The Week: Immigration Reform, Burnham And The Budget

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. Hello, one of the first news programs that I really, really loved as a nerdy news obsessed teenager was the World at One on Radio 4. Ah, yeah, you get it, one o'clock. That program turned 60 this week and there were celebrations around that at the BBC. So we thought we would get Sarah Montague, World at One host, back into the newscast studio to be in the mix for when we discuss some of the big political stories of the week just gone. So you will hear her and some other friends of the podcast on this episode of Newscast. - Newscast. - Newscast from the BBC. That boy slid on me in the classroom doing our violin lessons. I was the tattletale in the class. Can I have an apology, please? I trust almost nobody. That daddy has to sometimes do strong language. Next time in Moscow. I filled a lulu with no solulu. Take me down to Downey Street. Let's go have a tour. Blimey. Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio. It's Joe in the studio. Faisal in the studio. And welcome back, Sarah Montague from the World at One. Hello, Sarah. Hello. And happy birthday to the World at One, which is 60. It is. It is indeed. We've been celebrating quite a lot in recent weeks, including a little party. We did have a little party with some celebs, not this one. Let's set about that the better. Do you know what I realized? We didn't have that Faisal. Yeah, I did attend all the big names. That's good. I bet he talks about his interview with the CEO of Google again. I don't know what I realized, though, when when newscast is 60 years old, I'll be a hundred, you know, be in 2080. OK, a telegram from someone. What what a year that will be. You may have noticed Chris Mason is not amongst us. That's because he is flying right now to South Africa with the Prime Minister for the G20 summit, but he left us a little message. Hello, newscasters from the airport. I am heading off on the Prime Minister's plane with a bunch of load of reporters rattling around in the back to South Africa to the G20. So a gathering of the 20 largest economies, or at least most of them. It's a bit of a smorgasbord of countries, really, but that's kind of the point. As the discussion rages, doesn't it, back here at home about migration, we saw Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, saying what she was saying in an interview with me into the House of Commons earlier in the week. And she's had more to say today, so plenty for the gang in the studio to chew over. Tomorrow, once we get to Johannesburg, I'll have a chance to sit down on camera with the Prime Minister, still thinking through what I might ask him, I suspect migration might feature. And then for Kerstarma, a day of diplomacy on Saturday, meeting plenty of world leaders, particularly a focus on those from the Indo-Pacific and from Africa, and trying to make the argument that he always does because he gets the heat from people saying it's never here, Kier, or he is never here, Kier, about what he thinks he can bring back home in terms of investments and jobs from these kinds of jobs. I will talk to you soon, better go and check in. Thank you, Chris. Joe, I'll talk to you about Shabana Mahmood and immigration in a second. But Faisal, just explain why that word "Schmorgersboard" is being used all the time in politics this week. Well, I guess that there's the... I can think of a couple of links. There is a reference to the fact that there isn't one big central meal of a potential tax rise and there's little bits and bobs. I don't know if it's a technicals-danger term. -Picky bits. -Yes, exactly. -It's a pick-out and the... -Or some market use of that. -Maybe not so... -Just on social media. Maybe not so coherent as an overall transformative package-stroke meal in terms of the budget. But there's also a sort of Danish vibe there, which has got something to do with the immigration. Yeah, so basically, "Schmorgersboard" is what the treasury sources have been saying Rachel Reeves is going to do with the tax rise. There's lots of little picky tax rises as opposed to one massive one, like income tax, but then the Danish reference, as we've discussed on previous episodes of "Newscast" in the last few weeks, is Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, borrowing some things from Denmark's immigration policy. She did that on Monday when it came to changes to the asylum system. What she was doing today on Thursday was slightly different because it was changing the way that migrants to the UK can earn the right to stay here permanently. Exactly, Adam. Settles status indefinitely leave for a main. It allows somebody to live in the UK permanently, work without restrictions, access public services. And it's a big step towards British citizenship. And that weight is currently five years. Shabana Mahmood today saying people have to wait 10 years. And so that qualifying period increasing will affect 2.6 million people who've arrived in this country since 