The GOP’s ‘Asteroid’ Moment

This show is sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Insurance isn't one size fits all. That's why drivers have enjoyed Progressive's Name Your Price tool for years now. With the Name Your Price tool, you tell them what you want to pay, and they'll show you options that fit your budget. So whether you're picking out your first policy or just looking for something that works better for you and your family, they make it easy to see your options. Visit Progressive.com to find a rate that works for you with the Name Your Price tool. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. Price and coverage match limited by state law. It's Thursday, November 5th, and the race for 2028 just began. We start here. Vice President J.D. Vance reacts to sweeping Republican losses by blaming his own boss's war. This isn't a tsunami. This is an asteroid hitting. This party has two brief years for a makeover, so what's it about to look like when it's done? Meanwhile, some congressional leaders are already stepping aside. And Mike Johnson essentially said, I want no part in this. I'm not going to run for minority leader. Musical chairs has begun in the Capitol. And you know what elections don't cut across party lines? Ones like these. For Idaho State Gun, the M1 Garand. The ballot measures across the country that are reshaping cities and states. From ABC News, this is Start Here. I'm Brad Milkey. Good morning. Happy Thursday. Thanks to those of you who reached out. Yesterday, after our special election coverage, I feel like half the messages were like, great show, really useful as I started my day. The other half were just expressing concern for whether the team and I got enough sleep. But the much more real concerns yesterday were emanating from Republican circles. Because ever since we posted our episode, there have been new developments. We show the country that when everyday people come together, we can make change. Early in the morning, numbers were still coming in. Democratic victors on the West Coast filled out the ranks of what is now expected to be a huge majority in the House. Then as ballots were counted in even tighter races nationwide, you had Republican candidates conceding defeat in Michigan, in Ohio, North Carolina, including the guy that led the National Republican Campaign Committee. He lost his seat. Alaska is a force to be reckoned with. We are standing up. We are fighting back. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola retained her lead in the Senate race. Although, since so many Alaskans vote by absentee ballot, some of these areas are so remote that count could take days. And in Mississippi, yes, Mississippi, a Democrat spent much of the day ahead. As I say this to you, this race is still only separated by dozens of votes. But the fact it's even close, after Donald Trump won that state by 22 points a couple years ago, shows just how vast this Democratic turnaround was. In fact, forget Congress for a second. A Democrat will now be the Attorney General of Ohio. A Democrat will be the Secretary of State in Indiana. Democrats in Georgia will control not just the governor's mansion, but the AG's office, the Labor Commission, the school districts. I mean, when the winds are this sweeping, it is a whole new ballgame. Which is why yesterday, as the reality set in, Republicans began casting blame. The American people didn't like this midterm redistricting, didn't like the fact that the leader of the country was trying to rig what went on in the midterm elections. I don't have any answers. I can just tell you it's been the great honor of my life to serve the state of Kansas for 10 years. This is close to an extinction level event for Republicans in many parts of the country, as we have seen probably in the last hundred years. Everyone seemed to agree this was a disaster. The question is why? Well, the thing a lot of Republicans would probably rather not say out loud is the role that President Donald Trump and Trumpism itself played in this election. Yesterday, that vibe seemed to shift as we heard direct criticism of Trump administration priorities, including criticism from the vice president himself. Let's start the day with Sarah Isger. She has run Republican presidential campaigns in the past. She's now an ABC News contributor. Sarah, first off, was this all hyperbole, this reaction? Or do Republican leaders really feel shaken to their core? This is a different election than we have seen in my lifetime and really for the vast majority of us. The majority of Americans in their lifetime, you know, since the early 1970s. So there is no question Republicans thought they would have a bad night. This isn't, you know, a tsunami. Is that existential for what the party is about right now? I think it's existential for whether the Republican Party continues. I mean, the Whig Party, remember, dies in the 1850s. And that's what gives birth to the Republican Party when Abraham Lincoln wins in 1860. I think there's some change. There's some chance you are literally for the second time in American history seeing the death of a political party. