The Show: Scary Market Score Comps, Jadarian Price's Outlook, and More

This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Show which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch the show live this off season, you can head to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel youtube.com/atlateroundFF. We'll be live each Wednesday at noon eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode. [Music] Welcome in. Welcome in to Late Round Fantasy Football Show, sponsored by Draft Kings. David Kitchen here. Alongside my not so scary boss, J.J. Zacharyson. I'm not scared. I scare you sometimes. I mean, a few times. One of the scariest things that I've done as your boss. Oh, man, when you like tell me, don't ever mention a Tennessee Titan again on this show. Yeah, that's an everyday thing. At this point. How are you right now? It's July 1st. For those that are listening, it's July 2nds. How are you doing right now? I'm good. Draft Guides moving along. You know, again, said it last week. Didn't feel as much anxiety. I feel even better right now about where things are at with it. So July 10th, make sure you are pre-ordering that thing. It's going to be good. It's the longest one that I've put together, that we've put together because obviously you're helping as well. You know, Gdula is doing some writing in it too. So I want to shout him out. But yeah, I mean, I threw an analogy today. I was writing the players to target a void type section that I do every year. And I put an analogy in there. This is a little bit of a spoiler for folks who are going to be reading it. But I put this analogy to start to open things up where I was talking about how before CJ was born. My wife, my daughter and I went to Disney World. Okay. And we go to Disney and we enjoy a day at Magic Kingdom. And in typical, you know, she was my daughter was not even four years old yet. And in typical form of that age of a child, the next day we wake up and I say, I ask her, hey, Avery, what was your favorite part of Magic Kingdom yesterday thinking that she was going to say, you know, she really liked the goofy roller coaster, the barnstormer, or she really liked, you know, the mine car, the one roller coaster there, because she was just big enough to ride it. And she says the cotton candy. That was those. And at times, at times, I feel like the players to target a void and dark throw section is the cotton candy of the guide where you put all this effort into the other stuff. And then people just want the cotton candy, which I get, you just want the cotton candy. But I do think that if you read the other stuff and you dig into the other stuff, it makes that cotton candy taste even better. Yeah, you, you understand why that cotton candy tastes so good. All right. Yeah. Cotton candy on the brain. As far as stuff that we have going on right now, draft guide, July 10th, preorder now, or you can become a member on our new brand new Polish website, Latera.com. Also, if you go to latera.com, you can subscribe to the newsletter. Brandon, I don't want to put too much pressure on him. But and I am quoting him. He said, I think this newsletter is going to be really cool if I can stick the landing. Oh, I didn't see that. Did he say that today? Yeah. This is the one. Oh, I see it right now in this corner. So hopefully he sticks that landing. But again, we are just, we are, it's, it's just a star July, but we're, we're running all cylinders. So as far as rankings are updated on the site, rankings updated the yesterday was your rankings day. So your rankings day, my draft guide format day. And it's all, you know, we're just a well old machine right now. I'm just saying, many of them are saying, and I do have to throw out there that literally the day after the draft guide launches, I'm going on my week long family vacation. So just so everyone's aware that is happening. Don't worry. I'll handle the customer service, all the customer service issues that hopefully don't come up. Also want to just say thanks to draft kings. They have their draft one. Get one promotion. But you know, it's bestball. It's bestball season right now with the month of July right before your, your main drafts, your homely drafts. And again, we've talked about it. But we produce some bestball content because it helps with your regular understanding of like your season long leagues. And we have bestball leagues for as low as a dollar $3 for a 20 max. If you, if you want to go there or again, you can get into their $20 million. It's just crazy saying $20 million. Contest draft one, get one, promo code late round link is in the description. 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We have some stuff to get into, including some news and notes, which really just like it's kind of just opinions and I do want to play a game with you JJ. I want to play a game of buy or sell that's coming up in today's news today's fantasy news. All right, first before we get into that game of buy or sell, the price is, I have no clue talking about Jadarian price. We have, we have just some reports all over the place as far as what his role is going to be this year. Also on the cover for a possible scary comp. So your take on all this smoke surrounding Jadarian price and what his role is going to be we'll see at all this year. Yeah, I think that it makes sense as to why reports are kind of all over the place because his profile was kind of all over the place in terms of just like us not really knowing what to expect from him entering the NFL. I will say that I think that people are doing a little bit of a disservice by comparing him to other first round picks when he was the end of the first round. And if you look at back half of the first round running backs and how they performed, you know, rookie year and et cetera, first three years definitely, but versus the front half of the first round. Front half of the first round is exponentially better than back half of the first round. I did an episode of that. I think this obviously. And so it's really important to have that context first off like where Jadarian price was drafted. He is much more like a second round running back than he is a B. John Robinson, you're getting. So you can't just when you're doing analysis and looking at first round running backs, you really shouldn't be clustering all of them together because there's not the way the draft capital has worked historically. Now that being said, I'm not that surprised that we're getting the reports that we're getting where you know they're saying that other running backs might be involved because we don't we've never seen Jadarian price is like a lead back like it's just not been a thing that we've witnessed. And so anytime that that's the case, you know, similar like Alec Pierce, you know, there was the report last week we talked about where it's like always going to double up his targets. And it's like, but we've never seen that even dating back to college. And I have no idea if Alec Pierce can be and that I'm not saying that it can't happen. I'm just saying it's