The PuckPedia Hockey Show Ep. 52 | Tyler Dellow: Devils Analytics, Hurricanes Cup & Carolina’s Contracts

If we think there's an opportunity, and we think it can end well, we will take a swing at it. Now, in that case, we were also aware when we made that trade, we were getting back a player and Taylor who we thought could add some real value to us, we made the first trade. ♪ Two, three, four, let me tell ya Papa Pedius, that's contracts and capsits are there by ya. One stop shop for your hockey information, it's a hockey sensation. So, log on, log on, log on, if you give a plaque, I'm going to Park Pedia, come on. Welcome to another edition of the Park Pedia Hockey Show. Today we're joined by a very special guest, its current assistant general manager of the reigning, defending Stanley Cup champions, Carolina Hurricanes, Tyler Dello, Tyler, how are you doing today? Doing good, how are you? I'm good, thank you for taking the time to talk to us. I'm sure all the Carolina Hurricanes fans are going to want to hear all about the nuance that goes on with this front office being on the cutting edge with led by Eric Tolstki. You've been there now for a couple seasons, but before we get into all that good stuff, I did just want to talk about kind of your start in hockey is very interesting. You actually went to law school, got your law degree, practiced civil litigation in Toronto before kind of working in hockey, and you know, you're one of the pioneers, I would say the hockey analytics movement in terms of starting a website and blogging and going that route. So, just talk to us about like what peak your interest in hockey and how you decide it, you want to be a lawyer one day and then a hockey management executive analytics guy the next day. Well, I grew up playing hockey like most kids in Canada. So, you know, it was always appealing to me. Also, like most kids in Canada, it wasn't good enough to make a playing career of it. So, I needed a fallback. So, law school, I ended up doing that and third year law school is pretty, I don't know the word is, it's in many ways I'm necessary. So, this was the year after the lock out, the second lock out, no 405. And I started, this was about two or three years after money ball come out. And the result was I decided to start a blog that year just to sort of feel some time in law school, largely focused on the oilers and numbers and just sort of thinking about it that way. And fortunately, for me, the oilers were really good that year. So, the end of going to Stanley Cup final in losing to Carolina. And there's many reminders of that around the building, much to my delight. But they lost to Carolina that year. And so, anyway, the blog kind of got a bit of attention, a bit of buzz. Just because it was sort of a new form of media, writing about things from a different perspective. So, it's kind of a cool year for the blog. I figured I'd shut it down once I started practicing law, but practicing law also very boring. So, I kind of kept it going as a sideline and just, it just kind of kept getting bigger and bigger. And every year, there'd be something happened. It was like, oh boy, that's neat. And, you know, after a few years, I was like, you know, maybe I'll see if I can make something happen here. And I kind of, yeah, stop practicing law, work full time on my non-monetized blog. And you gotta, you gotta hear we are. How challenging was it to get all the information that you needed to do your analysis and research? Like, nowadays the data is a lot more prevalent, a lot easier for a lot of these public sites to build. And there's so much now, private data that teams have access to that makes it even, you know, way more complicated in terms of just digesting all this. But, in the early 2000s, it wasn't nearly as prevalent on like a Windows 98 computer. So, I'm curious like how you were able to kind of get all that information to your analysis given the information you were able to get. So, I had an old, yeah, I had a laptop and I basically had some code to scrape the NHL's website. So, I would scrape the NHL's website with some virtual basic code that my brother wrote. And then I just had these enormous files saved on my laptop of data from the league that I would then, you know, largely in Excel go through like I didn't really learn code how to write any code and I still don't really consider myself a coder until 2015. So, yeah, now it was a much different time. It's much easier now when you can just go and I'm going to a site like natural statric and download some CSVs that have a lot of stuff you can play with. So, yeah, it was a, it was really, now, you know, there were advantages too, right? It was much easier to sort of, you know, do something novel because everything was new. But yeah, the data, the data was a little more involved in getting it back then. Yeah, exactly. And like you said, then you kind of dove right headfirst into it and eventually were picked up by the Edmonton Oilers as an analytics consultant for a couple years. So, talk us through just like getting your foot in the door there. Was it a lot of just the public work you were posting just was so nuanced and knew that it was like really kind of cutting edge innovative. And is that kind of how you got that job and for people who are trying to do that now with their public work, like what advice would you have? So, my advice to, you know, I think that's a great question because I get that a lot from people. My advice is really do good stuff and do it in public. And, you know, I guess there's kind of a secondary like, you know, there's a lot of people that have a model that go this players with that, this players with that right now. And that's, you know, that's all, you know, that's important. But I do think there's a bit of a gap right now in terms of, hey, there's this hockey question. What can I do with the data that's available to me to sort of write about a hockey question, which is a different thing. And so I really encourage people and, you know, like even I was at the athletic not to step on your timeline, but, you know, I had people that are going, how did you get this and like do stuff in public. And, you know, the great thing about doing it in public is funny. I've talked to, I hope I can say his name there, but whatever. I've tried to Jeff Merrick about this and he tells people start a podcast, like, you know, if you want to do it and get your reps. And yeah, nobody's listening. But that's when you make all your mistakes. Like when I go back and look at some of the early years by website, there's some good stuff and there's some stuff from like, woof. So, you know, I really, I really think that that is, you know, do work, do it in public. And, you know, like for me, Twitter was a big thing as far as pumping work out there. I apologize, I've lost the rest of your question. No, that's pretty much it. And to your point, like, yeah, you can say Jeff's name. He's a recurring guest on this show. There we go, Jeff Merrick. I've been on his show, hardspin on his show. So we're good pals with Jeff. He's the best. And so I think that is a good point. Like not just like the public work of the writing aspect, but also the podcast and explaining it, breaking it down definitely adds value. Let's talk about the athletic parks. I think that's interesting too, right. So you were an analytics consultant for an NHL team, then you popped over to more of the hockey media side, you're writing these articles, you're really breaking it down from like a national perspective. What was kind of your thought process and like using that to then help like advance your career, because sometimes, you know, people like teams are like, oh, you're either team or your media, not