The Ilhan Omar Deportation Question, and Kimberly Guilfoyle's Next Move, with RealClearPolitics, Plus Stephanie Lazarus Parole Hearing | Ep. 1418

Welcome to The Megan Kelly Show, live on Sirius XM channel 111 every weekday at NEAST. Hey everyone, I'm Megan Kelly, welcome to The Megan Kelly Show and Happy Wednesday. Lots to get to today, including updates into the investigation of Congresswoman Ilan Omar. Could this woman get deported? I mean, I think there's an actual chance that she could be stripped of her citizenship and deported. Like, this is getting really interesting. We've told you about the federal raid on her DC residence on Monday, reportedly related to Omar's immigration paperwork. Now, that can encompass a number of issues with her. There are a bunch of problems as it appears with her immigration paperwork. She came to the United States at the age of 12 as a refugee from Somalia. The New York Times reporting yesterday that members of her family, including her sister, have received subpoenas from the Justice Department and it is possible that others were subjected to raids as well, more on that in a second. We are learning that the feds are also investigating Ilan Omar's financial disclosures in her role as a Congresswoman, which you may recall she's had to restate now a couple of times because the husband, Tim Minette, has this wine business that went from like, it made $50,000 in 2023. It is suddenly it was up to $30 million within a year. And then shortly after that was revealed and she came under scrutiny. She revised the 30 million downward to like 18,000. So when the income is controversial, it just disappears. They said, oh, well, we added the liabilities to it. Well, this all of this stinks. It stinks to high heaven. And it appears all of this may be under the microscope. Now the warrant that was used to go search her DC home specifically, at least reportedly, I haven't seen it with my own eyes, references some immigration concern. So that would not necessarily be the financial disclosures in any funny business that may or may not have happened there. It could have been any one of a number of issues on the immigration front, which some of which we've been going over this week. And we've got more information on a few of them. What's going to happen next? Well, the prediction market Calci, over there, there is now a 39% chance of representative Omar getting charged with a federal crime before the end of 2026. I mean, that's, that's two months away. Traders are driving that up because it was at just 9% one week ago. That was before the raids. By the way, give our sponsor Calci a try if you like by using code Megan Kelly, or you can click the link in our description. All new users get $25 free to trade with when they trade $25. Also more Kimberly Gilfoil drama emerges after she was forced out of her ambassador ship to Greece. We will tell you why there's some. There are some allies to the president who are now reportedly very worried about whether she is going to seek revenge joining me now are pals from the real clear politics show and site, Tom Bevin. He's the co-founder and president of RCP Carl Canon. He's the Washington bureau chief and Andrew Walworth. He is real clear chief content officer. Veterans days coming up and birch gold group is commemorating it with something I think you're going to really appreciate from now through October 30th for every $10,000 you purchase from birch gold. You get a free patriotic silver round and there's no limit on how many you can earn. Birch gold can help you convert your existing retirement savings into a gold IRA account without spending a dime in taxes or penalties and you can even do it in in whole or in part. For current and former military they will waive fees on the entire first year on purchases of any amount. Birch gold is earned an A+ rating with a better business bureau and serve tens of thousands of customers including our listeners and viewers who love birch. Text MK to 989898 for a free info kit and to claim eligibility for your free silver on a qualifying purchase before October 30th. That's MK to the number 989898. Do it today. Guys great to see you. How you doing? Good. Awesome. I mean, I guess so it's hard to get that excited about it. I have to say because it's like I don't know. I think we all know Republicans are almost certainly going to lose the house. There's some drama around whether they're losing the Senate and even Republicans who want to teach their fellow Republicans a lesson. Don't start Middle East wars that you campaigned on not starting. Don't want to see those lunatics on the left takeover. I'm having a difficult time getting really excited about it. I'll cover it. We'll all cover it and all that. But this one just feels a little like God. Anyway, the ill on Omar thing though is interesting. It is interesting because as near as I can tell you guys, this woman's been getting away with what looks like immigration fraud for years, years. And now finally, President Trump's DOJ is cracking down on the investigation that President Biden's DOJ reportedly began. So we've got, we've got, it looks like we've got a warrant that references specifically immigration issues around Omar. And near as I can tell, here are the top ones. Number one, her father was not an educator as he claimed when he sought asylum in the United States. He appears to have been a very sketchy guy. He was a well-known colonel in a genocidal army of Somali dictator Ciyad Bar. This is Parallel and Scott Johnson reporting who's been owning this story on Omar for years. This guy Ciyad Bar over in Somalia, waged a decade-long war of extermination against the rival Isak clan. And the murderous toll reportedly ranged from between 50,000 to 200,000 killed mostly civilians. That's who her dad worked for. He was a colonel in the army. Now what happened according to Johnson is I'm not really up on my Somalia history. That Omar's politically active Somali immigrant community, even they would concede that many fled Somalia to America only when this bad guy, Ciyad Bar, when his two-decade reign of terror was finally overthrown and they feared retaliation. So her dad needed to get the hell out of Dodge and did. They stopped by Kenya and next thing you know, they were applying for asylum in America. And he was bringing his daughter along with him. >> Educator Warmash. >> I'm not including years here. >> I mean, like, okay, I could have made a joke, but I decided not to. In her memoir, she only calls her dad an educator. So it appears to me that her father was not an educator. She was not a minor. That's the real issue that I think they're tearing into right now, because she may have been 12 when she got here, but the only reason she was a naturalized citizen ultimately is because they said that she was 17 at the time that the dad applied for this. And she would have had to be. In order to take advantage of your dad's naturalization, you have to be a minor. If you're 18 or over, you've got to get it on your own. And now it's looking very much like she was 18, not 17, as they apparently may have lied about in the application in the application papers for her. So that's number two. And it also appears that she married her brother. She has a brosband and the brosband. She denies it. It came to me yesterday. I'm like, how can I short form what this guy wants? >> The brosband. >> Both the brother and husband. He was her brosband. And this guy. Her husband, Elmi. >> Husbro? >> I don't like it as much. I like my husband. >> You workshopped that one, okay. >> I did. I did. It was carrying around. So her real last name is Elmi. And that's another part of her backstory that she's not an Omar. She went with, she was an Elmi. And when the family was trying to get out of Dodge and get over here, there was another family that was going to help them with the last name Omar. So he took Ilan and he took the dad and he took Ilan's sister. Suddenly, they became Omar's. But Elmi is her real last name. And guess whose last name it also is? Everyone, her- >> Brosband. >> Thank you for playing Tom. This is her husband's last name. So she got married to her brother who became her brosband. She denies it, but it's very clearly the truth. But here's the problem. The 17 to 18-year-old thing. And the brosband issue are both looking at statute limitations problems. They happened more than 15 years ago. And at best, at best, the statute of limitations on these crimes is 10 years, maybe five. So query what there is to get her on. Now, you could still deport her. I mean, you could still, like, denaturalize her and potentially deport her. That would be a civil matter on which there's no statute of limitations. And Jeanine Pierre, I'm going to play this for for you in a second. She's the one behind these raids. And she said to Fox, yes. yesterday to John Roberts, yes, these are my cases. So she took ownership, it is her office, it's her. And she mentioned civil. So this could all end up in no criminal prosecution, but Ilhan Omar stripped of her citizenship and kicked out of America, I mean, like holy cow, bo! But if the statute of limitations had clearly run on any criminal immigration problem, the federal judge would not have signed off on the warrant. So I'm really, I'm a little lost on exactly how they got the warrant and exactly what they're doing. I'll play you the Janine Piro sound by speaking with John Roberts yesterday on Fox 3. >> There was no question that that judge would not have signed that warrant unless there was probable cause. And probably more than that given the individual who's involved. And given the fact that we're in the nation's capital with judges in the nation's capital. But more than that, it is upon the execution of the warrant that we will see or we're dealing with civil immigration issues because they've made it clear this is about immigration from warrants itself. We're dealing with criminal immigration issues, you know, there are several investigations going on. And I don't think there's any question, but if there's a crime was committed, it will be prosecuted. >> So what about these financial disclosures, the disclosure? She was given a pass by the House ethics, but somehow 30 million, $30 million magically appeared, then it magically disappeared. >> Well, I can tell you that is subject of an investigation as well and it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter what the House does. It doesn't matter, you know, what this agency or that does. We're looking at the facts, based upon the facts, we'll follow them wherever they take us. >> All right. This is your office. It's doing this. >> Yep. >> All right. >> Okay. So where does all of that leave us? Now two weeks and change before a midterm election. And what do you make of the Democrats calls that this is law fair? It's using the Justice Department for political purposes within 100 days of an election. And that we've crossed some uncross Rubicon, Tom, that we shouldn't have crossed. >> Well, this is, you know, we talked about this on our show yesterday and Carl and I both had sort of the same take, which is you can't, there was all this discussion in Trump's first term by the Democrats. So he's breaking all these norms, he's, you know, he's trampling the Constitution, he's doing all these things. And they all lined up and cheered as Biden's Justice Department and, you know, Latisha James, Alvin Bragg, Fanny Willis. They all openly stated that they were out to get Trump, that they were going to do whatever they had to do to get Trump, use the legal, use the law against him, try to ruin him, bankrupt him, bankrupt his family, put him in jail. And Democrats cheered at every point along the way. So it's hard to take them