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Speaker 3There are lots of good reasons why the market should crash and crash in a big way. I think there's a very material likelihood we get a very disruptive, very volatile, very downward biased stock market next year for a lot of reasons. Valuations are just one. The tender has been set. The spark just needs to happen.
Speaker 4Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Taggart. Very excited to be sitting down here with the team at New Harbor, one of the endorsed financial advisors by Thoughtful Money. These gentlemen are on the show with me pretty much weekly. But every month we like to sit down and do a deep dive in terms of their outlook and what they see ahead for both macro and the markets. I'm joined as usual by Mike Preston and John Lodra, the two senior partners at New Harbor Financial. Gentlemen, thanks so much for joining me.
Speaker 3Great to be with you, Adam. Thanks for having us once again.
Speaker 4Thanks, Adam. Good to see you. Good. Guys, I really enjoy these monthly deep dives and the audience really seems to too based upon feedback. So let's just roll up our sleeves and dive right in here. Last week, John, you were on the road. Mike was here flying solo and we were recording the day, was it last Thursday, when the markets had their biggest one-day drop, I think in like six years or something like that. It was a really big downdraft. And we were trying to make sense of it in real time. Now, Mike, we've got a little bit of benefit of hindsight here to see that it really largely was a one-day bloodletting. Markets have recovered a little bit since then. So I guess the big question is, was this just kind of like a rogue wave in the markets? Or is this a harbinger of perhaps more selling to come? Was enough technical damage done to start pulling the market in a downward direction? Or are you guys getting a green light from your signals that the worst is behind us and we should likely rally into the end of the year?
Speaker 5Here's the thing about managing money, whether you're a professional, Adam, or an individual investor, nobody knows for sure. The market is an emotional beast because it's made up of people. And the market last Thursday was super, super emotional. I can say with the benefit of hindsight that so far, it looks like it might have been a rogue wave. I'd like to share a couple charts, tell you a little bit about what we did, what we're doing now, and then we can go from there. But last Thursday, I'll pull up a chart of the S&P first, and I'll go to the NASDAQ. It was a big down day. I mean, take a look at the bar that's about to, come up on your screen as I'm sharing. Here's a daily chart of the S&P 500. That day, last third, I guess it was 11.5. Yeah, we're down about 77, what, 400, several hundred S&P points. And the NASDAQ was even worse. Here's the NASDAQ. So since I went over the NASDAQ, take a look. You went back here and October 6th, I guess the NASDAQ hit a high. The NASDAQ was leading up to that point and then it got, it got weak, particularly AI stocks. Things like, if you take a look at, I think it's AIQ, there's an ETF that tracks AI. You can see that that's down hard, but NASDAQ. NASDAQ sliced right through the 200-day moving average, which is the green line. It was well below the red line, which is the 50-day moving average. Now we've had a monster bounce on the NASDAQ. We're coming back to the 21-day moving average, which is something that short-term traders use. So I guess I might want to say, take some caution with the NASDAQ here. It's only come back to the 21, but what really has me thinking that it's more bullish than not is the fact that the S&P is coming back, almost recovering the entire bar with today's move. We're up about 86 S&P points right now, 1.14%. And in the meantime, our system is starting to generate positive signals. The main indices, the Dow, the NYSE, have given us some good breath, and we're going to have some good signals. We follow breath. We follow things called bullish percent signals, which is essentially a breath measure. It measures the number of stocks within an index that are on a buy signal, using a point and figure methodology. All the indices have strengthened and are giving buy signals or green light signals, except for the NASDAQ. And I think with the NASDAQ movement today, go back to the NDX. NDX is up 2.36%. That is almost certainly going to reverse up. Our main indicator is reversing up. At the same time, we're seeing a lot of improvement. NASDAQ above the 200. We'll see if it can get above the 50 in the coming days. Back to the S&P, essentially back well above the 200. A nice bounce above there. And if we improve in the next couple of days, we are almost certainly going to go above the 50. If today has good volume and closes up at these levels, I think that we are going to be quite constructive, and we're probably going to be adding back a little bit of equity. I should tell you, we came into this kind of meltdown at about 42.5% equity. The reason why it's not higher is because we saw some of these things rolling over, and some of our positions hit or violated levels that we want to take the loss in them. Some of them included things like real estate, regional banks, etc. Now, so that brought us down to about 42.5%. That's about 42% from previously 50. And then with the last week's meltdown, we took a loss on XES. Now look what happened here. We sold this down here at around 96, and now today it's at 100. That's sometimes what will happen with risk control. So we sold a 5% position in energy because essentially crude went from about $100 a barrel down to like 84 or something in a very short period of time. And we've had this thing a long time. It was a big gainer. Take a look at the weekly chart. We bought it like back here. It was on the breakout last year. And so it had a big move, but finally gave back too much. We had to adhere to our levels of discipline. We sold that, bringing us from 42.5% to 37.5% equity. And like so often will happen, it went higher since we sold it, so be it. There's no way to have risk control and not have that happen from time to time. So here we are at 37.5% with our system that's coming back into positive. Signals across the board. We're probably going to add something like one of our stronger symbols. Small caps. The chart looks good, and they're showing good relative strength. And believe it or not, banks are looking pretty good here. Banks, this is XLF. This happens to be an ETF that tracks banks. Look at this big base. Now last week it had this crazy one-day bar. Look at that. A new high and closed at the low. That's called a bearish engulfing bar. But kind of ignoring that at the moment because we're right back to where that base breakout is. It's a strong relative strength. So we're probably going to inch back up maybe into the low 40s in the coming days. Maybe it's going to be in sectors like that that are leading. So I know that's a long answer, but I'm going to say that it's 70% or 80% likely at this point that that was a rogue wave that's kind of loading the energy, loading the chamber, so to speak, of negativity to potentially push us higher. Not trading heavily or aggressively from that position, but we're going to listen to our system. Like we have.
