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236. The Truth Behind Trump’s Rally U-Turn

38m 5s

236.  The Truth Behind Trump’s Rally U-Turn

The live stream discusses the chaotic and unpredictable pre-election dynamics in the U.S. amid Trump’s fluctuating rally schedule, which began with cancellations in Kansas and Iowa before being reversed. This shift is interpreted as a defensive move to avoid appearing weak, aligning with Trump’s well-documented aversion to criticism and vulnerability. Polls in Kansas show a narrow edge for Pastor Adam Hamilton over Marshall, but margins are tight and subject to sampling bias, indicating high uncertainty. Early voting has surged to 46 million, signaling a potential blue wave in key states driven by anti-incumbency sentiment, especially against long-serving Republicans. The growing public anger over corruption—exposed by cases like the Kimberley Gilfoil pay-to-play scandal—suggests it could become a defining issue in the election. Despite Republican backlash against Trump, the live stream acknowledges internal fractures within the party, with many establishment figures now openly critical. Nevertheless, the MAGA movement is expected to persist, with Trump likely to blame allies or candidates for losses and pursue distractions, such as foreign policy escalations in the Middle East. The analysis concludes that while Democrats may gain ground in key races, the broader political structure remains volatile, and the party’s future will depend on a decisive political realignment. The stream ends with a reminder of upcoming post-election analysis, including a "body parts bingo" involving Trump’s references to political figures, and invites audience engagement through the show’s platform.

