The LeBron Sweepstakes. Plus, Analytics in the NBA. | Real Ones

We'll swap in ruins, look at my neck here. Michael Pina in a second, very special guest. We got Roger and Howard out for today. So we went into the ball painting. We got, front of the shelf, Michael Pina. We basically asked the biggest questions going into free agency. And then we asked the biggest questions of free agency, tried to answer them, even did some little predictions, way too early predictions for next season. It was a fun episode, myself, Michael Pina, real ones, up next, Cliff, Victoria, play the theme music. What's popping, real ones, Logan Bird, I'm here. Michael Pina there, man, very quick, great summer edition to real ones. How you doing, brother? I'm doing great, man. How are you, Logan? I'm kicking. I'm here. I'm slow motion with the potion. I'm trying to get to the ocean. You know, but we got you here because we want to ask the biggest questions of free agency, the biggest questions that I have drawn up in a stream of consciousness. So you ready to go? I'm going to press shuffle and just go right through. Are you ready to go? Beautiful. I cannot wait. I bet. First question that I have, based on the circumstances that we have seen and all the breaking news that we have seen, should the Lakers or should the Lakers have not kept LeBron James? I do not think that they should have kept him. I think that this was the opportunity where you had to break free. You had to do it amicably if possible and they succeeded in doing that. You had to pivot towards building around Luka and Austin Reeves. And so from that perspective right there, like Grand Slam did the job pretty much everything that's happened after that has been somewhat of a disaster, I feel like. And the fact that they've spent $460 million or whatever it is on no one who will ever make an all-star team, maybe Austin Reeves, well I should say, but you spend all that money, you give away all of your draft capital and the end result is what, like are we ever going to win the West with this? I don't see it. But that's my question to you though. That's my question to you. I think that like if I knew what was on the table, if I'm the Lakers right now, I'm going to, I'm going to keep LeBron James with the hubris and all of that. I think that that's what you do, right? Like if you're the Los Angeles Lakers, if you know that there isn't anybody out there that is going to replace said LeBron James or replace said Rudy Hatchamora, I'm just saying, man, if you're going to spend that much money for Walker Kessler, you're going to spend LeBron money for Walter Kessler. I think that's a dying proposition. I'm not going to do that. I don't, like if that's my question to you, do you, if you knew what you were going to get in the long term, are you going to keep, why does this keep LeBron James, right? If I knew I was going to get Mamu and Quentin Grimes and Walker Kessler and he's going to cost me two firsts and I'm going to have to pay him $30 million this year. Then yeah, I think my calculus could change a little bit. Maybe like LeBron for one more season, I just, like philosophically though, I just think that you had to at some point, I know that they finished last year really well. On the stretch, LeBron found that new role, muted a little bit and it worked and I don't know. It's a tough situation for them and it's very awkward and philosophically, I would have moved on from Luca, but if you're asking me, like, am I happy with what has happened? No, if I'm the Lakers, I'm not happy at all. I think that this is like kind of terrible. The other thing that just fascinates me about LeBron is just like the spectacle of their free agency after all of these years, right, where your, in essence, he is a great older type of player that, you know, can fit within a role on your team, but we're having the white board, we're having all of these things. I think the biggest thing that I come away with that is with the spectacle is like, what do you need to lower LeBron in this day and age and what do you think you should like need to lower him? Like does it need to be all of these pitch decks and, and, and, and tribute videos and, you know, draft capital or like, like, why are these teams doing this at this particular moment? Do they need to? Yeah, I think that it's a, the, the question is like, what situation would LeBron turn of pretty good team to a champion? And I see a couple options here where that makes sense, but they are very few and far in between in terms of like the, on the scale of the importance of this decision that he's making. Like, if he were to pick Cleveland, I don't think Cleveland's going to win the championship and I don't even think that they would, I don't, I just don't see that happening based on, you bring LeBron, you bring Hardin, Donald Mitchell, signed his contract, et cetera, but I just don't see that they lost some depth pieces. I just don't see it. Um, Denver, different situation potentially, but at the same time, I'm like, I want to see the rest of that roster. Are you, is that mean we're losing Payton Watson? Um, are we still cutting salary with Cam Johnson or Christian Brown? Like, what are we doing there? Um, so I guess like, fundamentally, if you were to ask me like, where would LeBron go and then look, the Warriors, I'm sorry, like, that's just not, they're not winning the championship if he goes there. I think I'm sorry. I don't think he's going to the Warriors. I never really was going to go to the Warriors. I think they were both a leverage play and the Warriors are interesting because on one hand, like, yeah, they do have, they have every, all the remnants of a pre retirement home for him, right? You actually look at it. And that's what they were kind of selling him. But I think with, I think what they forgot about is like LeBron wants to compete and the way that you show LeBron or any free agent that you're willing to compete is by actually making moves outside of just like a wish and a prayer that we get this superstar. And I think that that's kind of been their, um, Achilles Hill over the last five, six years, right? At least the post-Bob Myers era where you have, um, things being done. There's a lot of weight and sea with this front office in a way that you can't really attract anybody at this day and age. It's like, Hey, do you want to play with 38 year old Steph and then Dremont? And I don't think, I think the calculation that people have in the building is different from calculation that you have lead wide, which is, yeah, man. Um, it's cool. I love them. I think they're game. They revolutionized the game. But like, what else is there? Like, what other, what, what, what, how are also you going to build this roster? It's not bringing back Al Hoerfer and bringing Meltzen. That's not inspiring confidence in anything and anyone. 