Speaker 1I think there are a lot of people who do not like what I'm saying. I am one of the most polarizing figures in the world right now, but I'm trying to prepare everyone. And what I want to explain to you today, Stephen, is why the world is collapsing. Because having studied patterns of history and global supply chains, I now recognize that I have a framework to predict the future. And I brought to you three, four, five predictions structured around 9-11.
Speaker 2So what are your predictions? I've been dying to know.
Speaker 1My first prediction, if there is another 9-11 attack, it will be an attack on the U.S. financial infrastructure. Imagine one day you open your iPhone and you're looking to buy a coffee and all the money in your bank account has been wiped out and they don't know when or how long it will take them to retrieve it. I believe that's what makes Americans most vulnerable and therefore the most easily traumatized.
Speaker 2What's prediction number two?
Speaker 1Is that Lionel Messi will become president of Argentina.
Speaker 2Oh, wow. I wasn't expecting that. And also, do you think Trump is going to have a third term?
Speaker 1Let's take a friendly bet and say $100.
Speaker 2Trump gets a third term. There'll be a siege of New York City. Prediction three.
Speaker 1My third prediction is that...
Speaker 2Are you sure? You don't think that the U.S. will actually do that very well?
Speaker 1Well, I understand a lot of this is going to be extremely pessimistic, but we are living in a time of not just war, but also the regression of civilization. We've basically hit the height of technological advancement.
Speaker 2The word collapse you used there is a strong word.
Speaker 1Yes, I am positive that we are seeing the collapse of civilization. All the suffering that we might have seen on television, it is coming to us in our lives. And the world is essentially running out of time. And I will paint a clear and simple picture of what is about to come.
Speaker 2What would have to be the case for none of these sort of catastrophic things to take place?
Speaker 1Well, the only thing that gives me hope is...
Speaker 2Guys, I've got a favor to ask before this episode begins. The algorithm, if you follow a show, will deliver you the best episodes from that show very prominently in your feed. So when we have our best episodes, the best episodes on this show, the most shared episodes, the most rated episodes, I would love you to know. And the simple way for you to know that is to hit that follow button. But also, it's the simple, easy, free thing that you can do to help us make this show better. And I would be hugely grateful if you could take a minute on the app you're listening to this on right now and hit that follow button. Thank you so, so, so much. Professor Cheung, what is front of mind for you at the moment? Your energy is giving me some things on my mind. What is that?
Speaker 1I think that we are living in a time when the world is collapsing. And so what I want to explain to you today, Stephen, is how we got to the world that we are in and why it is collapsing. So first thing I want to explain to you, is the petrodollar system, which is the basis for the global economy. So let's go back to the year 1945. And this is the end of World War II. And the United States is dominant. The United States will manufacture goods for Europe and for Japan, which were destroyed in World War II. So what the United States said is, we will lend you the U.S. dollars in order to protect you. We will purchase the goods that we will export to you. But you have to promise to pay us back in gold. And the United States became complacent. They were spending money they shouldn't have been spending. The United States went from a creditor nation to a debtor nation. So in the year 1971, Richard Nixon said that the U.S. dollar would no longer be pegged to the gold. And so the question now was, if the U.S. dollar is no longer pegged to gold, then what is the value of the U.S. dollar? So Richard Nixon had to create demand for the U.S. dollar. And so three things happened after something called the Nixon shock, 1971 Nixon shock. So the first was the creation of the petrodollar. So Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East agreed to sell their oil only in U.S. dollars. So Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East agreed to sell their oil only in U.S. dollars. So Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East agreed to sell their oil only in U.S. dollars. So Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East agreed to sell their oil only in U.S. dollars. So if you want to buy oil, energy, you need U.S. dollars. Late 70s, early 80s, China said the same thing. If you want our cheap manufactured goods, you have to pay in U.S. dollars. Mid 80s was something called the Placid Accord, where Japan agreed to take all its savings and buy U.S. treasuries.
Speaker 2So it's essentially they're buying a promise from the U.S.?
Speaker 1All this is based on promises, right? The U.S. dollar is a contract. It's a promise. China promises to give you manufactured goods and Saudi Arabia promises to give you oil. This system, the petrodollar system, create the world that we live in today. So let me explain why. All right. So this... This is a semiconductor, right? And it's a basis of all technology, of all computer. And there are three critical elements in a semiconductor. Silicon, they are gallium, and they are germanium, okay? There are many more elements, but these are the three most critical. And these three together allow semiconductors to achieve almost impossible technology. For example, precision missiles, satellite communication, are all based on these three elements working together. Why we have these three elements in place is because of this global system. Because silicon is mainly manufactured in China. About 60-70% of the world's silicon comes from China. 70% of gallium comes from China. 90% of the world's germanium comes from China. Now, for semiconductors to work, the process is this. The United States, mainly in California, NVIDIA or Apple, they will design very advanced semiconductor chips to power the iPhone, to power video games. Then the United States will send these semiconductors to the United States. And they will send them to the United States. And they will send them to the United States. And they will send them to the United States. And they will send them to the United States. And they will send them to the United States. And they will send them to the United States. And they will send this chip design over to Taiwan and Malaysia for the manufacture of these chips. The Netherlands and Japan will create machines to print out these semiconductors. So a company in the Netherlands called ASML, they manufacture lithography machines that are worth $400 million each. Then these lithography machines and the chip design go to Taiwan, primarily Taiwan, but also Malaysia, in order to manufacture these chips. And then these chips are then sent to China to be put into appliances. So when you see this semiconductor, you're not just seeing a piece of metal and plastic. You're really seeing the world converging together. So I want you to remember this formula. And this will help us explain how the world works. This formula is very simple. Technological progress. Technological progress. It's correlated with specialization times globalization. This is the formula. So it's very simple. All technological progress is premised on more countries being able to specialize and these countries being able to trade freely with each other. And what makes this all possible is global trade. That is supported by two things. The first, of course, is the U.S. dollar. The second thing that's most important is is the U.S. military hegemony. Hegemony meaning? Meaning there are no peer competitor. There is no one who can challenge the United States in control of the seas.
Speaker 2So you're coming now to the point of why you think, because the claim at the top was that the world is collapsing. Exactly.
Speaker 1I bring this all up because we need to appreciate what technological innovation is. If technological innovation is specialized, specialization times globalization, then we are living in a time of not just war, but also the regression of civilization. So in other words, my argument to you today is we've basically hit the apex, the height of technological advancement. We cannot go any further because in order for technology to progress, you need greater specialization and you need greater globalization. But what we're seeing right now is this war in Iran, it will cause a chain of events that will force all nations to become much more general. So you'll see a decline in specialization and it'll become much more nationalistic. They will need to create self-sufficient supply chains. So you will see a decline in globalization and therefore technology, the progress will have to decline.
Speaker 2The word collapse you use though is a strong word. Yes.
Speaker 1Is that the word you meant? That's exactly right. the word I meant. We are living not through World War III. We're not living through a shifting of the global order. We are, we will live through for the next 20 years, the collapse of civilization itself. The collapse of civilization itself? Yes. Are you sure? I am positive that we are seeing the collapse of civilization. Give me some definition around the collapse of civilization,
Speaker 2because people could infer that as, oh, you know, the dollar's not going to be as strong, or they could say, okay, we're not going to innovate as much, or I don't know if your prices
Speaker 1are going to go up, but the collapse of civilization. Yes. So let's go back to World War II. Okay. In World War II, if you lived in Europe or Asia, it really seemed like the end of the world. Tens of millions of people died in that war. But at the same time, you had a superpower that was emergent. The United States of America. So at the end of World War II, America was so powerful that it was able at the end of World War II to create a new world order and basically finance and defend this new world order called Pax Americana. And we are seeing the last days of Pax Americana. And then you ask yourself, well, then let China emerge, or maybe Russia will emerge, or maybe Israel will emerge. And then you ask yourself, well, then let China emerge, or maybe Russia will emerge to replace Pax Americana. And unfortunately, what we know is that systems in decline, empires in decline do not go willingly. Okay. So the historical analogy I would use is the Bronze Age collapse. Because the Bronze Age was very similar to this period in our history when the entire world was globalized. Because in order to make bronze, you needed both copper and tin. And these places were found in different places all over the world. And that allowed for global integration. But because of global integration, over time, that led to massive inequality, debt, and polarization. And so when the system collapsed, the entire world collapsed. So I would argue the closest historical analogy that we have to today is a Bronze Age collapse.
Speaker 2What was life like in the Bronze Age? Bronze Age collapse. So how was it different pre-Bronze Age collapse versus post-Bronze Age collapse?
