're running back. You know, they're just like, huh, you can't stop us at all. Like, and that's, and that's, there's going to get very painful. You know, and that's why President Trump is saying what he's saying. Overall, let me just put it this way. Going back to President Trump and his preferences. I think we, I think you've nailed the risk on the Iran side. I agree with you. I just think after watching everything today, both his real commitment to the security of the straight of her moves, which by the way is tripling down on establishment American foreign policy. My fear was that he was going to go into some server-nizolationist sort of, you know, like magasphere where he says, I don't actually care about oil transiting the straight of her moves. He did not elect to do that. America. I mean, there were reports today that they were talking about limiting energy exports and that the United States is self-sufficient. Like that's in the background. Those talks are there in the background. So it's not a zero on that signal. But I agree with you that the preponderance of the evidence is what you're talking about. But there is some counter-above. Yeah. So, look, all I'm saying is that if that is the case, if he is willing to take it to a punitive place with Iran, I think at least from the American sort of side of this, because it's a game theory with US, Israel, and Iran, and maybe some others, I think that's important that he's reiterated that. And I also think that, you know, that he's a reader and he's going to do something about it. So I do think that President Trump is now starting to think about downside risks to the US economy, to global economy, to markets, to everything else, to his legacy. And so, I mean, at least that side of this equation is moving in the direction which I think is positive for eventual de-escalation. And by the way, it's not because of taco-ing. Trump always chickens out. That's the popular meme. It's not just because of that. Like, again, we talked about this on this podcast. I mean, I do think that objectively President Trump is going to be able to say we set them back by 10 years. Missiles, drone manufacturing, drone capacity. The Navy is sunk. The whole Navy is sunk. Like this is a fact. You know, we go down. Did you see the same part of the press conference where he was like, "I prefer to keep the ships, but you know, the guys said they just like blowing them up is more fun." So they blew them up. I thought, "Maybe we can keep the ship." It's like, "What are we talking about?" Yeah. I mean, you know? Oh, I also did to lighten up just for a second. I, you know, the last podcast was called Heat Check and we were trying to find the right heat check analogy. But I think we actually missed the metaphor just a little bit. It's not that President Trump is throwing up heat checks because I don't think it qualifies as a heat check yet. He has to do a couple more. But I think to still, to steal from Bill Simmons-Parles, he's the American irrational confidence guy. That's really what he is. So now I'm wondering, like, if, like, I mean, this is going to be imperfect. And I'm sorry if he's not going to be listening to this, but I'm sorry if you ever listen to this because I actually really, really like him as a basketball player. But is Donald Trump Russell Westbrook? Kill him. Like, it's just, I'm just going to barrel like 110 miles per hour full speed at everything and I'm getting my stats. I'm stealing my rebounds from you. So I get my triple doubles and I'm done once I get my stats and it's okay, 41 and 41. That's all I need. Like, I don't need anything more than that. He's the arrest. He's 41 and 41. The Sacriotic King is not 41 and 41. So, look. The reason I know. Well, yeah, I'm talking about the Thunder days now with, I don't know if we can do that. I don't, I don't know if we can do that. Jacob, because irrational confidence is a guy who comes off the bench and it is correlated with he checks because they are that guy, right? So like, yeah, but they're not always, they're not always hot. Like, you know, you put the irrational confidence guy in some days. He has it and some days he doesn't have it and you got a full amount really fat. I don't, I don't know if that applies. It's just like, because the US is too powerful to be the irrationally confident guy. Contact. Yes. American, the American military covers up all manner of sins. I agree. That's right. But I just, I just mean the way that he's going in. He like, you know what? Like, you know what? Jacob. Let's do a run. I've decided that. Let's go. I think the OG irrational confident guy was more American than that. That was like, he was just like, he was, he was up there. I think that's a good one, right? Like, I think, no, I don't know who the US is. Maybe like, imbeaded its MVP season. You know, okay, this is going to be a torture analogy. Just, just hear me out. Everyone who is not in the Venn diagram cross-section of basketball fans and geopolitics, you guys can go brew some tea, you know, see what the kids are doing. Maybe like going to a sprint