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans. And this is so important to me. Donald Trump took over the Republican Party in 2016 and he transformed what it meant to be a Republican and what the Republican Party stood for. Ten years later, almost to the day, by the way, and we have transformed the Republican Party since then. And I don't know what that means. And what you heard from voters this week is a total repudiation of everything about that party. You know, every list I've seen of why Republicans lost. It's like, yes. And yes, it's tariffs. Yes, it's the Iran war. But don't forget also the attitude, the vibe of the party itself was rejected. And in that sense, it does look like the rejection of the Whig Party when it died in the early 1850s. And that's when it's. It's the only time in history that a third party has actually come into American politics successfully. And the argument is really that it wasn't a third party because the other party had died. Well, and so all that brings us, like you said, there's all these things sort of bubbling among Republican voters and among independent voters. Brings me to J.D. Vance because he writes this long, very deliberate message yesterday on social media that says there will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened, why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me our economic messaging wasn't sharp enough down the stretch. I'm sure that's true. But then he says the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. It's the war in Iran. Is that him? Not me. I mean, throwing his own administration under the bus. Yes. I mean, look, we all knew that this would happen. This is the least surprising part of this week, which is that the twenty twenty eight Republican primary started Tuesday around eleven p.m. And as soon as the as soon as the Senate flips, it's like, oh, it's president time now. That's right. J.D. Vance obviously is is looking at his own political future. And this week's midterm election was catastrophic for that future. And the way he sees forward is to say, if we can cabin this to the Iran war, it is the one area in which he has clearly and knowingly broken from President Trump. And so that allows him a path forward to the Republican nomination. To call it a wave, I don't think would be fully accurate. It's the political equivalent of a meteor strike. You, of course, see Ron DeSantis in Florida also throwing his hat into the ring with a very different explanation, of course, for why Republicans lost so badly. The Ron DeSantis narrative would lump J.D. Vance into the problem. And, you know, we'll see whether we hear from Marco Rubio in the coming days. Everything I understand is that Rubio is actually not interested in running, even though everyone else is interested in him running. Ted Cruz, of course, we expect to hear from in this race. There's no question that I think he's going to throw his hat in the ring. But what will Cruz's message be? How will he define his lane vis-a-vis DeSantis, vis-a-vis Vance? But look, the race is on for the Republican nomination for a party that lost such a huge part of its coalition of voters in a very, very short amount of time. What is the president's reaction to that? If all of these candidates are coming forward being like, I know how I'm going to differentiate myself, say the president did bad stuff. How does Donald Trump actually deal with that? He's in office for the next two years. I always said this was going to be the biggest problem for J.D. Vance. How do you start running for president without making your boss feel like he's a lame duck? Because if he feels like he's a lame duck, he's going to lash out. And if he feels like you're the one making him a lame duck, he's going to lash out at you. And J.D. Vance has no path to the nomination if he loses Donald Trump's support. Like that's the one voter you cannot turn off is the president. You can't lose the audience of one. Vice President Vance says the reason Republicans lost last night was the war in Iran. Well, I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term. And probably that's probably true. Again, you see J.D. Vance picking the Iran war. It's something publicly he had already separated from the president on, so it's not going to anger the president more. But look, it's not going to be sufficient. And how J.D. Vance plans to do that, yet to be seen whether it can be done. Or, you know, you don't have to outrun the bear. You just have to outrun the other guy. If J.D. Vance can focus the president's negative lame duck attention on DeSantis. Oh, right. Say, those guys are really out to get you. I'm not. That's right. I'm not the problem. But the president has already been saying, like, it's because I wasn't on the ballot. Which is weird to me because he told people to act as if he was on the ballot. He, like, literally connected himself to these candidates and, by the way. He recruited several of these high-profile candidates that had terrible losses. Can he separate himself from what just happened? No. Look, here's the record of Donald Trump. He has won two presidential races where he is the challenger, where there is an incumbent that people are unhappy with. He has not won anything when he is governing. When he's in charge, people are mad about it. They do not think he is competent at it. And there's very little evidence that he is. So, yes, he wins when he's on the ballot, except that one time when he was actually running things