The Primer: Week 5 Fantasy Football Lineup Advice (Ep. 2250)

This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. The Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast is brought to you by Grainger. If you're an operations manager at a manufacturing plant, you're calling plays every day to keep production on schedule. It's why you count on Grainger's deep roster of products, from spare parts like bearings and motors, to safety equipment like insulated gloves, eye protection, and everything in between. It's this extensive on-hand inventory that helps you get the products you need same or next day, helping you stay in the game. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click grainger.com, or stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done. All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. We've got everything from international games to backup quarterback play affecting the NFL Week 5 slate. So that means we have booby traps at large, and we'll do our best Goonies impression on this episode to make sure you avoid them all on your next treasure hunt to find out more. Victory, that's right, it's the primer, and we've got the must-start players coming your way. I'm your host, Seth Wolcock, and back with me is the sloth to my chunk, cue the truffle shuffle, he's Derek Brown. D-Bro, how are you as we prepare for yet another adventure that is the NFL season? Low-key, the cast of Goonies was also amazing, dude. Yes. Like, Josh Brolin was in it. I mean, Sean Astin. Like, there's so many, like, people. When you go back and you look at that, the cast listing, you're like, oh, this was loaded. This was a loaded movie. Corey Feldman might have sold the whole show. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, this was a loaded movie. And like, okay, like, more respect. More respect. Yeah, and it just feels like it really does, you know, come into play this week as, you know, there are a lot of landmines out here, right? There are a lot of things that could go wrong, whether that's, you know, playing some wide receivers who don't have their usual quarterback at play, whether it's, you know, firing up these second, third, string running backs that are in the mix, or, you know, just all these international and, you know, home underdog type games. It's a very, very interesting slate, man. Yeah, I mean, you know, we're not going to talk about him today, but, like, another player that, like, could be stepping on a rake for a lot of fantasy GMs is like, okay, Will Shipley people are going to see more Damian Pierce than they want to see this week. That might not be good. So, yeah, but we're going to get to, we're not talking about any running backs because running back is such a wasteland and a mess. Yeah. That there's really, like, the obvious guys are the obvious guys. Even the borderline guys are the obvious guys. So they're being ranked high. There's a ton of injuries and everything in between. So, like, but with saying all of this, Seth, we got a ton of teams deal with injuries. Who's going to play for the Vikings passing attack? Who's going to play for the commanders passing attack? So there are some deep polls, and we're going to talk about wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends on this show. We're hopefully helping people fill out a lot of flex spots and maybe some wide receivers and wide receiver two and three spots considering all the injuries people are dealing with. Yeah, I absolutely agree, man. We're going deep. We're, you know, uncovering the fireplace and going into the holes and going into the trenches here. And hopefully we come out on the other side and we can save our town and save our season. You are really carrying this Goonies metaphor. The analogies, they write themselves, man. You are dedicated. You are dedicated to the bit, sir. I think it's that time. I think Goonies was also set in, like, the fall. So I just got the Goonie vibe. You know what I mean? Maybe Sunday night football. Sometimes I throw a movie on the second screen, right? And maybe this weekend. Hocus Pocus is always usually a good one this time of year, but Goonies might just hit this weekend even better. Derek, let's go to the quarterback position where we have seen just a rejuvenation for a former second overall pick who kind of have to playing out of his mind right now. Yeah, CJ Stroud looks like he might be back, Seth. I played well, and I know it was versus the Cowboys, and stuff like that. But his per dropout metrics were looking and more encouraging to begin the season. I love CJ Stroud. It's a combination of the matchup this week, as well as the fact that Houston is passing at the sixth highest rate in the red zone right now. So CJ Stroud, can he get two? Can he get three passing touchdowns? I mean, also, when you add on top of this, Houston, we know that they cannot run the ball. Their offensive line has been bad. They're not. They're not giving the running backs any room to run. So high passing rate inside the 20, can't run, going to lead on Stroud. The matchup also lends itself to that because if Tennessee has been doing anything, they're much better at stopping the run versus the passing quarterbacks, allowing the 10th highest shorts per attempt, 12th highest passing success rate. And the other thing about Stroud that we know over time and time and time again, Seth, is he does not like to be pressured. He