The Races You Should Be Watching Tonight

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That's AvocadoGreenMatress.com to get up to 20% off AvocadoGreenMatress.com. It's Tuesday, November 3rd. Here we go. We start here. I have delivered on my promises. It's election day in America. Every campaign event I go to, there's somebody comes up to me and tears and just says, "You've given me hope again." From the races that could turn the tide? Is he a flawed candidate? Yeah, but every candidate's flawed. To a potential wave, there's a scenario where this is a lot tighter, a lot closer than anyone thought. We're about to preview the scenarios you should be ready for at night. From ABC News, this is a special edition of Start Here. I'm Brad Milky. Two years ago, this was the scene as President Trump pulled off perhaps the biggest political comeback of the century. It is now clear that we've achieved the most incredible political thing. Look what happened. Is this crazy? He'd overcome impeachments, criminal indictments, memories of a nerve-wracking pandemic, even assassination attempts, and fought his way back into the White House. They said he will start a war. I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars. The American people seemed motivated by frustration, a stagnant economy, a chaotic series of global events. This will truly be the golden age of America. That's what we have done. Well, two years later, many of those same concerns linger. Some have even heightened, and tonight, polls will close in the midterm elections. In today's show, we're going to be focusing entirely on the midterms. Our team is here ready to go in New York at our election headquarters, and later we will also be hearing from our team fanned out around the country. But here's what you need to keep in mind at the end of the day. A couple of numbers. The number three, and the number four. Three is how many seats Democrats need to flip the house. Every single seat is up for election today, so basically any narrow win for the Democrats, that should do it. The other number is four. That is perhaps even more important, because this is how many seats Democrats need to flip the U.S. Senate. That would have been considered a tall order, even impossible when Trump was elected two years ago. But according to the polls, more and more potential Republican pickups have become toss-ups, more toss-ups have started to lean blue. In fact, during a speech yesterday, Trump seemed to preemptively concede a certain level of defeat. For some reason, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms, but we gave this a very strong shot. And yet, I don't care how much studying you've done for this. No one quite knows what's about to happen here, which is why every election day, I like to cruise by one particular colleague's desk and ask him what he expects to happen. So, I figured I would take that conversation today and just put it on a microphone. This is a segment I like to call how ABC's DC Bureau Chief Rick Klein will be watching election night. It features, guess who, ABC's DC Bureau Chief Rick Klein? Rick, happy election day. We can work on branding on that, Brad, but thanks, this great to be with you, happy election day. It's a long title, yeah. Hey, before we even get into how you think tonight could play out, might play out, what is different about this midterm election than other midterms that you've covered in recent memory? It's a great question. I mean, look, we see the big theme around affordability about gas prices and diesel prices and frustration with the president. What issues matter the most to you here in Maine? I'd say gas prices definitely, and like ending the war in Iran. We may change. We may change. We may change. A lot of that actually is familiar if you've watched midterms in the past. We've had midterms about unpopular wars or even unpopular presidents. This happens to be about both at the same time and the economic issues that are colliding have done something really remarkable where the playing field, even in this very polarized time, has expanded dramatically just in the last couple of weeks. We went from a situation where Democrats really didn't have much of a shot at taking the Senate. It's suddenly talking about Senate races in places like South Carolina and Mississippi. Not to mention Iowa and Kansas. Do you vote it for Trump in 2016? I did. 2020. I did. 2024. I did? Or yes. And you're going to vote Democrat? I'm going to vote Democrat for a pastor at for Adam Hamilton for the US Senate. You have to say that. So we've seen the political situation deteriorate for Republicans to a degree that there are a lot of surprises out there on the map. But of course, we won't know until the votes are counted later today and often in the days or even weeks to come, where things exactly land. So there's just a greater quantity of characters and interesting figures as well as just more dynamics of play than any major Mike and remember. Well, and so ABC's got these race ratings, right? Where