Speaker 4And we're going to probably add back some equity real soon. All right. That was really helpful, Mike. And I want to underscore, you know, sort of the difference between trading on narrative versus trading the market you have. As regular people, you know, it's very easy for a lot of us to read the headlines and then try to say, oh, well, if that's happening in the world, this is going to happen next. This is likely to happen next. And then place our investing themes on that. What technical analysis helps professionals like you do is really just trade the market as it is, right? Kind of forgetting narratives and things like that. And who knows? I'd like to get your thoughts on this. But that flushing out in the market there, while parts of that might have been technical, where the market may have been stretched overbought or whatever, and some of that just needed to come out, to me, it really seemed to be a post-election results narrative. Where the market said, oh, you had a lot of these, you know, as this blue wave, you had a lot of these more progressive candidates get elected who are on sort of a either anti-data center platform or at least a, hey, we need to really rein in, you know, these data centers and slow this build out down. I think the market said, whoa, wait a minute. You know, everything is so dependent on AI. You know, there was a bit of a panic. And you got to flush out in the market there. But basically, as you said earlier, Mike, that was probably just all emotion. And once the emotions were run through, the market is continuing to do what the market was continuing to do. And those concerns, to your point of view, if there's not real big fundamental drivers behind them, they give you this traditional wall of worry. And that's what bull markets climb, right? They climb a wall of worry. So I just want to note that it seemed very emotion, very narrative driven, especially too, when it wasn't just AI, it was kind of everything, right? Tech got hit the worst, but all those other sectors you mentioned, banks and real estate and energy and everything else that you could look at, everything got flushed out that day. So it does appear for the moment to have been more of a narrative driven panic than a fundamental shift in market trend. Obviously, we'll see over time whether that proves to be the case or not, but it seems that that's sort of how you guys are planning to trade it. And I think that's a really good point. I think that's a really good point. And right now, it's more likely you're going to increase equity exposure versus decrease it, correct?
Speaker 5Yeah, because we're getting the positive signals and nothing's perfect. Some of the stuff we sold went higher in the coming days, including what we sold the other day. So that sometimes happens, but we're not letting it walk us into inaction, right? Because we have more information now. Our system is giving positive signals. We're going to start to take more positive action. And we're probably only going to go from 37.5 up into the 40s, maybe as high as 50. Bear in mind that we are in a severely overvalued market that is at the tail end of a big move. And the bigger picture is that this market is likely trying to find a top if it hasn't already. At some point in these levels, I still think it might happen that we have a blow off top and a further parabola higher. But even if that happens, we're not going to get super aggressive because we know where we are in the story. So know where you are in the story, have your beliefs about that, and then create some parameters around that. And then the adjustments within that game plan that I'm discussing here have some signals or some reasons for why you're doing what you're doing. And so, so far, it does look like a wall of worry. It looks like we might be reloading energy here, negativity, to move higher. Now, that's not really going to be known for sure until these indices recover all their losses and move to new highs. But we're seeing enough short-term indicators here that are going to have us nudging back in. It's more positive than not.
Speaker 4All right. So, John, in looking at that, first off, feel free to anything to what Mike said there. But is your default? So a lot of folks I've talked to recently are saying sort of their default right now is probably more likely than not, you know, stocks have a stronger end of the year. They have a lot of concerns about 2027. So they're not necessarily saying a strong end of the year means strong 2027, but they're saying, you know, they're not kind of reducing market exposure yet. Is that sort of a similar to the New Harbor point of view, or is it more nuanced?
Speaker 3Yeah, Adam, I'll just add a couple of things. I was off last week, and it's great to have a team and a process. I was on vacation, happened to be in England, mostly London. But the day of the big sell-off, we were out in this tiny little country village in the Surrey Hills of England. Couldn't get a sell signal. But I was at a pub. Of course, what you do in the country in England, you stop at a pub, and had a very, very vibrant conversation with the bartender there about what was going on in markets that day, even though I couldn't really see what was going on, because I was literally off grid. But we had a very, very in-depth conversation. He finally shared the Wi-Fi with me, so I was able to plug in and see in real time what was going on. But if anybody was wondering if the world is watching, they were, even in this small little country village. I got to share just a funny, well, I got a kick out of this wall hanging in the pub I was in. And people know we've long talked about precious metals, and we're not gold bugs by any stretch, but we've talked about the role of precious metals. But in this pub, this pub dates back to the 1600s, I think. And you can see, basically, it's a cartoon here, prosperity on one side and redemption, and it shows a guy holding bags of gold coins. And then you got ruin and repudiation here, guy holding greenbacks. And of course, in England, they could be holding pounds and things like that, but the pick on our greenback there, I thought that was a kind of a funny thing to see.
Speaker 4Well, it does show you how these concerns about the debasement trade, the loss of purchasing power of fiat currency, nothing new about that.