like kind of melding the two. But nowadays it feels like there might be some more kind of synergies between the two. So talk us through like why you decided to make that move. Yeah, there was a couple things. So I went to the oilers to work with Dallas Akins and then he got, you know, unfortunately, it's funny. Nobody remembers we actually a decent start to that year. And it was the 14, 15 oilers. We're just the thin team. And the wrong people got banged up and all of a sudden it was pretty tough. And that just, you know, the year got away from us. And that's, you know, that's unfortunate. But, you know, so Dallas got fired mid December. And I did some work with the management the rest of the way and in my contract expired. And, you know, we went our separate ways. So at that point, I had sort of the benefit of, you know, two good years of experience inside a team. And I understood how they were starting to think about things and what we could do there. And James Myrtle was involved with launching the athletic in Toronto and he said, hey, why don't you come and do this, you know, do this year. And it's funny to your question. Like I do think there's an amazing amount of athletic people, certainly in the NBA side. And I believe on the soccer side, you've kind of wandered back and forth between media and working for teams. And, you know, I've talked to people who've been debating doing it. Like I said to them, like if you go work for a team for a while, even if you don't like it, it only makes you more valuable in the media space because it gives you a perspective that a lot of people just don't have. And so I ended up, you know, it was a great place for me to again, because, you know, you talk about writing and doing it in public. All of a sudden I was writing doing a public on a sports site that kind of quickly became, you know, I'm biased, but the leading, you know, NHL, you know, writing site. And, you know, there was an audience of people in the league that when I was just starting a blog, I ended up with an audience of people in the league, but I had to work pretty hard to get that. Whereas with the athletic, I think people in the league started reading it pretty fairly quickly. And so my stuff was getting in front of people, which was helpful in terms of being able to show, hey, this guy's thinking about things in ways that might be useful to us. Do you think that kind of led into getting your role with the New Jersey Devils, where you were there for five seasons from 2019 to 2024, you know, up to upwards of moving away through the organization, ending up as the SVP of hockey strategy and analytics there through a couple different coaching or genes to talk us through like getting that role. But then also like the work you were kind of able to do, kind of building up your, you know, expertise in working for a hockey organization as this is like your first full time, you know, quote unquote, like full time. So it's yeah, no, it was definitely helpful like one of the things again that doing that does is it shows, you know, hey, you can think, be you can communicate. So, you know, having established that probably helped me. And, you know, I, I, the sixers ownership Josh Harris David. blitzer, I think, are the managing partners. They attest somebody, a guy named Alts Rocker, who is with the Sixers, finding someone to build a group for the Devils, which they also owed. So that kind of got me there. One of the great exciting things about that was they were like, "Look, we want you to build a group and build, you know, really build this out so that it can impact the decisions the organization makes." So we were able to bring in a guy named Mackane, who's probably familiar to a lot of your listeners and Matt and I, I think, complement each other well in terms of skill sets. And, you know, over time, we were able to add some just really spectacular technical people and, you know, guy, you know, people who, you know, people don't know about, but they're really able to build out things that Aggie teams need. So we're talking about software developers and data, data engineers, data scientists. And, you know, I think over the course of five years, we were able to positively impact some decisions for the Devils. And I think when I started there, we were in a bit of a tough spot. And I certainly felt like when we left, the team had, you know, as a result of everybody's efforts, but certainly I felt like the data team made a contribution kind of progressed to a point where I do think they are, you know, they're going to be a dangerous team for a long time. Exactly. And it's, it's tough, you know, you help build a team. Now you're going to be competing with in the same division year over year. So it's just ironic sometimes how that works out. But one question I did want to ask you about the Devils, and we had, I met you at Sloan the sports analytics conference a couple years ago. And you had mentioned an interesting point on your panel about Lindy Ruff and how, you know, he's not necessarily viewed as this data driven forward thinking head coach, right? He's, he's old school, he's been in the lead, you know, for like multiple decades at this point. But he came up to you at one point and was asking about like the expected goals model and just how he was seeing something different. He wanted to understand how that the goal was calculated with that. And like long story short, he ended up, I think he said, maybe making some minor tweaks to the model because of the insight that he gave you. So kind of walk us through just obviously the data side of it and just understanding that, you know, sometimes hockey is such a complex sport that sometimes there's some, there's context to be added that maybe you're able to incorporate in your models from scouting, from coaching, from people who like played the game that you wouldn't necessarily think about right away as you're building these models on like the data side of it. Yeah. So I'll just back up a second. Like one of the things I've really enjoyed in my career is the opportunity to work with coaches because they're watching sort of every second of every game that the team plays. And so, you know, I do find, you know, that you get good pushback and good insight from them. And I've been lucky to work with, you know, I don't want to forget anybody, but Dallas Aacons, Todd Nelson, Todd McClellan. I'm not going to do the names because I'll forget somebody. There's been a lot, but you know, there's been a bunch of them who, you know, I've certainly learned from and, you know, they really do have a great perspective on the game because they see all the trees. And this one is really interesting. So we had built and expected goals model. I say we, I mean, Matt, Matt Kane had built and expected goals model in New Jersey. And what you're working with is a data set or at that time what you're working with really is a data set that has maybe 4,000 play-by-play events again. So if you go to NHL.com and look at their play-by-play file, they'll be like 300. And this has like 4,000. So it's like 10, 11, 12 times as many. And you're then trying to identify from that data things that make it more likely or less likely that a shot goes in the net. And yeah, sometimes you will, you know, you will miss something. Or sometimes, you know, the data will in some circumstances maybe lead you astray. And, you know, Lindy to his immense credit. And, you know, like, you know, you talk about, like, you know, Lindy helped make us better. And we think we were able to help make the team better. So like, you know, like, you know, some of your, I think, and I think this is true of any good organization. Like, you're all trying to make each other better, which