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The Premonitions Bureau

48m 52s

The Premonitions Bureau

The transcript details the 1966 Aberfan disaster, where a massive coal waste tip slid down a mountain in South Wales, burying a primary school and killing 144 people, mostly children. The village, dependent on the coal industry, had long been at risk, and the National Coal Board had ignored warnings about unstable piles, leading to a tribunal that called the tragedy preventable. Amid the grief, psychiatrist John Barker arrived, drawn by reports of a boy who died from fear. He began collecting accounts of premonitions—dreams, visions, and physical sensations—from people like Lorna Middleton, a dance teacher who woke choking, and Alan Hensher, a switchboard operator who trembled with dread. Barker and journalist Peter Fairley launched a "Premonitions Bureau" in a London newspaper, inviting the public to submit predictions. Over a year, they logged thousands, with a few striking hits, such as Hensher's accurate vision of a plane crash in Cyprus and a train derailment at Charing Cross. However, the bureau's success rate was low, and it failed to prevent any disasters. Barker, fascinated by the idea of fear-induced death, published his research but faced criticism. He died suddenly in 1968, and the project faded. The transcript reflects on the human desire to foresee tragedy and the limits of such attempts, leaving the bureau's legacy as a curious, unfulfilled experiment.

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7277 Words, 40616 Characters

