The Last Great Rally Before The Crash w/ Henrik Zeberg

I don't think that the NASDAQ has top here. I mean, I think we'll see some volatility and I actually expect some kind of volatility because when we get closer to our top, it doesn't go like all bull days and bull weeks up and then it just drops all of sudden that was it. It always gives more and more choppy into the top and I think that kind of volatility is what you see when the bears and bull starts to fight it out up to what's the top and at some point the bears are going to win. The war in Iran has kicked back up. The markets are getting choppy is a blowoff top coming soon or are we headed for a crash and how will we know hello and welcome to Milcoode macro. The podcast that knows that I could reuse all jokes in these intros but I keep making up new ones anyway. I'm your host John Gillin today is Wednesday June 9th and today we are joined by Heinrich Zeeberg. Heinrich is a macro economist renowned for his expertise on business cycles. He currently serves as the head macro economist at SwissBlock and he recently published a book called The Monetary House of Cards, The Bus of the Everything Bubble Caused by Central Bank Hubris. As you can imagine, I am always very excited to talk to Heinrich. This is going to be a really great episode today so if that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. Also as a reminder, the market is going kind of nuts right now. Our analysts have been making a lot of trades. We hit over 20 trades made by the Milcoode Pro analysts this week. Some of them are buying the dip. Some of them are waiting to see how things play out but for one dollar you can see everything that they're doing. All the trades that are making if you join Milcoode Pro today, you will get seven days in there and you can cancel anytime. Come join Milcoode Pro and see what we're up to. Today's episode is brought to you by Cape, the privacy first mobile carrier. Next so, earn interest borrow and trade crypto and cowche where your takes finally pay out without further do. We're going to get some takes from Heinrich Zeeberg. Welcome to Milcoode macro. Heinrich, how are you? Thank you so much. I'm great. Heinrich, I thought a good place to start would be to just revisit the framework that you've been calling for for a long time, which is sort of this, I think you called it like this three phases of a bear dinner, which is the first is a blow off top and then a crash led by technology stocks and then moving into a period of stagnation. I wonder if you could just start us out with a high level summary of this outlook here and just give our audience an overview of the framework you're you're taking to this macro landscape that we're in. It comes to the blow off top. I think that is materializing since we spoke at the last time. I you don't need to look far in the stock market and in markets around the world also to see that that's been materializing. We looked at look to the cost be index, look to the semiconductor, look to everywhere you go. You'll see that there are these crazy moves and that was exactly what I was expecting and then people say yeah, but it does not blow off top because it's not come to my particular asset or Bitcoin in particular. And I think that is a I mean, I think the we will see that as well also for crypto because these these are just the most risky assets and they're going to be the last in the queue so to speak and this is really where the animal spirit kicks in when you have that kind of move. So we don't need a lot for rotation to to come out of you know, semiconductors or the cost be or any indices around the world before we could see the move into into other into assets like crypto into crypto assets in the US. And I think that is that's the next phase of it. So the blow off top is developing and it's like it or not. It's something that has been taking since 22 actually if you look at the market since then that is really when they started to go go nuts after the so we have the initial spike out of the corona situation. Then when inflation the first part of inflation was over, we then saw that move up in the in in risk assets and they just keep pushing and pushing and for longer than I expected I give it that but it I've never called the top at any point since 22. So we are we're still there and but we're getting closer we're definitely getting closer and I'm actually saying that we are at a point now where the I think there are markets in the in Asia that has that have topped already risk assets and risk and indices and I think we will see that rotation now into the US. So the we are you know need to ask about the framework where it's about but this is more the outlook in terms of the about about that three three dish kind of course that I just lay out and so we are that you know you can call that appetizer we're in right now and then we will see the the main course the the real story unfold when this this starts to collapse because this is I mean people can talk as much as they want about this is not being a bubble this is a bubble and this is as big as it gets so far I mean we haven't seen anything bigger than this ever and when people say yeah but they're as earnings this time but you know can look to all sorts of you know metrics and you'll see that this is a bubble and it's the biggest we have seen ever bigger 1929 it's bigger than 2007 and it's definitely also bigger than the biggest one we've seen which is 2000 and and people just have to relate to that and if we when they do that they will also see that what we should expect is that it'll go to burst when it bursts you're going to see something that is different from what you saw in 2000 because in 2000 you only had a tech bubble this time you have a tech bubble where the housing market is also affected and the consumers affected which it wasn't it the consumer wasn't really affected in 2001 and so the situation is not the same like that and it's not the same like in 2008 to 2008 because we didn't have really a bubble there you had in the real estate but you did not have it in the tech market as well and in all of in in in risk assets in general so I think you're going to see a you know a combination of that and actually that's also why I think it's going to get worse and the biggest bubble in the world is going to create to big scratch in the world that's that's how does do you fancy yourself an analyst and or a content creator in this space well we want you specifically if you live and breathe tech equities milk road could be the home for you