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Welcome to the Restisted Politics US and this Friday, October the 30th live stream, it is your Halloween trick or treat of the elections special. What have they got in store for us? Anthony and I are doing this wrap up, we're going to be taking your questions, we'll look at the news of the day, sending those questions. Thank you for joining us from everywhere. I'm very excited, somebody is joining us from Denmark, which is kind of fun because poppy my youngest daughter is about to go to Denmark. This is random for her semester abroad. So hello, Denmark. North Barric Scotland, Littits, Pennsylvania, Orlando, Florida, at least you've got nice weather, kind of jealous right now. Okay, so what's been happening today? More chaos and confusion has been thrown into the mix of an already messy election run up. President Trump has you turned on his decision to cancel rallies in key states, Kansas and Iowa, both of them of course battleground states that could decide the fate of the Senate. And guess what, those rallies are actually having been off, they are now back on again, the Republican National Committee, cited Republican strong position in both states when explaining the cancellations, but that's not really what the polls have shown and I guess maybe not so strong after all since Trump is back to going there. So what's really going on here? Are these signs that the demands of a tiresome campaign trail are getting the best of Mr. Trump? Or do Republican candidates just not want him ruining their chances by being around them? This episode is brought to you by E. Toro. A tariff, a spending plan, a regulatory change. It can all start just as the first line of a speech, but it sets in motion things that can reach far beyond Washington and unfold for years to come. That's right, Katty. Mark has moved on expectations, not just events, investors are constantly weighing what a decision could mean for company sectors and the wider economy. So E. Toro is an investing platform where you can access a wide range of markets and explore how political and economic developments could affect them. You could also learn from the global community of investors and see how people around the world are interpreting the same news. As with all investing, your capital is at risk see E. Toro.com/tripus for full terms. My friend Christopher Lloyd has a new book out and you remember him? He was stock brown. Who is Biff Tannen? Katty Kaye. Who is Biff Tannen? No idea. Okay. I know the Biff from back to the future. Yeah. Well, his last name was Tannen. His name was Biff Tannen. Okay. So let me, I get, I get, I get, I got to explain everybody what just happened. So Marty McFly called Biff Tannen, a coward and a baby and said he was getting his ass kicked in those two states. And so Biffy, he didn't want to show up. And so guess what happened, Katty Kaye? He's going to show up. He's going to start talking about body parts. Okay. So now I am creating a trip US bingo card. Okay. And there'll be Huston's ass on there. It'll be the man boobs of Senator want to be Paxton. And we're just going to have a bingo card. And we'll watch those last two rallies. And we'll just put little checkers on whatever anatomical parts that Donald Trump references. But this is classic Trump. He did not want to go. Because the look at me, look at me. Everybody see that? That's tiny separation between my index finger and my thumb. That is the amount of people showing up at Trump rallies now. And the crowds are getting smaller and smaller. He's blaming Vice President Vance, etc. Yeah. I think also he, I texted somebody who speaks the president fairly often and asked him what was it with his on and off on again and off again rallies. Because now he's making a story out of this four days before election day. We are not talking about Trump and what he might be doing about the economy. We're talking about the fact that he canceled a rally. A Reuters reporter asked him why he canceled the rally. Was he sick of going to rallies and doing all of the traveling. Trump got super vicious and attacked the reporter on the tarmac and said, I can't believe it. You guys, you know, you're useless. Your news organization is useless. And then said Tim. And you look terrible and you need to get in shape, sort yourself out. I mean gratuitous, you know, with criticisms of the guy attacks on the guy. And then, of course, a few hours later, they say, okay, yes, actually the rally is back on again. This Trump ally who I texted said to me that he just didn't look like looking like looking weak. And when he was called out on having canceled the rallies, he didn't like the fact that the news media line was, oh, Mr. President, are you feeling too tired to do rallies? And you're going to do a whole load of tele rallies instead, which is what the White House has said. He didn't like that. He didn't like any suggestion. We know this about him, right? We, when we did our series for our founding members, he hates looking weak. When I get in Twitter, spats with him, which is not often anymore, but used to be, if you call him fat, well, first of all, he can't fat shame. But if you say you're a little plumpy, he goes crazy. And the other thing you say to him is that you're old. So if you're a little frumpy and a little clumpy and you're old, he goes absolutely crazy and they should play that piano key a little bit harder on him because look at what he just did. And he doesn't want to go and they don't want him there. And so it was a weird play. It was almost like, okay, how can we help ourselves in these two states? This is the Democrats thinking. Let's egg the cat on a little bit. Let's see if he takes the bait. Yeah. And he did. And we did hear it. I mean, on Monday, was it a rally? And his voice was kind of raspy. And he told the crowd that his vocal chords weren't made for a rally every day. He said to this reporter, this Reuters reporter, I've done 28 rallies and I'm doing just great. But I think the Kansas rally being canceled initially and replaced by a virtual one is he was tired. He doesn't like standing next to losers. He doesn't like the idea that Marshall might lose. And he's standing on a stage having to prop up somebody who's not doing well in the polls. And whatever the Republican National Committee wants to say, actually, what is what's the latest approval rating? Oh, yeah, here you go. The latest poll that was published by the Washington Post on Kansas has sent it to Marshall at 52%. Has Marshall at 43% and Adam Hamilton, the pastor who we've spoken about on the show quite often at 52%. That and we've spoken about the margin of error. And it's important to speak about the margin of error because everyone's pointing that out this today that a lot of these races are in the margin of error. 