The Only Equation You NEED to Know to Profit Sports Betting | Ep 1

And I think people underrate this skill. Because it can be used that anywhere from the just starting out $100 bank or all level to the level of the highest most successful gamblers in the world. Goldenpants 13 here. The most successful people in the world are the ones who best understand risk. The risk takers podcast is an attempt to document the lessons I've learned as a professional sports better, poker player, trader, overall risky person. My goal is to help listeners become smarter at gambling and smarter with risk in general. So you can apply these lessons, make a lot of money, and then come back and teach me a thing or two. I don't run ads so I'd appreciate it if you like, subscribe and share this with someone who might be interested. Last thing, I want you to please join the Goldenpants 13 Discord server link in the show notes. It's a free sports betting and DFS Discord server that blows any paid Discord server out of the water. You can safely unsubscribe from all your paid servers, join ours, and have access to higher quality picks, a more engaged community, and a ton of cool events. I hope to see you in there and let's get on with the show. There is only one equation you need to know to make money in sports betting. Money made sports betting equals skill times volume. What does that mean? Well, let's break down the two components of this equation and we can better understand what goes into the what drives money made sports betting. First let's define skill. I define skill as how good you are at finding value in sports betting, but this could apply to you trading, poker, whatever. What are some examples of skill sports betting modeling is one skill. That would be how accurately can you compile data and predict outcomes of sporting events, outcomes of a player's performance and sporting events, etc. How good are you at originating lines that are better than a sports book's line? Another example of skill is market reading. How well do you identify value in the market? This could be through quickly finding arbitrage opportunities or steam chasing. You see a line move in the market. Identify that line move was caused by some sharp betting, people who know what they're doing. You know, okay, at minus five, the Celtics are good bet because I saw the line move from minus five to minus six on a book where I know sharp betters bet. I'll take minus five at draft games. That's steam chasing. You're basically tailing good betters. I guess another example of market reading could honestly be tailing, finding and tailing good capers like your boy Goldenpants 13. And then the third skill, the third subset of skill is promo and bonus utilization. And I think people underrate this skill because it can be used anywhere from the just starting out $100 bankroll level to the level of the highest most successful gamblers in the world. If you read some of the stories of how professional gamblers have used loss rebates, for example, to make millions and millions of dollars, you would understand that per oh most bonus utilization comps. This is all part of your bottom line sports betting. So how well can you negotiate these bonuses? How well can you keep track of promos and everything? So that skill, I would say skill comes in modeling market reading and promo slash bonus expertise. Now what's volume? What are we multiplying the skill by? Volume is simple. How much money can you get down at good prices? There's two components of volume. The first one is quality out. What's a quality out? A quality out is simply a place where you can find good value bets that could be an account of prize picks and account of draft kings, et cetera. At first it's all just going to be your accounts, right? So how many good outs do you have? AKA outs that consistently have value to be bet and then funding. How big is your bankroll and how nimble are you with it? So an example of how funding is very important in determining your money made sports betting. If I have a 4% ROI and a thousand dollar bankroll and someone else has a 4% ROI and a million dollar bankroll, the person with the million dollar bankroll is going to make a lot more money. Be as they'll be able to bet more per bet and they're going to be able to return 4% on a much larger amount of money. Now I want to break down the quality outs for a second before moving on in the definitions because I think there are two skills, subskills of quality outs, right? One is preserving outs. That means you get more longevity out of a good account. So that could be, you know, let's say you have a draft kings account and you immediately go and you smash 10 grand onto some obscure prop and you got limited right away. Maybe your edge is so massive that's worth it, but it's probably not because if you mixed up your action a little bit, didn't take the obvious obvious short play where your action is going to stick out like a sore thumb. Yeah, you probably won't have as high of an ROI on that bet, but you're going to be able to bet a lot more over the course of that accounts lifetime to make it worth it to kind of disguise your action a little bit and not just come in and roast them on some bet they really don't want to take. Second skill of quality outs is getting new outs, right? So this is essentially like how many betting partners can you get? You start with the people you know and if you have good information, it's going to be very easy to have those people refer people. I wouldn't worry too much about this. I would just if you're in this in this stage, I would first learn the skill of preserving the outs, but really what you need to do is figure out where in your sports bending career are you and what do you need to focus on? I would say this. So do you want to focus on either volume or skill off the top of my head? If you're betting a smaller unit size, so this would be like a $500 unit size at a traditional sports book, or if you're not betting max at these DFS pick ups, it's like prize picks an underdog. I would say that most likely you need to still focus on your skill because you're not going to be scaring these these books with your action yet. So it's a good time to focus on your skill. To not maybe you're modeling your market reading, find a couple more promo opportunities. Now if you have been limited by a sports book, that's when you can start thinking about your volume. So that could be looking for a new out trying to think about how you might make accounts last longer, etc. But if you haven't been limited by a sports book, it's a very good assumption that you're still in the skill building stage. That the sports books tell you when you need to focus on volume. And I just wanted to give probably my two low-hanging fruits, so you leave this episode with at least a first step. So the lowest-hanging fruit and skill I can tell you is narrow your focus. You might be betting, you know, if you're someone who's betting every sport on the board, it's going to be very hard to have an advantage. We only focus on golf. Like we bet some other stuff, but most of it's for cover. We're really just focused on betting golf. And it does give me a lot of comfort to know that I'm spending 40 hours a week, minimum just thinking about golf betting. And for someone to do it better than me, they're probably going to have to spend it 80, because we've been doing it for a long time. We have our models and our systems in place. And it's just going to be very hard to beat us in golf better. Now if you want to do volume, let's say you've been limited by a sports book, right? The key to improving your volume is just get started with betting partners. So reach out to someone that you really think might be interested because your first betting partner, this isn't going to make them an income. They're going to live off of being your betting partner. Now however you want to set up the relationship, that's up to you. But it's good to find betting partners who are interested in sports betting interested in watching sports and having a little on the line because you want them to have multiple bottom lines on this experience. Bottom line one, you're going to make some money. Bottom line two, you're going to get a kick out of being the sports books watching these games. We've got some money on whatever. So find someone who follows that criteria. when you know well and someone that you're going to be able to experiment with. because this is going to be your first go round with having a betting partner, then go from there. So anyway, that's the sports betting equation, very simple. Skill times volume. Any questions you want to ask me just hop into the discord. I'm on there basically 24/7 and yeah, hope to see you in there. (upbeat music)