they look at different states and we go, according to polling and all these different factors, here's where you can imagine things landing. But can you just walk me through like election night? You'll be on the set tonight with David Muir and Lindsey Davis, the whole gang. How could you see this plausibly playing out? Like what scenarios seem real to you? Yeah, I mean, there's a scenario where this is a lot tighter, a lot closer than anyone thought. I mean, Democrats need to pick up just three seats in the house. If they don't do that, it's disastrous for Democrats and for the polling industry, frankly. But there's also a scenario where they pick up a relatively poultry amount of seats, say less than 10 or so. And that would be something of a disappointment and they could also fall short in the Senate very easily. They have to net four seats in the Senate. That's still a high bar. Even if you just take away the easy ones, the low hanging fruit, they could still end up a couple short. And we're going to know relatively early the direction of the night. We won't know the exact count for a long, long time. But we're going to see polls in Indiana and Kentucky close right at six o'clock. That there's at least one good district in Kentucky to watch for early indications and turn out in Indiana. By seven o'clock, you've got polls closing in Georgia, South Carolina, and most of Florida. Those are big battlegrounds. And we'll see how close it is in Florida and South Carolina. Georgia, we're expecting the Democrats to win in John Ossoff. But if South Carolina and Florida are close, we're looking at a really good opportunity for Democrats to expand the map. By 730, North Carolina and Ohio, those are two prime pickup opportunities for Democrats. And then by eight o'clock, you got some of the real biggies starting to close. Michigan, Maine, Texas, the rest of Florida, and then Mississippi. So in that eight or nine o'clock hour, as we start to see numbers, I think we'll have a sense if we're talking about a smaller scenario or something quite a bit bigger. Right. And how do you gauge that? Like, are there states that are going to make you go, "Oh, wow. GOP is overperforming here." Or, "Oh, wow. Democrat, this is not just a blue way. This is a blue tsunami of sorts, or anything in between." Oh, definitely. And the race ratings play into this a little bit. But, you know, on the outside of things, if any seats flip in some of these redder places, Florida was a place where Democrats were really on the defensive after a aggressive redistricting by Governor Ron DeSantis. That's almost certainly not going to work. And it's possible the Democrats hold or even win a seat or two that they weren't going to otherwise come through with. Pennsylvania, there's three really solid Republican seats in the past where people have just defied expectations. Maine on the Senate side is kind of similar. Susan Collins has stood all these challenges in the Trump era by putting some distance between herself and the rest of the Republican Party. I think she's done a fantastic job. And I think we will be foolish to get rid of her. We're going to be looking at Latino voters in Texas. We remember how Donald Trump swung them so dramatically. Republicans were so confident of their chances going into this year that they actually re-drew the districts in the middle of the decade to make it more favorable. The problem is that could easily backfire because those voters might not necessarily end up being Republican voters. And then, if you look at places like Kansas and Iowa, they were never supposed to be on the map. And if Democrats are able to pick up seats in states like that, it changes rather dramatically what it means for the Democratic coalition, what it means for Republicans going forward to say nothing of some of these states in the South. The black voters have seemed to have woken up in Mississippi, for instance. That's a big deal. South Carolina where Darling Graham is running for a full term after her brother's passing just a few months ago. Democrats in shouting distance on that one. Then that starts to look a lot different. Then you start to talk about new coalitions. And Texas, I mean, look, everything's big in Texas, right? And we know this race so many times we've talked about Texas as potentially competitive. This is one of the absolute marquee matchups. And to have James Tallerico against the very unpopular and a scandal played Ken Paxton, the long time attorney general. I think Kansas's all a guy. I mean, I know a lot of people that feel like his personal issues are an issue. And there's still Democratic defense. They have to hold on in Michigan. Abdul Al-Sayed has kind of rocked the political establishment and we've got a lot of late-breaking developments that seem to have complicated things for voters. But if he succumbs to Mike Rogers, then we're actually talking about a Republican pickup in a big battleground state. Is it a given-- say, I'm just thinking of like possibilities. Like, how connected