These voters say the election won’t change much

This year's Blue Wave wasn't just powered by hardcore Democrats. Independence swung towards Democratic candidates in huge numbers according to exit polls. Today, our first post-election focused group with swing voters. What do they want to see from a Democratic-controlled Congress? And who will they blame if there are problems? It's the MPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I also cover voting. And I'm Mara Liason, Senior National Political Correspondent. And Ashley, this is a series we've been doing all year, hearing from focus groups of voters who voted for. President Biden in 2020, President Trump in 2024. Tell us a little bit more about who these people are. Right, so we heard from 14 voters in North Carolina who were in that group of voters, people who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024. In this group, there were 10 people who identified as independence, three as Republicans and one Democrat. And these were online focus groups held last night by messaging firm engages and market research recruiter Nelson recruiting. We partner with them each month as part of the swing voter project, which is conducted in a different battleground states every month. And the moderator of these focus groups has reached how from engages who we will be hearing throughout this. And we will only be referring to the folks in these focus groups by their first names, because it was one of the conditions of their participation. And what we say every time is you have to understand focus groups are not a poll. They're statistically insignificant because they're a small group of people, but why we love them so much is because polls tell us what voters are thinking, but focus groups allow us to really look into why they're feeling that way. And they can describe how they came to certain conclusions. It really is like a window inside a voter's brain. Yeah, and I was so excited to see this month's focus group was in North Carolina, which really feels like ground zero for this year's blue wave. You look at the Senate race, Senator-elect Roy Cooper won the state by 20 points. He's a Democrat, and yet this is a state that Donald Trump won all three times. He's been on the ballot. Democrats also flipped a number of House seats. What do these voters say, Ashley? Give us a sense of why this happened. I mean, the biggest thing we heard is what we've been hearing all year, which is that folks are really frustrated with President Trump. They think the Republican Congress hasn't done much to help them, as well as President Trump. And, you know, Rich Tao, the moderator of these focus groups, asked them, you know, what do you make of the fact that Democrats are now going to be taking over Congress? We're going to hear from Erica, Deborah, and Charity. So I think it's time for some change. See what happens. What about the rest of you? What do you make of this result? I think everybody wants to change. Charity, go ahead. So I agree we need change, but this whole blue wave, I'm a little apprehensive because the Democrats make a lot of promises. And a lot of their interests do not line up with my interests. And so I'm kind of afraid in a way. I'm just, I'm at that point. What happens next with this blue wave? Yeah, I'm not optimistic about it at all. Yeah, this is very typical swing voter stuff, which is a lot of these voters, especially the independence aren't happy with either party. So a blue wave for some of these voters doesn't amount to this means like everything's going to get better overnight. Although a lot of these voters did vote for Roy Cooper. I mean, this is not a poll, but it was like a significant chunk of them. I think like six out of the 14. And a lot of them said they just wanted to see some change in Washington. I wonder from you, Mara, big picture. Before we dig into it, there's a lot to unpack even just in that first answer. But I'm curious. Your thoughts, big picture. I felt like I was less surprised by the blue wave because of the focus groups we heard. Where we heard this frustration building all year. And it sounds like we heard more of that last night. Is that, is that how you perceived on election night? I mean, were you kind of going back and thinking through what we've been hearing from some voters all year? I certainly was surprised by the magnitude. But one thing we did see over time in these focus groups that was so interesting is that the way voters thoughts evolved. First, they were kind of unhappy with Trump. Then they started connecting the Warren Iran. And tariffs with high prices. Then they started connecting corruption with those things. So as time went on, they got more and more cynical, more and more sour about the economy, and more willing to describe their vote as a vote to be a check on Trump. Not necessarily because they loved the Democratic Party. But what I think is so interesting now is how little optimism there is about what Democrats are going to deliver for them. Here's Rick, one of our focus groups, swing voters, who was asked about what he expects from Democrats. I'm really concerned they're going to pursue those investigations and such. And whether they're true or not, it doesn't really matter because there are people in the middle that will be in forgotten and can't afford gay-ass and health care. We need a real serious meeting in the middle. And I don't think anybody's got stomach for it because there are a bunch of politicians. So these voters sent a loud and clear message. They want affordability to be the number one priority of the new Congress. Accountability is second. That is what you hear from Democratic leaders. Whether they will actually do that is another question. But the other thing that was interesting to me is how low the expectations are for Democrats. And that can be a good thing or a bad thing. A low bar is easier to hurdle. But here's Stephen. And this is what he says is likely to happen for the next two years. I think realistically just means nothing's going to happen for the next two years. President Trump would veto anything that comes to his desk. And the House and Senate majorities are not veto-proof either. So literally nothing will happen for the next two years. Yeah. And low expectations can cut both ways, right? Like you can hear that and hear like, oh man, oh man. People do not think very highly of Democrats, which is true. And you see that in the polling, the Democratic brand has been struggling for a while now. But you can also hear that as very little could probably impress a lot of voters. If Democrats even make the show of really trying to solve some of their problems, despite the fact that they don't have, you know, the White House. So getting stuff materially passed and signed into