The Races That Could Change Everything on Election Night | 11.3.26

the midterms have finally arrived and the battle for control of the senate has been the costliest and most contentious ever i'm georgia howe with daily wire executive editor john bickley it's tuesday november 3rd election day and this is morning wire 36 governorships are up for grabs along with all 435 house seats we run through the key races to watch and will president trump have to become mr veto after the midterm dust settles if that happens i guess um mr i'll become mr veto and then at some point we'll probably make deals that's what's happened i mean this is this wouldn't be the first time you thanks for waking up with morning wire stay tuned we have the news you need to know it's officially cozy season the sweaters come out it gets darker earlier and suddenly pumpkin spices everywhere which sounds healthy pumpkin spice fantastic unfortunately your pumpkin spice latte does not count as eating your vegetables and this is also the time of year when good habits can start slipping a little we're busier we're inside more so instead of attempting some elaborate fall health reset sometimes it's better to focus on habits that are actually easy to keep that's what we like about balance in nature their whole health system brings together 47 ingredients from real whole fruits vegetables spices and fibers in a really simple daily routine three fruit capsules three veggie capsules and two scoops of fiber and spice no complicated routine just an easy way to add more whole food ingredients to your day even when cozy season starts winning right now new customers can get 35 off their first subscription to the whole food system so it's a really easy way to keep your at balanceofnature.com with promo code WIRE. That's balanceofnature.com, promo code WIRE for 35% off your first subscription. Election day is finally here. And after some record spending, we're finally going to learn who will control the Senate. Joining us now in studio is our DC Bureau Chief, Tim Rice. Great to have you here. So happy to be here, guys. Nothing to talk about today. No, I figured we'd just catch up. The day is finally here. You know, we wanted to start with the Senate. The Senate has had the most focus nationally for good reason. There's been lots going on there. And there's been a lot of developments in the last days before this election, more so than I can ever remember happening. So let's start with Michigan. That's one we've been tracking very closely. What's the latest there? Yeah, so this whole blow up between Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, and Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who he narrowly defeated in a primary earlier this year, the Democratic primary. Um, on Sunday, she shocked pretty much everybody by going to church with and then appearing at a rally and endorsing Republican Mike Rogers, who she had obviously been running against as the presumptive Democrat. She said that she's really, really gotten nervous about his stance on Israel and his refusal to do things like denounce the Muslim Brotherhood, explain his ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. And most recently, the straw that broke her back, it seems, was this super PAC ran that ad that I'm sure many of our viewers have seen, essentially saying that Americans, American taxpayer dollars are going to killing Palestinians, right? And she asked him, she said, I will endorse you and I will campaign for you in the final days of this campaign if you denounce this ad. And instead, El-Sayed uninvited her from the rally that she was supposed to join him at. So instead, she came out and endorsed Mike Rogers and was very clear about the reason for that. So a really stunning act from this woman whose career in Democratic politics is almost certainly over, regardless of the outcome of that race, and really just kind of putting a final point on this explosive race that we're going to see in the next couple of years. And it was really driven by El-Sayed's criticism of Israel and radical Muslim points that he's been making. But nevertheless, A, to your point, John, just maybe one of the most shocking things we've ever seen happen just a couple of days before an election. Well, and then his comments about transgenderism. Right, that's right, yeah. Really went viral. Yeah, he went on 60 Minutes. What happened? Do you think that's going to have an impact? Yeah, you know, that's another one where, and so just for context, he went on 60 Minutes and Ross Douthat asked him about his statements and, you know, about, well, you know, let's get down, let's drill down to the most serious, right, not talking about women's sports or things. Let's talk about locker rooms in middle schools. Should biological boys be in locker rooms with biological girls, vice versa? And his kind of flippant answer was, well, you know, if they don't learn about this sort of thing in the locker room, they'll learn about it on the internet. They all have smartphones. So again, a very shocking statement that in any other race and with any other candidate, I think would have a really