a volatile situation. There's a wide range of outcomes there and I feel similarly with Jadarian price like I. Objectively did not love him as a prospect because of what the production profile showed. But he didn't look nearly as bad as what people probably would have thought in the Zat model because of teammates or because of where Jeremiah love. And then you look at the Seattle situation right now, I think the one other caveat and thing that I would throw out there for people who are buying into price right now is when you have to use teammate competition to justify drafting a player and not the players talent himself. And then you really run into issues. I've been saying that with Javante Williams and how I don't want to be super like I drafted him this morning, Javante Williams, but like I don't want to be so, so overweight because that is the standard running back dead zone type archetype of player that bus or the player that don't live up, you know, that don't have the high enough ceiling. who we look at and we're like. -Well, who else is going to get the volume? I think Jervante Williams is a little bit different because the offense is so good, but I feel that way with like David Montgomery, to a degree. You know, it's like, well, who else is going to touch the ball in the back. Well, Woody Marche was OK enough last year. But, you can't make those arguments. It's not smart to make those arguments over and over and over again when we. There are things that are going to happen that we don't see happening all the time. You can sit here and say, "George Hallennie sucks, "Imanual Wilson sucks, but you don't know for sure "that Gidarrion Price is excellent." And that he's so much better than those players. You don't know. And so I do think that you have to have a little bit more of an open mind when you're approaching things that way. I will say, though, like on draft games right now, I posted a draft that I did yesterday, where I went kind of zero RB, and the team ended up being awesome on paper. And part of the reason was because Gidarrion Price fell to the 705 to me. And I had Jackson Smith and Jigba on that team, so it was a nice Seattle stack. In that case, yes. Like I said it in the market score episode with Gidarrion Price, I think, but market score, for instance, with Gidarrion Price is a little bit low on him, but it likes him more in that like Ramondra Stevenson, Jalen Warren tier, as opposed to the year two guys that he often gets drafted around. I think that's really the. If you want to think about the way that I'm viewing him and my sentiment around him, I'll get him when he falls if he's in that Ramondra range. You know, I'm high on Ramondra and Jalen Warren. I think that they're both really like solid middle-round running back gets right now. But I think he belongs at least closer, like I haven't ranked ahead of those guys, but I think he belongs closer to those players than he does the Judkins, Tutan, even Travian maybe to a degree, although I'm not buying heavily into him. You know, the year two running back tier. And so yeah, I mean, like I think these reports are pretty valid just given what we're looking at with Gidarrion Price. He's just a highly volatile prospect. He was whenever he was drafted. - Right now his DK ADP is around the end of the fifth round, like 61 or so. So you got him a full round and a half, like you said in that other tier. And I think with these reports, we might even begin to see his ADP continue to slip into that range. - Where we're going to. We're going to. That's the thing when the day of reports, like Darnell Washington, I had a Roger Stack. That was building earlier today. I got Jeremy Bernard, you know, it was like a late kind of desperation type stack. I got Jeremy Bernard and I was like, oh, I'll just get Darnell Washington in around 20, you know, because he doesn't get drafted like every draft. And someone took him in around 19 ahead of me. Like I was actually going to get him actually in around 19. - Yeah. - And someone draft him ahead just because there's a report that he's lost weight and they're going to use him a little bit more. And it seems like like in that window when the reports come out, that's when ADP insert drafts will move like a ton because you're like, I want to get it, I want to get some exposure to this guy. - Yeah, before the movement happens, but I think that there is probably a little bit of a boomerang that happens where like price maybe in that 24 hour window where I drafted him in the seventh round was becoming a seventh round pick. But I would imagine, you know, as ADP still settles in like the mid six. - Okay, next week questions, a little buyer sell based on some of the things we've been reading about. We talked about Blake Corum and the prediction at 50/50 kind of split. He's going to have with Kyron Williams. Nate Atkins with the athletic also said that he could push for a thousand yards this season. Buying or selling that, JJ? - I mean, I think you can kind of buy it. Last year he was really efficient to be fair. He had a 5.1 yards per temp average. But he wasn't that far. He was like 200 yards away from hitting a thousand yards. And that was in an environment where it wasn't like he was being used down the stretch early on in the season. It took a little bit for the Rams to really get him going. And there was that one game also where he fumbled early that Thursday night game and then Kyron came in. I think it was the Kentrick born game our front of the show, Kentrick Born. It might have been that game where he went off, you know, and had like, you know, 11 catches or something and just with Mac Jones. But regardless, Blake Corm fumbled and then he missed a block and he was just done for the day, right? Like if that kind of thing doesn't happen early on in a game, you know, that's one full game basically of like no Blake Corm production, right? And so if that doesn't happen, yeah, I think that we could see a scenario where this is much more of a 50/50 split on the ground. We saw that a little bit down the stretch where Kyron Williams is getting the most important touches for fantasy, you know, the goal line stuff, the receiving stuff. I know that you guys are probably sick of hearing it, but I'm a little bit lower than the market on Kyron Williams this year. I was last year too. I don't even think that the read that I had last year with Kyron was wrong because of the way that offense was split and how they did split the backfield. He did play a little bit above expectation based on his ADP. So it was an L from like a results standpoint, but that offense also dominated. And I don't know that we can just bank on that year over year. And so, you know, yeah, I mean, I think the core of factor is important. I think there is a chance, some chance that he gets 1,000 yards. If we're talking total yards here. - Okay. All right. This one scares me just a little bit. I guess it's on brand for the scary theme that we have for today. Are we drinking the Charlie Collar Kool-Aid? - Yeah, that is. - There was that people think he's