2021. A huge number of people. And that jump from 5 to 10 could be even more, or slightly less, depending on what you do when you are here, how you contribute to society or how you claim benefits. So if you claim under 12 months' worth of benefits, that 10-year period, as it would be after these proposals, goes to 15. But if you claim more than 12 months' worth of benefits, you jump all the way up to 20. The sort of less-than-subtle message from the Home Office, Adam, seems to be, "Do not claim benefits." And also, you can get settled status quicker if you work for the NHS when you come to the UK. And also, if you're an entrepreneur or a person creating lots of economic value. I mean, it's interesting, isn't it? Because it's a complicated system, particularly also with the sort of the Monday announcements for asylum seekers, made more complicated, it seems, by this sort of... Presumably, they're going to have to come up with some sort of matrix of, you know, these are your sort of bonuses for the things that you do, which will reduce the time it takes to get to settle status. But it's all about the Boris wave, isn't it? Well, it's interesting you said that word. So this is the idea of the huge wave of immigration that came to the UK after COVID, while Boris Johnson was still Prime Minister. And actually, that word, "Boris wave," started off being a sort of quite very right-wing sort of social media word. Then Nigel Farage started using it, and then kind of more centre-right commentators started using it. And now you've got the Home Secretary adopting that word in the House of Commons. Answering your point, Sarah, about the complexity of these proposals, I think the hope within Shabana Mood's team is that the public voters' newscasts see a sort of broad brush picture, which is Shabana Mood is going to be much tougher than even if that Cooper was on immigration. And that perhaps that message will also, or as much more difficult task, get through to people wanting to come to this country and then start to change behaviour. But you're right, it is incredibly complicated. And does the Home Office have the mastery of administration to make all this stuff happen? Because historically, of course, they have failed again and again on this sort of stuff. I recall just before the Brexit referendum, that Boris Johnson famously did a press conference saying that you could have an amnesty for immigration. But obviously, the perception was that people didn't vote for, well, certainly not these levels. But I always remember like, okay, when people made the claim of Brexit, they definitely meant this. I definitely remember that because also they're trying to appeal to sort of South Asian heritage voters as well, saying, hang on, we can have more people like you or your relatives than East Europeans. There's a lot of things going on. But yes, obviously the pattern of migration and the amount of migration usually changed as a result of that. Because it kicks in for anyone arriving after 2021 because of this big bulge that's coming through, who will suddenly be eligible what after 2026 or would have been and now won't be. And then talking of complexities, there's then a separate category for people who came on the health and social care visa in 2021 and 2022. They'll have different roles. And again, talking about the complexities that Sarah was mentioning, back to the Monday announcement about toughening up the asylum process and basically making asylum a temporary status where the government every two and a half years will almost look at every single asylum seekers right to be here and decide whether they should be deported back to their home country because it's become safe in that period. That's quite a lot of extra work. It is in the refugee council estimate hundreds of millions of pounds will be needed to do all of that administration. They also say the Denmark example isn't that wise to use because the differences between the two countries are significant, partly because the English language is one sort of pull factor for this country, but also the historic links from what we now call the Commonwealth, how leads to people from certain countries around the world wanting to come to this country. And of course, Shabana Mood has already found it tricky with some labor backbenchers to get them on board with these plans, which is partly why I think the language she's using, the emotive case is certainly at the fore. And the more sort of the more punchy communicators in the government in particular with regards to immigration, something like Mike Tapp, he's not been as as as visible this week because they realised that I think the initial target audience is labor MPs. And you just sort of softer because they need to get this past the votes, presumably in parliament. Some of it. Yeah, but it's interesting that this sort of the tightrope they're walking because they need to get it past a vote. But a lot of the policy seems to be an and arguably it's like the Conservatives with the Rwanda policy. It's