we're hiring for two positions right now analysts and content creator so check out the careers page below gotcha okay thank you for that framing that's very helpful hinder one of the things I love about you is your simultaneously one of the most bullish and most bearish analysts that I've ever spoken to so I want to go through a couple of these things in a little bit more detail and I want to start with something you said about the consumer as the the health of the consumer is for you a big indicator of the underlying economic health in these markets walk me through what you're seeing in terms of consumer health right now why is this so important for investors to pay attention to people don't pay attention to it because if you look to to the market center the economy 70% of the economy is the consumer 70% though if you have to go somewhere and you know you you know blindfolded you have to pick something out another hundred people you pick one out you know if you there would be 70 people out of a hundred that were you know the most important thing of this economy and then I can't understand what you're talking about the one or two people that is you know within AI or you know this is just so fragmented or so huge to one side because it's not a good story it's not interesting just talk about Mrs. Johnson back there you know in in the 19th percentile in terms of you know income and talk about how she is doing because we are you know we want to have the headlines we want to talk about AI we want to talk about how we can send data centers into space and space x IPO and all these fancy stuff like we want us to talk about the new economy back in 2000 say how this was going to change the world and we were right we were right and everybody was talked about it was we're right but it's the problem is just that that is not what drives the economy and the economy right now is driven by Mrs. Johnson and what she can see and feel in terms of her of her of her wallet and right now it can tell you she doesn't feel good as the housing affordability is very low the her savings rate is down to 2% 2.6% which is by the way the notice we have seen only going into the financial crisis the more people ever live paycheck to paycheck so if they miss you know one paycheck they are you know they are deep troubled because they don't they can't you know make a living then or they can you know make you know make ends meet we see you know so this is the reality of things and if they get a thousand dollar kind of you know extra bill you can be the cop breaking down something like that they are you know it's going to be a big problem but they won't be able to the median consumer will not be able to handle a five thousand dollar extra bill and I mean things can happen but we we are in a situation where the consumer probably at the worst pay and place they have ever been outside of a recession and and this is by you know this is not headlines but this should be the one thing on the top of headlines every day saying we are in a bad place with the economy because of the consumer but it's not a good story who wants to hear about that but that's that's the unfortunate situation when it comes to the economy and the markets we don't want to hear about things that are really that really matters we want to talk about Musk and what he says and about sending things up but you know he doesn't drive it an AI investment cannot run an economy so I hear people saying well this is safe and investment driven economy well there's nothing as an investment driven economy there's an investment boom we've seen that before we saw that with the telco investments and we saw a boom in there we saw with an internet and a boom into the two thousand also but it doesn't drive the economy and this time around we have seen a boom in investment going into AI it's not actually not as big as people say but it's it's that's for another day if you look to the capital expenditure and as part of GDP it's we have seen similar so that but but you know when we look at this people it's talking and it's just narrative and there's no really people holding you know onto facts the problem is with that you can have all the investment in the world you want but if that does not materialize into a return return on investment well then it's not going to be a good thing so we we better hope that all these investments are they're going to bring a return because if they don't well they're going to be someone who's going to be a little disappointed there. And the only one who could bring it and return out is the consumer. By the end of the day, you might buy it from one business and internet business, but businesses by themselves do not earn money. They earn money by selling things to the consumer at the end of it. But it's really about the consumer. You cannot drive an economy on investments. You can boost an economy on investment for a certain while. And if you do not see that dribbling into new jobs, then you have a problem. If the new jobs are not coming up, so let's say now you invest in the AI, the problem is right now that when you invest in AI, you don't do it to hire more people. And you do it because you actually want to reduce the number of people because you want to become more production. That is the whole story about AI. So when you do that, you don't necessarily say, go and say, oh, we, by the way, we need two more people. That's not how it works. You will actually see if you can reduce it. And that's also the problem. So right now you're seeing an economy there that is running on this investment boom. And that is why we really haven't seen the decline in the economy. And then we have these headline numbers when it comes out on the on the non-farm payrolls, for instance, which is the, I mean, it's the most simple thing in the world to double click on the non-farm payroll. And then see what is it actually that we get it? We get 172,000 jobs. First of all, we need to remind ourselves that last year, and I was sitting on other interviews as well saying these numbers, I don't get one bit. I said that in Q1 and Q2 last year, we can go back and take a look at that and they said, I don't get it because it's, you know, that's not where the economy is at. And then along came, obviously, we saw 1 million jobs in all disappearing because they were never there. They, it's because they have to calibrate with, I think it's within zero and numbers or something like that. So it's really, and then these numbers, they didn't exist. And also non-farm payrolls is both pot time jobs and full time jobs. So they don't ask for that in the non-farm payroll survey, which happened. So what has happened this time around is actually you saw 172,000 apparently 172,000 jobs in May, but 79,000 jobs, full time jobs were lost and lost in the same month. So make that fit. You've lost a certain, you know, 79,000 full time jobs, but you had a job creation of 270, sorry, 170, 2000 jobs. It does not up. It does not up. And that's why I'm saying these numbers are completely, you know, a mirage and they will be adjusted down the road. I mean, you know, call me in an August and we can take a look at it. They will be, they will be revised. And right now you're actually seeing that there was, since January of 25, so a year and what is that? Five, six months, you've seen a loss of full time jobs. 1.9 million full time jobs has, has similarly lost in that period. 