The Middle East Braces for Escalation

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Download the app today and use code Spotify to get $150 instantly in line-ups if you win your first $5 line-up. Price picks. Run your game. Hello, dear listeners. Welcome back to conflicted. I'm Thomas Small, and with me is Amin Dean. Hello, Amin, how are you? I'm still alive despite the attempts of so many people, but nonetheless, like in Amin, still alive. You're alive. You've been traveling, Amin, Hither and Zither, no doubt, gathering all sorts of interesting insider information, which I hope you can share with us today. We're going to talk about, well, the region, which I think it's safe to say is undergoing escalation at the moment. Yes, indeed. I mean, no matter what, every time we think that the region is going to experience some sort of a, you know, de-escalatory breathing space, we go back to square one. God help us, man. God help us. Well, I think that a lot of people, if they're like me, will be wondering what actually is going on in the region, because the reports are contradictory, and also the global media, it seems to me often, just doesn't really explain what's going on. Certainly not enough. We're going to discuss today the last couple of weeks in the region, what happened at the UN General Assembly meeting in New York. And I mean, behind the scenes, what the truth is about various things people might have heard about a secret meeting in Abu Dhabi with the Israelis and maybe even the Saudis. And of course, yesterday's shocking attempted terrorist attack on a fly Dubai airplane flying from Dubai to Tel Aviv. We're going to talk about all of this and more. Let's get right into it. Amen. Before we get into the detail, if you strip away all the noise this morning, you know, what we're recording this on Thursday, the first of October, if you strip away all the noise, who actually thinks they're winning in the region? Washington clearly seems to think that their economic squeeze is working. The Houthis are still putting up quite a fight in Yemen and from their own reporting, they seem to think they're winning. Iran, it certainly knows that it has survived so far, although I wonder if behind closed doors, they think they're winning at the moment. That would be interesting to know. Israel knows that Iran's nuclear program is not solved, and in fact Netanyahu is doing the rounds again, raising the alarm about the Iranian nuclear program, which usually is a harbinger of war. And the Saudis, going from a quite hesitant position throughout the summer to now quite a forceful public declaration that they are backing the Yemeni government determined to take back the whole of Yemen. So from the God's eye view of the region, Yemen, who's winning? Who's right about who's winning? At the moment, everything is in flux and there is no way to determine who is really winning or losing. However, however, I think the right question should be, are we heading towards escalation or de-escalation? Because in terms of winning or losing, it's not clear yet. But in terms of escalation or de-escalation, there are some important signs that we can take into account. For example, many people are asking me the question about what happened in the UN. And I tell people, it's not what happened during the UN sessions and bilateral talks and the Kushner and Whitkov meeting with the Iranian side. What really happened during the time? All of this is irrelevant. What is relevant is what happened after. It's the aftermath of the UN and the people positioning themselves, the nations, the forces that be in the region, how they are positioning themselves. And all of this is pointing towards again escalation. Why? Because the fundamentals for peace are still missing, Thomas. And what are these indications? Yeah, what are they? Let's start with the UN then. Give a brief overview about what happened during the UN so that the listener will understand the real story, which, as you say, is what happened after. I mean, there were hopes that the arrival of the Iranian president and the Iranian foreign minister would pave the way towards some reconciliation or some sort of revival of the MOU, the memorandum of utter misunderstanding. And that's like basically how I can summarize it. But for some reason, none of this materialized because the US downright rejected the Iranian proposal there. So the Iranians came with a seven-day plan, right? Basically assuming that the Americans would make the first move, so they demanded America, you do this list of concrete things. And then we will open Hormuz and then we'll start nuclear negotiations. Trump rejected this. Yes, at the rejection and for good reasons, Thomas, because the Israelis, when they came to New York, they presented the American side with damning evidence, damning intelligence evidence of renewed activities at Peacax Mountain in Iran that indicates some sort of a dash towards building a nuclear device. Now, no matter what you think of the Israelis, no matter what you think of the Americans, no matter what you think of false flags, the reality is that when I challenge everyone who tell me this, oh, I've heard this bullshit before. The question is, well, it is true. I have to say, amen. It is true. Let's just do that. Let's be fair to the other side. First of all, the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, says that it has no concrete information about what is happening at Peacax. Of course, it doesn't. It doesn't really have anyone there to verify anything. Because it's not an intelligence agency. It's a regulatory agency. And it's certainly true that satellite imagery, public satellite imagery, does show new construction there. Some kind of earthworks are going on there. But an Israeli election is coming up. Wouldn't it just be perfect timing? Handing Netanyahu, something on a platter, if the Iranian should have made big gains in reconstituting their nuclear program, it is all a little bit convenient for Netanyahu, isn't it? Of course. And that's exactly what the Iranians are also banking on. The fact that, they will say to everyone, well, this is all bullshit because Netanyahu is using the elections. Netrump is using the elections to whip up this war-mongering rhetoric. But there