The Ultimate Starting Pitcher Guide Part 2 with Nick Pollack: Rankings, Sleepers, Busts, and Must-Haves (Ep. 1162)

This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Next Monday, our 2026 I Heart Podcast Awards are happening live in South by Southwest. This is the biggest night in podcasting. We'll honor the very best in podcasting from the past year and celebrate the most innovative talent and creators in the industry. And the winner is. Creativity, knowledge, and passion will all be on full display. Thank you so much I Heart Radio. Thank you to all the other nominees who guys are awesome. Watch live next Monday at 8 p.m. Eastern 5 p.m. Pacific Free at Veebs.com or the Veebs app. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It's me, Joe E.P. JoP, Zapia. And we're continuing on with our ultimate guide, part 2 of Starting Pictures. If you missed part 1, go back and watch on demand on our YouTube channel. Fantasy Pros MLB. Subscribe while you're there. You know, Sarah's the guest of that one. And today, a very special guest. Fresh off of 80,000 words. How one man could write so many words. Over a week's time, nobody knows. But we know him as Nick Pollock from Picture List. Pollock is good to see you, my friend. How you handling all the snow here on the East Coast with me. A little different where you are. A lot more shoveling where I am. But you able to get out of your house, your apartment, or right? Oh my gosh. It is great to see both of you, by the way. And it is a discussing, I'm a curmudgeon, I hate the snow. You know, I think of it as a short term investment as opposed to a long term one. Because here in New York, I want to be able to walk around. I want to enjoy this. That's right. And it just gets disgusting here. So no, I've been hold up writing this article for the past like month and a half. Well, I hope everyone reads it. And I want everyone watching today to go to Picture List and go check it out. Please don't make that man write that many words for no reason. Well, is here again. Hi. We got a lot of good conversations. Hi, well, I'm here too, in the opposite end. Yeah. You're your your son, Tand and maybe a little sunburned. I don't know. I'm a little bit of everything. Everybody can see my, my glasses. No free ads. I would tell what glasses I was wearing. But you can see the glass line and very red face. I'm looking a little brand and fought ish. If I was sweating, I would look just like Brandon fought right now. But yeah, I'm very tired. Very, very tired. All right, we are going to go through pictures number 46 and onward with Nick Pollock again. The first 50 or so we touch base with you know, Sarah's on and now Nick is going to take us deeper into the hive of starting pitching. And of course, before we get into that, make sure you subscribe to the channel, drop your comments below. Because you might win yourself the fantasy baseball championship belt from trophy smack the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware. This ball six pound belt is the statement you want to make at any event, wedding, bar mitzvah, funeral, even you walk in there. I'll tell you what, well she's already told me he wants to be buried with his belts. His wife says, no, I say don't worry. I'll sneak it in there at the end for you there because I'm going to outlive everybody. That's my plan. But how do you win this championship belt from trophy smack? I'll tell you how you subscribe to the channel. You drop your comments below. That's it. That's all you got to do. And of course, don't forget to ring the bell to let those ding for notifications. You never miss a piece of content here on the channel and then we can let you know if you're the winner of the trophy smack fantasy baseball championship belt. All right, gents. Before we get to the 45 and beyond, Nick Pollock, there's one picture I did want to talk to you about who was above 45. And Welsh gave his thoughts, you know, give his thoughts. But I was fascinated by yours because it's such a weird circumstance that you don't see very often. Treyas average of the Toronto blue jays went from the low minor leagues to the world series in the same season. It's not a normal path. What do you make of that rise of Treyas average? Where is ADP is right now? And what is 2026 prospects are? What's your take on your savage? I'm really sorry guys. I'm just so distracted by the idea of Joe peace of Pia pulling a reverse curbing enthusiasm with that belt. Not the five iron, you know, it's instead going to be the belt. Slide it in there. Oh, just get it in there. And with your savage. We are very interested. Just darling and with the savage, it's a very odd situation. Okay, just even from a approach standpoint, what he does is so unique. His splitter is the steepest splitter in baseball. And what that means is that the angle of which it comes in and it's low all the time is steeper than any other splitter. So batters struggle more to hit that pitch than your typical splitter down. And he pairs that with the four seamer that without the splitter would get hit pretty hard because it has that steep angle but lives upstairs, which is actually really easy to hit. And it's not the hardest velocity either. But then you have the slider that is above average and it's it's a bit of stabilizing pitch against right handers. So ultimately I do like what you savage does. The blue jays they come out and say that they're going to try to manage his innings a little bit this year. I'm not really concerned about that because also where he's going in drafts, you'd be happy if you had a guy that was quality for 150 innings at this point. Like we're not living in the 180 to 200 innings range of pitchers anymore. That's just not what happens when you get down to the 40s anymore. So you should be happy if that is quality. I am leaning to the uniqueness of your savage and that absurd steep arm angle helping him a ton to be an effective pitcher. However, where I have a my rankings is on the lower end of what you know, Sarah's calls the hype seven. That is your McLean, your Baba Chandler, your your chase burns even your came slitler. I love their skills more than a savage. I only have burns lower just because of the flexor stream from last year. So can I say one thing real quick? Yes, please really interesting. Just on you savage. I'm not going to carry us here, but I feel like you're one of the first people to say this and I love that you did it that you like the arm angle because I feel like a lot of models and a lot of pitching people. The ding is about the high end delivery because everybody goes, Josh Colemanter and release pitchers and that high release point and that high arm angle, you go on baseball, you'll see that that you see it's like a high release point. That's the thing that makes everybody go, I just don't think because it's very reliever and you're the first person I feel like I've heard in a while say you actually think that is like the plus to his stuff. What's funny is that I thought it was a negative two. I was like, oh, that's not good because right that makes the four seem more susceptible. However, we don't see it normally a pair with this good of a splitter and a consistent one, at least that we've shown in this small sample and a slider that is as effective as it is we savage. So pairing all of that with the rarity these days of seeing someone with it is a positive forum and how dare you mention Colemanter and suggesting that your savage is like him. Okay, a lot of guys have many arm angles and there are many 33 degree arm angle guys just because one is another one doesn't mean that they're all going to be like that. Okay, so no, with the savage it's something that really just came to terms with this is why the four seemer has been getting away with as much as it is this is why the splitter has performed well down as such high swing strike rates with as many strike rates in the highest those swing. It's because of that and we should lean into that and understand it. That's uncomfortable at that too because hitters are really used to see it very often like the Jonah tongue angle to is another one to that way over the top it's not when you see very you know what I asked I asked not show Alvarez during the Arizona fall league. I asked not show Alvarez about the idea I said what's harder going against I'm trying to remember I think it was one of the Rogers with the submarine versus your savage on the over the top and he just looked at me and he just was like it's all way too difficult. I just made me think of that you know I'm happy you brought up tongue by the way because there's a lot of comparisons between the two right tongue has a high arm angle and he has a vulcan change it would essentially acts like a splitter. There are a few differences though that make a savage much better one is that it's even more extreme arm angle with you savage to a vulcan change well a vulcan change exactly as you think you make the Vulcan like spark and then you stick your fingers into the ball. This is really inconsistent okay this is I cannot I cannot fathom tongue finding a more a bit more confident also that it will be as consistent as it is and the biggest biggest flaw in Jonah tongue is that he doesn't have a third pitch oh the curve ball the curve ball is on a consistent reliable breaking balls too big to succeed. As opposed to fail and as what we traditionally see memory Lucas Gialito with the giant curve ball when he started and it's been disappearing since. So Jonah tongue doesn't have that stabilizing strike pitch that you savage does and that's really the major difference between them. I'm just happy that you call me the Larry David basically this program. The opposite you're not stealing the five iron you put it in I'm not but I'm also just as cranky and miserable and things just bother me for a reason. I was but I think my attitude might be a little bit more into that I've been told. I don't know you're a little bit more Jeff Garland. I'm a little bit more. Oh, can you guys give me a no no no because you kind of support it your I will say I'm like yeah you're right you