205. The Secret Message in Todd Blanche’s Senate Hearing

Hello and welcome to the rest is politics US with me Katty K feeling kind of despondent after the very sad England loss but I'm glad that you have brought the appropriate t-shirt and t-scanmurgey. I think that's a little on the nose actually. I actually think you could have been a little bit more empathetic today. For those listening it says the British blew a 13 colony lead and there's George Washington with his sunglasses on. I think that's a little harsh today. I was cheering for the three lions yesterday. It was disappointed to see that but I will say this Katty as somebody who's vertically challenged there was a bunch of five foot seven people running around playing against a group of giants and they were beating up on them okay and so for all of you people that are built close to the ground like me there's hope for all of us. I guess I would say. So Anthony Scaramucci Lionel Messi in the same bracket is what we're saying. That is good as a delusion of grandeur. We are roughly the same height okay although I'm sure that we don't have the same body fat composition but we are roughly the same height but listen to quote Tony Pastor who's one of the founders here a gol hanger you can't defend against a lion like that you know you're going to end up getting caught but anyway listen was it a phenomenal World Cup run for the English team and everybody should tune in to Garolin occur and co on the on the rest is football on Netflix because they're doing a great job of analyzing how that match went down. Those of you who need a bit of therapy like in my house tune in there okay for us it's been a very busy few days on Capitol Hill there have been two extremely heated confirmation hearings and we're going to discuss the grillings of both the Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche who wants to become the Attorney General and take over from Pam Bondy and Trump's pick for Director of National Intelligence of course to take over from Chelsea Gabbard Jay Clayton these hearings were kind of exercises in how much loyalty can I show to Donald Trump. In the second after the show we are going to talk about the new wave of strikes on Iran blockades have been reinstated on the Strait of Hormuz I have been told that global oil supplies really have no buffer zone and we're close to running on empty what does that mean for the global economy but also how on earth could this whole process have been run so incompetently. So we'll talk about that in a second half but let's start and to deal with those hearings. I watched the hearings several hours each between Todd Blanche and the senators and Jay Clayton and the senators and my takeaway was that this was a big loyalty test that loyalty to Donald Trump was being tested in public and both of these men Jay Clayton and Todd Blanche who are respected figures otherwise are well known in Washington these are not the kind of Bill Pultie cash betel sort of fringe joke figures as those guys are seen in Washington these guys have a long history and long reputation and they are respected and yet over the course of those hearings both men in separate ways chose to show that they were going to put their loyalty to Donald Trump and their fear of Donald Trump over any expression of Canada and I think what we saw on Capitol Hill recently was American democracy and the elections process being tested and I'm not sure it holds up because both of these guys in separate ways show that they are not prepared to say to Donald Trump Joe Biden won the 2020 election our elections were free and fair in the case of Jay Clayton and in the case of Todd Blanche they are not prepared to say we are going to make sure that a deal that gives Donald Trump immunity from tax prosecutions or investigations is completely ripped up because that is what the president wants he wants that immunity I mean it was again it was in the kind of you know shocking but not surprising categories to hear these two men fall over themselves in the way that they did what did you think you know I know Jay personally and I've you know had dinner with Jay Jay's attended our conference in Wyoming I have an enormous amount of respect for Jay's a very thoughtful guy which is what I hear from a lot of people in this town he's a partner was a partner at Sullivan Cromwell he's a very respected guy and I will say this he's gonna get confirmed because he is a safe pair of hands in that job in a room surrounded by crazies but I want to just ask you a question what if Jay Clayton had said to Senator Ossov and I want to set the scene for everybody Senator Ossov from Georgia asked the question who won the 2020 election and Jay got combative with them and more or less wouldn't answer the question other than to say that Joe Biden got the electoral votes and the election was certified for Joe Biden but I guess the implication was that the vote count was fraudulent this is President Trump's statement of course there's been lawsuits can't find any fraud we've looked through