are these states? Like, if Maine goes blue early and Susan Collins is out of a job all of a sudden, does that mean that all of a sudden Kansas is in play for Democrats or Texas is in play for Democrats? Like, how connected are each of these things? Yeah, look, the issues that are animating this year are very similar. And if there's a big rebellion against the Republican Party, then Susan Collins can only withstand so much of that and i think it's a similar situation in an iowa where josh torrick has a spirited democratic campaign against congresswoman ashley hinson that would be the national environment in large part the obama coalition that used to make iowa winnable for democrats would be back in play uh. kansas iowa nebraska ohio michigan was constant that's where there's a governor's race a lot of these states connect to each other and the issue certainly connect and the broad swath of the upper bin west that's one big area for the battle ground and we hear so much about diesel prices gas prices uh. tariffs and what it's meant for people and then latino voters in places like texas and florida and finally black voters in the south that's the connective tissue of a north carolina and a Georgia and a south carolina and a mississippi so yes the tendency is that that states flip in kind of a similar direction that the country speaks in a national mood during a national election cycle but there are always exceptions it could be that democrats do extraordinarily well but susan colons is left standing it could be that we're waiting on main waiting on elaska for several days even knowing the democrats have the majority or it could be the majority hinges on those states that take a heck of a lot of time to count and rick and rachel scott will be in front of the screens as the numbers are literally coming in from that decision desk from the d_d_s_ uh. late night coming up i'm sure thank you so much rick thanks brad okay so that's the broad strokes next up on start here let's get nitty gritty the six races you did not know you should even be paying attention to right after the break this show is sponsored by quince the best pieces in your closet of the ones you can count on whether you're heading to work going out or keeping things casual and this time a year quince is the place to find 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secret savings dot com slash start here to get forty percent off the lug bag that's right for you today that's abc secret savings dot com slash start here critics are raving wild horse nine is a blood thumping comic thriller who are you the CIA we are the see John McVitch and Sam Rockwell are a dynamite pair in this wildly different kind of buddy movie you're always eating to stop it yeah if you're shooting a guy this Friday John McVitch Sam Rockwell Steve Loosheni and Parker foesie star in one of the best films of the year I've killed people in countries you can't even spell name one check out the Slovakia wild horse nine only theaters Friday rated are under 17 on a middle without parent I am Andy Richter I might not have won the mirror ball last season that was so fun but I did win the best gig ever hosting the dancing with the stars official podcast get ready for all the inside scoop from the cast all right well let's get to work behind the scene secrets and more from every episode that was mongering it's gonna be iconic all my dreams are coming true dancing with the stars official podcast new episodes every Thursday on Disney plus and Hulu and wherever you get your podcasts okay so if you've been listening to the show at all in recent weeks you probably were not surprised to hear Rick mentioned Texas back there or Michigan or Alaska well as the night goes on you're gonna be zooming in on states you've never been to districts you've never heard of so I figured we'd do something different in the back half of the show right now all year we've had this team of embeds our young hungry producers who've been following these campaigns in person found out around the country most of them are in the field right now they've been living out of a suitcase surviving on energy bars so we asked each one of them to call in and tell us in two minutes or less the race they think everyone should be paying attention to as results come into night some of these might swing the balance of power in the Senate others might be the governor's mansion others might just be local but all of these should tell us about the broader issues that have been underpinning national politics all year so enough for me let's get into the start here voicemail box hey this is Gabby Vinick I've been covering Kansas and one race I think everyone should be paying attention to tonight is the U.S. Senate race what do Republicans do we give you secure borders a safe family a strong military and lower taxes Republican Senator Roger Marshall is defending his seat against Democrat Adam Hamilton it's not really about me this was not my career ambition it wasn't what I thought I'd be doing in my