if we have a very tough policy, that'll stop people coming. And then we won't actually need to deploy all the things. And I mean, it's interesting what you say about it's not the same as Denmark. They're relying on the fact that Denmark's the arrivals in Denmark dropped by what 40% in the way it was. There's something quite interesting. There was a conference where the Prime Minister launched the digital ID plan. It was like a progressive all the centre left and left. And there was a panel there, which very few people attended, I think, and they had the Danish minister on one side. And then they had the Spanish minister on the other side, also centre left. Totally opposite policy. Embracing migration from South America actually and North Africa as well. Using that to sell a story of workers to foreign investors and a green and a sort of green investment. Things sort of easier with the Spanish sun. And I was really struck. I was really struck by the sort of spectrum of centre left opinion in Europe. And you could see, and I forget which UK minister was there at that point. You could see them just wanting to go for the Danish option. But obviously, I think backbenchers will think, well, there are centre left governments and the Spanish prime ministers managed to stay in office for several years, possibly even a decade. I don't know exactly how much. You know, thinking, well, there are other avenues if you choose to make a different politics. And this feeds back into who are you fighting against? Who is Labour if they can get back up in the polls? Where are they going to win those votes from? Are they going to win them from reform voters? Are they going to win them from Green Party voters? Are they going to win them? You know, it's a very interesting fundamental. Politics has gone mad in a way, hasn't it? It's trying to work out what's going on. A bit scrambled. But I just remember an episode we did a couple of weekends ago with our colleague Ian Watson, political correspondent, who had been to Denmark to see how the Danish system operated. And then he got a briefing from the Home Office that they were looking at the Danish system. And lo and behold, we've got a very Danish-esque system. And one of the things he said that's lodged in my mind that the Danish centre left politicians say is that by being tough on immigration, it created space for them to do progressive things that their base and their supporters want to do. And I just keep thinking about that when you listen to interviews with Shabana Mahmood this week, like the one Nick Robinson did on political thinking, available to download now on BBC Science, where she says she is doing this to stop the rise of racism. Because if you get this wrong, you will create the conditions for there to be more racism. In other words, she's doing this for progressive ends, which is to reduce racism. Except there has been a huge amount of criticism of her from some quarters on that, saying, look, racism is wrong in and of itself. And you should put the policy you want forward because it's the right policy rather than linking it to racism. It's absolutely fascinating. She's making no bones about it that she thinks. What was the thing that she said about returning? I'm afraid we're turning into little Englanders. But then she got praise from Zia Youssef, former chair of reform and now the head of policy. He tweeted on four o'clock on Thursday afternoon, "Whatever you think of Shabana Mahmood, she's making every Tory home secretary of the last two decades look like the deadbeat, low agency losers they are." Quite a lot to unpack in that tweet. But let's focus on the fact that Shabana Mahmood is getting all this praise from kind of potentially unlikely places. Including Tommy Robinson. I think it's partly, Adam, because of the authenticity she's tried to display. Certainly the words about her, the own racism she's experienced on Monday were pretty striking. Got a lot of media attention. But also that she seems to be trying to make this sort of compassionate community cohesion point towards Labour MPs. She's also saying if you think that people crossing the channel is a problem and every political party seems to think it is, what's your alternative? But also using reform and Nigel Farage as you've intimated Adam, as a sort of, for Labour MPs at least, a sort of bogeyman. Like, if you're not going to be on my side, who's side are you on? If we don't sort this out, look at the polls. Nigel Farage looks like he could be the next Prime Minister. And that'll make things more difficult. And there have been signs of a rebellion here. But it's not that significant yet, although of course these things could change. Well, I just note that the Danes, the Social Democrats and Danes, they lost Copenhagen for the first time in 100 years. To whom? To Green Left. You know, these things, everyone looks at one axis in politics. It's kind of goes in four or five different directions. And I wonder if that argument, I mean, you will know, Joe, how much that