Go back

The Show: ADP Discrepancies, Injury News, and More

63m 45s

The Show: ADP Discrepancies, Injury News, and More

The Late Round Fantasy Football Show discusses a wave of injuries impacting key players across the NFL, especially wide receivers and running backs, which is reshaping draft strategies and player rankings. The hosts emphasize that while injury risks are high, they also create valuable opportunities—particularly in late rounds—where undervalued players like DeZon Stribbling or Rishi Rice emerge as strong picks. The analysis highlights that fantasy success hinges on understanding positional volatility, as injuries at the wide receiver position disrupt planned depth charts and force adjustments in draft value. Data shows that third-down backs generate minimal fantasy points, with only a few players consistently producing, suggesting that their role is not a reliable fantasy asset. ADP discrepancies across platforms—especially ESPN’s overvaluation of certain players—are noted as a major issue, with the hosts advocating for more balanced, injury-aware decisions. The show encourages fans to avoid overreacting to preseason hype or isolated injury reports, instead focusing on value and usage patterns. Key players like Jaden Higgins, Jordan Tyson, and Mike Evans are under significant scrutiny due to injury concerns, but the hosts maintain that these risks are manageable and often outweighed by upside. Ultimately, the episode promotes a cautious, data-driven approach to fantasy football, where flexibility, injury awareness, and late-round value are central to success. The hosts also promote their draft guide and all-access membership, emphasizing the importance of staying updated with evolving injury news and player performance.