wants a clean pocket to throw from. Yeah. And that possibly makes a difference for him as, as it does a lot of the quarterbacks as well. And I'm not saying that doesn't matter, but the big takeaway here too, is not only are the Tennessee Titans bad on the secondary, they also can't rush the, rush the passer, Seth. Fifth lowest pressure rate. So CJ Stroud's going to have time to throw. Houston wants to throw near the goal line. This all sets up. It feels like a perfect storm for CJ Stroud to have another QB one week. Yeah. And I know sometimes as fancy managers, we're getting upset with like what Nick Caley's doing. As far as deployment of certain players. I can't talk about that, man. Nope. Can't do it. That being said though, and maybe I would love your opinion. Do you think it's more his, his offense, or do you think it's more that the Texans defense has just regressed so much that we're seeing like CJ Stroud right now in team pass plays per game, 43, six most in the NFL. You look at pace of play. They're also six in that as well. And they're throwing it deep. He's second in deep ball attempts. Do you think that's more of a product of the offensive environment that, that has, uh, shown itself here down in Houston? Or do you think this is more just that defense is not playing up to standard and CJ Stroud having to come from behind a lot. There's a lot to chew on there. I think the, the high level takeaways are they can't run the ball. So trying to impose your will when you have the offensive line that they have and the archetype of running backs that they have, because David Montgomery needs a little bit of a runway. Like he's got to get momentum build up in the second level is really where he makes defenders pay, but he's getting hit out of the line as crazy. Like at or behind the line of scrimmage over 50% of his fricking runs. Like it's a top five clip right now. So I think you look at what the offense can't do also with what they are doing and they're leaning into the past. I think one it's because CJ Stroud is playing better football this year. Like that, that, that is a fact he is playing better football. But also when you look at this, if you're going to run at a fast pace by doing that and running, hurry up and running faster, what you're allowing is less defensive substitutions and less things where the, the, the defense on the other side can sub players in and out can get kind of wonky with coverages and stuff like that. So really it also for CJ Stroud can kind of break things down and make it a little bit less complicated than if you're taking the full 30, you know, if you're taking all the time before every play and running things slow. Yeah. Great point there. And if Houston and the Tennessee Titans does not, you know, tickle your fancy this weekend, how about, how about a matchup between the Cleveland Browns and New York jets? What do you have at the wide receiver position, Derek? I love how you set that up because people are supposed to feel encouraged. And then you're like Browns versus jets. And everybody's like, Ooh, immediately. Cause that was better than it has been in years past. Like this would be a matchup a year or two ago. That's like unwatchable. At least like there's some fun players on both these teams. Now, at least we don't have to watch Zach Wilson throw the ball. So there's that, but to the Denzel Boston of it all, I I'm not cheating because right now as a record, according to Tom, he's wide receiver, 30, 31, depending on what you're looking at in ECR. So in our, in the qualifications for us doing this video, Seth, but I don't think that people realized Denzel Boston is the wide receiver, 20 and fantasy points per game. I really don't. As well as realizing that amongst 77 qualifying wide receiver, Seth Denzel Boston, who wasn't a first round wide receiver was too slow. Couldn't separate was really overrated for what I was told coming into the NFL Denzel Boston, 70, seven qualifying wide receivers, Denzel Boston is 17th in separation and yards per route run and seventh best in route win rate. Hmm. Feels like he's too slow. Feels like he's overrated. Feels like he's definitely a second round receiver, maybe a third or fourth round receiver. Who knew Seth, but he's really fricking good at football, man. And then when you look at the coverage stuff, jets have been running at the fifth highest rate of two high 62% of the defensive snaps versus two high Denzel Boston, 21% target per route run rate, a very strong dare. I say, let's say elite 4.47 yards per route run versus two high. I think Denzel Boston's going to get it done yet again this week. Yeah. Brandon Stevens is a cornerback that I love to see opposing teams pick on. Yeah. I mean, even like he even revived Roma doomsday last week, right? Six for 94. And, and Rome was very close to scoring an additional touchdown on the day. And I would say Denzel Boston with him ranking top 10, the NFL and both air yard share and a dot as a whole, you're looking for the big, big play, right? You're looking for the high value touches down the sideline. And you're thinking maybe we get that here in this one. Look, I think that this is one of those games where the Cleveland Browns do win this game. But I think if the jets can continue to push them, if Gino Smith can continue to look good and we don't have any weather in play up there in the big Apple, we could see, you know, some