and he was on the ballot. So he is an excellent negative campaigner. Look at those guys. They're the problem. Elect me. I will change things. And again, it's Iran. It's the tariffs. It's also the total lack of focus on anything people cared about. And instead, his closing argument was at the reflecting pool, Brad. He came out the other day and said it was, I think, 20 something minutes before he actually got to the campaign itself. Last question, Sarah. What happens now sort of functionally for the party? Like, are there things that we are going to see that we would not have seen pre-election that you could imagine happening now? I know you covered the Supreme Court. Are we going to start seeing retirements? I mean, what happens? No, I don't think so. But you have such a shrunken pool of GOP elected leaders in this party. You know, do you end up with the California Republican Party where there's so few people? They become so sort of outside the mainstream of being able to win elections. What does it look like when Texas has a whole bunch of people running the state who never thought they would win and who nobody was really vying for those nominations on the Democratic side, for instance? Let me just give you one example. The Texas Solicitor General position that was held by Ted Cruz, for instance, Fifth Circuit Judge James Ho and my husband, in full disclosure. That was the state and the position that put together state coalitions to sue Democratic presidents when they held the White House through the Obama administration and the Biden administration. That's gone now. So Republicans don't even have the infrastructure that they once had. All the stuff you would do to challenge the Democrats. Like those jobs don't even belong to you now. Yes, it's, you know, in a war, for instance, it's bad when, you know, you lose your position. But it's catastrophic when not only do you lose the cannons, but you give the working cannons to the other side. And that's what just happened in a lot of these red states this week. Absolutely fascinating. Although then it makes you wonder, like, do Democrats in some of these states become the dog that caught the fire engine? 100%. What happens now that you've actually got to govern in a state where you're like, I didn't actually think we would have to work together or do things together. All right. Sarah Isger, really helpful insight. Thank you so much. Thank you. Next up on Start Here, if your party was unpopular enough to lose all those congressional seats, good luck staying in charge of your congressional caucus anymore. The leadership shake up at the Capitol after the break. This show is sponsored by Quince. 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And when Quince asks where you heard about them, make sure to tell them it was start here. That is the best way to support the show. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Can you think of an unwritten rule for the holiday season you wish you could rewrite? Maybe it's the pressure to travel home and visit family or the expectation you'll decorate your house better than anyone else on the block. Even if you're not feeling the holiday cheer. Or maybe it's the burden to get everyone in your life that perfect gift. Whatever unwritten rule is getting you down, it's a good time of year to explore what's making you feel that way. And you can do that with therapy. BetterHelp is a convenient way to access therapy online and talk about whatever's on your mind. Their therapists are licensed, experienced professionals. They're trained to help. And now insurance options may be available nationwide. With insurance, many members pay $15 or less. Some pay zero. 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Republicans are licking their wounds here. And we heard from sources who told us early yesterday, and then it ended up being confirmed by Mike Johnson's office, that Johnson will not seek a role in House Republican leadership come the next Congress. I look forward to continuing the fight with my colleagues in the 120th Congress. Republicans will not be deterred by the outcome of one election. He's not going to try to run for Minority Leader. Every single time you get leadership, you have to run amongst your members. Hakeem Jeffries is going to have to do the same to be the presumptive Speaker of the House, although. It's not expected he's going to get any kind of a robust challenge. But Mike Johnson would have had to do that. Republicans had a really bad night on Tuesday night. To every American disappointed by tonight's results, I mean, I'm disappointed too, but we are never discouraged. There's blame being kind of cast all around. He's going to take a step back. His staff says that he will continue serving as a member of the United States House of Representatives, but now there is an ongoing inter-Republican fight about who's going to replace him as the top Republican in the House. Is that Steve Scalise, the number two Republican in the House, who's been in that role for a long time? You might have heard of Steve Scalise. The Democrats want to take us to a socialist place where they're advocating for open borders again. Or Jim Jordan, another Republican you might have heard of, the current chair of the Judiciary Committee, a close ally of President Trump's. Democrats