The Show: Deep Sleepers, Rookie Wide Receiver Hype, and More
61m 54s
The podcast features a deep dive into fantasy football player evaluations, focusing on the importance of real-world performance over median projections. Hosts argue that fantasy success relies on identifying high-upside, high-impact players rather than relying on average rankings or draft-order data. Courtland Sutton is dismissed as a low-value, fragile pick, while Luther Burden and Parker Washington are highlighted as strong, undervalued targets due to their skill, usage, and offensive fit. Alec Pierce is heavily scrutinized due to injury concerns, with the hosts warning against drafting him early. The analysis also emphasizes the impact of injury and scheme changes on player value, such as Larry Tunzel’s triceps injury disrupting Washington’s offensive line and reducing production. The hosts stress that fantasy football is about maximizing upside, not just consistency, and caution against over-hyping players with weak analytical profiles. They point to data showing that many rookie wide receivers, including Jacobi Lane and Deson Stribbling, have poor breakout scores and low yards per route, making them high-risk picks. Ultimately, the episode advocates for a more nuanced, outcome-focused approach—prioritizing players with high ceilings and real offensive opportunities, especially in season-long leagues where consistent performance determines success. The hosts also promote their fantasy football resources and draft strategies as tools for fans to make informed, data-driven decisions.
This is an I Heart podcast guaranteed human the new NFL season is here. And you should be listening to NFL daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61. It is in the name NFL daily. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day all season long. That game winning drive, maybe it's Herbert, maybe it's Gino, maybe it's my homes. We'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of the rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape. Join me Greg Rosenthal and an all star cast of co-host as we preview and recap every game. Listen to NFL daily on the I Heart radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Brett Coleman and I'm Trevor Sikama. If you love football and want to understand what's really happening on the field, check out our show NFL bro. Every week we break down the biggest plays, trends and matchups using exclusive next gen stats insights and NFL content. You will not find anywhere else. Whether you're new to football, a fantasy football fan act or a die hard fan, NFL pro will help you analyze the game like a pro. Listen to NFL pro on the I Heart radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. You're about to listen to the late round fantasy football show, which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch the show live this off season, you can head to the late round fantasy football YouTube channel YouTube.com/atlateroundff. We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern without further ado. Here's this week's episode. Welcome in. Welcome in. It's a late round fantasy football show sponsored by draft Kings David kitchen here alongside my quant. JJ Zacharyson JJ, how are you doing today? I'm good. I'm fired up, man. It's a where we're peak fantasy football draft season. And this is the time of year where, you know, in like July, I'm not hearing much from people in terms of feedback of rankings or how I feel about players. But this is the time of year where people start to test me, if you will, not in like a character way. I mean, in like a, you know, why are you so high on this guy? You know, you're wrong about this. Explain why you feel this way. And I love that part of this game because I do think that there are continue to be some like general. And my, this is my opinion, of course, flawed way of looking at fantasy football, right? There was a big discussion in the late round discord today. Because if you guys have been listening to any late round podcast episode for the last couple of weeks, maybe months, it seems like any time I talk about like sort of like a boring, you know, no upside type selection. I just seem to bring up Cortland Sutton, you know, Cortland Sutton's always getting thrown under the bus. And I did it on becoming a best ball, bro, where I think in best ball, Cortland Sutton's a little bit of a different type of case. But I don't know, like number one, I think that that's still today, people are so best ball brained in the fantasy football space, where they don't recognize what is going on on season long platforms and homeligs and 95% plus of this audience is listening for that type of analysis. Like they want to know how they can beat their ESPN ADP or the ESPN ADP. They want to know what their league mates might be doing if they're drafting on Yahoo, right? They want to know how to beat their rooms on those specific platforms. And best ball is totally different. You know, there's stuff I was tagged in a tweet right before we came, uh, uh, went on air and someone was saying like, can you explain, you know, because there was a tweet by by our friend, Pat Thormin about Bayshall Tutton and Bucky Irving and someone was like, can you explain, you know, the Tutton, like, like why you would prefer Tutton over Irving given this information? It's like, okay, I can get all, I can go through that and I can explain it. Um, but if you look at ADP on these platforms, like Bucky Irving is going well ahead of Bayshall Tutton, even though best ball is not doing that in season long drafts and in the season long format that were all, you know, participating in right now. The majority of platforms and majority of leagues will still see Bucky Irving get drafted ahead of Bayshall Tutton. And so just because it's going on in best ball in that way does not mean that it's going to go that way, uh, you know, in your homely draft. In fact, there's a lot of instances where it won't. And so, you know, the Courtland Sutton discussion got brought up today. And look, the bottom line, if I were to just like really dumb this down into just a few sentences, the bottom line is that when I get into round five, round six, round seven, round eight of my fantasy drafts, I do not care in most formats where you're starting one quarterback, two running max, two or three wideouts, a tight end, a flex. I don't care about a player simply meeting expectation. I do not care if Courtland Sutton is drafted as the wide receiver 30 or 30, 30 to 35, any finishes as the wide receiver 27. I don't care. It does not matter. That does not move the needle at all in fantasy football. And if you look at season long platforms, like ESPN right now is crazy their ADP. Courtland Sutton is being drafted ahead of players like Parker Washington, Mike Evans, you know, Jordan Tyson, I take all those guys easily, easily over Courtland Sutton. And it's not even close, you know, so my philosophy in fantasy football is that I am trying to win, right? And this is why, you know, to rant even more. And hopefully people, you know, enjoy this and aren't going to just yell at me for seeming like I seeming like I'm angry. I'm not angry. I'm passionate. This is passion, right? Part of the a huge reason why I hate rankings contest is because rankings contest are based on median outcomes, median outcomes don't win fantasy championships. Sealing outcomes when fantasy championships, you need league winning players. I do not care if the RB 20 finishes as the RB 19, if the RB 25 finishes as the RB 23, it does not matter to me. I want the RB 20 to finish or at least have the outcome of the possible outcome of finishing as the RB 10, I need that with my picks when I'm drafting them, and of course, as you get through your drafts, it's not really that possible. And I'm not saying that you only do there's a balance to it. You know, there are some teams where you might want to get Courtland Sutton if you have really deep rosters because maybe there's some safety to it. I don't think there's that much safety to it, though, because there's a guy we're going to talk about on today's show and there's Jalen model being added to this equation. I'm like, I don't understand why people are still so gravitated towards, you know, Courtland Sutton or like, I see so many tweets about JK Dobbins, and I'm like, did you guys see what he did last year without Jonah Coleman in the offense? He wasn't even that unbelievably usable last year, and then now you're pumping him up, you're getting all excited. I just, I'm trying to use this platform to show people that fourth place does not matter in fantasy football. I can give you a fourth place roster, you know, I can take you down that path, but without injury, I don't think Courtland Sutton is a first place type player. I think he's a fifth place type player, you know, and so I'm trying to do my best to explain all of that as I go through, and that's why my rankings look the way that they look, and I'm not playing this in a, in a, in a, in a, in a safety type way, you know, I'm trying to explain that I'm looking at range of outcomes, and I'm going to chase that higher and now come because in the end, that is what's going to win your fantasy championship. Yeah, that's like that, you know, the median projections, like we talked about, you know, they, they can only carry you so far. I know people want like custom rankings for their draft based on projections, listen, that is, that's a trap. You talked about it on X speaking of X, I just posted, I said, we're live now, and JJ is passionate. That's before you even said you're passionate, so that's how I, that's how I know you guys, you guys could either have me just being a boring nerdy guy sitting on here talking numbers, or you, I genuinely care, I want you guys to win, I want to be a good analyst, and I want to go through the processing, the reasoning as to why I feel the way that I do about this game. I want my analysts being exciting and nerdy. Is that too much to ask? So passionate and nerdy definitely nerdy. That's, that's the whole brand. Listen, we have a lot of stuff to talk about, but before we do just a few minor details. First, we've got the draft guide over late round.com, the newly read.com, if you're just now kind of tuning in, or you've taken some time off, go to let round.com, it's going to be a brand new website, you can get your membership there, you get the all access membership, where you get all the guides, all the inside our access, or you can just purchase the draft guide. There either or, and while you're there, sign up for the newsletter, it's free, and people are enjoying it. And we also would like to thank our sponsors, draft kings for sponsoring this show. And after this show, JJ will be drafting a baseball team. So on a stream, it'll redirect there. If you're listening on demand, you can go back and watch that draft happen. It's a good time. Interactive chat, all that good stuff. And speaking of draft kings, they do have the draft one, get one promotion still around. There's other contests, other baseball contests. I'm saying it right now. $1 bestball contest is better than a free mock draft. And that might, that might be a little pushback from people.