Speaker 3Yeah, no, it's everybody. A lot of people are thinking about it. There's nothing novel about that. But yeah, so look, these markets have been pretty crazy. I'll just echo that. And this is where, having a systematic approach can be really, really important, is really important. It's kind of the analogy of a pilot of an airline can fly through pretty turbulent weather. It might be a little bumpy, but with the right instruments or with the right dashboard, the right panel, that plane's not going to crash, hopefully, obviously. But it doesn't mean that the ride is always smooth, but it can be the difference between landing the plane, getting to your destination versus, and that's really how we rely on our systematic process. And it's not a black box. It's not a light switch indicator. There are multifaceted things we look at to get emerging pictures. One of the things, I found a great chart last week that I thought I'd share here, just to give a visual of how disruptive things have been underneath the surface. I think this was in Financial Times. I apologize, I don't have the proper credit here, but it was data from FactSet. And it basically shows by sector the year-to-date performance. This is as of November, 5th, so that day of the big sell-off. So it was after that big sell-off last week. And what it shows, and it compares the year-to-date as of that time as compared to one month prior, so October 5th, I guess you would say, and then year-to-date. So look, you know, what jumps out at you here. Look for the big curlovers. Infotech was up 31% a month ago. And then in one month, it was down to like 9.5%. These are sectors of the S&P. Very big reversal. You got energy. Energy starting to turn down. Energy has been the strongest sector year-to-date. But then look at other ones. You've got things that came from the living dead, things like consumer staples. They've been dead money for the longest time. Massive move just in the last month, okay? Things that had been faltering. You know, some very, very profound sector rotations under the surface. Now, our process very much does try to tease out these sector trends. I will say these moves are quicker than we would allow ourselves to do. So, you know, I think it's a very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very difficult move to allow our system to be. Because the risk here is you get whipsawed, right? A lot of people are seeing this move in tech and writing it off for dead. Like the tech bubble's over. You know, we've been underweight tech for a lot of understandable and good reasons that we can elaborate on. Probably obvious reasons to most people. But you'd be forgiven to say, well, the tech sector's toast. You know, move on, go into staples and call it a day. Not quite that easy. And we do have a bias that the market probably drifts, if not melts up higher through the end of the year based upon where our dashboard is today. We don't put a lot of, you know, if you look at, for example, midterm, post-midterm election years, typically this is on average a strong period. We don't put a lot of weight in these kind of average type things because what that does is it ignores the fact that there's oftentimes quite a dispersion. And we don't want to rely on averages when there are times where, the average is bucked in a harmful way to clients. That's why we rely on what the market is telling us, not what, you know, on average history says. That just kind of loses, in our opinion, the signal of things. Just one thing I want to show you here. Mike talked about bullish percents. You know, we can look at bullish percents by the whole market, but also at the sector level. And this simply reflects the number of stocks in a given universe, either the market or sector level, that are on what we call point of figure buy signals. Okay. And in, at the extremes, it can be a very contrarian indicator. So I look at here, for example, semiconductors. Only about 12% of stocks in the semiconductor sector were, and this is as of yesterday, were on bullish percent buy signals. Typically when things get that washed out, when sentiment is that negative, it is an environment where there can be a very, very sharp short-term rally. And so far, that's what we've seen. Semiconductors are a pretty strong lead today. One day is not a trend. That, that, both ways, you know, it's going to be, it's going to be a trend. We've seen a 12% chart reversed up yesterday. So we don't think the tech sector is dead. We think if you're, you know, be cautious entering some of these sectors, if you're not already invested, but if you're, if you're heavily in there and, and you know, you wonder if you missed the boat, there's probably going to be a better exit point in the coming days or weeks where you may see a relief rally here, just because things have gotten so overdone. But generally speaking, you know, we are, we are biased to think that markets are going to kind of either drip or, or, or melt higher towards the end of the year, just given where our indicators are right now.
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Speaker 4Okay. So, you know, as Mike was saying, you guys are potentially looking to increase your equity exposure. John, you just said that you think more likely than not, stocks likely to end the year higher than now. Who knows? But obviously, you know, you'll base your positioning off of that and keep looking at all the instrumentations that are on your dashboard there. So we just got some surprising, somewhat surprising CPI inflation data this week. And that has increased market expectations for rate cuts going forward from here. It is sort of interesting because the day that that report came out, we saw stocks down, we saw things like precious metals and Bitcoin down a fair amount. Obviously, those are very interest rate sensitive assets. Just sort of square that circle. I mean, the narrative would say, well, if interest rates are going up, then in theory, stocks and other things should go down. I know it doesn't necessarily work that way all the time. And it hasn't really worked that way this year as the Kevin Forsh Fed has started hiking again. What do you think the implications will be, if any, of these higher expectations for more rate cuts going forward?
Speaker 3Yeah, that report was a bit of a shocker, I think, for a lot of watchers. In fact, I think today, Goolsbee, one of the Fed Open Market Committee members, described it as borderline disturbing, I think was his terminology. So that's definitely got the eyes of, in fact, if we look, I just happen to have the latest probabilities based on CME Fed futures.
Speaker 4And while you're pulling it up, let me just mention this one thing. I think sort of compounding the market's reaction was one of the Fed governors, I think it was, was it Waller, had come out hours before, or an interview with him had come out hours before the CPI was released. And they asked his opinion about rate hikes. And he said, Well, you know, if it comes in below three, I think I'll be okay. But if it comes in at three, I might be more inclined to, you know, hike even more like 50 basis points, and then point three, and then it came in at point four. So obviously, the world should have said, Wow, if Waller was was scared about point three, he must be freaking out about point four. So obviously, that was sort of the tenor of how we're going to do this. people receive the news.
Speaker 3December meeting. This is today as we record this on Veterans Day, November 11. And by the way, thank you to all our veterans out there. It's quite a privilege to live in this world and the service that you all have provided to certainly to our country. But this this is the probability of today versus yesterday versus a week ago versus a month ago. So for a long time, the market has been expecting at least a quarter point raise in at the December meeting. Okay, what has changed a little bit is that the market has been expecting at least a quarter point raise in at the December meeting. Okay, what has changed a little bit is that the there was a modest probability of staying put at the December that's off the table. Now you can see there's no dark, or these these two bars are no longer existent in this data. So now it's 100% probability of of of raising whereas, you know, a week and a month ago, there was approaching 20% assumed probability of them standing pat at the December meeting. But what you see here is there's been a pretty notable increase of the probabilities of even 50 basis point a half a percent raise in at the December meeting. So that's, that's noble, but but I don't think it's a huge shock to the market because the market generally has been pricing in at least one rate hike quarter point rate hike at the December meeting. And so I don't think it's that I think the market looks ahead. And I don't think that that news is necessarily disruptive to the whole. Yep, go ahead.
Speaker 4And John, just to note, too, you showed the December expectations. Yep, the expectations for rate hikes early in 2027 have also gone up.
Speaker 3Yeah, yeah. And it's kind of an ironic thing. I mean, it's, it's a complicated thing. It's not an easy relationship. The Fed controls short term rates, longer term interest rates, which arguably are the ones that matter most in the economy and refinancing and corporate debt and things like that. There, there is a plausible line of logic that if the Fed raises short term rates enough to take away meaningful worries about sticky inflation, that the long end of the curve can actually rally in terms of rates coming up. coming down and those longer term bonds rallying. That's kind of this dichotomy that people think Fed rate increases necessarily mean long term rates also go up. In fact, there could be a point and we might be getting close to that, depending how stern they seem to be about raising short term rates where that causes long term rates to drop because the market is then that much less worried about inflation being persistent. Of course, is the whole oil thing. And, you know, who knows what the headlines are day to day there. It's, you know, we're on for a big, big operation. We're not going to bomb anymore or whatever. So oil is a big wild card. They have oil prices have come off pretty dramatically in the last couple of weeks. And that's, you know, part was given some weakness in the oil energy stocks that caused us to take a defensive stop there. But, you know, it's hard. I don't think we we're not going to have a crystal ball to say exactly, but we'll see it in our indicators right now, though. We're seeing that breadth expand despite the. Inflation readings and things like that.