gonna be a big receiving threat in the offense? - Yes. So, and not even like, or maybe just a receiving threats, you know, he is kind of more in line with this, with they want to do in the offense. And then the athletic head, Zayn Denani posted the top 20 players, top 20 most important chargers. And Collar comes at number 14, has a blur about his past catching ability. Guess who was not in that top 20? - Or Ronda Getson. - Or Ronda Getson. - Yeah. - Or Ronda Getson wasn't in there. And we've heard some talk about how poor that Getson blocking is. So, you drinking any of the Collar Kool-Aid? - I'm drinking the, he's gonna play a lot of snaps, Kool-Aid. You know, if you're in a point for Snaple, you've got probably scoop up early for. But I do worry about a dude who has peaked at 142 receiving yards throughout his career. And he played a full 17 last year. Now, obviously, he's played in Baltimore, he's been buried a little bit. I would be, from a regular season long perspective, best ball, if you want to throw a 20th round dart fine. Like, I'm not gonna fault you for that, especially if it's a 4-10 and build. In season long, I have a very hard time thinking he's gonna be anything but a stream. You know, like just someone that you're picking up. Because Getson's still gonna run routes. You know, David and Joku is still probably gonna get some love. And they do have wide receivers that are capable. And at some point, and you know, Marian Hampton out of the backfield, at some point, we gotta be like, like, what is the true ceiling for a player like this? You know, like, what is the true target share ceiling? Like 13%, 14% is that viable as a streamer? Sure, like you can have spiked weeks and you can find the end zone in a good offense. And we want to attach our players, you know, our tie-dense to good offenses. But I don't know, man, I think that the reason he got paid the way he did and the way that we should be viewing him is that he's a good all around tight end. And in this McDaniel system, he likes having, you know, pieces that can block and can help on that front. Because oftentimes they will be heavy. Like they'll have, they'll, I mean, they use a full back a lot. There's not as many wide receivers on the field for, you know, within this McDaniel offense. So I get it from a real football perspective. I just don't think that it's gonna be as fantasy relevant as maybe some others do. Maybe that same article, there was a lad McConkey where they talks about how he's just the number one and going to do a lot of pre-snap motion type stuff. Kind of the stuff that we have been hoping for with, with any sort of McConkey bags. All right. Shaheed breakout player, big time player, I think is what BTP stands for. We've talked about it a few times on the show. You buying or selling that he's going to be a big time player for this Seattle offense. Didn't you, didn't you write the headline here? And you're saying you think BTP is big time player? Yeah, I did. I'm like, at first I said, what do I say at first? I don't know. A breakout player and I'm like, there's no T. And I was like, oh, okay, because it's BTP. I think Shaheed is definitely the second best wide receiver on that team. Like this is, when they traded for Shaheed, it was over for Tori Horton in the short term. You know, obviously he was injured, but there was some hope for him to be a good day three pick for them. And then Cooper Cup, I think is just kind of over that age cliff and sunsetting within his career. Yeah, look, Shaheed has been one of the most efficient wide receivers on a per-out run basis in the NFL since he entered the league period. Like he's been unbelievably efficient. You saw him take away target share from Chris Alave when he was in New Orleans last year. And then after Shaheed left is really what we saw the rocket ship happen for Chris Alave because Shaheed can command targets. He's a good wide receiver. I actually am buying because I think Seattle has a very real opportunity to be more passive than they were last year, where I talked about this with NEDS a little bit on becoming a best ball bro, where people are auto fading Jackson Smith and Jigba because of course he's gonna regress. You know, and I've talked about it. Like as Yards for Target was really strong last year, He's not going to be as good as he was last year, but the thing that we have to keep in mind is that he did that on a team that had, you know, that had a really high run rate. You know, that had a really, really elite defense and usually defenses do regress year over year in terms of when you get a very, very elite defense one year, they usually are not nearly that elite the next year. Just the way that things work from a football from just a regular like math and football perspective, right? And so, and then you factor in the running back situation and they're not being a very, you know, them talking about the way that they're talking about generic price right now. And you know, what we just talked about how they're like, it's not like they drafted Jeremiah love and they're like, yeah, he's a beast. He's going to just take over this backfield and we're going to have this run game. We don't know what that's going to look like. So I think all of that combined. It's like, maybe they do pass it more than they did last year. And if Rashid Shaheed, who got their mid seasons, you can't just assume that he fully understood what was going on. If Shaheed, and I think part of it was a special teams ad, which is why they wanted them, which ended up being very fruitful for them and what part of the reason why they big reason that they ended up winning a Super Bowl. But if Shaheed is running the second most routes on that team, yeah, great. I think it's a great best ball pick right now. I moved to my rankings a little bit after thinking about it more. Honestly, it wasn't even really the report. It's like, sometimes when I'm doing my rankings, I'm not digging as deep as I could with some of these players. And then a report comes out and I start thinking about it. That player a little bit more. And I'm like, oh, yeah, I can see an out for Rashid Shaheed. He might even be a late round darts row in the in the guide because I just think that the environment is not nearly as bad as what people probably would think given how run heavy they were last year. All right, are you ready to get hurt again, Vijay? Like are you ready for some pain? This is what I want to know. Or you're just going to say, no, I don't want to get hurt because it's once the good hurt. Yeah, well, if you draft Jayden blue or March on Lloyd, you might be asking for it. And both these guys have had reports come out in the past week about their number two, like in line for the number two back. In a backfield that really does not have a time competition. It's got one starter ahead of them. So are you ready to get hurts again with either Jayden blue or March on Lloyd? I think that March on Lloyd is more undervalued than Jayden blue is right now. And the reason I say that is because now, obviously, the reason why