The Week Ahead – Bubbles Bursting?

Every part of the stack is going to have to create more value than they charge That's just obvious and if that doesn't happen, it will be a bubble Hello everyone and welcome to the week ahead on the mirror podcast My name is Dominic Bunning head of G10 FX strategy here at the mirror and today is Friday the 7th of November Well, it's been quite the week in financial markets, especially in equity land We heard just there from Alex Karp the CEO of Palantir Even he made the point that if value creation in the AI and tech space can't be maintained Then there certainly is the risk of a bubble stocks have seen a bit of a wobble Although the fall from the peak in the NASDAQ of currently less than 5% as we record doesn't appear to be accelerating for the time being on this front I'm really excited to be joined this week by Nomura's cross-asset strategist Charlie McKelligar Who is not a member of the global research team, it must be said, but is a true expert on this space and something of a financial market podcast veteran He's going to guide us through what is driving these moves in equities and what to watch in terms of bubble risk Outside of stocks politics is still front and centre in the US regarding both the ongoing shutdown Where only minor progress appears to be being made and on tariffs with the Supreme Court looking at Trump's IEPA tariffs We will discuss this the latest US data and the Canadian budget with Richie Sharma from our US economics team In Europe, the Bank of England decision had markets on the edge of their seats in an incredibly close vote albeit for unchanged rates Josie Anderson would explain how we're viewing the next steps in the UK and briefly at Scandinavian economic divergence Finally, our Asian economic team have published a deep dive on how the region's trade deals with the US are evolving Which we'll discuss in detail with Sonal Barma. As always, it's a lot to get through so let's get stuck in We're gonna start this week with a very very special guest. I'm joined by Charlie McKelligar who is Nomura's MD of cross asset strategy based in New York Charlie's a very well-known far and wide across financial markets for his views his color analysis Particularly in the world of equity and equity derivatives So we thought he would be the perfect guy to talk us through the latest developments over in the US I will add before we start Charlie is not a member of the global research team sitting instead on the markets desk and his views are not direct Investment advice so with all the small print covered Charlie. Thank you very much for joining us. Great to be here Dom So look US equities clearly having a little bit of a wobble at the moment and in a relatively short space of time And as you know as high level as we can be with these things. What do you think's really going on at this point? You know, I think there's Look as there's a number of dynamics of play here. I mean, I you know, I'm always remiss when you know dealing with You know client inquiries or you know, oftentimes stuff from media where you know, they try to they try to Bring this concept of you know standalone valuations as the the problem in of itself like valuation in and of itself Is never going to be a basis for a Sort or a pullback You know, I would say however there is something to this idea in the nature of Of the rally and the speed of the rally and the ferocity of the rally and certainly of late the concentration of the rally That it has created more discomfort You know so often When you are seeing kind of like a topping process in the markets, it's not necessarily, you know, the negative catalyst That that makes things go wrong. So so say in this case with regards to the impact and the importance of the AI trade and the mag seven type names That is created this dynamic where this incredibly small concentrated group of stocks is almost single-handedly Supporting and driving the market while almost everything else is you know, you know significantly lagging So you have this massive performance dispersion like top-dessile bottom-dessile dispersion, you know Which is like a 90th percentile and a multi multi-year look back. So you have this concentration dynamic that makes people increasingly uncomfortable and in this case the That concentration is being driven by this big theme this exciting theme this theme that has You know captivated investors particularly retail But what it's led to as this concentration keeps growing and these names keep doing more of the heavy lifting and they're generating more of the Earnings growth. They're obviously the capex bubble is it was its own story. There's a circular funding logic to it All of these things create, you know, additional discomfort and they create this prosyclicality I would even add the fact that you know market structure stuff the things that I love to talk about right like Options or leveraged ETS in this case, you know where assets under management are, you know Exploded basically to 160 billion bucks 100 percentile all-time high, you know 84% of those assets In the leveraged ETF space are kind of that same zeitgeist animal spirits mag 7 mag 8 AI tech Mega cat tech leadership. So there's this amplification the shadow leverage real and synthetic that has made this trade like the singular input to the direction of