The Future Blockbusters Draft: The Directors, Actors, and IP That Will Define the Next Decade

This episode is presented by AMC Network. A new chapter in Anne Rice's Immortal Universe begins with AMC's The Vampire Lestot. Get a backstage pass to the iconic frontman who pace magazine calls a boi-inspired rocker that will have fans screaming. Don't miss the legendary vampire Lestot Delian CORE in his own electrifying rock saga. Experience the glory and darkness. Binge The Vampire Lestot only on AMC Plus. Learn more at AMCPlus.com. It is Monday, July 27th of all the discourse around the Odyssey and Chris Nolan this past week and a half. What's interesting to me is this question of whether filmmakers are the new intellectual properties. I raised this issue in my Puck newsletter and came to the conclusion that A-level IP is still A-level IP. I'd still rather own Spider-Man rights than the next film from any filmmaker, including Chris Nolan. I'd argue that the very top filmmakers are the new movie stars, a much more effective lure for fans than whoever is actually starring in the movie. After all, if I was a studio head or a top producer presented with the next Chris Nolan movie, I'd take that way before the next movie starring Leo DiCaprio or Michael B. Jordan or any of the stars that are supposedly filling theaters. Wouldn't you? That's today's show. When presented with the choice of any element, an actor, a filmmaker, a piece of IP, which would you choose first? Lucas Shaw is here. We're going to do one of our drafts, but this time it's a future blockbuster draft of sorts. We're each picking 10 elements, directors, actors or intellectual properties that we think will help us win the box office from now to the next 10 years. Got it? We will explain. Today is the first of a very special two-part episode, The Future Blockbuster Draft, from The Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is The Town. Okay, we are here with Lucas Shaw, our normal Monday guy. Lucas, this is a complicated draft, so I'm going to have to lay out some of the ground rules. Are you ready for this? I am. We've been debating them feverishly for the last night. I know. I don't like to bother you during the week with texts from the Craig and I or Covey discussing. Well, I deserve it because I like sort of proposed this, but then we had to figure out what it meant. Exactly. The drafts are hard. You got to really define your terms. So this is the future blockbuster drafts. So you and I are going to go back and forth, picking elements. These are things that we would want to have in our movies. We're only doing movies, no TV. We are picking a team for the next 10 years. So you're a studio chief and you're assembling your own Avengers and has instacates with our Pratt, previous sort of franchise IP, you can select individual characters or franchises like Spider-Man, but not all of Marvel, like Batman, but not all of DC. This is the first time we have compared properties IP with people, filmmakers, stars. No non-writing producers, you can pick a filmmaker who also produces and you get their producing projects, but we're not picking Amy Pascal or Jason Blum, Chris Melodondry, people who do not direct as well. Also their companies are quasi owned or partially owned by the studios, so they are out. We are going for the elements that you would assemble if you were assembling a film project. What would you want most? All right, understood. I'm there. We're going to go back and forth and then Craig is getting a butt lift this week. So he's out, producer Jesse is here and we will go back and forth and at the end Jesse will explain the teams and pick who he thinks will be the winner here. So you get the first pick. Okay, I think the first pick is obvious, at least to me, I'd still Spider-Man. God damn it. I thought you were going to pick some tour filmmaker, like there's nothing as dominant as Spider-Man. I know, yes, we're in this year where we are talking about, okay, there's new filmmaking talent. There's new IP that people are excited about. There's old IP that people are bored of. Spider-Man appears to be bulletproof. This new movie is looking like it's going to be the biggest movie of the year. You know, famous last words, I have it on my team for our box office draft, so maybe it won't be. But between that and the fact that they still have the animated franchise humming that is very popular, I just, I think Spider-Man remains the king of all of this and there's not really any argument against it. I totally agree. I think it is now the outlier amongst superheroes. Yeah, where most of the other superhero franchises have shown weakness and have questions around them, even Avengers and even Batman, if this Batman movie from Matt Reeves is ever going to happen. I think Batman is strong, but not, yeah, there's not like excitement around it in the same way that there is seems to be with Spider-Man or really any of the Marvel properties. Other than I guess Deadpool. Yeah, but they're heading on number four now. Yeah. So that's a challenge. Spider-Man and also it comes in two varieties. It comes in live action and animated and we're not even getting