is a problem here. Every time I challenge someone back and I say, okay, forget all of this bullshit about, we are two weeks, three weeks, one month, two months away from a nuclear device. Do you have a doubt in your mind that the Iranians were always seeking a nuclear device? Of course not. They were. Of course not. They were. Okay, so we agree in principle that they are seeking a nuclear device. Now, after everything that happened over the past 15 months, since June 2025, until now, 15 months of on and off warfare, which has created significant damage for the Iranian economy, as well as an uprising that could have shaken the regime itself in January this year. I mean, significant damage indeed. According to the recent reporting, the Iranian economy contracted by 10 percent in the first quarter of this year. God knows how much it's contracted since. Exactly. Let's put it this way. I mean, we are now on our way to have the Croatian GDP in being bigger than the Iranian and that in itself saying something. Not to mention that the black market exchange rate for the Iranian Rial has hit the 2.5 million That's even higher than even you thought could ever happen so the economy there is really suffering. It's 2.57 as I'm looking at the screen right now. It's 2.57 million per dollar. So the reality is that the Iranians will be crazy not to seek a nuclear device now. In order to conduct a nuclear test and to say to everyone, "Fuck you, try to get me now." Now we talk on our terms. Now let me put it out for you. What if actually for once the boy who cried wolf so many times and I mean Netanyahu here, for once is actually telling the truth. And there is now a considerable body of opinion even within the GCC who believes that Netanyahu is telling the truth because we have to understand what happened after the U.N. General Assembly meeting. Okay, so what happened after? So during the meeting Iran goes to Trump. They offer him their seven day plan. He says no thanks on the side. Israeli intelligence agents are talking to American intelligence agents presenting their intelligence about renewed activity at Pickaxe Mountain. Other things go on of course because the Saudi Houthi situation was going on. People were talking about that. The Emirati Saudi rapprochement situation was still kind of going on. Lots of stuff was going on. What happened after? What happened after is that baby Netanyahu showed up in town and by town I mean Abu Dhabi. This was last weekend I think on Sunday, right? The Sunday past, yeah. Yes. Netanyahu showed up in Abu Dhabi. Of course there were some American military officials there also. He brought with him significant amount of intel to indicate not only the new clear program issue, but also what we discussed here before on the podcast, which is that Iran has activated its al-Qaeda allies, ISIS allies and other sleepers cells all across the region to carry out terror attacks. This is something we already talked about it here. Oh yes, many times, yeah. In fact, I think the last episode we did together, you highlighted this as a very real possibility. Certainly in one of our recent Q&As for members of the conflicted community, you went into some detail about the existence of a Sunni-ji had its network aligned with Iranian foreign policy aims. Exactly. Whether it's in Saudi Iran or in Yemen or in Somalia, in a throughout the Middle East, I spoke about it at length. Now, he also highlighted to them that the issue here is the fact that the Houthis are determined to take over all of Yemen, and now more than ever there has to be some unity among the anti-Iran alliance for the purpose of pushing back at this menacing threat, because even if the Houthis for now say that they will not target Israeli or American shipping, but you can't trust a terrorist organization, like the Houthi, to keep up their word when they have now taken control of the Babel Mandab Street, because the insurance industry do not care about the pledges of a terrorist organization, because they placed significant capability of cruise missiles, drones, rockets that could target the shipping industry in Babel Mandab. They took over the islands of Zagr, Haneesh, Mion, as well as the ports of Makha, and they already have the ports of Salif and Hadehda. So we cannot lower the insurance premiums, and that will apply to Saudi-shipping, as well as Israeli-shipping, American-shipping, British-shipping, European-shipping, Shani-shipping. So the Israelis are saying we cannot take their words. But Amin, can I ask, if you say the Israelis went to Abu Dhabi, partly, to try to bring some unity to the anti-Iranian anti-Houthi forces in the region, what about the American dimension there? Because since you and I last recorded an episode, American officials met secretly in Oman with Houthis, and the Americans got a concession, a promise from the Houthis, that they would not attack any American interests, but only focus on aggression against Saudi-shipping, and the Americans seemed to be okay with that. So, isn't it really also Donald Trump and the Americans that the Israelis need to be rallying around the anti-Houthi flag? Look, as far as the Americans were concerned, they were making sure that, you know, his Royal Highness, Crown Prince, Muhammad, Salman, don't get it easy. You know, you want us to help patch up things with the Emirates, because the Emirates were an important ally against the Houthis. They have the intel, they have the capability, they have military strength, that can be counted on, and their allies in Yemen are absolutely strong. You know, they are really important components of the anti-Houthi alliance in Saudi Yemen. Come on, guys, it's time to forget, like, it is basically the bloody Palestinian cause, and just like, I mean, focus on what is, it matters most here, which is your national security, Saudi national security. Let's just make sure everyone remembers a couple of weeks ago, quite, you know, I would say strongly, you outlined for us the confusions at the heart of Saudi foreign policy over the last period. You attributed it to the foreign minister, who was very Qatar aligned, and very anti-Israeli, and that that, in your view, had led to Saudi adopting this, confusing sort of position in which Iran was being treated