The Most INSANE Midterm Ads We’ve Seen So Far

- We brought him home to go to prison. And this won't even know what the upside of that is politically. - Nobody has a lower view of Republican voters than Republican consultants. - Welcome to Political Experts React, where we break down political ads in media, explain with the people behind the Martino accomplished, decide whether or not they did a good job. I'm Dan Pfeiffer, former communications director for Barack Obama and co-hosts of Ponset America. Joining me today is Tim Miller of the Bullwork, Tim, welcome to the show. - Hey, man, good to be back. - Good to have you, buddy. All right, we got a bunch of ads to look at this week. I wanna start with the latest ad that from far as I can tell, you and I paid for, run by our federal government on multiple college football games this past weekend. Let's take a look. - For me, last night on the order of the president of the United States, an in support of a request from the Department of Justice. - The United States military conducted an apprehension mission in Caracas, Venezuela to bring to justice two indicted persons Nicholas and Cecilia Maduro. - Nicholas Maduro had his chance until he didn't. He left around and he found out. - This is one of the most stunning, effective and powerful displays of American military might and competence in American history. - But I don't understand yet how they haven't figured this out. And now you don't know, and now you know. 'Cause this is the way it's gonna play out. And I think people need to understand it. This is not a president that just talks and does letters and press conferences. And you know, if he says he's serious about something, he means it. Don't play games. Don't play games with this president's in office because it's not gonna turn out well. - Now, this is one of a series of ads at the US federal government, his run. They look a lot like campaign ads. Trump did declare he was gonna pay for the ads going forward. This ad came out as far as I can tell. After he said that, it still says paid for by the US government. What do you think the intent of this ad is from a political perspective? - Well, six figures has been put on that. That's just, you know, paid for by us since he said he was gonna do it. I think the intent is to make Donald Trump happy and to make the principles feel cool. You know, you've got Marco quoting Biggie there. For example, in the video, and you have Pete Hanks that's trying to be tough. I think Donald Trump wants. And in some ways, he is so aberrant from all the other politicians we've ever worked for and ever known, but in this way, it's so similar. I mean, how many bosses did you have over the years that were like, if people just knew more about the good things I was doing, then my numbers would be better. Like this is just a little bit of that. Like where I think he wants, they've shaken down a lot of people for money in corrupt ways, borderline, you know, potentially legal ways in various ways, but they've got a ton of money in their mega accounts. But now this one's been paid for by the US government so they're shaking us down. And I think just Trump wants people to pat him on the back like he wants credit for what he feels like has gone well. And I just, that's just not how it works. - Yeah, this ad, I think it's added a couple of ways. It is, you and I both know Ken and it's like this who are obsessed with yard signs. And so it's the feel, you know, every campaign says yard signs don't vote. So what the field team does is they just put up yard signs in heavy demand in the candidates neighborhood and on the way to the office of the neighborhood. So they think on the drive home. - Yes, they always see the yard signs. There's a little bit like that, which is why these ads run on Fox News a lot. This has to be like a Trump-directed ad 'cause even if you were like Chris Lasavider and James Blair or whoever else, when they're not in, you know, working for a pro-Putin' party in Europe, and you were thinking like, okay, we're gonna break all the laws. We're gonna use federal government dollars to run ads that help elect Republican candidates. I just think the abduction of Nicholas Maduro would be so low on the list. - Yeah. - And this never even says why he was, like it presumes his knowledge about Venezuela and Maduro. It'd be one thing if they were like, you know, we're keeping all these drugs off the street and we're keeping cartels out. It just says this one guy who you may or may not know who is, who you have to recognize the beginning of the ad, fucked around with the United States and we took him, we brought him home to go to prison. I just don't even know what the upside of that is politically. - Yeah. I can imagine a world where I would understand what the point of this is, which is kind of like machismo, chess, something. We're awesome, the Dems are wimps, right? I just think it a different world where things were going better. You know, you can imagine this ad in 2018, the economy's going well, like Trump's trying to alpha dog. And it's like, look, and like, you know, this other stuff we've been doing, but also our fucking badass military just went into Venezuela and took out a commie. Like, I don't know, you would not really move votes, probably not, would that be like the top ad choice? Like you can understand, but in this environment, it's crazy. You know, Sarah just did a focus group, a book, a focus group of the other government paid ad in Florida, of Trump voters, that the group was people that voted for Trump that are disapproving of them now. And the responses were like, the people were disgusted talking about it. And I like this one from Eddie, in particular, he said, he's grabbing the best chapters from communist countries to apply here so everybody's distracted by this shit and he can do it every once. And like, that's what that is. It's