seriously now. Even if you think what the current Justice Department is doing is, is doing is either, you know, wrong or political, it's just hard to take it from the Democrats. We're all out there now suddenly saying this is, you know, this is a fascist regime. This is what authoritarians do. It's like, please, just sit down because you have to be consistent. You're either in favor of this or you're not. I was not in favor of the Biden administration, the Biden Justice Department going after Trump the way they did. I thought it was unconscionable. They were making up novel legal theories and cases that had never happened before and never used before to go after Trump. And so I am wary of this particular, for the reasons that you mentioned, Megan, that if it's beyond the statute of limitations, it is within 60 days of an election. And so there are reasons that this, I'm not, I don't think this probably should be happening right now. If there is a crime that has been committed, I do agree, you know, that if she's guilty of something, then she should be held accountable for that. But we shouldn't be going out of our way to do that either before election or to try to get her on some sort of technicality that happened, you know, 20 years ago. I totally disagree with that. I was against the law fair. It was unleashed by the Biden DOJ, but I think the only way of stopping it is to do it to them too. I really do. I continue to believe they need to be made to suffer in order to actually get this to end because if it's just a rhetorical argument, they're not going to like it. They need to feel the pain. And by the way, she shouldn't be reelected if she does, if she's not even a legitimate U.S. citizen. Go ahead. I agree with that. Let's go to the point, Megan, it's like, you want this to stop? It's not going to stop. This is it. This is the new normal. The toothpaste is out of the tube and it's not going back in. Mm-hmm. Yep. Those are bananas. We're seeing all around us. We're in their republic now, but we didn't start it. I think that those of us on the right who objected to this are just trying to finish it and actually get some skin in the game by the lunatics who cheered this being done to the former president and now president. Again. Tom, let me advance it a little bit. And I'm sorry, Carl, because I want to show you what Brian Killmead, who's got very good sources in Washington, D.C., said at the end of a Fox and Friends segment on this yesterday. Watch. I also was coached by someone who knows this investigation intimately that think Rico case and they said to us yesterday that just because Omar was raided, it doesn't mean she was the only one raided, let's hope high profile people's houses, apartments were also raided. Yes, today. So there he says, the people we don't know about also were subjected to raids yesterday, then that they may be going after Ilhan Omar for some sort of Rico violation, which of course is what they ultimately tried to get Trump on down in Atlanta. And it's a statute that's usually typically used against mob bosses who commit multiple crimes where you're not going to go after him for this small crime or that small crime, but under the umbrella of like a crime organization, you could get him. And that makes me go to, I guess there's been enough in the immigration lane. You could potentially go there and it might be a way of reviving things that have expired under the statute of limitations. In other words, sometimes they use that to go after mob bosses because like that murder, well, murder doesn't expire with statute of limitations, but let's say that hold up the statute of limitations expired, that bank fraud, the statute of limitations, but if you put under a Rico umbrella, you can revive those claims because you're not trying to prosecute them as individuals. You're trying to say, this is all part of a criminal enterprise that this person has been running. It could also potentially be a reference to stuff happening in Somalia between Ilhan Omar and the Somali community and the, you know, the federal government, the defrauding of the state and federal government. And her sister has reportedly also received a subpoena. Recall that that was another Elmi turned Omar, who came over with her under the dad's umbrella. So all of which is like telling me, Carl, that we are at the beginning of this. We are not at the end. This is going to be going on for a while. Well, you mentioned the Rico statute. So this is a racketeering, Brian meets something about the racketeering statute that would be a conspiracy to, you know, commit crime on a bigger scale. What the, you know, the immigration thing seems to me problematic for the reason you said Megan, it's just not timely. But this fraud in Minneapolis, if Ilhan Omar knew about it and was in on these discussions, if she profited by it, if she helped protect these people who were stealing tens of millions of dollars, you know, in poverty program dollars, that's what I thought they were looking at. But I, you know, I don't know. I haven't seen the warrant doesn't say anything about that. But if they're looking at that, then maybe you have a case that's prosecutable. You know, President Trump was asked about this and he said, you know, this isn't, you try to give some, if this has nothing to do with me, you know, basically he's trying to say, I didn't order this. He didn't quite say that, but that's what he seemed to be saying. But then he added, you know, I've always found her to be a totally crooked person. And that language, that language you're at, the president shouldn't be using it. But if he is using it, what's, it's a, it's a clue. We're not talking about immigration, right. But that's it. Well, I think we are though. I don't, here's, I trust Rich McHugh implicitly. He worked with me at NBC as a producer. He was the guy who got all those women who were ready to come forward against Harvey Weinstein that NBC spiked his story. Ronan Farrell was the face of the story. But Rich McHugh was the guy who did all the legwork and he's an honest decent man and reporter. He now works for news nation doing on air work. And he reported, and I quote, sources told us that this raid is related to her immigration status and her father's immigration papers when she was a child. So he is saying, now you heard Janine Pirro kind of saying, kitchen sink it like wherever this goes, we're going to go. And if you slap a, a rico charge in there, that kind of gives you permission to do that. So that, that could be what this is all about. But he went into detail on the problems behind the dad's asylum here, Andy. And this is some of what he reported. Apparently, the problem started with Omar on this front like she was outed as possibly being 18, not 17 when she became naturalized, which was not okay. You can't go on your dad's asylum if you're at age of majority. And Omar ran in 2022 in the House Democratic primary for Minnesota's fifth district against a very angry AJ Kern, her opponent in the primary who came in fourth, well, AJ Kern was like a dog with a bone on this issue. And rich reports that this person claims to have documents calling into question the validity of Omar's citizenship. She says, I think AJ is a female, I actually could be wrong, forgive me. But AJ says Omar's citizenship argument, yeah, she is, doesn't hold water and that no one has ever verified her citizenship, the Federal Election Commission or Congress. She has, okay, let's say, oh, she actually went to the office of the Minnesota Secretary of State to try to find out whether they verified Ilhan Elmi Omar's citizenship back in 2019. We actually have that video here in thought to find out some questions when a person comes from, when they fill it out, then that is public data, most of what's on there is public data, most of what's on there, so how do you verify their citizenship if they're foreign-born? But that's outside of our round, there's no authorization statutes for us to follow, you know, double check on people, verify their status and things like that, they sign the data, that's the certification statement and that's just the way it is right now, there's no law that requires us in the fact, because there is no law telling us to do that and we would be violating the laws by checking up on people, we don't verify everybody is a citizen, we don't verify everybody is a citizen, we don't verify everybody is a citizen. Okay, everyone, you just heard it, when a candidate goes to file to run for an elected office, the state is not verifying US citizenship, so as a citizen, if I suspect that a foreign-born candidate has not obtained US citizenship, like I suspect Ilhan Elmi Omar has not obtained US citizenship, I can't verify it through the state, she just said they don't verify US citizenship, that's problem, I may take her and I approve this message. Okay, so two other additional facts, she, dog with a bone, love this woman, went to the immigration services, US citizenship and immigration services and asked for proof that this guy was a citizen, like what happened when Ilhan Omar's dad applied for citizenship in asylum and she requested his records, she said it took a year, but she ultimately received a letter dated June 20th, 2023 stating that after a thorough search of their database and using all variations of his name, there is no record of her father's naturalization. And then she says I sent off to the Department of Homeland Security and they also did a search of their database using all variations of his name, they also found that her father was not in their database. So she cannot find any record whatsoever from any federal agency, even proving that Ilhan Omar's father became a naturalized citizen and what we have on Ilhan Omar is original, originally her legislative page showed her birth date as October 4th, 1981, which would have made her 18 at the time of her father's alleged naturalization, too old. If her birthday is October 4th, 1981, she was too old to be naturalized under her dad's alleged permission, permission slip. It only changed on her website in 2019 after AJ Kern posted a separate video about all of this. And that at that point Omar staff, according to an email obtained by News Nation, asked the Minnesota legislative reference library to change the birth year listed on its website from 1981 to 1982, which would have made Omar 17 at the time of her dad's alleged naturalization. This is this stinks, Andy stinks to high heaven. Any one of us could prove in two seconds our citizenship and that we didn't marry a brosband and she has failed to do either of those things since she came under this microscope. I mean, there's a couple of things about this, one is that the raid was the personnel on the raid were the Homeland Security personnel were involved in that raid. So that led everyone to believe that this must have to do with her immigration status and not with the financial stuff, which you would think would be more explosive of the two, frankly, even the- >> Or at least they got the warrant based on that, it doesn't mean they're going to go there. >> And then this part, what you've just outlined, sort of might help explain how they got a warrant because maybe there's some fraud involved with going to the Minnesota library, the reference library, and trying to get her date changed if that was, and that would have happened in what 2019. >> 2019. >> So that would be within the, you know, within the statuable limitation. So that may be why the judge, you know, signed the warrant. I mean, I have to say politically, it's hard to think how this would affect anything in the midterms. I mean, she's in a very safe, she's in, you know, she's the fifth district out there. It's very safe. >> She