into this thin-off. So yeah, yes, agreed. So all right, that's a smart number one pick. My number one pick, I am also going to go with a franchise. I am going to take Mario Brothers. Interesting. Okay. So this second movie, the Galaxy movie was softer than the first. It still got to a billion. And there are spin-off possibilities. And we can set the parameter where however we want, but I believe that if there's a Princess Peach movie, it should count under Mario Brothers. Maybe Donkey Kong is separate because that was a game on its own and that would be a separate franchise. But there are going to be Mario Brothers movies every three years for the next 10 to 15 years. I'm going to put my money there. The question there is what lesson do they take from a drop-off of 30-ish percent from one to two? Do they just say that's normal? It happens with any franchise. Do they say we need to take a second and figure out, like, really wait for the third one? Because I do think one of the big discussions happening at all these studios right now is sort of what is the appropriate time off between properties where we don't exhaust people? Yeah, especially after minions. I mean, the feeling of universal is they went too soon with another minions movie and it really damaged the franchise. Yeah. And then the whole Moana debacle where they put the sequel out before the live-action remake and that was a problem. But that's pretty unique. I had Mario on the list. I did have it considerably further down in part because that drop-off from the one to two. Like, I don't know with some of these properties if there's just like so much pent-up enthusiasm for the first one. And then like, are they going to be able to sustain it across multiple movies? I do think with Mario, it's like it's something that isn't globally known and it's in the hands of someone in illumination and universal that has been pretty good at managing these franchises. I just think it's safe. I'm going to the safe pick. So for number one, but we're going to make some more interesting choices here. So what's your number two? This is where I'm already starting to deviate. So I'm taking Nolan number two. God damn it. You're doing my draft here. Well, those were my clear consensus first and second picks. I had Mario further down. I just think the clear winner among franchises and the most dependable director where everything that he touches turns to gold right now. I know that he's saying he needs to take years off after this. I'll believe that when I see it and also if that happens. You're just telling me who do I want to be in business with? I would take Chris for Nolan over any other non-spiderman individual franchise right now just because the consistency is there and there seems to be an audience for his movies. He's not picking things that on their face are like, yep, Oppenheimer, million people are going to show up to see this adult drama. Oh, yes, the Odyssey is an epic, but that movie, like the first bit of it, is kind of slow and his movies are more thoughtful than your average blockbuster. It just feels like he's entered a sweet spot and he's at the right age where I think he, because we're only doing 10 years, I think he's in his prime. He's in his prime. The next 10 years are still going to be really good. He may come to a point where he's more like Spielberg where it's hit and miss, but I think he's still in the sweet spot. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, that's over. Spielberg, Ridley Scott, those guys are heading out of their prime and they're still working, but they're not reliable. This guy is Annie Works and IMAX, which is the future, right? All the PLF, premium screens, he's just, he has Oppenheimer and Odyssey have now put him on another plane from all of the other directors with the possible exception of Jim Cameron, but he's just, you know, he's been in Pandora for 20 years, so we're just going to let him be. Okay. So, I'm in, for my number two, I'm also going to take a filmmaker. Okay. I'll take Ryan Kugler. Yeah. The reason I'm taking him is not just because he's had big success with sinners. I think he's in that Nolan pantheon where whatever he does is going to be considered event. He works pretty constantly, like he's got a lot of projects in the works right now and he produces as well. He's producing TV and X-Files, but he's also producing some other stuff and and then he's willing to work in franchises. He's doing black panther three next. I think that the director is co-leg-- is consensus number two choice. It was, you know, the vulture put out that list of the 100 most powerful directors. Powerful is a loaded word, but I do think that, - Yeah. - I have some issues with that list. - Yes. But the top five were pretty much what I would say. - I generally agree. And yes, the one two of Nolan Kugler with Nolan in a category of his own, I agree with. And yeah, I think the important thing about Ryan Kugler, which you identified is that he will, he is committed to making commercial movies, right? He doesn't want to make dumb movies. He is making, you know, there's a reason that sinners earned a bunch of awards nominations. And, but