Speaker 4OK, Mike, I'm going to come to you in just a sec to walk through the latest on precious metals because we we had a potential. Important technical, what do you want to call it, formation form last week, want to check in on how that's doing before we do that, though, John. OK, so again, sounds like your default outlook and your default positioning right now is for the market to continue to. Rise into the end of the year. As you guys look to twenty twenty seven, what is New Harbor's general outlook for that market? You know, if you had to pick a word or a phrase to describe your expectations, what would it be?
Speaker 3Yeah, I mean, Adam, in a big way, we're holding our nose here. I mean, valuations are incredibly extreme. And we think that will happen at some point. We don't think where we are is sustainable for. You know, much longer, hard to put an actual date on it. I know that it's simple to answer the question about next year. I think there's a lot of good, you know, everything's a probability distribution right in terms of possibilities. Valuations are just one where the tender has been set. And what that spark is. And it'll probably be a complex, you know, nested series of different sparks that will maybe come out of left field or maybe something that we didn't expect. But, you know, there's still I mean, I kind of gave technology a little bit of a free pass. There's still a lot of troublesome things there. I think last week on that day of the sell off, I think there was also news of, for example, of a large European bank selling off a big portfolio of private credit loans. You know, you know, kind of a panic sale. And I think the market got a little spooked their core weave, which has been. A poster child for Jesus is this getting a little frothy, reported really strong results after the after the bill last night. So that's rallying pretty strong today. But I do think there is a, you know, the technology market isn't the only sector, but it is an important sector. It's what's drifted this market higher. I think if you start to see that, you know, if it rallies to some resistance and Peters out there, people start exiting. I think we could see, you know, a kind of cascading, a faltering underneath the surface of a surface of some of this breath that we've seen. And. You know, that could portend to a very challenging 2027. And it's not something we invite, but we're not we're not worried about it because we think we have an instrument panel that can help us through that. And it's all about staying mostly intact and being able to not just kind of scale backwards, but get back in when things are more conducive. And that's usually the hard thing, because our emotions typically tell us to do exactly the opposite in those scenarios. So I would not be surprised. We've been saying this. It's a long time as markets well overdue for some challenging times. And any time is is is is is possible for that to happen. And looking ahead to next year is certainly a candidate for that.
Speaker 4OK, yeah. And you talk about, you know, not giving tech a free pass here. It's a really interesting time with tech, because, as I've mentioned several times of late, if you look at things like demand for compute or, you know, the things that are being shipped to build the data centers. Demand is still just ferociously outstripping supply and you really would feel you would need to see some diminishment of those indicators to to really start to make the case that, OK, there's a there's a correction starting in the trade. That being said, it just does seem that there just keeps stacking risk upon risk upon risk upon risk in this space, whether it's. um you know the business models um increasingly getting cannibalized by you know these these open model free ai services whether it's concerns about circular financing um whether it is concerns about published public pushback which is definitely continuing to happen here whether it's concerned about the debt levels that these companies are taking on and whether they're going to be actually able to take on that much debt whether it's real world limits like permits and water and things available um uh skilled labor whether it's things like the head of nvidia being caught up in a spy ring you know i mean it's just there's an awful lot there and so um again not not not saying it's going to tip over anytime soon but you do have to look at this increased stacking of risks here um and and you know ask yourself okay what if they eventually what are many of these start to matter so there's obviously that that risk out there that risk out there um your sausage mcmuffin with egg
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Speaker 4for more info we talked earlier about the rogue wave of last thursday and talked about how it's probably in many ways quite emotionally driven but it also might not have been emotion or all emotion it could have been a big player or multiple big players who got caught off sides and then were forced into a liquidation you just mentioned one potential firm there john um and we don't necessarily know yet if that was the case or if it was who was it but i mean just speak to this the potential that what could have happened there was just literally some big guy found themselves on the wrong side of the trade and had to reverse it you know at whatever price they had to reverse that that that's what happens when volatility moves that much that quickly correct yeah
Speaker 3that's that's uh you know the time immemorial that's happened many times and oftentimes that happens in a very late stage of a very toppy market uh to be candid i mean if you look at the folks that are
Speaker 4super leveraged to it they take on too much risk right yeah
Speaker 3but you know one of the one of the most harmful things about these late stage markets is people have the recent memory of really strong gains they get shocked by these these downdrafts and they usually last very short and then they rally very sharply and that's probably what we're in store for here but it's that action that entraps people because they think it's over and actually if you go back to the tech bust if you go back to the housing bust this is what happens in major market topping processes you get these swift sell-offs you get this quick sigh of relief oh that thank god that's over you get this face ripping rally that has you thinking that is just an emotional driven thing and that's the process that starts the the decline and it gets this psychological psychological entrapment that's why we rely i mean mike we've been doing this a lot of time we've we've made every emotional stake in the in the in the book um that's why we rely so much on indicators to say hey human stupid human don't do what your emotions want you to do look at what the data is telling you and that will you know it's not going to be perfect but it helps keep you honest with what what the market's really doing not what you feel it's doing or or your emotions tell you to do or not to do um so yeah it's hard to say we'll see it come out uh if this is just the start of something in the in the form of a topping process um we'll see it in the data we believe all
Speaker 4right and i just want to note we had jim carson on last week and the arc that you just the potential arc that you just mentioned there john which is sort of you know the the pattern of history that's pretty much what jim is sticking his neck out saying i think that's what's going to happen in the next couple months which is positive capital flows into the markets for the end of the year a strong run to the end of the year and then really like the wheels coming off in q1 and he's kind of confident enough in his outlook that he's saying i think it's actually probably going to be january and in his mind he sees it as being a big and a sudden enough and big enough downdraft that not only will it be painful for investors but it'll be so painful that the fed perhaps even the treasury but the central planners are going to have to intervene um tbd we'll find out whether that prediction is right or wrong but it very much describes the arc of history that you just mentioned there john could you do me one thing too could you could you pull up that chart again um that reversal chart that you showed earlier so i just want to make one point you were saying that the one of the really big
Speaker 3risks this one here