rather lightly by Saudi, and Saudi was doing all this hedging. You know, that's one side of the story. Another thing you said is that at the beginning of Trump's second term, when the Americans launched an assault on the Houthis, MBS did not support that at all, and in fact, to some extent, put in place policies that actually prevented that anti-Houthi campaign from being as effective as it could be. So there's some bad blood between the Saudis and the Americans for all these reasons, and you're saying then that America's initially quite cool response to this escalation in Yemen over the last month. It's a payback. It was really just to put pressure on MBS to make him sweat a bit and remind him where his real interests lie, which is in essentially alignment with the Emirates who are in alignment with the United States and Israel. Yes, exactly. And at the end of the day, you know, you can go and get the Pakistanis to help you, but they are not a superpower. You can get the Turks to help you, but they are an opportunistic, you know, basically, you know, bizarre merchants, you know. So at the end of the day, who would actually come to your aid when necessary? You know, the Israelis because they have a skin in the game. Now that the Turks know the Pakistanis, how many skin in this game? So this is where, you know, the other attendants of this meeting will interest you. So we're back in Abu Dhabi now, over the weekend, the Israelis are there. Who else is at the meeting? The Saudis, they sent the head of the GIP, the General Intelligence Presidency Khalid Al-Hmedan. They sent also some senior in the military offices with him. The Kuwaitis were there because the Kuwaitis are now more than ever seriously considering joining the Abraham Accord. Wow, that's news, the Kuwaitis could. Yes, throughout the last six months, how much Kuwait, you know, received in terms of damage from the Iranian side? I'm from the Iraqi militia side. Considerable damage to their airports, to their water, the salination, to their power. I mean, they really were the receiving end of significant damage. Well, you would have thought maybe all of that damage would have convinced the Kuwaitis just to kind of cut ties with the Americans because that's kind of what it's about. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. The Kuwaitis know perfectly what the biggest enemy of theirs is the Iraq militias and the Iranians. If America were to leave just one second, Kuwait, Kuwait will be invaded the next day. We'll be invaded straight away. You know, a small nation with a hundred billion barrels of oil and a small nation. Do you think, like, in a basically, there was a five or a minute? No, of course not. I'm playing devil's advocate, Amen. I'm not going to work you up, but this is the point. The Kuwaitis know ultimately, you know, in whose bed they lie and it's the Americans and they don't want that to stop. First of all, do you know me? And you know, basically, how, you know, anti-Palestinian I am. Basically, I'm not pro-Israeli, but I am very anti-Palestinian. For lots of reasons throughout my entire life, like, in a basically from the Saddam invasion of Kuwait, the betrayals, everything, the assassinations, the hijacking of our airliners and the Gulf, all of that. So, for the Kuwaitis, who have been very pro-Palestinian for a very long time, but now they realize something. Because of the fact that Israel never fired a single bullet at, you know, Kuwait. And it is the Iranian regime and the Iraqi militias who fired thousands of, you know, rockets and missiles and drones at Kuwait. Kuwait's national security cannot be protected by empty slogans and a cause that is gathering far more dust, you know, unrest than the Titanic at the bottom of the ocean. Which is the Palestinian cause. And so, this is why they decided, you know, what, like, I mean, we will join it. So, the Bahrainis were there, the Kuwaitis were there, the Saudis were there, the Moroccans were there. And to, even to each one's surprise, like, I mean, Saddam Haftar, you know, the future strong man of Libya was there. We talked about Saddam Haftar in our recent episode on Libya. On Libya, yeah. So, he was there too, another Saddam. It's funny to think of a Saddam sitting there with the Kuwaitis. Exactly. With the Israelis. Oh, man, history rhymes, dear listeners. History rhymes. So the outcome of of that meeting became very clear. The Israelis, what they presented in terms of hard poor Intel on the Iranian intentions, whether on the nuclear side, the terrorism side, the sabotage of the GCC side, it is something that the American side seems to have concurred with because the American military officials were there too. And that resulted in, of course, the recommendation by Saudi intelligence that we need to patch up things with the Emirates ASAP because this is the last chance. Either we have an Israeli-American kind of total apathy where you are on your own, do whatever you want, and then Yemen will be completely lost to the Houthis, and then we will be biting, as they say in Arabic, the fingers of regret, as they say. Or we actually patch up things with the Emirates because the Emirates possess a weapon that the Saudis are extremely desperate for. Money. - Wow, okay. Explain this. Surely no one has more money than the Saudis, Amin. - No, basically the Saudis are now what we call incredibly asset rich, incredibly cash poor, and that's the reality, unfortunately, for the Saudis. The Saudis have some considerable cash reserves, something in the $440 billion, but if they draw any more dollars out of it, SMP, Fitch, and Moody will downgrade them immediately, and that will cause their debt cost to spiral, and that will not be good for them whatsoever. They are desperate to keep their rating at the moment. However, the Emirates have access to, you know, hundreds of billions of liquid cash that they could deploy. And so what made the Saudis reluctant to go to a full on-war bringing in the Pakistanis with them, bringing in, you know, other forces with them is hard cash, which they need. And so if the Emirates were to provide that cash, say anywhere between 10, 15, 20 billion US dollars, then that will not show up on the balance sheet of the Saudis as spending, it will not cause the rating