I think that he wants to make kind of movies that people go to the theater to see and has the same interest. Like Nolan is kind of a mentor to him in terms of formats and all that stuff. I'll be curious, I guess I'll be curious what he does. I don't know that his movies are outside of Black Panther, which we don't need to get the properties as part of it, are gonna be as big as some of the other franchises that I wanna take. - Maybe, but I'd bet on him. If I was a studio head or a producer, I'd be like, yes, he's on my team. And the guy's, he's 40 years old. Yeah, he's talking about entering your prime. - Yeah, no, I can't quibble with it. - Okay. Number three, so don't piss me off here. I might piss you off. (laughing) I am a big believer that the new nostalgia is late '90s and early 2000s. And that the movies from that period are what we're seeing work. We saw it with Delaware's Prada. I think we're gonna see it later this year with Falkers. So you're picking American Pie. You know, I know how much that movie means to you and that a lot. I think you and I are, I'll be curious for our box office draft for next year 'cause I think you and I are generally in alignment about what one of the biggest movies will be. Oh, damn it. And so I actually have a tie of the Souch IP, but because I know you're high on this one, I need to get on this one before you take it. And so I'm gonna, I'm gonna take Shrek. - So you're taking Shrek and with Shrek, Shrek 5 coming out next year, you also get the Donkey movie that they have announced with Eddie Murphy. I'm less convinced than about a Donkey movie. - Oh, really? Oh, I think it's gonna be big. - I think it'll work, but there's, there is certainly risk with it. The question I have for you, because I think it's relevant to this same with sort of like Toy Story and Leelow and some of these other movies, is there's, I think there's no question that Shrek 5 is gonna be huge, right? There's just gonna be like both young kids who grew up watching them who get to see it in theaters for the first time and they're gonna be parents who grew up on it the first time around who are excited about it. It sort of has perfect cross generational awareness. Is there an appetite to quickly follow up five with more movies and will there be similar interest? Sort of like with Mario, right? Are you gonna see it sustain? - Yeah, no, they've got a 10 year plan. - Okay. - They've got a 10 year plan at DreamWorks and Universal and they've got Chris Melodondri at Illumination helping out like the Donkey movie announcement was not an accident. This is gonna, they've got a storyline that's them projecting we know what we're doing. We're gonna, okay. I'm just glad I'm making you envious one after another. I gotta be doing something, right? - You really are. It's bad enough that I'm losing this year's draft. Now you've got three, you've got Spider-Man, Nolan and Shrek. I'll be very curious 'cause the next two I wanna take in my ranking, I don't know that you're gonna go for. One of them I know you're not. One of them you might. For number three, I think I'm gonna go Batman. Okay. Just because they're safety in Batman. We know even though Matt Reeves is now attached to this, there's going to be in the next 10 years, at least two to three Batman movies, and they're all gonna hit. That's a lot safer to me than I was gonna pick Minecraft, to be honest. And yes, I think the next Minecraft movie will be big, but if it sucks, then where does that, yeah, where do you go? Then maybe it's over. But I think Batman, even if it sucks, you can always reboot Batman. And there's always some hot new filmmaker that will come in and have a spin on Batman. Yeah. So I think I'm gonna go with that. Batman feels it is the most safe of the DC properties. It is not Superman or Supergirl. Basically none of the movies have failed. Oh God no. You're not picking Clayface is your next choice? I'm not. I actually have something that I think would surprise you, but I don't actually know enough about what the plans are for it. So I'm gonna go with it in a different direction. Minecraft is up there, but I actually have more confidence in Demon Slayer than I do in Minecraft. Demon Slayer. Demon Slayer. Not K-pop Demon Hunters, which is further down on my list. Yeah, I will get there. Yeah. Demon Slayer for those unfamiliar, I think I picked this in a previous one and you're like, what are you doing? I don't sound like that, but okay. It is the both popular anime manga franchise right now. If you look at the highest grossing movies, I believe last year it was top five I think. Yeah, but how many of there have been? Have there already been like four? No, there are gonna be there at least two more coming. Okay, but they have done previous Demon Slayer movies. Sure, who cares? They have done how many previous Batman movies have they made? I know, but what's the ceiling on a Demon Slayer movie? The last movie made $793 million worldwide. Okay. That's good. But not a billion? Not a billion. You're correct. It might not be a billion. Batman might have higher potential. I just, we're talking about the future and I think anime is something