equities and Back to that point. It's not always the negative counts and not necessarily this idea that all you know Margins start going lower in one of these story stocks Sometimes it's the stock stop going higher on good news And we've gotten a little bit of that Just recently off the back of you know, the meat of the earnings in these core names these hyper scalars last week where you know Unbelievable earnings prints unbelievable earnings growth and profitability All of the good things that you want to see that has you know created this hysteria in these names but they're chopping and you know, I do think that some of this is A little bit of a function of a regular market phenomenon that we tend to see in September and October Where you know, almost one-third of mutual fund assets under management you see a year end in that period and what you then tend to see from a Factor perspective is this really you know expansive move where winners mark up And losers particularly like tax loss selling candidates Get marked down and we saw this huge blowout in that type of dynamic In the last few weeks Where I think people have this fear of the right tail You can't own enough of these story stocks. You had this regular seasonal phenomenon of mutual funds and you know marking up Retail chasing into out-of-the-money calls And it really just created this kind of like perfect storm where you almost ran out of juice And now you've started to kind of you know reverse out some of these dynamics As you've transitioned now out of that period and you tend to get kind of this dynamic where the losers reset a little bit lower and some of the cheap stuff, you know You know that's been left behind for a reason Starts to uh starts to you know begin to outperform and you've seen that a little bit too with people's short books going haywire in the equity side You know where it's really low quality high ball stuff, but it's been you know exploding higher So I think there's a market phenomenon. I think there is you know You know with regards to the flow But I also too think that you know the expectations have to get reset at some point with How important these are with regards to you know the water that raises all boats and equities Yeah, there's a lot to unpack there gentlemen Like you said, it's it's a very complex topic this sort of thing and we obviously are very guilty in our world Particularly of trying to boil things down to one or two key points But I do just want to pull up one word you said there because you did mention the word bubble Which I know is getting thrown around a lot but you mentioned in the context of capex, you know Just just talk me through a little bit. How are you thinking about you know? Is this a bubble should we care if it's a bubble, you know, just in terms of that word being used in a narrative sense It's clearly there, but from a more sort of almost Um specific perspective, what would make you worried that this bubble is going to pop Do you think it's something that can sort of keep going? How do you kind of think about that that term and how you use it more generally? So, I mean, that's an awesome question, you know qualitatively when looking back at prior bubbles I think you know one You know slightly more tangible concept is just this idea of like malinvestment and um I I don't want to call what is happening right now malinvestment right the huge difference between this and say like you know the tech bubble You know pets.com and that type of stuff was that these were um Those were you know money losing Companies and concepts and business models that have never been proven out, you know, um, this is a completely different dynamic It's um, you know, huge profitability already being, you know generated from um companies that are Then have been funding this with organic cash flow The thing that gets interesting for me particularly as we start talking about next year Is the velocity by which this capex Spending cold war Effectively is uh is growing and the two key points as it relates to that You know for me with regards to flows that have been structurally at the core Uh two dynamics that have been you know as macro factor input structurally at the core of what's happened over the past You know 15 20 years almost since the great financial crisis um that could You know in super rare circumstances actually see a reversal of these what have been you know phenomenal tailwinds for equities are are Then there's an interplay here There's a structural downside risk for ai stock leadership And accordingly all of these equities next year if the demand for ai capex Overwhelms and burns through the current organic cash flow generation And the double whammy here that that you know, I don't think um You know that I think people are just starting to talk about now it's starting to so this is something I've been talking about the last couple months Um, and and I think it's now gaining wider acceptance and being more widely socialized is at first As companies are now expanding capex through new debt issuance Right, you know, you've seen over the last couple weeks these big big big investment great offerings And you know people were trying to get up in a tizzy with regard to you know credit a few weeks ago but on the you know super subprime esoteric small size idiosyncratics of first brands and Tri-color