makes the outcome better. And Lindy identified something and he was right. And, you know, took it to Matt. And we, yeah, we didn't, we didn't end up tweaking it. But, you know, we wouldn't have been able to do that without a coach who was, you know, keeping an eye on what we were doing and, you know, giving us some feedback that was able to make us better. So, yeah, I think the best organizations, you know, that's the way you hope to function. Yeah, definitely. And like, the analytics piece is so interesting because there's so many of, like, areas of hockey it could touch, right? From, like, the free agency trade acquisition to the NHL draft to coaching to sports science, like, there's so many different areas that it can all impact. And I've seen a couple teams now add like a coaching analytics kind of role where it's like, some teams might be doing this, but they're not publicly listing that position where other other teams have, like, now fully listed that position. And do you think that there's a lot of edge that could be happened, like, game by game. And you mentioned talking to all these coaches. That's what you enjoy the most. Do you think that more teams are going to kind of take that on, like, from the coaching side of things, every team is doing pre scout post scout with data, but maybe more like in game adjustments and things of that nature. In game adjustments I think a little more difficult right now, just because of the speed with which things happen. And, you know, the speed with which data flows. But I have no doubt that in time that will come to pass. I think you're right. Like, I know in a Jersey, pardon me. Sorry, there's a guy named Jared Lunsford who's there. And Jared started with us five or six years ago and kind of quickly made the nice stuff sort of his area of specialty. And, you know, he's now advanced to the point where I believe he's, you know, he's, I guess I don't know specifically what they're doing, but I know his title now is like coaching specific. And so I assume he's in there. So yeah, no, I do think it, you know, it depends on what the coach is comfortable with too. Like ultimately, you know, the point of this is to win games. And, you know, you need a coach who's like, yeah, I think this, you know, works with my process. But if it does, and absolutely, yeah, I think you can add value. I think we can really add to is there's just there's a lot of discussions that go on. And what you're really just doing is adding, and I, you know, I have the benefit of knowing this from a time of Edmonton working with Dallas and his staff. But you're adding another perspective to those discussions who can maybe go, hey, what about this or what about that? And, you know, I think that can, you know, we're all just trying to do things a little bit better and that can help. Definitely. And I think part of it, too, is the buy in from either the management group or the ownership, like just talking throughout the league at different organizations, some teams have more buy in than others. And, you know, you could have this great information, it's great data. But if you're not able to one communicate it or to get the buy in from the people who are making those decisions, then it almost becomes a move point. Yeah, no, that's, that's, yeah, I know that's a real challenge for data groups. I think is how do I communicate? And, you know, you know, one thing that we all probably have to learn is less is more sometimes you're dealing people who are outside or new to it. And, you know, how do you find routes to bring people into using the data? And it's interesting, a, like, one thing that we did in New Jersey that I thought was, you know, really worked well was, we built an internal analytics site and then just basically turned a lucid whole organization. And what you find are sort of, you'll be surprised to learn, oh, this person would have been a data person if you kind of come up our route because all of a sudden you've got somebody else who isn't part of your team, but who's looking at it and asking questions. And, you know, that's like beta testing it for you. Well, and not just that, but he's sort of like, you know, there's so much data and so many options available to hockey team. It's hard to, you know, do them all. And the more people you have who are sort of throwing an eye on this and asking, you know, taking it seriously and asking intelligent questions, I think the better you will be. And, you know, so in that sense, yeah, like just buy in or a willingness, just to even have an openness to it, which, you know, candidly New Jersey was pretty good. Exactly. And then so then you did five years or so in New Jersey. And then you ended up going to Carolina promotion assistant general manager over the last couple seasons, which culminated last year in a Stanley Cup championship with the management group led by Eric Tolsky, rocket scientist, if you will. But a guy who's really also on the cutting edge of the analytics movement, just listening to some people in his organization on that staff, just the different backgrounds that they come from. But let's talk about just like the decision to make that move for you and why you thought this was the right fit. And then like what kind of different responsibilities maybe you had now, you know, at first time being in AGM in the national hockey league. Yeah, it was, it was, it was funny. Like, you know, I, I think it was just, it was, it was a good time to make a move. Eric got that job. And I think Eric got the job on late June. And, you know, he needed to replace himself. Sort of in the data role. And then he also needed somebody with some legal competencies. So I kind of managed to tick two boxes, you know, and I'm a believer that, you know, it's good to, you know, change can be hard, but it's also good as far as growing personally and getting new opportunities. And so that was a chance to go work with, you know, a bunch of people I was excited to work with, you know, to have an opportunity to work with, you know, starting with Tom, but with Eric, who I'd known for many years, Darren York was the associate GM there runs the wolves. Ultimately Chris Abbott, who joined us a little later on, so people I didn't know. So it's a good chance for me to go work and learn some more in a different situation. And then to add these sort of legal slash CBA responsibilities to my portfolio was a bit of a new thing as well. So it was just kind of a good opportunity. And it was, you know, it just seemed like the right time. And obviously, no complaints. Yeah, and speaking of the CBA aspects of it, the Carolina Hurricanes have a few interesting contracts, I would say on their book. So I'd love to just talk through a couple of them. I want to start first with the Taylor Hall contract. I don't think I've seen this across the National Hockey League where his full no move clause becomes a 10 team no trade clause next season. If he doesn't get 35 points this year. So I think it's, it's an interesting because it benefits both sides, right? If Taylor Hall does well this year and gets over 35 points, you're probably not going to want to move him anyway. But I'm just curious like why you guys were kind of the first team to really kind of do maybe performance lead in trade clause protections. I think it's just really interesting. And I think it's something that I'm surprised more teams haven't like taking a look at once, you guys made that move. - So my recollection is that Carrie Lettenin had one many, many years ago, 'cause I think when we phoned the league, they were sort of thinking about it and then they were like, oh yeah, Carrie Lettenin had one. That's my recollection. So, you know, as to why, you know, I don't know why