argument is being made within the Labour Party? It's definitely being made. Because I mean, one of the people who spoke out very, very quickly about these proposals was Rachel Maskell, who's been, of course, a rebel before York MP to the left of Labour, but has been at points a pretty sort of mainstream left voice or a soft left voice. And she was talking about Zach Polanski in her university city. The Greens are a threat and there are lots of people in Labour who think that after the May elections, including elections in London, where it's possible that the Lib Dems and Greens do well, but the sort of narrative about who the threat is may change from right to left. And then in terms of the Tories, they say they'll support Labour on lots of these measures on asylum and on legal migration. They say they would go further. And I wonder if maybe in a few years time, previous Home Secretaries, rather than what Zia Yousaf said, will maybe get a bit more credit because it does look like net migration is going to fall quite a lot over the next few years on the basis of changes to the visa system over the last few years. But then maybe that's me taking a very charitable scientific view of how politics works. In terms of Shabana Mahmood, I mean, it's so interesting because it feels like she's had a sort of meteoric rise, but she was demoted once in a Labour Party reshuffled a few years ago. And then Sarah, when she was Justice Secretary, she wasn't coming on the world at one every day, was she? But yeah, this week she's been everywhere as Home Secretary. It is quite interesting that. I mean, and I don't know, is it too cynical to tie it to what happened last week? Because we had a lot of West Street-ing. We've had a lot of Shabana Mahmood. We've even had quite a bit of Andy Burnham suddenly popping up again this week. Why are these the politicians that are suddenly in the frame and we're talking about? The numbers were always going to come down from the extremely high numbers that in those two years, wasn't there, where there were a lot of refugees? There were people coming from Hong Kong. There were people coming from Ukraine. There would be no one during COVID at all, really. Yeah. Yeah. Yes, exactly. So there's some sort of weird statistical quirks there, but it was always going to be the case that it was going to come down. And there are some policies. So we will get back to the sort of hundreds of thousands. And there's another reason, which we saw in the figures, which is there are more people going. Yeah. So suddenly net migration comes down for, you know, not just because there are fewer coming. Is that okay? Is that what they want? Well, Faisal, do you know lots of talented entrepreneurs who've relocated to Dubai in last year? Other countries are available. Yes. No, I do see that. And that does bring in a different angle on this, because I have been on trips with the Chancellor in the USA, where I've seen speeches where we want to attract all the talent. You can employ the people you want to when you invest in the UK. Some even seeking to take strategic advantage out of the fact that the Trump administration has cracked down on foreign tech visas, the H1B visas charging six-figure sums at one point. I forget where they are on that policy and say, "Whoa, this is a great opportunity for Britain," which sort of shares a similar investment culture, or has a similar sort of tech culture, not quite the same. A lot of shared companies working across borders, well, you could argue if they can't employ some of the best people in the world that they could freely employ in America, there is an offer there. There's a potential offer there. There's at least something to think about. I do know people in cabinet do believe that. I don't think there's any contradiction between offering tens of thousands of visas for tech workers in AI. Who are earning lots of money. Yeah, and then doing this. But they seem to want to talk a little less about that, shall we say, a little less confident. I mean, another thing is in the university sector, where obviously there's been significant cuts to American educational institutions, including elite ones. There's an offer to be made. I know this argument has gone around cabinet. You could make a big bold offer and get some of the brainiest scientists in the world, but they seem a little worried. It's interesting. But equally, we've got a warning today from lots of universities that they might go bust next year because of the cap on foreign students that was introduced by the previous government to get net migration there. So that is interesting, isn't it? So they don't feel that they can discern, or do they feel they can discern or make a political argument that discerns between this type of immigration and university student numbers, which, although there's evidence of some fraud in those numbers, they have tended to be an economic bonus spread across the country in what were old polytechnic towns and now new universities. They haven't wanted to lean into that