Speaker 4right yes this one here so you were saying that one of the really big risks of um these late stage you know basically bubble markets is that everybody gets used to their recency bias that the momentum direction is always up and so they go further and further they lean further and further into risk and into speculation and then when these swift reversals happen it catches them all by surprise and just kind of kneecaps people so i just want to point out one thing so look at infotech right it was up what 30 plus 31 as of october 5th yeah there we go and then down to not just 9.5 in a matter of just 30 days right yeah i mean you're watching that in disbelief if you've been in that space saying oh my god i was having a phenomenal year and now you know more than two-thirds of my return has just evaporated right and then healthcare
Speaker 3for example suddenly be become you know far better performer than tech right a sector that was dead money most of last year for example right right a
Speaker 4month ago was only up what nine percent or something like that relative to 31 yeah um but the point i want to make is okay so you can look at infotech and you can say um yeah okay it was a hot sector people who were heavily exposed there they were kind of the speculators you know they took their risk they're getting burned um but because markets have been doing so well annually for much of the past you know decade and a half but certainly certainly since 2022 they've been up almost 20 every year um a lot of regular people have increased their equity exposure in their portfolios and we've talked about that that portfolios generally have the highest percent equity exposure ever and very concerningly that that ratio is the highest in the boomers who should actually have the lowest equity exposure right now but they've gotten used to that recency bias you were talking about and the danger to that sorry pull that back up a little bit but i think that's a good point i think that's a good point sorry pull that back up oh sorry i was just about to make my key point here okay sorry about that yeah so if you were you know all in ai stocks and taking on that risk well you you were asking for it to a certain extent but to the the boomer who just says yeah i'm not i'm not a crazy speculator i'm just going to invest in you know safe s p index look what happened to you over the past month right your return basically got cut in half you thought you were in a much more safe much more diversified uh general index but because the ai sector now makes up such a huge part of the s p you're extremely exposed to it whether you
Speaker 3really know or not info tech and communication services both of which had the most extreme reversals here those together as of about a few weeks ago i think was 48 almost 50 of the s p so people that think they're diversified and don't need to pay attention they became very very heavily invested in that sector
Speaker 4that's my whole point which is that people are more exposed to equities than they ever have been in history which you can say look that's maybe taken on more risk than you should especially if you're older and stocks are much more levered to the speculative sectors than they've ever been pretty much in history so that that's the key point i wanted to make here you can take this down john but the the point i was making to mike last week when we were watching all this happen in real time was to say hey look you know this might be a one-day event things might equilibrate from here recover a bit that seems to see what we're happening but i was like take the take the discomfort that you're feeling right now today as you're watching the markets melt down and you're looking at your portfolio taking it on the chin and use that as a way to to look at 2027 and say wait a minute if this is potentially the start of something that could build steam next year what can i do today to make myself less vulnerable what can i do to reduce my odds of suffering this type of panic just at a greater magnitude next year and so i just want to underscore that especially while people are still overly exposed to equities versus historical norms
Speaker 3yeah and a great way to do that is bring it back to your own financial plan you know you're not investing to make it in the newspapers or on cnbc or hopefully not to boast your neighbors but to provide for stability for what you need and unless you know how well off you are relative to your needs you're not going to have the clarity to kind of encourage to de-risk because you might think that you need to take the risk because you're still far off from getting there so to speak and bring it back to your own situation it's hard to do but it really really
Speaker 4important to do yeah and i just want to remind people you see this all the time you know everybody I talked to on that Thursday was like a deer in the headlight, right? Oh my gosh, I don't know what's going on. I don't know what to do. I don't know if I want to sell here because it might bounce to my right. You just get into that paralysis. Again, fortunately, that seemed to have been a one-day event. But if this starts to be a cascading event at some point, as you see, people get stuck in that deer in the headlight as it's going on. And then they start doing the bargaining. Well, okay, well, if it goes up, then I'll sell. Please, Lord, let the market recover next week. And I promise I'll sell, right? And you get trapped in that paralysis. If it's a cascade, as it gets lower and lower and lower, you get more and more scared. But again, you feel like, well, I can't sell here because it's now gone down so much. Surely it's going to go up tomorrow and then it doesn't, right? So remember that fear, use it as a powerful motivator. And as John said, everybody always talks about beating the market. That's sort of the mindset most people have, especially regular investors. I just want to do as well as the S&P or better. That's not your as an investor. As John said, your objective is to define what your financial goals are and when you want to hit them and then say, how can I hit that goal by the time I want to hit it with the least amount of risk? And you might not need to pursue nearly as much annual risk as the general market does, right? You might only need a 5% annual return based upon where you are right now versus when you want to hit your goal. And then it might make a lot more sense to do that in safe bonds. You'd have to do that in a safe way. You'd have to do that in a very bond heavy portfolio and just make sure you lock in and hit your goal and can sleep at night, not worrying about market gyrations, right? You're nodding as I'm saying this, John, but this is such a hard light bulb to turn on in people's heads because they always have this thing of like, well, no, if the market's returning X, I need to get at least that. And it's like, no, you don't, especially because you're taking on a much higher degree of risk to do that. And if you don't need to, you're putting your future at risk.
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Speaker 3Yep. And combine that with the reality that risk isn't always the same. There are times where the market is objectively more risky than others. And it's a complicated thing, but that's the reality. That's how markets work in real life. They don't work like the textbooks tell you they work. There is a thing called dynamic risk and reward, and that's critically important to understand.
Speaker 4Okay. And I don't want to put words in your mouth, so correct this if it's not correct, but looking at 2027, based upon what you said a few minutes ago, and just from talking to you every week, your risk assessment for 2027 versus potential return is pretty high, right?
Speaker 3Yeah. And it's present now. There's a reason why Mike mentioned our indicators are really leaning towards green, but we probably won't go more than 50% in equities. That's in respect of the backdrop that is very ugly from a fundamental standpoint.
Speaker 4Okay. All right, Mike. So give us an update on what's happening in precious metals. Memory serves right. It looked like the price of gold had put in what's called an island reversal, which tends to be a very bullish indicator. Is that still holding in? I know that the metals have had some good days, had some bad days. Since last week. Obviously, the high CPI read didn't help.