1.9 million out of 171,000,000 jobs. That is not a great situation. In the early, duration of unemployment is time that people are unemployed is moving up. We are now 50 per cent higher than going into the financial crisis. Though people are not looking and this is what again, we have something that is a boring story because it, and it doesn't, you know, go quick like this and it's not Trump saying that and the market goes like this. Though it's the endorphin kind of, you know, triggering things that are interesting to look at, but it's not what runs the economy and that is what people don't get. Business cycle tells us where we are at, tells us where we are. And we are right now at a situation where the economy is rolling over. Yeah, sure. Okay. So thank you. There's a lot in that answer. And I think the thing I was going to ask about was that jobs report. So I'm glad you commented on that because a lot of people have been pointing to that saying, look, we're adding jobs, economy strengthening. You're saying if you look under the hood, it's not as, as rosy a picture as people are painting it as. I want to ask about your views on inflation because we've gotten the June CPI data just this morning. It's in line with expectations. The headline I think was 4.2%. But the people have been pointing at this accelerating inflation and accelerating job growth and saying the AI cap X is driving a re-acceleration in economic activity, at least in certain sectors. And I'm curious your thoughts on that. What do you think the signal inflation is sending is and how serious are you? How serious of a concern is this 4.2 headline CPI print? I'm not thinking so much about inflation. Not one bit. And again, people are missing so many of the medium steps or the steps in between there. Because they say inflation is bad, then the Fed will not supply us more of our drug in terms of liquidity. Well, first of all, inflation is a problem for the consumer. Let's just start by how things are really connected here. Inflation is a problem for the consumer because if we have high inflation, you're going to see that the consumer will spend, you know, will be having more difficulties in actually buying their normal groceries. That is the problem with inflation. That is why the Fed has a mandate on keeping it at bay. However, inflation by itself when the economy is rolling over and the consumer is already in a bad situation is not inflationary. Inflation is not inflationary. Inflation can actually be deflationary. Why what do I mean about that? But I imagine you have a certain amount of money you can spend every month. And now you see that the price on oil, for instance, you know, although the gas actually rises, what are you going to do? You're going to cut down on something because all of a sudden get more money in your hand because inflation goes up. It's not like you get, oh, that's nice. Now, I get like $200 extra a month. No, that's not how it works. You've got the $1000 you can spend. But what you're going to do is that you need to cut that on certain other things. And that is the problem because when inflation is high, then you'll see the people need to cut back. So right now what people are not understanding is that an inflationary number, inflation going up is a problem when the economy is accelerating. Then you have a problem. That's like in 2022. That's why you have a problem because the economy was actually accelerated because you've been pumping all these money out. And you had, you know, all businesses have to keep and follow up with the with the demand. That is a problem. It's not a problem when the economy is slowing, which is right now. And then people are pointing to the non-famp payrolls, which I just talked about, which I don't trust one bit. Going into 26. The last five months of 25 was an average job creation on the non-famp payrolls of minus 9,000, minus 9,000 jobs per month. All of a sudden, in 2026, we saw an acceleration, boom, exploding up to, you know, these 170 something thousand, which we've seen in last few months, again, understanding that these numbers will be revised and where did the acceleration come from. And then people come up with all these stories because they don't really under the hood. They don't look to the one thing, as I said, the full-time employment and not just the non-famp payroll. And if you look to that, you're losing full-time employment, you're jobs and you are creating jobs that will be, so you're looking at a gauge, which, you know, really, you don't know if it's, you're going up 60 miles an hour or 100 miles an hour or 20 miles an hour. And then you know later, oh, we were not going with 100 miles an hour. We were actually going 20 miles a power. But you cannot use that as a gauge to, you know, and the Fed does that. I know which is extreme. The thing that they actually lost your thought that the economy was as strong as it was when it really was not strong. And the same is the situation right now. But I think I'm not worried about inflation at the time that the economy is rolling over. I'm much, much more worried about the situation with the consumer right now that they have had the, you know, that this after, when I mean now, with the oil prices going up, which is going to hit a short term, that's a supply shock and that is a problem, short term. But that supply shock is going to create a, you know, demand destruction. That demand destruction is this consumer saying, oh, okay, I'll need to cut back. And there are certain things we can't buy. And that has a multiplicating effect which will hit the rest of the economy. So I'm not afraid of the inflation going up. And one thing again, people also sometimes understand