100%. You know what I mean? That's my worries take. I appreciate that take. I agree with it. And I think that that's why he will not go there. Um, but it's at the same time. It's like, how many situations can you name where it's like, we're adding LeBron. So that means by that's, by just adding LeBron. We are, we either that the favorites or we have the, we can puff our chest out there and be like, we can win, win this whole thing. And I think that the teams that can say that are already awesome. Like the San Antonio Spurs, like at LeBron and you're incredible and you can easily win the NBA championship. Um, and these aren't like realistic destinations. Like the Oklahoma City Thunder, so I, like, I don't think that him going to the Minnesota Timberwolves is transforming Minnesota and making them a team that can win the championship based on how that roster is constructed right now. What, like, am I, am I underselling LeBron? I don't mean to be disrespectful a little bro, but like I just, I think what you're seeing right now, like, there's a, um, there's two sides of this. There is what his representation is actually putting out there in terms of like the made for timeline made for TV type of stuff versus whatever the actual plan is, right? Like I think that they're what LeBron has showed us over the years is that he has to have some sort of spectacle with whatever he does, like something mundane is playing golf, right? And so what I'm seeing is like, there is a real urge to matter from him, which can be annoying on one hand. Just like, dude, like, just make, I think it's getting to a point where it's like, dude, just make your decision, man, like, in a lot of ways, the league is starting to pass this generation by, right? Because like the thing is, I don't believe any of those, maybe the calves, but like the way the calves are constructed, like, I don't believe in the calves as a championship contender. But like, maybe they have the best chance of getting to the Eastern Conference Finals, right? But short of that, like, I don't see another team that he can go to that is just going to win the title because he's on there. And because of that, it's like, well, let's worry about these other, let's put that worry towards other teams that are actually going to win the title. We're like, I want to pay more attention to the spurs now. I want to pay more attention to other things more non-thrown related. And I think that's, that's something that LeBron and his representation is kind of going through right now where it's like, this is like the last big hurrah where they matter on this scale where everything that they say matters on a certain scale until they were and it's not really gonna matter as much, right? And you start to see a lot of people from this generation who are now kind of making themselves a part of the story and using the lead to do that. And I feel like this is this LeBron's turn to do that. You see that with Dreymon, you see that with just a lot of like, people that are podcasting on the way out of the league. And I think that this is like LeBron's last like huge moment to take advantage of the attention. And he's just soaking and basking in that. It's a headline grab for real. And Kudos to him to be able to do it at 41, turning 42 years old this season. Let me ask you this, what is the best team for him? Where do you want to see him play? What do I want to see him play? I think I want to see him play in Denver, honestly. Like I just want to see him play alongside Logan. Logan, that is that is objectively the correct answer. So I just thank you, I congratulate you there. But like I think it would give him the opportunity to actually win, you know, and actually be in the conversation one last time. Truly, I think that all the other teams in Eastern conference that he's linked to are like inherently flawed, right? Like I don't like Miami. I think they have, I think this their roster is just flawed, right? They need to get a little bit of shooting, but a little bit. And I think they need to get a little bit of shooting. But they're well coached, right? Like I'm not betting against Bolster to do something to figure it out. And I think they would be one of the best teams in the Eastern conference, but I think they're so fatally flawed that I don't know if they could win in the post season setting. Um, and then Cleveland, I'm not betting on James Harden and Donovan Mitchell to bring you home to playoff series. I just can't, I literally can't do that. And I don't even look bronca to overcome that. So that being said, let's, you know, if you want to compete with the OKC's in the San Antonio's, I think that Denver gives you the best shot. I think that's like the best answer for basketball. That's the best answer for like just the league. I think having Denver be a little bit more formidable. I know I said the other thing about, we'll see what they do with their salary cap and situation and how they deal with the luxury tax and the repeater tax and all that. But if they were actually to bring everybody back and add LeBron and stay healthy, like that's a team that can definitely win the NBA championship. So we'll see. I think that that would be fun. Let's, um, I got another question for you. Um, what is the discourse around Jalen Brown, the trait of Jalen Brown, say about the analytics movement in hoop? Let's have a philosophical conversation with no notes. I think, I think that the word analytics is completely useless at this point. And most of the people who use it to paint this extremely broad brush, don't know exactly what they're saying. Um, I think like, like analytics, what, like when people say, I just, I'm like, what do you mean? Are you talking about his true shooting percentage? Are you talking about his on off numbers? Are you talking about his estimated plus minus? So like, what are you talking about when you say his analytics are bad? It doesn't make, it like, it doesn't make sense. So to me, that's the most frustrating thing is someone who, like I love looking at numbers and stats and data points to inform what my eyes are seeing and telling me, um, as I watch basketball. And I think that that's the whole point of statistics, right? Like anyone who just uses statistics is missing something. Anyone who ignores statistics is missing something. So you want to blend these two things together. And I think Jalen is just as really interesting