Transcription

12509 Words, 65411 Characters

English
This is an "I Heart" podcast. Guaranteed Human. You're about to listen to The Late Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch the show live this off season, you can head to The Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com/atlateroundff. We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode. [MUSIC PLAYING] Welcome in. Welcome in. It's The Late Round Fantasy Football Show, sponsored by DraftKings, David Kitchen here, alongside JJ. We have some no-huddle data, JJ. And we're kind of in no-huddle mode right now. Yeah, it's been crazy. And look, I've heard from you, if you want updated rankings, we will be updating ranking. Or I will be updating rankings today. You don't need to email me. You don't need to message me. I know. It's coming. I know you have a draft tonight. I get it. And there's a lot of stuff that happened. It's just that time of year where people are-- One other sort of PSA that I want to throw out there is that we're very fortunate that a lot of people read the draft guide and get the draft guide. And unfortunately, if you do email us and you ask about your particular league settings and you're asking, you send like a very long email about-- it's just impossible for me to get to everything. If I were to get to everything, I wouldn't be able to do my job at all. It would be a full-time job. So if I ignore that email, it has nothing to do with like that. I literally can't get to everything. I mean, we get questions all the time about like, hey, my league settings are x, y, and z. And I would love to sit down and talk through your league settings and what to do. It's just literally impossible. There's just a lot of people. I'm very thankful and grateful for that. But hopefully, you guys understand, which is why, honestly, we have the price points where we do with the things that we sell, is that seems fair. I'm active on Discord all the time. I'm there answering questions during the live streams and stuff. And I can't get to everything, unfortunately, just the nature of where we're at right now. Yeah. Speaking of that, we have our draft guide available, lateround.com. You can go on lateround.com, the new lateround.com, and sign up for the newsletter. Speaking of ADPs, we had an ADP newsletter. Biggest ADP differences from Frank Adula that went out this morning. And then we also have the all-access plan where you can become a member. And if you become an all-access member, you get everything that the insider members already have, but you also get the guides that we release every year. So that's included in your plan. And again, just piggybacking off of what J.J. said. Like, we're working hard, and we would very much like your support. And I just appreciate everyone who has already voiced so much support already. And for the guide and for everything else going on. So we are starting this year a week later than usual. And people are still gearing up this early. I can't remember a week in the preseason that has been this much movement as far as injuries go, J.J. Yeah. I mean, yeah, and it's a pain in the butt because we don't know injury timelines. And so I know when these rankings are published, just going to be questioned after questions. So hopefully they make sense. And I did want to caveat with what I caveated with because it's just going to be impossible to get to every single one that comes my way. Yeah. Also want to just give a shout out to DraftKings. And they are genuinely-- genuinely? I don't even know. Generously? Generously. Generously is genuine and generously. But they are genuine about it. Yes, they are. But they're generously sponsoring our show so that we can put it out there for you guys. Also, we have the best ball streams on our YouTube channel. And I think we'll even be doing a stream after this. JJ, if you can't, I can. Just let me know. I can do it. I can do it. It's scheduled. It's already scheduled. So it'll auto-play after this. If you're listening on demand, you can go back and watch it as well. We've got live streams most weekdays around 1 p.m. Eastern time. So a lot that is happening. We appreciate everyone, again, for tuning in and just being interactive on this show. It's going to be a fun show, JJ. There's going to be some sad elements to it. But it's going to be a fun show. Are you ready? Let's do it. All right. Let's get into today's news. Today's fantasy news. Yeah, they want to be a Debbie Downer, but all this injury stuff. And it'd be different if there was injuries to guys that we didn't like. No. Kidding, halfway-kidding. But let's talk about first, but the pre-season week one reaction. I'm giving you the microphone, JJ. And you do with it, whatever you want to do, it's your company. Look, my reaction is that people love to overreact about the pre-season. That's my reaction. It's like we've never seen-- Look, I think there's a-- I said this from the start. I actually put this on Twitter yesterday. X, sorry. Where-- And we had talked about this on the show for weeks and weeks during draft season, where, in my opinion, analytically-- this wide receiver class-- because obviously the running back class was just top-heavy, and it wasn't very strong. So we don't really need to talk about the running back class. The wide receiver class is where things are interesting. And the analytical side of things for this wide receiver class was not very strong. Like, I thought that there was a pretty clear big four in the class, because I would include Casey Concepcion, because the model saw him pretty similarly as McIe Lemon from a prospecting standpoint. And then after that, the model didn't really like Omar Cooper that much, versus where he was drafted. Denzel Boston was fine. It wasn't like fantastic, but he was fine. Like, you could see why someone would really like him, even analytically. Desson Stribbling had a lot of red flags. And then every, basically, every single round two and round three wide receiver had some sort of red flag to their analytical profile. And this is-- when I say analytical profile, I'm talking about their age-adjusted production, the age of their-- they are entering the NFL. Maybe you could throw size in there a little bit. That's not that big of a constraint for me. But it's basically their age-adjusted production that I'm talking about, their breakout score, the main metric of wide receiver within the model. But you can also look at career yards per out run. You can look at their YACC profiles. There's a lot of stuff that you can look at. And I would say that we had an insane amount of day two picks, day one and day two wide receiver picks. And the one common theme that we had talked about on the show was that there's going to be someone that emerges just by sheer volume. And by sheer volume, I mean, the number of people and players that were drafted day one and day two. Because draft capital gives players opportunity. And it's also an embedded evaluation of the player. If the player gets drafted earlier, that means that there's some talent profile associated with them that either numbers may or may not see, or whatever the case may be. I'm not trying to solve like the pure talent question when I'm prospecting. I'm trying to solve who I think is going to be good in fantasy football, right? And so there are certain traits that might look better to someone watching these guys more closely than I am that the numbers are not going to pick up whatever the case may be. But I know for a fact that the Zat model is solving for fantasy football. And so what I think is going on right now is kind of exactly that where we're getting a lot of steam from these like what seem like really random wide receivers, you know, obviously Dishonned Striblings looked the part so far. I adjust my priors. I think he's looked great. And if I were drafting today, I certainly wouldn't have met like wide receiver eight to ten like I had him, you know, after the draft was over. I would I would put him, you know, basically after, you know, definitely before like Omar Cooper. There's no way I'm drafting Dishonned Stribbling after Omar Cooper at this point. And I know it's disappointing to people where they didn't draft in there. And they missed out on them, you know, my rankings were basically at market with Stribbling. I got them at times. I didn't get you know, it's just like that's that was a misevaluation so far from like a from the standpoint of him gaining value. That's an L for me, right? We have no idea how good he's going to be. But and that's the thing like I'm trying not to get too far ahead of myself and just assume that something's going to go in a certain direction. But that's also the point of all of this. And what I'm saying about overreacting to the preseason is that like we see certain things go down and we're like, well, that doesn't make that much sense. Chances are it's not going to actually happen. You know, like a lot of these guys getting steam, whether it's Caleb Douglas, Jacobi Lane, you know, Dishonned Stribbling, Cyrus Allen, you know, these wide receivers that like had some parts of their profiles that were interesting. I'd argue Caleb Douglas didn't really have that many parts. Like with Stribbling, there was the Yak profile that I really wish I would have leaned into more with the fit with Kyle Shanahan, right? And then, you know, with with a Cyrus Allen, there's actually kind of an interesting breakout score for a guy going day three or with Jacobi Lane. He's an early declare and he acted, you know, he competed with some tough competition in college. So you can like kind of under the, the Caleb Douglas thing is really tough for me to like. wrap my head around and like truly, truly get and we'll see what ends up happening with him in Miami, but regardless, like this is what we were going to see in my opinion with This class and also there's a really good point that that our buddy J-Bolt's making in chat We're like we also didn't know that Ricky Peersol was gonna get hurt, right that that opening was gonna be there for DeZon Stribling, but regardless like this is the way that's all fantasy football That's the way that this all goes and it's gonna play out that way sometimes, but I really do think that it's important for us to lean into this idea that we're going to see Some profiles that looked questionable just naturally emerged because we will see that now anyway Like like that happens every year. It's just that we have so many of those players that we're gonna probably just see that And it doesn't help that Jordan Pysons hurt. Well, I mean, I think we're gonna talk about that in a second Cardinal Tate is playing on a team that I'm sorry kitchen close your ears has very questionable, you know Offensive play and potentially quarterback play. We'll see. Okay. Lemons been banged up. Casey Concepcion's looking the part evidently Which I'm not shocked by, but obviously he's in a bad offensive situation Omar Cooper can't find the field and he's apparently like the wide receiver four on the jets right now And then