but you know, when there's some skin in the game, it's a good way to prep for that. We have best ball rankings on the site, and also if you're a new customer for draft kings, they have the Play Week 1 NFL for free with a minimum $5 deposit, and you can go in your promotions tab, and they've got a whole bunch of other promotions as well for existing customers. So JJ, we have set the table, and I think, I mean, we have so much to talk about. So without further ado, let's just get into it. It's today's news. - Today's fantasy news. - All right, let's start with some wide receiver talk, Rut-Roh-Roshi of Rishi Rice is, you mentioned it yesterday. You had like an apex riders draft. You somehow landed Jefferson in the second round, but then it came time for Rice to come back around, and you use like, yeah, pass on that. We're seeing a lot of clips on X and social media platforms where I'm just not being comforted as a rice owner. - Look, he's one of the toughest players for me to rank this year, because I don't think that he's exceptionally amazing at the game, I think he's good, but I think he's good in a specific role, in a specific way of running that offense, where he's a very good yard after the catch receiver. That's what he was at a college, too. You can go, the Zat model didn't really love Rishi Rice, admittedly, I was wrong with Rishi Rice, but I do think that he's being used in a way that I didn't project, which was a mistake, and him playing that slot role, he just has been peppered with targets, and he's good after the catch, but in terms of just like a traditional, typical, high-end wide receiver that you see in fantasy, he's not necessarily that kind of player. And to me, there's a lot of fragility to that kind of archetype, because if it changes just a little bit, if Cyrus Allen really does break out, if the offense turns a little bit more into a run-heavy one with Kenneth Walker there, all of a sudden, Rishi Rice, you could see the downturn of his production. And so I think it's a little bit different in Bestball, where there's gonna be that production, and I'm trying to stay at market, basically, in Bestball, and I got him a little bit cheaper when all that stuff was going on with him. But even still, it's a tough profile to really buy into. So as I'm doing drafts this time of year, I'm able to really be tested with my rankings in the way that I feel about players. And there's gonna be players that move up and down rankings based on news items or more research that I'm doing, or just legitimately, I'm on the clock, what decision do I make? And when I was on the clock there, I had the choice between Chris Alave, Devante Smith, and Rishi Rice, and I chose Devante Smith, because I am very high on Smith. If someone, I might have to write him as a player to target based on my overall ranking of him, 'cause I think he's like a two-three turn guy, and a lot of platforms have him at like three-four. And so he's a player that I think can ascend and take the next step as the alpha in that offense. You look at his splits, obviously it's a little bit different, but you look at his splits without AJ Brown. He's been like close to a 30% target share type player. Like there's a lot to like about Smith, and the upside to Smith. I think he's, you know, if you wanna talk candidates of being like this year's JSN, I think he's gotta be at the top of that list or close to it with like a McConkey, you know, Nabooca, whatever. But yeah, I mean, I'm very bullish on Devante Smith, and I'm getting more and more scared of Rishi Rice, and actually after I made that pick, 'cause when that report came out, about how he wasn't moving well, Rishi Rice, how his need didn't seem 100%. So now we have like a tangible piece in reason to really move Rishi Rice down the board. And so I'm gonna be moving them down the board, 'cause I'm just more and more scared of what we might get from him in a very, like it could be fine if he gets peppered the same way, but it's still a fragile situation overall. - Okay, next we have a burden to bear. Luther Burden, boy, he scared us. He sure scared us. You actually, you actually messaged me and Gadoula. - Yeah. - And you said, listen, if Burden is out for the season, we might have to shut down the company. - Yeah, company would be shut down if Luther Burden was. - Yes. - So it late round fantasy football would cease to exist if Luther Burden got out. - Only a growing injury though, and they're thinking he's gonna be backed by week one. - Yeah, I mean, it sounds pretty good, and the other thing too is that there was a clip of him the day after, like a couple days after, walking around a camp and there wasn't a noticeable limp, and a lot of the reliable PT's and doctors that are on Twitter, you know, Jeff Mueller, et cetera. They were saying that typically if it's a, you know, grade two type strain, there would be a more noticeable limp with the player and there wasn't with Luther Burden, which made them seem like and feel like this is not a super, super serious situation and that they're just playing it safe because obviously he's an important part of their offense. So I did move him down a little bit within the tier, but I've seen some takes of like, let's take Roma Dunes A over, I'm not there. I still think Burden is a very, you know, look, I think that the Burden versus a Dunes A thing at this point, there's very much a like real football versus fantasy football divide. I think that's going on here where Roma Dunes A might be the better, more classic wide receiver in terms of his ability, playing that position. That might be very versatile across, you know, different offensive schemes and he could play anywhere, right? But I do think that we have to lay around, obviously we have to layer in scheme and what that might look like. And with Ben Johnson, we've seen it for years with Amin Raus St. Brown. We saw it even last year. He is so good at scheming his guys open to create yards after the catch. And Luther Burden is one of the best yak players that we've seen come out in some time. Like he's very, very good with the ball in his hands. And so if he gets some layup touches, you can sit there and say, oh, there's no skill involved in doing that. I don't really care, you know, like because they're clearly doing that because not only that, I think there is a ceiling. Now, someone might sit there and say, didn't you just say the exact opposite about Rishi Rice? No, I mean, I said the same thing about Rishi Rice. And I'm more fading rice and I'm targeting Burden. And the main reason for that is that I think Burden has more general ability at playing the wide receiver position in a lot more room for growth to be a legitimate stud in the NFL. Whereas I think we've seen what Rishi Rice generally is, right? And then you have the backbone of Luther Burden being an excellent prospect, according to the Zat model. It all comes together to me just being very high on Burden. And the reason why, you know, like he's my highest exposed player and best ball right now in the earlier rounds. And look, it goes back to my rant earlier about shooting for upside. All of that, you know, I understand what median projections might be showing, but I also can see a scenario where Luther Burden goes nuclear this year. And he just has a really, really good season. And I do think that, you know, this injury is just a scare more than anything else. You know, it's not perfect. You'd rather him not be hurt at all. But it does sound like he's going to be fine for week one. And hopefully plenty of points to go around. We'll talk about that in a second. All right, this one I was proud of, PRP or to not PRP. That is the question. Alec Pierce, supposedly it for it came out that he had like a second PRP shot, which is plasma replacement therapy, I think, maybe, something of that fact. But basically, it would not happen today. - You should know with the peptide stuff, right? - No, don't bring up peptides. You're gonna trigger an ad. But I'll say that as someone who's been like, "Yeah, he'll be fine. He'll be fine." The fact that we're debating this, I'm just like cooling way off on Alec Pierce, right? - Yeah, I would agree. Also really quick, someone said it's loved in season, not Burden. I think it can be both. - I think people are going to be shocked. - We'll talk about this in a second. We'll talk about it in a second. There is a segment. We'll talk about all the Bears players. Will we? - Yeah. - Yeah, save it, yeah. - Okay, I'll save it, that's fine. All right, Alec Pierce, what if I just started talking about Sam LaPorta or Tua or something. Right, his kitchen takes a sip of whatever smoothie he's drinking. The Alec Pierce stuff is frightening, man. I mean, there was the report that came out, and they're like, "Oh, he got another injection. "No one knew the timeline of it." But then Chris Ballard comes out and was like, "No, there wasn't an injection. "To me, there is still video." And I'm not a doctor, but there's still video of yesterday of him signing autographs for little kids that were where he's limping. He had his surgery in what March? I think it was something around then. And yeah, I'm frightened out of my mind. And I think this is a team that needs to get Keenan Allen needs to do something at wide receiver. Maybe they trade for Keishan booty. And honestly, booty would actually kind of work as a replacement for Alec Pierce 'cause he can get down the field. But I don't think that's the way that booty shouldn't necessarily be used in the NFL regardless. They need to make a move because their wide receiver depth chart is frighteningly bad. I love Josh Downs, but him as like the alpha, and with no one behind him, obviously, it's gonna run through Tyler Warren and Jonathan Taylor. It's scary. I don't think that you can draft Alec Pierce right now. I'm scared that he's gonna go in the pup to enter the season and we won't see him for a handful of weeks, but we'll see. There's obviously a discount that you're gonna see, But, but I think that in a lot of way.