the 2020 election every single person like Ashola Holmes scant little to no zero fraud etc but Jay Clayton is forced because of this loyalty test not to flat out say Joe Biden won the election Joe Biden got more votes Joe Biden etc but but Cady what if he did what would have been the ramifications for Jay Clayton vis-a-vis Donald Trump via just said to John Osso you know Joe Biden won the election well what would have been the ramifications I think it had been pulled I think he would not be up for director of national intelligence and Bill Pulty who is less competent and more of a conspiracy theorist would become director of national intelligence now you could I suppose make the argument that Jay Clayton who as you say is a respected guy refused when not just one senator for different democratic senators asked him very simply did Joe Biden win the 2020 election one of them John Ossov says this is a job interview you will be in charge of intelligence under the intelligence remit comes the integrity of American elections did Joe Biden win the 2020 election and the word salad the I mean it's it's really worth those of you who want to go and have a quick look at that clip do it because it is a fantastic example of verbal gymnastics and he's been taking lessons from Simone Biles or something it was phenomenal the way he got away with it and he just sort of sat sits there in silence and he's pushed and he's pushed and he won't say the words win and Joe Biden in the same sentence and I guess he may be saying to himself well if I do the president will get on the phone to me immediately and say okay you failed the test you're out and Bill Pulty is in and that would be worse for American democracy I mean maybe that is the rationale that he's giving himself is that what you're suggesting listen I think you're a hundred percent right I think he was told by White House officials if you fail this test the Democrats are going to ask you this and there's election fraud and Trump is speaking this evening he's got something very important to say to the American people tonight and I guess it's related to 2020 election so I would have been very bad for Jay Clayton but now it's time for trip US role play okay and so you are now a Roman Catholic priest which is very unlikely caddy well there's quite a lot of problems with that quite a lot but I just want you to hear me how you and I'm Jay Clayton I'm Jay Clayton because he's a fellow Catholic right now I'm coming into the confession booth and I am saying to my priest I'm saying you know I just told a very big lie I'm not George Washington I went before the Congress and I couldn't speak with the integrity about the election but father or sister the reason I did this was to protect the country the reason I did this this was a patriotic duty of mine did I impune my moral integrity did I did I do it further greater good of the country please help me with my moral and relative equivocation and you say Jay my child at the beginning of that hearing did you put your hand on the Bible and swear to tell the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth I did do that yes I did did you tell the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth Jay my son well that's why I'm here in the confession booth I sort of didn't but again this is for the greater good of the society we can have the Joker whose name I can't even remember Paul T I guess his name is Be the Chief can we Jay go and read Hannah Arrent because she is the one that will warn you that democracies get destroyed by leaders who put in place loyalty over competency in the aim of destroying the institutions of democracy and if you stand there in the Senate my son and you say that you are telling the truth and then you do not tell the truth over something as consequential as whether an American election was stolen then you are destroying trust in institutions you are good Catty Kaye could I make a good priest Okay, my puppy would be so proud of me and for the Catholics out there, that's 200 Hail Mary's and 500 Rosaries And you can get out of jail free. Okay, let's go to Epstein Yeah, I'm flipping over to Todd Blanche, and I want to talk about Epstein for a second Blanche apologized He said in about 1% of the documents Mistakes were made But he did not commit to meeting with the survivors. What do you say about that? So that's interesting because I was talking to Rokana and Thomas Massey, the two congressmen who have brought this new Epstein Transparency Act Epstein Transparency Act 2.0 and I was just speaking to them earlier this morning on morning Joe and one of the things that Todd Blanche said that has confused everybody because there were 10 Epstein survivors in that hearing and one of the senators Dick Durban was pressing Todd Blanche on whether he would meet with those survivors. Are you gonna meet them? And eventually Todd Blanche says, well I would love to meet with the survivors, but if they have lawyers I can't meet with them and both Rokana and Thomas Massey we were on set together Listen to the clip