law will be, will be tough. And it's hard to argue with any of these voters that they shouldn't have low expectations. After all, they've been waiting for Congress to do something about the things they care about for many, many years, with different parties in charge. I guess I'm wondering though, how much of what we're hearing? Because we're hearing from swing voters here, these are these voters in the middle. But as we've talked about a lot this year, there are fewer and fewer of these people deciding who is actually sent to Congress because of our gerrymandered system in Congress. And I guess I wonder how much does that play into, you know, as congressional leaders are deciding what to pursue. Are they going to be listening to these sort of voters? Or are they going to be forced to sort of cater to the extreme? No, these are the exact voters they're going to listen to because these are the voters. They persuaded enough of them to cross the aisle. That's what was so significant about this election. It wasn't a turnout election as elections have been in the recent past. There weren't enough Democrats to turn out in Kansas and Iowa and Texas. They had to convince people like these swing voters to cross the aisle and vote for them. And, you know, the amount of attention that the Democratic Socialists backed candidates are getting, let's be realistic. Despite what you hear on right-wing media, which makes it seem like every single Democrat is a socialist or worse, there are actually two current DSA members in the House of Representatives and they're going to be eight, which is impressive, but they were not the majority makers. These are districts that would have sent a Democrat to Congress no matter what. And the true majority makers were all those centrist candidates that flipped 31 seats. I mean, I think this is why you're hearing a lot of Democrats say that they're going to have to walk into gum at the same time. Like, I don't see a situation in which there's no accountability. Like, this is a democracy if there are crimes. Like, people should be held accountable. Like, that is just how democracy's function. And on the other side, like, President Biden got a lot of golf. He got a lot of pushback for not doing a good job of talking about the things he actually did. Rich Tao, who's been moderating these focus groups for years, he told us like, you know, this was something he heard from these same swing voters, which is that they had no idea that stuff like a big infrastructure package passed, stuff like that. And so, Democrats are going to have to do a good job of letting voters know that they are working on these economic issues. Because if the only thing they hear is Democrats grilling Republicans, you know, in committee hearings, that's not going to go over well. Is it fair to say, and we heard from that one voter who said what do you say realistically? I don't think anything is going to happen in the next two years. Was that what we generally heard from everybody that they expect gridlock? Well, a lot of voters who now voters have voted for divided government in the past. Sometimes divided government produces gridlock, which gives a certain amount of certainty to the business community and to markets. I mean, gridlock has its purpose, but you're pro gridlock. No, I'm not pro gridlock, but I am saying I've seen divided government that produces nothing but gridlock, but I've also seen divided governments that manage to produce bipartisan legislation. And a lot of that will depend on what President Trump decides to do. Okay, let's take a quick break and more on exactly that point in just a moment. And we're back. So, Ashley, I want to get to this idea that I feel like it's going to be one of the defining things we're going to be watching over the next two years in terms of how far Democrats want to go when it comes to investigating Donald Trump. What did these voters say about the appetite they have or whether they want to just move on? I mean, a lot of them want to move on. What they mostly don't want to see is these investigations to eclipse their work on the economy. They don't want to see, you know, these hearings become more important to Democrats than solving some of the financial and like material problems that people have. And in fact, they're worried that focusing too much on these investigations will. you know, mean that they're wasting resources that could be spent on focusing on, you know, economic problems. So here is Nancy, who's a Republican and Steven, an independent voter. I think it will use a lot of resources. It's a waste of time and money. When they could be focusing on other things, the economy, war, immigration. I mean, I pretty much agree on or present with what Nancy says. I think it's a waste of time when they could be focusing on the economy, affordability, the American people. To expand a little bit on what Nancy said, you know, now that President Trump and any future president has pretty much absolute immunity for things that he doesn't office. Why are we investigating someone that has absolute immunity? And then it's just going to be a tick for a tack where it seems like every new president that comes in, they're going to be investigated for something. So let's just try and come together at this point. You know, that really lays out the challenge for Democrats. When I talk to Democrats, what they say they want to do with these investigations, in addition to uncovering crimes if there were some, is to tell a story about how corruption is connected to high prices. And that every time they do that, they also hope to have a piece of legislation that will explain how Democrats would fix the situation. Maybe it's barring federal contractors from making political contributions. That could be called the Elon Musk bill. But it just shows you how difficult it's going to be for Democrats to do all of these different things, investigate wrongdoing. Oversight is a function of the article one branch, also pass legislation, or at least explain to the voters what kind of legislation they would pass if they had a Democratic president who would sign it. The Democrats have a big, big to-do list. It's going to be tough because there is a big part of the electorate. Clearly, we saw this in exit polls that want Democrats to do something. But this is an influential, small, but influential part of the electorate that sees this as a continuation of the sort of back and forth between parties. It's just political brinksmanship. They don't see this as actually solving any problems. So it's a tough thing to sort of figure out from here. Well, and I would argue, I know we're two years away from 2028, but I can guarantee you it's an election. Donald Trump's not going to be on the ballot, but many Democrats are going