back and forth action from Cleveland and the jets. Let's go overseas, Derek, where you're taking us to London, any London adventure movies, like national treasure, I could think of, like National Treasure 2, I know they're ripping around. around there that's probably my favorite you got you got a favorite one english when i am up at 2 or 3 a.m finishing the primer and and other research and stuff and i'm just standing in the kitchen like okay i don't need to do it but i'm gonna eat a snack before i go to bed and you just turn on one of those movies where you can just kind of zone out you just like and a lot of my my weakness du jour for that seth is action movies london has fallen oh okay yeah okay i go down that rabbit hole i i can't say i'm proud of it i'm not gonna stay i'm not gonna certainly better movies but they're worse movies as well good movie i'm not saying that yeah but what i will say is well you just want something to just you know just turn on you're like oh okay it's like playing call of duty but i'm just watching it okay cool kind of sounds like the eagles kind of sounds like the eagles offense as a whole this year oh man yeah uh that it's been rough but i i am going to tell people that i think don tavian wicks is a really solid flex out of all this in london this week so he had the down game last week when everybody was like oh wicks is wide receiver one in the offense and i was like man i i want to believe it i think he could do he could do things because he's been awesome this year on a per route basis separation route win rate and stuff problem of it all is that don tavian wicks saw trent mcduffie on 52 of his routes last week and against trent mcduffie don tavian wicks one target seven receiving yards so mcduffie got the best of him now you look at this week much better setup for don tavian wicks and i'm not saying that the jags are a pushover pass defense far from it but you look at over the last the three previous games of four wicks tangle with mcduffie 17 target share 2.29 yards per route run 23 first reach here all of those are really strong to really damn good metrics you look at the three three of the four games the jags have played this year seth they've utilized too high at 56.7 to 56.9 percent of the defensive snaps why does this matter because don tavian wicks is a really strong wicks has been very good against too high 18 percent target per route run rate 2.31 yards per route run you look at the jags defense as well like they have been stingy and giving up touchdowns is very much been but do not break there but okay fine if wicks doesn't score touchdown but he gets like six catches for 80 yards you're still happy with 14 ppr points so again that's totally fine i'm not saying he's going to get into the end zone but people need to understand versus perimeter wide receivers this is not going to happen this is not going to happen this is not going to happen this defense is giving up the 10th most yards per target to the position so wicks could pile up some yardage and if he does get into the end zone he's going to have a very good day in a bounce back spot where he let a lot of people down last week and then all the stink of everything around the eagles and all that kind of stuff people say jalen hurts sucks and stuff i'm not saying he's playing good football right now i think he could play better this week considering last week's defense versus what he's facing this week the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast is brought to you by granger if you're a utility lineman if you're a utility lineman if you're a utility lineman you're constantly working to keep the power flowing no matter what comes your way aging infrastructure extreme weather and high-risk environments mean you always have to be ready to tackle whatever the grid throws at you that's why granger can be a trusted teammate with about one and a half million products from voltage detectors hot sticks and switches to protective gear like arc flash suits and insulated gloves granger can help you handle whatever challenge comes your way so when the pressure's on granger helps you get the win call 1-800-GRAGER click granger.com or stop by granger for the ones who get it done by monday night the advice is in your lineups are locked and all you can do is watch maybe you're protecting a one-point lead maybe you need 12 out of your flex or maybe your opponent has one kicker left and now every field goal attempt feels personal make one part of the night perfect get di giorno pizza ready for kickoff then settle in enjoy restaurant quality pizza from your own oven and stay locked into the matchup through the final snap you don't want to step away when one target one touchdown or one unnecessary point can decide your week buy di giorno pizza on the weekend run so you at least know monday night dinner is covered rankings can guide you waivers can save you but once the game starts fantasy brings the chaos dinner doesn't have to it's not delivery it's di giorno okay chicken nugget fans i've got huge news the new burger king chicken nuggets just dropped and they are the crispiest the juiciest and the tastiest chicken nuggets ever at burger king burger king heard that a lot of you didn't like the old chicken nuggets so they got to work and reinvented them to go along with the new chicken nuggets a lot of the sauces were reinvented too because better chicken