The Language of Power: Ukraine’s freezing anniversary of invasion - EPC Podcast

Four Years On: Ukraine's War Enters Dangerous New Phase Hello and welcome back to The Language of Power, the podcast brought to you by the European Policy Centres Europe in the World program. Every two weeks we bring you insight on the latest geopolitical developments, how they affect Europe and how Europe can affect them. I'm Paul Taylor, Senior Visiting Fellow at the EDC, and I'll be your host on these deep dives into global and European politics and security. Next week it will be 4 years since President Vladimir Putin launched Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, tearing up the post Cold War security order in Europe and wreaking untold death and destruction on the innocent people of Ukraine. In recent weeks, that pain has been magnified far from the front lines of this grinding war by waves of mass drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy and heating infrastructure designed to cause maximum suffering to the civilian population with the intention of bringing the country to its knees. But Ukrainians remain defiant. Like Londoners during the World War 2 blitz, the people of Kiev and other cities huddling in -20 Celsius temperatures are keeping calm and carrying on. Putin's intensified onslaught comes as his representatives are sitting at the negotiating table with US and Ukrainian envoys, ostensibly to hash out a peace deal, but also to prevaricate and obfuscate. He seems to have bamboozled gullible or cynical Americans into believing that he wants peace and that only Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky stands in the way. President Donald Trump claimed last week that quotes Russia wants to make a deal and Zelensky is going to have to move, otherwise he's going to miss a great opportunity. Yet Russia has offered no concessions. It is Ukraine that is under US pressure to give up land, but it is not lost on the battlefield. So how close are we really to a ceasefire after four years of war? How can Ukraine emerge safer from this dangerous moment? What more can Europe do to strengthen Zelensky's hand in the diplomacy and on the battleground? And how can we help keep the lights on for Ukrainians and provide long term support for their society? Well, joining me to discuss this bitter anniversary are from Kiev, Elena Devlikanova, who is Senior Fellow with the Hadachne Security Centre in Kiev and the Centre for European Policy Analysis in Washington DC. And in Brussels, Amanda Paul, Deputy Head of the EP CS Europe in the World Programme, who leads our work on Ukraine. How Kyiv Endures Mass Drone and Missile Attacks Welcome to both of you. Elena, let me start with you. How is the situation right now for the people of Kiev? And how are the attacks on power stations, collective heating plants and energy infrastructure affecting morale in Ukraine? Are you getting the help you need to protect and restore energy supplies? Speaker 2 Paul, thank you very much for the invitation. And it is really a very painful anniversary. It is far too long. This war is dragging far too long. And currently half of the country power grid is out of condition. About 10 million people in Ukraine suffers from lack of electricity. I live in Kiev and the capital has only 50% of it needs covered. Basically Russia damaged every power plant in the country since 2022. And you know, to cut a Long story short, it is a true crime against humanity. I do not recommend this experience to any of my European colleagues and friends currently here. We have such a notion as Mighty 5. It's you're very lucky if you have water, heating, electricity, Internet or mobile connectivity as well as shelter. And by shelter I mean either a bomb shelter, which not all of us have, or at least your own home, which is still standing. Honestly speaking, it has been part along for our allies to get their act together because what we are currently suffering, it's the worst winter since the post invasion is a result of the lack of courage, the lack of irritant systems that Ukraine has been trying to find since again the post can invasion. There is an initiative which is called Sky Shield, where we ask our partners to also participate in covering the skies, Ukrainian skies. Unfortunately, it never flew to the extent it should have been. So I would say that overall it is a very tragic experience, especially if you live in a modest building on a high floor. When elevator doesn't work because there is no electricity, you cannot bring in the product from the shop. It is so freezing that people install tents within the apartments. They use bricks if they are lucky to have gas stoves. I mean, gas stove now is a luxury. So honestly, it is extremely difficult, but instead of being or feeling defeated, Ukrainians feel exhausted but very angry. And if Putin plans to have hundreds or thousands of people marching in the main square to sign Russia favoring peace deal, probably we will go out with the placate saying we want Putin at the tribunal bench. Speaker 1 Well, turning to the political situation, President Zelensky has endured a year of humiliation and