and looked at me quizzically and said that's just not the case under American law There is no reason that he can't meet with them. Remember by the way he went to met with Elaine Maxwell down in her prison And then she got transferred to a less secure prison But anyway, that's another issue perhaps But he could meet with the survivors. He is choosing not to meet with the survivors And I think it's I think we are in a week and we're between the Blanche hearing And the new Epstein Act and JD Vance going on Joe Rogan show And saying that they had a communications problem around the Epstein files Not a moral, ethical, political problem but a communications around the Epstein files I think the whole Epstein file issues is back on the front pages again here He was less combative than Pam Bondy He did express more empathy for the survivors He did say in principle he'd be happy to meet with the survivors But I don't think we got much more from him than we did from Pam Bondy frankly and it's still Telled Blanche according to Congressman Massey and Rokana has been a huge obstructionist When it comes to getting the Epstein files out So if he's Attorney General, I don't think we learn more about the Epstein files He's going to be Attorney General Cornon's going to vote for him even though he's Talking about this 1.8 billion dollar weaponization fund and so forth as being an appropriate Cornon to squawking but he will vote for him But Katty, something happened and I want you to answer contrived Or accidental and Freudian slip contrived and or Freudian slip And I'm going to read this to you, okay He is Trump's lawyer. He said I am Trump's lawyer Spell that out a little bit more. Okay, so do the setup So he was asked about his responsibilities He was asked about how he sees his responsibilities And he said well, I am the president's lawyer. I am Trump's lawyer And as you know, I have said repeatedly on this program The Department of Justice has become the Trump family law firm So he said this and then he took it back But Katty was that contrived And then choose me. I'm taking it back or was that a Freudian slip I think it was a Freudian slip. I mean it's interesting that you think it's right You think it was contrived. Yeah, absolutely. I think he wanted to get out there I am Trump's lawyer and then quickly say I am not Trump's lawyer. I was Trump's lawyer because this guy is a buttoned-up guy Okay, and let me tell you something, okay Todd Blanche if you want to go into an aging chamber and go from a 48-year-old looking guy To a 68-year-old looking guy in one year go work for Donald Trump And go work at the Department of Justice. Okay, because this guy Literally looks like he's aging like the Indiana Jones Enemies in episode one of Indiana Jones. Okay, so so to me I think he can try that and I think he said that to the audience of one and then he pulled it back But he did say something and this should reassure people listening here and I quote I don't believe he is eligible for a third term And I have said repeatedly on the podcast that Donald Trump is not running for a third term He's not running for a third term and there's there's one other thing that happened this week That if you're looking for green shoots in the American democracy And the eventual survival of the republic, which we are predicting on this program The republic of the United States is going to survive is that Donald Trump paid Catechay $5.6 million this week to E gene Carol he abided by the court Yeah, he has consistently done that And again, what is Trump after? I want glory and vanity I want your attention because I'm a miserable SOB and I want money But you know what he's going to be checking out at the end of two and a half years And Todd Lynch told you that because that was also contrived Catechay That's a message But okay, if two questions for you First question if Donald Trump was 10 years younger would he go for a third term? 1,000 percent maybe even five hundred Totally agree Okay, second question Might even go for five terms Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm permanently staying not leaving I'm never ever leaving So then the second question is the broader question from yesterday Of both Blanche and Clayton who we've established are competent people Do you think competent people Who won't contradict Trump on paper are more worrying than ideologues like Bill Pellty Or Cash Patel who say things out loud No, no they they are the say these are the John Kelly's And I hate to say this but you know, I see Clayton And even Blanche by the way because he's you know doing Trump's bidding But he's generally keeping the calls written from blowing its top These are the people that we're going to look back on and say wow They equivocated wow um You know it broke his principles But you know what we needed some people like them around Because otherwise this would be a full-on disaster going on now Now the the when when Patel came up Blanche defended him and let's just set the scene for that and I know we'll go to go to our next topic