with real global appeal that is only getting bigger. And I think the, the, it is especially XUS. It is a huge property. And I just, if I'm talking about what I want, I've got Spider-Man, which is the biggest superhero. I've got Nolan, who's the best director. I've got Trek, which I think is gonna be the next big kids movie. And I've got Demon Slayer, which is sort of like hot international IP. And I'm rolling. That's all I have to say. Yeah, you're definitely, your list is cooler than mine. For sure. Mine's safe and a little older. But yeah, that, so you're essentially betting on anime. Yeah, what's smart? I think if I had, if you had to pick one anime franchise, it would be that one. Not Ni, Niha, or what's the Chinese movie that grows $2 billion? Nisha? Nisha? No, I'm not, I'm not trusting, I'm not trusting Chinese movies. That is not happening. You're not? No. This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, campaigns slow down, insights get buried, and opportunities get missed. That's why Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales, using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result, less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. To learn more, check out Accenture.com/spotify. OK, so my four, yeah, I'm taking Frozen. Oh, oh, OK. Frozen is massive. We know Frozen 3 and Frozen 4 are coming because they essentially booted Jennifer Lee out of her role running Disney Animation to go and make these movies. They've signed up all the cast. They've got the rights in order. There will be Frozen 3, 4, 5, the parks are just starting to get the IP into them. And this is going to be that in Moana. I thought about taking Moana, even though just had a miss. But Moana 3 is coming. I just think Frozen 3 is further down the road. And it will be massive for the next decade. This is the first one where I probably overthought it. And you picked the meat and potatoes picked that is the right pick. I think it's because there hasn't been a Frozen movie in a little while. And that's good. Yes, no, it is good. And I forget, was there a drop off between 1 and 2? No. No. 2 outgrossed 1. I think Frozen is a safe and great choice. I have no notes. And I say this as the father of a young boy who has no interest in Frozen. It's still the biggest property for young girls. That in Moana. I know. I think Frozen is good. Frozen is-- Listen, we have not picked any Disney franchise so far. Disney is the franchise company. How is that possible? This is the first Disney franchise we've picked. Well, Spider-Man technically Disney-- I did think about that. And was I really going to take two Sony movies before I took anything else? And so I probably should have thought better of it, knowing that you would not take Demon Slayer in your next four picks. And I was not going to pick Demon Slayer. You could have sat on it. I could have just sat on it and taken Frozen. You could take Moana right now? We could do 50 of these, and I would not take Moana. No. You think Moana is over? I don't think Moana is over. You clearly have not gone trick or treating with a bunch of seven-year-olds. But if we're talking about what is the IP that feels fresh, that people are going to be excited about in the next 10 years, I just-- Moana is not on my list. I think that they really over did it. And they now have to go back to the drawing board. And it's going to be a little while before they can do one of those movies. Well, Moana 3 is in the works. So I think by 28, 29. They'll have them one or three. Yeah, and and it'll probably do fine But unless it's great. I feel like you're you're risking diminishing returns with that I could be wrong and let me guess you're not picking Dwayne the rock Johnson as one of your elements that you'd want Dwayne the rock Johnson is not one of my elements I'm not prepared to say that he's box office poison, but he's he's headed that direction He's not poison, but he's not reliable. I'm gonna really roll the dice here So this is your number five pick. It's not like track because there's not an a movie that is on the calendar But a franchise that I think was popular that I trust people to bring back I think Disney's gonna figure out what to do with X-Men you're picking X-Men. Yeah Wow, okay, and we know they are planted in Avengers Doomsday and there are X-Men or mysterious maybe X-Men movie dates on the calendar I think that I think that there's there is going to be excitement for new X-Men movies Even after seven eight previous movies. Yeah, but when is the last one? The one that came out in COVID that was terrible and they dumped I'm not counting that and I guess deadpool and Wolverine counts because Wolverines and the X-Men Deadpool Wolverine kind accounts Yeah, if if I'm the Marvel folks and I'm looking at like where there is where there are green shoots in that X-Men It's something that they got from Fox that was very reliable when it was at Fox and that there other than the Deadpool movies There hasn't really been a good X-Men movie in a long time. Yeah, it's an appealing property I've always liked those movies, but I'm a I'm a believer I Realize I might be out on a ledge here. That