Denzel Boston's doing well, but again, he's in the same position that Casey Concepcion is so like all of these Things are coming together to just go into what I said like this is going to be a hard rookie class as I sect And so I think when we get that information we should react. It's just my gosh people are overreacting like I Haven't I have I've not been a part of it like this to this degree and all the I've been I've been doing this We'll see what happens. I still think you throw darts at those guys But don't you know try to try to be level-headed about it You think now we'll talk a little bit later about the WCBC receiver hype because you think this is a real overreaction Just imagine this week After a week one of the regular season. Oh, I'm when Stribbling goes for for with all the question 135 and two. Yeah, right. It's it's it's gonna be wild. I think people should be drafting I mean, he's been in the late-round dark for a couple of weeks now in the draft guy Like I think you should be drafting design Stribbling given where he goes in season-long platforms I don't think you should be paying the costs that it would take to acquire right now and dynasty because I've seen him go for I mean like I mean I saw a trade go downward someone got a 2027 first for Stribbling and it's a good class next year I've evidently I haven't like totally researched it up, but You know like dynasties of different beasts redraft. Yeah, go for it. Like get that get that piece and see what happens Okay, we have Tyson's tindy hammy This was just a big blow and For someone who has been championing Jordan Tyson Obviously there were some concern last week, but he's gonna be out for two months at least and then we're not we're not sure really What's what's gonna happen after that? So your thoughts on Jordan Tyson right now? Like I could rant about this too in the way that people are reacting to this where You know the the reaction was like how could you possibly have been into Jordan Tyson when we knew that yeah We knew the injury concerns were there we're drafting him because We like the talent and it was very evident based on what was going on there Nick underhill is is one of not not only the best Saint speedwriter, but one of the best beat reporters in the country covering an NFL team and he talked about that later in the season He would not have been shocked. This is before the injury happened if Jordan Tyson was the best player on the Saints roster Like that's how that's how amazing he's been throughout camp and so Yeah, you take a risk when you play fantasy football No one with in the right mind was just ignoring the injury concerns It was the reason why if you go read the prospect guy Jordan Tyson was in the same tier as carnell tape You know because there were injury concerns Despite the fact that he looked a lot better analytically in my mind so Yeah, I mean like it's really a bummer. I think anyone who enjoys the game of football should not be like rooting for this kind of thing I just being a human you shouldn't be rooting for this kind of thing But what it does is that you know Chris Alave I was a little bit nervous about When it came to the volume that he might be able to see in this offense because I thought him and Tyson really paired well together I didn't think Alave was like a hard fate or anything like that But I was getting a little concerned about you know him maintaining a 30% No, I mean like now I'm high on Chris Alave versus the market. This is a really big deal for him You know, and then obviously we can just talk about Alvin Camero right now since we're on the Saints He's going to be out for a month with an MCL spring and that obviously boosts Travis HN, you know, I think that he's now kind of a tear up based on this injury because there's nothing in his way from a receiving perspective quite as much You know, it's not that I thought Camero had a ton of stand-alone value It's just that he could hurt Travis HN in some way, you know, just just being a body there I know that the thing is that like Kendra Miller or whomever is not nearly the kind of pass catcher that Camero is And so that helps Travis HN a lot be sort of like that bell cow in workhorse to to start the year And we'll see what ends up happening, but I'll bump him up because I think that winning September is very important in fantasy football So yeah, I mean these injuries suck with Tyson I would have sum Devon Veile gets gets the biggest bump and at least from like a usability perspective I'd throw a dart at Bryce Lance too if you want to in the in the final rounds where he was a he's an athletic freak He had a really late breakout. I had my analytical concerns about his profile But he definitely came through the last couple of years smaller school But but just a freak athletically so maybe that translates sometimes that does with those players Then obviously Joanne Johnson, I think is just a smash where where he generally goes I've been getting I mean I was getting a lot of Joanne in general But I think that he's he's you know Arguably the number two target probably the number two target now that the Jordan Tyson injury happens Okay We have this a mecca a boo boo right now happening not really sure what to make out of this toe injury And that's kind of what's so frustrating is like he's going pretty high Drafts and we don't you know, we know his talent, but are you willing to spin such a high price with this question marker surrounding his toe right now? Yeah, I I've updated my rankings for the most part. I'm waiting on some news to drop just so that I can you know be finalized with stuff through today to then send out the updated rankings But yeah, I mean I moved a Bucca down into the next tier. I had him in a tier with you know, Zay flowers Devante Smith like I was I was pretty high on a Bucca And what he could do here you're two without Mike Evans, but now I moved him back into that tier with like Lad Maconkey T Higgins You know and like it's a pretty big tier in my rankings. I even I like I've Garrett Wilson in there a Teteromic Millen Luther Burden at the very end of it. So yeah, I mean like I think he's now in that tier just because you know again I'm not trying to like overstate what these injuries could do, but you know turp toes can be annoying and also Oh, man, I just saw the news in the chat. I'm gonna Yeah, is my is my draft guide curve. I'm actually I'm actually looking at this up right now To see if it's real. Yeah, wrap up for it at Texans writer-sever Jaden Higgins suffered a torn ACL yesterday I'm like I might cry Guys, I can't even I can't even explain how insane this Summer has been and the last three or four weeks have been with like guys Yeah, it's crazy It's honestly like I if I'm a player on In the draft guy listed as a target or dart throw I'm scared right now and I would not want to be on that list at this point I think we just starting year one of the you know the madden curse just kind of Gave their curse to the late-round target curse. It's crazy. It's crazy I'm I think that I'm just gonna have to have a magical Magical 15 transaction season is what this is gonna come down to, you know there you go Okay, well that's literally the the what we're talking about a mecca Yeah, so a blue guy just moved on. I think Chris Godwin gets I mean I've been drafting a lot of got we've been talking about goblin a lot on the show this summer I've been drafting a lot of godwin. I think Jalen McMillan who's coming back from injury now As an interesting player to to to to look at later and then you know if you want like a on the on your radar kind of player Ted Hurst is kind of interesting too, but I I don't know if hers is gonna get that much run because Ted Johnson's there too Um, you know, I think they're gonna slow play hers because he went to a smaller program. He's dominant Physically, I can be he got a Nico Collins comp in the in the prospect guide this year So there's definitely some upside there But I think it's just more of like a second half of the year thing if it really does happen in a mirror and he does emerge So right now it's more so bump up Godwin a little bit I think he's just been a value for most season He's actually a target in the draft guy to now. I added him I think last week Um, and the Jalen McMillan has like a dart throw if you want to kind of hedge a little bit with this abooka injury Okay, you mentioned Nico Let's talk about this Texans water see room because tank Dale also They don't know when he's gonna be playing, you know He's on his own timeline. That's from his own head coach Now Higgins is out Noel was a guy who No, I don't be clear, no, no, yeah, no, well, I said that last year too, yeah, it's the Christmas in me, um, but he was a guy that was on the like NFI list, but now he's back, but like, what do you make out of this Texans water seer room right now? I mean, Nico Collins got a nice boost with this from a fantasy perspective. Um, there's going to be a lot of, uh, just, just forced volume going his way. But yeah, I mean, this is a bump for tank del. This is a bump for Jalen Noll. Unfortunately, they're going to use Xavier Hutchinson. Like that's going to be a thing, uh, they love those Iowa state widows. Um, but yeah, I mean, like Jalen Noll to me is probably the most intriguing because he's super, super cheap. I liked his profile. He kind of was like Randall Cobby coming out a little bit smaller, but similar, uh, you know, ability to play out of the slot, get vertical, uh, do a little bit at the line of scrimmage as well. Uh, and I thought he showed us something last year. It wasn't like he had nothing to his profile. Um, I'm still really just depressed about this Jaden Higgins news for a lot of reasons. Like you hate it for, uh, ascending second year player. Like that sucks, man. That's just for him. Like that sucks. And so, uh, the offense too, if you were a believer in Stroud kind of making a comeback this year, like, yeah, someone saying Noll's still out a few weeks with a hammy. Didn't he just return to practice yesterday out of nowhere? Yeah. Wasn't there a report? Yeah. So, okay. Keep an eye on that. We can't look it up obviously in like real time like this. But, um, yeah, I mean, like Xavier Hutchinson, they like him a lot, but this is just going to force Tank Dell up the depth chart a little bit more, um, and the Nico Collins will just end up getting fed. And maybe we just see a little bit more of the cheap stuff to Dalton Schultz, uh, which is what we saw last year. He had those like random, I mean, Dalton Schultz is just like these, it's, it's like any X cowboy tight end or any cowboy. It's like that Dalton Schultz and Jake Ferguson, it's just the most boring tight ends of all time. But, you know, they can get it done. It does make this wider seaver at the, we were kind of talking about it internally. The, um, you know, the top three spots, the top, I want to be as close to the number one spot as possible because of the two, three and a four or five turn. But you look at now these wider seaver two injuries and Nico up and