The Tennis Edge Sportsbooks Still Aren't Pricing Correctly | Presented by ProphetX

This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. - Today, we're gonna be looking into a tennis ad. You might be able to apply into different sports and you might be able to apply today and we're doing it with Sharp Better, Isaac Rose Berman. - Here we go. - Welcome to the Circles of Channel. I'm your host, Jacob Remenia. Please be joined by Isaac Rose Berman, Sharp Sports Better and Responsible Gaming Advocate we're recording at Betfash and he wants to go behind the bet on something he likes to do with tennis, but we're also gonna discuss again how we can apply this into different sports. How long have you been using this? - Probably three or four years at this point, maybe even longer and like I said, yeah, it still comes up sometimes today both in tennis and other sports. - So is this something you're consistently looking for every time the situation sort of arises? - Yeah, there are certain matches where it comes up more than others, but yeah, it can be applied pretty generally and I think the idea is pretty generalizable as well. - So let's get into it. What is the situation at play? It's a specific game state that we're looking for. - Yeah, so in tennis you win most of the time that you serve, obviously. And so most of the time, especially in men's tennis, it goes back and forth. I win my serve, you're when you're serving and sets are often decided by a single break of serve when you win, when the other person is serving. But of course sometimes a player might go up a lot early in a set and it's basically they can't come back, right? Let's say I break you two times and so it's four zero and so for you to come back and win that set, you have to break me twice. And at that point you might as well say, okay, I'm gonna give up this set and basically conserve my energy for the next one because the way tennis scoring works is not like basketball or football where the points all add up. But if I lose the set six zero, it's the same as me losing a set six two and you're gonna get the next one. So basically what you're looking for is instances where one player will go up a bunch and then the other player is gonna throw the end of that set effectively. And what would happen is sometimes sports books would keep the game by game prices the same or they wouldn't adjust for the fact that the odds that the person who broke twice is very likely going to break a third time. I literally just used it in a match in a match that went on yesterday where Guillermo Feast was up in the second set up four zero and then of course you ended up winning the set six zero which would have been incredibly unlikely at the offset but because the other guy was like, yep, might as well just give it up. So tennis, I mean, it's a grueling sport. It's very tax on your body. So if you're, it has to not be the last set as well. It has to be the first set or something because you want to conserve your energy to better equip yourself to win the next set. That's why this kind of exists there. So that makes sense. What is the typical like average break percentage? How often does a break happen? About 15 to 20% of the time depending on the players. Yeah, and so this works best when the person who has been broken is someone who wins way more than that. Like, let's say, you know, 90, maybe 95%. Right, because of the massive server. It'll be priced like that. Exactly. And so if they're, especially if they're a massive server in general guy who's like, you know, seven feet tall or whatever, he very rarely breaks serve and he very rarely gets broken. And so if he gets broken twice, the set's over. He's not coming back. So he might as well, and he knows that. And he knows that exactly. So he might as well basically just give it up. So guys like historically, Riley O'Pelka, John Isner, Evo Carlovich, all these guys, like they go down, they might as well just give up the set and hope for the next one. And you said typically this will apply to men's tennis. Does this not work as well in women's tennis? It can, it can work for women's, but women in general hold serve a lot less. So you're looking like 70, it's sometimes like 65%. So even though it can work as well, A, if you go down two breaks, you're not out of the set as much. And B, the baseline percentage of, you know, breaking is not that high. So the odds disparity between the game states is not going to be as much. So what are the triggers that we should be looking for when you're placing this? 'Cause this might get priced in at certain spots. What is the trigger when you know that? Now I know they're not accounting for this. Yeah, so of course, basically the baseline odds at the start of the match, right? So if your, if a match starts out and you see that, you know, one guy is priced, you can get him to break at plus 500 for the entire match, right? And then if he goes down two breaks, he's still plus 500, that's it. So you basically just have to know what the baseline probability is and you can either get that from, you know, knowing his stats in general, or you can just have seen the odds early on in the match. And so I think that's for most people the easiest one because of course, yeah, sometimes it will be adjusted. And you know, I've seen people do this and they're like, you know, betting the guy to break it, you know, plus 150. And I'm like, dude, that was plus 700. It's already baked into the odds. Obviously you have to make sure that you're actually getting the right, the good price. Isaac just said something there that should