is a risky pick, but I I can support that all right my number five pick I'm going with a person this time. I was gonna I thought about this. I'll be curious who your person is And it's not one of the directors on the vulture list I'm going with Michael B. Jordan. Damn. That was I thought about it and I should probably should have done it. This guy has done He's checked every box at this point. He is proving he can open a movie with sinners He's done IP with Creed and Black Panther. He has Started directing he directed Creed 3 and it has Thomas Crown affair opening next year He won a freaking Oscar and he is consistently underrated when it comes to his Lure for audiences. I think if I'm betting on a star for the next 10 years I'm picking him over Shalame over Zendaya over Leo because not only is he a star He's also a filmmaker. He can direct so you get all of that as you get with him Yeah, I don't think it's close. You think I mean, I think it is close with with Zendaya If if the rumors are true and she's gonna do born movies and she has a more you know Commercial sensibility she got the drama to over a hundred million that movie does not make 20 million without her I hear you. I just think that he is he has the track record proven and And as a as a director producer actor and was definitely in my In my top 10 so you support that as well. Yeah, I mean, I think no not maybe not as high as five no No, no, no, I that was I was honestly debating between him and X-Men and I should have done that because you wouldn't have taken X-Men No, I wouldn't have again. I think that he is Yeah, he is he is the movie star that you want What is this age? He's about to be he's about to be 40 I think and also also if I get him I Don't care about you having Googler because they're gonna keep collaborating and so I get a piece of that He'll be 40 in February. Yeah, so he and Googler I know I have Googlers well So I guess I'm doubling up on their movies they make together, but that's okay. That's a good thing. I can count them twice. Yeah All right, so we are now at five and five we are going to take a break and end this episode and come back tomorrow for part two of the Blockbuster. What are we calling this the future blockbuster draft the future blockbuster draft? Yes Okay, we are back with the call sheet Craig is here. He's back from his medical tourism the nose looks great the forehead looks amazing Thank you. I asked I said give me the an half away. You got it. It's tasteful. Thank you most most important. It's tasteful. Yeah, looks natural You could credibly play a warrior in BC times All right, so big news while you were gone Paramount has delayed the Warner Mount merger the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery until at least June of next year or When there is a resolution on the anti-trust claims this was the result of a gigantic negotiation between Paramount and California in the States that are suing They essentially made the determination that they were going to lose the battle for the preliminary injunction in this case Okay, which would have put a pause on the deal anyways and they felt that this judge was leaning towards not even allowing them to produce Evidence at this trial at this little mini trial for the preliminary injunction So they agreed to keep the delay intact and they will have a trial on the merits Sometime later this year maybe or early next year Paramount wants November the states want in 2027 and that's when they will get to fully Litigate the case because there was a 28-day restraining order granted right a pause it was a temporary restraining order Yes, and so Paramount said actually we're nervous about losing that so we actually would like more time to prepare a better Arguments that we can potentially win long term. It wasn't even that it was that there's a second Issue with the preliminary injunction the temporary restraining order just pauses it temporarily the preliminary injunction would have paused the litigation through the entirety Of the case until the end and that could have been disastrous if they lost it now They would have appealed and they would have gotten up to the 9th Circuit potentially even higher but they wouldn't have been able potentially to Submit evidence and depose people and have all these this factual stuff that they believe is strong for their case That's up to the judge and whether to allow that and she refused to say whether she was going to allow that kind of evidence So they basically threw up their hands and said we'd rather just go to a mini trial You know both sides are spinning this as being good for them. Yes, it's a setback for Paramount They wanted this deal to close. They thought that they could ran this through with the Trump administration The other Bodies around the world have all signed off on this and they did not expect the political blowback to be this much Where the states would get involved these are all blue states. So yes, it is politically motivated I don't think the the the Ellison side has has any Recourse here because they created the political situation. They went all in on Donald Trump and then Predictively the Democrats