then, uh, you also have, uh, Chris Alave up kind of towards like they're getting bumped with their, their volume perspective. So I don't know the reason why I like that, but I just checked. I've got 11%, uh, Higgins in best ball. Yeah. I'm going to, I'm going to check after I'm on live so that people don't, uh, see me cry actually, visually, you know, stream he's, I mean, he's, he's good right there beside Ricky pierce all of my exposure. I mean, it is crazy. It is crazy. The wide receiver injuries have happened. So, yeah, I mean, I think part of it, so here's one thing. I've heard a lot of like people say that like running back, running bags do technically get hurt more than wide receivers across a large sample, um, but it really hasn't been as dramatic as you think it's not, it's not something that you should actually take into consideration, in my opinion, when you're drafting, like you, you, the, the, the idea of it of like the fragility of the, of the running back position and, you know, what Sean Seagull wrote about in like zero RB, the zero RB work is that when a running back goes down, we know who the backup is generally that is going to get some work. Whereas we're talking about it right now with the Texans like, yeah, Nico Collins gets bumped up a little bit. Okay. Well, Nico Collins also was already, you know, a two, three turn type player. Okay, are we going to really rely on Tankdale or are we going to really rely on on Jalen Nola? Are we going to really rely on Xavier Hutchinson? Like what's that going to look like? Well, if it happens at running back, you know, and a guy goes down, you know, that you can generally get something out of whoever that, you know, if JK Dobbins goes down, that Jonah Coleman's going to get a ton of work and, uh, you know, and RJ Harvey is going to get more work. Whereas it's just, you know, it's just the way that, that it works at wide receivers. So it's not so much that the injuries happen more frequently at running, and especially the last couple of years, running backs, I'm gotten hurt as much. And I think we're seeing it more encamp right now. Um, I think it's kind of probably somewhat of an outlier what's going on right now. But, um, you know, wide receivers are doing what they typically do in camp in terms of just their movement, right? And the routes that they're running and they're, you know, uh, like, like moving of their, their legs out of, you know, in and out of routes and stuff like that, um, in their breaks. So like, that movement hasn't changed from what they're doing now to what they'll be doing when the games are playing, but at running back, it does change because they're getting smashed by defenders, which is just not what you're seeing right now and encamp and stuff. So I would expect more running back injuries to happen, unfortunately in season, um, but, yeah, it's, to me, I mean, just wild. What's going on at wide receiver right now? All right. Uh, let's move on to the next one. I tried to have wide receivers at the, at the top, you know, we made through five news items right now or 27 minutes into the show, but, uh, Mike Evans, who last week was, or the week before was the cover boy for the show. Now he's dealing with an ankle injury, but really what they're looking at potentially is him re aggravating that quad injury. I saw a friend of the show, Jeff Mueller, Mueller talking about it, something to keep an eye on. And when it's like, when Jeff says, keep an eye on this, it's like red flags to me now, because it seems like past few guys, he said, keep an eye on it's just like, okay, they end up getting hurt for a while. So, yeah, I mean, it's, it's Mike Evans, like we know this is, there's a risk. I think you're going to deal with this like throughout the season. If you don't want to deal with it, don't draft them. If you want the upside because he's your wide receiver three, um, I, I think that's really smooth. In my opinion, smart because I do think the upside is pretty crazy for Mike Evans. Um, like if you removed injury issues with Evans, he would be like, to me, like, a three, four turn type player. If we didn't have any concern, like I think it's already kind of embedded in his ADP, especially on some places. Like I think ESPN has a very, very low, like in the 80s or something like that. He's not one that we're talking about on today's show, but probably could have. So yeah, I mean, like this is just the risk with Mike Evans. I lean into the risk, um, but clearly leaning into this risk has ruined me over the last month. We still have like three weeks left to the season start, JJ. So like we can, we can call back some of that, uh, that CLV that is, is not feeding our families right now. All right. High ankle sprain. Don't love that Jeremiah love inexplicable usage last week and a preseason week one game. Many are saying I am saying, uh, high ankle sprain sucks for him. Yeah. I mean, I, I've seen a lot of the responses to this being like, you know, he's got time to heal and he's, you know, generational. So why would we move his ranking, you know, based on this? I actually think it's, it's important because there's a psychological, psychological component to this of the way that the coaches might be viewing this, right? Where they're like, oh, we don't want like first game. This happened. We have other running backs that are capable. Why would we just give Jeremiah love this bell cow workload when we have Tyler Algier sitting here? So I actually think it's a pretty big deal. I bumped him down into that same tier I was talking about earlier with the Buka. I have Javonte and Kyron over in a tier above now, uh, Jeremiah love. And so I, I, I would rather go that direction and just think it's safer and I think production wise, you're probably looking at similar outlooks for those players, just given their offensive environments. You know, it's just the way that it is. So it's unfortunate, um, you know, I want to be in because I really like Jeremiah love as a talent. I think he looked amazing and the, uh, you know, the looks that we got of him. But I do worry that they're going to slow play this a little bit and there might be more of a buying opportunity later on, especially they were really tough scheduled this year. And I know that he's sort of like their default third down back in a way, and then I use him in that, in that manner, uh, in the hurry up mode and all of that kind of stuff. I'll show some data about that in a second. But I don't want to overstate what that can be for his fantasy production. I think he's fine. He's still an RB two for me. I just don't want to draft him an RB one range. Okay. Um, I mean, running backs, do get hurt, breeze out two to three weeks with a growing strain. Most are saying he just doesn't need to play before week one. He'll be fine. Kind of in that same area that Luther Burden is in. Yeah. I, uh, I, I, I'm drafting him mostly the same way that I was drafting him before. Um, I, it sounds like he should be good once the season starts. I thought that I think that, you know, I talked about this on the mail bag last week. I think he's been a pretty decent value. I haven't been the same tier, uh, uh, as the two guys that I just talked about, Javonte and Kyron, but I have him ahead of those guys, though, because I think the three down potential is just better for breeze all and I think he's a better talent than those other two running backs. And there's less than I'm worried about in those in his back, but of course, situation is not as good. But I don't think the Jets offensive line is that bad. So I'm still still drafting breeze in the third. I think it's a decent pick. And even if Brandon Godula is making fun of me, I think his exact quote was, of course, kitchen is drafting breeze. Hall. Yeah. Like, well, I mean, on draft Kings breeze hall falls to the mid fourth. That's where it's. Yeah. That's where you should definitely be drafting him. Yeah. Yes. All right. Um, we talked about Alvin Cameric Kalmanungai out with, uh, for a few weeks with a hyper extended knee. You know, this is another situation where we, we liked Kalmanungai with where he was going in. And now this kind of, you know, it might ease up the waters a little bit. Yeah. I think that Manungai, uh, this injury allows Deandre Swift to be bumped up a little bit. Um, I think he's sort of like right after David Montgomery now. I just feel better about Montgomery's workload in general. I think Swift is a decent value, though. if you'd like to. at where he's being drafted across sites, he goes a little bit later than where I have him ranked. So this injury's helping that for him to get off to a hotter start. (air whooshes) - The Quinn Allen is liquiding, actually, he's just hurt, but he has a soft tissue injury. This helps all roads, basal tootin. It also helps probably Chris Rodriguez. - Yeah, I mean, like I think that people are gonna overstate what this means, the Lequin Allen injury, where he's awesome in Pastbro. He's a great third down back. You'll see some data in a second on this in particular, and why I don't think it's that big of a deal. Not only that, they have a mirror of doula. They might end up using a doula there, but I think if anything, they would use basal tootin. And he might get an extra point and a half in a game because of that role. But the Quinn Allen should be back eventually, and so I don't wanna like make it completely changed the way that I'm viewing tootin, who I have tootin right now at RB22. You know, technically, I have David Montgomery, DeAndre Swift, Travis HN, ahead of him. I just think they're safer bets at this point with how things have kind of gone down. But I still like tootin much more than consensus where he goes like RB26. So I'm still in, and this certainly doesn't hurt his cause. - Okay, we have a Chargers replay of the past few years. If you know where they're offensive line, just gets decimated by injuries. They're center. - Beyond it. - Beyond it. - Oh yeah, yeah, Beyond-ish. I actually looked it up. So it's like the, you know, it's the A-H in the middle. - Yeah. - So Beyond-ish is out, probably for the whole season. - Yeah, I mean, it's not as bad as, it's not as bad as like a slater-all injury, but it's certainly not good. Hopefully this is it for them. I'm not changing things too, too dramatically. I do think you can probably put Hampton in the bottom of that tier, just because there's some volatility there, but there's so much upside still with him in my opinion. I think I'm at the point though and half PPR where I'm probably going HN and Henry over Hampton, you know, if this is like a tiebreaker. I actually, my recent rankings update, I kind of separated that tier, where, because I just, I know I officially like the Seikwon Chase Brown Kenneth Walker trio. You can put Gentie in there, too, if you want, but I've just been high on Gentie throughout the off season. I like them more than that next trio that I just talked about. Derek Henry, the Von H and Amari in Hampton. So I just want to be clear in my rankings that I do. But yeah, I