Speaker 1So during the Bronze Age collapse, what happened was there was a perfect series of crises that caused systematic collapse. Okay. The first was change in weather patterns, climate change, which led to famine, primarily in Europe. Okay. We have famine, and people are starving. What do people do? They migrate. Okay. They migrate to areas that have food. And this place is primarily going to be Anatolia and Egypt. These migrants overwhelm the systems of Egypt and Anatolia. And this would cause a cascading effect where the entire world these migrants were called the Sea Peoples. And they were destroying traditional hierarchies and authorities. And once that happened, then the very fundamental elements of civilization disappeared. So if we apply this analogy to today, then I'm going to paint for you a scenario of what might happen. All right. So we have this war in the Middle East that is only expanding. It's bringing in more and more countries. So as you may know, since we last spoke, basically all of Iran's proxies have been brought into the war. This includes the Houthis, which occupies this part of Yemen.
Speaker 2So the Houthis are a group of military that are in favor of Iran?
Speaker 1The Houthis are an ethnic group in Yemen. And Yemen is a country that is divided according to tribes. The fame of the Houthis is that they are a group of ethnic groups that are in favor of Iran. First of all, they live in the mountains. So it's almost impossible to dislodge the Houthis. So it would be a tribe for five years. It didn't work. The other thing about the Houthis is they are a Shia tribe people. Now, they're Shia Muslim and they're Sunni Muslim. The vast majority of Muslim in the world are Sunni, about 90% of the entire global Muslim population. The Shia are about 10%. And as a result, because they're the minority, the Shia are the majority of the Muslim population. The Shia are much more fanatical than the Sunni. And this has always been historically true. They believe in martyrdom. So in other words, the Houthis will fight to the death. They're not afraid of death. Okay. And the third thing about the Houthis that we need to appreciate is they control this critical choke point called the Bab el-Mandad Strait. This is the Red Sea. So a lot of trade has to go through the Red Sea. Now, what we know is Iran has already closed off the Strait of Hormuz. And the easiest and cheapest way for Saudi Arabia to get its oil to East Asia and South Asia is by the sea. So Saudi Arabia cannot actually transport its oil. Okay. So that's the first group that is now involved in this war, the Houthis. Then you have Hezbollah, okay, which is in Lebanon right here. And they are now fighting Israel. Hezbollah is also a Shia group. So they are also very fanatical. And then you also have Iraq, the Shia militias that are basically their own independent militaries. So all four have been brought into the war. Now you have Iran, you have the Houthis, you have Hezbollah, you have the Shia militia in Iraq. Why is this important? Because they spent the entire Middle East. And so we are now seeing expansion of the war. And over time, what might happen is more and more nations have been brought into the war to protect their own
Speaker 2interests. How is this different from, you know, I grew up with this Iraq war, and there was lots of conflict in the Middle East. There was always fighting going on. And it's it feels like it's been a function of my, my childhood is that the Middle East always fighting in some capacity somewhere. And it, you know, eventually, there's a peace in Iraq, and the war kind of stops and ISIS is decapitated or whatever. And it just kind of moves around a little bit.
Speaker 1Yeah, great question. But what's happening today is very different from 2003. 2003, the United States went in to get decapitate Saddam Hussein and his government. And that was easy to because you had a government that was not very popular amongst the people. So America specializes in shock and awe military tactics. The problem today is you have four different groups. You have the IRGC in Iran. You have the Houthis in Yemen. You have Hezbollah in Lebanon. You have the Shia militia in Iraq. And you have the Shia militia in Iran. And you have the Shia militia in Iraq. They are decentralized. They are fanatical. And they share a similar eschatology. They share a similar religious framework. And as a result, what we know is the United States military is not very good at fighting guerrilla insurgents. We know because of what happened in Afghanistan, as well as Iran. These two are what is often referred to as forever wars, where the United States spent $200 over 20 years to try to squash insurgents, and they failed miserably. So because these four groups are coordinating, but they're decentralized, this means that this war can only expand over time. Now, Saudi Arabia feels threatened by the Houthis. So what Saudi Arabia has done is, most recently, it's signed something called the Mecca Accords, Turkey and Pakistan. So Turkey and Pakistan and Saudi Arabia now must come to each other's defense. And it seems to me, of these three countries, Saudi Arabia will be the first to invoke this mutual defense pact against the Houthis. So you can see a situation where Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia is brought into war to try to dislodge the Houthis. But we know that the Houthis, in a mountain retreat, are almost invincible. So this war can only expand. And the Houthis, in response, what they can do is destroy the energy infrastructure of Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have ballistic missiles, they have drones. And Saudi Arabia is this giant lake of gasoline, ready to be blown up or lit up by the Houthis at any time. You know, back in the early
Speaker 2There was the Al-Qaeda, there was ISIS, there was, you know, there was still and Hamas. So how is this different? Because there was lots of military militant groups.
Speaker 1Great question. Okay. Why this is different is there is active coordination amongst these groups. So Al-Qaeda, ISIS, they were working separately, but there are three proxies. Okay. You have the Houthis, you have the Hezbollah in Lebanon, you have the Shia militia. They all report back to the IRGC in Iran. And here's the kicker. This is really important. Both China and Russia are supporting Iran in this conflict. China is supporting Iran through the Belt and Road Initiative, basically transporting goods to Iran through this corridor. And Russia is supporting Iran through the Caspian Sea. As a result, Iran, in theory, could fight this war. Indefinitely. Okay. That's one thing that we have to appreciate. There's a clear alliance in place to make sure that Iran and its proxies can withstand this war. The other thing that's really important for us to appreciate is that the Middle East, it is the heart and center of the petrodollar system. It takes all these barrels of oil in the GCC country, and transports them to India, Pakistan, China, Japan. Okay. And what then happens is the East Asia takes these barrels of oil and energy. Can you put the Merrill Brothers in Japan?
Speaker 2What are these little figurines you're asking me to put in Japan?
Speaker 1So this represents Japan's contribution. To the global economy. So it takes energy from the Middle East and turns them into manufactured products, consumer electronic products for the world to consume. It makes these in US dollars, and China, Japan, and the GCC all invest their access savings in the United States, which allows the United States to focus on innovation, to create places like New York City. New York City is also a very specialized area because it basically is the financial center of the world. Okay. So all this is a petrodollar system. As you can see, the system is dependent on free trade. But once the oil stops flowing, then what happens is China, Japan are no longer able to make the manufactured goods they need to export. And the United States loses all these recycled US dollars. So the... The three biggest buyers of US Treasuries, basically the three biggest financiers of the US economy, basically the AI bubble, are Japan, the GCC, and China. So we will see a cascading effect where maybe in a few months' time, the system collapses.
Speaker 2Do you know what, Professor? One of the reasons why I think it's quite hard for... And it's going to be completely honest. People can take this as they take it, but it's just me being honest. One of the reasons why it's quite hard to believe that, you know, the world is going to collapse and that this is going to be like the Bronze Age collapse. I was actually reading about the Bronze Age collapse after you mentioned it. And what I pulled up here says, the late Bronze Age collapse was a rapid, violent, and widespread societal breakdown that occurred in the Eastern Mediterranean between approximately 1200 and 1150 BCE. Before the collapse, the region was heavily globalized. Major superpowers like the Egyptian Empire, the Egyptian Empire, the Egyptian Empire, the Egyptian were deeply interconnected through diplomacy, royal marriages, and complex international trade networks. But within a span of just 50 years, almost every significant city in the Eastern Mediterranean was destroyed, and many were never rebuilt. And there's a map which I'll throw up on the screen which shows this breakdown. Here's my honesty. As a 34-year-old, I have lived a very... Charmed life. Charmed life. Yeah. As it relates to, you know, history and the things that happened in history. So when we hear these things that, you know, the society will break down, there'll be civil collapse, we don't really have a reference point as like Gen Zs and millennials, really. Our parents and their parents, they have, you know, reference points from World War II, et cetera, and the 1940s, et cetera, but we don't really have them. So it seems all to be quite, you know, that can't happen to us.
Speaker 1Yeah, you're absolutely right. And I think a lot of the issue is... The world has been constructed in a way to maintain the privileges of the Western populations. An example I use is, you say that we've lived a charmed life. Well, if you've been... If you lived in Iraq, Afghanistan, these places, you do not live a charmed life. Yeah. Because the United States came and attacked you for no particular reason, and they destroyed the very infrastructure of your society. Even today, Iraq and Afghanistan are engulfed in political violence and war and political assassinations. And so you've never known if you were a child in Iraq or Afghanistan, and even in Africa, you've never known peace, stability, and prosperity. So the inequality in the world is stark. And we in the West have been extremely privileged, to be sheltered from a lot of chaos in the world. In fact, the U.S. Empire is designed to ensure the populations never have to suffer the tragedy and suffering of other people. And what I'm trying to say is, this U.S. Empire is breaking down, and there's nothing that we can do to stop it. So all the suffering that we might have seen on television, it is coming to us in our lives. And we need to be aware of it. When you say it's coming to us in our lives, what's coming to us in our lives? The same political violence, the same chaos, the same political polarization that has infested the rest of the world.