fought back and the only way that they knew how which was via the blue state attorneys general But this is a setback and now we'll have to wait to see whether this deal is going to happen until the outcome of this trial So Paramount wants a November trial. Bonta said he wants a January start date Is that a midterms election thing? What what's the reasoning behind that? They just feel that the sooner the better on Paramount side and they want to be able to prepare the case and depose all of the witnesses and gather all the evidence And that was sort of the problem with the preliminary injunction hearing is that it was going to happen so soon That they weren't going to be able to do any of this fact finding sure by the way bonta hasn't said January He just said sometime in 2027 So he's holding out for as long in the future as possible because it gives him leverage because remember There's this 650 million dollar a quarter ticking fee That Paramount has to pay to Warner Brothers to as this thing drags on So how let's say like I believe the journal said that he favors a January date bonta But So how many 650 million fees would they incur by January is it one or two? It's it's a quarter So it starts October 1st So the fourth quarter is October through January so that's 650 million there if it goes into the first quarter of 2027 That's another 650 and I mean this is a complete disaster if this gets blocked because They would then owe seven billion dollars to Warner Discovery for a breakup fee and they already gave two billion to Netflix 2.8 So yeah, that would be very costly net listen Some people think that the Ellicins will walk away from this yeah, I don't believe they will okay I was gonna ask you because you are you from the beginning thought Paramount was gonna win was gonna get Warner Brothers even when Netflix Was was in the mix do you still believe that it will close in Paramount will get Warner Brothers? I'm not prepared to say with with definitive certainty that they're going to win on the merits of this case What I can say is that they will not back down That I don't believe the Ellicins are just gonna say you know what the regulatory hurdles here are not what we expected We're gonna be fine with Paramount go go with God, you know, sell to Netflix sell to whoever you want That's not that's not their mo here. They are gonna go go go until the Supreme Court either decides in their favor Tell them to get lost or declines to take the case do you believe some people think that you know They 100 plus billion dollars that they're gonna invest to make this merger that if Paramount just spent that a fraction of that money Unjust improving Paramount and their app and their and their movies that They could be a competitor that they claim they need Warner Brothers to be do you believe in that or is the IP that they're getting from Warner Brothers that important Maybe that's essentially the Netflix argument. That's what Netflix does. Is they spend, spend, spend to be competitive, they had the first mover advantage. And now look at what Netflix is trying to do. They've been looking at buying a studio because they have recognized that they need the IP of a studio. So I don't know if that argument holds water. I think it would be a great Harvard Business School study someday. Can you build a competitor with a hundred billion rather than buying one? But they've decided they want to buy one. They have this money all lined up to do so. We've got to watch the Oracle stock too. If the Oracle stock keeps tanking, that puts Larry Ellison's involvement here in a little bit more of a pickle because he's still the 10th richest man in the world or whatever he is today. So I don't think that the money is going away. But it becomes a much bigger bite at his fortune if his stock is not doing well. So a lot to process here. We're going to be talking about this for months. And while this is in limbo, Paramount, Warner Brothers can't make any major moves. They kind of just have to wait, which hurts them, right? They say it's business as usual. But I agree. It's in limbo. They're not-- listen, Warner Discovery sued Amazon on Friday for poaching a marketing executive. And they did that to send a message to all the other employees that are just sitting there at Warner Discovery saying, guys, what's going on here? I'm getting offers from other companies. I might be under contract. But I don't want to sit around for two years while you litigate the deal. I want to build my career. And basically, that was a warning shot to them saying, don't you dare, we will sue. So I don't know. Bad situation here all around. But a victory for the anti-merger people and a setback for Paramount. But ultimately, it's all going to come down to what this judge decides on the merits of the case and what the nine circuit does on appeal. Unless there's a settlement. There could be a settlement tomorrow. But it doesn't sound like Rob Bonta's in the settling mood right now. Sure. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horobak. All right, there's Jesse Lopez and Stephanie O'Sanchez. And I want to thank you. We'll see you one more time. [MUSIC PLAYING]