know you should be met like I think you go me into things because you think it'll be funny that is actually great. Yeah so all right let's start with number 45 your Robbie Ray then Trevor Rogers in Baltimore coming off a break out season Ranger Suarez now in Boston. Real quick Welsh we just did a draft and you passed on him for another pitcher and a lot of people have concerns about Ranger Suarez in that ballpark and those concerns real for you as well. Yeah I don't again I don't know if like I'm targeting him is like oh this is a massive massive concern. He's just not really a target of mine. I think the ballpark is a negative in general. I don't think I'm in love with the offense round. It's a really tough division and there's just like a hand grouping of guys that I just like a little bit more. So I don't want to be like ultra negative about him but I do think like you could take one extra negative in the ballpark and just say I'm out. All right Gavin Williams at 48 for Cleveland the McKenzie Gore I like to take a shot on at 49 I think is a top 50 starting pitcher was 200 strikeout upside. Maybe a little bit of the learning tree to sit next to Jacob to Grom of the bench learn a couple things about starting pitching that be a nice change of pace as opposed to being the Washington Nationals. And number 50 is a guy that Nick Pollock likes drew Rasmussen so I want to pause there talk to me about drew Rasmussen in 2026 what you see that makes you excited about his prospects. Drew Rasmussen is one of the hardest pitchers in baseball to hit. We have a stat called ICR at pitcher list which is better than barrel rates or hard hit rate is ideal contact rate because there's more kinds of contact you don't want to allow. Like really hard hit ground balls or line drives so we have ICR I do contact rate and drew Rasmussen has the lowest ICRs I mean on his cutter his sinker in his four seamer these are three pitches he constantly throws or strikes his cutter is absurdly filthy as my cat is now getting on my lap so I apologize. But it's just such an easy time with drew Rasmussen to get a low ERA and a low whip is constantly done this and the only thing that really is missing is stability for volume at this point right you're wondering if I if he can go 150 innings again and let's be honest the raise just at exactly what you wanted him to do I would be happy the raises the same thing again they said final is just ramp you up into six innings again. Go 150 innings make sure you survive a full season I don't see why you can't do that and also the strikeouts could come back that cutter and the four seemer have such a fantastic gap in movement at a very minimal velocity difference that we should see higher put or a rates on that cutter if you if you see a lower strikeout rate at any time the first thing you should look at is to see how efficient was this picture getting strikeouts with that means is in two strikeouts when he throws this pitch. Was it a strikeout or not you'll see that that put away rate is way lower all of a sudden when they have a lower strikeout rate and usually that regresses back if it's all of a sudden like oh yet a 20% put away rate now it's 11% you'll probably go back to like 18 20% so that should happen on Rasmussen's cutter he should get more strikeouts and yeah I think he's just a really quality safe picture. Yeah certainly the top 50 that's pretty damn good for all the things that Nick has pointed out there 10 or by becomes a 51 show to him in august 52 Carl sort of not miss the opening of the season at 53 then we have back to back Cubs Edward Cabrera Cade Horton I want to have a little conversation about these guys. I remember Lance Brausdowski was on the show last year talking about Edward Cabrera having a breakout season he did still not a full season we still haven't gotten that quite from him but we're still reaching his peak years and then Cade Horton a picture came to the minor league system for the Cubs. Well, who I know you liked a lot but doesn't have quite the dominant profile of some other young pictures that you know we've been excited about in the past these guys going back to back in ADP who would you rather have because obviously this is a choice a lot of people are going to have to make is it Cade Horton or is it Edward Cabrera. It's a great question too because Cade Horton comes up in a lot of discussions and unfortunately he's come up as kind of a bust in a lot of people's minds. I'm good with him the thing I don't like is it's like really low strikeouts so when I look at like a well below strikeout guy or at least with the results were last year like 20% there's just like a little there's like a little room wiggle room you know if he does get hit up a little bit more he's not able to hold into the strikeouts. So I do lean Edward Cabrera he made really good strides on walking a lot less he went from almost 12% walk rate down to 8% strikeouts maintained right around 26% he's going in a pretty picture friendly environment is you know depending where the wins are at so yeah I like Edward Cabrera in this one I wouldn't hate on anybody that still likes Cade Horton because you do have to like also acknowledge like that stretch of where he was at was ridiculous and if he does up tick the case it took Brian who I mean different stuff. But you know Brian would took a couple years for him to you know up tick those strikeouts and if you start to see that progression Cade Horton is going to be dangerous but I'm probably a little bit more likely to take care barracks I also think he comes at a cheaper cost despite you know this close. Yeah rank the ECR rank Nick these cups guys are back to back is there one you prefer over the other well I would say it is Cade Horton over Edward Cabrera but I think well she makes a really good point of just like whoever goes second sure I'll take them yeah it is really nice to pitch for the cups. This is a great defense behind you it actually is a home run suppressor with that wind more often pushing the ball in as opposed to out. So that's why you see like about the boy having a better season from coming from Cleveland where lefties have a great time hitting home runs or I feel. And with with Cade Horton he does a great job of manipulating his cut for Seamer he also has a sweeper and a change up that both are above a 20% swing strike rate to the respective batters that is sweepers the right handers 20% swing strike rate. Change ups to left handers 23% and I think to myself we hold on a second put away rate what oh my gosh he has a below average put away rate on a sweeper to right handers that's going to go up. So the strike at rate should be better for for Cade Horton next year I also do believe in his walk rate being lower than Cabrera Cabrera load his walk rate last year with the thing that we've been screaming about for ages he has a low strike for Seamer that he throws like so much but then a high strike sinker they didn't throw so as you do just throws a sinker more than for Seamer where are the walks I don't I don't know. It's that simple sometimes guys just look at the strike rates of individual pitches and if they change those and yeah more strikes fewer walks interesting well interesting oh yeah no sorry I didn't make this problem I think for every Cabrera is that health has always been a thing. So if I had to really have a tiebreaker between them I would say Cade Horton because I do believe just had a full season I know he's had some injuries in his past as well but he just had everything that you could ask for to dictate a good full season. I work a Braira has yet to throw over 140 innings in a year and I would have a little bit more of a concern there and maybe even the ultimate tiebreaker is just whichever one is cheaper could be right that's the number one interesting thing on Cade which really speaks to the ballpark factor he had around a one and a half year at home with over three and a half year on the road and like almost a 15 degree launch angle up against him like so guys are getting the ball in the air and obviously Chicago is helping suppress some of that so you know here's just something to watch on a full season get on the road but it's just interesting stuff with Horton and Cabrera both whether you're going strike out slow walks I think they both really fascinating dudes that just like give me the cheaper cost and I'm probably in on one of them. You know because you put those two guys together I want to have a team now well called Horton here's a woo can I do that. Horton here's a woo okay they're just talking about a team you know generator there you go that was my fourth grade play Horton here's a who I had one line Joe yeah so I said did you go to sleep all right I say no the question is did you wake up okay this morning. Yeah famous actor Nick Pollock thank you so much. - Glaze and gentlemen, please enjoy the Nick Pollack's acting. - Oh boy. - My only been your agent then. - Oh, it demanded more dialogue for you. All right, Jack Flaherty comes in at number 56 after the Chicago boys, then Tatsuya Imai, who we're gonna talk about later in the show, I want to save him for later, 57. Shane Bos, a 58 Welsh. This is a guy that you love in this range. Let's talk about Shane Bos, new start and Baltimore for him. What does that mean for you? - Yeah, yeah, I mean, other interesting thing we're talking about, like, home and road splits out there. You know, Shane Bos got beat up in that minor league ballpark last year, almost a six, a little over five and a half. ERA on the road, it was in the like, 38 range at home. We saw his Velo go up year over year. Obviously, health is always a thing with him, but he went from 95, 6 to 97 year over year, which you love to see. The curve became a big more predominant part of his pitching and had around a 30% whiff rate. Like, the bad results heavily waited in the overall because you know, you look at the overall stuff and you're seeing a guy that had an almost five ERA in 160 innings, a one three whip. Like those are gonna kill you across the board, but you go, you put him in Baltimore, you've got a lot more