Speaker 2Do you think war is coming to our shores? Because we now live in a post-new nuclear bomb era.
Speaker 1Yes.
Speaker 2And that seems to have created, in a weird way, a bit of peace. Right. Between superpowers.
Speaker 1I'm going to go to the screen. Okay. And I'm going to paint you a picture of our global supply chains and what it means for global supply chains to break down using a few maps. And these maps, I hope, will paint a clear and simple picture of what is about to come.
Speaker 2Can I ask you a question just before we go to the screen? Sure. Have you always been pessimistic about the future? No. When did you become pessimistic about the future? About the future?
Speaker 1I became very pessimistic about the future after Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Because I was an immigrant who grew up in a very poor family. My father was a dishwasher, and he was a dishwasher for 30 years before he retired. We were so poor, we couldn't even afford a car. We never took any vacations. But I worked hard. I went to Yale University, one of the best colleges in the world. And not only that, but I went there on a full scholarship. So from my perspective, the world was perfect. It was a meritocracy. It was a place that rewarded talent and hard work. So I believe that the world was governed by reason, by logic, by science, by truth, by good people. And when Brexit and the election of Donald Trump came, I was so pessimistic about the future. When the election of Donald Trump happened, I was traumatized. Brexit was the British people turning away from globalization. The election of Donald Trump, from my perspective, was the American rejection of meritocracy, of reason, of truth, of order. And when that happened, it sort of told me what I believed about the world didn't really matter. And when those things happened, that forced me to reflect deeply on why the world was breaking down. And those events led me to today. Because what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to figure out patterns of history, principles of society that allow us to better understand ourselves. And that's why I drew you this formula. Additionally, we understood innovation as maybe coming from universities. And having studied history, having studied global supply chains, I now recognize that, no, technology just comes from specialization and globalization. And this not only is an analysis of the current world, but it also gives us a framework to predict the future, right? So if, in a time of war, specialization and globalization break down, then in theory, technology should break down as well. Okay. And that's what I'm trying to do. I'm trying to figure out how and why. why we are we where we are today so you wanted to draw something on the whiteboard okay right
Speaker 2whoa what's that on your face this is uh my bond charge face mask i've been wearing this for some time now they're a sponsor of the podcast i put this on for 15 20 minutes a day i can sit here in the chair and wear it boost my collagen production helps with fine line blemishes my complexion gets better and then people people listen to podcasts because i i look better professional grade equipment in such a small box it's non-invasive and having sat here with so many of the world's leading health professionals there's various things that i repeatedly hear work and some things i'm a bit skeptical about this is one of the things that almost all of my guests on this show have confirmed works it is really really really effective and they offer fast free shipping worldwide with easy returns and exchanges and you'll also get a one-year warranty on all of their products and they're hsa and fsa eligible giving you tax-free savings up to 40 percent and you can get 20 off when you order through my link at bondcharge.com slash doac that's bondcharge.com slash doac the deal applies sitewide much of the reason most people haven't posted content or built their personal brand is because it's hard and it's time consuming and we're all very very busy and if you've never posted something before there's so many factors in your psychology that stop you wanting to post what people will think of you am i doing this right is the thing i'm saying absolutely stupid all of these result in paralysis which means you don't post and your feed goes better i'm an investor in a company called stan store which you've probably heard me talk about and what they've been building is this new tool called stanley that uses ai looks at your feed looks at your tone of voice looks at your history looks at your best performing posts and tells you what you should post makes those posts for you you can also just use it for inspiration and sometimes what we need when we're thinking about doing a post for our social media channels is inspiration building an audience for our social media channels is inspiration and i think that's has fundamentally changed my life and i think it could change yours too so i'm inviting you to give this new tool a shot and let me know what you think all you have to do is search coach.stan.store
Speaker 1now to get started so this is a summary of the global supply chain network and we can see how it involves the entire world you are not able to build semiconductors unless you have a globalized economy so there's been a lot of talk about controlling the elements right so China manufactures about 70% of the world's silicon and rare earths China controls about 70% of rare earths what people don't appreciate is it works both ways okay so China does export a lot of silicon and rare earths but it also needs to import a lot of helium in order to sustain its semiconductor manufacturing process the reason why is helium cools the semiconductors in a way to allow it for to manufacture okay so helium is a cooling agent another thing that people don't appreciate is people think that China has a monopoly on rare earths but America in a place called Spruce Pine Spruce Pine North Carolina this area has monopoly on high quality quartz it controls about 90% of the world's high quality quartz which you need in the silicon manufacturing process as well okay so if these nations start to stop trading with each other technology would cease to progress now something to keep in mind is it's not just semiconductors are dependent on the global supply chain food is also very dependent on the global supply chain so what we're seeing is a stark contrast between the North and the South so the North okay produces most of the world's fertilizer and the South okay primarily Africa the Middle East and South America they import a lot of the fertilizer this map shows it much more clearly okay so ammonia is a very important component of fertilizer and as you can see most of the ammonia production plants are actually in the north of the world Canada United States Europe China Russia so the South the global South is dependent on the North for food in a time of war when global supply chains break down the North might lose access to fancy wireless smartphones the South will face famine okay why is this important because the world is rife with conflict the main issue that we will face next 20 years is not oil it's actually water all right so this map that we're seeing right now is actually telling us where the next major geopolitical flash points are so basically if you see red on the map it means this place has water scarcity issues and the red issues tell us exactly where wars will erupt okay so even the United States if you look at the western part of the United States they do have water scarcity issues and actually if you go to the western United States Colorado California Arizona these places they're fighting over the water scarcity issues and the red issues tell us exactly where wars will erupt okay so even in the United States if you look at the western part of the United States they do have water scarcity issues and actually if you go to the western United States Colorado California Arizona these places they're fighting over the water scarcity issues and actually if you go to the western United States Colorado California Arizona these places they're fighting over the the Colorado River because the Colorado River is what supplies most of their water you go to the Middle East and you know that the Middle East it's almost like a dynamite ready to explode and what this war will do is aggravate all the tensions in the Middle East India itself is facing water shortages which brings it into conflict with China okay so this one map if you can just see it it basically tells you where the next geopolitical flashpoints will be it means a place that is most likely to go to war or have conflict or political violence over the next 20 years okay but also here is North East Asia Japan is here North Korea is here okay so that's another major flashpoint so this is what over the next 20 years where war is most likely to break out okay but what's important to appreciate is once war breaks out there are third-order effects causing conflict to spread all around the world okay this is a really important map for us to appreciate as well this map tells us fertility rates around the world as you can see Africa has the world's highest fertility rate a followed by the Middle East okay so they're having the most children per couples that's right why is this a problem because if you go back to the previous map this area is also where there is the most geopolitical tension and so if there are more and more children young people being born here they have no choice but to migrate and where will they migrate probably to Europe and you're like well okay well then what Europe should do is turtle up Europe should build walls and prevent these migrants from reaching Europe but Europe has its own problem which is the aging crisis okay so look at what's happening where the fastest aging populations are in fact in the most developed nations including Japan and the United States and the United States Europe and North America so if you have an aging population you need to provide cheap health care nursing what does that mean it means you have to let in more immigrants in order to surface the aging population and what will happen then is domestic conflict where you have more migration into Western societies which brings them into conflict with the native populations and the therefore it is possible you have civil war as well as political violence and even the possibility of revolution okay so these maps collectively paint a very grim picture of the world that we're living in on this page here about
Speaker 2immigration causing civil war political violence revolution won't it just be the case as we're seeing that these Western societies will increase the elect right-wing political parties which is kind of what we're seeing we're seeing you know parties in the UK like reform surge I think there was news yesterday in Germany of the political party there we're seeing I mean we're seeing the