a lot of season long leagues, there might still not be because people just aren't as on top of what this is revealing right now. Yeah. And you've talked about a few times how you just don't understand what people have not been as high on Tyler Warren. Yeah. It's kind of interesting to me. Like, I feel like, you know, Lovelins get, look, look, I think Lovelins are better player than Tyler Warren. The Zat model loved Colson Lovelin. But it liked Tyler Warren too. And he was pretty good in year one. And also now he could just walk into like a 25% target share pretty easily in that colts offense. Whereas, you know, I think Lovelin can see a really high target share too. It's just there's obviously more pieces that they have to feed in set offense. So yeah, I think Warren is a little bit more interesting than he was before and there hasn't been any budging of his ADP. But I think the offense too, like, I don't know, man, you know, Alec Pierce is really good for real football purposes the way that he can stretch the field. And that opens up a lot up front for them and I do worry what this could look like without him. Okay. We have some Puka Jacobs uncertainty, Adam Schaefter yesterday. I thought that we were kind of past Adam Schaefter yesterday, though, said that he wouldn't be surprised if something happened with Jacobs, some sort of punishment during the season. And also we have Puka injury, Puka, maybe not being able to play the first game. Like, we don't know what's going to happen, but what's your take on this? They're being oddly specific about Puka missing the first game. The first game. Yes. And I'm thinking it's an international game too. Yeah, I'm thinking there might, there might be a one game suspension coming. Like, you know, not to say that like Schaefter knows all or anything like that, but I don't think that like he would throw something like that out there for absolutely no reason. And so we might see something happen with Puka. He's going to move down a little bit in my, like, I'm still going to have met. I'm going to have a wide receiver too, but I've had him actually ahead of Jamar Chase because I just like the projection and the potential form a little bit more, but they're in the same tier. You could go either way. But that's enough for me to move chase over him officially. Maybe even, you know, if we get the news, he's not going to be able to play week one. Maybe even moving down into that next tier. But don't overstate, you know, what one game would do, especially early on in the season when there's no buy weeks and stuff. But Josh Jacobs thing is really interesting because I've been lower than the market, you know, the season long market with Jacobs. I think that if you were healthy with no none of this uncertainty, probably be like a two three turn type pick and obviously, and best ball, he goes a lot later than that. But in and manage season long leagues, he's still ranked really high. Like there's a second third round. Yeah. None of this is baked into his ADP on these major platforms, which is why I have him as a fade right now, you know, on those platforms because there's a lot of good wide receivers there. And even, you know, I wouldn't be taking like certainly wouldn't be taking like a Derek Henry over him or something like that, or I would be taking a Derek Henry over him. And so, yeah, I mean, like I'm still scared of Jacobs, you know, he's been banged up a little bit too. And he's kind of, I know that he was a younger prospect, but he is getting up there from a touch perspective, you know, and getting so much work throughout his career. So it could be sort of on that, that wrong side of the curve in terms of fantasy production for Jacobs. All right. We don't, we have a lot to talk about. So we don't have to talk about this a lot, but I just want it to, everyone that listens to this podcast watches, Hey, Kyler Marie is a starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. Not the guy that was completely terrible last year, the other JJ, the bad. Yeah. But I'm not surprised at Kyler starting. I'm a little bit, I'm getting a little bit concerned about what it might do for Justin Jefferson. But like you said, I had the 107 in this draft. I took Amara St. Brown and then Justin Jefferson fell to me in the second round. And I still, I took him, but it still felt a little uneasy just because of the ambiguity at quarterback, but I'm trusting the process here. I think Kyler's an upgrade. And maybe it was one of those situations where he just needed more reps and needed to feel comfortable as like the starter and just, and just having that spot. So we'll see. Okay. We got some Parker Washington steam. You talked to, you talked about it on the becoming a baseball bro episode, but if he stays on the field, which with their reporting, he's going to be out there, you know, there's four wide receivers competing for all these spots, but if he's going to be on the field pretty much all the time, then he deservedly so deserves to get all the steam. One of the most mispriced players on season long platforms is Parker Washington because he goes a lot later than, you know, in baseball, let's say. But even in baseball, if you're taking him around five, I think it's fine because like we're looking at a situation where we're like, we just have to think logically from Jacksonville's perspective. When Parker Washington took over, I talked about this on the targets episode with Silva, but when Parker Washington took over, they were the third best team in touchdowns per game last year. Washington had an absurd yards per out run rate. He was so productive, the Liam Cohen offense often goes through the slot and Washington can get vertical too. He's a very good player, right? And so I think that all the things that we're hearing are sort of pointing us in a direction of they're going to want to continue doing what they were doing that was working because why would they not do that, right? And so that's why I just keep getting more and more bullish because there's a lot of good, you know, reading, reading between the lines, not even between the lines, they're just being really overordered about it, but there's a lot to like about what's being said about Washington. And if he is a full time receiver, remember last year when Travis Hunter went down, he was still a little bit under that 80% route share mark Parker Washington was. If that goes up even by like 5 percentage points, if he gets, I mean, if he gets more from a route share perspective, I mean, there's a lot of upside with Washington. So I'm very in, especially in the season long platforms. And you mentioned it. I just pulled up some ESPN ADP Parker Washington 102 right now. I mean, what's talking about eighth ninth round, which is, is crazy. He's go, you look at guys like Michael Pitman, which is he's going around or two ahead of him. Yeah. And look, I understand that people are like, well, that's not going to happen to my league, blah, blah, blah. I get it. But a lot of people still are anchored to, you know, what goes on in these, on these platforms from an ADP perspective, like even on Yahoo right now, you can get Parker Washington after DK Medcalf, Brian Thomas, Alec Pierce, Marvin Harris, and Junior, I'd be taking him over Carnell Tate, who goes ahead of him, and I don't mind Tate either. It's just that I think Parker Washington has a good bit of upside and he's, he's just under price on those platforms. Okay, let's talk about starting depth charts, starting depth charts because obviously we've had all these coaches come out, talk about their time share that they're splitting between all their running backs. You know, we got news that like George Alani was RB1 for the Seahawks, how much, how much do you put into these starting depth charts, especially when it involves rookies? Zero. Zero. I don't care about the depth charts. I kind of, maybe a little bit care about where they're placing the wide receivers and how they see them in the slot versus not because a lot of depth charts will distinguish that. I don't care about the depth chart stuff. I care about what they've been saying out of Seattle throughout the summer. And I, it feels like the market is just ignoring what the news has said about that backfield. And look, with backfield stuff, I care a little bit more about what, you know, beatwriters are saying and such because that comes down to a coaching decision, the amount of volume these guys will get. And I look at Seattle and last year we're screaming and saying, why aren't you using Kenneth Walker more? Why aren't you, you know, why are you spending this backfield the way that you are? Zack, sharpen A and low and behold, they won the Super Bowl and they kind of handled it perfectly given what they accomplished, right? So there is this confirmation bias from them that says, hey, we don't need to run these guys into the ground because look at what happened last year when we had sharbs and Walker and the way that Walker was able to