if you're on the treadmill for the next five minutes. But hear me out. Joel and Bede was an MVP and the NBA is an incredible talent. Quite frankly, the only reason the United States of America beats the Serbian team is because Joel and Bede showed up in that four quarter. I mean, let's, well, and Steph Curry, you know, did some fucking three points. But like, Joel and Bede, when you see him taking those midrange jumpers, you're like, bro, just go inside. And this is like, I think what Trump is actually, it's like, for the last 25 years, since 1999, which was an incredible military engagement where the United States of America was like, yeah, we don't want to fight Serbs hand to hand. Like, hell no, we're just going to bomb them from 30,000 feet. And then for some reason, the next 25 years, the United States of America is like, you know what we need to do? We need to engage some ground troops. We need to build Iraqis indoor plumbing. You know, our Marines have to go door to door and ask Iraqi families if they need air conditioning. Like, what the hell? So you have this example in 1999 where the United States, this is how you should play the game of geopolitics. Hey, Joel, your seven foot one, go inside and maybe learn how to do a baby hook. And then for 25 years, the United States of America is that guy that's seven foot one chiseled demigod who's like, no, I'm going to do a fade away from that, from the baseline. Why? Why? Joel and B is not was never a chiseled demigod. Like, there were all those reports about how he was eating like three milkshakes and four big mac today, like going to these innovative. You're extended a analogy towards the fact that we're in a multipolar world and the US is not a chiseled demigod. Nonetheless, the point I'm getting at is that for 25 years, the US played the sport of geopolitics in a wrong way. Why commit yourself to rebuilding nations? Why commit all these resources to nation building? Why not just do what you did in college in 1999 when you beat the crap out of that one country in the middle of nowhere? And President Trump is like, that's to me the basketball analogy, if you will. It's not a key check. It's not your actual confidence. It's like the guy who's going back to his roots and being like, oh, shit. I don't have to think that's too torture. What you're really talking about is Shaquille O'Neal. Yes. It's just brute force and power. I'm not going to learn to shoot free throws. I'm not going to get in shape. I'm just 320 pounds and I move really fast and I'm going to shove it down your, yes. And I'm going to break the backboard and I'm going to embarrass you and we're just. And Iran is Chris Dudley on that famous dunk. Like, this is what it is. Like throwing a basketball at Shaq. Like as Shaqille is like, what? That that basketball is like a drone over straight on her moves. Look, look, yes. Yes. Johnny and hypersonic missile is Chris Dudley lobbing that basketball across the floor. And Shaq is just like, you okay. Like now, now you're going to see the B 52s. Like now we're coming. Death fire in fury. Death fire in fury. Okay. Wait. So the second point though that I wanted to make was that I sort of brought this up with Ed, but I keep on circling it. If I was advising Chinese leadership, Japanese leadership, South Korean leadership, Indian leadership, any one of them, I would be telling them, you know, the straight up or moves it really is geographically unique. There is no other choke point like it. And there's also no compelling reason that your country should be dependent on it. You could have decided 10 to 15 years ago not to be dependent on it. Why don't you start making your plans today? Take the gift that President Trump is offering you. He's offering to open up the straight up or moves. Cool. It will probably be open soon, but you should start making plans to no longer depend on this region anymore because who after this entire episode, if they have a choice and not all countries will have a choice. Like Pakistan, sorry, you're not going to have a choice. You're not wealthy enough like whatever. But if you're Japan, if you're China, if you're even India, you don't have to be dependent on this region. There's enough renewable technology and shale and everything else out there such that you don't need to be importing things from the Persian Gulf. Where am I wrong about that? You think people are just going to get lazy and it was just a one day price spike and we're done because I look at this and if you're one of these countries that is dependent, it should be a major inflection point. But the United States couldn't figure out the Middle East when it was in the Shaqelon Neal moment of its flourishing. What makes you think you're going to deal with the Middle East? This is just how it's going to be for the next 10 or 15. You know, I just think it's difficult. Jacob, I mean, China is a pretty competent country run by relatively competent policymakers. Sure, many bad things, many good things. They are trying to do what you're saying, what you're asking them to do. They're trying to