agencies to freak out and to downgrade the Saudi rating, you know, in a haste, and that also would assure the rating agencies that the UAE's financial might will actually be on the side of the Saudis there. - And this is money that would basically be spent in Yemen to support Yemeni soldiers and such like? - Not only just the salaries, but also buying the loyalties of tribes, you know, buying them supplies, you know, shipments, you know, buying the necessary ammunition, all of these things. But also you have on the other side, the Israeli intel coming in. And also the Israelis, the Americans and the Emirates, they have security intelligence and military bases in Somali land that could be activated and could be incredibly useful. - They could be, although we know a Shabbar there waiting for the Houthis to tell them to attack, we're gonna take a quick break, aim in a quick commercial break, when we get back, I want you to dig a bit deeper into this, because if the Israelis have convinced the Emirates that they must patch up things with the Saudis, and if those Saudis who were present in that meeting in Abu Dhabi agreed, isn't there still the thorny issue of let's just speak truth to power here? Pride, because MBS and MBS have fallen out, it will require one or both of them to eat a big helping of humble pie if they're going to make amends. I want you to talk to the personal dynamic, the personal relationship, dimension of this problem, when we get back from this break, we'll be right back. (upbeat music) Tammy regularly hauled stuff to her kids at college. - Have you met my kids? - And with BJ's gas, she gets there for less. - They call me the road warrior. - This is your home, road warrior mom, home of the save. Join for just $20 at bj's.com/maskete and save 10 cents per gallon for six months, open soon, limited time offer, new members only. BJ's, home of the save. (upbeat music) - We're back, we're talking to Amin Dean about what's been going on in the region recently. Last weekend, Israelis, Emirates, Saudis, and others got around the table and Israel presented intelligence, which had the goal of cracking heads. Now you're saying, Amin, that the Saudis have really woken up and they realize we've got to work together with the Emirates again. But what about the personal relationships? MBS is not a humble man exactly. I'm not saying he's a holy bad man or anything, but he has Arabian pride. If I can put it that way, isn't it gonna be hard for him to eat the humble pie required to make amends with MBS and the Emirates? - Well, I think both sides are gonna eat humble pie. Both sides have to compromise on their differences and on their pride and ego. And they have to work together because the challenges are coming as them from all sides, from Iran, from the Iraqi militias and from Yemen, from the Houthis. - But what humble pie does MBS have to eat? It would seem to me that this rapprochement basically is giving the Emirates a chance to crow, to say we were right all along. - I don't think the Emirates are gonna gloat and I don't think the Saudis are gonna apologize. The two sides will agree to work together because I mean, there is no other choice. And you remember when I told you the most important weapon that the Emirates possess is money? Remember who actually went to Saudi Arabia to see MBS and his brother KBS, the Defense Minister? It was Sheikh Mansurban Zayed, apart from being the Vice President and the Minister of State for Cabaret Affairs. - Of the Emirates. - Of the Emirates. He is also the governor of the Central Bank. And you remember when I told you, it's all about money. (laughing) And that's why the Saudis are, not only just they need Emirati money, but they need also the Emirati capability on the ground in Yemen, and also they need the Israeli intelligence and potentially might be some covert, but strong covert military action by the Israelis in Saudi Yemen. - Okay, so what's the upshot of this then? We're still there at the weekend. You know, we've been in the weeds here now for about 10 minutes. What's the bird's eye view? - Well, the bird's eye view is like this, that what happened in the UN is the fact that the Iranians included in their seven-day plan, a complete cessation of hostilities in Yemen. And that whatever the Houthis gained in Yemen will remain theirs. In other words, they want to cement the status quo of the Houthis and by extension Iran. - Control of the Babel Mendeb, let's be honest. - Control of Abel Mendeb, yes. However, of course the Saudis are saying no. Now that the Americans are pleased that the Israelis and the Emirates and the Saudis, they're all talking to each other right now in a constructive way. And in addition to the fact that 30,000 Pakistani forces are now inside Arabia ready to join the Saudis in the military campaign in Yemen, along with the whole tank brigade, two air defense batteries in a from Pakistan, especially using the Chinese-made air defense systems. All of this now means that there is going to be a significant push by the Saudis towards crushing the Houthis. They're at least pushing them into losing Haudaida and surrounding them in Sanaa. - Okay, so you mentioned the Pakistanis. I'm glad you did that because I want to ask you how should we now understand the Mecca pact? On the surface, it seems that maybe Saudi, knowing that the Americans were putting pressure on it, may have worked towards this pact with Pakistan and Turkey in order to have some leverage of their own to get some concessions from the Americans, but nonetheless, as you say, I mean, I had 15,000 Pakistani personnel in my notes. You're saying over 30,000 Pakistanis are there. So the Mecca pact is kind of working. We've been a little bit soft on the Mecca pact, a little bit critical of it on the show, but the Pakistanis are actually coming to the table, are they? - Yes, but also the fact that the Americans are now going to lend a significant help in terms of ammunition and logistics is in itself reassuring to the Pakistani side. Remember, Field Marshal Al-Sahmanir don't want to piss off the Americans. So he will not do anything that will jeopardize his relationship with the United States, which is very important counterbalance against India. - I guess let's stick with Yemen for