may be eligible to run. >> Well, I don't think they're going to determine that between now and the election. >> I just don't think that that's going to happen. >> They may not determine it, but they may make news on it. >> Yeah, I suppose that's true. I mean, I'm just, I'm just not sure that politically it seems to me it's a distraction. I'm not sure this is helping the Republicans writ large. >> Oh, interesting. I don't know. I'm not sure if that's actually a different point in a good question. I guess my first instinct, Tom, is to say it will help them. Republicans cannot stand ill on Omar and they've been wanting some accountability for Trump's persecution and what they feel like is their persecution being debanked and so on since the day they voted for Trump. And he failed with Comey. He failed with Leticia James. I don't know. To me, I think we got a live wire here. >> I failed with Fouchy, right? >> You failed with Fouchy exactly. I'm feeling kind of optimistic about this one. I'm not going to lie. I was like, if you can make a rico case where like she's been defrauding us from day one, she wasn't 17, she was 18. She married the bruzz band and he had no right to be here. The dad lied and said he was an educator when really he worked for some criminal warlord who killed a bunch of civilians. Then when she got here, you take it to the other place. She filled out, this is alleged, this could be what the allegations are. I'm not saying I know this. And then you say, after these multiple frauds that got her into the country and her criminal dad into the country, and possibly her criminal family into the country, what do they do? They continued the fraud by fleecing the tax payers at the federal and state levels with these programs that have come under scrutiny in Minnesota, maybe. And look at the husband's tax returns. Look at her congressional disclosures about her money. Who goes from $51,000 in income one year to $30 million the next year? And then when they come under scrutiny saying, how did that happen? We have a right to know. That's why we require these disclosures of our lawmakers. Suddenly they take out their bigger racer and they revise it down to zero saying, oh, we forgot to take account of our liabilities when we gave you that $30 million number. And I can read a probable cause, affidavit, in front of a judge that says, all of this is part of the same scheme under the heading of RICO. And we need to get to the bottom of what this criminal fraudster, how many frauds has she committed is basically their question. Yeah, look, I agree with you. I think she has been a very prominent member of the squad who's been very vocal in her positions and her hatred of Donald Trump. And so I agree with you. I think there are folks on the right who are like, you know, because the mantra is like, nobody's above the law, right? Isn't that what we were told? Was it justification for all this? And now suddenly, you know, if she has committed some sort of fraud or crime, she should be held accountable as, as was the same with Komi and Fauci and all these people who, who did not pay for their, their crimes if they committed those crimes or, or at least, their deceit and manipulation of the American people. And so to me, the whole, I mean, just as you laid that out, if her father, if there's no record of him ever being naturalized in the first place, right, then then she has no, right? She has no status here. I would think that that would be something that, that the government, as you mentioned, I mean, it would be kind of dramatic to have her deported, especially if it happened before the election. But she might actually win anyway, even though she was, you know, I'd be like being in prison and winning. That's happened before or people have gotten votes. So I don't know. It'll be, I agree with you. I think we're at the beginning of the story and not the end. We're going to learn a lot more. And in the course of that learning, I think, you know, we may very well find that she has, she has defrauded the American people in a variety of different ways. But we'll see. >> A serious, she may be a serial fraudster. That's what we're going to figure out. I mean, honestly, I don't even know who she's running against. And like, I realized she's up 30 plus points and all these Somalis are going to vote for her, the ones who are in our country. Well, maybe that's it, that's it. Where's her opponent? That's an important point though, Megan. These districts are so gerrymandered. The media up there has been so friendly to her. She hasn't been asked these questions in a way that's required her to answer. She was asked about that wine scam. Maybe it's an accounting year. Maybe it's a, maybe somebody filled out the form wrong, but this $30 million winery that then came from nothing and didn't actually seem to have a brick and mortar. Then he seemed to sell wine, then it went away. And she was asked about that by a reporter. She's walking down the hallway. They were on camera and she says, she's really start flippantly. Oh, why did you want to buy a bottle? And that's not really the answer to that. So I wouldn't like to get these answers, these questions. But the point you're getting at now, Megan, is an important one. She doesn't have a real opposition up there. The Democrats haven't required that she do anything. Congress hasn't required it. You heard this woman from State of Minnesota. They don't check the records. She's never had to answer for these things. And we'd be a healthier dynamic. I think trying to deport someone who's in the United States Congress has been in this country since they were 12 is ludicrous. But I also think it's ludicrous that she has never been asked. She's never been made to answer these questions. And I think that these are some of more serious questions that need to be answered. She's running against John Nagle. Just for if people want to know, John Nagle, he has exactly $26,000 cash on hand in his campaign chest right now. She has raised a total, this is going to pollingsource.com. She's raised a total of $5.8 million. She has $1.35 million on hand. How much on hand is she going, but she's got, she has 1.3 on hand right now. 'Cause if Trump deports her, she'll take that with her to Simone. Well, she could, I guess, but she's going to win by 25, 30 points easily. Let the good times continue to roll, Elon. Yes, so Nagle said to Fox, I think the people of Minnesota have been lied to. They've had their money stolen. They want to see somebody that's going to come in and fix things. They're tired of being told the same old things. Okay, well, that's exciting. But get on it, Nagle. Why is Janine Piro leading this effort as opposed to you from the rooftops screaming? She's not an American. She does not appear to be a valid American citizen. That's what Old Nagle should be using every $26,000 word to advertise and say in as many pockets as he possibly can. You've got a bit of an assist from President Trump who's not putting his fingerprints on the Janine Piro investigation here. But did want us to know that Somalia's not a nice country. We might not want people from there in leadership posts. That, of course, made a lot of people unhappy. Here's what he said the other day, stop for. Elon, somebody who was asked because I don't know what they're doing with it, but I can tell you this. She's a disaster. She comes in from a country without laws, without police, without military, without all they do is shoot each other. And she comes into our country. And she says, I have a constitutional right. She's got a constitution right. She's telling us about the constitution. And she comes from one of the worst countries and they come into the United States of America. And they tell us how to run our country. We're not going to stand for it. >> Queue this reaction from Sonny Austin on the view. >> He is throwing racist red meat at his base. I'm not saying that his entire base is racist, but I'm saying that all the races are part of his base. And so what I will say is that this is xenophobic. I think it's racist. He called Somalia a non-country, which has 20 plus million people. It's an African country, so this is par for the course for this president. >> Okay, just not for nothing, but Trump is 100% right. Somalia has a military, but in virtually all categories, its readiness is rated as zero. The country has police, but the latest state department travel advisory about Somalia tells everyone to not travel to Somalia for any reason. Americans are at risk due to unrest crime, kidnapping terrorism, limited medical services, landmines, systematic mistreatment of women and gay and lesbian individuals, piracy, abusive residents in rehabilitation centers, and confiscation of passports by family members. So it doesn't exactly sound like a trip to the Caribbean. It's not racist to point that out. It's true. And what Trump is trying to say is why would we elect somebody from a country like that to try to tell us how to run our country. And I love just the casual reference by Sonny Austin, all the racists are part of the Trump base. I'm not saying that they are all racists, but all racists are part of the Trump base. That's a rich one coming from a Democrat and the Democrat party. Okay, so that's Ilan Omar. We'll watch it as it continues to play out. Let's talk about Kimberly Gif oil. Carl, I'm interested in your take on this because the headlines have been everywhere for weeks. The Wall Street Journal is the one that brought her down with an assist from the Daily Mail. But my point is these are not left-wing publications. So this was, it's tough for her to say I was the victim of a left-wing, smear job. And then of course, she was fired by a Republican president who, you know, she was close with. But the president is denying that now. Here's what he said about her after he forced her out of her job on Tuesday, sat six. It's almost a member of your family, how surprised were you to learn about these allegations? But it's truly like who, me, well, so, you know, she was definitely very close to the family for many, many years. Yeah, and she was, they were, they were an item. Tom and I, we saw them at the, I forget one, some convention was a convention four years ago or two years ago and they went, they were hand in hand. They were inseparable. They were engaged. She and Don June. Yeah, Don June, he never pulled the, never pulled the trigger on it and then he, they were never really engaged. I, I actually have confirmed that myself, but they were, they were other sources of an item, but as they weren't against, she bought herself an engagement ring. Well, that line went to the tab lights and said we're engaged and it came as a surprise to Don June. Well, that family comment that the reporter asked Trump, that's not accurate. Scott Jennings had the last laugh on that. He was on the, they played that clip that you played on CNN and Scott Jennings said, well, she wasn't Gavin Newsom's family. And even Abby Philip has said, yes, she wasn't Gavin Newsom's family. True. Well, so where does this leave us because what, here's what I find interesting. She, whatever Trump said in that sound bite, she was very close to the family. She and Don June, I think, got together in 2019. They were together some five or six years and there's a report granted it's on the daily beast, but if I were a betting woman, I'd say probably has Kimberly's fingerprints on it. She's saying, be careful because there's a burn book. And she does know where the bodies are buried and having an unhappy ex girlfriend at a minimum, maybe ex fiance, whatever, of Don's running around there with all of that information is not a great position for the Trumps to be in. And so what do they