does anybody do anything? I don't know. I think for us, it was just really a, you know, we try to be creative when we're solving problems and go, hey, how can we make this deal as good as it can possibly be for everybody? And, you know, you worry with, you know, you know, I'm just trying to get what out of phrase this. For a team like us, you want to make sure that you're, you know, maintain flexibility. And, you know, I think that, if you look at that clause, what that provides is, you know, if Taylor's performing at or around the level, he was at when we got him, he's protected all the way through. And, if there's a big change, we've got some protection. So, it's kind of a way to divide things up that kind of gets everybody more of what they would like. It's probably the best way to put it. And, I think we as an organization try to be creative in, you know, finding solutions that can get everybody what they need. And, you know, the better you are doing that, the more likely you are to get a given player. And, you know, Taylor's been a hell of a player for us ever since. And, you know, so I'm glad we were able to figure that out. - Exactly, a couple of stops too. Like, he was obviously an Edmonton when you were there too. And, I think he had left New Jersey, but another organization he was with that you also were with. - No, we were in New Jersey together too. - Oh, okay, even better. - Okay. - Yeah. - Yeah. And so, also like other, more interesting deals you have is, you guys did some deferred salary deals as well. So Seth Jarvis has 15.67 million in deferred money. Jackson Blake has 15.9 million dollars. Jacob Slaven has $4.55 million deferred. Since outlawed now in the CVA, no longer able to do that, but it brings the cap hit down a little bit with the net present value of money calculation. Just, why don't you talk us through? I mean, obviously it was a big topic in the major league baseball with the Shohei Otani deal and some of these other deals. So, I guess it was that kind of the precipice of like, oh, we saw this working at the MLB. Maybe we'll bring this over to the National Hockey League. And then it can help us in the short term with the AAV keeping those lower, but obviously needing ownership buy into a breed of that. - Yeah. - So that largely predates me as far as those contracts. I think right after I started, Eric said, okay, I need you to write a contract for Seth Jarvis and it has all these, I don't know what it is. So, you know, that largely predated me. I just think organizationally, there is a commitment to, you know, and, you know, Tom does this very well. All of us, I think, you know, this is sort of a trait that we have, but why not this, why not this, why not this? And, you know, in that case, you know, somebody read the CBA very closely and figured some things out and came up with a tool that enabled us to lower capits. And, you know, ultimately this league is, you know, you're trying to get, you know, 1.3x value out of a roster where x is the salary cap, right? And so if you can find ways to do that a little bit here, a little bit there, a little bit here, it adds up and, you know, hopefully it puts you in a position to do what we did last year. - Yeah, exactly. And speaking of that, with the rising salary cap and just how teams are now managing it, we saw kind of a crazy summer where contracts went through the roof at like kind of a crazy rate, but given the rise in the future salary cap, these deals more, maybe more have sticker shock than like in terms of bad value deals. But what kind of competitive advantage do you believe it has to have these good players lock down longer term? Given like Carolina's viewed as one of the teams that did a really good job of that and you have your core lock down for the next few seasons, at reasonable numbers and just how you think that other teams are gonna try to use the salary cap, moving forward, acquiring talent in the national hockey league is difficult sometimes, especially when a lot of teams have salary cap space to do so. - Yeah, I, you know, I don't know where I don't know that I would speculate on what other teams would do, that's their business. And, you know, I don't want to, to guess, you know, I just obviously, you know, I think for us, we're just fortunate we'll be in a position where we have the financial flexibility, right? Not everybody does, particularly when you've had a good team. And we're fortunate that we will be in a position where we have that flexibility for the next few years, which, which not everybody does. And over time that will, you know, that will equalize. But, yeah, for now, I think we're just, you know, those contracts and, you know, we, you know, it's a credit to the players who've done so well under them. But, you know, it's, you know, we took risks when we did those contracts as well. Not everything works out. You know, we're just, we're just, I guess, fortunate we're in a good spot now. - Exactly, you don't see too many Stanley Cup contenders having the combination of salary cap space, strong prospects, and a lot of draft capital at their disposal. So it is interesting when you get to all three of those on one team who just won the Stanley Cup. Why don't you talk us through just like, you're, you're now in the front office, you know, over seven seasons between New Jersey and Carolina here. Just kind of, what were your expectations as you kind of joined the front office? And like, is that what the reality is? There are a lot of things that maybe you didn't think you'd have to manage and navigate that you do. Maybe some tax that you didn't realize would fall under. Your play just walk us through like, as you were kind of building this career online with the blogging, and now you've actually kind of made it successful in the National Hockey League, how a front office role has been for you. - I think certainly, you know, as you rise in a front office, like I, you know, I have my areas of responsibility, but I'm also a little bit of a jack of all trades. You know, if we have sort of complicated messes, sometimes I get involved with them and trying to sort them out. And that's not really on high stuff, but you actually remember that this is a business in addition to being a, you know, a sport. And so there's all sorts of, you know, sometimes we have dealing to the government we gotta deal with, we have immigration dealing through the deal with, we have partners. So there's a lot of just other things, like they go into it beyond, beyond just, oh, should we get this player or that player? Or is this player doing good or that player doing good? And, you know, I'm sometimes surprised how much time the other stuff eats up. You know, I've heard of a GM, or I won't say his names, I don't want to be said this publicly, but his line was, you know, once he became a GM, and he realized he wasn't really there to scout anymore. And, you know, at an AGM level, there's probably a lesser version of that and just that there's more stuff you have to deal with. I think I was probably, you know, I've worked for two organizations in which ownership is probably more involved than the norm in the NHL. And that's actually, I think, we've got a tremendous blessing for me because you're dealing with people who, you know, have had tremendous success in, you know, different aspects of the business world. And you're getting the benefit of that perspective, but there has been more dealing with ownership than I would have anticipated, you know, 10 years ago when I got into this. But I suspect that's probably going to increase as time goes along for most teams, just because there's, you know, the teams are worth more and there's more money involved. So you're going to get, you know, ownership