Speaker 1same in the United States as well that that's a fantastic point that's that's exactly what we're seeing we're seeing the AFD surge in Germany you know MAGA being very dominant in the United States we're seeing Vox in Spain we're seeing a lot of things happening in the United States as well so in theory what's gonna happen is these countries become much more right-wing and then they block out immigration because that is your main policy platform and that should stop the civil war the problem is what do you do about your aging population robots exactly right that's what you would think but what we're seeing is a breakdown in global supply chains robots depend on copper right which you get from global supply chains robots depend on copper right which you get from global supply chains robots depend on copper right which you get from global supply chains robots depend on copper right which you get from global supply chains robots depend on copper right which you get from chilly peru china australia these are pretty far away places from europe and united states right you also need lithium which you get from the lithium triangle again pretty far away you also need silicon which is mainly manufactured in china you need rare earths which again is really manufactured in china so this you have this huge issue where in theory you could use robots but in the when global supply chain breaks down you have to figure out the cheapest way to resolve the labor issue and the cheapest solution is immigration right people i had to say this but people are much cheaper and much more expandable than robots so i know this is a bit scary i know this is really depressing okay but what if the united states were able to win this war in iran and conduct regime change then our problems are solved right now iran is under control of the united states and we're back to globalization where oil is able to flow to south asia to east asia and then they manufacture goods and then recycle their profits into this economy and with all this money ai is able to innovate to a point where we achieve agi and then we solve all the worst problems okay so what happens next with this whole iran situation so unfortunately it has now developed its own momentum all right so you have iran and you are now controlling the short form moves right you have the houthis and they control the baal and mandat strait you have hezbollah which can threaten the suez canal you have the shia militias that can also threaten the mediterranean right from a game theory perspective what iran should do next is take the initiative and disrupt all global trade the reason why is the u.s empire is based on a petrodollar it's based on global trade when you disrupt global trade at the same time there's no way for the united states to respond how could they disrupt global trade what they can do is start to attack randomly okay so what who's going to do is attack the global trade system they can attack saudi arabia um iraq can um attack israel iran can attack the sort of moves uh hezbollah can attack the suez canal okay and why you do that is you're creating uncertainty and chaos in the global trade system why is that important because the global trade system is built on confidence and that's what drives insurance okay so if you're an insurance company you're like oh my god i'm going to have to do this i'm going to have to do this i'm going to these countries are sorry these actors are completely out of control the united states has lost control over the situation you can no longer insure global shipping if you can't insure global shipping global shipping ceases to work all right so this is the madman theory and this is iran's best play moving forward and the reason why is the united states does not have the military capacity to respond to a coordinated random strike across the middle east so is this your prediction is this what happens next i don't want to make this prediction just because there are lots of factors i do not know okay so so first of all i don't know politically what the situation is in iran certainly the irgc would want to do this but there are political factions within iran who would think this is too provocative and it's possible the entire world would unite against iran
Speaker 2if iran were to do this so what is your prediction in terms of iran and what happens next
Speaker 1my prediction is this will only escalate how it will escalate i don't know okay but the trump card to use a pun for iran is to start to disrupt global trade but united states has a response and this response is to attack iran's critical civil infrastructure which includes desalination plants and power plants and this would be worse than using a nuclear weapon on iran because without power plants the people in tehran a city of about 10 million people they face starvation because a lot of this food is refrigerated this is how the war becomes almost civilization destroying if iran were to completely disrupt global trade and if the united states were to destroy the power plants of iran obviously that would be horrific and uh sort of
Speaker 2inconceivably horrifying for the people that live in iran the innocent people that are caught in the middle of this you don't think that the u.s would actually do that though right i think the united
Speaker 1states will be forced to do it you think they'll be forced to do yes according to game theory they will be forced to behave like this because we need to appreciate this formula where the more power you have the less imagination you have the more power you have the less imagination you have the less and empathy you have and so the idea is you don't think killing millions of iranians is a too heavier price it's all worth it if you can maintain the empire the hubris leads you to believe that the gods favor you and you ultimately win and triumph in this great struggle don't you create a huge
Speaker 2migration crisis where people start fleeing from iran
Speaker 1up into europe because they are starving exactly right not just iran but africa as well because they've lost access to cheap energy and fertilizer so you have all this migration into europe which would overwhelm european the european social fabric which would overwhelm the european state but unfortunately this has been happening at a much slower pace ever since 2014 when for whatever reason the united states chose to destroy libya and cause a civil war in syria which caused millions to migrate into europe and as you remember the europeans in the generosity accepted all these migrants which is leading which has led to tremendous social friction and
Speaker 2political tension in europe today so your prediction here if we conclude then is that the u.s won't win this quote-unquote war in the middle east yes because they're can't defeat iran in its proxies but also your conclusion is that this is going to continue to
Speaker 1escalate in the middle east yes and already what we're seeing are other actors being drawn into the war so the so the most recent news is south korea has authorized a naval contingent to go and try to secure the straight up who moves what would you do if you were donald trump i mean um what would i do if i were donald trump i would push all in i would start attacking power plants in uh iran because if i take any half measures i would just look weak and i'm only going to create more problems i would only incentivize iran and its allies to be more provocative to be more aggressive so if i'm donald trump and i'm in this situation i would just push all in you'd end up killing millions of iranians theoretically well i start this war right then i have to win this war because i can't lose this war i refuse to lose this war i mean again i understand the concerns okay but if you want to understand how these leaders think this formula gives you the best window into into the psychology which is because of so much power they lose the capacity to imagine different possibilities and have empathy for the suffering of the people in the world
Speaker 2couldn't they just back out couldn't they just couldn't donald trump just say do a big press conference where he says we won this war in iran they destroyed their military their naval bases it's done and iran will no longer have a nuclear weapon the entire petrodollar system is premised
Speaker 1on two things the u.s dollar as the world reserve currency and the aura of inevitability and
Speaker 2the u.s as its image is sufficiently tarnished right what are your predictions i've been dying
Speaker 1to know so i brought to you three predictions and because we are so close to the anniversary of 9 11 in new york city um i structured these predictions around the anniversary and so these will be three fun but horrifying predictions okay all right so my prediction number one is there will be a siege of New York City, all right? So let me explain my logic. I was here last time and I said that Donald Trump will get a third term and he's been joking about it. He's been talking a lot about it. He's been social truthing about it. And so let's imagine what happens if Trump gets a third term. Well, you would have a lot of pissed off people, especially in the major cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, and New York City.
Speaker 2We should probably just pause there because there is a constitutional ban on serving three terms. The primary barrier being the 22nd Amendment, which was ratified in 1951 by Franklin D. Roosevelt, who won four elections. It establishes a strict term limit for the presidency. And the text in this 22nd Amendment explicitly says, no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice. So how could that happen?
Speaker 1Well, let's just say there is a national emergency and the president is forced to suspend the constitution, then he could theoretically have his third term. It's also possible that in 2028, he decides to run as the vice president and have his son, Don Jr., run at the top of the ticket. And then once the election is over, then Don Jr. would resign and then Donald Trump would become the president. And there's nothing in the constitution that prevents him from doing that. So there are two possibilities.
Speaker 2There isn't anything in the constitution that allows the U.S. president to suspend the constitution in a time of a national emergency.
Speaker 1It's president. So for example, during the American Civil War, Abraham Lincoln was able to suspend the constitution in a time of a national emergency. And during World War II, Franklin Delano Roosevelt also did many unconstitutional things. For example, interning the Japanese population in caps. There's nothing the Supreme Court could do against this because a lot of U.S. politics is convention. It's agreed upon norms. But if a U.S. president is like, well, screw these conventions. There's nothing anyone else can do about it. All right. So let's imagine, okay, just for the sake of this argument, Trump gets a third term. What will happen is these cities that are democratic will be an open revolt, meaning they will refuse to pay taxes to the federal government, but they will also not welcome ICE federal agents into their cities, which creates conflict between federal law enforcement and federal law enforcement. And historically, if that were to happen, then the president, U.S. president, usually thinks that he has a responsibility to quash this insurrection, right? And so this would, over time, lead to the siege of New York City, where maybe federal forces, along with possibly militias from other states, possibly red states that favor Trump, they would try to besiege New York City. by cutting off the food supply and water supply to New York City. And this will be a conflict that could go on for years and years. And what year would that take place? 2028? It could happen right after Trump secures his third term.
Speaker 2Do you think Trump is going to have a third term?
Speaker 1Do you want to bet? Yeah. I think he'll get a third term. How much do you want to bet? Let's take a friendly bet and say $100. Do you know what? I haven't said this before,
Speaker 2but I actually did have a bet with two, random guys on Facebook. I don't use Facebook, but I had a bet with two random guys on Facebook a couple of years ago. They told me that after Donald Trump had lost the election to Joe Biden, they told me that he was going to stay in power. And so I said, there's no way he stays in power. And they said, no, he will. So then, and then they offered me a bet. They said a thousand pounds each. We bet you he's going to stay in power. They were like queuing on people. And I said, fine. And they actually did pay me when he came out of power. They transferred me a thousand dollars each. I gave it to charity. But so I'm more than happy to make another bet if you want to make a bet. Let's do it. A hundred dollars. A hundred US dollars. A hundred US dollars. And you're betting that Trump gets a third term.
Speaker 1Yes. I think he'll be in power after 2028. Is that fair? Like, like he'll be in power after 2028.
