The path to Senate control runs through this state

Today we check in on Maine, where early voting has just begun. Kamala Harris won the state by seven percentage points in 2024, making it the most obvious potential pickup for Democrats in the Senate this cycle. But Susan Collins says not so fast. It's the MPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks, I cover voting. I'm Tamar Keith, I cover politics. And Maine Public's Chief Politics and Government Correspondence Steve Misler joins us from Brunswick. Hi, Steve. Hey, good to be with you. Great to have you. And I cannot wait to dig into what is becoming for me the most fascinating race in the country this year. I want to start with just the general state of affairs, first of all, because this is a race that looks very close. Basically, every poll has it neck and neck at this point. I'm wondering if you're surprised by that, considering the fact that the political environment is so favorable for Democrats right now. And as I mentioned, Kamala Harris won the state in 2024. Yeah, I'm not surprised to be honest, Miles, because this has been a race that I didn't really matter which Democratic candidate was the nominee. I think it was going to be a close race. I know that sometimes mystifies folks who are watching from afar. But I think the reason is that Senator Collins has been in the Senate for like 30 years. And over that time, she's built a reputation as being a moderate and sometimes even an independent. And, you know, in the other piece that she's built along with her seniority is being the head of the Senate Appropriations Committee. And in the last couple of cycles, I would say, that her ascension to that post, she's made a big deal about that. And I think it's paying off if you look at some of the polling we've seen in this contest so far, you can see where her ability to secure federal contracts and earmarks and that sort of thing, how that's really, you know, playing into her re-election bid now. And it's actually the central theme of her argument to be elected to a sixth term. It almost reminds me a little bit of how people talk about Texas where Democrats every cycle are like, we're going to take Texas this time where it's like we're going to beat Susan Collins this time. Yeah, but this is not Texas. This is actually a state that has gone blue. It's just that Susan Collins is, you know, this seat has been just out of reach for Democrats for such a long time. This race in particular, though, has been really topsy-turvy. You had a Democratic nominee who many voters were very excited about, especially Democratic voters, left-leaning voters, about Graham Platner. And then his campaign imploded with sexual assault and rape allegations, which he denies. And then Troy Jackson comes in and it's not the same. Steve, tell us a little bit about Troy Jackson, both kind of who he was in politics before this campaign and then also kind of how his, this whirlwind campaign that Tam described as going. Yeah, that's, it's really interesting because Troy Jackson has been in main politics for, well, since 1998. I mean, he basically got into politics because he led this blockade at the Canadian border, you know, and it was basically a labor dispute about Canadian loggers coming into the state. Troy Jackson is a logger and he felt like main loggers were at a disadvantage to this bonded labor program. And so that launched his political career and he's aligned himself with organized labor ever since and he became the main Senate president. But it's interesting. When you talk to Democratic voters now or since he's been the Senate nominee, people just don't know much about him, even though he was the Senate president for six years. I mean, voters just don't have a lot of sense of who he is. And I think that's been a difficult thing for him, especially in this compressed time period. He's been in the race for a little more than two months and he's trying to assemble this campaign. A campaign he never thought he would run. And, you know, he was running for governor just a couple of months prior to being drafted to be on the ballot for the, for the Senate race. So, you know, it's been difficult because while he's trying to build this campaign and get himself familiarized with federal issues, this multi-million dollar Republican machine hasn't missed a beat. And maybe there was like a pause and ads for a couple of weeks while they were trying to figure out how to attack him. But they figured it out. And so the problem is is that he's trying to introduce himself to voters while a Republican machine is trying to define him before he has a chance to do that. And that's really the story of his campaign so far. And this is how Jackson often talks about himself on the campaign trail is, you know, he just constantly is reminding people that this wasn't exactly what he had planned for himself. I didn't expect to be in this position, obviously. And what I've seen over the last year or so is, you know, people in Maine are doing something that I've never seen before. What is the thing that they're doing that he's never seen before, Steve? Well, he's referencing this energy that Platner helped build and tap into. And, you know, Troy has talked a lot about trying to do the same thing. But he also understands that he's again, a fundamentally different presenter and how difficult that is. So he tries to talk about this movement that Platner