inflation always moves higher into the last phase of an economy of the economy. Go back to 2008 and see inflation. It was about 5.4 something like percent of that. That was in 2008. When the Fed was cutting like crazy, remember that the Fed was cutting like crazy already in January of 2008. Inflation was moving up to 5.4 something in the midst of 2008. Why did the Fed cut like that? Because inflation is not a problem in the moment where the economy rolls over. And at that point, the economy was starting to lose jobs every month. But the artificial number we have right now of 170,000 jobs is creating this uncertainty, which I think Paul has been in and that's why he didn't dare to start to cut because he did not want to be the one who creates another Y-MAR situation like in Germany in the 20s. So he was afraid, looking at those numbers, I don't know if they're there to cut anything. And I can kind of understand that because the gauge is simply broken and doesn't work. And that's why we now in a situation where the consumer was seeing, I'm really agreeing with Trump there. I mean, there should have been cutting for a long time ago to support the consumer. So inflation is not a problem. The problem is that we have way to hawkish stands on the monetary policy at this point. And the longer the consumer stays on the water and a bigger percentage of the consumer, the longer they will take to recover. It's like if you have had this for a year or two years, that you've been up to your neck and just managing things, right? Then it will take you longer to start daring to take on that next new loan, to buy a new car, whatever it is, you will wait a little extra because you need to see if things are now. If it's like three or five months, then you'll be in the morph. cover more quickly. And this is what the problem is that this consumer now has been under water since 22 almost, right? And when they, when we finally get that whammy from the, from the economy, when the, the investment for more of a sudden, and up drive it any further, you know, why do we think that the economy is then all of a sudden going to pick up, like, you know, a massive way? I don't think it will. Okay. Henrik, I think that's a lot of information for our audience to digest on how you see the economy there. But I like this emphasis on the consumer and the consumer health as opposed to some of these other headline metrics that people focus on more. Let's pivot to the markets now because this is something that's been divergent, right? Like the underlying economic health is showing some strains, but the markets keep going higher. And I'm curious your, your thoughts on this? A lot of analysts have pointed to rising forward earnings estimates for a lot of companies in the S&P 500 that are sort of leading this rally. And, and using those forward earnings estimates to justify these valuations, saying that this bull run that's driven by AI stock investment is going to continue. Do you agree with this analysis? Do you trust these forward earnings estimates? And, yeah, I see you laughing a little bit, but why don't you trust these forward earnings estimates? I think this is the, this is the problem of getting older and remembering things and actually, you know, try and understood the things back 25 years ago and then having to listen to these things again. And I think that's why it's becoming so, you know, annoying almost to sit in here. Oh, but this time it's something different, right? First of all, when you have earnings, you can have, you can have businesses or any all the money in the world. It doesn't drive the economy. I mean, you know, you're going to have profits and you normally have peak profits into the top, into the top of the business cycle where, where the, where the recession begins. So right into the recession because businesses are good at cutting out people and it's out. Now we need to lay off people because we need to earn money. They need to make sure that they make ends meet. I don't know what the next analyst is talking about in terms of looking at these, these valuation level here and say, oh, but this is justified by, you know, this and that. The situation is we have a extremely overvalued stock market at this point, you know, to crazy extensions. And we, and that can go on for some time. And so at some point, you cannot account any longer. And you will see that into the final phase of this. And that's why I, I called the blow off top in 22 because it was clear to me, we were getting into that face where you would see these kinds of development. This, this is what happens in that's the cyclic of the understanding of the business cycle is so important. And it took longer. Let me just say that first of all, it took longer, but that's fine. That's been just because of all the money that's been circulating and all that and all this stimulus we've seen. But anyway, now we're coming to a point where the, you cannot squeeze more out of this. And you'll say, no, in videos are earning good money. And so on. Yep. It's, it's right. But again, if you believe that the economy is driven by the businesses, I'll just, you know, ask you to go back, take a look, take the profits on businesses and see, do you have recessions anyway, do even when businesses were making good money. Yes, you did. What were the driver of that every time that was the consumer when the consumer stopped to, stopped to spend, then you have a problem. And the consumer right now is down to 2.6% savings rate, which where normally would be about 5 to 8% or 10%. The 2.6 is, you know, low. Why are we there? Because the consumer is under stress. And when they are like under stress like this, the businesses will not continue to earn good money. I mean, again, it needs to come from somewhere. So I don't know what the analysts are talking about. And I, you know, I know that they did not foresee the S&P around 6,000, 7,000 back in 22. They were, you know, at different place. I said we would go to this kind of level. And then we would see where the top would be. And we are now heading closer and closer to it. And the was also expecting there to have been following that. But I was expecting, expecting in March also that we would have more or less a vertical kind of move in the market because that's what we have seen elsewhere. And also because of the structural setup we have. And that's what we have seen with an ASDAQ. And that goes on for some time, onto the dust and the long grip. It's a nice eye for all our building. And at some point it's going to come down. And I don't give