test case where people are going way too far in one direction thinking that, oh, the analytics say this. So he's bad. The Celtics are better when he's off the court. So that means he sticks. It's like, well, that's, that is a deranged opinion. Um, he's not the seventh best player on any team in the NBA. He's not the 50th best player in the league. Like these are silly stupid things that people are saying. And they, they're, they're, these opinions are coming from people who are in, you know, analytics departments. And I just think it's like gone off the rails. And, um, if you say analytics, I need you to be more specific is generally how I feel based on everything that's being said about Jalen Brown right now. I think that analytics and numbers can say whatever you want them to say in a given moment. And I think that that's what we're seeing during this process, right? And like, even what it's funny, because like even within the leaks of the analytics that we do get right from at least the boss inside. And I don't want anyone to tell me like, oh, Boston isn't talking behind the scenes on Jalen Brown. They absolutely have been in even Brad Stevens. I'm not going to say that he himself has been like leaking to people, but people within his department have definitely been out here throwing these leaks to people around the league. And I think what, like, I think it about the Bobby Marks thing. I'm thinking about the Tom Habestrow who as a person that like I do love. And I think we both do love Tom Habestrow. But what I'm like, absolutely. The leaks that do come through there are one thing that I want from our media members to do is cipher out information a lot better than we are because me and you go to arenas all the time. How much dumb shit do you hear from people that want to tell you? That will have legitimate doves in the league that want to use analytics or use any type of thing to tell you something bad about a player that they don't like. Right. And I think that's what you're seeing with the Boston Celtics right now, which is they say one thing publicly. And then privately, they're saying a completely different thing, right? Like I, I, you've read about Jalen before I've written about Jalen before. I've gotten Stevens on the record talking about, hey, man, you know, what I had a real conversation. This was after the, um, this was after the Kevin Durant trade, uh, rumors were, um, and it, and it was that spring afterwards and he was like, and he was telling about a conversation that, uh, that he had with Tatum and Brown. And basically he wanted to tell Jalen Brown, no, this isn't happening. No, this isn't happening. And clearly it was happening. You don't like this person. They have showed you time and time again. And I know this is a conversation about analytics, but a quick side note, it was just, that's what made me really frustrated with the Brad Stevens, you know, press conference was. It was like, not necessarily like you were lying in our face, but it was more of like, it's not what you think it is. When all of your actions show, this is what you think it is and how you feel about Jalen Brown and how that goes back to the analytics was. I feel like, you know, people were leaking analytical things to writers about how they actually feel about Jalen Brown as a person, right? And I think you saw that through with just like this nonsensical taste. If somebody tells you that Jalen Brown is a, is the seventh best player on your team, that's not some worth repeating that I'm sorry. I don't know. I call that person's boss. Yeah. Or we like, I'm not going to listen to it. I'm not going to listen to that. Like, I'm not even going to put that in the ether at all, right? And even just like, it's been used to say nonsensical things about a player they don't like. But Peyton Pritchard is going to make a Jalen Brunson leap. Like that, just like if he, if he was going to do that, he would have done that, right? Derek White, if he was going to be Jalen Brown, he would have been Jalen Brown, right? So like, that's what I want as a basketball community for us to get better at. It's just like, I know that we're here for clicks and I know that we're here to, you know, see our name over there on the, on the, on the, on the flash cards on Bleach Report and stuff, but like, you could do it in a smarter way. That's what I think this Jalen Brown Friasco has taught me is that we don't have to do it this way. Yeah. And I think that this could have been a really smart conversation because it's a fascinating one. Jalen Brown's a fascinating player. It is true that there are a ton of impact metrics that are like, this guy isn't good, okay? And it's true that he's never been particularly efficient. And it's true that his assist to turnover ratio has never been impressive. And he's never been a particularly great passer and he takes tough shots and he sabotages that he's a winner though, but he's a winner, bro. Like you know what I'm saying? That's the biggest match that's here, right? He's a fucking winner. Yeah, that's why it's a very complicated discussion. I mean, the guy won finals MVP, he's won more games than anyone since entering the league. He was second team all in VA this year. He was sixth for MVP. Like that stuff doesn't happen by accident, right? So you're toggling between these two things and then hanging over this is the second apron and the ape. I should say the apron era and the fact that paying two guys, 35% of the cap is something that no team in the league does that except the Golden State Warriors with Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry. Like there was no other team that we've already, we've already established that they are in a completely other generation to ask altogether. They're not even thinking about the now and how to figure out stuff now. Yes. So no one wants to be like mimic the Warriors right now, no one wants that. So like they're in a tough spot. So if you're the Celtics and you look at the last two teams that won the NBA championship, right? And this is something that I'm echoing that Brad kind of said in his presser where it's like, okay, you have the thunder they win. They had a ton of depth, they had Shay making 30% of the cap and then they had like no one and else even close to that. And in terms of high level contributors, like Jalen Williams and Chad Holmgren, who had not signed their max deals yet, or had not had their max deals kick in yet, right? Last year you have, or this year, you have the Nix, and you have this very strange situation where their best player takes a massive pay cut, and he's the third highest paid