convert. They're sitting pretty right now. They're in the best position of all these countries. in terms of their relationship with the straight-up army. Well, no, maybe because they have significantly expanded their strategic reserve. You're correct about that, but they're extremely vulnerable to straight-up remorse still. Just as much as South Korea, Japan, or Taiwan. So, you know, it kind of keeps building renewables and nuclear at the pace that they currently are. Yes. In five years, probably not. I've done the math. It's more ten years. Ten years, okay. But this is literally what I'm working on right now, because it's actually a critical geopolitical question. Like, when does China invade Taiwan? And the answer is when it doesn't have to depend on my taxes, my dollars, financing the fifth fleet to save them. And I think the answer is five to ten years. Depending what you think they would do in a case of a conflict. So, it gets the math gets a little bit complicated. Like, how much do you want to ration energy? At that point, how much do you want to take from your civilian economy? How much do you want the war with Taiwan in the future to be painful for your citizens? If you want it to be an excursion as President Trump has called this adventure, if you want it to be a special military operation as Putin has called the intervention in Ukraine, then China probably needs ten more years. And so, the reason I say this Jacob is that you're correct, but it's difficult. It is difficult to win oneself off of oil. And I, everybody listening here who's like, well, just go to EVs, electronic vehicles, electric vehicles. It's actually, that's only 30% of global use of oil. And there's many forms of transportation, particularly sea transportation and frite and air frite, which will never ever be weaned off of gasoline unless we discover it's some portable fusion reactors. You know, there's just certain things we will never be able to power without diesel or caracene, in particularly the military stuff. You know, and this was repeat Hexet was like, you know, solar power is for sissies, you know, like, you're not going to power a fighter jet. We're calling him Crystal Net Rumsfeld from now on. I'm not going to be a fighter jet with a battery. You know, it's like, okay, bro, like, yes, that's true. You could, you could power with sustainable aviation fuel grown from soybeans in the American Midwest. God, best, isn't that North Dakota soybean farm? But listen, but listen, Jacob, here's the reason that Pete is wrong. Pete, as if he's my boy and we go raving. Yeah, you're boy. Here is why Secretary of War Hexet is incorrect. While you may not be able to power a fighter jet with a battery, converting the American fleet to EVs would allow the US military to have access to more fuel in case of a conflict. And that's what the Chinese are doing. The Chinese aren't like, you know, girly men as ardled, complained. They are headfirst plunging into the EV transition so that they one day can save the caracene and the diesel for their military if so required. This is not about climate change. I mean, it is about efficiency. It is about exports. They do want to have great products. I'm not saying it's just about national security, but they are doing what you're saying they should do. It's China, right? As you said, it's not Pakistan. It's China. And it's taking a very long time. It's not such an easy transition. I don't think it's because of lack of desire. Sorry, my microphone fell. I think it's just difficult. It's complicated. It takes time. It's also the part of the metaphor where the where the dune metaphor actually goes away. Because when when Frank Herbert wrote dune, there really was only oil and there really was only Middle Eastern oil. Like the United States was beginning to falter in terms of oil production. We didn't have shale and everything else. So like there's a one-to-one relationship between the spice and between oil. And there's no substitute in the dune universe for the spice. My point is in 2026, there is substitutes for the spice. If the dune like books actually don't make sense in 2026 because the Harkinins can be like, oh shit, you're going to blow up a rakis. That's cool. We're going to go with geothermal on our shitty planet over here. Like well, we'll be fine. We'll figure something else out. Like we'll go. I mean, I guess you need spice for vending space, but still like there's no there's no longer a one-to-one relationship where oil is the be-all and all irreplaceable commodity. There's more of it than there's ever been before. You can get more of it by using new technologies or you can embrace other technologies and not be so completely dependent on it. So almost that, I mean, I don't want to say that dune is not perfect. I want to use dune in every single analysis that we do. But like it starts to break down a little bit because it's now a choice. It's no longer the necessity or the reality. You're right. The book was written in 1965. I just checked. That's pre-North Sea oil as well. That's pretty much everything other than