52% to 43%. That's not in the margin of error, right? No, it's not. The question is, as you pointed out to me earlier, you sent me a message about overpolling and oversampling Democrats. You think that that's happening. That's actually the Washington Post when it put out this poll, which is its last, the Friday pre-Halloween poll, October surprise poll that it's just put out. It actually in an unusual move. I don't remember the post doing this. It put out like a little editorial disclaimer, which is worth people reading, where they said, look, we are aware that we may be oversampling Democrats and Adam Hamilton may not be up 52% to 43% in Kansas, for example. And I just, I thought it was interesting that they put that out. If they are oversampling Democrats in all of these polls, which we are now four days from election day, and yes, we're having stories of massive turnout and early voting. But let's say all of these polls are slightly oversampling Democrats. A lot of these polls are within the margin of error anyway. Everyone's looking at them and thinking, wow, there is a huge blue wave on the Senate races. Each of these races, Anthony, I still think could fall one way or the other. They could fall to the Republicans and it wouldn't mean the polls were wrong, right? Am I right? That's the way it works if they're in the margin. Okay, but you're, you're, you're an exseasoned, you're seasoned at this and you know, saying I'm old and been around. No, I'm just no veteran. Why do people say that? No, I mean, really what they mean is you're old. Just means that you're wise, caddy, forget about being old, you're wise. And you know something about momentum. Okay. Okay. And, and where is the wave right now? Is it a red wave? No. Or is there a blue wave? Like where is the shifting momentum? Where's the momentum? Okay. There is a blue wave and there is a red wall. And the red wall is the gerrymandering and the fact that so few states are competitive. I like the sound. So many of these races are in red states and it is money. So which is going to be stronger on election days. It's going to be the blue wall, the blue wave or the red wall. I think that's what we're going to have to look out for on the election night, right? Because there's two big forces happening. But this early voting is worth talking about because I'm now reading more and more stories about early voting around the country and we're getting 46 million people. A credible turnout for a mid-term. I mean, nobody usually gives a toss about turnout on the big numbers. 46 million people are big number. Don't you think? Yeah, I think that's a huge number. And they're seeing also the Democrats are feeling a little relieved because they're seeing a lot of turnout in bluish areas of these states. But they're not counting that chickens yet, right? Okay. So is it better right now in Maine to be the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate for Senate in Maine? That's such a good question. Because if the Republican candidate is Susan Collins, who has all of that history in the state and likes to describe herself not as the senator of Maine, but as the mayor of 500 small Maine towns, she has this unique connection to Maine, and she is up against this blue wall which is demanding change. Because part of what is driving that blue wave, keep calling it a wall, I don't think it does have different letters. That blue wave is being driven by an anti-incumbency feeling and she's up against somebody who's not a good candidate, but that anti-incumbency wave could be enough to knock her over. What do you think? Okay. Very close there. I'm going to give it to Collins. I think it's very, you're going to give it to Collins. Okay. Now let's, let's go to Rodgers. I'm going to do that list. I just want to, I want to hear you. I want to hear you. You're going to see where we are. I'm trying to hear you. I know you're going to make me take a break. So I want to get, I want to get through the list. Yeah. Rodgers, I'll say it. I'm actually going to go with Elsaid. Okay. All right. Which is a hold. It's not a take. It's a hold. Yeah. I'm not sure on that one. So I'm going to be a little more ambivalent than you, but I feel like he has the momentum. All right. Tallerico. I have gone back and forth. I am a Marco Rubio, like weathering. Oh great. Tallerico. I am spinning in my seat. I'm going back and forth. Like it. Figure that one out. So go ahead. I'm going with Tallerico. Okay. So I think this is going to win. I think Tallerico is going to win and this is the first time I'm saying it. I really hope that I'm not jinxing the kid because I really desperately want him to win. Okay. So we did Michigan. We did Maine. We did Texas. Let's go to Alaska. I think this, you don't think it is. I think this disclosure that we spoke about on the live stream yesterday by the New York Times is a problem for Peltola. I think I'm going to give Alaska to Dan Sullivan. Okay. All right. You may be right about that. You know, maybe I'm not sensing it right. I just feel like, and I could be overly biased because I'm not sampling appropriately in Alaska. I'm talking to people in Alaska that are upset about some of these things going on up there. But let's see. I mean, listen, I mean, this is going to be an exciting night. Okay. Just wait a second. Kansas Hamilton or Marshall with, of course, Donald, if, if Donald Trump turns up and praises Marshall's ass, does it make a difference in Kansas? Does, does Marshall have a nice ass? I don't know. I don't know. I'm sure I suspect Trump, though, by the