be fresh and get Super Bowl MVP, right? And so they go out, they get generic in price who has never been, you know, a, a full blow and bell cow because he's playing with Jeremiah love in college comes out and they're like, hey, George Alani is going to be involved in this offense. Hey, maybe we see a little bit of manual Wilson too. Oh, and by the way, one of the most under-talk storylines in all of fantasy football has been the fact that they think Zack, sharpen A is going to be back a lot sooner than the standard November type timeframe that we would expect given when that ACL surgery happened, right? And if we see sharpening that he avoids the public, which means that he would likely be back the first four weeks of the season, right? He could be back in September, like, and I'm not saying that that's a lock, but the fact that they're talking about sharpening in that way, you know, like, I think they would want a split backfield in an ideal world, right? And so that's why I haven't really gone all in with with generic in price, even though there's some trends that would favor him, you know, like standalone, rookie in the middle rounds, ADP wise, generally smash, right? And I don't think he's a bad pick. He's certainly not a fade for me, but I do think that you should be aware that we're probably going to see some sort of split in that backfield probably more than you would expect based on the other play. Like, George Hullani is a very replaceable type player, you know, but I do think he's going to be involved a little bit, you know, to start this season. Okay. We generally try to keep it to skill players, but this one is too big to ignore. The Larry Tunzel is going to be probably missing the entire regular season, possibly even more with the torn triceps. He, of course, is the office of tackle there in Washington. So bad news for the commander's offense. It's horrible news. There's an offense that I was really optimistic about.
But I'm still optimistic about, but it's one that we're going to see a lot more of them under center in the last two years. We've seen them run out of shotgun according to true media at an 89% rate, which is by far, by far the highest rate in football. When you're under center, you can just do more with like roll outs. You can, you know, the running back can do a little bit more in terms of using the whole field instead of just part of the field and having good strong offensive line play can go a really long way with that, right? So yeah, it's a big deal. My rankings will probably drop those guys just a tad, maybe not like a digs as much or a McLoren as much, but maybe a Jaden Daniels going below a guy that, you know, in the same tier or, you know, Jacquery Croskey Marriott and Rashad White, you know, like dropping a little bit because obviously, you know, there's there's a worse offensive line there. That's he's one of the most important players to any team in football. So it's a it's a pretty big deal that he's down. Okay, staying with that same, same offense, Stefan Diggs is back. So we're going to change his color over here to the Washington commanders color. If you're just listening, we've got a list of guys in the free agent list that they don't have a team and you still have Tyreek, Keenan Allen and John Smith was on there, but he's, no one's even talking about John Smith. I think he was even yeah, so we're changing Stefan Diggs back to the Washington commanders colors. Yeah. I'm very into digs. I think that he's a really good value across platforms, even in baseball, you know, speaking of a guy that I would take over Courtland Sutton, I would take Stefan Diggs over Courtland Sutton. I think it's a great fit in Washington. He's a player to target in the draft guy or a dark throw just because I didn't know where his ADP would land. Yeah. I mean, like, you can move him inside out, unbelievably good, per-out run efficiency last year coming off of the ACL, too. I just don't think that he's necessarily like completely lost a step, at least in terms of maybe he's not as good down the field, but Terry McLauren can play down the field and he's good at that role. So I think that the pairing makes a ton of sense. They should have probably just done this from the start instead of like seemingly, you know, like sort of was talking about the IUK stuff, but I think digs is just a great, great fit and mesh with Terry McLauren. Yeah. RIP, those IUK shares of whatever you have and whatever you have, Dynasty, best ball of read draft, whatever. Isaiah likely, likely, they're Ryder Siever 2 there in New York, quick thoughts about that. I'm not surprised, you know, they don't have a good wide receiver 2 outside, you know, it's just neighbors and then a bunch of dudes who, you know, I wasn't a big Malachi Fields fan coming out as a prospect. I think he might end up starting because he is a good blocker. Darnell Mooney's fine, Darius Latens fine, but they're not, you know, game breakers. Isaiah likely, you know, he was a dark, or he was a target in the, in the guide as well, because he does check some of the trends that I look for from an ADP expectations standpoint. One of them being, you want to get these tight ends that play a lot in the slot. And I think that they're going to move him out there a lot. They have to go Johnson there too, so they can run a lot of 12. And so I think likely can easily, you know, outpaces ADP this year. The new NFL season is here and you should be listening to NFL daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61 last year. We had Mike McDonald, Sam Darnal on the field after the game, but that was last year. If you're a football sicko like me, NFL daily is your kind of show. It is in the name NFL daily fresh content in your feed every day, all season long. Matthew Stafford coming off his MVPC on a dazzling darts from Matthew Stafford. Like time trades that shake up the NFL and, of course, those Seahawks trying to run it back and win another Lombardi trope, the Seahawks win Super Bowl 60. They are bringing Lombardi back to the Northwest. If it's happening on a football field, NFL daily will cover it. Listen to NFL daily on the I Heart Radio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Have you ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score? That's exactly why we created NFL Pro Stroke, got a man wide open, touchdown, Seahawks! Every week we use exclusive next-gen stats insights and NFL content to break down the biggest stories, matchups, and moments from around the league. We go beyond the box score to uncover the numbers, the tendencies, and details that help explain what actually happened on the field. And don't worry, this isn't just a show for stats experts. We use advanced analytics to help tell the story behind the game, turning the numbers into insights that every fan can understand and enjoy. So whether you're a casual fan learning more about football or a hardcore fan who can't get enough analysis, our goal is to help you see the game. If you've ever wanted to know why a playwork, how a matchup was won, or what most fans missed on Sunday, NFL Pro delivers insights you simply can't get anywhere else. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Okay, we have two minute Tracy reports that Tyrone Tracy taking all the two minute drill snaps there. Does that change your opinion at all on their value compared to Skatibu? I mean, maybe a little bit. Yeah, it's a team that's probably not going to be that good. But Skatibu, like on paper, slash, you watch them too, has actually been a better pass catcher than Tyrone Tracy has, even though Tracy came out as a hybrid, you know, he was a wide receiver in college. Skatibu had a great receiving resume in college. He was really good last year, you know, as a receiver and he got a lot of work as a receiver. So I still think they're going to use him in that way and for him to be sort of that bell cow for them as long as he's healthy, of course. So yeah, I mean, it hurts Skatibu a little bit if this does come to fruition, but we'll see what happens. Okay, this is the bear segment I was talking about. I don't know if you saw what Ben Johnson said. He wants to break the record for most points scored in a season. Yeah, that's amazing. Ben Johnson is our is our king, our fantasy football king at this point. Yeah, I'm, this is a thing that I want to say about about like Colston, Lovelin, Luther Burden, Roma, Dunesay is that I genuinely think that we could see all of them at least like match where they're being drafted in terms of ADP expectation, because this offense could just straight up funnel through those guys in the passing game. Like, I'm not going to be shocked if the three of them have a 70% target share this year or something like that, 75 even, like something crazy because it's just very clear. There's not that much depth behind them, a wide receiver, you know, obviously they're going to throw to the running backs as well. And then Colston, Lovelin is just such a monster at tight