big impact even this late in the game. The problem is that Abdul El-Sayed has been saying stuff like this from the beginning. It did not stop him from winning the primary. It did not stop Democratic elites and leaders and the media from flocking behind him. It hasn't stopped him so far. Now, moving to Texas, that's the other really hot Senate race that we've been tracking the past few months. Where do things stand now with Ken Paxton versus James Tallarico? It's incredibly close. This is another one that, much like Michigan, has been very divisive. Sort of a couple of shocking candidates, right? If you think back, of course, Ken Paxton, the attorney general of Texas, defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Republican primary. And James Tallarico sort of had every Republican strategist in the country scared out of their minds when he dropped that first ad. It seemed like there was finally a Democrat who knew how to run on being a devout Christian. James Tallarico then spent the entire campaign disabusing anyone of the notion that he was anything close to a devout Christian. Just yesterday, our colleague, Leif LeMayhew, had a pretty incredible story that James Tallarico follows a lot of pornographic accounts on Twitter, including one who is a male porn actor who it seems was his friend in college and whom he still follows on Twitter and had some curious interactions with. Back in their college days. So I'd encourage everybody to read that story. I will say, unlike Michigan. Don't follow all the links. Don't follow any of the links. No, we obviously didn't put anything bad in there. Unlike in Michigan, we have seen how the public reaction to Tallarico's extreme leftist beliefs has shifted the race, right? He went on Fox News and tried to walk back previous comments about trans children. He used to say that he was a vegan. Now he swears that he isn't. And there's all these clips of him kind of pretending to enjoy cheeseburgers at barbecues. And he's like, and things like that. So we have seen Tallarico try to move to placate Texas moderates and potentially undecided voters. The biggest probably obstacle there is Paxton himself. He has a little bit of a checkered past. He hasn't gotten much help from Donald Trump, who has spent a lot of time on the campaign trail talking about how he doesn't really think that Ken Paxton is a good candidate. But the other thing that I would encourage people to look at is obviously that Senate race has dominated a lot of the media attention, certainly a lot of the attention about Texas. There are a lot, a really fascinating and close house races in Texas that we don't have time to get into now, but you can pop over to our midterm hub and look at them, get your picks in if you haven't yet. But there's, that's a lot too, right? Obviously for Democrats, the prize is getting a Democratic senator. A final question. So we've also looked at Alaska more than we had planned to. It's gotten very fascinating. There's a legal battle. Where does that stand? And what are some other races to watch? The Dan Sullivan scandal. No one really knows that the latest development is that people can't find decoy Dan as they're calling him the independent. Candidate drafted by Democrats in order to throw people, to confuse people as they approach Alaska's ranked choice voting system, but still an incredibly tight race between the real Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola. Maine, of course, will Susan Collins be able to pull off what's probably her fifth surprise election in a very blue leaning state against Troy Jackson. I would also keep an eye on and will be keeping an eye on Kansas for Roger Marshall put out a somewhat interesting closing message. And then New Hampshire, I'm still a lot of people think New Hampshire is in the bag with Congressman Chris Pappas, but John Sununu, who has comes from a New Hampshire political family, a very beloved New Hampshire political family. His father and brother were both governors. One was a senator. If you're going to be a Republican and win in New Hampshire, it helps to be a guy named John Sununu. He's also just a very likable and popular candidate, has a lot of cross appeal. He famously got President Trump's endorsement, but has never actually met President Trump. So that allows him to kind of skirt this line. But yeah, there's what, 35 Senate races, every House race, 36 governor's battles. It is going to be a fun day. All right, well, Tim, we're looking forward to it. Thanks for coming on. Anytime, guys. The fall weather is really kicking in and I just got my Jack Archer range joggers and I've been using them for running and golf out here in the chilly weather. And boy, am I glad I did. They're exactly what I was expecting. They are soft, they are stretchy, and they look great. And that's what I like about the idea behind Jack Archer. The clothes are comfortable enough for your everyday routine. But they still look put together. Now, these range joggers have four-way stretch, a relaxed fit with a tapered leg, and moisture-wicking fabric. They're designed to move with you, whether you're working out or traveling or just having a laid-back weekend. 