he hasn't produced is because he's been he's been banged up. He was a from a prospecting perspective. I didn't love him, but he was a he's definitely athletic and he was definitely I viewed him as like a really, really good one B in a backfield like that. That's where like he could go, right? Maybe a one A in like a scenario where that B is just not like overly talented. But he was definitely going to be like a split backfield type player in the NFL. But now you're sitting with a scenario where Josh Jacobs still hasn't unresolved off the field issue. It hasn't been totally resolved. And if March on Lloyd is healthy, he's probably going to be the one A in that backfield. If Josh Jacobs were to be sidelined. And that's an offense. I say the stat all the time. It's since Matt Laflour got to green Bay. His teams have never ranked outside the top half of the league and touchdowns per game. And so I think that March on Lloyd is a good click right now. Jaden blues fine. I you know the thing that annoyed me with Jaden blue last year. Yes, I had a mess of dark throw. I'll take the L. But the thing that annoyed me with Jaden blue last year is that a lot of people were buying into him simply because of situation. But I actually like like them as a prospect. I thought that he was a pretty good prospect good past catching profile. You know, had a lot of speed. Obviously it just didn't click for him. And so like I'll still buy in a little bit because I did think that he was a better prospect than what he showed last year. And I would argue that some of what he showed last year was more off the field given what we heard through the media and what we heard through the coaches. So I guess I'm ready to get heard again. Okay, there you go. All right, hopefully this guy doesn't hurt us because we have we've had some high marks for him. Casey conception on ESPN, Daniel, a yes, who see I don't know how you say his last name. But that the solve the headline on Roto World and then someone use it on X also is that he's going to be used in a bevy of ways. So a bevy of ways for Casey. That's good for us. Yeah, I also saw the the chatter of Todd Munkin and them using him like he used a flowers, which is what we talked about right after they drafted Casey conception. So I think conception is a really good prospect. The model does that model actually didn't like like it had McKay lemon ahead of him, but it wasn't by much because conception had a really versatile profile lined up both inside and out. You know, this final year he was more of a perimeter receiver and he had his best season in college. You know, he did stuff on the ground as well. And that's why I think he's an intriguing player, even in a bad offense because they can move him around. He's a good route runner. You know, the biggest question mark with him is his hands and I don't really. I don't I don't like focus on that too too heavily with my wider sea evaluation because drops, for instance, is not the stickiest stat in the world, but also, you know, you're talking about like a guy who could have 10 drops in the season versus six or five or something like that. It's just not enough for me to move the needle. You had to get open in order to see that target in the first place. There's been very good wide receivers historically that have not had the best hands in the world, but they get open. And I think Casey conception can get open. I I've drafted him a little bit more over the last couple of weeks. He's not like a priority for me right now because I do think the environment isn't that strong and I actually kind of like Jerry Judy as a dark throw. I know, late and drafts, but I do I do think Casey conceptions are really good prospect. Okay, some more reports about Xavier and Thomas that you know, he is the most the most surprising rookie there. The most the biggest surprise for the bears, but also that he needs to earn Ben Johnson's trust. And we saw that kind of last year with Luther Burton, you showed me a picture or a screenshot of your Caleb William stack yesterday on draft Kings where you had Xavier on in the 20th round. Yeah, I mean, it's an additional piece that I think is going to add the very least get manufactured touches this year. He's a player that can line up, you know, the backfield and do some cool jet sweeps with and stuff like that or do some end around stuff. So I think that he's going to get some manufactured looks, but here's the thing guys like this time of year. When you're talking about shorts and guys practicing in shorts and stuff like that, a player like Xavier and Thomas is going to look a lot better. Then what he's probably going to look like in July late July, right where you know that that's that's more real football stuff. This is this is their in shorts and the speedy guys, the twitchy guys, they're going to look a lot more interesting and you're going to want to write about them as a result of that. I think Xavier and Thomas was actually a little bit undervalued as a player given the way that people viewed him post draft because it wasn't reach them drafting been round three. But everyone kind of wrote it off similarly as you wrote off Aryan Smith last year. And while I do think Xavier and Thomas is not, you know, he's still a high-risk type player in like the Zat model. He did, you know, he did play for a relatively crowded room in college. You know, not guys who were studs, but guys who at least were NFL players or you know, were like day three to undrafted type players. But then on top of that, you know, he did touch the ball in really unique ways in that offense. Like he got a lot of rushing production, which is something that the Zat model does favor and look at favorably. So I'm not like shocked by this reporting because Ben Johnson is one of the few coordinators that I would trust to be able to get a player like this really interesting looks, you know, it's the to me. And this is like his is like new. I know that I have Khalif Raymond right now, but like this is his new Khalif Raymond where you can see a scenario where he just has these like random one off spike games because he can get down the field and he can do a lot with some speed, but he's not going to be someone that we're going to probably rely on very consistently and fantasy football. So Omar is coming for the water see for three spots. Apparently he is all but locked down the three spot there for the jets, but I guess the question is, what is that worth. Yeah, I mean, we're also talking about Kenan Cedeek still being involved in the year. He's been hurt right now. Yeah, they have Mason Taylor. I tied into that that could that could at least see some looks. And then obviously, you know, Garrett Wilson is going to see his and Adnan Mitchell is I mean, I, we've said this how many times on the show like I think 80 Mitchell and Garrett Wilson are there one, two and from like a 12 personnel perspective and they could run a decent amount of 12 given Frank Reich, you know, in the way that he uses tight ends, but also just the personnel like look what they have from a from