player on the team. He makes less money than Karl Anthony Towns, who's the only guy who makes 35% of the cap, and then you have OGN and OB making more than him. And by the way, that's gonna continue up until this season. Like next season, Jalen Brunzel will be the third highest paid player on the team. That's remarkable, and that's not really repeatable. Like no one's gonna be doing that. So, and you look at the Nix, and it's like, well the Nix, they're busing up right against the second apron, even still, and they just lost their backup center who was critical to them, and their playoff, on their finals run, and they lost them to the Celtics. So it's just a really, like, it's a really complicated. - But LePina even now would know, right? Like we're, yeah, you're right on all those things. We need depth to win a championship, right? But you want to go trade? You want to go trade for Yannis and Dedekumbo? - You are gonna have depth. You're basically gonna trade one high spending, one highly paid player for another. So that's the other thing that I keep saying about with Brad Stevens is, yes, that is logical. But that wasn't the actions that you were actually trying to take in this exercise here. So like, and then you tried it for Paul George, who I guess is another asset, cool. But what is your goal here, as you're, I guess, right? Like I guess that was a thinking. But like, what is your goal here? Is it to win a championship? Because you just basically punt it on your window right now. Because at this very moment, you have Tatum, who we don't know what he's going to be going into next year. And then we have Paul, playing him alongside Paul George, who at his peak would have been great. But right now, like he is a very solid role player who can play great defense in a specialized role as we saw last season. This isn't a championship roster, it just isn't. So you basically just punted on a championship roster after you tried to trade for another superstar to continue your championship trajectory. But then like all of a sudden you just decide that you don't want the player that helped you become a champion of the first place. It just doesn't make any sense. - I think a part of it, well, first of all, like Yannis is way better than Jaylen Brown. Do you agree with that? - Yeah. - I agree with that. - I think. - And Rose, lead back to your reasoning? Not liking Jaylen Brown. - Not liking Jaylen Brown at 35% of the cap, which is I think a fair thing to believe. And it's kind of like we're thrusting this issue onto Philly, and Philly's now got to also deal with the fact that he's extension eligible. And are you going to add two years and $140 million onto his contract and pay him $70 million when he's 33, 34 years old? Because we didn't want to do that. - Wait, here's another elephant in the room. This is the other elephant in the room. The league has successfully, they've been trying to do this for years, going into the ever since the 90s when the players got 57% of BRI. They have successfully clawed back the players earning power because what they're going to do is they're going to try to convince the Jaylen breads of the world, hey, you like the NFL does. Hey, you take less money. We could build a formidable team around you, right? Like, and it's going to incentivize players to take less, which is damn. PA, y'all did a doozy on that one. That wasn't, that was not great for you guys. They got it. - It is, man. - But this is what's going to happen. - Does that just going to be like, it's going to be teams trying to convince players who take less money and then villainizing them when they don't and then reaping the rewards and profit on it? And that's what we're seeing with this Jaylen Brown thing. - Yes, it is a disaster. The system is a disaster for players. Even just like, I'm just thinking about like the fact that if you use the full mid-level, which is a tool to get better, right? If I use the full mid-level, I'm hard-capped at the first apron. So I'm hard-capped in a number and I can't spend any more money. So I can't go to the owner and be like, let's get, like this was having Bill Chisholm yesterday in the press conference talking about money moves versus basketball moves and it's like, my hands are tied, you know? I literally-- - And as a fan, that's what I want to. - As a fan? - It's terrible. - It's terrible. - It's terrible. - Anyways, let's keep it going, let's keep it going. I have another philosophical question for you. What does Jama Ratten have to do to make this trade work in his favor? I'm not talking about the picks. I'm not talking about the deal is done. It was bad for rules, bad for rules, good for rules, good for it. But Jama Ratten has a basketball player and just his future within the league. But what does he think he has to do to make this work? I have a couple of reasons, but I really don't know what you got to say. - Well, number one is just like, obviously, not to like, and finalize, but like, behave, you know, stay out of trouble, et cetera. That would be terrific, a first start, which he has done of late, for sure. Stay healthy, number two, be on the court. And like, I want to see him look. I don't know if this is possible. I don't know if the guy who was, I would have finished like seven for MVP in 2023 or something like that. He was his third or fourth year when he was absolutely incredible. - It was that. - He was 21-22. - Okay, and he was the most exciting player. Like to me, he was the most exciting player in the whole league. I loved watching Jama Ratten. I don't know if that player, I just haven't seen him in a very long time. I know he's only 26 years old, I think. Like, have the injuries cut up to him? Is he, you know, he said the thing about, I don't want to dunk anymore because I've got to preserve my body. It's like, just very concerning stuff. So I want to see the highlights and I want to see efficiency and I want to see him try on defense and just tone it down. (laughs) I guess it's like, I don't know. I don't know, I'm not very optimistic about this situation, man. - Just learn from Dave, man. I think Dave had a lot of game to share for you, man. And I don't think that he has to be, I don't think he has to be, I don't think that he has to be Jama Rat anymore, if that makes sense, right? Like, just be whatever comes next. And like, if you have to, like, he is at the stage right now where Alan Iverson was with the end of Denver going into Detroit, we don't want him to get to Memphis, right? We don't want him, we don't want him to be the Alan Iverson of Memphis. We want to see is, you know, man, let's some reinvent who you