and um in some like consumer lending stuff with you know You know increasing delinquencies and and stories of that nature Where people are worried about one cock religion is there this kind of 0708? You know scenario here to me the credit spread widening And the kind of the bearishness with regards to credit right now It's not about a systemic risk of that stuff going along and and you know Banks no longer are the ones that have that stuff levered 30 50 times in their balance sheets It's private credit. It's bdc's. It's you know, it's these companies that you know, they're going to be the shock absorbers That's great. Like that actually works um credit is going to go wider I think right now or the unextractiveness of credit with spreads where they are at tights you know multi multi-year tights um is because of this looming supply from Mega cap tech these are the biggest bond offerings in the market right now The demand for ai growth is outstripping the organic cash flow and they got to hit the debt market So you've had these huge deals in recent weeks, you know Oracle and alphabet just you know this week Um, and I think when you know that that amount of supply is coming in a sector that it's ballooned to be you know A massive part of the investment-grade space um The supply demand simply with credit spreads at tights makes this really unattractive. So, you know, that's the first part Um, it's the supply demand risk reward. Um, it's not a sub prime contagion systemic issue But the other then and this is maybe the biggest one of them all is the impact that this you know capex you know impulse Can't fix a bubble if we want to say um is going to have on potentially on corporate share repurchases on buybacks You know for the past whatever 15 years Um, these things the largest source of demand for equities in the united states has been corporate buybacks And it's been a winning trade and it's effectively in the world that I sit in it's effectively the biggest shortfall trade there is um, you know it it um It suppresses movement in the sense that it shrinks the flow of equities Right, so it's shrinking the supply of equities is this passive source of demand under the market Um, you know this year alone right announced buybacks are now upwards of 1.2 trillion dollars It's just it just it dwarfs, you know, we're I'm I'm measuring You know supply demand and balances with day-to-day flows in the option space or leverage DTFs or cta's or ball control in the you know billions and we're talking about 1.2 trillion Of announced just kind of like right now this moment in time So, you know the the trick here over the past 15 years They don't just act as a shortfall supply because there's this passive bid and they shrink the flow But you know when the market pulls back they are most active So it is a synthetic source of like long gamma and for like the non-option spokes out there That just means it's a counter cyclical flow or as the market is selling off You have this absolutely massive bid under the market that acts as an insulation device as a stabilizer Um, and in that case, it's just you know, you can't overstate the impact of the buyback impulse so You know when you are talking about it's been and buybacks are a synthetic stored ball flow A synthetic long gamma flow that acts as a shock absorber Um and getting because they get more aggressive into pullbacks if you begin to see an inflection lower In something that by and large has just gone higher every year With regards to you know say the s and p 500 announced buybacks Which by the way the 90 10 split of that is the biggest 20 companies let's say You know, which are the mag 7 mag 8 halo companies that that If that cash flow has to now begin, you know being kind of outstripped into These ai pursuits into the data centers and into the energy Requirements and all that good stuff that comes with this phenomenon You have a real double whammy here of wider credit spreads next year and potentially from a flow versus a stock perspective An inflection lower in the buyback demand And that is something that we haven't dealt with in 15 years and people don't understand in the background You know how critical those flows are so it's a it's a pretty interesting concept that ties back into this idea of like Just simply the the bubble outstripping You know this this kind of initial source of funds and it could be you know It could be a really interesting dynamic as I think we look into 2026 Because it's starting to happen now you are seeing credit spreads widen a little bit And you are seeing these companies no longer get rewarded Right now because it kind of seems like we've moved through this first phase where You know perpetual headlines on Um, you know capex spend have not been you know rewarded by the market It's a little it's going to be a more nuanced story going forward And I think people are going to want to see more tangible kind of linkage to you know returns and profitability Brilliant Charlie. I mean I could literally listen to you talk about this all day long as I'm sure the guys on the listing could do as well But um, we're going to have to cut it off there and say thank you very much But I mean just for me the key takeaways and I think it's really interesting You mentioned keep an eye on credit spreads keep an eye on share buybacks in particularly