mean, like, they're all really good round two picks, in my opinion, like I still think that they're fine. I mean, the thing with H and the reason why he's been an avoid in the guys, 'cause he goes RB five on some platforms. I just think the late first round is too early for him. - Okay, we have landing spots for Keenan and Najee. Did you update Najee right here, or did it was that me? - I did it. I updated those guys while you were talking in the intro. I updated Keenan Allen and Najee Harris. - Well, we did, we usually do it on the show, like we do it. - Oh, it's like an unveiling. - Yeah, it's like an unveiling at the Raptor. Sorry, I just did it to make it, you know. - It's okay. - All right, so we're just leaving out Tyreek, who's probably, you know, just doesn't have any power in his leg. But Najee Harris, assigning, people had talked about possibly the giants being a landing spot and the Tyro Tracy, where he missed a block, Jackson Dark got blown up. I'm not sure if it's being blown out of proportion. - It is, it's one rep, it definitely is. But I don't think that, okay, I should say, I don't think it's being blown out of proportion. It is from the standpoint, I would be pretty surprised if they cut him. Because people are saying that. I would be surprised if they go that route. Maybe I'm wrong. You know, that's something that no one really knows or has any insight, too. But I do think that the Najee Harris thing in the signing is, you know, a sign that they just wanted a bulkier depth piece behind Cam Skataboo. And I'm not gonna be surprised if they use Harris more than you think, you know, you as a listener or a viewer would have you. Then what you think, just because he's a player that coaches like, that coaches seem to want to deploy despite superior talent being behind him on the death chart, as we saw on Pittsburgh for four years. So I'm not gonna be surprised if he gets some love and get some work eventually. But again, he's kind of a, he's not aged per se, but he's coming off in Achilles. He's coming off a really tough injury to come back from. So I don't want to move things too, too much with Skataboo. And I did move Tracy down a decent bit, and Skataboo may be down a tier into like the Montgomery range now, but nothing like insane. - Yeah. We're not even talking about vision issues for Najee, which is all we were talking about last year. - That was bizarre. - Brennan-Gudula said, it's okay. Kitchen says dead inside that JG already changed to cell colors, but yeah. So I went in the chat posted earlier that if something happens to Skataboo, that Najee is gonna give us the most consistent 10 points. - Oh, you're gonna get the best 10 points per game in the capital. - Yeah, yeah. - All right, Kenan Allen, this was one that we were expecting. This was your highest best ball draft pick. - It's embarrassing. I have Kenan Allen on like 24% exposure or something across best ball drafts right now. So yeah, I needed this to happen. I needed him to sign somewhere. I said it on the show a couple of weeks ago. He's been a really good target getter the last couple of years in environments where, I mean, he led the chargers and target chair last year in environments with pretty good weapons, like McConkey Quentin Johnston, you know, Ronde Gaston, and then in Chicago, he was competing with strong weapons as well. And so yeah, I mean, like I see Kenan Allen as a thorn for a Josh Downs, let's say, but I still think Downs is gonna play in 12 personnel. It's not gonna be until 11 where they shift downs and inside more, you know, obviously they can rotate things around, but I would still expect Josh Downs route share to increase year over year because they still don't have like a true guy who can, that's fast enough to get down the field consistently 'cause that's not Kenan Allen's game. So I think it's a little bit of a hit to a Downs, to a Tyler Warren, but nothing significant because there was just kind of an opening in that offense in general, I think those guys can create their own and still get decent target chairs. - Okay, let's talk about craft reps. This is his exact quote taken from the locker room. They're gonna take you to account my rep range, probably until halfway through the season. And they're going to just pat me on the you know what? And send me out there and send me to the wolves. - Well, the nice part is Tucker Craft has been probably the most efficient tight end and football over the last couple of years. And so even minimal work can do a lot for your fantasy squads. And then you add in the fact that they lost Romeo dobs, you know, they have a completely different offensive environment, you know, they lost Octavian Wix. They have a totally different offensive environment this year where they might need to feature Tucker Craft a little bit more. I'm still drafting him, I've been drafting him. I think he's been undervalued for a lot of the summer. And you know, he's one of those like few game changing tight ends that's out there. I think you can take him as early as tight end five. I think I have a ranked at tight end five. And I have throughout the the summer, it's just that right after him, I would draft some other tight ends. You know, it's not like it's a, he's like clearly on his own there. - Okay, number 35, number one in your hearts. Darren Waller, you see that the, that's his new jersey number. It is number 35. - Yeah, it's the ugliest thing I've seen since, since Matthew Golden last year wearing 22. So, he's landed there in Charlotte, Carolina Panthers, so thoughts on Waller, who says he still has more gas to the team. - Yeah, look, it's an open tight end room. They certainly, you know, they lost Chris Brasel already, could see him coming through with some random usable weeks from a best ball perspective. But he's not something that we're gonna have to worry about until, you know, we kind of see it. And I just don't think that Bryce Young can support that many players too. Like we, like Waller's gonna be at best the number three option in that offense. And it's just hard to envision a scenario where he's like a consistently good weapon. You know, like when we saw him last year, it was in an offense that really didn't have anything outside of Jalen Waddle, you know? And so I just, I have a hard time envisioning Waller being like a true, you know, guy that you can do much more than just stream, you know, every once in a while. - All right, let's talk about this Jags, water seeber rotation, you have Brian Thomas Jr. and basically being the third guy on the field and you have Travis Hunter. Basically when Brian Thomas Jr. goes out, that's when Travis Hunter goes out. - Travis Hunter's playing the X in that offense. And it's what I thought Rich Rebar's analysis was really good on Brian Thomas on the avoids episode this week. So I would just go back and listen to that. I'm not really high or low on Brian Thomas just because there's a tear drop at wide receiver where he generally gets drafted, you know, I'm around like the wide or see, he's in sort of like this tear with like, you know, DK Metcalf, like I think you can, you could argue Marvin Harrison Jr. type players. I think I have Marvin ahead of him. But yeah, I mean, like I'm not like super amp to have him in a managed leagues. I think it's gonna be a headache, but I think that he's a good best ball pick as my bottom line with Brian Thomas. This is gonna be a good offense. - Okay, we've got more rookie water super hype. We talked about it last week. but Jacobi Lane still continues to ascend up the draft boards. We have Casey, Conception, you mentioned it earlier. He talked this week about being the underneath guy, which would benefit him. You've got Dijon Stribbling, who some people like I saw Norris the other day saying he's not even where his ADP is risen. It's not high enough. - Yeah, I mean, to be fair, I bumped Stribbling up even more in my rankings, just based on what I'm seeing, the injuries going on in San Francisco. But I know Norris, front of the show is like even way more bullish than I, like he's gonna have the highest ranking of Stribbling probably in the industry. He's like in the thirties for him. - It's his guy, and then Cyrus Allen is the other guy that's been just receiving a ton of hype of guys, late round guys. Any particular thoughts that you didn't share last week? - Yeah, I mean, even earlier today, when I was going through the little rant about the preseason, like I, I think they're all fine darts as long as the cost is there. You guys can look at the rankings and kind of see if you think the cost benefits there. Usually these fantasy platforms don't catch up fast enough. So if you're drafting like in the next couple of days, you can probably still get all of those guys into a huge discount. - And then last, I have Jonah Colman. He was taken out a little bit early of the game and Sean Payton said we've seen enough, basically. - Yeah, I mean, I'm not-- - This is a good sign for Jonah Colman. - It's a good sign for my best ball bags is what it is. - Yeah, I mean, I think Jonah Colman's really good. I think that he's a threat to both RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins. I bumped down both Dobbins and Harvey in my rankings this week. I've kind of toyed with the idea that Harvey's an interesting target in the middle rounds because he does check a lot of the boxes that we look for. I still think he's fine, but he's certainly not somebody that I want to be like crazy overweight on. So I'm gonna have to do some guide updates and stuff and look into that a little bit more. But I mean, Colman's been a dart throw in the guide since it published in July. Like he's kind of a late round fantasy football guy, if you will, the prospect model liked him, really good production profile. I just think he's a good player. So hopefully that continues and he gets some work right away. - I'm just glad that we knew this was gonna be a long show, 45 minutes in, we got through all the notes and that this is gonna be an episode speaking of the Broncos that doesn't feature Courtland Sutton or. - That's what you think. - Or does it? - Today's data. - All right, let's get into the value of a third down bag, JJ. - Yeah, so I'll do this pretty quickly 'cause obviously, we're already 40 plus minutes in, but I looked and I queried and we have new data this year that you guys are gonna get some really cool insights from myself and Gidulla throughout the season because of our data source and what we're able to do now. So I queried and I looked at, 'cause obviously we have this Lequin Allen injury, right? And I actually added Lequin Allen to this list if you scroll all the way to the bottom, you can see it. But I tried to quantify what being a third down back means, and there's no simple way to really do this. Like there's no one way to say, oh, you're the third down back, you're all the snaps where the third down back is playing. But how I quantified it was, I looked at players who played, when they played third down and five plus yards to go, 'cause obviously if it's third