a second. You're saying-- - I know, it's complicated. - It's complicated. You're saying escalation is definitely on the way. The Saudis now bolstered by renewed cooperation with the Emirates, a more confident Pakistan because America seems to be playing ball are really gonna go all in. MBS has said so openly. He's aiming to take back control of the whole country. - Yes. - You're saying certainly Hodehda, certainly resting back, Babel Mendeb. What about the Houthis and their allies? Because you mentioned Somali land, fine. Israel and the Emirates have naval military installations there. They're ready to turn those on if necessary to defend Saudi interests and global interests in the Red Sea. A Shabab are not too far away. They have. relationships now with the IRGC and the Houthis and from all reports, they would be willing to attack those mainly Israeli installations in Somali land. So what are we going to see? Well, we will see some widening of the conflict. As Shabab, of course, like I mean, if they do a mistake like this, they will see American drones taking out their installations and their camps and their leaders one by one. And that's what's going to happen. So Shabab will be making a mistake if they were to intervene on the side of the Houthis. That's number one. Number two, the Houthis are experiencing a significant shortage of drones and ballistic missiles because they don't manufacture them locally. They bring the parts from Iran and then assemble them in Yemen. Now that the Houthis are under more siege and since the Eritreans are more or less being courted by the Saudis in order to cut the smuggling that is happening between Iran to Eritrea and from Eritrea to Yemen, the Houthis will experience a significant shortage of parts for missiles and for drones. It means if the war lasts another month or two against the Houthis, then they will feel the squeeze. That's the most important thing. And if the Pakistanis intervene, if the Emirates intervene, if there are covert very strong actions taken by the Israelis, wow, this will significantly weaken the Houthis because there will be a significant intelligence contribution coming from the Israelis to pinpoint the locations of leaders. That is Israeli specialty is to know where the Houthis leaders are. So the Saudis can go and take them out and that will weaken the command and control capability of the Houthis. One other dimension I want to talk about before we leave the Yemen Theater is the European dimension. So when America made it clear at the beginning of this recent escalation a month ago that they weren't going to come to the Saudis rescue in Yemen, France, and then following France, Britain kind of stepped up to the plate, if you like, and said we're going to help out. So what's the European dimension of the larger Iran war in general? I mean, has the Trump administration succeeded a little bit in cajoling its European NATO allies to contribute more to the effort, especially maybe as winter is approaching, as European energy dependence is going to become particularly difficult for all of the nation states of Europe. Is that part of the story at the moment? There are several things here really we have to take into account. The Europeans were aloof and low to react from the beginning because they were blaming the US. Like, oh, Iran is a side show. Russia is a bigger problem. Blah blah blah. Forgetting that, you know, Russia is now possessing the ability to bombard Ukraine every day. Thanks to Iran because Iran gave them the idea of the Shahid 136 and, you know, and gave them that tech to produce it a mass scale. So, but then the Europeans realized that, okay, Hormuz, we can stomach, but not bubble mandub. Bubble mandub is more than just energy. You see bubble mandub and the red sea. This is about 20% of the world's energy traffic go through it. 13% of the world overall maritime trade go through it. So they cannot afford it. They cannot afford the inflation that will cause, you know, especially with the higher insurance premiums that I was telling you about right now. No one trust, you know, the bubble mandub when it becomes so heavily militarized by the Houthis. The insurance industry don't give a damn about what promises, you know, the Houthis give to Trump or to anyone else. They care about the fact that it's becoming militarized. Therefore, we raise the insurance premiums. That will raise the prices in Europe. So now they are sending more intelligence, surveillance aircrafts. They are sending ammunitions. They are sending air defense systems to Saudi, both the French and the British. I'm aware that BA systems and the salt and BDA, you know, a talus, you know, Ryan Mattal from Germany, all of these are sending street loads of like, I mean, you know, um, ammunitions and defensive measures and offensive measures even to the Saudis for the purpose of fighting against the Houthis. No, they are not as passive as two months ago. You can tell, Ammun, that you've been living in a war zone again for several months because your language is becoming saltier and saltier. There was a time when you would have resisted using such language on this show, but you don't care anymore. You're just speaking as you, as you feel. Let's leave Ammun the Southern front in this wider Iran war and move to the Northern front. And I mean Iraq because something else that is happening really as we speak, American forces have now gone. That's it. I mean, it's kind of amazing that this should be happening now when you think maybe the presence of American forces in Iraq is more necessary than in a long time. No, no, no, they left. They left for a good reason. 