a tight and perspective. So I, I think that Omar Cooper is an okay prospect. I wasn't really overly high on him, but I wasn't low on him. I think that he was a relatively neutral type player. But I, I don't want to get over excited because there are some circumstances surrounding him that could cap his ceiling. You know Smith is obviously his quarterback too. Yeah, like he should be the wide receiver. That should be a given no like I feel like I saw this report too. And I'm like, this would be a bigger this would be more of a banger for me if it was like always clearly ahead of Adnan Mitchell, you know, where but that's not been the case this, you know, over the last two months. Okay, um, Brezett ready to serve. I mean, Jacob Brezett basically with her saying is that he just wants a little more guaranteed money to be a starter. He's making peanuts right now. I get that. Make it happen, Cardinals. Let's get past this. I agree. Um, I've cooled down on like the Cardinals hate that I like I still think Tramik Bride will be overdrafted in most drafts. I think Jeremiah love is a good pick. And I've become more okay with the with the wide receiver picks because the gap between Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson has completely gotten the it's the proper gap now right in my opinion, right? And so because like when we started our process of evaluating for the season of for the 2026 fantasy season and stuff, like Michael Wilson and a lot of dress was going ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Like back back pre draft and such, right? And now it's like a two round difference, like a very significant difference between the two. And basically how my rankings have it, you know, like I agree with it. So I'm now, you know, here in on July 1st, I and Nes made a really interesting point that he thinks that he thinks that he was I think it was I go on all these shows. I can't keep it straight, but I'm pretty sure Nes was the one who said that he thinks that Arizona could be better than expected offensively this year, which I don't think is a terrible take. Like I think it's a pretty reasonable take given how bad that defences and what, you know, we saw last year in these weapons that they have in that offense and obviously a new system, new coach, et cetera. I just think that they are not going to be throwing and running as many past plays as they did last year. And that could be a problem for a player like McBride when you are kind of buying because it's not like McBride was a phenomenal on a per round basis. He ran really hot and touchdowns and he ran an obscene amount of routes. And so that's what scares me about McBride. But the other guys, you know, there are opportunity costs and that significance. So now I'm just kind of like whatever. I might still call out Michael Wilson in the avoid section of the guide because there might be a difference in season long versus what we see in basketball. Like there's a very real chance that we just see I see a lot of people just say like Michael Wilson was so good last year. He's better than Marvin Harrison Jr. And which he might be, you know, we don't know. But I think there's a lot enough logical reason to have, you know, the gap that we see right now in best ball between those two guys. Whereas in season long, there might be less of a gap. And if that's the case, then I'll probably be more off of Michael Wilson. More good news coming out of the Mahomes camp that he is going to be ready for 11 V 11 when training camp starts. That's what you want to see if you are, you know, invested in any sort of Kansas City player. Yeah. I'm a little bit worried about my homes though from a from like an ADP standpoint. Not like a, but like like he got he had good rushing production last year. And I just like I know that he averaged over 20 points per game last season. But we also saw a lead up of him being a pretty mediocre fantasy quarterback like for multiple seasons. Like this is not I just I just think that he's got a he's got name recognition that's going to be in his favor. And I am admittedly a couple spots below ADP with with Mahomes right now. Okay. But the guy one guy is not on this list. I just didn't want to put him on here. Brennan Iyuk. We talked about this in the best ballchats in the the late round discord yesterday. Just about okay. At what point are you just like all right. He is going a little bit to overboard. I have so many Brennan Iyuk teams because like if he had his head on straight. He's going in the 200s. He could be a legit like top 100 player. If he if he had if everything was fine off the field with Brennan Iyuk and he went to Washington. He would be probably in like I'm saying again if everything was fine off the field. That's the cap. Right. I bet he would be it after giving up it. You know, having not played for a year and like you know, I know that part of that is the off the field stuff. But he hasn't played in so long. There's definitely going to be some negative market sentiment around that. What do you think he'd be around probably the rookie wide outs in Marvin Harrison Jr. where he would be drafted. I would say round seven. Okay. I would say I would say like after the Jags guys after Brian Thomas Jr. Yeah. Yeah. I would put I mean I have the Jags guys in that that same that that other range. So yes. I would say like probably before like the courtland Sutton type players. Yeah. Yeah. I would agree. Yeah. I mean, I just at some point you just have to kind of cup bait and quit catching the following knife and that's kind of that's kind of where I'm at right now. All right. So let's get into some data today's data. All right. What are we looking at here, JJ? Yeah. So what we're looking at is a chart from the draft guy and another one another table where I look at wide receiver hit rates by previous season average depth of target and that's going back from 2014 and then to 2025. And you can see how these guys played against expectation ADP expectations. So if they underperformed by four or more points by and I'll highlight them here by two or more points. If they overperformed in general, if they outperform ADP expectation by two or more points per game and then four or more points per game. I had this trend last year where I looked at deep ball catches as a proxy to finding some late round gems and instead this year, I looked at a dot because a dot actually has a is a better gradient, right? It's not as as restricted and threshold based as raw receptions would be right for deep balls. You know, a dot you can have a 9.01 9.02 and I like statistics that are more like that because you're covering your ground a little bit stronger. And so when you look at previous season a dot, you can see guys that had really low a dots and this is in the wide receiver 43 to wide receiver 60 range. So I say late round wide receivers technically, they're not like round 18 wideouts, but they're in that like range of like, you're definitely thinking bench player and they're not, you know, their wide receiver fives on your on your fantasy