wanting, you know, to know, understand, to better understand, you know, what you're doing and why it's working or not. Yeah, exactly. A couple of final questions here. I would love to touch on just that whole Miko Rantin and situation that happened. I believe that was probably your first year there where you guys made a big splash and traded for him, you know, obviously sending Martin H's and Jack Jury the other way with a couple of other draft picks, getting Taylor Hall in like a three team deal. But then the situation didn't work out and you were able to then flip him to the Dallas stars who then signed him to an extension, but getting back Logan, Stan Cove and some conditional first round picks. So it was kind of like just very interesting from a fans perspective knowing how you guys were able to kind of make the best out of that situation. And obviously paid dividends, given the Stanley Cup run last year in that second line with Jackson Blake Taylor Hall, Logan, San Cove and what they did for you guys. So just talk us through like how is a management group? You kind of were able to manage that situation. You don't necessarily see that in the national hockey league every day. Yeah, so I think there's a couple of things there. Like one thing I think is an organization we try not to be afraid. And I think you see it like, and it's funny as it flows through the entire organization. Like if you watch us play, there's a lot of pressure. And we're not afraid to step up. And if we get beat, we get beat. But we have kind of that belief in terms of how we play on the ice. I think we try and do that as a management group as well in terms of we don't want to take insane risks, but at the same time, if we think there's an opportunity and we think it can end well, we will take a swing at it. And now in that case, we were also aware when we made that trade, we were getting back a player and Taylor who we thought could add some real value to us. We made the first trade, which helped even knowing that Miko may ultimately choose not to stay with us. And it's kind of funny, we just, it's unfortunate. Like everybody says, oh, it didn't work. He actually, there's a lot of chances when he played. It's just the puck didn't go in. So he ultimately decided he'd be more comfortable somewhere else than I don't think there's any organization. We're like, hey, that's your right. And we're grateful he worked with us to get something back for it to get a fair return for him. So I think really just the big thing there is just it's so hard to get these superstar players. And if you have a chance and you think you've got a real chance to sign them, you kind of have to do it. Or at least, you have to take a really strong look at it. And, you know, And one thing I guess we did do is we didn't sort of take the short-term view of while this might diminish our chances this year. We kind of took the longer-term view and it didn't mention it, but one of the first round picks we got back was involved in the dealer, pardon me of the deal for Teandre Miller. So, you know, when you look at that team last year that won the Stanley Cup, there's, you know, three pretty critical pieces who, you know, we acquired as part of that sequence of transactions. So, you know, really, I think it's just, for us, it was about, you know, it's so hard to get a player like this. You have to take an opportunity. And if we can't make it work out, we'll have the discipline to, you know, make the best deal we can if it's good enough. And it was, and yeah, it worked out really well. Yeah, definitely. You never know how it's going to work out, but you guys definitely made the most of it. And I think people, fans are very, you know, happy that there are teams who are willing to do those kind of moves and take those risks. And, you know, it's high risk, high reward, like you mentioned here. One final question here, Tyler, for you wrap up and thank you so much for taking the time to chat with me today. I want to talk just where you think the future of analytics and hockey will be obviously when you started in 2004, it was a shell of what it is now. And it's grown so much and it's starting to get talked about, you know, in the mainstream on broadcasts on these athletic articles, like you mentioned. But now moving forward and as maybe the public gets access to more and more of the private data, like maybe there's a world where they get more access to the data they have now. Is where do you think either the analytics will be in the mainstream or like where you think teams will still be able to find edges knowing there's a lot of teams now in like arms race trying to build and get as much as they can. Yeah, that's a great question. I do think we'll see more of it in the public realm. And I'm surprised, for example, that there isn't sort of if you watch British British soccer, they'll put XG in the broadcast. And I'm surprised that and it may just be that there isn't sort of a model that's public that is trusted enough yet. And you know, but I'm surprised to export logic partners with a lot of these organizations. I'm surprised the sport logic, you know, isn't feeding them a live XG model. You know, it may be something the legal ultimately does. You know, like the thing is, you know, and Elliot Friedman's made this point in, you know, Lothoy M to admit that he sometimes makes good points like not everybody wants to some people just want to watch the game, right. Yeah. And so, you know, they don't necessarily want to feel like they're in math class. So, you know, I think that to the extent that the analytic stuff can provide, you know, good insights into watching the game, people will be really interested in it. And it will probably continue to pop up in broadcasts like, I love stuff that sort of tells me like how a team plays or how a team doesn't play. Like I always find it really neat when I'm looking at something. I'm like, wow, like this, you know, this line is doing this and nobody's really talking about it because this information isn't out there or this team plays does this completely differently than everybody else. I think stuff like that is great and it's great talking points and it doesn't have to really be a math thing for people. So, I think in that sense, there's likely going to be a lot more publicly. But I do think there is sort of a natural end to it just because, you know, ultimately that has to be, you know, in service of telling the story of the game or the season to the viewer or the reader. On the team side, I am pretty bullish that it's going to continue to grow. Like if you look even back to when I started with the Devils, you know, teams have continued to incorporate this. I think there's, you know, increasingly you're seeing teams go out and try and find general managers who have a background in it or, you know, like I don't know, yeah, probably when I started the Devils, I don't think there was an AGM who was, there was, I guess Kyle Dubas who had an analytics type background. But there weren't really AGMs even who has sort of the hard analytics background and that now is pretty common around the league. So, you know, I don't know, in every other sport, you know, you've seen sort of a commitment to, you know, everybody wants to make the best decisions possible. And if you think that, you know, this can help you do it, you'd have to think it will just continue to grow. Yeah, definitely good insight there. Well, Tyler, thank you so much for the time today. Best of luck with the season, Carolina Hurricanes navigating some injuries right now, but guys, she'll be back in the line up soon off to a good start. So, hopefully it continues and wish you and the rest of the team all the success moving forward. Thanks so much. I appreciate the time today Keith. All the best. We're back on the puck, Pedia Hockey show where I am now joined with founder Hart Levine. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. You're really happy that, you know, we have an end to the hella book saga. We have an end to the kitchen. We got a couple more to go. That excitement is covering up for 1045, barely game last night. So, you know, it's a mixed bag for me today. Yeah, and we thank Tyler Della for coming on and joining us on the puck, Pedia Hockey show really insightful interview. Good, like backstory to write. He started blogging with his website MC79Hockey.com. And then he obviously was a consultant for the Oilers. Then he went back to the athletic wrote some interesting analytics, kind of focused pieces before joining the New Jersey Devils and the Carolina Hurricanes and just interesting, just how they manage air salary cap now, the reigning cup champions with some deferred money, Taylor Halls. I think the most interesting part of that interview is talking about Taylor Halls like performance based, no movement clause where if he doesn't get 35 points this year, his full no move becomes a 10 team, no trade list. So I think stuff like that's interesting also stan coven's modified no trade clause expires 15 days before the trade deadline of 2034. So a little bit of time for that one, but I just think that they're on the forefront of kind of thinking and maximizing the CVA. I think it just lends nicely into both topics that we want to talk about today, because like you mentioned, the Carolina Hurricanes, Alexander and occasion, saga is over for right now. So we'll talk about that first before we finish up with our ass, the capologist segment. So Alexander Keaton signed a one year, $3 million, AAV contract to end this holdout or unrestricted free agent, if you will, and now he will be joining the team is with Carolina Hurricanes and he set for this upcoming season. I think Kevin Weeks had posted I think he left out a minor detail, but it's the most on a one year deal for a 10 to see in national hockey league history and just hard just get me your thoughts here on just like why you think it took so long, I know he had changed agents to now he's represented by Paul the a fanace and just any nuance from the salary cap as to what really caught your eye with this deal. Yeah, I mean, he, you know, in the summer or the leading up to the draft, I mean, there was certainly a lot of trade talks, there was deals where he was there was a trade agreed to but that he didn't work out a contract with the new team and vice versa, there were teams where I think he because this agent had permission. Talk to teams where I think they probably could have worked out a deal for a contract, but then Carolina couldn't get there on the trade return so you know and like some of these things go and players want to get traded and it doesn't happen for a while they change agents so he he recently switched to Paul the a fanace works with a lot of Russian players. I think it's just a realization of like hey, this is this is where we are right now and this wasn't getting resolved as a he's not a true RFA he was what's called a 10 to see meaning he was on offer, she eligible he also and there wasn't a December first deadline so if you didn't he could sign after December first and still play, which sounds like positive, but I think it's actually negative because it didn't have that deadline to force some action or force a movement and you could really see a way where this would just drag out that's not going to help anybody. So I think in this case it makes a lot of sense to a one year deal it's certainly way way less money than he was like looking for or expecting I think these multi or deals you know the cap it was closer to double digits or in the double digits so but I you have to just look at like you had zero leverage right now like the least leverage a player could possibly have in the CBA and because of his age when he signed his entry level deal he actually only needs two years of seasons where he had plays 10 games where he then has arbitration rates so he's going to go from the least kind of leverage. Some kind of leverage player to a player that next year he'll be eligible for an offer sheet and he can be arbitration eligible so that's basically as much leverage as a player can have other than unrestricted for agency so I think things change the pendulum will swing a little bit Caroline is making a you know decision that they're certainly they squeezed them like a lemon this time kind of for a really good deal i'm. I'm really very surprised if that's going to repair the relationship and make him and a long term cane but it potentially is a win win because now you know coming after this season maybe they can trade them and it can all be worked out or maybe a team is willing to trade for him even without a new contract because at least again he's arbitration eligible that's another way to force some some decision into contract so I mean I think it's you know making the best out of a kind of a tricky situation. Yeah and it's all base salary just a one year three million dollar deal and hard if he had signed a longer term deal two three four seasons is at the same situation with Evan sin where his cap it will be more in the first year and reduced in those later years well because he's not technically an RFA that that formula or that cap hit adjustment would not apply. If he did not have signing bonuses in the first year we've never seen this before we're a player attend to see player signs mid season multi or deal signing bonuses in the first year so we don't know 100% but the people I've spoken to run the league expected that where they're their interpretation would be if he had signed a multi or deal with a signing bonus in the first year then there would have been an adjustment because any player that signs. A deal mid season that has a signing bonus there is a cap hit adjustment we saw that we've seen that in past contracts so far this season so. So, but in this case, he did an immediate simple one year, three million, no adjustment. Yeah, and yeah, like you said, 2.88% of the salary cap may be overplayed the hand a little bit. Like you mentioned, some of these numbers floating around on what he was looking for was upwards of $78 million A.V. on a longer term deal. But like you said, now the pendulum swings a bit more in the player's direction. He has leverage next off season. Could get a offer sheet, could be arbitration eligible once he plays those 10 games. And, you know, maybe Carolina is totally fine with the compensation they would get on an offer sheet. If you were to get offered sheet of next off season, we'll see what those A.V. tiers are. They're always adjusted every off season. So yeah, it'll be interesting to see it solves the situation for now. And then it just kicks the can down the road to next off season. That's right. Yeah. And from the player's perspective, like if you're not getting a deal that you like, I mean, you can live with it on a one year deal or a really short term deal, right? Because like, let's say he thought he was an $8 million player. Carolina was thinking, you know, he was seven on a four, five year deal. You know, that's a lot of money over that contract. So now you sign a one year, three million dollar deal next year, you know, with the cap going up another year, he, you know, maybe he's a nine or 10 million dollar player. So he should make up like a chunk of that money. And again, if you're not going to be happy with your contract, at least not be happy for like one year instead of, you know, we've had seen players that got squeezed sign long term