But when when Patel came up And they were calling a loser or whatever they were calling him Blanche got angry about it, but let me tell you something He thinks Patel is a loser okay, let's you and you could roll tape and we could analyze it together And I'm telling you That Patel I think is on the way out I think so too I think spending all this money on planes is is pissing the president off he doesn't like that This man gets confirmed He's going to go to the trumpster and he's going to say you got to get rid of the the beer guzzling lunatic Who's taking private jets to go and see his girlfriend playing cost another prediction on this pocket Okay, we're going to take a break and come back and talk about the latest on Iran Welcome back to the rest is politics US quick update. We're on where we are on Iran At the end of this week We thought it was worth talking about this because We are actually back at war with Iran at the moment Terran has launched fresh attacks against American military bases in neighboring Gulf Countries including in Jordan and Bahrain and Kuwait Which suggests that those military bases are no longer safe for American troops going forward And the US military says that it has inflicted six hour waves of strikes in multiple locations and the president is reportedly weighing A ground invasion of cog island again, which is the island where a lot of the Iranian refineries are 90% of Iran's oil passes through there. This would put American troops at risk But this is something that apparently he has Way just in the last couple of days. He went on Fox News and says I don't want to negotiate now But then he also told reporters that Iran better behave and threatened to target Iran's energy infrastructure If Terran failed to return to talk so it's a little confusing But there are reports that they are weighing more extreme military options at the moment JD Vance by the way has been on Joe Rogan's podcast. We mentioned that Talking about a whole load of things because Joe Rogan's podcast is even longer than our podcast and He said interestingly those who reject negotiations with Iran offer no realistic solution beyond endless and ineffective bombing Joe Rogan recorded that I think on Tuesday, Anthony But it looks a little bit like that that's what his boss is doing at the moment. Rejecting negotiations in favor of endless and ineffective bombing. - There's a lot going on here, but let's go back to Versailles. And we're signing the MOU in Versailles. - Great ceremony. - Yeah, and Cadi K is taking the over or the under that the MOU is going to last. We're talking about the day that it's signed. Is the MOU gonna last and they're heading for peace or are we gonna be in perpetual war? Cadi K says we're gonna be in perpetual war because that's what you said. So you ding, ding, ding, you deserve credit for this. But the real question I have for you, will the Trump administration end and will we still be at war on again, off again with Iran? Go ahead. - That is a great question. So that would be another two and a half years 'cause the Trump administration ends in January of 2029. We're in July of 2026. Do I think this is gonna go on for another two and a half years? I don't think it can go on for another two and a half years. And here's why. We are a serious crunch moment around global oil supplies. I had a conversation with somebody who had been formally in the CIA who covered oil markets and oil supplies for the CIA who said to me that we're kind of running on empty, that there really are just not very many buffers left. And commercial shippers are not happy about the idea of sending their ships through the straight of raw mousse, especially now that the bombing has restarted. But they weren't anyway. A lot of the traffic that the White House was boasting about picking up was actually ships that had been sitting idle inside the Gulf coming out. It wasn't new ships going in and out again. And all of these alternative routes that people are talking about the new pipelines, the new train lines. This analyst said to me it takes years to map, engineer, finance those routes. So anyone who's thinking that those routes are gonna pick up the slack anytime soon. That is a pipe dream. I don't think the world can afford for the straight of raw mousse to say, shut for the next two and a half years. They are gonna have to find some way to have some kind of understanding. And it may be that it's slightly on again, off again, but there's gonna have to be some understanding that gets oil out through that straight. You think we're gonna be at this scale of war for the next two and a half years, Anthony? - No, I don't think we're gonna be at this scale of war, but I'm gonna take the other side of this now and say that this is gonna be a protracted battle because the politics in Iran right now and the US hatred and the hatred towards Donald Trump are such where there's always gonna have to be some level of antagonism to keep the regime together. I think the economic situation is fragile in Iran. And so they're gonna