23 and a half years late, but they left for a good reason because they left and they say, okay, there are no foreign forces anymore in Iraq. Why do you have 300,000 men, you know, taking orders from Iran and calling themselves their resistance, resisting what exactly? So they must disarm, they must disband or join the army and the security forces and be under the command of the Prime Minister of Iraq, Al-Zadi. That is the aim and the goal. And America doesn't want to be a just sitting there in Iraq being a sitting duck, you know, in order to take Iranian drones fired at them by Iraqi militias because you are the occupation. Okay, we are no longer there. So why are you still acting outside of the parameters of the state? And already we started to see some Iraqi militias deciding to not disband but to hand over heavy weapons, including drones and missiles, you know, to the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, which is, in my opinion, okay, good because they have no other choice. They know that they will be targets of airstrikes by either the US or the Saudis or anyone else who would use these missiles against neighboring countries. Okay, some of the militias have agreed to this disarmament timetable, fine. But most of the major pro-Iran factions in Iraq have rejected it. So it's a risk, isn't it? I understand the strategy. The Americans pull out giving the Iraqi Iran-backed militias no reason anymore to resist anything fine. But what if they just say, well, no. And what if this whole wider war includes something like a nascent Iraq civil war at the same time? That would be bad. What's going to happen, especially given the Saudi strategic problem that still remains. For them, it's a major two front war. Iraq to the north with its militias backed by Iran, the Houthis to the south. Look, there is clearly now an alliance of the nation states emerging with a regional nation states or global nation states that has now finally, finally, finally after quarter of a century recognized that the main problem of the Middle East are the non-state actors, the armed non-state actors like the Iraqi militias, the Houthis, Hizballah. And they need to be taken out in order for peace to exist properly in the region. And you cannot do that, you know, if these organizations continue to operate. So, yes, the Americans left because, first of all, there is no more strategic imperative for them to stay there. Let's be honest. Is there any compelling reason for America to stay in Iraq? No, there is nothing. So when they leave and the Iraqi militias decide to fire at Saudi Arabia again at the oil installations, they fire at Israel and fire on Kuwait, of course, what's going to happen? The Americans, the Kuwaitis and the Saudis will have every reason to go after them with significant strength. What will that mean? Of course, Iraqi army will have the reason to go and raid their camps, go after them, especially after they have been weakened by airstrikes. Of course, that could cause some sort of an entra in Iraqi fighting, but so be it because it's a chemotherapy. Iraq needs its ekemo therapy. Just like Lebanon is going through its chemotherapy. Just like Yemen is going through its chemotherapy to get rid of the cancer of the armed out of control non-state actors. Okay. I mean, you've been advocating this for years. It does seem finally that mine's already focusing on it, but that doesn't mean that it's going to succeed. Oh, no, of course not. I'm not naive. I'm not naive. Let's be honest. The Houthis are well entrenched. The Iraqi militias, they are strong. The Shia majority, especially there in the heartland of southern Iraq, is strong. It's not going to be easy. I understand. Well, I understand, but my dear friend, if they tell you you have a stage 4 cancer, you have a big tumor there. Do you just decide to go to bed, lie down and take it or do you fight it with chemo and everything, like basically you could throw at it, you have to. You have no other choice or you will die. Any country that is now hosting non-state actors supported by Iran, like what's happening in Lebanon or in Iraq or in Yemen, they will die eventually if they don't use the chemotherapy necessary in order to get rid of these cancerous tumors. Or death will be like, I mean the ultimate. ending of these countries. So unfortunately, we have no other choice. Yes, it might not work, but the alternative is worse. Well, let's game plan how it might not work, or at least where Iran really sits at the moment. And that forces us to talk a little bit about the straight of Hormuz. You hear, again, conflicting reporting about this. It seems that the straight is not open, certainly not open, but it does seem accessible with American military support with Emirati and Saudi logistical genius that oil is getting through the southern route. The Iranian seem unable to counter this very much, at least in the waters of the strait itself, although we've got to talk about what happened yesterday with the fly Dubai airplane. But what about the straight of Hormuz, how should the dear listeners understand what's going on right now there? Well, first of all, do you remember the strikes that were taking place in July and August? Oh, yes, you told us about that in a previous episode. So we know that the Americans were paving the way to neutralize the full Iranian threat against shipping in the strait. Exactly. Let's say that Iran got something like 80 eyes at that time. So do you remember the movie in 2007, The Simpsons? Oh, yes, I liked that movie very much. Exactly. It was brilliant. Do you remember when they realized that Lake Springfield in a was polluted and there were weird creatures there because of the pollution? And there was a creature that looks like a frog, but a fish. And also it had so many eyes, like 20 eyes. And then Bart Simpson took, where are you going with this? I will tell you. So Bart Simpson took, you know, I stick and he was jabbing the eyes of the of that creature, you know, one after another, like in a with the stick in a jab, jab, jab, jab, jab. I still remember like that scene. That Bart Simpson was the US and that creature was Iran, you know, and it lost 90% of his eyes in a because of the jabbing. That's what was taking place in July and August. So now another thing happened in the UN, again, happened in the UN, which had significant ramification for Iran. The Iranians when they attack in the past, they used to have their eyes, but they in most of their eyes were jabbed by Bart U.S. Simpson. So they use also a lot of Chinese tech when it comes to navigation. Mysteriously, after the very lovey-dovey meeting between President Xi and President Trump in the US, for some reason, the information I got is that the Iranian access to that Chinese navigation tech was switched off. And in one night, the Iranians fired 19 missiles targeting shipping in the state of