these kind of dynamics Maybe not the first thing people focus on people Maybe just want to look at the earnings or they want to look at the the price itself But actually looking at some of those things going on under the radar could be pretty crucial So thank you so much for sharing that and um, hopefully we'll catch up with you soon. Thanks a lot. Cheers We're going to stay in the u.s. We're going to be joined by russia schama our u.s. Economist Um russia is going to keep us up to date on the latest economic and political developments And russia does seem that there are two lingering political themes hanging over the u.s. One's obviously the shutdown So the first question which we ask you guys every week is how long can it drag on for? Um, and then the second is more to do with the supreme court and the hearing Around trump's tariffs. What are the early signs on on that as well? And then how do you see that playing out? Hey, so far the shutdown now. It's officially the longest in the u.s. History, but we've seen some positive signs so what we saw was uh earlier this week senate majority leader leader thune said that There's some progress and the senate is getting closer to an off ramp to end the shutdown And as we've seen that president trump has persistently called out The republican senators to end the filibuster, but we think that it it hasn't garnered enough support So for the silver lining, it seems like the negotiations. They're actually progressing forth and the agreement seems an agreement seems to be shaping up around a minibus with the continuing resolution And probably setting a vote on the affordable care act subsidies. So So the thing in contention is about the timeline of or the length of the continuing resolution It seems like the white house and speaker johnson. They're johnson. They're probably aiming for january, but Republic the senate republicans. They're probably looking at for december But but regardless of the timeline of the continuing resolution We think that a resolution is inside and there's been some Some positive development so we could see something probably early next week As for the supreme court hearing on the ipa tariffs Based on the hearing. We think that it's likely that the supreme court strikes down the ipa tariffs specifically Chief justice roberts justice gorsuch and justice barrett. They might join the other three liberals liberal justices to To reject the tariffs and we might see a ruling as soon as the end of this year So that said we think that tariffs are far from over yet and white house They do have other legal options and authorities like section 122 and 338 301 to impose tariffs so one of the things and there's this it's a plausible scenario is that The supreme court gives the white house a grace period to recreate these tariffs before revoking The ipa tariffs and it's their opinion that justice roberts is historically been concerned about the practical ramifications Of the supreme of the supreme court's judgment. So that's that's another case Interesting thanks russia. I mean there's a few things in there that can certainly move markets and possibly Provide a bit of support from a risk appetite perspective I think if you if you do get a bit of relief on tariffs or if you get the end of this shutdown Which is is obviously causing some some challenges. Um, I do think one thing on the shutdown, you know, we obviously not getting much us data We're getting a few bits of pieces. Um, we're getting some surveys We're getting adp employment numbers jobless claims a few other bits How are you guys seeing the economy evolving as the shutdown kind of persist? Are things getting any sort of worse or is it just more of a case of of slow and steady? In the u.s economy at the moment Yeah, so actually the data that we got this week that that actually points to some sort of a stabilization So we've been as you said, we've been closely monitoring if labor markets specifically are they Cooling gradually or are they falling off a clip and the data that we got again pointed to some sort of a stabilization and a very mild cooldown So talking about adp We saw that the private employment gains they actually rebounded following two months of decline So that was a positive and additionally we got some survey data the ism services employment index it improved modestly Though it remained below 50. That's the expansionary contractionary threshold firms continued to report that the labor market weakness is more due to attrition and not due to layout so That that's why we got We were somewhat less concerned about data and finally we also got the challenges data but we we think that it should be taken with a salt of grain because It it has sent some false positives in the past and another reason to be skeptical of that data is because challenger Takes into account the announced layoffs and not the actual layoffs So in the past way, we've seen that other data like jobless claims It hasn't moved very closely with the challenger's data. So that's why we are a bit skeptical about the spike that it Registered in october. Okay. So it's still sort of more of the same and until we see a clear picture Where layoffs are picking up. There's not too much to be concerned about I guess Moving north of the border in canada. We had the budget announced earlier in the week What was