built. That's something that it doesn't matter who leads it. It's almost an acknowledgement that he's not going to be the charismatic presenter that Platner was. But that doesn't matter. And so it's really just about fighting for the issues. That's his message. Oh, and he's kind of put it this disadvantaged. As Tam mentioned, because it feels impossible not to compare his campaign style, his communication style to Platner. And the two just don't really measure up, right? Exactly. I mean, they're just fundamentally different communicators. Platner was, you know, he was, you know, very charismatic. He seemed to be able to talk about just about any issue without searching too much or at least, you know, navigate those issues in a way. And do it quickly. Troy Jackson just, you know, he takes some time to land on his point. And, you know, he has also has a different method of talking. I mean, the way he even says this, he says, I talk funny. He has a different main accent. And, you know, he's admitted this several times before. He's just saying, look, I didn't go all to the right schools. I don't have the right pedigree. You know, I'm just a rural main logger who got into politics over labor issues. And I just kept going because I wanted to fight for the working class. Yeah. I mean, it is a really good question. Is it about the man or is it about the movement? And is that movement transferable from one man to another? And, you know, talking to voters right after Platner had to withdraw from the campaign, there were some voters that were pretty ambivalent about him even dropping out of the race. They were not sure that he should have. They weren't sure that anyone would be able to replace what he created or what he had. And I think that what we're seeing with Jackson is some of that difficulty that rightly or wrongly Platner had been put on something of a pedestal in the minds of a lot of voters. And Troy Jackson just isn't that guy? This is a Senate race in a year where the balance of power hangs in the balance so narrowly. This is a race with all eyes on it. And then it's like, hey, Troy Jackson. Do you want to jump into those shoes? And to your point, Sam, I mean, you know, you think about when Platner launched his campaign. It was in August of last year. And so it took him that much time to get to build up this movement that you're referencing. And and Jackson's trying to do that in about two or three months really. And it's just it's hard for any kind of candidate to try to pull that off. And it's especially hard when you're trying to pick up where the last guy left off, which was this, you know, progressive fire brand who actually drew a lot of interest from independence. And, you know, they were actually a big factor in his primary victory before he had to get out of the race. It's a fundamentally different type of campaign. But Troy Jackson's trying to channel what's left of those vapors, I guess, against a electoral stalwart in Collins. Let's take a quick break. More on how Collins is running her campaign in just a moment. And we're back. Just a quick note here before we go on with the main Senate race. We're recording this just a couple hours before you as the listener will hear it because the news is always changing fast. So we try to get new episodes out as quickly as possible. And the best way to make sure you hear those episodes right when they're available is for you to follow the show wherever you listen. On Apple, that means looking for the big plus sign on the show page. And on Spotify and the MPR app, there's a big follow button that you can hit as well. You can do that and make sure you're always up to date with our latest episodes. Okay. So Steve, let's switch gears and talk a little bit more about Susan Collins, who is certainly a much more known entity among main voters. What has been her cell to those voters and trying to argue for why she should be elected to a sixth term? Yeah, I mean, it's really simple, Miles. I mean, she is campaigning almost exclusively on her ability to bring home federal dollars to the state. And I mean, it was her very first ad was about this project that it was a few years ago, but it was about a project in eSport main. I mean, there's about 1,000 people who live there, but that's the kind of campaign she's running. It's money for firehouses. I think she claims something like 40-something earmarks just to build firehouses in the state. It feels like it might be small bore, but for Collins, when you add up the sum of those parts, it's built basically a reputation where voters have to ask themself whether or not it's worth replacing her. And you can see this in the polling, too, where, I mean, the most recent poll that we've seen that was high quality was this New York time, CNAPOL, where a majority of voters want Democrats to control the U.S. Senate, but even stronger majority believes that Senator Collins would be better at bringing federal resources home than Choi Jackson. And I think those two findings show you something, and they maybe show you where the race is. And so I think voters in the state have to ask themselves that question, especially when you're talking about the Senate, which is an institution built on seniority. If you get rid of the Senator who's been here for three decades and replace him with a freshman, what does that mean for the state of Maine? And I think that's a question that Choi Jackson is trying to address. And