end of the last year, right? The question is, is he look like Husted or does he look like Paxton? I got to look the guy up, you know, because he could show up and say, you know, you know, your ass is just not doing it for me. I don't know. I think that could, I don't know. I'm not into your ass. Do you think? And I think, you think in two, in two thousand years, the vicar of Christ, Pope Leo, he has asked for a male invalid, the Vatican announced this, he sent, he sent back his male invalid. Do you think Pope Leo was voting MAGA? If you had a bet, is he voting MAGA? If I had a hotline to God, and I could ask, you know, the Lord, whether his representative on earth was voting MAGA and the Lord had to swear by the truth, while I would say probably God would tell me no. Okay. I'm going to go. That's not a big MAGA fan. That is a pretty big thing. But here's the other thing, and you know this, Gadi, could you see the following? The Trump and MAGA team have lost 30% of the Catholics. Okay. That was one supporting. They had 60%. You told earlier today. Yeah. 12 million people have said, hey man, bye bye. And because the Pope is still the vicar of Christ, and he's still the leader of the Catholic Church, and he has signaled displeasure with all of this crazy nonsense. But I got to go back to Alaska, and I think she's going to win Alaska. Okay. And because it is so anti-encumbance, what about the theme is anti-encumbancy? What about Kansas? Do you give that to Hamilton or do you give that to Marshall? I give it to Hamilton. I think Hamilton wins. I think he's run a great campaign. He's a very good candidate for Kansas. When JD Vance is out there attacking Adam Hamilton's religion and Christian bonafides, he's not just attacking Adam Hamilton. He's attacking all the people who go to his church, which is the biggest method of congregation in the country. So I'm giving that to Hamilton. You know, there's going to be a bronze or a gold star for Chuck Schumer, if he actually pulls this off, because you've got enough moderate, despite all the rhetoric and the DSA and all the crazy nonsense out there, you've got moderate candidates running against MAGA and the beauty contest judge, just said it to be a male beauty contest judge, known as Donald Trump. Okay. So we've got to see. We're going to see what happens. We're going to take some of these questions. Wait a second. We haven't finished the list. Very quickly. Hamilton, are you doing Hamilton or Marshall? In Kansas? Just to refresh my memory, Hamilton is the pastor. Hamilton is the damn is the pastor. Yeah. I think he's going to win. I think he'll win. Hamilton is the doctor who arrested people for not paying their bills, including a pregnant woman. So that's nothing. I think, I think you and I, and I, you know, I was wrong about the Harris election, and so I have to eat crow for that, but we could be waking up very early in the UK, and we could be talking about a purpling of Kansas, which I'd never thought would have happened. First time in 94 years. We're talking about a purpling of in in Texas, the first time in 38 years. And that's possible, Katty, that's possible because of how destructive the administration has been in the last 24 months. And then I think the only other one that we should mention just before we get to Halloween until the actual race day that we haven't spoken about is South Carolina. There's a lot of attention being paid to South Carolina. The president's been there. If they lose South Carolina, as if they lose Texas, this is entirely on Donald Trump. These are handpicked candidates by him in both states and in both states. So what do you think? What do you think there? Look, I think it's not impossible. I mean, it's not, it's not impossible at all. So I think Graham wins there because of the long legacy of the Graham family in that state. And because I also know how this works, the name Graham is going to be on the ballot. And people are going to reelect that name is what I think. And listen, I don't think a lot of people are factoring that one in as a big flip. Of course, if it did flip, man, if you flipped and you got those other flips and you're sort of 53, 47, that is a big problem for President Trump because he'll have bicameral investigations with teeth. And I think that is a very big problem. And it'll, it'll, it'll, he'll react violently, you know, he'll do all kinds of crazy stuff and tweeting and this elections invalidated. And we're suing that person and we're suing this person because that's him. Yeah. Won't be able to stop himself. Even if Todd Blanchett tells him, hey, these states are totally legally allowed to certify everything's fine here, he will still press it because his name is Donald Trump. Yeah. Should we take this question? Let's take some questions. Hold on a second. We're just going to take. I do think by the way, I or I think Republicans probably hold that one. So we'll do the mass again on Monday night and on Tuesday night and on Wednesday morning when you join us for the latest. And we're going to take quick break and then take your questions. Hold on, the Russians accountable is world war. They took down a British passenger jet containing 350 people. Men in the Kremlin is playing Alex, go to ask yourself, you want to play or not. You are the prime minister. If don't, nothing. We would need to understand the policy context. All the relevant context will be structured as a framework today and disseminated into an operation order or Frago. And a Frago that says to kill the president of Russia. Yes. New from Goldhanger. Who is going to be able to pull this off? You're my shoulder, are you Sergeant Trump and Duffy? An audio drama journey like no other. Men like Duffy, they are our most valuable weapons. Devised as a technically rigorous geopolitical action forever. Where Britain plays its strongest arm against its strongest foe. Bear hunt. Available now wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, this is a great question from Open the Straight You Crazy Bastards. That's great. Corruption has been polling as a top issue for voters, but not in 2024 or during Trump 1.0. Why has tolerance for corruption been so high? Until now, I mean, I