at all. You raise a question about how confident the government is. Can they make an argument here and say that this is not the same thing as a tech worker in AI who used to work for a big company and we can now get them to employ them in the UK, or someone in academia, or a foreign student that pays a fee? What is making me realise, and okay, my program has not been around for 60 years, but I'm realising now that it's like immigration, the immigration system is a work in progress. Like, there's always going to be tweaks to it, and it sort of feels like everyone is searching for the silver bullet that takes us to the end state that everyone will be happy with, but it's a dynamic system in a dynamic world. So actually, we're going to be tweaking this immigration system for as long as we're all alive. Sarah, you mentioned a few minutes ago, Andy Burnham, so what a saga it's been this week. So everyone got very excited when Clive Lewis was on another BBC lunchtime programme called Politics Live, where he sort of suggested, well, he suggested this. Have you spoken to him? I have spoken to Andy Burnham, yeah. And, but you, yeah, I'm not sure if he wants to move to Norwich, but would you give up your seat then? It's a question I've asked myself, and I'd have to obviously consult with my wife. Well, I'm family, but do you know what? You know, if I'm going to sit here and say, you know, country before party, party before personal ambition, then yes, I have to say yes, don't I? You'd give up your seat for Andy Burnham. I would, yeah. Now, Joe, after that, Clive Lewis, well, that started a load of speculation about Clive Lewis is going to resign as the Labour MP for Norwich. Andy Burnham is going to swoop in in a stunning by-election victory, and he'll be Prime Minister in about three weeks. Clive Lewis has since sort of clarified that he was just talking very, very broad terms. Broad terms. And if you look at the last election, the Greens were in second place. Norwich, a very nice university city. I don't know why Andy Burnham wouldn't want to move there. I think it's a lovely place, but it's not a sort of guaranteed labour hold at all. And Andy Burnham has said, I'm not going to rule out what might or might not happen in the future. I'm focused on my job here in Greater Manchester, which he does say a lot, but of course, he's not that focused on it that he isn't having conversations regularly with people like Clive Lewis. That's a long old trade. It's a workout. But I suppose that... Yeah, Manchester to Norwich. There is it. There's probably a lot of changes. Let's go to Ely. You can go quite close on a direct trade. Here comes the trade sponsor. No, I used to go to university on that route. So yeah, it was a lot. Would you like to be a bit of honorary Manchester correspondent for the next few minutes? Okay. Well, the interesting thing, and I think sometimes the Westminster bubble doesn't notice what's going on in other parts of the country. That is the accusation. Have to the growth numbers in Manchester economically have been really impressive. And as a Mancunian, when you go back, you're like, "Bly me. What have you done here?" This was the place I was like, you know, you wouldn't... And they've turned it into some sort of Manhattan style. All these little corners. They were sort of what was a not great canal area. Amazing. Amazing. So you can see the physical change that underlies some impressive growth numbers. And I think the status is the fastest growing city now in the UK. He's seeking to take... That was what his official launch and media presence this week was about. Well, I can essentially sort of learn from Manchester. I suppose that's a message to the Labour Party, which is... I mean, certainly my experience in my hometown, I don't know if they're now, is that they did... A sort of Labour administration there did do very good work with the private sector and big sovereign wealth funds, like the UAE in the area around the Manchester City Football Club, to help transform the city. Now, it hasn't solved all the problems in the city. There has been still an obviously significant homeless problem, but there is a buzz around Manchester. And the city is different from a country, in terms of how you run it. Yes, but I've always wondered. I've always wondered about the Labour Party, which is... One goes to our offices in Salford Keys, where there was a certain transformation and regeneration. Many people in London Labour have no idea what happened. It's an argument. I remember speaking to people when I was reporting on politics, Ed Miliband's team. I was like, is what you're trying to do in the 2015 election, are you trying to make an argument like we're going to do for the country what we've done in Manchester? And I wasn't aware that they had any idea what Labour administration did in Manchester. Joe, when you are hanging around at Westminster full-time, like, because the rest of us are part-time visitors to Westminster, does it feel like there's a Labour leadership contest