find a way to get the oil through this straight, but what happened last week, you always gotta follow the money caddy. And so what happened last week is Lloyd's, they went from a.001% of cargo as a premium to a 5%. Okay, so when that happens, that's very, very bad for oil markets, that's why oil markets popped from like the 70s to the 85 zone. - That's because the shipping container owners don't believe it's safe to get there. It's way too expensive. - Exactly, it's way too expensive, but here's what I did like, it's $85 about not 114. - Two things, we've only just resumed the bombing and it's already gone from what's low 70s up to 85. - Right, but it didn't go to 114. - No, it didn't go to 114. It didn't go back to the super intense prices. I think the traders are saying that this is negotiations by another means and to your point, the SPR is drained. And so the patience is borrowed, but the market believes that both sides want to deal. But I do think you're gonna get oil flowing, but people sticking fingers in each other's eyes during the next two year period. Unless you're telling me something very dramatic happens in Iran and the economy causes a collapse of the IRGC, which I don't see happening, but I mean anything can happen. - Can I just say one other thing that quickly on that before we go to another, is that it's very worth everybody reading Ali Vias, I hope I've pronounced his name right, who's an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group, has done a really good op-ed in the New York Times, in which he makes the case for this becoming a forever war along the lines of what you're describing. But what Ali is saying is that what's interesting is that both sides see the MOU, the memorandum of understanding as a continuation of war by other means, and not as a bridge to peace. And in a way they both went into it thinking, we're not actually prepared to make the compromises that are necessary to get a real peace deal. This is just a way for us to prolong this process. And his argument having studied lots of conflicts is that that is how you get into forever wars, when there is not actually a desire on either side to make the compromises necessary to end the war. My biggest concern around all of this is that we just have a lack of competence on the American side. And I think the renewal of attacks this week, what has happened this week, has underlined the fact that the memorandum of understanding and this famous now paragraph five, which is one sentence, which is the sentence that says that Iran is gonna make its best efforts to allow transit through the Strait of Hormuz was so shoddly worded that it could be interpreted by the Iranians as we're gonna make the best effort to have them, the ships go exactly where we want them to go, so that we can monitor and control and potentially charge them in that process. And that was Donald Trump rushing things. He is impatient, he's sloppy, this he put in charge, Jared Kushner and Steve Wickoff, who do not have years of experience of negotiating these things. They negotiated it in 21 days, as opposed to the 20 months it took to negotiate the JCPOA, and they didn't have seasoned lawyers going over every word in that document saying, is this word open to misinterpretation? Is this phrase gonna be solid? And I think what has happened this week is a huge display of the worrying lack of competence that we have in this process at the top. And that's what might make this continue. - So that's my base case. We're gonna be fighting and oil's gonna be shipping, but we're gonna be fighting while the oil's shipping. I wanna go to sitting vice president, JD Vance. He picks Rogan and he goes on Rogan. Three hours show, Rogan has been decidedly critical of the forever worse. And so he's now gonna sell the Rogan people on the administration's approach, but he says something, Kay. Now, I'm gonna quote him now. "Beyond a shadow of it out. People inside the Israeli government are running a well-funded campaign to keep the war going." And I quote indefinitely. And then he cites a Times, doesn't mention a by name, but it's Brad Poscarl. It's basically Trump's former campaign manager. He basically says he's a paid conservative influencer. That's out there, okay, pumping the idea of keeping this going. You know, I thought there was a bite to that against Israel. Okay, now Vance, and then after the show was over, he broadly pushed back, blah, blah. But he did say that the Israelis want to keep this war going indefinitely. What are your thoughts on that? - Look, I've spoken to people in Tel Aviv who know far more about Israeli politics than I do, who have been right since October the 7th, asserting the idea that Benjamin Netanyah who wants the forever war, whether it's a forever war in Gaza, whether it's a forever war in Lebanon, or whether it's a forever war against Iran, because that is the way he keeps the Israeli public on side by highlighting the threats against Israel. He is the strong guy that will protect Israel. And staying in office is his ticket to staying