the US production. So you're right. I mean, I do think we're in a different situation and I do think that there are certain things, however, that we will always need oil for. And here is where I would say we will never be in a world where we don't need them at least. So currently we use about 90, 95 million barrels a day of total global production. Transportation, the light vehicle and trucks which can be converted is about 30 percent of that. Let's say 40 percent to be generous. Let's say 50 percent to be super generous. Like we managed to find alternatives to oil and we cut the global production to 45 million. The truth is that Middle East barrel of oil is still the cheapest. And they produce about 20, I think, million altogether, maybe 25. No, it's 20. It's about 20 million barrels. So the Middle East will produce half of the world's 50 million barrels of demand, even when we achieve your world. Jacob, you know what I mean? Because if you want to have cheap oil, you'll always have to rely on Saudi Arabia and its GCC cousins. I don't you know, unless we decide, no, it's too volatile. Let's pay $80 a barrel for that sweet Canadian tar sands. So Canadian tar sands is no longer a break even at 80. It's come down. We decide it's what if the straight of hormones closes every couple of years? Like what if these types of conflict start happening? I mean, the straight of hormones, like this was the thing that never happened before. This was the thing everybody would upgrade up. Yeah, go. Let's know the great point. So first of all, that is my nightmare scenario. I think I've floated it on this podcast as well. Decade. And I was dismisses of it at first. And I'm like, I'm in a table sift turn. Taping the push. Yeah, now the tables have turned, baby. Okay, look, look, let's talk about something you and I have not talked and I'm surprised you haven't brought this up because you're a little bit of an India file. I am. Yeah. All right. So did you notice how there were two Iranian, I think frigates or destroyers? One was sunk by the Americans. The other one was given refuge by India. Okay. So why? Obviously, you know, India is trying to be nice. 180 people don't have to die. But they had also invited the Iranian frigate for the exercise. So it was like, it looked really bad if you invite them and then you get blown up by the ally. Well, one of them did get blown up now. I think India is just trying to do the right thing here. But I do think there's another thing here. I think the behind the scenes, Jacob, there's immense pressure on Iran to stop doing what they're doing. And once President Trump backs off from regime change, this is why regime change is so important. And why your point that they can still send drones one every month? Yes, they can. You're right. But to what end and for what cost? If President Trump tells you, I'm done. I don't care about regime change. And you're like, fuck you. We're still going to throw a drone. You're going to first and foremost have to face those B-52s that will carpet bomb you. But second of all, China and India, which are Iran's allies, I mean, India is, you know, not maybe I think it's too strong to say it partner. Yeah, partner. But I think both India and China have considerable leverage on Iran. They do buy its oil and India's move with the with the ship. I think was designed to kind of also continue to have a way to talk to Tehran as a friend. And I think that both India and China are going to put immense pressure on Iran because we're not in the future that you are asking them to bring forward. You're asking them to bring forward this world where you don't need straight and for moves, but we're not there yet. And you're talking about India and China, which combined are two and a half billion people. Very powerful countries, nuclear powers. And they're probably right now telling Iran like, look, look, man, I know, I know you're hurting. I know it was a sucker punch by the US and Israel in a bar fight. But like, you know, let's buy you a beer. Okay, maybe bad example. Let's buy you a soft front T. You just calm down, cool down. And like don't fight the Americans on this one. We'll help you on X, Y and Z. Yeah. Okay. Well, I'm glad you brought up India. So there's two things here. First of all, China and India, unlike the Europeans, can go by Russian oil. And I'll just quote, President Putin said this today. Yeah, I know. If European companies and European buyers suddenly decide to reorient themselves, reorient, that's good Vladimir themselves and provide us with long term sustainable cooperation free from political pressures, free from political pressures, then yes, we've never refused that we're ready to work with Europeans too. He's not going to work with Europeans, the Europeans are not going to work with him. The Indians and the Russians can replace Middle East foil because they can get it from Russia. I'm not saying it's perfect, but we can get into that. The second part though, and this is a question because I don't have an answer. I think I brought it up as an anomaly on the podcast. The