are. Now, you might not be the star of the team, but at least like, this is just like a stop through to get back to your next destination to be like just a different person yourself, become a better shooter, become somebody that can, maybe be like a very explosive role type of player or a complimentary player, right? Whatever that means. And I think that, I think the rehabilitation will take care of itself if he just like, lets people in in a way that I don't think he has, you know? This is just going to be a clean start. And there's a lot of people in his year, you know, especially in Memphis, and like, I think he will to a little bit under being the star. And I think this is a good situation where he just, he doesn't necessarily have, he just has to be just jaw. And I'm excited to see that from him. I'm excited to see, I think everything else will fall into place if that happens. I think if Micah Norris says, hey, you got to come off the bench, do it. Do whatever the team needs you to do and win. And I think that winning will cure a lot, staying like healthy upright. We'll do a lot for you. And just remind people that you're an incredible talent. But I'm a little cynical on this subject, but I hope for the best for him. And I want to see the old jaw. Like I want to see that. It's, he's incredible. Let's say if we break, we're going to go back to the West Coast, talk a little bit about Denver. All right, man, how much does Yoke it's not signing his extension scare you if you're a Denver Nuggets fan? If I'm a fan, I'm, yeah, I'm going to be, I'd rather you sign it, that would be cool. I also, I don't know, maybe I'm totally naive and wrong. I take him at his word and I see also the financial incentive for him to not sign and sign next summer. And I'm like, okay, cool. I get it, you keep saying you only want to be here. This is where you're raising your family. And you can make what, 80 million extra dollars if you wait a year. I get it, cool, man, do that. And retire with the nuggets and I have nothing to worry about. We'll see if that happens. And maybe I'm being super naive about it. And also like, I would like you to sign it. So just sign it. So we don't, I don't have to think about it anymore. That would be also terrific. Because I know how the NBA works. And if we have a nightmare season and Jamal Murray gets hurt in a Thanksgiving and we don't even make the playoffs, are you really going to sign that contract? Like, you know what I mean? So yeah, but so like when I got flashbacks of that of Yarnas last season hearing this, right? And I was doing it like a mental compare contrast of man. On one hand, he say. He's, I think Yoke just never lied to us, right? Like, or, and never felt like what his word was nefarious in any way. Whereas, yeah, it's like, I never quite believed him. And not even just through this season, through his actions and what we've heard behind the scenes of, you know, it's always, it's kind of like the Celtics thing where it was like publicly, I'm saying this, I wanna stay in Milwaukee in Privilees, just telling us representation, get me the hell out of here as fast as possible, right? I don't get that sense from Yoke, I simply don't. Like, I do get the sense that, yeah, I'm going to resign. I don't even get it as like pressure, right? Like, I mean, it's, I just, I don't think I don't see, I don't see it even as pressuring the front office. Like, I, he, he has been, in the way that Yannis was consistently kind of two faces in the right word, right? But, you know, maybe it is, maybe it is, right? Like, he probably was, he was. He wanted the love, but he did, it wasn't true to himself and that kind of cost him a few years and made cost him an NBA title that he probably left on the table because he waited so long. That being said, I don't feel that from Yoke, and I think that ultimately you will sign. I would, I'm not scared of like him being a flyerist. I'm just not, I get it. I'm scared of, I'm scared for him, mostly like, I don't want him to get injured before he gets a stupid bag, right? But other than that, like, I'm not that concerned. And I think, I think one thing these players maybe should learn, like, to just to lose their lever just a little bit better, right? Where, if it's clear your team isn't doing anything to help you, right? And has this been terrible towards you? Then it's like, y'all, I need to cut. But like, consistently the nuggets have done right by Yoke's, or at least try to overhauling their roster, just letting all assets, keeping all assets on the table to try to keep him. Even last year, just revamping their roster on the fly is what you're supposed to do in the modern NBA. It just injuries just killed him last year. And I don't think that's a slight to him. I think that's just the brakes. - I think that Janus cares a lot about what people think about him. And I think Yoke could not give two shits what anyone thinks about him. Based on how he's acted and behaved throughout his entire career, I think that's like the fundamental difference between these two guys. And I think that Yoke had his full trust in the nuggets. But I also, if he is using this as a leverage play, yeah, it's super smart. Like, you guys are talking about trading a starter to keep, like technically, you're talking about cutting salary, trading a starter, either Cam Johnson or Christian Brown, so that we can keep a guy who, in Peyton Watson, who was coming off the bench. And you think that after losing in the first round, this is gonna get us closer to the NBA championship. We'll see how that all that happens and plays out, but I don't think he's gonna leave. I would be shocked. - Let's go to Toronto. I haven't gotten your thoughts yet on the Raptor. So what do you think? What is your, give me your Eastern Conference power rankings at this very moment? - I mean, I gotta go next one, right? I don't wanna disrespect the defending champions. Even though I do think Mitch Robinson, two Andre Drummond is, that's a steep one. - We at Layout and we have Cliff in the chat, huh, we have Cliff in the chat and all caps Philly. And that brought me back to the pre-pod discussion that we should bring on to here. Can you just give your Philly discussion, please? Can you just, can you crush his dreams and tell us why the Philadelphia 76ers may or may not make it to the promised lay? - I mean, I had Cliff reading me players who are on this roster as if it was like the 92 dream team and I'm like, no, that there is no death there. I think this is a six man team. Like, who's giving me minutes in a playoff series that I can trust besides, and I haven't said anything about