think the issue here is that corruption has just been so much more apparent and brazen in this administration. There was some reporting on it in the first term, but actually Donald Trump in the first term, he tried a little harder to stick to the rules and play by the rules. In fact, during this term, at the beginning of this term, he said on television, "Look, in the first term, I did all the things they asked me to do about taking my name off my family's company and not getting involved in my family's business, and I got no credit for it, Anthony. I got no credit for it, and because you guys did not give me credit for behaving well in my first term, this time around, I've decided what the hell is basically what he said in this television interview. So his family have been much more brazen about it. They've been far more open about it. They haven't tried to hide it, and I think that's why corruption has just been, and then you've had the Kimberley Gilfoil story just a couple of weeks before the election, front page news, a classic pay to play, pay off my Amex bill, $100,000, and I will get you access to people in the Trump administration close to the president. So I think there's just been a lot more of it going on, and a lot more exposure of it going on, and that's why people are fed up with it, and I think people are thinking, "Look, we are suffering. Maybe when the economy is doing well, and people are not, you know, finding it hard to choose between their grocery bills and their gas bills, they have more tolerance for people at the top making a lot of money, but I think there is a little intolerance at the moment for the idea that people around Donald Trump are making shit loads of money, and they are struggling to make ends meet." Any other thoughts on that? I think it's going to be the single defining issue. I think the exit polling is going to be, you guys are corrupt. I hate you guys, and I want you away from the government. You've failed the fiduciary test, and I really do believe that because I think it is a terrible thing that they're doing, and as you know, when you have corruption at the top, you extinguish hope at the bottom, and you make people think that there's no way that they can get ahead, and so you're supposed to be helping these people, and you're only helping yourself, I think it's going to be really bad. I would recommend, by the way, Peggy Nunez-Operd, I sent it to you, and I was speaking about it on the phone this morning, Anthony, about how the Republican Party could rebuild itself and you were asking me, "Can we get back from this? Can we get back from some of these structural changes?" We were talking about the corruption because I've lived in countries where corruption was rampant, and it is hard to row back from it. It takes incredibly strong leadership to say, "You said you feel like they're doing it." They feel like they're doing it. They're all countries. I think there are some Eastern European countries where they've really tried to clamp down on it, and you can do it, but it takes strong character in leadership and a lot of intolerance, and you need to show all the way down the line, this will not be tolerated and prosecute those people who get involved in it. Cleaning up this corruption is going to be, I think, one of the first things that whoever comes in in 2028 has to do, and one of the hardest things. Okay, let's choose another question, Anthony. Well, somebody here said something that I should give up the goose on the Republican party that it's irreparable. You believe that, honestly, Gatti? It's completely irreparable. No. The Republican party's completely gone. You don't, right? Because you know how much these Republicans hate Trump, right? You live in Washington. I talked to a former ambassador this morning, a better Republican forever, the inimical hatred of Donald Trump throughout the elected class and the donor class now, and the establishment is off the chart. Do you think it's too far apart? No, I think you, we spoke about this during our live tour. It was one of the questions that came up a couple of times. I think the party can rebuild itself, but it's going to have to have a pretty clean sweep of all of the people, which is a lot of them who have acquiesced to Trump over the last ten years, particularly during the last year and a half when there's been so much havoc caused around the country. And I think you're going to have to have a new crop of politicians come in, but I think the basic desire for a party with genuinely conservative principles in this country, whether it's called the Republican Party or the Conservative Party, whatever you call it, is still there. America is still basically a center-right country. I do believe that. There are a lot of people in this country who want a free market economy without the government buying up 10% of Intel and major companies and acting like a socialist government, and they want free markets, they want the government stay out of their lives, they have a libertarian street to them. And I think that segment of the population still exists, but the trouble is you've got so many Republican politicians who've got into bed with Trump. As it were guys, steady or not literally, who've got into bed with Trump over the last year and a half and over the last ten years, I don't see that they have a place in a future Republican party. They can't. They can't. They're going to have to be a clean sweep of people. But there are people out there who have always said there are Republicans out there like you have always said, like the Lincoln Project, all of those people. I'm a Republican, I have Republican principles, but I don't like Maga and I don't like Trumpism and I don't like this cult of personality, and there are enough of them around. And I think you're going to hear more from them after these midterms, actually. What do you think? You think it can come back? You're a bit more pessimistic than I am about this. You know, I want to be there for it, so I've got to have a glimmer of hope, but I see the comments and I respect the comments, by the way, because I do think this guy, Johnny Rotten F3P, hey, Mooch, the Republican party can never be