run support. You're out of the minor league ballpark. I pay attention to those home or those road splits and I see a guy that it's like, if I can get sub four ERA from this mix in Baltimore, I think good things are in lock for Shane Bos, so I think it's just a really good value right now. I think there's a lot of upside and I think those really heavy extreme splits are kind of masking like the good stuff. He had fan graphs, stuff plus of 125 overall. I mean, his curve was absolutely off the charts, 125 slider is good. I'm sorry, it was a 107. The curve was a 125, great pitching plus. I mean, there's great stuff in Shane Bos. He's a target of mine and I'm still surprised he's going as late as he is. Pollock, real quick, after Bos, you got Bieber of 59 and Nola at 60 to round out this grouping we're going to talk about. Would you rather have Bos or one of these more veteran guys like Bieber or Nola, even though Nola came off a pretty disappointing season? - Beep. - Oh man. I would rather have Aeronola. I really want to go for Bos. The biggest issue I see with Shane Bos is he hasn't quite put it all together yet. George Slambrannerfield was terrible. I shouldn't have even mentioned that with Jorasmus and him going to the trap now. The trap is like the best place to pitch and you just had a sub-thread ERA with an amazing whip with Jorasmus, Ibrahim, or Field. This is just going to get better. Same with Ryan Pepeo. Love both of those guys. And I was going to be so excited for Bos. And he goes to Campton. Not necessarily terrible. It's just, Bos is so interesting because he's like right there, but then he's not. His slider was the destroyer of worlds and then now it's a terrible pitch where he would throw like four in a game and one of them would allow a home run. And so we had to shift to a cutter, which is fine. And as well as playing out, absolutely. He started doing it in 24 when he came back. Initially, the curveball of a sun had to take over because the slider was bad and it was a great pitch and it was a very reliable one from last year. But it's not like the most overwhelming force seemer anymore. And I need to see another step forward from Bos. So I don't want to wish cast that he will. But I definitely think there's a good chance. So I really want to have Bos, but I can't turn down Aeronola. Aeronola, look, it's even your Aeronola. Yeah, it's not a glider. - No, I mean, no, it's a lot of data to support. - It's actually 20, it works that way. Sometimes he just happens to have lost seasons every other year. I don't know, but he had injuries last year, got him out of rhythm. And there are very simple things to tweak what happened last year. He had some terrible luck. He didn't have a degradation of skills. And generally when you see these older pitchers get worse and hit that cliff, you start to see, okay, the velocity is going down, the movement's going down. A lot of these extra elements and no, the curveball is still one of the best curveballs in baseball. Aeronola should honestly stop throwing his sinker away and trying to do back door sinkers to right, handers, just throw it inside. It's like the most easy textbook approach, sinker sweeper. We hear it all the time. It's pretty much what he can do. And then he has a fantastic approach against left handers with that same curveball. So Aeronola is exactly the same guy that you want him to be. I feel like this is an amazing time to get Aeronola because yeah, 60? Are you kidding me? That's a guy you're not going to drop the entire year in your 12th teamers. I'd be so lucky to get Aeronola at 60. Next Monday, our 2026 I Hard Podcast Awards are happening live in South by Southwest. - This is the biggest night in podcasting. - We'll honor the very best in podcasting from the past year and celebrate the most innovative talent and creators in the industry. And the winner is. - Creativity, knowledge, and passion will all be on full display. - Thank you so much. I heart radio. Thank you to all the other nominees. You guys are awesome. - Watch live next Monday at 8 PM Eastern, 5 PM Pacific free at Veepe's.com or the Veepe's app. - A long track record of every other year and a long track record also have taken the ball over for 5th day, which is something you don't see a lot of guys do. All right, if you want to try to get some of these guys on your teams to start practicing that, well, it's time to use the draft simulator here from Fantasy Pros, go to fantasyproz.com/draftwizard or just download the app so you can get all of your mock drafts on. We just did one today. It's gonna be on the channel. So go check that out as well. You can set your league specific settings. You can close any kind of roster configurations, scoring systems, whatever it is. We can do it over here at Fantasy Pros. You can do drafts in just minutes. You can undo picks, redo picks. Continue on till you build the rosters that you like and then you can go into your drafts feeling confident. Don't forget to sink your leagues over at Fantasy Pros and if you're looking to play out those leagues, where's the best place to do it? Well, of course it's fan tracks. So head over to fan tracks right now because you can do multi-team trades there. You have leagues that run 365 for dynasty and for regular leagues too. You can trade draft picks. You can customize your leagues, however you want. And that's what fantasy should be about. It should be about the experience. You're trying to get out of it. So go right now, bring your fantasy baseball league to fan tracks or start a new one for an unbelievable user experience. Sign up today at fantracks.com/fantasyproz. That's fan tracks.com/fantasyproz. All right, let's get to this next grouping here after Aaron Nola who is done and dusted out of here at number 60. Andrew Abbott at 61, Zach Galen at 62, Matthew Boyd comes in at 63. Then you have Shane McClanahan at 64. I want to stop there because we got a couple of targets here on the way. Both of them actually Welsh targets. So Welsh, let's talk about Zach Galen first. I want to get your take your returns to Arizona where obviously last year up and down season. And yes, we see your mug. We'll talk about McLean effect. I know what you said before. Yeah, that's clever mug. So for those listening on the podcast, I know you miss the Vulcan grip. You have to visualize that. And Nick Pollock also has a mug that says McLean a fan on it. I assume that was room at Clanahan. Not Shane. Yeah, you know, the other one. Yeah, I mean, you do have that Golden Girls t-shirt. I know you do. Let's not pretend like you don't. Let's talk about Zach Galen first, because I love the year next take on him. But Welsh Galen, again, kind of in Inigma for a good chunk of the season, then a strong finish. So who is the real Zach Galen in 2026? Yeah, and I've been talking about him a lot. So I guess I apologize for talking about it again. One of the big things was talking about just how low the cost was many months ago when everyone was like, well, let's see where he's going to go. Wouldn't have been a bad thing if he went to the Cubs and all what we talked about in the suppression. The thing that just come back to you is the thing that was holding him back the entire season was the change up inconsistency. And it's weird because it was like the change up ended up having like a low batting average again. But it's because he wasn't throwing it for strikes. And that ended up him getting hit around with some of his other stuff, you know, trying to get the curveball in, fastball, which just kind of cake. It just wasn't a great pitch. And I think that's a good argument to why you can still not like him. But my biggest argument has been he just became vintage Galen as soon as the trade deadline hit. August, he had a 257 ERA at the very end of the season. He had some blowups that kind of pop back in, but he was going six. He was getting quality starts. You saw the consistency. And he's stubborn. He's a super stubborn pitcher. And the entire season, it was just like, I'm going to throw you first pitch change ups. And guys are like, nope, can't throw it for strikes. Bam, you throw that crappy garbage fastball in and then he's getting banged around. And then that wasn't ever allowing him to set up the curveball. He found the consistency at the back end of the year. And it's a dude that goes significant amounts of innings. Maybe he's not, you know, a sion type of guy anymore, but he's making that $20 million bet on himself this season. And as is a low end thing, not focusing on the stuff because I don't have a great argument to say was that Galen, like he's got all the great stuff, blah, blah, blah. But he's got a hell of a defense behind him. You want to look at that infield bringing in Nolan Erenado as a gold glove third baseman to be in their Prado almost great. Katel's talking about getting that gold glove in here. You know, Carlos Santana, there's a pl- It's a phenomenal infield defense. And the outfield is, it's very athletic. And Jordan Lawler, if as long as he can play solid defense, you have got an A plus defense that's behind this team. So really my biggest case is that Galen's not gonna be a top 25 starting pitcher. But I think where he's going, 'cause where the hell do we have it? He's outside the top 60. I don't think it's a crazy thing to think that he can't come back and be like a top 35 pitcher. Can't be a guy that you're holding onto for the majority of the season. And I'm banking on the second half where the post trade deadline version of Galen carrying back over this year. So he's a massive target of mine. - How about for you, Nick? What are your thoughts on Zach Galen? Again, kind of an up and down season for him in the last year. I think it scared a lot of, look, it scared a lot of fantasy managers away, but also scared some visually teams away too for agency. - You know, so the number one inefficiency I think we have as fantasy analysts is predicting defenses. If you look at Jose Soriano last year, he was the number one ground ball inducing starting pitcher. The angels were the worst defense. I wonder why Jose Soriano allowed a lot of