week before all of the started, Narendra Modi was in Israel and he and Netanyahu were having a positively gushing bromance. It was hot and heavy. There is no way that India didn't know what was coming, I think. I don't know the answer to this question. What did India know? When did it know? What does it think about this? What does Modi think about all this? Is this some kind of Hindu, Judeo-Christian alignment against the Muslims in the long run? Was this just Modi got a heads up and he was like, "That's deep." Guys, this is happening. I guess we should call the Russians or we should do something or we should start working on whatever else. We have a little bit of extra time, but that's all we have. I'm really confused about what India's role is. It goes back to the hornet's nest that you kicked up when you said that no countries don't need to import anything from Israel. India's one of those countries that wants to import some of that fancy defense technology and things like that. But it can't just be all about that. Israel doesn't have enough to make India decide to turn their backs, not just on Iran, but on the Gulf states and everybody else. I think you're right. I think it's a huge, open question and it's super important. I don't know. I don't know the answer to the question. I don't know where India is in all of this. I think India and China are together in the same boat, along with South Korea, Taiwan and Japan and the entire Indo-Pacific region in that, hey, we actually do need that 20 million barrels a day. The trans is through the strait. 15 actually because Saudi Arabia can divert 5 million by a pipeline to the Red Sea. Look, the math doesn't square up. And what I mean by that, I think I suspect. I suspect. I don't have knowledge here. So I'm speaking blindly. But I suspect there's a lot of floating oil, Russian shadow fleet as they call it. It's out there somewhere and that oil is just sitting on ships. That oil is the oil that India and China can now buy. But that is oil that was already pumped and then just stored on a ship. China has maybe 300,000 extra barrels a day of production. It can send somewhere. Its oil is already being bought. There is just no way to replace straighter for moves. I mean, you're talking like, yeah, there's just nobody. And at one point, the White House, I think it was this spokeswoman when she said, "Well, we got Venezuela coming online." Like, girl, what are you talking about? There is no way to replace the stuff that transits through the straighter for moves. Now there's stock of supply. And this is what listeners have to understand. There's a difference between stock and flow. Yes, if the flow gets interrupted for like three months, we've got plenty of stock squirled around the cushions of the global proverbial couch where we can be like, "Oh, shit, look at this candy bar. We can just eat that." There is a lot of that around the world in floating storage, in strategic reserves. But if that flow gets interrupted for longer than like a month, month and a half, like Jacob, there's just no way to replace it. You know, that's way too much for everyone. Well, and that's. And that's. Also, to underscore your point. I mean, and that's for oil. There is not stock of fertilizer. There is not necessarily stock of Ellen G's. And that's where these other commodities, like really. Ellen G's a great point. And this is where I think what we're going to see more countries do is what we saw France. I don't know if you know this. I read it somewhere. I got to confirm it. But in 1987, the Soviets were also trying to demine the straight-off removes. The U.S. and the Soviets collaborated together in demining the straight-off removes. We have France sending an aircraft carrier and two Mistral helicopter carriers. There was just a lot of like, European over the last couple of weeks. Like, "Oh, look at them. They're going to write a letter." It's like, well, first of all, they didn't start the war. What do you want Europe to fucking do? That France is sending a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and two Mistral helicopter carriers, which are the most advanced helicopter carriers in the world. Did you see that Macron was on the aircraft carrier today? He came and gave it a special visit. Yeah. So, like, this is eight ships in total that France is sending. It's not 47 that America has, but it's not zero. So it's 20% of what America is sending. That's pretty large for France. What I'm getting at is that if we get into the scenario you're describing Jacob, where for some odd reason, the Iranians do want to meet their maker and do want to meet the B-52 and do want to continue to threaten the straight-off removes, I don't think that only the U.S. Navy is going to be involved. I do think that what you're going to actually see in this crazy, multipolar world is a true like international coalition, which by the way, we saw off the coast of Somalia. We saw off the coast of Red Sea. It's not just going to be France. France is the first one because I've always said France actually does have global power