trusted after this past decade. Stop thinking you are so smart to rebuild it. It has to die. First of all, I don't think I'm that smart, Johnny, trust me. But I do think he might be right, you know, but it sucks, Caddy. That's just the bottom line. All right, but let's keep going here. We've got a lot of great questions. So do you think there'll be a very heavy ice presence? This is from Deb Main. Do you think that'll happen? I actually don't think there will be a heavy ice presence. And I don't think you're going to have a heavy military presence. We had the head of the military general Cain had to actually put out a statement, a written statement saying he had no plans to send the military to polling places. We thought there was going to be a whole episode before the World Cup where we thought there was going to be a heavy ice presence at the World Cup and there wasn't. So I think, but again, maybe it's one of those things, there's just the whole Minneapolis thing happening. Yes. And I think that's part of it that there won't be. But even the thought that there might be, maybe enough to turn some people off. And they may have done the job they wanted to do anyway by suppressing the vote by making some people afraid of voting. Okay. Here's another one. SJ Davies 47. What happens to MAGA if the Democrats win one or both houses? So they go away to find the next Trump or does it just melt away? All right. Can I start with that one? Yeah. Go. Doesn't, doesn't melt away. There is too much orange dye in the ice, okay. So as the ice is melting, there'll be stains on whoever gets in the next job. They're not going to be able to leave MAGA entirely. It's just not going to happen. The next Republican will be somehow affiliated with him. If they get destroyed by the Democrats, then the 2032 Republican, I think it'll be jump ball. What do you think? No. I think it doesn't melt away. I think it's going to take a little longer than the two, than that two years. And I think MAGA, whoever runs as the Republican in 2028 has to have MAGA bonafides. We're not there yet to ditch it. I think you're right. 3236. By 36, we'll be looking in the Riviera, Iraq and anything completely unhinged coming. This is a good question. Look at Schmidt. Oh, sorry. It was not a question. Yeah. Yeah. Do you think you, you think we could be on the break of some, this is from Nicola King 2704. Do you think we'll be on the break of something catastrophic? If this administration is not stopped in literally the next week or so, they appear at their most unhinged, can they be stopped? They can be, they'll be, I think the technical term is a vibe shift. If the Democrats take both the House and Senate, there will be a vibe shift. And some of the steam rolling energy of the MAGA movement and of this White House will be sapped though, they're just the momentum will not be on their side. But that doesn't mean that the president doesn't have just over two years still in office. We are not even halfway there yet, guys. And that he can't do a lot, particularly around the world, right? So I do think there's still, there's still a lot of things he can do. And he won't be able to be stopped totally. I think that's something I keep getting asked in the UK. If there, and that's, there are, there are things the Democrats will do. They'll try to do stuff on health care. They'll try to do stuff on tariffs. They won't have the power. They won't have power for policy wise. And you don't have, they're not going to get 60 Senate seats, which is what you need to actually do things in this country. So they're not going to get 60 Senate seats. So, um, what about Kylie Miller? What do you think of the reporting of the naval buildup in the Middle East? This is Kylie Miller 1321. Yeah. I think we are. That might be something that, you know, this is relates to our last question. That might be something one of the big things that happens quite soon after the midterms. He's already signaled it. So I think you could see that we're going to have strikes against Iran when you start building up and you start spending the money it takes to push a buildup somewhere. It's very unlikely that you're not going to use it and he's going to want to distract from the fact that he's just lost the house in the Senate, never underestimate Donald Trump's need for distraction when he feels the bad news is looking at him. He did this. We, again, we spoke about this in our series on him kind of growing up in the York in the 1980s. There he was going bankrupt in Atlantic City and he just finds another headline and puts it out there and doesn't matter if the headline is good or bad. It's a distraction from that first headline. So imagine we were all waking up. If the Democrats have one or do win the House in the Senate and it's a big if we're all conscious of margins of error, he's not going to like those headlines, Anthony, right? He's not going to like those headlines and he's going to want to find something that he can do that gets people talking about something else and how much power he still has. But I think that's why he's put these rallies back on again. It's so basic. He just didn't like the idea that he looked weak and if he loses the House and the Senate, he's going to look weak because this is a referendum on Donald Trump. He's asked people to say, imagine I'm on the ballot. If people reject him effectively and everything he stands for, then he's going to want a different headline. It's as simple as that. It's not that there is a new strategy. I don't think unless you've heard something I haven't heard, it's not that there is a new strategy here about Iran. Okay. You know, I think it's something to be worried about. I mean, listen, how could you not be worried? I mean, how could you sit here, listen to this man talk, listen to the sick offense, watching John Thune campaigning and sitting there like a robot. You talk about a robot. He's sitting there like a robot. How could you not be worried? Of course you would have to be worried. You know, of course we're worried. You know, it's really bad, Caddy. And that's why I want these guys stamped out. I want him crushed. Should we take this last question before we go? So