Speaker 5Yeah, that was a little bit of a surprise. Gold and silver are hanging on by their fingernails, let's put it that way. And just one more little point there. John said we'll probably go up to 50% equities here max, at least right now, given the macro backdrop. It's true, but we have more levers. We've got more variables than just equities. I guess I'd remind viewers that we also have gold, silver, bullion. And mining, which is about 11.5% in our model. So what happens to gold and silver? Getting to the answer to your question is very important to what happens to our results. And so the market looks like it's healing, and it looks like everything's flipping into green there, at least on our indicators. But gold and silver are just hanging in here, just hanging on by their fingernails. So let's take a look at the charts. There has indeed been what I would consider an island reversal. This is the daily chart of GLD. These three days that happened last week. One, two, three. Gapped down into those three days. And actually, let me zoom in. We gapped down, traded sideways for three days, took out the July lows, gapped up. This so far has been an island reversal as long as this low holds. I guess if this gap ends up filling, then I guess it's not an island anymore. But right now, it's an island. Gold is down about, it looks about $30 right now. So it's been pretty weak the last couple days. Yesterday was a CPI surprise. Look what that did. That knocked it down. Now, I'll talk about a few other factors besides just the chart of gold and silver in a minute. I want to talk about the dollar as well. In fact, maybe we'll just take a look at the dollar really quickly here. The dollar has been strong. I think it's something worth noting here. This is the daily chart of the dollar that's now broken out of, you could even say, a cup and handle base, up at $103. Now, last week, you and I were on with Brent Johnson. He said one of the things that he's concerned about is dollar. Brent Johnson said one of the things that he's concerned about is dollar. And he said, furthermore, if it gets up to $108 or $110, he thinks bad things could happen. I'm not so sure. I think we're going to go to $108 or $110. Here's a weekly chart. But we have a kind of a big breakout here now, or at least threatening the breakout of that week, if we go a little higher into $103.50 or something. I'm saying all of this because the dollar can be a short-term headwind to gold. And so the CPI was strong. The CPI came out stronger than expected. That means the rate hike expectations go up, like John just pointed out. And when the market thinks that rates are going up, then the value of the dollar goes up because money flows into the dollar. So that could be short-term what's pushing gold down these last couple of days. I think that the dollar could go up and gold could still go up. There's some precedent in the last couple of weeks for the last couple of years for that. But short-term, that could explain why we're down here the last couple of days. But still, the island persists. Let's take a quick look at silver. Same thing there. What a long pullback it's been. I mean, I just, I really feel for people in this trade, we're in this trade. It's tough. Nine plus months, 60% on silver. And yet it too has some signs of a bottom. Zooming in on the day, take a look at here.
Speaker 4Mike, let me just mention one thing, given what you said. You guys have been, have had a long time exposure to the precious metals and the miners. I just don't want folks to get the impression that you were buying a lot back early this year. I don't want folks to get the impression that you were buying a lot back early this year. Back then, you guys were very cautious about the blow-off top that was going off.
Speaker 5Oh, yeah. We've had, our exposure goes back several, many years, in fact. So we did not buy the top. In fact, we did some slight trimming and rebalancing around the top. Looking back, I wish we did more. I wish we did more. This pullback is deeper than we thought. And we've had a 10-ish to maybe 12% position through that. And we kept rebalancing down to that a few times. So we did sell some there, but it was far from perfect. And this pullback is deeper than we thought. Having said that, there's the three-day island in silver. Let's see if that gap can persist. I mean, I guess technically the gap may have been already filled in silver, but let's see if this is the low. As long as these lows stand, we have a chance of going higher. Take a look at the weekly. I mean, it's just been really brutal, this downturn. We took out those July lows. But the good news is we're starting to notice some of the gold stocks, some of the leading gold stocks, have huge relative performance. Take a look at Royal Gold, which I think is the second largest streaming company, RGLD. I was noticing this chart the other day. Look at that nice base. And then, boom, we broke out of a recent high. And so we're challenging the January highs on Royal Gold, all while gold and silver are down in the doldrums. So we're starting to see some really good action in some of the gold mining stocks. Let's see if we can do that. And then, of course, we're going to keep those islands hold. And we can talk about it next week. Right now, it looks positive. And we could see a big move in the metals in a relatively short period of time. I hope we see it. But the truth is, the market's doing everything possible to try to get people out of the trade and to throw in the towel.
Speaker 4That's what it's been doing. Well, you know, what's interesting is you talked about the headwinds that are going on here in terms of we've had rising bond yields pretty much all year. Generally, a headwind to gold, right, when real rates go up because gold doesn't pay a yield, it makes gold look less attractive on a relative basis. You then have the Fed coming out and saying, look, I'm going to make that even worse because we're going to be hiking rates going forward. Now, the market expects even more rate hikes than it did a week ago. And then, of course, there's the dollar strength. All those three things traditionally place a headwind on gold. So two questions for you. One, one, it may actually look at Gold's at least resilient so far to keep the $4,000 an ounce line, pretty impressive in that type of environment. And secondly, you got to imagine, at some point, we'll enter a phase where the dollar weakens, we'll enter a phase where the Fed starts cutting rates. That should all of a sudden then flip those headwinds into tailwinds for the precious metals. So to a certain extent, you could just say your job as a precious metals investor right now is just to hang in there until the storm ends. And again, the winds switch from blowing in your face to start blowing at your back.
Speaker 5Absolutely. Hold your position. Hold your position at a size that you can hold it financially and psychologically. And we've said this throughout the weeks and even months now. It's a moment of somewhat faith in the trade. And that's a hard thing to say. That's kind of a dirty word in investing. And you can't have faith. You can't hold your position if your position is too big and certainly not if you're levered. So have a position. We're 11.5%, like I said, in our model. Something that we don't like to see being down because this pullback has cost us a few percentage points in performance. But have a position that you can let the trade work because we are holding on to those lows by our fingernails here. And the market is designed to just push you out on the smallest of moves sometimes. And we could see reversals that happen pretty quickly. And yeah, we're holding that $4,000, $4,100 line, a dollar per ounce in gold while the dollar is up. And I don't know if it's going higher to that $106 or $108 level that Brent talked about being a caution point. But it's been an up market, up interest rates, or up dollar, I'm sorry. And so, yeah, if those things stabilize or reversed, it could be a tailwind all of a sudden. And there could be some short covering. I don't think we've seen short covering yet in gold and silver. And once that starts, you could see several hundred dollars an ounce quickly. I think gold's got to get above $4,400, $4,500 for us to say, the coast is more clear that the bottom is likely in. And that's several hundred points higher. But that could happen quickly
Speaker 4with some kind of short
Speaker 5cover.