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This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. All 435 House seats and 36 Governor's races are also on the ballot today. Here to preview it all is Wired in host Cabot Phillips. So Cabot, what's the landscape as it relates to the House and the Governor's races? Well, let's go through all 435. We'll start with House District number one. No, Georgia. It is a mixed bag, but it's been trending the wrong way for the GOP in recent months, similar to the Senate. There's little question about that. Republicans right now hold just a 219 to 214 seat majority in the lower chamber, meaning Democrats only need a net gain of just three seats. And guys, it goes without saying that since World War II, the President's party has lost an average of 26 seats each midterm. Most experts are forecasting a 12 to 25 seat pickup for Democrats. And the outlook for the Governor's races is not much better for Republicans. But again, it's worth pointing out the experts have been wrong plenty of times. We don't want to get out ahead of our skis too much here. Republicans on the Governor's side are trying to hold the mansions in four purple states, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Nevada, all states where Trump is right now unpopular despite having past electoral success. The forecasts and polls are not pretty in any of those races right now. So Republicans are counting on the polls being wrong yet again, combined with their moves to redistrict several maps in their favor earlier this year, and also a massive wave of late spending to push their candidates over the top, especially again in those states that Trump won in 2024. The GOP is banking on those being environments that are a lot more favorable to them than some of these purple and blue states. Now on the House side, what are the main races to watch tonight that might be bellwethers? And then how did the redistricting potentially affect the races? Well, we're going to get our first answer to that question very soon. The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern time from Kentucky, which normally is not a very interesting state. It's just all red all the way. This cycle, it actually has what most analysts are looking at as an early bellwether race for the House. Trump previously won Kentucky's 6th congressional district, which is centered around the city of Lexington and its suburbs, by 15 points. But the Cook Political Report now calls it a key bellwether for a blue wave as an open seat in a white suburban district, the exact kind that Trump performed very well in in 2024. So in that first hour, if results start coming in in that Kentucky district and they look good for Democrats, could tell us the way that the night is going to go on the House side. And then at 7 p.m. Eastern, Miami Republican Rep Maria LVR Salazar is defending a seat that Trump also won by 15 points. This one will tell us a lot, potentially about Hispanic voters and how they're faring. Another key demographic that GOP did very well with in 2024, but they'll need to do very well again this race, especially to hold on to House seats in Florida and Texas. Now, with regard to the redistricting efforts more broadly, initially when those maps were redrawn, the experts were saying it would guarantee Republicans an additional 12 to 14 House seats. But the way things currently stand, it does look like a number of those seats may actually go blue and that those efforts could be thwarted and ultimately only net a few extra seats being added. Now, wrapping up with the governor's races, 36 seats are in play. What are the key ones to watch? Yeah, Republicans currently hold 26 governorships to Democrats 24. And as I mentioned before, there are four key states right now the GOP is trying to hold. Georgia Republican Governor Brian Kemp is term limited. And Republican billionaire health care exec Rick Jackson has been trailing Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, by about 10 years. That's about two points in that open race. Bottoms is running pretty far behind incumbent Democrat Senator John Ossoff in his reelection bid in most polls. But most forecasters are leaning towards Bottoms in their final projections. And a big reason is because Ossoff is expected to run up the score in Georgia. The down ballot impact of that on the governor's race could be immense. Then you've got Nevada, which is pretty much a dead heat. Earlier this year, the race did not even look competitive. Republican Governor Joe Lombardo was extremely popular. He was leading by double digits in some polls. But now multiple surveys have the Democratic nominee within the margin of error. One has them tied at 47. In Kansas, Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is term limited. And Republican State Senate President Ty Masterson has led in recent polls. And then Ohio, probably the most closely watched governor's race in the country. Trump-endorsed nominee Vivek Ramaswamy faces former state health director Amy Acton. Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006. But Vivek has not run a smooth campaign. He's running behind Republican Senator John Husted, who was also on the ballot in every single poll. And he's slightly behind Acton despite heavy Republican investment in the state. Trump won by 11 points just a few years ago. Well, all of these races very important. Cabot, remind us, how can people follow our election coverage? Yes, I'll be going live at 6 p.m. Eastern tonight. We'll have Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, Andrew Klavan, Michael Knowles, all the guys on my set from 6 to 8. And then at 8, we're going to the big boy desk. We've got the huge board tracking every single race, every result as it comes in. That will be on from 8 p.m. until we have an idea of where things are going. We're ready to go all night. After months of campaigning, elections will finally be decided by tonight. And one key question hanging over the results is how they will affect President Trump's strategy going forward. Joining us to discuss the president's options, especially if the GOP comes up short, is White House correspondent Mary Margaret Olihan. So before we get to the doomsday, you know, blue wave scenario, where did President Trump spend his final days of campaigning and what should we make of that? Hey, guys. So President Donald Trump has spent the last couple of weeks campaigning all over the United States. He's gone to 29 rallies in person. And last night, he held a bunch of tele-rallies from the White House. In the last two states he was in, that was Iowa and Kansas. Those are states that he won comfortably in 2024. So interesting places to end the campaigning. But across the country, and I went to a couple of these, the message was the same from the president. And that message was, do you want more successes from this administration, two more years of Republicans working for you, working with us, or do you want to vote into office a bunch of extreme and radical Democrats? And that's the message that they've really been pushing across the board, whether it's President Donald Trump or whether it's Vice President J.D. Vance or even Mike Johnson campaigning all over the country, talking about the difference between Republicans and Democrats. And I think it tells you something really important about the Republican strategy because Trump has spent a considerable amount of time on the road. This is not an easy lift for the president. Obviously, he takes Air Force One. He flies private. If I am on the road with him, I get to do the same. But some of these rallies, he's getting back home at 1.30 in the morning and then he's up again at whatever, 8 a.m. in the Oval Office back at work. So it's got to be taking a toll on him. And while legacy media has repeatedly told us that the president doesn't care about the midterms and that it's no skin off his nose whether Republicans do well or not, he's been all over the country telling people, pretend I'm on the ballot. And so that's really the message we've been hearing. Very consistently for the past couple of weeks. Now, President Trump, of course, is very famous for giving nicknames. And it sounds like he already has one queued up for if the GOP takes a big hit. He's calling himself Mr. Vito. Tell us about that. What's he indicating with that nickname? Well, I think that's the president signaling that he is prepared to fight a Democrat Congress. He is prepared to aggressively battle with these Democrats who have honestly gotten into office by campaigning about how horrible they believe he is. And if Democrats take control of the House, they're going to gain subpoena power and control over congressional investigations. And so we're probably going to see some impeachment efforts against the president. There are some Democrats who have kind of wavered and said they're not sure if they want to do that. But we do know that the core of the Democrat Party does want to impeach the president. But the big thing here to remember is that Trump still has the veto power. So they're not going to simply be able to reverse his policies without his signature or the votes to override him. And Trump has said, he's spent a lot of his presidency governing through executive action. So he can continue, you know, pursuing immigration enforcement or other administrative priorities just through the limits of his executive authority. So I think on this point, he's been very straightforward. He will be Mr. Veto if he needs to. If Democrats are in power and they're fighting him on this, he's not going to go down without a fight. And I think that's the Trump that we all know so well and would imagine that he would continue to be. Indeed. Well, we know you have a busy, election day today, but we'll be hearing from you in our election coverage this evening as the results start streaming in. Thanks so much for coming on. Thanks for having me. Thanks for waking up with us. Plus, remember to check out Daily Wire's election hub tonight. You can watch our coverage and watch as the results come in. To enjoy the show ad-free and join our mission, become a member at dailywire.com. We'll be back this evening with more news you need to know.