projection capabilities. People make fun of France, which is fine. Continue to make fun of them, but they do have a nuclear power aircraft carrier, which means they can throw 40 refiles outside of your city in a matter of weeks. That's kind of like just them and China. And then of course, U.S. I think China is going to get involved. Absolutely. And one of the things that I would expect to see come out of the summit that's coming up in three weeks between Xi and Trump is that she's going to say, "Yeah, bro, okay, I heard you. Do you want me to participate in this operation to ensure that shipping is secured?" And I do think that- That's central. Do you think that the Chinese will deploy an carrier strike group to help police ships going through the straight-off or moose? So they deployed destroyers off the coast of Somalia. I forgot what class of ships they sent. But they didn't participate. We're talking about something very, very different like Somalia, whatever. But why? First of all, yes, first of all, it's different in that this is infinitely more important to the Chinese. Correct. So this actually matters to Beijing and their economy. And second of all, this is Donald Trump, baby. Well, like if you offer to alleviate the burden of the American country for global defense, like why would Donald J. Trump say no to that? That's like the most mega thing ever. Like, "Oh, you want to do your job? You want to clean up this?" Okay, fine. It is the best I made. So maybe a bad example. But it matters more to you than it does to me. It's the ultimate mega move. Like, "Hey, I got the Chinese to finally start doing their job. This should be their responsibility." Yes, I decided to invite the Chinese to police the straight of four moves. I know it sounds weird. No, I know it. I like it. It's out there. Like if it happens, like, yeah, you're breaking my brain a little bit. I mean, India should get involved. But honestly, like in this particular situation, if Iran chooses to do what we both fear, it might. It does become a global problem. Now again, people who have liberals listening to this are going to tear themselves apart now because you're going to be like, "No, but America did this. It's America's fault." It's like, "Yeah, but at that point, like, you know, we're past that." Like. If you're truly there, it's not about being liberal. You have to go and I. Let me be very, very clear listeners. I don't want to get any hate mail about this. This Iranian regime, there are a bunch of theocratic, like ideologically poisons, sinister assholes. Like there is nothing I like about them. But there. If you are, you know, buying into like the resistance ideology, there is some small, small part of you that has to be like, I mean, they're get like if what you say comes true. So everybody's going to be against them. Literally everyone, just because they have the oil. Like this is what Iran has always feared. Going back like a hundred years that they were going to get screwed because they had the oil and everybody else wants the oil and they'll say whatever they want to say about it. But ultimately, whether it's the Chinese or the French or the Americans or the Russians or the Soviets, when they were the Soviets, like either you give us the oil or your point you meet the B-52s. Now maybe you understand why this population gave its future over to a bunch of Ayatollas who were promising them, you know, delusions of France. I don't know. There are some small part of me. I mean, I don't feel bad for the regime, but I feel bad for the Iranian people. Like this is this song. Well, yeah, it does. And that's why, you know, they better not go the punitive route. Well, they're going. Do you see any sign that they're not? I see no sign that Iran is ready to throw in the white towel. Well, if anything, I see the opposite. I don't know about that. And the reason I say this is yes, they chose. Let's get back. What's his name? Mosh Taba. Mosh Taba. Mosh Taba. Maning. First of his name, defender of the peacock throne and blah, blah, blah, blah. Let's get back to Mosh Taba in a second. But you ask the question, do I see any signs that they're. Rolling back. I do. I do. Let me let me let me give you my My read of the situation first and foremost, you know, I made fun of President Trump for being like me in a restaurant where I don't know I want to order you know, I end up eating my girls food Because I ordered rock But like let's talk about their verbiage Oh, everyone can transit only Israelis and Americans can transit the straight of rumors. That's what they said on Friday Today It's anyone who kicks out the Israeli and American ambassadors any European country Any European or Arab states that kicks out the Israeli and American ambassadors Can you can get their oil through no mention of india in China. I guess they're Scott free, baby You know, so what am I getting at? I mean, they're already themselves equivocating and again, just like if you go into a restaurant like President Trump and you don't know what to order You don't know what to order Just similarly once your