do now, right, like, not prosecute her? Because there's a question like right now she's being investigated by the State Department IG for all these alleged ethical lapses. So Carl, what, let's say you get the call from President Trump later today, Carl Cannon. What should I do? Okay. What say you? They gave her grease to make her happy. And apparently that wasn't good enough because she was still doing business over there. You create a super PAC and you give her the super PAC to run that requires, doesn't require its Senate confirmation. And you never mentioned her name again. Let's say you handle this if you the Trumps. Now you could give her a pardon, Andrew, because there's the possibility of criminal charges here. By the way, her lawyers strongly deny that she did anything illegal and they claim that all these sort of favors she got riding on these Greek magnets, private jets and staying at Georgia Fifth and Paris on somebody else's dime that that was all cleared allegedly by the State Department. We'll see, that'll come out. The pay to play stuff with this guy, Deeter's, that's all interesting too. Those are ethical breaches, not necessarily illegal ones. But if I'm the Trump White House, I'm not telling Trump to give her a pardon because I think that's the leverage you have over her to keep her quiet. Yeah. You better be nice. We're really willing. Definitely not getting a part. I think there's two words, it's Simon E. Schuster or it's book deal, those. That's what's going to happen. I mean, and Burn Book would be a great title. If I, if I were her agent right now, I'd be mocking that up right now and a couple, I'd buy a couple million dollars. I guess that's no problem now. Oh, that's interesting. Steve's telling me that the Burn Book report originally was in Daily Mail, that makes more sense. I'm sure she has a relationship with them. She's, I mean. She has two million. She has two million social media followers, right? She's got a pretty big platform of her own right now. Well, and she can't be diminished the way a lot of Trump critics can as knowing nothing. Like she knows a lot. And I don't know. Perhaps that's why she felt emboldened to take some risks. If in fact, she took them, Andrew, you know, she's denying that she did this stuff and she hasn't really had the chance to present her side of the story yet. But I do think she's a very dangerous woman to this White House. I agree. And I think that she's going to be sued because she's denied that these texts or exchanges are real, so she's being sued over that. So that discovery will be interesting to find out. But I do think that I think the Carl's idea of a super PAC is inspired in some way to keep her quiet. But I really think the big money's in the book. Andy, I just Google, I just go, I asked AI, can Kimberly Guilfoyle write? And AI says, yes, Kimberly Guilfoyle is a published author and writer. She holds a jurist, doctor, degree, and has written professionally throughout her career as a prosecutor, legal, honest, and media personality. Her most notable publish work is her 2015 advice and advocacy book. So I think two million for the manuscript makes sense. Yeah. That'd be a lot. So, you know, memoirs are all the rage right now. I'm married to an author and he's telling me memoirs are crushing it out there at the moment. Go ahead, Tom. If she has a sense of irony, she should talk of the book, honey, please. Oh, that's good. That's good too. Hello. I don't know. Burn book is going to be tough to beat. You mentioned that there's a lawsuit. So we talked about this guy yesterday, Eric Dieters. He was in, he ran for office in Kentucky, didn't go anywhere. But then he got in the Trump orbit and it seems like he did sort of get cozy with team Trump or some members of it, including Kimberly. And he's the one she allegedly went to per the journal and said, honey, please deposit $100,000 my bank account before my confirmation hearings because I need to make my finances look stronger than they are. The all of them have to be disclosed. And I'll give you. Here's the MX number or address, just send the check directly to them. And he said, I would have to get a divorce in order for me to do this. I don't think Kimberly Gelfoy wants to get into a deposition about this issue at all. I don't think she wants questions being asked like, how many others did you ask or have you asked to make deposits, to make deposits like this for you? That is not, that's not a good question for her. And here's what Eric Dieter is saying in SOT7. >> Well, I'm going to sue those lawyers, that law firm and Kimberly Gelfoyle. Here in Kentucky, it's going to be fun. They're going to have to come to Kentucky. I'll take their depositions for the following reasons. They first said that the text messages were fake defamation. Then they said I was a known black man, never black manned by my life, defamation. And now they're claiming that they're invoices when she knows that's not true. And all the text messages, she doesn't mention anything about me owe and money. What she's talks about is aporing this. So what she asked me to do was make up that I owed her money and write her a letter and I did that for her. He knows that is phony and I'm going to be suing them all for defamation. >> Oh boy, and here's the other thing. He says, first they said those text messages were fake. The journal had a report last night saying her initial defense to the Trump administration was they were AI, that they were AI generated and that the Trump administration did not believe that. They thought she was lying and that they then felt that they had verified the messages as legit and they did believe she did what the journal said she did. So this is getting hairy and I don't know if I'm Trump, I want to press the eject button on this whole thing. Maybe the super pack is the way because it's, look, this is a leftist story. The left is loving this right because it's a Trump ambassador. It's somebody who is a Trump girlfriend. It's somebody who's got the goods on the Trumps and now even though she professed her loyalty in her ex statement yesterday, we see this report in the daily mail. She is no fool. She knows how to use the media. Trust me. And to me, that's a warning shot across the bow. Like be careful. I stepped down because I may have done some things that weren't perfectly ethical, allegedly reportedly, but that doesn't hobble me, Tom. Yeah, I mean, the problem with this story for her is, is the guy we just saw. I mean, that first journal report, he gave them everything and so it's hard to, it's hard to refute that and I guess the lesson is, you know, and the reason he did that is because he allegedly paid her something like $300,000 and he didn't get anything for it. There was, it was, you know, she did not hold up her end of the Payola bargain, I guess. And so he went to the journal and he gave him all these texts and everything and that set off, you know, it is interesting. The most interesting thing about this is, is where the other leaks came from. As soon as that first journal report started, then, then there were these other leaks about all the stuff that was going on in Europe and Greece. You mentioned travel. Yeah, I was, so there were definitely people who use that as an emphasis to pull out the knives and, and ultimately, they got her and, and so she's, it's going to be interesting to see how she responds and how and if the Trumps can somehow keep her from going completely nuclear, which to your point, Megan, she might be willing to do and, and it might not be, particularly in advance of election where there's talk of, you know, corruption and all the stuff. It wouldn't be, it would not be a good series of events for, for Trump or the Republican Party, quite frankly, if she were to do that in the next couple of weeks. Well, that's reportedly why they turfed her Carl because we have three weeks to go until the election and this was not a good story for team Trump at all. And the journal was not letting up and it was spreading. The Daily Mail was doing its own exclusives by the time she got fired on different angles of the story and that what's being reported today is that the Trump administration, Trump himself said, this is, these are not good facts for us out there. I don't want people thinking about a corrupt team member out there grifting off of effectively the American taxpayer because we're the ones who put her in this position instead of just doing the people's business, you know, within weeks of the midterms. Like, I don't, none of this is good for me and that he also reportedly did not appreciate her trying to make money off of the Trump presidency. Only he gets to do that. Well, yeah. Well, that's the, that's the part that doesn't, it, it's cognitive dissonous. I mean, so she's, she gets a hundred thousand dollar AMX bill paid, but Trump and his sons make billions on crypto and real estate deals and, and, but the, your point, Megan, he wanted to make that all a go away. He didn't want this conversation. They, the, the thinking was let's just, and they made it really pretty quickly. Let's just ask her to resign. They, they gave her some tepid praise publicly, thanked her for her service and hoped it would go away. I, I don't know whether the story is going away because there's certain elements of the, uh, legacy media that doesn't seem to really love Donald Trump and, um, and they made one. Well, in the inspector general, they want to keep it going. But Megan, I want to go back to something you said because I don't want to miss an opportunity here. Um, this, if we're in the self dealing, if we're talking about that, you said memoirs are selling, um, you have a lot bigger audience than we do. So I should probably say on this show, my father, Luke Cannon, his memoir just came out this week. It's called. Oh, it's called Luke Cannon from Ronald Reagan to Rodney King, chronic, chronic, chronicling America in an age of optimism, LSU press put it out. And so, and, I mean, he's not around. He passed in December, so he can't talk about it, but I wanted you to know about it. It's it. Oh, that's sweet. Oh, Carl. That's nice. I actually, I'll take a look at it. Thank you for the tip. Apparently, the memoir is, is all the rage right now. We had Ari Emmanuel on the show on Friday, his debuted at number two and he's, you know, he's a guy who's sort of independently famous, but mostly famous for helping other people become more famous. So, yeah, there is a market and I'm sure there would be a market for hashtag burn book. Here's one more stop from Eric Dieter to CNN, just this week, sat eight to be clear. Do you owe Ambassador Gilfoil any money at this point? I do not owe any money from Ambassador Gilfoil and that's why I'm going to sue him for defamation. And you know what's so funny? If I was such a cash-strapped millionaire, then how come I have never had to pay one single person, one nickel, and any litigation type expense, I'm just fine, but I can tell you's not fine, Kimberly Gilfoil. And by the way, I've communicated with the Trump administration today and I told them and I let them know I'm going to be suing them for defamation and the story's not going to go away. Who would you talk to in the Trump administration? I sent an email to Don Jr. Susie Wiles who I have plenty of other times in the past. Hmm, good question by John Burman. So, as the world turns, today's chapter closes, another begins, quick break, we're back with the guys right after this. The pet food industry won't tell you that the real story is in the ingredient panel, not on the front of the bag. Sundays for dogs made a deliberate choice. 