Speaker 2When's the election?
Speaker 1Well, the election should be November 4th, 2028. But I didn't say he would win the election. I just said he would get a third term.
Speaker 2So you're saying that he will refuse to leave office or find another way to remain president beyond the date of the inauguration?
Speaker 1Yes. I'm saying that. Uh, on January 21, 2029, Trump will still be in the White House.
Speaker 2Okay. I'll take that bet. Okay. If everyone's clear. And please do, uh, remind me to cash in, lads.
Speaker 1A hundred dollars.
Speaker 2Okay.
Speaker 1A hundred dollars may not be worth anything at that time, but that's a hundred dollars. Okay. Okay. All right. So again, we are just assuming for the sake of argument that Trump is in office in his third term, there'll be political violence, uh, across the United States, primarily in New York City. And if. The federal authority is being challenged by a city or local state authority, then the president will take this very seriously and send in forces to quash this insurrection. Maybe other cities will be much more compliant, but New York City has a very charismatic mayor in Zohan Madani and New Yorkers, you don't want to mess with New Yorkers. When they get angry, they get really, really angry. So, so this I think, uh, is. Uh, very likely if Trump gets a third term, there'll be a siege of New York City. He would almost be 83 years old. I mean, we say that, but like the amount of energy he has, right. The fact of the matter is the guy eats cheeseburgers every day. He gives a press conference almost every day. He's always on social media, tweeting out something stupid. For example, he's tweeted out that, you know, all of North America is now the USA. I'm not sure if you've seen that yet. And he's talking about taking over Canada and Greenland and Cuba. So I don't know where he gets his energy, but he seems really energetic. I'm not sure if you've ever interviewed Obama.
Speaker 2Michelle Obama.
Speaker 1Okay. But like, if you just looked at the picture of Obama in 2008, he was a really handsome, really young, very vibrant man in 2008. You fast forward eight years and he came out just, like, decrepit. Okay. He was, he had aged like at least 20 years in his office. Donald Trump, for whatever reason, has not aged that much.
Speaker 2Hair dyeing fake tan?
Speaker 1He, so there's something really weird about Donald Trump, which is a lot of US journalists in Washington DC have his direct personal cell phone number and they can call him and they will talk for an hour. Like, the guy is the president of the United States. And if you are just an average Washington journalist, you can call him and talk to him for, for an hour a day. There are journalists who go to the White House to interview him and says, like, we try to get, we try to like leave like an hour ago, but he, he made a stay and talk to him some more. He went on his leave. So I don't know where he gets his energy from, but he's extreme, extremely energetic. And he loves that, you know, being in the White House. And he's like, okay, I'm going to do this. I'm going to do this.
Speaker 2Okay. What's prediction number two?
Speaker 1So again, we are approaching the anniversary of 9-11. And there are a lot of people who fear there will be another 9-11 attack on the United States, just because you have a lot of actors that are very angry at the United States and who may want to seek vengeance against the United States. So what's the prediction number two? I believe it will be an attack on the U.S. financial infrastructure. Okay. So let me explain my reasoning. What was 9-11? 9-11 was an act committed by terrorists in order to traumatize the population into self-destructive violence. Is that a fair statement? I don't really know. Is that, was that the... So let's parse the statement. 9-11 was an attempt to traumatize the U.S. financial infrastructure. 9-11 was an attempt to traumatize the American population into self-destructive violence. What I mean by that is you're taking the symbols of American power, which are like these airplanes, as well as the Twin Towers. These are symbols of American power. And the Pentagon. And the Pentagon. And the White House. And you're destroying them. And for the longest time, American people believed that these are symbols of American invincibility. Our planes are... The Pentagon. The Twin Towers. And to see them destroyed like that would traumatize the population. In fact, it did traumatize many, many people. And the idea is you traumatize them into a self-destructive violence, which means like they want vengeance. And so what do they do? They went to the Middle East, fought against the Taliban in Afghanistan, then went to attack Iraq. Then this war spread to Syria, Libya. And we can say that these 20 years, of these former wars in the Middle East, have been very destructive for the United States. It's caused a huge fiscal deficit. it it's caused uh the american military to lose a lot of prestige it's caused a lot of corruption in washington dc it's been very bad for the united states all right so if you're the terrorist and you look at 9-11 you're like okay well i want to do the same thing which is like i want to traumatize people into self-destructive violence how can i do so well i need to traumatize them right me flying planes into the new the new twin towers doesn't do that because people are now used to they've they've been normalized into this sort of violence so how can i induce trauma into people well there are different possibilities you can use right so let's do a thought experiment what would happen if one day you open your iphone and you're looking to buy a coffee well you scan your iphone and it doesn't read and you're like well there might be a problem with the bag you call the bag you can't get food to the bag and like after hours and hours of frantic anxiety you finally recognize that there was an attack on critical u.s financial data servers and so all the money your bank account has been wiped out and they don't know when or how long it will take them to retrieve it what do you feel consent i would say you would feel more than concerned i would say you would feel a lot of anger and anxiety and frustration but that must
Speaker 2be hard to do surely taking out the financial infrastructure for everybody for a long enough period of time where they start to feel real world consequences would you say 9-11 was hard to do
Speaker 1yeah i would say so as well i can possibly imagine them doing this so there is certain creativity to these people and i would not rule that out but i'm just saying if another 9-11 happens it is possible what we'll see is the destruction of the u.s financial infrastructure which would drive millions of people into a mad frenzy you've worked your entire life to save up two million dollars that two million dollars is your retirement it used to be that working for
Speaker 2yourself was a massive massive risk but that world has completely changed if you've got a business idea that you can't stop thinking about i think you owe it to yourself to at least try and make it happen and that is where our show sponsor shopify comes in their smart platform includes everything you need to start selling and get that idea off the ground they have this drag and drop editor they have this ai sidekick it helps you they have analytics and you don't need to be an expert to get going shopify is best in class checkout make sure that you're getting paid from day one it helps more of your customers finish their purchase because their checkout is so efficient and it saves their info for next time personalized checkouts like that equal more conversion equal a faster growing business nothing kills that early enthusiasm you have for a new idea than that first initial step to get going being difficult complicated or expensive and you need to save as much time and money so that you can focus all of it on growing your actual business and that's what shopify gives you head over to shopify.com slash bartlett and you can start your free trial right now you said to me at the top of the conversation you're having difficulty getting back into the united states recently yes what do you
Speaker 1mean by that so i think there are a lot of people who do not like what i'm saying i would say i am one of the most polarizing figures in the world right now so um the story is that the iran war and i was really afraid that this fame would annoy and frustrate a lot of americans and so i decided that i should not actually go to the united states at this point because it's most likely that i come here and i could be held in detention by customs i could be deported and so that time period was extremely scary for me and i i refuse all offers to come to the united states there were quite a few people who wanted me to fight united states to be interviewed so then what happens over the summer the war started to die down i thought okay let me fly to canada where my family is and i'm in toronto and i'm gonna try to enter the united states by air from toronto so on august 5th i went to the toronto airport pearson it was like seven o'clock in the morning because i had an early flight to los angeles i told them that i was going to go on for and i'll be in the united states for two weeks uh which was all true so so when i'm at customs the immigration officer asked me a lot of questions but i handle all these questions pretty smoothly then he asked me do you have a travel letter for your son because my son chris who's eight years old he's traveling with me and i'm like what is a travel letter and again this is like seven o'clock in the morning so my brain's not working he's like call your wife like okay so i try to call my wife my wife is in the shower and so then the immigration officer's okay you have you have to go into secondary to be interrogated to make sure that your son chris is traveling with you willingly so