strong pressure from the White House since President Trump took office. Zelensky's Leadership Amidst Peace Talks and Security Demands How's he handled that? And how can Ukraine emerge strongest from the current negotiations? How close do you think we are to a ceasefire agreement? Speaker 2 Oh, it's been a very interesting, very dramatic story of 2 presidents relationships. It is very unfortunate that President Zelensky had to undergo so much, but I think that he managed to came out, you know, stronger and more likable among European population and even American Americans favor him. You know, very much in recent polls on who are the most favorite politicians, Americans vote for Ukrainian president. Whether it helped us, I think that it helped Europeans to understand how precarious their own situation is. Europe is helping itself by helping Ukraine and currently we are closer to each other than ever before. In my opinion, it would be a very significant, there have been already a lot of significant steps in bringing Ukraine closer and making it an very important element of European security architecture. Ukraine got this expanded partnership in Jeff, For example, recent statement of NBA countries to support Ukraine is also very important. So I think that the realization that Ukraine is an important vital element for Europe's survival is finally there. So I think that all these hardships and brought us closer to our European family and I hope we will get the recognition that we deserve. Speaker 1 Just for our listeners, Jeff is the joint Expeditionary force led by the UK, with about 10 countries in it in Northern European countries and the NBA to the Nordic and Baltic countries. Do you think a ceasefire agreement is likely? Speaker 2 Oh, no way, Russia is actively faking the desire to negotiate. Basically, they are just plain I think that they want to destroy not only Ukraine, but also European Union. And as far as we understand, this war will continue for at least another year. Russia is extensively investing in its production in military industrial production. It's a new budget, says that the level of spending is the same as the year before. They are planning to conscript another 400,000 people so it doesn't really look like they are preparing for this. Speaker 1 Well, Putin seems to think Russia is winning the war. What can Europeans who are not at the table do to strengthen Ukraine's hand and ensure the outcome of these talks does not pose an existential danger, as you said, to European security as well? Speaker 2 Well, first of all, we need to ensure that Ukraine is not forced to sign a capitulation deal. We cannot leave Dhanbas. I don't know how to explain this. Once again, Dhanbas. Russia was unable to overtake Dhanbas for more than a decade. That is why they are trying to do it in a diplomatic way. There is this security belt, a chain of very well equipped fortresses that keeps Russian away as soon as they occupied and both under any pretext, whether this is pre economic zone or whatever else, they will have a three-way to the whole Left Bank Ukraine. The help of will be under attack. Nipropoltava, you know, you name it, it will be a clear Greek into Ukraine's defeat with in the next couple of years and a very good platform for another attack. So what we need, we need this particular demand to be off the table. We need very specific, very clear security guarantees. It would be very nice of our partners to stop being afraid of Russia and actually show that they are ready to fight with Ukraine on our territory right now. Because if Ukraine falls, everything that we experiences experiences will be imported to European state. So I think that the threat assessment should be shared as well as all the risks and you know, all the, you know, all the possibilities that a closer cooperation opens for us. So what we need, we need more missiles, especially long range, middle range missiles. We need more air defence, we need a better cooperation in intelligence. We need Co production and of course funding for the military and Ukraine's budget. Scaling Up Military Aid and Fast-Tracking EU Membership Amanda, let me turn to you. Europeans are now making the biggest contribution to support Ukraine since Trump halted U.S. financial and most material assistance on taking office. What more can they do to see that Kiev prevails? Speaker 3 Thank you, Paul, for the invitation to the podcast. I mean, Europe is a slow moving animal and one of many parts. But what we've seen over the last four years is that Europe has started to actually step up to do much more. And it certainly started to fill the vacuum left by US assistance, although certainly not entirely. Unfortunately. I think there's a bit of a tendency in Europe to congratulate itself for what it's done so far rather than actually really doubling down on doing much more for Ukraine. And this is a mistake, particularly at this moment. They should be acting from a position of strength to strengthen Ukraine. Perhaps just to reiterate what Elena just said, it's absolutely crucial that they need to go much further in terms of scaling up military assistance to Ukraine, particularly