nuggets deserve better sauces we're talking new buffalo sauce honey mustard sweet and sour and even a whole new option to the new special savory sauce which is the new special savory sauce which is the new special savory sauce which is the new special savory sauce which is only available for a limited time at participating u.s restaurants i mean you need to taste it all for yourself this new chicken nugget reinvented based on real feedback is made with 100 white meat chicken and is now better than ever you gotta try the new burger king chicken nuggets and sauces today it just feels like right now like we have lost all the main characters out of this eagles defense or offense right i mean yeah no saquon hank bigsby we'd love to fire him up but he's on the shelf now as well davonta smith as you mentioned banged up and like we really haven't seen the ascension from makai lemon that we thought we were maybe gonna get dallas goddard remains out yeah yeah well i i think i think people in general i was more of an eli stowers guy myself if i'm being frank you know i was a lemon hater people call me a lemon hater because i had denzel boston above him in uh rookie rankings that is true as i look in right now derrick can you get me a lemon hater because i had denzel boston above him in uh yes the one x wide receiver against this jacksonville team that has not hit double digit ppr points no courtland sutton three for 25 and that was the same game though that jaylen wall did go for you know eight for 138 right so we've seen it whether it's denzel boston week one whether it's t higgins last week going off once jamar chase went down or whether it's just oh i don't know guys like mac holland's taking him 6 for 87 we've seen this team be a bit susceptible i am liking the improvement we see in this team i think it's going to be a good game i think it's going to be seen out of travis hunter at cornerback but he is likely not going to be the one who is uh is on wicks here to start this game so i don't hate the play over there in london make sure you guys are getting wicks into your lineup early again 9 30 a.m eastern time game there use the fancy pros autopilot tool to help you and also speaking of our tools take the guesswork out of your start sit decisions with the fancy pro start sit assistant instantly see your optimal lineup based on your roster scoring settings and advice for more than 100% fancy football experts you can even set your lineup with one click so get started at fancy pros.com slash start sit and derek you and me and i think maybe the entire fancy football community has had to come around to a player that through his first two seasons in the nfl looked like he was going to be a gigantic day two bust but he has been anything but that in year number three and uh oh yeah michael pitman jr out for the pittsburgh steelers this week just came across the timeline so what do you have happening out there in the steel city uh who knew who knew michael pitman jr was going to be out when did you see this hit the timeline yesterday what i'm probably going to talk about the fact that he was on a scooter yesterday in the locker room no and then oh okay well i'll just catch everybody up here if they're not aware so yesterday are we talking a razor scooter we talking like a like a walmart scooter dropped up oh wow okay put foot weight dude was non-weight bearing on his foot okay so definitely not razor so he's scooting around the locker room non-weight bearing on his foot doesn't even have a freaking shoe on his foot and then the steelers go out and list him as a limited practice participant for wednesday and i'm like are we serious did we lose the plot like are you freaking serious you hate injury reports man he's i i hate goofiness and idiocy like all right is anybody dumb enough to think that he is going to go out there and practice when dude is on a scooter and cannot bear weight on one of his feet and he's already been ruled out i guess that limited practice just took it all out of him seth or maybe it never happened i anyway i i digress but this leads me to roman wilson baby i love roman wilson this week and this isn't just like box score chasing over the last two weeks he has had 60 and then 74 receiving yards he's been awesome top 24 receiver in both those weeks and scoring and the big thing is he's getting more usage in this offense so michael pitman jr either not a part of the offense or now he's out is going to bump that up even more for roman wilson like 18 percent target share over the last two weeks 3.83 yards per wrap run seth and now he goes against a defense that's giving up the second most yards per target to slot receivers so roman wilson is at wide receiver 51 at the time of us recording this i know when injuries all kind of shift around he's going to be probably inside the top 45 maybe the top 40 in rankings but i think he is a very strong wide receiver three play that could produce again as a wide receiver two this week and the other thing about it is he's probably out there on a ton of waiver wires right now seth because i even went in some of my leagues this morning and last night before recording this and picked him up after waivers ran yeah uh the return of the roman empire has just been awesome this year dude i'll tell you that and like it's to the point I'm kicking myself because I had him in a couple of dynasty leagues i drafted him as a second