end that even when they're in 12 and 13, which I think they will be because they drafted Sam Roush, but I still think that all three of them can be okay. And so if you're drafting in a lot of leagues, which I know not all of you are, but if you are, I would still get exposed to all of them in bestball, you know, like I, I just, I don't think that me liking Luther Burden does not mean I don't like Colston, Lovelin. This is exactly what I hate about fantasy analysis and the way people consume it is that if you like someone, it doesn't mean that you don't, if I like pancakes, it doesn't mean I don't like waffles, you know, I still love waffles, they're as long as they're gluten free. So yeah, I mean, I'm in, I'm in like I, I think that this bear's offense could be really, really special if things really come together. And our late round charity bestball league that I was in, I just took all of them. I took Caleb Williams, I took Lovelin, Burden, and a dude and say it's like, listen, you guys aren't going to, you guys aren't going to get one over on me. You either draft them or, or let me have them. All right, there's some big Boston hype. We're not talking about the Patriots. We talked about in Zell Boston. I was in a draft on the stream yesterday on the late round channel where Boston went 103 overall. And one, one oh three. Yes. Yes. Like a rookie draft or like a, no, this was the draft Kings. This is what happened. And then conception on went like one 15. Oh, one, okay, you're talking about 100. I thought you're talking about the 1.03. No, no. 100. I guess a hundred there. You know, sorry, a hundred and a hundred and a hundred and a hundred and third. Oh, I thought it was someone, someone who was just throwing the time to see that. Someone called me a boomer the other day is like kitchen such a boomer because he still says die because I say like the 1.01 or the 1.01. I think in that case, you got a, you know, you got it. Because that's how we say we're like, oh, I got the 103. You know, yeah. Okay. See, look at Brennan Brennan's agreeing with me in chat. So I'm up one out here. Okay. That's on Boston. I thought he was an okay prospect. I wasn't super high. I thought he was like a Portland Sutton type player. It didn't mean I honestly did not even mean to bring up Sutton's name again. Sutton has been a good player throughout his career has nothing to do with like what's happened in the past. But I, you know, I think that there he is of that archetype of like Tedero McMillan as like a potential or Drake London as like a really, really potential. I don't think he's there giving some of the stuff we're actually going to talk about it in today's data. Um, but with that being said, I
you know, I think that if you want to throw that dart at Boston, be my guest. I'm still in on Casey Concepcion as the better get in that wide receiver room because there's a lot of data to support that from his that model perspective and I thought he was just a better prospect. But I don't think Boston was like a bad prospect. You know, there were, like there are guys that are getting steamed right now that I'm shocked are getting steamed. Like we're bad analytical prospects. There was some stuff that we're okay and I'll put Denzel Boston still. Okay, speaking of Brennan, he said earlier, have you guys dragged Sutton yet? Did I miss it? - Yeah, we dragged him. - It's just, I got to do it on every show. And then once Sutton finishes the top 15 wide receiver, I will certainly hear it at the end of the season. - Yeah, all right, so again, we don't have a ton of time, but Cardinal Tate and Jordan Tyson, their stock's going up. The Kylimin stock is going down. - Yeah. - He's like, we'll talk about that draft yesterday. He, he fell to like 120, which is like three, three full rounds past where his ADP was last week. - I'm scared of Kylimin from the standpoint of, in a managed league, you lose confidence in players. And then he's going to be one of those guys who are just like, oh, he's not playing enough to start the year. I got to do something. Maybe I drop him in a shallower league. And then you're in this position where like he blows up the second half of the league. Or second half of the year, which is very possible. So I am a little bit nervous about that. But Cardinal Tate and Jordan Tyson, they're very good prospects, like just period. Like look at what the Zat model was saying. I mean, Jordan Tyson especially, I'm not like shocked that he's getting steam because the numbers were just so, I mean, he had like a 99th percentile breakout score. The dude was phenomenal on paper. And that's the kind of stuff that typically does work out. You just got to stay healthy. You know, Tyson has to stay healthy. But I think both of them are pretty good picks this year, especially Tyson at his ADP, because on most platforms, he goes a lot after where Cardinal Tate's gone. Okay. And then real quick, if we're taking any questions, any quick thoughts that you could be like, I probably should have had him with this. Let's talk about, let's go to today's data. Let's do it. All right. Without further ado, let's get to today's data. Today's data. A lot of wide receivers are getting steam right now. These rookie wide receivers. And the interesting part about this year's draft class, and I talked about this in the guide. I talked about it on the show a lot. We had a lot of day two picks. We had a lot of top three round picks at wide receiver, but so many of them objectively had pretty like mid-profiles. Now, I had said on these shows, do you remember this kitchen where I was like, it was a probability driven stance where if you have so many of these players out there, some of them are going to naturally hit. Like that we don't expect to hit, right? But this was by far the hardest year for me to figure out what to do at wide receiver after the first handful were gone. To me, there was a big four in this class where Tyson and Tate were clearly the top two for me. Mackay Lemon and Concepcion were sort of in the next tier. And then it was sort of like a choose your own adventure with what you wanted to do after that. We're like, you know, I could make an argument for Cooper and Denzel Boston next, which is what I think I did in my rankings and tiers and such. But then it gets into like-- - Gribbling and-- - Yeah, and like Stribbling and like Jeremy Bernard. And so what I wanted to do here was show you guys here all the wide receivers since 2019 and who scored 12 or more PPR points per game as rookies, okay? And what I wanted to do is show you their career yards per out run, which is relatively predictive in college. And then their breakout score, which is a number from zero to 100 that looks at adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempts, so that adjusted is for program strength and age, okay? So anything like this isn't percentile, but anything in like the 30 to 40 range, like 40 I think is like a 50th percentile type number for breakout score. But you can see the average breakout score among these players. And you can see all the players listed here and you can see their breakout score as you can see their career yards per out run was 60.5, right? And then you can look at and mind you, some of these guys were early to clear, some of them weren't the biggest miss from a breakout score perspective is definitely Terry McLoren. You know, Lad Maconkeys was really low, but you can see in their career yards per out run, a player like Maconkey, a player like Tank Dell, you know, they were really high in the yards per out run department. And that was one of the reasons why you wouldn't necessarily just fade them completely. It's when you get a combination of the two that are low and you're like, okay, this is like Terry McLoren is an outlier, right? 