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The guys from real clear politics are back with me now, Tom Bevin, Karl Cannon, and Andrew Wallworth. Find them on YouTube, podcast platforms, or on the Megan Kelly channel on SiriusXM 111. Right before this show, it's a great lineup, love the show, you guys. Okay, let's talk about Kamala Harris because she's back in the news, my friends, Andrew just left the screen. She's back in the news, she went on that hard-hitting program. What's it called? Kiki? Kiki? Knows all? Kiki? Something? I don't know what it is. Baby, this is Kiki Palmer. Andrew, why don't you jump in to help me? Well, she'd go on, and she was asked about a lot of things, including the midterms and whether she was going to run. She was also asked about her laugh, and she said this. She said, those who try to take your joy are trying to make you weak, and that's where my fight comes in. For the anyone who mocks her, she said this, "There's nothing you can do to me that will take my joy. You are not that powerful." So sort of the kind of therapy-speak you expect from her. Not quite a word, salad. We have that. A little good. That's right. Let's listen to it. Andy's favorite, Sat 12. Those who try to take your joy are trying to make you weak, and that's where my fight comes in. I know what you're trying to put. You're not going to take my joy, right? You can, there's nothing you can do to me that will take my joy. You are not that powerful. You're very brave. Oh, my Lord. We all are sweetheart. I just threw up my mouth a little, but she said to me, "That's why I interviewed people, crying." So I interviewed senators and congressmen, former vice presidents, who are very brave. With a skirt off, that looks like a belt and dabbing at your eyes, Carl, when they say something truly profound. That was moving. She said something that was odd because she was asking these questions, and then she said about Trump and the First Amendment, banning the reporters from the pool and stuff, and she said, "If you want to do things in secret, why don't you just leave the White House?" And I didn't even track, I didn't follow the point. She said that on the same interview. But also the Biden-Harris White House wants to lecture us about keeping secrets. Please stop. Wait. What a joke. I mean, keeping secret that the president wasn't cognizant anymore. You think that's a secret here? Yeah. Right. When she continues to maintain, she's one of the few Democrats who surrounded him who's still trying to peddle the lie that he was fine and she had no idea. Here, let's see, I want to get the, yeah, here it is, stop 13. This is classic, her. Before I really let you out of here, are you ready for president? Oh, girl. Come on. Oh, just a good, just a good, just a good, just a good, no, you're not getting out of here. We have to know because you know what people want to know. Oh my God. Are we going to get another moment? I haven't decided. I haven't decided yet. I will. I promise. We'll be waiting to hear the midterms, the midterms, the midterms. Okay. The midterms. 28, that matter. We don't do 26, right? That's right in front of us. Yeah. Focus on the president. Please. Meanwhile, Keke's like, what's happening in 26? Well, there was a moment of journalism. It was at least some journalism there. That was the question that she needed to be asked. Are you running for president? This is what Colman Harris has to do. She's got to go to people, dumber than she is, so that she can feel smart and that the, at least one person in the room thinks she's smart. And she can be like this mother earth, you know, like mama law, like Drew Barrymore called her. You know, this is what she wants to do. But you tell me, Tom, you tell me, why is she sitting down with a black woman who's got a largely black female audience, trying to shore up support if she's not thinking about running for president? Well, she's definitely thinking about running for president. I don't think there's any question about that. And, you know, South Carolina's first black women are a big part of the overall democratic constituency, but particularly in that state, being the first democratic primary. So she presents a problem if she does run. I mean, I'm Gavin Newsomarty said he's not going to run if she does, but you look at the other candidates that are there. The problem is Megan that everybody knows that she sucks as a candidate. She's not very good. And you know, she didn't even make it to the starting line in 2020 when she ran the dem primary. She got a good look. You remember she had the debate moment with Biden saying that little girl, you know, is me and then she was selling t shirts and, and, but from that point on, it was all downhill until she was out of the race. And then when she was vice president, she went through like, I don't know, 10 different reboots. They were constantly trying to like reboot her image and get her some because she was just failing. And then. All of her staff was leaving. It was a market situation. She had a lot of turnover. Yeah. And then she gets the, she gets basically anointed when Biden drops out and she runs a hundred and seven day campaign where she spent over a billion dollars and she loses to Trump. And you know, people say, well, if she only have more time, no, it's the exact opposite. Her favorability ratings peaked like two weeks after she was in the early part of September, right after she was Biden dropped out and think on July 21st. And from that point on, the more she was exposed and she didn't, she didn't have any press conferences, she got softball questions, she couldn't answer. The longer she was out there, the more that she was exposed to the public, the worse it was for her. And so everybody knows that, but they're not really willing to say it. They're waiting for her and eventually, you know, she's going to be, if she does run, she'll probably do well in South Carolina, but then beyond that, we'll see how it goes. And I think that's why this race is so, so wide open whether she runs or whether she doesn't run. In her case, familiarity breeds contempt. There is a big article in yesterday's Politico, Carl, the title of which is, she totally blew it. How Kamala Harris wasted a year to make her case. Harris has offered voters almost nothing in the way of specifics about how she would remake a Democratic Party hungry for change after another term of Donald Trump. And it goes on to cite a bunch of Democratic strategists and donors by name this time. You know, for a long time, we've had anonymous Dems diss her in the press. But now you're getting actual donors and strategists by name on the record in Politico saying, like this one, she totally blew it. She hasn't gotten into the mix. That was Doug Herman, a lead male strategist for Barack Obama's campaigns. And you've got, listen to this, okay, there's plenty of other examples of them, like specifically saying, here's one, I'm looking at all kinds of candidates for 2028 and she's not necessarily one of them said, so it said Lori Black, a San Diego-based donor, a long time Harris supporter. It's not that I don't think she's qualified, but I want to support a winner in 2028. And I just don't know if the vice president has the juice. Another California-based fundraiser could think, could not think of a single person in their circle who wants Harris to run again. She has good lists, et cetera, but there are no obvious big donors that have indicated they want to go down that road. Perhaps worse for Harris, right, Politico, is not that strategists and donors are down on her 2028 chances, but that they're not talking about her at all. The discourse about her among other 2028 hopefuls and plugged in donors has been practically silent, a sign that few believe she will actually jump into the race, let alone prove to be a threat. And this is on top of seeing a leak earlier this week that her husband Doug M. Hoff doesn't want her to run, no one wants Kamala Harris to run, other than Kiki, what's happening in 2026. >> Yeah, what that tells me, Megan, these, she doesn't need money to run the way these other candidates do. She, her name ID is 100%. As Tom pointed out, the first Democratic primaries in South Carolina, she would be hard to beat there. These people are not coming out against her because they don't think she can get the nomination. They are coming out against her because they think she would get the nomination and then lose in the general election to JD Vance or Marco Rubio or some other Republican. worried that she wouldn't be a winning general election candidate. They're worried that she will be nominated. So that, I think that's the way, at least that's the way I look at it. And in terms of Gavin Newsom, these guys, you weren't there, Megan, these two guys beat the crap out of me for days after Newsom told Jake Tapper, he wouldn't run if she runs. But I sure like somebody to maybe Newsom, maybe Newsom knows something, maybe he's on the something here. And then in the end, she'll be persuaded not to run and he'll look like a noble person who can then go into South Carolina and compete for the African American vote. Maybe she'd even endorse him. No, I don't know. They didn't buy it. I don't know. I'm not sure. I don't know. She can endorse a white man. I really don't. I like it. Is there going to be another black woman running or a woman of color like AOC and does she endorse that person? Yeah. So it's like, I'm not sure in the in the world where identity politics reigns supreme. Just don't know whether Kamala Harris can endorse. I'll win. Gavin Newsom. But it seems to me. Newsom didn't just blurt that out to Jake Tapper. He'd given it some thought. Yep. Really? Here's the other question I have for you guys because you guys have been stupidest thing. You guys have been talking about. You don't, you don't buy it. We know what you guys think. You already said that. I was doing a mega chance to say how smart I am, but she didn't go there. You wouldn't be here if I didn't believe that. Here's one thing I do want to listen, hear you guys on because I've been listening to you debate on your show about where are things for real in these midterm elections? Because what you're getting now from Republican circles, you know, the Trump allies and all of Fox News is don't believe the polls. The polls are fake. It's a Democratic op. We heard it even Rod Blegoy, Rod Blegoyovitch say that it's a Democratic op to drive down enthusiasm on the right and get their candidates over the top to make Republicans feel like there's no shot. They're going to lose whatever, you know, black pill people at home. And you guys have been debating what's real. And I know you've been looking at where are they spending their time and their money, the Republican party and its candidates. Like what are they behaving in a way that tells us they think the polls showing the GOP poised for disastrous midterms are fake. And the answer to that, Andrew, is what? Well, if you look where they're spending their money and where they're spending their time, they are defending a smaller and smaller map as the way they are viewing it. And especially when you look at the president's travel, there's two ways to view it. One is that he's going out there because he's got to shore up red states, even in Alaska, the other day. And Texas three times states that you wouldn't think were in play. So part of it is that he's going there to shore them up. The other thing is that he's not really helpful in swing states. You know, there's a lot of reasons why he's not going to main, but why is he not in Michigan where they've got a shot? Why is he not in some of the other states where it looks like the Republicans might be able to flip? So no, I think when you look at the money and you look, I mean, what do they spend? The $5 million they