always matter to you. Getting the right price. That's not just true for this edge, but it should be true for every bet you place. And that's exactly why our sponsor, Profit X, works differently because with Profit X, you're trading against other users instead of a house. The hold is thin and prices are often better. It's America's first sports stated prediction market available nationwide in the United States, everywhere except for Nevada. And right now you can use code circles off to trade $10 and get $20 when you sign up by going to Profit X.co using the link in the description or finding it in the app store. Own your edge on Profit X. Are there any players that are specifically ones that you look for this more often? They're more likely to give up. And on the other side, are there players who just don't give up on any set no matter what? - Yeah, so it's a good question. So like I said, a lot of it is players with really strong serves and really weak return games. Oftentimes older players will be more susceptible because especially when you're talking about a grand slam match where it's best to fight, like they really have to conserve their energy more. And so let's say classic example, they're up two sets to one. They go down a two break. Sometimes even only one break in the fourth set, you're like, I'm not going to grind this out. I might as well just give up this set. And so there, you know, a bunch of not that crazy examples where someone will be up two sets to one, lose the fourth set, six zero, come back and win the fifth one because they're conserving their energy. - If you get it, it doesn't matter. You don't need to win more games in your opponent, you just need to win more sets. - Exactly, it's a weird thing about sort of the way that the scoring works. It doesn't matter if you lose six zero or six four versus, you know, in basketball, you could never do this because the points all get added up at the end, of course, makes sense. Let's talk about how we can apply this into other sports now, where in this scenario, we're heading to the motivation. What other examples in other sports do you think kind of line up like this? - Yes, you're basically looking for game states where one team is effectively going to give up. And in most other sports, you're not going to get a situation like tennis where they're going to come back later on, but I think the most obvious example is in baseball. Let's say, you know, a team goes down seven or eight runs or something and maybe it's not the most important game and they want to conserve their bullpen's arms. And so you start putting position pitchers, it position players into pitch. And you know, right when you see that happen, obviously, you're going to want to bet on the over, you're going to bet on the other team to score, you're going to want to bet on every single person on the other team to start hitting home runs. All of these things are downstream of this massive change in game state. - Yeah, and even the team that's up ate nothing. If the other team puts into position player, then they might even throw in someone like that because they feel like they've already won the game as well. So they're kind of phoning it in the rest of the way. Yeah, I think that's a good example. Can't really think of any other specific giving up sort of examples, like, you know, there's pulling the goalie and hockey, that's not a case of the team giving up. That's kind of like a last ditch effort. But just that trigger in baseball, you're looking for exactly when that position player comes in because a lot of times the algorithm won't pick that up for live betting. But even if you follow baseball enough, you know kind of the trigger point where a team is going to put that player in if something to look out for. - Yeah, and that's the thing where, you know, obviously if you see them in the bullpen, you know, calling it a position player, then you're great. But if you think about it, I mean, the game state change is so massive, right? Like, I'm not a baseball guy, but the odds on the over or the odds on a guy to hit a home run, you're talking like, you know, probably three or four X, right? So even if you think there's, let's say, a 50% chance that's going to happen and you place that bet, especially let's say it's on the over. So it's not a market where it's like insanely vigged, right? Maybe the default is, if it doesn't happen, you're losing the vig, you're losing a few percent, but if it does happen, now you have a bet that's, you know, 70, 80% EV or something. And so you actually do often in these instances want to kind of take a shot. And so you're guessing that'll happen, especially since, you know, as you said, by the time they call them a position player, oftentimes the odds are going to be tested. They usually wouldn't even warm up the sky 'cause he's not throwing any heat. All he just needs to do is lob it into the catcher. So it's just, you're kind of seeing like 15, nothing gays. Something crazy like that. Like just maybe think about getting in ahead of that. I remember a Blue Jays game earlier in this easy where that was the case. But unfortunately, there was no more runs for like two straight innings after that. So it doesn't always work, but like you said, you're putting yourself in a really good position. Hopefully some great information that you can take into your betting today, specifically for tennis, but also in other sports, drop a like if you enjoyed, subscribe for more content from circles off. Follow Isaac with a link in the description. And we'll see you again next time. (upbeat music)