much for the narrative that comes from analysts. And so when I honestly don't think it's worth its money. Okay. Well, I think we'll have to find out what happens with all of that SpaceX is about to have its IPO. There are plans for Anthropic and OpenAI to follow quickly behind that. I think this will happen around the time this episode is released. Do you think that this wave of IPOs might mark a market top for equities in the cycle? Or do you think that there's still room to go even higher from here as this sort of euphoric bull run continues? There's a piece by the all come out now. We always had that also into the major talks. We'll see a lot of IPOs and obviously people are these people doing the IPOs, businesses will obviously try to milk the market as much as they can. And they certainly doing this this time. How to give it that? I mean, the valuation levels for SpaceX is just extreme. Will the market on the day that we see the IPO? No, I don't think so. I think that they will have attracted enough information. You can see also we've been bottomed with information on how great this is going to be. And the data centers now in the space and I haven't even gotten intrigued by that. I say, wow, that sounds interesting. And that maybe as SpaceX could be a good idea. Long run, maybe, maybe, maybe. At these valuation levels that we were here about with SpaceX, absolutely not. And it might could it rise 10, 20, 30%, even despite that. Sure, because there will be attracted a lot of, you know, capital. I can see there was a lot of interest in it. And so surely, surely they're going to be a lot of money coming into that and could be pushing it up. And the whole speculation around that and, you know, people don't look to that. There's a reason why, you know, it's more and above has been putting money out of them the market for some time. And he knows when the part is getting a little too wild and it's time to go home. And I think, I mean, I am not better than him, but definitely. So I think it's, I would have to say, I think it's time to go home. It might be that there's an extra dimension to this party here, but you don't need to be in all of it. And I definitely want to be, don't want to be one of those having having their severe hangovers tomorrow because there will be hangover because this is not driven by fundamentals at all. It's driven by animal spirit. And that's also why you can have, it can go on for some time more. I don't know how long, but I think the levels that we're looking at is not far off where I've said that the market talk could be. Your phone carrier knows more about you than your best friend does where you go, who you call, when you sleep, and they're selling all of it. AT&T Verizon T-Mobile, they've all been caught leaking data or caching in on it. 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All in one place with 24/7 support and institutional great security. Oh, and by the way, next so is back in the US with new US clients getting 30 days of wealth club premier access. That means elevated interest rates, lower borrowing costs, and crypto cash back on trades. Benefits usually reserved for loyalty program members. Get started at milkroad.com/nexo. I want to ask you about something you mentioned the last time you were on the show, which is that you watch a lot of the Asian markets, Asian economies, to get a leading indicator of where the global market is going or when it might be ending. I wanted to get an updated outlook from you on that because I think the Korean stock exchange has been stopped because of cell offs a couple of times now this week. I'm just curious, you're an updated outlook on that and what you're seeing in those markets as a forward looking indicator for what might be to come in the US markets. I think it's interesting. Every time we see a vertical stock that goes vertical, we just say, "Oh, this is fantastic. I always get worried when I see that." This shows us that there's something in the end coming to this. Then it goes on for week and week and people are just becoming more and more bullish on it. I think what we've seen with the Caspian elsewhere is that this is exactly the move that you would expect into a very big top. It never, ever ends going up and then it levels out. It always ends like an idol tower. It's more like how low it will go after. Yes, I do look to Asian. It's because there will be, and I also look to Europe by the way, but it's normal that you will see some kind of lead from the Asian markets. It could be from Nick K. It's also potentially, could see, have top. I think the Hang Seng has top already in January. When I say top, I mean a major top. So there are other markets there that I think are important to look to. The Caspian was just in a crazy movement. It's a very tech-canny index. That makes sense that it moves like that. I think it sends us a warning sign now that we're starting to see where the top potentially could be in. Does it mean that it would be in that for the US market to know this? Not necessarily. I don't think it will actually. Because the normal cyclists will tell us that we will then see the rotation to US. Now, if you've been part of the Caspian, you've been in, I don't know, Samsung or something like that. Then all of a sudden you start to see, oh, I'm up 3,400 percent. I might vote for it. That's pretty nice. You know, people are wise. They don't think it's going up another three, four and a half percent. They say, "Oh, now I can actually take that money and I can put it into something else," which has not been moving this much. And then they will look to the US markets because the good old US is where we see the strongest economy apparently, right? And that's what we hear every time. We hear that it's the US economy that is the strongest, that it's going to stand the longest, and then you see that fulfillment because people suddenly put their money into the US, and that's the rotation that I see going on. In 2000, you saw the US markets topping out in March of 2000, and you saw the Cospi topping in January of 2000. That was two months before in the Cospi. So, and in 2007, it was actually like the Cospi topping month later, which tells us also that that's one of the indicates that tells us. I'm not saying that's the whole story behind it, but it tells us that we have a more like a tick situation like in 2000 and we have a 2007 situation when it comes to the markets. So, and that's also what the valuation is saying. So, the situation is that yes, I look to the Cospi and I say, if I see the top there, I