1.57 career yards per out run rate in a zero breakout score, 'cause you just didn't get there from an age adjusted production perspective. Now, you scroll down and you look at this year's class and these are the guys that are getting steamed the most. I list Denzel Boston, Jacobi Lane, Deson Stribbling, Cyrus Allen, and Caleb Douglas. And you can see all of these guys are below a 40, then this is where I was saying that Denzel Boston really wasn't that bad because he had a, you know, a 44 breakout score, that's not that terrible. But it's certainly well below this average that we've seen from these guys who have hit 12 and more PPR points per game as rookies. Jacobi Lane was at 36, Deson Stribbling below 30, you know, Caleb Douglas, well below 30. And then their yards per out run rates, only Cyrus Allen and Denzel Boston had career yards per out run rates above two. Now, Jacobi Lane is that sort of a disadvantage there because he declared early. So you would imagine if Jacobi Lane went back to college, we'd probably see a higher yards per out run rate than some of these other guys. But it's just, they're objectively not great analytical profiles. And the reason I'm bringing this up is because we are more than likely going to see most of these guys bust from a, from a jet, like just not be the most, you know, wide receiver, three, two type players in fantasy football. I think that we're gonna see probably one of these guys hit because again, we have so many of them in this class. And if some of them are getting hyped, we're gonna see an objectively bad analytical profile probably hit. And I'm gonna talk about some of these guys in a second. But I do think it's interesting to at least like, look at this objectively. And remember that we do get steam from random players a lot in the fantasy football world. And it just gets more and more every year because there's more and more people that are wanting that information, you know, more beatwriters that are trying to give us that information. And it's not like the beat reporters are doing anything malicious or wrong. They're just saying what they believe and then, you know, going from there. And remember, we're solving something different than what teams are solving. Like I think a really good example of that is Jacobi Lane where he might be a very good situational type player for them in year one. And he might be very acrobatic. And there might be some really good parts to his game, which I think there were when I watched him during prospect season. The problem is there wasn't that much like consistent separation from Lane that I saw and also the analytical profile was kind of mid. Like it wasn't, it wasn't terrible, especially because it was an early declare. But it certainly wasn't great. So if you look at it from like what the Ravens need, he might be phenomenal, right? But if you look at it from like a fantasy perspective, you're in a probably run first offense or run heavy offense where he might not be the top three target getter on that team this year. And then all of a sudden, you're like, oh, yeah, he's not going to hit that 12 PPR points per game mark, you know? So like, you got to think of it through that lens as well. So I just wanted to try to stay objective through this. We are going to see some of these guys, or at least one of these guys probably hit, but I don't want to get too out of hand because generally speaking, players who had had better profiles than what we've seen from some of these players. - Yeah, I remember around this time last year, a guy we were talking about a lot was Trey Harris. You know, he had a ton of steam. And so you have to be weary of some of that camp highlights, videos, although I have seen-- - I would love for somebody to like aggregate all the stuff that's happened in the past from a hype perspective and just look at how few those players like actually hit, you know? And I guarantee you, it would be pretty shocking. - So Justin Watson is, or Cyrus Allen, Justin Watson 2.0. I mean, there's, it seems like out of chiefs camp, doesn't matter what, you know, what year it is. Out of chiefs camp, there is someone that we are getting irrationally excited about. - Yeah. - Shout out Skymore. - The new NFL season is here, and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61. Last year, we had Mike McDonald, Sam Darnal, on the field, after the game, but that was last year. It is in the name NFL Daily, fresh content in your feed, every day, all season long. Matthew Stafford coming off his MVPC. - On a dazzling darts from Matthew Stafford. - Big-time trades that shake up the NFL. - AJ Brown is loose. - And of course, those Seahawks trying to run it back and win another Lombardi trope. - The Seahawks win Super Bowl 60. - If it's happening on a football field, NFL Daily will cover it. Listen to NFL Daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. - I'm Britt Coleman, and I'm Trevor Sikama. - Have you ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score? That's exactly why we created NFL Pro. - Bro, got a man wide open. Touchdown, Seahawks. - Every week, we use exclusive next-gen stats insights and NFL content to break down the biggest stories, matchups, and moments from around the league. We go beyond the box score to uncover the numbers, the tendencies, and details that help explain What?
actually happened on the field. - Fires it out the flat, the Barclay, who beats one man, spins past another, leaps over a bird. - And don't worry, this isn't just a show for stats experts. - So whether you're a casual fan, learning more about football, or a hardcore fan who can't get enough analysis, our goal is to help you see the game in a whole new way. - If you've ever wanted to know why a playwork, how a matchup was won, or what most fans missed on Sunday, NFL Pro delivers insights you simply can't get anywhere else. - Listen to NFL Pro on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. - Let's get on to some deep sleepers. - The late round main event. - So I want to preface this by saying, everything relates back to cost, right? So I just went over all these players that have questionable analytical profiles, and from a process standpoint, you don't want to go overboard with them. But going overboard is more from my perspective of a dynasty perspective, 'cause there's a bigger cost in acquiring, 'cause it's a future type selection. Whereas in a season-long league, Zon Stribling, the first guy in this list, is a double digit round pick, and one of the best offenses in football that has been consistently one of the best offenses in football. So go after that. So we're gonna talk deep sleepers here, the qualifications in order for these players to find themselves on this list. I looked at fantasy pros ADP. I looked at past 200th overall, and as I say, not in your league, I know that these guys, like obviously, Zon Stribling is rising up draft boards, probably not a 200th overall pick, but I used it as the threshold, just to have some sort of way of finding these players. So let's just kick things off with Zon Stribling. I definitely, like I said, thought there were question marks for him as a prospect. It's very rare to see a high-risk player, which is what he was in the Zat model, a player who the model did not like as much as the draft capital to a degree that it flagged him as a high-risk player. If you look historically at top 100 picks who were high-risk players, Only Tank Dell was, there's 20 of them that ended up, Only Tank Dell was able to score 12 or more PPR points per game as a rookie among the, I think there's 20 high-risk top two, or like day two wide receivers. So Stribling finds himself in that bucket, not a great bucket to find yourself in. 31st percentile breakout score, Yard's Per Out Run in his career in the 20th percentile. But again, I do think that Stribling, the more I've thought about Stribling, the more I've thought about the situation, I do think that he has a good YAC profile and we've seen good YAC profiles like this, be pretty good in a Kyle Shanahan offense, and there's obviously opportunity there, right? Like, I was thinking about this, I would not have ranked the Zahn Stribling where I ranked him, not only because I've done a little bit more thinking about the fit in the scheme, and you know, like just doing all that, but also if we knew Ricky Pearson was gonna be out this year. Like he'd be like a first round rookie pick if we knew that was happening for sure, right? So I think that he's a good blocker seemingly, and so all of that, I think he's actually a pretty good dart throw and manage leagues right now. - Yeah, and I know that we don't love like keeper questions 'cause everyone's keeper leagues are different, but I would say that this list right here, if you're in a keeper league, you need to pay attention because a lot of these guys you could keep for next year. - Yeah, yes. - If they go off, and that's a whole point of keeper leagues. All right, next on the list, we have Martian Lloyd. - Yeah, I mean, look, I, again, he's a player that the Zat model wasn't like in love with, and by the way, I just got word that the Amecha Buka injury is not serious. So, we're, we're good. - Yeah, I knew it was. I wasn't gonna speak it on this show, soft tissue injury, so I didn't wanna say anything, so I'm glad. There was like a, for anyone listening, there was like a two-hour period where Amecha was hurt, and it sounds like it's not serious. Anyway, the Zat model didn't love Martian Lloyd, but definitely viewed him as like a complimentary piece. He had a really good athletic profile, 111 speed score, which is really strong. We already talked about Josh Jacobs that workloads getting higher. He's already banged up. He said the off-the-field issues. I do think that offensive line could be a problem, but I've said this stat so many times in the show, Matt LaFlor offenses, since he got to Green Bay, have never ranked outside the top half of the league and touched on his per game. It's just a good scheme. He's a good coach. They should score points. And Martian Lloyd's actually healthy right now, so I think that he's a good guard throw on the final round of your drop. - And we talked about it