we go we go into secondary and it's like seven o'clock in the morning and my flight's at 8 30 and we're waiting for like an hour and i'm freaking out because it seems like we'll miss our flight and during this hour i'm texting my wife and she's giving me the birth certificate she's giving me all the materials i need to prove that this son that chris is my son and then at the very last minute we get called in a minute a minute i'm able to resolve the issue and i tell him i'm going to go on the field run show and i'll be there for two weeks so i'm in the united states and i get contact from other podcasts to do interviews and i travel around the united states and i forget about the two-week promise to the immigration authorities because i'm not sure if you know the two-week promise to the immigration authorities i'm a canadian citizen and therefore i don't need a visa to come to the united states you know if you say i'm coming for two weeks but you stay a month it's usually not an issue i go back to toronto and i come back to do this podcast and so yesterday i am put in yesterday i'm ready okay i have my travel letter i have my son's birth certificate and i go to immigration officer and they still put me in uh secondary but basically i think what happened was i said certain things during my podcast interviews that pissed off some really powerful people in the united states a lot of things that i said were related to something called a clean brick memo which you have the clean brick memo was published in 1996 and it laid out a plan for how israel can become the dominant hegemon in the middle east it's written by a study group and part of the study group there were two individuals they were richard pearl and that was five these two would in the george w administration sorry george w bush administration go work in the pentagon and these two along with paul wolfowitz were the chief architects of iraq war so i named these people and i explained how this war in iran follows from the clean brick memo and the goal is to establish israel as the regional hegemon and i think this is what got me into a lot of trouble why do you think that got you into a lot of trouble because i'm a canadian when i come into the country they usually don't bother me and so for them to question me i think it was because some top officials basically requested that i'd be put in secondary every time i come to the united states and i i also believe this because i have a friend max blumenthal who is a very good u.s journalist and he was in iran covering kamenei's funeral in response um a social media influencer named laura loomer demanded his arrest and so when max blumenthal came into the country and he is a u.s citizen by the way his devices were confiscated and now max blumenthal is suing the department of confiscating his devices and so i think that we live in a time when unfortunately the empire is in decline and because of hubris and arrogance they are trying to silence their critics rather than accept our constructive criticisms okay so it's a theory actually they never told me why i was pretty secondary but he hinted at me that every time i come to the united states i will be put into secondary i'm not going to be put into secondary i'm not going to be put into secondary to make sure that i'm coming to the united states for legitimate reasons also he hinted at me that it is possible that once my i-94 expires in six months they will not renew it meaning they will not allow me in the country anymore i hope i come back to the united states i i have the deepest admiration for the american people i think that the americans are the most open and generous people in the world but at the same time i do appreciate that we are living in the very interesting times prediction three okay my third prediction is that Lionel Messi will become president of Argentina. Oh, wow. I wasn't expecting that. Yeah. So I wanted three new predictions that were fun and interesting for us to discuss. So why I make this prediction is that Argentina is working very closely with the United States and Israel at this moment. You are a British citizen, so you will appreciate that Argentina has recently demanded the return of the Falklands. And Donald Trump has voiced support to Argentina. So I'm asking myself, why are they so concerned about the Falklands? And not only that, but if you've been following the news, having Malay has become very close. With Benjamin Netanyahu, Argentina and Israel have very strong relations. In fact, Argentina is welcoming Israeli investment and immigration into Argentina. And apparently, if you are an Israeli citizen and you go into Argentina, again, you can fact check this, but from what I understand, you have immediate access to the health care as well as pension, which makes actually no sense because they're not Argentina citizens. Right. So it seems... It seems very much that Argentina is working very close with Israel and the United States. And the reason why I think that Israel and Argentina are working very close together is right now, there's almost a civil war in Israel when Messianic Jews who believe this war in the Middle East will usher in the end times and the coming of the Messiah and secular Jews who are like these people are insane. And so the only way to resolve this, this conflict is by exporting secular Jews elsewhere. And it seems to me, Argentina is a very good place to export them. So, but then you're like, OK, how do you get the people of Argentina to accept this massive immigration into Argentina from Israel? Because Israel is not very popular in Argentina. I think the best way is to make Lionel Messi, the president of Argentina, and his popularity will be enough to let all these Israelis into the country. Him as well as the reclaiming of the Falkland Islands, right? These two things, you know, the God of Argentina becomes president and Argentina reclaims the Falklands from the British. And I apologize to you as a British citizen.
Speaker 2It's OK. I like Messi. You also mentioned to me that you think Japan is going to go to war with China. Well, China's not going to go to war with China. China's going to go to war with Japan. Yes. What makes you think that? Well, because every Chinese believes this.
Speaker 1Yes. So it's the funniest thing. But like for the longest time, people believed that China will eventually invade Taiwan. This is what's very commonly accepted in the West. But if you actually go to China, no Chinese actually believes this. And no Taiwanese actually believes this because this is not the way that China actually goes. It's not the way that China actually goes. It's not the way that China actually goes. about its foreign policy. It does not go and invade other countries. Or in its most recent history, it has not been that aggressive. The last war that China fought was in Vietnam, and this was in the mid-early 80s. So it's a long time. But if you go to China today, everyone believes that China and Japan will go to war. And to appreciate this, you have to understand the geography of Southeast Asia.
Speaker 2Should I throw something up on the screen?
Speaker 1Yeah. Okay. So what I want to do is use geography to explain why conflict between China and Japan is inevitable at this point. Okay. So you have Japan. Okay. And you have China. Okay. So the first thing to appreciate is that these are two very different countries. China is a land power that is self-sufficient. Japan is a sea power that is dependent on resources from abroad. So historically, China was probably an agricultural nation. Japan, in order to survive, engaged in piracy. So the Japanese have always been pretty militaristic. They had a cyber culture for the longest time. They were always at war with each other. And the Japanese have always been pretty militaristic. They had a cyber culture for the longest time. The Japanese people are extremely resilient and cohesive because the geography of Japan is very unstable. There's lots of earthquakes. There's lots of tsunamis. So they have to work together as a people in order to survive. This is important because this war in Iran is affecting both China and Japan. China will probably have to de-industrialize. But if Japan doesn't do anything, then it's possible in the next 50 years, Japan ceases to exist. So Japan will probably have to de-industrialize. But if Japan doesn't do anything, then it's possible in the next 50 years, Japan ceases to exist. Because not only is Japan dependent on energy and imports and resources from overseas, but it has an aging population. It has the most elderly population in the world. So in a time of war, when the United States is no longer able to give you protection, Japan needs to create resource colonies. And historically, Southeast Asia, right here, has been the main resource colony of Japan. If it does not have Southeast Asia, the United States now becomes the main benefactor of Japan. And Japan doesn't want to be in that position because that's what happened in World War II when Japan got most of its energy from the United States. And when the United States embargoed Japan, Japan was forced to declare war on the United States. So the United States can provide Japan with all its energy needs, but that would make Japan completely subservient. So Japan wants to access the resources of Southeast Asia. There's a problem, though, and that problem is called Taiwan. Taiwan is right in the middle of the South China Sea. And if China and Taiwan were to reunify, what China could do now is embargo Japan. I'm not saying China will do so, but I'm saying that China has the option of doing so. And Japan sees that as a threat to its existence. When you say embargo, what does embargo mean?
Speaker 2Embargo means you blockade, okay? But if they did this, wouldn't the whole hell would break loose? You know, Japan are going to attack China. Taiwan, it's going to get messy. It's going to impact trade.