have been going after President Trump, for 10 years, for a decade. And the country should never, ever forget what they did. They're going to duke it out, and others could get in this race, too, for who's going to be the top Republican in the House leading the minority. Yeah, I was going to say, Jim Jordan we've heard of before, but often it's kind of like a pain in the side of some of these leadership, these more centrist leadership figures. I mean, what does that sort of, if Jim Jordan's in the running, what does that sort of portend for what the Republican Party could look like when they're in the minority? It's interesting. The minority leader figure, is often used as this foil against the majority. They are there to put up a fight. Sometimes that's to the sitting president and the majority. That was Hakeem Jeffries, right? He was there to put up a fight against Mike Johnson and Donald Trump. Donald Trump and Republicans have failed the American people. This is a reckless war of choice in Iran. In other cases, if your party's in the White House, but you don't control the House, then you're there to put up a fight against the majority. Think about Kevin McCarthy versus Nancy, Pelosi in those last two years of President Trump's first term. And so you do need a fighter in that role, regardless of which party you're in. And you need someone who is interested, of course, in taking back the majority, who's a tactician, who is a campaigner. And Hakeem Jeffries is a little bit of both. He's probably more comfortable as a campaigner than he is as a fighter. But he's certainly a tactician. He proved that the other night, obviously. And so Republicans are going to have to see who in their ranks is a fighter. And who can help them take back, in theory, the majority come 2028. Who do they have faith in to do that? Well, and you mentioned Hakeem Jeffries becoming speaker. Probably that's what we're assuming. Doesn't seem to be a big challenge at the moment. And that will make him the first black speaker in the nation's history. I don't think that's been talked about nearly enough because of how many other things are going on here. But I guess what will actually happen under a Jeffries speakership? Like, what should we be expecting from this democratically controlled Congress? First, that's a history making moment. Brad, and I've asked Hakeem Jeffries about that a couple of times. Just a few days ago was the last time I asked him. Do you think about the history of that? I certainly don't think about the history of it. We're focused right now on running through the finish line to get to November 3rd. That was, of course, before they had formally taken the majority. I'd be curious to hear what he says now and in the coming months as it crystallizes more and more on the practical. Democrats have said their day one priority is, of course, to try to make good on these promises they made the campaign trail to lower the cost of living. Hakeem Jeffries told me a few days back, and then he reiterated again in a press conference the day after the election results came in, saying that their day one priority is lowering the cost of living. That includes health care costs. Those expired Obamacare tax credits is a good example of that. Also trying to lower the price of gas and groceries. And we need to stop the Trump tariffs that have increased costs on everyday Americans by thousands of dollars per year. But the question here is, Brad, can Democrats really pull this off? Because Democrats have been running on these kind of dual messages, affordability and accountability. That's what they say on the trail, affordability and accountability, those two A's. And the question is, if they dive too deep into the accountability, which would be investigations into President Trump, his administration, top administration officials on down, does that suck up all the oxygen? Right. And because they're in charge of and because they're in charge. They're in charge of committees. They get to decide whenever we want to have a hearing. We want to call in somebody for questioning. They can do that whenever they want. Right. Correct. They issue the subpoenas. They conduct the direction of these investigations. And a lot of this work they've been working on behind the scenes, hoping and expecting that they would take the majority. They're going to start rolling it out come January. You're facing calls within your own caucus to impeach him. I haven't had a single member of the House Democratic Caucus talk to me about impeachment. But if they spend too much time. Energy and oxygen on these investigations, can they also balance these legislative priorities of theirs that they've promised Americans they're going to deliver on about affordability? And obviously, there's one more thing here, which is, yes, Democrats have control of the House and the Senate, unified opposition in Congress against President Trump. By the way, the first time he's ever experienced that Republicans had the Senate when Trump lost the House in twenty eighteen. But also, even if they get bills out of both those chambers, the president can, of course, still veto them. I'll get along probably with the Democrats unless they want to be destructive. But if the power of the veto, so if we don't like what they're doing and they don't