deal, so. And then they're not happy for a long time. Like I think, yeah, you know, if you're going to take your medicine, do it short one year deal and then regroup. Yeah, especially with the rising cap, all he can do is play well and rebuild his market value. And that's what I'll probably look to do on a team that is positioned to make a nice long playoff run yet again. So it'll be good exposure for him and a good club to play for. But like he said, we'll see what happens next off season. Well, and the episode here, heart with our ask the cap,ologist question, which is presented by our presenting sponsor hard rock Ontario's newest sports book app, the hard rock name you know with a top rated app and thousands of five star reviews, a simple sports book app that shows you trending stats, parlays and insights for your favorite team. That's hard rock bet now live in Ontario, role with us. So like you mentioned, heart, there was I think a big trade that happened on Friday. I'm not exactly sure, but I heard that Connor hella buck is now a New Jersey devil. He was traded to the devils in exchange for Dawson Mercer, Nick Buchstead, Nico Dawes, Alexander C'mon, a 2029 second round pick and a 2027 seventh round pick. So the devils, the devils add at 1.65 million in net annual cap hit. But just let's talk about the trade and then the salary cap implications too. I know like we beat this over a drum. I've talked about this on a couple shows now just the trade for the devils. I think it was a good deal. And then we obviously talked to Sonny at his press conference on Saturday. He gave an incredible answer. If you go to my twitter page, it's pinned on top, made the rounds really good. Just insightful, insightful stuff. But I think the interesting nuance and the puck pd has been on it. And we didn't even know this. I knew you knew there was going to be some sort of reduction, but no one knew the exact calculation. And you had actually checked in and confirmed it with the devils PR. But basically Connor hella buck's cap hit for this season is 8.09 eight million dollars. It was reduced because he was suspended by the Winnipeg jets, which is within the CBA. But because of that, he has a reduced cap hit for this season. But because of that reduced cap hit, devils were able to fit him on their current roster without making an additional move. They were basically once they shipped out all those players. They had 8.2 million in space. And he took up 8.1. So now they're at the time, I think it was 103,000, but because of how the salary cap accrues are now at 119,000 in current cap space. So hard talk us through just this move in the salary cap nuance and just like what your general thoughts on the deal were. Yeah. So like in terms of the salary cap nuance. So yeah, it is a it's a very uncommon situation where a player, you know, this is camp without permission, has a suspension. And that carries into the season. The last one that I could think of that was similar was Dustin Bufflin. And I went back through my notes and texts and actually like this section of the CBA, you know, 15.13 for those following at home. I found that in my text from all those years ago where we're trying to figure out what that would look like and how to apply that that suspension and cap hit reduction. But in his case, it never mattered because he never came back and never played again. So, you know, I had to. And it's great that Bufflin's the example. He's there. He just read. He just remade his appearance for the first time. And who knows how long people have seen Bufflin. I know. It's funny timing. So yeah, there's a provision in the CBA that if a player misses training camp without permission, doesn't report. They have a wage, basically a wage deduction. And then there's using that same formula, there'd be a cap hit reduction. So that's separate from the, you know, he's not getting paid in season where he was suspended. That's, you know, you could that website that was out there. Hellabuck, you could see that, which is his seven and a half million dollar salary, you know, number of DC missed. But that there's a different formula for missing games and in the train or missing days in the training camp without permission. So that has to get applied to his cap hit and his pocketbook as well. And so yeah, that brought his cap hit for just this season because this is the season where he missed training camp to just under 8.1 million. And as you pointed out, that made it fit seamlessly. And I'm sure the devil's like knew this. And that's why, you know, those pieces that were included were like, you know, a Bukestad and maybe even Dawes, depending on how you see his value. So I think to make the cap picture work. But it's interesting that yeah, he got hit pretty hard here at Hellabuck to get to New Jersey. So you hope it, you know, worthwhile for him. And from the trade perspective, you know, I agree with kind of the common takes as, and I wrote about this in the newsletter, the puck drop that came out on the weekend too, is that the return does feel light. I mean, if you think about this as a guy that won the heart trophy, you know, multiple time, Besnah, you know, certainly the playoff resume isn't great, but one, you know, the gold medal at the Olympics. And you look at the trade return, like, you know, the most recent goalies that were traded for first round picks were Asterov, you know, and Kosa, right? Asterov was a first and a former first. Kosa was, was a first, you know, obviously, who would you rather have a net hellabuck or those two relatively unproven guys? And in this case, they got, you know, come on, is it command, come on? Basically, I've heard about it. You know, yeah, guys, you call them first and Mercer, you know, it's basically a second line player. So, you know, it's a, it's a little bit more than what those other guys got, but the gap between the trade compensation is a lot, you know, smaller than the gap between, you know, Ascarov and hella buck, right? So from that perspective, for New Jersey, yeah, you might as well take a swing and see how it works out. Yeah, and in a rising salary cap world, like having hella buck on a $8.5 million cap hit for the next five seasons, including this season, doesn't feel that outrageous given some of these contracts that were sent out in this off season. And the devils are basically still in a position where they have assets, right? They didn't part with either of their first round picks this year. They still have first round pick in 28 and 29 and a second round pick in 2027. So they have enough draft capital to make all their moves. The, the part that they don't have right now is the salary cap space, right? Like I mentioned, 119K in current cap space. They are only carrying 12 forwards too. So if a forward gets injured, like they can't just put another forward on IR and call up a player, they need the cap space to make it work and they're carrying seven defensemen and they are carrying that third gold tender and remy porier. But Stefan Nason would be the first guy based on talent who they would call up. They would need an additional, like what they would need 1.225 million dollars in space to accommodate him. And by putting porier on waivers, that wouldn't get the job done in itself. So there is some, some cap stuff that they will have to work out moving forward. But at the same time, like, like Sonny said, if you're able to add a gold tender on a reasonable cap it with a large sample size of excellent results, you do it. You don't think twice about it. And so I think that was kind of the decision that the devil's made. And the fun part about it too is it also blocks Carolina, who seemed to be a pretty high bidder in getting Connor Hellerbuck as