The Gulf states fear renewed war after the midterms

It's considered this, where every day we go deep on one big news story. Over the weekend, while many people in the U.S. focused on midterm elections, officials from the Gulf Arab countries met at the Ritz Carlton and Bahrain's capital. Their hope? Stop a new round of U.S. attacks on Iran. A third aircraft carrier has joined the U.S. naval presence off the coast of Iran, and the U.S. has pulled diplomats out of the region. Iran says that if it's attacked, it will target U.S. military bases and oil and gas facilities in Arab states. So Qatar has been leading an intense, renewed effort to reach a diplomatic solution. We're hoping that we will see a breakthrough. That's Onwar Gargash, a senior UAE official at the summit. Because it is not in the interests of the region to go through another round, and indeed not the interests of Iran also, to go through another round of confrontation. The U.S. wants the Strait of Hormuz open, and for Iran to make major concessions on its nuclear program. Iran has been making its own proposals to avoid a confrontation and is asking the U.S. questions. Iran's Foreign Minister says the outcome hinges on the answers they get to those questions. At the G20 summit in Atlanta, Secretary of State Mark Rubio was asked if the U.S. will restart strikes on Iran. First of all, I'm not going to comment about what the U.S. may or may not do militarily, nor am I going to be up here and broadcast at any decision in that regard has been made. Consider this. The Gulf nations have been watching the U.S. and the Israeli elections closely and are worried about what comes after. They don't want to see another round of war. From NPR, I'm Sasha Feiffer. It's considered this from NPR. In the Middle East, the uncertainty of what comes after the U.S. midterm elections has the entire region on edge. Over the weekend, NPR's international correspondent Aya Betrawi was at a security conference in Bahrain. I asked her about the mediation efforts there, and what President Trump has been saying about the possibility of more attacks on Iran. All right. So Qatar has been really tight-lipped about what's been going on. They did have some mediators visiting to Iran and also Iran had a delegation in Doha Qatar. All of this over the past 72 hours. But Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqji today was quoted in Iranian state media saying there's still no definitive conclusion to these mediation efforts. But he said there is talk of a two-day plan. That would include basically the Iranians not attacking ships in the street of Hormuz to allow for direct talks to begin again between Washington and to Iran. And Trump was asked about the possibility of restarting the war with Iran. He was at a Halloween party at Marlago, and he said, "We're not in that much of a hurry. Have a listen." We've knocked out almost every piece of military equipment there. We've knocked out a lot of that manufacturing game. We've knocked out the nuclear. We still have to take care of, I would say one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes. So as you heard there, President Trump isn't really saying what he might do after two days' elections. Now, everyone I have been speaking to in the Gulf from senior European diplomats to Arab military generals. No one has any idea what Trump will do. But the lives of tens of millions of people in the Gulf hinge on his decision. And we have heard President Trump say many times that Iran is essentially finished. We heard him say that again in the cut you just played for us. Based on your reporting, how true is that? Yeah. I mean, Iran was hit hard after the US and Israel launched this war eight months ago, killing the country's supreme leader, top military commanders, taking out many of its ships, missile production sites. But even after eight months of war and crippling U.S. economic sanctions, the war has not toppled Iran's regime as Israel said it was its stated goal. And Iran's revolutionary guard force is still very capable of inflicting pain on Gulf Arab countries. These are some of the world's most important oil and gas producers. And this war and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hermos has caused oil and gas prices to rise globally. Brent crude oil is 60 percent higher today than it was before the war. A.A. You said that Iran couldn't flick pain on other Gulf Arab countries. Is Iran saying what it would do if it's attacked again? Yes, the message from Iran's supreme leader, Moushtaba Khamenei, to senior commanders of Iran's armed forces this weekend, is that any threat to the country must be met with an immediate response that is, quote, without geographical limitations. Now, Iran's state media says this means that any new Israeli or U.S. attacks on Iran will inflict even greater damage than we have already seen. We mentioned that you're in Bahrain. Are you seeing signs of damage? Is it evident where you are? Yeah, so Bahrain is an island nation, it's a tiny country in the Persian Gulf with Iran as it's much larger neighbor to the east, and it's home to the U.S. Navy's Fifli. But on the first day of this war in February 28th, Iran hit back at U.S. military sites across the region, and they hit here on the Fifli, its logistics hub and warehouses. So you can't take photos of facilities like this here in Bahrain that have been hit, but you can see the damage to the Fifli's hub right there from the highway. I could see radar equipment that had been hit, and I could see charred in black and warehouses where the Fifli logistics hub is, and there used to be 8,000 military personnel on this base before the war, and now it's down to less than 100. Now I have been at the Manama dialogue, it's a security form here in Bahrain, and today Bahrain's foreign minister Abdelatif al-Zayani spoke of the many missiles and drones fired at his country by Iran, not just at U.S. military sites, but also civilian infrastructure. And he noted that Iran's revolutionary guard this month has made new threats to hit undersea internet cables that carry data through the street of her moves to Gulf states if a war resumes. Have a listen. This follows the same pattern we have seen at sea. A shared artery is being used as a tool of pressure and threat. And Iran did hit Amazon data centers at the peak of this war in the United Arab Emirates in Bahrain. And you mentioned that you're at a security forum given that security is top of mind for the whole region now. What kind of motions, sort of emotional tenor conversations are you hearing at that event? Yeah. I mean, Gulf Arab states, they view Iran as a top threat to their security, but it is still their neighbor. And so while they welcome U.S. pressure on Iran, they did not and do not want war with Iran. Even the United Arab Emirates, which has strong ties with both the U.S. and Israel, and has the most hawkish policy in the Gulf on Iran does not want more war. Senior Emirati diplomat Anwar Gargar said it clearly today at the summit. We really have to deal with this crisis with a lot of wisdom, with political tools being our main tools, and with the understanding that military solutions will only complicate the current, very complicated scene that we have, and will not actually bring any quick offer up to the solution. Yeah. So as you heard him say, their military solutions will not bring a quick off ramp here. And you know, places like Dubai known as Safe Havens to invest in and spend your invocations in. That's all been shaken by this war. Economies across the Gulf are suffering. And don't forget Saudi Arabia is struggling now to protect its airports and oil facilities from attacks by Iran back to these in Yemen. So the United message here from the Gulf is that more attacks on Iran will be devastating. And the ripple effects of the war are rippling all across the region for sure. That is NPR's International Correspondent, Aya Betrawi. Aya, thank you. Thank you, Sasha. This episode was produced by Christopher Harland-Dunaway, our director is Michael Levit. It was edited by Sarah Robbins, our executive producer is Courtney Dorning. Learn more at plus.npr.org. It's considered this from NPR, I'm Sasha Fiverr.