your take on what mark carney was able to deliver over in canada? Yes, so the finance minister in canada canada actually did lose in the first strings and So prime minister carney had been repeatedly mentioning that theme of the budget would be investment and austerity But my take is that the budget prioritized investment over austerity And it was primarily aimed to address structural issues that have beset canada for long So many of the policies that we saw in the budget They were actually known prior to the budget and the net new stimulus information that was somewhat limited so As was widely expected the operating budget and the capital budget was separated for the first time We think that there's the fiscal situation in canada isn't alarming per se, but it does require some constant Vigilance and finally I think most of the policies that were introduced in the budget. They're more of a long-term kind of a Growth they're more important in long-term growth kind of a perspective and the budget felt slightly short of providing an imminent relief So this is this is going to be somewhat tough for the boc and could Increase the likelihood that they'd have to cut further when resume cuts to spur growth in the near term Interesting. Thanks very much. I mean it's the first fiscal focus is is picking up all around g10 in canada often Isn't really mentioned in in line with some of the other Places with big fiscal concerns, but it's always interesting to me to see that actually when you look at debt to GDP It's it's not the low end of the spectrum So, you know, we'll see if the market lets let's kind of to get away with that that fiscal stimulus certainly worth watching in the week's head Thanks for coming on as always and we'll speak to you soon. Thanks for having me Well, it's been a pretty exciting week in europe as well with three central bank decisions and the bank of england Especially garnering a lot of attention Josie Anderson from our European economics team is here to give us the lowdown Josie Thanks for joining us. The bank of england left rates unchanged on thursday now That was kind of pretty much in line with consents although although we had been looking for a cut albeit It was a very close call It does still look like there's further cuts to come Can you can you talk us through the decision and what your thoughts are from here in terms of further easing? Yeah, thanks drum and thanks for having me back on the podcast So it was certainly exciting in the uk in terms of monetary policy this week As you said we expected a cuts but knew that that would be very tight and indeed it was a tight decision So the four more hawkish members of the mpc the nine member mpc did indeed vote for a hold as as we expected them to and the two far more dovish members Voted for a cut and said that left three swing voters and of course we know as you said That they did indeed leave rates on hold. So an extra fifth member in fact the governor Voted for a hold and two of those swing voters voted for a cut So that left the governor with the deciding vote essentially so we think it was very close We got new communications even From the bank of england so we could even read what individual members thought about the decision and we heard from governor bailey Talking of further policy easing easing to come if disinflation becomes more clearly established so that suggests that the mpc is open to more cuts and we have been saying for a while that if they weren't to cut This week then we think a december cut is likely And and talking about why it was a close call in the uk. Well for a while mpc members Have been saying that the disinflation process is happening too slowly But then when we've been looking at the data that's been released over the last few weeks We had inflation surprise on the downside And we had labor market data looking a little more soft In particular with slow wage growth. So that meant that Indeed this week we did think there would be a cut and there wasn't but now we think Looking at more data ahead ahead of the december decision We think that they will be able to analyze that data and and vote for a cut in december followed by We think a final cut now in april Okay, interesting. Now you mentioned the the data there. We do actually get some labor market data Next week and we get the monthly the quarterly gdp report as well What sort of data are you looking for in the week ahead and would it be consistent? Or what would be consistent with a december cut in your view? Yeah, thanks. So um on the labor markets Well, as I said, there were very very soft private secular private sector regular pay growth In in the last labor market report. So it wouldn't be a shock if we get slightly Some payback from that But we're forecasting 0.3 percent month to month growth in that measure We are forecasting a slight rise in the unemployment rate The latest month of data you can look at the single month Data came in with quite a high unemployment rate. So we could see for the whole of q3 The unemployment rate rise again to 4.9 percent We actually had new unemployment rate forecasts on the bank of england and they raised their peak unemployment rate forecast of 5.1 by q2 next year. So they do think the labor market is softening as do we On the gdp growth front Um, it's it was it's been quite strong in the first