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For your next home project, try Thumbtack. They know homes. Hire the right pro today. In the early morning of October 21st, 1966, a 52-year-old dance teacher in London named Lorna Middleton suddenly woke up from her sleep. It was around 6 a.m. She described, waking up and experiencing a choking sensation and felt like she couldn't breathe. A kind of physical sensation in her throat and struggling to breathe. Writer Sam Knight. Lorna Middleton had a tenant staying with her. He made her a cup of tea that morning, and she told him about what had happened. She said she had an ominous feeling. Hours earlier, a man named Alan Hensher was at work at a telephone switchboard in London when he said he suddenly began to tremble all over and had a feeling something bad was about to happen. He later wrote, It just hit me without warning. I did mention to a lady sitting next to me that a big disaster was taking place in this country, which could cost many lives. I couldn't pinpoint the place of occurrence. Around the same time, a 10-year-old girl who lived in a small village in South Wales called Aberfan reportedly told her mother that she'd had a bad dream. She'd dreamt that she was on her way to school, but the school in Aberfan was gone. It was covered in something black. Tell me about the village of Aberfan. What was the village like in the 1960s? So Aberfan was built pretty rapidly during the second half of the 19th century to be a mining village. Were most of the people living there in the 60s somehow touching the coal industry? You knew someone who was working in the mines or you were supporting those who worked in the mines? 100%. It was a place defined by the colliery. And the activity of taking the coal out of the ground. On the morning of October 21st, a group of men were working on a pile of coal waste on a mountain just outside the village. There were several huge piles like this one on the mountain that had been created from waste brought out of the mines. You would mine the coal, take the good coal, and then there would be the debris, the waste from that, and also particularly something called tailings, which is the coal which is too fine, the kind of powdery stuff that's sort of too fine to use or to sort of sell or to kind of package up in a useful form. And then that would be hoisted onto a kind of tramway. Can you imagine something a bit like a ski lift sort of hauling cartload after cartload after cartload up the hill where it would kind of reach the top where there would be a. a small gang of men, six guys, and then they would kind of unhook the topmost cart and tip it onto the waste pile. And these heaps would grow and grow on the hillside until they would become unstable. And then the coal plant would shift the tramways to another part of the hillside and make a new one. That morning, the men noticed something unusual. It'd been raining for weeks, and the men working on the tip had noticed it shifting and starting to shift down the hillside. You could sort of take a reading off a tree or a fence post. There was a particular dead tree that the men kind of kept an eye on, and they could see that the pile was beginning to shift. And that kind of wasn't unusual in itself. It was kind of normally a sign that it's like, okay, you know, we've put enough here time to kind of move on and make a new one. But the rain had been intense. And that morning, the group of men in charge of the heap noticed it had sunk 10 feet down the hillside in the night, and they were unhappy about the state of it. The men had a shack on the mountain and a telephone, and so they tried to make a call to let people know that the pile had been shifting more than normal. But that morning, the phone didn't work. And so one of the guys was sent down there, sent down the hill to kind of raise the news that the pile was unsteady. And while he was gone, it suddenly slipped. It was an avalanche, effectively, of kind of fine, wet, powdery slurry and muck and these tailings that I described, and it kind of thundered down the mountain. The men couldn't see the village below them. They just saw the coal pile disappear in a black cloud. The men started running down the hillside shouting, trying to warn people about the collapsing heap. It kind of came thundering down, and people in the village compared it to the sound of a low-flying jet. The avalanche buried sheep, cattle, and a farmhouse with three people still inside it as it crashed down the mountain. A 14-year-old boy watched as it came towards the village and said it was, quote, moving fast, as fast as it could. As fast as a car goes into town. It traveled in the direction of Aberfan's outermost street near the mountainside, Moy Road. There were two schools there. There was the primary school and the secondary school. And it sort of, the main force of the tip struck the primary school and a few houses next to it. And it just came down just as the kids were finishing off school prayers for the last day of term before the, you know, half-term break. And, uh, and they were suddenly buried. A man described seeing doors and windows of buildings crashing in. Then he was pinned under a piece of iron. And then he said, everything became quiet. When it was all over, miners and villagers gathered in the street and began digging through the debris for survivors. 144 people died, 116 children. Most of the children were between 7 and 10. About an hour later, the BBC shared news of the disaster. And people started traveling to Aberfan to help. Sam Knight writes that somewhere between 1,000 and 2,000 people volunteered to help dig for survivors. People showed up at a nearby hospital and offered to give blood. So within hours, the village is besieged by well-meaning offers, of help, which become overwhelming. So you've got, um, you've got ambulances, you've got industrial machinery, you've got miners coming off their shifts desperate to help. You've got earth-moving equipment. You've got this just kind of outpouring of, of a desire to help, um, even though it's impossible to help. You know, no one was pulled alive, um, after 11 o'clock in the morning. As bodies were dug, dug out of the debris, they were brought to a local chapel and placed on the pews. Letters were written out in chalk, F, M, or J, indicating whether the dead were female, male, or juvenile. Sam writes that a line of parents waited outside to identify their children. The next morning was overcast. One journalist wrote, There was a grayness everywhere. Faces from the tiresome, tiredness, and anguish. Houses and roads from the oozing slurry of the tips. Trucks pulled into the village with donations. Tinned meat, chewing gum, soup, and bottles of brandy. Sam Knight writes that the Red Cross handed out 10,000 cigarettes, and an animal welfare organization went door-to-door and asked if anyone needed help with their pets. The scale of the tragedy, the fact that so many children were involved, involved, the fact that on some level this was foreseen in the sense that the practice of of piling waste like this was just so obviously reckless um all of those things kind of combined immediately to make it a you know a singular um tragedy in the british imagination were people talking about how this this this could have been avoided immediately