team. This is a stat for instance that I would be very hesitant with Khalil Shakir, who has a very low a dot, right? And so you can see on average, the players with an a dot in the previous season below nine yards, they've underperform versus expectation by about 0.6 or by about 0.7 points per game. And then as that a dot increases, they do better against expectation. And a lot of the reason for that is you're looking at late round wide receivers. They're not going to get high target shares more than likely. And so how do you combat a lower target share? You get down the field, you make splash plays and then you can find yourself in fantasy lineups that way. So look for more of those deep threats whenever you're, whenever you're drafting late, especially in a bestball environment because those are the players that generally outperform their cost at the highest rate. Good stuff. Yeah, we have lots of these cool charts in the draft guide. Don't ask me how I know, but. Matt, you come very intimate with all the tables in the. All right, let's get on to it. It's the main event. The late round main event. We want to stress, JJ, that this is for fun. This is fun. Yeah, these scary comps are for fun. We're having so much people that go to scary movies for fun. There's something wrong with those people. You don't like scary movies at all. Oh, man, no, I don't. I've got a few stories. You know what I like? I like, I don't like scary movies. I like, like, I'm okay with sad movies. Like I'm okay. I like feeling, right? Yeah. And so like I'm fine with movies that make you at the end sit back and be like, wow, that was really powerful and sad, but it's okay. You don't need happy endings all the time in my opinion. Yeah. I just, my emotions, like the jump scare, they will always, they will always scare me. Yeah. And so I was like, I'm not going to be a good guy. I'm not going to be a good guy. very comfort Julio Jones to 21 as this year's DJ more possibly. Yeah. So the way that this works is that same way that we did last week, I looked at all of the similarity scores that were over 80. So 80% match are better for the higher and picks in the drafts, right? And I saw I basically got the worst comp, market score comp of the players that had pretty strong comps, right? So like Julio Jones is 2021 is actually a decent comp for DJ more is 2026. And the reason for that, there's four factors. Overall, 80 p. So where they were drafted, positional 80 p. So where they were drafted within their position, market score, which is the stuff that we've been talking about that takes 80 p. It takes previous season metrics and it spits out a score to help determine how we should rank these guys and how we should view these guys. And then NFL year. So as a player gets older, you know, it's a little bit looser with the, the way that it looks at these scores, look at these similarity scores, looking NFL year. So like DJ more though is year nine and Julio Jones was year 11. They both change teams. Julio Jones switched from going from Atlanta to Tennessee that season. And Julio Jones ended up scoring 6.4 p.p.r. points per game. Look, all of these comps you guys, I don't think that they're going to happen, right? But I do think that it's really important when you're looking at these players, you don't have rose colored glasses on them. They, they, you are able to see the downside risk with some of these players because there were a lot of people who are like, well, Julio can't fail miserably. And he, he failed miserably. He was, he was a horrible, horrible pick that year. So just know that DJ more has a, has at least a scary floor. I think a ceiling is interesting, but his floor is definitely scary. Right. Cam's got about truthers look away because his comp is Jeremy Langford 20s in 2016. I really like Cam's got to do this year. Like I, I have him ranked ahead of Javante Williams and Travis ETN right now, which is definitely against market in the way that the market used things. So he's probably going to end up being a target for me in the draft guide as a result of that. Because I think that if you were fully healthy, he'd be like a, where he'd keep going where like Jeremiah love at the very least is going in drafts. So, but, but you have to be, you know, honest and say he is a day three pick early day three. So I don't really care as much, but he is a day three pick. And there's some ambiguity going around, you know, like surrounding him. And his top bad comp was Jeremy Langford in 2016. Jeremy Langford was the 106th overall pick. Cam's got to be was 105th overall pick. That's not even part of the equation here for finding these comps. It's just interesting. How these comps get spit out. And there is some similarity in terms of the story that you can tell. Because Langford had some production is is rookie season. It wasn't as good per game as Cam scatibus, but there was production from Langford, which allowed him to be a basically a 50th overall pick the following year. But Langford obviously fell flat in his face. He had six PPR points per game as a second year player. I don't think that's going to happen with scatiboo. I actually like scatiboo. But again, let's look at the, the, the bear case here. Bear case. So you did there. All right. This next one, this is the one that that should scare you. Just this, this is frightening. You have Giderian price with a comp of Caleb Johnson from 2025. Yeah. Look, I don't think this is just when people are starting to heal. JJ, you bring up this. I know. But look, here's the reason why Caleb Johnson got spit out. Number one, they were both rookies. Or, you know, Giderian price is a rookie. Caleb Johnson was a rookie market score. Giderian price is only at 24.3. Caleb Johnson's at 20.4. By the way, all the market score stuff, you're going to be able to get in the draft guy. We're going to have a table at the end of the draft guy where you can see whatever one's market score is. And it's only looking at top 120 picks. So top 10 round picks at running Mac and wide receiver. So a market score of 24 is not necessarily like horrible. Because you're only looking at that within the context of, you know, top 10 round players. But yes, it is bad for where he's being drafted. The overall ADPs aren't that that dissimilar. That's probably where it does vary a little bit. Again, I don't think that this is going to happen because I do think that Caleb Johnson's, you know, like, like Jalen Warren and Kenny Gainwell were really good players. And it was easier for a team like Pittsburgh to use them. Like, I think they're going to use Giderian price in some way. They also had better draft capital that being said, it's everything I talked about earlier. Like, don't assume that if no one else is there, quote, unquote, he doesn't have any competition that it can't go south because it can. Okay. If you have any Parker Washington shares in your dynasty teams, then just look away because this scary comp is Hunter Rennfro in 2022. How perfect is this comp though? Hunter Renfro and you're everyone go Google Hunter Renfro's