third round pick a few years ago in rookie drafts and i just kind of gave up right and but how could you not arthur smith said no he shoved this dude into a corner yeah like he couldn't play like he was a scrub like you gotta get my tight end for some snaps here bro sorry you're not getting on the field this week this is not the the right form for this but arthur smith all of a sudden is like using his best players at ohio state where he's just feeding jeremiah smith to give him the highs and i'm like wow i wish you would have done this in the nfl right instead of running out johnny smith and and the works yeah absolutely drake london they're you know they're they're like hey man what's up with that i mean not that we didn't get paid but still exactly yeah and i think the interesting thing about the steelers team is they're a lot worse defensively than i think a lot of people give them credit for like steelers right now are throwing at a top five pace in the nfl they right now 43.3 passing yard or passing plays per game that's the fifth most in the nfl and you know i don't know if you can see that but i think that's a lot of people are throwing at a top five pace in the nfl they right now 43.3 passing yard or passing plays per game that's the fifth most in the nfl and roman wilson taking advantage not only is this a guy right now who is ranking top five in design targets but deep targets he's six in the nfl and he's also 13th in air yard so we are getting it looked his way right now heavily by aaron rogers do you think the absence of michael pitman jr and maybe pushing him more into two wide receiver sets only helps here it seems like derrick or do you think maybe with jeremy bernard coming in um and taking some of that slot production now actually hurt him this week i think he'll probably run in two wide receiver sets it's it's a good point i think the the big takeaway and i think what you're getting at right now is i don't think roman wilson is coming off the field for anybody like he'll play in two wide receiver sets when they go three wide he'll probably go into the slot like they'll put somebody else on the outside so i don't think he's gonna lose snaps depending on where he's aligned okay they want to run it this week the other thing that we didn't bring up at the at the top of this and i'm not going to say that aaron rogers is a good quarterback choice but the thing i do want to tell people is he aaron rogers over the last two games has morphed into aaron winston he is doing his best jamis winston impersonation his a-not is through the roof his default rate is top five his catchable throw rate is low but he's just like dropping back and he's like rome you down there somewhere dk you down there somewhere and he's tossing it up so like that yolo nature the reason i bring it up that yolo nature is good because we can get more explosive plays out of roman wilson in this offense than like okay last year's version of aaron rogers where it was dink and dunk dink and dunk five yard a dot you know what i mean yeah i've watched a lot of post packers aaron rogers because i was a kind of a closeted jets fan for a minute and then of course i've seen him in pittsburgh over the last you know year and a quarter last week against the browns that was maybe one of the best i i've seen aaron rogers play since he you know tore that achilles so it's exciting to see him back especially here against a colt secondary that i'm not sure if he's going to be able to do that but he's going to be able to do that you can spend all the first round picks to trade for sauce garden you can spend all the money to bring in cam bynum uh in the offseason it does not fix this secondary whatsoever we have some uh gms and hot uh coaches on the hot seat across the nfl maybe none hotter they're out there in the uh midwestern part of the country in indianapolis derrick take us to another afc match up here that feels a bit stinky but you already wanted to get invested with cj stroud so it makes sense that maybe you want to also go to the well with one of his wide receivers yes so i i want to be very careful in particular about how we frame this okay i'm not telling everybody in 10 team and 12 team leagues to start this man i think this is very much dependent upon what your options are and again a player that is still out there on almost every waiver wire even sharp leagues because i went and picked them up this morning and last night as well okay because i'm dealing like everybody else is dealing so i'm this is the therapy couch i want to talk to all the fantasy managers that might be missing terry mcclure and justin jefferson jordan addison all these other different players malik neighbors now has knee soreness everybody that is hurt and battered and might be out this week jaylen null is out there and i think he's flex worthy and could give you good production this week there is a lot of volatility and we're going to talk about it here real fast one the nick caley of all of this and if anybody's heard his quotes on null and the fact that he runs groupings and he doesn't just put his best players on the field he just sounds like a guy trying to sound smarter than he is and trying to be the biggest guy in the room it's just idiocy but if he does play jaylen all this week and jaylen all in two of four games this year has played above 55 of the snaps in the last two seasons when he has played