already underway, and it's Wes versus Shabana versus Andy, does it feel almost like it's in the ether? I don't think it feels like it is underway seeing people actively campaigning. But the step before the leadership contest is moves to rid the PLP of KIA Starmer, and 100% those conversations have been ongoing in private weeks. You mean getting rid of the Prime Minister? Absolutely, yeah. And there are, I spoke to one MP this week, who said that the whole Wes Streeting number 10 briefing for Argo last week, that has brought another chunk of people towards the "it's time for KIA to go" camp. And that they think, depending on how the budget goes, there may be another chunk as well that could potentially tip it over. And I was, this person I suppose you probably think would be to the sort of right of the Labour Parliamentary Party. And I said, but what are the alternatives? If you look at the membership, you're going to get somebody who's maybe from the soft left, who wouldn't be all type of politics. And this person said, it's not about ideology anymore, it's about competence. Right. Now that is not shared, of course, by every MP. But the idea that people are making their decisions now, based on who they think their candidate will be, I think it's certainly not true for the whole party, because there is just this sort of real frustration with a lot of swear words, depending on who you talk to, about the mishandling of the last few weeks. But I suppose frustration is different from people actually doing something. And then, of course, it's quite hard for a Labour leader to be unseated if they don't want to go. Of course, the budget might not be the big seismic dramatic thing that people were thinking. Absolutely, yeah. Cure Starmer's opponents might decide to not sort of move against him. Definitely. Something might turn up. Loads and loads and loads of ifs. All of those things are true. And May is still after the May elections, and particularly Scotland and Wales, which aren't thought to be particularly easy for Labour Party. That could be the key moment of jeopardy for Cure Starmer. Faisal, in the last few minutes, what would you like to leave in our heads as we think about the budget? Well, it's sort of connected. And I have, since the income tax news last week, there was a thought that they're not going to do the two up, two down, the income tax up two, and national insurance down two, which is what I understood the proposal that had gone to the forecaster was. Those financial markets that we talk about definitely noticed. And it sort of stayed hovering at a more elevated level. Things had been going quite well on that front up until last week. That is not the backdrop you want. So there are markets asking questions. And I've always thought, yes, economic credibility matters, but they really start to get a bit spooked when political credibility is in question. And especially this test, which I always... Which is, when you see a Chancellor stand up after doing that red box moment, are they going to get what was in that red box through their parliament? And the idea that that is in doubt would be absolutely unthinkable. But if they have to do some painful stuff, and if it is the smorgasbord, there are... I don't know if you can get unexploded ordinance in some smorgasbord, but you see what... - And it's exploding up there. - Would you see why I mean? You can get this... - That's not jagged, really. - There's lots of risk of pasty tax type stuff, which annoys a specific group that would be very vocal, very motivated, and cause trouble with votes all the way up to the May elections. So I'm not... I know what I think there's going to be that income tax threshold. Freeze will be extended, that $7 or $8 billion. I think maybe some tweaks to far out spending, which I don't know if the markets will be convinced by that. - If that happens... - Very, very future spending. Very future spending that people have referred to as fiscal fiction will be tempted by that. - Okay. - There'll be loads of other little... Like EV tax, that's an interesting one. So I will leave you with this. What I have heard is that they want to be judged by who they have protected from the pain, and that has been quite a surgical, targeted strike to raise revenue. - Does sound like the worst smorgasbord ever. And Sarah, I don't want to give you anxiety dreams tonight, but presenting the world at one when the budget starts at $12.30 must be quite a thrill. - Yeah, we come on air early. We come on air early. It's the only way you can do it. We come on air early. And actually, and so we have a bit of chat before. Well, you know, I don't know who we'll have in the studio. - Anyone? - Sarah, thank you very much. - Absolutely lovely to be here. - Faisal, thanks to you too. - Thanks for being here. - And great to see you, Joe. Always a pleasure. And that's all for this episode of Newscast. Thank you very much for watching. Bye-bye. - Newscast. - Newscast from the BBC. 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