and shorter, they might not be using their third down back. And then I looked at no huddle fantasy points within the final two minutes of games, excluding third downs. So again, no huddle being, it's towards the end of the half, they have their third down back in. It doesn't mean they always have their third down back in. It's just, again, it's impossible to really quantify this super, super precisely. But I do think this gives you an interesting idea of how many points are scored by these third down back. So what I did was I simply calculated the number of third down fantasy points these guys scored, the number of no huddle snaps they had within the, or fantasy points they scored within the final two minutes of either half, which it's a very specific time frame. So like not a lot of players do a lot in that situation, aside from Devon H and he had almost 16 points last year in that time frame. And then I added those together to say, this is the total number of points that the third down back scored. And then how many is that per game? So essentially, you only have what? Seven guys, six guys, seven guys who scored two or more PPR points per game on third down or in this third down back role last year. And their names that wouldn't surprise you. Christian McHaffrey, Devon H and Ramondra Stevenson, because of the past pro stuff, I've been talking about that this week, Kenneth Gainwell for the Steelers, Tyrone Tracy and Camp Scataboo are both on there, 'cause obviously the giants weren't that great. So there's certain scripts that help them and then Taj A Spears, your guy. Out of Tennessee, playing that third down role, right? And then you get other guys like Ty Johnson, Justice Hill, they're all these player RJ Harvey, Isaiah Davis. All these players are like the satellite third down backs, right? So I put McHwin Allen at the very bottom. I stopped the per game numbers at one. So all these guys had one or more points per game in this third down back role and like on these third down back snaps, the Quinn Allen average point eight points per game last year, PPR in this role, if you will, like in this environment, obviously he got some work on first down, with not within the final two minutes in a no-huddle situation, but overall it's point eight points per game is what we're really arguing about for a player like Bay-Shall Tutan and we don't even know if Tutan's gonna get that work. So I don't wanna overstate what all that means. That was really the reason why I dug into this. I just wanted to see what this really means from a quantitative standpoint for a player like Tutan, and it's not that big of a deal. (whooshing) Okay, let's get into the main event and some ADP differences on different fantasy platforms. The late round main event. All right, let's start with Chase Brown, JJ, and we should also mention that these ADPs fluctuate and they change and it has been a huge storm in the side. So before we get into Chase Brown, you wanna preface this? - Yeah, I mean, I wanna say this too, that I think this is the final year for how we're doing the draft guide and the targets and avoid stuff. Because ADP has never been more different if you will across platforms in the way that people get the best ball. And it's not just ADP being different, it's the perspective that people come with. When it comes to ADP, I'll get to that in a little bit. So this is just looking at overall ADP as well as positional ADP from CBS, ESPN sleeper, and Yahoo, that I threw out there, Yahoo. Okay, I'll say it properly. And so this is looking at where these guys are currently going on those platforms. And I kinda highlighted in red where there's some interesting ADP. And spoiler alert, there's a lot of interesting stuff going on at ESPN in particular, but we'll talk through it. So the first one's Chase Brown, where CBS is actually a one to turn player. You know Yahoo, he's at 203, 205 on sleeper, and he's a top 10 running back on all those platforms. He's an RB8 for me at the 112. I like him at the turn. So I'm right in line with CBS. ESPN has met the 211 as the RB12, which I think is just unbelievably undervalued. He had 20 points per game with Joe Burrow last year, a 14% target share with Burrow. There's a really stable environment. So if you're on ESPN, you can draft Chase Brown. Honestly, if you're on any platform, you can, based on my rankings, you can draft Chase Brown, but definitely an ESPN, he's a huge target there. Okay, next to the list, Tramik Bride. Yeah, this one's really interesting because on ESPN, he goes as the 205, like he's the tight end too everywhere, right? But he goes as the 205 on ESPN, 209 on sleeper, 212 on Yahoo, and then he's the 303 on CBS. I'm more in line with CBS. I've actually lower than all these platforms in terms of overall rank with Tramik Bride, because I'm worried about how he had 120 more routes than any other tight end last year. If you discount those routes and he just regresses to still being tied with the most routes run at tight end, he would have scored like three and a half, three to three and a half fewer PPR points per game last year than he actually scored. And then my question on here is, what happens if Carson Beck starts playing down the stretch? That's also scary, they're really tough schedule. I just think that Tramik Bride is overpriced in terms of the overall rank where he goes. The ESPN one, if you're taking him at 205, that means you're like, there's no world where I would take Tramik Bride over Chase Brown. And he's going seven spots later than Tramik Bride on ESPN. There's just no way that I would make that move. - Especially with roster constructions, all the injury news that is taking place, for sure, a lot of mouse defeat there in Arizona. Speaking of Arizona, Jeremiah Love. - Yeah, so all I put here as a note was me saying that I would imagine that the prices drop with Jeremiah Love with his high ankle. So I have him as like a late third round into the fourth round pick now at RB 16. Every platform is actually kind of in line with me as a third rounder as like RB 13, RB 15. And again, this is pre-injury ADP poll. Like at least the market hasn't totally caught up based on that because it's only, you know, it's only a handful of days old. But ESPN, I know Mike Clay is very into Jeremiah Love. And I know that that's influencing the ADP over there. I'm just in disagreement with how he's viewing him. He had an RB 9 as a 203 in fantasy drafts. Just seems way too high for a player that's likely gonna be part of a committee in some way and a bad offense or more than likely not a good offense. I know that there's hype and there's, you know, There's a lot of intrigue with what this Arizona offense might look like this year. I'm still more bearish than bullish on them, just based on the very basic fact that Jacobi Berset is leading this offense and they have the toughest schedule in football and their implied team totals for the season or the lowest in the league. I mean, they're not favored in a single game. It's really bad. And so I'm a little bit fearful of what this Cardinals offense might do. It could be wrong because there's definitely talent there, but I'm definitely not going to invest in one of these players in the early second round. Yeah, and they go in a tank mode as well and get Carson back out there. You just, you don't know what's what's about to happen. All right, JJ, the, um, no, the youths, youths. They talk about frame magging. I don't know if you, you know, people know what that is, but it's like when you put someone out there and they're against someone who's bigger than they are. And I feel like this next guy is getting frame maugged with NFL highlights in camp and that, oh, never mind. That's the other guy. Sorry. Sorry. I skipped one. I skipped one. I was like, I was like, where are you going with Kyron Williams? This is like a boring, yeah, Koran would frame Mike. I remember that segway, but we'll talk about Kyron. We'll talk about Kyron here first. ESPN has Kyron as an early fourth round pick as RB 17. He was 17th in rush chair from weeks seven to 17 last year, which is when Blake Koram started getting more work. He's 15th and expected fantasy points during that time. So I, I have him as the RB 15 right now. Like I, I'm not high. I'm not low. I'm just kind of right in line with ADP and Kyron, um, you know, technically from an overall perspective, some of these platforms like him more than me. But I, I just like some of the wide receivers that go in that area. But it's fine if you want to, you know, jump him into the mid to even early third round. I'm not going to hate that. I think it's just pretty late in the, in the fourth round to be drafting Kyron Williams as we're seeing on ESPN. Okay. Uh, speaking of frame-monging, like we were talking about, rice. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Any, any clips for Rishi rice is like him and then comparing him to to Cyrus Allen. Like, I mean, it's it, nothing good is coming out of camp right now. I don't know if people are just over. He's overstating it. Yeah. I mean, look, I'm a little bit concerned from an injury perspective in that recovery. He hasn't really looked at the part in the clips that I've seen. But I, and I also worry a little bit about how this offense might change with Kenneth Walker there. And if they do want to change things up, you know, my homes coming off the ACL, um, with that being said, I don't want to get too carried away. Like he's been very, very good in fantasy when he's been active. I have my wide receiver 15. I could, I could rank him up just based on tears. I think up to like wide receiver 13 or so. Uh, he's at least in that tier with a Devante Smith, Zay flowers. Those are the two guys that I have above Rishi rice that a lot of platforms don't. Um, and so it's fine if you want to go Rishi rice technically because of my tears. It's just kind of, I mean, CBS has my wide receiver nine ESPN has my wide receiver eight. So those platforms were a lot higher on rice. If you want to get rice exposure, I would go to sleeper or, uh, Yahoo to get him at wide receiver 14. Okay. Let's talk about a guy who, you know, he just checks boxes. But no one really talks about him as an explosive guy because he gets frame moded by Jamar Chase. He does 17.1 PPR points per game. They'll once Joe burrow return 2.29 yards per out run. Problem is he landed a 19% target here. So I do think that, you know, I think he's fine. Like he's a, he's a fine pick. I am wide receiver 17, which is maybe like a slightly low compared to something. But I think it's mostly in the middle of all of these platforms where I, where I have T ESPN, though, has my wide receiver 21 is an early fifth round pick. Like that is that stealing because there's contingent upside with this too. You know, like me, the ranking is not just a projection for T Higgins is the fact that if Jamar Chase were to go down for any reason, you know, miss a game or miss whatever T Higgins is a wide receiver one in fantasy. So you can't discount that. And you shouldn't just be drafting