ammunition and air defence systems deliveries and all of the of the other bits and pieces that are linked to that. As well as scaling up defence production with Ukraine, something that we haven't seen a huge amount of so far, there seems to have been a resistance from some in the EU to actually really carry out Syria's joint weapons production with Ukraine. So we need to see movement on that. At the same time, Europeans need to get them into the tent, so to speak. And by the tent, I'm talking about the table where the negotiations are going on at, because at the moment it's still a Russian, Ukrainian, American affair. There's no seat for Europe. So Europe needs to find a way into that tent. They need to identify who could be in that tent and they need to show that they are the ones providing Ukraine with most of the support now. And that gives them the the right to be at that table rather on the on the sidelines. Because at the end of the day, this war is about the future of European security and having the EU or Europeans excluded is just not in their interests nor in in Ukraine's interests. And in addition to that, they need to be decisive in starting accession negotiations with Ukraine. I mean, this has been talked about for many months, umm, or even longer. And we recently had the new initiative by President von der Leyen called Enlargement Light, where Ukraine could potentially join the EU in January 2027, not with all of the voting rights or whatnot, but they would still be in the club. This should be a geopolitical imperative. Ukraine needs to be given a clear plan, a clear road map to when it's actually going to be able to join the EU, because the EU is seen as as some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine. I mean, it's obviously not comparable at all to Article 5, but just by being in the EU means that Ukraine is part of the EU and, and, and to put it the other way, the EU is part of Ukraine. So they would be 100% together, facing the same challenge. Because I think from some corners of Europe, there's still a resistance to really accept that the war in Ukraine is Europe's war. Some countries that are further away, they may say that in a slogan, but actually doing what's necessary to support Ukraine and see that this war ends as soon as possible in a sustainable and just way for Ukraine with effective security guarantees. We're still far from that. There's been many conversations about security guarantees, but there's nothing yet in concrete. There are no legally binding security guarantees yet. You've. Speaker 1 Anticipated my next question because I was going to ask you about the possibility of the European Union committing to a deadline for Ukraine to join the EU after a peace deal. But, you know, I heard even the Latvian president, who's a strong supporter of Ukraine, saying at the Munich Security Conference, well, I don't think we'll get a date this year. He was being, I think, realistic rather than saying what he wanted. So how could the EU, which has always made accession the final stage of a long and rigorous process of adopting European laws and standards, change its enlargement policy? And would it have to do it just making an exception for Kir, for would it change the enlargement policy for everybody and say, well, Serbia, you know, Bosnia, all these countries have been knocking at the door for 15 years? Moldova, which is in the same way as Ukraine. Come on in and we'll sort things out about later. How realistic is that, Tamanda? I mean at the. Speaker 3 End of the day, it depends on whether the Europeans have the necessary, let's say, strategic foresight and political will to take such a bold decision. I mean, I can't say whether or not it should also apply to the Western Balkans, Moldova or even to Tokyo because they're all candidate countries. But The thing is it should be prioritised for Ukraine. It would be a strong message of the EU's commitment to Ukraine in every possible way. So I think that ministers or other, you know, leaders of countries who can't give a clear answer to this question or say it's, it's not possible, it's not going to work and we won't get an agreement. I mean, this signals to me that there's still a serious problem within the EU in terms of recognising the actual, the size of the challenge, the security challenge that we are facing and the support that Ukraine actually needs. At this point, it should be a geopolitical decision based on hard security facts. And at the moment we are not seeing that. But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe there will be a unanimous decision on this soon. My fingers are crossed that we will get that. But I think the suggestion that Ukraine would join in 2027 and not with all of the voting rights and whatnot, but we then carry out reforms once they got in, I do think that's something that needs to be seriously considered. I mean, it would be very unorthodox. You know, it breaks all the rules of the of the traditional process. But I mean, those processes anyway, we know they're being reformed because the enlargements seem to go on forever. I mean, you mentioned some of the Balkan