Joelle and Beade and the fact that he won't be able to be healthy in the playoffs, which is a whole different other can of worms. - What? Go ahead. - I gotta, this is gonna pay me, this is gonna pay me Cliff. I kinda got a role with Pete on this one because of their lack of depth. I do like Jalen Brown and him as a two way player. I am probably higher on him than most, but I saw him be struggle to get through a playoff series. And he's only getting a year older. And I love Maxi, but you need to build, it's kinda like Luca in a sense, right? Like, they're in this weird situation, like the Lakers were in where you kinda gotta pick a side especially with this apron, which we've already just said is just the big bad wolf in this situation. But if Maxi's your guy and we all know it is, you gotta make moves to build around him. And until you actually do that and actually have a real conversation about what it means value is, it's also a terrible time. You're right, he signed his big deal and just was injured. And you can't do like an incentive based deal for your best player, one of your best players in franchise history in that way. It's just bad optics. And so they're just gonna catch 22 until they figure that part out. And that's just gonna be the struggle of the new NBA as we know it right now is just, we're not gonna get continuity because we're always gonna have to tinker and always gonna have to tinker based on injuries and just general bad luck. It's gonna be tough for a lot of people's teams. - I'm just looking at this roster and it's like Justin Edwards, Dale and Terry, I really hooked Porti. Porti was like a big signing for the Sixers. I like Dean Wade. I think Simon's is okay at that number. I think there's just a lot of cooks in the kitchen. I think Jalen Brown wanted his own team. This is not Jalen Brown getting his own team. I think the Sixers gave up two pretty good draft picks also in dumping Paul George. And I wonder how much they were incentivized to get off of Paul George's contract versus taking on Jalen Brown's contract is something I've been thinking about and that I shared with Cliff, which made him upset before we started recording. But this could be a, I don't wanna say disaster. I think that's too strong. Definitely too strong. But there's definitely that. - Bigger disaster now. Bigger disaster now. I'm sure this potential disaster. The Sixers of the Celtics. - I think the Celtics are gonna be good. I do. I think they're gonna be good. Health permitting. Health permitting that I think they're gonna be good. - It's a big game, bro. - If Paul George plays 25 games, obviously, we have a time to say. - Tatum couldn't get to a series last year. Or this year, he couldn't even get to a playoff series. - Yeah, well, he's over a year removed from the injury. He's over a year removed from the injury. I think he'll be okay. He has a full off season now to recover. - Okay. - If you assume that Jason Tatum's gonna be looking like he did before, I think this team is very good. And I think Mitchell Robinson and Keda is a really good center front court rotation. - Which is what happens if you can barely stay healthy though. - Hey, play, give me 18 minutes. Give me 18, 20 minutes, man. Big fella. - Okay, all right, man. - I think they're fine. I think they're good. - I think there's a little bias on there, man. I think there's a little, just like a tiny bit right there. Yeah, I think there's a little bit too much benefit at a doubt. - Mizzoula ball, baby. Mizzoula ball. - Right. - No, I think they'll be okay. I don't think it'll be a disaster. - What do you think is gonna happen with Lamello and Ant? What kind of hubris are you expecting out of Minnesota? - I think that that could be super fun. I don't think that they're very small right now, I'll say. So I don't know what their title chances are. But I think this is great for Ant personally. I think this, he'll have the most fun playing basketball that he's had in a while, minus a few, you know, Lamello's pension for the one-legged step back from 35 feet with 16 on the shot clock. If we could cut those down a little bit, I think we'll be in really good shape. But just having someone who can, like, come and dear in offense, who can play fast, who can spread the floor, who can, who I can trust to, when Lamello's on the court, like Charlotte's offense was absolutely sensational last season. So someone I can trust to run things when I don't have the ball. Let me play off the ball a little bit more. I like it for him. The team, I know this is like kind of one of the same, and I'm kind of splitting hairs here. For the team, I don't know what this means in terms of like championship contention or anything like that. It's like, I think it's a huge gamble. But for Ant and Lamello, I think that that can fundamentally work at least on one side of the ball. I think, yeah, I don't know, man. The sacrifice, yeah, yeah. Hey, I hear you and I feel you with what you're saying. I'm not like going to die on this. I think ultimately, like, Ant wants to win, right? This isn't a winning roster. And over the last, I mean, even if they got LeBron, it's not a winning roster. And over the last five years, they've systematically gutted a team that goes to the Western Conference Finals. And you have been relying so much more every year on ants' brilliance to overcome, you know, your hubris. I hope that Lamello figures it out enough offensively to not even offensively. Just figures it out just as a team, from a team concept, you still got to play defense. You still has to be serious, right? Like one year is one year. but like it's a total mentality of all of this that builds a champion, which is ultimately what Antis striving for. And so like, sure, on a possession in the middle of January on a Tuesday, it's great that you could have somebody else run the offense. But do you trust the mental to be able to do it late May? We don't know because we've never actually seen it. And the time that in the small sample size of big time basketball that we've had, we had a roller coaster finishing against Miami, and we had a no show to end the season against Orlando, who a week before that, there were, there were whispers that they could undercoach, right? So like, I think we're forgetting all of that too. I get it, but I think sometimes we're looking at it from a hive mind, a hive 2k mind, about how this is going to go. Like, oh, 2k, I'm going in three straight chips with them. But in real life, I don't, I don't, it's a tough sell for me. It's a very tough sell. Totally valid opinion. 