hits last year. And you look at Merrill Kelly's great seasons, Rangers in the second half last year and the Dianbacks to previous seasons, fantastic defenses, right? The Cubs who were just talking about those guys have outperformed their peripherals with their ERA and whip, right? And here I see Welsh talking about how good this Dianbacks defense is. I'm like, wait, hold on a second. Yeah, we should be very much in on Merrill Kelly again. We should be in on Zach Galen again, right? So Ryan Nelson, yeah, sign me up. These are, I think, value plays for all your leagues. And with Galen, I remember talking to Galen as well as my first player interviews. And the funniest thing about it was I did the interview, I couldn't believe it. I jumped for joy, you know? And then I listened back to it and it only recorded me. Oh, and God, it makes me stick to my stomach. But I sat there and I wrote out everything. And I, you know, what he said then is pretty much all the same stuff now. He thinks like a closer in the first inning, right? He attacks. He does not, he's not someone that lets the game come to him. He's the one who gets the game himself, right? And that could be a positive and a negative, because I think there are certain things in his approach that he just hasn't had to change over the years. Curveball is the deathball. It is an amazing pitch down that is always going to get those swinging strikes. And he's constantly set it up with a four-seamer for call strikes down. And neglected the fact that this four-seamer has more cut action than batters expect. But he's never really learned how to jam it inside a lefty. And when that change up isn't there, as well as just saying, which has always been a back and forth for him, same with the cutter and the slider. Back then, he didn't know what the difference was. And now he's kind of splitting it up. That is like, he literally didn't know which one it was and he was throwing. We didn't either. It's just, he needs that fastball inside to take down lefties more. He needs that change up to be there. He needs a slider to be there for righties. And he'll always have the curveball, but it really does depend on, all right, is my fastball going to do enough for me and let me get those outs with my defense as much as possible. So I think so. I'm going to lean toward Galen having a downseason because the skills ultimately weren't so much different than what we've seen in the previous years. And also, I haven't really seen Galen have major changes to adapt in the past. So I'm a little bit more hesitant to believe that he's going to all the sun get those for next year. But I'm in for the most part. All right, so in for the most part. That's a glowing recommendation in for the most part. Matthew Boyd at 63, but Shay McClannahan, we know you're in on. So I know Welsh has got him as a target too. So before we get to the mug man, let's get to the Welsh man. Talk to me about Shay McClannahan because this is the guy I'm not in on. Still even at the ADP. You have Tommy John surgeries, plural, and you have nerve issues and things like that. To me, I just, there's other guys around this range that I'd rather have still because I'm concerned that Shay McClannahan just doesn't pitch again. I understand that. My biggest argument against that is who cares? He's so cheap at this point. Like who cares about all those arguments that you have because it's not paying top 30 or top 40. He's a professional. To counter that, like Matthew Boyd at a really strong season that hunked a lot of fantasy teams at 63. You can throw Pollock's throw in hands and being Merrill Kelly's a guy that's gonna give me 30 stars. Those guys were freelance. You're really. But those guys were freelance. You're like, I know. I know it would be like, they're still free guy. I'm looking down this list and I still see some free guys. You're allowed to have that argument. I get why you would want to be out on Shay McClannahan because guess what? A lot of our arguments are going to have to be from 2023 and not or 2022 more if you want to put that. So I understand why you can be risk averse but to me, risk aversion is early in drafts. It's not later in drafts. Unless I've just, you know, I'm going nuts and I'm going crazy and I'm like, give me, give me, give me all these guys and you've got too many. But like I think the, I think the upside is still great. You know, prior to the injury, even though 2023 was a little downish, he's still at a 3 to 90 array. He was still keeping down batters with an OK whip. But prior to that, he was elite. Shay McClannahan was a top 15, top 10 picture in baseball and he has had all of this time through rehabbing. The raise, he just got to throw. We're getting some glowing reports out that the Velo is back. That's probably one of the most important things. He was 96, 8, 96, 7, the last two years that he pitched. He was pushing 96 in that start where most of these guys are not at 100%. He has an absolutely just one of the best changeups in baseball when he's right. And I think that combination, that's just not mentioning, you know, curveball slider that is in a throw. It's about health. And if it is all about health, to me, you can make two decisions on him. It's not worth it because of what you said or that he will be healthy. And a healthy Shay McClannahan is a top 20 fantasy option that you're getting outside the top 60. So to me, this is a no brainer. And as I've said on episodes, I am more boring at the top end of the pitching I'm going to draft this year. I want Logan Webb is like my number one pitcher. Like I want some boring guys because I want to, I kind of want to go a little balls to the wall at the end and take a couple shots. Give me chase burns and give me Shay McClannahan as like my risk pieces to have three core pitchers that I think, again, my biggest argument is that when he is right, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. We have had three, two and a half years to get right. And from all intensive purposes, he's going to be uncapped this year, going to potentially start the season and his stuff is back. So that's the anti strider. Like what's the strider conversation's been? That's like, well, stuff didn't come back off of injury. Early reports are the stuff is back on McClannahan. So I'm going to inherently be back on on. - Well, I mean, we could talk about the stuff I'm being back for strider. We'll get into that later on the show. But I feel like, again, it's like we got to this place last year of McClannahan and then poof, you know, all of them. - You're not wrong. - And that I think is a very terrifying thing. Nick, I know you're-- - Much higher cost. - You're going to get this conversation. - Much higher cost and a higher cost last year. Him and Al Contra were both higher cost. But now we're even more removed from Spencer Strider's injury. And so far, there's no red flags that are popping up for him physically this year. And still we're in the ramp up phase. Still, of Shay McClannahan. So Nick, talk to me about McClannahan at this ADP. I understand what this point of view, which is, hey, it's late enough for me to feel like it. Now, I think of it in a 12 team league, you're fine. There's questions I have where I'm just like, I don't want to take a guy that I think has so many ranges of outcomes that are negative for me. Just because he has the upside to be a 20 SP, he does. But at the same time, he also has the downside of not pitching it all for me. - So, okay, hold on a second. Just to something at the end there that completely changes his conversation. Because are we talking about this in a 12 team or are we talking about this in a 15? - Talk to him. - Because those are both, we can walk this. - Well, okay, so a 15 team, I am going to understand a little bit more of the hesitation of taking this, right? Because there are, it is more valuable to have those quality innings guys in those 15 teams. That said, 12 teams where I live, this is an absolute steal. And I'm going to say, I'm assuming most of the people listening right now are in a 12 teams or shallower. And when they come to the fancy pros rankings at 64, it's talking to 12 teamers, not 15. That's my interpretation of them, correct me if I'm wrong guys. But that's how I see this. - That's typically, yeah. - And I'm going to talk about in 12 teamers right now. I'm also going to tell you Joe, if you need to get some more, now's the time to do it. 'Cause I'm going to talk for a while. So, what it's just said is amazing. It's fantastic. This is a conversation I came onto, this own podcast with Alex Fast. I want to say like five, six years ago, talking about Shohei Yotani and Jesus Luzardo. In the same scenario where I was like, "Oh, these are the injured guys. "I don't know, very good." And I had debate with Alex. I'm like, and I'm saying, guys, if it's only health here, you take this chance. And you Joe were like, "No, this is ridiculous. "I'm given to Alex Fast." And Shohei Yotani was amazing, you know, for 150 innings or something. That Jesus Luzardo has best season. And it's just like, what are we doing here? Because if you look at your teams from last season, in your 12 teamers, how many pitchers did you actually keep on your team after pick 180? How many of them? I want to say it's like three. - That's the most. - You did, right? This is your game this after. And when it comes to late flyers, you want it to be a binary choice. You do not want to take a flyer who you don't know if it's gonna be good or not at May 15th. You don't want to know, you want to know by April 10th. And with Shema Klanahan, it's as simple as, is he hurt or is he not hurt? And you might even know before the even, even the season starts. And then you can go over place it and go get whatever other flyer that's out there. 