sixties this is a state that's run by double digits three times but Hamilton has some crossover appeal he's the pastor of the largest United Methodist congregation in the country and he says he's an independent-minded Democrat Kansas has elected Democrats to the governorship but it's been nearly a hundred years since a Democrat won a seat in the Senate so to me Brad what's interesting here is we're seeing both national economics but also local Kansas values that play I ran his what it is and he's doing what he needs to do so we'll hang with it as long as he hangs with it we'll hang with him my little red car that goes down the road knees that gall in down the gas so I use just counts and step when I can I'd like to see that go back down so economics we're seeing the Iran War tariffs rising gas prices hitting Kansas especially for farmers but then you're also seeing the Democrats say he really wants to play nice he wants to work across the aisle he talks about hope every campaign have been I go to there somebody comes up to me and tears and just says you've given me hope again and I feel really grateful for that you may associate the Wizard of Oz with Kansas and he uses that story to talk about what's missing in Washington not just a brain and a heart but courage he's criticized Marshall and Trump but he's also distance himself from the Democratic Party label to be liberal means to be generous of spirit and open to seeing things with new eyes everybody should be that to be conservative means to be you know to hold on to things that are treasures the the conserve values everybody should be that and he could offer a playbook for Democrats to win back support among rural voters who say they feel up behind Adam Hamilton is funded by Chuck Schumer to the tune of over twenty five million dollars do you think he won't be Chuck Schumer's boy Chuck Schumer's puppet but Marshall has framed the election around which party has control of the Senate focusing you know more on party over the individual so this race is kind of a microcosm of a larger conversation about how people who are literally smack dab in the middle of the country and at large feel about where we're headed hi i'm Diana Paulson and i'm an embed for ABC news i've been covering Michigan Ohio Minnesota and Texas this election season but for election day here's what you need to know about the Ohio Senate race it's gonna be one of the most expensive in the country half a billion dollars already spent and it's gonna break the record set by Ohio two years ago that's when senator shared brown lost his seat and became former senator shared brown this year he's facing off against senator john hewsted who is appointed to a seat just a year ago everyone keeping track this is a race where it kind of seems hard to determine who is the incumbent at some points and that's been on purpose shared brown built this system he is the system thirty two years in Washington he built this failed system i'm trying to fix it john hewsted likes to refer to his opponent as senator shared brown trying to make it appear as if he's the one in office where shared brown is trying to paint his opponent john hewsted as corrupt and out of touch that kind of corruption john hewsted's been part of that his whole career in state government now in the federal government on data centers and in the pocket of big data centers which would become a huge issue in the state of Ohio that's seen some of the biggest developments in the country our modern life depends on them we just need to make sure that uh we're only putting them where communities want them for his part john hewsted is now said he supports more regulation and the president seems to be trying to move all of the attention off of him being the face of data centers to focusing on other parts of his political appearance in many many of his campaign rallies and when you reelect john hewsted one of the best one of the most respected senators in Washington john hewsted john hewsted has been held by a huge boost of late money from the Republican Party and major spending on behalf of him by pro-cryptocurrency groups. The data center is the crypto crowd, the people that the billionaires that certainly don't need this money, and then the local people have no say over it. Senator Sherrod Brown was one of the harshest regulators of cryptocurrency in his time in the Senate and is expected to be so if he would go back again. But all eyes will be on the buck-eye state this election night as we see whether or not they can grapple back a state that's gone significantly ready for last three elections. Thanks Brad. Hey Brad, this is Jared Kofsky. I've been covering New York State and one reason I think everyone should be paying attention to tonight is the House race in New York's 17th congressional district. That's in the Hudson Valley suburbs just north of New York City and it's currently represented by a Republican Congressman Mike Lawler. The economy is growing over a million private sector jobs have been created over