to want it to still feel like a referendum on Donald Trump in some way, because he is the greatest turnout machine. American politics maybe has ever seen, right? For both parties. For both parties, but especially for Democrats. The two highest midterm elections in history were Donald Trump midterms. I also want to get to this idea that we've touched on a lot in these focus groups this year, which is the cynicism that Americans feel about the political system. Did we hear more of that in this conversation? I mean, especially when it comes to Trump, we heard a lot of that. I do think that even if a lot doesn't happen, let's say if Democrats fall short of a lot of their goals here, especially when it comes to the economy, I don't think they'll be squarely blamed by these voters. We heard time and time again that they still see Trump as the biggest obstacle to our politics working correctly. Unprompted, we heard in both groups, voters say that they feel like Trump's style of politics isn't going to be helpful here. This is Kristen, Tia, and Erica. It just seems recently it's his way or the highway, and I know if you look at the broader picture, yeah, maybe it's always been that way. It seems as though he's trying to bully his way through every situation he's gotten us in his US. A lot of the times it's his way or no way, and I don't like that. First is looking at a larger majority. He promised a lot of things that he would put into place when he became president again, and I haven't seen any of those policies come into play. It's like he just brushed it under like the blusher under the carpet, if you will, and just his way or the highway, and I just don't like that. I don't like that mentality. Can't be said enough. These are people who voted for President Trump in 2024. I feel like every time we do one of these podcasts, I have to say it 40 times, because it is striking to hear these voters now reflecting on the president. Yeah, well, these voters have been rented to the Democrats. They are not owned by the Democrats, and that's what a swing voter is. They're capable of changing their minds. Donald Trump made a mistake that so many presidents make, which is to think that a very, very narrow win equaled a giant mandate, and Biden made the same mistake. That is the cautionary tale, another cautionary tale for Democrats. They have an opportunity, not a mandate. When you hear them talk, they seem to understand that. They've been given an audition, and we're going to see if that sticks, or if they decide to just do whatever they can, and investigate everybody in the universe. Yeah, but I think that what's important to take away from this is you could see Democrats' biggest obstacle, of course, being like if they focus on the investigation side too much, and they get punished for that, like they did during the Biden administration. But I think voters are saying we can see very clearly what the situation is here, which is that Trump is a big obstacle. It's not just Democrats focusing on wrong things. It's not just the economy being an intractable problem that no party seems to figure out. It is Trump's personality, and this was a big part of the discussion last night. Tell me more about that in terms of how his personality actually came up. Rich Tao, the president of Engage, has played this clip for them that he found really revealing about who Trump is. We're actually going to play a little bit of that exchange as between President Trump and Ross Douthet. They were on the CBS News Show 60 Minutes this past Sunday, and among the many topics that came up was Douthet asking Trump if he thought he would go to heaven when he died. Trump said he hoped he would, because he said he was a religious person, and then Douthet asked if Trump would forgive his enemies in order to get into heaven. Trump said no. Here's a bit of that exchange that you'll hear between him and Douthet. You have had the most charmed and remarkable life of any American in my entire lifetime, and you are telling me that before the judgment thrown of God, you couldn't find it in your heart to forgive some of your enemies. After all that's been given to you, come on, help me out here. I mean, it's such an easy answer. Well, I have to do say, yes, I can't. Again, I don't think it's an easy answer. Can I be honest? I probably cannot do that now, because I do hate some of my enemies, and I always will. And then Rich Tao asked them, okay, like what do you make of this? We're going to hear from Charity, Shally, Steven, and Nancy. Stair one is terrible to have the lead of the world, saying that he can't forgive his enemies. What kind of measures do that sense? Does that sense everyone else? What I do respect is that he's honest, right? Like I think a lot of the times is we see a person, but they might lie about their emotion or experience, whereas like he's very frank. He's basically saying even if something is a mistake, he won't change his ways. That he's so full of hate that he cannot forgive someone, you know, or it's more important to be right than to forget. Yeah, it's more important to be right. I think that's a lot of the takeaway from these swing voters. It's like they don't think this 80-year-old man is going to change or that he's going to bow or bend in any sort of way. Despite this massive rebuke that he got in the election, they think he's stubborn and he's not going to change even before God, he will not change. So my right, I guess one of my takeaways from this is that if we assume that there's a whole lot of gridlock and a whole lot of fighting over the next two years, is it fair to assume that these sort of swing voters at this point would be more likely to blame President Trump for that than to blame the newly elected Democrats? Well, probably he's also just a bigger, more overwhelming figure and Congress is just 535 individual people. I think they will be, but that depends if Democrats can tell a really powerful story. They have to tell a story about why they pass certain pieces of legislation, why it would have been great for their constituents, except Trump vetoed it. Also, if Trump is a labor and labor duck, his time goes on and his approval rating continues to be where it is, it doesn't even have to go any lower because I don't believe it can. As I've said before, he's at the bare metal base of the Republican Party, 38%. We'll Republicans start to peel off and vote with Democrats, and that will create a whole new situation in Washington. All right, well, we can leave it there for today. Thanks again, as always, to you guys for bringing us this folks group. I'm Miles Parks. I come from voting. I'm Ashley Lopez. I also cover voting. And I'm Mara Liesen, Senior National Political Correspondent. And thank you for listening to the MPR Politics Podcast.