'Cause there are gonna be so many others. And you say, oh, no, Nick, there aren't many flyers. Let me tell you this. I do this every single year. I look at the players from the past season who's exceeded and who was drafted after pick 290. I'm gonna give you some names. Matthew Boyd, Merrill Kelly, Chris Boobitch, Erika Brera, Andrew Abbott, Ryan Nelson, Jameson Tyrone, Noah Cameron, Emmett Sheen. Okay, oh, and by the way, those ones are doing well from the beginning of the year. Let's talk about mid season. We have Shane Bieber, Lucas G. Lito, Jacob Mizorowski, Noah McClain, Trevor Rogers, Kyle Grattich, Eury Perry, as Parker Mestic, Joey Kentio, Hirston Waldwreck, all of these players in season that you're adding. So the replacement value is great. You're fine. If you need to find your Matthew Boyd value, well guess what? You've found it last year off the waiver wire, literally Matthew Boyd. So go for Shane McClain a hand. Worst case scenario, you have to go and find someone else. And there's no middle ground that's actually hurting you. Question. - About the middle ground. - I'd like to ask you a question. - He's injured guys at this point who are only about health. When he's not in during the season. Chris Bupitch is another example who's right after this. If Chris Bupitch isn't that rotation to start the year, awesome. He's gonna be great. But if he's not, then you just move on. And you get someone else. It's absolutely amazing pick here. Shane McClain hands 64. Oh my gosh. - Question for you. You keep saying it's a very binary choice, but there is another option here because we saw a play out numerous times last year with guys who hadn't pitched for quite some time coming off injuries, which is the Alcantra, the Striders, these guys who didn't have a feel for pitching or mentally were still not in a place where they were confident. So there is a, I think there's a third option here that I think you're dismissing a little bit, which is you go from, he's hurt and he's no good dear. He's healthy and he's the best pitcher in baseball again. Or what about C, which is he's a guy week to week. You don't know what you're gonna get and you don't know if you wanna start him. How many people were like, should I start Alcantra? Can I keep doing this? I mean, Strider and August, you wanna jump off a tall building last year. Like there is a third option. I think it's a little, you know, well, I don't want to dismiss that for the people too. So what about that third option where a guy wasn't pitched in two and a half years, all of a sudden, I guess, mentally where he's at too, because there's a feel for pitching too. When you haven't done it in a long time, it does make me a little concerned that there's another thing where you have him every week, you throw him out there and he's hurting you every week. Because he is not right there ready to go again. - Great point. So two things to say about that. One, Alcantara, not on the same level as Shemeklannan, as much as being the guy that loves Shemeklannan as Shemeklannan, back in the day, not the pure stuff of Shemeklannan. What we like about Shemeklannan, Shemeklannan was that he would be able to go deep into games and be able to degenerate quickouts and not overpower them in the same way that Shemeklannan does. We spent through Strider. We actually saw right away that the stuff wasn't as good. We knew it. If you follow my stuff, you would know that I was like Spencer Strider, no cell get rid of this. This is not the fastball of all. This is not the slider of old. We see that Hire Strike, I will talk about it more later, but there were so many signs that like this is not him and you won't be carrying this dead weight for the entire season. If you follow exactly what the stuff is with their pictures. So you'll know that from McLean and fine, if you don't want to say it before the season starts, okay, I'll take it a week or two then. But I don't feel like we'll be in the situation of three months of Shemeklannan hurting your teams in that what I call hipster scenario, headache inducing picture stifling the entire roster where you don't know if you want to hold them or drop them. That will not be in my mind a high percentage. That is like a 1% chance in my view happening for Shemeklannan. - All right, I think it's much higher than 1% for a guy. I mean, to me, this is the athlete thing of the mental game he is the 1% in terms of talent. He is the one who knocks. - Yeah, but here's the problem. - Also more well-rounded than Shredder, for example. - Shredder is very much and like as a picture too. - Shredder's there which is like, here's my fastball. Slider, huh, got you. - You're not wrong. - My name is Plania and change of focus, much better feel of that with a slider. - That agree with me. - And of course, Numer, like it's much more as good as you know quickly if this just is not there. - And I just think we're discounting the mental aspect and the fear that exists I think for pictures on them. - You can interpret that. - You can have everyone, Joe. - Wow, I mean, I could, I mean, there's a track record of it. You know, I don't want to go down some of these dark windows or these things but it fortunately exists. But it's a good conversation. And I think that's, this is why we have you on 'cause we like having these conversations and it helps everybody who's watching make their own decisions about it. I'm the boys are in on Shemeklannan here. I'm still not enough of a discount for me. I like him outside the top 75 and I'm not getting that. Merrill Kelly at 65, Bubech at 66, Joe Musgrove at 67. - Conorly early, this is a picture that I know you and I agree on. We both like quite a bit, Nick. Problem is, there's no room at the end right now. So what do we do here? - We don't. We just don't. - Don't stash pictures, guys. A roster spot is so valuable. I just listened to all of these guys that were productive past pick to 90 last year that you would be able to get off the waiver wire right away. And don't turn that down for Conorly early at some point arriving. You know, when he does arrive, I'm in. Conorly early, I think he's a phenomenal picture. It's just, I don't know when and don't put yourself through that. - Well, Shemeklannan for you Conorly early. I mean, that gets the flip side of the argument is, it's a long season and if you have a big enough bench, you want as much talent as you can get. So you could find guys in April to kind of get you through of earlys not there or even May. But I mean, two thirds of a season, you get four months out of him. I don't know. He does kind of ring true a little bit at this ADP for me. - It's the unfortunate kind of conversation of the piece that I have to say where it's like it really is format specific. Like I am in agreement, like there are very little guys that I'm gonna stash in a 10, 12 or 15 team unless I have a giant bench or the stashing is more IL quantitative. If you're talking about draft and hold, Conorly early is a different discussion because like could one of those guys be out of a rotation in a month? Yes, absolutely. So if I'm drafting 50 roster spots, I want to have him. Listen, Conorly early would be, I think we were talking about this before we started the show. If he had a rotation spot or even like the feel of he was truly fighting for a rotation spot right now, he'd be top 50 in ranks. Everybody would have him in the top 50. His stuff is ridiculous. He added some, like there's like 10, 15 pounds of muscle he was working out here. I think in Arizona with guys like Tariq Scubo, a lot of the ASU guys were out here. Like he's been putting the work in, drive line stuff, but he doesn't have a rotation spot right now. And I can't put an investment on a guy that just takes up a roster spot in so many different ways. By the way, points leagues, that's a big ant. And I can't justify a format where I'm like, I'm going to eat a month, six weeks for a guy like Conorly early. But I do agree that if we start to see, Oviado get beat up or we see an injury, early is going to be on every single website's number one waiver, wire pickups, you have to get him. He's beyond a streamer. We're all going to be talking about him. He just doesn't have a rotation spot right now. They've talked too glonely about Oviado. So yeah, the rank is just way too high. Unfortunately, he's a draft and hold. He's just really not any of those formats. Fair enough. All right, the next guy on the list is Bryce Miller, which is a target of Nick Pollock. So let's talk about Bryce Miller of Seattle here. Nick, give me your thoughts. I mean, it's pretty straightforward. Bryce Miller had a lost season. And here he is without needing to add a pitch. Bryce Miller's stuff is insane. It's not just the four seamer. The two plane movement on both his curveball and his sweep rate 83 is insanely good. It's really just a matter of time to me that he actually spots those a little bit better, gets more whiffs on those and understands that he doesn't need to just throw four seamers all the time. There's also a splitter that is effective as a whiff pitch to lefties in there too. He has all the tools. He has an incredible home park. He's going to be in that rotation from the get go. And the Mariners already shown that they like starting their guys. They are not one of those clubs like the Rays who will baby them and make them only go four innings or so. They will say, great, can you go six innings today? Awesome. You got to do that every five days now. So Bryce Miller is in the perfect scenario to just go out there and dominate every five days. I love this. I think that when you have a scenario where a guy doesn't need something else, he just needs the reps. Amazing. Yeah. I mean, Erie Perez in Bradish and Bieber worked. They did. And then we just listed a bunch of guys that did not. One, he's a striker. It was just Spencer Strider. Sandy Al Contra didn't work. No, Al Contara came. And Al Contara was at the beginning of the season and not like a Nile Stash. And also the ending finally did come up. And I think that's what I'm going to say. I think that's what I'm going to say. And also the ending finally did come back around up. I understand that. Another one too. Can we call these guys the orthodontics group if you're just going to call them the braces? All the braces. We'll just call them the braces. Yeah. How do I say so like that? Brokeys is not. He's 71. His role still influx. Casey Meis. Nick