sent into South Carolina. You wouldn't have thought that would have happened a year ago. Darling Graham. Darling Graham's holding on by a threat. Exactly. So yeah, I think when you look at that and you look at the polls, it's still worth it to look at the polls. It's not looking good for the Republicans right now. You know, Megan, I posted about the Sea of the Day because I was working on the website, updating the website. And the headlines have just been terrible, right, for the GOP and had another one of the day, inflation was up, right, and the last report we're going to get before the election. There was other, you know, other polling about Latinos and on and on and on. And I got a lot of blowback online from exactly, in the exact vein that you can talk about. Oh, this is an, it's an op. The media is, you know, trying to depress, you know, turn out the polls are all bullshit. They're all fake, which, I mean, honestly, even if you look at the polls, I mean, I think we were just talking about this earlier. I think Trafalgar has a poll out and insider advantage both came out with polls showing what was it? Talleriko up in Texas or something like that. Those are Republican leading, yeah, Republican leading pollsters, but even if you take, you agree, okay, that the polls are wrong or that the media is biased against Republicans. Trump is not going to Texas and Ohio and Alaska and Nebraska because, you know, the media is bullshit stories from the media or fake polls. Republicans are not spending money in South Carolina, 8 million in Nebraska, 15 million in Iowa, pulling money out of North Carolina, out of Georgia, out of a lot of these house races. That is not all happening because of some siop that somebody's running against them. That is happening because, as you point out, look, they're, they're the two most important resources that, that the party has is time and money and all of those things, you want to know what's going on in race. You follow the time and the money of the candidates and right now that is all Republicans pouring money into trying to shore up these red states so they don't get washed away in a blue wave. And maybe it's going to work and maybe it'll keep losses down, particularly in the Senate. So the Republicans will hold the Senate. But if they weren't doing that, there's a chance that, you know, and there may still be a chance that the wave is big enough and it breaches those, those firewalls and Republicans end up losing the Senate. But that's where the race is right now, regardless of, you know, all the stuff about the media and the polls. Well, we might make it, forget the siop rap, because that's just kind of crazy. But there, Trump has underpulled every time he's run the, the pollsters can't, and there is sort of a demonstrated unwillingness of certain mega people to respond to pollsters, especially media pollsters. So that's what some of these Republicans and some of these analysts who are being cautious are, are looking at. But the question you asked and what Andy said, I mean, here's a headline today and this, to me, sums up what Andy and Tom have been saying. This was in the daily interlake, that's a newspaper. I believe it's in Calispell, Montana. Trump first sitting president to visit Northwest Montana since Gerald Ford. So the president states his time is precious. He's going to Montana. But he's not going to, that tells me that they're playing defense in places they haven't played defense in years. Yeah, but like I say, it's also the fact that he's not helpful to some of these, in some of these races that are on the bubble. They don't want to send them, the candidates don't want them in Michigan. You know, they don't want, the Democrats don't want to come on a policy that we should say that. But, you know, if you're running in a, in a, in a district or a state where you, that's not red, the president is libelity. So that's, that's another reason why he's going to places like Texas, he's got to go someplace. He doesn't help Susan Collins if he goes to Maine. That's right. He does. No. God no. And Michelle Tafoya, we did a story on her on, am update on how she's actually in contention for the Minnesota governor job. I mean, you'd have to vote against her if you were replacing, sorry, yeah, Senate, you'd have to vote against her if you were playing, you know, the odds just because of Minnesota. But she's got it within two points, and she's given Trump the strong Heisman because it's Minnesota. I mean, I don't think she has anything against Trump, but she needs to telegraph to the Minnesota voters. I'm going to make my own decisions, you know, I'm not going to be a lapdog for him. And Trump probably gets that and is fine with that. I think because he, I think he'd rather have the seat. These elections, midterm elections are base elections and, and, you know, if Trump goes to Minnesota, he's going to turn out the Democratic base. There are more Democrats in Minnesota. So he's going to, he's going to Texas. He's going in Nebraska because there are more Republicans than there are Democrats. And he's trying to get these mega folks to, to go to the polls. He's telling them everywhere he goes, pretend I'm on the ballot, guys. You got to do this for me. It's my, you know, the last time you got to pretend like I'm on the ballot and get your butt to the polls. If that happens, then Republicans will win all these races in these red states. I don't, I mean, I don't see that works because it's like, they know he's not on the ballot. And the second thing is Trump's not as popular as he was when he ran in 2024 and that kind of mess. Like people did get off their couches for Trump. They were so mad about the law fair. They were so impressed with how he got back up. Notwithstanding all the cases against him and the bullets, you know, it was like he was a very inspirational figure for many on the right or center right. And now he's not. It's just his popularity's fallen considerably. The Iran War alienated a lot of people. The Epstein thing. Like there's been a few things. That's, that's what happens when you get into power. So I just, you know, I'm not sure pretend I'm on the ballot is the way to get people out there. But I also don't think the same Republican tropes and they're not tropes. I'm just just lack of a better word are going to motivate people like the culture war stuff. People are pissed. Like the Israel thing is big and the normal things that will smear a left wing candidate as like too far left like this guy else I had like there's a family member who's like pro Muslim brotherhood and I like they don't care. They don't care. They think Mike Rogers is a Neocon that he's going to get us further entrenched in another Middle East war. And there's just nothing you can say as a Republican to really ding the guy up, which is why I think I'll say I'd probably is going to win. That's my own sense. I don't know. We talked about this. We talked about the sonar show in one of the debates that happened last night was in Iowa and Ashley Henson came out distanced herself from President Trump on the diesel deal. She said look we need a lower diesel. the price is about doing a deal with Putin is not the way to go about it. But Turek's response to her was, well, the problem with diesel prices is that your president started a war in the Middle East and another forever war. And you voted seven times in the House not to put any constraints on him. And that's fairly, that's, first of all, it's a policy-based argument. It's not, it's not a personality attack. And second of all, I think it has traction. I think, I think that is a legitimate case to be made again. So Republicans are in really difficult spots in all these races because of the economy, inflation, gas prices, and the president and some of the choices that this president has made over the last two years. Mm-hmm. Yeah. I mean, I think most of us think about that war when we go to fill up our tank. With diesel fuel or gasoline. I always say diesel gas. Am I honest? You don't have an electric car? No, he did. No, no. I don't. But Doug wrote a book on Rudolf Diesel, who is the guy behind the diesel engine and the reason we have diesel fuel. And I always call it diesel gas, which is wrong. And I'm sorry. Anyway, I want to keep going because Harry Enten had some thoughts, though, that I thought this is legit and actually a genuine glimmer of hope for Republicans, not bullshit glimmer, but actual glimmer. Here it is and stop 15. We've had really good democratic holes coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, you know, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times. I just have to ask the question, could it happen again, because just take a look at this. Okay, Midwest polling, Mrs. GOP, I'll perform September polls by in the major 2024 races. That is, President and Senate in the States that had a center race. And Iowa, where the Democrats have been getting really good polls, Republicans outperform their September polls by nine points back in 2024. How about Ohio? Six points. How about Michigan? Five points. And I will note that the leads that the Democrats have and all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperform back in 2024. So you look at this, you go, you know what? Maybe we should just hold on a second here, because we've seen this dance before and it was not a dance that Democrats like when the votes were actually cast and counted. Fair point. No. No, you're saying no. No, I'm saying no. It's not apples to apples. It was 2024. Trump was on the ballot. I mean, that's the whole point. The comparison, it's got to be the 2018 Republicans lost 40, 40 house seats in that race, but they did pick up two Senate seats. That's the, that's sort of the, the analog here. You can't compare a presidential election year to a midterm year and say, well, you know, they overperformed because Trump was on the ballot. And because people had, okay, but wait, Harrietan was ready for you. He took a look at when Trump was not on the ballot in previous midterms. Let's hear what the analysis was there. It's got 16, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024 Republicans and have outperformed their September polls by at least five points in all these three states where Democrats right now are ahead, but not by a wide enough margin whereby if Republicans outperformed their September polls again, it could become very, very interesting. Okay. Now overlay this on the current Senate map. Exactly right. So this is where it all kind of comes together, right? Okay. Let's say that the GOP outperforms their Midwest polls like they did in 2018 and 2024. Well, what do you get? You get a Red Michigan. You get a Red Ohio. You get a Red Iowa. And all of a sudden, even if Democrats carry states like Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Alaska, we guess what you get? You get a 50/50 Senate with JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote. So if history holds in terms of the GOP outperforming their September polls, well, there's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold on the United States Senate, even if Democrats win in places they don't historically win in like Texas. Yeah. Okay. I mean, what's say you to that guys? Well, I have one thought that I'd say. And that is, you guys, you mentioned the Iran War and how that's affecting gasoline prices and public perceptions of the President because it's precisely the kind of thing he said he wouldn't do. But when I, at these rallies, in places that we didn't think were competitive in Nebraska, Iowa, especially Kansas, people are like, they heckled Roger Marshall at his debate without him. Hamilton. And they talked about terrorists and these, in these farm