can still see the US markets going higher with the rotation we could see going for some time, but it definitely is a canary in a coal mine falling down from it's thick, and then we'll have to say whether the situation would be the same. I think it's going to be the same. But that still leaves us with the potential strong face. And I don't think that the NASDAQ is top here. I mean, I think we'll see some volatility and I actually expect to some kind of volatility because when we get closer to our top, doesn't go like all bull days and bull weeks up and then it just drops all of sudden. That was it. It always gives more and more choppy into the top. And I think that kind of volatility is what you see when the Bears and Bull starts to fight it out up towards the top. And at some point, the Bears are going to win. Not where we are right now, but not so much later, where we are today. Okay. And I want to ask you about how to navigate this, because our audience is a lot of very intelligent and savvy, but also mostly self-directed investors. And they're not worn buffet. They can't really afford to sit with 300 billion in cash on the sidelines. So a lot of investors are trying to figure out how to navigate these market situations, because it does feel like a lot of these things are in bubble territory or at least overvalued. They've in some cases gone up several hundred percent in a short period. And yet, there's also this risk of missing out on, you know, like you said, a continuation of this bull run in AI stocks. If you sell out too early, how are you navigating this yourself? Are you staying all in on stocks? Are you starting to take profits? Like how are you thinking about this? How are you navigating this in your portfolio? And what would you say to the audience? I don't think I'm necessarily the average person in the average investor, because I follow this closely every day. And I spent 10, 12 hours every day in front of the screen. So I know what I look for. And I don't think there's one thing, because it was that easy. There are certain set of things that you can be looking for. And these are, some of those are the levels. But when it comes to this about feeling, you know, phomo, as I said, in interviews before the move in March. And I actually also put myself with my sub-stack publication that said, you know, I want to say that there is this move here, because if I didn't say it, and I said, get out of stocks now, you would think after 30% higher that I'm wrong. And then, but you don't need to participate in that 30% because it is a speculative face. And that is what you know. So if you've been part of it, I mean, I more and above that he went in in March of 2009 and started to, you know, just say that when, you know, when you're seeing things as deeply undervalued as they are right now, that's the time to move in. And then you've been, you know, holding on to ever since I've been adding on and so on. And I think the situation is now that we are coming to the other end of this. And that's why he now has been starting to pull out. And it's down to risk profile, whether you want to be part of that, or you don't want to be part of it. And he has, you know, obviously a portfolio size where he needs to start selling off a little time for otherwise he himself can crash the market, I'm sure. But it's the thing is that people will be, the FOMO is the second strongest feelings when it comes to investment. So it's only almost, it's not as strong as, you know, when you lose money, but it's almost as strong as losing money, the feeling that you get there that, you know, you feel that you're losing out on something, which is not as good as well. But sometimes it's okay. I mean, it's okay not to be part of the party. If you know, it's going to end in a bad, in a bad manner. And, and there will be, and then start to look for the new new opportunities because there will be new opportunities. It's not like this is the only thing and you've got a job in in front of the steam, you know, train there or whatever it is that's coming against us. And you to pick up the pennies there. So look at the market, say, yeah, it's okay. It goes up 25%. But it doesn't mean you're wrong. It just means you're early. And that's okay. You can be early and come out and get out. If you're more risky and I am definitely a little more risky on that, I think I see that rotation going on. It's, you know, almost too clear that it will happen because that's the part of the animal spirit and this people have been earning a lot of money and they're going to see get to the next one or next one or next one. And I also have their indicators telling me when I think it's, it's the time for the market to actually top out. And some of those are that you start to see it in Asia and elsewhere to top out first. And then you start to look to the next ones, right? But the situation is that I'm not the ordinary investor when it comes to that. I am staying in longer than most people should and would. And I, but I will be out the moment when things are starting to because there will be indications absolutely and people just need to look. So I will not advise people on something, but I only say it's okay to feel firm. Well, don't lose money on it in the on staying in too long, especially not when things have been going up. And if you're up to 300%, you've done well. If you're up, you know, 100%, you know, it was done well. But do not, you know, foam one for the next 25% necessarily because that's I think it was very valuable saying this is the the face, the 20% where people just go insane and you're going to hear, I think you're going to see more and more of that. And you were already seeing it because you have the phone more around AI already and it's just going to get more insane. I think as we go into the final face of this. Okay. So there are risks to getting out too early, but there's also risks to staying in too long. Everybody is going to have to reflect for themselves, figure out what's right for their portfolio. I think that's a pretty certain spec'd answer on that. Henrik, I got to ask you about crypto because I'll be honest with you, I follow your work for a long time. I think this is one of the most wild takes I've heard, which is that you're still calling for this blow off top to end with a rotation into Bitcoin and digital assets here. Bitcoin by many metrics has been in a technical bear market now for close to a year, not quite a year yet, but you've stuck to this conviction throughout this bear market for Bitcoin, calling for this