off projections with a player like T. Okay. Next we have one of my favorites for this year, Garrett Wilson. Yeah, you know, he was in the draft guide as a player to avoid for a while because of the ESPN ranking. But I'm looking, and I was looking at this. I'm like, wait a second. I'm like right in line with every platform with Garrett Wilson at wide receiver 21. That's where he is on Yahoo. That's where he is on sleeper for the most part in CBS. But ESPN has about wide receiver 13 as the 307. I could see it happening. Of course, like Garrett Wilson is a good player. And maybe the offense surprises, but he's never had a season with a Yarsborough run above two. And, you know, I think that with the volume side of things, which has always been there for him, things are moving in his favor where you have Omar Cooper who hasn't made that, you know, jump into being a starter yet evidently. And Ken and Cedeek's been banged up. So I think the volume should be there. He's moved up my rankings a little bit since the guide published. And now I'm at market with him. So he's going to be someone that I got a disregard basically. And I mean, he was a confidence level of one all summer in terms of being in a void. He's just like, he's been like kind of a softer fade, but he's not a fade for me at all anymore. He's got the talent. That's for sure. It's just the environment that we need a little bit better for Jackson Dart cover boy for the Giants. He was fine after that hit. He was a little bit upset. He got taken to the medical tents, but wide range of outcomes are here. Yeah. I mean, look, so CBS has as six points per touch on pass, which is what I think is driving this and why he's at QB 13 there. But he's a QB seven on ESPN is a sixth round pick way too early. In my opinion, I have my QB 10 as a mid eighth round pick. Now you'll see with the way that these overall picks are showing that clearly I devalue the quarterback position compared to ADP and it's true. And it's because quarterbacks really deep. So I don't want to force the issue in around six or seven where opportunity cost is higher. So I have Jackson darted 806, but he's a QB 10. I hit great market score comps, you know, tough to just completely remove that rushing floor because it's part of his game. So I, you know, I think he's a fine pick. I just wouldn't be drafting at the overall ADP at some of these platforms. Certainly wouldn't be drafting them where ESPN has. There is some injury concern that I have with Dart this year. And here's the other thing too. Like this is not a dynasty take. In redraft, I'm very much just shoot for the moon with quarterback. And if it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out. It's not that big of a deal. But in dynasty, I do think there's a little bit more volatility to Dart's profile. All right. Next on list, we have Dallas Goddard from Niels. So CBS has a meta nine and then Sleeper has meta 15. So there's a pretty big gap. 15 seems a little bit low. So if you want some Goddard exposure, I would go over to Sleeper. He was six and targets per out run last year when AJ Brown was not on the field. So keep that in mind. He was first in fantasy points per out run when AJ Brown was not on the field at point a one, which is way better than any other tight end. So there is some intrigue here that maybe, you know, obviously that's not that's not a one-to-one thing. They fill the gaps and things change and whatnot. But like there's definitely upside with Goddard with with AJ Brown no longer in the picture. Yeah. Stowers not in the picture right now. At least to start the season. People thought at first he was going to cut into it just with a second round draft capital. Zay flower is next on the list. I met wide receiver 14 very early in the third, you know, like early to mid-third. Whereas other platforms have running max clearly ahead of him. So again, that's just that giant hero talking about earlier where like if you want to go Kyron over Zay fine, you know, if you're if you're your league says that you should based on your settings. But on sleeper, he's the wide receiver 19 going at 405. I think that's a huge, huge value for Zay flowers absurd per route run efficiency last year. The Ravens had fewer than 25 pass attempts for games. They're going to regress. So I like Zay flowers a lot if you're drafting him on sleeper at that wide receiver 19 price tag. Luther burden a late round staple and I do wonder how the injury is going to affect this as well. Look at sleeper at wide receiver 22 with burden which is where I'm at with burden right now. But yeah, you look at like a CBS and ESPN. He's a sixth round pick, you know, like say what you want about all this Luther burden steam and such. When you look at what season long platforms are doing, he's a sixth round pick on half of the major season long platform. So yeah, I'm going to call him out as a target and when that's the case, he was second in yards per out run week 11 to 17, which is a time frame where he started playing more than 50% of their running around more than 50% of their dropbacks. But even if you include the playoffs, which is obviously tougher competition, he was still top 10 in targets and yards per out run among wide receivers. So I'm obviously a Luther burden guy. I'd still be drafting him. I think he's more of a fourth round pick when he goes in the fifth on even the platforms that are more bullish on him. And then obviously if you're on ESPN, I would, if you can get Luther burden in the sixth round, that's awesome. Okay. Uh, Dalton can cade next. So I have concave a Titan 10. I like him a lot. But sleeper and Yahoo, both have met around that point too. It's CBS and ESPN where they're at Titan 15 and Titan 16. He was the leader in yards per out run last year. He was one of seven Titans to hit that high of a mark, 2.79 and George Kittle did it three times. That's really very few Titans have gotten to this point. He ranked outside though the top 30 in route share. And so him coming off that PCL, you know, he's noted and they've noted that, um, you know, that that hurt him last year. If he even like gets like a 10 to 15% bump in route share, he could easily be a tight end one this year. He's one of my favorite targets of tight end. - Okay, and if you know, you know, it's save the best for last. - Yeah, did on purpose. - Yeah, of course you did. It's Mr. Cortland Sutton. - This is what I'm talking about whenever I say that Cortland Sutton is overvalued is that on CBS, wide receiver 32 early seventh round ESPN, wide receiver 29, late sixth round sleeper wide receiver 36. We still wide receiver three in the seventh round. Yahu actually likes him just as little as I do for the most part, right? He's a ninth round pick over there, wide receiver 38. I have him in the eighth round as the wide receiver 41. You know, I've said it on the show this week, sub 20% targets per out run rate last year. That was with weaker competition, a 21% target share. He hasn't been a lead since year two in the NFL. I just, I like Pat Bryant at his ADP a lot more than I like Cortland Sutton at his. And then Jalen Waddle, I think could be a studly, studly player in this offense this year. So I've been fading Cortland Sutton into manage league. It's a little bit different in Bestball, but you can see the prices here as to why. Like I just, I can't get behind spending a top 30 wide receiver pick on Cortland Sutton. Yeah, I've been fading in Bestball as well. So, yeah, I mean, I don't have a, I don't have a heavy bag of Cortland Sutton in Bestball. Yeah, if the ship goes down, you know, we're going down, I'm going down with it, JJ. All right, good stuff. Let's wrap this up. Okay, all those rankings that JJ just talked about, they are available for members on the website, latround.com. You can become, there's different membership tiers, explore insider, and then of course, the new all access, they get you access to the draft guide and speak into the draft guide. We have rankings in there as well. And we have updates coming, updates usually on Friday mornings. And there will be plenty of them, which is why we were in kind of no huddle mode today, 'cause of all the items that we have. After this show, we're going to have a stream. JJ, are you still okay to do it? Because like your voice is kind of going out? I mean, I can hop in there. No, it's fine, it's fine. I, that's just, you know, just the way this is the grind. I know, and you're on your guests on a lot of different shows. I got another, and I'm recording perspectives later today for Friday, so I'll be talking a lot. Honey. Oh, honey, like literally honey, you need probably need that for some money. But I'll do, yes, I'm going to do the live stream draft right now after I probably use the restroom before doing it. (laughing) And then again, shout out to our sponsors, DraftKings, promo code, late round. And again, they had the draft one, get one promotion. They've got other promotions as far as getting tickets to the DFS side week one. They've already got salaries out for week one, so you can do that as well. So if you haven't though drafted a best ball team yet, and we just get in there and do it, do a slow draft. And, you know, just use that as your mock draft tools. All right, JJ, anything else? Nope, ready to do this draft. So stick around, guys, 'cause I will be live soon. All right, I appreciate you all. And yeah, like, subscribe, leave a comment. We love you. We'll see you next week in the late round fancy football show, sponsored by DraftKings. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The show highlights extensive injury concerns across the NFL, particularly affecting wide receivers and running backs, leading to significant shifts in player rankings and draft strategies.
  2. Wide receiver class is seen as volatile, with players like DeZon Stribbling emerging unexpectedly due to injuries and late-round drafting, challenging traditional talent models.
  3. Injuries to key players—such as Jaden Higgins (ACL), Jordan Tyson (foot), and Mike Evans (ankle)—create uncertainty and force reevaluation of draft value and positional depth.
  4. The analysis emphasizes that fantasy football heavily relies on injury risk and positional volatility, with players in early rounds often facing more uncertainty than projected.
  5. Data shows third-down backs generate minimal fantasy points, with only a few players consistently producing in that role, underscoring the importance of offensive environment and usage.
  6. ADP differences across platforms (CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, Sleeper) are large and inconsistent, especially for running backs and wide receivers, with ESPN often overvaluing certain players.
  7. The hosts recommend drafting value over hype, especially in late rounds, citing emerging players and injury-driven opportunities as better value than popular early picks.
  8. The team stresses that injury news is a major factor in fantasy success, urging fans to remain flexible and avoid overreacting to preseason trends or one-off reports.