100%. So I don't like it for and that's why I don't like it for and because Ant wants to win multiple titles. And he's not going to do that based on the current conditions. Yeah, I would say like, if they didn't do it though, then I'm like, all right, are you still just going to get double and triple teamed and nothing's different? You know, at least this was a little bit of a shakeup. I think Rudy might kill the mellow ball this year. That's possible. He might murder him on the basketball court. Yeah. So you're, so you're saying that like you just said that it'll be a good time, but somebody might get murdered. It's basically what you're saying in the Minnesota Timberwolves season this season. That's what I'm doing. I'm doing that. I'm doing that Brad Stevens double talk. That's what I'm doing right now. Exactly. And I'm, and I'm, and I'm Bill, I'm Bill Chisholm just like actually, we are trying to spend money. We actually are trying to build a container. Oh man. That was tough. That was tough. I still don't get why so you're still on the you're still on that. You're still on that they're going to be good. You think they're going to just like win like what 60 games? What is good to you? I think they'll be good. I think the roster is better than it was last year, and they won 56 games and the second best offense in the NBA. Like look, I think it does come down to health for sure. It comes down to health. It comes down to the internal improvement from some of the young guys taking the next step forward. That's not a guarantee. This was, I mean, fundamentally it's a gamble. What they did is a gamble to increase their optionality and get the draft picks and get a player in Paul George who, you know, a player in Paul George who makes more sense maybe in the system next to Tatum. Like I get their understanding or their, their rationale for doing everything, I guess. I think they'll be fine. I don't know if they're going to win the championship, but I think they'll be good. They're not, it's not happening. It's not going to happen. It's simply not going to happen. All right, let's say we break and on the other side, we're going to make predictions. Okay. Let's make some just out of the box predictions. Who's your sleeper for next year? I like Toronto. I like Toronto a lot. Yep. I'm always a Kawai, I've always been a Kawai person. I don't. I think Kawai is like a walking sleeper agent in general, right? Like any time you go to the floor, like they, you never know what's going to happen, right? Like they could have the greatest season of his career and they don't make the playoffs because they got tired at the end of the season and couldn't and just and lost the lawyers, right? Like that's just, but they could also in the east, it could be a different story. Who knows? Right. I, yes, I still think he's one of like the five best players on the planet. And he can sustain that as he did last year. And I just, I watched Scotty Barnes in the playoffs last year and I like Scotty. What he did in that series against Cleveland was like super, super impressive on both ends of the floor. I loved everything that I saw. And I think defensively, they will be halacious. And like in your jersey, 48 minutes, 94 feet. And I'm going to love watching them play basketball. And if you get to the playoffs and you have Kawai and he's healthy, I'm probably just going to pick your team. That's just how I, that's how reductive I am when it comes to Kawai. So the Raptors are my sleeper, I think, in the Eastern Conference. Can I give you the sixers? Can I set the sixers? Make the case, please. Okay. They have, they have dudes that can just score it. They have, they have dudes that can score and they are tough. Right. Like we didn't think about BJ Edgecombe. That's the other thing that I just want to say that sucks about this CBA, right? Like BJ Edgecombe, his development is going to be thrown way off because of the addition of Jalen Brown, right? Yes. Like you could not have any sort of continuity with this apron whatsoever. Right. And less like you drafts, you have to hit on every draft pick. This is just, this is stupid. Sorry. This is very stupid. This is just all, this is just stupid. Who's winning out of the West? Who's winning the West? The West is going to be fun. Oh, can I, okay. They're not going to win the West, but my, my like general holistic sleeper for this season is the Utah Jazz. That's my team. I'm, I'm, that's, I'm getting on the bandwagon before anyone. That's good. You saw two, you saw two, uh, Darren Peters is suddenly going to come in. Dude, he's cooked at G-leagers and you're like, I'm in the game. Oh, no, I don't know. The game looks so easy for that, dude. You know, it's funny. We, this is like, you know, our version of the next Jordan, right? Which is the next Kobe, which is a weird thing to say. Like, like, we're on the search and look. We weren't even actually on the search for the next Kobe, but Darren Peters and was like, I'm just going to, I'm going to be the next Kobe. And that's what it's going to be. And he's trying so hard. And I keep like saying, like, man, DeMarthe Rosen already tried to do that. Like, you don't have to do that. Just be you. Just be you. Just be your own mentality that devs will work out for people. Yeah. He's, he's, I, yeah, I hope that isn't the case. Everything that you're, you're saying about him, but he keeps saying it. He's had the, did you see the, uh, silent report where he was just trying, he was trying to evoke Kobe on the mamba. Yeah, that's frustrating. Um, but I would have liked for them to keep Walker Kessler. I'm not going to lie. Um, and I think he's good. He's a good starting center. He would have fit there, um, and made them just ginormous. I still like the roster. Quite a bit. I still like the front court. I like he out there. George. I think he can still take another step. Um, and I just think Peterson, like if I know, I, I don't really watch college basketball. So my opinions or whatever about this stuff, but I would have taken Darren Peterson first. I think he's the best player. And you think this is a direct, uh, Odin situation? Potentially. Do you think this could be one of those things? Hopefully, no one gets hurt. Um, not in the heartway. I'm just saying like the, the number one pick was the, what I do feel is like, the number one pick is something. AJ DeBanza is a number one pick, no matter what, right? And he's, the meaning that he's the guy that you have to take in the draft, no matter what. But that tends to kick people in the ass on the back end of history, you suggest. And that's what I mean, what more is it's like an Odin Durant thing where, you know, clearly Durant was the