rotation and this blow off top. Walk me through the thesis here. Why are you so convicted that we're going to see a trade from a i stocks into crypto and what do you see that's going to drive that catalyst there? Animal spirit. It's not a catalyst. It's animal spirit and you don't need much. So you now you have a 130 trillion stock market, a global stock market. And in the crypto and their own how much is this today, but is it two and a half? Two trillion. Two trillion. Okay. If you get a hundred billion coming into to let's say half a trillion coming into crypto right now, that will drive a lot. And there are indications that a 700 billion kind of move into Bitcoin. This, I'm sorry to get Bitcoin in a virtual general, will drive could drive this move here. Do I think that with the potential of a lot of cash, a lot of money, capital coming out of of cost be and elsewhere and moving into other markets? Also from the from the likes of some of the NASDAQ stocks as well, I mean the fang stocks and so on. Yeah, I do think so. I think that you're going to see that animals spirit coming in and so it's sitting looking there at the Bitcoin and saying we can still see that moving up and technically, it looks like Bitcoin has put in a top and I want to emphasize that. I was wrong. When I called for 170 and 180, I think it was the highest I said ever said I actually said 125 back in the days of 2000. And I have my and I said that was from when it was at 16,000 and I said 125,000. That means like looks like it could be the top of in terms of the Fibonacci extension and it was on 26 I think, right? I think that goes the top and I think we will look at that in retrospect here when it starts to head lower. But it doesn't do that in straight line. This is what people always think. It's like, you know, something is dropping. It has to drop from right here. It has already dropped a lot. There will be, you know, faces in that. I mean, all even in the financial crisis, you had strong rallies in some of the stocks that were dropping. You had very strong rallies. This is Bitcoin at a time where you're going to see rotation coming in. And as I said, 700 billion, 800 billion coming into crypto world will do a lot. And even just it will create just that rotation, which will then push the market up even further. So I am not so worried about that. It's not going to see a rally in Bitcoin. The only thing will be Ohio's in which I go and I think the 100,000 line is a psychological line. It's actually also becoming very much a technical line that could be making sense. But a bounce back to 100,000 and a euphoria around that and talking about how Bitcoin is going to say the world again. I hardly can say this. I mean, so honestly, I think it's stupid. I have to say, I think it's stupid. And I want to say that out loud. It's stupid. There's no salvation in Bitcoin whatsoever. And people can talk about its limits and supply from here on into end of days. There's nothing that can, you know, convince me that that's going to be there. It's a talk about in 1989, also about the limited supply of land underneath Tokyo and actually under the imperial palace back then. And that was the reason why it could go to infinity almost in terms of price. What happened to that limited supply? We know what happened. So people are talking like that, and it's a good check. And what we see is that it will drop, and it will drop because there is no look at yourself. If you had three components here, you had cash, you had Bitcoin, and you had Apple stocks. And you were being met by a demand off, you need to pay back this loan now. First, you'll take your cash and pay back the loan. If you don't have cash, you'll look at Bitcoin or the Apple stock. And the reasonable investor would say, well, the Apple stock is generating a dividend every year of something. I don't know how much it been over the last few years. And Bitcoin doesn't, and it's much more volatile. So I think I'll sell my Bitcoin. That is the rational for why what you will see. It is a more riskier asset. There's no doubt about that. And that means that it's a thing that can only move up if there's somebody buying it behind you. If there's not, it drops. And that's why it drops a lot. And you can see how it's been always when Nasdaq is in dropping. It's been dropping by more. It's a lever-spirited play on the Nasdaq. So I think you're going to see that Nasdaq will drop a drop a lot into a potential crisis that could be coming. And especially if the dollar is going to move up as fast as I think you can. But it's not in a straight line. And that's the thing. And I think the dollar can drop further from here. The Dixie can drop to 94 or something like that. And you can see Bitcoin thriving in that. You can see gold thriving in that. And you can see the rotation also still going on. And that's where Bitcoin will have its kind of hue ray rally. That move, by the way. And this is what people say. But why do you think Bitcoin is going to have a bounce and Ethereum is going to go to individual all-time highs? Because that is normally what we see. We normally see that when Bitcoin only bounces, that is actually where Ethereum and old coins are doing the best. And we can understand why. It's because Bitcoin doesn't steal all the thunder. It's like with the Nasdaq. When the Nasdaq was soaring higher, everybody was just pulling into that. And you know, we went off. But when it starts to kind of level out and to know people starting to think maybe I should put my money somewhere else. But I think that is the rotation of, you know, part of the rotation that is now going on. And we go fast and fast and faster. And that's why I think it's going to come to Bitcoin and Ethereum also could have your own. Sure. And it looks like we have at least peak fear soon or we could have a little more. But let's see what comes next week. But when it does, we also know that 468 10 weeks is enough for for the whole or very, very strong crypto rally and an all coin rally. And this is what people don't realize. You know, we had some that was forced to six weeks and we just saw two, three hundred percent on the old coins or Ethereum. Can we see that? Yes, sure. We can. There's plenty of time for that. And I think that is the end game here. That's what we're going to see. That's the furthest that furthest out on the risk curve that is where we're going to see capitals going out. And it's not the whole chunk of money. It's not the people who have been. It's not one buffer that is starting to say, oh, I need to buy Bitcoin and