you've got anger against the national coal board which is the you know nationalized organization sort of in charge of the british coal industry uh because this was obviously dangerous this was obviously reckless you've got a kind of a class dimension in terms of this is a village for workers and their families and they're the ones who've been hit by this thing so yeah immediately this is a kind of you know questions of being at at just a very kind of rational sort of engineering level years before the disaster aberfan's town council had contacted the national coal board because they were concerned about the waste piles on the mountain the piles had slid before although never this badly but the coal board hadn't made any real changes to stabilize the piles or make sure they couldn't slide later a tribunal concluded that the disaster was quote a terrifying tale of bungling ineptitude and a total lack of direction from above and that quote the aberfan disaster could and should have been prevented the morning after the disaster while rescue workers were still digging bodies out of the debris a man named john barker drove into aberfan john barker was a psychiatrist and he was a doctor at a large mental hospital that's about a hundred miles from aberfan and barker was a on the one hand a mid-20th century british intellectual you know he was very well educated he'd been to cambridge and he published articles on a variety of of research subjects in the lancet the american journal of medicine he was ambitious he wanted to make a name for himself and on the other hand he he dabbled in what we would call the occult you know he was someone who'd been interested in ghosts uh his whole life uh he was interested in in visions and prophecy um and premonitions john barker was collecting case studies for a book he was writing so for a few years he'd been studying cases of people who had been in inverted commas scared to death so he came because he was interested in fear and the effect of fear on the human body and in the early kind of confused reporting from aberfan there was a report of a boy who escaped from the school but later died from shock or from fear and that was the kind of thing to to prick the attention of of dr barker and he came he came rushing to aberfan the next day to try and find this boy and and what had happened to him did he find the boy when he got there no he didn't find the boy because because it was wrong there hadn't been a boy of that description um and he he sort of describes it afterwards you know arriving in the village and suddenly suddenly feeling out of place suddenly aware that he's trespassing in a place that um is full of onlookers and full of people coming there obviously with kind of good feeling in their heart but also an edge of of sort of voyeurism or just wanting to to see something as as appalling as this john barker wrote the experience sickened me parents who had lost their children were standing in the street looking stunned and hopeless and many were still weeping there was hardly anybody i encountered who had not lost someone sam knight writes that the experience reminded barker of the world war ii bombing of london which he had lived through as a teenager and he wrote a book about what had happened and what he had experienced and then he heard the story of the 10 year old girl in aberfan who the day before the disaster dreamt her school was gone the girl had told her mother quote i dreamed i went to school and there was no school there something black had come down all over it the next day the girl died in the disaster and barker heard another story about an eight-year-old boy who also died in the accident the night before he'd made a drawing of people digging in the hillside above it he'd written the end and then john barker had an idea he thought maybe people outside of aberfan had had premonitions of the disaster too and he called a journalist friend of his at the evening standard which was a kind of big a big london newspaper he called the science correspondent there a man called peter fairley and asked him to publish an article requesting other dreams or premonitions or visions of of aberfan and that was published just a week after the after the disaster in the evening standard the article read did anyone have a genuine premonition before the coal tip fell on aberfan that is what a senior british psychiatrist would like to know john barker heard from 76 people he wrote them back and asked for witnesses who could confirm that they had mentioned having premonitions before the disaster happened out of the 76 people john barker heard from he thought 22 seemed credible and there were seven people who he called premonitions sometimes with physical symptoms the group of seven included lorna middleton the dance teacher in london who woke up on the morning of the disaster with a choking sensation and a sense of foreboding and alan hensher the switchboard operator who'd started trembling while he was at work the day before and had told his co-worker that something terrible was about to happen and that it might cost many lives i'm phoebe judge this is criminal we'll be right back to listen without ads join criminal plus thanks to fetch pet insurance for their support you might know i have a dog her name is eight she's only a few years old and luckily she's in great health but last year i had to take her to the vet after she ate something she shouldn't have so i know firsthand that vet bills can be unexpected and they can be high fetch is 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that provides valuations diagnoses and medication management for conditions like adhd anxiety depression bipolar disorder ocd ptsd insomnia and more your talkiatry provider is a licensed psychiatrist who can provide you with who can diagnose mental health conditions and prescribe you medication when it's appropriate your provider takes the time to understand what's going on and supports you over time with consistent care you can keep seeing the same person too so you're not starting over each visit head to talkiatry.com to complete the short assessment and get matched with an in-network psychiatrist in just a few minutes that's talkiatry.com slash criminal to get matched in minutes tell me who was lorna middleton so lorna middleton was a music teacher and a dance teacher who practiced in london uh during the second world war and for the sort of for the decades afterwards she was uh an emigre i guess that's the kind of word she would like us to use of her from boston where she grew up in the 1920s and 1930s her parents were english lorna middleton had been a child performer a ballerina and a singer um but she could never quite get it together in London. She couldn't break into the ballet schools, the family didn't have much money, and so they settled in suburban London, and she opened a little music school. And that's kind of who she was for her whole life. She had a lot of cats, she looked after, you know, the musical fortunes of kids in her neighborhood. And during her lessons, she would sometimes tell the children, oh, you know, I had a premonition about something, or I knew that was going to happen. And she was someone throughout her life who had visions and could see things before they happened. She compared it to knowing the answer