states and these board, these Northern tear border states, I'm talking about Maine and Michigan, but also these farm states, they're laying people off because they're, because of Trump's tariffs and Canada is retaliated against the United States. So it's China. And if you have a president whose policies are hurting you and you voted for him and you didn't see it coming, now he talked about terrorists in the campaign, but I think that, I think it's harder, I think, Megan, I think it's harder to ignore these polls this year because this is not personality, everybody knows how they feel about Trump personally. This is about, they don't like his policies anymore. And that's, that's, that's to me a difference. The other thing is that, you know, you have to remember where we were in the spring when we were talking about these Senate races. I mean, the idea was that the maps so favored the Republicans, the Republicans were easily hold the Senate. That was sort of the narrative in the spring. So for some of them to come out and say, oh, you know, they're going to hold it, you know, 50, 50 and they've still got vice-president vents, that is that, that's really the best news for Republicans right now, that's not, that's not the happy story that they were hoping for. So what do you think is going to happen, Andy, like if you had to predict, I won't hold you to it. But like right now, do you think, do you think both the House and the Senate are probably gone? If I had to, if you had a gun in my head, I would say yes, I would say yes. I think that, that, that, that, how about you, Carl? I, I try not to make predictions, but if I was making a bet, that's not quite a prediction. I would, I would bet that the Republicans pick up the seats they need to control the Senate. And the House has been gone for some time. How about you, Tom? Yeah, I, I think best case scenario in the Senate is 50, 50, and it might get worse than that. I mean, there's still a couple of weeks left, but like you look at these, you look at these posts, and look, I, I will concede the point, although we talked about it earlier, I mean, you know, if you look at the pollsters, we're talking about Trafalgar, insider advantage, Rasmussen, these are not democratic leaning pollsters. These are guys who actually got it wrong in 2018, more wrong than they did. They were right in 2020. They were right in 2024. They were, they were kind of off in 2018 because they were projecting a more Republican electorate than what turned out that year. So, but these races are close. I mean, Talleriko is up two and a half points. I think, you know, Turex up like less than a point in Iowa. These are definitely races is where if the Republicans overperform their polls or the polls are underestimating Republican turnout, that you could see, you know, and the polls have margin of error. So it's not like, it's not like it's impossible that Republicans would, would hold the Senate. There have been some people saying they're going to pick up seats. I don't think that, that doesn't seem very likely to me at all. But it is a weird year. We were talking about this earlier. I mean, you've got, you mentioned Minnesota where, you know, somehow that race is a couple of points. New Hampshire somehow. Cause she's so likable, Michelle Tafoy is so likable and she, they all know her. She's famous. She's kind of like a Carrie Lake in that the, the locals know her. They've been seeing her face on TV as a, you know, very famous sportscaster. People like me don't know her because we don't watch sports. But everybody who watches sports knows Michelle Tafoy, and she's so cool. She's a great, and Peggy Flangan is a fucking nutcase, sorry, forgive me, keep going. >> Well, not only is she, not only she a nutcase, so she's a left-winger. She's not moderating at all. And she's tied to an administration that presided over a bunch of fraud. So you've got particular circumstances that are maybe making that race a little bit closer than it might otherwise be. But New Hampshire is closer than I think people thought, especially given where some of these other races are. But yeah, Republicans, they're playing defense. And they're, to your point, Megan, when you look at sort of the overall picture, is there any reason Democrats are still 100% running the Trump playbook, they are, they are foaming at the mouth once again to turn out against Trump, even though in the Senate, you know, two-thirds of these terms are going to be decided, you know, are going to take place after Trump even leaves office. But nevertheless, they're running against Trump and they're all excited, enthusiasm. And on the Republican side, you've got Republicans that are, you know, they're a little bit de-spirited. They're a little down, you know, the, the Rand War has divided or dampened enthusiasm for some of the rights. So it's, it's just kind of a perfect storm against Republicans. You've got some kind of equality issues on Team D.O.P. too. Like, I realize they thought Corning was too swampy, but Paxton is a mess. He's just a mess. It's like every piece of news you hear about him is negative. He won't debate the guy's like, why wouldn't you go out and try to make mincemeat of James Taloriko? Like, obviously he feels he cannot do it. He can't do it. And he's too vulnerable given his own scandals. So it's just, it's so depressing because that, that ridiculous person, the vegan, not vegan, the thing I love most are trans children. That guy, God is non-binary, is on track to win the seat to become the next U.S. Senator from the state of Texas. I can't quite understand it, but then I look over at Paxton and I'm like, yeah, I'm starting to understand it. Well, I think there's candidate-quality questions on both sides. I mean, you can look at Michigan. You can mean. Oh, yeah. But I'm kind of used to that in the DEMs. Yes, it's true. I guess the other thing that I'd say is that just to defend my pessimistic view for the Republicans is that you went way through three weeks left, right? So you've less than three weeks left. weeks. All the trends, though, are going against the Republicans. Tom has been focused on price of gas, price of gas is not going to come down sufficient between now and election day to make a difference, it doesn't seem to me. Nothing is going to change on the war front. And the White House continues to, every week, surprise us with stories that have nothing to do with the economy or that show that they give a damn about sort of affordability. So if you're in a straight line in the future and you'd say, "What's going to happen out of the White House in the next between now and the election?" You can't predict what it's going to be, but it's not going to be good. We know that from the past. And so as you say, the White House continues to surprise us with stories. Let's finish on the new press secretary, Katie Zakaria. Look, I defended her yesterday because I think she deserves a chance. She's got to get used to the big seat. And of course she was nervous, like anyone would be. No one could be ever be worse than Karee Javir, truly. I don't think anyone could ever be worse than she was. And we were told she's amazing. And that if we don't think that we're racist and sexist and bigoted against gay people. So I'm going to give this gala chance. However day two, there's another news story about her. It's not great. Apparently she did graduate from Pepperdine undergrad and Pepperdine Law School. But you are not actually a lawyer until you've passed the bar exam. You may have a JD, but you're not actually a lawyer until you pass the bar exam. And I guess she worked. She said she held herself out as the general counsel of a nonprofit run by Rick Grinnell in California. And yet she has apparently not passed the bar except in China. So one of the members, I mean, like, of course that doesn't count here, like you, hello. So here, somebody asked her about this on, on, yesterday, Tuesday. Saw 22. She said she's in the journey. Where did she pass the bar exam? Which day? Where did she stay? Hello? So she's not practicing law at the press secretary lectern. But it's a crime to say that you're a to practice law without having passed the bar. So if in fact she was acting as general counsel for this nonprofit, there could be some trouble there. But here we are on day two and she's getting, you know, the colonoscopy that no Democrat press secretary has ever gotten Tom Bevin. And I'm sure they're not done with her. Uh, no, they're not done with her. And we'll see. I mean, look, I did the website this morning and was like looking for stories and combing through stories. There was not a single positive story on her anywhere. I mean, I couldn't find it. It wasn't a great start. But I like you, Megan. This is the toughest job. It is hard. And, you know, Caroline Levitt actually made it look pretty easy. And so I think she struggles hard to follow Caroline. Yeah. It struggles in comparison to Caroline. And to your point, I agree. I think Caroline, Karin Jompier was one of the worst press secretaries in that I've certainly ever seen. Carl goes much further back with some of these individuals. But I think it shows that she wasn't vetted. Like, I didn't even, I'd never even heard her name. I, she wasn't on any list that I had seen, like, where did she come from? Me neither. And, and Mark Halperen. Did you see Mark Halperen's tweet today? He tweeted out, I think it was least vetted of any major administration official ever. Perhaps. And, and that clip you just played showed it drunk kind of turn around. Like, he didn't know. And she was like, I China. And he was kind of like, okay, let's wrap this up and move along. Well, they, not that isn't, she also they didn't prepare for it. Not only did not vetted it, the whole thing had a slapped ass quality to it. Like, they'd given her 45 minutes notice. Now, Susan Crapp, who, you know, Megan, she's, she's lives in Southern California, covers national politics for a, she, she knew Katie, um, Sakarya, but she, you know, she's just, she wasn't a presence in Washington. And she looked, um, she looked nervous. I mean, just to use the obvious word. But also they have a reading this script that's just absurd. And, and, you know, Trump, Trump's, and Trump's one day war that he ended it, I presume they mean Venezuela, you know, saying all the things that Trump said, if he was willing to give that job to a fully developed political person with savvy like, uh, Scott, um, Jennings, Jennings on CNN, you know, Scott was, I'm not going to say this, I'll give the president credit, I'm not going to, this, this fawning silly stuff is doesn't help you, sir. But she doesn't have the statute to do that. And so she just sort of reads this thing and then realize she's in over her head and bales. And I, I, I, I felt for her. I, I don't, I don't really blame her. I don't think she was prepared. I think she was set up to fail and I, and I don't think it's, it's, it's almost cruel. Here's what I think though. I think Trump, there's no one better at assessing talent on television than Trump. Like, he is a very effective judge of it. So I think he's seen something in her behind the scenes that he thinks is promising, um, which is why I think just hold your fire, you know, like, let's, let's see if she can do it. He is a very good judge of that kind of thing. No one ever heard of Caroline Levitt either. No one knew who Caroline Levitt was. It was like, isn't she the girl who does like some tweets for his campaign? She wasn't a star. She wasn't somebody we were all like, oh, yeah. And she, she was a star. Now she had a much better start than this gal did, but it's early, like, I, I'm going to wait and see. And the more negative articles they write about her