Hormuz, and they failed to hit even one. So later, they switched to Russian one, and they managed to hit two in the subsequent days, including yesterday. But what I'm saying here is that something happened, something switched from the Chinese side, which encouraged the Emirates and the Saudis and others to think that China is coming back to its senses. China got something out of the U.S., which, you know, might have explained, you know, them scaling back some of their tech help and support for the Iranians. So that's one thing. That is coupled with the fact that over the past 14 days, Scott Besant, who, in my opinion, did far more damage than any other in a U.S. politician. This is the U.S. Treasury Secretary. Exactly. He did far more damage to the Iranian regime than any other American politician in living memory here. I mean, seriously, he decided that Iranian aircrafts cannot fly anymore, civilian aircrafts, like in, I mean, flying to Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, wherever. That also, like in, I mean, caused the Iranian significant damage to their morale, because that's how they transport cash from Turkey, from Iraq, from other places. That's how they transport other materials, you know, in the cargo of these civilian aircrafts, so they cannot be shot down. So what happened is that's when the threats coming, especially by Mohsen Rizahi, who is the, you know, the new Ali Shamkhani National Security Adviser of Iran, and the representative of Aytullah Mushtab al-Khamenei on the National Security Council, he said that if we can't fly, no one else will. And since they are already frustrated with the straight. Exactly. So Aiman, let's talk about the fly Dubai flight yesterday. It took off from Dubai. What happened next? You know, initially, I mean, there were lots of reports flying around. Well, that's a nature. It was a flight. So the reports will be flying too. But we didn't know what happened. It seems that it was, you know, a terrorist attack carried out by an al-Mani national. I suppose working alongside IRGC interests. And he was the copilot or he was the pilot and he stabbed the copilot. What happened? Well, all I know so far, and I did my best like I had to get as much info as possible, like in a from sources. But of course, like in a, I mean, lots of people are tight, lipped right now. But near the Saudi Jordanian airspace, the copilot, who's an Aiman in national, working for less than a year with fly Dubai, and who was not supposed to be on the flight in the first place, because Aiman do not possess bilateral relations with Israel and the agreement between Emirati Airlines and the Israeli Aviation Authority is that only pilots and crew from countries that actually possess bilateral relations between Israel and their countries can fly. So that was odd choice of a copilot. The pilot was an Indian and there were already two other pilots sitting, you know, in the passenger seats because they were supposed to be the pilots who relieve the two pilots once they relieve their, you know, and they they will fly back. So so there were four pilots in the cockpit? No, two pilots in the cockpit, two other pilots were just like in a basically in the, you know, as passengers, they were flying because they will become the pilots on the return journey. Now, the cockpit is closed. There are only two pilots inside the pilot in the copilot. And the Amani pilot took out a pocket knife, a proper pocket knife and started stabbing the Indian pilots in order to take control, you know, of the aircraft. He started shouting, 'Allah Akbar' and started, like, I mean, to divert from the Jordanian airspace back into Saudi airspace was heading towards possibly Niyom. No one knows, but the trajectory was going towards Niyom. It was weird. Why is he going there? And at the same time, like, I mean, of course, the, in a while that guy was busy trying to bring down the airplane, like, it descended something like 17,000 feet in one minute. Well, yeah. So was it, was it heading towards anywhere in particular? I don't know. Was it just basically just rocketing downward? I, I saw a photograph of it once it landed safely in the, the tail of the, of the airplane had been semi-ripped off from the force of the, exactly, of the descent. So I, I think it was heading straight down. You know, I think it was ripped off from the force of trying to stabilize it from that dive. And that's why, you know, the tail was damaged. It's not damaged because of the descent here. I mean, it seems to me that the terrorist attack had this in mind. This homani guy was going to take over the plane by killing the, his Indian co-pilot and then simply fly the plane into the ground killing the majority Israeli passengers on the plane as a kind of, you know, terrorist extravaganza. Well, yeah, it will be an attack against, you know, three countries. It's a, an Emirati plane crashing in Saudi territory with Israeli passengers, you know, it's an attack against Israel Saudi and the UAE all at the same time. Just days after Mohsen Rizad, he said, you know, if we don't fly, no one will fly, you know, the national security advisor of Iran. So now, the reality is that the, the Indian, you know, pilot managed to crawl and open the cockpit door and said help. And this is when, of course, the other guy was so busy trying to, you know, to crush the plane. So he wasn't noticing. And so this is when, you know, Israeli guys, of course, all of them are IDF, like, because Israeli civilians, like, you know, basically, all of them serve in the military. So they are trained. So they went and they tackled the, and of course, the other, you know, pilots, you know, from the fly to bay, who were off duty, like, I mean, basically went in and helped, like, I mean, stabilize the plane and land. Now, they heard the guy shouting, "Allahu Akbar, all the time trying to bring down the plane." So it is clear, like, I mean, he had a jihadi intention. The question is, was it an IRGC jihadi intention, or al-Qaeda slash ISIS jihadi intention, in my opinion, it doesn't matter, because what we said before here about the fact that there is solid intelligence that al-Qaeda received significant amount of money from the IRGC in Iran to activate their cells for the purpose of creating