kind of, it's like a cardio type ad trying to be like, you can trust the strong man. And I just, I don't think that is working right now. - And it works less well when you're losing a different war that everyone hates and race everyone's gas prices. - Great point. - Great point. It's like, this is another thing you weren't really worried about that we went and did. Well, the other thing, you know, we also fucked up massively in Iran and you're all paying for it. So it's, yeah. All right, I don't know if anything bad did that. - Yeah, that's, I think that gets us there. - If you like this video, and you like about Save America, I promise you you'll love Message Box, which is my substack newsletter, where I break down what's happening in politics, give you real analysis based on years of experience and data about what's happening in the midterms and actually help you understand where you can have the greatest impact, what campaigns matter, where to give money, how you can volunteer. If you want to sign up and I hope you do the links in the description. If you sign up now, you can get 20% off for a year. - Hots of America breaking news is brought to you by Zip Recruiter. Let's be honest, Zip Recruiter is everywhere. Why? Because top talent is everywhere too. Just like you, your ideal candidates are tuning into business sports and podcasts, just like this one. When these candidates hear all these ads, it increases the chances of them going to Zip Recruiter and responding to your job posts. So ultimately, you meet them sooner. Of course, you can't meet them unless you go to ziprecruiter.com/cricard to try it for free. Once you post your job, Zip Recruiter's matching technology finds top talent quickly. And Zip Recruiter has a new feature that shows you the most interested, qualified candidates first, so you meet them faster. No under four out of five employers who post on Zip Recruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. But you've got to go to ziprecruiter.com/cricard to post your job for free. Again, that ziprecruiter.com/cricard. Oh, and if you forget where to go, don't worry. You'll hear another Zip Recruiter ad soon enough. All right, now I want to look at two ads in the surprisingly competitive South Carolina Senate race. Annie Andrews isn't shy about her support for medical interventions like puberty blockers, hormones, and surgeries for minors. Annie Andrews supports males competing against female athletes. Annie Andrews calls abortion the health care and fights to keep it unrestricted. She's got my vote. Annie Andrews is for they, then, not for our values, not for South Carolina. And then we got that we're going to play the Andrews response to right now. Politics can get pretty ugly. And when it does, you deserve to hear the truth. My career as a pediatrician has always been about taking care of kids. And I've got three of my own. So I want you to hear me loud and clear. I don't support biological men playing women's sports. And I don't support and haven't ever performed gender surgery for minors. I'm Dr. Annie Andrews. And I approve this message because Darlene Graham lying about me won't do a thing to help you. We're seeing all across the country, Republicans run maybe more subtle, but not that much more subtle versions of this ad attacking Democrats on trans issues. It's a really big issue in Ohio, in Texas. So I want to get your sense of A, whether you think those attacks have currency in this election. And what do you think of Andrews' response to them? Yeah. Well, the first thing I was going to say about the Darlene Graham side of this is, nobody has a lower view of Republican voters than Republican consultants and politicians, like the idea that it's just such a clownish. And even the accent doesn't sound like a South Carolina accent. It's like this person. I mean, it sounds like a ganky pretending to do with some-- Yeah, that's right, I can't even figure that out. And so it's just like-- I mean, it's extremely insulting to even whatever, Southern evangelicals who have good faith have concerns about this, right? It's not even coming from that place. I think it has currency in a place like South Carolina because at this point, the undecided voters are like three-time Trump voters. I looked at a South Carolina one, the Nancy LaCore race at some of the internals. And I think she was-- she's a Democrat. This is Nancy Macy's district. She was up at two or three points. And the undecided voters-- it was crazy. It was like 91% Trump vote among the remaining undecideds. And so basically, the Republicans are trying to do here is try to find anything that will just keep their core voters from either staying home or flipping, in some cases. And so I think that's why you see them going to these core cultural issues. And I do think this is a place where ads can still work, which is basically trying to tamp down any sort of flow of persuasion from kind of reminding people like why there are Republicans in the first place a little bit. So I think that's kind of what's happening. I think that that is only going to be successful in the most red places. You can see it not working in Texas. I think it's tough in kind of places where the economy's going bad. It's just, it is, and this is at this point kind of a cliche take, but it's true, which is that the Trump they then add, like the second part of the ad was more important than the first, which was the Trump is for you parts. Right? Like the commas for they then on their own would not have been as compelling and they don't have the second part of that in their ads now. So that's my take on the first one. And I don't know. It's interesting. So let's start with the attack ad like I said, it's this is a comical version of ad. There are better versions of it. You see them in Ohio a lot. There's they've really been hammering share it on this and, but you know, and I think