future. And we have the benefit of hindsight of seeing that, but that may be the case. Right. We just got to, we also got to see DeBanza. I mean, I'm going to see him in summer league. I'm sure we're going to see what he does. But also, it's way too early. It's also way, it's a little early. Yeah. So you're, the fact that you're, you call that the jazz a sleeper based on two summer league guys, you're planning this G-leagers and people that are going to be playing in overseas in two months. All that plus John Contra, sign me up. Okay. All right. All right. All right. I'm scared. So who's coming out of your west, who's coming out of the west for you? I want to see. Well, actually, I don't, I don't, I don't think I need to see too much. I think it's the spurs. I, I, you know, I think that Victor women, Yama is just going to get better. Castle's going to get better. Harper is just, I still can't get over what he did in the NBA finals. And I mean, I like their off-season. So far, they like haven't really lost anybody. They add to bias Harris, who's like a nice pickup for what he's going to provide. And they add depth pieces in the front court and the draft, like young big dudes who can spell Wembee. So I, it's either them or the Thunder. I don't really know who else. Yeah. I think that I think from based on what I saw from them in the finals at the biggest stage, I think Dylan Harper is your point guard, but he, he needs a, the key for them is him developing into a game manager, more of a game manager and stop trying to get his own shots every single time. Right. And I think that evolution takes more than one summer. And so, because of that, I think that the, the spurs tend to have a ceiling in a way that, okay, she just doesn't right now in my eyes, right? Like, they lost because I think they lost because a number of reasons, right? Wembee, Yama was incredible. But also like, Jada was, didn't play most of the series and was playing most of that series and the playoffs hobbled, right? If he's back in the fold, there are a lot different team. And AJ Mitchell, AJ Mitchell, right? But they've Thank you very much. but I do think that I would give the edge to OKC right now 'cause I'm still giving the edge to experience right now, only because I think that they're a solid game-managing point guard away from being what they ultimately want to be. They have that in Harper, but he's just so young. And he played great, but he also played like a young player. So I'm gonna blow it OKC just because, I think they just have the slight edge and experience in game. - I will say real quick, I'm not giving up on deer and fox as a basketball player. I think he's still very good. But deer and fox is a, he's a pro, he's getting dinged because of his contract, I think. Also, he didn't play well, but it's his contract. If he had a lower deal and was coming off the bench and being deer and fox, that would be amazing. - Yeah, I think, yeah, totally fair. I don't think they get to the finals without him. And I think he does a lot of, did a lot of really good things even in the, the western conference finals. He was really good when he was healthy. He's also playing through the high ankle sprain. So I'm looking forward to seeing him healthy and I still think he should start. I think Harper should still come off the bench and then I think in Harper's year three, like I think Harper, they should be selling him on win six man of the year for us and run our second team. I think that that's like what they should be selling him on 'cause apparently he was a little unhappy with his role as a rookie. I think that's a fair sell. And then in year three, it's like either your trading fox or fox, you're coming off the bench because Dylan Harper is gonna be our starting point guard. But I think you can still slow roll this a little bit and you kind of have to. - Yeah, we'll see. Who's your sleeper out east and who is your champion? Or who is your eastern conference champion? - I want to see what the Detroit Pistons do still. I think they still have stuff to do. I mean, obviously they got to sign Dürren. That's getting easier by the day. - Yes, I don't understand what's taking so long. I want them to pull the trigger for Trey Murphy, like badly. - Yeah. - I think they're the perfect team for him and he's someone who they can put you over the top and be a missing piece and do whatever it takes to get him as kind of how I feel. And if they were to do that or make another swing for someone else of that caliber with that money level, then I think that they would somewhat easily be my pick to win the East this year. I just have a lot of respect for Cade. I like that they evolve their identity a little bit away from like we're just gonna literally beat your ass to we're gonna make three pointers. Like I think that's a really smart way to evolve as a basketball team. So they're going in that direction, which is nice. - I just think that the Pistons need to get tougher, bro. Like if you're going to get to that level, you need to get players that are going to be tougher and your frontline do as you'd be tougher. That's simply what it is at this point. - They had Stewart and I love Beast. - But he can't be that guy though. He's a backup big, right? Like you're not gay, you need somebody, the people that you're gay planning for, the Cades and the Durance, they need to be tougher, right? And I think Trey Murphy would be a great addition to that because I think he helps with that, right? He can help with that deficiency. But they're not, I think they don't want to, when the East until they have a total vibe shift. They need to really embody the city of Detroit. And I don't think, I think they're like 85%. But they're not, they're not 100% yet. So we'll see. - So what is your answer to this question? Pacers? No one's talking about the Pacers. - As they shouldn't. They have a problem with it though. (laughing) I think it's between either the rappers or the Nick's at this particular point. At this point right now, in July 7th, with free angels being not over, I think right now it will be, it's out of those two teams. - Okay, very fair. - I think that's good. You want to crown a champion way too early before we get out of here? Way too early, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna go in okay, see. Go ahead. - Besides the Celtics, I think, I gotta go spurs, I guess. I gotta go spurs. - All right, so. All right, man, Michael Pino ladies and gentlemen, thanks so much for coming on. We'll see you soon. That has been another edition of Real Ones. We'll see you guys on Friday. Talk to y'all real soon, all the shits. Bye.