in a spelling test. It was as if events were kind of already visible to her, or she would see letters lit up like a lamp. And she would say, oh, I know what I'm going to do. He was fascinated by Lorna Middleton and Alan Hensher's apparent gifts for predicting events. He wrote a journal article about the Aberfan premonitions and said, is this perhaps an unrecognized medical or psychosomatic syndrome? He referred to it as a pre-disaster syndrome and theorized that maybe a small subset of the population had it. I think he was someone who was. pushing the frontiers of psychiatry and what he thought the mind could do. And I think, you know, it's difficult to kind of reconstruct the scientific mainstream of the mid-1960s, but it was a more kind of capacious sort of weirder space than it maybe is today. And so he was on the edges and he got in trouble for things, but he wasn't a kook by any stretch. He's in a hospital for a thousand people. He's responsible for 250 severely ill people. He's been given the first antipsychotic medication in 1955. You know, they're just beginning to experiment with the treatment of serious illness and delusions. And in that context, telepathy, seeing things before they happen, it's just not the craziest thing he's heard that day. He didn't really feel challenged by the work of the hospital, where he was a senior psychiatrist. Instead, he wanted to do research into new psychiatric treatments. He had done studies trying to treat addiction and unwanted behaviors in people. The hierarchy in his hospital was not receptive to really any sort of research agenda, let alone one that was pretty fringe. John Barker went ahead with his research anyway. And about a year before the disaster in Aberveen. He'd come across an article in a medical journal that caught his attention. It was about a woman in Canada who was having a low-risk surgery. She was 43, and as a child, the woman had been told by a fortune teller that she was going to die at that age. She now felt convinced that she wouldn't survive the surgery. But she did. The surgery went well, and the woman woke up. But then suddenly went into shock and died. A post-mortem showed that she had died of a rare failure of the adrenal glands. The medical staff said they were shocked and mystified, and wondered if the woman's, quote, emotional tensions had anything to do with her sudden death. John Barker had twice had similar experiences with patients who he thought seemed scared they were about to die, and then mysteriously died in the hospital. He wasn't. He wanted to find out if an intense fear of dying could somehow affect the body. If I tell you that something terrible is going to happen to you, does that have a physiological component? Does that kind of overwhelm the body in some way and sort of bring that thing into being? That's when he traveled to Aberveen, after hearing the false rumor of a boy who supposedly died of shock or fear. After assessing the premonitions people had sent in. about Aberveen, John Barker and the journalist he worked with at London's Evening Standard, Peter Fairley, published some of them in the newspaper. They received many different kinds of premonitions. One of them was a man having a dream of standing in front of a computer, which was obviously a kind of fairly unusual thing in the mid-60s, and just seeing the words Aberveen on a kind of on a black screen in front of him. Another premonition came about when he was in the hospital. One premonition came from a woman who'd been to a spiritualist meeting the night before the disaster, and had told six other people that she had a vision of a schoolhouse, a Welsh miner, a terrified little boy, and a, quote, avalanche of coal. Another woman said she'd been noticing a bad smell for days. She described it as a decaying smell, or a smell of death. An hour before the disaster in Aberveen, she was at work, and asked her co-workers. if he noticed the bad smell. He didn't. Then, right around when the disaster took place, the woman jumped from her chair and said something bad had happened. Her colleague said her face was highly inflamed, and she was breathing heavily. After publishing the premonitions, Barker and Fairley were invited to appear on a late-night television show, along with some of the people who had submitted premonitions about Aberveen. Lorna Middleton was one of them. It was the first time Peter Fairley had met most of them, and he wasn't sure what to make of them. He wrote, They were supposed to go on the show after the commercial break. But then the host of the TV show, David Frost, came backstage. David Frost took one look at them through the door and decided they were too strange, and Motley to go on stage with him. John Barker was angry about it. But Peter Fairley understood why the host had changed his mind. He could see how people might think their project didn't seem credible. So he suggested that they take a different approach. They should start to collect premonitions about things that were about to happen. To sort of avoid the hindsight problem, where it's like, oh, yeah, well, you would say that after the event. Instead, people were invited. Send in kind of open-ended prophecies and premonitions. They announced in the Evening Standard that they were opening what they called a premonitions bureau. They wrote, How would it work? How did the premonitions bureau log these? Would they take telephone calls? Would people send in mail? Yeah, that's it. it's telephone calls, it's postcards, cards, it's letters, it's telegrams, and they are all ending up on Peter Fairley's desk in the kind of crowded, cluttered newsroom of the evening standard, where they are mainly collated by his assistant, a woman named Jennifer Preston, and she created a system of filing cabinets, and there were kind of 13 different categories for the different premonitions that were coming in. There would be sort of transport, rail, you know, the royal family, sport, you know, things like that, and she would file these premonitions, and then she would also look at the newspapers and the wires coming in from around the world and kind of see whether any of these premonitions were sort of, were coming true. One of the categories was racing, and Peter Fairley, who liked to gamble, would sometimes check the folder for tips on what horse to bet on. They decided that the premonitions would be scored according to their accuracy, timing, and how unusual they were. Did anybody high up, any of the editors, say to Fairley, we're not doing this, this is too wild, this is too weird? No, they didn't. They encouraged him. I mean, Peter Fairley's editor was Charles Wintour, who is the father of Anna Wintour, the great fashion giant. And he was a stylish, sophisticated editor. And I think that two things were sort of exciting about the kind of premonitions project. One was that astrology and palm reading and thinking about your future was a more accepted part of British kind of intellectual culture. Oxford had a religious experience. Yeah, it was a religious experience, and it was a time of social and scientific progress. So it seems like a kind of a wacky project now with the sort of benefit of hindsight, but I think kind of, I think Wintour had kind of sharp instincts, both for what people wanted to read about and was maybe a little, a little