you're right that they're doing everything they can to make it so unpalatable for these Republicans to actually vote for a Democrat and remind them why they would not want to do that. I think it's going to be more successful like keeping these people from voting for Democrats and from skinning to stay home because with the reasons they why they are going to stay home have nothing to do with these other issues. And this is where I think they've, like you're exactly right about what, why did they then add work, but the other thing that they don't really understand is the other reason that they've worked was because the argument is common was focused on all this other stuff other than the thing you cared about. And what they're doing is focusing on all their ads are forcing all the stuff that you don't care about and so the thing you actually care about, which is the economy cost of living. And so they're at risk of that everywhere. I think, you know, there's lots of debates within the party about how you responded these ads and like what language you should use. But I think the one thing they give any Andrew's credit for here is she did it direct the camera herself, and she's very compelling as a candidate, and she's very compelling to camera. And so if you're going to do it, I think it's more effective in her doctor's code talking about being a mom to kids and it makes it harder when you see her saying that to think that she would do all these things that would endanger children in Ohio. We looked at some of these ads with Alex Wagner on the show a few weeks ago, Sherrod Brown has been running just around more traditional ad responding that just rebutts the facts of them and then pivots to the economy. I can understand why Sherrod Brown is not taking this on directly, but I think any Andrew's in her persona is right to just like, if you're going to win this race, you've got to go for it and you've got to put yourself out there and take some risks, and I think that's the way to do it. Yeah, she's a doctor, and it's South Carolina. I don't think she has any choice but to do it, you know, the question, I think the question is, you know, if you're an average person in Spartanburg that's unhappy about the Iran War and the Epstein files and the economy, but you voted for Trump three times on Lindsey Graham a couple times and you think Darleen's kind of stupid, does that do, does this do anything for you? I'm not sure. You know what I mean? Like, I just think that she still is a little bit, she's not Roy Cooper, you know what I mean? I don't know. There's something about this and now we're just figure skating judging and not talking about the merits of the very complicated issue, but like, I don't know, Roy Cooper or the Southern draw. You can imagine people looking at that and being like, he doesn't seem like the type of guy that does care about this. It's easier to be a man doing this, man. It's easier to be a man. And a Southern man with a Southern accent is always going to navigate these issues better. It's why they worked less well on Biden, although he did not have Southern accent, but an old white man is going to do better on these cultural issues than a black woman in 24. Sure. But you know, I think it's, you know, the thing that you point on, it's just like really interesting about all of these races, it really is. It's true in Texas too. That about nine and ten of the undecided voters are Trump voters, the vote for Trump multiple times. And the question is, do they vote for Democrats, which probably not, do they vote at all? Or do they vote for a third party candidate, which is an option in a lot of these races, which lowers the win number below 50 and makes it a lot easier for some of these Democrats to get there? Yeah, for sure. So I don't know. Look, this is a year. This is a Senate seat. You know, I mean, you're there a long time. It's worth taking a swing, I think, to not, it gets a silly thing to lose over, like, you know, I honestly, and because there are just so much, like, the importance of like, what could get done? And if it's such a wave here that, and I know we're about to talk about Kansas, like, that Adam Hamilton and Annie Andrews win, and the Democrats end up with whatever that would be, 55-56 Senate seats, like that has very meaningful results, you know, on God so many issues. You know, there's this big debate in the party about, like, where and how they spend money, and it's kind of a fake debate. There's not one person who controls the money who decides, like, it goes to the center of some other races. But there's this idea of, like, what house rates seats do you invest in because there's a bunch of them that we could win this year, and very likely to hand back to years later. Although when we did this in 2006, we actually kept them and added to it in 2008, so there's always possibility of two consecutive waves, but you're renting them. But if you can invest in a Senate seat, even if it's for one term, like it was with Doug Jones, or if you have any entries in Roger Marshall, those people will be senators if and when the next Democratic president comes in in 2029, right, like it fundamentally changes the odds of having a government trifecta in the next election, so that's why I gave money to them, that's why I hope other people give money to them, it's like, these are venture bets that are worth making because the upside is so high. I agree. That's why we're happy. I think, well, I'm happy breaking news right now. I'm having the entries that are live event in Columbia for the bulwark coming up. Oh, that's weak. This is a great place to break news. I like it. Perfect. All right, let's do our last ad, which is a new ad from the Senate majority pack in the Kansas Senate race. It was one of the worst child abuse scandals in history, dozens of young girls sexually trafficked by Jeffrey Epstein, drugged, molested, and