profile reference page. And then look at what Parker Washington has done. They did had some production and then year three, they blew up and then year four happens and Hunter Renfro disappears. He had six PPR points per game that year. They're overall ADPs, 69 versus 71. They're positional ADP 33 versus 30. They're market scores. You have 37 for Washington. You have 43 for renfro. So market score liked Renfro, you know, a decent bit. And it was an L from a market score standpoint that year. And I'm afraid that we could see that with Washington because market score doesn't mind Washington. I like Washington. And so it is a little bit scary to think that this could just be a Hunter Renfro blip. And I don't think I've seen the Renfro comp made for Parker Washington. You know, like it's like people are trying to come up with reasons as to like why you wouldn't go after Washington because he had really good peripherals and he's in a good system. And I think he's going to get another contract. Things are pointing up for Parker Washington, but this Renfro comp does give me at least some pause. Yeah, Britain's strange. It's got three for 45 and they say that Parker Washington might be next on the list. So that should give the Parker Washington dynasty truth. There's some hope there. Next on the list, Matthew Golden compared to Skymore in 2023. Who did not fall for the Skymore trap in 2023? There's this feel perfect though as a as a floor comp. I don't again, this is this is the the lower outcome here. It's not the the median outcome. But you could see this happening that Skymore just didn't live up to the hype. You know, good, good situation for him. People liked his talent generally is kind of a little bit split, but liked him enough. You know, as a with with pretty good draft capital, didn't do anything as rookie year, but even still situation kind of elevated him going into year two. He had almost an identical overall ADP as Golden does almost an identical positional ADP. You're looking at wider C for 50 convert to 49 and Matthew Golden as a market score of one. Again, that's that's among top 10 round players, but it is very low. It's one Skymore's was zero. So props to market score. You know, they missed out on how to run for a but definitely hit on Skymore. Because we can look back and we can see how market score viewed certain players, just because we can calculate that. And obviously Skymore scored less than four PPR points per game that year. So again, I just thought that it was a really interesting. The fact that it was the top this actually is top comp period. But the fact that that was, you know, one of the top comps for Matthew Golden, when there are so many interesting similarities, I thought I had to shout that out on today's show. JJ, you know what scary changes are scary. Some people are just really afraid of changes like when you change a new team. So Isaiah likely his comp is John who Smith from 2021. And that's when John who Smith finished his rookie contract and he went to New England. And he was drafted as sort of like a fringe tight end one high end tight end to and he was terrible. Four and a half PPR points per game. He obviously went on to Miami, he ended up being very good in fantasy football. But there is that outcome for Isaiah likely too. I'm drafting likely. I think he's a really interesting player this year. You know, you have a situation where he will play slot and slot role and slot alignment is something that we should be looking for in our tight ends that that's going to be part of the guide this year. But there are a lot of similarities with John who Smith from 2021 when you look at overall ADP, positional ADP and market score. So yeah, there's there's some there's a bear case for Isaiah likely. You know what also scary JJ? I love these transitions getting old getting old is scary as someone who's down his 40s. I'm scared of getting old. You got Chris Godwin compared to Robert Woods in 2022. Market score does not like Chris Godwin because Chris Godwin was not very good last year. Period. Like you have to if you're drafting Chris Godwin, which I have he at one point he was one of my highest roster wide receivers on draftings. He's not anymore. But at one point I was drafting him a good bit. You have to basically be doing that by telling yourself a story that last year he was banged up and he was recovering from an injury, which I think is very valid. Right. And so you can look at market score though. And if you want to look at it completely objectively of how he performed and what year of the NFL he's in, you could sit there and say, Hey, this is a scary pick. And it is kind of a scary pick. Robert Woods 2022 is when he changes environment, another Tennessee Titan wide receiver going to die. You know his career just just just finishing up there and you know him not being able to do, although he didn't go to like Pittsburgh and stuff later on his career. But yeah, Robert Woods is a is a definitely a scary tale for Chris Godwin. I don't think that this is the outcome we're going to see, but it was, you know, a top scary comp form. We could just have a section that compares guys scary comps to Titans. receivers. Yeah, Andre Johnson. Yeah. Andre Johnson, Randy Moss. I mean, it is kind of crazy how the Titans just that is the the the the instant Deandre Hopkins, you say Deandre Hopkins still. Like, yeah, the the instant one of these guys goes to Tennessee, you know it's over. That's Calvin Ridley. I mean, maybe not. We'll see. All right. Kyron Williams compared to last year's Alvin Camara. Yeah. The NFL year is obviously different here. Kyron Williams, your five Alvin Camara, your nine. But the positional ADP overall ADP and market score are very, very similar. So market score is probably not that on point with Alvin Camara last year. We obviously didn't have the metric last year. But it wasn't totally on point with him. But I think this kind of speaks to what could happen with Williams in terms of just like effectiveness and efficiency not necessarily being there, but him being a volume getter. And that's been very helpful for him and fantasy football. It was it was there. He was better efficiency wise last year. But Blake Horum was too. And so kind of kind of plays into what we talked about earlier with Blake Horum. I just thought it was an interesting comp given I will say market score does not hate Kyron Williams, which makes me, you know, that's why I've been kind of on the edge of putting him as an avoid or not. Yeah. Okay. You know, sometimes using your imagination can be scary, but you're going to use your imagination on this one. It's Rashad White compared to Eddie Lacey in 2017. Eddie Lacey moved teams year five. And that was the last year of his NFL career. Rashad White finishes his rookie contract moves teams year five. And then it was, I mean, I'm hoping I got I'm drafting a lot of Rashad White. To me, he is the guy that you want in the Washington backfield. He's going to be someone that's going to be a target in the draft guide. So I've been drafting him a lot