promise you we will not. But it's other people and they will see that and we will see that at some. So I think it's a belly. It's so much of a contrarian. I actually love to be the contrarian there because then I think, okay, even though I don't like the asset that much, you're probably going to see that it can happen because people are calling it off right now. You're listening to the milk road show, which means you've got takes strong ones, I bet. But where do those takes actually go? Do you tweet them into the void, argue them in the group chat, or do you try to express them by buying a stock? The thing is, stocks move on like 50 other things at once. And that's where Calci comes in. It's a CFTC regulated prediction market where you bet directly on outcomes like Bitcoin hitting 100K, Fed rate cuts, game stop buying eBay, with a clean, yes or no. We did a full deep dive on why prediction markets might be crypto's third product market fit moment. Check the show notes for the full report and claim $10 free when you trade $10 on Calci. I want to get your thoughts on one thing here that I've heard a lot of people say, which is that now that we've had this rise of AI and the speculation has all been in there, this blow off top might happen, but it's going to stay where it has been, which is in the AI stocks. And the market is sort of like overlooked, forgotten about, and crypto has sort of missed this whole big bull run for the last nine months or so since October in the equity markets. Do you think that there is anything to that idea that this like blow off top will happen in the equity market, but won't rotate into crypto because crypto is sort of missed out this time. Like what are your thoughts on that? Why would it miss out? I mean, there's where people are coming up with these things because it didn't happen yesterday. And I'm tired of waiting and I don't bother to look. So if you look at all the times, you have seen NASDAQ going all the most vertical. You'll have quite a few times of that since 21 and you actually before that also in 17 and 18 and so on, you actually had some strong moves on NASDAQ. It started to say there was one rather than started in the late 21 and we saw the NASDAQ was heading higher for 10 weeks in straight and Bitcoin was going was flat and actually dropped into the final league of it. And then it took off by 80% whereas the NASDAQ moved by 7 to 8%. I mean, people, if you look to what we have this time around, you've seen everybody was various, the equities in March of late March this year. And I was not, I was saying we're going to have a vertical rally. And if you put 10 weeks on top of that, you're almost at the time where we are now. I'm not saying that's going to be a replay of that, but we're almost there. That's because the money first flows into one asset and you kind of feel, oh, I feel comfortable here now. Let's move on to something else and I made good money. Let's move on to the next one. And you know, that's how it works. And then it doesn't move at the moment that people is to then all these narrative comes up and it's always there. So this wise guy coming up with some kind of narrative of, this is happening now because listen to that and then it goes straight against him. And you know, I think we need to understand the human psychology is moving from peak fear to peak euphoria. And you've got to find yourself somewhere where we are in that right now you are peak fear of for crypto, but you are at you started euphoria on the on the stocks. And when you start to see some pullbacks there, then you'll see the rotation going on. And that is what I'm suggesting. So I'm, I'm, this about the trip to has missed out. It sounds like it's a human being that didn't didn't have to train, right? These we are talking about what you're talking about millions of people. So it's not like just one person, all of some something missed the train. I mean, that's not like that. So I think you're going to see that risk, risk rally here is going to continue because we are not on the top yet. We don't see all the indications we would at the top, really the top in the US markets. And we only need four to 10 weeks in terms of a strong rally for this to go insane. And then everybody will forget again and everybody will have been a bull all along. Like go go back in March. And I you, I can show you my articles on this and say I was bullish and I put it down and I even said this is going to be a very, very strong run and we're going to and people were killing me on an X with that. Oh, I had to understand I'm going to ruin my reputation this. I don't know whether people are at today. But the same thing is now people don't analyze that I don't they don't look honestly. And they don't and they come up with all these sorts of narrative because it's kind of the field good kind of thing, I think. Heinrich, I really appreciate you coming on Milcoord macro. One of the things I've always admired about you is that you are very consistent. You are very convicted. You are contrarian. But you know, whatever does happen here, like you said, you could be wrong. We'll have to see how it plays out. But I do admire the way that you've kind of stuck to your guns on a lot of these things, even when the market hasn't always confirmed it immediately. Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online? Well, first of all, you can go to @HenrySeaberk on X and Substack. And we also have our SEM services and the seaberk later where it's just to be probably publishing today. Actually, the version for June where I'm also laying out this is like a 40-page kind of report that I do every month. And I go through all the business cycle and also the real economy and to tell people that that's what matters. And then I go into Ockens and so on. You can find that on SEM at SwissBlock on the SwissBlock side. You can look it up in Google. But yeah, that's very much where to find me and to follow my work. Heinrich Zeaberk, thank you so much for being on Milcoord macro. I hope we can talk again soon. Thank you all for joining us. I hope you all learned something today. So until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you all on the next episode of Milcoord macro. Thanks for being here, everyone. Bye. One insights to what's really moving markets and how we're trading each event. Subscribe to our channel, then join the Milcoord macro and macro pro newsletters. This show is for educational purposes only nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky, never invest more than you can afford to lose.