like Iran is like the father who keeps moving the goalposts and then the kids walk all over him They don't say here is what here is what a mean Like I mean business Islamic Republic would say The straight of her moves is shut Thank you for your attention to this matter Mic drop that's what they would say Not like oh if you kick out the ambassador but he comes back and then you tell him Pack your shit up in a you hole But you got to use our moving company that's been like approved by a halal mula and then You know, you have to say the FedEx and a facts to a number in calm No, come on. They're just like they're fishing here themselves I mean, that's assigned to me that they are not ready for this and the other sign that they're not ready for it is because well again the drone Operations seem to be flailing. Yeah, and by the way going back to much taba Yes picking this guy seems like provoking Trump on the other hand like if you're gonna make a piece with Americans You can't use a liberal supreme leader. You know what I mean like You need somebody who can actually stand behind a regime. So I'm comfortable with a hardliner sometimes You know, he takes a nixon to go to China. Maybe takes much taba to like Make a deal with the Americans The problem with I mean maybe but his His dad his wife multiple members of his family were killed in the strike on the compound So this is like Nixon if also the Chinese killed Nixon's wife and what was the name of Nixon's dog? I forget the name of nixon's dog and you know whoever else was important to nixon not that anybody was important to nixon Because it's like important life so but like you know what I mean like this like most taba like Maybe maybe he'll do it, but like I cannot imagine his background And also what just happened to him that he's gonna bend the knee That that seems to me like a vote of defiance And maybe that's why I said like that's that's where I'm getting all in my garage with the push pins because it has to be like Okay, maybe they're buying themselves a couple date like they just we just need to mess with the straight a couple more days We need to show people that we can actually drive up the car Then they'll assassinate this guy. Yes We'll put up the guy who knew that and then we can figure out where we got to go But we haven't shown our we haven't shown that we can do enough yet Just to be clear just to be clear we have no idea what's gonna happen But I do I do think that scenario just outline there's like there's like let's say three scenarios, right? One scenario is like once Trump says I won the Iranians come back and say no we won, but we're good So that's the that's an unlikely scenario we agree the second scenario is like The Iranians have to show the rest of the world like that there might be willing to take that B52 pain in the face for at least a week Yeah And then the final scenario is this is a decade long thing They've uh they found a lot again Like they're waiting for the body Let's go you know like And I think that last scenario is unlikely because I just don't believe they're actually religious outlets I think this is late stage communism, you know, this is late stage soviet union This is the the part of the evil empire where nobody actually fucking believes a senator Palpatine emperor Palpatine anymore Everyone's in it You know For the imperial credits I think you're right about the regime, but Like this is also it's classic It's almost like like you know the tropes of Shia Islam are repeating themselves because then it becomes more than just about Iran itself Like the Shia rank and file in Iraq in Bahrain in the oil producing regions in Saudi Arabia So let's talk about that But let's talk about that Well, I'm not an expert enough to talk about it. We really need to come around on it's just to say like You're right about the kleptocratic rose at the top, but what is happening to The people on the ground were being like they're watching their oil depots go up They're watching the sulfuric whatever rain rain down upon them the b 52s are coming everybody's at the get them Nobody is protecting them like they're back to against the wall their religious leaders are being killed the fatwas are being put out by You know the all so all so stony Yeah, so all all all the all so stony is what is considered the greatest Shia cleric He did put out the fatwa That happened at what if the Shia are the fremen to bring it really back to you know, but Okay fine Let's see what happens There was a great Reuters article at the beginning of this conflict about how Iraqi militias are kind of quiet And one of my favorite lines in this this was the best Reuters reporting over the last week Who one of the lines there was like they were talking to some Shia militia guy You know like he works for the militia he was like look you got to understand our politicians are now kind of wealthy Their kids are all in the west studying and getting good health care like they're not in it They're not they're not in it for the life anymore, man You know, they don't want the smoke And so far I gotta