it's certainly a question that Susan Collins wants in front of voters every single day. I will say that in the last week and a half or so, there's been an interesting development on this front out of Washington. Collins, obviously the chair of the powerful Senate appropriations committee, she has this significant role that she's campaigning on. Well, President Trump and the White House did what's called a recision, a pocket recision, where they said, yeah, yeah, Congress, you appropriated all of those funds, but actually almost a billion dollars of those funds, we're not going to spend the head of the Office of Management and Budget, the White House budget office has said that he sees congressional appropriations as a ceiling, not a floor. And essentially the White House doesn't have to spend money that it doesn't want to spend no matter what Congress says. So these were carefully negotiated bipartisan pieces of legislation that Susan Collins has a huge hand in and is campaigning on. And you know what, what Russell vote is saying is that Congress may have the article one constitutional power of the purse, but as he sees it, the president's power afforded to him an article two of the constitution is supreme. Collins put out a strongly worded statement saying she strongly disagrees with this White House move, but it's one of several things that the president and the White House have done in recent weeks that really undermine her campaign or her position. You can add to that the trade war with China. She seems to be frequently in the position of having to say, well, that's not what I voted for. That's not what I approved. You really nailed something, Tamara, because I think you mentioned the trade war. I mean, that's a pretty acute issue in Maine, especially as it relates to the trade war with Canada, which really put her in a bind. I mean, when those negotiations broke down between the two countries, Vice President JD Vance had a campaign visit here. Collins did not attend, by the way, but you know, and he was talking about Canada as a 51st state and how they've been unfair to the state of Maine. This is Maine's leading trade partner and Collins is very aware of that. She's the one who's been voting to stop these tariffs against Canada. It's been very interesting just to watch her try to navigate this dynamic. You also mentioned the recisions and the letters she sent opposing them. The counter to that from Democrats is, well, wait a second, you voted to put the budget director Russ Vote into this position and he didn't come here with any secrets about his view of resting congressional spending authority and putting it into the executive branch. But you know, once you start getting into those details, I don't know, it's hard for them, I think, to stick with voters to track all of those things. And Collins has kind of lived in that space, especially since 2020. That's what I'm wondering, just how effective has she been at being able to push this idea that she is somehow a check on Trump? Because I don't know, I think about immigration enforcement, to me, is a great example where I feel like a bunch of different times I've seen her come out vocally against different aspects of the way the Trump administration has done immigration enforcement. And yet she has voted multiple times in favor of the funding that actually allowed those enforcement efforts to go on. And so I guess I'm wondering how voters kind of perceive her relationship with Trump more broadly? You know, I think broadly speaking, the president is not popular in Maine. And even in a bunch of surveys, including the most recent one from the New York Times in Sienna, shows that an overwhelming majority of voters in this state want some sort of check on this president. Yet it just seems like they're looking somewhere else to find that check, not necessarily in Maine. You know what I mean? It's just, it's a fascinating dynamic. But I think, again, it ties back to Collins' seniority, her ability to talk about herself and her term as if it's indispensable. And I think that you're Marx and the federal funding are all a part of that, for sure. I mean, the fascinating thing here is that this race, a few months ago when we were talking about it, was widely seen as a possible flip opportunity for Democrats as they try to take control of the Senate. And now this one has moved down on the list. The expectations, you know, polls have it very close. Expectations are in a different place. And now a much more likely flip is North Carolina, for instance, or, you know, Texas or Alaska, Iowa, there's money being spent lots and lots of money being spent in much redder states where Democrats are actually more bullish about their chances, which is kind of crazy. It is crazy, though. I keep going back to 2020, right, where Joe Biden won Maine by like nine points in 2020 and Susan Collins won Maine by nine points in 2020. So I do feel like that gets to Steve's point of like, maybe we should not be surprised by anything we're seeing in Maine at this point. I do want to bring up one more thing before we go, Steve, is that there was this pro-publica story that came out related to Susan Collins position on the Senate appropriations committee. Can you explain what that reporting found? And then I think I'm hoping to get into whether we think this is going to matter or play a big role in the campaign. Yeah, sure, so the that story really