trashy, a little dangerous, but also just might have some sort of a, you know, a little bit of a, you know, a little bit of a, you might have some, some sort of scientific kind of plausibility somewhere. They decided to keep the premonitions bureau going for one year and then assess how successful it had been. If it looked like disasters could be predicted, they imagined working with parliament and setting up some kind of official warning system for the whole country. Barker's vision of the premonitions bureau was collecting dreams and visions on a mass scale. He wanted to connect them all to a computer. Which would look for patterns in the information. And he kind of was describing, you know, a social network and sort of algorithms before they, before they happened. But John Barker acknowledged that it was sort of a catch-22. If a disaster was averted and never happened, how could people have premonitions of it? Still, he thought it was worth trying. John Barker encouraged some of the people who'd had premonitions about Aberfan, like Lorna Middleton and Alan Hensher, to keep sending in their visions. One early morning in March 1967, around 6:00 a.m., the phone rang at John Barker's home. It was Alan Hensher. He told John he'd just come off a night shift at the switchboard. He was upset and said, "I was hoping not to have to ring you, but now I feel I must." He said he'd had a premonition that kept returning to him of a plane crash. Alan said that it was a passenger jet, and that it carried 123 or 124 people. He said, "It is coming over mountains. It is going to radio. It is in trouble. Then it will cut out. Nothing." He can see lights flashing on and off. He can see a kind of a statue of Jesus. It gives a model of the plane called a cross. It is a fairly detailed description of a plane crash, which Barker faithfully jots down and adds to the premonition bureau's records. About a month later, a plane crashed in Cyprus. It was traveling to Basel from Bangkok. Many of the passengers were German and Swiss people who'd been on vacation when it got caught in bad weather. The pilot got permission to land at an airport in Cyprus. On its way down preparing to land, the plane clipped a wing on a hillside, rolled over and caught fire. The plane carried 130 people. 124 died on impact. At the time, it was maybe the fifth deadliest kind of plane crash on record, and the correlation between Hench's vision and the events that transpire is kind of immediate. The Evening in Cyprus is one of the most interesting events in the history of human history, and it's one of the most important events in the history of human history. There was a news story about his prophecy with the news report from the crash, so there's a kind of instant recognition that one of these premonitions seems to have been borne out. We'll be right back. Support for Criminal Comes is a production of the Center for Autism and Related Disorders. We'll be right back. There's nothing like a good pair of thoughtfully made socks. Bombas has a whole line of pro-level sport socks made for specific activities, like golf, yoga, the gym, and socks for every kind of runner. You might know I'm a runner, and I've tried Bombas for myself. 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It is trying to develop a thesis first formulated by Walter Cannon, who was the dean of Harvard Medical School in the 1940s, about so-called kind of voodoo death, you know, voodoo curses. If you are going to die, can that kind of set off a kind of hormonal kind of storm that could then sort of overwhelm the nervous system? This was a sort of physiology first described in the 1940s, and Barker was kind of trying to develop that idea and put a name on that, and it's something that we now call and study more as the placebo effect, you know, which is the opposite of the placebo effect, you know, instead of giving you an inert sugar pill saying, oh, this will probably help with your headache. You give someone an inert sugar pill and say, yeah, you might feel a few side effects once you have this, and then, hey, presto, people start to report them. And obviously, the kind of most extreme form of a placebo effect is kind of people, you know, suffering extreme symptoms, even though there's nothing physiologically wrong with them. One day in April, Lorna Middleton sent a note to the Premonitions Bureau. She'd included a sketch she'd made of a recent premonition of an astronaut inside a spacecraft. And she says that she can see an astronaut petrified, terrified, and just frightened, and says, you know, this venture will end in tragedy. And, you know, you can be dismissive and say, well, this was the height of the space race, things were going wrong, you know, sending in a premonition of something going wrong in space isn't particularly original, but she sends it at 5.30 in the afternoon on a Sunday. And at that moment, a Russian cosmonaut Vladimir Komarov is circling the Earth, about to find out that his spacecraft has sort of been during blast-off and many of the instruments sort of aren't working and he's going to have to steer his way back by hand, by skill alone through the atmosphere, which is an incredibly difficult sort of bit of piloting to do. It was decided that Komarov, who'd been to space before, would steer back through the atmosphere, back to Russia, on his 17th orbit of Earth. Komarov seemed optimistic. But the first two times he tried, the engines of his spacecraft failed and he was sent back into orbit, while his batteries drained more and more. He tried a third time, using his knowledge of the stars and planets to navigate. And he actually manages it. He manages to get through the atmosphere. But then his parachutes fail to deploy and his capsule just crashes into the Earth and he's killed on impact. And as I say, you can say, oh, look, space rays, things are going to go wrong. He's actually the first one to do that. He's the first and one of the very few astronauts to actually die, you know, in space or re-entering atmosphere. It was the first time that that ever happened. And she sent that in, you know, just a couple of days before. When John Barker heard the news about the crash, he wrote to Lorna, you were spot on, well done. But plenty of people were skeptical of the Premonitions Bureau, calling it unscientific and biased. One person said it was just a series of haphazard guesses. The Premonitions Bureau had been active a little less than a year, and they'd already received hundreds of premonitions. Most of them could not be verified. They run from shipping accidents to horse race winners and other sort of more lighthearted or sort of random things. But as the year progresses, you have a few that nonetheless kind of really die. Stand out. And the words Charing Cross. Four days later, a train leaving Hastings, bound for Charing Cross, suddenly derailed. The wheels had hit a break in the tracks. And four carriages flipped onto their sides. Forty-nine people died. And Hensher at the same time is on a shift at the switchboard complaining of a kind of worsening, worsening headache, worsening, worsening headache, until he gets sort of taken to the cemetery. And he's on a shift at the switchboard, complaining of a kind of worsening, worsening headache, worsening, worsening headache, until he gets sort of taken to the