say Jacob It seems prescient. It's a weekend the Iraqis have been kind of quiet The Iraqi Shias which I always thought was the biggest risk. Why is Iraq the biggest risk? Because it actually creates a land bridge between Saudi Arabia and Iran a land bridge of risk You know if suddenly Iran gets involved in some shapeway reform The problem then becomes that threatens Saudi Arabia I think the problem for the Iranians however is that if they were Banking on Iraqi Shias getting involved they should have remembered This is a country that's had to deal with you know 23 years of basically Sikhtarian war. I just don't think anyone Iraq is looking for another Another decade of this stuff and so that's why you haven't actually seen anyone get involved I mean, I think I think Maybe it's as simple as this the outcomes razor here is that Iran is very alone very alone Who is there to help them Russia? Obviously is loving what's happening sanctions are being removed Oil prices high, but what are you gonna do send? Iranians Some drones they bought from Iran 12 months ago like what is what is Russia going to do in this moment? Other than moral support and probably yes, I Do assume that Russians are helping them with intelligence like here's a base. Here's an American base like you know And it was funny because what Trump was asked about that on Air Force one during one of the press gagals Credit work credit. Yeah, right. He was like well, we do it to them. What do you want to do? No? No? No? His answer was his answer was if they are they're doing a terrible job. Oh, yeah, that's right. That's another one That was but first he said perfect We do it to them because not because 95% of the time the man is a raving lunatic and then he pulls that out and I'm like Is it all an act like is there really a brain? I think I think he was made for TV Like I think you're underestimating like his natural talent As just an entrepreneur You know if if real people were dying like this would be a great television show, right like we're all gripped His flip flopping left right in the center all prices are going up and down. I mean he's created a whole industry by himself Including ourselves like holy shit. We're swimming in Trump's wake Unfortunately, of course real people are dying Both in you know, American how-lite countries and it Iran um But yes, he definitely knows how to crack Align because he was made for TV All right last word to you anything we didn't hit before we get out of here We will be back on friday to pick up the carnage of the week and see where we're at And who knows where we'll be between now and then I don't know what the last word is I think I Think One other thing we didn't talk about we talked about all sorts of ways in which I think Iran Is starting to signal that they're not in it for the long haul But one other thing I would say is that they've been very quiet over the last Let's say 12 hours like since since they picked their new supreme leader, Murshtaba And since president Trump went back and forth Taco-ing as People like to say They haven't really said anything And I just want to leave you with this thought Jacob. I just wish Monty Python was still with us You know because I think a skit a skit A little scene that only Monty Python could do This is what I want this is what I want for my birthday Jacob for my like 50th birthday one day I want somebody to recreate a multi-pightened skit where several senior Islamic clerics who have spent decades studying Islamic jurisprudence have to explain to Mukhtaba the taco trade. That's it. That's the skit. It's like seven minutes of basically seven dudes and robes with PhDs in Islamic Shia theology. Being like, "So look, it's like when this guy dolled Trump, he comes and he says X, but it's really Y and it's called taco because he stands for Trump always shittings out. And Mukhtaba goes, "Okay." And this is not to be confused with Mexican tacos, which is where they take something like a pita and put something like some of our food into it and put some sauce on it. So it's a play on words so they really have to go there too before they can. No, it's just a whole thing. Or some upstart, like, you know, young cleric is like, "I'm very sure that taco is now what you're saying." It's really a Mexican delicacy that involves all of these like non-volved foods. No, no, no, no. I saw it on X. It's this guy Jacob Shapiro. Yes, a Jew, but listen, he's got a good X-stream. Let me tell you, I follow him closely. And listen, I mean, that would be a great Monty Python skit. I'll tell you that. Well, I mean, some of them are still alive. So somehow we need to get. John Cleese. John Cleese to listen to this podcast. John, if you're out there. I grew up on Monty Python in former Yugoslavia. I basically learned English that way. So you know what I mean? Like those guys' religions, and we need more of that kind of humor. Okay, well, we'll leave it at that. And listeners will see you on Friday. Assuming something crazy doesn't happen before then. We'll emergency it up if we have. But otherwise, we'll see you Friday.