Speaker 4So, I just want to make two points on this. And then I'm going to ask you to pull up the chart of Bitcoin, Mike. So, with the price being where it is, and who knows if it's going to go lower, right? But if you believe that the precious metals have better days ahead of them in coming years, then you can obviously look at the current price action as perhaps a bit of a gift, right? And we talk all the time about the importance of dollar cost averaging. So, if you're not already doing a dollar cost averaging plan, you might want to consider looking into one now for that reason, and just put these potentially lower prices versus where you think they're going to be in the future to work for you, kind of lock in your future gains now, as it will. And I just want to share a tweet. That came across X today from a fellow who I'm going to be interviewing in a couple of days, a guy named Dominic Frisby, who's in the UK.
Speaker 1I'm going to be interviewing him in a couple of days.
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Speaker 4But here is kind of his reason for just remaining bullish on the precious metals at this period. So to his reason in a nutshell. I'm just going to read this real quick. In 1980, U.S. government debt was about a third of GDP. Today, it's over 120%. Paul Volcker took interest rates close to 20% to save the dollar. It hurt, but it worked because the debt pile was small enough to survive it. That can't happen today. At 20% today, just the interest bill would end up bigger than everything Washington collects in tax. Many calculate that once you add the contingent liabilities, the debt is near 200% of GDP. Rates can't go high enough to defend the dollar, which means money printing. That's why I own gold. I'm not saying you have to necessarily agree with Dominic there, folks, but that is a very simple, straightforward rationale for expecting further priced evaluation and purchasing power of the U.S. dollar versus assets like gold. And I understand it. So if that resonates with you, hopefully that helps you take some comfort no matter what the gold price is today. Given these factors, it's probably likely going to be a lot higher. Now, that being said, if you're proven right here, right, if you hold your gold or you buy gold here and it dramatically appreciates for the reasons that Dominic mentions here, it's not necessarily a fun reason to have the price of your gold go up because it just means that the purchasing power of our currency is really getting destroyed to the downside. John, you nodded a lot while I was saying that. Just wanted to see if you wanted to comment on that.
Speaker 3Yeah, I think that logic is really, I mean, Mike talked a lot about the short term technicals, which are kind of ugly and hanging by their fingernails, like you mentioned. But the bigger picture backdrop is we think is very important to understand. And, you know, the, you know, the debt load, I mean, it's right. I mean, what likely is going to happen? And Ray Dalio has looked at us over centuries, you know, different empires that became, you know, maybe abused the privilege of being the reserve currency, the Dutch or the Portuguese, Spanish, French, Britain. You know, you get to a point where you can't service that debt and you don't default on it. You figure out a way to inflate it away. And that's exactly why we think longer term precious metals are going to be an important hedge, even if they're a bumpy one on shorter term time frames. But we agree completely with that, that kind of lens to kind of understand the situation. And, you know, I think that's very, very great comment you brought up there, Adam.
Speaker 4All right. Thanks. Well, and I went to it because Mike talked about how it's almost sort of a faith moment for gold and silver. And I just wanted to explain or provide a rationale, which it's not like, you know, faith in the unknown. There's actually really good fundamental reasons to have confidence that things will move in the direction that you guys think they will. What's the timeline for that going to be? It's unknowable, folks here, right? But it's not just sort of crossing your fingers that this magically, this asset just magically has better days ahead of it. There is, you know, really good concrete base level reasons to have that expectation. Whether it gets fulfilled or not, we're just going to see. And that's why we have you guys track this on a daily basis for us. Okay, Mike, just wanted to move to Bitcoin for a moment because Bitcoin is, you know, largely positioned as one of these other assets that should be a good play on the devaluation of fiat currency. It's been really struggling, I mean, all year. But particularly in the past week or so, it's gotten beat up even more so than the precious metals. And just curious if you guys have an opinion on that. I know that Bitcoin is something that you guys have held in small amounts at time. I don't know if it's in your portfolio at the current moment. So feel free to opine on that in any way you think is relevant. Yeah, it's not in there right now.
Speaker 5We talk about it a lot. We debated a lot even. And we do acknowledge that Bitcoin is a very important asset. And we do acknowledge that Bitcoin has proven itself over the years to be a store of value, a digital store of value. Now, I think we view it as an asset that's similar to gold and silver and don't really feel like we have to have a position at all or a big position, certainly, because of our position in gold and silver. We've got an 11.5% position. Now, that moment of kind of faith that you talked about, that's not to say that we don't or one can't do anything. We can and we have changed the mix towards more bullion than miners, which has happened recently over the last few months when bullion showed better relative strength than miners. That flips back and forth. And so you can change that. You can change your overall allocation. We certainly do. But we also have the belief that we should have some amount for the most part. We don't see any real reason to trade technically or tactically out of a core position, is what I was trying to say. And with Bitcoin, I know there's a lot of people out there that say, well, Bitcoin is my core position. I say that's fine. If you believe that, that's fine. I'm not really arguing that. I think that Bitcoin, gold and silver will all do really well over the next couple of years. So let me show a chart of Bitcoin. I'm going to show it on point and figure charting because I think it's the easiest way to see the long term. This is a 10 year chart of Bitcoin going back to 2015. Right here, you can see where it's 73,705 as of the last print. So point and figure charting shows boxes of Xs or columns of Xs when it's going up, columns of Os when it's going down. So here at 73,000, you can go over to the left and you could say, and there's people all over X pointing this out, that, hey, Bitcoin's at 74,000. Well, guess what? Back in 2021, five plus years ago, it was at 74,000, which is true. That's basically gone nowhere, for five years. It's kind of cherry picking the timeframe though. I could say that at the bottom, to March of 2009, the S&P was the same price, 666, as it was back in 1996, which is also true, right? So the S&P went nowhere for 13 years. Didn't mean it wasn't a good buy at the bottom in 2009. So just because we've gone nowhere for five years doesn't mean that this is not a good buy. But from my eye, we seem to have an inverse head and shoulders base here that broke out back a while ago. And this is what was, I think, frustrating to a lot of people is that we went from 65,000 to 125,000, a nice breakout of this inverse head and shoulders. And we've now erased all of that. We came down here, remember, we were at 60,000 a couple of months ago when everyone was saying, oh, well, the four-year cycle isn't complete because we got to go all the way down to whatever it was, 30,000 or 40,000. And nobody knows if that was