earlier on the show with the news item is that he actually went to rehab school. Like he's, it's like a Christian Watson situation last year where Watson was like going, I think he went to like Germany or something. I feel like all these athletes just go to Germany whenever they, whenever they're really best. - That's the Kobe Bryant bind. - Got something in the water. Christian McCaffrey did it too, right? - Yeah, okay, Ken Allen next on this list. - I know he's not currently on a team unless you count my, unless you count my best ball teams 'cause he's on a lot of those. I feel like I draft him in the 18th round every single best ball draft at this point. - Is this wish casting, JJ? - Be a little bit. - Yeah. - Guys, I need desperately need Ken Allen to sign anywhere. Just to be active playing football this year. But look, I don't think he was, like I think that people looking at him as washed, but he led the chargers last year, the wide receivers in target share, yards per out run and targets per out run. 26% targets per out run rate. So the moment he signs somewhere, his ADP is gonna rise. If he signs in Indianapolis, you're getting a massive, massive gain in value immediately because of the way that Alec Pierce is trending and the way that that offense needs a wide receiver. So I think you should be drafting Ken Allen in your leagues right now because he's hopefully gonna sign somewhere and he wasn't as bad as you probably think last year. - Hoping the Chris Baller and the Colts front office is listening to the show right now. All right, next on the list, a guy that we just talked about, Trey Harris. - People would be shocked, but Trey Harris is my highest exposed wide receiver in best ball right now. - Really? - Yeah. And it's not because I think that he's an undeniable talent. He was an older breakout, but crazy per-rout run metrics during his final season or like towards the end of his collegiate career. Last year, it wasn't super inspiring though. He ran fewer than 300 routes, 1.1 yards per-rout run rate, 15% targets per-rout run rate, but there's no more Ken and Allen. And Quentin Johnston, there's just a massive gap between QJ to Trey Harris, especially in best ball. It's not as bad and managed season-long platforms, but he's commanded over a 17% targets per-rout run rate just once in his career, QJ has. So this is really just a question of, what if Trey Harris just progresses a little bit as a year-to-player and QJ, they don't like the fit? I think QJ can be a decent fit with his yak ability in the offense, but Trey Harris has some ball skills. I mean, we saw that highlight real catch that he had yesterday where the Fender was all over him and he just, he just must him kinda grab the ball from behind the Fender's back. So it's really just a question of like, this is a good offense, you're pairing him in a good offense. I don't think you really in most season-long leagues need to target him per se, but if you wanna throw him at the end of your bench to see what happens in week one, I think that's fine. - Friend of the show Matt Waldman was talking about how that was one of his specialties in college is tracking ball in the air. So, and if you look at the highlights again, you get easily excited about Trey Harris and not so much about Quentin Johnston because anything that you're seeing on social media right now with QJ is him dropping a pass in everyone groaning. But yeah, I'm with you there as far as Trey Harris and I'm also with you, you know I'm here for the Nick Singleton hype. - So he's technically just inside the top 200, but I wanted to give you guys another running back that I think is interesting at the end of your draft. So Tony Pollard has posted below a 0.8 yards per out run rate in three straight seasons and he's 29 years old. And you saw last year there were some pretty bad usage splits when Taj A Spears was healthy. And speaking of Spears, he's just been mostly used as a pass catcher in this Titans offense. Now obviously there's new coaching staff we'll see what happens. But Nick Singleton probably would have been drafted higher. Had he not had that foot injury at the senior bowl this year? He has good size, he has good speed. And that size speed combination, it could end up being, I said this during draft season, it could end up being a CJ pro size situation for sure. Like we see this kind of archetype of running back come out and like DJ Giddens even to a degree where it's like, like really phenomenal receiving numbers and really athletic, but they just don't have it. Like they don't have that vision and that ability to be a reliable running back. But I will still throw that dart given where they're being drafted for an 80th percentile plus reception, best season reception share and adjusted yards for team pass attempt for a player with this size and speed. It's very, very intriguing. And oh, by the way, there are often a coordinator Brian Dable has not been afraid of using day three running backs as rookies. Tyrone Tracy, Camp Scadiboo in recent seasons. So I would not be shocked if he just lets the best talent went out and maybe as the season goes on, we see a little bit more Nick Singleton. Okay, next on the list, Cyrus Allen, someone, if you were a prospect guide purchaser, you did not see in the process.
aspect guy. Why is that? Yeah. He was on the prospect guy this year because he did not get invited to the combine. So he was, I did rank him as a top 48 player in the rankings, Cyrus Allen. So he is there, but there was no profile on him because he was not invited to the combine. But he had a 42nd percentile breakout score that could be way worse for a day three pick his career. Yards for our run showed that earlier 2.07. He ran 37% of his routes from the slot, which obviously is a Rishi rice, you know, spot in that offense. But he was really efficient from the slot and you can get down field. That's the, that's the piece with Cyrus Allen that if this works out, it could really unlock a lot for the chief's offense. He had a 79th percentile A dot in college. He had an 85th percentile despite being smaller. He's like 180 pounds, but he had an 85th percentile contested catch rate in college. I just think the chiefs really need a player like this. Patrick Mahums has struggled throwing the ball deep over the last couple of years. And I do think that Cyrus Allen can fill some sort of role that, you know, it's like a better Taekwondo in this offense. And maybe there's even more to his game if he's able to develop. Yeah, I thought what you said in your becoming a best ball bro episode where he is better in a redraf league than a best ball league because if it doesn't work out, you just cut him. Right. Right. Yeah. I mean, I'm still drafting him a best ball, but yeah. Yeah. Okay. Next on the list, cover boy Greg Dolszicz. So wide open pass catching room. You're always looking for that for your tight end breakouts. He only ran 145 routes last year, but he had a 2.31 yard per out run rate. There's been five tight ends drafted outside the top 12, who had between 103, 100 routes run since 2014 and a yard per out run rate above two. So very efficient, but not a ton of routes. Three of those five tight ends outpace their ADP expectation by by four PPR points per game or more, which is kind of crazy. So I'm in on Dolszicz as just a dart throw to see if maybe he can develop something with Malik Willis and be one of the top target gutters in that Miami offense. Okay. Next on the list, we have a guy who they're calling petty ice. Yeah. Pat Bryant. There's some like this is one player where there's like undeniable camp height, right? Yes. And I wrote about this in the prospect guide. So I'm just going to cite some of this because I do the year two profiles, right? So this is Pat Bryant's year two profile from weeks one to eight. Pat Bryant saw just a 36% route share average 3.6 points per game and just a 0.48 yard per out run rate. That's horrendous. But then Troy Franklin, they started scaling his usage back and then Bryant saw a 69% route share and a 1.58 yards per out run rate, which is pretty strong for a wide receiver. So that's from then on out. They were going to feature him in that playoff game before he was concussed and he left that game. Cortland Sutton. Oh my gosh, there's his name again. He's going to be 31 in October. He's command. Cortland Sutton commanded a target on fewer than 20% of his routes run last year. Denver's been top five in passing volumes since Bo Nick centered the league. I could see Pat Bryant carving out a role. And there I say, there I say towards the end of the season, pushing for more snaps at the X in the Denver offense. Who's currently in the snaps for the end? We won't we won't we won't. I think people can cannot cannot figure that out. Last but certainly not least guy that Philly signed on Tavy and Wix. I do like the Sutton bit, by the way. It's bits. I think we got to just keep up the Sutton bit just to yeah, until he goes for like two touchdowns