cemetery. The headache lifts, and he says, you know, it's happened. The next day, the story of Lorna and Alan's predictions was on the news. One newspaper headline read, Strange case of the two who knew. John Barker told a reporter, Quite honestly, it staggers me. And then the Premonitions Bureau reached its one-year mark. Based on their scoring system, they determined that 18 of the many hundreds of premonitions they'd received had come true. Sam Knight writes that it was a hit rate of just about 3%. And they agree with, you know, with Wintour's kind of blessing to run the experiment for another year, mainly on the strength of kind of Hensher and Middleton's premonitions, who do seem to sort of stand out. John Barker was busy in 1929, and in 1968, he was giving lectures and interviews about his book and research. And then he suffers a brain hemorrhage and dies in August 1968 at the age of 44. The rest of his family were downstairs when they suddenly heard him on the bedroom floor upstairs. He was taken to the hospital, where he died. About a year and a half before he died, John Barker had received a phone call from Alan Hensher at one in the morning. Earlier that day, the plane crash in Cyprus had been on the news, the one Alan Hensher seemingly predicted. And Barker's sort of like, oh, are you calling back about the plane crash or expecting to hear sort of more details about that? And he's, no, no, I'm worried about you. Alan Hensher said he'd been concerned about John all day. When he thought of him, his mind became all black. Alan asked John to check the gas supply at his house. But the house didn't have one. And he says, do you have a dark car? And Barker drove a dark green car. And he said, yes. And he says, look, you've got to be careful. I'm worried about you. And Barker says, are you afraid for my safety? And Hensher says, yes. The next morning, John Barker wrote a note titled Some Interesting Predictions and a Possible Death Sentence. Quote, I find it a little difficult to get off to sleep again and have, of course, decided to take extra care while driving. It would be wrong for me to say that I was not frightened by a prediction of this nature. Having recently written a book on people who were scared to death, I am perhaps beginning to feel what this would be like. You know, this is a subject that he's been studying for the last four years. And suddenly he's been told, that he's in danger. And you can tell he's unsettled by it, but he's also desperately curious about it and sort of wants to see what's going to happen. You know, he talks about taking precautions. He talks about contacting Hensher and kind of asking his advice about things. It's sort of where the experiment starts to break down between the kind of the experimenter and the subject. Before John Barker started going on speaking tours with his book, he saw Alan Hensher, who repeated his concerns. Alan thought something might happen to John in his home. He told him, I think you're going to have some trouble. John told Lorna Middleton about Alan's warning. She agreed that there was good reason for him to be careful. She dreams about Barker in the large black car arriving to sort of take Barker off and she recounts these to him. How did this start? How did this start to affect Barker? I mean, if this were me, I would, this would be hard. This would be really bad. It's a stressful time. It's a stressful time, there's no question, because Barker is, he's under huge pressure at work. He publishes his book. He's told off, he's reprimanded by his boss and by the kind of local national health board supervisors for sort of straying out of his lane. And yeah, and he's getting these, these warnings for his life at the same time. After John Barker died, the Premonitions Bureau kept going for a while longer, but eventually the project wound down. Jennifer Preston, the assistant at the Evening Standard, kept all of the notes they'd collected. And for years, she had filing cabinets holding more than 3,000 premonitions sitting in her house. Do you think that the Premonitions Bureau, I mean, was it a failure? In some sense, I mean, did anything actually come of it? No disasters were averted and it kind of just, the files just sat? It was definitely a sort of failure in a sort of objective sense of the thing that they wanted to build, you know, a kind of national early warning system with the kind of the nation sending in their dreams and presentments and feeding this into a sort of 1960s room-shaped computer. That never came to pass. I think that it succeeded in the sense of giving a kind of home for these questions, acknowledging that prophecy and seeing the future. It's a central part of how every human culture has tried to make sense of the future and to think about time. It's a central part of how every human culture has tried to make sense of the future. Criminal is created by Lauren Spohr and me. Nadia Wilson is our senior producer. Katie Bishop is our supervising producer. Our producers are Susanna Robertson, Jackie Sajico, Lily Clark, and Lena Sillison. This episode was fact-checked by Katie Sederborg. Our show is mixed and engineered by Veronica Simonetti. Julian Alexander makes original illustrations for each episode of Criminal. You can see them at thisiscriminal.com. And you can sign up for our newsletter, at thisiscriminal.com slash newsletter. Sam Knight's book is The Premonitions Bureau, A True Account of Death Foretold. We hope you'll consider supporting our work by joining our membership program, Criminal Plus. You can listen to Criminal, This Is Love, and Phoebe Reads a Mystery without any ads. Plus, you'll get bonus episodes. These are special episodes with me and Criminal co-creator Lauren Spohr talking about everything from how we make our episodes to the crime stories, the caught our attention that week to things we've been enjoying lately to learn more go to patreon.com slash criminal we're on facebook at this is criminal and instagram and tick tock at criminal underscore podcast we're also on youtube at youtube.com criminal podcast criminal is part of the vox media podcast network discover more great shows at podcast.voxmedia.com i'm phoebe judge this is criminal do you hear that that sound right that means that summer's officially here it means that grown adults just sprint into the street for a frozen dessert shaped like a cartoon but this summer mint mobile has a better treat every plan including unlimited is 15 a month and unlike ice cream it won't uh drip down your wrist or look nothing like the picture does anyone have any cash give it a try at mint mobile.com slash switch upfront payment of 45 for three months 90 for six months or 180 for 12 month plan required 15 per month equivalent taxes and fees extra new customer offer for initial plan term only greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy see terms hank joined bj's wholesale club the day he became a father of 30 i coach football now coach hank saves up to 25 off grocery store prices 30 pounds of pasta three cases of protein bars 75 sports drinks and that's just pregame he knows teamwork and bj's knows savings this is your home coach home of the save join for just 20 at bj's.com slash mesquite and save 10 cents per gallon for six months open soon limited time offer new members only bj's home of the save