with that being said, the Eddie Lacey comp, there's a lot of similarities when you look at the overall demographics of what their profile says. And they're both on new teams and, you know, maybe it does go south. Yeah, we're scaring some people in the chat, I think right now. And last, but not least, you know, like how scary movies have, you know, like Red Rum. Yeah. I've got I got another scary word for you. A Rob in 2022. Alan Robinson when he went to the Rams, that is Mike Evans, one of his top comps this year is Alan Robinson as a Ram. I have been so hopeful with Alan Robinson going to the Rams too. I know people were loving the Alan Robinson. Like he was a fourth round pick firm, firmly, you know, towards the end of draft season, I know his overall ADP doesn't say that here, but like firmly in a lot of leagues, he was going like early fourth in a lot of like analysts leagues and stuff. But very similar overall ADP between him and Mike Evans, very, you know, they're later in their career. And Alan Robinson scored eight and a half PPR points per game that year. And it was, it was bad. It was not a good season. I don't think I genuinely, my heart of hearts do not think that's that's the outcome for Mike Evans this year. Am I heavily targeting Mike Evans? I haven't. But if you want to talk about like an aged player or at least, you know, towards that end of his career, who changed teams this off season, I like Mike Evans more than I like DJ more. DJ more scares me more than Mike Evans. Yeah, that makes sense. Okay. That's it for the scary players. JJ. So people can, you know, tune back in if they've been covering it like in your tell your kids, like cover your eyes or cover your ears. Yeah, yeah, you can, you can take the earmuffs off now. You got it. We're going to wrap this up. All right. I do want to say before you wrap this up, I didn't put this in the news section. But part of why we cheer like, or the magic of fancy football is just like these incredible athletes, right? And we had a report come out this week about Chris Johnson, CJ2K, diagnosed with ALS. I posted on X, but man, as someone who's just a lifelong Titans fan who loves Chris Johnson, I met him and got to talk with him at the NFL draft in 2019. Man, this guy was just larger than life and faster than anything. And to see that compared to where he is now, you know, a year into this diagnosis, it is just, man, it's just heartbreaking. So, yeah, it's a horrible disease. All the best wishes to him and his family. One of the things that I always think about with Chris Johnson, it's kind of just like a random aside and just a, I don't know why I popped in my head, but I remember he was, I think it was when he was with the Jets and they weren't using him enough, like because he was obviously, I mean, he's just like, he was a phenomenal player. Yeah. And there was a quote where he said, I don't even be in the game when he was talking to reporters when they were like, why aren't you, you know, why aren't the Jets doing XYZ? He's like, I don't even be in the game, you know, sort of like an Alan Iverson practice type type, uh, uh, presser for Chris Johnson. But like, you, you know, when stuff like this happens, it's just you read all of these like really great feel good stories about that person and how he was off the field because none of us get to really truly interact with these guys for the most part, you know, day to day or anything like that. We just see them through the media and we don't know what's going on behind closed doors. Not only with his fight with this horrible disease, but also how he is as a human and a person and watching that interview was just devastating, but also you could see the courage inside him and you could see, uh, you know, his words were just so powerful for anyone else that's going through a similar fight. And anyone else who has family members or friends that are going through a similar fight, it's horrible, you know, we need to find a cure for this like it's scary. It's everything, right? Like it's just, it's just the worst part of being human is this kind of thing. And so, you know, both of us wish him the best, you know, not that anyone is going to be listening. That's part of that circle, but, um, you know, I just, I just, I hope that they can find peace and that that things are, you know, slower to develop than they expect or they find some handles or he's able to help get the word out to get better enhancements in terms of curing this disease. Um, it's just, it's horrible and best wishes to him and his family. Yeah. When, um, uh, Pete Tripp said Matt and legend, like, even as a titan's fan watching him anytime he touched the ball. If he got some sort of scene, he was just gone. I love to have him in fantasy. Oh, because you could, you know, you'll be sitting there. That was, you know, you'd be tracking games and all of a sudden you see the head of line of, uh, yes, yes. You're like, oh my god, I just got 15 fantasy points just now, you know, like it was amazing. Incredible. I shut up to CJ2K again. Um, man, what, uh, what a testament that, uh, that he has with, with his fight going on. Okay. As far as what we have going on at late round again, just a lot of free stuff for you. So, uh, sign up for the guide, um, or sign up for the newsletter rather. You can subscribe to the YouTube channel. You can leave a comment or a review like JJ said earlier. That would help us out and then you go to late round dot com or new website for the draft guide or for the membership. We have, um, you know, we put a lot into this draft guide by we. I mean, mostly JJ, you know, some brain can do it. But, uh, you know, it's a wee thing. We're, we're a team. Yeah. Everyone gets a third of the, uh, the credit. I don't think that's how it works, but appreciate that. And then, again, shout out to draft Kings or sponsor, promo code late round link is in the description for the draft one. Get one, uh, keep an eye out for best ball streams that we're doing here on the channel as well. JJ final thoughts. No, I appreciate everyone for tuning in. It's officially July. It's kind of like the, the real start of the fantasy pool season. So, uh, hopefully everybody's ready, man, because it's, uh, it's coming to a fishbowl happening. So some Scott fishbow leagues have already happened. I was at the Scott fishbowl event in Charlotte this past week. I celebrated my 11th wedding anniversary with my wife at the Scott fishbowl event. Uh, that was great. Look, we did stuff afterwards, kitchen. It was fine. No, all right. Uh, I'm just gonna shut my mouth now. I get a promo code late round there for, uh, draft gigs. Uh, but no, I always say Scott fishbowls, like the unofficial start of the fantasy pool season, but it just seems like that's not even true anymore because of everything else going on with best ball and everything else. But it is a huge part of the fantasy season. So, um, looking forward to that. And, uh, again, I appreciate everyone for tuning in. And we'll see you next time here on the late round fantasy football show. Guaranteed human.