have a veto proof majority, they don't have the number of seats they would need to override the president's veto without Republican votes. So they would need to work with President Trump in theory to get some of this stuff actually over the goal line and make it law. I asked Chuck Schumer, the minority leader in the Senate now poised to become the majority leader in that chamber now. Yet again, come January, can he work with President Trump? We are going to work hard to drive costs down with the president or without him, period. He didn't say directly that he can, but he didn't say directly that he can't. All right. So we'll see what happens. Also, with both these leaders now, they'll have sizable majorities. But every time your party comes into power, it's sometimes also when different wings of your party start kind of making noise. And we'll see how King Jeffries and Chuck Schumer corral their members. All right. J. O'Brien in the new. Arrow over Capitol Hill. Thank you. Thank you, Brad. OK, one more quick break. When we come back, when I hear local ballot measures, I think about boring municipal bonds, not these. One last thing is next. Today, I want to tell you about our friends at Lug. If you're traveling this season, whether you're seeing family or catching some sun in a tropical destination, Lug can help you and your essentials get everywhere you need to go. Lug makes sturdy, premium quality, hard sided wheelie bags for all kinds of travel. The hard shell means your stuff stays protected no matter what. No more worrying that your souvenirs will get destroyed when your bag inevitably gets tossed around by the ground crew. 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Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states. And one last thing. It is all about the candidates, except when there is not a candidate on the ballot. This week also brought us ballot measures across the country, which in my mind are often just as interesting because there are no personalities at play. There are no speeches. It's just the text, the idea. Do you agree with it or not? And these results can often give you even clearer insight into how your fellow Americans are thinking. It's one of our rights. It's a civic duty. And I just, you know, if you think your voice doesn't matter, that's not true. This is really a battle for the soul of Virginia. For instance, Virginia and Nevada this week voted to enshrine access to abortion in their state constitutions, while Idaho voters opposed a similar measure. To be honest, I'm really disappointed and disgusted to see this on the ballot in Washington state. I don't want any other girl to have to go. I want to go through what I went through. Several states held votes on gender in sports, with majorities in Arizona, Nebraska, and Washington state so far supporting a ban on athletes assigned male at birth from competing in girls' sports. More than 40 jurisdictions voted on whether to regulate the proliferation of data centers in their communities. And perhaps the most closely watched ballot measure of the night was in California, where voters had the chance to impose a one-time tax on people and trusts worth more than $5 billion, a wealth tax. You might not be surprised to know that those billionaires spent a lot of money fighting this. Hundreds of millions were pumped into ads over the last few months. But with 60% of the results in, a majority so far have agreed with them, voting no on Proposition 40. Then there are the measures a little further off the beaten path. You know how there are state flowers and state birds? Well, this year, Idaho voters were asked to pick a state gun. Hey, Idaho voters, Todd Achilles here with my first endorsement for the November 3rd election for Idaho State Gun, the M1 Garand. This was independent Senate candidate Todd Achilles using General George Patton's favorite weapon as a kind of running mate. Well, he lost his election on Tuesday and so did the M1. It's currently trailing the Winchester rifle model known as the 1873. Coloradans voted against an amendment that would have given them a constitutional right to hunt and fish. Critics say that could have upended hunting regulations as we know them. And speaking of animals, in Washington, D.C., voters did not get the chance to select a voting member of Congress. But that meant the single most controversial issue on the ballot was whether to ban foie gras. After months of political ads being shoved down Americans' throats, voters there saw to it that there is now one fewer type of force feeding moving forward. And a reminder, not all these votes are done being counted yet. In fact, that's going to be a story all of its own we'll be tracking all week. Remember earlier this year, there was the question about late arriving ballots in Mississippi. The U.S. Supreme Court said if someone puts their absentee ballot in the mail, before Election Day, it should count as long as it arrives in four or five days. How big could that be now with this race in Mississippi separated by 100 something votes? We will keep you updated throughout the day on ABC News Live. I'm Brad Milkey. See you tomorrow. With the Name Your Price tool, you tell them what you want to pay and they'll show you options that fit your budget. Price and coverage match limited by state law.