raped, and Roger Marshall helped cover it up. Also voted to keep the Epstein files sealed, ignoring pleas from victims, and saying releasing the information was, quote, not of much interest to me. Roger Marshall used his office to protect pedophiles. He doesn't belong in the Senate, when Senate is responsible for the content of the sad. Senate majority pack has done a number of Epstein related ads in states. What do you, do you think that's an effective message? Do you think these are, it's a good ad? I'm very curious about this, its approach. I think going back to what you're just saying about kind of pushing people off to maybe a third party or something, you know, I do think again, we're talking, you're talking to Trump voters, and is there a way to get some category of them to look at Roger Marshall and be like, no, like I'm not, you know, I mean, I'm not going to vote for this guy who went along with the Iran War, it was part of the Epstein cover up, I think that that is worth a try in that race. I don't have the media mix in front of me. The Kansas race, I mean, apart, I can just because profile, and what we're talking about, and sexism of the electorate and all that, but like Adam Hamilton, that's not only a man, but a pastor, mega church pastor, I do, part of me in Kansas just once, like as much of him sounding normal and Christian as possible. And so like, I don't, and I'm sure the campaign's doing that, and a lot of times there's this breakdown, like when the campaign's done, it's doing the positive, it's doing the negative, but I do, you know, I do, I don't want money wasted because, you know, I don't want anyone out there who is just a regular Methodist Republican in Wichita, like not knowing Adam Hamilton fully by the end of this. Like that's, I guess the one like little caution I have on this, but I don't, I don't hate the Epstein idea, particularly thinking about who are the types of people that you're trying to push off. It's probably mega-ish Trump voters. Yeah. I guess I think you've hit on what is the argument for it, which is there's some number of Republicans who, one of their, the reasons are just in shame of a Trump is that he broke his promise on the Epstein files. Now you're tying Marshall to that increasing the likelihood they stay home. I mean, there are a lot, you know, there are a lot of Republicans who, they all have very large op-o-files, a lot of really bad votes, but Marshall is particularly in easy to, like there's plenty of really, really negative things you can do to Marshall, like the, you know, arresting women who have $50 medical debts is, you know, is one thing that's out there. Theoretically the Senate, majority of that could do, they could do positives, like they absolutely could, like that is possible. There was plenty of footage out there to use. There are ways for the campaign to put footage online that the Senate majority back could use. And they're, when you look at the Times poll, it actually shows that if Hamilton's name ID went up, he would be doing better in the poll because he's actually, there's a disproportionate number of the undecided who favored the Democrats on the generic ballot. Yep. So it like this is, this race is different because Roger Marshall says generic Republican no one really knows other than though they've learned the last few weeks. And developing. Yeah, you know, I mean, there's so many ads, like by this point in Iowa, you know, the types of persons going to vote in the midterm, maybe different if it's presidential, because the type of persons vote in the midterm like Nozoo Josh Turk is. Nozoo up to Laosayat as Nozoo shared proud as some of the things shared proud still the Senator. Like Adam Hilder, like the That was a late primary in a state that doesn't have a ton of advertising and he's got this great profile. So I would like to maximize that as much as possible. There is a libertarian in that Kansas race. And so again, is there something to be said for? Can you push, you know, can you cleave some of the kind of more mega populist Kansas Republicans who aren't going to vote for whatever a low pastor off to a libertarian by hammering up Stephen Iran? I assume the data shows that or else obviously data that because they ran a like a sort of a cookie cutter version of this ad against Susan Collins in Maine. Yeah. I think it's a little harder to convince people that Susan Collins is a, you know, is in the Epstein files basically, but they are, they are like, these are very smart people who are very data driven. So they obviously there is some, you know, maybe that maybe in the dividing of the electorate, what if their tasks is sort of mega suppression or like it gets back of voters to stay home and this could be the way of doing it. But it's like a very interesting approach because Epstein has fallen kind of out of the political conversation that we're in every day over the last year. Yeah. Right. Who said it's different Ohio? I mean, who said it took money from less western or Epstein at a house in Ohio? I do think they're different degrees where it like makes more sense up places than others. But the fact that they spend money in Kansas tickles me because, I mean, A, just because that's such a great sign for the midterms, but B, I mean, Hamilton is like the most bull-working Democrat candidate that we've had no longer. I love that. I'm just praying for him. I love Adam Hamilton. I interviewed him. I get me back to church for him to be with. He's great. He's one of those people you interview. And then you hear from all these people who know him, who tell you he really is awesome in real life in the room for him. I'm excited about him. Yeah. Same. All right. Tim Miller. Thanks for doing this. Do you want to fight for? Sounds good. A couple of weeks out. Good luck. All right. Three weeks to go. Stay sane. All right. We'll see you brother. [MUSIC PLAYING]