the last year and a half. And he's trying to keep his seat, but he's facing a tough challenge from a Democratic combat veteran. Her name is Kate Conley. For the first time in modern American history, the economic prospects of young Americans are worse than their parents or grandparents. Ladies and gentlemen, that is America failing, not succeeding. This might be one of the most high profile house races in the entire country tonight. It's certainly going to be one of the most expensive. Control of Congress could come down to the 17th district, so that's probably why national political leaders have been paying so much attention to it. Thanks so much. It's great to be back in Rockland County. I think I've been here more than your opponent. I was in Rockland County, New York last week when House Speaker Mike Johnson visited. He was there to campaign with Mike Lawler and even Johnson said that everybody in the country will be closely watching this race, everybody. It will be one of the most expensive races in the history of Congress because the stakes are so very high. This is one of the only swing districts in New York and it's a really diverse one. I mean, it includes communities with large Jewish communities. It includes large Haitian American communities. It includes some of the Westchester suburbs that are popular with Wall Street bankers. And some of its other towns are really popular with police officers and firefighters who commute down to the city. Bill and Hillary Clinton live in this district and it was actually a blue district before Mike Lawler flipped it in the 2022 midterms. I am delivered on my promises. We delivered the largest tax cut in American history. Take Conley, she was once a military police officer, she's more of a moderate Democrat. It is no wonder we have five data centers already in Mike Lawler's home county of Rockland with three more on the way. And people in their party feel like she's their best chance in order to flip the seat. But this is really a must-win race a lot of Democrats feel if they want to win back control of Congress and Republicans are really aiming to keep this area red. So we're going to have to see what happens tonight, but this is probably one of the most interesting races in the country and it's right here in New York. Hey, this is Holly Trotek. I've been covering Georgia this cycle and one race that I really think folks be paying attention to tonight is the race for governor. We're going to see Republican Rick Jackson face off against Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the governor's mansion since the late 90s. But today, in 2026, the race is neck and neck. I need you to vote to make sure that Keisha Lance Bottoms doesn't destroy Georgia just like she did at Atlanta. Keisha Lance Bottoms, she's the former mayor of Atlanta. She is pretty high-name recognition. She also worked in the Biden administration after a pretty controversial first-terms mayor as the city dealt with things like COVID and rising crime rates. But one thing about Keisha Lance Bottoms is she has the momentum that Democrats have nationally on their side right now as voters sour on Trump and the economy. And my opponent has put in over $100 million of his own money in this race. And this race is still tied. One other thing that's really interesting about this race is it couldn't have been historic. If Keisha Lance Bottoms wins, she will be the first black woman governor, not just in Georgia, but in the nation. It is 2026 and a black woman has yet to govern any state in this country. What do you think that tells you about America? Not yet, but soon and very soon. And then on the other side of the aisle, the Republican nominee Rick Jackson, he's a political outsider. He's never held public office before. Don't have anything to prove. I really don't. But I have a lot to give. And that's why I'm running. So I need-- Beat out the Trump-backed candidate in the Republican primary. One really big thing going for him right now, he is virtually unlimited funds. He is a billionaire. He's spent over $200 million of his own personal fortune in this race, getting his name out there to voters and telling his story. I had seven different stepfathers and a mother who battled alcoholism. I live with five different foster families and attended 13 different schools. He had an extremely troubled childhood. He grew up in the state's foster care system and has this sort of rags to riches tail. One thing though, and this has been true for Republicans across the country is he's had to kind of manage his distance from Trump. In the primary, he campaigned to be Trump's favorite governor and said he'd be Trump with a Southern tone, whereas now in the general election, he's been sort of trying to align with the current Republican governor of Georgia who's term-limited, governor Kemp, and saying that he will be a continuation of Kemp's leadership. Recent polling has the race in a virtual tie. And folks I talk to you in Georgia today aren't really sure how things are going