Pollock. Finally, somebody you don't like. Let's talk about the why. He's going to be right. And I don't like drafting guys like Meis who I can't tell you how they get out of that label. The four seamer is dead zone. I is very hittable. Is slider has been something he's been trying to figure out for ages. And he can't do it. He's trying to slide or cut or all of that. His other good pitch is a splitter. And really when you have a pitcher who does not have a good fastball. And really the only thing that is exceptional is a splitter. That's not a consistent pitcher. That is a hard thing to depend on. Routinely throughout a season for lots of strikes to expect lots of strikeouts. And the fastball just needs to throw harder again. And he needs to have a cutter that works off of it. It's just not enough right now. And I'm not going to sit here and tell you that he's going to add something brand new that's going to be great to really compliment it while I see other pitchers like Noah Cameron going in right after him who is a command artist. Like he has four or five pitches and it's awesome seeing him as a swatch a south ball with a tight change up. There were a lot of those last year and Noah Cameron was a booster child for that. So Noah Cameron's a swatch. I would much rather have than Casey Meis. That's got to be a t-shirt right. You got to put that on t-shirt. Noah Cameron is 73. Jose Story out of 74 and 75 Shane Smith. So that creates that grouping. We'll get to the post 75 to 100 group in just a second. Just a reminder we're brought to you today by Hard Rock Bet. And if you haven't already, push a first bet on Hard Rock Bet. There's still time for you to get 150 and bonus bets. If you win, just put $5 on a bet. If it hits, you get your winnings and 150 and bonus bets only at Hard Rock Sportsbook. App downloaded today and make it first deposit. Payable and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and other states must be 21 plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia play terms and conditions apply concerned about gambling and Florida. Call 1833 play wise in Indiana. If you or someone you know as a gambling problem wants help call 1809 with it, gambling problem called 1-800 gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right. Ryan Nelson comes in at 76 Jack Lighter at 77. I'd be remiss if I didn't stop and pause on Jack Lighter a little bit here just for a moment. Don't say anything Welsh. I want to get the unfiltered Jack Lighter take here from Nick Pollock because stats are stats, numbers and numbers. And I find a one thing Nick Pollock is a numbers guy. Last year, if you go and take a look at 2025, the ERA was 386, the expected ERA 445, the X-Fip 453 and the FIP 415 Nick Pollock, your thoughts. Let me hold on. Let me just real quick. The context of Joe is leaving out on this. You can talk about it. I said no context and I are giving a context. I don't think that's okay. You know, I'm sold to context. I will, I will make my comment after 100%. You can of course you can make a comment. Yeah. Okay. So first and foremost, I like numbers. I wouldn't call myself a numbers guy. I would say that I try to be the merge of the I test and numbers as opposed to because I, I pitched in college. My whole startup was, you know, pitcher gifts so that we can actually get video and see them because there's a lot you can learn from watching a guy pitch, then just listening to the spreadsheets. And I don't actually use like X-Fip and FIP and Sierra and those because those are just derivatives of the actual data, which is the input, the pitches themselves. And they will tell you the things that those stats are trying to, to give you so don't you dare put that on me, Joe. All right. Okay. Just getting around. But we do agree where I was last year. I thought that this was going to be something that was a possible breakout because the four seamer on paper looks pretty cool. It is an elite philosophy pitch. It is a flat attack angle. He has good extension and as good IVB and all that stuff. And oh boy, he just can't command. And it's so frustrating watching this guy pitch because you feel like these things should work and then he just can't execute what he needs to in that moment. He needs that slider working down in a way and it's just, nope, that's not right there. Maybe there's a sinker that you might add. Cool. But I just can't play this game. He is a hipster to me. He is someone that I can blink and he could be amazing for a season and that'd be great. But when it comes to being a fancy baseball manager, I can't draft Jack Lighter and hold on to this because I won't be able to know if it's time to drop them or not for far too long. He said everything that I feel very eloquently about Jack Lighter. Well, go ahead. No, no, no, no, no, no. What is getting lost in here is Joe screaming and ranting every week that he doesn't belong pitching. He said, "You said he wasn't one of the best college pitchers that we've seen in the last 20 years." I never said he wasn't one of the good college pitchers. He said, "He was a nepo baby that got his opportunity." I said, "He was a good college pitcher and I said, considering his minor league track record, he's gotten a lot of opportunities to prove himself and to me, he still found life." I have plenty of belief. Show that out. Well, no, no, no, no, this is what he was saying. It's a hilarious bit. I'm not, I've never advocated that you want to go in like own Jack Lighter and you can play him every single week. The only reason he's here is because his father was out Lighter and I look and I see plus stuff numbers. There's inconsistencies. His fastball grades out well. He had a killer fastball slider combination in college that he is not quite developed in the major leagues and by the way is 25 years old. The Rangers have revamped their entire pitching development and how they're treating these. Jack Lighter's gone through like, he got taken out of the minors for like a full month just to go into kind of developmental hell. So I just want, I don't want this to be about like, "Hey, well, she's like, you got a draft Jack Lighter." No, not at all. That was me defending that. This isn't just some nepo baby. This was one of the most dominant college pitchers who like, if he can get his fastball slider in the command up, he showed signs last year. He'd have four or five stretches, but yeah, he's not someone you can trust. He's like a. Mark O'Poeyer. Well, he never got a college pitcher. What are you doing? What are you doing now? I want to do this. This is what happened. This is what would happen. I'm under. I'm under. Like the dark hell. Excuse that somehow, I can go on if you want. There's a lot of dominant pitchers that don't translate to the major leagues. Pitching college is something that is. I don't say he wasn't a dominant college pitcher because he was. He's very good. My whole point is to me, he's not been special and so far he hasn't shown me as Nick put the ability to get out when he needs to and he struggles with the. In he. He struggles with his control. You're acting like you just had a 5-E-R-A. Yeah, 328 second half of the R.A. It was pretty good last year. Hold on a second, numbers, boys. Basically, what happened was the expected R.A. was 4.5. That is league average at best. Oh, best? I don't care. What the X-E-R-F line is. You guys can love pitchers. You guys can love pitchers who have four walks per nine. I think that's great. I think when you walk guys, that's obviously a recipe for success. All the great pitchers in Major League Baseball history. I just said I was on your side. Joe, just burned it down. I love it. I'll always burn it down. You are on my side for a second there and then you start to. Because you're being reduced. Don't cross me, Paul. All right. Quinn Priester at 78. Cody Sen gets 79. Unfortunately, Pablo Lopez no longer with us this season. Shout out to Pablo. Grayson Rodriguez at 81. I'm going to spend a lot of time on Grayson Rodriguez. More of a curiosity, Nick Pollock? Of course. You draw it. I agree. This is where I agree. Okay. Yes. More of a curiosity on Grayson Rodriguez. Good. Next up here. I'll put my hand, but Grayson got it. Well, I mean. It's because there's a different price for him. That's fine. Let's move on. It's a different price. Well, she's in kind of a 64th pitcher off the board. Grayson Rodriguez is the 80th. That's a big difference. Well, is that not a big difference for you? Numerically, that is. But those are also like the back end of your rotation. They're both like that. That's like the one that's seen to be a guy. It's not just that. It's also the overall players that are available. We're having a lot of fun now. But I think the overall players on that area, you're looking at some names that I still want on my rosters. And if I'm going to take a shot on a pitcher, I want him to. I just wanted to cost me a little less if I think he bottoms out. Yeah. No, I don't really. He definitely costs less than the chip on his shoulder. Grayson's not a top 20 prospect. If he. Or top 20 SP if he's healthy. But to your point, he does not have that. No, but you know, it's funny how we all forget two years ago, people were falling over themselves about Grayson Rodriguez as being one of the top prospect. They're both great. But the clan hand is better at the pitch. The clan has absolutely better and more proof. It was a side-yum contender. There's no doubt about that. But again. We talk about our awesome guys. We have awesome guys to talk about. We're talking about that. Yeah, Logan Henderson at 82, Sean Monit 83, continuing on for this group here. It's a lot of guys like the Zebby Matthews who haven't quite figured it out yet. Guys like Ryan Weathers, who, you know, at 89, could start the year in a rotation. And then who knows if he gets bumped at some point for other guys they return from all this. But Ryan Weathers, Nick, is a guy that I want to start with because that is one that I feel like if you're looking for early help, Weathers could be one of those guys. And again, cost you almost nothing. This is another perfect