at least 33 of the snaps in both of those instances over two seasons in those games seth jaylen all has eclipsed 1.9 yards per route run in both of those last year his per route metrics in that small sample size were elite this year they are very strong with one and two and three and four yards per route run he's incredibly productive when he is on the field like this year he only has a 9.7 percent target share and a 13 percent for his read share last week but when he's on the field dude a 2.21 yards per route run and the matchup at tennessee is giving up the third most yards per target to opposing slot wide receivers and then and the most fantasy points per opportunity to that position jaylen all could be a guy that like you pick up all three yards the waiver wire and he gives you a strong wide receiver three hell wide receiver two type of production this week so i'm not saying that there's not volatility there is risk but that is all baked in because he's still out there on the freaking waiver wire so if you're dealing with injuries and a battered roster you're sitting at like you've won one game and now you're like i don't even have enough healthy players to fill out a roster to start this week or for my wide receiver three or flex spot pick him up and play him yeah i think it's an interesting proposition especially because last week even with nico collins coming back we actually saw a season high 62 of the snaps with jaylen noel on the field right now it feels like we're kind of finally starting to phase out guys like jared waning xavier hutchinson out of this wide receiver core the one thing i think that the fantasy and the betting public will think is that we have tank dell coming back this week right he's not coming back this week okay okay i don't see if he does he's taking what a handful of snaps like one handful i i also think too like the thing keeping my i know tank dell's a slender guy he is mostly a perimeter wide receiver at least was when he was playing with the texans a couple years ago so i i think jaylen noel has the safer like long term outlook here like i think if tank dell starts taking anyone off the field maybe it's kashon booty a little bit right into into wide receiver sets and playing the flanker so yeah it's a gross game it's a low total it's it's not going to be a good game it's not going to be a good game it's not going to be necessarily a fun one to watch but jaylen noel certainly on the radar this week for downtown derrick brown and d bro we have another tight end that you got this week for us and you're going back to the well man yeah well i'm going back to the well because it provides i mean we talked about starting mark andrews with absolute confidence and lo and behold he was tied in eight last week so we're going back to the well right now in ecr he is tied in 13 on a per route basis dude andrews has been awesome the problem up before last week seth was that he hadn't scored any freaking touchdowns and he finally got into the end zone and what do we see okay the production and the end the per route efficiency led itself to a touchdown and a tight end one finish he could do that again this week because if you look at like amongst 46 qualifying tight ends seth mark andrews right now he is fourth in target share 12th and yards per route run in fifth and first reach here he's playing extremely good football so when the touchdown variance hits back in his direction which he did last week i think he can again this week against a defense seth that gave up 15.6 ppr points to pat fryer muth 18.3 ppr points to darren waller oh and by the way 11.9 pprs to juan ppr points to juan johnson without scoring a touchdown yeah andrews could end up in that 15 16 range this week with a touchdown and be a very strong tight end one when he's not even being ranked as a top 12 option this week yeah interesting he he has had hit or miss games over the last year without lamar jackson looking at the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet analyzer that said though a lot of those games with cooper kush right and thankfully snoop huntley i think brings a little bit more familiarity and for as long as snoop's been around this organization who's the one constant there it's been mark andrews right like i don't know if these guys are boys i don't know if they're eating breakfast i don't know if they're going out and hitting the range after uh after a long day at the facility but they've at some establishment with each other and and some rep report so hopefully we see a big game from mark andrews here in week number five and derrick that's going to do it for us right here on the fancy pros fancy football podcast thank you all so much for riding with us comment down below your favorite week five must start players is derrick on to something with some of these starts is he crazy has he lost it will we find one eye willy's treasure we want to know right now make sure you subscribe to the channel smash that like button on your way out for derrick brown i'm seth wilcock take care y'all continue with the bit i love it thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast if you love the show the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on spotify follow us on x instagram and tiktok at fantasy pros and subscribe to our youtube channel at youtube.com slash fantasy pros. 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