Summary:

The Late Round Fantasy Football Show discusses a wave of injuries impacting key players across the NFL, especially wide receivers and running backs, which is reshaping draft strategies and player rankings. The hosts emphasize that while injury risks are high, they also create valuable opportunities—particularly in late rounds—where undervalued players like DeZon Stribbling or Rishi Rice emerge as strong picks. The analysis highlights that fantasy success hinges on understanding positional volatility, as injuries at the wide receiver position disrupt planned depth charts and force adjustments in draft value.

Data shows that third-down backs generate minimal fantasy points, with only a few players consistently producing, suggesting that their role is not a reliable fantasy asset. ADP discrepancies across platforms—especially ESPN’s overvaluation of certain players—are noted as a major issue, with the hosts advocating for more balanced, injury-aware decisions. The show encourages fans to avoid overreacting to preseason hype or isolated injury reports, instead focusing on value and usage patterns.

Key players like Jaden Higgins, Jordan Tyson, and Mike Evans are under significant scrutiny due to injury concerns, but the hosts maintain that these risks are manageable and often outweighed by upside. Ultimately, the episode promotes a cautious, data-driven approach to fantasy football, where flexibility, injury awareness, and late-round value are central to success. The hosts also promote their draft guide and all-access membership, emphasizing the importance of staying updated with evolving injury news and player performance.

FAQs

You can watch the show live on YouTube at youtube.com/atlateroundff, typically on Wednesdays at noon Eastern time. A live stream is also scheduled and will auto-play after the episode.

Updated rankings are published regularly and are available on the show’s website. You don’t need to email or message—just check the site for the latest updates.

The volume of questions is too high for individual responses. The show team receives many inquiries and cannot address each one, which would require a full-time effort.

All-access members get all the content available to insider members, plus access to the annual draft guides that are released each year.

Yes, several key injuries have impacted projections, including Jaden Higgins (torn ACL), Mike Evans (ankle injury), and Kyron Williams (remaining uncertain), among others.

Injuries to key players can shift rankings significantly. Wide receivers face more uncertainty due to lack of depth, while running back injuries are more predictable and often lead to backup usage.

Chat with AI

Loading...

Pro features

Go deeper with this episode

Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.