example of what we're talking about here. Like, this is a. He's a draft pick of free. If my last pick of my draft gives me two months of stellar production, that's unbelievable. You're like, you thrilled. If you're not drafting because you're worried about Rodan and Cole returning, are you suggesting that this rotation will be exactly the same at that point anyway? This happens all the time where there's a guy returning from injury and we don't draft some Atlanta players because, oh, Spencer Strider is going to return. So they're going to get bumped. Yeah, okay. Like all these other pictures got hurt and it's a completely different situation at that point. You don't really know what's going to happen. I don't even think it's going to be weather's that would be the one that would get kicked out if weather's is healthy at that point. And weather's as far as a skill set goes. Yeah, he has an amazing change up with 96/97 velocity and an improved slider. And honestly, there's one change. There's one change. I know it sounds like a stupid ad. Like the doctors don't want to let you know there's one secret. But this is really it. The Miami Marlins, for some reason, don't teach their lefties to throw inside sinkers. Hey, Susan Zardo did not throw an inside sinker but he had all this horizontal movement on his forsemer, dead zone forsemer though. And what happens? He goes to the Phillies. Where do they go? Oh, hey, throw inside sinkers, the lefties. All of a sudden, it's an amazing fastball on the lefties and he's solved his lefty problem. Right? That was one of the biggest changes for the Zardo last year. Unfortunately, not enough for the volatility, but that's another story. Now, weather's has not thrown a sinker inside to lefties but he has this horizontal movement on the like the five sinkers that he's thrown. Yeah, the in case they're going to do that. So, weather's to me is value of the was due here. If you're worried about injury or him getting replaced, who cares? He's in the rotation right now for your last pick. Amazing. I agree. 100%. Love it. Let's get to another guy here in this last grouping. I know from me outside the top 75 E and C more as a guy that I keep circling and drafting late. Well, Ryan Nelson is one of those guys for you. Is this come back to the defense of the Diamondbacks? Definitely a part of it. Yeah, I mean, I think that's like Nick said, it's got to be accounted for for some of those top in guys. But also like Nelson was pretty great last year. He's kind of maintained a couple straight years. If he's not walking, you saw the, you shouldn't see like a slow up tick as far as strikeout. It's still not great, but you know, 20 to 21. If that starts to tick up a little bit more, is that stuff becomes bigger. He saw half a mile increase on his fastball stuff plus numbers. He was overall 108. His fastball 115 like Ryan Nelson is sneaky. And he is now out. If he, if people don't remember, he was kind of put in that like pseudo relief, long relief to start the season. That's not happening now. Like he is the guy. And even though they brought in Zach Galen, guess what they're not discussing. Ryan Nelson going to the bullpen. It's Brandon Fought. It's a border red regas or it's Mike Seroca crying about it. Like one of them are going to have to cry about it. It's not going to be Ryan Nelson. And they're going to let him go. And you know, he was the most consistent. If you really want to break it down, like, maybe you could say, Merrill, but like for the entirety of the season, he was the most consistent of any of those guys. If you want to look at expected numbers, his expected ERA was also under four. So that's just more of a support system to say like, hey, this can be really can be a three and a half ERA guy that, you know, he's throwing solid stuff. The fastball is ticking up in the right direction. And if you can get up to 2223 K percentage, not at top. He's not going to be Brian. Woo going from 20 to 26% K percentage. But like, he's in that general vicinity. And then like we said, there's pretty good defense that's around him that might end up creating an extra inning for quality starts. Might get you an extra winner to into the season and might, you know, save a decent amount of runs to keep that into like a low three ERA. So like Ryan Nelson, I think it's just like such a good back end of the rotation, your fantasy rotation to snatch because I think there's just like a maybe he's not like the exciting Grayson Rodriguez upside, but he's kind of like fun boring. You know what I mean? It's just like, what have you got like low three low walk guy that's floating out there at the end of your draft and you don't have to stream him out? I like Ryan Nelson a lot. And I'm one of the best fastballs in baseball. It's amazing. And your old dating profile didn't he used to say fun boring? Oh my gosh. Yeah. Why would you? What are you doing? I'm actually probably a fun boring. I'm probably more of a fun boring. I go on both sides of that. Oh, stop. All right. Let's talk about the sleepers. And the bus has here. Nick, want you start us off with a sleeper that everybody should be looking at? I mean, okay, there are there are two that are really sticking out. I know it sounds crazy. It's not your boy Ian C. More I'm really sorry, but he's not going to be in the rotation, Joe. Yet yet. Someday. I know, but no, we don't stash guys. I do like Ian C. More if you were in the rotation. Bailey Ober is one just so you know here. Bailey Ober. I know we all did not like last year, but he was actually dealing with injuries. And it's it's kind of wild to me that Bailey Ober is just getting completely forgotten about. Now he's going to get the opportunity if he's the velocity is back up a little bit like. Yeah, he was really good. I the previous years with an amazing elite change up that was still good last year. But the one that we don't talk about now is Ryan Weiss. Ryan Weiss is coming from the KBO. He had a phenomenal season there. Tons of strikeouts. And he's really a hard throwing 95 96 with an amazing slider. So you throw that onto the Astros who are likely going to have a six main rotation and they want to get innings. They want to get they got Ryan Weiss because he was able to go along in games and the KBO. And I guess please do that for us now. So do get a guy that has the opportunity of going 90 pitches in a game with a possible 24% strikeout rate. That seems really, really exciting for me. So I think that one weiss is going to have a lot. A guy right to well shift memory serves. Totally different guy. It's totally different. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, my right. KC for a little while too. But no big league experience. I don't remember him ever. No, he did not pitch ever making to me. So that interesting name there. See, that's a free guy. That's your last pick everybody. Ryan Weiss. Listen to Nick Pollock. That's a good one. Well, another guy who's come back to the major leagues here is one of your sleeper guys. Let's talk about Cody Ponds. How about the KBO MVP? You know, one eight nine ERA completely transformed. I mean, again, KBO double a triple a version of the majors. However, you want to look at that. But completely revamped fastball came up to ticks. I also think we talked about this on a show. I'm forgetting which show it was. But underrated is just like being in a room with like Kevin Gossman and Dylan Seas. And the way they they have all connected working through a splitter like that. With the fastball uptake. I think there's a lot of good stuff in store for Cody Ponds. And he absolutely dominated KBO last year. And he is for $0.99. So, you know, you take that MVP with that stuff on paper. The stuff looks really good. Obviously, we've got to see if it's going to materialize. But he costs you absolutely nothing. And guess what? He gets blown out at the top. Like we've been talking about. You cut him and you move on. But there is a legitimate shot where, you know, Cody Ponds carries some of this over. That fastball plays for his secondaries to just become real out pitches. And then all of a sudden, he's a guy that you don't get out of your rotation the entire year. So I like. Alright Nick, we're going to open up the entire pitching market to you. Not just the 45 and above group, which is also in his dating profile. Very funny. But see, that's running joke. Nick, that's that's a. Let's talk about it. Give me your bus guy. The guy that you are not buying it on his ADP and why. I thought it was pretty funny. That was a pretty good line. I got to say. Yeah, I'm just completely out and I'm sponsored writer. It's pretty clear. I know it's going to sound like a long story, but it's very simple. I've never seen and actually put this out into all the analysts I know in the industry. I asked and no one had an answer for it. A pitcher with an elite force seemer. Have Tommy John come back and not have an elite force seemer. To then re-wain it the next year. It has never happened. And though even the quotes that we've seen have been like, I am working to do more with my arse. Like it's essentially acknowledging the fact that Spencer Strider is not the Spencer Strider of old. But Nick, yeah, there really good strikeout real last year. You could be really good. No, no, no. He had a 15 strikeout game against the Colorado Rockies. And that is messing things up a little bit here. I do not believe that Spencer Strider, the pitcher and not the thrower, is actually worth your time more so than a lot of other guys. I have him in the 70s. And that is saying, look, maybe there is something else 70s. I know you're looking at me like that. I'm not liking it. But I don't talk 25. Why is it an extreme? I don't think that I don't I don't think it's a guarantee in any way that Spencer Strider is going to be a productive and good for your fancy teams. Because last year he wasn't necessarily like there was a lot of times you probably shouldn't have even more than a guy. So it's a striker and recovered after that didn't really hold on. Wait, wait, wait, wait. No, I guess the question that didn't recover their their