to shake out. I definitely want to watch tonight. Hey Brad, this is Emily Chang. I've been covering the Texas midterm elections and I'm on the ground right now in Austin, Texas. And while all the attention is on the Texas Senate race, which is just as interesting to me are those U.S. house races. You might recall a year ago, Republicans re-drew congressional lines. They were expecting to pick up five house seats. But you know, this plan seems to be backfiring. You know, tougher than expected races that these Republicans are finding themselves in and they're battling potential backlash over the administration's immigration policies and the economy. You working for the one job? I do. I have multiple shells in common. And every day I have to get up. I drag getting up sometimes because of them on work I have to put in just the pay for the minimum of things of the day. One Republican strategist told me yesterday, you know, they expect to lose some seats in the South Texas area. And that's right by the border and that comes despite President Trump's high performance in that area just two years ago. But you know, all that being said, at the statewide level, Democratic leaders, they're still being cautious with their optimism. You know, some county leaders I spoke to, they're definitely citing this surge of Democratic energy. And they've say they've never seen this before and all this voter excitement across the state is at levels unlike any other past year. And now I am leaning towards Democratic even though I have not voted Democratic in use. But you know, there's also some historical headwinds to battle here. A Democrat has not been elected to the U.S. Senate in Texas in 38 years. And Democrats here in Texas, they're used to this feeling of, you know, getting excited and getting all this enthusiasm drummed up but then ultimately getting let down. So it's an incredibly tight race and we'll have to see how the voters decide. Hey, this is Gladys Gonzalez. I'm a midterm reporter covering races in the Southwest and today I'd like to take you down to sunny Southern California where dramatic mayor race is underway in Los Angeles. You might know LA for its Hollywood glitz and glamour or maybe you know it better for its not so polished reputation like a growing homelessness crisis and the city's high cost of living. And the city is gearing up to host the 2028 Summer Olympics soon, which will come with a lot of security and financial risks, deciding who will lead the next four years is pretty consequential. My focus on homelessness, number one was getting people off the streets. I was hoping it could be reformed. Now I believe we need to have an entirely new system. We have two players in this race, the incumbent, Democrat mayor Karen Bass and Democrat Nithia Rahman, a city council member trying to incite her. On one hand, you have incumbent mayor Karen Bass. She was elected in 2022 and became the first woman mayor of Los Angeles and second ever black mayor of the city. A lot of criticism we hear from voters is her response or lack thereof to the deadly palisades fires of 2025. It is in line with so many of the ways in which her campaign has been deflecting from her record. And that brings us to her challenger, councilwoman Nithia Rahman. Now, Rahman and Bass used to be political allies. Rahman even endorsed Bass earlier this year. But things turned sour back in February when she up ended the race by joining in a last minute bid. It's been a bitter contest all year between the two, but Rahman embodies something a lot of residents I've spoken to are looking for, a young Democrat looking for change in community advocacy. What I want to offer in my mayoral candidacy is a choice. We don't have to pick our broken status quo. But a lot of the criticism she faces surrounds her strained relationship with other city council members, a controversial video that inferred she was calling the city mayor and/or LAPD fascists, an inconsistent rhetoric regarding the LAPD. Like whether she would work to fire the police chief. We likely won't name a winner on election night, but be sure to tune into our election coverage to stay up to date. Wow, that was really cool to hear, I think, from all of our embeds fan-dad across the country. I feel smarter after listening to them. Hope you do too. Buckle up. Our entire team is standing by for election night coverage. It starts at 7 p.m. Eastern that is on ABC News Live, on Hulu, on Disney Plus YouTube, wherever you stream, me and the start here team will be on site talking to our team of experts, by the way, so we will have the pod ready for you first thing in the morning. I'm Brad Milky, go vote, if you haven't already. I'll see you tomorrow. Please check the number and dial again or call your operator to help you. Last October's brazen daytime heist at the Louvre was shocking. Now, nearly a year out, there are still critical questions to be answered. Where did they go? And second, where did they come from? 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