this is Mary Lee Dillon. I like this question. So who do you think Trump will blame if his candidates lose? Who's for the woodchipper Anthony? I got it. I'm my money still on hexath. Okay. I think Susie's gone. Susie wise. Which actually often happens with chiefs of stuff. But I also think she wants to get back to lobbying. That was the whole point of her whole vanity fair article. And I think hexath is gone. I don't think he can keep hexath because I think they're going to move to impeach him. I don't think Marsha Blackburn's going to get a Senate seat. I think that would be unhinged if I were to do that. Particularly if she has the choice of picking somebody that she's closer to, just wouldn't make political sense for her to do that. And I don't think she would take, let's say Trump tried to strong armor. She'd be like, dude, you're out here in two years. But bye. You know, so I think those two are the ones that are on the block. What do you think? I was wondering about JD. I don't think he's on the block, but the way that he's talking about JD, if you heard this in some of his rallies where he's making one of those kind of joke-not-jokes about how JD can't fill a stadium and how he's getting these small crowds. I wonder if he also blames, he'll blame everybody apart from himself, even though he has said, pretend I'm on the ballot. But there'll be a lot of blame going on. So yeah. But I mean, JD can't go anywhere. And JD is not giving up the vice president. Remember, he's constitutionally locked in. He was elected to the seat. Cannot be fired by Trump. So before we leave this wonderful program, Fox News announcing two minutes ago, their Fox News poll on the Texas Senate race, 49, 49, caddy, 1% undecided. What do you think about that one? And Fox News, but and Fox News, by the way, those polls always upset president Trump because they are pretty legitimate polling at Fox News. Well, and also he thinks of Fox as his channel. He's spoken about that before. So he likes their polling to be his kind of polling. I know. But I mean, 49, 49 is not the kind of poll actually that's going to be welcome to in democratic circles. That is way too close for comfort for Democrats right now. Do you think that polls accurate? If it's accurate, it means that Republican voters are not staying home. They are coming back to the party. They have been swayed by the amount of money that Elon Musk has pumped into this race. And they buy the argument that a vote for taleriko is a vote for communism. So that's I think that's a that's a that's a reality check that poll for Democrats because in the last few polls that I've seen, taleriko has been up a few points. I'm so lost on this race. I have to confess that to everybody because I I want one side of me is the machine, the machine to kind of cream taleriko. And then the other side of his way to me and he, he's got the money and he's got the momentum. So I don't know. We'll see. And also don't ignore the Hispanic voters, the Hispanic, Hispanic and Asian voters. We haven't spoken about Asian voters much, but all of the polling from 2024 to today shows that the two groups that have moved the most against Trump who voted for him. Number one, Hispanic voters and very close behind them are Asian voters. They're not as many Asian voters. Obviously in America, but in certain states and in certain districts, they can be the deciding factor and they like Hispanic voters have been disillusioned by this administration. Anyway, we will have more. We'll be back on Monday after Halloween. Have a great Halloween, everybody. The next life's happy Halloween. We're all looking forward to seeing photographs, which Anthony will post of his costume. The next life's dream will be Monday, 8 p.m. UK time, 3 p.m. Eastern. Then we'll go Tuesday, 6 p.m. UK, 1 p.m. Eastern. Then of course, our three hour marathon Wednesday, early in the morning in London, 5 a.m. to 8 a.m. London time, 12 a.m. to 3 a.m. Eastern time. When we hope, we will have lots of the results. If we don't, we'll come back and give you those when we get them. Okay, guys, we got it. We got to we got to pin ourselves, though Monday, you and me. Let's I'm going to make a little US. This is it. We got to pin ourselves. We'll do it. This way, we can either look really smart, luckily or stupid one way or the other. Remember, of course, you can sign up at the rest is politics us.com become a founding member and we have lots more content for you there. Okay, guys, and please, and please play body parts bingo while we're away with Donald J. Trump. Sorry. Bye, guys.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. President Trump initially canceled rallies in key battleground states like Kansas and Iowa, then reversed the decision, sparking speculation about fatigue, political strategy, or pressure from Republican candidates.
  2. The rally cancellations and subsequent reinstatement are seen as a sign of Trump’s resistance to appearing weak, reflecting his deep discomfort with criticism and imagery of declining popularity.
  3. Polls in Kansas show a narrow lead for Adam Hamilton over Marshall, with margins within the margin of error, suggesting close and uncertain outcomes in key Senate races.
  4. Early voting has surged to 46 million, indicating strong Democratic momentum in blue-leaning areas, though outcomes remain uncertain due to potential polling bias and oversampling.
  5. Anti-incumbency sentiment, particularly against conservative figures like Susan Collins in Maine and Marshall in Kansas, is driving a potential blue wave, challenging traditional Republican strongholds.
  6. The MAGA movement is expected to persist even if Democrats gain control of Congress, with Trump likely to blame allies or candidates for losses and pursue distractions like military posturing or foreign policy actions.
  7. Corruption allegations, including pay-to-play deals like the Kimberley Gilfoil case, are rising as a top voter concern, potentially shaping election outcomes and post-election accountability.
  8. The Republican Party faces internal division, with many establishment figures deeply critical of Trump, suggesting a potential need for a clean political rebuild in the future.