week. Oh, I'm going to be done. I'm going to be destroyed. That's inevitably going to happen at least one week. Yeah. Don Tavy and Wix. You got Mackai lemon banged up. Wix is getting reps is the number two wide receiver. Concentration and like drops have always been a concern for Wix. But look at this. In 2023, he gave us a 2.04 yards for outrun season. In 2024, he saw a target on 25% of his routes run, which is a very, very strong number. What if he just brings it together because he needed to change a scenery and Philadelphia and that is an offense that needs a pass catcher to step up. No AJ Brown, Eli Stowers. It sounds like is not really going to be that dude here in in 2026. And obviously, Mackai lemon is banged up. Throw that dart at Don Tavy and Wix. Do it in Bestball as well. I have so much Wix in Bestball. I have a lot of Pat Bryant in Bestball too. But if you're talking manage season longlings, I think he's a fine end of draft target for you. Okay. Callie underscore max says listener for about eight years. This is the first time I'm catching you guys live. So happy love y'all. Listen, we love you too. And also right after this show is done, it's going to redirect you to the Bestball stream where JJ is going to be drafting a team on our YouTube channel. He might need to take a drink of water in between then, but make sure you're sticking around for that. And with that being said, let's wrap this up. All right. As a reminder, like, subscribe, comments, all that stuff. We like reading the feedback that you all have. Even if we disagree, JJ, you know, you are known sometimes to engage with people that have differing opinions. I like engaging with people on the internet. If they want to have just like a normal discussion about football, you know, I, I, I'm on Reddit a lot where I'm chiming in and trying to, you know, explain a stance that I have. And, you know, some people will just continue to, to trash me. That's fine. But there are many more people who embrace that and engage in it. And I think that that's healthy. Right. So I will gladly have discussions about players that you disagree with me on. I'm going to be wrong about stuff. You're going to be wrong about stuff. We're just trying to get better and we're trying to really enjoy this hobby. And, and you know, get through the season and have a little escape. I think everyone needs a little escape from this world. And that's what I'm here for. That's why we love fantasy football. If you haven't listened already, make sure to listen to the players to target episode with Evan Silva earlier this week. If you're a baseball bro or wants to become one, listen to the episode that's dropped today. And we appreciate you. Keep on giving your feedback and hanging out with us during these live drafts. It is appreciated. Go to latrown.com. You can sign up for the newsletter for free. Get it into your inbox two, three times a week. And then also new membership at the latrown.com. You can come in insider or all access. If you're all access, you get both the draft guides included in that. And again, shout out to draft kings, promo code, latrown. Final thoughts, JJ. I'm just glad you've got a great internet now at your house. Yeah. It was great. It was a seamless show. After, after last week's s show, this was a seamless show. It's a seamless show. You know, when we, when people ask like, what, what episode do you want to, you know, submit, submit for an award, submit. This is definitely the one. So all right, stay tuned after this. JJ will be live on the channel for draft. We appreciate you all. We love you all. And we'll see you next time here on the latrown fantasy football show sponsored by draft FFL season. The new NFL season is here. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day, all season long. That game winning drive. Maybe it's her, but maybe it's Gino. Maybe it's my homes. If Fernando Mendoza or any of those rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape. Join me, Greg Rosenthal, and an all-star cast of co-hosts as we preview and recap every game. Listen to NFL daily on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. If you love football and want to understand what's really happening on the field, check out our show NFL Pro. Every week, we break down the biggest plays, trends, and matchups using exclusive next gen stats, insights, and NFL content you will not find anywhere else. Whether you're new to football, a fantasy football finag, or a die-hard fan, NFL Pro will help you analyze the game like a pro. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The host critiques overreliance on median projections in fantasy football, arguing that actual season-long outcomes and upside matter more than average rankings.
Courtland Sutton is seen as a low-upside, fifth-place type player, not a top-tier fantasy asset, especially compared to players like Parker Washington or Mike Evans.
Luther Burden is highly ranked due to his strong skill set, versatility, and potential for breakout performance, despite injury concerns that are viewed as minor and temporary.
Alec Pierce is heavily discounted due to uncertainty over his recovery and limited depth in the team’s wide receiver room, raising concerns about his availability early in the season.
Parker Washington is identified as a top-tier undervalued pick on season-long platforms due to his high target share, efficient yards per route, and strong offensive fit.
Starting depth charts for running backs are dismissed as irrelevant, with focus instead on coaching trends and offensive schemes that reflect real-game usage.
Larry Tunzel’s injury is a major blow to Washington’s offense, leading to a drop in value for key wide receivers like Stefan Diggs and Terry McLoren.
The discussion emphasizes that fantasy success hinges on chasing high-upside players and understanding true performance trends—not just ADP or projected averages.
Summary:
The podcast features a deep dive into fantasy football player evaluations, focusing on the importance of real-world performance over median projections. Hosts argue that fantasy success relies on identifying high-upside, high-impact players rather than relying on average rankings or draft-order data. Courtland Sutton is dismissed as a low-value, fragile pick, while Luther Burden and Parker Washington are highlighted as strong, undervalued targets due to their skill, usage, and offensive fit.
Alec Pierce is heavily scrutinized due to injury concerns, with the hosts warning against drafting him early. The analysis also emphasizes the impact of injury and scheme changes on player value, such as Larry Tunzel’s triceps injury disrupting Washington’s offensive line and reducing production. The hosts stress that fantasy football is about maximizing upside, not just consistency, and caution against over-hyping players with weak analytical profiles.
They point to data showing that many rookie wide receivers, including Jacobi Lane and Deson Stribbling, have poor breakout scores and low yards per route, making them high-risk picks. Ultimately, the episode advocates for a more nuanced, outcome-focused approach—prioritizing players with high ceilings and real offensive opportunities, especially in season-long leagues where consistent performance determines success. The hosts also promote their fantasy football resources and draft strategies as tools for fans to make informed, data-driven decisions.
FAQs
NFL Pro focuses on breaking down the biggest plays, matchups, and moments in the NFL using exclusive next-gen stats and analytics. It goes beyond box scores to explain what actually happened on the field, helping fans understand the game in depth.
NFL Daily offers fresh, daily content throughout the season, covering highlights, game analysis, and player performances. It provides real-time insights into key matchups and storylines, making it a valuable resource for fans following the NFL journey to Super Bowl 61.
Fantasy rankings are based on projected performance, but the speaker emphasizes that actual outcomes matter more than median projections. Players with high upside and consistent production are prioritized over those with low statistical profiles or fragile roles.
Luther Burden is seen as a high-value player due to his strong playmaking ability and versatility. Injury reports are viewed as minor scares, with many analysts believing he will be ready for Week 1 and has the potential to have a breakout season.
Parker Washington is highlighted as a mispriced player on season-long platforms, with his ADP placed much later than expected. The show emphasizes his high upside and consistent performance, especially in a team with a strong passing offense.
The show downplays the importance of depth charts, especially for rookies. Instead, it prioritizes coaching statements and offensive schemes, which provide better insight into player usage and workload.
Chat with AI
Loading...
Pro features
Go deeper with this episode
Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.