Speaker 1So I'm not saying that China would embargo Japan, but I'm saying it has the option of doing so. But you are saying that China is going to attack Japan? No, no, no, no. I'm saying there's a conflict between these two nations. Okay. I thought you said it was inevitable. Yes. So let me explain how this would change. How this would play out, okay? So Japan sees Taiwan, the Taiwan issue, as vital to its national security interests. And that's exactly what Prime Minister Takeuchi said a few months ago. And when she made that statement, China overreacted. So before you had millions of tourists from China visiting Japan a year. Now, most of them are not allowed to go to Japan. And it's very likely that Japan will have a conflict over Taiwan. Now, the thing to remember is it does not benefit any nation here to go to war. Because as you point out, all chaos would break out. What you need to do is create leverage to negotiate better terms. Okay. So what Japan is doing is saying, okay, look, we can't take on China directly because China is too powerful. But what we can do is build alliances to possibly challenge and if we have to embargo China, right? So what Japan is doing is build an alliance with the Philippines and Australia and India. And together, these four nations, even without the United States, they could, in theory, choose to embargo China, right? What Japan needs is access to Southeast Asia, because that will be the main source of its resources going into the future. So that is a scenario being played out. Now, China does not want to come into a conflict with Japan. Why? Because China is seen as the big bad dragon in this area. And if China is seen as too provocative, that would basically incentivize all of Southeast Asia to gang up on China. So you can see alliance between India, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, South Korea, North Korea, Japan versus China. Okay. So the way to resolve this issue is to use a proxy in order to threaten Japan, in order to develop more leverage over Japan in negotiations, right? And that proxy, of course, is North Korea. So North Korea has the potential to shell South Korea because most of the population of South North Korea. And so in theory, North Korea could flatten Seoul in just a day, okay? Most of North Korean artillery is actually by the border. What North Korea could also do is lobby missiles into the Sea of Japan and rattle the Japanese, okay? So this is the dynamic being played out where Japan through its proxies, primarily the Philippines, is challenging Chinese naval dominance in the sub-China Sea, and China will use North Korea as a proxy to threaten South Korea and Japan. Over time, as the United States retreats from the Asia-Pacific, this conflict between China and Japan will get worse and worse. And the main reason why is it is in the strategic best interest of the United States to foment as much tension between China and Japan as possible. But it could
Speaker 2compromise Taiwan, no? Who cares? The U.S. care about Taiwan. No, it doesn't. I thought that's
Speaker 1true. We get all of our semiconductors from. But what does Trump want to do? He wants Taiwanese to move their semiconductor industry to the United States. And that's already happening where TSMC, the main semiconductor company in Taiwan, has opened a, I believe it's $20 billion over the last decade. And if there's a conflict between China and Japan, the tension becomes worse and worse. The Taiwanese semiconductor industry would be forced to relocate to the United States, which would be in the best interest of the Americans. You also think that Russia are going to invade the Baltics. Yeah. Okay. So now we'll shift focus and go into Europe. All right. Okay. But is this pretty clear? Yes, it is clear. Okay. Right now you have NATO or Europe supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. Okay. And most of this war is actually happening in Eastern Ukraine. And Russia seems to be winning a lot of territory in Eastern Ukraine. But everybody's saying that Ukraine are fighting back really, really well. The reason why is what Ukraine has chosen to do in these past few months, which has changed the contours of the war is Ukraine is using drones to attack Russia's
Speaker 2energy infrastructure. And just hitting Russia in general is making the people of Russia change
Speaker 1their perception. Exactly. Right. So before this conflict was contained to Eastern Ukraine, it didn't affect the people of Russia. In fact, it really was helping the economy of Russia because Russia could still export. It's oil around the world. Now, Ukraine, what Ukraine is doing is using drones to attack the war refineries of Russia, which is causing economic pain on the Russian people. And this is making Putin increasingly unpopular. Okay. So the contour of the war has changed. So if you're Russia and you're looking at this, you think your enemy is not Ukraine. You think your enemy is NATO, Europe. Why? Because Ukraine, the drones are being manufactured in Germany and the UK and other places as well. So in theory, Ukraine could fight this war to infinity because its manufacturing hub is in Europe. Europe is also providing Ukraine with infinite financing as well as intelligence. Okay. So if you're Russia, you're like, wait a minute here. Over time, we can't possibly win this war of attrition because we're fighting Europe and Europe's manufacturing capacity is well protected behind the NATO alliance. Okay. So what I need to do is provoke NATO and Europe into coming into Ukraine, basically force them out of their shell, right? And so what's been happening is Germany and Russia have been, in conflict these past few months. In early August, there was a drone attack on Leipzig airport. Okay. Leipzig airport. And the Germans blame the Russians. And in response, the Germans closed down the Russian consulate in Bonn, as well as remove certain Russians from Germany. Russia is retaliating by closing the German consulate in St. Petersburg. The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said, we are in a similar situation to 1941. What happened in 1941? The Germans invaded Russia. Okay, so in other words, Russia recognizes that if they just leave Europe alone and just fight this war in Ukraine, they will lose in the end, so they must force and provoke Europe into mass mobilization to defend Ukraine. And one way to do that is by hitting critical manufacturing infrastructure within Europe.
Speaker 2Do you think Russia's next move is to attack within NATO, Germany, the UK, etc.? It has no choice. It has to do this. Can't it just do a deal with Trump? Like, you know, they're trying to do a deal at the moment, aren't they? Jared Kushner's apparently trying to get a deal done between Ukraine and Russia.
Speaker 1So, in the United States, do you want peace? Europe and Russia? Or do you want war between Europe and Russia? Well, from a game theory perspective, you're right off with war. Why? Because if there's war, Russia can't sell its energy overseas. The United States has monopoly over energy now, right?
Speaker 2This causes global instability, though. If there's a war here, then it's going to impact the U.S. in a big way. Well, then why did the United States invade Iran, right? Because they thought it would be an overnight Venezuela situation where you decapitate the leadership. Everyone rises up. You have a favorable leader in the country that is subservient to you.
Speaker 1Great. Exactly. And this is exactly how the empire thinks, right? We already used this formula, right? Now, if we apply this formula to Europe's situation, then the thinking is, well, Putin is a paper tiger. He is very unpopular at home. If we just force this war for another two months, if we continue to attack the energy infrastructure of Russia, then eventually the people will... Rise up and overthrow Putin, right? The same logic.
Speaker 2So, therefore, Trump wants the Ukraine to win, or he wants Ukraine to keep doing what they're doing?
Speaker 1Well, Trump personally doesn't care, right? Because the more war there is, the more the Europeans are forced to rely on American energy. Okay. So, if you're Putin, what you need to do is force the Europeans... into war in Ukraine. Why? Because there's really only one path to victory in this scenario. The path to victory is to cause instability and violence in Europe. Okay? The idea is, if you force Europe to mass mobilize, the people would rather overfall the government than agree to take up arms against Russia. That's a theory. Okay? But Russia has exactly one path to victory, and that is to cause as much instability and violence as possible within Europe. And the best way to do that is by forcing the Europeans to mass mobilize their population. Okay? But for that to happen, what Russia needs to do first is declare total war. What total war means is the mass mobilization of your society. So, what's important for us to appreciate is, so far... Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. It is a special military operation, which means that Russia is relying on volunteers to fight this war. In a time of total war, Russia could mobilize its adult population, and we estimate there are at least 3 million reservists in Russia ready to be called up to arms. Mass mobilization in Russia would... It would force mass mobilization in Europe. And this is how the war is most likely... Will most likely turn out.
Speaker 2I mean, I guess the other thing that's... I mean, listen, Professor, there's a... Sounds like there's a lot of conflict on the way. There's an acceleration underway. What would have to be true for us to sit here in 2036, and for there not to have been a conflict between China and Japan, for the Iran situation to have... Cooled off, the Ukraine war is either, you know, where it is now, or it's regressed. The clean brick memo. That's changed history. So, what are you saying specifically? What would have to be the case for none of these sort of catastrophic things to take place?
Speaker 1Okay. In the year 1995, okay, this was published in 1996, and Yahoo came to power in Israel in 1996. In 1995, we lived in a world of neoliberalism, something called the Washington Consensus. And the idea is... We have developed a new model of history. If people just... traded with each other and consumers just bought goods we would have peace forever okay this is what we call neoliberalism the washington census and bill clinton was the main proponent of this idea and in order to achieve this vision for global peace what he did was promote the oslo peace process which sought to create a two-state solution and bring peace in the middle east right the two-state solution is the palestinians and israelis agreed to live side by side and at that time the main thinking was that once peace happened in the middle east once this two-state solution was created then they would start to trade with each other israel and palestine we brought into the gcc and they would be you part of the global supply chain and once prosperity comes to israel and palestine they would have no need to ever hate each other again this is called the oslo peace process okay and again at that time this was just how policymakers in washington understood the world right it worked in china it worked in japan it worked in germany the japan and germany were these really militant nation states but then we allowed them to trade we allowed their consumers to have air conditioning suvs and now they're just really peaceful people so why can't we do the same thing in israel and palestine so what is the clean break theory what in a sentence the clean break theory is this naya who came into power and basically his argument is we can never ever trust the arabs not to hate us we are israelis we have been promised this land by god and the arabs see us as enemies and whatever we do they will always hate us so screw peace screw compromise let us become the regional hegemon because that is our manifest destiny that is what god told us to do that is what is written in the bible and that's what we were born to do okay and this is something called the clean brick memo and the clean brick memo had three major pillars that have that have all been achieved today okay the first pillar is stop the austral peace process do not give more land to the palestinians because the palestinians are animals and the way to treat animals is by getting the crap out of them okay do not treat
Speaker 2them nicely they will um they will hate you so wait are you saying that the way to stop all of the pessimism that we talked about happening is to stop the peace process and to stop the is by the clean break theory succeeding no no no no what i said was in 1995 there was already a
Speaker 1theory in place called neoliberalism that offered a solution to the israel palestine issue that has been plaguing the middle east for the past few decades and if they had thought that through