on it, it's not great if she practiced law without a, without a license, that's, that's a problem. It's not exactly relevant to whether she can be the press secretary, but the more they pile on her on the left wing media, the more I'm rooting for her. That's just the way it works. I think for most people who lean right. So we'll see. We'll see. All right. Last but not least, can anyone tell me who Jamie West is? Do you know that name? Jamie West. Jamie West. You do know who it is. Even if you don't know, you know, if you don't know, you know, you do know, Jamie West. It's a Democrat running for now. It's going to become familiar. Oh, that one. They end counting. Yeah. Yeah. Yep. All right. In Indiana. And she's soon to become a household name, Jens. Here's a bit of how that went poor poor Jamie. And that's what I have to say about that. Okay. And our last question of the night is, if elected, what is one decision that you expect to make that may be unpopular with some voters, but you believe ultimately would be in the best interest of Fayette County? I wouldn't raise your taxes. What is the one decision that I would make? Repeat that again. That may be unpopular with some voters, but is in the best interest of the county. Buying all our Republicans, I wouldn't let them, I mean, I don't even talk to them. I don't like them. I mean, they voted against our own state representative voted against her own party. What do you want me to say? I don't like being around them. I mean, y'all did this to us. You all voted for us. You made this happen. This ice coming into our communities, stealing people's jobs. I mean, I've been threatened so many times to my face, my MAGA will calm. Because there's Republicans who actually get it, you know, there are good Republicans out there. They didn't know she's MAGA's, who were just racist and aren't very intelligent at all. They call you names, they, you know, sheriffs, nephews threaten to blow my head off, but, you know, what are you going to do? Well, that brings us to your opportunity to say just a few last words to, to the voters. We have guns too. All right. She's like a, like a super partisan shit-faced forced gump. That's all I have to say about that. The best is the moderator. All right. Okay. I have to keep a straight face across from that. That's like the, the drunk parody that I will sometimes do. Fire all Republicans. I don't even want to talk to them. I don't like them. You all did this to us. You did this to us. Oh, man. She's, she's comically big in it, Megan, but she's also dangerous. We have guns too. That's a very ominous threat for a drunk to say. So, do we, do we feel that this is the end of her campaign? Guys, just based on your experience. says political pundits, I'm going to go ahead and say if she got this far, she's probably going to all the way. >> I think the Democrats are cleaner and run her for Senate. [LAUGH] >> Why stop there? She could be Kamala Harris is running me, she made her look sober. >> Well, they would, they would, they would need to buy the short name bulk for that, that would be. >> [LAUGH] >> We've got to go for the full fronze, a box one on that, just one little bottle, ain't good to do it. >> Good luck, Jamie. Good luck as Joe Biden said, good luck in your senior year, the best thing we got from Joe Biden was that saying. Gentlemen, a pleasure, thanks for being here. >> Thanks, Megan, any time. >> All right, up next, we have an update for you on a crime story that we brought you in our MK Confidential series this summer. Wait until you hear what's happening in the case of Stephanie Lazarus, okay? That's next. Let's talk about something that is not always the most comfortable subject, but it's incredibly important. Making sure the people you love have financial security if something happens to you. 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Our sponsor, the electronic payments coalition says Washington politicians are always getting in your wallet, and now they're messing with your credit card. They say your credit card and the security it offers are under attack, and that senators Dick Durbin and Roger Marshall want to change the nation's payment system to benefit corporate megastores like Walmart and Target at the expense of everyday Americans. Credit cards can keep your payments secure and provide rewards that families use to help make everyday purchases more affordable. The electronic payments coalition says the Durbin Marshall mandates would let corporate megastores cut corners on credit card processing, on routing transactions over cheaper, untested networks with weaker security and fewer protections. Find out more for yourself at guardyourcard.com and consider telling Congress to guard your card. Hey everyone, it's me, Megan Kelly, I've got some exciting news. I now have my very own channel on SiriusXM, it's called the Megan Kelly channel and it is where you will hear the truth unfiltered with no agenda and no apologies. Along with the Megan Kelly show, you're going to hear from people like Mark Halpren, Blake Lauren, Maureen Callahan, Emily Doshinsky, Jesse Kelly, Real Clear Politics, and many more. It's bold, no BS news, only a Megan Kelly channel, SiriusXM 111 and on the SiriusXM app. A California parole board has just considered parole once again for a former Los Angeles police detective convicted of murdering her ex-lovers new wife more than 40 years ago. MK Confidential listeners will remember Stephanie Lazarus was convicted in 2012 of killing Sherry Rasmussen. Sherry was shot three times in her Van Nuys condominium in 1986. Sherry had married John Routon, a former love interest of the disgraced cop who would turn into a murderer just three months earlier and Stephanie was obsessed with John and very angry at his new wife for existing. The case went unsolved for decades until DNA from a bite mark on the victim ultimately was used to link Lazarus to the killing, technology and science progressed and eventually they realized they might be able to use that bite mark to actually find the killer and realized cops did it was one of their own and 2023 Lazarus admitted to the murder for the first time in an effort to get herself paroled. Last Friday she was back in front of the parole board and back again was Sherry's sister Connie who joins me now and she was part of our MK Confidential series on this along with Jessica and Rachel who are Stephanie's, I'm sorry, forgive me, who are Sherry's nieces. Thank you all so much for joining me, Connie, great to see you again. So once again, you and Rachel, I know you two have been going to each one of these making sure that the parole board understands while Stephanie Lazarus says she's sorry now and purports to take responsibility for killing Sherry now, it's always half measures. She always says only enough that she thinks we'll get her a pass from the parole board but never takes full accountability. So before we get to how it all went, let me start with you Rachel because I haven't met you yet even though you were just a baby when your aunt was killed and I know she adored you and held you in her arms and loved you. What did you tell the parole board to convince them not to let this woman out? My biggest takeaway and ask from the parole board was that she is not demonstrated rehabilitation. She's done numerous programming all the classes, she can do all the things that she can check list off but she's not able to internalize and demonstrate that she understands anything that she's learned in therapy or her classes. She continues to minimize, she continues to do image management and manipulate the system and the people around her and so I've asked that she can't be let back into the community because she still has a public safety risk because she still can't be honest and is still unable to internalize what she did. And I know you Jessica, this is your aunt who is murdered and I know you told them, I'm reading here from your statement, if Lazarus continues minimizing the obsession stalking and escalation that preceded Jerry's murder, how can those closest to her recognize those warning signs if they appear again? I think that's such a great point that she is very clearly able to hide her sociopathy in a way that innocent civilians may not be able to detect. Yes, also those closest to her. So her group support system that she is claiming that she has, if she does receive parole, are only hearing her minimization, not the full extent of her heinous crimes. So how would they know what to be looking for if they don't know what really happened and she's minimizing everything that she has done? Because the thing is Connie, she's clever. This one's clever and she was smart enough to evade detection for some two decades. So we're not dealing with some dope who can't figure out how to fool others about who she really is. Correct, she has used every opportunity to appeal her to conviction even though she knew she didn't. She continues to use every opportunity to get earlier parole hearings. The last hearing, we were granted a three year review but we were back in 18 months. So we know that we're confronted with somebody that knows the system and so we've had to educate ourselves about the system and how we can fight for justice for Sherry. And I know one of the things that you all have been doing is reading and playing the video of, if you can, the thoughts of your granddad, Connie's and Sherry's father who fought so tirelessly to find her killer. He's since passed as has Connie's mom and Sherry's mom, but Teresa, who's not with us today, that's your other sister. But his words have carried through because he made it his life's mission to make sure that the killer was caught. And once we knew it was Stephanie Lazarus, Rachel, that she would stay behind bars. And ultimately you did get a ruling from the parole board on Friday and what did they say? They denied her parole for three years. They did ask her to continue with her programming because they still think that she continues with the minimization and criminal thinking. Thank God. But the problem here, Connie, we talked about this the last time is even though they denied it, you guys are never able to heave a sigh of relief because this woman continues to work the system aggressively, like somebody who operated inside of it for decades. Yes. Well, when we see her three years, we know now that it's going to be 18 months. So we have at least 18 months to take a breath and live our lives, but know that we will be back to fight for justice. And we continue to reach out to certainly all Sherry's friends, her colleagues. that the hospitals that she worked at, I even have continued to reach out to mom and dad's friends that are still with us and they continue to fight and we will continue to fight for justice for Sherry. - We have to stay on it because public pressure on the parole board and ultimately, if we needed on Gavin Newsom, to not allow her early release is important. And I know that's what you three are doing here, that's what you've been doing. I thank you all for coming on and keeping us abreast of the latest. We do not want this woman getting out of prison even one day early. All the best to you and your whole family. - Thank you, thank you. - Thank you. - Wow, that's, it's an amazing series. If you want to hear it and watch it on MkConfidential, it's on our website. Now you can see it on your YouTube feeder on our podcast feed and we will continue to stay on it so that this moment does not get out early. Thank you all so much for joining us today. We will see you tomorrow, send me an email on what you think of the show, Megan at MeganCali.com. Thanks for listening to the MeganCali show, no BS, no agenda, and no fear. (upbeat music)