half of this year So we had 0.7 followed by 0.3 percent quarter on quarter gdp growth for the first two quarters of the year We're forecasting that to slow To 0.2 percent. So all in all, you know, it paints a picture of of a slow slowing economy in terms of a slightly Asoft and late market and slower gdp growth. Okay. Cool. Thanks very much. Josie. Um away from the uk We did actually get two other central bank decisions ricks bank and north bank both left ricks Unchanged for there does seem to be still a bit of scope for divergence. What's your latest view? On the scanties. Yeah, thanks. So, yeah, we expected them both to be unchanged and indeed they were But yeah, they're quite different situations really So in sweden the ricks banks now cut several times to a rate of 1.75 percent But the economy has still seen above target inflation But the reason why they have cut and they indeed they did the last cuts Was because economic activity growth has been looking pretty weak, but there are signs It's starting to pick back up And also the government announced quite an expansionary budget for next year So we expect that there will be no further cuts there indeed potentially the next move could even be a hike but we're talking a while In terms of that perhaps late 2027 meanwhile in norway They're still in the early stages of their cutting cycle So they've cut twice this year in 2025 But inflation still looking a bit sticky in norway. In fact, you know, the last print Was 3.6 percent for headline cpi. So well above the 2 percent target And so they are being quite cautious in terms of Rate cuts and and the latest guidance was that they will cut once per year for the next three years Now we think there's evidence that some slight softening in the labor market and we have a slightly Faster pace of disinflation in our forecast and norways bank will mean that they can cut slightly faster than they're currently projecting at a semi-annual pace for the next three cuts Great. Thanks, jacey. So you have a fair bit going on there and a few things Certainly to watch not just in the weekend, but also in the months head up in in scandinavia. Thanks once again and we'll speak to you soon Thanks, Tom You Now move on to asia where we're joined by sonal varma our chief economist for asia extra pan sonal Thanks for coming on. You've just released your latest asia economic monthly I think you're looking specifically at some of the trade deals that have been done between the us and various asian economies What's the latest take from you guys on where things stand there? Yeah, dom. Hi Yeah, so trade deals trade frameworks and investment deals. So there's lots that's actually happened in the last month I mean from asia's perspective our view is these have actually been lopsided deals because Asia's actually, you know, given large commitments to invest in us buy more us products Many countries have actually lowered tariffs on us imports Whereas the reciprocal tariffs from us on most of the asian countries have not moved much. So but I think Broadly speaking the deals. We think have important near-term and medium-term implications so from the near-term It reduces the trade policy uncertainty, which is a positive for asia incrementally The 10 percentage points lowering of china's tariff rate actually narrows China's trade china's tariff gap with rest of asia. So that will shift in our view some of the trade flow patterns During this truce period. So for instance The transshipment that was happening via southeast a year should taper down As china's exports to the us directly start to pick up I think there are more important medium-term Complications so I think one question has been, you know, how does all of this shift the supply chain moves in asia? And our view is that despite the us-china truce the supply chain shifts or the china plus one strategy as we call it will continue because There's obviously a lot of uncertainty on how the us-china how long the us-china truce continues. So mnc's are likely to shift supply chains mainly because of because they want to mitigate risk. It's not tariff driven I think the interesting change we've seen in the us deals Is that u.s has tried to tie up on the various critical mineral supply chain partnerships in asia to gradually reduce its reliance on china Some of the provisions in the trade agreement actually in our view signal the us's intent to bring countries Under its economic sphere of influence. So us is using trade as a leverage there Two other things that stood out to us. I think, you know, one silver lining in our view is that asian economies Are finally being forced to reform and open up their markets to more competition So they are easing the non-tariff barriers for the us Which in a sense is reform by stealth and should be positive for these countries And finally though, you know, one observation is that while countries are doing deals with us They're also simultaneously Pursuing multiple free trade agreements and these negotiations are going on across different regions. So A lot of countries in asia are trying to actually hedge their bets Thanks. So now that's pretty pretty interesting Seems like there's a few potential positives out there on the horizon from some of these deals Have you guys made any major forecast changes on the back of this? Well, we have You know on