Speaker 2then we would live in a very different time okay so to my question my question is and what would have to be the case for this all the things you've described the the wars and the conflict not to happen
Speaker 1right what would have happened is the united states had pressured israel into seeking peace
Speaker 2with the arab nations okay so the u.s need to get israel to be friends with the arab nations yes
Speaker 1you force it because israel simply depend on you for technology for financing for arms israel is the biggest recipient of american foreign policy uh aid so just for those that want to know what
Speaker 2the clean break theory is it was it's called a clean break a new strategy for securing the realm it refers to a prominent 1996 policy documented um and then prepared for benjamin netanyahu by a study group led by american neo-conservative strategists um did he read this memo he commissioned us he commissioned it okay and the key objectives of the clean break are as you said the first one abandoning land for peace which advocated for moving away from the oslo um and the key objectives of the clean break are as you said the first one abandoning land for peace accord's framework shifting to a posture of peace through strength and peace for peace without giving up any territory number two regional dominance it recommended transcending the israel palestine conflict by focusing on weakening regional adversaries specifically advocating for the containment or removal of hostile regimes in iraq and syria and dismantling the iraq syria hezbollah axis and lastly preemptive action it urged israel to abandon defensive containment policies in favor of proactive offensive strategies and that's exactly what israel
Speaker 1is doing today this is what israel has done for the past 30 years it has promoted regime change
Speaker 2in syria in iraq and so the conclusion here is to stop this sort of conflict escalating they have to reverse course with this strategy the u.s needs to contain israel yes okay
Speaker 1but what i'm arguing is it's too late because you've already unleashed these structural forces that will collapse the global trade system in which you can't communicate it's every nation for itself i mean you you've already created the conditions for japan and china to go to war you've already created created conditions for germany and russia to go to war it's no longer you can't put the gene back back in the bottle again what does this you
Speaker 2know a lot of most of us aren't involved in politics so um we just kind of watch this stuff and we have to sort of figure out what to do with our families and our lives in spite of this sort of craziness that we see in the news and the global competition and the global competition and all that stuff what is the advice that you have for the average person the best advice i can
Speaker 1give to the average person is believe in god so i am a product of the meritocracy i received the best education in the world and i feel the best education in the world makes you think the world is materialistic god doesn't exist and as a result in my 20s and 30s and 40s i was a deeply angry depressed frustrated person because if god doesn't exist there's no order and structure to what's going on and it's just complete chaos and there can be no hope or light in chaos and because i married a wonderful woman who i think is really an angel because i have like three beautiful children i do believe there's a plan and a structure and order and reason to the world and i've come in the past two years and it's only been recent okay it's only been the past two years when i have a true belief in god so it's all going to be okay yes great yes but you need to believe in god and you need to believe in god and you need to believe in god you need to focus on your family then it will be all right so don't focus on protesting in the
Speaker 2streets or elections or any of those things or if you believe in god and you focus on your family
Speaker 1sometimes you're compelled to take action because i believe in god i live a life following one simple principle which is speak the truth and i believe in god and i believe in god and i believe in god why am i on your show why did i spend the past month um going on so many different podcasts because it's important people know the truth if you really believe in god if you really focus on your family you have a personal and moral responsibility to speak the truth if you know what's going to happen then speak it why are you doing this what good will do it doesn't matter it's just like your faith is going to happen and you're going to do it and you're going to do it and believe in god compels you to live the truth and to speak the truth and to spread the truth so just because you believe in god doesn't mean okay now i believe in god and now i can just sit back and hide in my room and play computer games all day it doesn't mean that it means if you truly believe in god and you believe there's a plan then you have to take action and you have to participate in the world because why else would god create you
Speaker 2why is god letting all of this stuff happen when i look around the world i see lots of wars and conflict russia ukraine the middle east lots of other things breaking out at the moment why would god let this happen what is the path to wisdom struggle pain failure yeah can we just have the wisdom without though or could you
Speaker 1so we've got a lesson to learn we have many lessons to learn but if you are truly a spiritual person you're thankful for this time because this struggle the suffering will allow us to transcend ourselves where are we here to make a lot of money and drive fast cars are we here to learn what it means to be truly human to learn what love is to develop a deeper connection with god i mean i think We're here, first and foremost, to be truly human. And that means living a life of love, empathy, and imagination. And so we go back to that formula where if you have too much wealth, you have too much fame, you have too much power, it's impossible for you to truly have imagination, empathy, and love. So how do you correct this? Will you create a world of crises? Because in a world of crises, everyone, you and me, we're forced to look deep down and ask ourselves, what is truly important to me? What gives me happiness? What is meaning and purpose in my life? And I think the answer is, it's my love for the people around me. And that's the answer that we'll all come to. And once we come to this answer, then I think that is the great spiritual awakening that could possibly redeem all of humanity.
Speaker 2Professor, what's the most pertinent thing that's front of mind for you at the moment that we haven't talked about?
Speaker 1Well, I mean, we did talk about the coming conflict between the two. China, Japan, and I worry a lot about that.
Speaker 2What about AI? We didn't talk about that. And that's kind of overlaid on all of the stories we've talked about because it's to do with robotics, it's energy, it's semiconductors, chips, it's US, China.
Speaker 1Yeah. So that's a great question. And so if we go back and talk about global supply chains, this formula is very important to understand. Technology equals specialization times globalization. So in a time when global supply chains are breaking down, in a time of war, AI cannot make that leap into AGI. So what will happen is AI will be repurposed as a control grid rather than AI developing the intelligence necessary to reduce scarcity, to solve the most pressing medical problems of humanity, to solve climate change. AI will be repurposed to monitor, and surveil all of us.
Speaker 2I think that's going to happen irrespective of, you know, I think governments are going to be increasingly interested in and capable of monitoring all of us all the time. Because we have cameras, we're here in New York City at the moment, there's cameras everywhere. They're just a little bit dumb. They don't really talk to each other. Yep. With AI, they can all talk to each other. That's right. Professors walking down the street, and he's off his way to this hotel, and now he's in a hotel.
Speaker 1I agree that is the most likely trend. But what I'm saying is, all these crises will accelerate this trend. Because let's just say you have a siege of New York City. Well, Palantir will use this opportunity to develop autonomous drone warfare that is controlled by AI. So is that your big concern with AI, is surveillance? That's not the big risk I see. The big risk I see is how AI can cheapen the human experience. How AI is, how AI is almost dehumanizing. Because what people like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel and Sam Ullman are saying is, computers are so much smarter than us. And it could be true that AI will eventually be able to do mathematics, do medical diagnostics much more efficiently than we are. But ultimately, we as humans, we're here to love, imagine, and be kind to other people. And that's not the case. That is what the human experience is. And if we focus too much on AI, that diverts and distracts us from our true mission, which is one of spiritual growth.
Speaker 2Our true mission is spiritual growth. What do you, what gives you hope?
Speaker 1Well, the only thing that gives me hope are my children, right? You, man, Chris. But I'm here because of Chris. Honestly, if I didn't have children, first of all, I don't think I would be this successful because I wouldn't have much purpose and meaning in my life. But honestly, at the same time, I think that while children and I were suddenly this famous, I would become very corrupted very fast. I would just focus on the fame. I would try to make as much money as possible because while children, the only purpose in life is competition against others, right? To prove that, I am materially more successful than other people. And so I would just try to make as much money as possible for myself in my 50 minutes of fame. But now that I have children, I'm much more concerned about building a legacy for them and setting a good example. Are you worried about Chris's future? I'm not. You know. I'm not worried about his future.
Speaker 2Why?
Speaker 1Because my wife and I have loved him to the best, of our ability. And the fact that we love him gives him the confidence to live his life to the fullest. We see every day Chris as a gift from God.
Speaker 2But if the world is collapsing, in your words, and Chris is in that world, are you not concerned? I'm not at all concerned.
Speaker 1Because we are here in order to have a spiritual awakening. And all the crises, they will induce deep reflection in order for us to fulfill our purpose. I don't know why Chris is here. When Chris was two years old, he literally told us, Mom, Dad, I'm from another world. And he named that world. And I'm just an alien visiting you guys. And my wife and I, we weren't surprised. We're like, we knew this. Yeah. We knew you were an alien. We knew you came from another world. And we knew that you came here to experience humanity for all our faults and for all our problems. And we see you, we love you, but we will do whatever we can to empower you on your mission. And we're going to try our best because ultimately it's your life, it's your mission, and we cannot ever control you. Love is about trust. Love is about liberation. Liberation from your own anxieties, and liberation from the need to control others.
Speaker 2Professor, we have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question for the next, not knowing who they're leaving it for. The question left for you is, what is your biggest challenge and how are you working on fixing it?
Speaker 1My biggest challenge is my fear, my doubt, my paralysis. I went to the US border yesterday, and now I'm afraid that I will never be allowed back in the United States after I leave. I'm afraid that I might get banned from a lot of countries because all I do is talk trash about different countries. I've talked trash about China, I've talked trash about Canada, I've talked trash about the United States. If I get banned from all three countries, I'd be in a lot of trouble. And so my constant challenge is to maintain my faith in God, maintain my faith in my family, maintain my faith in my family, and maintain my faith in my purpose.
Speaker 2I hope you do. And you have a wonderful son. He's so curious, is the vibe that I got from him. He's a gift from God. Very, very curious. I just met him in the green room then, and he was like, he's playing with some Play-Doh and lots of toys and stuff like that. And I'm not surprised that he is your son from the 15 seconds I spent with him because he's very, very curious and clearly going to be a very smart young man. So congratulations. Thank you. Thank you.
PodcastTranscript AI