well. So that only are you getting him for your own team, but you're blocking a division rival who is going to be your division rival for the foreseeable future from getting this player too. So I think that's a fun little nuance. And the fact that gold tenders, right? A lot of these analytics people are talking about how you don't want to invest a lot of money in the gold tending position, yet the two GMs who are most in on this were the Carolina Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils who are very analytics driven. And I think it goes to show the unpredictability of like the middle tier of gold tenders and, you know, how the talent distribution at the top end is better. So I think that is part of it as well. But yeah, I think it just kind of took everyone by surprise that the Devils were the team that kind out were the ones that got this. Yeah, and you wonder like the other teams that were in the mix, like, could they not come up with a slightly better package? Like, you know, and maybe Winnipeg just sounded like Carolina could, right? They just didn't want to. Yeah. And those young forwards like a Jackson. Well, in fairness, though, like those players are, I think, quite a bit better than Dawson Mercer, right? So, but in terms of like players that were available, like obviously Winnipeg was like Dawson Mercer, you know, and he's young, but he's been pretty consistently like 20 goals around 50 point. And he's played every single game like to start his career. I think that has some value in it and of itself to 421 consecutive games to start his NHL career. And from the Winnipeg side, like, yeah, the return feels underwhelming. They got like quantity maybe over the quality, right? But, you know, as we talked about, like you look at the historical goalie trades, like, there just isn't a precedent for a really big piece is moving for a goalie. And so, you know, this was the one of all the situations that were outstanding. Like, this one seemed the hardest to resolve because like the team felt like they needed to get like this really big return. But the market, you know, shows that there just isn't that big of a price paid for a goalie. And so, like, how would that gap ever get bridged where it's like, I think Larkin is just like, You know, there's a deal out there somewhere, you know, I think it's more Detroit, like just deciding which one to go with or team increasing the offer a little, you know, Edminson, whether that's an offer sheet or a trade or contract, like do you see a path? The hellbic one, like if you asked me a week ago, I would have said that's the one I could see it maybe going a long time because I just don't see how that gap can get bridged. But, you know, credit to both sides, I guess, and that's why I say like, you could criticize you want to pay that they didn't get a lot more, but I just don't see like how they could get more ever and as time went on, you're more and more concerned that he's out of shape or not like not out of shape in terms of like, you know, us, but like out of shape in terms of NHL game shape, and it's going to take longer and you worry more about like, you know, the precedent of players that come in mid season and they're having a down year. So I think they had to take their bet, the best offer that was available like around this time and they did. So I think you can credit them for that, but also still feel like, hey, that's not, you know, they want to, they want to pieces for now really the only piece that's on the roster for the season is Mercer, who again will help, but I don't think he's as tall as two to some extent. Yeah, but I mean, that he's maybe the third goalie now, right? So yeah, but I also feel like I'm taking crazy pills a little bit when everyone's like, I can't believe Winnipeg didn't get a first round pick. Like Alex command was just taken in the first round 12th, 12th overall last year. Like if the doubles gave them their own first round pick or Vegas's first round pick this year instead of command, it's going to be in the 20s and I think command you want the guy that is already matured for an extra six months, right? Yeah. I agree with you. He's closer to the NHL than any of these guys that are probably going to get drafted as well. And our guy Jason Buchlo was really high on him leading up into the NHL draft. So I think that is that is probably the maker break piece for Winnipeg to see if they really won the steals if command could end up being, you know, a top six center in the national hall. It's just that like, you know, Mercer is a second line player. Buchlo reads command as a future second line center. So they got basically like, you know, got in the future two second line players and then I think Buch said it obviously didn't really have any value. Dawes I think is a second or third goal. So in a second round pick, I just wonder like instead of the bag of stuff, could they have gone and gotten something that's like one really good asset, right? Like one, could they've got one first line player or one route like a prospect that could be a first line, first pairing kind of needle mover, because I do find that like in these deals where it's quantity for what a bigger name player, the quantity, it's hard for it to hit, right? Like it doesn't know. You look back to the, even just like the J.J. Praterka trade for Don and Kesslering. Like at the time, it kind of seemed like Kesslering was a bigger name. It turned out it was Don, but that was like two pretty good pieces, right? And so you do have like, okay, maybe one hits one doesn't. Like I think Buffalo would be pretty happy now with Don, but it seems like when it's like a big basket of things, like the team is down the road, it kind of becomes underwhelming. Then I have one final question for you here, Hart, before we wrap it up. So because the Devils ended up trading Nick Buchstead, they exited LTIR. So now they are not in LTIR, they are curing cap space daily. If they needed to go back into LTIR, they would need to fully reset their LTIR pool and if they wanted to do the silly of maneuver again, they would need to then bring him back up and make all that work. Yeah, so like any team, once the, it's like the party, the last guy has to turn the lights off when he leaves. Once the last guy leaves LTIR, the pool is wipe clean and that's over. And if you want to use LTIR again, you have to reset it, the pool. So that's the same as if a player that's on LTIR gets activated and joins the lineup. Or in this case, the player on LTIR gets traded. He's off the, he's off their LTIR. They currently have no other players on LTIR. I mean, I guess they could have potentially put someone like Shane McCasey, you know, could have, could be on LTIR if they wanted to keep their capture, but you know, that's not going to give them much value because he's only curing a $70,000 cap it. Yeah, exactly. But cool, that is all the time we have for you. Make sure you are subscribed to the YouTube page. We will be live next week with another cap central. We will see if any of the other moves shake out with a Larkin or an Edvinson or maybe another trade, another signing. But then he tells a lot of action so far season is still young, about 10 to 11 games into the season, but a lot going on, a lot of good stuff, a lot of salary cap stuff. And you know, make sure you're subscribed to the puck drop newsletter as well that drops in your inbox every Saturday morning at 7 a.m. Eastern standards. So heart, any final words here? The Detroit's on the clock now. We got two of those situations resolved. It's up to Detroit now to keep things going. Detroit's on the clock. Well, thank you for all the time and make sure you are subscribed and follow along on social media.