Summary:

S. amid Trump’s fluctuating rally schedule, which began with cancellations in Kansas and Iowa before being reversed. This shift is interpreted as a defensive move to avoid appearing weak, aligning with Trump’s well-documented aversion to criticism and vulnerability.

Polls in Kansas show a narrow edge for Pastor Adam Hamilton over Marshall, but margins are tight and subject to sampling bias, indicating high uncertainty. Early voting has surged to 46 million, signaling a potential blue wave in key states driven by anti-incumbency sentiment, especially against long-serving Republicans. The growing public anger over corruption—exposed by cases like the Kimberley Gilfoil pay-to-play scandal—suggests it could become a defining issue in the election.

Despite Republican backlash against Trump, the live stream acknowledges internal fractures within the party, with many establishment figures now openly critical. Nevertheless, the MAGA movement is expected to persist, with Trump likely to blame allies or candidates for losses and pursue distractions, such as foreign policy escalations in the Middle East. The analysis concludes that while Democrats may gain ground in key races, the broader political structure remains volatile, and the party’s future will depend on a decisive political realignment.

The stream ends with a reminder of upcoming post-election analysis, including a "body parts bingo" involving Trump’s references to political figures, and invites audience engagement through the show’s platform.

FAQs

Trump initially canceled rallies in Kansas and Iowa, possibly due to fatigue or concerns about his image, but quickly resumed them. This shift suggests a strategic move to avoid appearing weak, as he strongly dislikes being seen as tired or defeated.

The close margin—52% to 43%—indicates the race is competitive, and the poll's own disclaimer about potential over-sampling of Democrats adds uncertainty. This suggests the outcome could still hinge on early voting and voter turnout.

Growing exposure of corruption within the Trump administration, such as the 'pay-to-play' story involving Kimberley Gilfoil, has fueled public outrage. Voters appear increasingly intolerant of elite wealth and perceived misconduct, making corruption a top political concern.

No, MAGA is unlikely to vanish. Even if Democrats gain control, the next Republican candidate is expected to have ties to MAGA principles. The movement is deeply embedded in political culture and will likely persist.

A naval buildup in the Middle East may serve as a distraction from political losses. Trump is known to seek new headlines when facing bad news, and such military actions could help redirect attention from electoral setbacks.

Trump is expected to blame others, such as Vice President JD Vance or opponents like Senator Marshall, rather than himself. He has a history of deflecting responsibility and blaming external factors when facing electoral defeats.

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