centered on a defense contractor known as Navitech. It is a Hawaiian firm that just operates under a different name now. But in 2019, the CEO of that firm was looking for ways to support Collins's reelection in 2020. And the problem is is that as a federal contractor, a defense contractor doing such a thing is illegal. So Martin Cowell, the CEO, decided to create a shell LLC to route tens of thousands of dollars to a super PAC that was boosting Senator Collins' reelection campaign. And that super PAC is run by a gentleman who is also close to Susan Collins' husband, Tom Daffron, a former lobbyist. And so the story alleges that Martin Cowell, who is in federal prison right now, basically targeted a bunch of senators on the appropriations committee, including Senator Collins, for basically a pay to play scheme where he would donate money to their various reelection campaigns or not maybe not directly but through PACs or something else in return for government contracts. And so that story was pretty explosive because it was a very detailed and well reported. But also it seemed to threaten to do something that no other democratic talking point has been able to do against Senator Collins, which is pierce this sort of indispensable quality that she talks about as being the member of the appropriations committee. And showing it in a different light, it shows sure she can bring home earmarks for fire stations and libraries and that sort of thing. But who else benefits from that position? And that's the question that was raised by that story. And to your question as to whether or not that's penetrated the electorate, I think voters are curious, but we haven't seen any polling to get a good measurement of whether or not it's given them second thoughts about re-electing her in November. That's going to be really interesting to watch especially because we hear from voters all the time that this is the sort of thing that many voters kind of assume is already happening. Not to say not to say that it is, but I just think that like people's cynicism right now feels like it's at an all-time high. And so I guess when I saw the story, it was fascinating and I was also just interested to know if like, is this going to matter? Well Collins's campaign is acting like it does. You know, they they are really pushing back on this story. They've basically called it an election hit job to derail her re-election campaign, you know, saying that it's just offensive and you know, how dare they that sort of thing. And so they're taking it pretty seriously. They're pushing back any chance they'll get and basically saying that it's not telling the whole story and that these allegations were settled in 2021, but it's just fascinating to watch them push back on this because that's a rare thing. It's rare that the college campaign has had to defend themselves in this campaign or in prior campaigns. Okay, well, as I mentioned, voting is beginning today in Maine. Just curious for both your takes on kind of the things you're going to be watching over the next couple weeks. I am watching the money. I always have. I have a new hobby. It's looking up how much money is being spent on political ads. And according to ad impact, which is a firm that tracks advertising, the Republican advantage in this race from the time that Trey Jackson got into it until the election day is about $27 million at this point. The amount being spent in this race puts it at the fourth most expensive Senate race, though, in the country behind Ohio, Texas and Michigan. What about you, Steve? I mean, Trey Jackson was trying to get his footing. And yet he is facing this Republican ad machine where, you know, I watched a New Orleans Patriots game last weekend. And in a single commercial break, it was four ads, you know, attacking him to one like biographical ad that he was trying to put out to say who he is. And that's the struggle for him. And the other piece too is the the prevalence and the institutionalization of dark money, you know, a lot of that spending that Tam just mentioned in Maine is coming from dark money sources, completely untraceable for the most part. And there was a New York Times analysis pegged the dark money in this Maine Senate race at like 75 million. I think it was, it's surely much higher than that now. And that is very interesting too because I think both sides are doing this Republicans and Democrats. They're both increasingly relying on dark money to obscure their donors and that sort of thing. And it's something that I've watched with great interest because you always want to know why the why certain interest groups or corporations are backing a candidate and it's becoming harder and harder to figure out who they are much less figure out what they want in return for backing that candidate. At least not while people are still voting like you'll find out months later when they file their tax returns. But it's yeah, the transparency is not immediate. All right. And we should note that these candidates are going to get a lot of opportunities to define themselves in the next couple of weeks. There are four different debates scheduled in this race. All right. Maine Public's Chief Politics and Government Correspondent Steve Missler. Thanks for being with us. It was my pleasure. Come back tomorrow and join us for more. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. And thank you for listening to the MPR Politics Podcast.