actually going to happen. But it turned out that at least so far, 60K was the. And so we came up to 85,000. This little nine here signifies in September, the ninth month that we broke this double top and everything looks great. But since then, we had just fallen. Now, let me go over to a shorter chart of IBID, which is probably one of the most popular ETFs that tracks this. It's easier to see the daily. We were watching the 47 level or so on IBID. This is 40. Let me just move that down to 47. We were looking at a break. We were looking at a break out here. But to potentially add it, we talked about it. We decided not to because we've got a good position in gold and silver. In hindsight, I'm kind of glad we didn't sell it. We didn't add it there because we'd probably be at levels here that we'd be thinking about taking a risk control sale. So here's the short term I think you're talking about. It's been really, really disappointing. And until we get back up to 47 on IBID, which going back to the other chart was Bitcoin, then I probably wouldn't touch it, particularly if you've got gold and silver. I mean, if you want to have a small position, we say this to clients, this is probably a good place to put it in there. But if you've already got a lot of bullion, like so many of our clients do, I don't think you've got to do it. But for those who are looking for a tactical position, see if we can get back above 84,000 Bitcoin, 47 IBID. And then from there, if it's not another fake out like this one, then I think we can make a run for the top over the next year and maybe go to 150K or something like that. And then if we're not able to make a run for the top over the next year, then we can If gold and silver work out to our targets, which would be something like 6,000 plus gold, a new high on silver, 150 plus in the next couple of years, then you likely will see Bitcoin up at 150 as well. So it's kind of how we see it. It's bullish, but it's not for everybody.
Speaker 4And just it's a lot more volatile, too. All right. Well, I really appreciate you walking through that. And you answered the question I was going to follow up with is what would you need to see to start getting tactically bullish on it? Sounds like back up to the 84,000 range or so. And I guess, folks, all I'll say is if you have reasons to have confidence in the long term future of Bitcoin, just like I walked through Dominic Frisbee's logic around gold, maybe use some of these lower prices right now to your advantage and have a similar dollar cost average program there. OK, John, I'm going to let you wrap up here rather than me get on my normal soapbox and remind people that the end of the day is coming. I'm going to let you wrap up here rather than me get on my normal soapbox and remind people that the end of the year is approaching really fast. And so better to move sooner than later in terms of having a conversation with your financial advisor about all the things that you should be doing coming into the end of the year. I thought I'd let you make that pitch today.
Speaker 3Yeah, we've got a lot of open actions that we're systematically checking off. Folks know that we're running short on the timeline for taking required minimum distributions. Big penalty if you don't take your required minimum distribution. If you're under 50% tax penalty on that piece. So really important that you do that. And Roth conversions are something that we're doing a lot of analysis for folks right now. It can be a smart way to kind of take advantage of filling up a lower tax bracket that you might be in and getting money into a thereafter tax-free Roth IRA. Very smart tax arbitrage, I would describe it. These are the kind of things that are important to kind of be on top of. And, you know, we work through it pretty systematically with our clients and our to-do list is getting shorter by the day, which is fulfilling for us and our clients.
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Speaker 4Okay. All right. Well, hopefully folks take you up on the wisdom of contacting you sooner and getting things lined up. And obviously folks that also applies to, if you're not an existing client of theirs, but you'd like to take them up on the free consultations I'm going to mention in just a moment. You know, getting that information sooner so you can act on it by the end of the year, obviously has a lot of value. But whether or not folks take you guys up on that or not, or their financial advisors up on that or not, John, I'm going to say something that I can kind of guess I'll probably be repeating between now and the end fantastic time. Highly recommend everybody disconnect from all the technology, all the headlines and everything, and just spend real quality time with family. While you are doing that though, that is a great opportunity to engage with your family on financial planning for both the year ahead and just for your life ahead, right? So if you haven't had some of the conversations around estate planning and how you want to have assets distributed once you're gone or not able to manage it yourself, whether it's just setting expectations for what you might want to do for your family. In other words, if you have children as they enter adulthood, you might want to help them with getting into a house or things like that. My wife is a couples therapist, as most folks know, and most of the issues around money in a relationship are just like most of the issues around money in a relationship. Most of the other issues in a relationship, they come down to communication. It's usually poor communication or miscommunication that creates the friction in the relationships down the road. So these times with family are just an opportunity to really just set expectations well, get everything on the table, make it all clear what you're willing to do, what you're not willing to do, what you hope to do, what your dreams are, and try to turn it into a family plan, right? Okay, this is sort of what we're all gunning to, and hopefully we'll all play our role in making that happen. And then lastly, you know, the old expression to fail to plan is to plan to fail. We talk about the importance of creating a financial plan and updating on a regular basis. If you don't have one or you haven't updated yours in a while, this excess time that we have at the holidays is a really good opportunity to sit down and really just sort of try to, you know, both do a review of where you are, but really set your objectives for the year ahead so that, you know, once the time is up, you know, you're ready to move on to the next step in your life and not figuring all that out later on down the road. So key point here is enjoy all the time with your family, but use the time wisely as well, financially. With that being said, gentlemen, John, Mike, anything else going on this week that we haven't talked about yet that's worth talking about, or should we just pick it up next week?
Speaker 5I think we can just talk next week, Adam. I think we've had a great session here. Thank you. Yep.
Speaker 3Great with that, Adam. Thank you. Always great to be with you. And thank you to your viewers for tuning in with us. We know time is valuable. Hope you found some time to do that.
Speaker 4All right. Well, I really do continue to enjoy these deep dives with you guys on a monthly basis. Audience, I think you do too, but let us know your comments in the comments section below, because we always like to do more of the things you like and less of the things that you don't want. But please join me, folks, in thanking John and Mike for giving us so much time and detail and attention today. So do that by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below, as well as that little bell icon right next to it. And then lastly, if you would like to have a conversation with us, please do so. All right. And everybody else, thanks so much for watching. We'll see you next time.
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