out of jail, because if he is out of office and it's no longer the Prime Minister, he can be sent to jail on corruption charges. So I think there is an argument that you've been hearing for the last few years that that's exactly what Benjamin Netanyah who wants. And I think the doves inside the administration, the JD Vanses and Marco Rubio had a moment of supremacy over the last few weeks where they managed to pull Donald Trump back around the negotiations of the MOU back from these attacks. But now with the news that Donald Trump is considering, and who knows him, it's Donald Trump, he could change his mind again tomorrow, right? His mind is made up until it's not made up, but with the news that he is considering going much further with the tax potentially with some kind of ground invasion of Carg Island, it's the hawks who are in the ascendancy again. And that is good news for Benjamin Netanyahu. I think what is interesting to me about the Vans interview on Rogan is how does he politically get out of this? How does he manage to persuade the anti-interventionist America first side of the Republican party that he always wanted to refrain from going into Iran whilst saying what he needs to say to support the president. It's a very tricky needle for him to thread. I would not have gone on Rogan if I was JD Vance. I know he thought about this. Rogan gets too much attention. Donald Trump wants all the attention on him. He set himself up with a loyalty paradox now because he can have it both ways with Donald Trump. You can't be the peace loving and forever war negotiator and then go on Rogan and try to sell the Trump administration's policies. That sort of good cop bad cop stuff doesn't really work. You're either with Trump or you're against Trump and I think he's going to get set up as the fall guy here in this situation. I think he's going to get blistered by Trump. I think it was a mistake for him to go on Rogan. But having said that, listening to the interview, Vance is a smart guy. If he is running in 2028, which is not clear to me that he is, he's still the front runner. Even though everyone's eyes are on Rubio, he's still the front runner because he is the vice president of the United States. Do you want a little bit of gossip? Please. You know, I spend weekends out in Virginia about an hour or so outside Washington. Apparently, the Vance's are looking to acquire a property out there, which I suspect is Usha Vance wanting to get the heck out of Dodge at weekends with all her children. But also, doesn't that indicate to you that he's planning to stay around in DC for a while? You don't go and find yourself a farm in Virginia and hour outside of Washington. I don't know if they're renting it or buying it. That's what I need to find out. But anyway, it made me think, oh, maybe they are planning to stay for a while. In which case, maybe he's planning to run because he's not going back to the Senate. He's not going to win. So he does, and he probably doesn't have enough self-awareness to start to run. So he'll probably run. There'll be a blood sport between him and Rubio. We'll see. But he's a smart guy. I read both of his books and you can dislike JD Vance. He's a smart guy. But threading the needle with Donald Trump the way he's trying to do has never worked. He could be the first person to do it. But I seriously doubt that. Look for the bombs to go off over JD Vance's head. And talking of that, Antony and I are going to do a series for our founding members on JD Vance, the heir apparent in the Republican party. We're going to be releasing that in August. You can become a founding member of course by joining us at therestispolitexus.com. And on the website you can also get tickets to our live tour of the US in October. We're super excited about that. Come and join us and we'll be taking your questions. That's it for this week. We'll be back on Monday. Thanks so much for joining us. Thanks for listening guys. Thanks guys. We'll see you next week. Hello everybody. We got some exciting news for you. That's right, Catty. We are holding a summer sale on our founding members subscriptions from now until the end of August. You can get a years membership to our show for a third off. I think that's a real bargain. Okay, you just need to use the code summer 26 when you sign up for an annual membership and you'll unlock ad free listening. You'll get our bonus episodes and of course our exclusive mini series. We've got a series covering Marco Rubio, Elon Musk, Trump's health and so much more including these very popular, Catty, these question and answer sessions. So head to therestispolitexus.com to claim this discount. We'd love to have you with us in the club. We'll have plenty to talk about over the next few months. So make sure you don't miss out. What more could our listeners want Catty K than this uninterrupted sound of our voices? Maybe not my voice, but certainly your voice, Catty. Okay, we want to accompany you on all your summer travels. So go to the code summer 26 Excess PileTics, US.com, and sign up.