terrorism back. And we talked about it, you and I, in details. You know, and of course, now he is under arrest, the Amani pilot, he's under arrest by Saudi authorities. The early indications is that, you know, it was intentional, it was designed, you know, to cause the maximum terror casualties. And so, significance and symbolism, you know, against the three countries. So there was no question. It was going to be a terrorist attack. Now, the question is, all of this happening. Don't forget at the backdrop of the potential terror attack that was supposed to take place at Fairfield Base in the UK. Ah, absolutely. So what's going on there, Aiman? I mean, that's an IRGC-backed thing, surely. Yes, because Andy Burnham already, the Prime Minister, indicated that it was ironrelated, just hilarious, because you had that photograph of the British Foreign Minister at Milliband shaking hands with a roggy, the Foreign Minister of Iran, just a few days ago in New York. My goodness. It is, it is time for all the world leaders to designate the entire Iranian government as a terrorist organization and just stop, because you can't say, oh, I am meeting, you know, al-Qaeda, foreign minister, I am meeting ISIS, you know, basically, like an ambassador. It's enough. Enough is enough. Come on. Enough is enough. You know, for how long, like, basically, you know, it's like the Iranian terrorist, you know, backed attacks, attacks, like, basically, like, I mean, the sheet we could, like, basically, like, stretch it for a kilometer now. Yeah. So enough is enough. Okay. We have to put an end to it. Well, Aiman, we've got to bring this episode to an end. Yes. I think it was all a bit confused and chaotic and conflicted and conflicted. That's what this podcast is about, my dear friend. What is that a sign of what's really happening? I mean, the fog of war, it's beyond that. How are people supposed to make sense of what's happening at the moment? Is it really the case that a genuine global coalition of American allies, sovereign nation states that fall within the American security network are finally coming together within the Middle East region within Europe? And even China is realizing that whatever long-term ambitions it may have to weaken that American world order to strengthen its own claims in East Asia, et cetera, at the moment, even its interests lie in this Iranian situation being dealt with. Are we seeing something actually emerging that's really going to succeed at destroying the Iranian regime and putting things back on something like a stable footing? Or is it still just tap dancing while the world burns? What's really going on? Unfortunately, for as long as we tap dance, there is nothing going to work. And you see, this is the problem. Like, I mean, it's the fact that, you know, with this fog of war around us, like, basically, the only phrase we can always, like, I mean, recall is, what the fog? I mean, seriously, like, I mean, how do we deal with it? Because sovereign nation states around the world should realize by now that, for as long as this regime is allowed to survive, there will be no peace. We will always see more of light-to-by situation. We'll always see, you know, maritime incidents. We'll always see more fair fields, you know, than we could look in account in the future. Even, by the way, you know, the Iranian regime has a vindictive, vengeful mentality. They will, you know, keep taking revenge years and years after you decide to settle with it. Because they will say, oh, we are just settling all debts. Yeah, but we made an agreement. We are supposed to be, you know, friends right now, friends. Who said we are friends with anyone? I mean, they will deal the hands of a death by a thousand cuts to everyone who deltaed that hand before. So that's why if the world order, which is in Tatars already, but if the world order could actually give itself some longevity, some relative longevity, it should consider that the Iranian regime is a tumor that need to be amputated. Okay. Well, I don't know. We'll see what's going to happen. Yeah. Thank you very much, Aiman, for this update. There's nothing more to say. The world remains crazy, crazy, crazy. Absolutely. Sometime I feel was this an update or a down date? It's a down date. I think it was a down date, although, you know, at least the Emirates and the Saudis, they might be playing, you know, friendly again, you know, the process of normalization with Israel, as you say, Kuwait, it seems soon we'll join the Abraham Accords, maybe Saudi, you know, De facto already receiving lots of security and intelligence help indirectly from the Israelis. So it may be that, yeah, you know, an actual normalization is occurring before a formal normalization is occurring. Yeah. Is that good? Who knows? Is this going to benefit Benjamin Netanyahu in his attempts to remain prime minister of Israel? Who knows? It does seem that the American, that the Republican party in America is going to be wiped out in the midterms. Maybe that will mean that Trump feels even less like he needs to find any kind of legislative support for anything. He does, and he might just continue to kind of move America on that imperial trajectory. Or the Democrats will throw him in prison. Oh, who knows what's going to happen? And that will cause the Civil War in America, you be. Hey, hey, hey, and dear listeners, we will be here to walk you through this continued downward spiral as we return to the Middle Ages. With that very positive ending, take care, everyone. Take care, everyone. Stay safe. Conflicted is a message-heard production. Our executive producers are Jake Warren and Max Warren. This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small. Hank joined BJ's wholesale club the day he became a father of 30. I coach football. Now Coach Hank saves up to 25% off grocery store prices, 30 pounds of pasta, three cases of protein bars, 75 sports drinks, and that's just pregame. He knows teamwork, and BJ's knows savings. This is your home coach, home of the save. Open soon, limited time offer new members only. Traditional home security only alert you after a break-in, and that's too late. Stop. This is simply safe. Police are on the way. We don't just alert. 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