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The Aberfan disaster occurred on October 21, 1966, when a coal waste tip collapsed, killing 144 people, including 116 children, in a Welsh mining village.
  2. The tragedy was preventable; the National Coal Board had ignored prior warnings about unstable waste piles, and a tribunal later condemned their negligence.
  3. Psychiatrist John Barker, intrigued by reports of premonitions, traveled to Aberfan and collected accounts of dreams, visions, and physical symptoms predicting the disaster.
  4. Barker, with journalist Peter Fairley, launched a "Premonitions Bureau" in the *Evening Standard* to gather and log future predictions, scoring them for accuracy.
  5. Notable premonitions included Lorna Middleton's choking sensation and Alan Hensher's trembling, both linked to Aberfan; Hensher also predicted a plane crash in Cyprus and a train derailment at Charing Cross.
  6. The bureau received over 3,000 premonitions, but only about 3% were deemed accurate, and no disasters were averted.
  7. Barker died of a brain hemorrhage in 1968 at age 44, after Hensher warned him of danger; the bureau eventually wound down.

Summary:

The transcript details the 1966 Aberfan disaster, where a massive coal waste tip slid down a mountain in South Wales, burying a primary school and killing 144 people, mostly children. The village, dependent on the coal industry, had long been at risk, and the National Coal Board had ignored warnings about unstable piles, leading to a tribunal that called the tragedy preventable. Amid the grief, psychiatrist John Barker arrived, drawn by reports of a boy who died from fear.