the back of this plus some of the incremental data we've got So I think two main themes that come out One is the growth resilience from the second quarter has extended into the third quarter So exports are holding up and tech demand is still quite strong. So we've gotten upside surprises on third quarter gdp and we've therefore revised up our growth projections for the likes of Malaysia and singapore I think the exception here is philippines where weak government spending was confirmed in the disappointing third quarter gdp estimate this week And something we think will sustain for now The second big theme I think that's emerging across asia is that asian central banks are turning more cautious in terms of cutting rates further This is mainly because growth has been a bit resilient And rates are closer to neutral in many countries. So central banks want to save bullets for the rainy day So we have now think that the easing cycle has come to an end in both south korea and australia Compared to our previous forecast of further rate cuts Okay, brilliant. And in terms of the week ahead, is there anything we should be focusing on specifically in asia? Yeah, there are three main things to monitor next week One is china's tier one activity data, which we think will show a marked slowdown So we're expecting ip growth to moderate to 5.5 percent in october from six half in september Retail sales we think will moderate to two point one from three percent Because of the payback from the trade-in program And the fixed asset investment growth we think will still be weak at minus six point one percent This is slightly better than the minus six point eight percent in september due to Funding from the policy banks, but overall we think the tier one data are going to disappoint The second is india's october cpi inflation. We're expecting that to moderate Below one percent to zero point four percent from one and a half percent. So food deflation continues We think core inflation will moderate. This is also the first month where potentially we see the impact of the lower gst rates Although, uh, you know, most likely we think given the lags in transmission It'll take a few more months for the gst cut impact to show up And finally we're watching the australian employment data. So the monthly data tend to be volatile But we are estimating the that employment rose by around 15 Thousand in october similar to last month And expecting the unemployment rate to be steady at four and a half percent I think overall when we look at the gross flows data, it does suggest to us Subdued hiring but also subdued firing. Yeah, I think you know the Aussie picture. We've kind of argued There's there's still some positives out there and the rba is not going to be cutting anymore So we do think there's a potential for for the Aussie currency to outperforms well Something to watch although it's being a little bit beaten up by the risk environment Which you've discussed earlier in the podcast, but we'll see where we go next week Anyway, so thank you very much for joining us as always and we hope to speak to you soon. Thanks a lot Well, that does it for this week. Thanks to all our contributors Thanks to John Dalton who edits and produced the podcast and thank you to all of the listeners for joining us again We would love to hear your feedback So please do leave a review or comment and let us know what you like what you want to hear more of and what we can do Better Please like and subscribe to nomura's podcast on apple spotify soundcloud or wherever it is You get your podcasts and share this far and wide with anyone you think would find it interesting You can also check out nomura connects.com for more of our content. Thanks again and good luck for the week ahead In a complex and unpredictable world Where a sunset in one market means a sunrise in another One investment bank always looks beyond the horizon To help our clients release the potential of tomorrow today Nomura connecting markets east and west Disclaimer This content has been prepared by nomura solely for information purposes It is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision And is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell or enter into any agreement with respect to any security Product service including but not limited to investment advisory services or investments The opinions expressed in the content do not constitute investment advice Nor is legal regulatory accounting or tax advice and may change at any time without notice You should seek independent advice as appropriate for individual circumstances For further information disclaimers and disclosures, please visit nomura connects at www.nomuraconnect.com Well, that's all for this week. Thanks again for listening to the week ahead podcast edited and produced as always by John Dalton You can like the show and subscribe on apple spotify soundcloud or wherever it is you get your usual podcasts We'd really appreciate your feedback So if you're happy to leave us a review and tell us what you like and what you want to hear more of we'd love to read it We'd also love to have this podcast reach far and wide So please do share with anyone you think may be interested As always you can check out nomura connects.com for more of our research and updates Thanks once again and good luck for the week ahead