fastball. I want to know some of the games and see whether or not we thought they ended up becoming good pitchers after all. Well, you said who are the guys that have you leave and have it after? And then didn't have the reason they had. Yeah. And then I was actually remember that. I didn't talk my head. But like Corey Cooper. I will I'll get that for you after you do well. Yeah, it was essentially that's the interesting part to me as I love those names because like to me then then we would see goes, OK, well, that's a great point. Still a good enough pitcher like I'm like to rank at 70. You know, extreme. If we were still not quite the same guy, but productive to a certain degree, maybe it's top 50 pitcher still or top 30 even potentially, you know, OK. It could be. But that's the thing is like that's what you're hoping for. Right. So I don't want to go. I'm not going to draft him there. So there was there was no. It showed anybody who had an elite fastball to that level who. I mean, how often does it come back? And then regained it. How often does it come back for these guys? Yeah, it is never. Yeah. Well, I mean, like for example, you just are. I did. Right. Jose Fernandez did. Right. Coming back from Tommy John. We've seen that before. This is UCL. I guess that's maybe in that maybe that could be the. I mean, I mean, I think that's the thing that's going to happen. Like I was just saying, I don't know. I mean, I think that's what I'm saying. I mean, I think that's what I'm going to say. I mean, I mean, I think the thing is that I'm not going to have a. I mean, I think I'm going to have a. Yeah. with a brace you get this, with TJS, you have that. If you don't have it, we've never seen you're. - Would a good spring where he's throwing 98, change your opinion. - If he's throwing 98 consistently sitting there, as he has in the past, with the same IVB, the vert, and the same extension, and the same attack angle, making it the same fastballs before? Absolutely, we changed my mind. - Okay, here you go. Move 'em right up to 69. All right, well, she give me your bust that you want to talk about in this range. - Yeah, I didn't even realize I did this too, but we both picked guys that were not necessarily in this range of that we've been talking about. - You were, it is. - Yeah, actually. - I wasn't really on this range. - I thought he was a little. - Okay. - It's been a long episode. - We do want to get together. - Yeah, I guess he was 54. - This is why you come to the channels. Why you stay to the channel? - That's so yeah, my is my bust. You know, I will admit, seeing it, if he is 57, the 57 is a lot more like palatable, I suppose, in the cost. I do think we're on a rocket ship that's gonna come up because all that you're getting over the last week is like, oh my gosh, this splitter is gonna be absolutely unhittable. But, I've been able to get over specifically one thing. It's been the market for him. There's only so many great pictures that anybody can have any investment on and it ended up being a market where it was like three years. And it was attached to a super low innings cap. I mean, his incentives are built around like 70, 80, and 90 innings. Like, what was the hold back that people had? Coming out, there was also a big question about his reverse slider and how that was really going to work. So like, his splitter's disgusting, no doubt. But I just wonder, like, you know, are we gonna lay off the splitter? Is the fastball gonna set things up enough? And is this reverse slider, which I think a lot of people have had questions about, is it going to dominate at a level where he can be just like an elite, elite fantasy picture? So I'm gonna fully acknowledge if he is like 57, because I don't wanna like be a hypocrite and say like, well, it's not really that bad of a cost. If it doesn't work out, you can kind of move on. I'm, I guess I'm working more in a market where I've seen him going inside the top 50. And I think there's just some questions outside of just focusing on like, oh my gosh, his splitter. Oh my gosh, his splitter. It's like even the team themselves are like, can you get us a hundred innings in here? And I'm just not sure that the fastball and the reverse slider are going to be as dominant to set up this splitter to be this disgusting pitch. And he's gonna be Yamamoto or anything like that. So I don't love the cost, but you know, like I said, the 57 isn't as crazy as like my brain was working with him. Now we have some fun because the must-have, guess who Nick Pollock is everybody? Am I? That's right, it's not so you am I. And I have about 33. So I see someone who the Astros got to just be an innings eater. Same kind of way that they got Ryan Weiss is like, cool. We only have to pay like 24 million or whatever it is for you. That'd be great. 20 million. Awesome. We'll take a year of that. Oh, but it was 60 million plus for three reason. And he hasn't up there. He's going to get this. And my is, well, he has a track where I essentially pitch like a veteran. He has a fastball that is absurdly flat like Joe Ryan's. If you don't understand that, it's a forcing me those upstairs that has a flat attack angle, which is really hard to make contact with the normal bat path upstairs. And otherwise, it's going to miss a lot of bats upstairs, guys. And the faster velocity than Joe Ryan's as well, the splitter has three different shapes. And he manipulates it. And this is a lot of stuff from Lance Brudowski's breakdown, which I highly recommend you watch on YouTube. And your service did have a breakdown as well, where he does make that Joe Ryan comparison is where I got that from. And the slider, you say the reverse slider, I'm not really worried about that. Just thinking of as a gyro slider, guys. And those are typical ones. Those are those are standard affair. So I'm I think that's a has been a very good pitch, a good with pitch for him overseas should still be this is a complete pitcher to me. This is someone that is a gamer who who sits 94 95 on his foreseemer and then pushes it later in the game to 88, so 98 rather and understands that you're not supposed to just go max effort every time you're how you actually get your outs, get your strikeouts, get through games. I see a really safe pitcher here for a good ball club. You want to be pitching for the Astros. Yeah. And they're going to yeah, they're going to throw them out there for 90 plus pitches every time. This is a great pick. All right. There you go. So two different into the spectrum on a my two and the spectrum on a lot of different guys are in the show. Well, close us out here with your must have in this range that we're talking about. I'm going to change mine because I think it's only appropriate for the show. Your must have is actually lower. I originally picked Shane Bonds, but you know what? Got to have Shane McClannahan. And I think that's been proven on this episode. So must have Shane McClannahan and a little nod to Shane Bonds for my must have. All right. Make sure you check out all the ultimate guides here. Again, this is part two of the starting pitchers. Part one was with you know, Sarah's. We've had an amazing run here with these shows. They're all going to be a playlist for you that you can watch them on YouTube get ready for all your leagues. So just go through them all. All the infields, the outfields, the starting pitchers, everything's here for you. Trying to get everybody ready for the season. And Nick, we always love having you all because we like to have good discussions. If you want everyone to sit here and agree with each other, what are we doing? That's the whole point. The whole point is this is that we bring up different questions. We challenge each other so that you can go out there and make the decisions that you think are the best for your fantasy seasons. And I think that makes for good television. That makes for good conversation. Nick Pollock, you always make for good conversation. Go check out picture list. Not just because of the 80,000 words they wrote because all the pitching breakdowns are the best in the business. Nick does a phenomenal job. He's a friend of ours, is a friend of the show. And Nick, every year, I'm sorry we couldn't be a part of pitch con this year. We were on the road this year, well, she and myself. But can still people go ahead and donate and make make sure that they are part of this program again because every year you're raising money for ALS and it's a huge thing. And we love to be at part of it. It's quite alright. It couldn't be this year. It's a first year we haven't been. But there's no way for people to donate. ALS 1.org. Just donate directly to it. Yeah, we raised, I believe, over $14,000 for the cause. 100% went straight to it. Absolutely incredible. So it's a huge testament to the entire community being a part of it as well. You guys have been part of it for years now. And yeah, looking forward to doing it again next year. But it is actually all available on YouTube right now. And also via podcast, we have former years as well as different seasons as pitch con audio. So if you missed out and you want to catch it, just go listen to a podcast or watch it on YouTube. Great to see you as always. My friend, everyone go to pick journalists, check it out today. Good stuff. And everyone go get that shame. A clan head mug too. That's pretty snazzy mug there. I'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes off for Nick Pollock and the Welsh, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/FantasyProsMLB. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] Next Monday, our 2026 I Heart Podcast Awards are happening live in South by Southwest. And the winner is-- Creativity, knowledge, and passion. We'll all be on full display. Thank you so much, I Heart Radio. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific free. It beeps.com or the beeps app. 14 years in prison for killing a young woman, a 15-year sentence for a crash that caused three deaths, 12 and a half years for killing a child and critically injuring her mother. 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