He began collecting accounts of premonitions—dreams, visions, and physical sensations—from people like Lorna Middleton, a dance teacher who woke choking, and Alan Hensher, a switchboard operator who trembled with dread. Barker and journalist Peter Fairley launched a "Premonitions Bureau" in a London newspaper, inviting the public to submit predictions. Over a year, they logged thousands, with a few striking hits, such as Hensher's accurate vision of a plane crash in Cyprus and a train derailment at Charing Cross.

However, the bureau's success rate was low, and it failed to prevent any disasters. Barker, fascinated by the idea of fear-induced death, published his research but faced criticism. He died suddenly in 1968, and the project faded.

The transcript reflects on the human desire to foresee tragedy and the limits of such attempts, leaving the bureau's legacy as a curious, unfulfilled experiment.

FAQs

The Aberfan disaster occurred on October 21, 1966, when a coal waste pile collapsed and buried a primary school in the Welsh village of Aberfan, killing 144 people, including 116 children.

John Barker was a British psychiatrist who studied premonitions and fear's effects on the body. He collected cases of premonitions related to the Aberfan disaster and later established the Premonitions Bureau with journalist Peter Fairley.

The Premonitions Bureau was a project launched by John Barker and Peter Fairley in 1967 through the Evening Standard newspaper. It collected premonitions from the public, categorizing and scoring them to see if disasters could be predicted.

Lorna Middleton was a dance teacher in London who reported a choking sensation and foreboding on the morning of the Aberfan disaster. Alan Hensher was a switchboard operator who felt trembling and predicted a disaster. Both were considered credible premonition reporters by Barker.

Yes, some premonitions seemed accurate, such as Alan Hensher's prediction of a plane crash in Cyprus and Lorna Middleton's vision of a space tragedy. However, the overall hit rate was about 3%, and no disasters were averted.

John Barker died in August 1968 at age 44 from a brain hemorrhage. Before his death, Alan Hensher had warned him of danger, predicting a possible death, which unsettled Barker.

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