countries. Some of those countries have been in the waiting room for two decades. I mean, two decades is really a long time. Ukraine doesn't have two years, let alone 2 decades. There needs to be decisive action now. Well, some of. Speaker 1 The Balkan countries, I guess Brussels would say, haven't done the reforms that even Ukraine has been pressing ahead with during that period. Just to pin you down on one thing. You're saying that Ukraine should join even if it's still at war in a year's time? Yes. Speaker 3 I mean, at war or not at war, Ukraine should be given a date for membership, full stop. It's very important. And this has been flagged by President Zelensky actually repeatedly over the last weeks. I mean, one would hope that Ukraine won't be at war, but I don't think that the war should be a hurdle for actually granting Ukraine membership of the EUI mean, this would only favour the Russians. If you're going to say, Oh yes, by the way, Ukraine can only be a member if we have a full end to the war. That's like a green flag to him to keep going I guess. Speaker 1 That's the case, but you know, we've had our problems in the EU with importing countries that were in disputes and where there were fights over or even if they were frozen conflicts over territory as we know. Experts Share Critical Actions Europe Must Take Now Elena, let me come back to you. What's your one wish for the next few months from Europe? What's the thing that you wish for most? Speaker 2 May I provide Elise? I have a couple, yeah. Speaker 1 OK. Speaker 2 So the first one, I wish our European friends would follow Amanda's advice about Ukraine's EU admission. I would like calls to be over because it is really hard to live here. I would like to see Putin on the bench for crimes against humanity in the criminal justice court or in on the tribunal, Special tribunal. Of course more Co production with Europeans. These are always good news. Most strikes over Russian energy system because if Russians like war they need to fill it too. More arrest or destruction of Russian shadow fleet. There is also sanction sanctioning acts in United States Congress which is 1 sanctioning of shadow fleet and also Russian sanctioning act. They have to be adopted and well, of course, support of Ukraine's initiative on on sky shield and recognition of Europe that it is already at war with Russia. Pagoda developed this interactive tool showing that the sub threshold warfare against Europe is so diverse and so intense that we are all in the same boat. So let's unite and ensure that Russia is strategically defeated. Well, that's. Speaker 1 A very long wish list and the ones that I think you know where, where there's chance of moving things forward in the near future. I would think definitely the shadow fleet must be actually more action against the shadow fleet, which moves Russian oil around the world in defiance of of our sanctions must be the most likely. I would think some of the other ones, as the old Jewish joke says, you know, the impossible we do immediately. Miracles take a little bit longer, Amanda. Your wish list for the near future? I mean probably. Speaker 3 Top of the list would be to hear less grumbling about Donald Trump. Stop grumbling and actually acting because it starts to get rather boring to blame everything on the United States and complain about this and that or the other. But in addition to that, I would like to see Europeans be more self confident in their ability to be an effective geopolitical actor and really start to act from the position of strength that they actually have. I mean, Europe is actually a powerhouse on the world stage economically, politically and whatnot. And I sometimes think that our leaders actually forget that the future of the continent is actually in the hands of Europeans along with Ukraine. So they need to act together now. It's funny, you were. Speaker 1 Saying that because I was just looking this morning at an opinion poll that showed that people around the world, in Latin America, in Africa, in Asia, see the EU as much more powerful and much more effective than Europeans themselves see it as. So maybe we we need a dose of a tonic of some sort They they. Speaker 3 Need a dose, They need a tonic of some sort, but they also need to look at, you know, the most powerful European country here, which is Ukraine in many senses, and learn from them. There's a million lessons that the rest of Europe can learn from Ukraine and they should hurry up and Start learning them now. Final Reflections on Ukraine and Europe's Geopolitical Future Well, that's a. Speaker 1 Strong message on this gloomy anniversary. That's all we have time for this week, but you can read more on the conflict in Ukraine on our website www.wepc.eu. And indeed, look out for a live event next week which Amanda is organizing on this anniversary. The Language of Power will be back in two weeks time when we'll be looking at the situation in Iran and what Europe can and should be doing about it. Until then, thanks to my colleague Simona Luiswardi for helping to organise and record this podcast. And thanks to you for listening in. Goodbye until next time.